iShares Inc iShares MSCI Mexico ETF (ARCA: EWW)

에 대한 최신 뉴스 iShares Inc iShares MSCI Mexico ETF (ARCA:EWW)

iShares Inc iShares MSCI Mexico ETF

iShares MSCI Mexico Capped Investable Market Index Fund

Consumer Defensive

Financial Services

Industrials

Basic Materials

Communication Services

Real Estate

Consumer Cyclical

Other

Healthcare

The Fund seeks to track the investment results of the MSCI Mexico IMI 25/50 Index (the Underlying Index), which is a free float-adjusted market capitalization-weighted index that is designed to measure the performance of the large-, mid- and small-capitalization segments of the equity market in Mexico. The Underlying Index is rebalanced quarterly using an optimization process that aims to minimize the constituent weight differences between the Underlying Index and the MSCI Mexico Index (the Parent Index). The Underlying Index uses a capping methodology that limits the weight of any single group entity (constituents that MSCI determines have a control relationship) to a maximum of 25 Pecent of the Underlying Index weight, and the sum of all group entities with a weight above 5% to an aggregate of 50 Pecent of the Underlying Index weight. A group entity is a group of companies that operate as an affiliated corporate group but may separately issue listed securities.

Fomento Economico Mexicano Sab De Cv

iShares MSCI Mexico ETF

Government

Latin America

Emerging Market ETFs

Legal

Global

ETFs

멕시코 금융 자산은 화요일 투자자들이 국내 정치 전개에 부정적으로 반응함에 따라 상당한 매도 압력을 받았다. 많은 사람들이 이를 사법 독립에 대한 위협이자 멕시코의 정의와 민주주의에 대한 잠재적인 타협으로 간주하는 사법 개혁 제안에 대한 우려가 커지고 있다.

