iShares Inc iShares MSCI Mexico ETF (ARCA: EWW)

에 대한 최신 뉴스 iShares Inc iShares MSCI Mexico ETF (ARCA:EWW)

iShares Inc iShares MSCI Mexico ETF

iShares MSCI Mexico Capped Investable Market Index Fund

Consumer Defensive

Financial Services

Industrials

Basic Materials

Communication Services

Real Estate

Consumer Cyclical

Other

Healthcare

The Fund seeks to track the investment results of the MSCI Mexico IMI 25/50 Index (the Underlying Index), which is a free float-adjusted market capitalization-weighted index that is designed to measure the performance of the large-, mid- and small-capitalization segments of the equity market in Mexico. The Underlying Index is rebalanced quarterly using an optimization process that aims to minimize the constituent weight differences between the Underlying Index and the MSCI Mexico Index (the Parent Index). The Underlying Index uses a capping methodology that limits the weight of any single group entity (constituents that MSCI determines have a control relationship) to a maximum of 25 Pecent of the Underlying Index weight, and the sum of all group entities with a weight above 5% to an aggregate of 50 Pecent of the Underlying Index weight. A group entity is a group of companies that operate as an affiliated corporate group but may separately issue listed securities.

Fomento Economico Mexicano Sab De Cv

iShares MSCI Mexico ETF

Government

Politics

Global

STLA

클라우디아 셰인바움 멕시코 대통령이 도널드 트럼프 대통령 당선인의 관세 위협을 강력히 질책했다. 무슨 일이 있었나: 블룸버그에 따르면, 셰인바움은 멕시코가 자체적인 보호주의 정책으로 미국의 관세에 대응할 수 있다고 제안했다.

트럼프가 미국을 멕시코와의 무역 전쟁으로 이끌까? 멕시코 대통령이 위협에 반격

Latin America

Emerging Market ETFs

Legal

ETFs

멕시코 금융 자산은 화요일 투자자들이 국내 정치 전개에 부정적으로 반응함에 따라 상당한 매도 압력을 받았다. 많은 사람들이 이를 사법 독립에 대한 위협이자 멕시코의 정의와 민주주의에 대한 잠재적인 타협으로 간주하는 사법 개혁 제안에 대한 우려가 커지고 있다.

