Invesco MSCI Global Timber ETF (ARCA: CUT)

에 대한 최신 뉴스 Invesco MSCI Global Timber ETF (ARCA:CUT)

Guggenheim MSCI Global Timber ETF

Consumer Cyclical

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Consumer Defensive

Healthcare

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The fund generally will invest at least 90% of its total assets in the securities that comprise the underlying index, as well as American depositary receipts (ADRs) and global depositary receipts (GDRs) that represent securities in the underlying index. The underlying index is comprised of equity securities of companies that are primarily engaged in the ownership and management of forests and timberlands and the production of finished products that use timber as a raw material. The fund is non-diversified.

Smurfit Westrock Plc

International Paper Co.

Packaging Corp. Of America

Amcor P L C

Weyerhaeuser Co.

Avery Dennison Corp.

Upm-kymmene Oyj

Graphic Packaging Holding Co

Mondi Plc

Svenska Cellulosa Ab Sca

Invesco MSCI Global Timber ETF

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ETFs

CCSO

LBAY

상하이에서 뉴욕까지 표준 40피트 컨테이너 상품을 배송하는 데 드는 비용은 거의 10,000달러까지 상승했다. 수에즈 운하에서 후티 반군을 피하기 위해 화물선이 아프리카를 돌며 먼 길을 가고 있기 때문이다.

선사들이 위험한 수에즈 운하를 피하고, 트럼프 관세 우려에 컨테이너 운임 비용 상승

CUTcoin

CANADIAN UTILITIS PREF EE by Canadian Utilities Ltd.

Canadian Utilities Ltd

Cutera Inc

Graphic Packaging Holding Company (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GPK#NYSE">GPK</a>) shares are trading lower premarket Wednesday. On Tuesday, the Atlanta-based company stated that severe weather reduced production <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/pressreleases/24/09/n40696332/graphic-packaging-holding-company-comments-on-operating-conditions-and-updates-full-year-2024-outl" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">at two paperboard facilities in July</a>.
In August, an electrical substation failure at a third facility caused further disruptions and costs.
Consequently, Graphic Packaging lowered the outlook for adjusted EBITDA by $20 million to $25 million<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/calendars/guidance" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener"> for the third quarter of 2024</a>.
Graphic Packaging also anticipates full-year 2024 results to be below the midpoint of the previously forecasted adjusted EBITDA range of $1.73 billion to $1.83 billion and Adjusted EPS range of $2.65 to $2.85 <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/pressreleases/24/07/n40032260/graphic-packaging-holding-company-reports-second-quarter-2024-financial-results" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">versus a consensus of $2.70</a>.
In July, Graphic Packaging Holding reported second-quarter adjusted EPS of 60 cents, beating the 57-cent estimate, while sales of $2.24 billion <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/pressreleases/24/07/n40032260/graphic-packaging-holding-company-reports-second-quarter-2024-financial-results" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">missed the $2.26 billion estimate</a>.
Investors can gain exposure to the stock via Invesco MSCI Global Timber ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CUT#NYSE">CUT</a>) and Northern Lights Fund Trust IV Monarch Dividend Plus Index ETF (BATS:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MDPL#BATS">MDPL</a>).
Price Action: Graphic Packaging shares are down 1.09% at $29.32 premarket at the last check Wednesday.
Read Next:
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com//node/40705974">Uber Rival Lyft To Lay Off 1% Of Employees, Sell Assets To Reduce Costs</a></li>
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Disclaimer:&nbsp;This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.

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MDPL

Severe Weather Hits Graphic Packaging's Operations, Cuts Outlook

The cost to ship a standard 40-foot container of goods from Shanghai to New York has <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/24/02/37014564/red-sea-crisis-hits-maersk-outlook-oversupply-will-cause-price-pressure-impact-results">risen to nearly $10,000</a>.
That&#8217;s because cargo ships are taking the long way around Africa to avoid Houthi rebels in the Suez Canal.
A much longer route puts a squeeze on container vessels and ultimately leads to higher shipping rates on things like toys and auto parts.
The Drewry World Container Index&#8216;s spot rate for such a shipment hit $9,387 on July 11, up more than double the rate from February, Reuters reported. 
Shipping rates may soar even higher. Greg Davidson, CEO of Lalo, told Reuters he expects $20,000 per container.
Importers may also rush to ship goods to the U.S. Fears are spreading that imports could face sweeping tariffs if former President Donald Trump wins the 2024 election in November. 
Read Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/23/12/36411365/shipping-giant-maersk-eyes-development-of-green-methanol-bunkering-infrastructure-in-yokohama-de">Shipping Giant Maersk Eyes Development Of Green Methanol Bunkering Infrastructure In Yokohama: Details</a>
The closely watched Shanghai Containerized Freight Index rate for Shanghai to the U.S. West Coast topped $8,100 this month to set a new record. Sea cargo volumes remain below early pandemic highs.
Drewry&#8217;s index had the rate on that trade lane at around 60% of its pandemic peak of $12,400 per container.
Price Action: Exchange-traded funds that track shipping container stocks saw modest gains and declines by Monday&#8217;s late-afternoon trading.
First Trust US Equity Opportunities ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FPX#NYSE">FPX</a>) gained 0.85%, while Leatherback Long/Short Alternative Yield ETF&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/LBAY#NYSE">LBAY</a>) inched up 0.01% and Invesco MSCI Global Timber ETF&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CUT#NYSE">CUT</a>) slipped 0.06%.
Carbon Collective Climate Solutions U.S. Equity ETF&nbsp;(NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CCSO#NASDAQ">CCSO</a>) declined 0.40% and ProShares UltraShort Materials&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SMN#NYSE">SMN</a>) slipped 0.42%.
Read Now:
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/05/39108236/joint-us-and-uk-airstrikes-target-yemens-houthi-rebels-resulting-in-16-fatalities-and-42-injuries">Joint US And UK Airstrikes Target Yemen&#8217;s Houthi Rebels, Resulting In 16 Fatalities And 42 Injuries</a></li>
</ul>

Container Costs Rise As Shippers Skip Dangerous Suez Canal, Stress Over Trump Tariffs

