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The Trust holds gold bars and from time to time, issues Baskets in exchange for deposits of gold and distributes gold in connection with redemptions of Baskets. The investment objective of the Trust is for the Shares to reflect the performance of the price of gold bullion, less the Trusts expenses. The Sponsor believes that, for many investors, the Shares represent a cost-effective investment in gold.

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연방준비은행(연준)이 면밀히 관찰하고 있는 인플레이션 보고서인 개인 소비 지출(PCE) 물가 지수의 4월 데이터는 5월 31일에 발표되었으며 6월에 새로운 시장 랠리를 촉발하여 주요 지수를 사상 최고치로 끌어올렸다.

지난 PCE 지수로 시장이 6월 최고치를 기록: 다시 가능할까? 주목해야 할 5가지 ETF

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억만장자 투자자인 브리지워터 어소시에이츠(Bridgewater Associates)의 설립자인 레이 달리오(Ray Dalio)는 최근 고조되는 미중 간 긴장과 증가하는 글로벌 위험에 직면해 다각화의 중요성을 강조했다. 블룸버그의 보도에 의하면 달리오는 홍콩에서 열린 그리니치 경제 포럼(Greenwich Economic Forum)에서 연설하면서 향후 몇 년간 심각한 경제적, 정치적 격변이 일어날 가능성을 강조했다.

레이 달리오는 미중 경제제재에 대해 경고하며 다양성의 중요성을 강조

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데이비드 아인호른(David Einhorn) 헤지펀드 기업 그린라이트 캐피털(Greenlight Capital)의 골드 투자가 1년 전보다 60% 더 높아졌다.



아인호른은 24일 CNBC의 &#34;파워 런치(Power Lunch)&#34;에서 중계된 2024 손 소험 투자 컨퍼런스(2024 Sohn Investment Conference) 인터뷰에서 물가 상승 대비 골드를 택했다고

그린라이트의 데이비드 아인혼은 인플레이션 대비로 금 매입

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GoldMining Inc

ETRACS Gold Shares Covered Call ETNs due February 2, 2033

SPDR Gold MiniShares Trust

Idaho Champion Gold Mines Canada Inc

Global X Funds LOBAL X GOLD EXPLORERS ETF NEW

WIIM

Gold and silver are trading higher following US employment data.

Stocks and ETFs gained modestly on Friday morning after the U.S. jobs <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/07/39620397/june-jobs-report-preview-cooling-labor-market-trends-may-further-bolster-rate-cut-h">report for June</a>, which showed that both the unemployment rate, at 4.1%, and the number of unemployed people. at 6.8 million, changed little. 
Unemployment has risen from the 3.6% unemployment registered in June 2023, when 6 million people were out of work, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Traders are assigning a 71.8% chance the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates at its September meeting, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool.
Also Read: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/07/39616016/private-employers-add-150-000-jobs-in-june-less-than-expected-job-growth-solid-but">Private Employers Add 150,000 Jobs In June, Less Than Expected: Job Growth &#8216;Solid, But Not Broad-Based&#8217;</a>
Restricting the screener to stocks with a market cap above $50 billion, here are the top stock performers in Friday&#8217;s premarket session following the jobs report, according to <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/pro/register/?utm_source=BZprocontent062824&amp;t=be2bearmibe3na1" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Benzinga Pro</a>.
<ul>
<li>Tesla Inc. jumped 1.77% to $250.41 in premarket trading.</li>
<li>SAP SE (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SAP#NYSE">SAP</a>) moved up 1.4% to $205.94.</li>
<li>NXP Semiconductors N.V. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NXPI#NASDAQ">NXPI</a>) gained 0.66% to $274.10.</li>
<li>Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSM#NYSE">TSM</a>) improved 1.32% to $182.89.</li>
</ul>
Exchange traded funds rallying after the jobs data were:
<ul>
<li>MicroSectors Solactive FANG Innovation 3X Leveraged ETNs (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BULZ#NYSE">BULZ</a>) gained 1.45%.</li>
<li>Direxion Daily NYSE FANG+ Bull 2X Shares (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FNGG#NYSE">FNGG</a>) moved up 2.2%.</li>
<li>SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>) improved 1%.</li>
</ul>
Bill Adams, chief economist for Comerica Bank, noted that he unemployment rate rose in June to the highest since late 2021, but he also said the big downward revisions to job reports from March and April made the recent trend look considerably weaker.
&#8220;The June jobs report was pretty good, and won't make the Fed cut interest rates at their decision this month,&#8221; he said.
&#8220;But a rate cut is likely at the following decision in September.&#8221;
Read Now:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/06/39252500/fed-meeting-preview-economists-predict-steady-rates-in-june-fewer-cuts-ahead">Fed Meeting Preview: Economists Predict Steady Rates In June, Fewer Cuts Ahead</a></li>
</ul>
Photo via Shutterstock.

Movers

MicroSectors FANG & Innovation 3x Leveraged ETN

BULZ

FNGG

NXPI

4 Stocks, 3 ETFs Trading Higher After June Jobs Report

On Wednesday, July 3rd, U.S. stock markets closed mixed. The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq reached record highs, driven by hopes of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September due to softening economic data. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell slightly, impacted by declines in healthcare and consumer stocks.
The ADP Employment report and weekly jobless claims data indicated a softening labor market ahead of the highly anticipated non-farm payrolls report.
Most S&amp;P 500 sectors closed positively, with leading gains in materials, IT, and utilities, while healthcare and consumer staples declined.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.06% and closed at 39,308.00. The S&amp;P 500 gained 0.51%, ending the day at 5,537.02, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.88%, finishing the session at 18,188.30.
Asian Markets Today
<ul>
<li>On Friday, Japan&#8217;s Nikkei 225 declined 0.07%, ending the session at 40,893.50, led by losses in the Chemical, Petroleum &amp; Plastic, Rubber, and Banking sectors.</li>
<li>Australia&#8217;s S&amp;P/ASX 200 closed lower at 0.12%, ending the day at 7,822.30, led by losses in the Metals &amp; Mining, Materials and Resources sectors.</li>
<li>India&#8217;s Nifty 50 closed higher by 0.09% at 24,323.85, and Nifty 500 rose 0.32% to 22,987.65.</li>
<li>China&#8217;s Shanghai Composite was down 0.26%, ending the session at 2,949.93, and the Shenzhen CSI fell 0.43%, closing at 3,431.06.</li>
<li>Hong Kong&#8217;s Hang Seng ended the session lower by 1.13% at 17,825.08.</li>
<li>Chinese stocks fell following the implementation of EU tariffs on Chinese EV imports and rising China-Taiwan tensions, heightening trade war concerns.</li>
</ul>
Eurozone at 06:15 AM ET
<ul>
<li>The European STOXX 50 index gained 0.55%.</li>
<li>Germany&#8217;s DAX rose 0.91%.</li>
<li>France&#8217;s CAC was up 0.45%.</li>
<li>U.K.&#8217;s FTSE 100 traded higher by 0.21%. The Labour Party has officially won the U.K. election with enough seats in the 2024 general election to have a majority in parliament. The vote counting still continues.</li>
</ul>
Commodities at 06:15 AM ET
<ul>
<li>Crude Oil WTI was trading higher by 0.01% at $83.89/bbl, and Brent was down 0.14% at $87.32 bbl.</li>
<li>Natural Gas declined 2.85% to $2.349.</li>
<li>Gold was trading higher by 0.06% at $2,371.15, Silver fell 0.08% to $30.817, and Copper gained 2.88% to $4.6640.</li>
</ul>
US Futures at 06:15 AM ET
Dow futures were up 0.05%, S&amp;P 500 futures rose 0.04%, and Nasdaq 100 Futures gained 0.11%.
Forex at 06:15 AM ET
The U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.17% to 105.17, USD/JPY was down 0.35% at 160.69, and USD/AUD slid 0.15% to 1.4845. The dollar hovered near a three-week low ahead of payroll data.
Photo by Pavel Bobrovskiy via Shutterstock