사법 개혁에 대한 부정적 반응에 멕시코 주식 하락, 페소는 20개월 만에 최저 기록

Emerging market stocks have dropped to levels last seen in mid-September, with the downturn exacerbated by Donald Trump's victory and a Republican sweep<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/donald-trump"> of the U.S. Congress.</a>
The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EEM#NYSE">EEM</a>) has slumped 7% over the past month, with the iShares MSCI China ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MCHI#NYSE">MCHI</a>) and the iShares Mexico ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EWW#NYSE">EWW</a>) underperforming — down 10.1% and 7.8%, respectively.
Trump&#8217;s win and full Republican control of Washington, D.C. raise critical questions for emerging markets (EM). What does a more protectionist U.S. policy and potential fiscal loosening mean for emerging economies, currencies and credit conditions?
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Why Are Emerging Markets Falling?</h1>
Trump's election has sparked concerns over possible shifts in U.S. fiscal and trade policies that could have a ripple effect on global markets. 
&#8220;The prospects of looser fiscal policy and more trade protectionism have increased short- and long-term U.S. interest rates, putting upward pressure on borrowing costs in EMs,&#8221; according to Elijah Oliveros-Rosen, chief emerging markets economist at S&amp;P Global Ratings.
Higher U.S. interest rates tend to strengthen the dollar, making it more expensive for emerging markets to service dollar-denominated debt. This tighter financial environment has already started affecting emerging market currencies, which have weakened across the board against the dollar.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="503" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/14120359/image-159-1024x503.png" alt="" class="wp-image-648524" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/14120359/image-159-1024x503.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/14120359/image-159-300x147.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/14120359/image-159-768x377.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/14120359/image-159-1536x754.png 1536w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/14120359/image-159.png 1920w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">EM Currency Depreciation: A Major Concern</h1>
Following Trump's win, most EM currencies — especially in Central and Eastern Europe and Latin America — have depreciated significantly against the U.S. dollar.
Investors worry the Federal Reserve may delay rate cuts in response to Trump&#8217;s policies, which could include new tariffs or stricter immigration rules. A stronger dollar and potential trade barriers pose serious risks for EM economies reliant on exports and foreign investment.
The Mexican peso, in particular, has been hit hard by Trump's election, as uncertainty over trade and immigration policies toward Mexico has made investors skittish. 
Private fixed investment in Mexico, which has been strong over the last two years due to nearshoring, could lose momentum until there's more clarity on U.S. policy.
&#8220;During the Trump 2016-2020 administration (excluding the pandemic), private fixed investment in Mexico declined 4.5%,&#8221; S&amp;P Global wrote in a report. 
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Tightening Financial Conditions For EM</h1>
The rise in U.S. interest rates is tightening financial conditions for EMs, which rely heavily on affordable credit to finance growth. 
With borrowing costs rising, fiscal vulnerabilities in these markets could become more pronounced, potentially limiting governments' ability to stimulate their economies.
"Volatility in emerging market assets is expected to remain elevated for some time due to uncertainties surrounding U.S. policy details including trade, fiscal, and regulatory environment," said Oliveros-Rosen. 
Investors are likely to remain on edge until the new administration clarifies its approach, particularly toward trade.
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Impact On Credit Ratings, Market Activity</h1>
The tightening financial environment is already impacting EM credit ratings.
 While the number of issuers rated ‘CCC+' and below has decreased slightly, indicating some deleveraging, many EM companies are still struggling with high debt levels. Riskier credits have been able to refinance for the first time since November 2021, but this could come at the cost of reduced capital expenditures in 2025-2026.
Corporate bond spreads in EMs remain tight, supporting robust market activity for speculative-grade issuers. With two months left in 2024, all EM regions — except for Asia — have already surpassed their average bond issuance volumes from the last seven years. Both benchmark and corporate yields have edged up amid the uncertainty, reflecting a more cautious investor sentiment.
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Long-Term Outlook: Headwinds, Opportunities</h1>
Looking ahead, EMs face a mixed outlook. In the near term, "volatility in emerging market assets is expected to remain elevated for some time due to uncertainties surrounding U.S. policy details including, trade, fiscal, and regulatory environment,&#8221; S&amp;P Global wrote. 
Yet, demographics, technology, and the global energy transition could provide structural growth tailwinds over the next decade, potentially offsetting some of the risks posed by a protectionist U.S. stance. 
Supply-chain shifts and nearshoring trends, particularly in regions like Latin America, may also help some EMs attract investment.
As Oliveros-Rosen stated, "The specific policies announced by the next U.S. administration could either further amplify or reverse the recent tightening in financial conditions, with implications for EM growth and credit conditions."
In other words, the ball is in Washington's court. Whether EMs face a full-blown crisis or simply a period of adjustment will depend largely on Trump's policy choices in 2025.
Read Next:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/11/41955977/trump-ignites-investor-optimism-for-growth-small-caps-us-dollar-bank-of-america-survey">Trump Ignites Investor Optimism For Growth, Small Caps, US Dollar: Bank Of America Survey</a></li>
</ul>
Photo: Shutterstock

Analyst Color

Equities

Macro Economic Events

Emerging Markets

Politics

Econ #s

Economics

Markets

MCHI

Trump's Red Wave Pushes Emerging Market Stocks To 2-Month Lows: Volatility 'Expected To Remain Elevated'

News

Contracts

GSAT

Globalstar Wins 10-Year Terrestrial Authority From Mexico's Instituto Federal de Telecomunicaciones; Terms Not Disclosed

<a href="https://www.wsj.com/business/autos/stellantis-planning-to-make-ram-pickups-in-mexico-5f8b84ef" title="https://www.wsj.com/business/autos/stellantis-planning-to-make-ram-pickups-in-mexico-5f8b84ef">https://www.wsj.com/business/autos/stellantis-planning-to-make-ram-pickups-in-mexico-5f8b84ef</a>

STLA

The Wall Street Journal Reported Tuesday, Stellantis Planning To Build The Ram 1500 Truck In Saltillo, Mexico

- Reuters Citing Excerpt From Upcoming Detroit Speech

General

Trump To Say If Elected He Will Formally Notify Mexico, Canada Of His Plan To Invoke 6-Year Renegotiation Provision Of USMCA To Address Concerns About Chinese Auto Production