International Paper Company&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IP#NYSE">IP</a>) shares are trading higher after it provided an update on its possible offer for&nbsp;DS Smith plc&nbsp;(OTC:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DITHF#OTC">DITHF</a>).
International Paper confirmed significant progress in reciprocal due diligence as facilitated by the&nbsp;<a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/pressreleases/24/04/n38087168/further-statement-regarding-possible-offer-for-ds-smith-plc" rel="noreferrer noopener">DS Smith Board and Management.</a>
As part of the combination, International Paper intends to seek a secondary listing of its shares on the London Stock Exchange.
Mark Sutton, Chairman and CEO said, &#8220;Bringing International Paper together with DS Smith is a logical next step in International Paper&#8217;s strategy to create value by strengthening our packaging businesses in North America and Europe. By combining the strengths of both companies, we believe we can enhance our offering of sustainable packaging solutions for customers in attractive and growing markets.&#8221;
Synergies: International Paper expects the business combination to generate significant synergies and drive value creation for both companies&#8217; shareholders.
The Directors expects the combined International Paper and DS Smith to deliver pre-tax cash synergies of at least $514 million (£407 million) on an annual run-rate basis by the end of the fourth year following completion of the combination.
Of this, $474 million (£376 million) of cost synergies is expected to be derived from the operational synergies across the combined network of mills, box plants, and global supply chain and reduction of duplicative corporate and business overhead expenses.&nbsp;
International Paper anticipates the total costs to achieve the synergies to be about $370 million (£293 million).
The company projects about 33% of these synergies to be achieved by the end of the first year following completion, with roughly 66% and 95% achieved by the end of the second and third years,&nbsp;<a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/calendars/guidance" rel="noreferrer noopener">all on a run-rate basis, respectively</a>.
The business combination is expected to boost International Paper&#8217;s margins through synergies and immediately accretive to EPS.&nbsp;
As of December 31, 2023, cash and temporary investments&nbsp;<a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/24/02/36893318/why-international-paper-shares-are-falling-today" rel="noreferrer noopener">stood at $1.11 billion</a>.
&nbsp;Investors can gain exposure to the stock via&nbsp;IShares Global Timber &amp; Forestry ETF&nbsp;(NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/WOOD#NASDAQ">WOOD</a>) and&nbsp;Invesco MSCI Global Timber ETF&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CUT#NYSE">CUT</a>).
Price Action: IP shares are up 0.91% at $39.42 on the last check Thursday.&nbsp;

Large Cap

DITHF

iShares S&P Global Timber & Forestry Index Fund

WOOD

London Calling: International Paper Eyes Secondary listing As Part Of Proposed DS Smith Combination

Retail investors can make money in the commodities markets. Lumber is a prime&nbsp;example right now.
The soaring prices of lumber have become mainstream news. The price per thousand board feet has moved from $320 to $1,675 over the past year, the highest it has ever been.
Hedge funds use complicated strategies to trade these markets. The strategies include the use of derivatives, swaps&nbsp;and futures. But there are also ways for everyday investors to get exposure to these markets.
They can use ETFs, such as the&nbsp;iShares Global Timber &amp; Forestry ETF (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/wood#NASDAQ">WOOD</a>) and the Invesco MSCI Global Timber ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/cut#NYSE">CUT</a>).
See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/04/20645960/lumber-prices-soar-amid-shortage-what-you-need-to-know">Lumber Prices Soar Amid Shortage: What You Need To Know</a>
WOOD is designed to follow an index of equities that are in the timber and forest industry. As the price of lumber increases, many of these companies become more profitable.
If lumber prices continue to move higher, so should the price of WOOD.
<img alt="wood.png" src="https://www.benzinga.com/files/u344550/wood.png" style="height:400px; width:640px" />
CUT seeks to track the MSCI ACWI IMI Timber Select Capped Index (Index). This index measures the performance of securities that own and manage forests, timberlands and production of products that use timber as raw materials.
If lumber prices continue to soar, the price of CUT should keep moving higher.
<img alt="cut.png" src="https://www.benzinga.com/files/u344550/cut.png" style="height:400px; width:744px" />

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Commodities

Markets

2 ETFs To Play The Lumber Shortage

After losing momentum in August, new home sales in the United States turned around. Sales of new U.S. single-family homes suddenly grew in September, touching the highest level in about 10 years, and defying economists&#39; expectations of a 0.9% decline. The percent sales surge was the highest since January 1992, as per CNBC. &nbsp;Notably, new home sales slumped 3.4% in August (read: <a href="https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/276794/after-raft-of-weak-data-what-lies-ahead-for-housing-etfs">After Raft of Weak Data, What Lies Ahead for Housing ETFs?</a>).
<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-25/u-s-new-home-sales-unexpectedly-jump-to-highest-since-2007">According to the Commerce Department</a>, new home sales jumped 18.9% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 667,000 units last month thanks to an uptick in sales in all four regions. The figure came in considerably higher than August&#39;s upwardly revised sales pace of 561,000 units. Investors should note that new home sales make up about 11% of overall home sales.
The housing market has long been under pressure due to low inventory, lack of skilled labor and shortages of lands. However, the latest optimism gives different signals. Homebuilder confidence ticked up to a <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/17/homebuilder-confidence-jumps-to-6-month-high-in-october.html">six-month</a> high in October.&nbsp;
Why the Surge? 
Need for reconstruction post hurricanes have probably given a boost to home sales. In Houston, many homes were under water <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/17/homebuilder-confidence-jumps-to-6-month-high-in-october.html">during Hurricane Harvey</a>, and as soon as the situation improved, demand for repairs went up. And for fully-ravaged homes, the need was even more (read: <a href="https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/273806/home-retailer-etfs-set-to-gain-after-harvey">Home Retailer ETFs Set to Gain After Harvey</a>).
As per an article published on <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/17/homebuilder-confidence-jumps-to-6-month-high-in-october.html">CNBC.com</a>, &quot;the number of homes destroyed in the hurricane is higher than the total number of regular new home permits estimated for Houston this year.&quot;
Though things could turn sour as treasury yields are on the rise on faster Fed policy tightening expectations. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes was 2.44% on Oct 25, 2017, up from the month&#39;s lowest level of 2.28% on Oct 13. Since housing is a rate-sensitive sector, it may underperform in a rising rate environment.
Plus, higher <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/17/homebuilder-confidence-jumps-to-6-month-high-in-october.html">material prices and labor</a> crunch may hurt the space over the long term as prices may shoot up. Still investors can play the space as soon as momentum returns. Below we highlight a few ETFs that could benefit from the recent bounce (see: <a href="https://www.zacks.com/funds/etfs/etf-categories/Materials-ETFs-15">all the Materials ETFs here</a>).
SPDR S&amp;P Homebuilders ETF XHB
One of the most-popular choices in the homebuilding space, XHB, holds about 35 securities in its basket with AUM of $1.07 billion. Expense ratio comes in at 0.35%.
iShares US Home Construction ETF ITB
With AUM of $2.04 billion, it holds a basket of 47 stocks while charges 44 bps in annual fees.
Guggenheim MSCI Global Timber ETF CUT
As per a <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/17/homebuilder-confidence-jumps-to-6-month-high-in-october.html">recently-published article</a> on CNBC.com, the commodity futures price for lumber increased 21% from the end of August, the time Harvey hit America. This should result in a rise in stock prices of the companies that are in the ownership and management of forests and timberlands and production of finished goods which use timber as raw material.
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	<a href="http://www.zacks.com/registration/pfp/?ALERT=ETF225&amp;adid=BENZ_CONTENT_ETF_ARTCAT_ETF_NEWS_AND_COMMENTARY&amp;d_alert=rd_final_rank&amp;t=ITB&amp;split=1&amp;cid=CS-BENZ-FT-280705">ISHARS-US HO CO (ETF:ITB): ETF Research Reports</a> 
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Econ #s

