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유럽연합(EU)은 &#34;상호적&#34; 무역 조치의 4월 2일 시한이 다가옴에 따라 트럼프 행정부의 20% 관세 부과 가능성에 대비하고 있다.

트럼프의 EU 관세 20% 부과에도 4월 유럽 증시 랠리 가능

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독립기념일을 맞아 미국 시장이 휴장하면서 목요일 유럽 주식과 통화가 상승해 현재 진행 중인 영국 총선에도 불구하고 위험 회피 기미가 보이지 않았다.
노동당은 14년 연속 보수(토리당) 집권을 끝내고 압승을 거둘 것으로 예상된다. 선거를 앞두고 노동당은 보수당을 상대로 약 20%포인트 앞섰다.

영국 선거 결과에 앞서 영국 파운드와 유럽 주식 시장이 상승, 비트코인은 하락

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Shares of major Europe-related ETFs are trading lower as global markets continue to decline following President Trump's announcement of sweeping tariffs.

It appears that investors placing large bets on Europe are in for a bumpy ride. Just as cash began pouring back into European ETFs, President Trump threw a curveball—hitting European imports with tough new tariffs. As the Stoxx 600 plunged 2.7% and auto stocks took a beating, some <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs">ETFs might be especially at risk</a>. These three funds might take the heat the hardest:
Also Read: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/regulations/25/04/44631916/wall-street-wipes-out-2-trillion-apple-eyes-worst-day-since-covid-19-pandemic-oil-plummets-whats-driving-markets-thursday">Wall Street Wipes Out $2 Trillion, Apple Eyes Worst Day Since COVID-19 Pandemic, Oil Plummets: What&#8217;s Driving Markets Thursday?</a>
iShares MSCI Germany ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EWG#NYSE">EWG</a>): The iShares MSCI Germany ETF has been popular so far this year, attracting more than $1 billion of U.S. money in net flows year to date, according to BlackRock data cited in a Reuters report. However, Germany&#8217;s economy depends heavily on exports, and Trump&#8217;s 25% tariff on foreign-made vehicles is a direct blow to Germany&#8217;s auto behemoths. With the Stoxx Autos index already <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/03/european-markets-live-updates-reaction-to-trump-tariffs-watched.html">down </a>almost 4%, stocks such as Volkswagen, BMW and Daimler may pull this ETF lower.
SPDR EURO STOXX 50 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FEZ#NYSE">FEZ</a>): This ETF follows Europe&#8217;s largest blue-chip stocks and with France&#8217;s CAC 40 and Germany&#8217;s DAX falling more than 3% on Thursday, things are not pretty. With a 20% tariff on EU imports, large industrials, financials and tech shares that make up this ETF are all under threat. The precipitous decline in banks on Thursday (-5.6%) and tech (-4.5%) is another red flag for FEZ investors.
Select STOXX Europe Aerospace &amp; Defense ETF (BATS:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EUAD#BATS">EUAD</a>): Defense stocks are a highlight in the European markets, but this ETF is not immune to tariff issues. While the EU&#8217;s military spending is increasing, supply chains are highly integrated with the U.S. If higher costs for defense companies in Europe result from tariffs on components or as a result of retaliatory EU actions, then this ETF might lose some of its new momentum.
Also Read: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/global/25/04/44631606/trumps-tariff-exemptions-include-semiconductors-pharmaceuticals-oil-and-more">Trump&#8217;s Tariff Exemptions Include Semiconductors, Pharmaceuticals, Oil And More</a>
The Bottom Line
European ETFs were on the rebound, with American investors sending a record $10.6 billion to them during the first quarter of the calendar year, reported Reuters. <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/tariffs">Trump&#8217;s tariff blitz</a> is different. With automaker, industrial and bank stocks getting crushed, investors in these ETFs might need to buckle up for a wild ride ahead. Now, the question is: temporary tariffs or is it a long, ugly trade war? Buckle up.
Read Next: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/04/44633773/textbook-lesson-this-leveraged-etf-plunged-73-since-inception-a-warning-for-crypto-investors">Textbook Lesson: This Leveraged ETF Plunged 73% Since Inception – A Warning For Crypto Investors?</a></li>
</ul>
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EUAD

Trump's Latest Move Could Wipe Out Gains In These 3 ETFs

Shares of major Europe-related ETFs are trading lower as markets react to President Trump's announcement of sweeping tariffs.