Emerging Markets

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ADIV

AGOV

ASHR

BBEU

BOIL

CQQQ

PowerShares DBmmodity Index Optimum Yield Diversified Fund

EEMA

FLAX

CurrencyShares British Pound Sterling Trust

IEMG

IEUR

KraneShares Trust KraneShares S&P Pan Asia Dividend Aristocrats Index ETF

KDIV

SPEM

USDU

Asia In Red, UK Advances As Labour Party Wins Majority, While US Dollar Dips Ahead Of Payrolls Data - Global Markets Today While US Slept

Market Summary

General

PARA

PARAA

TSLA

Benzinga Market Summary: Paramount And Skydance Reportedly Approach Deal, US Private Job Creation Falls Short Of Expectations, Tesla Continues Higher, Gold And Silver Surge

The U.S. labor market doesn&#8217;t appear as tight and hot as a couple of months ago, with the June&#8217;s Employment Situation report likely to show an overall cooling trend from a very <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/large-cap/24/06/39225961/job-market-booms-in-may-payrolls-surge-more-than-expected-wages-increase">strong performance in May. </a>
Slated for release Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET, the official jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics is expected to reveal a decline in nonfarm payroll growth and a slowdown in earnings momentum.
On Tuesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell suggested the labor market <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/bonds/24/07/39600702/fed-chair-powell-warns-of-unsustainable-us-debt-path-downplays-risks-of-possible-trump-attacks-on-c">is &#8220;cooling off appropriately,&#8221;</a> and the Fed will monitor these developments, ready to act if conditions warrant.
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">June Jobs Report Estimates: What Economists Expect</h1>
<ul>
<li>Economists predict a decline in the pace of monthly new nonfarm payrolls from 272,000 in May to 189,000 in June. Estimates range from 150,000 to 237,000, according to Econoday.</li>
<li>The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4%.</li>
<li>Average hourly earnings are anticipated to rise at a 0.3% month-over-month pace, a deceleration from May&#8217;s 0.4%.</li>
<li>On an annual basis, pay growth is projected to decline from 4.1% to 3.9%.</li>
</ul>
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Conflicting Data Points To Potential Surprises</h1>
Recent economic data have been mixed, suggesting potential surprises in the June jobs report compared to economists&#8217; expectations.
The ADP&#8217;s National Employment Report, which uses payroll data from Automatic Data Processing Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ADP#NYSE">ADP</a>) and focuses on private employment, revealed 150,000 job additions in June, below May&#8217;s 157,000 and the forecasted 160,000. Pay growth slowed, with job stayers reporting a 4.9% year-on-year increase.
Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP, stated that job growth was solid but &#8220;not broad-based,&#8221; noting that June&#8217;s numbers would have been disappointing without a rebound in leisure and hospitality hiring.
Read also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/07/39616016/private-employers-add-150-000-jobs-in-june-less-than-expected-job-growth-solid-but-">Private Employers Add 150,000 Jobs In June, Less Than Expected: Job Growth &#8216;Solid, But Not Broad-Based&#8217;</a>
Bill Adams, chief economist for Comerica Bank, highlighted that private job growth was cool in June according to ADP and the government jobs report is also expected to show the least pay growth since 2021.
Comerica forecasts nonfarm payroll employment to increase by 220,000 in June, with the unemployment rate edging up to 4.1% from 4.0%.
Adams also noted the ADP data don&#8217;t capture the significant rise in self-employment due to gig work and entrepreneurship, which are growing faster than in the pre-pandemic period.
Overall, the ADP and jobless claims reports reinforce the impression that the labor market has cooled and is likely to cool further in the second half of 2024.
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Services Sector Jitters</h1>
The most conflicting indications ahead of Friday&#8217;s jobs report came from services sector surveys by S&amp;P Global and the Institute for Supply Management (ISM).
S&amp;P Global&#8217;s Services Purchasing Managers&#8217; Index (PMI) for June showed the strongest expansion for U.S. services activity since April 2022, extending the growth streak to 17 consecutive months. In contrast, the ISM Services PMI reported the worst contraction in over four years last month.
Employment conditions also sharply differed in the two surveys. S&amp;P Global&#8217;s Services PMI indicated employment returned to growth after two months of contraction, while the ISM reported a faster pace of contraction in the services labor market.
"U.S. service sector companies reported an encouragingly solid end to the second quarter, with output rising at the fastest rate in over two years. Both new order inflows and hiring have accelerated, the latter buoyed by firms taking on more workers in response to rising backlogs of work,&#8221; Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence, said.
Steve Miller, chair of the ISM Services Business Survey Committee, commented, "The decrease in the composite index in June is a result of notably lower business activity, a contraction in new orders for the second time since May 2020, and continued contraction in employment.&#8221;
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Weaker Jobs Data May Fuel Rate Cut Wagers</h1>
On Thursday, market reactions highlighted the significance investors placed on the ISM Services PMI. Treasury yields plummeted by 8 to 9 basis points on the long end as traders increased bets on Fed rate cuts.
The probability of a rate cut in September climbed from 65% to 73% following the release, with 52 basis points of cuts already anticipated by the end of the year.
Bonds rallied, with the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) soaring 1.4%, while the U.S. dollar weakened substantially, down 0.5%. 
Lower yields and the weaker greenback aided gold prices, with the precious metal, as tracked by the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>), up 1.4%, eyeing its best-performing session since mid-May.
Now Read: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/07/39618958/us-services-sector-activity-experiences-largest-contraction-in-over-4-years-gold-ra">US Services Sector Activity Experiences Largest Contraction In Over 4 Years: Gold Rallies, Dollar Tumbles As Traders Raise Rate Cut Bets</a></li>
</ul>
Photo: Shutterstock

Analyst Color

Treasuries

June Jobs Report Preview: Cooling Labor Market Trends May Further Bolster Rate Cut Hopes

