Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (NASDAQ: BND)

에 대한 최신 뉴스 Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (NASDAQ:BND)

Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF

Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Float Adjusted Index measures the performance of a wide spectrum of public, investment-grade, taxable, fixed income securities in the United States-including government, corporate, and international dollar-denominated bonds, as well as mortgage-backed and asset-backed securities-all with maturities of more than 1 year. All of its investments will be selected through the sampling process, and at least 80% of its assets will be invested in bonds held in the index.

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Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF(NYSE:VOO)가 올해 연간 유입액 1,000억 달러를 돌파하며 모든 ETF 역사상 가장 높은 수치를 기록했다. ETF.com의 데이터에 따르면, 이 펀드는 투자자들로부터 1,010억 7천만 달러의 신규 자금을 유치했으며, 이는 두 번째로 가까운 경쟁자인 iShares Core S&amp;P 500 ETF(NYSE:IVV)의 592억 달러와 SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust(NYSE:SPY)의 229억 달러를 합친 것보다도 많다.

뱅가드의 S&amp;P 500 ETF는 2024년에 1,000억 달러 유입 기록: SPY의 1위 자리에 위협?

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폭발적인 ETF들의 성장이 금융 환경을 재편하고 있으며, 운용 자산이 현재 15조 달러의 이정표에 가까워지고 있다. 최근 분석에서 JP모건의 전략가 니콜라오스 파니기르초글로(Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou)는 이러한 엄청난 변화의 의미를 자세히 조사하면서 ETF가 투자자 행동, 유동성 패턴 및 심지어 시장 위험까지도 어떻게 재정의하고 있는지를 조명했다.

ETF들이 15조 달러에 가까워지며 미국 시장을 재편하는 10가지 방법

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iShares Trust Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund

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안정성을 위해 채권 및 채권 ETF를 찾는 투자자들은 도널드 트럼프 대통령 당선인의 관세 접근 방식으로 인해 수익률 상승 압박을 가할 수 있으므로 변동성이 높아질 수 있다.

연준의 금리 인하와 트럼프의 재정 정책이 충돌하면서 채권 ETF가 하락

FlexShares Core Select Bond Fund

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NEOS ETF Trust NEOS Enhanced Income Aggregate Bond ETF

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Vanguard Total World Bond ETF

Vanguard Total International Bond ETF

Stock and ETF investors, take note. <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/peter-schiff">Peter Schiff </a>sees trouble ahead and he's not mincing words. The renowned investor warns that the government and financial media are &#8220;making the same mistake again&#8221; as they did before the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, Schiff wrote <a href="https://x.com/PeterSchiff/status/1906690596640600283">on</a> X.
The culprit this time? A toxic mix of tariffs, rising interest rates and misguided Federal Reserve policies that could unleash an economic firestorm.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Tariffs: A Recipe For Inflation, Rate Hikes</h2>
Schiff argues that tariffs won't just impact trade &#8211; they'll send shockwaves through the economy. &#8220;Tariffs mean fewer goods will come into the country, and fewer dollars will go out. More money chasing fewer goods means higher domestic prices. This is an economic certainty,&#8221; he said.
For investors, that translates to higher inflation, a weaker consumer and pressure on corporate margins.
But it doesn't stop there. &#8220;Lower trade deficits will result in fewer dollars being recycled into U.S. bonds, sending long-term interest rates higher.&#8221; With higher rates, borrowing costs rise for businesses and consumers alike, slowing growth and putting pressure on stocks—especially high-flying tech names.
Read Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/03/44309742/recession-watch-small-caps-sound-the-alarm-but-credit-markets-shrug">Recession Watch: Small Caps Sound The Alarm, But Credit Markets Shrug</a>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Fed To The Rescue? Not So Fast</h2>
Schiff sees the Federal Reserve making the wrong move when the economy starts showing signs of strain. &#8220;The Fed will respond to this &#8216;unexpected&#8217; economic weakness with rate cuts, ignoring the surge in consumer prices as a transitory effect of tariffs.&#8221; 
Translation? Inflation won't just persist &#8211; it could spiral. And if the Fed resorts to quantitative easing (QE) again, Schiff warns, &#8220;throwing gasoline on an already burning inflation fire&#8221; could create a crisis far worse than 1970s-style stagflation.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">What It Means For Investors</h2>
If Schiff's prediction plays out, stock investors should brace for turbulence. High-growth and rate-sensitive sectors like technology, as tracked by the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>) and the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLK#NYSE">XLK</a>), could face pressure. On the other hand, inflation-resistant assets &#8211; such as:
Commodities, as tracked by the Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DBC#NYSE">DBC</a>); Gold, as tracked by the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>), and select energy stocks &#8211; may become safe havens.
Bond investors and those invested in popular Treasury tracking ETFs such as iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>), the Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BND#NASDAQ">BND</a>) and the iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AGG#NYSE">AGG</a>) beware: rising long-term rates could send Treasury prices tumbling.
Meanwhile, a &#8220;weaker dollar and larger budget deficits&#8221; could mean international ETFs and hard assets outperform U.S. equities.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Is This The Next 2008?</h2>
Schiff isn't predicting a simple market correction &#8211; he's warning of something much worse. &#8220;This will not be 1970s-style stagflation. It will be something much worse.&#8221; 
If history is about to repeat itself, as he suggests, investors who ignore the warning signs could be caught in the fire. The question is: Are you ready?
Read Next: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/03/44456554/trade-wars-fed-moves-and-a-40-recession-risk-is-your-portfolio-ready">Trade Wars, Fed Moves And A 40% Recession Risk &#8211; Is Your Portfolio Ready?</a></li>
</ul>
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PowerShares DBmmodity Index Optimum Yield Diversified Fund

Peter Schiff Sounds The Alarm: 'Same Mistake Again' Could Trigger Economic Firestorm

In today&#8217;s fast-paced world, many want to build wealth and achieve long-term financial <a href="https://in.benzinga.com/personal-finance/25/03/44146342/charlie-munger-said-he-was-passionate-about-getting-rich-but-not-because-i-wanted-ferraris-i-wanted-the-independence">independence</a>. Countless people dream of financially securing their future, and for many, that path is through investments in the stock market.
Yet, the path to financial independence is rarely straightforward, especially for those starting to invest later in life and have little to no knowledge of the <a href="https://in.benzinga.com/personal-finance/25/03/44287485/peter-lynch-said-theres-always-something-to-worry-about-but-success-in-the-stock-market-depends-on-your-stomach-not-the-brain">stock market</a>, as is the case of one Reddit user.
The individual, a 38-year-old, shared his concerns in a Reddit community of investors. He said that he recently came across a substantial amount of money–$750,000 in cash–but has no other assets such as a house, no pension, and no investments.
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<li>Dogecoin millionaires are increasing –<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/money/dogecoin-millionaires"> investors with $1M+ in DOGE revealed!</a></li>
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The poster is focused on long-term growth and is seeking advice on how to invest his newly acquired money wisely. He is also cautious about the current market volatility and is wondering whether he should wait a few weeks before he starts investing, whether to go for a dollar-cost average approach and if other options beyond ETFs would suit his goals.
&#8220;I&#8217;m 38 years old with newly acquired $750,000 in cash. How should I invest? My goal is long-term growth. Should I wait a few more weeks? When [dollar-cost averaging]–what amounts and frequency should I shoot for? And advice for investments beyond ETFs given the volatility at the moment?&#8221; he asked.
Trending: Can you guess how many retire with a $5,000,000 nest egg? <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/money/5mil-nest-egg-adv">The percentage may shock you</a>.
The Reddit community has responded to the 38-year-old&#8217;s post with insights and advice, so let&#8217;s dive deeper into the comments to find out what the community has suggested.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">How to Invest $750,000? Reddit Community Shares Insights</h2>
Use Dollar-Cost Averaging and Invest in ETFs
One of the most common suggestions was to use dollar-cost averaging to invest in ETFs, especially those tracking global and U.S. markets.
&#8220;Definitely [dollar-cost averaging] over a year or two. You should buy world ETFs, U.S. ETFs, and 20% bonds,&#8221; a comment says.
One Redditor suggested specific ETFs he thinks would grow the poster&#8217;s money in the long run.
&#8220;[Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/voo#NYSE">VOO</a>)] or [Vanguard S&amp;P 500 Growth ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/voog#NYSE">VOOG</a>)], [Vanguard Information Technology ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/vgt#NYSE">VGT</a>)] or [Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/xlk#NYSE">XLK</a>)], [Vanguard Total World Stock ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/vt#NYSE">VT</a>)] or [Vanguard Total International Stock ETF (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/vxus#NASDAQ">VXUS</a>)],&#8221; he said.
A commenter pointed out he has a more structured approach to dollar-cost averaging with a focus on a few particular ETFs.
&#8220;Looking forward to the responses as I'm currently sitting in [iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/sgov#NYSE">SGOV</a>)]. My plan is to ladder into [iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ibit#NYSE">IBIT</a>)], VT, and VOO. I will do bi-weekly buys starting in June,&#8221; he wrote.
A Reddit user suggested a mix of global equity exposure and bonds for a diversified portfolio.
&#8220;VT 70%, [Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/bnd#NASDAQ">BND</a>)] 30%. Increase BND 10% for each 10 years of your age from now on. Good luck to you,&#8221; the user said.
&#8220;VT, [Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/schd#NYSE">SCHD</a>)], [iShares Core Dividend Growth ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/dgro#NYSE">DGRO</a>)], [Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/qqqm#NASDAQ">QQQM</a>)], [JPMorgan Nasdaq Equity Premium Income ETF (NASDAQ: JEPQ]. SGOV or [Vanguard Treasury Money Market Fund (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/vusxx#NASDAQ">VUSXX</a>)] for other opportunities,&#8221; a comment reads.
One user mentioned a global stock market ETF but agreed that VXUS is also a good choice.
&#8220;I like [SPDR Portfolio MSCI Global Stock Market ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/spgm#NYSE">SPGM</a>)], but VXUS is good as well,&#8221; a comment reads.
See Also: If there was a new fund backed by Jeff Bezos offering a <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/money/arrived-private-credit-fund">7-9% target yield with monthly dividends would you invest in it</a>?
Don&#8217;t Time the Market
Many Redditors cautioned against market timing, with some even predicting what they think the new investor will do after investing.
&#8220;Imagine hoarding $750,000 during a 15-year bull market, to only now considering investing it. The market is guaranteed to drop 20% starting the day after the OP invests it. And someone new to investing will get emotional about the 20% drop and sell at the bottom, where it will immediately go on a 5-year bull run again,&#8221; a commenter wrote.
&#8220;Man, you got $750,000 and you didn't put a cent of that into the S&amp;P 500 over the last 5 years. I can see the S&amp;P 500 being very choppy over the next four years with Trump. If I were honestly you, I would keep that money in a savings bank account. And invest new money from my wages into the S&amp;P 500, bonds ETF, and income ETFs,&#8221; another comment says.
Replying to the above user, a Redditor reminded him that the poster didn&#8217;t have the money for long.
&#8220;Sounds like he just came into the $750,000 recently,&#8221; he said.
Read Next:
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<li>Have $200K saved?<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/money/have-200k-saved-heres-how-to-turn-it-into-lasting-wealth"> Here's how to turn it into lasting wealth</a></li>
<li>BlackRock is calling 2025 the year of alternative assets. <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/money/masterworks">One firm from NYC has quietly built a group of 60,000+ investors who have all joined in on an alt asset class previously exclusive to billionaires like Bezos and Gates.</a></li>
</ul>

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$750K In Cash But No Assets Or Pension – 38-Year-Old Asks: 'My Goal Is Long-Term Growth. How Should I Invest?' Reddit Is Divided