사법 개혁에 대한 부정적 반응에 멕시코 주식 하락, 페소는 20개월 만에 최저 기록

President-elect Donald Trump has made tariffs one of the most talked about items ahead of his inauguration on Jan. 20. So far, he has not backed down from plans to place or increase tariffs on <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/tariffs">various trade partners</a>, including Canada, Mexico and China.
What Happened: On Tuesday, Trump took things a step further by naming a new agency tasked with overseeing tariffs.
"For far too long, we have relied on taxing our Great People using the Internal Revenue Service (IRS). Though soft and pathetically weak Trade agreements, the American Economy has delivered growth and prosperity to the World, while taxing ourselves," Trump <a href="https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/113827650534234057">said </a>in a post on Truth Social. "I am today announcing that I will create the EXTERNAL REVENUE SERVICE to collect our Tariffs, Duties and all Revenue that come from Foreign sources."
Trump intends for Jan. 20 — inauguration day — to be the birthdate for the so-called &#8220;External Revenue Service.&#8221; Normally, a new law would need to be passed first to create a new bureau or statutory body.
"We will begin charging those that make money off of us with Trade, and they will start paying, FINALLY, their fair share,&#8221; Trump added. 
It&#8217;s worth noting that the U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP), under the Department of Homeland Security, already oversees tariffs and revenue from foreign countries. Its key functions include collecting customs duties and tariffs. The CBP also enforces trade laws and ensures revenue accountability as one of the federal government's largest revenue collectors.
Meanwhile, Democratic lawmakers are already scrutinizing Trump&#8217;s External Revenue Service plan. "No amount of silly rebranding will hide the fact that Trump is planning a multi-trillion-dollar tax hike on American families and small businesses to pay for another round of tax handouts to the rich," Oregon Sen. Ron Wyden, the top Democrat on the Senate Finance Committee, <a href="https://www.finance.senate.gov/chairmans-news/wyden-statement-on-trumps-so-called-external-revenue-service">said</a> in a statement.
Did You Know?
<ul>
<li>Congress Is Making Huge Investments. <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/gov-trades/?utm_source=BZprocontent011425">Get Tips On What They Bought And Sold Ahead Of The 2024 Election With Our Easy-to-Use Tool</a></li>
</ul>
Why It's Important: Trump's plans to place tariffs on three of the country's largest trade partners have led to many question marks on how the other countries will respond and if items will get more expensive for American consumers as a trade off.
<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/24/12/42536470/costco-warns-that-tariffs-raise-prices-trump-team-says-trade-policies-will-make-life-affordable">Retail executives</a> Costco Wholesale (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/COST#NASDAQ">COST</a>) and Dollar Tree (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DLTR#NASDAQ">DLTR</a>) have already warned about tariffs on earnings calls. Tariffs <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/global/24/12/42402629/trump-to-change-dollar-stores-for-good-dollar-tree-exec-says-prepared-to-act">could mean higher prices</a> for consumers, less product assortment or a change to product sizes, they say.
Trump joked that Canada <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/global/24/12/42300450/trump-told-trudeau-canada-could-avoid-tariffs-by-becoming-51st-state-a-look-at-sectors-trade-war-could-impact">could become the</a> 51st state of America to avoid tariffs. While the country <a href="https://apnews.com/article/canada-trump-chretien-51st-state-ad9749047d0b627eed56be22f43ea7cd">isn't ready</a> to do that, a new report signals the country could be working on avoiding the tariffs.
Canadian ambassador Kirsten Hillman said Canada is prepared to buy more items from the U.S., as <a href="https://apnews.com/article/canada-ambassador-us-trump-hillman-9ced5ba12cd6526a2bbb4a810fa9af18">reported </a>by the Associated Press. The move would ensure that there is not a deficit for America in its trade with Canada.
Hillman warned that a plan to put tariffs on all Canadian products will lead to prices going up for Americans.
"And at a time when the cost of living is challenging, when food prices are high, it seems like the wrong direction to go in," Hillman said.
Top items exported from Canada to the U.S. include oil, gas and automotive parts. These industries could see higher-priced goods under Trump's tariff plan.
Large Canadian oil companies Suncor Energy (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SU#NYSE">SU</a>), Enbridge (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ENB#NYSE">ENB</a>), Canadian Natural Resources (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CNQ#NYSE">CNQ</a>) and TC Energy (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TRP#NYSE">TRP</a>) could face significant impacts from the tariffs and a potential blow to the sector.
Railway company Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CP#NYSE">CP</a>) and trucking companies Old Dominion Freight Line (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ODFL#NASDAQ">ODFL</a>) and Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/KNX#NYSE">KNX</a>) could also be impacted by the tariffs and the negative impact on trade between the United States and Canada.
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has recently shown a serious focus on migration and security, two of Trump's vocal demands to keep the U.S. from placing tariffs on the country, as reported by Reuters.
Sheinbaum has <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cannabis/25/01/42895985/trump-and-mexican-president-sheinbaum-spirited-clash-over-territorial-renaming-tariffs-and-cartels">publicly sparred with Trump</a>, but it remains to be seen if she will be able to avoid tariffs for Mexico.
Ford Motor Company (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/F#NYSE">F</a>), General Motors Company (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GM#NYSE">GM</a>) and Honda Motor Company (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/HMC#NYSE">HMC</a>) are among the automotive companies that <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/regulations/24/12/42688941/are-us-vehicles-under-30000-a-thing-of-the-past-trumps-mexico-tariff-plans-could-change-auto-market">have sub-$30,000 vehicles </a>that are partially or fully built in Mexico and Canada.
Higher tariffs on China could rattle the American economy as the country remains a major source of many exported goods. To get ahead of potential tariff increases, China saw its exports up 10.7% in the month of December, NPR <a href="https://www.npr.org/2025/01/13/nx-s1-5258024/china-exports-us-tariffs">reported</a>.
The growth was higher than estimates of 7% and could show that companies and China are taking proactive approaches to get ahead of higher-costing goods.
ETF Price Action: The iShares MSCI Canada ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EWC#NYSE">EWC</a>) is up 0.3% to $39.94 on Tuesday. The ETF is up 11% over the last year and down 4.5% over the last month.
The iShares MSCI Mexico ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EWW#NYSE">EWW</a>) is up 1.5% to $48.15 on Tuesday. The ETF is down 25.3% over the last year and down 6.4% over the last month.
The iShares MSCI China ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MCHI#NASDAQ">MCHI</a>) is up 2.3% to $44.89 on Tuesday. The ETF is up 19.2% over the last year and down 5.5% over the last month.
Read Next: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/global/24/11/42220682/trump-tariffs-on-mexico-could-affect-beer-why-your-modelo-corona-could-cost-more-next-year">Trump Tariffs On Mexico Could Affect Beer: Why Your Modelo, Corona Could Cost More Next Year</a></li>
</ul>
Image: Shutterstock

Specialty ETFs

COST

DLTR

MCHI

ODFL

Trump Wants Trade Partners To 'Start Paying,' Plans External Revenue Service To Oversee Tariffs

Macro Economic Events

News

Economics

General

Mexico President Says We Are Going To Collaborate With Trump Government, When Asked About Bilateral Relationship After Trump Comments

<a href="https://www.cnn.com/2025/01/08/economy/trump-national-economic-emergency-tariffs/index.html" title="https://www.cnn.com/2025/01/08/economy/trump-national-economic-emergency-tariffs/index.html">https://www.cnn.com/2025/01/08/economy/trump-national-economic-emergency-tariffs/index.html</a>

CNN Reported President Elect Trump Is Considering A National Economic Emergency Declaration To Allow For New Tariff Program