iShares Dow Jones US Homenstruction Index Fund

3 ETFs To Buy As New Home Sales Surge

In the wake of Hurricane Harvey and in anticipation of Hurricane Irma, some investors have been paying renewed attention to timber and forestry exchange-traded funds. The dominant names in that group are the Guggenheim MSCI Global Timber ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/cut#NYSE">CUT</a>) and the iShares Global Timber &amp; Forestry ETF (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/wood#NASDAQ">WOOD</a>).
&nbsp;
Last week, CUT and WOOD rose 4.1 percent and 4.8 percent, respectively, with CUT, the Guggenheim offering, hitting an all-time high on Friday. WOOD, the iShares ETF, is up nearly 21 percent year-to-date while CUT is higher by 19 percent.
WOOD &ldquo;is the larger of the two funds, having debuted in June of 2008 and the ETF traded at a new 52-week high just yesterday [Sept. 7] before tailing off a bit. The fund only averages about 16,000 shares traded daily on a one-month trailing basis, so it is not exactly a popular or heavily trafficked fund,&rdquo; said <a href="http://streetonefinancial.com/">Street One Financial</a> vice president Paul Weisbruch in a note out Friday.&nbsp;
<h3>Inside The Timber ETFs</h3>
WOOD, which recently turned 9 years old, has $286.1 million in assets under management. The ETF tracks the S&amp;P Global Timber &amp; Forestry Index and holds 26 stocks. WOOD is a global ETF with U.S. timber names accounting for 40.3 percent of the fund&#39;s weight. Canada, Brazil and Japan combine for over a third of the ETF&#39;s geographic exposure.
CUT follows the MSCI ACWI IMI Timber Select Capped Index. That benchmark &ldquo;is designed to measure the performance of securities that are engaged in the ownership and management of forests and timberlands and production of finished products which use timber as raw material. The index captures large, mid and small-cap stocks across 23 developed markets countries and 23 emerging markets countries,&rdquo;<a href="https://www.guggenheiminvestments.com/etf/fund/cut-guggenheim-msci-global-timber-etf"> according to Guggenheim</a>.
CUT holds 77 stocks, or nearly triple the size of WOOD&#39;s roster. U.S. stocks account for almost 44 percent of the ETF&#39;s weight with Finland and the U.K. combining for 18 percent.
<h3>More Attention</h3>
It is possible that WOOD and CUT &ldquo;could certainly become active given the headlines regarding the devastating weather and the inevitable rebuilding process that will take place,&rdquo; said Weisbruch. &ldquo;WOOD has seen respectable inflows year-to-date, to the tune of about $31 million in while CUT has seen modest outflows of about $10 million.&rdquo;
Related Links:
<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/17/09/10030956/make-america-great-again-with-this-new-etf">MAGA With This ETF</a>
<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/17/09/10030947/goldman-sachs-enters-junk-bond-etf-fray">A New Junk Bond ETF&nbsp;</a>
<iframe src="https://fast.wistia.net/embed/iframe/ustlueul34" title="Wistia video player" allowtransparency="true" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" class="wistia_embed" name="wistia_embed" allowfullscreen mozallowfullscreen webkitallowfullscreen oallowfullscreen msallowfullscreen width="640" height="360"></iframe>
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Image Credit: Hurricane Matthew, public domain

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Hurricane Investment Prep: Timber ETFs

Investors were enthused earlier this week by some strong housing data. New home sales jumped 12.4 percent in July to a seasonally adjusted rate of 654,000 annual units, well ahead of economists&#39; estimate of 580,000 units.
Although the June number was revised lower to 582,000 from 592,000, the July report was enough to send homebuilders stocks and exchange-traded funds, such as the SPDR S&amp;P Homebuilders (ETF) (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/xhb#NYSE">XHB</a>) and the iShares Dow Jones US Home Const. (ETF) (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/itb#NYSE">ITB</a>) soaring.
 Robust housing data also stoked impressive activity in timber ETFs such as the Claymore/Clear Global Timber Index (ETF) (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/cut#NYSE">CUT</a>) and the iShares S&amp;P Global Timbr &amp; Frstry Idx (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/wood#NASDAQ">WOOD</a>).
<bzrelatedlink>Related Link: <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/top-stories/16/08/8383300/home-sizes-are-now-getting-smaller-here-is-what-you-need-to-know">Home Sizes Are Now Getting Smaller: Here's What You Need To Know</a></bzrelatedlink>
<h3>Simplicity Is Not Always The Best Policy</h3>
However, investors should be careful before considering CUT and WOOD to be adequate proxies for ITB, XHB or individual homebuilders shares. For starters, the advice is simply too, well, simple. Buying timber ETFs because wood is used in home construction seems like a good idea &mdash; in theory.
In reality, the advice is only marginally better than buying consumer discretionary stocks because its holiday shopping season (the best month periods of performance for the benchmark consumer discretionary ETF are in the first and third quarters, not the fourth) or buying healthcare stocks and ETFs because a Democrat is leading a presidential poll. Just check out biotech ETFs to confirm <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/general/biotech/16/08/8380788/it-could-be-an-interesting-ride-for-healthcare-etfs">how bad that advice is</a>.
Second, ITB and XHB, the homebuilders, are essentially entirely allocated to U.S. stocks. The same cannot be said of timber ETFs. For example, WOOD allocates just 44.3 percent of its weight to U.S. stocks. Additionally, it is a stretch to assume an ETF that allocates almost 23 percent of its weight to Japanese and Finnish stocks is adequately levered to U.S. home sales trends.
<bzrelatedlink>Related Link: <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/16/08/8382194/homebuilders-in-focus-following-toll-earnings-ahead-of-housing-data">Homebuilders In Focus Following Toll Earnings, Ahead Of Housing Data</a></bzrelatedlink>
<h3>Why XHB, Peers?</h3>
XHB differs from rival homebuilders ETFs due to its robust exposure to the discretionary/retail side of the residential real estate industry. That includes an almost 8 percent weight to home improvement retailers, a group expected to deliver some of the most impressive earnings growth in the broader consumer discretionary sector.
Then there are correlations, which really tell the tale of the tape. XHB has a five-year correlation of 0.765 to both CUT and WOOD. Not weak, but not really that strong, either. The situation is worse with ITB, which is telling because ITB is more of a pure-play homebuilders fund than XHB. ITB&#39;s five-year correlations to CUT and WOOD are 0.697 and 0.706, respectively, <a href="http://www.sectorspdr.com/sectorspdr/tools/correlation-tracker/multiple-securities">according to State Street data</a>.
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Don't Use These ETFs To Play Housing Data