<a href="https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/mexico-wants-to-curb-chinese-imports-with-help-from-u-s-companies-bf169302?mod=latest_headlines">https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/mexico-wants-to-curb-chinese-imports-with-help-from-u-s-companies-bf169302?mod=latest_headlines</a>
&nbsp;
MEXICO CITY—Mexico wants to reduce its dependence on imports from China and is asking some of the world's biggest manufacturers and tech firms operating in the country to identify Chinese products and parts that could be made locally.
The administration of leftist President Claudia Sheinbaum, <a href="https://www.wsj.com/world/americas/mexicos-first-female-president-has-a-big-problem-her-mentors-legacy-8f0a8517?mod=article_inline">who took office</a> last week, wants U.S. carmakers and semiconductor manufacturers as well as global giants in the aerospace and electronics sectors to substitute some goods and components manufactured in China, Malaysia, Vietnam and Taiwan, said Deputy Trade Minister Luis Rosendo Gutiérrez.

'Mexico Wants To Curb Chinese Imports With Help From U.S. Companies; Government Seeks To Strengthen Domestic Supply Chains Amid Rising Trade Tension Between Washington And Beijing' - WSJ

MSFT

Microsoft To Invest $1.3B Over Next Three Years To Empower Mexico With Cloud And AI

<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4jDyPMVkuh4">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4jDyPMVkuh4</a>
&nbsp;

TSLA

Former President Donald Trump Says We Will Put A 100% Tariff On Every Single Car Coming Across The Mexican Border

Vulcan Materials Says Expropriation Is Yet Another Escalation And New Violation Of Mexico's Commitments Under Regional Trade Agreements

U.S. Senators Seek To Deter Mexico From Taking Over Vulcan Port

On September 5, 2024, U. S. Steel, along with the United Steelworkers union ("USW") and Wheeling-Nippon, has filed antidumping and countervailing duty petitions with the United States Department of Commerce ("DOC") and the United States International Trade Commission ("ITC"), on imports of corrosion-resistant steel ("CORE") from Australia, Brazil, Canada1, Mexico, Netherlands, South Africa, Taiwan, Turkey, United Arab Emirates, and Vietnam.
Duane D. Holloway, Senior Vice President, General Counsel and Chief Ethics &amp; Compliance Officer of U. S. Steel, commented, "As we have for decades, U. S. Steel continues to lead the domestic industry in the fight against unfair trade on behalf of our workers, families, communities, and customers we serve. These new trade cases—the largest filed by U. S. Steel in nearly a decade—will address low-priced and subsidized CORE imports that continue to pour into the U.S. market. These cases aim to restore a level playing field and support our investments in Big River Steel's new dual coating line and second mini-mill in Arkansas, as well as U. S. Steel's CORE facilities across the country."

iShares MSCI Turkey Investable Market Index Fund

U.S. Steel, USW And Wheeling-Nippon Files Antidumping And Countervailing Duty Petitions With The U.S. DOC And The U.S. ITC, On Imports Of Corrosion-Resistant Steel From Australia, Brazil, Canada, Mexico, Netherlands, South Africa, Taiwan, Turkey, United Arab Emirates, And Vietnam

BYDDF

BYD Americas Head Says Firm Has Not Postponed Any Decision About Mexico Plant

<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-03/china-s-byd-said-to-pause-mexico-plant-until-after-us-election?srnd=phx-technology">https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-03/china-s-byd-said-to-pause-mexico-plant-until-after-us-election?srnd=phx-technology</a>
&nbsp;
China&#39;s top electric-vehicle maker <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/1211:HK">BYD Co.</a> won&#39;t announce a major plant investment in Mexico until at least after the US election, according to people familiar with the matter, as shifting American policy forces global businesses into wait-and-see mode.
BYD was scouting three locations for a car production facility in Mexico but has stopped actively looking for now, several of the people said, asking not to be identified discussing information that&#39;s private.