President-elect Donald Trump suggested Tuesday that Canada could become the 51st U.S. state as he criticized trade imbalances and subsidies, signaling a potential escalation in economic and political tensions <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/canada">with America's northern neighbor.</a>
Speaking during a press conference at Mar-a-Lago, Trump leveled sharp criticism at Canada, accusing the country of exploiting U.S. generosity on trade and defense.
"We're spending hundreds of billions a year to protect Canada," Trump said, while also alleging the U.S. loses over $200 billion annually in trade deficits with the nation.
"Why should we have a $200 billion deficit and subsidize their defense?" Trump asked. &#8220;They should be a state.&#8221;
In 2022, the U.S. trade deficit with Canada for goods and services was $53.5 billion, according to the U.S. Trade Representative&#8217;s office. 
Trump mentioned a conversation with <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/01/42823979/canadas-pm-justin-trudeau-steps-down-amid-internal-conflict-and-tension-over-trump-tariffs">outgoing Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau</a>, who, according to Trump, said that Canada would "dissolve" without the U.S.'s economic and security assistance.
 "Canada wouldn't be able to function if we didn't take that 20% of our car market," Trump said, referring to the high volume of Canadian-made cars exported to the U.S.
When asked whether he would consider military force to annex and acquire Canada, Trump replied, &#8220;Economic force.&#8221;
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Tariffs And Trade Deficits</h3>
Trump's remarks also hinted at the possibility of tariffs on Canadian goods if no resolution is reached.
"We don't need their cars, and we don't need their lumber," Trump said, arguing that U.S. industries could easily replace Canadian imports.
While Trump's mention of Canada becoming a U.S. state may have sounded speculative, his broader message will certainly grab the attention of the market. 
"It's a tremendous amount of money, and why should we give it to them as a separate country? That's okay to have if you're a state," Trump said
Trump also framed the idea of erasing the "artificially drawn line" between the two countries as a move that would benefit both sides economically and in terms of national security. 
The iShares MSCI Canada ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EWW#NYSE">EWW</a>) dropped 0.4% following Trump's comments, reflecting investor concerns about the potential impact of trade barriers. The Invesco CurrencyShares Canadian Dollar Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FXC#NYSE">FXC</a>) was 0.1% lower by 3 p.m. ET.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Mexico And The &#8216;Gulf Of America&#8217;</h3>
Mexico faces a similar threat from the incoming White House administration. Trump described the country as being "run by cartels" and criticized the ongoing flow of drugs and migrants across the southern border.
He raised the idea of "substantial tariffs" on Mexican imports as a way to offset the economic costs of illegal immigration and crime.
Energy policy took center stage as Trump vowed to overturn President Joe Biden's ban <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/01/42821300/biden-set-to-ban-future-offshore-oil-drilling-4-stocks-to-watch">on offshore drilling</a> on over 625 million acres of the ocean, calling it "a crime" against America's economic potential.
Trump promised to revoke the ban on his first day in office.
Trump also announced plans to rename the Gulf of Mexico to the "Gulf of America," a symbolic move underscoring his energy-first strategy. 
"We have oil and gas reserves that no one else has," he said, estimating that offshore drilling could add $50 trillion in value to the U.S. economy.
Mexican stocks performed positively on Tuesday, with the iShares MSCI Mexico ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EWW#NYSE">EWW</a>) up 1.4%, following a 1.6% surge a day earlier.
Read Next: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/01/42858230/5-stocks-to-sell-before-trumps-mexico-tariffs">5 Stocks to Sell Before Trump&#8217;s Mexico Tariffs</a></li>
</ul>
Photo via Shutterstock.

Equities

Emerging Markets

Markets

Trump Floats Canada As 51st US State, Says He's Ready To Use 'Economic Force' To Achieve It

Mexico's President Claudia Sheinbaum has announced a review of a controversial bill to ban <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/mining" rel="noreferrer noopener">open-pit mining</a>. Congress approved the bill in July after debating balancing environmental protection with economic priorities.
"Open-pit mining warrants a thorough review, as activities such as sand extraction for cement production and lithium mining—critical for national development—are conducted using this method. It is vital to assess the specifics of the constitutional reform's provisions," Sheinbaum <a target="_blank" href="https://www.gob.mx/presidencia/articulos/version-estenografica-conferencia-de-prensa-de-la-presidenta-claudia-sheinbaum-pardo-del-6-de-diciembre-de-2024?idiom=es" rel="noreferrer noopener">said</a>.
Mexico's mining industry is a pillar of its economy, accounting for around 8% of its industrial GDP. In 2022, mining exports totaled $17.6 billion, generating a trade surplus of $12.8 billion. It directly employs over 370,000 workers and supports millions more in related industries such as logistics and equipment manufacturing.
Large operating open-pit mines include Newmont's (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NEM#NYSE">NEM</a>) Peñasquito and Southern Copper's (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SCCO#NYSE">SCCO</a>) Buenavista. The ban would likely stop the San Nicolás copper-zinc project, a 50-50 partnership between Teck Resources (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TECK#NYSE">TECK</a>) and Agnico Eagle (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AEM#NYSE">AEM</a>).
CAMIMEX, Mexico's primary mining chamber, warned that an outright ban could reduce GDP by 1% and threaten nearly 200,000 jobs. Open-pit mining accounts for 60% of the country's mining production value and is critical for extracting key resources like gold, silver, copper and strategic minerals like lithium.
Under former President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO), Mexico's mining sector faced heavy restrictions. In 2023, AMLO nationalized lithium, declaring it a strategic resource for Mexico's energy independence and banning new concessions for private companies.
He also established a state-run lithium company and canceled multiple existing concessions, triggering international arbitration disputes.
While the bill passed Congress during his administration, Sheinbaum took over in October, becoming the first female president.
Unlike AMLO, she faces economic difficulties at the beginning of her six-year term. Without foreign capital, it will be hard to provide quality jobs, education, and healthcare.
Meanwhile, El Salvador's President Nayib Bukele is pushing to go in the opposite direction. In 2017, his predecessor implemented a total mining ban to protect the country's water resources.
Still, Bukele, a famous Bitcoin advocate, claims that the untapped mineral reserves could transform the economy.
"We potentially have the largest gold deposits per square kilometer in the world," he <a target="_blank" href="https://x.com/nayibbukele/status/1865129919870578791" rel="noreferrer noopener">stated</a>, arguing that responsible mining could generate $131 billion—equal to 380% of the country's GDP—from just 4% of identified reserves. Earlier this year, Bukele secured the second term, winning 84.65% of popular votes. With control over Congress, lifting the ban seems inevitable.
However, in contrast to Mexico, El Salvador is a small country, largely dependent on the Lempa River as a primary water source. Any large-scale operations, particularly in the gold-rich north of the country, could pollute this water flow and cause more problems for what it is worth.
Read Next:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/global/24/12/42475000/if-trump-starts-a-trade-war-canada-could-impose-export-taxes-on-oil-uranium-report" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">If Trump Starts A Trade War, Canada Could Impose Export Taxes On Oil, Uranium: Report</a></li>
</ul>
Photo via Shutterstock

