Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (ARCA: FXY)

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The fund seeks to reflect the price in USD of the Japanese Yen. The sponsor believes that, for many investors, the shares represent a cost-effective investment relative to traditional means of investing in the foreign exchange market.

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금리인상이 임박함에 따라 투자자들은 이러한 시장 변화를 활용하기 위해 일본에 초점을 맞춘 ETF를 평가하고 있다. 주목해야 할 주요 ETF는 다음과 같다. 

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다음 주 일본은행(BoJ) 회의를 앞두고 투자자 심리가 다시 &#39;BoJ 트레이드&#39;로 돌아서고 있다. 이는 일본 주식과 은행에 대한 롱(매수) 포지션을 취하고, 엔화와 일본 국채(JGB)를 숏(매도) 포지션으로 거래하는 전략이다.

트럼프 정책 &#39;BoJ 트레이드&#39;를 되살릴까: 일본이 새로운 인플레이션 투자처인가?

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Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust(NYSE:FXY)가 추적하는 일본 엔화는 월요일 미국 달러당 153.20달러를 넘어 약세를 보이며 2024년 7월 말 이후 최저 수준을 기록했다.

엔화, 달러 대비 3개월 최저치 기록, 일본의 정치적 불확실성 증가로 8년 만에 최악의 달 전망

As gold rips through record highs above $3,500 an ounce, another classic safe haven is quietly staging one of its strongest comebacks in over <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/japan">a decade: the Japanese yen.</a>
With global investors gripped by tariff fears, central bank politicization, and a deteriorating U.S. economic backdrop, Japan's currency has emerged as a stealth winner, rallying 12% year-to-date through April 22—its strongest surge since 2010. 
On Tuesday, the USD/JPY pair fell to 140.45, marking its lowest level since September 2024.
A risk-off trade that long seemed forgotten—long yen, short U.S. equities—has returned to form with force. 
A strategy betting on the Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FXY#NYSE">FXY</a>) while shorting the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) would have delivered a 24% gain since the start of the year.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="582" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/22083522/image-126-1024x582.png" alt="" class="wp-image-881800" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/22083522/image-126-1024x582.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/22083522/image-126-300x170.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/22083522/image-126-768x436.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/22083522/image-126-1536x873.png 1536w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/22083522/image-126.png 1901w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Political Uncertainty Fuels The Flight To Yen</h2>
The deepening standoff between President Donald Trump and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has rattled global confidence in the U.S. financial assets while boosting flows towards traditional safe havens.
What began as Trump's critique of Powell's monetary policy has escalated into a full-blown power struggle, with Trump openly suggesting he may remove Powell before his term ends in 2026.
On Monday, Trump&#8217;s latest Truth Social salvo accused Powell of being "Mr. Too Late" and claimed the Fed Chair had acted politically during the last election cycle.
In this environment, non-dollar safe havens like gold and the yen are soaking up demand. While gold draws headlines with its 30% year-to-date rally, the yen's strength speaks volumes about how global capital is repositioning as U.S. institutions come under pressure.
"The yen is the biggest winner in this latest round of USD selling," said Francesco Pesole, FX strategist at ING. "It responds to both the equity slump and the risks to the Fed's independence."
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Analysts See More Upside For The Yen</h2>
Pesole doesn't see the yen's rally reversing anytime soon. 
"USD/JPY has dropped below the 140 mark and, given the broad attractiveness of the yen as a safe-haven substitute, we don't see the conditions for an immediate reversal," he said, adding that a move toward 135.0 could materialize if currency discussions surface during U.S.-Japan trade talks this week.
Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato is set to meet U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, with currency issues reportedly high on the agenda. 
If the Trump administration seeks a trade concession in the form of a weaker dollar vs. the yen, markets could quickly price in further gains for Japan's currency.
Alejandro Cuadrado, strategist at BBVA, indicated that "USD/JPY has the 135.58 2024 low in sight," citing the yen's strength from haven flows, solid fundamentals and a Bank of Japan stance that appears steady even amid global volatility.
Indeed, reports on Monday suggested BoJ officials have no plans to abandon their tightening bias, even as inflation forecasts are expected to be trimmed in light of the stronger yen. 
"The yen exuberance remains unchallenged in G10 FX," Cuadrado added. "We believe the pair has room to consolidate at lower levels in the coming months."
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Yen Outperforms In VIX Spikes, Even When Yields Rise</h3>
Goldman Sachs FX strategist Kamakshya Trivedi highlighted that the yen tends to outperform the dollar during periods of simultaneous bond and equity selloff. That&#8217;s particularly the case when the CBOE Volatility Index is elevated.
"The past few days have been more unique—with growing odds of a U.S. downturn coinciding with higher yields and lower equities," Trivedi said. 
"When we calculate average USD/JPY returns since 2000 on days when both bonds and equities sell off, the yen tends to outperform—especially when the VIX spikes."
Goldman maintains a 12-month target of 135 for USD/JPY, yet Trivedi noted that deterioration in the U.S. labor market or further market stress could significantly accelerate that timeline.
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Macro Economic Events

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Japanese Yen Surges To 7-Month Highs, Expects Best Year Since 2010 As Safe-Haven Stampede Intensifies

JPMorgan's Meera Chandan is doubling down on the dollar's downfall and placing a bullish bet on the Japanese yen.
What Happened: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/donald-trump">President Donald Trump'</a>s reciprocal tariffs plunge stocks into the red, there are growing concerns that a recession is possible. 
&#8220;The breadth and size of tariffs have increased recession risks,&#8221; Chandan said. &#8220;Growth is at risk everywhere, including the US.&#8221;
According to Chandan, the currency market is waking up to a stagflationary cocktail: weakening U.S. growth paired with persistent inflation. That combo is taking a bite out of real yields and the greenback&#8217;s allure. As equity allocations fall and capital rethinks its destination, the U.S. dollar is losing its shine.
Chandan sees this as a moment to stay firmly bearish on the dollar, particularly against defensive currencies like the Japanese yen and the euro. But while both offer refuge, she prefers the yen for its relative value. Chandan favors the Japanese yen among traditional reserve currencies, calling it a cheaper defensive option than the Swiss franc.
Read Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com//node/44315966">The Rise Of ETFs In Japan: How Investors Can Gain From Bond Yield Surge</a>
The technical picture backs her up. With U.S. real yields sliding and equity investors heading for the exit, the yen&#8217;s low yield becomes a feature, not a bug. Chandan isn't just skeptical of the dollar — she's positioning to profit from its pain.
Her strategy includes staying short USD/JPY and loading up on cross-yen shorts like EUR/JPY, NZD/JPY, and CHF/JPY.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">How To Play It</h2>
Retail investors looking to follow Chandan's lead might explore the Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FXY#NYSE">FXY</a>) for direct exposure to yen strength, or ProShares Short U.S. Dollar ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DOG#NYSE">DOG</a>) for a broader USD bearish bet.
Meanwhile, those hoping to catch the potential euro tailwind might consider Invesco CurrencyShares Euro Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FXE#NYSE">FXE</a>).
With U.S. yields buckling under stagflation pressure, Chandan says it's time to cozy up to the yen. The dollar's safe-haven status? Not so safe anymore.
Read Next: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com//node/44665493">US Recession &#8216;Countdown&#8217; Has Begun As Trump Tariffs Push Odds To 45%, Goldman Sachs Warns</a></li>
</ul>
Image: Shutterstock

Technicals

Short The Dollar, Back The Yen: Analyst Offers Strategy As 'Breadth Of Tariffs Increase Recession Risks'

Goldman Sachs economists have sounded the alarm on the U.S. economy, launching what they termed a &#8220;countdown to recession&#8221; as Donald Trump's aggressive tariff policy derails economic forecasts.
In a note shared Monday, the Goldman Sachs economic team led by Jan Hatzius downgraded its U.S. gross domestic product forecast for year-end 2025 to just 0.5% year-over-year, down from 1.7% previously. 
The downgrade follows a combination of shocks, including higher tariffs announced by the Trump administration, tightening financial conditions and rising geopolitical friction, that the bank says are disproportionately affecting lower-income Americans and threatening to derail the U.S. economy.
Traders on CFTC-regulated betting platform Kalshi currently price in a 66% chance of a U.S. recession this year, up from 40% last week.
<iframe loading="lazy" src="https://kalshi.com/external-widgets/events/RECSSNBER-25/markets/RECSSNBER-25?color_scheme=light&#038;widget_size=large&#038;utm_campaign=benzinga_widget" width="552px" height="400px" style="border:0"></iframe>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Trade War Reloaded? What's Behind The Rising Recession Call</h3>
Goldman Sachs said its baseline scenario still assumes some moderation in tariff implementation. Still, if most of the April 9 tariffs are enacted as planned, the effective U.S. tariff rate could surge by 20 percentage points.
"Our forecast had already assumed forceful retaliation by foreign governments, but we had not accounted for the effects of a consumer-led response," the team said, pointing to anticipated foreign consumer boycotts and reduced tourism flows to the United States, which alone could shave 0.1 to 0.2 percentage points off 2025 GDP.
Additionally, uncertainty around trade policy is compounding the issue. "Much of the very recent rise in uncertainty was related to President Trump's ‘reciprocal' tariff plan," Goldman said, adding that despite having more details, ambiguity around international responses and the scope of future tariff increases remains high.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Investment And Hiring Set To Stall</h3>
Business investment, a key driver of economic growth, is now expected to flatline over the next 12 months. According to Goldman Sachs' models, there is now a 45% probability that capital expenditures will decline during that period.
The economic team also sees looming pressure on federal, state and local government spending, especially in sectors like healthcare, education and infrastructure, which is amplifying the drag on the economy.
"We now expect roughly flat business investment over the next year," Goldman said, noting that tightening financial conditions and tariff-driven uncertainty discourage companies from expanding or hiring.
Consumer spending, which makes up about 70% of the U.S. economy, is also under threat. As labor supply growth slows and job creation weakens, Goldman expects a meaningful deceleration in household consumption.
"Tariffs reduce real disposable income," the bank said, implying that higher prices for imported goods will weigh on consumer purchasing power, especially among lower-income households.
The combination of weaker hiring, stagnant investment and declining consumer confidence creates a toxic mix for growth, one that might push the economy into contraction territory if shocks continue to build.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Recession Risk Spurs Hedging Shift</h3>
The rise in recession probability is not just a warning signal — it&#8217;s a tactical call for investors to rethink their hedging strategies. 
Goldman Sachs analyst Karen Reichgott Fishman said the combination of diminishing U.S. economic exceptionalism and increased risk of recession supports a strategic move into safe-haven currencies.
"The loss of U.S. exceptionalism and higher recession risk argue for a shift in hedging strategy," Fishman said. "We think U.S. investors should be better off adding JPY, CHF, and even EUR exposure as protection."
Since last week&#8217;s tariff announcement, the Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FXY#NYSE">FXY</a>) has risen by 3%, while the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) fell 13%.
Read now: 
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/market-summary/25/04/44662164/us-stock-futures-slump-following-massive-tariff-induced-selloff-experts-warn-of-a-brewing-great-depression-like-pattern">US Stock Futures Drop Following Massive Tariff-Induced Selloff: Experts Warn Of A Brewing &#8216;Great Depression-Like&#8217; Pattern</a></li>
</ul>
Photo: Shutterstock

News

US Recession 'Countdown' Has Begun As Trump Tariffs Push Odds To 45%, Goldman Sachs Warns

Japan's financial markets are witnessing a shift as the country's benchmark 10-year government bond yield climbed to 1.575% on Monday, the highest level since 2008. This sharp rise follows data showing the fastest wage growth in more than three decades, strengthening expectations of further interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BOJ).
With higher interest rates on the horizon, investors are evaluating <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs">Japan-focused ETFs</a> to capitalize on these market shifts. Here are some key ETFs to watch:
iShares MSCI Japan Value ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EWJV#NASDAQ">EWJV</a>)
Generally, value stocks thrive better in a rising interest rates environment than growth stocks. In this scenario, investing in iShares MSCI Japan Value ETF could bode well. The ETF has gained 7.08% this year thus far. Value stocks tend to perform well in a high-rate environment as they are less reliant on borrowing and hence have stronger balance sheets.
Also Read: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs/specialty-etfs/25/02/43893016/rising-inflation-in-japan-3-etfs-to-watch-as-boj-navigates-rate-hike-expectations">Rising Inflation In Japan: 3 ETFs To Watch As BOJ Navigates Rate Hike Expectations</a>
iShares MSCI Japan Small Cap ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SCJ#NYSE">SCJ</a>)
A likely moderately stronger yen could be favorable for small-cap Japanese stocks, which are less reliant on exports compared to large-cap firms. An ETF to watch in this space is iShares MSCI Japan Small Cap ETF, which is up 5.77% year-to-date.
However, before choosing small-cap investments, investors should closely follow Japan's real wage hike momentum. While regular pay has seen its biggest <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-09/japan-sees-fastest-base-pay-gains-in-32-years-in-boost-for-boj?sref=TBDibEcD">increase </a>in more than 30 years, Reuters reported that real wages fell in January due to inflation reaching a two-year high. If nominal wage growth beats inflation in the coming months, small-cap stocks could gain from stronger domestic purchasing power.
Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FXY#NYSE">FXY</a>)
Any monetary policy tightening by the BOJ, which is a high probability now, is likely to strengthen the Japanese yen. This is where the Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust could prove to be a wise investment, benefiting from a stronger yen as the central bank adjusts its policy stance. Incidentally, BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda commented on the recent rises in bond yields, saying the market is factoring in expectations of future interest rate hikes, Reuters reported.
BOJ's Policy Path And Market Predictions
The BOJ put an end to its decade-long monetary stimulus in 2024 and <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/econ-s/25/01/43183053/bank-of-japan-raises-interest-rates-to-pre-2008-levels-amid-trumps-tariff-uncertainties">raised short-term interest rates</a> to 0.5% from 0.25% in January 2025. This decision stemmed from Japan's progress toward achieving a sustainable 2% inflation target.
According to Bloomberg, JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. has raised its year-end forecast for the 10-year Japanese government bond yield from 1.55% to 1.7%, with some investors predicting the yield could climb as high as 2%, <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/japan-10-yield-highest-since-071046785.html">quoted </a>Yahoo Finance.
Read Next: 
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs/specialty-etfs/25/03/44310370/3-etfs-with-super-micro-computers-exposure-enjoy-ai-surge">3 ETFs With Super Micro Computers Exposure, Enjoy AI Surge</a></li>
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Photo: Shutterstock