XPEV

'China's BYD To Pause Mexico Plant Until After U.S. Election' - Bloomberg News

The Mexican peso experienced a positive trading session on Wednesday, advancing 0.5% against the U.S. dollar by 3:00 p.m. ET as President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) clarified in a press conference that Mexico&#8217;s diplomatic relationships with the United States and Canada remain intact, while emphasizing that the pause in relations applies only to the embassies of <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/24/08/40587519/mexican-stocks-plummet-peso-drops-to-20-month-lows-as-investors-run-from-judicial-reform">both countries within Mexico.</a>
As reported by local newspaper El Economista, AMLO stated, &#8220;The pause in relations is specifically with the Canadian Ambassador (Graeme C. Clark) and the U.S. Ambassador (Ken Salazar) because they should not comment on matters that only concern Mexicans. It is a matter of respect for our country.&#8221;
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Investor Concerns Over Judicial Reform Persist</h3>
The peso&#8217;s 0.5% gain on Wednesday followed a sharp 1.9% selloff on Tuesday, the steepest one-day decline in two months. The selloff was triggered by negative market reactions to the announcement that Mexico had temporarily halted diplomatic relations with the U.S. and Canada.
Despite the peso&#8217;s recovery, concerns still linger among investors regarding AMLO&#8217;s proposed judicial reform, which aims to subject judges, magistrates, and ministers to popular elections. Critics argue that this reform could lead to the politicization of the judiciary and increase the risk of corruption.
AMLO responded to these concerns by dismissing U.S. diplomats&#8217; warnings that the direct election of judges could threaten Mexico&#8217;s democracy and economic integration with the U.S. and Canada. &#8220;Democracy is about the participation of the people, that the people choose, not the elites of economic or political power,&#8221; the Mexican president said Wednesday
AMLO plans to present the judicial reform to Congress for approval in September, the final month of his term. The reform &#8220;creates an uncertain investment outlook in Mexico,&#8221; as indicated by the Mexican Chamber of the Construction Industry (CMIC) on Wednesday. 
The ruling MORENA coalition, which will be led by incoming President Claudia Sheinbaum, currently holds a two-thirds majority in Congress, allowing them to pursue constitutional reforms.
Investor sentiment towards Mexican assets remains in a precarious state. The peso has already lost 16% of its value against the dollar since late May, primarily due to rising domestic political risks, while Mexico&#8217;s main stock market index has shed nearly 10% of its value during the same period. 
U.S.-listed Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) focused on Mexican equities showed mixed performance on Wednesday. The iShares MSCI Mexico ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EWW#NYSE">EWW</a>) gained 0.1%, while the Franklin FTSE Mexico ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FLMX#NYSE">FLMX</a>) slipped 0.4%.
Last month, Fitch Ratings affirmed Mexico&#8217;s sovereign credit rating at &#8216;BBB-&#8216; with a stable outlook. While Fitch noted that the judicial reform could negatively impact Mexico&#8217;s institutional profile, the agency also mentioned that it is too early to assess the full severity of the potential changes before they are approved and implemented.
Read Next:
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/24/08/40607469/us-stocks-chipmakers-fall-ahead-of-nvidia-earnings-berkshire-hits-1-trillion-super-micro-c">US Stocks, Chipmakers Fall Ahead Of Nvidia Earnings, Berkshire Hits $1 Trillion, Super Micro Computer Sinks: What&#8217;s Driving Markets Wednesday?</a></li>
</ul>
Photo: Octavio Hoyos/Shutterstock.com<a href="https://api.whatsapp.com/send?text=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.eleconomista.com.mx%2Fpolitica%2FAMLO-aclara-que-las-relaciones-con-EU-y-Canada-continuan-solo-hay-pausa-con-los-embajadores-20240828-0036.html" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener"></a><a href="https://twitter.com/intent/tweet?text=AMLO%20aclara%20que%20las%20relaciones%20con%20EU%20y%20Canad%C3%A1%20contin%C3%BAan%3B%20s%C3%B3lo%20hay%20pausa%20con%20los%20embajadores&amp;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.eleconomista.com.mx%2Fpolitica%2FAMLO-aclara-que-las-relaciones-con-EU-y-Canada-continuan-solo-hay-pausa-con-los-embajadores-20240828-0036.html" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener"></a><a href="https://www.facebook.com/sharer/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.eleconomista.com.mx%2Fpolitica%2FAMLO-aclara-que-las-relaciones-con-EU-y-Canada-continuan-solo-hay-pausa-con-los-embajadores-20240828-0036.html" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener"></a><a href="https://www.linkedin.com/sharing/share-offsite/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.eleconomista.com.mx%2Fpolitica%2FAMLO-aclara-que-las-relaciones-con-EU-y-Canada-continuan-solo-hay-pausa-con-los-embajadores-20240828-0036.html" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener"></a>