As global markets reel from Donald Trump&#8216;s sweeping tariff announcement, speculators who wagered on a chain reaction of trade retaliation may soon cash <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/04/44626421/trumps-reign-of-tariffs-unleashes-d-day-on-wall-street-analyst-warns-of-stagflation-risk">in the big prize.</a>
On Thursday, trading on CFTC-regulated prediction platform Kalshi lit up with activity as speculators priced in a sharp rise in retaliatory tariffs from major U.S. trading partners. 
The market titled "Which countries will impose tariffs on the US before Q3 2025?" saw odds spike across several jurisdictions in the wake of Trump's announcement.
See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/04/44624245/tariffs-to-plug-the-hole-for-income-tax-cuts-to-come-economists-predict-what-more-could-be-expected">Trump Tariffs To &#8216;Plug The Hole&#8217; For Income Tax Cuts To Come: Economists Predict What More Could Be Expected</a>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Global Trade War Now Becomes The Base Case</h3>
<ul>
<li>The odds of South Korea enacting retaliatory measures soared to 79%, up 29 percentage points in a single day. </li>
<li>Japan followed with a 33-point jump to 73%</li>
<li>South Africa climbed to 74%, up 16 points.</li>
<li>India saw a more cautious move, with odds now at 35%</li>
<li>Kalshi traders assigned a 96% probability that Brussels will strike back with its own tariffs in the coming months.</li>
</ul>
Only Mexico moved in the opposite direction. Following Trump&#8217;s exemption of North American partners from the new tariff structure, the odds of retaliation from the southern neighbor collapsed to 45%, down 31 percentage points.
<figure class="wp-block-table"> 
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Country</th>
<th>Odds of Tariff Retaliation</th>
<th>Change vs. Day Before</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>&#x1f1ea;&#x1f1fa; European Union</td>
<td>96%</td>
<td>+12%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>&#x1f1f0;&#x1f1f7; South Korea</td>
<td>79%</td>
<td>+29%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>&#x1f1ef;&#x1f1f5; Japan</td>
<td>73%</td>
<td>+33%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>&#x1f1ff;&#x1f1e6; South Africa</td>
<td>74%</td>
<td>+16%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>&#x1f1ee;&#x1f1f3; India</td>
<td>35%</td>
<td>+9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>&#x1f1f2;&#x1f1fd; Mexico</td>
<td>45%</td>
<td>-31%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Source: Kalshi</figcaption></figure>
Speaking on Bloomberg TV, U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick attempted to downplay the likelihood of backlash, saying the tariffs will be applied broadly and uniformly, and adding that "it will not be effective for countries to retaliate against Trump tariffs."
<iframe loading="lazy" src="https://kalshi.com/external-widget/events-categorical/KXFOREIGNTARIFF-25JUL01?color_scheme=light&#038;widget_size=large&#038;utm_campaign=benzinga_widget" width="488px" height="242px" style="border:0"></iframe>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Country ETFs Witness Deep Declines</h2>
Amid the turmoil on Wall Street, U.S.-listed country ETFs took a beating Thursday as investors dumped risk ahead of possible tit-for-tat tariffs,
The VanEck Vietnam ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VNM#NYSE">VNM</a>) plunged more than 8% in premarket trading, on track for its worst session since March 2020. The U.S. will apply a 46% tariff rate on Vietnam.
Japan's iShares MSCI Japan Index Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EWJ#NYSE">EWJ</a>) dropped 3%, while the iShares China Large Cap ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FXI#NYSE">FXI</a>) fell 1.8%. The two biggest Asian economies will see their respective tariff rate rising to 24% and 34%, respectively. 
India's iShares MSCI India ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/INDA#NYSE">INDA</a>) and South Korea's iShares MSCI South Korea ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EWY#NYSE">EWY</a>) declined 1.1% and 1.5% respectively. India and South Korea are poised to face a 25% and 26% increase, respectively, in the cost of exporting goods to the U.S.
The SPDR DJ Euro STOXX 50 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FEZ#NYSE">FEZ</a>) dipped 0.9%, while the iShares South Africa Index Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EZA#NYSE">EZA</a>) fell 4.5%. 
Read Now: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/04/44624245/tariffs-to-plug-the-hole-for-income-tax-cuts-to-come-economists-predict-what-more-could-be-expected">Trump Tariffs To &#8216;Plug The Hole&#8217; For Income Tax Cuts To Come: Economists Predict What More Could Be Expected</a></li>
</ul>
Image: Shutterstock

INDA

Retaliation Odds Spike After Trump's Heavy Tariffs, Sending Country ETFs Tumbling