Guggenheim, the ninth-largest U.S. exchange-traded funds issuer, is changing the underlying indexes for the Claymore Beacon Spin-Off (ETF) (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/csd#NYSE">CSD</a>) and the Claymore/Clear Global Timber Index (ETF) (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/cut#NYSE">CUT</a>).
CSD will now be known as the Guggenheim S&amp;P Spin-Off ETF after the fund transitioned to the S&amp;P Spin-Off Index from the Beacon Spin-Off Index.
&ldquo;The S&amp;P Index is a rule-based index comprised of, as of February 29, 2016, approximately 58 securities of U.S. companies that have recently been spun-off from larger corporations and meet market capitalization requirements. Any eligible spin-offs occurring at least seven business days prior to the rebalancing date are included in the index at the monthly rebalancing,&rdquo; <a href="https://globenewswire.com/news-release/2016/05/20/841962/0/en/Guggenheim-Transitions-Spin-Off-and-Timber-ETFs-to-New-Indices.html">according to a statement</a> issued by Guggenheim.
<bzrelatedlink>Related Link: <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/16/05/8010868/a-new-etf-for-international-dividend-growth">A New ETF For International Dividend Growth</a></bzrelatedlink>
Previously, CSD, the larger and older of the two spin-off ETFs, &ldquo;include(d) companies that have been spun-off within the past 30 months (but not more recently than six months prior to the applicable rebalancing date),&rdquo; <a href="http://guggenheiminvestments.com/products/etf/csd">according to Guggenheim</a>.
Historically, healthcare spinoffs have been the best-performing spinoffs, while shed businesses from the energy patch have been the worst. 
The Timber ETF dropped the Beacon Global Timber Index in favor of the MSCI ACWI IMI Timber Select Capped Index.
&ldquo;The MSCI Index is a rules-based index comprised of, as of February 29, 2016, approximately 90 securities of companies in developed and emerging markets that own and/or manage forests and timberlands and produce wood-based products,&rdquo; according to Guggenheim.
CSD and CUT began tracking the benchmarks last week.

Guggenheim Swaps Indexes For Spinoff, Timber ETFs

ETF Outlook for the week of October 21, 2013.

	iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/tlt#NYSE">TLT</a>)

	The September jobs report, which was delayed due to the government shutdown, will be released Tuesday. The market expects the number to come in around 180k, slightly higher than the previous month.

	With the market pricing in a longer delay until the Fed begins to taper, the jobs number will either reiterate that thought or could put a damper on the bulls. As far as bonds, if the number is inline or worse than expected TLT should continue to rise because interest rates will likely stay low for the foreseeable future. And vice versa.

	United States Oil ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/uso#NYSE">USO</a>)

	Stocks are hitting highs, bonds are increasing in value, but oil has had trouble attracting buyers. The price of oil has fallen as the geopolitical tensions around the world have disappeared from the headlines and the government shutdown did not help.

	The question is whether the weakness is a buying opportunity or a sign to stay away from the commodity. From a technical perspective, USO has important support between $35 and $36. If the ETF can hold the support zone it could be a buying opportunity for investors.

	iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/itb#NYSE">ITB</a>)

	A big week for housing numbers with the existing home sales on Monday and new home sales on Thursday will have the housing stocks on the move. ITB is made up of about two-thirds home builders and the remainder housing-related stocks.

	A rise in mortgage rates and the government shutdown has not been kind to the sector. That being said the ETF has held support near $20.50 and if the numbers are strong it could lead to buyers picking up shares on the 5-month pullback.

	Rydex CurrencyShares Euro ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/fxe#NYSE">FXE</a>)

	The euro was up one percent last week and closed 0.1 percent below a high set in early February. A close this week above $135.49 would put the ETF at the best level since November 2011 and would signal an important breakout.

	The weakness in the U.S. dollar has had a direct affect on the relationship with the Euro and all foreign currencies. If the Fed continues to hold off on the taper it will be bearish for the greenback and will help push the euro higher.

	ETF of the Week – Guggenheim Timber ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/cut#NYSE">CUT</a>)

	A big week for the timber-related stocks pushed CUT up 3.25 percent and to the best level since December 2007. There could be several reasons as to why the ETF outperformed the overall market last week, but two in particular stand out. The fact the government shutdown cost the economy $240 billion puts pressure on the Fed to continue their accommodative policies.

	The further tapering gets pushed back, the higher probability of inflation in the near future. Timber stocks tend to do well in inflationary environments. The second reason has to do with the stocks hitting highs and investor confidence. This may lead to a pickup in the housing sector which would result in more demand for timber.

	Technically the stock is very bullish, however waiting for a pullback to $25.00 would be the best strategy versus chasing a new multi-year high.

	<img alt="" src="/files/images/2013/October/21/screen_shot_2013-10-21_at_8.09.42_am.png" />

Broad U.S. Equity ETFs

Previews

Pre-Market Outlook

iShares Trust Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund

ETF Outlook for the Week of October 21, 2013 (TLT, USO, ITB, CUT)

Big winners (up at least 5%): ProShares UltraShort Silver (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/zsl#NYSE">ZSL</a>), Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bear 3X Shares (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/dust#NYSE">DUST</a>), Direxion Daily Emerging Markets Bear 3X Shares (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/edz#NYSE">EDZ</a>) and the PowerShares DB Commodity Short ETN (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/ddp#NYSE">DDP</a>).

	Big losers (down at least 5%): Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/gdx#NYSE">GDX</a>), Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/gdxj#NYSE">GDXJ</a>), Market Vectors Indonesia ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/idx#NYSE">IDX</a>), iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/slv#NYSE">SLV</a>), Global X Silver Miners ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/sil#NYSE">SIL</a>) and the Direxion Daily Latin America Bull 3X Shares (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/lbj#NYSE">LBJ</a>).

	Unusual volume (at least 5X ADV): Market Vectors Gaming ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/bjk#NYSE">BJK</a>), Guggenheim Timber ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/cut#NYSE">CUT</a>), WisdomTree Global Natural Resources ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/gnat#NYSE">GNAT</a>), iShares MSCI Global Gold Miners (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/ring#NYSE">RING</a>) and the Global X Social Media Index ETF (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/socl#NASDAQ">SOCL</a>).

	Must reads of the day:

	Bloomberg: Get ready for <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-20/house-passes-spending-bill-seeking-to-stop-health-law.html">Congress to muck up the markets</a> again.

	The Economist: A smart look <a href="http://www.economist.com/news/economic-and-financial-indicators/21586611-world-gdp">look at global GDP growth</a>.

	Barron's: Gold miners <a href="http://blogs.barrons.com/focusonfunds/2013/09/20/the-gold-miner-etf-just-reversed-its-no-taper-surge/">wave good-bye to no tapering gains</a>.

	ETF Trends: Now this, unfortunately, <a href="http://www.etftrends.com/2013/09/a-splash-of-kardashian-for-em-bond-etfs/">Kardashian bonds</a>.

