Cathie Wood, founder and CEO of ARK Invest, has recently been on a hot streak of successful and high-profile trades through her <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs/broad-u-s-equity-etfs/25/06/46107133/cathie-wood-doubles-down-on-shopify-buys-the-dip-dumps-4-6-million-worth-of-robinhood-stock-at-peak">flagship ARK ETFs.&nbsp;</a>



What To Know: Wood's recent notable trades include selling a significant stake in Circle Internet Group Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CRCL#NYSE">CRCL</a>) and increasing her investment in Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMD#NASDAQ">AMD</a>). 



These moves reflect a strategic shift in ARK's portfolio, emphasizing established technology and semiconductor exposure while reducing positions in companies that have experienced rapid price appreciation.



Read Next: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/space/25/06/46055895/ast-spacemobile-stock-downgraded-rocket-lab-prepares-electron-launch-space-stock-countdown?utm_source=articleShare">AST SpaceMobile Stock Downgraded, Rocket Lab Prepares Electron Launch: Space Stock Countdown</a>



Last week, ARK <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/06/46041276/cathie-woods-ark-invest-adds-airbnb-amd-shopify-to-portfolio-slashes-stake-in-circle-internet">offloaded more than</a> 600,000 Circle shares for approximately $147.81 million, followed by more sales amounting to an additional nearly $100 million on Monday. 



Circle, known for issuing the USDC (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/">USDC</a>) stablecoin, had seen its stock surge more than 650% since its initial public offering on June 5. Wood's decision to sell appears to be a classic profit-taking move after such a meteoric rise.&nbsp;



At the same time, ARK has been ramping<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs/broad-u-s-equity-etfs/25/06/46066220/cathie-woods-ark-invest-cashes-out-109-million-out-of-circle-internet-stock-as-shares-spike-pivots-into-robinhood-and-these-chip-stocks"> up its stake</a> in AMD, purchasing over 130,000 shares on Monday and more than 247,000 shares in the previous week, totaling tens of millions of dollars in new investments.&nbsp;



AMD is increasingly recognized as a strong alternative to NVIDIA Corp. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>) in the AI chip market, with significant growth in data center and AI processor demand. 



AMD shares are up more than 30% over the past month. The stock received a boost from analyst upgrades, with CFRA raising its rating to Strong Buy and lifting its price target to $165 from $125.&nbsp;



The upgrade reflects growing confidence in AMD's position within the semiconductor and AI sectors, areas where ARK has shown sustained interest.



Wood's strategy appears to be a bet on the broader AI chip market rather than picking a single winner, as evidenced by her holdings in both AMD and Nvidia.&nbsp;



Read Next:&nbsp;



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/health-care/25/06/46056665/unitedhealth-cvs-among-major-insurers-to-fast-track-prior-authorizations-will-it-cut-profits-even-more?utm_source=articleShare">UnitedHealth, CVS Among Major Insurers To Fast-Track Prior Authorizations: Will It Cut Profits Even More?</a></li>
</ul>



Image: Shutterstock&nbsp;

News

Management

Movers

Tech

Trading Ideas

$USDC

CRCL

NVDA

Cathie Wood's Alpha Surge: $250 Million Circle Windfall, Big AMD Buys

Electric Vehicle maker Tesla, Inc.&#8217;s (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>) chief <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/tech/25/06/46088008/elon-musk-agrees-google-had-all-the-tools-but-still-lost-the-ai-race-to-openai-echoes-social-media-post-having-the-pieces-isnt-the-same-as-playing-the-game" rel="noreferrer noopener">Elon Musk</a><a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/tech/25/06/46088008/elon-musk-agrees-google-had-all-the-tools-but-still-lost-the-ai-race-to-openai-echoes-social-media-post-having-the-pieces-isnt-the-same-as-playing-the-game" rel="noreferrer noopener"> </a>has reportedly <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/top-stories/24/06/39457749/tesla-leads-2024-us-tech-layoffs-so-far-followed-by-dell-cisco-xerox-paypal-microsoft" rel="noreferrer noopener">terminated the employment</a> of his long-time confidant Omead Afshar.



Bloomberg <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-26/musk-confidant-afshar-exits-tesla-in-latest-high-level-departure" rel="noreferrer noopener">reports</a>, citing sources familiar with the matter, that Afshar&#8217;s name no longer appears in Tesla&#8217;s internal directory, and news of his departure sparks discussion among employees.



Before his reported departure, Afshar was Tesla&#8217;s vice president in charge of sales and manufacturing in North America and Europe.



Also Read: <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/tech/25/06/46066609/elon-musks-lawyers-say-he-doesnt-use-a-computer-but-the-tesla-ceo-has-touted-an-ancient-pc-laptop-with-a-dogecoin-sticker-more-than-once" rel="noreferrer noopener">Elon Musk&#8217;s Lawyers Say He Doesn&#8217;t &#8216;Use A Computer,&#8217; But The Tesla CEO Has Touted An &#8216;Ancient PC Laptop&#8217; With A Dogecoin Sticker More Than Once</a>



Afshar&#8217;s abrupt departure is likely to raise eyebrows, especially following his June 23 social media post praising Musk&#8217;s robotaxi push in Austin.



&#8220;Thank you, Elon, for pushing us all!&#8221; Afshar <a target="_blank" href="https://x.com/omead/status/1937194919082230037" rel="noreferrer noopener">wrote</a> on X, formerly Twitter.



Meanwhile, a Forbes <a target="_blank" href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/alanohnsman/2025/06/26/elon-musk-has-fired-one-of-his-top-tesla-lieutenants/" rel="noreferrer noopener">report </a>claims Musk himself fired Afshar amid slumping sales in both regions and the brand&#8217;s waning popularity.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Sales Drop Adds Pressure</h2>



Tesla&#8217;s new vehicle<a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/movers/25/06/46100260/tesla-stock-is-sliding-wednesday-whats-going-on-3" rel="noreferrer noopener"> sales fell 27.9% year-over-year in Europe</a> last month, despite the broader electric vehicle segment growing by 27.2% in the region, according to Reuters, citing data from the European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA).



The company&#8217;s latest Model Y update has yet to reverse the downward trend for Tesla that started when buyers began protesting Musk&#8217;s&nbsp;political involvement.



According to&nbsp;<a target="_blank" href="https://pro.benzinga.com/?gspk=YWRhbWVja2VydDUzMzY&amp;gsxid=zBMR4PKmcgBw" rel="noreferrer noopener">Benzinga Pro</a>, TSLA stock has gained over 66% in the past year. Investors can gain exposure to the stock via&nbsp;Simplify Volt TSLA Revolution ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TESL#NYSE">TESL</a>).



Other notable recent Tesla departures include Milan Kovac, former head of engineering for the Optimus humanoid robot project, and Jenna Ferrua, who is listed on LinkedIn as Tesla&#8217;s HR director for North America, Bloomberg adds.



Tech Crunch <a target="_blank" href="https://techcrunch.com/2025/06/26/elon-musk-reportedly-fires-teslas-top-sales-exec/" rel="noreferrer noopener">reports </a>that Afshar entered the company in 2017 and was a part of the &#8220;office of the CEO.&#8221; In 2022, he came under internal scrutiny for allegedly being linked to a plan to buy specialized materials for a glass structure reportedly envisioned by Musk, Tech Crunch adds.



The matter later drew investigations from both the Department of Justice and the SEC in 2023.



Afshar&#8217;s rumored departure also coincides with broader EV industry turbulence, as Rivian Automotive, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/RIVN#NASDAQ">RIVN</a>) recently cut around 140 jobs amid cost pressures.



Rivian&#8217;s layoffs, largely targeting the firm&#8217;s manufacturing team, began Wednesday, with some roles cut over &#8220;process inefficiencies,&#8221; former employees <a target="_blank" href="https://techcrunch.com/2025/06/26/rivian-cuts-dozens-on-manufacturing-team-ahead-of-r2-launch/" rel="noreferrer noopener">told </a>Tech Crunch.



Price Action: TSLA shares are trading lower by 0.27% to $326.68&nbsp;at last check Thursday.



Read Next:



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/06/46121729/nio-plots-hong-kong-entry-with-new-game-plan-to-challenge-tesla" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">NIO Plots Hong Kong Entry With New Game Plan To Challenge Tesla</a></li>
</ul>



Photo Courtesy Frederic Legrand &#8211; COMEO Via Shutterstock

Equities

Markets

General

RIVN

TESL

TSLA

'Thank You, Elon:' Musk's Longtime Aide Reportedly Fired Days After Public Praise

Markets have continued to grind upward despite the short-lived Israel-Iran war, the <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/personal-finance/management/25/06/46011739/jerome-powell-led-fed-has-left-interest-rate-unchanged-what-does-it-mean-for-savings-mortgages-credit-cards-and-your-bank-account">Fed&#8217;s pause</a> on interest rate cuts and what feels like seemingly bearish headlines every day.



With stocks determined to keep climbing, albeit slowly, I looked for a company that will have strength going forward, and landed on semiconductor giant Micron Technology Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MU#NASDAQ">MU</a>).



With the chip and AI rally showing no signs of slowing down, <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-stock-ratings/analyst-color/25/06/46121658/micron-impresses-wall-street-with-strong-q3-earnings-continued-strength-in-ai-data-center">Micron</a> seems set to benefit. At the same time, the stock has not been rising as astronomically fast as some other chip competitors, at least not yet.



That&#8217;s a very good thing for the trade I have in mind today.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">How The Pros Are Trading Strength Into Q3 — Live Tuesday</h2>



Most traders chase headlines. The pros focus on trends that last. This Tuesday at 6 PM ET, see how Tim Melvin, Ryan Faloona, and Anne-Marie Baiynd are using market strength, momentum signals, and long-term setups to stay ahead of the next big move. Their tactics are precise and built for this market. Register <a href="https://benzinga.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_OJ2FBspHSJSSVNlW8zGapw/?">HERE</a> while limited seats are still available.



Here&#8217;s a simple trade to help boost your returns on Micron.



The trade I have in mind is a leap covered call. A leap is an options position that expires well into the future, usually after one year or more. For us today, we&#8217;ll be using options that expire in June 2026.



A covered call, meanwhile, involves owning the underlying stock (Micron, in this case) while at the same time selling calls on that stock to collect premiums.



The selling of the call option well into the future allows the trader to hold the stock at a discount and if the stock continues to rise, the call option can be covered and a new option opened against the stock (commonly called rolling the strike) to continue to both hold the stock and collect more revenue as time moves forward and the stock continues to climb.



If the stock fades, we have a solid cushion of profit the short call provides.&nbsp;



As I&#8217;m writing this, Micron&#8217;s relative resistance zone is around $157, while support sits near $95. Because of that, here&#8217;s how I&#8217;m structuring this Micron covered call:



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Buy 100 shares of MU – price at this writing is $127.25 per share</li>



<li>Sell to Open 1 MU 18 Jun 2026 130 calls – currently priced at $24.50 </li>
</ul>



The breakeven prices of the stock at expiration on this trade is calculated by subtracting the credit received against the cost of the stock = $12,725 &#8211; $2,450 =$10,275, less commissions. This implies the actual cost of each share would be reduced to $102.75, a 20% discount.&nbsp;



The possible ways to leave the trade are:



<ol class="wp-block-list">
<li>Hold the stock and the option until expiration of June, 2026. If the price of the stock is above $130, the trader will relinquish the stock at $130 collecting the difference between the actual cost of the shares ($102.75 and the $130 strike price = $130 -$102.75 = $27.25 less commissions or 26 % return). </li>



<li>Set an alert for $102.75 – the breakeven price. Sell the entire position if your risk thresholds are breached. </li>
</ol>



A trader who is bullish on Micron might say that you should sell the calls much further out of the money &#8211; that is, with a much higher strike price. That&#8217;s true, but if the market has any significant retracements, selling the strike at the money provides a tidy cushion of support while still buying the stock for potential upside.