The European Union is bracing for potential 20% tariffs from the Trump administration as the April 2 deadline for <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/tariffs">&#8220;reciprocal&#8221; trade measures looms. </a>
The <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/c5d9a416-16d7-410e-96a5-cdfe1dc02a62">Financial Times reported </a>Wednesday that Maroš Šefčovič, the European Commissioner for Trade and Economic Security, warned that the U.S. may slap 20% tariffs on European Union products starting April 2, with no exemptions for any of the bloc's 27 member states.
According to two people briefed on the talks, Šefčovič said that while the final contours of the U.S. trade plan remain unclear, the scale of tariffs discussed would be around 20%—a level that would mark the highest U.S. tariffs on the EU since the bloc's founding members initiated a common trade policy in the late 1950s.
Šefčovič said such tariffs would be "devastating" for Europe's economy, which is already grappling with weak growth and elevated inflation.
President Donald Trump declared that April 2 would be "Liberation Day," a symbolic moment when "reciprocal" tariffs would be introduced against trading partners accused of taking advantage of low U.S. trade barriers.
Šefčovič said the EU would respond in kind, potentially triggering a new round of retaliatory tariffs. The bloc&#8217;s trade office has not confirmed what countermeasures are being considered, but Brussels has previously targeted U.S. agriculture, tech and spirits during past disputes.
On Wednesday, Trump also said that new tariffs on imported automobiles would be unveiled.
Markets React, But Seasonality Could Offer Support
Following the tariff threat, iShares Europe ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IEV#NYSE">IEV</a>), which tracks major European equities, fell 1.4% on Wednesday, marking a two-week low. 
Shares of luxury German automaker Mercedes Benz Group AG (OTCPK: MBGAF) plummeted over 4%, eyeing the worst session since November 6, 2024, when they tumbled in reaction to Donald Trump&#8217;s election victory.
Similarly, Germany&#8217;s biggest automaker, Volkswagen AG (OTCPK: VWAGY), witnessed a 3% drop.
Yet, the selloff may not necessarily trigger a prolonged downtrend, especially for traders looking at seasonality-related strategies. 
April has historically brought a tailwind for European stocks. Over the last 25 years, IEV has posted an average gain of 3.2% in April – the most than in any other month – with positive performance in 71% of those years. The strongest April on record came in 2003, when the ETF soared 14.1%.
The SPDR DJ Euro STOXX 50 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FEZ#NYSE">FEZ</a>)—another benchmark for Eurozone blue chips—has delivered an average April return of 2.9%, ending the month in the green 73% of the time.
Read now: 
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs/sector-etfs/25/03/44495583/these-4-sp-500-sectors-could-outperform-the-market-in-april-if-history-has-a-say">These 4 S&amp;P 500 Sectors Could Outperform The Market In April, If History Has A Say</a></li>
</ul>
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Trump May Slap A 20% Tariff On EU, Yet April Still Offers Rally Hopes For European Stocks

Shares of major Europe-related ETFs are trading lower as investors await new auto tariff announcements by U.S. President Trump on Wednesday

Shares of major Europe-related ETFs are trading lower, led by a decline in travel stocks, after the closure of Heathrow Airport following a fire at a nearby electrical substation.

Shares of major Europe-related ETFs are trading higher after the German parliament passed debt reforms which is expected to lead to an increase in defence and infrastructure spending.

Shares of major Europe-related ETFs are trading higher after German lawmakers reportedly made progress toward an agreement on reforming the country's so-called debt brake rule.

Shares of major Europe-related ETFs are trading lower amid global investor concerns regarding U.S. tariffs and trade policies, which is leading to bearish sentiment in markets.

Shares of Europe-related ETFs are trading higher after Germany announced a new $500 billion stimulus package.

Shares of Europe-related ETFs are trading higher as defense stocks surge following European leaders' peace plan talks and defense spending pledge.

