Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (ARCA: FXY)

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The fund seeks to reflect the price in USD of the Japanese Yen. The sponsor believes that, for many investors, the shares represent a cost-effective investment relative to traditional means of investing in the foreign exchange market.

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일본 엔화는 수요일에 달러당 160엔을 넘었다. 이는 2024년 4월 말의 저점을 뛰어넘는 것으로, 이전에는 일본은행(BOJ)에서 엔화 변동성을 억제하기 위해 외환보유고를 판매한 적이 있었다.

엔화는 1986년 12월 이후 최저치인 달러 대비 160엔으로 급락: 일본은행의 개입이 임박?

The Japanese yen tumbled past 160 per dollar on Wednesday, surpassing its late April 2024 low that previously prompted sharp interventions from the Bank of Japan, which sold forex reserves to <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/japanese-yen">curb the yen&#8217;s volatility.</a>
The yen, as tracked by the Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FXY#NYSE">FXY</a>), has now fallen to its lowest level since December 1987 against the greenback, depreciating by a third of its value over the past three years, amid a persistent divergence in interest rates between the Bank of Japan and other major central banks, particularly the Fed.
At its June meeting, the Bank of Japan unanimously kept its key short-term interest rate at approximately 0% to 0.1%, as anticipated, following its first rate hike since 2007 and the conclusion of eight years of negative rates in March.
Moreover, the board suggested it might consider reducing its JPY 6 trillion per month bond purchases at its July meeting.
Japan spent $61.3 billion on currency intervention from late April to late May, a period likely involving two separate instances of intervention.
Last week, the U.S. Treasury Department added Japan to a foreign exchange &#8220;monitoring list,&#8221; a decision not attributed to Japan's interventions in April-May to support the yen but for meeting two of the three mechanical criteria for the list.
This chart shows a higher dollar-yen exchange rate, indicating the dollar strengthening against the yen.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="500" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/26100836/image-57-1024x500.png" alt="" class="wp-image-406620" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/26100836/image-57-1024x500.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/26100836/image-57-300x147.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/26100836/image-57-768x375.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/26100836/image-57-1536x750.png 1536w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/26100836/image-57.png 1920w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Analyst Reactions</h3>
&#8220;The JPY will probably continue to attack recent lows ahead of the release of monthly data, including Tokyo's CPI and industrial production figures on Friday,&#8221; wrote BBVA chief strategist Alejandro Cuadrado. 
&#8220;The USD/JPY remains high, but without shocks. We confirm our idea that BoJ&#8217;s warnings about possible interventions are still in the air,&#8221; said Banca IMI&#8217;s market strategist Luca Cigognini. 
"The Japanese authorities will wait at least for PCE on Friday to decide on intervention, even if the price breaks through 160 before that," said Takafumi Onodera, head of sales and trading at Mitsubishi UFJ Trust &amp; Banking Corp. in New York.
&#8220;The decision now depends on two variables — the speed of yen depreciation as well as the level — rather than one," Citigroup Inc. analysts led by Osamu Takashima wrote in a note.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Something Has Broken Out&#8230;</h3>
A notable development has been the recent decoupling of the USD/JPY exchange rate from the 10-year yield spread between Treasury and Japanese government bonds. 
Until May 2024, this correlation held almost perfectly, as a widening yield spread forced upward pressure on the dollar-yen exchange rate and vice versa.
However, over the past two months, the tighter 10-year yield spread between the U.S. and Japan hasn&#8217;t led to a drop in the dollar-yen exchange rate, as yen depreciation continued.
Why is this golden rule for trading the USD/JPY pair is no longer holding?
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="500" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/26101236/image-58-1024x500.png" alt="" class="wp-image-406631" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/26101236/image-58-1024x500.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/26101236/image-58-300x147.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/26101236/image-58-768x375.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/26101236/image-58-1536x750.png 1536w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/26101236/image-58.png 1920w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">&#8216;A Cautionary Tale About The Consequences Of Allowing Debt To Grow Unchecked&#8217;</h3>
Possibly, traders are currently testing the Bank of Japan&#8217;s resilience, knowing it cannot raise rates significantly and that continued interventions by selling reserves are unsustainable in the long term. 
According to Robin Brooks, senior fellow in the Global Economy and Development program at the Brookings Institution, &#8220;Yen weakness stems from Japan's very high debt, which forces the bank to cap long-term government bond yields via open-ended bond buying.&#8221;
&#8220;Japan serves as a cautionary tale about the consequences of unchecked debt growth,&#8221; the economist added. 
Japan is no longer the low inflation outlier it once was, as its core inflation hit the 2%. The inflationary impulse from the recent yen depreciation may now be less welcome. 
Brooks stated, &#8220;Countries can use their central banks to cap government bond yields, but that just transfers weak debt dynamics into currency depreciation.&#8221;
Recently, Japan's Ministry of Finance has intervened repeatedly to halt the yen&#8217;s decline, with interventions on a much larger scale than those seen in September and October 2022. 
However, these efforts have had limited impact because the Bank of Japan&#8217;s purchases of government bonds—necessary to maintain the yield cap—indirectly weaken the yen, counteracting the Ministry of Finance&#8217;s attempts to support it. 
This situation effectively cancels out the efforts of both institutions, highlighting the divided stance on yen depreciation within Japan.
&#8220;Given this divided policy message, speculative yen shorts, according to CFTC positioning data, have not pulled back materially,&#8221; Brooks stated. 
As the chart below indicates, the net non-commercial positions on the yen currently stand at a short of 147,753 contracts, a figure significantly below the historical average.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="500" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/26101733/image-59-1024x500.png" alt="" class="wp-image-406641" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/26101733/image-59-1024x500.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/26101733/image-59-300x147.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/26101733/image-59-768x375.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/26101733/image-59-1536x750.png 1536w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/26101733/image-59.png 1920w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
Read Next:
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<li> <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/24/06/39480978/54-of-japanese-institutional-investors-plan-to-invest-in-crypto-in-the-next-3-years">54% Of Japanese Institutional Investors Plan To Invest In Crypto In The Next 3 Years</a></li>
</ul>
Image generated using artificial intelligence via Midjourney.

Yen Plummets To 160 Against Dollar, Lowest Since December 1986: Is Bank Of Japan Intervention Imminent?