The Rise Of ETFs In Japan: How Investors Can Gain From Bond Yield Surge

U.S. stocks are wavering as investors have braced themselves for potential shifts in tariff policies from President Donald Trump. Markets remain cautious as Trump prepares to unveil his universal like-for-like tariff plan, set for midweek. On Feb. 10, the President imposed 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports starting March 4, intensifying pressure on top trading partners Canada and Mexico. Investors are weighing the potential impact of a trade war on corporate earnings, global growth and inflation.
Trump&#39;s steel tariffs could trigger a broader trade war as the EU threatens &lsquo;proportionate countermeasures. Tensions between the United States and China had already escalated after the United States implemented a 10% tariff on Chinese imports on Feb. 4. In response, China retaliated with tariffs on U.S. products, including a 15% levy on coal and liquefied natural gas (AMEX:LNG) and a 10% tariff on crude oil, agricultural machinery and automobiles from Feb. 10.
Meanwhile, UBS believes that the U.S. effective tariff rate on China will&nbsp;<a href="http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/aafn-news/NOW.1414645/1" target="_blank">eventually rise to 30%</a>&nbsp;from the current 11%. Investors are also worried about the Fed&#39;s policy momentum. Markets are eager for insights on how tariffs could influence inflation (read: <a href="https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/2411504/5-sector-etfs-walk-a-tightrope-amid-trade-tensions" target="_blank">5 Sector ETFs Walk a Tightrope Amid Trade Tensions</a>).
<h2>ETFs to Play</h2>
Against this backdrop, below we highlight a few safe exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that could be gainful in the near term.
SPDR Gold Trust GLD
Gold is often viewed as a safe-haven asset. Gold prices jump at the time of economic uncertainties. No wonder, gold prices surged to a fresh record as investors sought safety amid economic uncertainty. Note that unlike fiat currencies, which can be printed in unlimited quantities, gold has a finite supply. This scarcity helps maintain its value. Lately, demand for gold from central banks has been pretty high (read: <a href="https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/2408987/5-reasons-why-gold-etfs-are-smart-bets-now?art_rec=etfs-overview-zacks_news-ID04-txt-2408987" target="_blank">5 Reasons Why Gold ETFs Are Smart Bets Now</a>).
Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF XLP
In periods of economic uncertainty, market volatility, or inflationary pressures, the consumer staples sector is often considered a safe investment. The sector sells essential goods with steady demand. Unlike discretionary sectors, where spending fluctuates with economic cycles, consumer staples tend to have predictable revenues and earnings. Many consumer staples companies have a long history of paying consistent and growing dividends.
Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF XLU
The utility stocks also get a safe-haven tag. Utilities provide essential services such as electricity, water, and natural gas, which people and businesses rely on regardless of economic conditions. This makes the sector non-cyclical, meaning demand remains stable even during recessions. Utilities can often pass increased costs to consumers through regulated rate adjustments. Moreover, the latest AI boom has brightened the demand for utilities even more as this sector satisfies the AI industry&#39;s energy needs.
Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust FXY
The Japanese yen is widely recognized as a safe-haven currency, often appreciating during economic uncertainty, market volatility and geopolitical instability.Japan&#39;s consistent current account surplus indicates that the country is a net creditor to the world, bolstering confidence in the yen during turbulent times. The Japanese yen has been in great shape lately due to Bank of Japan&#39;s hawkish monetary policy (read: <a href="https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/2410818/time-for-yen-etf?art_rec=etfs-overview-zacks_news-ID01-txt-2410818" target="_blank">Time for Yen ETF?</a>).
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4 Safe ETFs to Play as Tariff Tensions Heat Up

Ahead of next week's <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/bank-of-japan">Bank of Japan</a> (BoJ) meeting, investor sentiment is shifting back toward the &#8216;BoJ trade&#8217; — a strategy that plays on long Japanese equities and banks, while shorting the yen and Japanese government bonds (JGBs).
Despite recent reports suggesting the BoJ is unlikely to hike rates before 2024, this revived trade has gained momentum, particularly after Donald Trump's election win, according to JPMorgan analyst Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou.
The yen has weakened, moving from 150 to 153 against the dollar, and the probability of a December rate hike has dropped sharply from 50% to just over 10%.
Read Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/econ-s/24/11/42221646/stocks-fall-yen-eyes-best-day-in-2-months-bitcoin-rebounds-above-96000-whats-driving-markets-wednesday">Stocks Fall, Yen Eyes Best Day In 2 Months, Bitcoin Rebounds Above $96,000: What&#8217;s Driving Markets Wednesday?</a>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Trump's Influence</h2>
Panigirtzoglou highlights that investors have been increasing their long positions in Japanese equities, shorting the yen, and shorting JGB futures, expecting that Japan's inflationary pressure from a weaker yen will lead to a boost in economic activity. 
The "BoJ trade" emerged at the end of 2022, with the expectation that Japan's persistent negative real rates and a weaker yen would spark inflation and allow the BoJ to lift nominal policy rates.
The inflationary aspect of Trump's policies, which reduce the chance of aggressive Fed rate cuts, has reignited investor interest in the trade.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">The BoJ's Indecision: A Mixed Market Reaction</h2>
Since September, Japanese equities have traded in a range, although Japanese banks have outperformed, benefiting from the weaker yen. 
Positioning in the futures space, particularly for Nikkei and JGBs, has been volatile. While the unwinding of the "BoJ trade" had been significant earlier this year, post-election positioning has surged. However, this build-up in JGB futures didn't last long, as investor sentiment quickly adjusted, reflecting uncertainty over the BoJ's next move.
As Panigirtzoglou notes, the positioning shift was particularly notable, with one-third of the short positions in yen futures and significant unwinding of short positions in JGB futures by the end of September.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Is Japan Still The Inflation Play?</h2>
With Japan&#8217;s inflationary prospects, driven by negative real rates and a weaker yen, the "BoJ trade" remains a potential winner for investors willing to bet on Japan's evolving economic landscape. 
But with market fluctuations and global risks, the outlook remains mixed. As Panigirtzoglou states, the trajectory of the trade hinges largely on the BoJ's decisions in the coming months—investors are closely watching to see if the central bank will wait or take action.
The iShares MSCI Japan ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EWJ#NYSE">EWJ</a>), the JPMorgan BetaBuilders Japan ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BBJP#NYSE">BBJP</a>) and the WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DXJ#NYSE">DXJ</a>) are popular ways to get exposure to Japanese equity.
The Invesco Currencyshares Japanese Yen Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FXY#NYSE">FXY</a>) provides exposure to the Japanese yen.
Read Next: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/24/11/42244807/dollar-snaps-8-week-winning-streak-falls-to-1-month-low-versus-yen-as-traders-brace-for-bojs-interest-rate-hike">Dollar Snaps 8-Week Winning Streak, Falls To 1-Month Low Versus Yen As Traders Brace For Bank Of Japan Interest Rate Hike</a></li>
</ul>
Image: Shutterstock

Trump Policies To Kick BoJ Trade Back Into Gear: Is Japan The New Inflation Play?

The U.S. dollar is poised to end an eight-week winning streak with its worst weekly drop since mid-August, as resilient European currencies and a surging Japanese yen <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/forex">pull the greenback lower. </a>
A currency-weighted gauge of the dollar, tracked by the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>), has declined more than 1.4% this week, signaling a shift in market sentiment against the greenback.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">A Softening Dollar Amid Tariff Threats</h3>
Despite looming trade tariff threats from President-elect Donald Trump, the dollar has struggled to maintain its upward momentum. Trump recently reiterated his commitment to imposing <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/24/11/42178994/trump-says-he-will-impose-25-tariffs-on-canada-mexico-on-first-day-of-office-and-extra-tariffs-on-china-until-they-pay-attention">a 25% tariff on goods</a> from Mexico and Canada and an additional 10% on imports from China. Yet these aggressive trade policies failed to buoy the U.S. currency.
This week, the dollar fell 1.3% against both the euro and the British pound, but its steepest declines were against the Japanese yen. 
The yen, tracked by the Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FXY#NYSE">FXY</a>), gained significant ground amid speculation that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) could announce an interest rate hike in December.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Dollar-Yen Pair Slumps As BoJ Rate Hike Looms</h3>
The dollar-yen pair dropped to the 150 level on Friday morning, marking a 1% decline during the session and extending its weekly loss to 3%. This marks the pair's lowest levels since October 21.
The catalyst for the yen&#8217;s rally came from Thursday&#8217;s release of Tokyo's November Consumer Price Index (CPI), which surpassed expectations. 
The headline inflation rate rose 2.6% year-over-year (YoY), beating forecasts of 2.2% and up sharply from October's 1.8%. Core inflation also climbed to 1.9% YoY, in line with projections but higher than the prior month's 1.8%.
Japan's October retail sales and industrial production data also indicated steady economic growth, reinforcing the narrative of an improving economy.
Masato Koike, senior economist at Sompo Institute Plus, told Reuters that increases in consumer prices have also spilled over to services-related items, which is &#8220;positive news for the BoJ in normalizing policy."
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Analysts See BoJ Tightening Path</h3>
The stronger-than-expected inflation data has fueled expectations of a December rate hike by the BoJ. 
According to BBVA forex analyst Alejandro Cuadrado, the Tokyo inflation numbers have significantly increased the likelihood of policy action by the BoJ on Dec. 19.
"The market is currently pricing in a 60% probability of a 15-basis-point hike to bring the reference policy rate to 0.4%," Cuadrado said.
Cuadrado also emphasized the importance of the U.S.-Japan yield differential, which could drive further yen gains in the medium term. 
He added, "The BoJ will continue to raise rates, while we also think that the market could now be slightly more hawkish about what the Fed may ultimately do."
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Why the Dollar-Yen Exchange Rate Matters for Stocks</h3>
The dollar-yen exchange rate has proven to be a critical barometer of global risk sentiment, particularly during periods of heightened market volatility. This dynamic was on full display over the summer, when abrupt yen appreciations in early August triggered sharp sell-offs across global equity markets.
Traders were unnerved by the prospect of an unexpected monetary tightening by the BoJ, fearing it could unravel large speculative positions — the so-called &#8216;carry trade&#8217; — that had bet on a widening interest rate differential between the Fed and the BoJ.
Such a scenario would have seen significant liquidity flow back into the yen, reducing capital availability for riskier assets like stocks.
Between Aug. 2 and Aug. 5, the Nasdaq 100 — tracked by the Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>) — had tumbled by a cumulative 8% in three sessions, registering its worst 3-day performance in over two years.
Check Out:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/24/11/42225506/canada-prepares-retaliatory-tariffs-as-trumps-threat-looms-analysts-warn-of-further-loonie-weakness">Canada Prepares Retaliatory Tariffs After Trump Threats: Analysts Warn Of Further Loonie Weakness</a></li>
</ul>
Image: Shutterstock

Tech

PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund

Dollar Snaps 8-Week Winning Streak, Falls To 1-Month Low Versus Yen As Traders Brace For Bank Of Japan Interest Rate Hike

The Japanese Yen, as tracked by the Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FXY#NYSE">FXY</a>), weakened past 153.20 per U.S. dollar on Monday, marking its lowest <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/japan">level since late July 2024. </a>
The decline follows a significant political shakeup over the weekend, as Japan&#8217;s ruling coalition – the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its partner Komeito – lost its majority in the Lower House General Election. 
This unexpected result has fueled investor concerns about Japan&#8217;s future fiscal and monetary policy direction, contributing to the yen's slide, which is already weakening 6.2% in October. 
This negative performance is on par with April 2022, and with three days remaining, any further decline would mark the yen's worst monthly drop since November 2016.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Chart: Japanese Yen Eyes For Worst Monthly Drop Since November 2016</h3>
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="418" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/28155136/image-285-1024x418.png" alt="" class="wp-image-618018" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/28155136/image-285-1024x418.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/28155136/image-285-300x123.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/28155136/image-285-768x314.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/28155136/image-285-1536x627.png 1536w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/28155136/image-285.png 1920w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption"><a href="https://bzresearch.myclickfunnels.com/benzinga-pro-content-webinar-registration/?utm_source=BZprocontent102824&amp;t=be2bearmibe3na1">Benzinga Pro</a></figcaption></figure>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Political Uncertainty Adds Pressure On Yen</h2>
&#8220;The ruling LDP and its coalition partner lost their majority in the lower house, raising concerns about the shape and policy direction of the next government,&#8221; wrote Scotiabank in a research note on Monday.
Goldman Sachs analyst Tomohiro Ota highlighted that the weakened political position of the ruling coalition could lead to calls for more fiscal expansion, as some opposition parties advocate increased government spending. 
However, he cautioned, &#8220;we do not think the election result would bring major fiscal and monetary policy change.&#8221; Instead, Ota suggests that the ruling coalition's "administrative power has inevitably become more fragile."
&#8220;We see likelihood of pressure building towards more fiscal expansion, given that some opposition parties advocate this,&#8221; Ota added.
BBVA's chief strategist Alejandro Cuadrado indicated that the political shifts could also delay any monetary tightening by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). 
"Investors felt that the LDP's ruling coalition losing its parliamentary majority could delay the BoJ&#8217;s next rate hike," Cuadrado wrote in a report.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">US-Japan Yield Gap Widens Ahead Of BoJ Meeting</h3>
The widening interest rate differential between U.S. and Japanese bonds has also been a key driver of yen&#8217;s recent weakness. 
The yield gap between 10-year U.S. Treasuries and Japanese government bonds expanded from 2.75% in early Sept. to 3.30% as of Oct. 28. Short-term differentials have also risen, with the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield gap over its Japanese counterpart increasing from 3.15% to 3.68% over the past six weeks. 
The widening yield advantage is making the U.S. dollar increasingly attractive to investors, adding downward pressure on the yen and bolstering yen-dollar carry trade strategies.
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is set to meet on Thursday, but analysts are not expecting any immediate policy changes. 
Luca Cigognini, a market strategist at Intesa Sanpaolo, highlighted that the political situation could impact the BoJ&#8217;s policy decisions. 
"Forming a new government becomes more complicated, and the effects could also be seen on the BoJ, which may avoid tightening monetary policy in the future," Cigognini wrote.
ING analyst Chris Turner, however, expects that a December rate hike could still be on the table and suggested investors not to chase yen-dollar carry trade opportunities ahead of volatile weeks due to U.S. elections. 
&#8220;The market sees very little chance of a rate hike this week from the Bank of Japan,&#8221; he said, adding that the political turbulence may add a layer of caution to the BoJ's approach.
&#8220;With volatility likely to rise further into next week (exactly the wrong conditions for the carry trade), we do not favour chasing USD/JPY higher from these levels,&#8221; he added. 
Read now: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/10/41581488/is-s-p-500-headed-for-a-lost-decade-analysts-say-we-may-have-forgotten-about-divide">Is S&amp;P 500 Headed For A Lost Decade? Analysts Say &#8216;We May Have Forgotten About Dividends&#8217;</a></li>
</ul>
Image: Unsplash