<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/europe">European fund managers</a> are optimistic that rising economic growth will fuel a rally in the region's stocks.
This bullishness is already reflected in performance, per a Financial Times report. The Stoxx Europe 600 index has climbed nearly 10% in this year thus far, outpacing the S&amp;P 500's 4% rise and Japan's Topix, which has seen a slight decline.
For investors looking to ride this momentum, <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs">here are three ETFs</a> offering strong exposure to European stocks:
SPDR Euro Stoxx 50 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FEZ#NYSE">FEZ</a>): The SPDR EURO STOXX 50 ETF has been gaining momentum, recently hitting a 52-week high and climbing 15.16% from its 52-week low of $47.11 per share.
<ul>
<li>What's inside? FEZ tracks the EURO STOXX 50 Index, which represents the performance of the largest companies in the Eurozone across 19 different sectors. With an annual expense ratio of 0.29%, it offers broad exposure to Europe's biggest players.</li>
<li>Why is it moving? Optimism over a <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/02/43791431/whats-driving-markets-tuesday">potential peace deal between Ukraine and Russia</a>, fueled by recent talks between U.S. and Russian officials, has lifted European equities. Strong earnings reports from major European firms have also contributed to the fund's rally.</li>
</ul>
Also Read: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/global/25/02/43769730/ukraine-raises-alarm-over-us-russia-talks-on-war-without-kyivs-involvement">Ukraine Raises Alarm Over US-Russia Talks on War Without Kyiv&#8217;s Involvement</a>
Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VGK#NYSE">VGK</a>): This ETF provides a broader European exposure, with holdings in companies across sectors. Novo Nordisk (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NOVO#NYSE">NOVO</a>), AstraZeneca (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AZN#NASDAQ">AZN</a>) and Nestle are among the top names adorning the portfolio.
<ul>
<li>What's inside? VGK tracks the FTSE Developed Europe Index, covering a wide range of European equities beyond just the Eurozone, including the U.K. The fund's low expense ratio of 0.09% makes it a cost-effective way to gain diversified exposure.</li>
<li>Why is it moving? Sentiment around European stocks has improved. Investors are relieved that the EU, seen as a potential target of Trump's &#8220;America First&#8221; trade policies, has so far avoided new tariffs.</li>
</ul>
Xtrackers MSCI EAFE Hedged Equity ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DBEF#NYSE">DBEF</a>): Currency fluctuations can impact returns when investing in foreign stocks, which is where DBEF comes in. This fund offers exposure to European, Australasian, and Far Eastern stocks while hedging against currency risk.
<ul>
<li>What's inside? DBEF tracks the MSCI EAFE Index but incorporates a hedge against fluctuations in the U.S. dollar. This makes it an appealing option for U.S.-based investors looking to minimize currency-related volatility. The expense ratio is 0.36%.</li>
<li>Why is it moving? With the euro weakening against the dollar, European earnings might look more attractive to foreign investors. </li>
</ul>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Europe: The Best-Performing Equity Market</h2>
Bank of America's latest survey of 200-plus European fund managers, overseeing $482 billion in assets, found that 38% see European equities as undervalued. That&#8217;s the highest level in six years, according to the Financial Times.
"A plurality of investors expects Europe to be the best-performing equity market globally this year," BofA researchers noted, per Financial Times. A net 12% of respondents are now "overweight" European equities, compared to a net 25% who were "underweight" in December.
The rally in European equities is being powered by renewed economic optimism, potential fiscal stimulus in Germany, and a shift in sentiment among global investors. However, some experts urge caution. Pictet Asset Management's Luca Paolini warns that the rally is &#8220;based on hope, not facts,&#8221; with sentiment possibly overrunning fundamentals.
Whether the rally is sustainable remains to be seen, but for now, European stocks are back in focus.
Read Next: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/02/43818555/trade-war-redux-a-bumpy-ride-ahead-for-these-etfs-after-trumps-tariff-move-on-auto-pharma-chip-imports">Trade War Redux: These ETFs Due For Bumpy Ride Thanks To Trump Tariffs On Auto, Pharma, Chip Imports</a></li>
</ul>
Photo: Shutterstock

DBEF

NOVO

Big Money Is Betting On Europe, Should You? 3 ETFs To Watch

Shares of Europe-related ETFs are trading higher amid reports Trump and Putin will "start negotiations immediately" over Russia and Ukraine, resulting in greater optimism toward equities in the region

Shares of Europe-related ETFs are trading higher following Trump's inauguration as global investors weigh the new administration's economic policies.

European markets sank on Tuesday and U.S. stock futures followed suit, weighed down by escalating geopolitical tensions after Russian President Vladimir Putin revised the country&#8217;s nuclear doctrine to broaden the conditions <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/vladimir-putin">for deploying atomic weapons. </a>
Putin's move to ease the threshold for nuclear strikes came just a day after the White House authorized Ukraine to deploy American-made long-range ATACMS missiles deep into Russian territory. 
The Euro STOXX 50, as tracked by the SPDR DJ Euro STOXX 50 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FEZ#NYSE">FEZ</a>), and STOXX 600 indices dropped 1.2% and 0.8%, respectively, both tracking toward their lowest closing levels since mid-August.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Putin Expands Nuclear Doctrine Amid US-Backed Ukrainian Strike</h3>
On Tuesday, Ukraine reportedly carried out its first ATACMS strike on a military facility near Karachev in Russia&#8217;s Bryansk region, about 70 miles from Ukraine, according to reports by <a href="https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/us-officially-allows-ukraine-to-to-strike-1732012491.html">RBC Ukraine</a>.
RBC Ukraine cited a Defense Forces source confirming a successful strike, marking the first time these long-range missiles were used in such a capacity. Russia acknowledged the attack.
&#8220;Indeed, for the first time, we used ATACMS to strike Russian territory. The strike was carried out against a facility in the Bryansk region, and it was successfully hit,&#8221; the source reported.
On Monday, the previous day, U.S. Under Secretary of State for Western Hemisphere Affairs Brian A. Nichols officially confirmed that the White House had given Ukraine approval to use long-range weapons to target Russian territory.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">European Markets React: Euro, Bank Equities Drop</h3>
The geopolitical developments triggered a sharp selloff across European equities. In Poland, the WIG20 stock index plunged 2.5%, reflecting the country's proximity to the conflict and heightened exposure to regional risks. 
European banks also bore the brunt of the downturn, with the banking index slipping 2.2%. Among the hardest-hit financial institutions were CaixaBank SA (OTCPK: CAIXY), which sank 5.1%, FinecoBank Spa (OTCPK: FCBBF), down 4.2%, and Unicredito Spa (OTCPK: UNCFF), which dropped 3.3%.
The euro also came under pressure, falling 0.3% to hover at $1.0550 against the U.S. dollar, as traders sought safety in the greenback amid mounting geopolitical risks.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Flight To Safety: Bonds, Gold Shine</h3>
Heightened geopolitical risks spurred demand for safe-haven assets. Yields on long-dated U.S. Treasuries fell by 4-5 basis points, lifting bond prices. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) could see strong gains following this move.
Gold surged 1%, building on a 1.9% rally from the previous session, as investors sought shelter from rising uncertainties.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">US Premarket Action</h3>
U.S. equity futures mirrored the cautious sentiment overseas, with Dow Jones Industrial Average futures down 0.4%, S&amp;P 500 futures declining 0.3%, and Nasdaq 100 futures slipping 0.1%. 
Walmart Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/WMT#NYSE">WMT</a>) surged over 3% in premarket trading after reporting stronger-than-expected quarterly earnings. 
Among defense stocks, Lockheed Martin Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/LMT#NYSE">LMT</a>) gained 0.9%, while Boeing Co. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BA#NYSE">BA</a>) fell by the same margin.
Read Next:
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/11/42048963/why-nvidia-earnings-may-trigger-massive-sp-500-volatility">Why Nvidia Earnings May Trigger Massive S&amp;P 500 Volatility</a></li>
</ul>
Photo: Shutterstock