Forex

FLMX

Peso Selloff Pauses As Mexican President Addresses US, Canada Relations, Targets Ambassadors Over 'Respect For Our Country'

Mexican financial assets have come under significant selling pressure on Tuesday as investors react negatively <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/mexico">to domestic political developments. </a>
Concerns are mounting over a judicial reform proposal, which many see as a threat to judicial independence and a potential compromise to justice and democracy in Mexico.
The iShares MSCI Mexico ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EWW#NYSE">EWW</a>) fell 2.8% by 3:15 p.m. ET, following a 2.3% decline the previous day. The Mexican peso also took a hit, plunging to 19.73 per U.S. dollar, marking its lowest level since late December 2022.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">The Controversial Judicial Reform</h3>
In February 2024, Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) introduced a highly controversial judicial reform proposal aimed at overhauling the nation's judicial system. The proposed changes include the introduction of popular elections for judges, including those on the Supreme Court, and a significant restructuring of the judicial system's oversight.
The reform has ignited intense political debate and is expected to face a critical vote in Congress by September 2024. This vote comes as AMLO enters the final months of his presidency. 
President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum, who holds a &#8220;supermajority&#8221; in Congress, has voiced strong support for the reform, signaling it will be a priority for her administration.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Diplomatic Tensions Rise Amid Concerns Over Judicial Independence</h3>
Tensions between Mexico and the United States have escalated over the judicial reform. 
AMLO stated on Tuesday morning that relations with the U.S. Embassy in Mexico are &#8220;on pause&#8221; following critical remarks from U.S. Ambassador Ken Salazar regarding the proposed changes. Salazar has expressed serious concerns, noting that the reforms could undermine the rule of law in Mexico.
&#8220;Based on my lifelong experience supporting the rule of law, I believe popular direct election of judges is a major risk to the functioning of Mexico's democracy. Any judicial reform should have the right kinds of safeguards that will ensure the judicial branch will be strengthened and not subject to the corruption of politics,&#8221; Salazar said in a statement.
One of the most contentious aspects of the reform is the proposal to elect judges by popular vote, which critics argue could compromise the integrity of the merit-based selection process.
As stated by local Mexican newspaper El Economista, the International Association of Judges (IAJ) has also voiced deep concern, stating that the reforms could jeopardize judicial independence and contravene widely accepted international principles.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Rating Agencies, Investment Banks Reject Reform</h3>
The proposed reforms have also raised alarm within the financial sector. AMLO has dismissed warnings from international rating agencies and investment banks regarding the potential economic impact of the judicial reform.
&#8220;Hindering those counterweights weakens certainty, which is valuable for companies when evaluating their investments in the country,&#8221; said David Crisóstomo, director of research and analysis at S&amp;P Global Commodity Insights.
&#8220;The proposed judicial reforms in Mexico could negatively affect the investment appetite and business environment of non-financial corporates if their implementation impedes the autonomy and quality of the judicial system,&#8221; Fitch Ratings said last month.
Fitch Ratings raised concerns that Mexico&#8217;s proposed judicial reform could dampen nearshoring opportunities to the United States, particularly in sectors tied to manufacturing, export-oriented industries, and industrial real estate. The rating agency warned that, under this scenario, Mexican companies might experience a more challenging operating environment characterized by slower economic growth. 
Last week, Morgan Stanley downgraded its recommendation on Mexico to Underweight, implying that the country's stocks are expected to underperform relative to the region. This downgrade came in response to the proposed judicial changes, reflecting broader concerns about the country's economic stability.
Read now: 
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/24/08/40581306/can-regional-banks-outperform-large-institutions-as-fed-rate-cuts-loom-small-banks-are-plenty-ch">Can Regional Banks Outperform Large Institutions As Fed Rate Cuts Loom? &#8216;Small Banks Are Plenty Cheap,&#8217; But&#8230;</a></li>
</ul>
Photo: Richie Chan/Shutterstock.com