In an interview on Monday, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen outlined the current administration&#8217;s stance on several key economic issues, including tariffs on China and the need for domestic investment in strategic sectors, such as semiconductors and clean energy, which she believes are foundational for future job<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/semiconductors"> creation and national security. </a>
&#8220;The president believes it&#8217;s critically important for the United States to have a role in strategic industries,&#8221; Yellen <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-13/yellen-hopes-china-doesn-t-mount-significant-trade-retaliation?sref=TBDibEcD">told </a>Bloomberg, underscoring the necessity of reducing dependence on China.
She supported President Joe Biden&#8216;s view that China&#8217;s &#8220;enormous subsidies in critical areas of advanced manufacturing has resulted in overcapacity,&#8221; and flagged them as unfair practices.
This concern underpins the U.S. strategy to protect and stimulate domestic industries through legislative actions like the Inflation Reduction Act. These measures aim to bolster sectors that &#8220;are creating good manufacturing jobs in parts of the country that have been overlooked or have suffered from deindustrialization in the past.&#8221;
During her visit to China, Yellen made it clear that the U.S. &#8220;would not allow Chinese overcapacity to harm our emerging industries.&#8221; The goal is not to disengage economically from China, but to ensure a fair playing field, according to the treasury secretary.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Fiscal Sustainability and Economic Growth</h3>
Yellen echoed Biden&#8217;s commitment to economic growth and job creation, highlighting his budget proposals aimed at &#8220;helping working families and undertaking investments that are critical to our future.&#8221;
The budget also proposes &#8220;raising taxes on wealthy individuals who are not paying their fair share and on corporations that are doing extremely well.&#8221;
She stressed the necessity of being on &#8220;a fiscally sustainable path,&#8221; mentioning that the president &#8220;has already signed and put into effect a trillion dollars of deficit reduction over the next decade.&#8221; An additional &#8220;$3 trillion worth of deficit reduction&#8221; is proposed in his 2025 budget.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Yellen Addresses Global Currency Practices</h3>
Addressing the strength of the dollar and global currency practices, Yellen told Bloomberg that major countries, including those in the G7, &#8220;should have exchange rates determined by the market.&#8221;
She noted that intervention should be rare and &#8220;well communicated, and largely to address excessive fluctuations in currencies.&#8221; This approach has been effective, according to Yellen, in maintaining economic stability.
When asked about the Bank of Japan&#8217;s interventions to support the yen, Yellen chose not to comment on specific situations but reiterated that &#8220;when there is excessive volatility, it&#8217;s possible for countries to intervene.&#8221; 
She cautioned that taking such actions &#8220;doesn&#8217;t always work without more fundamental changes in policy&#8221; and should rarely occur, with clear communication to trade partners, aligning with broader G7 agreements on financial stability practices.
Since the Federal Reserve began its interest rate tightening policy in March 2022, the U.S. dollar has strengthened significantly against global currencies. 
The Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>), which tracks the performance of the U.S. Dollar index, has surged by 16%. In contrast, the Japanese yen has weakened considerably, with the Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FXY#NYSE">FXY</a>) declining by over 25%. 
This decline is mainly due to the Bank of Japan maintaining interest rates at near-record lows, while other major central banks have been increasing their cost of money.
Chart: Tracking the Dollar vs. Yen Performance Since the Start of the Fed&#8217;s Interest Rate Hikes
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="495" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/13111046/image-64-1024x495.png" alt="" class="wp-image-335294" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/13111046/image-64-1024x495.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/13111046/image-64-300x145.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/13111046/image-64-768x372.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/13111046/image-64-1536x743.png 1536w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/13111046/image-64.png 1920w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
Read now: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/05/38790019/april-inflation-data-preview-why-analysts-expect-economic-pressure-to-cool">April Inflation Data Preview: Why Analysts Expect Price Pressures To Cool</a>
Image created using a photo from <a href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/imfphoto/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">International Monetary Fund</a> on flickr and Shutterstock.

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Yellen Calls For Fair Trade With China, Urges Other Central Banks To Limit Currency Interventions

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<img alt="" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/2024-02-29_08h57_01.png" style="height:342px; width:624px" />
<h3>Inflation Gauge</h3>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/stock-market-chart-analysis-inflation-gauge-pce-bitcoin-soars-spy-mc-02292024">click here </a>for an enlarged version of the chart of&nbsp;SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (ARCA:SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&amp;P 500 (SPX).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>The chart shows that the stock market has failed to make progress since the release of hotter CPI.</li>
<li>The chart shows that the stock market was pulling back before the release of PCE, but improved on release of PCE.</li>
<li>The stock market has been anxiously awaiting PCE.&nbsp;PCE is the Fed&rsquo;s favorite inflation gauge.&nbsp;PCE rose the most in a year.&nbsp;Here are the details:
<ul>
<li>Headline PCE came at 0.3% vs. 0.4% consensus.</li>
<li>Core PCE came at 0.4% vs. 0.4% consensus.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, the stock market improved on the release of the PCE data as there was fear of an even worse number.</li>
<li>Digging into the data that underlies PCE, in The Arora Report analysis, there is deflation in goods, but there is serious inflation in services.&nbsp;Deflation in goods is coming from China.</li>
<li>The release of PCE data has triggered aggressive buying in AI stocks and bitcoin. The buying is especially aggressive in C3.ai Inc (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ai#NYSE">AI</a>) after the release of PCE data.&nbsp;C3.ai released better than expected earnings after the close yesterday.&nbsp;As a full disclosure, a signal was given in The Arora Report&#39;s&nbsp;ZYX Buy Change Alert.</li>
<li>The release of PCE data is also leading to very aggressive buying in small caps.&nbsp;As a full disclosure, iShares Russell 2000 ETF&nbsp;(ARCA: IWM) and its&nbsp;buy zone are in The Arora Report&#39;s&nbsp;ZYX Allocation Core Model Portfolio.</li>
<li>Personal income and spending data was also released this morning.&nbsp;Here are the details:
<ul>
<li>Personal spending came at 0.2% vs. 0.2% consensus.</li>
<li>Personal income came at 1.0% vs. 0.5% consensus.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Weekly initial claims came at 215K vs. 206K consensus.&nbsp;This indicates that the jobs picture remains strong, especially at the low end.&nbsp;However, the jobs picture is getting weaker in IT as many jobs are being replaced by AI.</li>
<li>Yesterday, the Fed&rsquo;s Williams, Collins, and Bostic said that the Fed will continue to be date dependent.&nbsp;Bostic said that he sees the first rate cut this summer, while Collins and Williams see the first rate cut later in 2024.</li>
<li>More Fed speak is ahead today from Fed Presidents Raphael Bostic, Austan Goolsbee, and Loretta Mester.</li>
<li>As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the protection band.</li>
</ul>
<h3>Japan</h3>
As we have been writing, prudent investors need to pay attention to Bank of Japan policies.&nbsp;Not only is the Japanese stock market hitting a new 34 year high, but interest rates and movements in Japan impact the U.S. stock market.
Bank of Japan board member Hajime Takata signaled a strong case for raising interest rates.&nbsp;The yen jumped.&nbsp;As a full disclosure, ETFs iShares MSCI Japan ETF (ARCA: EWJ) and Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (ARCA: FXY) are in The Arora Report&#39;s&nbsp;ZYX Allocation Core Model Portfolio.
<h3>Russia</h3>
Putin is warning that if the West directly intervenes in Ukraine, it risks nuclear war.&nbsp; Putin&rsquo;s comments are in response to a comment by French President Macron that NATO could send forces to Ukraine.
<h3>Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h3>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/meta#NASDAQ">META</a>), NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/nvda#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>), Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/msft#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>), and Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/tsla#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Apple Inc (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/aapl#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>) and Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/goog#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/amzn#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are mixed in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust SPY&nbsp;and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/qqq#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h3>Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h3>
The momo crowd is aggressively buying stocks in the early trade.&nbsp;Smart money is inactive in the early trade.
<h3>Gold</h3>
The momo crowd is aggressively buying gold in the early trade.&nbsp;Smart money is inactive in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.
The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (ARCA:GLD).&nbsp;The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (ARCA:SLV).&nbsp;
<h3>Oil</h3>
The momo crowd is buying oil in the early trade.&nbsp;Smart money is inactive in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see oil ratings.
The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (ARCA:USO).
<h3>Bitcoin</h3>
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) soared to $64,000 yesterday before pulling back.&nbsp;Release of PCE data brought aggressive buying into bitcoin.&nbsp;Bitcoin is now approaching $64,000 again.
<h3>Protection Band And What To Do Now</h3>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp;The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp;If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp;When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp;High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h3>Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h3>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of seven year duration or less.&nbsp;Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.
This article is from an unpaid external contributor. It does not represent Benzinga&#39;s reporting and has not been edited for content or accuracy.