Politics

Global

CAIXY

FCBBF

iShares Trust Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund

UNCFF

Putin Revises Nuclear Doctrine For Broader Strikes After US-Backed Ukrainian Attack: Markets Drop, Bonds Gain

Gold futures climbed 1.6% on Monday morning in New York, on track to snap a <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/commodities/24/11/42036300/go-for-gold-says-goldman-sachs-precious-yellow-metal-price-would-rise-in-2025-amid-central-bank-buying-fed-rate-cuts">six-session losing streak</a>.
The yellow metal&#8217;s surge came on the heels of escalating rhetoric from Moscow after reports indicated that President Joe Biden had authorized Ukraine to launch strikes on Russian territory using American-made long-range missiles.
This marks a significant policy shift by the outgoing administration ahead of Donald Trump's January inauguration.
See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/space/24/11/42033393/spacexs-gwynne-shotwell-sees-starlink-becoming-profitable-in-2024-bets-on-starship-making-it-one-of-the-most-valuable-companies-amid-reports-of-tender-offer-valuing-it-over-250b">SpaceX&#8217;s Gwynne Shotwell Sees Starlink Becoming Profitable In 2024</a>
Such strikes would represent "a qualitatively new round of tension" with the U.S., Dmitry Peskov, a spokesperson for Russian President Vladimir Putin, said per Reuters.
In September, Putin had already declared that the U.S.&#8217;s allowing Ukraine to fire Western missiles into Russian territory would mean NATO's direct participation in the war.
On Monday, Peskov reiterated this stance, accusing the Biden administration of &#8220;adding fuel to the fire&#8221; as its term winds down.
Reports confirmed that thousands of North Korean troops have been deployed to Russia's Kursk region to aid Moscow's forces following a Ukrainian incursion.
The rally in gold, tracked by the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>), mirrored gains across the broader commodity complex, with oil and natural gas prices also advancing.
Futures on West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil rose 0.8%, while Henry Hub U.S. natural gas futures surge by nearly 4% amid concerns over energy disruptions in Europe.
On Saturday, Gazprom, the state-controlled Russian natural gas giant, halted supplies to Austria, heightening fears of energy shortages in Europe as the winter season approaches. The decision followed Friday's rare hour-long phone call between German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Putin, their first direct communication in nearly two years.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Risk-Off Sentiment Hits European Markets</h3>
The heightened geopolitical risks weighed on European equities Monday. 
The Euro Stoxx 50, broadly tracked by the SPDR DJ Euro STOXX 50 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FEZ#NYSE">FEZ</a>), fell 0.7%, while Italy's FTSE MIB, tracked by the iShares MSCI Italy ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EWI#NYSE">EWI</a>), was the hardest hit among major indices, sliding 1%. 
A hour ahead the Wall Street market open, futures on major U.S. indices hovered near flat, signaling caution among investors hesitant to buy the dip after last week&#8217;s declines.
The SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>), which tracks the S&amp;P 500 index, fell a combined 1.9% on Thursday and Friday as hawkish comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and uncertainty surrounding Donald Trump&#8217;s potential economic policies dampened investor sentiment.
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</ul>
Image: Shutterstock

Gold, Natural Gas Prices Rally As US-Russia Tensions Escalate Over Ukraine's Long-Range Strikes

Shares of Europe-related ETFs are trading lower after Donald Trump wins the 2024 presidential election.