Mexican Stocks Plummet, Peso Drops To 20-Month Lows As Investors Run From Judicial Reform

Mexico President Says There Is "Pause" In Relationship With U.S. Embassy In Country After Ambassador's Comments On Proposed Judicial Reform

Mexico President Says 'There Is Nothing Rational' That Could Cause A Break In Trade Integration With The United States

President Of Mexico Says Tesla's Musk's Comment On The Possibility Of Not Investing In Mexico "Is Not Serious", Saying He "Must Have Another Business Plan"

Arcelor Mittal Asks Mexican Authorities To Enforce Rule Of Law And Guarantee Security In The Municipality Where It Operates

President Of Mexico Will Send Letter To Former President Donald Trump About Migration And The Importance Of Economic Integration, Says Donald Trump "Is Not Well Informed"

Fitch Affirms Mexico's Long-Term Foreign-Currency IDR At 'BBB-' With Stable Outlook; Notes Proposed Judicial Reforms Could Negatively Impact Institutional Profile; Uncertainty Over Incoming Administration's Efforts To Narrow Deficit Consistent With Stable Debt/GDP; Expects Economic Activity To Pick Up For Rest Of Year After Weak Q1; Anticipates Slight Slowdown In Economic Growth Next Year

Market Commentary: 45 And Counting

Weekly Commentary: Accelerating Wall Street And Subprime Booms

Weekly Commentary: Paul Tudor Jones Insight

The most overbought and oversold equities around the world

EWZ: A Cautionary Tale Of Fiscal Struggles And Currency Chaos

EWW: Buying Mexican Equities Was A Mistake I Made In 2024 (Rating Downgrade)