Business sentiment in the U.S. services sector plummeted in June, missing economic estimates by a wide margin and indicating that the pace of economic growth slowed down markedly at the <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/ism">end of last quarter. </a>
The Purchasing Managers&#8217; Index for the services sector, as measured by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), marked the worst contraction since May 2020.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">June ISM Services PMI Report: Key Highlights</h3>
<ul>
<li>The ISM Services PMI fell from 53.8% to 48.8% in June, sharply below market expectations of 52.5% as monitored by Econoday.</li>
<li>The subindex for Business Activity fell from 61.2% to 49.6% in June. </li>
<li>The subindex for New Orders entered contraction after 17 straight months of expansion, falling from 54.1% in May to 47.3% in June. The outcome fell short of the 53.6% expected.</li>
<li>The subindex for Prices Paid eased from 58.1% to 56.3%, slightly below the predicted 56.7%, indicating a marginal improvement in price inputs paid by services providers.</li>
<li>The subindex for Employment contracted at a faster pace compared to May, falling from 47.1% to 46.1%, missing the expected 49%. </li>
</ul>
Chart: Services Sector Activity Tumbles The Most Since May 2020
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="500" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/03102122/image-1-1-1024x500.png" alt="" class="wp-image-418726" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/03102122/image-1-1-1024x500.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/03102122/image-1-1-300x147.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/03102122/image-1-1-768x375.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/03102122/image-1-1-1536x750.png 1536w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/03102122/image-1-1.png 1920w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
&#8220;The decrease in the composite index in June is a result of notably lower business activity, a contraction in new orders for the second time since May 2020 and continued contraction in employment.&#8221; Steve Miller, chair of the ISM Services Business Survey Committee, said. 
Miller highlighted that survey respondents report flat or lower business conditions, and while price pressures are fading, &#8220;some commodities have significantly higher costs.&#8221; 
Respondents also indicated that the weaker supplier delivery performance is attribute to transportation challenges, and not to demand gains.
Also read: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/07/39616016/private-employers-add-150-000-jobs-in-june-less-than-expected-job-growth-solid-but-">Private Employers Add 150,000 Jobs In June, Less Than Expected: Job Growth &#8216;Solid, But Not Broad</a><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/07/39616016/private-employers-add-150-000-jobs-in-june-less-than-expected-job-growth-solid-but-">-Based&#8217;</a>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Market Reactions: Stocks Hold Gains, Bond Yields Rise Again</h3>
U.S. stocks inched higher in reaction to the bleak ISM Services PMI report, bond yields fell markedly, and the dollar weakened as traders raised their wagers on upcoming Fed interest rate cuts.
<ul>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 Index, as tracked by the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>), was 0.2% higher at 10:15 a.m. in New York.</li>
<li>The tech-heavy Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>) rose by 0.2%.</li>
<li>The blue-chip SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DIA#NYSE">DIA</a>) was flat. </li>
<li>Long-dated Treasury yields saw sharp declines, with the 30-year yield down by 9 basis points to 4.52%, pushing the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) up by 1.4%.</li>
<li>The U.S. dollar tumbled, with the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>), down 0.5%.</li>
<li>Gold, as tracked by the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>), rallied 1.5%. </li>
</ul>
Read Next: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/07/39605542/goldman-sachs-10-reasons-why-stock-risks-rise-in-the-second-half-of-2024">Goldman Sachs: 10 Reasons Why Stock Risks Rise In The Second Half Of 2024</a></li>
</ul>
Photo: Shutterstock

SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust

US Services Sector Activity Experiences Largest Contraction In Over 4 Years: Gold Rallies, Dollar Tumbles As Traders Raise Rate Cut Bets

Gold and silver are trading higher amid a drop in the dollar as investors assess softer-than-expected employment data, which could impact Fed policy.

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<img alt="" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/2024-06-28_08h43_52.png" style="height:385px; width:700px" />
<h3>PCE</h3>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-market-pce-inflation-data-presidential-debate-spy-mc-06282024">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (ARCA:SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&amp;P 500 (SPX).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>The chart shows that the stock market is attempting to break to a new high.</li>
<li>RSI on the chart shows that there is a technical set up for the stock market to go higher.</li>
<li>The chart shows that the stock market is significantly above the support zone.&nbsp;This indicates that buying here does not have a favorable risk reward ratio.</li>
<li>The chart shows low volume.&nbsp;This indicates a lack of conviction.</li>
<li>We previously shared with you that economists have become good at predicting the Fed&rsquo;s favorite inflation gauge PCE.&nbsp;PCE data came as expected.&nbsp;Here are the details:
<ul>
<li>Headline PCE came at 0.0% vs. 0.0% consensus.</li>
<li>Core PCE came at 0.1% vs. 0.1% consensus.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>The U.S. economy is 70% consumer based.&nbsp;For this reason, prudent investors pay attention to personal income and personal spending.&nbsp;Personal spending dropped.&nbsp;This is inline with the other data of the consumer pulling back that we have been sharing with you.&nbsp; Here are the details:
<ul>
<li>Personal spending came at 0.2% vs. 0.3% consensus.</li>
<li>Personal income came at 0.5% vs. 0.4% consensus.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>First and foremost, The Arora Report is politically agnostic.&nbsp;The Arora Report strives to be objective and rigorously analytical to help investors.&nbsp;To make money in the markets, it is important for investors to separate their political views from investing.&nbsp; Here are the key points:
<ul>
<li>The presidential debate has thrown huge uncertainty in the American economy and U.S.&rsquo;s international standing.</li>
<li>Prudent investors should wait for the air to clear post debate.</li>
<li>There will be winning and losing investments from the election.</li>
<li>Depending upon what happens over the coming days, changes may be made in the portfolios.</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, if nothing changes, the Magnificent Seven stocks,other mega cap stocks, and fossil fuel energy stocks are the winners post debate; clean energy stocks, environmental stocks, and Chinese stocks are losers; and companies that compete with Chinese companies are the winners.</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, if nothing changes, the U.S. dollar is a potential loser and gold is a potential winner.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Quarter end window dressing continues.</li>
<li>As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the protection band. The protection band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.</li>
</ul>
<h3>France</h3>
The first round of French elections will take place this weekend.&nbsp;The far right National Rally is projected to make gains.&nbsp;President Macron&rsquo;s party is projected to lose.&nbsp;There are significant implications from the French elections for investors.&nbsp;Please see prior Capsules for details.
<h3>Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h3>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Apple Inc (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/aapl#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>), Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/amzn#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>), NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/nvda#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>), and Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/tsla#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/msft#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/goog#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>), and&nbsp;Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/meta#NASDAQ">META</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are mixed in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (ARCA:SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/qqq#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h3>Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h3>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ. &nbsp;Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil. The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (ARCA:GLD). The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (ARCA:SLV). &nbsp;The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (ARCA:USO).
<h3>Bitcoin</h3>
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) is range bound.
<h3>Protection Band And What To Do Now</h3>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp;The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp;If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp;A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp;When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h3>Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h3>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of seven year duration or less.&nbsp;Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.
This article is from an unpaid external contributor. It does not represent Benzinga&#39;s reporting and has not been edited for content or accuracy.