The European Central Bank (ECB) kept its key interest rates unchanged at its July meeting, <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/eurozone">aligning with market expectations.</a>
The Governing Council did not provide specific guidance on future policy, stating they were &#8220;not pre-committing to a particular rate path,&#8221; slightly chilling market expectations which are heavily betting on a September rate cut.
The deposit rate remains at 3.75%, the refinancing rate at 4.25%, and the marginal lending rate at 4.5%. These rates were previously reduced by 25 basis points during the June meeting, marking the first rate cut by the ECB since 2019.
Domestic Price Pressures, Services Inflation Remain Elevated
Although some measures of underlying inflation ticked up in May due to one-off factors, most metrics were either stable or edged down in June. The inflationary impact of high wage growth has been mitigated by profits, and monetary policy continues to keep financing conditions restrictive, according to Frankfurt. 
However, &#8220;domestic inflation remains high. Wages are still rising at an elevated rate, making up for the past period of high inflation,&#8221; ECB President Christine Lagarde stated.
Services inflation is considered elevated, and headline inflation is likely to stay above the ECB&#8217;s target well into next year.
Meeting By Meeting, Data-Dependent Approach
&#8220;The risks to economic growth are tilted to the downside. A weaker world economy or an escalation in trade tensions between major economies would weigh on euro area growth,&#8221; Lagarde said. 
The ECB remains determined to ensure that inflation returns to its 2% medium-term target in a timely manner. European policymakers stated they will keep policy rates sufficiently restrictive for as long as necessary to achieve this goal, following a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach.
Market Reactions
The euro, as tracked by the Invesco CurrencyShares Euro Currency Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FXE#NYSE">FXE</a>), held broadly steady against the U.S. dollar at 1.0930. 
European equity markets rose Thursday, with the broader Euro STOXX 50 Index, as tracked by the SPDR DJ Euro STOXX 50 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FEZ#NYSE">FEZ</a>), rose 0.7%. France was the top performer among major European countries, with the CAC 40 index, as monitored through the iShares MSCI France Index Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EWQ#NYSE">EWQ</a>), rising 0.9%. 
Read now: 
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/real-estate/reit/24/07/39816656/fed-rate-cut-expectations-drop-mortgage-rates-to-4-month-lows-surge-in-new-applications-refinanc">Fed Rate Cut Expectations Drop Mortgage Rates To 4-Month Lows: Surge In New Applications, Refinance Demand</a></li>
</ul>
Photo: Shutterstock

European Central Bank Holds Interest Rates Unchanged, Keeps Markets Guessing On September Rate Cut

With U.S. markets closed for Independence Day, European stocks and currencies rose on Thursday, showing no signs of risk aversion despite the ongoing <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/eurozone/24/05/39048040/uk-election-how-it-works-and-which-markets-could-be-affected">UK legislative elections</a>.
The Labour Party is expected to achieve a landslide victory, ending 14 consecutive years of Conservative (or Tories) leadership. Heading to the elections, the Labour Party led by about 20 percentage points against Tories. 
Polls closed at 5:00 p.m. Thursday, with results expected later tonight. As of 6:00 p.m. EST, the New York Times <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/07/04/world/uk-election-results">reported</a> that a nationwide exit poll showed that the Labour Party&#8217;s leader, Keir Starmer, was likely to become prime minister.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">UK Stocks And Sterling</h3>
Ipek Ozkardeskaya, an analyst at Swissquote Bank Ltd, outlined two likely scenarios: a strong Labour majority with 150 seats — nearly double Boris Johnson&#8216;s 80-seat majority in 2019 — or a super majority with 250 seats. 
Both outcomes would enable Labour to enact significant reforms in the UK.
&#8220;Even investors want to see Labour take over the reins this time,&#8221; she remarked.
Analysts perceive a Labour victory as positive for UK stocks and sterling. Ozkardeskaya highlighted that small and medium-sized British stocks will benefit more than the FTSE 100, which is heavily influenced by global market dynamics.
On Thursday, the FTSE 100 Index rose over 1%, marking its second consecutive day in the green. Smith &amp; Nephew led gains, up 7.6% following Cevian Capital&#8216;s acquisition of a 5% stake. Bunzl and Melrose each rose by 2.9%, while Barclays plc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BCS#NYSE">BCS</a>) led the banking sector with a 2.1% increase.
The British pound, tracked by the Invesco CurrencyShares British Pound Sterling ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FXB#NYSE">FXB</a>), edged 0.2% higher, marking its sixth consecutive session of gains. The euro saw similar performance.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Other Movers On Thursday</h3>
The dollar weakened against all major currencies, with the Japanese yen gaining 0.3% against the greenback.
Confidence that Marine Le Pen&#8216;s far-right National Rally will not obtain an absolute majority at the second round of French elections this Sunday buoyed other European markets.
The French CAC 40 index rose 0.8%, as did the Italian FTSE Mib, while the German DAX inched 0.4% higher.
The broader Euro STOXX 50 Index, tracked by the SPDR DJ Euro STOXX 50 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FEZ#NYSE">FEZ</a>), closed 0.4% higher, notably surging above the key 50-day moving average for the first time since June 13.
Chart: Euro STOXX 50 Index Closes Above 50-Day Average
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="500" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/04121958/image-7-1024x500.png" alt="" class="wp-image-420262" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/04121958/image-7-1024x500.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/04121958/image-7-300x147.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/04121958/image-7-768x375.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/04121958/image-7-1536x750.png 1536w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/04121958/image-7.png 1920w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
In commodities markets, copper rallied 0.9%, marking its fifth straight positive session. Gold rose 0.2%, while silver fell 0.2%.
Oil prices showed robust gains, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) light crude futures climbing to $84, up 0.8%.
Cryptocurrencies were the weakest market segment:
<ul>
<li>Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) down 3.8%</li>
<li>Solana (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/sol/usd">SOL</a>) down 4.1%</li>
<li>Ethereum (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/eth/usd">ETH</a>) down 5%</li>
<li>Ripple (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/xrp/usd">XRP</a>) down 5.1%</li>
<li>Cardano (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/ada/usd">ADA</a>) down 5.4%.</li>
</ul>
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/top-stories/24/07/39634920/july-fourth-cookout-inflation-hits-record-highs-your-grocery-bill-may-be-a-shock-but-this-side-dish">July Fourth Cookout Inflation Hits Record Highs &#8211; &#8216;Your Grocery Bill May Be A Shock&#8217; But This Side Dish Costs Less, Expert Says</a></li>
</ul>
Image: Pixabay