	Cheapest of <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/13/09/3930492/super-cheap-emerging-markets-etfs">the cheap emerging markets</a>.

	Check out these <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/13/09/3930676/nifty-new-global-dividend-etfs">new dividend ETFs</a>.

	Don't forget to follow me on Twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/ETFProfessor1">@ETFProfessor1</a>.

Barron's

New ETFs

Emerging Market ETFs

Currency ETFs

After-Hours Center

DUST

Direxion Daily Emerging Markets Bear 3x Shares

Market Vectors ETF Trust Market Vectors Gold Miners

GDXJ

GNAT

RING

SOCL

Benzinga's Mandatory ETF Reading for September 20, 2013

Here is the ETF Professor's ETF Watch List for Wednesday, May 22, 2013.

The SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/gld#NYSE">GLD</a>) looks terrible.

The First Trust ISE-Revere Natural Gas Index Fund (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/fcg#NYSE">FCG</a>) does not.

Keep an eye on the Guggenheim Timber ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/cut#NYSE">CUT</a>).

Emerging markets plays of the day: iShares MSCI All Peru Capped Index Fund (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/epu#NYSE">EPU</a>), iShares MSCI Mexico Investable Market Index Fund (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/eww#NYSE">EWW</a>) and the iShares MSCI Thailand Index Fund (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/thd#NYSE">THD</a>).

Forex play of the day: CurrencyShares British Pound Sterling Trust (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/fxb#NYSE">FXB</a>).

Bond play of the day: Market Vectors High-Yield Muni ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/hyd#NYSE">HYD</a>).

Short Ideas

First Trust ISE-Revere Natural Gas Index Fund

CurrencyShares British Pound Sterling Trust

Market Vectors High Yield Municipal Index ETF

iShares MSCI Thailand Investable Market Index Fund

ETFs to Watch May 22, 2013 (CUT, EWW, HYD)

With 2012 in the books, it is fair to say it was a mixed year for commodities exchange-traded products. Due to the European sovereign debt crisis, slowing growth and demand in the emerging world and persistent concerns about the U.S. recovery, commodities were an "on again, off again" asset class in 2012.

Broadly speaking, it was not a good year for commodities as the Thomson Reuters-Jefferies CRB index
closed lower for the second consecutive year. That is despite the fact that three of the <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/12/31/markets-commodities-idUSL1E8NV10320121231">index's 19 components posted double-digit gains and 13 closed the year higher</a>. Oil closed down on the year for the first time in four years while gold extended its winning streak to 12 consecutive years.

With no plan to avert the fiscal cliff in place, but ample signs that the Chinese economy is recovering, 2013 could be another mixed bag for commodities ETFs and ETNs. Here are the commodities plays to keep an eye on in the new year. In no particular order.

iPath DJ-UBS Cotton TR Sub-Index ETN (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/bal#NYSE">BAL</a>)
How the mighty have fallen. BAL was flirting with $120 in early 2011, but the ETN will head into early 2013 below $50. That caps a dour run that saw BAL plunge almost 13 percent in 2012 as cotton futures were hammered due to a supply glut. 

Arguably, the worst for cotton futures is already priced in. However, what may not be priced in is an expected 11 percent decline in production for the 2013 marketing season, <a href="http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052748703555704578157450703374428.html?mod=BOL_twm_mw">Barron's reported</a>. 

Farmers devoting less acreage to cotton should help BAL from the supply side, but increased demand is what the ETN really needs to move higher in 2013. The U.S. is a major cotton exporter, but cotton demand, as is the case with so many other commodities, is held hostage by China. China has recently stepped back into the cotton market in a significant way, but BAL could be supported by increased imports by other major cotton consumers such as Turkey.

iPath DJ-UBS Coffee TR Sub-Index ETN (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/jo#NYSE">JO</a>)
Like BAL, JO was doomed by a 2012 supply glut, but this one was far worse. JO plunged nearly 43 percent as arabica coffee futures tumbled 37 percent making coffee one of the worst-performing soft commodities in 2012. Improved supplies from Brazil, which grows about one-third of the world's coffee, and Vietnam have also weighed on prices.

Problematic is the fact that the International Coffee Organization expects record global coffee output in the 2012-13 crop year, which started in October, <a href="http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2012/12/31/soft-commodities-fall-hard-in-2012/">according to the Wall Street Journal</a>. 

Like cotton, coffee closed 2012 well off its 2011 average price. With Brazil forecasting a sizable coffee crop and soft commodities under significant pressure, JO's 2013 upside could be limited to sporadic technical bounces.

Guggenheim Timber ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/cut#NYSE">CUT</a>)
If the Guggenheim Timber ETF is to be viewed as a play on a recovering U.S. housing market, which the ETF has been deemed in the past, then this fund was a disappointment in 2012. CUT gained 23.6 percent, but that is peanuts compared to the 78.1 percent returned by the iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction Index Fund (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/itb#NYSE">ITB</a>).

There are several key factors to remember about CUT and they can give investors some feel for how the ETF will perform in the new year. First, timber futures have historically been as an inflation hedge, but CUT is an equity-based fund, not a futures play. Second, CUT's exposure to the U.S. housing market is somewhat limited because U.S. stocks account for less than 38 percent of this ETF's weight.

Finally, CUT is home to paper stocks such as Weyerhaeuser (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/wy#NYSE">WY</a>) and International Paper (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/ip#NYSE">IP</a>) and that diminishes the fund's housing exposure as well. All that said, CUT's mixed geographic and sub-sector lineup does make the fund a direct avenue for playing a global economic recovery. A move to $21 could represent a new breakout for this ETF.

SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/gld#NYSE">GLD</a>)
It would be almost impossible to build this list without GLD, the world's second-largest ETF by assets. Despite a 2.1 percent drop in December, gold futures rose about seven percent in 2012, extending the yellow metal's winning streak to 12 years. 

Gold has its detractors and that group would likely point to one or all of three reasons why 2013 could be the year the gold bubble finally bursts. Some would say that gold's failure to take out its 2011 highs around $1,900 an ounce is a bearish sign. Some might argue that the sheer length of the metal's annual streak is getting long in the tooth. Others might note that gold futures and ETFs closed 2012 well below the highs notched leading up to the Federal Reserve's third quantitative easing announcement in September.

Of course, global central banks are running the printing presses hot and heavy and that should be supportive of gold in 2013. Gold is coming off a good year in 2012, but traders expected more. With that in mind, either Chinese and Indian demand and/or safe-haven buying to start 2013 will have to work in gold's favor or the winning streak could prove vulnerable.

iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/slv#NYSE">SLV</a>)
Silver prices and SLV itself enjoyed solid 2012 performances, though silver bulls may be left with a bad taste in their mouths because SLV was trading around $34 in October only to close the year barely above $29. 