$BTC

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Huge Post Debate Uncertainty For Investors, New Data On Fed's Favorite Inflation Gauge And Personal Spending

The inflation report that&#8217;s closely watched by the Federal Reserve — the Personal Consumption Expenditure price index — was published on May 31 for April data and sparked a fresh market rally in June, pushing major indexes to <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/inflation">their all-time highs</a>.
As traders brace for Friday&#8217;s PCE price index report for May, scheduled for release at 8:30 a.m. ET, many are wondering whether new favorable inflation data could bring the bulls back to Wall Street after some mixed <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/24/06/39532797/stocks-show-modest-gains-ahead-of-feds-inflation-report-chipmakers-struggle-while-gold-and-bitco">performance in recent sessions.</a>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">May&#8217;s PCE Report: What Do Economists Expect?</h3>
The PCE price index is expected to decrease from 2.7% year-on-year in April to 2.6% in May, according to economist consensus data gathered by Econoday. 
On a monthly basis, the index is forecasted to rise at a 0.1% rate, down from the previous 0.3%. 
The core PCE price index is projected to drop from 2.8% to 2.6% year-on-year in May, potentially reaching its lowest level since March 2021. 
Monthly, it is expected to slow from 0.2% to 0.1%.
If PCE inflation falls as expected or even more, it could bolster investor expectations of rate cuts, potentially reigniting hopes for a move as early as September, and would be welcomed by markets.
Traders are assigning a 65% chance on a Fed rate cut in September. Overall, there are 50 basis points — equivalent to two rate cuts — priced into year-end.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Fed&#8217;s Favorite PCE Report Arrives Friday: What Happened Last Time?</h3>
In April, the headline PCE inflation rate remained steady at 2.7% year-on-year. The core PCE price index also matched expectations with a 2.8% year-on-year increase, though it came in slightly lower than monthly estimates (0.2% vs. 0.3%).
Data on personal spending and personal income came in slightly softer than predicted, fueling expectations that the economy was cooling down and that inflation pressures would continue to ease.
This sustained expectations of an increasing likelihood of the Fed delivering two rate cuts by the end of the year.
Stocks reacted positively to April&#8217;s PCE report. The S&amp;P 500, as tracked by the SPDR S&amp;P 500 (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>), rallied 0.9% on that day. 
Notably, the data was a key turning point for a bullish trend reversal in June, as the chart below retrieved from Benzinga Pro shows.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="458" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/27120704/image-61-1024x458.png" alt="" class="wp-image-409213" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/27120704/image-61-1024x458.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/27120704/image-61-300x134.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/27120704/image-61-768x344.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/27120704/image-61-1536x687.png 1536w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/27120704/image-61.png 1920w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Other Key ETFs To Watch Friday</h3>
Other than the broader stock market, traders will also be closely monitoring other key asset classes to gauge the overall market&#8217;s reaction to the PCE inflation report, including:
<ol>
<li>The U.S. Dollar Index: Tracked by the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>). The dollar may weaken if inflation comes in below consensus estimates, and strengthen if it exceeds expectations, in reactions to market interest rate expectations. </li>
<li>Long-dated U.S. Treasury Bonds: Measured by the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>). A lower-than-expected PCE report is likely to push bond yields down, driving up the value of Treasury-related ETFs, and vice versa.</li>
<li>Gold Prices: Monitored through the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>). Gold typically moves inversely to the dollar and yields. A cooler-than-expected PCE report could increase expectations for Fed rate cuts, enhancing gold&#8217;s appeal.</li>
<li>The Russell 2000 Index: Replicated by the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IWM#NYSE">IWM</a>). Small caps, which have significantly underperformed the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 this year, may benefit from lower inflation rates as the pressure from high interest rates, which affect them more than large-cap stocks, would diminish.</li>
</ol>
Read Now: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/macro-notification/24/06/39527471/gdp-growth-upwardly-revised-in-q1-but-consumer-spending-weakens-continuing-jobless-cla">GDP Growth Upwardly Revised In Q1 But Consumer Spending Weakens, Continuing Jobless Claims Hit Nearly 3-Year Highs: Thursday&#8217;s Economic Digest</a></li>
</ul>

Last Inflation Report Pushed Markets To Record Highs In June: Could It Happen Again Friday? 5 ETFs To Watch

Wall Street experienced a subdued trading day on Thursday, as traders likely chose to remain on the sidelines in anticipation of Friday&#8217;s release of the Federal <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/24/06/39513292/feds-preferred-inflation-gauge-set-to-drop-to-38-month-low-this-could-provide-the">Reserve&#8217;s preferred inflation gauge.</a>
In regulatory news, U.S. banks successfully passed the Federal Reserve&#8217;s 2024 stress tests. The results demonstrated that all analyzed institutions could maintain minimum capital requirements even in the face of a severe economic shock. Notably, regional banks, as tracked by the SPDR S&amp;P Regional Banking ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/KRE#NYSE">KRE</a>), performed relatively better overall compared to their larger counterparts. 
As of midday trading in New York, major indices showed marginal gains, with small caps outperforming large-cap indices. 
The semiconductor sector continued to face headwinds, with the iShares Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SOXX#NASDAQ">SOXX</a>) down 0.7%, eyeing its fifth negative session in the last six. Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>) declined almost 2%.
Treasury yields moved lower, reflecting increased demand for bonds ahead of the key inflation report. The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond fell by 4 basis points to 4.29%, following an 8 basis-point increase on Wednesday. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) rose 0.5%.
In the commodities market, lower yields and a slightly weaker dollar spurred rebounds. Gold, tracked by the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>), gained 1.2%, erasing Wednesday&#8217;s losses, while crude inched 0.7% higher. 
Cryptocurrencies also saw gains, with Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) up 1.3% and Solana (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/sol/usd">SOL</a>) surging over 8% following VanEck&#8217;s filing for <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/24/06/39528468/vaneck-files-solana-etf-application-sol-rallies-6">a Solana ETF application.</a>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Thursday&#8217;s Performance In Major US Indices, ETFs</h3>
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Major Indices</td>
<td>Price</td>
<td>1-day %chg</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Russell 2000</td>
<td>2,020.84</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nasdaq 100</td>
<td>19,802.54</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Dow Jones</td>
<td>39,220.82</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>S&amp;P 500</td>
<td>5,481.94</td>
<td>0.1 %</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Updated at 12:51 p.m. ET</figcaption></figure>
According to&nbsp;<a href="http://www.benzinga.com/pro/register/?utm_source=BZprocontent062824&amp;t=be2bearmibe3na1">Benzinga Pro&nbsp;data</a>:
<ul>
<li>The&nbsp;SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>)&nbsp;was 0.1% higher to $545.95.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DIA#NYSE">DIA</a>)&nbsp;was 0.2% higher to $391.94.</li>
<li>The tech-heavy&nbsp;Invesco QQQ Trust&nbsp;(ARCA:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/qqq" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener"></a><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/qqq" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener"></a>QQQ) was 0.2% higher to $481.55.</li>
<li>Sector-wise, the&nbsp;Consumer Discretionary&nbsp;Select Sector SPDR Fund&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLY#NYSE">XLY</a>)&nbsp;outperformed, up by 0.5%, while the&nbsp;Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLP#NYSE">XLP</a>) lagged, falling 0.5%.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Thursday&#8217;s Stock Movers</h3>
<ul>
<li>Salesforce Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CRM#NASDAQ">CRM</a>) rallied 6%, marking the best performance within the S&amp;P 500. </li>
<li>Goldman Sachs Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GS#NYSE">GS</a>) fell 2.3%, in reaction to <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/06/39525918/major-banks-fall-short-in-feds-2024-stress-test-results-the-market-will-view-the-re">the Fed&#8217;s stress tests.</a> </li>
<li>Among regional banks First Foundations Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FFWM#NYSE">FFWM</a>) and Dime Community Bancshares Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DCOM#NASDAQ">DCOM</a>) topped gains, up 5.9% and 4%, respectively. </li>
<li>Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>) increased by 2.2% after unveiling a new section on its website focused on budget-friendly fashion and lifestyle products, facilitating direct shipping from Chinese sellers to U.S. consumers. Chinese e-commerce platforms&nbsp;PDD Holdings Inc&nbsp;(NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PDD#NASDAQ">PDD</a>), JD.com (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/JD#NASDAQ">JD</a>) and Alibaba Group Holding (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BABA#NASDAQ">BABA</a>) fell 4%, 3.8% and 1.9%, respectively. </li>
<li>Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/WBA#NASDAQ">WBA</a>) tumbled 25%, in reaction to quarterly earnings. </li>
<li>Other stocks reacting to company earnings were Micron Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MU#NASDAQ">MU</a>), down 6.4%, Jefferies Financial Group Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/JEF#NYSE">JEF</a>), up 6.7%, Levi Strauss &amp; Co. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/LEVI#NYSE">LEVI</a>), down 16.5%, McCormick &amp; Co. Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MKC#NYSE">MKC</a>), up 4.6%, Acuity Brands, Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AYI#NYSE">AYI</a>) up 0.9%, The Simply Good Foods Company (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SMPL#NASDAQ">SMPL</a>), down 1.7%.</li>
</ul>
Read Next:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/06/39530805/microns-q3-earnings-8-analysts-optimistic-about-ai-growth-predict-success-in-advanc">Micron&#8217;s Q3 Earnings: 8 Analysts Optimistic About AI Growth, Predict Success In Advanced Memory Technology</a></li>
</ul>
Photo: Shutterstock