Regulations

Commodities

Media

BATT

FLMX

LITP

MEXX

SCCO

TECK

Mexico And El Salvador Ponder Different Mining Stances

Reuters Reported Trump's Mexican Tariff Plan Could Hit U.S. Tequila Imports From Diageo, Becle Worth $3+B Combined In 2023

President-Elect Trump Said He Aims To Deport All Immigrants In The U.S. Illegally Over His Four-year Term; Pledges To End U.S. Birthright Citizenship On His First Day In Office; Signals Future Deal To Protect 'Dreamer' Immigrants - NBC's Meet The Press

President-Elect Trump Said He Can't Guarantee Americans Won't Pay More As A Result Of Tariffs -NBC's Meet The Press

Mexico's President Responds "Yes" When Asked Whether There Is A Plan For Possible U.S. Tariffs On Mexican Crude

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/2024-11-26_08h02_04.png" alt="" style="width:624px" /></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Buying Opportunity Ahead</h3>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-buying-opportunities-ahead-bitcoin-drop-bets-eww-mc-11262024">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of iShares MSCI Mexico ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EWW#NYSE">EWW</a>).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>President-elect Trump is threatening to impose steep tariffs on Mexico and Canada using an executive order on his first day in office.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>Mexico's president is responding by claiming that migrant caravans are no longer arriving at the U.S. border.&nbsp; She is also offering cooperation to stem the flow of drugs to the U.S.&nbsp;</li>
<li>If negotiations with Mexico do not go well, stocks in Mexico will be decimated.&nbsp; That will likely be an opportunity for long-term investors to back up the truck and buy stocks in Mexico.&nbsp; The reason is that there are simply not enough people in the U.S. to support economic growth and on-shoring of all of the manufacturing from China.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>The chart shows Mexico ETF EWW is oversold.&nbsp; However, EWW can become more oversold.&nbsp;</li>
<li>Mexico ETF EWW can easily fall to the top support zone shown on the chart.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, the back up the truck buying opportunity will tentatively occur if Mexico ETF EWW falls to the lower support zone shown on the chart.&nbsp; However, this is all data dependent.&nbsp; Investors should carefully follow the data points.&nbsp;</li>
<li>Investors need to look ahead and be prepared if the opportunity in Mexico arises.&nbsp; Mexico has been continuously covered in The Arora Report&#8217;s ZYX Emerging for 17 years.&nbsp; As full disclosure, if there is a back up the truck buying opportunity, a signal will be made in The Arora Report&#8217;s Real Time Feed of ZYX Emerging.&nbsp; In a buy signal, the support zone is only one of many factors.&nbsp; The algorithms used by The Arora Report are highly complex and combine the best elements of macro analysis, fundamental analysis, technical analysis, and quantitative analysis with an overlay of change.&nbsp; Identifying change early and being prepared to capture opportunity leads to big gains.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>Trump is also threatening Canada with steep tariffs.  If Canadian stocks are decimated, there will be an opportunity to buy Canada ETF iShares MSCI Canada ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EWC#NYSE">EWC</a>).  Again, investors need to be prepared ahead of time to capture the opportunity if it arises.  As full disclosure, a signal to buy Canadian stocks will be in The Arora Report&#8217;s ZYX Allocation.  </li>
<li>Yesterday evening, when the news broke of Trump's tariff plan, stock futures were first quickly sold.&nbsp; Then, the momo crowd stepped in and has been aggressively buying the dip.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>There are important developments in bitcoin.&nbsp; Please scroll down to the bitcoin section below.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h3>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>), Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>), Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>), NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>), and Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>) and&nbsp;Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are positive in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h3>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.  Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.  The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).  The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).  The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h3>
At a time when almost everyone is bullish on Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) and cryptos, money flows are at a record to short bitcoin.  As an example, money flows in ProShares UltraShort Bitcoin ETF (ARCA: SBIT) were at a record $18.8M yesterday.  Of course, money flows in short bets on bitcoin pale in comparison to money flows in long bets.  
Bitcoin whales took profits in the zone of $93,000 &#8211; $98,000, taking advantage of super excited retail investors.&nbsp; At a time when retail investors were converting their dollars into bitcoins, bitcoin whales were converting their bitcoins into dollars. 
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h3>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.&nbsp; The proprietary protection band from The Arora Report is very popular.&nbsp; The protection band puts all of the data, all of the indicators, all of the news, all of the crosscurrents, all of the models, and all of the analysis in an analytical framework that is easily actionable by investors.&nbsp;
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h3>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