A frequent battle cry of silver bulls is that half of silver demand comes from industrial consumers and that should support the white metal in a global economic recovery. However, that factoid is often not enough to get silver past its reputation as one of the market's most manipulated commodities. That is to say what silver gives, it can take that away and more in breathtaking fashion.

The Fed's plans to pump $45 billion in Treasuries into the monetary system on a monthly basis starting in January can be seen as a boon to silver prices because of the potential inflationary pressures monetary easing builds. 

Additionally, the gold/silver ratio is currently in the area of 55:1, meaning it takes 55 ounces of silver to buy one ounce of gold. That is well above the historical norm of <a href="http://seekingalpha.com/article/1086651-silver-is-set-to-explode-in-2013">16:1, but some analysts are saying</a> two years of depressed silver prices relative to gold represents a buying opportunity. 

Some of the most bullish assessments of silver call for prices doubling, tripling or even quadrupling from current levels. Anything is possible, but do not bet on that level of price appreciation in 2013. A move by SLV into the $40s is not out of the realm of possibility, a move to the $60s much less so.

ETFS Physical Palladium Shares (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/pall#NYSE">PALL</a>)
Often treated as an afterthought relative to gold, silver and platinum, palladium is coming off a decent 2012 in which PALL added just over seven percent. Questions concerning palladium's 2013 are actually quite easy to answer.

First, it must be noted that the metal is an essential ingredient in the production of catalytic converters for automobiles produced in China and the U.S., the world's two largest auto markets. That means global auto demand must remain robust in order to brighten palladium's prospects.

Second, there is an international component to palladium production that makes the metal highly volatile. Russia, which is rarely forthright about its palladium output and stocks, is the world's largest producer of the metal. South Africa, which traders learned in 2012 is <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/12/11/3085999/palladium-etf-soars-on-speculation-of-dwindling-supplies">vulnerable to labor strife</a>, is the second-largest palladium producer. 

An ideal scenario for palladium bulls would be for Russian and South African headlines to be quiet in 2013 because production news out of those countries often leads to increased volatility on both sides of the palladium trade. In a perfect world, auto demand would lift the metal. Beyond international risks and auto demand, the big question surrounding palladium is how much of the <a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20121227-707813.html">expected 2013 shortfall is already priced in</a>?

iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/jjc#NYSE">JJC</a>)
Copper futures jumped 6.1 percent in 2012 and closed at their highest levels in two weeks during the New Years Eve trading session. Perhaps more than any other metal, Dr. Copper's price action is driven by an 800-pound gorilla known as China. The good news for copper bulls is that the recent spate of economic data out of the world's second-largest economy indicates a turnaround is in the works. 

China accounts for <a href="http://www.marketwire.com/press-release/copper-prices-rise-as-demand-from-china-strengthens-copper-demand-will-exceed-supply-nyse-fcx-1733329.htm">40 percent of global demand and demand there is expected to increase 5.5 percent in 2013</a>.

There is some risk to the long copper/JJC thesis. For starters, China has been accused of stockpiling copper, leading some observers to believe the country's copper consumption is not as high as copper bulls would like to believe. Even if conspiracy theories are found to be untrue, there is no debating that <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-12-17/jpmorgan-wins-approval-for-first-u-s-physical-copper-etf.html">2013 will be the first year in four</a> that copper output outpaces demand.

United States 12 Month Oil Fund (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/usl#NYSE">USL</a>)
The United States 12 Month Oil Fund differs from its more popular counterpart, the United States Oil Fund (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/uso#NYSE">USO</a>) in that USL tracks a basket of 12 months of West Texas Intermediate futures contracts while USO tracks the front month contract. What may sound like a slight difference to those not familiar with oil trading is actually quite significant. In 2012, USL lost 8.8 percent, but USO was off 12.4 percent.

That says USL is the better bet for the less active trader and for those looking to avoid the potential for increased volatility at the hands of contango. As for what USL, USO and related fare might have in store in 2013, the International Energy Agency <a href="http://omrpublic.iea.org/currentissues/full.pdf">recently increased its 2013 demand outlook</a> by 110,000 barrels per day to 90.5 million barrels per day.

Oil could be a vexing proposition for investors in 2013. On one hand, China's economy is recovering and demand there could slightly increase. However, if the U.S. goes over the fiscal cliff and into another recession, oil prices and ETFs like USL will be repudiated. It is simple math. Even if China's November consumption level of <a href="http://blog.gasbuddy.com/posts/Platts-China-s-Oil-Demand-Hits-Record-High-in-November/1715-524919-1530.aspx">10.5 million barrels per day remained constant through the year</a>, that is still a far cry from the roughly 19 million barrels per day the U.S. consumes. 

Remember this about oil futures ETFs: Oil futures themselves were lower by 7.1 percent in 2012, but USL, USO and the PowerShares DB Oil ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/dbo#NYSE">DBO</a>) all lost more than that.

For more on ETFs, click <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/etfs">here</a>.

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8 For '13: Commodities ETFs For 2013

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Andersen: 'Timberland and Farmland is a Huge Asset Class'

Financial Advisors

Market Vectors RVE Hard Assets Producers ETF

iShares Dow Jones US Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Index Fund

iShares Dow Jones US Oil Equipment & Services Index Fund

iShares S&P GSSI Natural Resources Sector Index Fund

iShares Trust S&P Global Energy Sector Index Fund

iShares Dow Jones US Energy Sector Index Fund

PowerShares ETF Trust Dynamic Energy Exploration & Production Port

PowerShares Dynamic Energy Sector Portfolio

Rydex ETF Trust Rydex S&P Equal Weight Energy ETF

SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Equipment & Services ETF

Top 10 Commodity Producers ETFs

Building Permits tracks the change in government issued new building permits from the prior month. Housing starts tracks the change in the number of new residential buildings that began construction during the month. Both signal to the health of the US housing market.
Larger-than-expected increases in housing starts and building permits suggest increased household income and in turn an economic expansion, and visa versa.
According to the <a href="http://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf">US Department of Housing and Urban Development</a>, privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in April were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 715,000, lower than the 730,000 estimate. This is 7.0 percent below the revised March rate of 769,000, but is 23.7 percent above the revised April 2011 estimate of 578,000.
Privately-owned housing starts in April were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 717,000, higher than the 685,000 estimate. This is 2.6 percent above the revised March estimate of 699,000 and is 29.9 percent above the revised April 2011 rate of 552,000.
Housing starts and building permits are seen as a leading indicator for the health of the US housing market. 
An increase in housing starts and building permits implies a healthy housing market, and because of the multiplier effect, housing has a significant impact on the rest of the economy. 
 