Japanese Yen Hits 3-Month Low Against Dollar, Eyes Worst Month In 8 Years As Political Uncertainty Rises In Japan

Economic activity in the U.S. services sector continued to expand in September, as the Services PMI reached 54.9%, its highest level since February 2023, <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/pmi">marking a robust recovery</a>.
According to the Services ISM Report On Business released on Thursday, this increase of 3.4 percentage points from August's 51.5% reflects strong growth in business activity and new orders. 
The report raises concerns about how it may influence upcoming Federal Reserve rate cuts. With the services sector expanding for 49 of the last 52 months, the data suggests resilient demand, which could influence the Fed's decision on the size of the anticipated November cut.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders now see a 65.6% probability of a 25-basis point rate cut in November, with a 34.4% chance of a 50-basis point cut.
Also on Thursday, the S&amp;P Global US Services PMI Business Activity Index posted 55.2 in September. That&#8217;s slightly down from 55.7 in August. This marked the 20th consecutive month of expansion in services activity. New orders continued to rise solidly, although input prices increased at the joint-fastest pace in a year, driven by salary pressures and higher costs for manufactured goods.
Employment dropped for the second month, but companies remained cautious about hiring due to strong cost pressures. Business confidence declined sharply to its lowest level since October 2022 as concerns about an economic slowdown grew.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">September ISM Services PMI Report: Key Highlights</h3>
<ul>
<li>The Services PMI rose to 54.9% in September, the highest reading since February 2023.</li>
<li>Business activity expanded significantly, with the Business Activity Index climbing to 59.9%.</li>
<li>The New Orders Index increased to 59.4%, up from 53% in August.</li>
<li>The Employment Index contracted to 48.1%, down from 50.2% in August.</li>
<li>The Supplier Deliveries Index returned to expansion, hitting 52.1%.</li>
<li>Panelists expressed concerns over political uncertainty and labor costs, despite positive supply chain improvements.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Experts React To September Data</h3>
Steve Miller, chair of the ISM Services Business Survey Committee, highlighted the continued expansion in services. "Twelve industries reported growth in September, up two from the 10 industries reporting growth in August,&#8221; he said.
&#8220;The Supplier Deliveries Index returned to expansion in September, indicating slower delivery performance,&#8221; Miller added. &#8220;The stronger growth indicated by the index data was generally supported by panelists' comments; however, concerns over political uncertainty are more prevalent than last month&#8221;
Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence, said, &#8220;U.S. service sector businesses reported a strong end to the third quarter, with output continuing to grow at one of the fastest rates seen over the past two-and-a-half years.&#8221; 
Still, he also noted that &#8220;companies have become increasingly concerned about the outlook… with business confidence slumping in September amid uncertainty caused by the upcoming election as well as perceptions of rising recession risks.&#8221;
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Market Reactions</h3>
Markets were trading lower on Thursday following the data release.
The S&amp;P 500, tracked by the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>), was trading 0.5% lower.
The U.S. dollar index (DXY), tracked by the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>), was up 0.31%
Other major asset movements following the ISM Services PMI print included: 
<ul>
<li>The Nasdaq 100, as monitored through the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>), was down 0.3%.</li>
<li>The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>), tracking long-dated Treasuries, was down 0.63%.</li>
<li>Gold, as tracked by the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>), was down 0.3%.</li>
</ul>
Image created using artificial intelligence via Midjourney.

iShares Trust Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund

Services Sector Surges In September, Raising Questions For Fed's November Rate Cut

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/2024-10-01_08h10_05.png" alt="" style="width:624px" /></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Important Data Ahead</h3>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-market-dip-powell-blind-money-spy-mc-10012024">click here</a> for an enalrged chart of SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&amp;P 500 (SPX).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>The chart shows the dip in the market caused by Powell's remarks. Powell pushed back against aggressive rate cut bets that the momo crowd has placed. Powell clearly said that the Fed plans on two 25 bps cuts this year assuming the economy stays on the expected trajectory. The momo crowd is counting on 100 bps cut. Even non-momo investors are betting on 75 bps cuts.</li>
<li>The chart shows the dip on Powell's remarks was aggressively bought, running the stock market higher than where it was before Powell's remarks. The buying appears to be related to quarter end window dressing.</li>
<li>Momo gurus' new narrative to persuade their followers to buy stocks is to not trust the Fed.&nbsp; Prudent investors always need to be mindful that momo gurus' interest is not the same as prudent investors' best interest.</li>
<li>There are two important pieces of data ahead.
<ul>
<li>JOLTS job openings data will be released at 10am ET.</li>
<li>ISM Manufacturing index will also be released at 10am ET.</li>
<li>Both of these pieces of data may be market moving.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>The most important economic data this week is the jobs report, also known as the mother of all reports, that will be released at 8:30am ET on Friday.</li>
<li>Expect blind money to flow into the stock market today and tomorrow.&nbsp; Blind money is the money that flows into the stock market on the first two days of the month without any analysis irrespective of market conditions.</li>
<li>East coast port workers have gone on strike. FedEx Corp (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FDX#NYSE">FDX</a>) is a beneficiary.  As full disclosure, FDX was recently added to the portfolio that surrounds the Core Model Portfolio in The Arora Report&#8217;s ZYX Buy, taking advantage of the dip on earnings.  The Arora Report utilizes over 50 different strategies. FDX belongs to the strategy of earnings patterns that historically work. </li>
<li>In important news for prudent investors, Michael Dell has sold $1.22B in Dell Technologies Inc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DELL#NYSE">DELL</a>) shares.&nbsp; Michael Dell is taking advantage of the run up in Dell shares on the AI frenzy.&nbsp; The momo crowd is oblivious and has been an aggressive buyer of DELL stock.</li>
<li>Prudent investors should also note that there is a consistent pattern of insiders selling AI stocks that have run up.&nbsp; It is important to pay attention to the protection band as well as to separate articles indicating putting on hedges or taking partial profits.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Japan</h3>
Japan's new prime minister is likely to favor tighter fiscal policy and tighter monetary policy.  Such tighter policies will be good for the Japanese yen.  As full disclosure, there is a position in yen using Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FXY#NYSE">FXY</a>) in The Arora Report&#8217;s ZYX Allocation.  On the negative side, tighter fiscal and monetary policies in Japan increase the risk to the carry trade.  Lately, in the carry trade, funds have been borrowing in yen and investing in U.S. stocks, especially AI stocks.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h3>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>), Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>), NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>), and Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>), Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>), and Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are mixed in (SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h3>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.  Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.  The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).  The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).  The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h3>
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) is range bound.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h3>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h3>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

General

$BTC

AAPL

AMZN

DELL

GOOG

MSFT

NVDA

TSLA

Powell Stock Market Drip Aggressively Bought, Important Data And Blind Money Ahead

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/2024-09-27_08h59_50.png" alt="" style="width:624px" /></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Spending Disappointment</h3>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-market-spending-disappointment-boj-carry-trade-smci-mc-09272024">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of Super Micro Computer Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SMCI#NASDAQ">SMCI</a>).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>This article is about the big picture, not an individual stock. The chart of SMCI stock is being used to illustrate the point.</li>
<li>A fortune is to be made in artificial intelligence, but it is not going to be in a straight line. At times, it is going to be treacherous.  It is important to not make mistakes by getting carried away with the momo crowd and listening to momo gurus who have a vested interest that is not your best interest.</li>
<li>The chart shows that momo crowd favorite SMCI fell yesterday on the news of a Department of Justice (DOJ) probe due to allegations of accounting irregularities. A DOJ probe is a serious matter as it is often a criminal probe.</li>
<li>The chart shows that the enthusiasm was at its peak right after SMCI stock was added to S&amp;P 500.</li>
<li>The chart shows from the peak to the low, the stock lost 69% of its value.</li>
<li>The chart shows that the day S&amp;P 500 added SMCI stock, The Arora Report made a bold call. The Arora Report call was that SMCI was worth only $442 &#8211; $486 in the best case. The stock peaked at $1229.  As of this writing in the premarket, SMCI stock is trading at $400.95.  All Arora Report calls are 100% transparent, traceable, and auditable. Members have access to over ten years of archives, including the winners and losers – no cherry picking.</li>
<li>Right now, the momo crowd is sitting on massive losses in SMCI stock. The momo crowd was not able to distinguish between NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>) and Super Micro Computer – the prevailing belief among the momo crowd was that NVDA and SMCI were the same.</li>
<li>The U.S. economy is 70% consumer based. For this reason, prudent investors pay attention to personal income and personal spending.  Just released personal income and spending data is disappointing.  Here are the details of the new personal income and spending data:
<ul>
<li>Personal income came at 0.2% vs. 0.4% consensus.</li>
<li>Personal spending came at 0.2% vs. 0.3% consensus.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>PCE is the Fed&#8217;s favorite inflation gauge.&nbsp; Here are the details:
<ul>
<li>PCE came at 0.1% vs. 0.1% consensus.</li>
<li>Core PCE came at 0.1% vs. 0.2% consensus.</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, the data is in line with expectations. As such, this data should have no impact on the stock market.</li>
<li>Even though the stock market pays a lot of attention to PCE, in The Arora Report analysis, economists have become really good at projecting PCE.&nbsp; As such, investors&#8217; expectations, in general, should be that PCE will come in line with consensus.</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Japan</h3>
Bank of Japan (BOJ) actions are very important for U.S. investors. The reason is the carry trade.  In carry trade, funds borrow in yen and invest in the U.S. stock market. Lately, they have been buying AI stocks. Japan's ruling party LDP has chosen Shigeru Ishiba as its new leader. Ishiba is the next prime minister of Japan. In The Arora Report analysis, yen is rallying on the news as Ishiba is a supporter of BOJ.
In The Arora Report analysis, this development is negative for the carry trade and positive for the yen position using ETF Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FXY#NYSE">FXY</a>) in The Arora Report&#8217;s ZYX Allocation.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h3>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>), Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>), Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>), and Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>), Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>), and NVDA.
In the early trade, money flows are positive in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h3>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.  Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.  The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).  The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).  The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h3>
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) is on track to have the best September ever.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h3>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h3>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

Market Summary

SMCI

Personal Income And Spending Disappoint, Super Micro Computer Lesson, BOJ Supporter As Japan PM

The U.S. dollar plunged to a 17-month low against the Chinese yuan after the Federal Reserve slashed rates as the People&#8217;s Bank of China held them steady overnight, raising pressures on interest-rate divergences between the <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/china">world&#8217;s two major economies. </a>
The People Bank of China (PBoC) opted to hold the one-year loan prime rate (LPR)—a critical benchmark for most corporate and household loans—at 3.35% during its September fixing. The five-year LPR, a reference for property mortgages, also remained steady at 3.85%.
According to the latest monetary report, China's economy grew by 5% year over year in the first half of 2024, showing resilience despite a complex global environment.
Inflation remained subdued, with the consumer price index (CPI) increasing by just 0.1% year-over-year. The central bank noted that while economic performance was stable, domestic issues such as &#8220;insufficient effective demand&#8221; and &#8220;the transition to new growth drivers&#8221; continue to challenge the economy.
The PBoC&#8217;s accommodative monetary stance is designed to provide necessary financial support for a sustainable economic recovery. However, it highlighted that external conditions remain &#8220;complex, grim, and uncertain,&#8221; contributing to a cautious approach to navigating headwinds.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Chinese Stock Market Performance</h3>
Chinese domestic stocks, as tracked by the Shanghai Composite Total Return Index, closed flat for the day, reflecting market uncertainty. However, offshore Chinese stocks fared better, with Hong Kong-listed entities, tracked via the iShares MSCI Hong Kong Index Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EWH#NYSE">EWH</a>), advancing by more than 1%.
In U.S. premarket trading, major Chinese stocks listed on American exchanges also saw gains:
<ul>
<li>XPeng Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XPEV#NYSE">XPEV</a>): +3.3%</li>
<li>Li Auto Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/LI#NASDAQ">LI</a>): +1.5%</li>
<li>Alibaba Group Holdings Ltd. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BABA#NYSE">BABA</a>): +1.3%</li>
<li>Tencent Music Entertainment Group (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TME#NYSE">TME</a>): +0.8%</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bank of Japan Holds Rates; Yen Slips</h3>
In Eastern Asia, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) also held interest rates steady at 0.25%, aligning with market expectations. 
Japan's economy showed a moderate recovery, though signs of weakness were observed in certain sectors, according to the BoJ statement.
On the inflation front, Japan's core CPI (excluding fresh food) has risen by 2.5-3.0% year-over-year, driven by wage increases and moderate price hikes in services.
Following this announcement, the Japanese yen, tracked by the Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FXY#NYSE">FXY</a>), fell by over 1% against the U.S. dollar. Meanwhile, Japanese equities rallied, with the Nikkei 225 index, as represented by the iShares MSCI Japan Index Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EWJ#NYSE">EWJ</a>), surging by 1.5% after a 3% gain in the earlier session.
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Photo: Shutterstock