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Back Up The Truck Buying Opportunities May Be Ahead, Record Bets On Bitcoin Drop

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum offered a sharp rebuke of President-elect Donald Trump&#8216;s <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/tariffs">tariff threats</a>.
What Happened: <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-26/mexico-hints-at-retaliation-after-trump-threatens-steep-tariffs?srnd=homepage-americas">According</a> to Bloomberg. Sheinbaum has suggested that Mexico could respond to U.S. tariffs with a protectionist policy of its own.
"One tariff will be followed by another in response, and so on until we put common companies at risk," Sheinbaum said at a press conference. "The main exporters from Mexico to the US are General Motors (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GM#NYSE">GM</a>), Stellantis (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/STLA#NYSE">STLA</a>), and Ford Motor Company (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/F#NYSE">F</a>), which arrived 80 years ago. Why put in place a tariff that puts them at risk?"
Why It Matters: Retaliatory action could put the two allied countries in a trade war. 
Trump <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/24/11/42194139/consumer-confidence-hits-2-year-high-as-recession-fears-fade-stock-market-optimism-soars-to-record-high">announced</a> that he would put a 25% tariff against Mexico and Canada on his first day in office in retaliation for illegal border crossings into the U.S. 
Trump also said it was in response to fentanyl trafficking. But the policy would hurt the Big Three automakers, which have roots in Detroit, Michigan. 
The U.S.-based auto manufacturers have slumped in recent quarters; all three traded well in the red on Tuesday after Trump&#8217;s announcement. Tariffs on automobiles would likely leave Americans paying more for cars.
Mexican stocks also performed poorly on Tuesday; the iShares MSCI Mexico ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EWW#NYSE">EWW</a>) traded down over 3% following Trump&#8217;s announcement.
Trump ally Bill Ackman seemed to not take the President-elect at his word. The billionaire hedge fund manager suggested the tariffs are <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs/currency-etfs/24/11/42190765/trumps-tariff-threats-slam-mexican-peso-canadian-dollar-only-the-beginning-of-a-sorely-needed-repricing-expert-warns">&#8220;a weapon&#8221;</a> and won&#8217;t be implemented. 
Trump did implement tariffs against China during his first term; the Tax Foundation later <a href="https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/tariffs/">estimated</a> that Americans incurred $80 billion in taxes from the tariffs.
Republican megadonor and Citadel CEO Ken Griffin has a <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/global/24/11/42056528/gop-megadonor-ken-griffin-warns-of-slippery-slope-in-trumps-tariff-plans-sees-us-returning-to-the-business-of-business">less favorable view</a> of Trump&#8217;s policy, calling tariffs a &#8220;slippery slope&#8221; that will hurt U.S. companies.
Most economists say tariffs are regressive taxes that disproportionately hurt poor Americans while stifling economic growth. Trump&#8217;s adoption of pro-tariff policies is a stark contrast to the free trade policies championed by Republican President Ronald Reagan during the 1980s.
Also Read:
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/24/11/42194139/consumer-confidence-hits-2-year-high-as-recession-fears-fade-stock-market-optimism-soars-to-record-high">Consumer Confidence Hits 2-Year High As Recession Fears Fade: Stock Market Optimism Soars To Record High</a></li>
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Image: Shutterstock

Will Trump Lead US Into Trade War With Mexico? President Claudia Sheinbaum Rebukes Threats