The stock market has been under pressure due to a combination of economic slowdown fears, trade war tensions, <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/econ-s/25/02/44041803/federal-reserves-preferred-inflation-gauge-marks-first-slowdown-in-4-months">and inflationary concerns</a>. 
Ongoing <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/tariffs">tariff escalations between major economies</a> have disrupted global supply chains, while rising costs and slowing business activity have led to market uncertainty. Investors looking to protect their portfolios from excessive volatility may find <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/etf">low-beta ETFs</a> a practical choice.
Investing in low-beta ETFs can be a smart strategy for those looking to stay in the market while minimizing risk. Beta is a measure of an asset's volatility relative to the market. A beta of less than 1 means the asset is less volatile than the broader market, providing stability during downturns. Here are five low-beta ETFs that can offer protection in uncertain times.
Also Read: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/03/44108913/tariffs-trump-tumult-how-to-trade-this-volatility-vix-surge">Tariffs, Trump, Tumult: How To Trade The Volatility Surge</a>
Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BND#NASDAQ">BND</a>)
<ul>
<li>Beta: 0.20, YTD Price Return: 3%</li>
<li>This ETF provides broad exposure to the U.S. bond market, covering government, corporate, and mortgage-backed securities. Bonds are generally considered safer than stocks, and with a low beta of 0.20, BND offers stability while still delivering a modest return. It is an excellent option for investors seeking income and capital preservation.</li>
</ul>
SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>)
<ul>
<li>Beta: 0.19 YTD Price Return: 10%</li>
<li>Gold is often seen as a safe-haven asset during market downturns, and the SPDR Gold Shares ETF provides direct exposure to the precious metal. With a low beta of 0.19, GLD tends to hold its value or even appreciate when equities struggle. This makes it an ideal hedge against economic and geopolitical uncertainties.</li>
</ul>
Vanguard Total International Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BNDX#NASDAQ">BNDX</a>)
<ul>
<li>Beta: 0.18 &#x7C; YTD Return: 1%</li>
<li>For investors looking to diversify globally, the Vanguard Total International Bond ETF offers exposure to investment-grade bonds outside the U.S. With a beta of just 0.18, this ETF minimizes risk while providing stability through international fixed-income securities. It's a solid choice for those seeking to balance their portfolio with low-volatility assets.</li>
</ul>
Vanguard Intermediate-Term Corporate Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VCIT#NASDAQ">VCIT</a>)
<ul>
<li>Beta: 0.34 YTD Price Return: 2.8%</li>
<li>VCIT focuses on intermediate-term corporate bonds, offering a mix of safety and better yields than government bonds. Its beta of 0.34 is slightly higher than the others on this list, but being below 1, it still provides lower volatility compared to equity investments. This ETF is suitable for those looking for relatively stable income with moderate risk.</li>
</ul>
iShares National Muni Bond ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MUB#NYSE">MUB</a>)
<ul>
<li>Beta: 0.18 YTD Price Return: 1%</li>
<li>Municipal bonds (munis) are known for their tax advantages and stability. The iShares National Muni Bond ETF invests in a diversified portfolio of U.S. municipal bonds, offering a low beta of 0.18. It is a great option for investors who want low-tax income with minimal exposure to market swings.</li>
</ul>
Also Read: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs/broad-u-s-equity-etfs/25/03/44085268/market-mayhem-5-etfs-that-soared-amid-volatility-last-week">Market Mayhem: 5 ETFs That Soared Amid Volatility Last Week</a>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Why Consider Low-Beta ETFs?</h2>
The stock market has been highly volatile in recent times, driven by trade war tensions and economic slowdown fears. The ongoing <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/25/03/44116300/how-companies-are-tweaking-products-to-cut-trumps-tariff-costs">tariff escalations</a> between the U.S., Canada, Mexico, and China have led to price hikes on various goods and have disrupted global supply chains. This turbulence has made it challenging for investors to navigate the market.
Low-beta ETFs exhibit greater stability than market-sensitive assets and tend to lose less when the market declines. Though they offer lower returns compared to high-beta stocks, their defensive nature makes them a reliable choice during economic uncertainty.
Read Next: 
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs/sector-etfs/25/03/44153070/auto-etfs-surge-on-trumps-tariff-reprieve-but-uncertainty-looms">Auto ETFs Surge On Trump&#8217;s Tariff Reprieve, But Uncertainty Looms</a></li>
</ul>
Image: Shutterstock

iShares S&P National AMT-Free Municipal Bond Fund

How To Ride Out Market Turbulence With These 5 Low-Beta ETFs

Vanguard has once again broadened its fixed-income offerings, rolling out a pair of new<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs"> Treasury-focused ETFs</a> on the Nasdaq. The Vanguard Ultra-Short Treasury ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VGUS#NASDAQ">VGUS</a>) and the Vanguard 0-3 Month Treasury Bill ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VBIL#NASDAQ">VBIL</a>) are low-cost index ETFs that aim to manage liquidity and short-term fixed-income exposure while keeping costs minimal.
VGUS will track the Bloomberg Short Treasury Index, which includes U.S. Treasury securities maturing in under a year. Meanwhile, VBIL will follow the Bloomberg US. Treasury Bills 0-3 Months Index, providing exposure to the shortest-maturity Treasury bills available. Both ETFs have an estimated expense ratio of just 0.07%, reinforcing Vanguard's commitment to cost-effective investing.
Also Read: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs/broad-u-s-equity-etfs/25/02/43605412/as-trade-war-heats-up-these-etfs-offer-a-safe-harbor-for-investors">As Trade War Heats Up, These ETFs Offer A Safe Harbor For Investors</a>
"The goal is to provide investors with a more diverse product range and complement our existing lineup of active and passive funds," <a href="https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/vanguard-introduces-new-etfs-to-meet-investors-short-term-liquidity-needs-302373595.html">said </a>Sara Devereux, Global Head of Vanguard Fixed Income Group.
With short durations and low volatility, VGUS and VBIL aim to bridge the gap between money market funds and ultra-short-term bond funds. Devereux touts the new funds as "valuable tools for advisors and investors to build more precise and flexible portfolios." 
Vanguard is already a giant in the ETF space, with more than $2.5 trillion in assets under management across nearly 90 ETFs. Fixed-income products make up a significant portion of that, with 21 other bond ETFs, including the $123.7 billion Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BND#NASDAQ">BND</a>). 
The company has long been a leader in passive fixed-income investing, dating back to the launch of the first bond index fund in 1986.
Read Next: 
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs/specialty-etfs/25/02/43661564/charles-schwab-rolls-out-24-5-trading-etf-store-president-says-you-may-not-like-it-but">Charles Schwab Rolls Out 24/5 Trading, ETF Store President Says &#8216;You May Not Like It But&#8230;&#8217;</a></li>
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Photo: Shutterstock

New ETFs

VBIL

VGUS

New Treasury ETFs Target Liquidity As Vanguard Expands Fixed-Income Lineup

The Federal Reserve indicated a more tempered approach to <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/01/42886101/investors-should-expect-no-rate-cuts-in-q1-2025-after-federal-reserves-december-minutes-release-strategist-says">interest rate cuts in 2025</a>.
That&#8217;s according to minutes from the Fed&#8217;s December meeting, which were released on Wednesday, Jan. 8. 
Investor interest shifted toward treasury bonds, as the 10-year yield briefly touched 4.73% on Wednesday, amid resurfacing inflation fears and anticipation around potential tariffs and tax policies. 
Fixed-income exchange-traded funds (ETFs) can help investors get exposure to bonds. This is thanks to the stability and predictable income opportunity amid equity market volatility that they hold.
Here are three standout ETFs poised to benefit:
<ul>
<li>iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/LQD#NYSE">LQD</a>) offers diversified exposure to investment-grade corporate bonds, which are less likely to default during economic uncertainty. The ETF boasts a weighted average maturity of 12.94 years but includes bonds with varying maturities to balance risk. Its 30-day SEC yield is 5.4%, and its expense ratio is 0.14%, making it a cost-effective option.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Vanguard Short-Term Bond ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BSV#NYSE">BSV</a>) is designed for stability and focuses on short-duration U.S. Treasury and investment-grade corporate bonds, with an average maturity of just 2.8 years. Music to the ears for risk-averse investors looking to shield themselves from rate volatility. The fund&#8217;s 30-day SEC yield is approximately 4.4%, with minimal sensitivity to interest rate changes. A low expense ratio of 0.04% makes it even more attractive.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BND#NASDAQ">BND</a>) offers comprehensive exposure to the entire U.S. bond market, including Treasuries, mortgage-backed securities, and investment-grade corporate bonds. The ETF's 30-day SEC yield stands at 4.55%, providing a steady income stream. An expense ratio of 0.03% is another point to note. Additionally, the ETF's liquidity and resilience during past crises, such as the 2020 pandemic sell-off, makes it a reliable long-term investment choice.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Why Bond Funds?</h3>
The Fed's cautious message supports a longer-term case for bond ETFs. 
Short-duration bond ETFs are less sensitive to rate fluctuations and can offer better returns than cash or savings accounts while limiting interest rate risk.
Similarly, investment-grade corporate bond ETFs are a sweet spot for yield-seeking investors. These ETFs balance risk and reward by offering exposure to highly rated corporate debt that typically performs well in uncertain economic conditions.
These apart, ultra-short bond ETFs like the iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SGOV#NYSE">SGOV</a>) could also gain traction as cash alternatives.
See Next:
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs/sector-etfs/25/01/42895976/china-focused-etfs-face-uncertainty-as-us-blacklists-tencent-catl">China-Focused ETFs Face Uncertainty As US Blacklists Tencent, CATL</a></li>
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Photo via Shutterstock

Fed's Cautious Rate Cut Approach Boosts Appeal Of These 3 ETFs

The Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VOO#NYSE">VOO</a>) has shattered records, crossing $100 billion in annual inflows this year, a historic high for any ETF over the same period. 
Data from ETF.com shows that the fund witnessed $101.07 billion in fresh money from investors, more than the combined inflows of its two closest competitors: iShares Core S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IVV#NYSE">IVV</a>) with $59.2 billion and SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) with just $22.9 billion.&nbsp;
In the multi-trillion-dollar exchange-traded fund industry, this trend is sparking debate over whether SPY, the world's largest ETF, is now on the brink of losing its long-standing crown.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">$VOO Poised To Become The World&#8217;s Largest ETF Next Year </h3>
Despite SPY still holding the title of the world's largest ETF, with $620 billion in assets under management (AUM), the gap between it and VOO — currently at $579 billion — has narrowed to $41 billion.
&#8220;That means that there is a very real possibility that VOO overtakes SPY as the world's largest ETF as soon as next year,&#8221; commented Sumit Roy, senior analyst at ETF.com. 
&#8220;But even if that happens, SPY's slide down the ETF leaderboard might not stop there. IVV is also nipping at its heels, with $565 billion in AUM,&#8221; he added. 
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">World&#8217;s 10 Largest ETFs by AUM</h3>
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>ETF Name</th>
<th>AUM ($ bn)</th>
<th>Expense ratio</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF TRUST</td>
<td>620.26</td>
<td>0.09%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF</td>
<td>579.35</td>
<td>0.03%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>iShares Core S&amp;P 500 ETF</td>
<td>559.64 </td>
<td>0.03%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Vanguard Total Stock Market (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VTI#NYSE">VTI</a>)</td>
<td>460.11</td>
<td>0.03%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>)</td>
<td>310.27 </td>
<td>0.20%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Vanguard Growth ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VUG#NYSE">VUG</a>)</td>
<td>151.13 </td>
<td>0.04%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VEA#NYSE">VEA</a>)</td>
<td>135.42</td>
<td>0.06%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Vanguard Value ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VTV#NYSE">VTV</a>)</td>
<td>133.31</td>
<td>0.04%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Vanguard Total Bond Market (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BND#NYSE">BND</a>)</td>
<td>119.17 </td>
<td>0.03%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Data: ETF.com</figcaption></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Expense Ratio: A Critical Factor For VOO&#8217;s Institutional Inflows</h3>
A key driver of VOO's success is its rock-bottom expense ratio of 0.03%, less than a third of SPY's 0.0945%. 
These differences have significant implications, especially for institutional investors managing billions.
A retail investor putting $5,000 into VOO at the start of the year would pay only $1.50 in annual expenses, while the same investment in SPY would cost $4.73 – basically an irrelevant difference. 
In sharp contrast, an institutional investor allocating $5 billion to VOO would pay just $1.5 million in fees, compared to $4.73 million with SPY—a staggering $3.23 million difference.
This simple example may explain that expense ratio differences are a huge driver of wholesale <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs">investor flows into ETFs</a>.
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Image:

Vanguard's S&P 500 ETF Hits $100 Billion Inflows In 2024: Is SPY's Crown At Risk?