Large Cap

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SOXX

Select Sector SPDR-Consumer Discretionary

Stocks Show Modest Gains Ahead Of Fed's Inflation Report; Chipmakers Struggle, While Gold And Bitcoin Rebound: What's Driving Markets Thursday?

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<img alt="" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/2024-06-27_09h08_34.png" style="height:392px; width:624px" />
<h3>AI Expectations</h3>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-market-ai-expectations-presidential-debate-mu-mc-06272024">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of Micron stock (MU).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>This article is about the big picture, not an individual stock. The chart of MU stock is being used to illustrate the point.</li>
<li>MU has become a favorite AI stock of Wall Street.</li>
<li>The chart shows that MU stock has fallen after earnings.</li>
<li>MU reported good earnings, but the stock fell because Micron&rsquo;s guiding revenue was inline with consensus.&nbsp;Whisper numbers were for MU to guide higher than the consensus.</li>
<li>The chart shows that MU is now below the trendline.</li>
<li>The chart shows the volume was high going into earnings, indicating the market&rsquo;s conviction for the stock to go higher after earnings.</li>
<li>RSI on the chart shows that MU can go lower.</li>
<li>Technical analysis is fine, but investors should perform a 360 degree analysis that synergistically optimizes technical analysis, fundamental analysis, macro analysis, and quantitative analysis.</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis in the case of MU, even though technical analysis is giving a sell signal, after earnings, MU is still a buy on fundamental analysis, macro analysis, and quantitative analysis.</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, there are two very important observations from Micron earnings for investors:
<ul>
<li>AI is real, but the momo crowd has driven expectations too high.&nbsp;</li>
<li>There is a strong asymmetry in AI stocks for the time being.&nbsp;The reaction to MU earnings illustrates the point. As of this writing in the premarket, MU stock is down about $6.&nbsp;On the other hand, if the revenue projection was only slightly higher, the stock would have been heading for about a $40 gain in the zone of $175 - $182 in the coming days.&nbsp; Members and readers&nbsp;of The Arora Report have a long core position in MU from $21.77.&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>The presidential debate between Donald Trump and Joe Biden is tonight.&nbsp;Here are the key points for investors:
<ul>
<li>&nbsp;First and foremost, The Arora Report is politically agnostic.&nbsp;The Arora Report&rsquo;s sole job is to help investors make money by staying independent, objective, and highly analytical.</li>
<li>The prevailing wisdom on Wall Street is that if Trump wins the debate, the stock market will go down.</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, investors should not buy into Wall Street&rsquo;s prevailing wisdom.</li>
<li>Long time members of The Arora Report may recall that prior to the 2016 election, when Wall Street had anointed Hillary Clinton as the next president, The Arora Report had correctly called that Trump would win.&nbsp;At that time, The Arora Report was among the very tiny minority with the correct call.</li>
<li>When Trump won in 2016, Wall Street&rsquo;s wisdom was that the stock market would fall.&nbsp; In contrast, after Trump&rsquo;s win, The Arora Report call was that the stock market would rise with DJIA reaching 30,000 in Trump&rsquo;s first term.&nbsp; At that time, no one had a call for DJIA to reach higher than 20,000.&nbsp; History shows that The Arora Report had two perfect calls benefiting Arora Report members and readers.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Initial claims came at 233K vs. 238K consensus. Investors should focus on the four week average.&nbsp;In the short term, momo gurus are not going to like this number.</li>
<li>Durable orders are mixed.&nbsp; Here are the details:
<ul>
<li>Headline durable orders came at 0.1% vs. -1.2% consensus.</li>
<li>Durable orders ex-transport came at -0.1% vs. 0.2% consensus.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Q1 GDP-third estimate came at 1.4% vs. 1.3% consensus.&nbsp;This is a lagging indicator showing that the economy has been strong.</li>
<li>As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the protection band. The protection band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.</li>
</ul>
<h3>Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h3>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Apple Inc (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/aapl#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>) and Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/amzn#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/goog#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>), Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/meta#NASDAQ">META</a>), and Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/msft#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/nvda#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>), and Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/tsla#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are positive in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (ARCA:SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/qqq#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h3>Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h3>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ. Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil. The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (ARCA:GLD). The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (ARCA:SLV). The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (ARCA:USO).
<h3>Bitcoin</h3>
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) is seeing buying.
<h3>Protection Band And What To Do Now</h3>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp;The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive. If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp;A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h3>Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h3>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of seven year duration or less.&nbsp;Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.
This article is from an unpaid external contributor. It does not represent Benzinga&#39;s reporting and has not been edited for content or accuracy.

Government

AI Stocks Show Asymmetry On Expectations Proving Too High, Wall Street Preps For Presidential Debate

Gold and silver are trading higher ahead of Friday PCE data. Precious metals may also be reacting to regional tensions following an attempted coup in Bolivia, stress test results and earlier economic data.