The U.S. stock market traded mixed on Tuesday morning, with major indices showing tight movements as investors awaited the release of the Federal Reserve's <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/interest-rates">November meeting minutes</a>. 
Reports are expected to provide fresh critical insights into the central bank's outlook for interest rates. Fed futures currently assign a 59% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in December. The remaining odds suggest the Fed may hold rates steady in the 4.5%-4.75% range, as per CME FedWatch.
Fed futures are currently assigning a 59% chance to a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut in December, while remaining odds point to the option of holding rates steady at 4.5%-4.75%, as per CME FedWatch. 
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">25% Tariffs On All Imports</h3>
In a relatively quiet trading session, both Mexican and Canadian assets saw a surge in volatility after President-elect Donald Trump pledged to <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs/currency-etfs/24/11/42190765/trumps-tariff-threats-slam-mexican-peso-canadian-dollar-only-the-beginning-of-a-sorely-needed-repricing-expert-warns">raise tariffs to 25% on all imports from Mexico and Canada</a>, citing efforts to combat drug trafficking and illegal immigration.
The Mexican peso dropped 2.5%, falling to 22.80 per U.S. dollar, a level of weakness not seen since August 2022. The iShares MSCI Mexico ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EWW#NYSE">EWW</a>) also declined sharply, tumbling 2.9%.
President Claudia Sheinbaum responded with a retaliatory warning, suggesting Mexico could impose its own tariffs, escalating the risk of economic damage for both nations.
The Canadian dollar fared slightly better, sliding 0.7% but still reaching its lowest level in more than four years.
U.S. Treasury yields ticked higher, reversing some of the sharp declines seen on Monday following President-elect Trump's announcement of Scott Bessent as his pick for Treasury Secretary. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) fell 0.5%, cooling off after Monday's 2.6% rally.
Gold traded flat, remaining near $2,010 per ounce. Oil prices fell 0.8% to $68.30 per barrel, as markets monitored developments around the ceasefire deal between Israel and Hezbollah as the Israeli Security Cabinet meets for the official approval.
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) rose slightly by 0.7%, after logging its worst single-day performance in more than four months on Monday. 
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Tuesday&#8217;s Performance In Major US Indices, ETFs</h3>
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Major Indices</td>
<td>Price</td>
<td>% (1-day)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>S&amp;P 500</td>
<td>6,013.26</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nasdaq 100</td>
<td>20,891.08</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Dow Jones</td>
<td>44,656.98</td>
<td>-0.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Russell 2000</td>
<td>2,426.91</td>
<td>-0.6%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Updated at 12:52 p.m. ET</figcaption></figure>
According to&nbsp;<a href="https://bzresearch.myclickfunnels.com/benzinga-pro-content-webinar-registration/?utm_source=BZprocontent112524&amp;t=be2bearmibe3na1">Benzinga Pro</a>&nbsp;data:
<ul>
<li>The&nbsp;SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) edged 0.4% higher to $596.83, eyeing the seventh straight session of gains.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DIA#NYSE">DIA</a>)&nbsp;inched 0.1% lower to $447.10.</li>
<li>The tech-heavy&nbsp;Invesco QQQ Trust Series&nbsp;(NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>) rose 0.5% up to $508.98.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;iShares Russell 2000 ETF&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IWM#NYSE">IWM</a>) fell 0.4% to $241.28.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;Utilities Sector Select Sector SPDR Fund&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLU#NYSE">XLU</a>) outperformed, rising 1%. The&nbsp;Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLB#NYSE">XLB</a>) lagged, down 0.9%.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Tuesday&#8217;s Stock Movers</h3>
<ul>
<li>Shares of automakers fell after President-elect Donald Trump threatened tariffs on goods <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/global/24/11/42196251/general-motors-stellantis-lead-automaker-stock-declines-as-trump-proposes-aggressive-tariffs-on-mexico-canada">imported from Canada and Mexico.</a> Ford Motor Co (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/F#NYSE">F</a>), General Motors Co (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GM#NYSE">GM</a>) and Stellantis N.V. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/STLA#NYSE">STLA</a>) were down 2.3%, 8.4% and 5.3%, respectively. For GM this may potentially mark the worst day since August 2021. </li>
<li>Eli Lilly &amp; Co. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/LLY#NYSE">LLY</a>) rose 5.4% while Amgen Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMGN#NASDAQ">AMGN</a>) tumbled over 8%, after the latter saw weight-loss drug results coming in below analyst expectations. </li>
<li>Zoom Video Communications Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ZM#NASDAQ">ZM</a>) fell over 7% in reaction to quarterly earnings. </li>
<li>Other stocks reacting to quarterly results included Semtech Corp. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SMTC#NASDAQ">SMTC</a>), up 18%, Analog Devices Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ADI#NASDAQ">ADI</a>), down 3%, Agilent Technologies Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/A#NYSE">A</a>), down 1.8%, Woodward Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/WWD#NASDAQ">WWD</a>), up 6%, Best Buy Co. Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BBY#NYSE">BBY</a>), down 7%, Dicks Sporting Goods Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DKS#NYSE">DKS</a>), down 0.2%, VinFast Auto Ltd. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VFS#NASDAQ">VFS</a>), up 1%. </li>
</ul>
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Stocks Mixed Ahead Of Fed Minutes, Mexican Peso Tumbles To Over 2-Year Lows On Tariff Fears: What's Driving Markets Tuesday?

'Trump's Plan To Impose 25% Tariffs On Canadian And Mexican Imports Does Not Exempt Crude Oil - Sources'