The explosive <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs">growth of ETFs</a> is reshaping the financial landscape, with assets under management now nearing the $15 trillion mark. 
In a recent analysis, JPMorgan strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou delves into the implications of this seismic shift, spotlighting how ETFs are redefining investor behavior, liquidity patterns, and even market risks. Here are his top 10 takeaways that every investor should know.
1. Retail Sentiment Is Driving Volatility Panigirtzoglou notes that the growing dominance of ETFs has made retail investors more influential in driving market sentiment. Unlike institutional investors, retail traders tend to have shorter time horizons, leading to sudden, amplified shifts in market trends when sentiment swings.
2. Longer Rallies, Sharper Corrections The analyst highlights how ETFs encourage momentum-driven markets, fueling prolonged rallies during bullish periods. However, during market reversals, the absence of active management safeguards can result in sharper corrections and increased volatility.
Read Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/24/11/42097545/feds-bowman-warns-on-inflation-risks-signals-neutral-rate-may-be-closer">Fed&#8217;s Bowman Warns On Inflation, Says Neutral Interest Rates May Be Closer &#8216;Than We Currently Think&#8217;</a>
3. Big Money Flows Into Large-Caps Most ETFs are market-cap-weighted, which means they funnel disproportionate capital into large-cap stocks. Panigirtzoglou warns this trend could inflate valuations for mega-caps while crowding out smaller companies, risking capital misallocation.
Companies such as Nvidia Corp, Apple Inc, and Microsoft Corp each currently command over $3 trillion in market cap on the U.S. stock markets.
4. Liquidity Rushes to the Closing Bell As ETFs rebalance towards the end of trading sessions, liquidity has increasingly clustered during these periods. Around one-third of S&amp;P 500 trades now occur in the final 10 minutes of the day, Panigirtzoglou points out, creating a feedback loop of concentrated activity.
5. Concentrated Risks in a Few ETFs The rise of giant ETFs like the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and the Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>) has introduced systemic risks. Panigirtzoglou argues that their scale and importance rival those of equity futures, making the market vulnerable to large, single-product flows.
6. Algorithmic Traders Are Thriving Bond ETFs, in particular, have bolstered electronic and algorithmic trading, says Panigirtzoglou. Non-bank market makers now dominate liquidity provision in fixed-income markets, capitalizing on high-volume, low-margin trades.
Popular bond ETFs, such as the iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AGG#NYSE">AGG</a>) and the Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BND#NYSE">BND</a>), are among the largest and most liquid bond market ETFs traded in the U.S.
7. Index Changes Have Outsized Effects Panigirtzoglou emphasizes how ETF-driven flows have magnified the impact of index rebalancing. Stocks entering major indices see outsized gains, while those removed face steeper declines than fundamentals might justify.
8. Corporate Governance Takes a Hit With passive funds dominating, Panigirtzoglou sees a decline in corporate activism. Unlike active managers, passive funds have little incentive to push for governance changes, which could diminish oversight.
9. Market Efficiency Is Declining The shift toward passive investing reduces opportunities for arbitrage, Panigirtzoglou argues, leading to more persistent mispricings. While this could lure active managers back, their ability to extract alpha has waned.
10. Passive Investing's Limit May Be Near Panigirtzoglou suggests there may be a natural ceiling for passive investing. If market inefficiencies grow too large, active managers could stage a comeback, attracting capital back from ETFs to actively managed funds.
The ETF revolution has undoubtedly democratized investing, but Panigirtzoglou warns that its rapid rise comes with unintended consequences. 
From concentrated liquidity to increased systemic risks, the landscape is evolving in ways that demand vigilance. 
As ETFs near the $15 trillion milestone, will passive dominance plateau, or is its impact just beginning?
Read Next: 
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/24/11/42107863/us-futures-head-lower-as-nvidia-reports-slowdown-in-quarterly-revenue-growth-expert-says-market-weakness-is-perfectly-normal-but-late-november-is-still-possible">US Futures Head Lower As Nvidia Earnings Fail To Impress Investors: Expert Says Market Weakness Is &#8216;Perfectly Normal,&#8217; But Late November Rally Is Still Possible</a></li>
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Image created using artificial intelligence via Midjourney.

10 Ways ETFs Are Reshaping US Markets As They Near $15 Trillion

Investors looking to bonds and bond ETFs for stability may face heightened volatility due to President-elect Donald Trump's approach to tariffs could put <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/treasury-yields">upward pressure on yields</a>.
What Happened: Bond yields continue to climb after the Fed's 25-basis-point rate cut on Thursday. With the 10-year Treasury yield reached 4.34% in response to market speculation around Trump's fiscal agenda.
This shift complicates the Federal Reserve's efforts to ease borrowing costs, a concern for individual bondholders and bond ETFs investors. The backdrop of tax cuts and anticipated tariffs could limit the Fed's <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/11/41814589/why-trumps-boost-to-treasury-yields-inflation-expectations-may-weaken-feds-efforts-">ability to cut rates deeply</a>.
Also Read: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/24/11/41886697/two-ideas-famed-stock-market-forecasters-agree-on-for-2025">Why Trump&#8217;s Win Has 2 Market Experts Betting On Small Caps, Financials</a>
Since mid-September, Treasury yields have surged by over 70 basis points, putting additional pressure on bond prices and impacting major bond ETFs. BofA Global Research has adjusted its outlook, with Treasury yields now projected in the 4.25%-4.75% range, Reuters reports. This rising yield environment creates challenges for bonds, as higher yields correspond to declining bond prices, which could erode returns for investors in bond ETFs.
Why It Matters: According to Reuters, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates that Trump's proposed fiscal policies will add approximately $7.75 trillion to the national debt in a decade. Economists, banks and analysts have all warned that the <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/personal-finance/24/09/40961812/economists-warn-trumps-plans-for-tax-cuts-tariffs-and-deportation-could-trigger-skyrocketing-inf">plans will worsen inflation</a> and make debt unsustainable.
Bond ETFs, which offer exposure across various segments of the bond market, are likely to feel the impact of these fiscal pressures as bond yields trend higher.
Increased yields may lead to more appealing income for bond ETF investors but could also heighten risks related to price declines as yields continue to rise.
On Monday, 10 prominent bond ETFs were mainly trading lower:
<ul>
<li>Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BND#NASDAQ">BND</a>): $72.93, down 0.22%.</li>
<li>iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AGG#NYSE">AGG</a>): $98.26, 0.25% lower.</li>
<li>SPDR Portfolio Aggregate Bond ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPAB#NYSE">SPAB</a>): $25.34, down 0.3%.</li>
<li>iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/LQD#NYSE">LQD</a>): $109.60, 0.23% lower.</li>
<li>Vanguard Short-Term Corporate Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VCSH#NASDAQ">VCSH</a>): $78.30, down 0.09%.</li>
<li>iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>): $91.93, down 0.6%.</li>
<li>Vanguard Intermediate-Term Corporate Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VCIT#NASDAQ">VCIT</a>): $81.47, 0.22% lower.</li>
<li>iShares U.S. Treasury Bond ETF (BATS:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOVT#BATS">GOVT</a>): $22.72, down 0.24%.</li>
<li>SPDR Bloomberg High Yield Bond ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/JNK#NYSE">JNK</a>): $97.02, down 0.05%.</li>
<li>Vanguard Total International Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BNDX#NASDAQ">BNDX</a>): $49.94, up 0.09%</li>
</ul>
With rising bond yields and fiscal expansion under Trump, bond ETFs could continue to see volatility. 
Bond investors may need to weigh the attraction of higher yields against potential declines in bond prices, particularly in high-yield and long-term Treasury segments, where market shifts are expected to be most pronounced.
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Photo: Shutterstock

Bond ETFs Slide As Fed Cuts Clash With Trump's Fiscal Agenda

Americans receiving <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/personal-finance/24/09/40800774/gen-xs-looming-retirement-crisis-is-worse-than-they-realize-expert-compares-it-to-being-handed-a">Social Security payments</a> may see less of an increase next year, according to a nonprofit group that represents senior citizens.
The Social Security Administration is poised to announce its yearly cost of living adjustment (COLA) for payments to 71 million Americans in the middle of next month, effective in January 2025. The government agency handed out a 3.2% increase for this year last October.
The Senior Citizens League expects a 2.5% increase for next year, based on inflation falling from 2.9% in July to <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/09/40815794/fed-is-all-clear-for-launch-on-cutting-rates-as-inflation-falls-to-lowest-point-in-">2.5% in August</a>.
By law, the annual inflation adjustment is based on the average inflation during July, August, and September&nbsp;as measured by the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W).
Read Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/personal-finance/24/09/40817544/report-warns-of-16-500-annual-social-security-benefit-cut-for-dual-income-couples-by-2033">Report Warns of $16,500 Annual Social Security Benefit Cut for Dual-Income Couples by 2033</a>
The Bureau of Labor Statistics averages the CPI-W for these three months and then compares it with the same time frame from the previous year. The percentage difference between the two is the COLA, payable for checks received in January 2025. 
The league says the expected 2.5% increase will not be enough for seniors to meet the higher cost of living. 
Nearly 80% of senior households report that their monthly budget for essential items like food, housing, and prescription drugs had increased over the last 12 months, according to a 2024 survey taken by the organization. Almost two-thirds &#8212; 63% &#8212; say they&#8217;re worried that their income won&#8217;t be enough to cover these basic costs in the coming months.
&#8220;Ensuring that seniors have enough to feed and house themselves with dignity is a major reason why we advocate for a minimum COLA of 3%,&#8221; said Shannon Benton, the league&#8217;s executive&nbsp;director.&nbsp;
She said about two-thirds of seniors rely on Social Security for more than half of their monthly income, and 28% depend on it entirely.
Retirement Stocks
Dividend-yielding, retirement-oriented stocks, typically selected for their risk-averse nature, experienced mixed performance by midday trading on Monday.
<ul>
<li>Coca-Cola Co (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/KO#NYSE">KO</a>) gained 0.92% to $72.06.</li>
<li>Anhueser Busch InBev (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BUD#NYSE">BUD</a>) slipped 0.41% to $64.63.</li>
<li>Dominion Energy, Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/D#NYSE">D</a>) rose 1.07% to $58.78.</li>
<li>Microsoft Corporation (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NYSE">MSFT</a>) slipped 0.19% to $429.78.</li>
</ul>
Retirement ETFs
Exchange-traded funds that are well suited for retirement trended upward on Monday.
<ul>
<li>Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VYM#NYSE">VYM</a>) rose 0.41%.</li>
<li>IShares MSCI EAFE ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EFA#NYSE">EFA</a>) gained 0.34%.</li>
<li>Vanguard Total World Stock ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VT#NYSE">VT</a>) edged up 0.53%.</li>
<li>IShares Cohen &amp; Steers REIT ETF ((BATS: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/icf#BATS">ICF</a>) went up 0.20%.</li>
<li>Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BND#NASDAQ">BND</a>) inched up 0.21%.</li>
</ul>
Retirement Plan Stocks
Financial service firms that offer retirement plans were also on the upswing on Monday.
<ul>
<li>The Charles Schwab Corporation (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SCHW#NYSE">SCHW</a>) picked up 2.5% to $63.67.</li>
<li>Wells Fargo &amp; Co. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/WFC#NYSE">WFC</a>) gained 1.89% to $53.78.</li>
<li>JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/JPM#NYSE">JPM</a>) gained 1.47% to $201.33.</li>
</ul>
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Photo: Shutterstock

News

iShares Trusthen & Steers Realty Majors Index Fund

MSFT

SCHW

Social Security Payments Set For 2.5% Increase Next Year; Retirement-Oriented Dividend Stocks Like Coca-Cola, Wells Fargo See Gains