Editorial content from our expert contributors is intended to be information for the general public and not individualized investment advice. Editors/contributors are presenting their individual opinions and strategies, which are neither expressly nor impliedly approved or endorsed by Benzinga.



Photo: Shutterstock

Opinion

This Week's Best Chip Stock Trade: Micron Technology

Nike Inc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NKE#NYSE">NKE</a>) reported fourth-quarter financial results for fiscal 2025 Thursday after the market close. Here&#8217;s a rundown of the athletic footwear and <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/pressreleases/25/06/b46127659/nike-inc-reports-fiscal-2025-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-results">apparel company&#8217;s report</a>.



Q4 Earnings: Nike reported fourth-quarter revenue of $11.1 billion, beating analyst&nbsp;<a href="http://benzinga.com/quote/nke/earnings" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">estimates</a>&nbsp;of $10.72 billion. The company&nbsp;reported fourth-quarter earnings of 14 cents per share, beating analyst estimates of 11 cents per share, according to <a href="http://pro.benzinga.com/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Benzinga Pro</a>.



Total revenue was down 12% year-over-year in the quarter. Nike Direct revenues were $4.4 billion in the quarter, down 14% year-over-year. Nike Brand revenues totaled $10.8 billion, down 11%, and Wholesale revenues fell 9% to $6.4 billion.



Here's a breakdown of sales by region:



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>North America:&nbsp;down 11%</li>



<li>Greater China:&nbsp;down 21%</li>



<li>Europe, Middle East &amp; Africa:&nbsp;down 9%</li>



<li>Asia Pacific and Latin America:&nbsp;down 8%</li>
</ul>



Inventories were $7.5 billion at the end of the fourth quarter, flat compared to the prior year. Nike ended the period with $9.2 billion in cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments.



&#8220;While our financial results are in-line with our expectations, they are not where we want them to be. Moving forward, we expect our business to improve as a result of the progress we&#8217;re making through our Win Now actions,&#8221; said&nbsp;Elliott Hill, president and CEO of Nike.



&#8220;As we enter a new fiscal year, we are turning the page and the next step is aligning our teams to lead with sport through what we are calling the sport offense. This will accelerate our Win Now actions to reposition our business for future growth.&#8221;



Nike said it returned $591 million to shareholders in the form of dividends and repurchased $202 million of its common stock in the quarter. 



Nike CFO Matthew Friend said the company expects headwinds to moderate moving forward. 



Nike is expected to provide forward guidance on its earnings call with investors and analysts, which is scheduled to start at 5 p.m. ET.



NKE Price Action: <a href="http://benzinga.com/quote/nke" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Nike shares</a> were bouncing around following the report, last down 1.07% in after-hours at $61.87 at the time of publication Thursday, according to <a href="http://pro.benzinga.com/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Benzinga Pro</a>.



Read Next:



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/economic-data/25/06/46124290/sp-500-hits-record-highs-and-history-says-the-best-is-yet-to-come">S&amp;P 500 Trades At Record Highs—And History Says The Best Is Yet To Come</a></li>



<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/dividends/25/06/46113250/how-to-earn-500-a-month-from-nike-stock-ahead-of-q4-earnings-2">How To Earn $500 A Month From Nike Stock</a></li>
</ul>



Photo: Roman Zaiets/Shutterstock.com

Earnings

Sports

Global

Nike Q4 Earnings: Revenue Beat, EPS Beat, Headwinds Expected To Moderate Moving Forward, Company Playing 'Sport Offense'

Editor's Note: This story has been updated to reflect that the S&amp;P 500 surpassed its previous closing high during intraday trading.



The S&amp;P 500 pushed into record territory on Thursday, topping its previous all-time closing high from February 19, as the U.S. stock market <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets">continued its rebound.</a>



That's a major comeback considering how things looked just a few months ago.



On April 7, stocks were in a state of panic. Fears over Trump&#8217;s tariffs and a potential recession sparked a steep selloff, with the S&amp;P tumbling 21% from its February highs.



However, since then, the market has rebounded by a stunning 27%, driven by easing trade tensions, stronger-than-expected corporate earnings, and receding recession fears.



Now, investors are turning their attention to what comes next, and if history is any guide, the rally may just be getting started.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">A Golden Cross Is Coming: Why It Matters</h2>



The S&amp;P 500 – as tracked by the Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VOO#NYSE">VOO</a>) – is close to flashing what traders call a golden cross. 



That's when the 50-day moving average rises above the 200-day moving average—a sign that momentum is picking up and a new leg higher could be underway.



While it may sound like a niche signal, the golden cross has proven to be a historically reliable indicator of bull markets.



Since World War II, the golden cross signal has appeared 37 times on the S&amp;P 500, and nearly three out of four times, it has led to gains.



A simple strategy of buying the index at the golden cross and selling at the following death cross – when the 50-day crosses below the 200-day average – would have shown: 



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Average gain per trade: +14.7%</li>



<li>Winning ratio: 73% (27 out of 37 trades ended in profit)</li>



<li>Average trade duration: 565 days</li>
</ul>



The strongest signal on record occurred in 1994, resulting in a remarkable 120.9% gain over a four-year period.



And looking at more recent history—since 1995—the results still shine.



On average, each trade delivered a 15.5% total return, and 10 out of 13 trades were profitable, for a win rate of 77%.



The strongest performance occurred during the 2012–2015 period, with a 51.4% gain, while the briefest and worst-performing signal resulted in a 4.7% loss over just 21 days in early 2016.



Most recently, the 2023–2025 golden-cross trade posted a solid 30.8% gain.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Golden Cross Strategy On The S&amp;P 500</h3>



<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"><table class="has-fixed-layout"><thead><tr><th>Date Entry</th><th>Date Exit</th><th>Length (Days)</th><th>S&amp;P 500 Price at Buy</th><th>S&amp;P 500 Price at Sell</th><th>Performance</th><th>Annualized Gain</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>1998-12-09</td><td>1999-11-05</td><td>331</td><td>1,181.38</td><td>1,363.55</td><td>+15.42%</td><td>+17.28%</td></tr><tr><td>1999-11-12</td><td>2000-10-31</td><td>355</td><td>1,383.04</td><td>1,401.18</td><td>+1.31%</td><td>+1.34%</td></tr><tr><td>2003-05-15</td><td>2004-08-19</td><td>462</td><td>940.47</td><td>1,094.99</td><td>+16.43%</td><td>+12.51%</td></tr><tr><td>2004-11-08</td><td>2006-07-20</td><td>619</td><td>1,166.17</td><td>1,260.21</td><td>+8.06%</td><td>+4.65%</td></tr><tr><td>2006-09-13</td><td>2007-12-24</td><td>467</td><td>1,312.33</td><td>1,484.55</td><td>+13.12%</td><td>+9.70%</td></tr><tr><td>2009-06-24</td><td>2010-07-06</td><td>377</td><td>896.31</td><td>1,028.09</td><td>+14.70%</td><td>+13.89%</td></tr><tr><td>2010-10-25</td><td>2011-08-15</td><td>294</td><td>1,184.74</td><td>1,178.86</td><td>-0.50%</td><td>-0.62%</td></tr><tr><td>2012-02-01</td><td>2015-08-31</td><td>1,308</td><td>1,312.45</td><td>1,986.73</td><td>+51.38%</td><td>+13.26%</td></tr><tr><td>2015-12-22</td><td>2016-01-12</td><td>21</td><td>2,023.15</td><td>1,927.83</td><td>-4.71%</td><td>-53.92%</td></tr><tr><td>2016-04-26</td><td>2018-12-10</td><td>958</td><td>2,089.84</td><td>2,630.86</td><td>+25.89%</td><td>+9.39%</td></tr><tr><td>2019-04-02</td><td>2020-03-31</td><td>364</td><td>2,868.24</td><td>2,614.69</td><td>-8.84%</td><td>-8.84%</td></tr><tr><td>2020-07-10</td><td>2022-03-15</td><td>613</td><td>3,152.47</td><td>4,188.82</td><td>+32.87%</td><td>+17.38%</td></tr><tr><td>2023-02-03</td><td>2025-04-15</td><td>802</td><td>4,136.69</td><td>5,411.99</td><td>+30.83%</td><td>+13.13%</td></tr></tbody><tfoot><tr><td></td><td>Average</td><td>578</td><td></td><td></td><td>+15.5%</td><td>+6.9%</td></tr></tfoot></table><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Data: TradingView</figcaption></figure>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Will Seasonality Boost US Stocks In July?</h2>



Beyond technicals, calendar gains may also help. Seasonal trends show that late June through the end of July has historically been a strong period for the S&amp;P 500.



Analyzing the S&amp;P 500's performance between June 26 and July 31 – or the nearest trading days – over the past 15 years, Seasonax data reveals an average return of +3.46% during this period, with 14 out of 15 years finishing in the green.



The strongest July stretch came in 2016, when the index gained 8.51%. The only loss occurred in 2014, with a modest decline of 1.36%.



In fact, if you had bought the index around June 26 and held it through July 31 for the last 15 years, you would have made money 14 times out of 15.



The average return during that window? 3.46%.



In 2016 and 2020, the index jumped more than 8%. The only time it dropped was in 2014, and even then, the decline was only 1.36%. Most years didn't see big pullbacks either, meaning the risk has been relatively low during this midsummer stretch.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">S&amp;P 500 Enters Strong Seasonal Window: More Gains To Come?</h3>



<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"><table class="has-fixed-layout"><thead><tr><th>Start Date</th><th>End Date</th><th>S&amp;P 500 Start Price</th><th>S&amp;P 500 End Price</th><th>Profit (Pts)</th><th>% Gain</th><th>Max Rise</th><th>Max Drawdown</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>28 Jun 2010</td><td>02 Aug 2010</td><td>1,074.57</td><td>1,125.86</td><td>+51.29</td><td>+4.77%</td><td>+4.77%</td><td>-4.84%</td></tr><tr><td>27 Jun 2011</td><td>01 Aug 2011</td><td>1,280.10</td><td>1,286.94</td><td>+6.84</td><td>+0.53%</td><td>+5.71%</td><td>0.00%</td></tr><tr><td>26 Jun 2012</td><td>31 Jul 2012</td><td>1,319.99</td><td>1,379.32</td><td>+59.33</td><td>+4.49%</td><td>+5.00%</td><td>0.00%</td></tr><tr><td>26 Jun 2013</td><td>31 Jul 2013</td><td>1,603.26</td><td>1,685.73</td><td>+82.47</td><td>+5.14%</td><td>+5.76%</td><td>0.00%</td></tr><tr><td>26 Jun 2014</td><td>31 Jul 2014</td><td>1,957.22</td><td>1,930.67</td><td>-26.55</td><td>-1.36%</td><td>+1.57%</td><td>-1.36%</td></tr><tr><td>26 Jun 2015</td><td>31 Jul 2015</td><td>2,101.49</td><td>2,103.84</td><td>+2.35</td><td>+0.11%</td><td>+1.27%</td><td>-2.61%</td></tr><tr><td>27 Jun 2016</td><td>01 Aug 2016</td><td>2,000.54</td><td>2,170.84</td><td>+170.30</td><td>+8.51%</td><td>+8.72%</td><td>0.00%</td></tr><tr><td>26 Jun 2017</td><td>31 Jul 2017</td><td>2,439.07</td><td>2,470.30</td><td>+31.23</td><td>+1.28%</td><td>+1.59%</td><td>-1.20%</td></tr><tr><td>26 Jun 2018</td><td>31 Jul 2018</td><td>2,723.06</td><td>2,816.29</td><td>+93.23</td><td>+3.42%</td><td>+4.52%</td><td>-0.86%</td></tr><tr><td>26 Jun 2019</td><td>31 Jul 2019</td><td>2,913.78</td><td>2,980.38</td><td>+66.60</td><td>+2.29%</td><td>+3.85%</td><td>0.00%</td></tr><tr><td>26 Jun 2020</td><td>31 Jul 2020</td><td>3,009.05</td><td>3,271.12</td><td>+262.07</td><td>+8.71%</td><td>+8.87%</td><td>0.00%</td></tr><tr><td>28 Jun 2021</td><td>02 Aug 2021</td><td>4,290.61</td><td>4,387.16</td><td>+96.55</td><td>+2.25%</td><td>+3.07%</td><td>-0.75%</td></tr><tr><td>27 Jun 2022</td><td>01 Aug 2022</td><td>3,900.11</td><td>4,118.63</td><td>+218.52</td><td>+5.60%</td><td>+5.90%</td><td>-2.94%</td></tr><tr><td>26 Jun 2023</td><td>31 Jul 2023</td><td>4,328.82</td><td>4,588.96</td><td>+260.14</td><td>+6.01%</td><td>+6.01%</td><td>0.00%</td></tr><tr><td>26 Jun 2024</td><td>31 Jul 2024</td><td>5,477.90</td><td>5,522.30</td><td>+44.40</td><td>+0.81%</td><td>+3.46%</td><td>-1.44%</td></tr></tbody></table><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Data: Seasonax</figcaption></figure>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">So, What's the Bottom Line?</h3>



The S&amp;P 500 is breaking records again. A golden cross is forming. And seasonality is in the market's favor. 