President-elect Donald Trump dropped an economic bombshell Monday, announcing plans to slap hefty tariffs on key U.S. trade partners once he returns to the White House <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/donald-trump">on Jan. 20. </a>
Trump pledged 25% tariffs on all Mexican and Canadian imports and an additional 10% levy on Chinese goods, which would remain in place until drugs, and in particular fentanyl, will stop entering the U.S.
&#8220;Thousands of people are pouring through Mexico and Canada, bringing crime and drugs at levels never seen before,&#8221; Trump wrote on Truth Social.
&#8220;On January 20th, as one of my many first executive orders, I will sign all necessary documents to charge Mexico and Canada a 25% tariff on ALL products coming into the United States. This tariff will remain in effect until such time as drugs, in particular Fentanyl, and all illegal aliens stop this Invasion of our country!&#8221;
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Markets React: Peso And Loonie Hit Hard</h3>
Currency markets were the immediate shock absorber of the news. The Canadian dollar, tracked by the Invesco CurrencyShares Canadian Dollar Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FXC#NYSE">FXC</a>), nosedived 0.8%, breaching the 1.41 level against the U.S. dollar — a low not seen since April 2020.
The Mexican peso didn't fare much better, sliding 0.9% to 20.50 against the greenback, while the Chinese yuan slumped 0.4% to a four-month low.
Robin Brooks, economist at the Brookings Institution, warned that this may only be the beginning. "The Mexican Peso is down 1.5% after tonight&#8217;s tariff news from the president-elect. To put this fall in perspective, the Mexican peso fell 10% in just a few days right after Trump's surprise win in 2016. So this fall is small and only the beginning of a sorely needed repricing."
The iShares MSCI Mexico ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EWW#NYSE">EWW</a>) fell 1.5% in premarket trading on Tuesday.
James Thorne, a market strategist at Wellington Altus, questioned the practicality of Trump's rhetoric. "Do you really think Mr. Trump will put a 25% tariff on Canadian Sour Crude Oil?" Thorne wrote. "Recall it's mixed with Sweet Shale oil and then refined. Constraint of US refining capacity. Think about that for 1 minute."
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">China In The Crosshairs: Fentanyl And Tariffs</h3>
Trump renewed his criticism of China, blaming the country for America's fentanyl epidemic.
&#8220;I have had many talks with China about the massive amounts of drugs, in particular Fentanyl, being sent into the United States—But to no avail," Trump said. 
He accused Chinese officials of failing to deliver on promises to crack down on drug dealers, stating, "Until such time as they stop, we will be charging China an additional 10% tariff, above any additional tariffs, on all of their many products coming into the United States of America."
The tariffs, according to Trump, would serve as a dual-purpose weapon: curbing illegal drug imports and bolstering his "America First" economic policy.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bill Ackman: Trump Is Using Tariffs As Weapon</h3>
Prominent investor Bill Ackman chimed in on X (formerly Twitter), suggesting that Trump's tariffs are less about trade and more about leverage. 
"To be clear, according to Trump, the 25% tariffs will not be implemented, or if implemented will be removed, once Mexico and Canada stop the flow of illegal immigrants and fentanyl into the U.S.," Ackman said. 
"In other words, Donald Trump is going to use tariffs as a weapon to achieve economic and political outcomes which are in the best interest of America, fulfilling his America First policy."
<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"> 
<div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">To be clear, according to Trump the 25% tariffs will not be implemented, or if implemented will be removed, once Mexico and Canada stop the flow of illegal immigrants and fentanyl into the U.S. In other words, <a href="https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@realDonaldTrump</a> is going to use tariffs as a weapon to achieve… <a href="https://t.co/61oQvCpW92">https://t.co/61oQvCpW92</a>
&mdash; Bill Ackman (@BillAckman) <a href="https://twitter.com/BillAckman/status/1861198845574815947?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 26, 2024</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></div>
</figure>
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Mexican Peso, Canadian Dollar Slide As Ackman Says Trump Will Use Tariffs 'As A Weapon'

<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-25/trump-vows-to-hit-china-mexico-canada-with-tariffs-over-border" title="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-25/trump-vows-to-hit-china-mexico-canada-with-tariffs-over-border">https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-25/trump-vows-to-hit-china-mexico-canada-with-tariffs-over-border</a>
&nbsp;

Bloomberg Reported President-Elect Trump Said Monday On His First Day In Office He Would Impose A 25% Tariff On All Products From Mexico, Canada, Plus Additional 10% Tariff On Goods From China

The Mexican Ministry of Finance (SHCP) has proposed raising mining royalties in the 2025 federal budget bill. The proposal suggests increasing two key taxes on mining activities, which is at a risk to the sector and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/mexico" rel="noreferrer noopener">the country's economy</a>.
What Happened? The SHCP plans to raise the special tax on mining profits from 7.5% to 8.5% and the extraordinary tax on revenues from the sale of gold, silver, and platinum from 0.5% to 1%. The Ministry justifies the hike by citing rising global metal prices and the nature of those assets.
"Considering that minerals and substances from the subsoil are non-renewable public domain assets, it is proposed to increase the special and extraordinary rights on mining," the SHCP stated in the bill <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bnamericas.com/en/news/mexican-govt-proposes-raising-taxes-on-mining-companies" rel="noreferrer noopener">per</a> bnamericas. The Ministry projects that the additional revenues will be allocated to government programs and projects, though specific details were not disclosed.
In 2021, an International Monetary Fund<a target="_blank" href="https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/WP/2021/English/wpiea2021245-print-pdf.ashx" rel="noreferrer noopener"> working paper</a> by Alpha Shah explored Mexico's mining tax regime, concluding it was less burdensome than in many comparable nations. Shah's findings pointed out that there is room to increase the overall tax burden on mining while still maintaining competitiveness. The paper suggested a balanced redesign to boost the government's share of resource rents while ensuring the sector remains an attractive investment destination.
Why It Matters? Mining is important to Mexico's economy, contributing 2.5% to GDP and supporting 400,000 direct jobs. The country is the world's leading silver producer and a major supplier of gold and copper. However, with increasing global competition, Mexico could struggle to attract new investments under a higher tax regime.
The country needs significant investment to bolster its mining sector, which has already seen declining fiscal contributions. These contributions fell 32% in 2023, further underlining the need for a balanced approach to taxation. Furthermore, bnamericas noted that industry experts warned the proposed increases could discourage nearly $7 billion in mining investments by 2025, particularly as companies face other challenges, such as reduced concession terms and stricter water-use permits.
While the proposed taxes aim to capture more value from the mining sector, they may also reduce Mexico's appeal compared to peers like Chile, Peru, and Canada. These countries offer competitive tax regimes and have become increasingly attractive destinations for mining investment.
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Mexico's Increased Mining Royalties Could Deter $7 Billion In Foreign Investments