<div id="action-items">ACTION ITEMS: Bullish: Traders who believe housing starts and building permits are a leading indicator for the economy and US housing market, you might want to consider the following trades: </div>
<ul>
<li>Long building companies like PulteGroup (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/phm#NYSE">PHM</a>) because the more houses being constructed the more demand these building companies will have.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Long companies like Louisiana-Pacific (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/lpx#NYSE">LPX</a>), who manufacture and distribute products and materials for home construction.</li>
</ul>
Bearish: Traders who believe housing starts and building permits are not a leading indicator for the economy and US housing market, you may consider alternative positions: 
<ul>
<li>Short building companies like KB Home (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/kbh#NYSE">KBH</a>) because investors may be over valuing these numbers, causing shares to be more expensive.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Long commodities like the Global Timber ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/cut#NYSE">CUT</a>) if these housing figures are better than expected. The thesis being, even if this data is not a leading indicator, the data shows the need for building materials, and lumber is a key input material.</li>
</ul>
Neither Benzinga nor its staff recommend that you buy, sell, or hold any security. We do not offer investment advice, personalized or otherwise. Benzinga recommends that you conduct your own due diligence and consult a certified financial professional for personalized advice about your financial situation.

Bonds

Forex

Building Permits, Housing Starts Signal Mixed Housing Market

Building Permits tracks the change in government issued new building permits from the prior month. Housing starts tracks the change in the number of new residential buildings that began construction during the month. Both signal to the health of the US housing market.

Larger-than-expected increases in housing starts and building permits suggest increased household income and in turn an economic expansion, and visa versa.

According to the <a href="http://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf">US Department of Housing and Urban Development</a>, privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in March were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 747,000, higher than the 710,000 estimate. This is 4.5 percent above the revised February rate of 715,000 and is 30.1 percent above the March 2011 estimate of 574,000.

Privately-owned housing starts in March were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 654,000, lower than the 705,000 estimate. This is 5.8 percent below the revised February estimate of 694,000, but is 10.3 percent above the March 2011 rate of 593,000.

Housing starts and building permits are seen as a leading indicator for the health of the US housing market. 

An increase in housing starts and building permits implies a healthy housing market, and because of the multiplier effect, housing has a significant impact on the rest of the economy. 

 

<div id="action-items">ACTION ITEMS: Bullish: Traders who believe housing starts and building permits are a leading indicator for the economy and US housing market, you might want to consider the following trades: <ul><li>Long building companies like PulteGroup (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/phm#NYSE">PHM</a>) because the more houses being constructed the more demand these building companies will have.</li></ul><ul><li>Long companies like Louisiana-Pacific (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/lpx#NYSE">LPX</a>), who manufacture and distribute products and materials for home construction.</li></ul>Bearish: Traders who believe housing starts and building permits are not a leading indicator for the economy and US housing market, you may consider alternative positions: <ul><li>Short building companies like KB Home (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/kbh#NYSE">KBH</a>) because investors may be over valuing these numbers, causing shares to be more expensive.</li></ul><ul><li>Long commodities like the Global Timber ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/cut#NYSE">CUT</a>) if these housing figures are better than expected. The thesis being, even if this data is not a leading indicator, the data shows the need for building materials, and lumber is a key input material.</li></ul>Neither Benzinga nor its staff recommend that you buy, sell, or hold any security. We do not offer investment advice, personalized or otherwise. Benzinga recommends that you conduct your own due diligence and consult a certified financial professional for personalized advice about your financial situation.</div>

Building Permits, Housing Starts Signal Mixed Housing Market Sentiment

Building Permits tracks the change in government issued new building permits from the prior month. Housing starts tracks the change in the number of new residential buildings that began construction during the month. Both signal to the health of the US housing market.

Larger-than-expected increases in housing starts and building permits suggest increased household income and in turn an economic expansion, and visa versa.

According to the <a href="http://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf">US Department of Housing and Urban Development</a>, privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 717,000, higher than the 686,000 estimate. This is 5.1 percent above the revised January rate of 682,000 and is 34.3 percent above the February 2011 estimate of 534,000.

Privately-owned housing starts in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 698,000, lower than the 700,000 estimate. This is 1.1 percent below the revised January estimate of 706,000, but is 34.7 percent above the February 2011 rate of 518,000.

Housing starts and building permits are a leading indicator for the health of the US housing market. 

An increase in housing starts and building permits implies a healthy housing market, and because of the multiplier effect, housing has an significant impact on the rest of the economy. 

 

<div id="action-items">ACTION ITEMS: Bullish: Traders who believe housing starts and building permits are a leading indicator for the economy and US housing market, you might want to consider the following trades: <ul><li>Long building companies like PulteGroup (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/phm#NYSE">PHM</a>) because the more houses being constructed the more demand these building companies will have.</li></ul><ul><li>Long companies like Louisiana-Pacific (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/lpx#NYSE">LPX</a>), who manufacture and distribute products and materials for home construction.</li></ul>Bearish: Traders who believe housing starts and building permits are a leading indicator for the economy and US housing market, you may consider alternative positions: <ul><li>Short building companies like KB Home (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/kbh#NYSE">KBH</a>) because investors may be over valuing these numbers, causing shares to be more expensive.</li></ul><ul><li>Long commodities like the Global Timber ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/cut#NYSE">CUT</a>) if these housing figures are better than expected. The thesis being, even if this data is not a leading indicator, the data shows the need for building materials, and lumber is a key input material.</li></ul>Neither Benzinga nor its staff recommend that you buy, sell, or hold any security. We do not offer investment advice, personalized or otherwise. Benzinga recommends that you conduct your own due diligence and consult a certified financial professional for personalized advice about your financial situation.</div>

Building Permits Signal Recovering Housing Market

Before answering that, we should clarify there is no ETF devoted to the fictitious paper company made popular in the American version of "The Office," which airs on NBC. If a Dunder Mifflin ETF did exist, it would probably be the Guggenheim Timber ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/cut#NYSE">CUT</a>).

Avid fans of "The Office" might remember one of the episodes when Michael is preparing to start his own paper company and Jim tells him paper is a dying industry. There might be something to that. The ETF is off almost 14% in the past year and that number would be far worse if not for a curious 10% pop to start 2012.

S&amp;P Capital IQ rates CUT underweight and said in a recent note "now is not the time to add CUT to portfolios." 

To its credit, CUT has attracted $113.4 million in assets under management. That's an excellent total considering the ETF focus on a somewhat obscure niche and that its debut in late 2007, just as the housing market was weakening, could have meant this fund went to ETF graveyard. It obviously has not.

"From its initial price of $25, CUT fell to a low of $7.43 in early March of 2009. Subsequently, however, the ETF rose strongly over a two-year period until April 2011 when it nearly got back to its offering price by hitting $23.35. The ETF suffered for much of the balance of 2011 along with most materials stocks, and it was recently trading at $17.11. Due to the relatively limited number of companies and the narrow focus of this ETF, we think it has a higher risk profile than many other ETFs," S&amp;P Capital IQ said in its research note.