Nothing in markets is guaranteed—but history suggests the path ahead could be smoother, and maybe even profitable, for those who stay in.



Read Next:



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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/tech/25/06/46096528/nasdaq-100-record-highs-rally-historical-performance">Nasdaq 100 Hits Record Highs After 30% Rally: History Suggests It&#8217;s Not Done Yet</a></li>
</ul>



Photo: Shutterstock

Econ #s

S&P 500 Trades At Record Highs—And History Says The Best Is Yet To Come (UPDATED)

Wall Street entered full rally mode on Thursday, with the Nasdaq 100 extending its record-setting climb and the S&amp;P 500 approaching its February peak, as easing geopolitical fears and renewed hopes for a dovish Federal <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/federal-reserve">Reserve lifted investor sentiment.</a>



By midday in New York, the S&amp;P 500 was up 0.7% to 6,136, just nine points shy of its all-time high of 6,145. The Nasdaq 100 rose another 0.7% to 22,400, marking yet another intraday record.



Meanwhile, small caps surged, with the Russell 2000 jumping 1%, outperforming the broader market.



On the macro front, the first-quarter GDP was revised downward to -0.5% from the previous -0.2% figure, primarily due to a widening goods trade deficit linked to weaker exports. Yet, other data released Thursday painted a more positive picture.



Factory orders in May soared by 16.4% month-over-month to $343.6 billion, marking the biggest increase since July 2014. That followed a revised 6.6% drop in April and smashed market expectations of an 8.5% gain. Weekly jobless claims fell by 10,000 to 236,000 in the week ending June 21, while economists had forecast no change — another sign of labor market resilience.



Currency markets added fuel to the equity rally. The U.S. dollar index fell to 97, its lowest level since February 2022, as traders increasingly bet that the next Fed chair nominee — with a <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/author/piero-cingari">shortlist reportedly down to four or five names</a> — will favor a dovish stance, potentially setting the stage for deeper rate cuts in 2026.



All S&amp;P 500 sectors traded in the green, except real estate. Energy stocks outperformed, rebounding after sharp down days as crude oil prices rose 2% to $66 per barrel.



Other commodities — especially metals — also rose, fueled by dollar weakness. Silver rose 1.2%, while palladium and <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/commodities/25/06/46120819/platinum-miners-forecasts-stocks">platinum</a> spiked 6.1% and 4.3%, respectively. Copper rose 2.8% hitting a three-month high, while gold held steady at $3,330 per ounce.



Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) was unchanged at $107,220. 



<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Thursday&#8217;s Performance In Major U.S. Indices, ETFs</h1>



<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"><table class="has-fixed-layout"><tbody><tr><td>Major Indices </td><td>Price</td><td>% Chg</td></tr><tr><td>• Russell 2000</td><td>2,158.05</td><td>+1.0%</td></tr><tr><td>• Dow Jones</td><td>43,355.44</td><td>+0.9%</td></tr><tr><td>• Nasdaq 100</td><td>22,403.44</td><td>+0.7%</td></tr><tr><td>• S&amp;P 500</td><td>6,136.45</td><td>+0.7%</td></tr></tbody></table><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Updated at 1:00 p.m. ET</figcaption></figure>



According to&nbsp;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/pro/?utm_source=BZprocontent&amp;t=be2bearmibe3na1">Benzinga Pro</a>&nbsp;data:



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>The Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VOO#NYSE">VOO</a>) rose 0.66% to $563.41.</li>



<li>The&nbsp;SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DIA#NYSE">DIA</a>) rose 0.8% to $433.26.</li>



<li>The tech-heavy&nbsp;Invesco QQQ Trust Series&nbsp;(NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>)&nbsp;soared 0.7% to $544.72.</li>



<li>The&nbsp;iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IWM#NYSE">IWM</a>) rallied 1% to $214.05.</li>



<li>The&nbsp;Energy&nbsp;Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLE#NYSE">XLE</a>) outperformed, up 1.5%; the&nbsp;Real Estate&nbsp;Select Sector SPDR Fund&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLRE#NYSE">XLRE</a>) lagged, down 0.8%.</li>
</ul>



<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Thursday&#8217;s Stock Movers</h1>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>) surged past $155 per share to hit record highs, becoming the world's most valuable company at $3.8 trillion.</li>



<li>Micron Technology Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MU#NASDAQ">MU</a>) slipped 1.1%, even after delivering <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-stock-ratings/analyst-color/25/06/46121658/micron-impresses-wall-street-with-strong-q3-earnings-continued-strength-in-ai-data-center">stronger-than-expected quarterly earnings</a>.</li>



<li>Other stocks reacting to earnings included Acuity Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AYI#NYSE">AYI</a>), up 7.1%; McCormick Company Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MKC#NYSE">MKC</a>), up 5.2% and Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/WBA#NASDAQ">WBA</a>), up 0.8%.</li>



<li>Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FCX#NYSE">FCX</a>) jumped 8%, lifted by rising metal prices, with industry peers Southern Copper Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SCCO#NYSE">SCCO</a>), Albemarle Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ALB#NYSE">ALB</a>), and Alcoa Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AA#NYSE">AA</a>) all rallying between 7% and 8%.</li>



<li>Equinix Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EQIX#NASDAQ">EQIX</a>) sank 8% after unveiling a long-term growth outlook that underwhelmed investors.</li>



<li>Nike Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NKE#NYSE">NKE</a>) will report earnings after the close. </li>
</ul>



Read Now:



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/commodities/25/06/46120819/platinum-miners-forecasts-stocks">Platinum&#8217;s Biggest Rally In 40 Years: These 6 Mining Stocks Could Be Top Gainers </a></li>
</ul>



Photo: Shutterstock

Cryptocurrency

Large Cap

Broad U.S. Equity ETFs

Commodities

ETFs

$BTC

EQIX

SCCO

XLRE

Stocks Rally To New Highs, Dollar Tumbles To 40-Month Lows: What's Driving Markets Thursday?

President Donald Trump's shortlist for the next Federal Reserve chair is heating up, fueling bets on deep rate cuts, pressuring the dollar and reigniting concerns over the <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/federal-reserve">Fed's long-guarded independence.</a>



According to a Wall Street Journal <a href="https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/trump-next-federal-reserve-chair-powell-d3edcb9c?mod=hp_lead_pos1">report</a>, Trump is considering the following names to replace Jerome Powell, whose term officially ends in May 2026:



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Kevin Warsh: Former Federal Reserve governor between 2006 and 2011 and current Hoover Institution fellow. Warsh is known for advocating tight policy during the Great Recession, but more recently signaled openness to looser monetary conditions.</li>



<li>Christopher Waller: Sitting Fed governor since 2020. Although appointed by Trump, Waller has generally aligned with Powell's policy, although some consider him more accommodating on inflation risks. Last week, Waller indicated that the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates as early as July, departing from the current wait-and-see approach by Powell.</li>



<li>Scott Bessent: Currently Trump's Treasury Secretary and former chief investment officer at Soros Fund Management. Has limited central banking experience, but is seen as loyal to Trump.</li>



<li>Kevin Hassett: Former Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers under Trump, with strong academic credentials and vocal support for pro-growth, low-rate policies.</li>



<li>David Malpass, served as President of the World Bank from 2019 to 2023. Prior to that, he held senior economic roles under Presidents Ronald Reagan and George H. W. Bush. He later served as Under Secretary of the Treasury for International Affairs during Trump's first term.</li>
</ul>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Who Will Replace Fed Chair Jerome Powell? Betting Markets Weigh In</h2>



CFTC-regulated prediction market Kalshi shows the race remains tight, with no clear front-runner emerging. 



As of Thursday, both Warsh and Waller are tied with 28% odds each, followed by Bessent at 18% and Hassett trailing at 10%.



A $100 bet on Warsh would return $295 if he&#8217;s nominated, while the same wager on Waller would yield $334. For those backing Bessent, the return jumps to $556, and a longshot bet on Hassett would pay $1,000. 



<iframe loading="lazy" src="https://kalshi.com/external-widgets/events/KXFEDCHAIRNOM-29?color_scheme=light&#038;widget_size=medium&#038;variant=a&#038;ids=KXFEDCHAIRNOM-29-KW&#038;ids=KXFEDCHAIRNOM-29-CWAL&#038;ids=KXFEDCHAIRNOM-29-SBES&#038;utm_campaign=benzinga_widget" width="488px" height="196px" style="border:0"></iframe>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Is A &#8220;Shadow Chairman&#8221; Looming?</h3>



Though Powell's term ends in mid-2026, markets are already pricing in a "shadow chairman" effect, according to BBVA analysts, who view the early emergence of a dovish successor as influential.



David Morrison of Trade Nation said, "It is understood that Mr Trump's preferred choices for the role will all be significantly dovish."



That sentiment reflects Trump's repeated criticisms of Powell's high-rate stance. In June, the Fed held interest rates steady at 4.25%–4.50% for a fourth consecutive meeting, prompting renewed ire from the president.



Speaking about Powell at the NATO summit on Wednesday, Trump said, "He goes out pretty soon, fortunately, because I think he's terrible."



Trump added that current rates are inflating the U.S. interest bill and said that a 2-percentage-point rate cut could save the government up to $800 billion annually in debt servicing.



He called Powell "a very political guy," continuing a long feud. 



Lawrence Gillum, chief fixed income strategist at LPL Financial, said, "We think the Fed will cut rates this year and maybe a few times in 2026, but to get a meaningful reduction in U.S. interest expenses, the Fed would likely need to revisit the zero interest rate policies of the pre-COVID-19 years, which is unlikely to happen anytime soon."



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Dollar Weakness Likely To Extend</h3>



The dollar has emerged as the first casualty of Fed speculation. The U.S. Dollar Index – tracked by the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>) – dropped Thursday to levels last seen in March 2022, and is down 10% since Trump's inauguration in January.



The euro-dollar pair surged past 1.17, its highest since 2021, while the dollar-franc exchange rate dropped below 0.80, levels not seen since the 2015 Swiss franc peg crisis. 



"Powell's successor as Fed chair has shifted market attention back to the longer-term path for Fed policy, and for Fed independence more broadly," Goldman Sachs said in a note Thursday. 



Markets are increasingly pricing in the possibility that Trump's pick will push for faster and deeper rate cuts. 



Fed funds futures now imply two cuts by the end of 2025, followed by three to four additional cuts in 2026—a significantly more accommodative path than what the Federal Reserve itself projected in its June dot plot, which showed a median expectation of just two cuts next year.