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<img alt="" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/2024-06-26_08h15_39.png" style="height:383px; width:700px" />
<h3>Window Dressing</h3>
Please&nbsp;<a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-market-window-dressing-pce-ahead-spy-mc-06262024">click here</a>&nbsp;for an enlarged chart of SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (ARCA:SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&amp;P 500 (SPX).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>The chart shows that the stock market has continued to levitate way above the support zone. This indicates that there is significant risk if buying here.</li>
<li>The chart shows that the volume is low.&nbsp;This indicates lack of conviction.</li>
<li>RSI on the chart shows that, at least temporarily, the stock market is losing its upward momentum and can pull back.</li>
<li>This is the end of the quarter.&nbsp; Window dressing is underway.&nbsp;In window dressing, some money managers buy the best performing stocks of the quarter and sell the weakest stocks of the quarter.&nbsp;The purpose is to show their clients in the quarter end reports that they were holding the best performing stocks.</li>
<li>The Fed&#39;s favorite inflation gauge, PCE, will be released on Friday.&nbsp;Economists have become good at correctly predicting PCE.&nbsp;Nonetheless, PCE has the potential to move the market.</li>
<li>Micron Technology Inc (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/mu#NASDAQ">MU</a>) will report earnings after the close.&nbsp; MU earnings will impact the artificial intelligence trade.&nbsp;Please see <a href="https://blog.thearorareport.com/micron-earnings-062424/">prior Morning Capsules</a> and <a href="https://blog.thearorareport.com/signal-micron-062524/">articles on Micron</a> for more details.</li>
<li>In noteworthy action, traders have been running up NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/nvda#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>) stock after it touched the top band of the mini support zone.&nbsp; Please&nbsp;<a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-market-nvidia-bounces-semiconductors-nvda-mc-06252024">click here</a>&nbsp;for the chart.&nbsp; For the sake of complete transparency, this chart has not been changed from the chart published yesterday morning before the market open.</li>
<li>In the early trade, traders ran up NVDA to $129.97, where selling came in.&nbsp; As of this writing, selling is persisting.</li>
<li>In noteworthy news, Volkswagen A G Unsponsored Represent 1 10th Sh ADR (OTC: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/vwagy#OTC">VWAGY</a>) has thrown a lifeline to EV maker Rivian Automotive Inc (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/rivn#NASDAQ">RIVN</a>) with a $1B initial investment and plans to invest up to $5B.&nbsp;As a full disclosure, there is a very nice profitable <a href="https://blog.thearorareport.com/volkswagen-062624/" style="color:#467886; text-decoration:underline">trade on RIVN</a> in The Arora Report&#39;s ZYX Buy.</li>
<li>Olli Rehn, an ECB policy maker, said that two rate cuts this year are reasonable.&nbsp; In The Arora Report analysis, every ECB meeting this year will be live for a potential rate cut.</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, ECB actions are going to put pressure on the Fed to cut rates.</li>
<li>Options traders are betting on interest rate cuts of 3% over the next nine months in the U.S.&nbsp; These options traders belong to the momo crowd.&nbsp;Investors need to be aware that even though they are betting real money, these options traders have been consistently wrong.&nbsp; They started the year betting on six or seven rate cuts this year.&nbsp;For reference, there have been no rate cuts so far this year.&nbsp; If these options traders are right, the Fed would be very aggressively cutting rates this year and early next year.</li>
<li>As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.&nbsp;Please scroll down to see the protection band. The protection band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.</li>
</ul>
<h3>Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h3>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Apple Inc (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/aapl#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>) and Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/amzn#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in NVDA, Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/goog#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>), Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/meta#NASDAQ">META</a>), Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/msft#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>), and Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/tsla#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in S&amp;P 500 ETF (SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/qqq#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h3>Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h3>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ. &nbsp;Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil. The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (ARCA:GLD). The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (ARCA:SLV). &nbsp;The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (ARCA:USO).
<h3>Bitcoin</h3>
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) is range bound and trading above $60,000.
<h3>Protection Band And What To Do Now</h3>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp;The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative.The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp;If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp;When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h3>Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h3>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of seven year duration or less.&nbsp;Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga" style="color:#467886; text-decoration:underline">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.
This article is from an unpaid external contributor. It does not represent Benzinga&#39;s reporting and has not been edited for content or accuracy.

RIVN

VWAGY

Quarter End Window Dressing And Fed's Favorite Inflation Gauge Ahead, Hopes Of Two Rate Cuts In Europe

Gold prices could skyrocket to $3,000 per ounce within the next 12 to 18 months, according to <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/gold">Bank of America&#8217;s latest analysis</a>.
Michael Widmer, a commodity strategist at the bank, suggests that a combination of factors — increasing investment demand, geopolitical tensions, Federal Reserve rate cuts and central bank purchases — could boost the yellow <a href="https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&amp;source=web&amp;rct=j&amp;opi=89978449&amp;url=https://www.benzinga.com/topic/gold&amp;ved=2ahUKEwiR98e6n_SGAxVZwAIHHV80DF0QFnoECA4QAQ&amp;usg=AOvVaw2JFXWAHOQ01iJLxOuFn7pj">metal&#8217;s appeal among investors. </a>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Resurgence In Investor Demand</h3>
In 2023, investor demand for gold saw a notable resurgence, the investment bank noted, with private bar hoarding and central bank acquisitions accounting for 49% and 43% of purchases, respectively.
However, physically backed ETFs, such as the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>), have experienced a decline in assets under management, which has tempered overall demand growth. 
&#8220;A pick-up in LBMA clearing volumes would be an encouraging signal of rising non-commercial demand for gold, and would be consistent with higher prices needed to balance out the market,&#8221; Widmer said. 
Chart: Bank of America Eyes A Near 30% Rally In Gold Prices Within 12-18 Months
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="500" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/24082833/image-52-1024x500.png" alt="" class="wp-image-401847" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/24082833/image-52-1024x500.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/24082833/image-52-300x147.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/24082833/image-52-768x375.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/24082833/image-52-1536x750.png 1536w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/24082833/image-52.png 1920w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Central Bank Purchases As A Key Driver</h3>
Central bank purchases remain a crucial factor supporting gold prices. 
The World Gold Council&#8217;s (WGC) latest Central Bank Survey indicates a continued appetite for gold among monetary authorities. In 2023, central banks added 1,037 tonnes of gold, marking the second-highest annual purchase on record, following 2022&#8217;s peak of 1,082 tonnes.
The survey reveals that 29% of central bank respondents plan to increase their gold reserves in the next year, the highest percentage since the survey&#8217;s inception in 2018. 
Additionally, 83% of central banks hold gold as part of their international reserves, with 88% citing it as a long-term store of value and inflation hedge, followed by &#8220;performance during times of crisis&#8221; at 82%.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">China&#8217;s Strategic Shift: Sell USD, Buy Gold</h3>
&#8220;While the motivation of individual central banks for owning gold may vary, many reserve portfolios have one thing in common: the share of USD has been declining, while gold holdings have risen,&#8221; Widmer noted. 
The People&#8217;s Bank of China (PBoC) exemplifies this trend by diversifying its foreign reserves and increasing its gold holdings by 8 million ounces, equivalent to $51 billion, since January 2023. 
This move has raised the proportion of gold in China&#8217;s total reserves from 3.5% in December 2022 to 4.9% in April 2024. 
Concurrently, China&#8217;s holdings of U.S. Treasuries have plummeted by $102 billion over the past year, reaching a 25-year low of $767 billion in March 2024.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Impact Of Federal Reserve Policies, Timeless Safe-Haven Appeal</h3>
Bank of America forecasts that if the Federal Reserve cuts rates and the U.S. dollar weakens in the second half of 2024 and into 2025, investor buying will drive gold prices higher.
The investment bank believes that gold would show its strength even if investor dissatisfaction with the U.S. Treasury market grows, prompting higher yields. 
According to Widmer, in an environment of declining liquidity and resiliency in the Treasury market, gold is expected to maintain its allure as a safe haven asset. While a sharp increase in Treasury yields might initially push gold prices down, the search for stability would likely redirect flows into the gold market.
&#8220;The long-standing inverse relationship between gold and rates has become more tenuous already and in our view, this is unlikely to change going forward,&#8221; the analyst stated. 
Now Read: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/24/06/39453063/nasdaq-futures-slip-as-nvidia-sell-off-continues-s-p-500-futures-hold-up-analyst-says-valuations-wi">Nasdaq Futures Slip As Nvidia Sell-Off Continues, S&amp;P 500 Futures Hold Up: Analyst Says &#8216;Valuations Will Go Parabolic And It Will Be A Perfect Time To Sell</a>