Global

BABA

XPEV

Interest Rate Divergence Weakens Dollar To 17-Month Low Against Yuan: XPeng, Li Auto Among 4 Stock Movers

The world's leading central banks have opened a fresh phase of interest rate cuts, spurred by a softening in<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/inflation"> inflation across advanced economies.</a>
With inflation sliding closer to target levels, policymakers are keen to unwind some of the policy restrictiveness that's become a drag on growth. 
But a significant outlier on the global monetary scene is raising eyebrows—and concerns—for an interest-rate-fueled rally in the stock market.
On Thursday, the European Central Bank (ECB) took its turn, delivering a second 25 basis point rate cut following a similar move in June. 
While ECB President Christine Lagarde stopped short of promising more cuts, she hinted that future decisions would be data-driven. 
However, Frankfurt doesn't have the luxury of dragging its feet: growth is already on life support, and Germany, the region's economic heavyweight, is teetering on the edge of a recession.
"We still think that data will end up pushing the ECB to accelerate the cutting cycle," said Bank of America's European economist Ruben Segura-Cayuela in a post-meeting note.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Global Central Banks In Sync, Almost</h3>
Earlier this month, the Bank of Canada trimmed its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.25%. Policymakers there flagged concerns about missing their inflation targets on the downside—something that would have been unthinkable just a year ago, when inflation overshoot was the name of the game.
Meanwhile, an interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve next week is practically a done deal. 
The only questions lingering for markets now are the magnitude and pace: Will the Fed cut by 25 or 50 basis points? Will it move at every meeting or take a more gradual, every-other-meeting approach?
The Bank of England remains a tight call, with economists forecasting a razor-thin 5-4 vote in favor of a rate cut next week.
"At this stage, markets are only discussing the magnitude and sequencing of this cut and those to follow. But regardless of the outcome, global monetary policy convergence is set to begin," Bank of America economist Antonio Gabriel noted recently.
According to Bank of America this newfound global monetary coordination is likely to weaken the dollar from its historically elevated levels, but any dollar decline could be tempered by potential U.S. policy shifts after the upcoming election. 
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">The Bank of Japan&#8217;s Outlier Stance: A Wildcard For Markets</h3>
The one glaring outlier in this synchronized easing spree? The Bank of Japan (BOJ). 
Tokyo has clearly decided it's not playing by the same rulebook. 
While the world's major central banks are cutting, the BOJ hiked rates in July—its second hike this year following a move in March—and signaled that more hikes could be on the horizon. With annual inflation running at 2.8%, well above the BOJ's 2% target, Japan's monetary policy looks set on a divergent path.
BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterated earlier this month that the BOJ would continue raising rates if the economy and inflation behave as expected.
Ed Yardeni, the veteran market strategist, weighed in on this divergence, pointing to the ripple effects it's having across markets: "The carry trade is still unwinding. Expectations that the Fed will lower rates while the BOJ continues to hike have boosted the yen, forcing traders to unwind their carry trades."
For those not fluent in financial jargon, the carry trade refers to the strategy of borrowing yen at near-zero interest rates to invest in higher-yielding assets elsewhere, such as long-term Treasuries or even stocks. Now, with the yen appreciating, those trades are being unwound, sparking a rout in some of the market&#8217;s most richly valued stocks.
Yardeni highlighted a key inverse correlation between the yen and the Nasdaq 100, which has been holding since the start of the year.
Whenever the Japanese currency, as tracked by the Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FXY#NYSE">FXY</a>), strengthens, the latter, as monitored through the Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>), weakens. 
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Chart: Inverse Relationship Between Japanese Yen And U.S. Tech Stocks</h3>
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="442" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/12154252/image-101-1024x442.png" alt="" class="wp-image-545503" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/12154252/image-101-1024x442.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/12154252/image-101-300x129.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/12154252/image-101-768x331.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/12154252/image-101-1536x662.png 1536w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/12154252/image-101.png 1920w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Image: <a href="https://bzresearch.myclickfunnels.com/benzinga-pro-content-webinar-registration/?utm_source=BZprocontent091224&amp;t=be2bearmibe3na1">Benzinga Pro</a></figcaption></figure>
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Image created using artificial intelligence via Midjourney.

Equities

Eurozone

Major Central Banks Slash Rates In Sync, But One Holdout Threatens To Derail Bulls' Momentum: 'Carry Trade Is Still Unwinding'

The U.S. Treasury market rallied sharply on Friday after August labor data showed weaker-than-expected job growth, bolstering bets on Federal Reserve <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/interest-rates">interest rate cuts. </a>
The U.S. economy added 142,000 nonfarm payrolls last month, an increase from 89,000 in July but missing the expected increase to 160,000. The unemployment rate ticked down by 0.1% to 4.3% as expected, while wages displayed higher-than-forecasted growth.
Market-implied odds of a 50-basis-point rate cut in September surged to 61% as of 11:05 a.m. in New York, overtaking the 39% probability of a 25-basis-point cut, according to the CME Group&#8216;s FedWatch data.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">September Rate-Cut Probabilities After August Jobs Data</h3>
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>September Rate Cut</td>
<td>Now&#x2A;</td>
<td>1 day ago (Sept. 5, 2024)</td>
<td>1 Week ago (Aug. 30, 2024)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>50 basis points (0.5%)</td>
<td>61%</td>
<td>40%</td>
<td>30%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>25 basis points (0.25%)</td>
<td>39%</td>
<td>60%</td>
<td>70%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<figcaption class="wp-element-caption">&#x2A; Data as of Sept. 6, 2024 11:05 a.m. ET, CME FedWatch</figcaption></figure>
Traders poured into bonds amid growing expectations of declining interest rates, driving yields sharply lower across the Treasury curve.
The policy-sensitive two-year yield dropped over 10 basis points, reaching 3.59% at 11:15 a.m. in New York, its lowest level since March 2023.
The 10-year Treasury yield fell 6 basis points to 3.67%, marking its lowest point since June 2023.
This movement has led to a positive slope in the Treasury yield curve from the 10-year onward, effectively ending the more than two-year period of yield curve inversion.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Chart: US Yield Curve Normalizes, Ending 2-Year Inversion</h3>
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="508" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/06112245/image-57-1024x508.png" alt="" class="wp-image-534918" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/06112245/image-57-1024x508.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/06112245/image-57-300x149.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/06112245/image-57-768x381.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/06112245/image-57-1536x762.png 1536w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/06112245/image-57.png 1920w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Market Reactions</h3>
Rate-cut expectations and falling Treasury yields triggered sharp moves across asset classes, with bonds rallying, the dollar weakening against the yen and equity markets sliding.
&#8220;No sooner than the payroll print hit, the algorithms marched into high gear, pushing Treasury yields lower as the disappointing headline number, coupled with a series of downward revisions, suggested a more dire economic backdrop perhaps requiring a heavier dose of Fed medicine on Sept. 18,&#8221; said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist for LPL Financial.
Markets are wrestling with whether the August payroll data signals a labor market returning to pre-COVID norms or an economy losing critical momentum, Krosby said. 
<ul>
<li>Treasury-related ETFs surged, with the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) rising 1.1% to $100.65, on pace for its highest close since late July 2023.</li>
<li>The Japanese yen strengthened as well, with the Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FXY#NYSE">FXY</a>) gaining over 1%, poised to close at its highest level since early January 2024.</li>
<li>Volatility spiked, as the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) jumped 14% to 23.</li>
<li>Wall Street flipped to the red, with the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) dropping 1.5% on Friday, extending its weekly decline to 3.9%, on track for the worst weekly performance since March 2023.</li>
<li>Tech stocks were hit hardest, with the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>) down 2.4%, pushing its weekly loss past 5%.</li>
<li>Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>) tumbled 4%, extending its weekly loss to 14%, its worst performance in two years.</li>
</ul>
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Photo via Shutterstock.

Bonds

Treasury Yields Plunge, TLT ETF Tops $100, VIX Spikes As 50-Basis-Point Rate Cut Odds Soar In Response To Jobs Data

Lower-than-expected private employment growth in August triggered positive reactions Thursday in interest rate-sensitive assets like gold and the Japanese yen, while pushing Treasury yields lower as traders bolster their bets on a 50-basis-point rate cut by the <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/interest-rates">Federal Reserve this month.</a>
U.S. private employers added 99,000 jobs in August, the lowest reading since January 2021 and down from a downwardly revised 111,000 in July, the ADP <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/24/09/40728795/private-employment-grows-by-99-000-in-august-sharply-misses-forecasts-of-140-000-">National Employment report revealed. </a>
The outcome fell short of the predicted 140,000, highlighting a surprising cooling in labor market conditions last month.
While weekly jobless claims were in line with expectations and offered little new insight, signs of further weakness in the labor market surfaced in the Challenger Job Report, which recorded 75,891 job cuts in August — a sharp 193% increase from the 25,885 cuts in July.
A day earlier, official statistics revealed that job openings fell to 7.673 million in July,&nbsp;the lowest in over three years, with vacancies now almost closing the gap with <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/24/09/40711148/july-job-openings-fall-to-3-year-lows-gap-with-unemployment-narrows-to-near-parit">the level of unemployment. </a>
Following the slew of Thursday&#8217;s labor market data, market-implied probabilities for a 50-basis-point cut surged to 45%, as per CME Group&#8216;s FedWatch tool, ahead of the highly anticipated official jobs report on Friday.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Market Reactions</h3>
Treasury yields moved lower across the board, with the policy-sensitive two-year yield down by 3 basis points to 3.72%, hitting the lowest yield in a month.
The benchmark 10-year yield dropped to 3.73%, marking its lowest level in a month. It also officially surpassed the two-year yield for the first time since July 2022, marking the end of the U.S. yield curve inversion.
In premarket trading, the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) was 0.3% higher at 9:00 a.m. in New York, after closing 1.3% higher on Wednesday.
The Japanese yen rose against the dollar, amid narrowing yield differentials between the two regions. The Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FXY#NYSE">FXY</a>) was 0.4% higher. 
Gold prices rallied on the back of disappointing employment data, with the commodity surging to $2,515 per ounce. The SPDR Gold Trust ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>) was up by 0.9%.
U.S. major indices are set to open slightly in the red, with S&amp;P 500 futures down 0.1% and Nasdaq 100 futures slipping 0.3%.
Sector-wise, technology stocks, as tracked by the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLK#NYSE">XLK</a>), lagged, down 0.6%. Utilities, as tracked by the Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLU#NYSE">XLU</a>), strengthened the most, up 0.7%. 
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Illustration created using artificial intelligence via Midjourney.

Commodities

Gold Rallies, Yen Surges, Treasury Yields Fall As Disappointing Payrolls Data Supports Large Rate-Cut Bets

The Japanese yen sent shockwaves through the markets at the start of September, triggering alarms for traders already on edge in what is shaping up to be <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/24/09/40676774/september-market-seasonality-why-this-month-is-historically-the-toughest-for-investors">a highly volatile month.</a>
The yen, as tracked by the Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FXY#NYSE">FXY</a>), appreciated over 0.9% by 11:30 a.m. ET, fueled by hawkish remarks overnight from Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda and disappointing U.S. manufacturing data.
In a parliamentary speech Tuesday, Ueda reaffirmed that the central bank would continue to raise interest rates if the economy and inflation evolve as expected. Ueda reiterated that the economic environment remains accommodative, despite the July rate hike, as real interest rates continue to be significantly negative.
&#8220;Traders hoping for a dovish pivot didn't get it,&#8221; said analyst Michael Gayed.
According to Gayed, with the Federal Reserve likely to cut rates by 75-100 basis points by the end of the year and the BoJ potentially hiking at least once more during the same period, the interest rate gap could narrow significantly.
Gayed also added, &#8220;This could ultimately trigger the next rally for the yen and potentially drive stock prices higher in the longer term.&#8221;
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">US Manufacturing Sector Contracts, Analysts See Mixed Yen Performance</h3>
In August, the U.S. manufacturing sector remained in a contractionary phase for the fifth consecutive month. However, the pace of decline eased slightly compared to July, according to the <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/24/09/40689835/us-manufacturing-activity-extends-contraction-for-fifth-month-demand-continues-to">Institute for Supply Management (ISM)</a>.
&#8220;This should be positive news for equities and keeps the door open for more rate cuts,&#8221; said Gina Bolvin, president of Bolvin Wealth Management Group.
Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, commented, &#8220;Manufacturing employment contracted for the third consecutive month as activity in the sector slowed. While manufacturing now represents a smaller portion of the macroeconomy than in previous cycles, investors should still prepare for a broader slowdown throughout the remainder of the year.&#8221;
Treasury yields fell sharply following Tuesday&#8217;s data release. The yield on the 10-year bond fell 7 basis points to 3.85%. 
Bloomberg reported that Arif Husain, head of fixed income at T. Rowe Price, expects further volatility as the yen-dollar carry trade unwinds, predicting more episodes similar to the one seen in early August.
Husain believes the yen is on an appreciating trend due to Japan&#8217;s ongoing structural transformation, driven by demographic shifts. He also highlighted that persistent inflation is likely to accelerate corporate reforms and influence household asset allocation.
&#8220;The ideal macro environment for yen appreciation usually occurs when U.S. real rates and equities decline together, typically during a U.S. recession,&#8221; said Kamakshya Trivedi, an economist at Goldman Sachs.
Contrarily, Daysuke Takato, an economist at Bank of America, argued, &#8220;The yen&#8217;s weakness has been driven by two main factors: the interest rate differentials between Japan and the rest of the world, and structural capital outflows from Japan.
While the potential for further yen depreciation may be limited in the short term, we believe the yen will resume its downtrend by year-end, as structural outflows persist.&#8221;
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/09/40689742/goldman-sachs-bullish-on-gold-wall-street-giant-targets-2-700-by-early-2025-driven-">Goldman Sachs Bullish On Gold: Wall Street Giant Targets $2,700 By Early 2025, Driven By Geopolitical Risks, Fed Rate Cuts</a></li>
</ul>
Image: Shutterstock