Bond traders predict that the Federal Reserve&#8216;s<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/24/06/39506407/6-biggest-us-banks-ramp-up-buybacks-undeterred-by-stress-tests"> interest-rate cuts </a>will go well beyond what the agency has forecast for the next nine months.
Traders in the U.S. rates options market expect a much higher 3 percentage points worth of cuts by March. This dwarfs the Fed&#8217;s recent projections of just 25 basis points of reductions by the end of 2024 and a total 125-basis-point cut by the end of next year, Bloomberg <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-25/bond-traders-boldly-bet-on-300-basis-points-of-fed-cuts-by-march?cmpid=BBD062624_OUS&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_source=newsletter&amp;utm_term=240626&amp;utm_campaign=openamericas&amp;sref=TBDibEcD">reported</a>.
Options-market activity related to the secured overnight financing rate over the past three sessions show a significant upside if the Fed reduced its key rate by 300 basis points to 2.25% by next year&#8217;s first quarter.
Also Read: <a href="http://Bank Stocks Trend Upward As Fed Shares Possible Changes To Bank-Capital Overhaul">Bank Stocks Trend Upward As Fed Shares Possible Changes To Bank-Capital Overhaul</a>
This scenario would allow traders to hedge other investments, but it is an unlikely outcome unless the U.S. economy plummets into recession.
Investors have been keeping a close eye on economic data and remarks by Fed officials for any clues on the timing of eventual Fed easing while hedging against extreme rate cuts and other tail-risk outcomes.
Price Action:  iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AGG#NYSE">AGG</a>) slipped 0.36% by early-afternoon trading on Wednesday, while Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BND#NASDAQ">BND</a>) declined 0.40%. Vanguard Total International Bond ETF (BNDX) slid 0.43%.
Now Read: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/real-estate/24/05/38647920/homebuyers-get-mixed-news-from-freddie-mac-and-the-federal-reserve">Homebuyers Get Mixed News From Freddie Mac And The Federal Reserve</a>
Image: Shutterstock

Bond Traders Expect Much Deeper Interest Rate Cuts Than Projected

Markets are expecting the neutral rate &#8212; a theoretical rate that remains stable due to full employment and stable inflation &#8212; to stay higher than policymakers are forecasting. What does this mean for bond <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/bond-etfs-unfazed-by-fed-decision-to-keep-rates-steady/ar-BB1ob69W">exchange-traded funds</a>?
A higher neutral rate may limit the Federal Reserve&#8217;s ability to cut interest rates, possibly causing headwinds for bonds, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-23/how-long-will-high-rates-last-bond-markets-say-maybe-forever?srnd=homepage-americas&amp;sref=TBDibEcD">Bloomberg </a>reports. 
Forward contracts on the five-year interest rate in the next five years — a proxy for the market's view of where U.S. rates might land — have stagnated at 3.6%. That is down from last year's peak of 4.5%, but it's still more than one full percentage point higher than the average over the past decade and above the Fed's own estimate of 2.75%.
This indicates the market is pricing in a much more elevated floor for yields, according to Bloomberg. This may limit bond performance, which might hamper investors&#8217; hopes for the kind of bond rally that saved them late last year.
Also read: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/06/39420979/us-economy-in-state-of-unstable-equilibrium-study-finds">US Economy &#8216;In State Of Unstable Equilibrium,&#8217; Study Finds</a>
Investor sentiment is rising steadily, but a Bloomberg gauge of Treasury returns was down just 0.3% in 2024 as of Friday, after shedding 3.4% for the year at its low point. Benchmark yields are down about half a percentage point from their year-to-date peak in April, Bloomberg reported.
The true level of the neutral rate, also known as R-Star, may take an upward trend that would reverse a decades-long downward drift on expectations for large and protracted government budget deficits and increased spending on battling climate change.
Further gains in bonds may require a more pronounced slowdown in inflation and growth to prompt interest rate cuts more quickly and deeply than the Fed currently envisions. A higher neutral rate would make this scenario less likely, according to Bloomberg.
Economists expect&nbsp;data next week&nbsp;to show that the Fed's preferred gauge of underlying inflation slowed to an annualized rate 2.6% last month from 2.8%. 
That is the lowest reading since March 2021, but it still exceeds the Fed's goal for 2% inflation. And the unemployment rate has been at or below 4% for more than two years, the best performance since the 1960s.
Price action: iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AGG#NYSE">AGG</a>) was up 0.01%, the Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BND#NASDAQ">BND</a>) was down 0.04% and the Vanguard Total International Bond Index Fund (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BNDX#NASDAQ">BNDX</a>) slipped 0.12% at the time of publication Monday.
Read Next:
<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/23/12/36438336/investor-optimism-tested-navigating-2024-bond-markets-uncertain-terrain">Investor Optimism Tested: Navigating 2024 Bond Market&#8217;s Uncertain Terrain</a>
Photo: Shutterstock

Media

Market's Higher Neutral Rate Expectations May Challenge Bond ETFs

The European Central Bank is universally <a href="https://www.benzinga.com//node/39029946">expected to cut interest rates for the Euro area this week</a>.
Cutting back on interest rates for the first time in two decades can be seen as a positive sign for the dwindling European economy, which has been hit by slow growth and poor demographic patterns.
Average inflation in Euro area countries has been mostly on a downward trend since last year, reaching an annual 2.4% in both March and April, down from a peak of 10.6% in October 2022.
The measure, however, is very dynamic within the block, with figures as low as 0.4% for Lithuania and as high as 4.9% in Belgium.
The ECB commenced its latest rate hike cycle in July 2022. Key ECB interest rates, the European counterpart for the federal funds rate, was hiked a total of 10 times and now stands at 4%. The same rate has been kept steady since September of last year.
June's cut will bring the rate down by 25 basis points to a floor of 3.75%.
Yet the steady pace towards the ideal measure of 2% annual inflation might be hitting a roadblock this month, as Eurostat, the block's main statistics office, is estimatfing that May's inflation has gone up to 2.6%, above estimates of 2.5%.
If the measure is confirmed, it won&#8217;t interfere with plans to lower interest rates. It might influence a decision by the ECB to pause rates during July and slow the speed of rate cuts down the line.
Bloomberg Economics has <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-01/central-banks-latest-world-rate-paths-set-to-diverge-with-ecb-s-first-cut?sref=TBDibEcD">forecast</a> a pause in July and further cuts in September, October and December.
Read Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/05/38951699/eu-approves-3-5b-in-frozen-russian-assets-for-ukraine-janet-yellen-has-a-plan-to-increase-amount-by">EU Approves $3.5B In Frozen Russian Assets For Ukraine: Janet Yellen Has A Plan To Increase Amount By Over 10X</a>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">What This Means For US</h3>
Timing for the EU's latest inflationary cycle is in line with the U.S.'s wave of price increases. Both territories have been subject to the same variables. Energy prices, for example, are affected by the Ukraine/Russia war.
Yet the block's inflation is easing faster than in the U.S.
<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/24/05/38842603/us-inflation-falls-as-expected-in-april-bolsters-fed-rate-cut-bets">Yearly U.S. inflation was 3.4% in April</a>, down from 3.5% in March. 
On Friday, the Fed's preferred measure for inflation, the Personal Consumption Expenditure, was released for the month of April, showing <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/24/05/39110198/feds-preferred-inflation-gauge-matches-estimates-personal-income-spending-slow-mo">a steady course, with a 2.7% annual rise as compared to the previous year</a>.
In a Monday interview, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari advocated for maintaining the current Fed funds rate in the U.S. for a longer period <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/24/06/39131539/feds-neel-kashkari-advocates-for-no-interest-rate-cut-until-we-get-a-lot-more-data-to-convince-us-am">to avoid the risk of jeopardizing U.S. economic prosperity</a>.
The EU's decision will further widen the gap with the cost of borrowing in the U.S., where the federal funds rate now stands at between 5.25% and 5.5%.
Canada is also expected to slash rates this week, in a decision to be confirmed on Wednesday, also widening the gap of borrowing cost across the Northern border, putting further pressure on the Fed to begin slashing rates sooner rather than later.
Canada's annual inflation rate also shows a better trajectory than its American counterpart, having dropped to 2.7% in April, down from 2.9% in March.
An upcoming <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/jobs-report">jobs report</a> this Friday will further inform the Fed in its upcoming decisions. Economists are estimating the creation of 190,000 jobs in May.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Stocks And Other Assets To Watch </h3>
Fixed-income securities like government bonds tend to go up as interest rates are slashed.
Their prices will likely be affected by expectations around upcoming rate cuts in the U.S.
Last week, Bank of America chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett said <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/05/39116124/bank-of-america-strategist-shifts-to-bonds-stock-sell-off-prophecy-on-benign-inflat">he's bullish on bonds for the second half of the year as expectations</a> on rate cuts grow and may even become realized.
He said to "buy any dip in bond prices," while recommending to "sell the first cut" for stocks.
While there are many ways to <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/money/how-to-buy-bonds">buy government bonds</a>, investors can also access the bond market by purchasing bond ETFs like iShares Core US Aggregate Bond ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AGG#NYSE">AGG</a>) and Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BND#NASDAQ">BND</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Real Estate</h3>
The real estate market has been <a href="https://www.benzinga.com//node/39110330">one of the worst hit by the recent wave of rate increases</a>, as the cost of borrowing for both commercial and personal building and renovation has skyrocketed.
Expectations on rate cuts could turn out to be a lifeline for the sector, which is covered by ETFs like Vanguard Real Estate Index Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VNQ#NYSE">VNQ</a>), Schwab US REIT ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SCHH#NYSE">SCHH</a>) and Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLRE#NYSE">XLRE</a>).
Now read: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com//node/38934737">EU Enacts World&#8217;s First AI Regulation, First Compliance Trigger Will Aim To Tackle AI Systems That Pose &#8216;Unacceptable&#8217; Risk</a>
Shutterstock image.

Sector ETFs

Eurozone

General

Real Estate

SCHH

XLRE

Pressure Mounts On Fed As Eurozone, Canada Plan Interest Rate Cuts This Week

Investors are growing increasingly concerned about the potential impact of the <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/04/38104382/serious-debate-needed-to-avert-2025-us-debt-crisis-warns-wharton-expert">mounting U.S. debt</a> on the bond market, with the issue expected to take center stage as the presidential election approaches.
What Happened: The U.S. government&#8217;s debt is expected to balloon, potentially overshadowing an anticipated bond rally. This is due to the ongoing large fiscal deficits, which show no signs of abating ahead of the presidential election, Reuters reported on Friday.
Investors are already adjusting their portfolios to mitigate potential losses if Treasury yields surge due to supply and demand imbalances. There are also concerns that the uncertainty surrounding the necessary debt for deficit spending could destabilize the $27 trillion Treasury market, a cornerstone of the global financial system.
Despite the focus on the Federal Reserve&#8217;s potential interest rate cuts, analysts and investors anticipate that fiscal concerns will become more pronounced as the election nears. Both President Joe Biden and Republican candidate Donald Trump have not made reducing deficit spending a priority, according to the report.
See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/05/38955491/mohamed-el-erian-and-bitcoin-critic-peter-schiff-highlight-golds-soaring-prices-and-market-momentum?itm_source=parsely-api" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Mohamed El-Erian And Bitcoin-Critic Peter Schiff Highlight Gold&#8217;s Soaring Prices And Market Momentum: &#8216;Just Sit Tight And Enjoy The Ride&#8217;</a>
Why It Matters: The concerns over rising U.S. debt come amid a broader financial landscape marked by significant shifts. On May 16, disinflation hopes began reshaping Treasury yields, with expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts influencing market trends.
This shift contributed to an optimistic sentiment about <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/macro-notification/24/05/38880563/disinflation-hopes-reshape-treasury-yields-major-trend-5-bond-etfs-poised-to-rally-on-">potential rallies in bond ETFs</a>, such as the Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BND#NASDAQ">BND</a>) and iShares J.P. Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EMB#NASDAQ">EMB</a>).
Additionally, the <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/24/05/38916165/nasdaq-s-p-500-futures-keep-head-above-water-ahead-of-fed-speeches-analyst-says-market-boosting-the">S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq futures</a> showed resilience ahead of key Federal Reserve speeches, indicating a market buoyed by optimism. This positive sentiment was reflected in the performance of major indices like the Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>), and SPDR S&amp;P 500 (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>).
Read Next: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/24/05/38960399/wall-street-braces-for-subdued-start-ahead-of-nvidia-earnings-fed-minutes-analyst-cautions-about-gu?itm_source=parsely-api" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Why Nasdaq, S&amp;P 500 Futures Are Flatlining Wednesday</a>
Photo by Austin Distel on Unsplash
This story was generated using <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/author/benzinga-neuro">Benzinga Neuro</a> and edited by <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/Pooja-Rajkumari" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Pooja Rajkumari</a>

iShares JPMorgan USD Emerging Markets Bond Fund

Investors Fear Mounting US Debt Could Overshadow Bond Rally Ahead Of Presidential Elections