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Fed's Favorite Inflation Gauge Rises By Most In A Year, Bitcoin Soars, Putin's Nuclear Threat

Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/fxy#NYSE">FXY</a>), an ETF that tracks the Japanese yen, traded <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/23/09/34355073/kroger-docusign-and-3-stocks-to-watch-heading-into-friday"> higher on Thursday.</a>
On CNBC&rsquo;s &quot;<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/video/2023/09/07/options-action-traders-bullish-on-the-japanese-yen.html">Options Action</a>,&quot;&nbsp; Mike Khouw of Optimize Advisors said Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust traded more than 8x its average daily call volume on Thursday.
Don&rsquo;t forget to check out our <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/premarket/"> premarket coverage here </a> 
There was a buyer of 1,180 of the January 2025 66-calls at an average price of $3.77 per contract, Khouw mentioned.
Trader sees Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust trading above the $70 mark in just over a year.
Price Action: Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust gained 0.3% to close at $63.10 on Thursday.
Check This Out: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/23/09/34350513/around-8m-bet-on-staar-surgical-check-out-these-4-stocks-insiders-are-buying"> Around $8M Bet On STAAR Surgical? Check Out These 4 Stocks Insiders Are Buying </a>
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Options Trader Bets Japanese Yen ETF Will Climb Higher By January 2025

The latest FX &amp; Rates Survey from Bank of America reveals that bond investors are hunting for long-dated Treasuries, put options on the stock market, and long positions in the Japanese Yen (JPY) versus high-beta currencies to shield themselves from the dangers connected with the <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/23/05/32362327/yellen-warns-of-catastrophe-if-debt-ceiling-impasse-continues-need-to-see-congress-committed-to-payi" target="_blank">U.S. debt limit crisis.</a>
Long-duration bets on U.S. treasuries were favored by 28% of the 73 global fixed-income investors polled by Bank of America, followed by stock puts at 26% and the long JPY strategy at 21%.
Also Read:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/23/05/32365807/how-has-the-stock-market-historically-performed-once-inflation-peaked">How Has The Stock Market Historically Performed Once Inflation Peaked?</a>
Only 2% of respondents favored a long USD trade, making it the least popular choice. Conversely, 26% believed that the U.S. dollar could potentially appreciate if broader market risk-off ensues and investors seek a safe haven, especially if the debt limit dispute remains unresolved by its deadline.
Exchange Traded Funds To Express These Views:&nbsp;
<ul>
<li>Long-duration U.S. treasuries are closely tracked by the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/tlt#NASDAQ">TLT</a>).&nbsp;</li>
<li>Equity puts are options strategies, but exchange traded funds like the ProShares Short S&amp;P 500 (ARCA: SH) and ProShares UltraPro Short S&amp;P500 (ARCA: SPXU) can be used to express a bearish view of the stock market. SH&nbsp;seeks a return that is the inverse (-1x) of the S&amp;P 500&#39;s daily performance, while SPXU&nbsp;seeks a return that is three times the inverse (-3x) of the S&amp;P 500&#39;s daily performance.</li>
<li>The long JPY&#39;s strategy can be implemented through a <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/money/how-to-trade-forex" target="_blank">forex broker</a>, while if investors want to gain exposure to the Japanese currency against the dollar, the ETF that mimics the JPY/USD exchange rate is Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (ARCA: FXY)</li>
</ul>
Read now:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/23/05/32365807/how-has-the-stock-market-historically-performed-once-inflation-peaked" target="_blank">How Has The Stock Market Historically Performed Once Inflation Peaked?</a>
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Debt-Limit Standoff: 3 Favorite Hedges For Bond Investors Seeking Shelter From Crisis

It&rsquo;s one of the many effects of the rise in interest rates in the United States:
The Japanese yen has fallen to a 32-year low versus the dollar. The government in Tokyo will not allow its 10-year yield to rise above 0.25% &mdash; it&rsquo;s a government finance policy mandate &mdash; so global investors avoid it in favor of the U.S. 10-year rate at 4%.
This has the effect of taking the dollar higher and the yen lower.&nbsp;
Currencies are continuously moving up and down against each other, but the magnitude of this drop in the yen is dramatic and concerning. Foreign exchange traders are well aware of the remarkable price action in this currency pair and so are Japanese officials.
See also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/money/what-are-forex-indicators">What Are Forex Indicators?</a>
Here is the daily price chart for the Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/fxy#NYSE">FXY</a>):
<img alt="" src="https://cdn.benzinga.com/files/yenfalls1.png" style="height:382px; width:640px" />
It requires little examination to notice how far the price has fallen from early this year to the present. That&rsquo;s a drop from $82 to $62 &mdash; a decline of 24% in a relatively short period of time. After a brief rally in August that took these yen shares back above the 50-day moving average, the selling kicked back in and the price is steadily moving downward, away from that level.
This is the weekly price chart:
<img alt="" src="https://cdn.benzinga.com/files/yenfalls2.jpg" style="height:382px; width:640px" />
The change from the January 2021 peak of $92 to the current $62 amounts to a 33% loss in value for any investor who&rsquo;s held on to the shares. The late 2021 crossover of the 50-week moving average to below the 200-week moving average is a bearish signal that has, so far, proved accurate. That the price is unable to stay out of the oversold&rdquo; range in the relative strength indicator (below the price chart) is not a good sign.
The monthly chart looks like this:
<img alt="" src="https://cdn.benzinga.com/files/yenfalls3.jpg" style="height:382px; width:640px" />
Note the bull market in the yen from 2008 through 2012. Those days are over, apparently, as the price has dropped from that 10-years ago peak of $130 to $62, a loss of 52% for anyone who held that long.&nbsp;
It&rsquo;s hard to see this kind of action changing much as long as Japan keeps its 10-year yield mandate at 0.25% and the U.S. 10-year yield keeps heading higher. Other factors are always involved, of course, but that&rsquo;s the central issue right now in the yen/dollar relationship.
The Bank of Japan on Friday announced an emergency bond-buying program designed to stem the tide of the yen&rsquo;s slippage.
Read next: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/best-forex-broker">Benzinga&#39;s List Of The Top Forex Brokers</a>
Not investment advice. For educational purposes only.
Charts courtesy of StockCharts

Yen Falls To 32-Year Low Against The Dollar

The U.S. has announced the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) with Asian partners, including Australia, Japan, and the Republic of Korea, to raise its economic profile and create another counterbalance to China.
<a class="editor-rtfLink" href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/23/us-announces-major-asia-economic-deal-in-effort-to-boost-profile-counter-china.html" style="color:#4a6ee0; background:transparent; margin-top:0pt; margin-bottom:0pt" target="_blank">CNBC writes</a>&nbsp;that the group wants to set international rules on the digital economy, supply chains, decarbonization, and regulations applying to workers.
Notably, the IPEF is not a free trade agreement. Biden faces political pressure from both the left and right in the United States to avoid free trade deals.
Related:&nbsp;<a class="editor-rtfLink" href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/22/05/27185566/biden-administration-to-inject-150m-to-reactivate-south-asian-alliances-to-counter-china-ft" style="color:#4a6ee0; background:transparent; margin-top:0pt; margin-bottom:0pt" target="_blank">Biden Administration To Inject $150M To Reactivate South Asian Alliances To Counter China: FT</a>.
It is also not a security pact and is separate from the Quad defense group, including the U.S., Japan, India, and Australia, U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan told.
Biden is in Tokyo this week, meeting regional leaders about the IPEF and the Quad.
The United States needs &ldquo;enhance its economic competitiveness in the region,&rdquo; according to Ali Wyne, a senior analyst with Eurasia Group&rsquo;s Global Macro practice.
U.S. officials have avoided mentioning China in discussions about the IPEF and have denied that it&rsquo;s a &ldquo;closed&rdquo; group, as China has claimed.
Chinese state-controlled media outlet Global Times said, &ldquo;the main goal of Biden&rsquo;s trip to South Korea and Japan is to form a new political posturing against China by establishing an alliance around Washington in the Asia-Pacific region.&rdquo;