Japanese Yen Rallies On Bank Of Japan's Rate Hike Pledge, US Manufacturing Activity Contraction

The U.S. dollar, oil prices and tech stocks surged Thursday following an upward revision of the second-quarter real gross domestic product growth to 3%, signaling the continued strength<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/24/08/40624663/us-economy-expands-by-3-in-q2-surpasses-earlier-estimates-jobless-claims-little-moved-last-week"> of the U.S. economy.</a>
More defensive assets like bonds and the Japanese yen fell as expectations for interest rate cuts were slightly tempered.
What Happened: The U.S. economy continues to display robust health, boasting a notable real GDP growth rate of 3% in the second quarter, revised higher from the initial estimate of 2.8% on Thursday. This represents more than double the 1.4% growth recorded in the first quarter, marking the eighth consecutive quarter of sequential growth for the U.S. economy.
The boost was primarily driven by consumer spending, which surged by 2.9% in the second quarter, an upward revision from the previously reported 2.3% and significantly higher than the 1.5% growth in the first quarter. Corporate profits also showed improvement, flipping from a 2.7% contraction in the first quarter to a 1.7% expansion in the second.
Positive signs also emerged from price pressures, as Personal Consumption Expenditure prices were revised downward in the second estimate.
The revised data also included downward adjustments to nonresidential fixed investment (4.6% vs. 5.2% earlier reported), exports (1.6% vs. 2%), private inventory investment (7.5% vs. 8.4%), government spending at both federal (3.3% vs. 3.9%) and local (2.3% vs. 2.6%) levels, and residential fixed investment (negative 2% vs. negative 1.4%). Imports were adjusted slightly higher (7% vs. 6.9%).
Why It Matters: The resilience of the U.S. economy reduces recession risks that had surfaced earlier this month following a cooler-than-expected July jobs report. 
For markets sensitive to domestic economic conditions, such as small- and medium-cap stocks, a healthy economy signals improved risk sentiment among investors.
The concurrent decline in price pressures bolsters the Federal Reserve&#8217;s confidence that inflation is trending toward its 2% target, paving the way for a September interest rate cut. 
The strong economic activity also represents a factor that could refrain the Fed from making large or swift rate cuts to avoid reigniting inflationary pressures.
Market-implied odds for a 50-basis-point rate cut in September slightly eased from 38% a day ago to the 32.5%, as per CME Group&#8216;s FedWatch data. 
Market Reactions:
<ul>
<li>U.S. Dollar: The U.S. Dollar Index, tracked by the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>), rallied 0.4% in response to the GDP data, building on a 0.5% gain from Wednesday.</li>
<li>Bonds: Treasury yields edged higher, causing the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) to decline by 0.5%.</li>
<li>Japanese yen: The USD-JPY pair rose 0.7% on Thursday to 145.35 levels. The Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FXY#NYSE">FXY</a>) fell 0.7%. </li>
<li>Stocks: The S&amp;P 500 as tracked by the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) was up by 0.3%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100, tracked by the Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>), climbed 0.8%, despite a 2.2% drop in Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>).</li>
<li>Sector Performance: The Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLK#NYSE">XLK</a>) led sector gains, up 0.9%.</li>
<li>Oil: The United States Oil Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>) rose by 2.2%, fully reversing Wednesday&#8217;s losses.</li>
<li>Gold: The SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>) rose 0.4% to $2,515 per ounce.</li>
</ul>
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/08/40624107/traders-brace-for-feds-favorite-inflation-report-friday-july-price-pressures-expect">Traders Brace For Fed&#8217;s Favorite Inflation Report Friday: July Price Pressures Expected To Edge Higher</a></li>
</ul>
Illustration created using artificial intelligence via MidJourney.

Select Sector SPDR-Consumer Discretionary

US Dollar, Oil Prices, Tech Stocks Rise As GDP Roars By 3% In Q2; Bonds, Yen Slip As Bets For Large Rate Cuts Ease

The dollar-yen exchange rate experienced hours of turbulence after the Bank of Japan delivered hawkish remarks overnight, just ahead of Fed Chair Jerome Powell&#8216;s highly anticipated speech at Jackson Hole, set for <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/24/08/40513380/could-powells-jackson-hole-speech-keep-the-door-open-for-50-basis-point-rate-cut">10:00 a.m. ET on Friday.</a>
During a parliamentary hearing on Friday, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterated his commitment to keep raising interest rates if inflation continues to align with the country&#8217;s 2% target, indicating that recent market volatility would not deter the bank&#8217;s long-term strategy for rate hikes.
However, Ueda warned that market jitters could influence the BoJ&#8217;s inflation forecasts, indicating that fluctuations in the yen and stock prices will be pivotal in determining the timing of the next rate hike.
&#8220;Markets at home and abroad remain unstable, so we will be highly vigilant to market developments for the time being,&#8221; Ueda stated.
This seems more in line the previous BoJ&#8217;s reassurances when earlier this month Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida had vowed not to raise interest <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/asia/24/08/40223986/traders-resume-yen-dollar-carry-trade-as-bank-of-japan-pledges-no-rate-hikes-during-market-volatilit">rates if market volatility persisted.</a>
The yen, tracked by the Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FXY#NYSE">FXY</a>), gained approximately 0.8% between 8:00 p.m. ET on Thursday and 2:50 a.m. ET on Friday, before slightly paring back those gains.
On Thursday, Japan&#8217;s latest inflation report showed that consumer prices rose by 2.8% year-over-year in July 2024, unchanged for the third straight month and holding at their highest level since February.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">A Look At The Markets, But Also At The Economy</h3>
Although Ueda stated that the BoJ is monitoring market developments, he also reiterated that if the economy shows clear evidence that prices are moving toward the target, there is no change in the central bank&#8217;s basic stance on normalizing its accommodative monetary policy.
This means that the BoJ remains committed to gradually raising borrowing costs from their current ultra-low levels.
&#8220;Japan&#8217;s short-term rates are very low. If the economy is in good shape, they will move up to levels deemed neutral,&#8221; Ueda commented, adding that there is still &#8220;very high uncertainty on where rates will eventually rise to.&#8221;
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">BoJ, Fed On Different Policy Paths</h3>
On July 31, the BoJ hiked its key short-term interest rate by 15 basis points to 0.25%, and opted to halve its bond-buying program to JPY 3 trillion from next year. 
This decision, along with unexpectedly weak U.S. economic data, triggered an unwinding of the yen-dollar carry trade. Traders who had been betting on interest-rate differentials between the Fed and the BoJ were hit hard by the rate reversal and subsequent margin calls.
The next BoJ meeting is scheduled for Sept. 20, just two days after the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. The U.S. central bank is widely expected to lower interest rates, with market-implied probabilities favoring a 25-basis-point cut. If the BoJ raises interest rates, it could deliver another blow to the dollar-yen pair, further challenging the resilience of the carry trade.
Read now: 
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/hedge-funds/24/08/40470248/hedge-funds-swap-yen-for-dollar-in-new-carry-trade-strategy-report">Hedge Funds Swap Yen For Dollar In New Carry Trade Strategy: Report</a></li>
</ul>
Image: Shutterstock

Yen-Dollar Carry Trade Shakes Ahead Of Powell's Speech As BoJ's Ueda Hints At Continued Rate Hikes

The July Consumer Price Inflation report made another step toward the Federal Reserve&#8217;s 2% target, though less pronounced than June&#8217;s, sustaining optimism for <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/inflation">imminent interest rate cuts.</a>
Last month, a basket of goods and services purchased by U.S. consumers rose by 2.9% year-over-year, slightly below the previous and expected 3%, marking the fourth consecutive decline in annual inflation and the <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/24/08/40365730/july-inflation-rate-falls-more-than-expected-supports-hopes-for-large-fed-rate-cu">lowest rate since March 2021.</a>
The annual core inflation rate also eased as anticipated, from 3.3% to 3.2%, the lowest since April 2021. 
However, the July report was marred by an increase in the shelter component, which, due to its significant weight in the basket, accounted for about 90% of the headline inflation rise.
The decline in annual inflation rates wasn&#8217;t sufficient to bolster expectations for a 50-basis-point rate cut in September. 
Market-implied probabilities for such a substantial cut dropped from 50% to 43% following the report, while the likelihood of a smaller 25-basis-point cut increased to 57%.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Market Reactions: Stocks Rise, Yields Steady, But Dollar Strengthens Against Yen</h3>
The July inflation data sparked a positive reaction in stocks, especially in the tech sector, with small caps outperforming their larger-cap counterparts. Treasury yields remained largely stable, while the U.S. dollar gained ground against the low-yielding Japanese yen.
Here are the premarket price reactions of the following exchange-traded funds (ETFs) to the inflation data:
<ul>
<li>The SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) was up 0.2% at 09:10 a.m. in New York. Major premarket gainers were Kellanova (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/K#NYSE">K</a>) and Cardinal Health Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CAH#NYSE">CAH</a>), up 7.2% and 5.5% respectively. </li>
<li>The tech-heavy Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>) rose 0.3%. Top gainers were Arm Holdings plc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ARM#NASDAQ">ARM</a>) and Micron Technology Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MU#NASDAQ">MU</a>) up 3.1% and 3%, respectively. </li>
<li>Semiconductors were the strongest-performing industry, with the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SMH#NYSE">SMH</a>) up 0.9%. Micron Technology Inc. and ASML Holding N.V. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ASML#NASDAQ">ASML</a>) led gains, with the latter up 2.1%. </li>
<li>The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IWM#NYSE">IWM</a>) rallied 0.5%, with Victoria&#8217;s Secret &amp; Co. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VSCO#NYSE">VSCO</a>) and AnaptysBio, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ANAB#NASDAQ">ANAB</a>) making the larger gains in the premarket, up 16% and 13%, respectively. </li>
<li>The Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FXY#NYSE">FXY</a>) fell 0.2%.</li>
</ul>
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Image created using artificial intelligence via Midjourney.

Large Cap

Small Cap

ANAB

ASML

VSCO

S&P 500 Rises, Small Caps Outperform As July Consumer Price Index Fuels Fed Rate Cut Hopes: 5 ETFs to Watch Wednesday

The U.S. dollar-Japanese yen exchange rate endured one of its most turbulent weeks in recent years, with sharp swings driven by pivotal economic events that have left traders reassessing the future of the <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/asia/24/08/40223986/traders-resume-yen-dollar-carry-trade-as-bank-of-japan-pledges-no-rate-hikes-during-market-volatilit">dollar-yen carry trade.</a>
The USD/JPY pair opened the week at 146.36, but quickly plunged to a low of 141.68 on Monday as traders fully priced in a 50-basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with some even speculating on an emergency intermeeting cut. 
The dollar rebounded against the yen later in the week, buoyed by dovish remarks from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and U.S. economic data that pushed back against fears of an imminent recession.
By the end of the week, the yen, as tracked by the Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FXY#NYSE">FXY</a>), has largely remained unchanged from its previous week&#8217;s close.
This volatile week has traders questioning how much carry trade positioning is left in USD/JPY and whether it&#8217;s time to re-enter the long dollar-short yen trade as a hedge against potential U.S. inflation surprises, or if shorting USD/JPY might be a more effective strategy to guard against a possible recession.
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Analyst Weigh On Yen-Dollar Carry Trade Strategy</h1>
Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist for LPL Financial, explained that &#8220;ultra-low rates and easy monetary policy made the yen an attractive funding currency for the carry trade,&#8221; where investors borrow in low-yield currencies like the yen to fund investments in higher-yielding securities elsewhere, such as U.S. Treasuries.
However, recent tightening measures from the BoJ have &#8220;pulled the proverbial thread on this crowded trade, and it started to unravel,&#8221; sparking a surge in yen buying as investors covered short positions.
According to Turnquist, estimating the size of the yen carry trade is challenging due to the opaque nature of currency positioning and transactions. The overall yen borrowing could range from $1 to $4 trillion, with recent reports suggesting that 75% of carry trades have been closed following this week&#8217;s volatility events. 
Turnquist indicated USD/JPY is no longer on an uptrend, implying that the risk of additional downsides remains elevated.
It&#8217;s too early to consider the recent rebound as anything more than a &#8220;relief rally off oversold levels.&#8221; He stated that a close below the 141 support level could signal another potential leg lower, while a rally above 152 would suggest a return to the previous uptrend, reducing carry trade volatility and downside risk.
Read Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/08/40199218/yen-carry-trade-is-only-halfway-unraveled-wall-street-analyst-says-how-much-more-ro">Yen &#8216;Carry Trade&#8217; Is Only Halfway Unraveled, Wall Street Analyst Says: How Much More Room For Traders To Get Pummeled?</a>
David Morrison, senior market analyst at Trade Nation, observed that the USD/JPY pair hit its lowest level since the beginning of the year on Monday but has since rallied nearly 4%, indicating that the market has &#8220;steadied and most of the unwinding has been completed.
However, Morrison cautioned there is still concern that &#8220;there could be more unwinding of the yen carry-trade to come.&#8221; If this occurs, it could lead to further yen strength, accelerating the unwinding process and putting additional downward pressure on risk assets.
Morrison also noted that the BoJ released minutes from its latest monetary policy meeting, where it unexpectedly tightened policy. Although the minutes suggested that further rate hikes could be on the horizon, the market largely ignored this as dovish comments from the BoJ&#8217;s deputy governor &#8220;effectively neutralized the minutes.&#8221;
Shusuke Yamada, a foreign exchange analyst at Bank of America, suggested that much of the short-term yen carry-trade unwinding &#8220;has run its course&#8221; based on positioning measures and signs of stabilization in equity markets.
However, Yamada warned that &#8220;cyclical hedgers would sell USD/JPY&#8217;s rally to hedge against a U.S. hard-landing scenario.&#8221;
Yamada also highlighted structural outflows, such as corporate foreign direct investment (FDI) and retail investors&#8217; outward equity investments, &#8220;remain intact&#8221; as these trades are not driven by short-term interest rate differentials.
Bank of America has revised its end-2024 USD/JPY forecast to 155 but maintains a &#8220;structurally bearish yen view.&#8221;
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/asia/24/08/40274194/mohamed-el-erian-slams-bank-of-japans-soft-tone-pushes-for-reduction-of-risky-yen-carry-trades">Mohamed El-Erian Slams Bank Of Japan&#8217;s Soft Tone: Pushes For Reduction Of Risky Yen Carry Trades</a></li>
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Photo: Shutterstock