A major trend shift is unfolding in the bond market, as key Treasury yields are currently testing the support of the crucial 200-day moving average, following the release of benign economic data that has cemented investor bets on <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/24/05/38842603/us-inflation-falls-as-expected-in-april-bolsters-fed-rate-cut-bets">Federal Reserve rate cuts.</a>
Last month, the inflation rate calculated using the consumer price index (CPI) came in at 3.4% compared to the same month last year, down from 3.5% in March, and in line with the forecasted 3.4% increase. The &#8220;core&#8221; inflation rate, which excludes volatile energy and food prices, also matched estimates, falling from 3.8% to 3.6%.
April's inflation reading has raised hopes that the disinflation trend may restart after three consecutive higher-than-predicted CPI readings in the first quarter. 
In his recent comments, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell downplayed concerns about a possible hike in interest rates, signaling that the next adjustment would likely be a reduction. However, he emphasized this cut might come later than the markets initially anticipated.
Money markets are currently factoring in a 50 basis point reduction in interest rates by the end of the year, with a 70% chance for the Federal Reserve to begin its loosening cycle in September.
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Treasury Yields Eye 200-Day Moving Average Support</h1>
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note traded at around 3.36% on Thursday, hitting an intraday low of 3.31%, temporarily sliding below the 200-day average positioned at 3.33%. 
Similarly, yields on both 2-year and 30-year Treasury notes are currently testing the support of the 200-day average.
The 200-day moving average is a widely watched technical indicator that helps investors gauge the long-term trend of a security or index. 
When Treasury yields fall below this level, it often signals a bearish or downward trend, suggesting that investors are seeking safer assets amid expectations of a slowing economy or lower interest rates. This shift can create a more favorable environment for bond prices, which move inversely to yields.
Here&#8217;s a snapshot of the current yield levels compared to their 200-day moving averages, as well as their 2024 high-to-low range. 
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Maturity</th>
<th>Current Yield</th>
<th>200-day Moving Average</th>
<th>2024 Peak</th>
<th>2024 Low</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>2 year</td>
<td>4.78%</td>
<td>4.75%</td>
<td>5.05%</td>
<td>4.12%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>5 year</td>
<td>4.39%</td>
<td>4.35%</td>
<td>4.75%</td>
<td>3.75%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>10 year</td>
<td>4.36%</td>
<td>4.33%</td>
<td>4.74%</td>
<td>3.82%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>30 year</td>
<td>4.50%</td>
<td>4.48%</td>
<td>4.85%</td>
<td>4.07%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Updated as of May 16, 2024 (11:45 a.m. EDT) </figcaption></figure>
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Chart: Inflation Data Casts Doubt On 10-Year Treasury Yield&#8217;s 2024 Rising Trend</h1>
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="495" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/16112728/image-70-1024x495.png" alt="" class="wp-image-341796" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/16112728/image-70-1024x495.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/16112728/image-70-300x145.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/16112728/image-70-768x372.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/16112728/image-70-1536x743.png 1536w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/16112728/image-70.png 1920w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
Read Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/24/05/38873168/us-inflation-data-prematurely-released-by-accident-yet-traders-missed-golden-oppo">US Inflation Data Prematurely Released By Accident, Yet Traders Missed Golden Opportunity</a>
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Bond ETFs Set To Rally</h1>
The shift in Treasury yields has set the stage for a rally in bond ETFs, especially those focused on long-duration bonds. 
Here are five bond ETFs poised to benefit from rising expectations of Fed rate cuts:
<ol>
<li>iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>): This ETF tracks long-term U.S. Treasury bonds and is particularly sensitive to changes in interest rates. With long-dated yields falling, TLT could see sharp gains as it moves inversely to yields. In reaction to April&#8217;s inflation data, it rose 1.4% on the day.</li>
<li>Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BND#NYSE">BND</a>): A broader option, BND includes a mix of short-, medium-, and long-term bonds. Its diversified approach makes it a stable choice as market sentiments shift. Following the latest inflation statistics, BND inched 0.6% higher.</li>
<li>iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/LQD#NYSE">LQD</a>): As rate cut expectations strengthen, investment-grade corporate bonds could see price increases. LQD offers exposure to this segment.</li>
<li>SPDR Bloomberg High Yield Bond ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/JNK#NYSE">JNK</a>): Higher risk and higher reward, JNK covers the high-yield, or &#8220;junk,&#8221; bond market. Rate cuts often boost these bonds as investors hunt for yield.</li>
<li>iShares J.P. Morgan USD Emerging Market Bond ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EMB#NYSE">EMB</a>): As Treasury yields retreat and the Fed hints at a slower pace for rate hikes, emerging markets bonds could benefit from increased investor appetite for higher-yielding assets. Notably, EMB rose 1.1% on Wednesday, positively reacting to inflation data. </li>
</ol>
Read Now: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/05/38850154/economists-react-to-inflation-retail-sales-the-soft-landing-narrative-is-still-a-po">Economists React To Inflation, Retail Sales: &#8216;The Soft Landing Narrative Is Still A Possibility But Not A Guarantee&#8217;</a>
Photo: Shutterstock

Macro Notification

Treasuries

Econ #s

Movers

Disinflation Hopes Reshape Treasury Yields' Major Trend: 5 Bond ETFs Poised To Rally On Fed Rate Cuts

The bond market is showing new signs of unpredictability as expectations over Fed rate cuts <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/opinion/24/03/37938028/exclusive-interest-rates-rode-the-elevator-up-but-analyst-predicts-theyll-take-the-stairs-coming-dow">shift with every new piece of economic data</a>.
Last week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged that <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/24/03/37857035/fed-chair-powell-opens-door-to-rate-cuts-this-year-downplays-recent-inflation-upt">rate cuts for this year are being decided on a meeting-by-meeting basis</a>. Therefore, it's not possible to predict how much the cost of borrowing will drop in 2024.
However, some investors <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/03/37900527/federal-reserve-pushes-stocks-to-record-highs-as-rate-cuts-loom-nvidia-rallies-appl">continue to price in at least three rate cuts this year</a>. This took the S&amp;P 500 and other market gauges to record heights last week.
Investors priced in significant rate cuts for 2024 during the first two months, as inflation showed consistent signs of easing. 
But rising prices from February's CPI report came in <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/24/03/37615483/inflation-rises-more-than-expected-to-3-2-rebuffs-expectations-of-june-fed-rate-cut">above economist expectations</a>. And stronger than expected economic activity shows that inflation could be harder to tame than many had hoped.
Meanwhile, the fear of <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/24/01/36614222/stagflation-in-2024-red-sea-crisis-could-trigger-domino-effect-for-global-costs">stagflation</a> is weighing on optimism. 
Read Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/03/37940764/commodities-poised-for-comeback-in-investor-portfolios-this-time-is-different-strat">Commodities Poised For Comeback In Investor Portfolios: &#8216;The Future Could Be Different,&#8217; Strategist Says</a>
How Treasury Notes Are Reacting: Treasury yields, which come down with interest rate cuts, continue to hang on attractive levels.
The yield on the 10-year U.S. The Treasury note was 4.25% on Tuesday, keeping the cost of borrowing money high for prospective homebuyers looking to get into a mortgage, as well as for corporate borrowers.
The 30-year fixed mortgage rate is still gravitating around 7%, which is <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/24/03/37855254/are-you-a-housing-market-lock-in-high-mortgage-rates-result-in-people-not-living-in-homes-they-w">negatively affecting the U.S. housing market</a>.
Yields on Treasury assets set the floor on mortgages and the general cost of borrowing, as mortgage lenders keep interest rates above bond yields in order to attract similar investors, who would otherwise just decide to invest in Treasury notes.
Yields on the 10-year note peaked at 5% in October of last year. They quickly dropped as it became apparent that the Fed's monetary policy was working. The 10-year Treasury yield went from 3.86% at the start of the year to today's 4.25%.
Investors today are <a href="https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/treasury-yields-rising-fed-interest-rate-expectations-4a157a85?mod=hp_lead_pos11">more</a> moderate in their rate cut expectations. Current yields continue to reflect expectations that the Fed will cut rates in the future. They are now expecting that prediction to come true on a longer timescale.
Investors continue to expect yields to drop. The only thing that could take yields back to October's heights would be if the market receives very strong signals of economic acceleration, taking inflation back up again.
Retail investors can gain diversified exposure to the bond market by purchasing bond ETFs. The largest ones include Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BND#NASDAQ">BND</a>), iShares Core US Aggregate Bond ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AGG#NYSE">AGG</a>) and iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>).
Now Read:<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/03/37891092/5-technologies-that-could-be-worth-220-trillion-by-2030-cathie-woods-ark-predicts-t"> 5 Technologies That Could Be Worth $220 Trillion By 2030, Cathie Wood&#8217;s ARK Predicts &#8211; &#8216;The Time Is Now&#8217;</a>
Image: Shutterstock

Bond Traders Think Interest Rate Cuts Are Ahead, But One Caveat Keeps Yields Above 4%