Government

Politics

CurrencyShares British Pound Sterling Trust

US Announces Asia Economic Deal To Strengthen Foothold, Check China

<ul>
<li>IMF&#39;s first deputy MD Gita Gopinath warned that the Western sanctions on Russia could create small currency blocs based on trade between separate groups of countries,&nbsp;<a class="editor-rtfLink" href="https://www.ft.com/content/3e0760d4-8127-41db-9546-e62b6f8f5773" style="color:#4a6ee0; background:transparent; margin-top:0pt; margin-bottom:0pt" target="_blank">the Financial Times reports</a>.</li>
<li>All of which could gradually dilute the dominance of the U.S. dollar leading to a more fragmented international monetary system.</li>
<li>Gopinath noted that the dollar&#39;s share of international reserves dropped from 70% to 60% over the past two decades, thanks to the Australian dollar, followed by the Chinese renminbi.&nbsp;</li>
<li>The dollar would remain the primary global currency, but fragmentation is undoubtedly quite possible at a smaller level, Gopinath admitted.</li>
<li>The war would also spur the adoption of digital finance, from cryptocurrencies to stablecoins and central bank digital currencies.</li>
<li>The greater use of other currencies in global trade would further diversify the reserve assets held by national central banks.</li>
<li>Beijing looked to internationalize the renminbi before the current crisis and was already ahead of other nations in adopting a central bank digital currency, said Gopinath. However, the renminbi was unlikely to replace the dollar as the dominant reserve currency.&nbsp;</li>
<li>Russia sought for years to reduce its dependence on the dollar. However, it held a fifth of its foreign reserves in dollar-denominated assets before the invasion, with a notable chunk in Germany, France, the U.K., and Japan.</li>
<li>Photo by Sharon McCutcheon on Unsplash</li>
</ul>

Regulations

IMF Warns Russia Sanctions Could Hurt US Dollar Dominance, Cause Fragmentation In Global Financial System: FT

Every week, Benzinga conducts a survey to collect sentiment on what traders are most excited about,&nbsp;interested in&nbsp;or thinking about as they are managing and building their personal portfolios.
<h3>What Are Currency ETFs?</h3>
ETFs are exchange-traded funds. An ETF is an investment fund that trades on a stock exchange along with stocks for individual companies.&nbsp;
For example, the Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/qqq#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>) is an ETF that represents 100 of the largest companies by market capitalization on the Nasdaq.
Currency ETFs give investors the ability to trade the currencies of countries around the globe. Currency exchange-traded funds are popular with forex investors and those keen on the political stances of nations and interest rates.&nbsp;
Currency ETFs are popular in the world of <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/money/how-to-trade-forex/">forex trading</a>. If you&rsquo;re interested in investing long in the U.S. dollar, you might consider the Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/uup#NYSE">UUP</a>).
Given the UUP ETF is long the US Dollar, UUP in turn shorts those nations that have trade relations with the U.S., such as&nbsp;the Canadian dollar and&nbsp;Japanese yen.
This week we posed the following question: over the next five years, which currency ETF will have the largest percentage gain?
<ul>
<li>Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund&nbsp;</li>
<li>Invesco CurrencyShares&nbsp;Euro Currency Trust&nbsp;</li>
<li>Invesco CurrencyShares&nbsp;Japanese Yen Trust&nbsp;</li>
</ul>
<h3>Best Currency ETF</h3>
A majority of respondents, 53.5%, told us the Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund would be the currency ETF that sees the largest gain by 2025.
25.6% of readers said the Invesco CurrencyShares&nbsp;Euro Currency Trust, an ETF that tracks the price of the euro, would experience the largest gain over the next five&nbsp;years.
Respondents were the least confident on the future of the Invesco CurrencyShares&nbsp;Japanese Yen Trust, which received&nbsp;20.9% of the support in this week&rsquo;s study.
<h3>Learn FOREX Trading In 2020</h3>
We at Benzinga believe it&rsquo;s important to be pragmatic when it comes to finding ways to make the most of your hard-earned money.
If you or someone you know is looking to learn a new skill in investing, let Benzinga be your guide on <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/money/how-to-trade-forex/">forex trading</a>.

Crowdsourcing

Which Currency ETF Will Grow The Most By 2025?

Agora Financial&#39;s Alan Knuckman spoke on <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2018-10-09/how-agora-s-knuckman-is-playing-the-japanese-yen-etf-video">Bloomberg Markets</a> about a bullish options trade in Guggenheim CurrencyShares Japanese (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/fxy#NYSE">FXY</a>).
He thinks the U.S. dollar has topped out and he wants to buy the March 80 calls in Guggenheim CurrencyShares Japanese for $5.50. The trade breaks even at $85.50 or approximately 1 percent above the closing price on Tuesday.

Alan Knuckman's Guggenheim CurrencyShares Japanese Trade

It&#39;s no secret that Japanese stocks and the yen often move in opposite directions. The inverse relationship was on display in the first quarter when the WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity Fund (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/dxj#NYSE">DXJ</a>) and the CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/fxy#NYSE">FXY</a>) moved in almost exactly opposite directions.
In the first three months of 2018, DXJ lost 5.8 percent while FXY jumped 5.4 percent. The other side of that coin is that when the yen falters, it&#39;s usually good news for Japanese equities and exchange traded funds such as DXJ.
<h3>
	What Happened</h3>
&ldquo;When we look thus far at 2018, data from Japan&rsquo;s Ministry of Finance has indicated that more than $30 billion has left Japanese equities from foreign investors,&rdquo; <a href="https://www.wisdomtree.com/blog/2018-05-02/how-a-weaker-yen-affects-japanese-exporters">WisdomTree said in a recent note</a>. &ldquo;Clearly, foreign investors haven&rsquo;t been happy with Japan as an allocation, and a probable factor contributing to this activity is that people have seen the headline number for the Japanese yen/U.S. dollar exchange rate touching below 105 &mdash; quite a strong level!&rdquo;
Year-to-date, DXJ is lower by 4.2 percent while FXY is higher by 3.1 percent. Investors have yanked $2.57 billion from DXJ this year.
<h3>
	Why It&#39;s Important</h3>
Those outflows from DXJ may prove to be hasty. The dollar is surging, up about 3 percent against a basket of major foreign currencies, including the yen, since the start of the current quarter. The inverse relationship between the yen and Japanese stocks is in full bloom in the second quarter, as FXY is lower by 3.1 percent since April 1 while DXJ is higher by almost 4 percent.
In 2018, the yen had been one of the strongest-performing currencies, despite the rise in the 10-year. In late April, the yen started coming under more pressure that coincides with the rise in U.S. versus Japanese yield differentials,&rdquo; WisdomTree said.
Looked at differently, the Federal Reserve could raise rates as many as three more times this year, which could wind up benefiting DXJ.
<h3>
	What&#39;s Next</h3>
Some market observers are concerned the Bank of Japan is close to running out of tools with which to implement loose monetary policies. Yet it&#39;s unlikely the central bank there will seek tightening measures anytime soon.
As for DXJ, the ETF does not necessarily need an assist from Japan&#39;s central bank if the dollar rally continues with the Fed&#39;s own plans for higher rates.
Related Links:
<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/18/05/11641093/ditch-the-k-1-with-this-new-commodities-etf">Look at this New Commodities ETF</a>
<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/18/05/11640703/the-first-s-p-500-bond-etf-is-here">S&amp;P 500 With Bonds</a>
<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/18/05/11640703/the-first-s-p-500-bond-etf-is-here"> </a>