Dollar-Yen Volatility Sparks Debate Over Carry Trade Positioning: 'We Maintain A Structurally Bearish Yen View,' Analyst Says

일본의 금융 시장이 변하고 있다. 월요일(10일) 일본의 10년 만기 국채 수익률이 2008년 이후 최고 수준인 1.575%까지 올랐다. 이러한 급격한 상승은 30년 만에 가장 빠른 임금 상승률을 보인 데이터에 이어 일본은행(BOJ)의 추가 금리인상에 대한 기대감을 높였다.
금리인상이 임박함에 따라 투자자들은 이러한 시장 변화를 활용하기 위해 <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs" target="_blank" rel="noopener">일본에 초점을 맞춘 ETF를</a> 평가하고 있다. 주목해야 할 주요 ETF는 다음과 같다.
<h3>iShares MSCI Japan Value ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EWJV#NASDAQ">EWJV</a>)</h3>
일반적으로 금리 상승 환경에서는 성장주보다 가치주가 더 좋은 성과를 낸다. 이 시나리오에서는 iShares MSCI Japan Value ETF에 투자하는 것이 긍정적인 결과를 가져올 수 있다. 이 ETF는 올해 들어 지금까지 7.08% 상승했다. 가치주는 차입금 의존도가 낮고 대차대조표가 튼튼하기 때문에 고금리 환경에서 좋은 성과를 내는 경향이 있다.
<h3>iShares MSCI Japan Small Cap ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SCJ#NYSE">SCJ</a>)</h3>
엔화 강세는 대형주에 비해 수출 의존도가 낮은 소형주 일본 주식에 유리할 수 있다. 이 분야에서 주목해야 할 ETF는 iShares MSCI Japan Small Cap ETF로 연초 이후 5.77% 상승했다.
그러나 소형주 투자를 선택하기 전에 투자자는 일본의 실질 임금 인상 모멘텀을 면밀히 따라야 한다. 정규 임금이 30년 만에 가장 큰 폭으로 <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-09/japan-sees-fastest-base-pay-gains-in-32-years-in-boost-for-boj?sref=TBDibEcD" target="_blank" rel="noopener">상승했지만,</a> 로이터 통신은 1월 실질 임금이 2년 만에 최고치를 기록한 인플레이션으로 인해 하락했다고 보도했다. 앞으로 몇 달 동안 명목 임금 상승률이 인플레이션을 상회하면 국내 구매력 강화로 소형주가 상승할 수 있다.
<h3>Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FXY#NYSE">FXY</a>)</h3>
현재 가능성이 높은 BOJ의 통화정책 긴축은 일본 엔화 강세로 이어질 가능성이 높다. 따라서 BOJ가 정책 스탠스를 조정하면 엔화 강세 혜택을 받을 수 있는 Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust가 현명한 투자 상품이 될 수 있다. 로이터 통신에 따르면 우에다 가즈오 BOJ 총재는 최근 국채 수익률 상승에 대해 시장이 향후 금리인상에 대한 기대감을 반영하고 있다고 말했다.
<h3>BOJ의 정책 경로와 시장 예측</h3>
일본은행은 2024년에 10년간의 통화 부양책을 종료하고 2025년 1월에 단기 금리를 0.25%에서 0.5%로 <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/econ-s/25/01/43183053/bank-of-japan-raises-interest-rates-to-pre-2008-levels-amid-trumps-tariff-uncertainties" target="_blank" rel="noopener">인상했다</a>. 이 결정은 일본이 지속 가능한 2% 인플레이션 목표를 달성하기 위한 진전에서 비롯된 것이다.
블룸버그에 따르면 JP모건 체이스는 일본 국채 10년물 수익률의 연말 전망치를 1.55%에서 1.7%로 올렸으며, 일부 투자자들은 수익률이 2%까지 오를 수 있다고 예측했다고 <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/japan-10-yield-highest-since-071046785.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">야후 파이낸스</a>는 전했다.
사진 출처: Shutterstock
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다음 주 <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/bank-of-japan" target="_blank" rel="noopener">일본은행</a>(BoJ) 회의를 앞두고 투자자 심리가 다시 &#8216;BoJ 트레이드&#8216;로 돌아서고 있다. 이는 일본 주식과 은행에 대한 롱(매수) 포지션을 취하고, 엔화와 일본 국채(JGB)를 숏(매도) 포지션으로 거래하는 전략이다.
JP모건의 애널리스트인 니콜라오스 파니기르초글로(Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou)에 따르면, 최근 BoJ가 2024년 이전에 금리를 인상할 가능성이 낮다는 보도가 있었음에도 불구하고, 이 트레이드는 특히 도널드 트럼프의 대선 승리 이후로 모멘텀을 얻었다.
엔화가 약세를 보이며 달러 대비 150엔에서 153엔으로 하락하고, 12월 금리 인상 확률이 50%에서 10%로 급락했다.
관련 기사 읽기: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/econ-s/24/11/42221646/stocks-fall-yen-eyes-best-day-in-2-months-bitcoin-rebounds-above-96000-whats-driving-markets-wednesday">주식 하락, 엔화 2개월 만에 최고 상승 기대, 비트코인 96,000달러 이상 반등: 수요일 시장 동향은?</a>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">트럼프의 영향</h2>
파니기르초글로는 투자자들이 일본 주식에 대한 롱 포지션을 늘리고, 엔화와 JGB 선물에 숏 포지션을 취하고 있다고 강조했다. 이는 엔화 약세로 인한 일본의 인플레이션 압력이 경제 활동을 촉진할 것이라고 기대했기 때문이다.
&#8220;BoJ 트레이드&#8220;는 2022년 말에 등장했으며, 일본의 지속적인 마이너스 실질 금리와 엔화 약세가 인플레이션을 촉발하고 BoJ가 명목 정책 금리를 인상할 수 있게 할 것이라는 기대에서 비롯되었다.
트럼프의 정책이 인플레이션적 측면을 강화하여 연방준비제도(연준)의 공격적인 금리 인하 가능성을 줄이면서 이 트레이드에 대한 투자자들의 관심이 다시 불붙었다.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">BoJ의 우유부단성: 혼조세를 보이는 시장 반응</h2>
9월 이후 일본 주식은 일정 범위 내에서 거래되고 있지만, 일본 은행은 엔화 약세의 혜택을 받아 성과가 좋았다.
특히 닛케이와 JGB 선물의 포지셔닝은 변동성을 보였다. 올해 초 &#8220;BoJ 트레이드&#8221;의 청산이 상당했지만, 선거 이후 포지셔닝이 급증했다. 그러나 JGB 선물의 매수세는 오래가지 않았으며, 투자자 심리가 빠르게 조정되어 BoJ의 다음 행동에 대한 불확실성을 반영했다.
파니기르초글로는 포지셔닝 변화가 특히 주목할 만하다고 언급했으며, 9월 말까지 엔화 선물의 숏 포지션이 3분의 1로 줄어들고 JGB 선물의 숏 포지션이 상당히 청산되었다.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">일본은 여전히 인플레이션 플레이인가?</h2>
일본의 인플레이션 전망이 실질 금리 마이너스와 엔화 약세에 의해 주도되고 있는 만큼, &#8220;BoJ 트레이드&#8221;는 일본의 경제 상황 변화에 베팅할 의향이 있는 투자자들에게 여전히 잠재적인 승자가 될 수 있다.
그러나 시장 변동성과 글로벌 리스크로 인해 전망은 혼조세를 보이고 있다. 파니기르초글로가 언급했듯이, 이 트레이드의 경로는 BoJ의 결정에 크게 의존하며, 투자자들은 중앙은행이 대기할 것인지 아니면 조치를 취할 것인지 주의 깊게 지켜보고 있다.
iShares MSCI Japan ETF(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EWJ#NYSE">EWJ</a>), JPMorgan BetaBuilders Japan ETF(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BBJP#NYSE">BBJP</a>) 및 WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity Fund(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DXJ#NYSE">DXJ</a>)는 일본 주식에 대한 노출을 얻기 위한 인기 있는 방법이다.
Invesco Currencyshares Japanese Yen Trust(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FXY#NYSE">FXY</a>)는 일본 엔화에 대한 노출을 제공한다.
<div class="ticker-wrapper"></div>
다음 기사 읽기:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/24/11/42244807/dollar-snaps-8-week-winning-streak-falls-to-1-month-low-versus-yen-as-traders-brace-for-bojs-interest-rate-hike">달러, 8주 연속 상승세 중단, 엔화 대비 1개월 최저로 하락: 트레이더들이 BoJ 금리 인상 준비</a></li>
</ul>
이미지: Shutterstock
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트럼프 정책 'BoJ 트레이드'를 되살릴까: 일본이 새로운 인플레이션 투자처인가?

Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FXY#NYSE">FXY</a>)가 추적하는 일본 엔화는 월요일 미국 달러당 153.20달러를 넘어 약세를 보이며 <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/japan" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-google-interstitial="false">2024년 7월 말 이후 최저 수준</a>을 기록했다.
이번 하락은 주말 동안 일본의 집권 연합인 자유민주당(LDP)과 그 파트너인 공명당이 중의원 총선에서 과반수를 잃은 중대한 정치적 혼란 이후 발생했다.
예상치 못한 결과는 일본의 향후 재정 및 통화 정책 방향에 대한 투자자들의 우려를 불러일으켜, 이미 10월에 6.2% 하락한 엔화의 추가 하락에 기여했다.
이러한 부정적인 성과는 2022년 4월과 동등한 수준이며, 10월이 3일 남은 상황에서 추가 하락이 발생할 경우 엔화는 2016년 11월 이후 최악의 월간 하락폭을 기록하게 된다.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">차트: 일본 엔화, 2016년 11월 이후 최악의 월간 하락세를 노리다</h3>
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="wp-image-618018" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/28155136/image-285-1024x418.png" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/28155136/image-285-1024x418.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/28155136/image-285-300x123.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/28155136/image-285-768x314.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/28155136/image-285-1536x627.png 1536w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/28155136/image-285.png 1920w" alt="" width="1024" height="418" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption"><a href="https://bzresearch.myclickfunnels.com/benzinga-pro-content-webinar-registration/?utm_source=BZprocontent102824&amp;t=be2bearmibe3na1">Benzinga Pro</a></figcaption></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">정치적 불확실성이 엔화에 압박을 가하다</h3>
스코샤 은행(Scotiabank)는 월요일 연구 노트에서 &#8220;LDP와 연합 파트너가 중의원에서 과반수를 잃었고, 이는 다음 정부의 형태와 정책 방향에 대한 우려를 불러일으켰다&#8221;고 분석했다.
골드만삭스의 애널리스트 오타 토모히로(Tomohiro Ota)는 집권 연합의 정치적 입지가 약화되면 일부 야당이 정부 지출 확대를 옹호함에 따라 더 많은 재정 확장을 요구할 수 있다고 강조했다.
하지만 그는 &#8220;선거 결과가 주요 재정 및 통화 정책 변화를 가져오지는 않을 것&#8221;이라고 경고하며, 집권 연합의 &#8220;행정적 권력이 불가피하게 더 취약해졌다&#8221;고 언급했다.
오타는 "일부 야당이 이를 옹호하는 점을 고려할 때 재정 확대에 대한 압력이 강화될 가능성이 있다고 본다"고 덧붙였다.
BBVA의 수석 전략가 알레한드로 콰드라도(Alejandro Cuadrado)는 정치적 변화가 일본은행(BoJ)의 통화 긴축을 지연시킬 수 있다고 지적했다.
콰드라도는 &#8220;LDP의 집권 연합이 의회 다수를 잃은 것이 BoJ의 다음 금리 인상을 지연시킬 수 있다고 투자자들이 느꼈다&#8221;고 보고서에서 썼다.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">미국-일본 수익률 격차 확대, BoJ 회의 앞두고</h3>
미국과 일본 국채 간의 금리 차 확대도 엔화 약세의 주요 원인dl다.
10년 만기 미국 국채와 일본 국채 간의 수익률 격차는 9월 초 2.75%에서 10월 28일 기준 3.30%로 확대되었다. 단기 금리 차도 상승하여, 2년 만기 미국 국채의 수익률 격차가 일본 국채보다 3.15%에서 3.68%로 증가했다.
이러한 수익률 격차의 확대는 미국 달러를 투자자에게 더 매력적으로 만들어 엔화에 하방 압력을 가하고 엔화-달러 캐리 거래 전략을 강화하고 있다.
일본은행(BoJ)은 목요일에 회의를 열 예정이지만, 애널리스트들은 즉각적인 정책 변경을 예상하고 있지 않다.
인테사 상파울로(Intesa Sanpaolo)의 시장 전략가 루카 시고니니(Luca Cigognini)는 정치적 상황이 BoJ의 정책 결정에 영향을 미칠 수 있다고 강조했다.
시고니니는 &#8220;새 정부를 구성하는 것이 더 복잡해지고, 그 효과가 BoJ에도 나타날 수 있으며, BoJ가 향후 통화 정책 긴축을 피할 수 있다&#8221;고 썼다.
그러나 ING의 애널리스트 크리스 터너(Chris Turner)는 12월 금리 인상 가능성이 여전히 테이블에 있을 것으로 예상하고, 미국 선거로 인한 변동성이 큰 주간을 앞두고 엔화-달러 캐리 거래 기회를 쫓지 말 것을 투자자들에게 권장했다.
터너는 &#8220;시장은 이번 주 일본은행의 금리 인상 가능성을 거의 보지 않고 있다&#8221;고 말하며, 정치적 혼란이 BoJ의 접근 방식에 주의의 한 층을 추가할 수 있다고 덧붙였다.
&#8220;다음 주로 갈수록 변동성이 더 커질 가능성이 높아 캐리 거래에 적합하지 않으므로, 현재 수준에서 USD/JPY 상승을 추구하는 것을 선호하지 않는다&#8221;고 추가했다.