Weekly Commentary: Paradigm Shifts

Mexico would retaliate if Trump imposes 25% tariffs, economy chief says

Weekly Commentary: Power

ACTV

AFMC

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ARKK

ASHR

ASHS

AVUV

BAPR

BBCA

BRZU

CHIQ

CQQQ

CUBA

CXSE

DBEU

DBJP

DXJS

ECNS

ENZL

EUDG

EWUS

EWZS

FLAU

FLCA

FLGB

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GREK

HEDJ

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IEUR

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INDL

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IVOO

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MEXX

SCHE

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XSOE

멕시코 금융 자산은 화요일 투자자들이 <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/mexico" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-google-interstitial="false">국내 정치 전개</a>에 부정적으로 반응함에 따라 상당한 매도 압력을 받았다.
많은 사람들이 이를 사법 독립에 대한 위협이자 멕시코의 정의와 민주주의에 대한 잠재적인 타협으로 간주하는 사법 개혁 제안에 대한 우려가 커지고 있다.
iShares MSCI Mexico ETF(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EWW#NYSE">EWW</a>)는 전날 2.3% 하락한 데 이어 화요일 2.83% 하락했다. 멕시코 페소도 미국 달러당 19.73달러로 급락해 2022년 12월 말 이후 최저치를 기록했다.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">논란이 되는 사법 개혁</h3>
2024년 2월, 멕시코 대통령 안드레스 마누엘 로페스 오브라도르(AMLO)는 국가 사법 시스템을 전면 개편하기 위해 논란이 많은 사법 개혁 제안을 도입했다. 이 제안된 변경 사항에는 대법원을 포함한 판사들에 대한 대중 선거 도입과 사법 시스템 감독에 대한 대대적인 구조 조정이 포함된다.
이 개혁은 격렬한 정치적 논쟁을 촉발시켰으며 2024년 9월까지 의회에서 중요한 투표에 직면할 것으로 예상된다. 이 투표는 AMLO가 대통령 임기 마지막 몇 달에 접어들면서 이루어진다.
의회에서 &#8216;초다수&#8217;를 차지하고 있는 차기 대통령 클라우디아 셰인바움(Claudia Sheinbaum)은 개혁에 대한 강력한 지지를 표명하며 이 개혁이 자신의 행정부에서 최우선 과제가 될 것임을 시사했다.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">사법 독립성에 대한 우려로 외교적 긴장 고조</h3>
이번 사법 개혁을 둘러싼 긴장이 멕시코와 미국 간에 고조되고 있다.
AMLO는 화요일 아침 이 제안된 변경 사항에 대해 켄 살라자르(Ken Salazar) 미국 대사가 비판적인 발언을 한 이후 멕시코 주재 미국 대사관과의 관계가 &#8216;중단&#8217;되었다고 밝혔다. 살라자르는 이번 개혁이 멕시코의 법치주의를 훼손할 수 있다고 지적하면서 심각한 우려를 표명했다.
"평생 법치주의를 지지해 온 경험을 바탕으로 저는 판사의 대중 직접 선거가 멕시코 민주주의의 기능에 큰 위험이 된다고 믿고 있다. 모든 사법 개혁에는 사법부가 강화되고 정치 부패의 대상이 되지 않도록 보장하는 올바른 종류의 보호 장치가 있어야 한다"고 살라자르가 성명에서 말했다.
이 개혁에서 가장 논란이 되는 측면 중 하나는 대중 투표로 판사를 선출하자는 제안인데, 비평가들은 이것이 공로 기반 선발 과정의 무결성을 훼손할 수 있다고 주장한다.
멕시코 현지 신문인 엘 이코노미스타(El Economista)가 보도한 바와 같이, 국제 판사 협회(IAJ)도 이번 개혁이 사법 독립을 위태롭게 하고 널리 인정되는 국제 원칙에 위배될 수 있다고 우려를 표명했다.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">신용 평가사와 투자 은행, 개혁 반대</h3>
제안된 개혁은 금융 부문에도 경각심을 불러일으켰다. AMLO는 사법 개혁의 잠재적 경제적 영향에 대한 국제 신용 평가 기관 및 투자 은행의 경고를 일축했다.
S&amp;P 글로벌 코모더티 인사이츠(Global Commodity Insights)의 연구 및 분석 이사인 데이비드 크리스소토모(David Crisóstomo)는 &#8220;이러한 균형추를 방해하면 확실성이 약화된다. 이는 기업이 국가에 대한 투자를 평가할 때 가치가 있다&#8221;고 말했다.
피치 레이팅스(Fitch Ratings)는 지난달 "멕시코에서 제안된 사법 개혁이 사법 시스템의 자율성과 질을 저해할 경우 비금융 기업들의 투자 욕구와 비즈니스 환경에 부정적인 영향을 미칠 수 있다"고 밝혔다.
피치 레이팅스는 멕시코가 제안한 사법 개혁이 특히 제조업, 수출 지향 산업, 산업용 부동산과 관련된 부문에서 미국에 대한 근접 기회를 약화시킬 수 있다는 우려를 제기했다. 이 신용 평가 기관은 이 시나리오에서 멕시코 기업들이 느린 경제 성장으로 인해 더욱 어려운 운영 환경을 경험할 수 있다고 경고했다.
지난주 모건스탠리는 멕시코에 대한 투자의견을 비중축소로 하향 조정했는데, 이는 멕시코 주식이 이 지역에 비해 저조한 성과를 낼 것으로 예상됨을 의미한다. 이러한 강등은 국가의 경제 안정성에 대한 광범위한 우려를 반영하여 제안된 사법적 변화에 대한 대응으로 이루어졌다.
사진 출처: Richie Chan/Shutterstock.com
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