WisdomTree Trust Japan Total Dividend Fund

How The Yen Is Affecting Japanese ETFs

The CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/fxy#NYSE">FXY</a>) is up almost 7 percent year to date, making it one of the best-performing major currency exchange-traded funds. Predictably, yen strength and dollar weakness have kept a lid on the performances of Japan ETFs, particularly currency hedged fare, such as the WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity Fund (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/dxj#NYSE">DXJ</a>).
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe&#39;s administration has recently dealt with some setbacks, prompting speculation the once popular Japanese leader lacks for political capital. However, there is evidence Abenomics is working and that proof could spark fresh upside in ETFs such as DXJ. Rising tourism is that catalyst.
&ldquo;The boom in Japan&rsquo;s inbound tourism is arguably the most tangible success story of <a href="https://www.wisdomtree.com/blog/glossary#Abenomics">Abenomics</a>,&rdquo; said WisdomTree<a href="https://www.wisdomtree.com/blog/2017-08-24/japans-tourism-boom-to-bring-growing-political-support-for-yen-depreciation"> in a note out Thursday</a>. &ldquo;Propelled by a steady stream of visa rule deregulation that started the first week that &#39;Team Abe&#39; moved into the prime minister&rsquo;s office in December 2012, inbound tourist arrivals have risen almost fourfold, from a 2012 monthly average of 697,000 to 2.6 million recently.&rdquo;
<h3>Weak Yen Helps</h3>
Abe&#39;s impact on the yen is hard to miss. Currently, the Bank of Japan is one of several developed market central banks employing negative interest rates and over the past 36 months, FXY is off 6 percent, making it one of the worst-performing currency ETFs over that period.
Likewise, Japanese equities are benefiting from the weak yen. Over the past three years, the MSCI Japan Index, which is not currency hedged, is up just over 19 percent. DXJ is higher by a more impressive 23.8 percent over that period. Opinions are shifting regarding yen weakness.
&ldquo;While in the past, the policy establishment viewed yen depreciation as fundamentally negative for Japan because the resulting import-price cost push depressed further local business and regional economies, currency depreciation is now becoming viewed as a positive policy tool for driving domestic growth in general and regional growth in particular,&rdquo; said WisdomTree.
<h3>Right Place, Right Time</h3>
DXJ allocates over a quarter of its weight to consumer discretionary stocks, providing investors with leverage to Japanese exporters as well as improving consumption trends that can be tied to increasing tourism and related spending. About 35 percent of DXJ&#39;s combined weight is allocated to the industrial and technology sectors.
&ldquo;Team Abe deserves credit not only for kick-starting the cycle but also for seeking to anchor demand-growth expectations for private hospitality entrepreneurs by setting aggressive long-term goals: Japan wants 40 million visitors by 2020 and then 60 million by 2030, a massive jump from last year&rsquo;s 24 million,&rdquo; according to WisdomTree.
Related Links:
<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/17/08/9969362/alternatives-to-standard-corporate-bond-etfs">A Different Kind of Corporate Bond ETF</a>&nbsp;
<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/17/08/9942417/playing-the-emerging-markets-trade-with-leveraged-etfs">Bringing Leverage To The EM Trade</a>

A Compelling Catalyst For Japan ETFs

The Bank of Japan boosted its growth forecast for 2017 and President-elect <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/topic/donald-trump">Donald Trump</a> deserves much of the credit, at least according to Bloomberg's editorial board.
The Bank of Japan <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-20/boj-keeps-policy-unchanged-as-weak-yen-brightens-price-outlook">said earlier this week</a> that it now expects its real gross domestic product to rise 1.5 percent in the next fiscal year (beginning April 1) as opposed to a prior forecast of 1.2 percent. Nominal growth is now expected to rise 2.5 percent, up from a prior estimate of 2.2 percent.
<h3>What Did Trump Do?</h3>
Bloomberg noted that the main reason attributed to the Bank of Japan's upwardly revised forecast is the decline in its national currency, the yen. The yen has been falling due to the strengthening of the U.S. dollar, which is gaining due to the prospect of "Trumpian tax cuts," infrastructure spending and other policies Trump is expected to implement.
"The link from speculation over Trump's budgets to the outlook for Japan is a timely reminder of the limits of purely domestic economic policy," Bloomberg noted. "Economies are connected in subtle and sometimes unpredictable ways through global markets for goods and capital. That's why a possible side-effect of expanding domestic demand in the U.S. could be a reduction in exporters' competitiveness from a stronger currency."
Checking in on Japanese Yen ETFs:
<ul>
<li>Proshares Trust II (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/ycl#NYSE">YCL</a>) last traded at $54.65.</li>
<li>Guggenheim CurrencyShares Japanese (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/fxy#NYSE">FXY</a>) were up 0.15 percent at $81.94.</li>
<li>Proshares Trust II (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/ycs#NYSE">YCS</a>) were down 0.96 percent at $80.67.</li>
</ul>
Image Credit: By Gage Skidmore from Peoria, AZ, United States of America (Donald Trump) [CC BY-SA 2.0], via <a href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Donald_Trump_(17645083170).jpg">Wikimedia Commons</a>

Emerging Markets

Emerging Market ETFs

Movers

Bloomberg: Donald Trump Deserves Credit For Japan's Improving Economic Outlook

With a December rate hike by the Federal Reserve seemingly a sure thing, investors are rotating into asset classes that are positively correlated to higher U.S. interest rates. That rotation should not be limited to domestic fare.
<h3>Look Beyond The Boarder</h3>
The primary destination for investors looking to benefit from rising dollar, which has been sparked by soaring Treasury yields, is undoubtedly Japan. Price action confirms as much. It is not a coincidence that the U.S. Dollar Index is higher by 3.4 percent over the past month while the Guggenheim CurrencyShares Japanese (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/fxy#NYSE">FXY</a>) is lower by 9 percent.
Of course, yen woes are a boon for the WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity Fund (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/dxj#NYSE">DXJ</a>). Over the past month, <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/16/11/8722104/look-now-a-once-beloved-japan-etf-rises-again">DXJ is one of the best-performing</a> non-leveraged developed markets exchange-traded funds, delivering a gain of just over 11 percent.
<h3>Small-Cap Counterpart To DXJ</h3>
DXJ&#39;s small-cap counterpart, the WisdomTree Trust (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/dxjs#NASDAQ">DXJS</a>), is higher by 8.5 percent over the past month, making it one of the best ex-U.S. small-cap funds over that stretch.
Among large-cap Japan ETFs, DXJ remains one of the most compelling options, because the fund tilts directly toward Japanese exporters that benefit from the weak yen. For example, DXJ allocates <a href="https://www.wisdomtree.com/etfs/equity/dxj">over 53 percent of its</a> combined weight to consumer discretionary and industrial stocks.
&ldquo;When the yen weakens, companies such as Toyota, Honda, Nissan, Panasonic, Sony, etc., become more competitive as their products see their relative prices drop in global markets, including the United States,&rdquo; said WisdomTree <a href="https://www.wisdomtree.com/blog/2016-12-05/US-Rates-Are-Rising-and-Japanese-Exporters-Are-Roaring">in a note out Monday</a>. &ldquo;Sales volumes tend to increase along with an important positive impact from translating the foreign currencies acquired through foreign sales back into yen for reporting on their home country&rsquo;s (in this case, Japan&rsquo;s) financial statements. During the start of 2016, because of the yen&rsquo;s strength, there was a rather large headwind blowing in the face of these companies. That headwind appears to have been, for the moment, removed.&rdquo;
<h3>Running On Fumes? Not Necessarily</h3>
While Japan ETFs such as DXJ have recently been soaring, that does not mean the move higher for these funds is running on fumes. Currently, just over 10 Japan ETFs reside 10 percent or more away from their 52-week highs and six of those funds are currency hedged products, including DXJ.
<p&ldquo;As conditions changed and the strengthening of the yen first took a pause and then began weakening, Japan&rsquo;s equity market shifted. The formerly poor-performing Consumer Discretionary and Industrials sectors became the two top contributors to the outperformance of the WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity Index versus the MSCI Japan 100 percent Hedged to USD Index,&rdquo; added WisdomTree.
</p&ldquo;as>