Vanguard has become a towering figure <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs">in the world of exchange-traded funds (ETFs)</a>. 
As investors increasingly turn to ETFs for their diversification, lower costs, and liquidity, understanding the offerings and strategies of major players like Vanguard is essential. 
Yet, amidst this expansive array of financial instruments, one notable absence in Vanguard&#8217;s portfolio raises eyebrows: the lack of a <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/bitcoin-etf">Bitcoin ETF. </a>
Here, we delve into the five critical factors about Vanguard ETFs, also explaining why a Bitcoin ETF is deliberately missing from their portfolio lineup.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Vanguard&#8217;s Status In The ETF Arena</h3>
Vanguard ranks as the second-largest ETF issuer globally, overseeing a diverse portfolio of over a hundred ETFs and boasting an impressive $2.5 trillion in assets under management (AUM), just shy of BlackRock Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BLK#NYSE">BLK</a>), which leads with $2.7 trillion AUM.
The Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VOO#NYSE">VOO</a>), with $426 billion in AUM as of Mar. 14, 2024, is not only Vanguard&#8217;s flagship fund but also the world&#8217;s second-largest ETF, trailing slightly behind the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) at $503 billion. 
Top 7 Vanguard&#8217;s ETFs By AUM
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>ETF</th>
<th>AUM (bn)</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF </td>
<td>426.87 </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF </td>
<td>385.48 </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VEA#NYSE">VEA</a>)</td>
<td>130.07 </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Vanguard Growth ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VUG#NYSE">VUG</a>)</td>
<td>119.81 </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Vanguard Value ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VTV#NYSE">VTV</a>)</td>
<td>115.14</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BND#NYSE">BND</a>)</td>
<td>105.94</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Vanguard Div Appreciation ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VIG#NYSE">VIG</a>) </td>
<td>77.92</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Champion of Low Fees</h3>
In the competitive ETF marketplace, cost efficiency is a significant battleground. Vanguard emerges as a victor here, offering the lowest average expense fees among its funds—an AUM-weighted average expense ratio of a mere 0.05%, according to data from VettaFi. 
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Issuers</td>
<td>Expense Rank</td>
<td>Avg. Expense Ratio (%)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Vanguard</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>0.05%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>BNY Mellon</td>
<td>2</td>
<td>0.05%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Charles Schwab</td>
<td>3</td>
<td>0.08%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Bondbloxx Investment Management Corp.</td>
<td>4</td>
<td>0.10%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>GAMCO Investors, Inc.</td>
<td>5</td>
<td>0.11%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Humankind USA LLC</td>
<td>6</td>
<td>0.11%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>State Street</td>
<td>7</td>
<td>0.12%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Deutsche Bank AG</td>
<td>8</td>
<td>0.13%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Goldman Sachs</td>
<td>9</td>
<td>0.15%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Data: VettaFi</figcaption></figure>
The cheapest ETFs issued by Vanguard are the Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF, Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VTI#NYSE">VTI</a>), and the Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF, all screening an expense ratio of just 0.03%.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Leading The 2024 Inflow Race</h3>
In 2024, Vanguard outshines its competitors in attracting investment flows. The issuer has seen a staggering $75 billion in inflows over the past three months, eclipsing BlackRock&#8217;s $55.7 billion, thereby securing its position as the top performer in fund flows thus far this year.
The Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF has attracted $21 billion over the past three months, topping the ranking among its peers. 
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Issuers</td>
<td>Fund Flow Rank</td>
<td>3-Month Fund Flow ($MM)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Vanguard</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>$70,097.57</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>BlackRock, Inc.</td>
<td>2</td>
<td>$55,791.59</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Invesco</td>
<td>3</td>
<td>$20,380.07</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>State Street</td>
<td>4</td>
<td>$16,097.65</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Dimensional</td>
<td>5</td>
<td>$9,362.99</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>JPMorgan Chase</td>
<td>6</td>
<td>$9,263.38</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Fidelity</td>
<td>7</td>
<td>$9,240.89</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Data: VettaFi</figcaption></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">A Conservative Product Range</h3>
Unlike some of its peers, Vanguard has opted for a more conservative route in its ETF offerings. The company does not offer leveraged ETFs, sticking strictly to equity and fixed-income products. 
This strategic choice highlights Vanguard&#8217;s focus on traditional investment vehicles over speculative or alternative assets. Vanguard&#8217;s portfolio notably lacks any commodities, currency, or Bitcoin-related ETFs.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Absence of Bitcoin and Crypto ETFs</h3>
This absence isn&#8217;t due to oversight but a deliberate decision. Vanguard has explicitly stated it has no plans to introduce a Bitcoin ETF or any other crypto-related products, distinguishing itself from other major ETF issuers — such as BlackRock, VanEck, Franklin Templeton, WisdomTree, Invesco, Fidelity, Global X, 21 Shares and ProShares – who have embraced the crypto bandwagon.
Why No Bitcoin ETF? Vanguard&#8217;s Reasoning
Vanguard&#8217;s stance on Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies is grounded in a cautious approach to investment merit and client needs. Janel Jackson, global head of ETF Capital Markets and broker &amp; index relations at Vanguard, has expressed skepticism about the role of cryptocurrencies in long-term portfolios. 
Citing crypto&#8217;s speculative nature, lack of inherent economic value, and potential to disrupt portfolio stability, Vanguard sees crypto as an &#8220;immature asset class.&#8221; 
Instead, the company invests its interest in blockchain technology for its potential to enhance capital market efficiency, steering clear of cryptocurrencies as investment products.
Now Read: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/24/03/37712624/tightening-the-tap-regional-banks-tech-stocks-bitcoin-brace-for-liquidity-crunch-as-fed-li">Tightening The Tap: Regional Banks, Tech Stocks, Bitcoin Brace For Liquidity Crunch As Fed Lifeline Ends</a>

Coverage of Bitcoin, Etherum, Ripple and all the latest digital currencies.

Cryptocurrency

5 Things You Need To Know About Vanguard ETFs: Why There's No Bitcoin ETF In Their Lineup?

As 2023 concludes, the bond market has witnessed a remarkable rally, bolstered by the strength of the<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/23/12/36058438/federal-reserve-to-implement-six-rate-cuts-in-2024-amid-economic-slowdown-says-ing"> U.S. economy and a reduction in inflationary pressures.</a>
Despite this, some analysts caution that investor optimism might be overly optimistic for the upcoming year, The Wall Street Journal&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/five-investors-on-how-to-navigate-the-bond-market-in-2024-d6e802d2?mod=hp_lead_pos3">reports</a>.
What Happened: This past year, the bond market&#39;s journey has been marked by significant volatility. The 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield, a key market indicator, has dramatically fluctuated.
Initially driven to highs not seen in over a decade by concerns over persistent high interest rates, these yields have since retreated due to various factors, including banking sector stresses and shifts in Federal Reserve policies, WSJ reports.&nbsp;
From its peak of over 5% in October, the highest in 16 years, the yield has retreated by a full percentage point, easing fears about its impact on broader economic factors such as mortgage and corporate loan rates.
There&#39;s a growing belief among economists and market participants in a &#39;soft landing&#39; scenario, where inflation recedes without triggering major economic downturns like increased unemployment or a recession.
However, the bond market is not without its challenges. Issues such as the expanding fiscal deficit, the impending need to refinance low-rated corporate debt, and the final phases of the Fed&#39;s anti-inflationary measures loom large.
Insights provided&nbsp;to the Journal&nbsp;by&nbsp;five seasoned investors reveal diverse perspectives on the future of inflation and the likelihood of a recession.
Also Read:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/23/12/36058725/from-bearish-to-bullish-major-analysts-predict-us-stock-markets-performance-in-2024">From Bearish To Bullish: Major Analysts Predict US Stock Market&#39;s Performance In 2024</a>
George Bory, the chief investment strategist for fixed income at Allspring Global Investments, told WSJ that the risks to the macroeconomy hinge on the market&rsquo;s most significant assumption: inflation&nbsp;will fall smoothly and orderly toward the Fed&rsquo;s 2% target.
&ldquo;Our base case is inflation does come down, but not as orderly as the market thinks,&rdquo; Bory said. &ldquo;Ultimately getting to 2% will be challenging for the Fed without a notable slowdown in growth.&rdquo;&nbsp;
James St. Aubin, the chief investment officer at Sierra Mutual Funds, expresses concerns about the combined effects of higher interest rates and stricter lending standards potentially leading the economy into a recession.
He warns of the potential for a sudden economic downturn: &quot;Everyone always sees a soft landing just before a recession. Then something happens. Things slow down abruptly.&quot;
On a more optimistic note, Rick Rieder, BlackRock&nbsp;chief investment officer of global fixed income, is enthusiastic about the prospects for 2024. He sees significant bond opportunities, favoring investment-grade bonds and European corporate debt. &quot;This is an environment where you can clip 6.5% to 7% without taking that risk,&quot; Rieder told the Journal.
Frances Donald, global chief economist at Manulife Investment Management, suggests that the market might be underestimating the chances of a recession or inflation dropping below the Fed&#39;s target. She advocates for investing in bonds despite potential economic headwinds.
Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo Global Management, emphasizes the importance of considering the bond supply and government fiscal policies. He believes the market will pay more attention to Treasury auctions than ever before, telling WSJ, &quot;The market needs to take the bond supply more seriously.&quot;
For investors seeking opportunities in the bond market, here are three ETFs to consider:
<ol>
<li>
iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (ARCA:AGG): Offers diverse exposure to U.S. investment-grade bonds, including government and corporate bonds. Ideal for stable, core bond investments.
</li>
<li>
Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/bnd#NASDAQ">BND</a>): Provides comprehensive access to the U.S. bond market, covering government, corporate, and municipal bonds. Suitable for broad market exposure.
</li>
<li>
SPDR Bloomberg Barclays High Yield Bond ETF (ARCA:JNK): Focuses on high-yield bonds with higher risk and return potential. Good for investors seeking greater income potential.
</li>
</ol>
Each ETF caters to different risk profiles and investment strategies, making them interesting options for diversifying an investment portfolio in the bond sector.
Now Read:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/23/12/36061721/wall-street-braces-for-2024-recession-economic-growth-to-slow-markets-to-rise-say-bullish-firms">Wall Street Braces For 2024 Recession: Economic Growth To Slow, Markets To Rise, Say Bullish Firms</a>
This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
Photo: Shutterstock

Investor Optimism Tested: Navigating 2024 Bond Market's Uncertain Terrain

The traditional 60/40 investment portfolio has recorded a remarkable year of growth in 2023, sharply rebounding from a disappointing year in 2022. As of Dec. 27, the year-to-date performance of the 60/40 portfolio, benchmarked by the iShares Core Growth Allocation ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AOR#NYSE">AOR</a>), <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/money/what-is-the-60-40-investment-strategy">stands at approximately 13%. </a>
This performance figure ranks as the third-best year for the strategy since its inception in 2008, trailing only behind the strong years of 2009 and 2019.
As we enter the new year, investors are pondering whether the favorable conditions that supported both equities and bonds in the second half of the year will endure.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">60/40 Portfolio In 2022-2023: From Downturn to Upswing</h2>
The 60/40 portfolio is a time-tested investment strategy known for its simplicity and effectiveness. It involves allocating 60% of the portfolio to stocks and 40% to bonds, with the aim to strike a balance between risk and reward.
Stocks offer the potential for higher returns but come with higher risk, while bonds generally provide lower but more stable returns. By combining both asset classes, the portfolio naturally diversifies, potentially reducing the risk of significant losses since stocks and bonds often react differently to market conditions.
In 2022, the traditional 60/40 portfolio faced one of its most challenging years due to the Fed&#8217;s aggressive interest rate hikes, which created strong headwinds for both equities and fixed-income assets.
The gauge fell as much as 17%, wiping out a sizable portion of the pandemic rally. 
An initial $1,000 investment in a 60/40 portfolio at the beginning of 2022 dipped to less than $800 by November of that year, only to rebound to its current value of $928.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="650" height="650" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/27172235/newplot-5-1.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-170022" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/27172235/newplot-5-1.jpeg 650w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/27172235/newplot-5-1-300x300.jpeg 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/27172235/newplot-5-1-150x150.jpeg 150w" sizes="(max-width: 650px) 100vw, 650px" /></figure>
However, as inflation subsided in 2023, traders began to anticipate a normalization of elevated interest rates, betting on the Federal Reserve reducing borrowing costs in 2024. 
Money markets currently factor in six rate cuts by 25 basis points next year, a figure substantially higher than the indications given by Federal Reserve officials at the latest meeting, with the dot-plot showing a median preference for 75-basis-point cuts. 
Read also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/23/08/33967223/why-the-6040-portfolio-rule-is-not-for-everyone-the-statistics-might-surprise-you">Why The 60/40 Portfolio Rule Is NOT For Everyone – The Statistics Might Surprise You</a>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Will the 60/40 Portfolio Continue to Rally in 2024?</h2>
Looking ahead to 2024, it remains to be seen whether the numerous rate cuts currently priced in by the market will be delivered by the Federal Reserve. 
If these rate cuts materialize, bond yields are likely to continue heading lower, benefiting fixed-income assets and potentially rate-sensitive stocks such as those in the technology, real estate, and financial sectors.
On the other hand, if the decline in inflation stalls or fresh pressures emerge, the Federal Reserve may find it inappropriate to deliver as many rate cuts as currently expected by market participants. 
This could lead to disappointment in the markets and potentially weigh on both equities and bonds.
In summary, the 60/40 portfolio has made a strong comeback in 2023, but its performance in 2024 will depend on whether the anticipated rate cuts materialize and how economic factors evolve.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">5 Strategies to Create a 60/40 Portfolio</h2>
Aside from the iShares Core Growth Allocation ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AOR#NYSE">AOR</a>), there are several other ways for investors to construct a 60/40 portfolio. 
Here are seven different approaches an investor can use to replicate a 60/40 portfolio, with each pairing a stock ETF with a bond ETF:
<ol>
<li>S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NYSE">TLT</a>): Combining SPY, which tracks the S&amp;P 500 Index, with TLT, focusing on long-term U.S. Treasury bonds, offers a balanced portfolio with exposure to the U.S. stock market and the stability of government bonds.</li>
<li>Vanguard Total World Stock ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VT#NYSE">VT</a>) and iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AGG#NYSE">AGG</a>): VT provides global stock market exposure, while AGG tracks the U.S. Aggregate Bond Index, diversifying bond exposure.</li>
<li>iShares MSCI ACWI ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ACWI#NYSE">ACWI</a>) and Vanguard Total International Bond ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BNDX#NYSE">BNDX</a>): ACWI offers global equity exposure, and BNDX focuses on non-U.S. bonds, providing international diversification.</li>
<li>iShares Core S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IVV#NYSE">IVV</a>) and Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BND#NYSE">BND</a>): Similar to SPY, IVV tracks the S&amp;P 500, and BND provides diversified exposure to the U.S. bond market.</li>
<li>Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VTI#NYSE">VTI</a>) and Vanguard Total World Bond ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BNDW#NYSE">BNDW</a>): VTI offers exposure to the entire U.S. stock market, and BNDW provides a globally diversified bond exposure.</li>
</ol>
Read now: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/23/12/36403950/treasury-etf-and-real-estate-sector-rise-together-as-30-year-yields-dip-below-4">Treasury ETF And Real Estate Sector Rise Together As 30-Year Yields Dip Below 4%</a>
Photo: Shutterstock

Tech

ACWI

BNDW

60/40 Portfolio Bounces Back From 2022 Slump: Is It The Right Investment Strategy For 2024?