What CUT does do is hold 27 stocks with seven of the top10 holdings being paper or packing plays. CUT offers exposure to 10 countries with the U.S. and Japan accounting for 59% of that allocation. Brazil and South Africa give CUT some emerging markets exposure, but the rest of the country weights, including Finland, Sweden and Canada, are developed markets.

No, paper isn't the most exciting industry out there, no matter what Michael Scott says. And yes, S&amp;P's assessment could prove accurate. All that said, it pays to note perception is reality and what the perception of CUT, along with its rival the iShares S&amp;P Global Timber &amp; Forestry Index Fund (Nasdaq: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/wood#Nasdaq">WOOD</a>), is.

It is that these ETFs are plays on a recovering U.S. housing market. Indeed, there are <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/12/01/2277485/etf-showdown-the-battle-for-the-american-dream">ETFs for that very things</a>, but CUT might be worth a look along the same lines regardless of its lack of exposure to homebuilders.

CUT doesn't offer much in the way of yield, but active traders might want to give the ETF a whirl if it can move above the 200-day line around the $18.20 area. CUT has an expense ratio of 0.65%.

Analyst Color

Analyst Ratings

Whatever Happened to...The Dunder Mifflin ETF?

Greif (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/gef#NASDAQ">GEF</a>) is scheduled to report fiscal fourth-quarter 2011 results tomorrow, December 7, after the closing bell. The Delaware-based industrial packaging company recently lowered its full-year earnings outlook, despite a near record year, due to lower-than-expected sales in Western Europe. And this will be the first quarterly report since the new CEO took over in November.

The consensus forecast calls for Greif to report quarterly earnings of $0.61 per share, a drop from $1.51 in the same period of last year. And for the full year, analysts are looking for $3.69 per share, compared to $4.35 a year ago. Note that Greif earnings were less than expected in two of the past six quarters, including an 11.3% miss in the third quarter.

However, analysts also expect the company to report that fourth-quarter revenues increased 4.9% from a year ago to $1.0 billion. Full-year revenues are anticipated to be 19.9% higher year over year to $4.2 billion. And analysts so far expect revenues in the current quarter to be up 4.0%, with EPS down 22.1%.

The Company

Headquartered in Delaware, Ohio, this company manufactures and sells of industrial packaging products worldwide. Its business segments include Rigid Industrial Packaging and Services, Flexible Products and Services, Paper Packaging, as well as Land Management, which develops and harvests timberland. The company was founded in 1877 and its market cap is now $2.2 billion.

During the three months that ended in October, the company underwent the transition of the CEO mentioned above, with the new chief taking up the reins on November 1, the start of the new fiscal year. The company also selected a new chief sustainability officer, promoted from within.

Performance

Per-share earnings are expected to grow 14.6% over the next five years and the return of equity is 18.4%. Greif's dividend yield is 3.6%. The P/E ratio is lower than the industry average, and the operating margin is higher than the industry average. Analysts have a mean price target of $53.50 per share, which is more than 13% higher than the current share price.

Shares have traded mostly between $42 and $49 since mid-September; the 52-week low is $40.77. The share price is down more than 23% year to date, and it is below the 200-day and 50-day moving averages. Over the past six months, the stock has underperformed competitors such as Ball Corp. (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/bll#NYSE">BLL</a>) and Rock-Tenn (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/rkt#NYSE">RKT</a>), as well as the broader markets.

Action Items:

Bullish: Investors interested in exchange traded funds invested in Greif might want to consider the following trades:

<ul><li>First Trust Materials AlphaDEX (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/fxz#NYSE">FXZ</a>) is more than 29% higher than a recent 52-week low.</li>
<li>WisdomTree SmallCap Dividend (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/des#NYSE">DES</a>) is more than 20% higher than a recent 52-week low.</li>
<li>Guggenheim Timber (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/cut#NYSE">CUT</a>) is almost 14% higher than a recent 52-week low.</li>
</ul>

Bearish: Traders may want to consider these alternative positions:

<ul><li>Owens-Illinois (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/oi#NYSE">OI</a>) is more than 17% higher than three months ago.</li>
<li>MeadWestvaco (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/oi#NYSE">MWV</a>) is about 15% higher than three months ago.</li>
<li>Rock-Tenn (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/rkt#NYSE">RKT</a>) is about 11% higher than three months ago.</li>
</ul>

Neither Benzinga nor its staff recommend that you buy, sell, or hold any security. We do not offer investment advice, personalized or otherwise. Benzinga recommends that you conduct your own due diligence and consult a certified financial professional for personalized advice about your financial situation.

Earnings

WisdomTree Trust WisdomTree SmallCap Dividend

Greif Earnings Preview: Impact Expected From European Uncertainty

Finally, a rail road ETF. That might be the sentiment of some traders and investors when learning of the five new sector ETFs rapidly growing issuer Global X filed plans for with the SEC late last week. 

Global X, the New York-based ETF issuer that has made a name for itself with a wide array of unique emerging markets and commodities-based ETFs, is looking to continue its impressive expansion with plans for five new ETFs, including the Global X Railroads ETF, which would track the FTSE Global Railroads Index.

That would be the first ETF exclusively tracking railroad operators and would face little in the way of competition as investors looking to get exposure to companies such as CSX (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/csx#NYSE">CSX</a>) and Union Pacific (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/unp#NYSE">UNP</a>) usually turn to the the iShares Dow Jones Transportation Index Fund (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/iyt#NYSE">IYT</a>), which holds plenty of non-railroad names.

The firm has also filed plans for the Global X Toll Roads &amp; Ports ETF, which would track global companies that operate airports, seaports and toll roads. Since many of the companies that are involved in these businesses have steady, predictable cash flow, they often offer robust dividends, meaning the new Global X fund could be another option for income-starved investors.

Keeping with its tradition of introducing niche sector ETFs such as the Global X Fishing Industry ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/fisn#NYSE">FISN</a>), the firm has filed plans for the Global X Farm &amp; Timberland ETF and the Global X Cement ETF. 

The fifth fund Global X is planning the Global X Advanced Materials ETF, which, as ETFdb.com, notes could face competition from Global X's own Global X Lithium ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/lit#NYSE">LIT</a>) and the Market Vectors Rare Earths/Strategic Metals ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/remx#NYSE">REMX</a>).

The timberland ETF faces obvious competition from the Guggenheim Timber ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/cut#NYSE">CUT</a>) and the iShares S&amp;P Global Timber &amp; Forestry Index Fund (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/wood#NYSE">WOOD</a>).

Tickers and expense ratios for the newly proposed funds were not disclosed in the Global X filing. Including the aforementioned group of five, Global X has filed plans to introduce 15 new funds over the past several weeks. 

If all of those funds come to market, the firm would have 50 ETFs in its stable. Of its current lineup of 35 ETFs, Global X has introduced about half in 2011. The firm had $1.73 billion in assets under management as of July 21.

Dividends

FISN

iShares Dow Jones Transportation Average Index Fund

Market Vectors Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Etf

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