DXJS

Going Outside The United States For Rising Rates Protection

Through the first half of this year, Japanese stocks and the relevant exchange-traded funds disappointed investors, as the yen surged on safe-haven demand. A simple look at year-to-date data proves that point, but looks can be deceiving.
Yes, the Guggenheim CurrencyShares Japanese (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/fxy#NYSE">FXY</a>) is up 8 percent year-to-date, making it one of this year&#39;s best-performing currency ETFs. And yes, the WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity Fund (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/dxj#NYSE">DXJ</a>) is down 4.4 percent this year, but that scenario is rapidly changing for the better.
<h3>Japan Headwinds</h3>
Over the past 90 days, FXY has plunged nearly 10 percent, while DXJ is higher by 13.2 percent. While many international markets and the corresponding ETFs have been seen as vulnerable to Donald Trump&#39;s ascent to the White House, at least for now, the same cannot be said of Japan. The dollar has been rallying since Trump&#39;s shocking victory. Since November 9, the day after Election Day, the U.S. Dollar Index is higher by 2.7 percent, FXY is off 4.4 percent and DXJ is higher by nearly 6 percent.
Many investors might criticize the lack of inflation, weak macro data and Japan&rsquo;s corporate exposure to emerging markets as good reasons why Japan&rsquo;s equity market should have played catch up. However, investors are ignoring a really significant divorce between Japanese earnings revisions and a number of macro indicators.
However, Japan, the world&#39;s third-largest economy, is home to some of the developed <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/16/07/8196852/down-but-not-out-japan-etfs-offer-value">world&#39;s least expensive stocks</a>. Some big-name institutions see more upside coming for Japanese equities as the post-election dollar rally continues and the yen falters.
<h3>Japan Tailwinds</h3>
Japan&#39;s &ldquo;latest tailwind comes from America, where Trump&rsquo;s shock election victory has fueled speculation that increased government spending will lead to higher U.S. interest rates and a stronger dollar. That&rsquo;s good news for Japan because it translates into a weaker yen and an improved earnings outlook for exporters like Toyota Motor Corp (ADR) (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/tm#NYSE">TM</a>). The Japanese currency has dropped 6 percent versus the greenback over the past month, more than any other major Asian currency,&rdquo; according to <a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/news/world-biggest-comeback-breathes-life-150001851.html">Bloomberg</a>.
<h3>A Historical Look</h3>
Throughout most of its history, DXJ has been levered to the Japanese exporter story and that remains the case today as consumer discretionary and industrial stocks combine for over 47 percent of the ETF&#39;s weight. Three of DXJ&#39;s top 10 holdings are automakers, a group that historically benefits from a weak yen.
Investors are starting to nibble at Japanese stocks again.
&ldquo;While international money managers sold a net $56 billion of the nation&rsquo;s stocks through the end of September, they&rsquo;ve since purchased almost $7.3 billion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg,&rdquo; reports the news agency.

Look Now: A Once Beloved Japan ETF Rises Again

Pete Najarian said on <a href="http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000558272">CNBC&#39;s Fast Money Halftime Report</a> that viewers should keep an eye on Altria Group Inc (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/mo#NYSE">MO</a>). He likes its dividend yield and he noticed huge call options buying in the name.

	Josh Brown sees an opportunity in the semiconductor space. He thinks that traders who missed the move higher can get in on the pullback.

	Stephanie Link thinks that ConAgra Foods Inc (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/cag#NYSE">CAG</a>) is a buy.

	Joe Terranova is a buyer of Guggenheim CurrencyShares Japanese (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/fxy#NYSE">FXY</a>). He thinks that the Japanese yen is a safe heaven in case the market continues to struggle. He also believes that Hawaiian Holdings, Inc.(NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/ha#NASDAQ">HA</a>) is a buy and he sees the stock above $50.

CNBC

Fast Money Halftime Report Final Trades For October 11

The Guggenheim CurrencyShares Japanese (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/fxy#NYSE">FXY</a>) is up 19 percent year-to-date, making it one of the best-performing currency exchange-traded funds. So it is not surprising that as the yen surges amid safe-haven demand, Japanese stocks are struggling.

	In the United States, ETFs are designed to benefit when the dollar rises against the yen, including the WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity Fund (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/dxj#NYSE">DXJ</a>), are being repudiated by investors. But, just as naysayers are apt to say currency hedged ETFs were too much of a good thing when the dollar was soaring, perhaps now is the time to revisit DXJ and friends when these funds are out of favor.
<h3>
	Revisiting DXJ</h3>

	On the surface, many investors might criticize the lack of inflation, weak macro data and Japan&rsquo;s corporate exposure to emerging markets as good reasons why Japan&rsquo;s equity market should have played catch up. However, investors are ignoring a really significant divorce between Japanese earnings revisions and a number of macro indicators.

	<bzrelatedlink>Related Link: <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/media/cnbc/16/07/8189328/fx-pro-forget-the-fed-and-brexit-focus-on-japan">FX Pro: Forget The Fed And Brexit, Focus On Japan</a></bzrelatedlink>

	Plus, there is no denying the fact that Japan, the world&#39;s third-largest economy, is home to some inexpensive stocks.

	&ldquo;In our view, this is true both from an absolute and relative perspective: <a href="http://www.wisdomtree.com/blog/index.php/glossary/#MSCI%20Japan%20Index">MSCI Japan</a> trades on a 1.1x <a href="http://www.wisdomtree.com/blog/index.php/glossary/#Price-to-book%20ratio">price-to-book (P/B) ratio</a>, which is in the bottom 10 percent range against its long-term history and well below the 2.0x for the <a href="http://www.wisdomtree.com/blog/index.php/glossary/#MSCI%20World%20Equity%20Index">MSCI World Index</a>. Japan&rsquo;s <a href="http://www.wisdomtree.com/blog/index.php/glossary/#Trailing%20Price-to-earnings%20%28P/E%29%20ratio">trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio</a> now stands at 14.2x. This is at the very bottom 2 percent against its history and well below the 20.2x for MSCI World,&rdquo; said WisdomTree <a href="https://www.wisdomtree.com/blog/index.php/japan-is-inexpensive-where-to-look-for-performance/?elqTrackId=55741c5f2cea430f9f33438c9951afd2&amp;elq=3c95f9813d1f49cabd8456b5be588a11&amp;elqaid=3864&amp;elqat=1&amp;elqCampaignId=1825">in a note out Thursday.</a>
<h3>
	Value And Value Traps</h3>

	Of course, there is usually a fine line between &ldquo;value&rdquo; and &ldquo;value trap.&rdquo; There are instances of international markets, developed and emerging, looking inexpensive and remaining so for prolonged periods of time because investors were leery of the perceived value being offered.

	Again, there are data points that bode well for Japanese stocks and ETFs such as DXJ. Those include growing dividends and rising share repurchase programs. Additionally, other metrics indicate DXJ could be a credible value play, not a value trap.

	&ldquo;While valuations are very attractive, performance ratios appear less so: Japan&rsquo;s <a href="http://www.wisdomtree.com/blog/index.php/glossary/#Return%20on%20Equity%20%28ROE%29">return on equity (ROE)</a> stands at 8 percent, which is not just below the 9 percent of the MSCI World but also at the 68 percent percentile mark&mdash;high by historical standards measured against its own history. Ditto for the <a href="http://www.wisdomtree.com/blog/index.php/glossary/#Dividend%20yields">dividend yield</a>, 2.5 percent currency, which is in the 93rd percentile compared to its history,&rdquo; added WisdomTree.

	For advisors and investors that like their wisdom simple, just remember the old investing maxim about buying when there is blood in the streets and doing the opposite of the herd. Not many investors are currently fans of Japanese stocks, which is almost an engraved invitation to embrace DXJ.