지금 읽어보세요:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/10/41581488/is-s-p-500-headed-for-a-lost-decade-analysts-say-we-may-have-forgotten-about-divide">S&amp;P 500이 잃어버린 10년으로 향하고 있는가? 분석가들은 ‘우리가 배당금을 잊어버린 것일 수 있다&#8217;고 말한다.</a></li>
</ul>
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세계 주요 중앙은행들은 <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/inflation" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-google-interstitial="false">선진국 전반의 인플레이션</a> 완화에 힘입어 금리 인하의 새로운 국면을 열었다.
인플레이션이 목표 수준에 가까워짐에 따라 정책 입안자들은 성장을 방해하는 정책 제약을 완화하기 위해 노력하고 있다. 하지만 글로벌 통화 정책에서 눈에 띄는 예외가 주식 시장의 금리 인하로 인한 상승에 대한 우려를 불러일으키고 있다.
목요일, 유럽 중앙은행(ECB)은 두 번째 25bp(베이시스 포인트) 금리 인하를 단행했다. 이는 6월에 이어진 유사한 조치이다. ECB 총재인 크리스틴 라가르드는 추가 금리 인하를 약속하지는 않았지만, 향후 결정은 데이터 기반이 될 것이라고 암시했다.
그러나 프랑크푸르트는 속도를 늦출 여유가 없다. 이미 성장은 생명 유지 장치에 의존하고 있으며, 지역 경제의 무게추인 독일은 경기 침체의 경계에 있다.
뱅크 오브 아메리카의 유럽 경제학자 루벤 세구라-카유엘라(Ruben Segura-Cayuela)는 회의 후 메모에서 &#8220;우리는 여전히 데이터가 ECB를 금리 인하 사이클을 가속화하도록 밀어붙일 것이라고 생각한다&#8221;고 말했다.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">거의 동기화된 글로벌 중앙은행들</h3>
이번 달 초, 캐나다 중앙은행은 기준 금리를 25bp 인하하여 4.25%로 조정했다. 정책 입안자들은 인플레이션 목표를 하회할 우려를 제기했다. 이는 1년 전 인플레이션 초과가 주된 이슈였던 상황에서는 상상할 수 없는 일이었다.
한편, 다음 주 미국 연방준비제도(연준)의 금리 인하는 사실상 확정된 상황이다. 이제 시장에서 남아 있는 유일한 질문은 금리 인하의 규모와 속도이다: 연준이 25bp 또는 50bp 인하할까? 매 회의마다 인하할까, 아니면 점진적으로 매 두 번째 회의에 한 번씩 인하할까?
영국은행(BoE)은 금리 인하에 대한 예측이 5-4로 간신히 찬성하는 결과를 보일 것으로 예상되면서 긴박한 상황이다.
뱅크 오브 아메리카의 경제학자 안토니오 가브리엘(Antonio Gabriel)은 &#8220;현재 시장은 이 인하의 규모와 순서를 논의하고 있다. 그러나 결과에 관계없이 글로벌 통화 정책의 수렴이 시작될 것이다&#8221;고 최근에 언급했다.
뱅크 오브 아메리카에 따르면, 이 새로운 글로벌 통화 조정은 역사적으로 높은 수준의 달러를 약세로 만들 가능성이 높지만, 달러 가치 하락은 다가오는 선거 이후 미국 정책 변화에 의해 완화될 수 있다.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">일본은행의 예외적 입장: 시장의 변동성 요인</h3>
이 동기화된 완화 조치에서 하나의 뚜렷한 예외는 일본은행(BOJ)이다.
도쿄는 명확히 다른 기준을 따르기로 결정한 것으로 보인다.
세계 주요 중앙은행들이 금리를 인하하는 동안, BOJ는 7월에 금리를 인상했다. 이는 올해 두 번째 인상으로, 3월의 인상에 이어진 것이다. 또한 더 많은 금리 인상이 있을 수 있음을 시사했다. 연간 2.8%의 인플레이션이 BOJ의 2% 목표를 훨씬 초과하는 상황에서 일본의 통화 정책은 차별화된 경로를 걸을 것으로 보인다.
BOJ 총재인 우에다 카즈오는 이달 초 경제와 인플레이션이 예상대로 진행된다면 BOJ는 금리 인상을 계속할 것이라고 재확인했다.
시장 전략가인 에드 야데니(Ed Yardeni)는 이 차별화에 대해 언급하면서, 이는 시장 전반에 걸쳐 파급 효과를 일으키고 있다고 지적했다. &#8220;캐리 트레이드가 여전히 청산되고 있다. 연준이 금리를 인하할 것이라는 기대와 BOJ가 계속 금리를 인상할 것이라는 기대가 결합되어 엔화가 강세를 보이고, 트레이더들이 캐리 트레이드를 청산하도록 강요하고 있다&#8221;고 그가 말했다.
금융 용어에 익숙하지 않은 사람들을 위해 설명하자면, 캐리 트레이드는 엔화를 거의 제로 금리로 빌려 더 높은 수익률을 제공하는 자산에 투자하는 전략을 의미한다. 이제 엔화가 강세를 보이면서 이러한 거래들이 청산되고, 시장에서 가장 고평가된 주식들이 가격이 급락하고 있다.
야데니는 엔화와 나스닥 100 간의 중요한 반비례 상관관계를 강조했다. 이는 올해 초부터 지속되고 있다.
Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FXY#NYSE">FXY</a>)가 추적하는 일본 통화가 강세를 보일 때마다, Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1(NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>)을 통해 모니터링하는 나스닥 100 지수는 약세를 보인다.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">차트: 일본 엔화와 미국 기술주 간의 역관계</h3>
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주요 중앙 은행들이 함께 금리를 인하하는 동안, BOJ의 저항이 상승 모멘텀을 위협

미국 달러-일본 엔화 환율은 최근 몇 년간 가장 힘든 주를 보냈으며, 주요 경제 이벤트로 인한 급격한 변동이 트레이더들로 하여금 <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/asia/24/08/40223986/traders-resume-yen-dollar-carry-trade-as-bank-of-japan-pledges-no-rate-hikes-during-market-volatilit" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-google-interstitial="false">달러-엔 캐리 트레이드</a>의 미래를 재평가하게 만들었다.
달러-엔 변동성은 캐리 트레이드 포지셔닝에 대한 논쟁을 촉발: &#8216;우리는 구조적으로 엔화 약세 전망을 유지합니다&#8217;라고 애널리스트
USD/JPY 쌍은 한 주에 146.36으로 시작했지만 트레이더들이 9월 연방준비제도(연준)의 50 베이시스 포인트(bp) 금리 인하를 완전히 반영하면서 월요일에 최저치인 141.68까지 급락했고 일부에서는 긴급 금리 인하를 추측하기도 했다.
그러나 주 후반에는 일본은행(BoJ)의 비둘기적인 발언과 미국 경제 데이터에 힘입어 달러가 엔화에 대해 반등했다. 이 데이터는 가까운 미래에 경기 침체가 올 것이라는 우려를 완화시켰다.
주 말에는 Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FXY#NYSE">FXY</a>)에 의해 추적되는 엔화가 전주와 큰 변동 없이 유지되었다.
이번 주의 변동성이 큰 상황 속에서 트레이더들은 USD/JPY에서 캐리 트레이드 포지션이 얼마나 남아 있는지, 또는 미국 인플레이션 서프라이즈에 대비하여 달러를 매수하고 엔화를 매도하는 전략을 다시 고려해야 하는지, 아니면 경기 침체 가능성에 대비하여 USD/JPY를 공매도하는 것이 더 효과적인 전략이 될 수 있는지를 고민하고 있다.
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">분석가들의 엔 캐리 트레이드 전략에 대한 견해</h1>
LPL 파이낸셜의 수석 기술 전략가 아담 턴퀴스트(Adam Turnquist)는 "초저금리와 느슨한 통화 정책이 엔화를 캐리 트레이드의 매력적인 자금 조달 통화로 만들었다"고 설명했다. 캐리 트레이드에서는 투자자들이 엔화같이 낮은 수익률의 통화를 차입하여 미국 재무부 채권과 같은 높은 수익률의 증권에 투자한다.
하지만 BoJ의 최근 긴축 조치가 "이 혼잡한 거래의 유명한 실을 당겼고, 거래가 풀리기 시작했다"고 턴퀴스트가 말했다. 이로 인해 투자자들이 숏 포지션을 청산하면서 엔화 매입이 급증했다.
턴퀴스트에 따르면, 엔화 캐리 트레이드의 규모를 추정하는 것은 통화 포지션과 거래의 불투명성 때문에 어렵다. 전체 엔화 차입 규모는 1조 달러에서 4조 달러 사이일 수 있으며, 최근 보고서에 따르면 캐리 트레이드의 75%가 이번 주의 변동성 사건 이후에 청산되었다고 한다.
턴퀴스트는 USD/JPY가 더 이상 상승 추세에 있지 않으며, 추가 하락 위험이 여전히 높다고 지적했다.
최근의 반등이 "과매도 수준에서의 반짝 상승" 이상으로 고려하기에는 아직 이르다고 말했다. 그는 141 지지선 수준 아래로 떨어지면 또 다른 하락이 있을 수 있음을 시사하며, 152 이상으로 반등하면 이전의 상승 추세로 돌아가면서 캐리 트레이드의 변동성과 하락 위험이 줄어들 것이라고 설명했다.
트레이드 네이션(Trade Nation)의 선임 시장 분석가 데이비드 모리슨(David Morrison)은 USD/JPY가 월요일에 올해 들어 가장 낮은 수준에 도달했으나 이후 거의 4% 상승하여 시장이 "안정화되었고 대부분의 청산이 완료되었다"고 관찰했다.
그러나 모리슨은 "엔화 캐리 트레이드의 추가 청산이 있을 수 있다는 우려가 여전히 있다"고 경고했다. 만약 이 상황이 발생하면, 엔화 강세가 더해져 청산 과정이 가속화되며 위험 자산에 추가 하락 압박을 줄 수 있다.
모리슨은 또한 BoJ가 최근 통화 정책 회의의 의사록을 발표했으며, 이 회의에서 예상치 못한 정책 긴축이 이루어졌다고 언급했다. 의사록에서는 추가 금리 인상이 있을 수 있다는 암시가 있었으나, BoJ 부총재의 비둘기파적인 발언이 "사실상 의사록의 효과를 무효화시켰다"고 설명했다.
뱅크 오브 아메리카(Bank of America)의 외환 분석가 야마다 슈스케는 포지셔닝 지표와 주식 시장의 안정화 징후를 바탕으로 단기 엔화 캐리 트레이드 청산의 대부분이 "진행되었다"고 말했다.
그러나 야마다는 "경기 사이클 헤지 매도자들이 미국 경제의 급격한 침체 시나리오를 대비하기 위해 USD/JPY의 반등을 매도할 것"이라고 경고했다.
또한 야마다는 기업의 해외 직접 투자(FDI)와 개인 투자자들의 해외 주식 투자와 같은 구조적 자금 유출이 "여전히 유지되고 있다"고 강조했다. 이러한 거래는 단기 금리 차이로 인해 발생하지 않기 때문이다.
뱅크 오브 아메리카는 2024년 말 USD/JPY 예측을 155로 수정했지만, "구조적으로 엔화에 대해 약세 시각"을 유지하고 있다.

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달러-엔 변동성은 캐리 트레이드 포지셔닝에 대한 논쟁을 촉발: 구조적인 엔 약세 전망 유지