Gold Prices Set To Climb To $3,000 On Fed Rate Cuts, Geopolitical Tensions, Bank of America Says

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<img alt="" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/2024-06-21_08h10_42.png" style="height:369px; width:624px" />
<h3>Negative Pattern</h3>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-market-nvidia-traces-negative-pattern-nvda-mc-06212024">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/nvda#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>The chart shows that NVDA stock opened higher yesterday.&nbsp;The higher opening was the result of more good news, pump during the holiday the day before, and continuing momentum from retail investors rushing in head long to buy.</li>
<li>The chart shows that the stock closed lower than the prior trading day.</li>
<li>The foregoing is a negative pattern that shows up as a bearish engulfing candle on a day chart.</li>
<li>The pattern needs confirmation.&nbsp;Confirmation will be achieved if there is follow through to the downside today.</li>
<li>The chart shows in the early trade, there is follow through to the downside.</li>
<li>The momo crowd has been aggressively buying the dip.</li>
<li>The chart shows that in spite of aggressive momo crowd buying, the VUD indicator was orange yesterday.&nbsp;Orange indicating net supply of stock.&nbsp; VUD indicator is the best way to ascertain net supply/demand in real time.&nbsp; As full disclosure, VUD indicator&nbsp;is one of many proprietary indicators of The Arora Report.</li>
<li>If the incessant momo crowd buying causes the stock to close higher than the lower low shown on the chart, the pattern will be negated.</li>
<li>A similar pattern occurred in NVDA stock on March 8, 2024.&nbsp;The pattern was followed by an approximate 20% drop in NVDA stock.</li>
<li>Setting technicals aside, when a stock goes down on good news, it is a sign that a stock is getting over owned.&nbsp; In plain English this means that the stock is running out of buyers willing to buy at higher and higher prices, at least temporarily.</li>
<li>NVDA is now becoming a cult stock and many investors are emotional about it.&nbsp;As full disclosure, readers and members of The Arora Report are long NVDA stock from $12.55, and NVDA is a large position in The Arora Report Model Portfolio.</li>
<li>The notional value of quadruple witching today is about $5.5T. In quadruple witching, stock index futures, futures options, stock options, and single stock futures expire.&nbsp; Quadruple witching often leads to volatility.</li>
<li>A big part of the moves in the stock market this week have been related to quad witching.&nbsp;Often, but not always, moves related to quad witching reverse the following week.</li>
<li>S&amp;P Global PMIs will be released at 9:45am ET.&nbsp; Existing home sales and leading indicators will be released at 10am ET. These data may be market moving, but the market&rsquo;s primary driver will be option expiration.</li>
</ul>
<h3>Europe</h3>
Stocks in Europe are weaker due to disappointing PMI data.&nbsp;Here are the details:
<ul>
<li>Flash Manufacturing PMI came at 45.6 vs. 48.0 consensus.</li>
<li>Flash Services PMI came at 52.6 vs. 53.5 consensus.</li>
<li>The foregoing data is projecting slower growth.</li>
</ul>
<h3>Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h3>
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Apple Inc (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/aapl#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>), Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/amzn#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>), Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/goog#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>), Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/meta#NASDAQ">META</a>), Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/msft#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>), and Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/tsla#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in NVDA.
In the early trade, money flows are mixed in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (ARCA:SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/qqq#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h3>Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h3>
The momo crowd is buying stocks in the early trade.&nbsp;Smart money is inactive in the early trade.
Note for new investors: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling.&nbsp;Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money&rsquo;s ways.&nbsp;The exception is in a raging bull market &ndash; for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money.
<h3>Gold</h3>
The momo crowd is buying gold in the early trade.&nbsp;Smart money is inactive in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.
The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (ARCA:GLD). The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (ARCA:SLV).&nbsp;
<h3>Oil</h3>
The momo crowd is buying oil in the early trade.&nbsp;Smart money is inactive in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see oil ratings.
The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (ARCA:USO).
<h3>Bitcoin</h3>
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) is seeing selling along with other speculative tech stocks.&nbsp;Bitcoin has now fallen below $65,000.
<h3>Protection Band And What To Do Now</h3>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp;The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp;If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp;A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp;High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h3>Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h3>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of seven year duration or less.&nbsp;Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.
This article is from an unpaid external contributor. It does not represent Benzinga&#39;s reporting and has not been edited for content or accuracy.