Down But Not Out: Japan ETFs Offer Value

Daniel Katzive is head of foreign exchange strategy for BNP Parisbas' North American unit and was a guest on <a href="http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000532030">CNBC's "Markets Now" segment</a> on Wednesday to discuss why investors need to pay a lot more attention to ongoing developments in Japan.
Katzive started off by stating that it is "premature" to call the bottom in the British pound. Furthermore, ongoing questions surrounding the country and its economy following the "Brexit" vote won't be answered for a few years.
He continued that the British pound needs to weaken further to attract large amounts of foreign investments. Meanwhile, the Bank of England is talking about lowering interest rates, renewing or adding to its quantitative easing program in the near term.
<bzrelatedlink>Related Link: <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/16/07/8181993/japanese-investors-begin-taking-on-exposure-to-foreign-c">Japanese Investors Begin Taking On Exposure To Foreign Currency Debt</a></bzrelatedlink>
All of these factors will continue putting pressure on the pound which already dipped below his near-term target of $1.30 per U.S. dollar.
Meanwhile, the market has "taken out any possibility" of the Federal Reserve announcing an interest rate hike in the near term. The market is also expecting incremental easing from other central banks of major economies worldwide.
The pro suggested that the Bank of Japan is definitely the central bank investors need to follow a lot closer following the recent strengthening of the yen and falling expectation for any rises in inflation. 
As such, it "makes sense" for the Bank of Japan to take action at the end of the month if not sooner.
<h3>A Few Related Stocks</h3>
<ul>
<li>iShares MSCI Japan ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/ewj#NYSE">EWJ</a>): Down roughly 3 percent over the past month.
</li><li>Guggenheim CurrencyShares Japanese (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/fxy#NYSE">FXY</a>): Up roughly 6 percent over the past month.
</li><li>WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity Fund (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/dxj#NYSE">DXJ</a>): Down roughly 12 percent over the past month. 
</li></ul>

FX Pro: Forget The Fed And Brexit, Focus On Japan

The negative interest rate environment in Japan coupled with depressed rates around the world has created an unprecedented investment dynamic among Japanese investors. According to Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco analyst Sean Creehan, more and more Japanese investors are choosing to make foreign investments directly in borrowed foreign currency.
&ldquo;Typically, Japanese institutional investors have funded their overseas investment with yen and exchanged them for dollars using long-term cross-currency swaps,&rdquo; Creehan explained in a new <a href="http://www.frbsf.org/banking/asia-program/pacific-exchange-blog/japanese-investors-go-abroad-with-borrowed-foreign-currency/">blog post</a>.
<bzrelatedlink>Related Link: <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/16/06/8172448/just-how-safe-are-u-s-stocks-post-brexit">Just How &#39;Safe&#39; Are U.S. Stocks Post-Brexit?</a></bzrelatedlink>
However, lately, the amount of debt issued by Japanese firms has skyrocketed. As of early June, Japanese firms had issued $52.6 billion in debt in 2016. That&rsquo;s roughly 50 percent more than last year&rsquo;s pace.
<img alt="" src="/files/u81483/f1-net-purchases-of-long-term-foreign-bonds-by-japanese-life-insurers.png" style="width: 480px; height: 343px;" />
Why are Japanese lenders opting to invest by borrowing in foreign currency? The combination of increasing costs related to currency hedging and historically low global interest rates means there is not enough margin to absorb the hedging costs.
&ldquo;Given Japan&rsquo;s new negative interest rate environment and a domestic economy that does not offer significant growth opportunity, Japanese investors are almost certain to continue their recent trend of overseas expansion,&rdquo; Creehan concluded.
So far this year, the PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/uup#NYSE">UUP</a>) is down 3.4 percent, while the Guggenheim Currency Shares Japanese (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/fxy#NYSE">FXY</a>) is up 16.8 percent.
Disclosure: The author holds no position in the stocks mentioned.

Analyst Ratings

Japanese Investors Begin Taking On Exposure To Foreign Currency Debt

What affect does the Japanese yen have on U.S. equities? According to Wells Fargo Securities Strategist Gina Martin Adams, the answer may be surprising.

	Speaking during Monday&#39;s segment <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2016-05-23/is-the-yen-the-biggest-risk-for-u-s-stocks">&quot;Bloomberg Markets,&quot;</a> the strategist began by pointing out the yen is &quot;representative of some very confusing inter-market trends with respect to U.S. stocks.&quot;

	&quot;The yen is rising and the dollar is falling,&quot; she explained. &quot;Yet U.S. Treasury yields weren&#39;t rising, TIPS spread stop rising so when you put all of that together you get a mix that is not that friendly for stocks usually.&quot;

	<bzrelatedlink>Related Link: <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/news/16/05/8013574/u-s-credit-card-debt-nears-1-trillion-record-level">U.S. Credit Card Debt Nears $1 Trillion Record Level</a></bzrelatedlink>

	Martin Adams added that U.S. stocks have recently undergone a correction, but the conversation is now shifting to central banking policies and what they will do across the world. As such, U.S. stocks are also dependent on global central bank policies, including the Bank of Japan and European Central Bank.

	She expanded that when Japan&#39;s central bank &quot;stepped in&quot; earlier this year, it resulted in a rally in the country&#39;s currency, which represents the opposite response from the market they had hoped for.

	&quot;It&#39;s not just the yen, it&#39;s central banks around the world and a volatility around the world and a lot of volatility in currencies that are plaguing US stocks more than anything else,&quot; she added.

Pro: Japan's Currency Poses Risks To U.S. Stocks

The Japanese yen fell to around 162 yen against the dollar, falling further to its lowest level since 1986, keeping markets wary of further government intervention.

USD/JPY Analysis: Strong Bullish Trend Despite Dollar Weakness

From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the currency pair USD/JPY is bullish.

Analytical Overview Of The Main Currency Pairs - Thursday, July 4

USD/JPY eased slightly as the Yen gets a much-needed break from getting pummeled by bears.

USD/JPY Softly Lower On Thursday, Easing Off The Gas Pedal After Edging Close To 162.00

Asian markets reverse gains, Nikkei slightly lower after touching record levels

The Swiss franc initially pulled back just a bit against the Japanese yen during the trading session on Thursday but then turned around to show signs of strength.

CHF/JPY Forecast: Swiss Franc Shows Strength

Markets across the world are reaching all-time highs as traders await the important US jobs report today.

Daily Market Outlook - Friday, July 5

USD/JPY falls slightly below 161.00 as the US Dollar is under pressure due to firm Fed rate-cut prospects. Fears of BoJ's intervention to support the Japanese Yen have intensified.

USD/JPY Corrects Slightly Below 161.00 As Japan's Intervention Fears Intensify, US NFP Eyed

From the technical analysis point of view, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair is bullish.

Analytical Overview Of The Main Currency Pairs - Friday, July 5

On Friday, June 5, the Dollar Index (DXY) hit a three-week low, while the euro showed its largest weekly gain against the dollar in a year. This was due to the US not performing as well as expected and Europe not faring as poorly.