This growing divergence suggests investors are anticipating a clear policy shift under new leadership, even before Powell officially departs.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="528" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/26090101/image-409-1024x528.png" alt="" class="wp-image-963258" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/26090101/image-409-1024x528.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/26090101/image-409-300x155.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/26090101/image-409-768x396.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/26090101/image-409-1536x792.png 1536w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/26090101/image-409-2048x1056.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>



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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/macro-economic-events/25/06/46113383/us-china-trade-deal-could-be-finalized-next-week-says-harvard-scholar-they-are-going-to-stabilize-this">US-China Trade Deal Could Be Finalized Next Week, Says Harvard Scholar: &#8216;They Are Going To Stabilize This&#8217; </a></li>
</ul>



Photo: Shutterstock

Analyst Color

Government

Macro Economic Events

Currency ETFs

Economics

Federal Reserve

Analyst Ratings

Trump's Fed Chairman Shortlist Is In: What Investors Need To Know

Renewable energy developer Invenergy and tech giant Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>) announced a significant expansion of their <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/pressreleases/25/06/n46112463/invenergy-to-provide-meta-with-nearly-800-mw-supporting-data-center-operations">clean energy collaboration</a> on Thursday, with four new agreements totaling an additional 791 megawatts (MW) of procured solar and wind energy.



The agreements will provide near-term energy to support Meta&#8217;s operations, data center growth, and clean energy&nbsp;goals.



This latest set of agreements builds upon a previously announced partnership from 2024, which already saw Invenergy providing Meta with 1,000 MW of renewable energy.



Also Read: <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/01/43032486/meta-boosts-green-energy-with-new-solar-deal-supporting-ai-data-center-growth" rel="noreferrer noopener">Meta Boosts Green Energy With New Solar Deal, Supports AI Data Center Growth</a>



Together, these projects bring the companies&#8217; partnership to 1,800 MW, including over 740 MW of new energy generation in&nbsp;Ohio.



The electricity from these projects will be delivered to the local grid, while Meta will receive the clean energy credits associated with the new generation capacity coming online.



These four agreements leverage Invenergy&#8217;s expertise across a diverse portfolio of strategically located clean energy facilities in the U.S.



These include the Yellow Wood Solar Energy Center (300 MW) and the Pleasant Prairie Solar Energy Center (140 MW), both in Ohio and anticipated to commence commercial operations in 2027.



Also part of the deal is the Decoy Solar Energy Center (155 MW) in Arkansas, slated for commercial operations in the same year. Rounding out the quartet is the Seaway Wind Energy Center (196 MW) in Texas, projected to come online in 2028.



The move marks Big Tech&#8217;s prioritization of renewable energy to reduce its carbon footprint and costs and improve sustainability as a large consumer of energy, particularly for data centers.



Beyond solar and wind, Meta is also exploring other innovative energy solutions. In December, Meta <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/tech/24/12/42321266/meta-joins-big-techs-shift-to-nuclear-power-for-ai-ambitions" rel="noreferrer noopener">announced plans to</a> seek proposals from nuclear energy developers to accomplish its artificial intelligence innovation&nbsp;and sustainability goals.



It targeted 1-4 gigawatts of new nuclear generation capacity in the U.S. starting in the early 2030s. Meta said it expects nuclear energy to support the growth needs of the electric grids that power its data centers and the communities around them.



Price Action: META stock was up 0.41% at $711.22 at last check Thursday.



Read Next:



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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/large-cap/25/06/45748439/constellation-energy-signs-20-year-nuclear-power-deal-with-meta-stock-surges" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Constellation Energy Signs 20-Year Nuclear Power Deal With Meta, Stock Surges</a></li>
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Photo by Skorzewiak via Shutterstock

Meta Secures More Clean Energy For Power Hungry AI And Data Center Growth

Retail spending on non-essential goods in the U.S. has slumped by 4% in early 2025, a stark reminder of the 2008 financial crisis, according to economist Craig Shapiro.



What Happened: The macro strategist at Bear Traps Report, Shapiro, links this downturn to growing consumer panic over artificial intelligence-driven job losses, drawing parallels to the economic uncertainty that gripped the world over a decade ago during the Global Financial Crisis.



&#8220;The National Retail Federation noted a 4% decline in non-essential retail sales, blaming AI-related job fears. This mirrors the 2008 crisis and threatens industries like hospitality and retail, potentially triggering further layoffs and a downward economic spiral,&#8221; said Shapiro in a Substack post.



He highlighted the Bureau of Economic Analysis data, reporting a 3.5% drop in luxury spending in the first quarter of 2025, which contrasted with a 1.8% rise in necessities.



"Consumers are saving more, spending less, and it's a vicious cycle," Shapiro warns.



Additionally, his analysis points to AI's rapid encroachment into white-collar sectors, with tech giants like Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>) and Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>) investing billions in automation.



See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/economic-data/25/06/46093421/ai-will-disrupt-25-of-us-jobs-by-2030-and-the-fed-cant-save-them-economist-warns">AI Will Disrupt 25% Of US Jobs By 2030—And The Fed Can&#8217;t Save Them, Economist Warns</a>



Why It Matters: Apart from this, on a monthly basis, the U.S. consumers exhibited <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/economic-data/25/06/45971228/retail-sales-slump-more-than-expected-as-tariff-fears-hit-spending">signs of pressure in May</a>, with a critical spending indicator shrinking for the second time this year, heightening worries about a potential demand slowdown driven by tariff-related trade uncertainties.



Headline retail sales plummeted by 0.9% month-over-month in May 2025, a significant decline from April's revised 0.1% drop, according to the U.S. Census Bureau's Tuesday report. The figure fell short of economists' already pessimistic expectations of a 0.7% decrease.



Shapiro also argues that Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, like the recent 25-basis-point reduction, are <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/economic-data/25/06/46093421/ai-will-disrupt-25-of-us-jobs-by-2030-and-the-fed-cant-save-them-economist-warns">powerless against this structural shift</a>. 



Shapiro advocates for urgent measures like retraining programs and universal basic income pilots, citing Finland's 2017-2018 experiment. As AI panic echoes 2008, he cautions that without bold action, the retail slump could signal a broader economic unraveling.



Price Action: The SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>), which track the S&amp;P 500 index and Nasdaq 100 index, respectively, were higher in premarket on Thursday. The SPY was up 0.34% at $609.18, while the QQQ advanced 0.46% to $543.64, according to <a href="https://pro.benzinga.com/dashboard">Benzinga Pro</a> data.



Read Next:



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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/macro-economic-events/25/06/46112471/ross-gerber-touts-an-idea-to-cut-deficit-by-trillions-of-dollars-let-the-tax-cuts-expire-and-full-salt-come-back">Ross Gerber Touts An Idea To Cut Deficit By Trillions Of Dollars: &#8216;Let The Tax Cuts Expire And Full SALT Come Back&#8217;</a></li>
</ul>



Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors. 



Image Via shutterstock



<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/macro-economic-events/25/06/46112471/ross-gerber-touts-an-idea-to-cut-deficit-by-trillions-of-dollars-let-the-tax-cuts-expire-and-full-salt-come-back"> </a>

AMZN

MSFT

AI Panic Feels Like 2008 Global Financial Crisis All Over Again, Shapiro Says As Retail Sales Plunge 4%

A Harvard scholar has suggested that the United States and China are on the verge of finalizing a trade deal, with the potential for an&nbsp;agreement as soon as next&nbsp;week.



What Happened:  Graham Allison, the founding dean of Harvard University&#8216;s John F. Kennedy School of Government and a former U.S. official, hinted at the possibility of a trade deal between the U.S. and China. He made these remarks at a World Economic Forum (WEF) meeting in Tianjin on Thursday, <a href="https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3315914/us-china-trade-deal-near-harvard-scholar-hints-progress-very-intense-talks?module=top_story&amp;pgtype=homepage">reported</a> the South China Morning Post.



Allison stated, &nbsp;&#8220;I&nbsp;would be surprised if in&nbsp;the next week or so&nbsp;we do not see an&nbsp;MOU (memorandum of understanding) coming&nbsp;out of the discussions that&nbsp;have been going on between&nbsp;Bessent and He and their&nbsp;teams in the intermediate period,&#8221; referring to U.S. Treasury Secretary&nbsp;Scott Bessent&nbsp;and China's Vice-Premier&nbsp;He Lifeng, who are leading the trade talks.



Allison shared his perspective on the trade talks following a recent meeting with China's top diplomat, Wang Yi, who voiced optimism about achieving peaceful coexistence between the two countries.



"These are business problems that serious businesspeople know how to solve. And I'm thinking they are going to stabilize this, I believe. But we'll see,"&nbsp;stated Allison



SEE ALSO:&nbsp;<a href="https://benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/06/46107333/nvidia-micron-technology-super-micro-computer-bp-and-tesla-why-these-5-stocks-are-on-investors-r" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Nvidia, Micron Technology, Super Micro Computer, BP And Tesla: Why These 5 Stocks Are On Investors&#8217; Radars Today</a>



Why It Matters: The ongoing trade war between the US and China has had significant impacts on both economies. U.S.-listed Chinese stocks such as&nbsp;Alibaba Group Holding (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BABA#NYSE">BABA</a>),&nbsp;Baidu, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BIDU#NASDAQ">BIDU</a>), and&nbsp;JD.Com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/JD#NASDAQ">JD</a>)&nbsp;rallied after experiencing a downturn earlier this month following President Donald Trump&#8217;s confirmation of a framework finalization for China trade deal.



Furthermore, the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration have led to a <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/macro-economic-events/25/06/46111863/toy-prices-see-unprecedented-surge-as-trump-tariffs-take-a-toll-theres-just-no-escaping-china">surge in toy prices</a> in the U.S. The price of games and playground equipment saw a record 2.2% increase between April and May 2025, a rate significantly higher than the overall inflation rate, as close to 75% sellers in the U.S. import toys from China 



The potential trade agreement could alleviate these economic pressures, marking a significant step towards economic stability for both nations.



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>READ MORE: <a href="https://benzinga.com/markets/tech/25/06/46087590/trumps-made-in-america-phone-plan-is-backed-by-a-little-known-network-based-in-his-miami-condo-whose" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Trump&#8217;s &#8216;Made in America&#8217; Phone Plan Is Backed By A Little-Known Network Based In His Miami Condo, Whose Website Still Says &#8216;What Is Lorem Ipsum?&#8217;</a></li>
</ul>



Image via Shutterstock



Disclaimer:&nbsp;This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.

BABA

BIDU

US-China Trade Deal Could Be Finalized Next Week, Says Harvard Scholar: 'They Are Going To Stabilize This'

President Donald Trump&#8216;s fiscal 2026 defense budget request signals a strategic pivot toward advanced missile systems and unmanned warfare capabilities while scaling back traditional fighter jet procurement, potentially reshaping revenue streams for major defense contractors.



What Happened: The $892.6 billion defense and national security budget, flat compared to fiscal 2025, cuts F-35 Lightning II orders to 47 units from the 68 requested in former President Joe Biden&#8216;s final budget proposal, Reuters reported, citing budget materials released on Wednesday by the White House.



Lockheed Martin Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/LMT#NYSE">LMT</a>), the F-35&#8217;s sole manufacturer, faces reduced near-term revenue from the program despite House appropriators proposing to increase the buy to 69 aircraft.



The budget emphasizes procurement of long-range precision munitions, including the Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile Extended Range and Long Range Anti-Ship Missile, both manufactured by Lockheed Martin. These weapons systems align with Pentagon priorities for Indo-Pacific operations designed to counter Chinese military expansion.



Naval shipbuilding also faces constraints, with only three warships included in the base budget request. General Dynamics Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GD#NYSE">GD</a>) and Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/HII#NYSE">HII</a>), primary builders of Virginia-class submarines and surface vessels, will see reduced procurement volumes as the Navy eliminates 7,286 civilian positions to control costs.