British Pound, European Stocks Surge Ahead Of UK Election Results; Bitcoin Plummets: What's Driving Markets Thursday?

유럽연합(EU)은 <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/tariffs" target="_blank" rel="noopener">"상호적" 무역 조치</a>의 4월 2일 시한이 다가옴에 따라 트럼프 행정부의 20% 관세 부과 가능성에 대비하고 있다.
수요일(26일) <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/c5d9a416-16d7-410e-96a5-cdfe1dc02a62" target="_blank" rel="noopener">파이낸셜타임스</a>는 유럽 무역 및 경제 안보 담당 집행위원인 마로시 셰프코비치(Maroš Šefčovič)가 미국이 4월 2일부터 EU 제품에 20%의 관세를 부과할 수 있으며, 27개 회원국 중 어느 국가도 예외가 될 수 없다고 경고했다고 <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/c5d9a416-16d7-410e-96a5-cdfe1dc02a62" target="_blank" rel="noopener">보도했다</a>.
회담에 대해 브리핑한 두 사람에 따르면, 셰프초비치는 미국 무역 계획의 최종 윤곽은 아직 불분명하지만 논의되는 관세 규모는 약 20%가 될 것이며, 이는 1950년대 후반 EU 창립 회원국들이 공동 무역 정책을 시작한 이래 가장 높은 미국 관세 수준이 될 것이라고 말했다.
세프코비치는 이러한 관세는 이미 저성장과 인플레이션 상승으로 어려움을 겪고 있는 유럽 경제에 "파괴적"일 것이라고 덧붙였다.
도널드 트럼프 대통령은 4월 2일을 미국의 낮은 무역 장벽을 이용한다는 비난을 받는 무역 파트너에 대해 "상호적" 관세가 도입되는 상징적인 순간인 "해방의 날"이라고 선언했다.
세프코비치 위원장은 EU가 현물로 대응할 것이며, 이는 새로운 보복 관세를 촉발할 가능성이 있다고 말했다. EU 무역 사무소는 어떤 대응책이 고려되고 있는지 확인하지 않았지만 EU는 이전에 과거 분쟁 중에 미국 농업, 기술 및 증류주를 표적으로 삼았다.
또한 수요일에 트럼프는 수입 자동차에 대한 새로운 관세가 공개될 것이라고 말했다.
<h3>시장은 반응하지만 계절적 요인이 지지력 제공할 수도</h3>
관세 위협 이후 주요 유럽 주식을 추종하는 iShares 유럽 ETF(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IEV#NYSE">IEV</a>)는수요일에 1.4% 하락하여 2주 만에 최저치를 기록했다.
독일의 고급 자동차 제조업체인 메르세데스 벤츠 그룹(OTCPK:<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/MBGAF">MBGAF</a>)의 주가는 4% 이상 급락하며 2024년 11월 6일 도널드 트럼프의 대선 승리로 폭락한 이후 최악의 장세를 보였다.
마찬가지로 독일 최대 자동차 제조업체인 폭스바겐(OTCPK:<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/VWAGY">VWAGY</a>)도 3% 하락했다.
하지만 이번 매도세가 반드시 장기 하락 추세를 촉발하는 것은 아니며, 특히 계절성 관련 전략을 찾는 트레이더에게는 더욱 그렇다.
역사적으로 4월은 유럽 증시에 순풍을 몰고 왔다. 지난 25년 동안 IEV는 4월에 평균 3.2%의 상승률을 기록했는데 이는 다른 어떤 달보다 높은 수치이며 이 중 71%에서 플러스 성과를 냈다. 기록상 가장 강세를 보인 4월은 2003년으로 14.1% 급등했다.
유로존 블루칩의 또 다른 벤치마크인 SPDR DJ Euro STOXX 50 ETF(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FEZ#NYSE">FEZ</a>)는 4월 평균 수익률 2.9%를 기록했으며, 73% 상승으로 한 달을 마감했다.
사진: Shutterstock
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독립기념일을 맞아 미국 시장이 휴장하면서 목요일 유럽 주식과 통화가 상승해 현재 진행 중인 <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/eurozone/24/05/39048040/uk-election-how-it-works-and-which-markets-could-be-affected" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-google-interstitial="false">영국 총선</a>에도 불구하고 위험 회피 기미가 보이지 않았다.