Emerging market stocks have dropped to levels last seen in mid-September, with the downturn exacerbated by Donald Trump's victory and a Republican sweep<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/donald-trump"> of the U.S. Congress.</a>
The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EEM#NYSE">EEM</a>) has slumped 7% over the past month, with the iShares MSCI China ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MCHI#NYSE">MCHI</a>) and the iShares Mexico ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EWW#NYSE">EWW</a>) underperforming — down 10.1% and 7.8%, respectively.
Trump&#8217;s win and full Republican control of Washington, D.C. raise critical questions for emerging markets (EM). What does a more protectionist U.S. policy and potential fiscal loosening mean for emerging economies, currencies and credit conditions?
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Why Are Emerging Markets Falling?</h1>
Trump's election has sparked concerns over possible shifts in U.S. fiscal and trade policies that could have a ripple effect on global markets. 
&#8220;The prospects of looser fiscal policy and more trade protectionism have increased short- and long-term U.S. interest rates, putting upward pressure on borrowing costs in EMs,&#8221; according to Elijah Oliveros-Rosen, chief emerging markets economist at S&amp;P Global Ratings.
Higher U.S. interest rates tend to strengthen the dollar, making it more expensive for emerging markets to service dollar-denominated debt. This tighter financial environment has already started affecting emerging market currencies, which have weakened across the board against the dollar.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="503" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/14120359/image-159-1024x503.png" alt="" class="wp-image-648524" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/14120359/image-159-1024x503.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/14120359/image-159-300x147.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/14120359/image-159-768x377.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/14120359/image-159-1536x754.png 1536w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/14120359/image-159.png 1920w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">EM Currency Depreciation: A Major Concern</h1>
Following Trump's win, most EM currencies — especially in Central and Eastern Europe and Latin America — have depreciated significantly against the U.S. dollar.
Investors worry the Federal Reserve may delay rate cuts in response to Trump&#8217;s policies, which could include new tariffs or stricter immigration rules. A stronger dollar and potential trade barriers pose serious risks for EM economies reliant on exports and foreign investment.
The Mexican peso, in particular, has been hit hard by Trump's election, as uncertainty over trade and immigration policies toward Mexico has made investors skittish. 
Private fixed investment in Mexico, which has been strong over the last two years due to nearshoring, could lose momentum until there's more clarity on U.S. policy.
&#8220;During the Trump 2016-2020 administration (excluding the pandemic), private fixed investment in Mexico declined 4.5%,&#8221; S&amp;P Global wrote in a report. 
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Tightening Financial Conditions For EM</h1>
The rise in U.S. interest rates is tightening financial conditions for EMs, which rely heavily on affordable credit to finance growth. 
With borrowing costs rising, fiscal vulnerabilities in these markets could become more pronounced, potentially limiting governments' ability to stimulate their economies.
"Volatility in emerging market assets is expected to remain elevated for some time due to uncertainties surrounding U.S. policy details including trade, fiscal, and regulatory environment," said Oliveros-Rosen. 
Investors are likely to remain on edge until the new administration clarifies its approach, particularly toward trade.
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Impact On Credit Ratings, Market Activity</h1>
The tightening financial environment is already impacting EM credit ratings.
 While the number of issuers rated ‘CCC+' and below has decreased slightly, indicating some deleveraging, many EM companies are still struggling with high debt levels. Riskier credits have been able to refinance for the first time since November 2021, but this could come at the cost of reduced capital expenditures in 2025-2026.
Corporate bond spreads in EMs remain tight, supporting robust market activity for speculative-grade issuers. With two months left in 2024, all EM regions — except for Asia — have already surpassed their average bond issuance volumes from the last seven years. Both benchmark and corporate yields have edged up amid the uncertainty, reflecting a more cautious investor sentiment.
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Long-Term Outlook: Headwinds, Opportunities</h1>
Looking ahead, EMs face a mixed outlook. In the near term, "volatility in emerging market assets is expected to remain elevated for some time due to uncertainties surrounding U.S. policy details including, trade, fiscal, and regulatory environment,&#8221; S&amp;P Global wrote. 
Yet, demographics, technology, and the global energy transition could provide structural growth tailwinds over the next decade, potentially offsetting some of the risks posed by a protectionist U.S. stance. 
Supply-chain shifts and nearshoring trends, particularly in regions like Latin America, may also help some EMs attract investment.
As Oliveros-Rosen stated, "The specific policies announced by the next U.S. administration could either further amplify or reverse the recent tightening in financial conditions, with implications for EM growth and credit conditions."
In other words, the ball is in Washington's court. Whether EMs face a full-blown crisis or simply a period of adjustment will depend largely on Trump's policy choices in 2025.
Read Next:
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