New research from Goldman Sachs reveals that U.S. Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) have surpassed the threshold of $8 trillion in assets under management (AUM), setting an <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs">all-time high this week</a>. 
This milestone is another clear indicator of the robust health of the investment landscape in the United States, as major stock market indices trade at or near their record levels. 
The S&amp;P 500, for instance, has rallied by 25% year to date, trading at a mere 1% distance from its all-time highs. Tech stocks in the Nasdaq 100 have soared 53% year to date, hitting a <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/large-cap/23/12/36305091/nasdaq-100-hits-record-high-set-for-best-annual-performance-since-1999-tech-boom">record high on Tuesday.</a>
But the increase in the ETF market size isn't just about a bullish stock market. Rising assets among U.S. ETFs have also been driven by the influx of fresh capital from investors, as a testament of a broader optimistic sentiment.
Statistics from ETFdb.com shows that the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>), the largest ETF globally, saw an impressive $30.8 billion of inflows in December, raising its AUM to $478 billion. Similarly, another ETF tracking the S&amp;P 500, the Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VOO#NYSE">VOO</a>), witnessed $5.5 billion of inflows this month. The Invesco S&amp;P 500 Equal Weight ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/RSP#NYSE">RSP</a>) also saw inflows, amounting to $4 billion.
Investors have shown a keen interest in bond-related ETFs as well. For instance, the iShares 20 Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) has witnessed $3.6 billion of inflows so far this month, underlining the diversity of investor interest in both equity and bond markets, as the Federal Reserve&#8217;s stance shifts. 
Here are the top 10 U.S. ETFs with over $100 billion in assets:
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<th>ETF Name</th>
<th>Asset Class</th>
<th>Total Assets ($MM)</th>
<th>YTD Price Change</th>
<th>Avg. Daily Share Volume (3mo)</th>
<th>Previous Closing Price</th>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust </td>
<td>Equity</td>
<td>$459,320</td>
<td>25.29%</td>
<td>83,028,508</td>
<td>$471.97</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>iShares Core S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IVV#NYSE">IVV</a>)</td>
<td>Equity</td>
<td>$396,818</td>
<td>25.41%</td>
<td>5,025,149</td>
<td>$476.15</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF</td>
<td>Equity</td>
<td>$370,019</td>
<td>25.44%</td>
<td>4,786,040</td>
<td>$435.54</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VTT#NYSE">VTT</a>)</td>
<td>Equity</td>
<td>$344,291</td>
<td>25.04%</td>
<td>3,440,999</td>
<td>$236.33</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Invesco QQQ Trust Series I (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>)</td>
<td>Equity</td>
<td>$226,720</td>
<td>53.54%</td>
<td>50,701,398</td>
<td>$407.08</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VEA#NYSE">VEA</a>)</td>
<td>Equity</td>
<td>$120,812</td>
<td>14.85%</td>
<td>11,897,938</td>
<td>$46.65</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Vanguard Value ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VTV#NYSE">VTV</a>)</td>
<td>Equity</td>
<td>$106,321</td>
<td>8.14%</td>
<td>2,694,169</td>
<td>$148.94</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Vanguard Growth ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VTG#NYSE">VTG</a>)</td>
<td>Equity</td>
<td>$105,540</td>
<td>46.26%</td>
<td>924,069</td>
<td>$310.27</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>iShares Core MSCI EAFE ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IEFA#NYSE">IEFA</a>)</td>
<td>Equity</td>
<td>$104,985</td>
<td>15.03%</td>
<td>8,991,273</td>
<td>$69.57</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BND#NYSE">BND</a>)</td>
<td>Bond</td>
<td>$103,544</td>
<td>4.92%</td>
<td>7,811,976</td>
<td>$73.25</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</figure>
Now read: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/23/12/36300632/nasdaq-s-p-500-futures-bounce-higher-as-santa-claus-rally-awaits-analyst-says-december-typically-se">Nasdaq, S&amp;P 500 Futures Bounce Higher As Santa Claus Rally Awaits: Analyst Says December Typically &#8216;Second-Half Story&#8217;</a>
Photo: Shutterstock

IEFA

Rydex ETF Trust Rydex S&P Equal Weight ETF

US ETFs Surpass $8 Trillion In Assets: Top 10 Funds Holding Over $100B Each

In recent weeks, several bond exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have experienced a significant surge in inflows, indicating a <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/money/best-bond-etf">heightened interest among investors. </a>
This shift coincided with a market that significantly upped bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts for 2024, backed by a robust and ongoing <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/inflation">disinflationary trend</a> in the U.S. economy. 
Speculators have gone as far as factoring in an initial rate cut as early as March 2024, with whispers of a total of five rate cuts by December 2024.
But which bond ETFs are currently piquing investors&#8217; interest?
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">From &#8216;Cash-Like&#8217; to &#8216;Equity-Like&#8217;</h2>
While the third quarter in 2023 witnessed a notable uptick in inflows into cash-linked bond ETFs, primarily those investing in short-dated Treasury bonds and bills, the latest trends are veering towards more aggressive fixed-income strategies.
Investors are strategically positioning themselves in anticipation of an imminent U-turn in Fed&#8217;s monetary policy stance, eyeing a select group of bond ETFs that have weathered the storm during the recent spate of interest rate hikes.
Their bullish stance on riskier bond ETFs underscores a burgeoning belief that the bond market landscape could undergo a substantial recalibration in the coming months, as they brace for a more accommodating monetary policy environment.
These ETFs encompass a diverse range, including long-term Treasury bonds, emerging-market bonds, and high-yield corporate bonds. 
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Top 10 Bond ETFs by Fund Inflows in the Past Month</h2>
<figure class="wp-block-table"> 
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Name</th>
<th>Fund Flows (1-month)</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>iShares Trust &#8211; iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/HYG#NYSE">HYG</a>)</td>
<td>$3.69 bn</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>iShares Trust &#8211; iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AGG#NYSE">AGG</a>)</td>
<td>$2.62 bn</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>SPDR Series Trust &#8211; SPDR Bloomberg High Yield Bond ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/JNK#NYSE">JNK</a>)</td>
<td>$1.99 bn</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>iShares Trust &#8211; iShares J.P. Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EMB#NASDAQ">EMB</a>)</td>
<td>$1.89 bn</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>iShares Trust &#8211; iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>)</td>
<td>$1.62 bn</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Vanguard Bond Index Funds &#8211; Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BND#NASDAQ">BND</a>)</td>
<td>$1.56 bn</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>iShares Trust &#8211; iShares Broad USD High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USHY#NYSE">USHY</a>)</td>
<td>$1.31 bn</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Vanguard Scottsdale Funds &#8211; Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VGLT#NASDAQ">VGLT</a>)</td>
<td>$665.99 bn</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Vanguard Charlotte Funds &#8211; Vanguard Total International Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BNDX#NASDAQ">BNDX</a>)</td>
<td>$641.06 bn</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>iShares Trust &#8211; iShares 5-10 Year Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IGIB#NYSE">IGIB</a>)</td>
<td>$216.67 bn</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</figure>
Read Now: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs/specialty-etfs/23/12/36075348/golds-record-high-why-havent-gold-miners-followed-suit">Gold&#8217;s Record High: Why Haven&#8217;t Gold Miners Followed Suit?</a>
Photo: Shutterstock

Emerging Markets

Emerging Market ETFs

IGIB

USHY

VGLT

Investors Pour Billions To Aggressive Bond ETFs, Banking On Multiple Fed Rate Cuts in 2024

Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VOO#NYSE">VOO</a>)가 올해 연간 유입액 1,000억 달러를 돌파하며 모든 ETF 역사상 가장 높은 수치를 기록했다.
ETF.com의 데이터에 따르면, 이 펀드는 투자자들로부터 1,010억 7천만 달러의 신규 자금을 유치했으며, 이는 두 번째로 가까운 경쟁자인 iShares Core S&amp;P 500 ETF(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IVV#NYSE">IVV</a>)의 592억 달러와 SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>)의 229억 달러를 합친 것보다도 많다.
수조 달러 규모의 상장지수펀드(ETF) 산업에서 이러한 추세는 세계 최대 ETF인 SPY가 오랜 기간 유지해온 1위 자리를 잃을 위기에 처했는지에 대한 논란을 불러일으키고 있다.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">$VOO가 내년 세계 최대 ETF가 될 가능성</h3>
세계 최대 ETF의 타이틀은 여전히 자산운용(AUM) 6,200억 달러를 보유한 SPY가 차지하고 있지만, VOO와의 격차는 현재 4,100억 달러로 좁혀졌다.
ETF.com의 수석 애널리스트인 수미트 로이(Sumit Roy)는 &#8220;이것은 VOO가 내년에는 SPY를 제치고 세계 최대 ETF로 올라설 가능성이 매우 현실적이라는 것을 의미한다&#8221;고 언급했다.
그는 또한 &#8220;그러한 일이 발생하더라도, SPY의 ETF 순위 하락이 거기서 멈추지 않을 수도 있다. IVV는 5,650억 달러의 AUM으로 SPY를 쫓고 있다&#8221;고 덧붙였다.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">세계 AUM 기준 상위 10개 ETF</h3>
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes">
<table style="overflow:auto; height: 90px; display: block;">
<thead>
<tr>
<th>ETF 이름</th>
<th>AUM ($ 억)</th>
<th>운영비율</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF TRUST</td>
<td>620.26</td>
<td>0.09%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF</td>
<td>579.35</td>
<td>0.03%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>iShares Core S&amp;P 500 ETF</td>
<td>559.64</td>
<td>0.03%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Vanguard Total Stock Market (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VTI#NYSE">VTI</a>)</td>
<td>460.11</td>
<td>0.03%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>)</td>
<td>310.27</td>
<td>0.20%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Vanguard Growth ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VUG#NYSE">VUG</a>)</td>
<td>151.13</td>
<td>0.04%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VEA#NYSE">VEA</a>)</td>
<td>135.42</td>
<td>0.06%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Vanguard Value ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VTV#NYSE">VTV</a>)</td>
<td>133.31</td>
<td>0.04%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Vanguard Total Bond Market (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BND#NYSE">BND</a>)</td>
<td>119.17</td>
<td>0.03%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">데이터 출처: ETF.com</figcaption></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">운영비율: VOO의 기관 투자자 유입에 중요한 요소</h3>
VOO의 성공을 이끄는 주요 요인은 0.03%라는 매우 낮은 운영 비율(expenses)로, 이는 SPY의 0.0945%의 3분의 1도 되지 않는다.
이러한 차이는 특히 수십억 달러를 관리하는 기관 투자자들에게 중요한 의미를 지닌다.
예를 들어, 소매 투자자가 연초에 VOO에 5,000달러를 투자하면 연간 비용이 단 1.50달러에 불과하지만, 같은 투자액을 SPY에 투자할 경우 4.73달러가 소요되어 사실상 무시할 수 있는 차이이다.
반면, 기관 투자자가 VOO에 50억 달러를 배정하면 수수료가 단 150만 달러에 불과하지만, SPY에 투자할 경우 473만 달러가 들며, 무려 323만 달러의 차이가 발생한다.
이 간단한 예시는 운영비율의 차이가 ETF에 대한 <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-google-interstitial="false">대규모 투자자 유입</a>의 중요한 요인이라는 것을 설명해 줄 수 있다.
지금 읽어보세요:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/24/11/42148340/black-friday-cyber-monday-deals-on-wall-street-why-buying-walmart-or-amazon-before-the-holidays-might-backfire">월마트, 아마존 주식이 이번 홀리데이 시즌에 주춤할 수 있는 이유</a></li>
</ul>
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뱅가드의 S&P 500 ETF는 2024년에 1,000억 달러 유입 기록: SPY의 1위 자리에 위협?