See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/06/46109638/microsoft-ceo-satya-nadella-praises-palantirs-fde-model-as-fantastic-insiders-say-its-not-consulting-it-builds-the-product-customers-need">Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella Praises Palantir&#8217;s FDE Model As &#8216;Fantastic&#8217;—Insiders Say It&#8217;s Not Consulting, It Builds &#8216;The Product Customers Need&#8217;</a>



Why It Matters: The budget allocates increased funding for small drone systems, reflecting lessons learned from the Ukraine conflict, where unmanned aerial vehicles proved cost-effective force multipliers. This shift <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/space/25/06/46090791/us-tests-radar-that-could-help-trumps-golden-dome-detect-missiles-over-1200-miles-report">benefits emerging defense technology</a> companies competing for Pentagon contracts alongside traditional prime contractors.



Trump&#8217;s Golden Dome missile defense initiative, estimated to cost over $175 billion, receives initial funding through a separate $150 billion defense package. The program has attracted interest from non-traditional defense players, including SpaceX, Palantir Technologies Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PLTR#NYSE">PLTR</a>), and artificial intelligence <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/space/25/06/46090791/us-tests-radar-that-could-help-trumps-golden-dome-detect-missiles-over-1200-miles-report">companies seeking to disrupt</a> the established contractor base.



The budget includes a 3.8% military pay raise while retiring aging platforms to reduce operational costs, according to the report. 



Read Next:



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</ul>



Disclaimer:&nbsp;This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.



Photo courtesy: Joey Sussman / Shutterstock.com

Politics

PLTR

Trump's Defense Budget Shifts Focus To Missiles, Drones: F-35 Orders Cut By 31%

U.S. futures rose on Thursday after a mixed close on Wednesday. Futures of major benchmark indices were trading higher.



During his testimony to Congress, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled slower growth and hotter inflation after the central bank left interest rates unchanged.



President Donald Trump, who has been pushing the Fed to cut rates, said that he could announce Powell&#8217;s successor by September, whose term ends later in May 2026, <a href="https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/trump-next-federal-reserve-chair-powell-d3edcb9c?mod=hp_lead_pos1">reported</a> the Wall Street Journal. 



The 10-year Treasury bond yielded 4.28% and the two-year bond was at 3.76%. The CME Group's FedWatch <a href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html">tool</a>&#8216;s projections show markets pricing a 75.2% likelihood of the Federal Reserve keeping the current interest rates unchanged in its July meeting.



<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"><table class="has-fixed-layout"><tbody><tr><td>Futures</td><td>Change (+/-)</td></tr><tr><td>Dow Jones</td><td>0.20%</td></tr><tr><td>S&amp;P 500</td><td>0.26%</td></tr><tr><td>Nasdaq 100</td><td>0.40%</td></tr><tr><td>Russell 2000</td><td>0.12%</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



The SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>), which track the S&amp;P 500 index and Nasdaq 100 index, respectively, were higher in premarket on Thursday. The SPY was up 0.28% at $608.84, while the QQQ advanced 0.41% to $543.36, according to <a href="https://pro.benzinga.com/dashboard">Benzinga Pro</a> data.



Cues From Last Session:



Information technology and communication services stocks bucked the overall market trend, closing higher on Wednesday, while most sectors on the S&amp;P 500 closed on a negative note, with real estate, consumer staples, and utilities recording the biggest losses.



At a NATO meeting in the Netherlands, President Trump stated that a ceasefire between Israel and Iran remains in effect, and the United States will persist in pressuring Tehran. He clarified that while sanctions are still in place, Iran is presently permitted to sell oil to China.



Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMD#NASDAQ">AMD</a>) spearheaded chipmaker gains, increasing 3.6% and reaching its highest level since early December 2024. Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>) shares also surged 4.3% on Wednesday.



On the economic front, U.S. sales of new single-family homes decreased by 13.7% from the previous month, reaching an annualized rate of 623,000 units in May. U.S. building permits declined by 2% to an annualized rate of 1.394 million in May.



The Dow Jones index ended 507 points or 0.25% lower at 42,982.43, whereas the S&amp;P 500 index fell 0.0003% to 6,092.16. Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.31% to 19,973.55, and the small-cap gauge, Russell 2000, tumbled 1.16% to end at 2,136.18.



<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"><table class="has-fixed-layout"><tbody><tr><td>Index</td><td>Performance (+/-)</td><td>Value</td></tr><tr><td>Nasdaq Composite</td><td>0.31%</td><td>19,973.55</td></tr><tr><td>S&amp;P 500</td><td>-0.00033%</td><td>6,092.16</td></tr><tr><td>Dow Jones</td><td>-0.25%</td><td>42,982.43</td></tr><tr><td>Russell 2000</td><td>-1.16%</td><td>2,136.18</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



Insights From Analysts:



Liz Ann Sonders, the chief investment strategist at Schwab, said that the Middle East remains unstable, but maybe not as unstable as it looked a few days ago, so the market shook off the fear and rose.



&#8220;There was a spike in oil and concerns over the weekend and what futures signaled Sunday night, but things aren&#8217;t as bad as expected, and we&#8217;re not seeing escalation, so markets rallied.&#8221;



Talking about international equities, Brock Weimer, an investment strategist at Edward Jones, said that &#8220;We believe the more compelling opportunity lies in U.S. equities over the next one to three years. As part of our opportunistic asset-allocation guidance, we recommend a slight underweight to international developed equities in favor of U.S. stocks.&#8221;



Meanwhile, Louis Navellier commented on Powell&#8217;s Congress testimony and said, &#8220;So, despite the fact that three other Fed members are now signaling a July key interest rate cut, Chairman Powell remains a hawk and continues to ignore favorable inflation data as well as lower Treasury yields.&#8221;



&#8220;The Fed has been anticipating an inflation &#8216;bogeyman&#8217; that has not materialized. Central banks around the world continue to cut key interest rates. Deflation is becoming increasingly common around the world, especially in China,&#8221; Navellier said.



Talking about the U.S. dollar, he said he expects the U.S. dollar to &#8220;firm up&#8221; due to;



(1) higher interest rates compared to the rest of the world, (2) stronger economic growth, and (3) military might.



&#8220;A strong U.S. dollar is also naturally deflationary, since commodities are priced in U.S. dollars,&#8221; he added.



See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/money/how-to-trade-futures">How to Trade Futures</a> 



Upcoming Economic Data



Here&#8217;s what investors will keep an eye on Thursday:



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>May&#8217;s advanced U.S. trade balance in goods, retail inventories, and wholesale inventories, along with the initial jobless claims data for the week ended June 21, will be released by 8:30 a.m. ET.</li>



<li>May&#8217;s headline and core durable-goods orders and second revision for the first quarter GDP will also be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.</li>



<li>Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack will speak at 9:00 a.m., and pending home sales for May will be out by 10:00 a.m. ET.</li>
</ul>



Stocks In Focus:



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/WBA#NASDAQ">WBA</a>) was up 0.27% in premarket on Thursday as analysts expect it to report quarterly earnings of 34 cents per share on revenue of $36.84 billion, before the opening bell.</li>



<li>Acuity Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AYI#NYSE">AYI</a>) advanced 1.35% as analysts expect it to report quarterly earnings of $4.43 per share on revenue of $1.15 billion, before the opening bell.</li>



<li>Nike Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NKE#NYSE">NKE</a>) was 0.74% higher as analysts expect it to report quarterly earnings of 13 cents per share on revenue of $10.72 billion after the closing bell.</li>



<li>McCormick &amp; Company Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MKC#NYSE">MKC</a>) rose 0.84% as analysts expect it to report quarterly earnings of 65 cents per share on revenue of $1.66 billion, before the opening bell.</li>



<li>Worthington Steel Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/WS#NYSE">WS</a>) jumped 16.15% after reporting stronger-than-expected financial results for the fourth quarter. The company reported quarterly earnings of $1.05 per share, which beat the analyst consensus estimate of 82 cents per share.</li>



<li>Micron Technology Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MU#NASDAQ">MU</a>) was up 2.18% after reporting better-than-expected financial results for the third quarter after the market closed on Wednesday. The company said it expects fourth-quarter revenue of $10.7 billion, plus or minus $300 million, versus estimates of $9.88 billion.</li>



<li>Bumble Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BMBL#NASDAQ">BMBL</a>) gained 0.61% after announcing 30% of job cuts and restructuring plans.</li>



<li>Bit Digital Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BTBT#NASDAQ">BTBT</a>) tumbled 3.83% commenced an underwritten public offering of its ordinary shares, with all shares being offered by the company.</li>
</ul>



Commodities, Gold, And Global Equity Markets:



Crude oil futures were trading higher in the early New York session by 0.15% to hover around $65.02 per barrel.



Gold Spot US Dollar rose 0.29% to hover around $3,341.87 per ounce. Its last record high stood at $3,500.33 per ounce. The U.S. Dollar Index spot was lower by 0.54% at the 97.1550 level.



Asian markets ended lower on Thursday, except Japan's Nikkei 225 and India's S&amp;P BSE Sensex indices. While Australia's ASX 200, China&#8217;s CSI 300, South Korea's Kospi and Hong Kong's Hang Seng advanced. European markets were mostly higher in early trade.



Read Next:



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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/06/46109917/billionaire-david-tepper-dumps-nvidia-slashes-magnificent-7-holdings-but-bets-big-on-these-2-ai-and-blockchain-plays">Billionaire David Tepper Dumps Nvidia, Slashes &#8216;Magnificent 7&#8217; Holdings — But Bets Big On These 2 AI And Blockchain Plays</a></li>
</ul>



Photo courtesy: godongphoto / Shutterstock.com

BMBL

BTBT

US Stocks Likely To Open Higher Despite Powell's Tariff-Induced Inflation Warning: Walgreens, Nike In Focus Ahead Of Earnings

Nippon Steel Corp. (OTC:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NPSCY#OTC">NPSCY</a>) completed its acquisition of United States Steel Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/X#NYSE">X</a>), with President Donald Trump securing unprecedented &#8220;golden share&#8221; powers that grant the U.S. government veto authority over key corporate decisions.



What Happened: The $14 billion transaction transforms U.S. Steel into a wholly owned subsidiary of Nippon Steel North America, according to U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission filings. U.S. Steel shares ceased trading on the New York Stock Exchange last week, with delisting effective June 30.



Trump&#8217;s approval came through a National Security Agreement signed June 13 between the companies and the U.S. Treasury and Commerce departments. 



The golden share mechanism gives the current president veto power over U.S. Steel&#8217;s name changes, headquarters relocation from Pittsburgh, production shifts overseas, facility closures, and material acquisitions of competing U.S. businesses.



The structure ensures future presidents will inherit these oversight powers, creating permanent government influence over the iconic steelmaker&#8217;s strategic decisions. According <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/18/us-steel-ceases-trading-on-the-nyse-as-japans-nippon-finalizes-takeover.html">to</a> CNBC, under the NSA terms, U.S. Steel&#8217;s board majority and CEO must remain U.S. citizens, while the company stays incorporated domestically.



See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/tech/25/06/46107638/mark-zuckerbergs-meta-beats-lawsuit-over-ai-training-on-books-judge-finds-no-meaningful-evidence-on-market-dilution">Mark Zuckerberg&#8217;s Meta Beats Lawsuit Over AI Training On Books, Judge Finds &#8216;No Meaningful Evidence On Market Dilution&#8217;</a>



Why It Matters: Nippon Steel committed $11 billion in U.S. investments by 2028, including $1 billion for a new greenfield facility. The companies pledged to protect over 100,000 jobs while <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/movers/25/06/45961309/us-steel-stock-soars-as-nippon-steel-partnership-gets-green-light-from-white-house">maintaining domestic production capacity</a>.



The deal reverses Biden administration opposition, which blocked the acquisition in January, citing national security concerns. Trump initially opposed the takeover during his 2024 campaign but ordered a fresh review after taking office in January.



U.S. Steel stock <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/movers/25/06/45961309/us-steel-stock-soars-as-nippon-steel-partnership-gets-green-light-from-white-house">surged 5.10% to $54.85 on approval news</a>, with trading volume exceeding 14 million shares compared to the 100-day average of 8.55 million shares. The company&#8217;s shares reached $54.97 before the trading suspension.