노동당은 14년 연속 보수(토리당) 집권을 끝내고 압승을 거둘 것으로 예상된다. 선거를 앞두고 노동당은 보수당을 상대로 약 20%포인트 앞섰다.
미 동부 시간 목요일 오후 5시에 투표가 마감되고 결과는 이날 밤 늦게 발표될 예정이다.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">영국 주식과 파운드</h3>
스위스쿼트 은행(Swissquote Bank Ltd)의 애널리스트인 이펙 오즈카르데스카야(Ipek Ozkardeskaya)는 두 가지 가능한 시나리오를 설명했다. 즉, 2019년 보리스 존슨의 80석에 거의 두 배인 150석의 강력한 노동당 과반수 또는 250석의 압도적인 다수당이다.
이러한 두 가지 결과 모두 노동당이 영국에서 중요한 개혁을 이루어낼 수 있게 할 것이다.
"투자자들도 이번에는 노동당이 정권을 잡는 것을 보고 싶어한다"고 그녀가 말했다.
분석가들은 노동당의 승리를 영국 주식과 파운드화에 긍정적인 것으로 인식하고 있다. 오즈카르데스카야는 글로벌 시장 역학에 크게 영향을 받는 FTSE 100보다 영국 중소 주식이 더 많은 이익을 얻을 것이라고 강조했다.
목요일에 FTSE 100 지수는 1% 이상 상승하여 이틀 올랐다. 스미스 앤드 네퓨(Smith &amp; Nephew)는 세비안 캐피털(Cevian Capital)이 5% 지분을 인수한 후 7.6% 상승하여 이익을 주도했다. 번즐(Bunzl)과 멜로즈(Melrose)는 각각 2.9% 상승했으며 바클레이즈(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BCS#NYSE">BCS</a>)는 2.1% 상승으로 은행 부문을 주도했다.
Invesco CurrentShares British Pound Sterling ETF(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FXB#NYSE">FXB</a>)가 추적하는 영국 파운드화는 0.2% 상승하여 6일 연속 상승세를 기록했다. 유로도 비슷한 성과를 보였다.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">목요일의 기타 주요 움직임</h3>
달러화는 모든 주요 통화에 대해 약세를 보였으며, 일본 엔화는 달러화 대비 0.3% 상승했다.
마린 르펜(Marine Le Pen)의 극우 국민연합(National Rally)가 이번 일요일 프랑스 2차 선거에서 절대 다수를 얻지 못할 것이라는 확신이 다른 유럽 시장에 활기를 불어넣었다.
프랑스 CAC 40 지수는 이탈리아 FTSE Mib와 마찬가지로 0.8% 상승했고, 독일 DAX는 0.4% 상승했다.
SPDR DJ Euro STOXX 50 ETF(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FEZ#NYSE">FEZ</a>)가 추적하는 더 넓은 Euro STOXX 50 지수는 0.4% 높게 마감했으며, 6월 13일 이후 처음으로 주요 50일 이동 평균을 크게 넘어섰다.
차트: Euro STOXX 50 지수가 50일 평균 이상으로 마감
<img decoding="async" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/04121958/image-7-1024x500.png?optimize=medium&amp;dpr=1.25&amp;auto=webp&amp;width=2048" />
원자재 상품 시장에서 구리의 경우 0.9% 상승하여, 5일 연속 올랐다. 금은 0.2% 상승했으며, 은은 0.2% 하락하였다.
원유 가격은 강하게 상승하였으며 서부 텍사스 중질유(WTI) 선물은 배럴당 84달러로 0.8% 상승했다.
Cryptocurrencies were the weakest market segment:
암호화폐는 하락했다:
<ul>
<li>비트코인 (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) 3.8% 하락</li>
<li>솔라나 (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/sol/usd">SOL</a>) 4.1% 하락</li>
<li>이더리움 (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/eth/usd">ETH</a>) 5% 하락</li>
<li>XRP (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/xrp/usd">XRP</a>) 5.1% 하락</li>
<li>카르다노 (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/ada/usd">ADA</a>) 5.4% 하락</li>
</ul>
Image: Pixabay

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