폭발적인 <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-google-interstitial="false">ETF들의 성장</a>이 금융 환경을 재편하고 있으며, 운용 자산이 현재 15조 달러의 이정표에 가까워지고 있다.
최근 분석에서 JP모건의 전략가 니콜라오스 파니기르초글로(Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou)는 이러한 엄청난 변화의 의미를 자세히 조사하면서 ETF가 투자자 행동, 유동성 패턴 및 심지어 시장 위험까지도 어떻게 재정의하고 있는지를 조명했다.
1. 소매 투자자 심리가 변동성을 주도 
파니기르초글로는 ETF의 지배력이 커짐에 따라 소매 투자자들이 시장 심리를 주도하는 데 더 큰 영향을 미치게 되었다고 지적한다. 기관 투자자들과 달리 소매 거래자들은 대개 짧은 시간적 시야를 가지고 있어, 심리가 변동할 때 시장 트렌드에 갑작스럽고 확대된 변화를 초래할 수 있다.
2. 더 긴 상승세와 더 급격한 조정 
이 분석가는 ETF가 모멘텀 중심의 시장을 조장하여 상승장이 지속되는 동안 장기간의 랠리를 촉진한다고 강조한다. 그러나 시장이 반전될 때, 능동적 관리 보호 장치가 결여되어 급격한 조정과 변동성이 증가할 수 있다.
3. 대형주로 자금이 집중 
대부분의 ETF가 시가총액 가중 방식으로 운영되기 때문에 대형주에 불균형적으로 자본이 집중된다. 파니기르초글로는 이 경향이 메가캡의 가치 평가를 부풀리고, 소형주의 자리를 축소시켜 자본 할당에 위험을 초래할 수 있다고 경고한다.
엔비디아, 애플 및 마이크로소프트와 같은 기업들은 현재 미국 주식 시장에서 각각 3조 달러 이상의 시가총액을 차지하고 있다.
4. 유동성이 장 마감에 집중 
ETF가 거래 세션 종료 무렵에 리밸런싱을 하면서 유동성이 이러한 시점에 집중되고 있다. 파니기르초글로는 S&amp;P 500 거래의 약 1/3이 이제 하루의 마지막 10분 동안 이루어져, 집중된 활동의 피드백 루프를 만든다고 지적한다.
5. 몇몇 ETF에 위험이 집중 
SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>)와 Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 ETF(NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>)와 같은 대형 ETF의 등장은 시스템적 위험을 초래했다. 파니기르초글로는 이들의 규모와 중요성이 주식 선물과 경쟁하고 있어, 시장이 대규모 단일 상품 흐름에 취약해진다고 주장한다.
6. 알고리즘 트레이더가 성장 
특히 채권 ETF는 전자 및 알고리즘 거래를 강화했다고 파니기르초글로가 언급했다. 비은행 시장 조성자들이 이제 고수익, 저마진 거래를 활용하여 채권 시장의 유동성 제공을 지배하고 있다.
iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AGG#NYSE">AGG</a>)와 Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BND#NYSE">BND</a>)와 같은 인기 있는 채권 ETF는 미국에서 거래되는 가장 크고 유동적인 채권 시장 ETF 중 일부이다.
7. 지수 변경이 큰 영향을 미친다 
파니기르초글로는 ETF 주도의 자금 흐름이 지수 리밸런싱의 영향을 확대했다고 강조한다. 주요 지수에 편입되는 주식은 비정상적으로 큰 상승을 경험하는 반면, 제외되는 주식은 기본적 가치가 정당화할 수 있는 것보다 급격한 하락을 겪는다.
8. 기업 거버넌스가 약화 
패시브 펀드가 지배적이 되면서 파니기르초글로는 기업 활동이 감소하고 있다고 본다. 능동적 매니저들은 거버넌스 변경을 추진할 유인이 있는 반면, 패시브 펀드는 그렇지 않아 감독이 약화될 수 있다.
9. 시장 효율성이 하락 
패시브 투자로의 전환은 차익 거래 기회를 줄여 파니기르초글로는 더 지속적인 가격 왜곡을 초래한다고 주장한다. 이는 능동적 매니저들을 다시 유인할 수 있지만, 그들의 알파 추출 능력은 약화되었다.
10. 패시브 투자 한계가 가까워질 수 있다 
파니기르초글로는 패시브 투자에 대한 자연스러운 한계가 있을 수 있다고 제안한다. 만약 시장 비효율성이 너무 커지면 능동적 관리자가 복귀하여 ETF에서 능동적으로 관리되는 펀드로 자본이 다시 유입될 수 있다.
ETF 혁명은 분명히 투자의 민주화를 가져왔지만, 파니기르초글로는 그 급속한 성장이 의도치 않은 결과를 초래한다고 경고한다.
집중된 유동성에서 시스템적 위험 증가에 이르기까지, 이 환경은 경계를 요구하는 방식으로 진화하고 있다.
ETF 자산이 15조 달러에 가까워짐에 따라, 패시브의 지배력이 정체될 것인지, 아니면 그 영향력이 이제 막 시작된 것인지에 대한 질문이 제기된다.

다음 읽기: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/24/11/42107863/us-futures-head-lower-as-nvidia-reports-slowdown-in-quarterly-revenue-growth-expert-says-market-weakness-is-perfectly-normal-but-late-november-is-still-possible">엔비디아 실적이 투자자들을 실망시키면서 미국 선물이 하락: 전문가가 시장 약세는 &#8216;완전히 정상적&#8217;이라고 말했지만 11월 하순 반등은 여전히 가능하다고 주장</a></li>
</ul>
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안정성을 위해 채권 및 채권 ETF를 찾는 투자자들은 도널드 트럼프 대통령 당선인의 관세 접근 방식으로 인해 <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/treasury-yields">수익률 상승 압박</a>을 가할 수 있으므로 변동성이 높아질 수 있다.
무슨 일이 (What Happened): 채권 수익률은 목요일 연방준비제도(연준)의 25베이시스포인트 금리 인하 이후 계속 상승하고 있다. 10년 만기 국채 수익률은 트럼프의 재정 정책에 대한 시장의 추측에 따라 4.34%로 상승했다.
이러한 변화는 연준이 차입 비용을 낮추려는 노력을 복잡하게 만들며, 개별 채권 보유자들과 채권 ETF 투자자들에게 우려를 불러일으킨다. 세금 인하와 예상되는 관세의 배경은 연방준비제의 <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/11/41814589/why-trumps-boost-to-treasury-yields-inflation-expectations-may-weaken-feds-efforts-">금리 인하 능력을 제한</a>할 수 있다.
또한 읽어보세요: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/24/11/41886697/two-ideas-famed-stock-market-forecasters-agree-on-for-2025">트럼프의 승리가 두 명의 시장 전문가를 소형주 및 금융주에 베팅하게 만든 이유</a>
9월 중순 이후로 국채 수익률은 70베이시스포인트 이상 급등하여 채권 가격에 추가 압박을 가하고 주요 채권 ETF에 영향을 미쳤다. BofA 글로벌 리서치는 국채 수익률 전망을 4.25%-4.75% 범위로 조정했다고 로이터가 보도했다. 이러한 상승하는 수익률 환경은 채권에 도전 과제를 제기한다. 높은 수익률은 채권 가격의 하락과 연결되며, 이는 채권 ETF 투자자들의 수익을 잠식할 수 있다.
왜 중요한가 (Why It Matters): 로이터에 따르면, 책임 있는 연방 예산 위원회는 트럼프의 제안된 재정 정책이 향후 10년간 국가 부채에 약 7.75조 달러를 추가할 것이라고 추정한다. 경제학자들, 은행들 및 분석가들은 이 <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/personal-finance/24/09/40961812/economists-warn-trumps-plans-for-tax-cuts-tariffs-and-deportation-could-trigger-skyrocketing-inf">계획이 인플레이션을 악화시키고 부채를 지속 불가능하게 만들 것</a>이라고 경고했다.
다양한 채권 시장 세그먼트에 대한 노출을 제공하는 채권 ETF는 채권 수익률이 상승함에 따라 이러한 재정적 압박의 영향을 받을 가능성이 높다.
수익률 상승은 채권 ETF 투자자에게 더 매력적인 소득을 제공할 수 있지만, 수익률이 계속 상승함에 따라 가격 하락과 관련된 위험이 커질 수도 있다.
월요일에는 10개의 주요 채권 ETF가 주로 하락 마감했다:
<ul>
<li>Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BND#NASDAQ">BND</a>): $72.95, 0.19% 하락.</li>
<li>iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AGG#NYSE">AGG</a>): $98.28, 0.22% 하락.</li>
<li>SPDR Portfolio Aggregate Bond ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPAB#NYSE">SPAB</a>): $25.37, 0.2% 하락.</li>
<li>iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/LQD#NYSE">LQD</a>): $109.64, 0.19% 하락.</li>
<li>Vanguard Short-Term Corporate Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VCSH#NASDAQ">VCSH</a>): $78.31, 0.077% 하락.</li>
<li>iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>): $92.04, 0.49% 하락.</li>
<li>Vanguard Intermediate-Term Corporate Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VCIT#NASDAQ">VCIT</a>): $81.49, 0.20% 하락.</li>
<li>iShares U.S. Treasury Bond ETF (BATS:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOVT#BATS">GOVT</a>): $22.73, 0.20% 하락.</li>
<li>SPDR Bloomberg High Yield Bond ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/JNK#NYSE">JNK</a>): $97.01, 0.06% 하락.</li>
<li>Vanguard Total International Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BNDX#NASDAQ">BNDX</a>): $49.93, 0.08% 상승.</li>
</ul>
트럼프 하의 채권 수익률 상승과 재정적 확장으로 인해 채권 ETF는 변동성을 계속해서 경험할 수 있다.
채권 투자자들은 높은 수익률의 매력을 채권 가격 하락의 잠재적 위험과 비교해야 할 필요가 있다. 특히 고수익과 장기 국채 세그먼트에서는 시장 변화가 가장 뚜렷할 것으로 예상된다.
다음 읽어볼 내용:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://kr.benzinga.com/news/usa/economy/%ED%8A%B8%EB%9F%BC%ED%94%84%EC%9D%98-%EC%84%B8%EA%B8%88-%EC%9D%B8%ED%95%98-%EA%B4%80%EC%84%B8-%EB%8F%99%EB%AC%BC%EC%A0%81-%EC%B6%A9%EB%8F%99%EC%9D%B4-sp-500-%EC%88%98%EC%9D%B5%EC%97%90/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">트럼프의 세금 인하, 관세, &#8216;동물적 충동&#8217;이 S&amp;P 500 실적에 미칠 영향</a></li>
</ul>
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