Forex And Cryptocurrency Forecast for 08 – 12 July 2024

Week Ahead: Market Eyes 2 Fed Cuts This Year Ahead Of June CPI

ACTV

AFMC

AFSM

ARKK

ASHR

AVUV

BAPR

CHIQ

CQQQ

CWEB

CXSE

GBBEF

IVOO

IVOV

KURE

KWEB

MCHI

SPLV

SPMD

SPMO

SPMV

SPSM

SPUS

SPUU

SPVM

SPVU

SPXE

SPXL

SPXN

SPXS

SPXT

SPXV

SPYD

SPYG

SPYV

SPYX

SQEW

SQLV

SSLY

SSPY

SVAL

SYLD

TMDV

TPHD

TPLC

TPSC

UAUG

UJAN

UMAR

UMAY

UOCT

UPRO

USDU

USMC

USMF

USVM

YANG

YINN

일본 엔화는 수요일에 달러당 160엔을 넘었다. 이는 2024년 4월 말의 저점을 뛰어넘는 것으로, 이전에는 일본은행(BOJ)에서 <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/japanese-yen" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-google-interstitial="false">엔화 변동성을 억제</a>하기 위해 외환보유고를 판매한 적이 있었다.
Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FXY#NYSE">FXY</a>)로 추적되는 엔화는 현재 달러 대비 1987년 12월 이후 최저 수준으로 하락했으며, 지난 3년 동안 가치의 3분의 1이 감소했습니다. 이는 일본은행과 다른 주요 중앙은행들, 특히 연방준비제도(연준) 간의 금리 차이로 인한 지속적인 격차 때문이다.
6월 회의에서 일본은행은 예상대로 주요 단기 금리를 약 0%에서 0.1%로 유지하기로 만장일치로 결정했다. 이는 2007년 이후 첫 금리 인상과 3월에 8년간의 마이너스 금리를 종료한 이후였다.
더욱이, 이사회는 7월 회의에서 월 6조 엔의 채권 매입을 줄이는 것을 고려할 수도 있다고 시사했다.
일본은 4월 말부터 5월 말까지 약 613억 달러를 통화 개입에 지출했으며, 이 기간 동안 두 차례의 개입이 있었던 것으로 보인다.
지난주 미국 재무부는 일본을 외환 &#8216;모니터링 목록&#8217;에 추가했는데, 이 결정은 4~5월 엔화를 지원하기 위한 일본의 개입 때문이 아니라 목록의 세 가지 기계적 기준 중 두 가지를 충족했기 때문이다.
이 차트는 높은 달러-엔 환율을 보여주는 차트로, 이는 달러가 엔화에 대해 강세를 보이고 있다는 것을 시사한다.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="wp-image-406620" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/26100836/image-57-1024x500.png" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/26100836/image-57-1024x500.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/26100836/image-57-300x147.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/26100836/image-57-768x375.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/26100836/image-57-1536x750.png 1536w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/26100836/image-57.png 1920w" alt="" width="1024" height="500" /></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">분석가들의 반응</h3>
&#8220;엔화는 아마도 금요일에 발표될 도쿄 소비자물가지수(CPI)와 산업 생산 수치를 포함한 월간 데이터 발표를 앞두고 최근 저점을 계속 공격할 것이다&#8221;고 BBVA의 수석 전략가 알레한드로 콰드라도(Alejandro Cuadrado)가 썼다.
&#8220;미국 달러 대비 엔화는 여전히 높은 수준을 유지하고 있지만, 충격은 없다. 우리는 일본은행의 가능한 개입에 대한 경고가 여전히 유효하다는 생각을 확인한다&#8221;고 방카 IMI(Banca IMI)의 시장 전략가 루카 치고그니니(Luca Cigognini)가 말했습니다.
&#8220;일본 당국은 금요일 PCE(개인소비지출) 발표를 적어도 기다린 후 개입 여부를 결정할 것이다. 가격이 그 전에 160을 돌파하더라도 말이다&#8221;라고 뉴욕에 있는 미쓰비시 UFJ 신탁은행의 영업 및 거래 책임자 다카후미 오노데라(Takafumi Onodera)가 말했다.
&#8220;이 결정은 이제 하나의 변수보다는 엔화 가치 하락 속도와 수준이라는 두 가지 변수에 달려 있다.&#8221;라고 씨티그룹의 애널리스트 오사무 타카시마(Osamu Takashima)가 쓴 메모에 적혀 있다.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">규칙이 깨어지는&#8230;</h3>
눈에 띄는 발전은 미 국채와 일본 국채 간의 10년물 수익률 스프레드에서 달러- 환율이 최근 분리된 것이다.
2024년 5월까지 이 상관관계는 거의 완벽하게 유지되었으며, 수익률 스프레드가 확대되면 달러-엔 환율에 상승 압력이 가해지고 반대의 경우도 마찬가지였다.
그러나 지난 두 달 동안 미국과 일본 간의 10년물 수익률 스프레드가 좁아졌음에도 불구하고 달러-엔 환율의 하락으로 이어지지 않았으며, 엔화의 가치가 계속해서 떨어지고 있는 것이다.
그렇다면 이 때문에 달러-엔 환율을 거래하는 데 있어 기존의 유용한 규칙이 더 이상 적용되지 않고 있는 것일까?
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="wp-image-406631" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/26101236/image-58-1024x500.png" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/26101236/image-58-1024x500.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/26101236/image-58-300x147.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/26101236/image-58-768x375.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/26101236/image-58-1536x750.png 1536w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/26101236/image-58.png 1920w" alt="" width="1024" height="500" /></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">‘무제한 채권 매입이 가져올 결과에 대한 경고 이야기&#8217;</h3>
현재 트레이더들은 일본은행이 금리를 크게 인상할 수 없으며, 외환보유액을 매각하는 개입을 장기적으로 지속할 수 없다는 것을 알고 일본은행의 회복력을 시험하고 있다.
브루킹스 연구소의 글로벌 경제 및 개발 프로그램 선임 연구원인 로빈 브룩스(Robin Brooks)에 따르면, "엔화 약세는 일본의 매우 높은 부채에서 비롯되며, 이는 중앙은행이 무제한 채권 매입을 통해 장기 국채 수익률을 억제하도록 강제한다."
이 경제학자는 "일본은 통제되지 않은 부채 증가의 결과에 대한 경고적인 사례이다"라고 덧붙였다.
일본은 더 이상 과거의 저인플레이션 예외국이 아니며, 핵심 인플레이션이 2%에 도달했다. 최근 엔화 가치 하락으로 인한 인플레이션 충격은 이제 덜 환영받을 수 있다.
브룩스는 "국가는 중앙은행을 사용하여 국채 수익률을 억제할 수 있지만, 이는 단지 약한 부채 역학을 통화 가치 하락으로 전가하는 것일 뿐이다"라고 말했다.
최근 일본 재무성은 2022년 9월과 10월에 이루어진 것보다 규모가 훨씬 큰 환율의 새로운 무담보 채권 매입을 위해 반복적으로 개입해왔다.
그러나 이러한 노력들은 한계가 있었다. 왜냐하면 일본은행이 수익률 상한선을 유지하기 위해 국채를 매입하는 것이 엔화를 간접적으로 약화시키기 때문에, 재무성의 엔화 지원 시도를 상쇄시키게 되었다.
이 상황은 사실상 두 기관의 노력을 상쇄시키며, 일본 내에서의 엔화 약세에 대한 분열된 입장을 드러내고 있다.
로빈 브룩스는 &#8220;이러한 분열된 정책 메시지로 인해 CFTC 포지셔닝 데이터에 따르면 투기적 엔화 숏 포지션은 크게 줄어들지 않았다&#8221;고 언급했다.
아래 차트에서 보듯이, 엔화에 대한 순 비상업적 포지션은 현재 147,753 계약의 숏 포지션으로, 이는 역사적 평균보다 매우 낮은 수치이다.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="wp-image-406641" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/26101733/image-59-1024x500.png" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/26101733/image-59-1024x500.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/26101733/image-59-300x147.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/26101733/image-59-768x375.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/26101733/image-59-1536x750.png 1536w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/26101733/image-59.png 1920w" alt="" width="1024" height="500" /></figure>
다음 글을 읽어보세요:
<ul>
<li> <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/24/06/39480978/54-of-japanese-institutional-investors-plan-to-invest-in-crypto-in-the-next-3-years">일본의 기관투자자들 중 54%가 앞으로 3년 이내 암호화폐투자 계획</a></li>
</ul>
Image generated using artificial intelligence via Midjourney.

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Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust

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Latest news for Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (ARCA:FXY)

Wednesday, June 26, 2024