일본은행(BoJ)의 비둘기파적인 신호로 인해 <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/08/40199218/yen-carry-trade-is-only-halfway-unraveled-wall-street-analyst-says-how-much-more-ro" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-google-interstitial="false">최근 시장 움직임</a>에 대한 재고가 촉발된 후 수요일 거래자들은 엔-달러 캐리 트레이드에 대한 강세 베팅을 다시 시작했다.
Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FXY#NYSE">FXY</a>)가 추적한 일본 엔화는 일본 은행(BOJ) 부총재 우치다 신이치가 시장이 불안정할 경우 금리를 인상하지 않겠다고 약속하면서 뉴욕 시간 오전 10시에 달러당 147엔을 넘어 1.9% 이상 하락했다.
우치다는 일본 재계 지도자들과의 간담회에서 "국내외 금융시장의 변동성이 큰 만큼 당분간 통화완화 수준을 유지할 필요가 있다"고 말했다.
우치다는 회의 후 기자회견에서 "개인적으로는 금리 인상에 신중해야 하는 요인이 더 많이 나타나고 있다고 본다"고 덧붙였다.
다음 읽기: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/24/08/40220673/mortgage-rates-fall-to-15-month-lows-boost-homebuyer-demand-as-federal-reserve-hints-at-rate-cut">모기지 금리가 15개월 만에 최저치로 떨어지고 연준이 금리 인하를 암시함에 따라 주택 구입자 수요가 증가</a>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">엔-달러 캐리 트레이드 전략, 다시 정상화되나?</h2>
&#8220;금리 인상 중단에 대한 BOJ의 오늘 발표는 많은 헤지펀드 등이 여전히 오프사이드 상태에 있을 수 있기 때문에 캐리 트레이드의 청산으로 인한 피해가 여전히 해결되어야 함을 시사한다&#8221;고 코메리카 웰스 매니지먼트(Comerica Wealth Management)의 최고 투자책임자인 존 린치(John Lynch)가 말했다.
"지난주의 예상보다 큰 금리 인상이 주식시장 대패의 원인 중 하나로 여겨졌기 때문에 BOJ가 금리를 더 인상하기 위해 서두를 것이라는 우려가 누그러졌다. 이 연설은 엔화 가치를 낮추고 지난 달의 엄청난 상승폭을 되돌려주는 데 도움이 되었다. 이는 여전히 상당한 숫자가 존재하는 엔 캐리 트레이드에 여전히 노출되어 있는 사람들의 부담을 어느 정도 덜어줄 것이다"라고 트레이드네이션(Tradenation)의 시니어 시장 분석가인 데이비드 모리슨(David Morrison)이 말했다.
엔-달러 캐리 트레이드는 연방준비제도(연준)가 2022년 3월 금리를 인상하기 시작한 이후 점점 더 인기 있는 거래 전략이 되었다. 트레이더들은 일본 은행이 초저금리를 유지할 것이라고 확신하며, 이를 통해 저렴한 엔화 차입을 활용하여 국채와 같은 고수익 미국 달러 자산에 투자할 수 있다.
2022년 3월부터 2023년 7월까지 연준과 일본은행의 금리 차이로 인해 달러화는 엔화 대비 40% 상승했다.
엔-달러 캐리 트레이드는 지난 주 일본 은행이 금리를 인상하고 연준이 금리 인하를 시작하겠다고 약속한 후 갑자기 붕괴되어 두 지역 간의 단기 수익률 차이가 급격히 반전되었다.
지난 금요일 발표된 예상보다 낮은 7월 미국 고용 보고서는 경기 침체 위험이 높아지는 가운데 투자자들이 연준의 금리 인하에 대한 베팅을 늘리면서 엔-달러 캐리 트레이드의 청산을 더욱 가속화했다.
그러나 월요일 발표된 예상보다 강한 미국 서비스 부문 보고서는 경기 침체에 대한 우려를 재평가하도록 촉발했고, 이로 인해 트레이더들은 <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/24/08/40168342/us-services-activity-returns-to-growth-in-july-global-market-selloff-stalls-are-recession-fears-over" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-google-interstitial="false">금리에 대한 기대치</a>를 다시 수정하게 되었다.
달러-엔 환율은 월요일 141.60까지 하락한 뒤 수요일 오전까지 3.8% 상승했다.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">미국 경제 침체 우려 완화, BOJ의 입장 속에 엔-달러 캐리 트레이드 청산 정지</h3>
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="wp-image-481960" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/07101635/image-35-1024x576.png" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/07101635/image-35-1024x576.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/07101635/image-35-300x169.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/07101635/image-35-768x432.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/07101635/image-35-1536x864.png 1536w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/07101635/image-35.png 1920w" alt="" width="1024" height="576" /></figure>
다음 기사:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/08/40212775/move-over-yen-yuan-carry-trades-could-be-next-ticking-bomb-warns-strategists-but-it">엔화 다음, 위안화 캐리 거래가 다음 폭탄이 될 수 있다고 전략가들이 경고: &#8216;하지만 우리가 모니터링하는 위험 수준보다 낮다&#8217;</a></li>
</ul>
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Treasuries

일본 은행이 당분간 금리 인상을 하지 않겠다고 약속함에 따라 엔-달러 캐리 거래 재개

지난주는 인플레이션 데이터로 인해 금, 부동산, 국채 및 엔화가 급등하면서 시장은 롤러코스터를 타는 듯한 기분을 느꼈다. 한편, 노동 시장과 금리에 대한 제롬 파월 연방준비제도(연준) 의장의 발언은 투자자들을 불안하게 만들었다. 지난주 주요 뉴스를 살펴보겠다.
인플레이션 데이터, 금·부동산·국채·엔화에 대한 투자 촉진: 최근 인플레이션 데이터로 인해 투자자들은 금, 부동산, 국채, 엔화에 관심을 가졌다. 트레이더들은 현재 9월 금리 인하를 예상하고 있다. Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FXY#NYSE">FXY</a>)와 SPDR Gold Trust(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>)가 주목할만한 언급 중 하나이다. <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/asia/24/07/39733667/inflation-data-sparks-rush-for-gold-real-estate-treasuries-yen-traders-see-september-rate-cut-as-don" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-google-interstitial="false">기사 전문 보기.</a>
파월, 노동시장과 금리에 대해: 연준 의장 파월은 미국의 노동시장이 강하고 과열되지 않았다고 밝혔다. 그는 정책금리를 2%를 지속적으로 향하도록 설득하기에는 연준이 더 많은 자신감을 얻을 때까지 적절하지 않다고 덧붙였다. 그는 이러한 발언을 미 의회 은행위원회에 대한 매년 2회의 증언 기간 중 이번에 할 증언에서 했다. <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/24/07/39692638/powell-says-labor-market-strong-not-overheated-fed-chair-awaits-right-moment-to-cut-interest-rat">기사 전문 보기.</a>
분석가, 연준 회의에 대한 긍정적인 시장 반응 예측: 제프리스(Jefferies)의 수석 시장 전략가인 데이비드 저보스(David Zervos)는 다가오는 연준 회의에 대한 긍정적인 시장 반응을 예상하고 있다. 그는 이번 7월 회의에서 시장이 들을 것을 좋아할 것이라고 믿고 있는데, 이번 회의의 비둘기파적인 톤과 12월 회의의 비둘기파적인 톤을 비교하고 있다. <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/07/39743700/analyst-says-markets-going-to-like-what-they-hear-during-july-federal-reserve-meeti">기사 전문 보기.</a>
높은 생산자물가, 지속적인 인플레이션 표시: 경제학자들은 인플레이션이 사람들의 기대 이상으로 계속 높아질 수 있다고 말한다. 금요일 발표된 생산자물가지수(PPI)는 6월에 예상보다 높은 상승률을 보여 투자자들을 놀라게 했다. 관측통들은 목요일 발표된 월간 소비자물가지수(CPI) 인플레이션 지표가 예상보다 크게 하락한 이후 금리 인하가 임박할 것으로 예상하고 있다. <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/top-stories/24/07/39753316/higher-producer-prices-show-inflation-may-stick-around-longer-than-most-people-expect">기사 전문 보기.</a>
주택 시장, 곧 터질 대형 거품: 한 부동산 중개인은 주택 시장에 대규모 거품이 생겨 곧 터질 것이라고 경고했다. 인플레이션 데이터로 인해 부동산 투자가 붐비는 가운데 나온 것이다. <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/real-estate/24/07/39727958/a-massive-bubble-in-the-housing-market-has-developed-and-it-is-about-to-pop-real-estate-executive-sa">기사 전문 보기.</a>
이 기사는 <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/author/benzinga-neuro">벤징가 뉴로</a>를 이용해 생성되었으며 <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/author/ananya-gairola" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Ananya Gairola</a>가 편집했다.
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Media

주간 주요 경제 뉴스: 인플레이션 데이터로 금·부동산·국채·엔화 상승, 파월의 노동 시장 등

일본 엔화는 수요일에 달러당 160엔을 넘었다. 이는 2024년 4월 말의 저점을 뛰어넘는 것으로, 이전에는 일본은행(BOJ)에서 <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/japanese-yen" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-google-interstitial="false">엔화 변동성을 억제</a>하기 위해 외환보유고를 판매한 적이 있었다.
Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FXY#NYSE">FXY</a>)로 추적되는 엔화는 현재 달러 대비 1987년 12월 이후 최저 수준으로 하락했으며, 지난 3년 동안 가치의 3분의 1이 감소했습니다. 이는 일본은행과 다른 주요 중앙은행들, 특히 연방준비제도(연준) 간의 금리 차이로 인한 지속적인 격차 때문이다.
6월 회의에서 일본은행은 예상대로 주요 단기 금리를 약 0%에서 0.1%로 유지하기로 만장일치로 결정했다. 이는 2007년 이후 첫 금리 인상과 3월에 8년간의 마이너스 금리를 종료한 이후였다.
더욱이, 이사회는 7월 회의에서 월 6조 엔의 채권 매입을 줄이는 것을 고려할 수도 있다고 시사했다.
일본은 4월 말부터 5월 말까지 약 613억 달러를 통화 개입에 지출했으며, 이 기간 동안 두 차례의 개입이 있었던 것으로 보인다.
지난주 미국 재무부는 일본을 외환 &#8216;모니터링 목록&#8217;에 추가했는데, 이 결정은 4~5월 엔화를 지원하기 위한 일본의 개입 때문이 아니라 목록의 세 가지 기계적 기준 중 두 가지를 충족했기 때문이다.
이 차트는 높은 달러-엔 환율을 보여주는 차트로, 이는 달러가 엔화에 대해 강세를 보이고 있다는 것을 시사한다.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="wp-image-406620" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/26100836/image-57-1024x500.png" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/26100836/image-57-1024x500.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/26100836/image-57-300x147.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/26100836/image-57-768x375.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/26100836/image-57-1536x750.png 1536w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/26100836/image-57.png 1920w" alt="" width="1024" height="500" /></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">분석가들의 반응</h3>
&#8220;엔화는 아마도 금요일에 발표될 도쿄 소비자물가지수(CPI)와 산업 생산 수치를 포함한 월간 데이터 발표를 앞두고 최근 저점을 계속 공격할 것이다&#8221;고 BBVA의 수석 전략가 알레한드로 콰드라도(Alejandro Cuadrado)가 썼다.
&#8220;미국 달러 대비 엔화는 여전히 높은 수준을 유지하고 있지만, 충격은 없다. 우리는 일본은행의 가능한 개입에 대한 경고가 여전히 유효하다는 생각을 확인한다&#8221;고 방카 IMI(Banca IMI)의 시장 전략가 루카 치고그니니(Luca Cigognini)가 말했습니다.
&#8220;일본 당국은 금요일 PCE(개인소비지출) 발표를 적어도 기다린 후 개입 여부를 결정할 것이다. 가격이 그 전에 160을 돌파하더라도 말이다&#8221;라고 뉴욕에 있는 미쓰비시 UFJ 신탁은행의 영업 및 거래 책임자 다카후미 오노데라(Takafumi Onodera)가 말했다.
&#8220;이 결정은 이제 하나의 변수보다는 엔화 가치 하락 속도와 수준이라는 두 가지 변수에 달려 있다.&#8221;라고 씨티그룹의 애널리스트 오사무 타카시마(Osamu Takashima)가 쓴 메모에 적혀 있다.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">규칙이 깨어지는&#8230;</h3>
눈에 띄는 발전은 미 국채와 일본 국채 간의 10년물 수익률 스프레드에서 달러- 환율이 최근 분리된 것이다.
2024년 5월까지 이 상관관계는 거의 완벽하게 유지되었으며, 수익률 스프레드가 확대되면 달러-엔 환율에 상승 압력이 가해지고 반대의 경우도 마찬가지였다.
그러나 지난 두 달 동안 미국과 일본 간의 10년물 수익률 스프레드가 좁아졌음에도 불구하고 달러-엔 환율의 하락으로 이어지지 않았으며, 엔화의 가치가 계속해서 떨어지고 있는 것이다.
그렇다면 이 때문에 달러-엔 환율을 거래하는 데 있어 기존의 유용한 규칙이 더 이상 적용되지 않고 있는 것일까?
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="wp-image-406631" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/26101236/image-58-1024x500.png" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/26101236/image-58-1024x500.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/26101236/image-58-300x147.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/26101236/image-58-768x375.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/26101236/image-58-1536x750.png 1536w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/26101236/image-58.png 1920w" alt="" width="1024" height="500" /></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">‘무제한 채권 매입이 가져올 결과에 대한 경고 이야기&#8217;</h3>
현재 트레이더들은 일본은행이 금리를 크게 인상할 수 없으며, 외환보유액을 매각하는 개입을 장기적으로 지속할 수 없다는 것을 알고 일본은행의 회복력을 시험하고 있다.
브루킹스 연구소의 글로벌 경제 및 개발 프로그램 선임 연구원인 로빈 브룩스(Robin Brooks)에 따르면, "엔화 약세는 일본의 매우 높은 부채에서 비롯되며, 이는 중앙은행이 무제한 채권 매입을 통해 장기 국채 수익률을 억제하도록 강제한다."
이 경제학자는 "일본은 통제되지 않은 부채 증가의 결과에 대한 경고적인 사례이다"라고 덧붙였다.
일본은 더 이상 과거의 저인플레이션 예외국이 아니며, 핵심 인플레이션이 2%에 도달했다. 최근 엔화 가치 하락으로 인한 인플레이션 충격은 이제 덜 환영받을 수 있다.
브룩스는 "국가는 중앙은행을 사용하여 국채 수익률을 억제할 수 있지만, 이는 단지 약한 부채 역학을 통화 가치 하락으로 전가하는 것일 뿐이다"라고 말했다.
최근 일본 재무성은 2022년 9월과 10월에 이루어진 것보다 규모가 훨씬 큰 환율의 새로운 무담보 채권 매입을 위해 반복적으로 개입해왔다.
그러나 이러한 노력들은 한계가 있었다. 왜냐하면 일본은행이 수익률 상한선을 유지하기 위해 국채를 매입하는 것이 엔화를 간접적으로 약화시키기 때문에, 재무성의 엔화 지원 시도를 상쇄시키게 되었다.
이 상황은 사실상 두 기관의 노력을 상쇄시키며, 일본 내에서의 엔화 약세에 대한 분열된 입장을 드러내고 있다.
로빈 브룩스는 &#8220;이러한 분열된 정책 메시지로 인해 CFTC 포지셔닝 데이터에 따르면 투기적 엔화 숏 포지션은 크게 줄어들지 않았다&#8221;고 언급했다.
아래 차트에서 보듯이, 엔화에 대한 순 비상업적 포지션은 현재 147,753 계약의 숏 포지션으로, 이는 역사적 평균보다 매우 낮은 수치이다.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="wp-image-406641" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/26101733/image-59-1024x500.png" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/26101733/image-59-1024x500.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/26101733/image-59-300x147.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/26101733/image-59-768x375.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/26101733/image-59-1536x750.png 1536w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/26101733/image-59.png 1920w" alt="" width="1024" height="500" /></figure>
다음 글을 읽어보세요:
<ul>
<li> <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/24/06/39480978/54-of-japanese-institutional-investors-plan-to-invest-in-crypto-in-the-next-3-years">일본의 기관투자자들 중 54%가 앞으로 3년 이내 암호화폐투자 계획</a></li>
</ul>
Image generated using artificial intelligence via Midjourney.

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