The transaction required <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/m-a/25/06/45960965/us-steel-stock-rallies-after-trump-approves-nippon-steel-deal">multiple regulatory clearances</a>, including the Department of Justice antitrust review. Trump simultaneously doubled steel import tariffs to 50% to protect domestic production while approving the foreign acquisition.



Read Next: 



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/25/06/46108786/fannie-and-freddie-directed-to-consider-crypto-mortgages-by-us-housing-regulator-but-michael-saylor-thinks-its-only-bitcoin-that-has-entered-the-american-dream">Fannie And Freddie Directed To Consider Crypto Mortgages By US Housing Regulator, But Michael Saylor Thinks It&#8217;s Only Bitcoin That Has &#8216;Entered The American Dream&#8217;</a></li>
</ul>



Disclaimer:&nbsp;This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.



Photo courtesy: T. Schneider / Shutterstock.com

NPSCY

Trump Gets 'Golden Share' In $14 Billion US Steel Deal, But Control Shifts To Federal Agencies Under Future Presidents

The CNN Money Fear and Greed index showed some improvement in the overall market sentiment, while the index remained in the &#8220;Greed&#8221; zone on Wednesday.



U.S. stocks settled mixed on Wednesday, with the Dow Jones index falling more than 100 points during the session.



At a NATO meeting in the Netherlands, President Donald Trump said that a ceasefire between Israel and Iran remains in place and that the United States will continue exerting pressure on Tehran. He clarified that while sanctions remain, Iran is currently allowed to sell oil to China.



Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMD#NASDAQ">AMD</a>) led chipmaker gains, rising 3.6% and reaching its highest level since early December 2024. NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>) shares jumped 4.3% on Wednesday.



On the economic front, sales of new single-family homes in the U.S. dipped by 13.7% from the previous month to an annualized rate of 623,000 units in May. U.S. building permits declined by 2% to an annualized rate of 1.394 million in May.



Most sectors on the S&amp;P 500 closed on a negative note, with real estate, consumer staples and utilities stocks recording the biggest losses on Wednesday. However, information technology and communication services stocks bucked the overall market trend, closing the session higher.



The Dow Jones closed lower by around 107 points to 42,982.43 on Wednesday. The S&amp;P 500 fell 0.02 points to 6,092.16, while the Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.31% at 19,973.55 during Wednesday's session.



Investors are awaiting earnings results from Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/WBA#NASDAQ">WBA</a>), Acuity Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AYI#NYSE">AYI</a>) and NIKE, Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NKE#NYSE">NKE</a>) today.



What is CNN Business Fear &amp; Greed Index?



At a current reading of 58.8, the index remained in the &#8220;Greed&#8221; zone on Wednesday, versus a prior reading of 57.1.



The Fear &amp; Greed Index is a measure of the current market sentiment. It is based on the premise that higher fear exerts pressure on stock prices, while higher greed has the opposite effect. The index is calculated based on seven equal-weighted indicators. The index ranges from 0 to 100, where 0 represents maximum fear and 100 signals maximum greediness.



Read Next:



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li> <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/short-ideas/25/06/46093486/top-2-utilities-stocks-that-may-fall-off-a-cliff-in-q2">Top 2 Utilities Stocks That May Fall Off A Cliff In Q2</a> </li>
</ul>



Photo courtesy: Shutterstock

Pre-Market Outlook

Nasdaq Settles Higher As Nvidia, AMD Rally: Investor Sentiment Improves, Fear Index Remains In 'Greed' Zone

Bitcoin advanced while other blue-chip cryptocurrencies moved sideways on Wednesday&nbsp;as corporations continued to accumulate the apex digital asset.



<figure class="wp-block-table"><table class="has-fixed-layout"><thead><tr><th>Cryptocurrency</th><th>Gains +/-</th><th>Price (Recorded at 10:00 p.m. ET)</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>)</td><td>+1.20%</td><td>$107,692.70</td></tr><tr><td>Ethereum (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/eth/usd">ETH</a>) &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</td><td>-0.11%</td><td>$2,457.58</td></tr><tr><td>Dogecoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/doge/usd">DOGE</a>)&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</td><td>-0.78%</td><td>$0.1641</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



What Happened: The leading cryptocurrency gained momentum, reclaiming $108,000 after more than a week&#8217;s absence. The trading volume popped 3.43% to $50 billion over the last 24 hours.



Anthony Pompliano&#8217;s Bitcoin treasury company ProCap BTC, LLC, bought another 1,208 BTC at an average price of $105,977, taking its total holdings to 4,932 BTC, worth $531.4 million. 



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">We have purchased another 1,208 bitcoin. The average price was ~ $105,977 per bitcoin. We now hold a total of 4,932 bitcoin. We believe bitcoin is the new hurdle rate. If you can't beat it, you have to buy it. Full press release here: <a href="https://t.co/wHHhrYDpJD">https://t.co/wHHhrYDpJD</a> <a href="https://t.co/LJpwuoyvCe">pic.twitter.com/LJpwuoyvCe</a>&mdash; Anthony Pompliano &#x1f32a; (@APompliano) <a href="https://twitter.com/APompliano/status/1937994001199575233?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 25, 2025</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



Ethereum consolidated in the $2,400 range before gaining traction overnight to exceed $2,450. Trading volume remained tepid for the second-largest cryptocurrency.



More than $200 million was liquidated from the cryptocurrency market in the last 24 hours, with nearly $102 million in bearish shorts wiped out.



Meanwhile, Bitcoin&#8217;s open interest surged nearly 5% in the last 24 hours. A rise in open interest, combined with a price rise, is typically interpreted as a bullish signal.



The market's "Greed" sentiment strengthened from 66 to 74, according to the Crypto Fear &amp; Greed Index.



Top Gainers (24 Hours)



<figure class="wp-block-table"><table class="has-fixed-layout"><thead><tr><th>Cryptocurrency</th><th>Gains +/-</th><th>Price (Recorded at 10:00 p.m. ET)</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Pi (PI)</td><td>+12.86%</td><td>$0.6228</td></tr><tr><td>Kaspa (KAS) &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</td><td>+4.64%</td><td>$0.0781</td></tr><tr><td>Bitget Token (BGB)&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</td><td>+2.92%</td><td>$4.45 </td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



The global cryptocurrency market capitalization stood at $3.30 trillion, following a modest increase of 0.67% in the last 24 hours.



Stocks were a mixed bag on Wednesday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 106.59 points, or 0.25%, to end at 42,982.43. The S&amp;P 500 was barely changed, ending the session at 6,092.16. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite rose 0.31% to end at 19,973.55.



Artificial intelligence darling NVIDIA Corp. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>) surged 4.33% to <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/movers/25/06/46098276/nvidia-stock-soars-near-record-high-whats-driving-the-rally#:~:text=According%20to%20data%20from%20Benzinga,52%2Dweek%20low%20of%20%2486.62.">close at a record high</a> on Wednesday, becoming the world's most valuable company.



See More: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/money/best-crypto-scanners">Best Cryptocurrency Scanners</a>



Analyst Notes: On-chain analytics firm Santiment highlighted a divergence in trader behavior for Bitcoin and Ethereum.



"With BTC pushing crypto&#8217;s recovery, traders are shorting (expecting a slight pullback). Meanwhile, ETH has been trailing, and traders are longing in hopes it will catch up," Santiment stated.



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">&#x1f4ca; Traders are pushing Bitcoin&#39;s &amp; Ethereum&#39;s funding rates in 2 directions. With <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%24BTC&amp;src=ctag&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">$BTC</a> pushing crypto&#39;s recovery, traders are shorting (expecting a slight pullback). Meanwhile, <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%24ETH&amp;src=ctag&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">$ETH</a> has been trailing, and traders are longing in hopes it will catch up. &#x1f517; <a href="https://t.co/TDl4zmxxnD">https://t.co/TDl4zmxxnD</a> <a href="https://t.co/miBpxw5oNi">pic.twitter.com/miBpxw5oNi</a>&mdash; Santiment (@santimentfeed) <a href="https://twitter.com/santimentfeed/status/1937923598695514430?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 25, 2025</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



Widely followed cryptocurrency analyst Cas Abbé likened Bitcoin&#8217;s current price action at $108,000 to its $20,000 level in 2020.



"In 2020-21 cycle, BTC pumped 3x in just 3 months," Abbé said. "I&#8217;m not saying that BTC will pull a 3x, but there will be a similar parabolic move.



The analyst projected BTC to soar 50%-80% in the next 3-4 months before a blow-off top.



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">Buying <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%24BTC&amp;src=ctag&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">$BTC</a> now is like buying BTC at $20K in 2020. I&#39;m not saying that BTC will pull a 3x, but there will be a similar parabolic move. In 2020-21 cycle, BTC pumped 3x in just 3 months. This time, I&#39;m expecting 50%-80% move within 3-4 months before a blow-off top. Make no… <a href="https://t.co/xYd5tcFgXn">pic.twitter.com/xYd5tcFgXn</a>&mdash; Cas Abbé (@cas_abbe) <a href="https://twitter.com/cas_abbe/status/1937791511422271522?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 25, 2025</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



Photo Courtesy: PeopleImages.com &#8211; Yuri A on Shutterstock.com



Read Next:&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/crypto/cryptocurrency/25/06/46094408/how-bitcoin-is-maturing-to-a-global-liquidity-asset-report">How Bitcoin Is Maturing To A Global Liquidity Asset: Report</a></li>
</ul>

$DOGE

$ETH

Bitcoin Tops This Key Level As Institutions Pile On, Ethereum, Dogecoin Rangebound: Analyst Says Buying BTC Now Is Like Buying It For $20,000 In 2020

On Wednesday, Meta Platforms Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>) scored a legal victory as a federal judge ruled that the company&#8217;s use of <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/entertainment/23/07/33158772/sarah-silverman-and-other-authors-allege-openai-meta-wield-ai-tech-to-steal-info">copyrighted books</a> to train its AI models is protected under the fair use doctrine.



What Happened: A lawsuit filed by 13 authors, including Sarah Silverman, claimed Meta illegally used their copyrighted works to train AI models.



However, U.S. District Judge Vince Chhabria sided with Meta, granting summary judgment and stating that the company's actions fell under fair use, <a href="https://techcrunch.com/2025/06/25/federal-judge-sides-with-meta-in-lawsuit-over-training-ai-models-on-copyrighted-books/">reported</a> TechCrunch.



See Also:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/tech/25/06/45988600/mark-zuckerbergs-meta-dangled-100-million-signing-bonuses-to-openai-team-members-says-sam-altman-happy-none-of-our-best-people-took-them" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Mark Zuckerberg&#8217;s Meta Dangled ‘$100 Million Signing Bonuses&#8217; To OpenAI Team Members, Says Sam Altman: Happy ‘None&#8217; Of Our Best People Took Them</a>



&#8220;The plaintiffs presented no meaningful evidence on market dilution at all,&#8221; Judge Chhabria said. He went on to say that while the case was narrowly focused, AI model training can be deemed transformative, meaning Meta's models didn't simply replicate the authors' works.



Judge Chhabria added that this decision doesn't make all AI model training legal, but pointed out that the plaintiffs failed to make sufficient arguments about market harm.



Subscribe to the&nbsp;<a href="https://bztechtrends.beehiiv.com/subscribe" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Benzinga Tech Trends newsletter</a>&nbsp;to get all the latest tech developments delivered to your inbox.



Why It&#8217;s Important: The decision follows a <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/tech/25/06/46088008/elon-musk-agrees-google-had-all-the-tools-but-still-lost-the-ai-race-to-openai-echoes-social-media-post-having-the-pieces-isnt-the-same-as-playing-the-game">similar ruling in favor</a> of Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>) backed Anthropic, another AI company.&nbsp;



However, multiple other lawsuits are ongoing against tech firms accused of using different types of copyrighted content for AI training.



This includes The New York Times's <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/02/37121678/openai-lawsuit-judge-calls-sarah-silverman-other-authors-copyright-infringement-claim-insufficient">case against</a> OpenAI and Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>) over the use of its news articles, while Walt Disney Co. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DIS#NYSE">DIS</a>) and Comcast Corp's (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CMCSA#NASDAQ">CMCSA</a>) Universal Studios have taken legal action against Midjourney for <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/legal/25/06/45895643/disney-universal-studios-sue-ai-image-generator-midjourney-for-copyright-infringement">allegedly training AI models</a> on movies and television content.



Price Action: Meta shares declined by 0.49% in Wednesday's regular trading and edged up by 0.017% in after-hours trading, as per <a href="https://pro.benzinga.com/dashboard">Benzinga Pro</a>.



Benzinga's Edge Stock Rankings show a steady upward trajectory for META over short, medium and long-term periods. <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/premium/ideas/benzinga-edge-2#:~:text=Turn%20Market%20Chaos,when%20markets%20rebound'">Additional performance insights can be found here</a>.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/premium/ideas/benzinga-edge-2#:~:text=Turn%20Market%20Chaos,when%20markets%20rebound'"><img decoding="async" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/25225004/Screenshot-2025-06-26-at-8.18.07%E2%80%AFAM.png" alt="" class="wp-image-962394"/></a></figure>



Photo Courtesy: Skorzewiak on Shutterstock.com



Check out more of Benzinga&#8217;s Consumer Tech coverage by&nbsp;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/consumer-tech" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">following this link</a>.



Read Next:&nbsp;



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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/05/45396297/cathie-wood-dumps-palantir-as-stock-touches-peak-prices-bails-on-soaring-flying-taxi-maker-archer-aviation" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Cathie Wood Dumps Palantir As Stock Touches Peak Prices, Bails On Soaring Flying-Taxi Maker Archer Aviation</a></li>
</ul>



Disclaimer:&nbsp;This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.

Legal

Media

CMCSA

Mark Zuckerberg's Meta Beats Lawsuit Over AI Training On Books, Judge Finds 'No Meaningful Evidence On Market Dilution'

Cathie Wood-led Ark Invest made notable trades on Wednesday, focusing on Shopify Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SHOP#NYSE">SHOP</a>) and Robinhood Markets Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/HOOD#NASDAQ">HOOD</a>). 



The Shopify Trade: Ark Invest made significant purchases of Shopify shares across multiple ETFs, including ARK Fintech Innovation ETF (BATS:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ARKF#BATS">ARKF</a>), ARK Innovation ETF (BATS:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ARKK#BATS">ARKK</a>), and ARK Next Generation Internet ETF (BATS:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ARKW#BATS">ARKW</a>). The firm acquired a total of 36,058 shares of Shopify. This move aligns with Ark&#8217;s continued interest in high-growth technology and e-commerce sectors, as seen in their recent trades. On Wednesday, Shopify shares ended the day at $113.89, making the Ark transactions worth $4.11 million.



It should be noted that a day earlier, Ark <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs/broad-u-s-equity-etfs/25/06/46086884/cathie-wood-drops-6-5-million-on-shop-and-abnb-betting-you-wont-stop-shopping-or-traveling">purchased $3.9 million</a> worth of Shopify shares through multiple ETFs as well. Shopify's first-quarter earnings beat analyst expectations, posting 26.8% year-over-year revenue growth despite shrinking gross margins.



The Robinhood Trade: In a contrasting move, Ark Invest sold 55,949 shares of Robinhood through ARKK. This decision comes as Robinhood&#8217;s stock trends upward, <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/movers/25/06/46102635/whats-going-on-with-robinhood-stock-today-4">reaching all-time highs</a>. The stock reached a 52-week high of $85.55 on Wednesday. For the day, Robinhood shares closed at $82.75, making the Ark transaction at $4.63 million. 



The company is expected to release its June trading metrics soon, following its annual shareholder meeting. Despite geopolitical tensions, Robinhood&#8217;s platform has shown resilience, with no major shifts in retail trading behavior, as highlighted by CEO Vlad Tenev. The executive noted that recent geopolitical tensions haven&#8217;t <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/crypto/cryptocurrency/25/06/46097909/robinhood-ceo-highlights-retail-investor-interest-in-nvidia-tesla-despite-middle-east-tensions-barely-a-blip">shaken the confidence of retail traders</a> and money has continued to flow into artificial intelligence, cryptocurrencies and financial technology segments.



Other Key Trades:



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Toast Inc. (TOST): Ark Invest purchased 7,970 shares for ARKF and 13,983 shares for ARKW.</li>



<li>Beam Therapeutics Inc. (BEAM): Acquired 89,345 shares for ARKK.</li>



<li>Veracyte Inc. (VCYT): Bought 50,736 shares for ARKK.</li>



<li>Twist Bioscience Corp. (TWST): Added 11,770 shares for ARKK.</li>



<li>CRISPR Therapeutics AG (CRSP): Purchased 5,955 shares for ARKK.</li>
</ul>



Benzinga's Edge Stock Rankings indicate Robinhood has Momentum in the 98th percentile. How does rival Coinbase compare? <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/premium/ideas/benzinga-edge-2#:~:text=Turn%20Market%20Chaos,when%20markets%20rebound">Find out here.</a>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/premium/ideas/benzinga-edge-2#:~:text=Turn%20Market%20Chaos,when%20markets%20rebound"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="445" height="278" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/25211245/Screenshot-2025-06-26-at-10.12.28.png" alt="" class="wp-image-962331" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/25211245/Screenshot-2025-06-26-at-10.12.28.png 445w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/25211245/Screenshot-2025-06-26-at-10.12.28-300x187.png 300w" sizes="(max-width: 445px) 100vw, 445px" /></a></figure>



Photo Courtesy: Ira Lichi On Shutterstock.com



Read Next: 



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="https://benzinga.com/crypto/cryptocurrency/25/06/46067898/trumps-crypto-ventures-have-been-lucrative-but-adam-schiff-says-he-is-bringing-in-a-law-to-" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Trump&#8217;s Crypto Ventures Have Been &#8216;Lucrative,&#8217; But Adam Schiff Says He Is Bringing In A Law To End &#8216;Corruption In Plain Sight&#8217;</a></li>
</ul>



This story was generated using <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/author/benzinga-neuro">Benzinga Neuro</a> and edited by <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/author/shivdeep-dhaliwal" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Shivdeep Dhaliwal</a>

ARKF

ARKK

ARKW

HOOD

SHOP

Cathie Wood Doubles Down On Shopify, Buys The Dip — Dumps $4.6 Million Worth Of Robinhood Stock At Peak

Micron Technology Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MU#NASDAQ">MU</a>) reported financial results for the third quarter of fiscal 2025 after the market close on Wednesday. Here&#8217;s what you need to know <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/pressreleases/25/06/g46103361/micron-technology-inc-reports-results-for-the-third-quarter-of-fiscal-2025">from the report</a>.



Q3 Earnings: Micron reported third-quarter revenue of $9.3 billion, beating the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/MU/earnings" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">consensus estimate</a>&nbsp;of $8.87 billion. The company reported third-quarter adjusted earnings of $1.91 per share, beating analyst estimates of $1.60 per share, according to <a href="http://pro.benzinga.com/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Benzinga Pro</a>.



Total revenue was up roughly 16% on a year-over-year basis. Operating cash flow came in at $4.61 billion versus $3.94 billion in the prior quarter and $2.48 billion in the comparable quarter last year. The company generated $1.95 billion in adjusted free cash in the third quarter.



&#8220;Micron delivered record revenue in fiscal third quarter, driven by all-time-high DRAM revenue, including nearly 50% sequential growth in HBM revenue. Data center revenue more than doubled year-over-year and reached a quarterly record, and consumer-oriented end markets had strong sequential growth,&#8221; said Sanjay Mehrotra, president and CEO of Micron.



Micron ended the period with $12.22 billion in cash,&nbsp;marketable investments and restricted cash. Micron&#8217;s board declared a quarterly dividend of $0.115 per share, payable on July 22 to shareholders of record as of July 7.



Outlook: Micron expects fourth-quarter revenue of $10.7 billion, plus or minus $300 million, versus estimates of $9.88 billion. The company anticipates fourth-quarter adjusted earnings of $2.50 per share, plus or minus 15 cents, versus estimates of $2.01 per share.



&#8220;We are on track to deliver record revenue with solid profitability and free cash flow in fiscal 2025, while we make disciplined investments to build on our technology leadership and manufacturing excellence to satisfy growing AI-driven memory demand,&#8221; Mehrotra said.



Micron&#8217;s management team will further discuss details of the quarter on a call with analysts and investors at 4:30 p.m. ET.



MU Price Action: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/MU" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Micron shares</a> were up 3.74% in after-hours Wednesday, trading at $132 at the time of publication, according to <a href="http://pro.benzinga.com/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Benzinga Pro</a>.



Read Next:



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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/movers/25/06/46099614/aerovironment-posts-better-than-expected-earnings-joins-quantumscape-bumble-blackberry-and-other-big-stocks-moving-higher-on-wednesday">AeroVironment Posts Better-Than-Expected Earnings, Joins QuantumScape, Bumble, BlackBerry And Other Big Stocks Moving Higher On Wednesday</a></li>



<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs/sector-etfs/25/06/46098656/nvidia-amazon-tesla-among-tech-stocks-hedge-funds-are-piling-into-heres-how-etfs-like-ivv-spy-voo-are-riding-the-wave">Nvidia, Amazon, Tesla Among Tech Stocks Hedge Funds Are Piling Into — Here&#8217;s How ETFs Like IVV, SPY, VOO Are Riding The Wave</a></li>
</ul>



Photo: Shutterstock.

Guidance

After-Hours Center

Micron Q3 Earnings: Revenue, EPS Beat Estimates As Data Center Revenue More Than Doubles, Strong Guidance On Rising AI-Driven Demand

With an ugly geopolitical flashpoint seemingly averted for now, Brazilian energy giant Petrobras (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PBR#NYSE">PBR</a>) and other hydrocarbon specialists incurred some red ink during the midweek session. On Tuesday, President Donald Trump declared that a <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/06/46090358/us-stocks-likely-to-edge-higher-as-iran-israel-ceasefire-holds-micron-technology-general-mills-in-focus-ahead-of-earnings">ceasefire between Israel and Iran</a> was in effect, despite reports of renewed hostilities putting the deal into question. For now, the agreement seems to be holding. Still, the tenuous framework may eventually present a cynical upside opportunity for PBR stock.



On a Truth Social post, Trump stated that "Israel is not going to attack Iran. All planes will turn around and head home, while doing a friendly ‘Plane Wave' to Iran." Assuming that the ceasefire leads to a more sustained solution, the threat of global oil disruption has declined, thus leading to increasing pressure against PBR stock and its ilk.



Since Israel launched its attack against Iran on June 13, a key concern has been the Strait of Hormuz. A pivotal energy artery, the passage accounts for <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs/sector-etfs/25/06/46056666/how-a-strait-of-hormuz-shock-could-ignite-a-surge-in-energy-and-defense-etfs">nearly one-third of the world's oil supply</a>. With the U.S. military launching B-2 bombers to <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/movers/25/06/46082397/oil-prices-tumble-as-israel-iran-ceasefire-takes-shape-for-now">strike multiple Iranian nuclear facilities</a>, tensions and anxieties skyrocketed.



Even with the ceasefire in effect, analysts remain cautious, pointing to the fragile nature of the agreement, along with the potential for renewed clashes. A major source of friction is the stated reason why Israel and the U.S. attacked Iran: the country's nuclear program.



According to a CBS News <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/israel-iran-ceasefire-uncertainty-nuclear-program-strikes-iaea-monitoring/">report</a>, an initial classified intelligence assessment revealed that Iran's nuclear capability was only set back by months. What's more, Iranian Parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf stated that the peaceful nuclear program will "move forward at a faster pace."



If so, a geopolitical cloud continues to hang over the region, which could potentially ignite oil prices.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Leveraging Statistics To Trade PBR Stock</h2>



Although the concept of the energy market swinging back to life following another unexpected event may be enticing, it also lacks specificity. For those interested in trading PBR stock options, it's not enough to have a thesis regarding the magnitude component or the y-axis of the price chart. Rather, the targeted move must also materialize within the specified time element (x-axis) due to options expiring.



In other words, options traders live in a world of probabilities, which incentivizes statistical analysis. At first glance, this exercise seems simple enough: merely take the frequency of the desired outcome divided by the total number of events in the target dataset. However, this approach only calculates the derivative probability or the outcome odds over the dataset's entire distribution. What traders are looking for is the conditional probability — outcome odds over a specific subset of the data.



Derivative probabilities are akin to the advice that educators often give: because the <a href="https://thecollegesolution.com/the-odds-of-a-full-ride-athletic-scholarship/">odds</a> of receiving an athletic scholarship are so low, it's best to focus on academic scholarship opportunities. But if you're a phenomenal football player, your conditional odds of receiving a full ride based on your athletic abilities may be exponentially greater than the aggregate odds.



That's essentially the point about PBR stock. Based on its price action and past analogs, PBR may be poised to perform better than it usually does. But to calculate the odds, we must first convert past price data into a unified language, which is where market breadth comes in. As sequences of accumulative and distributive sessions, market breadth is effectively binary and thus enables categorization and quantification. Ultimately, these attributes empower probabilistic analysis.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="576" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/25145642/PBR-stock-10wk-forecast-1024x576.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-962129" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/25145642/PBR-stock-10wk-forecast-1024x576.jpg 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/25145642/PBR-stock-10wk-forecast-300x169.jpg 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/25145642/PBR-stock-10wk-forecast-768x432.jpg 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/25145642/PBR-stock-10wk-forecast.jpg 1280w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Image by author</figcaption></figure>



Currently, PBR stock is printing a "4-6-U" sequence: four up weeks, six down weeks, with a net positive trajectory across the 10-week period. Admittedly, the conversion of past pricing data into a binary code compresses the underlying magnitude component. However, the key benefit of this compression is the categorization of price action as discrete behavioral states. These states reflect past analogs, which can be studied to determine the likelihood of transition from one state to another.



From past empirical data, we can objectively determine that when the 4-6-U sequence flashes, the following week's price action results in upside 68.75% of the time, with a median return of 2.43%. Should the bulls maintain control of the market for a second week, the projected upside return is 2.58%.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">A Daring But Enticing Call Spread To Consider</h2>



Based on the market intelligence above, aggressive speculators may consider the 12/13 bull call spread expiring July 18. This transaction involves buying the $12 call and simultaneously selling the $13 call, for a net debit paid of $48 (the most that can be lost in the trade). Should PBR stock rise through the short strike price ($13) at expiration, the maximum reward is $52, a payout of over 108%.



For those who are super-aggressive, the 12.50/13 bull spread (also expiring on July 18) is available. Here, the net debit is lower at $17 and the max reward is $33, translating to a payout of over 194%. However, the breakeven price for this trade is $12.67 as opposed to $12.48 for the 12/13 spread, meaning that the probabilistic risk is also higher.



Still, the common incentive undergirding both trades is the implied shift in sentiment regime of the 4-6-U sequence. As a baseline, the chance that a long position in PBR stock will be profitable over any given week is only 51.82%. Therefore, those already prone to speculation have a statistical incentive to swing the bat.



The opinions and views expressed in this content are those of the individual author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Benzinga. Benzinga is not responsible for the accuracy or reliability of any information provided herein. This content is for informational purposes only and should not be misconstrued as investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Readers are asked not to rely on the opinions or information herein, and encouraged to do their own due diligence before making investing decisions.



Read Next:



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/options/25/06/46083803/tjx-stock-upside-shoppers-hunt-discounts">Options Corner: TJX Companies May Be Poised For Upside As Shoppers Hunt For Discounts</a></li>
</ul>



Photo: Shutterstock

Long Ideas

Options

Events

Options Corner: A Tenuous Ceasefire Keeps Petrobras In Play For Opportunistic Traders

It's already been an eventful week for U.S. markets, with tensions in the Middle East bubbling and then calming down following a <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/politics/25/06/46042703/iran-calls-us-bombing-of-nuclear-sites-very-very-dangerous-for-everybody">weekend of bombardment.</a> But despite the uncertainty regarding a potential ceasefire, the stock and commodities markets shrugged it off with the NASDAQ 100 finally notching a new all-time high and oil prices dipping back under $66 per barrel.



Markets are not out of the woods yet, as consumer sentiment continues to be shaky and the Fed remains on hold awaiting more economic data on the impact of tariffs. But the trend toward new all-time highs appears strong and retail traders are back to being bullish.



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Each of the five stocks rates highly on Benzinga Edge's Value Score rankings and exhibits technical signals indicating that momentum shifts may be brewing beneath the surface.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Costamare Inc.&nbsp;</h2>



Benzinga Edge Value Score: 98.04



Bulk shippers like Costamare (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CMRE#NYSE">CMRE</a>) have been caught in the Trump administration's tariff tug-of-war, but the decline has been so steep that the stock now appears undervalued. Despite a Q1 2025 earnings beat on both EPS and revenue, CMRE trades at just 3.7 times earnings and 0.5 times sales, and the dividend now yields over 5%.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXepogNA3oub0pkCTAE-Z1tJik259Dyf1zUxOYl00I0O1bb-228WkeiN_0bLeOw-H58rgG6TCAGG648vqj8Vbhxk-BLL23pBWuZ2A1gjIy6pLmgml2JBiLIoJ1dimfcwCPqqFeotng?key=hP5zZ9dGchmBHAd5CwfA1Q" alt=""/></figure>



CMRE spent most of the last 12 months in a prolonged downtrend. The stock peaked at $12.75 in June 2024 before dropping nearly 50%, with frequent false signals when the Relative Strength Index (RSI) tripped the Oversold alarm.&nbsp; But the stock rallied after the market bottom that followed Trump's reciprocal tariff announcement, gaining 10% and finally breaking through the long-term resistance level that had been in place for nearly a year. The RSI anticipated the breakout and actually triggered an Overbought signal twice in May and June, but now that it's back below 70, the new uptrend can continue.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Peabody Energy Corp.&nbsp;</h2>



Benzinga Edge Value Score: 98.08



Coal miners have also struggled in 2025 despite reassurances from the Trump administration. Small caps like Peabody (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BTU#NYSE">BTU</a>) ($1.54 billion market cap) have been trending downward since Election Day. But BTU now trades at just 5 times forward earnings and 0.4 times sales, but its terrible start to 2025 (down 40% year-to-date) could be about to change. 



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXfX88YZ1zVqX8S0ODVvGaIsbqlVMPbJVvQwyRuFdNFUxuE1_GwHNMv2wqPlCrEFp1AtWvhErPuUtfKjbjMpBBfPjkFcmx5Rj_5vepvdoj2-354hA0QxQC-bDTycZw4Om8r0T3JI?key=hP5zZ9dGchmBHAd5CwfA1Q" alt=""/></figure>



Peabody's stock didn't experience a lengthy drawdown like CMRE, but the decline's brevity didn't mask its fierceness. The stock dropped more than 60% from Election Day to Easter, trading in a tight range with multiple failed attempts to breach support and resistance levels. The downtrend finally broke in April, and although the stock hasn't exactly gone parabolic, the breakout was confirmed by a bullish MACD crossover in May. The climb back to new highs might be a slow one, but BTU has an attractive valuation and a chart signaling the momentum has turned. It also still has a short interest of over 17%, which could further fuel any rallies in the coming days or weeks.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Hello Group Inc.&nbsp;</h2>



Benzinga Edge Value Score: 97.31



Hello Group (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MOMO#NASDAQ">MOMO</a>) was a meme stock before there were meme stocks; its chart from 2017 and 2018 is enough to give even seasoned investors vertigo. But those days are long gone, and the stock has spent years trying to break out of a fortress-like resistance level. However, now that the stock trades at just eight times earnings and 0.7 times sales, investors are giving it a second look, and that resistance level has finally been broken.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXeqIMYt2D-5FPmnHZ_uycJYfVUM6YpwpfWPBVAv55Si8bSEmdGYFnbMmICjgpqFm7N9CyeylBor1Kg7qXSU3iNJvqpHfMR-rpui8p9nzZl0jTmylGY-Px19kB0_Og03AKpJcVT1Tw?key=hP5zZ9dGchmBHAd5CwfA1Q" alt=""/></figure>



Talk about lengthy range-bound trading, Hello Group has traded between $5 and $8 since September 2023, and has failed multiple attempts to break through the resistance level above the $8 mark. But the MACD is showing outsized bullish momentum compared to previous quarters. The share price finally crested $8.15 for the first time in nearly two years. Volatility is increasing (did you expect something different with the ticker MOMO?), but if the old resistance level becomes support, this stock might not be done posting explosive gains in 2025.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Hamilton Insurance Group Ltd.&nbsp;</h2>



Benzinga Edge Value Score: 95.46



Hamilton (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/HG#NYSE">HG</a>), a small-cap insurer based in Bermuda, has a market capitalization of $2.15 billion and annual sales of $2.3 billion. Strong earnings and guidance raises have fueled the stock's recent upward move, as the company handily beat EPS (0.48 per share vs. the expected 0.04) and revenue estimates ($843 million vs. the expected $498 million). But despite this massive beat, the stock still trades at just 5 times forward earnings and 0.9 times sales. 



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXfpPbi5r2etuPt1EIIZowVx3H4uW2WOWxCi8fU0PFtBA9UG1fwnOpVci1FucqSDMPc-9yfRD9qvdOuBlp5tNDwJNuNnNYYGA5vn9utbV2AX4LP6GcvvbkMU4bmrkkqkBeTFPTSzPw?key=hP5zZ9dGchmBHAd5CwfA1Q" alt=""/></figure>



Above is a chart showing an undervalued company poised to build a new bull market. The stock price has been trading above both the 50-day and 200-day MAs, with the 50-day MA acting as support since mid-2024. Trump's tariffs briefly interrupted this trend, but the price quickly rose back above both MAs and appears to be balancing along the 50-day once again. The RSI is also back under 60 after a brief venture into Overbought territory, so another bounce off the 50-day would likely have strong upside momentum.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Tri-Pointe Homes Inc.&nbsp;</h2>



Benzinga Edge Value Score: 95.14



Investing in homebuilders is a dicey proposition at the moment, considering the headwinds facing the construction industry. However, Tri-Pointe's (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TPH#NYSE">TPH</a>) surprisingly strong Q1 2025 earnings indicate a resilient company capable of weathering economic turbulence. TPH posted EPS figures of $0.70 per share, easily exceeding the $0.45 per share estimate. The April report also triggered a momentum shift in the stock, which currently trades at just 8.9 times forward earnings and 0.65 times sales.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXeDNgKBM88C12hDZmnsVLwopEb16MbGlyPNMOyDcylqxqTQWvF_bLukcvCnDXwF6O4NXh1gpzT4GWBJ6m31JGOwgYSg4-Ao8sf8ytTSwfcNKN4QsfphbXe46Qnj6CAbuq54dapFhQ?key=hP5zZ9dGchmBHAd5CwfA1Q" alt=""/></figure>



Like most homebuilders, TPH's shares couldn't shake downward momentum as high mortgage rates kept the housing market frozen. Housing is still struggling to gain traction (highlighted by this week's <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/macro-notification/25/06/46070420/us-home-sales-sink-to-slowest-may-since-2009-as-mortgage-rates-and-record-prices-keep-buyers-on-the-sidelines">poor report</a> in new home sales), but TPH has finally broken its downtrend, and momentum is slowly consolidating at a new support level. The RSI has been trending upward in unison with the stock price, giving more weight to the momentum shift. And with the RSI sitting at 57, the upswing likely has more room to run.



Editorial content from our expert contributors is intended to be information for the general public and not individualized investment advice. Editors/contributors are presenting their individual opinions and strategies, which are neither expressly nor impliedly approved or endorsed by Benzinga.



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