Nvidia Traces A Negative Pattern $5.5T Quad Witching, Slow Growth In Europe

The latest surveys by S&amp;P Global reveal an American economy firing on all cylinders in June, with robust activity and cooling inflation creating a goldilocks environment, giving the Fed more leeway <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/interest-rates">to cut interest rates.</a>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">S&amp;P Global Purchasing Managers&#8217; Indices (PMIs) For June: Key Highlights</h3>
<ul>
<li>The Composite PMI rose to 54.6 in June, up by 0.1 percentage points from May and marking the highest level since April 2022. </li>
<li>The Services PMI rose from 54.8 in May to 55.1, topping estimates of 53.7 as collected by Econoday. It marks the strongest services sector expansion in two years. Services activity has now risen for 17 consecutive months. </li>
<li>The Manufacturing PMI also improved in its growth path, rising from 51.3 to 51.7, beating forecasts of 51. </li>
<li>S&amp;P Global highlighted an improved business confidence for the year ahead, notably in the service sector, along with increasing pressure on operating capacity due to rising demand, which has prompted firms to increase their payroll numbers for the first time in three months.&nbsp; </li>
<li>Another significant positive factor was that the output growth did not come with rising price pressures. The survey's measure of selling price inflation cooled to a five-month low, linked to slower growth in input costs, indicating a moderation of inflationary pressures. </li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">The Economist Take</h3>
&#8220;The PMI is running at a level broadly consistent with the economy growing at an annualized rate of just under 2.5%. The upturn is broad-based, as rising demand continues to filter through the economy,&#8221; Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence, wrote.
Williamson revealed that selling price inflation has cooled again after rising in May, dropping to one of the lowest levels observed over the past four years.
&#8220;Historical comparisons indicate that the latest decline brings the survey's price gauge into line with the Fed's 2% inflation target,&#8221; he added. 
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Market Reactions</h3>
Stocks were relatively unchanged after the data release, with major U.S. equity indices trading in the red, except for the Dow Jones, as of 10:00 a.m. in New York. 
The SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) was down 0.3%, while the tech-heavy Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>) fell 0.5%. The decline was driven by a second consecutive day of profit-taking in tech and semiconductor stocks. 
The world&#8217;s largest company, Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>), was 3.2% lower after closing 3.5% lower on Thursday. 
Treasury yields rose, with the 10-year yield increasing from 4.23% to 4.26% after the PMIs data. 
The dollar strengthened by 0.2%, while gold, tracked by the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>), fell over 1% for the day.
Read now: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/06/39431836/5-charts-expose-troubling-weaknesses-in-record-high-stock-market-this-is-not-normal">5 Charts Expose Troubling Weaknesses In Record-High Stock Market: &#8216;This Is Not Normal&#8217;</a>
Photo: Shutterstock

US Private Sector Activity Exceeds Estimates, Fastest Growth In 2 Years – Will The Fed Welcome The Data?

Bank of America&#8217;s latest economic outlook for the U.S. paints a complex picture of steady but gradually fading economic growth, persistent inflation and a delayed start to the <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/interest-rates">Federal Reserve&#8217;s rate cuts. </a>
The bank&#8217;s economist, Michael Gapen, emphasizes a &#8220;higher-for-longer&#8221; rates environment, with the first rate cut expected only in December.&nbsp;
Bank of America expects the factors that have driven the U.S. economy&#8217;s outperformance in recent years — such as robust labor force growth, employment catch-up effects, supportive fiscal policies and increased domestic manufacturing investment — to gradually fade.
The bank projects a slowdown in real GDP growth from 3.1% in 2023 to 2.1% in 2024, 2.0% in 2025 and 1.8% in 2026. Modestly restrictive financial conditions, tighter bank lending standards, diminishing wealth effects and a strong dollar are seen as significant headwinds.
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Persistent Inflation Concerns</h1>
Inflation is expected to decelerate but remain sticky, particularly in the services sector. Gapen notes that while the rebound in the labor force exerts positive supply effects on inflation, it also leads to greater employment, income, and spending, which maintain demand pressures.
Core PCE inflation is forecasted to end 2024 at 2.8%, before slowing to 2.3% in 2025 and 2.1% in 2026. 
&#8220;The combination of stronger growth and sticky inflation has led us to embrace high-for-longer rates,&#8221; Gapen explains, highlighting the resilience of the U.S. economy as indicative of higher neutral rates than pre-pandemic levels.
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Delayed Rate Cuts and Fiscal Moderation</h1>
The higher-than-expected inflation in the first quarter has delayed the rate-cutting cycle. Bank of America now expects elevated year-on-year rates of core PCE inflation through the end of 2024. 
The terminal rate in this easing cycle is projected to be between 3.50% and 3.75% in 2026. 
&#8220;Our outlook has a higher-for-longer flavor, with later and fewer cuts than many expect, in order to keep inflation on a downward trajectory,&#8221; Gapen notes.
The bank also anticipates a moderation in fiscal policy and business investment growth. 
Recent data suggest this moderation is already occurring, with the contribution from government spending to GDP at only 0.2 percentage points in Q1 2024. 
Following an underwhelming tax season, the fiscal year 2024 deficit has been revised up to $1.8 trillion (6.3% of GDP), from the previously expected $1.62 trillion (6.0% of GDP).
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Market Forecasts And Risks Ahead</h1>
On the market front, Bank of America expects the S&amp;P 500 index, as tracked by the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>), to end the year at 5,400 points, marginally lower than current levels. 
Analysts are bullish on gold, as monitored through the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>), forecasting the yellow metal to reach $2,500 per ounce by year-end, a nearly 6% surge from current levels.
&#8220;Our forecast could easily be described as a gilded glidepath: it&#8217;s close to perfection in every dimension. Won&#8217;t something go wrong?,&#8221; Gapen wrote.
Bank of America acknowledges several risks to its forecast, including a faster-than-expected end to catch-up employment, rising inflation prompting more Fed tightening, inefficiencies from an industrial-policy-led investment boom, geopolitical risks, and the upcoming elections.
The upcoming U.S. election is also highlighted as a potential wildcard, with significant implications for the economy.
Michael Hartnett, Bank of America&#8217;s chief investment strategist, points out that the 2024 election will be the first in 30 years where Baby Boomers are not the majority voting bloc. 
Key issues for younger voters, such as inflation, healthcare, and housing, could shape fiscal policies and markets going forward.
Read Now: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/06/39415117/nvidia-analyst-says-the-ai-party-isnt-over-any-volatility-likely-to-be-short-lived">Nvidia Analyst Says The AI Party Isn&#8217;t Over: &#8216;Any Volatility Likely To Be Short-Lived&#8217;</a>
Photo: Shutterstock

Bank Of America Predicts First Rate Cut In December: 'Higher-For-Longer Flavor'

On Thursday, June 20, U.S. stock markets closed mixed as Nvidia retreated from earlier gains, and investors evaluated economic data and Federal Reserve comments for clues on potential interest-rate cuts.
According to the economic data, U.S. jobless claims fell by 5,000 to 238,000 in the week ending June 15, slightly above expectations. The four-week moving average rose to 232,750, the highest since September 2023. In May 2024, housing stats dropped 5.5% to 1.27 million, below forecasts, and building permits fell 3.8% to 1.386 million.
The Philadelphia Fed&#8217;s general activity index fell to 1.3 in June, with employment levels continuing to decline despite a slight rise in the employment index.
Energy and utilities were the top performers among the 11 S&amp;P 500 sector indexes, while technology experienced the largest decline.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.77% and closed at 39,134.76. The S&amp;P 500 declined 0.25%, ending the day at 5,473.17, and the Nasdaq Composite slid 0.81%, finishing the session at 17,717.90.
Asian Markets Today
<ul>
<li>On Friday, Japan&#8217;s Nikkei 225 declined 0.07%, ending the session at 38,621.00, led by losses in the Shipbuilding, Railway &amp; Bus and Steel sectors.</li>
<li>Australia&#8217;s S&amp;P/ASX 200 closed higher at 0.34%, ending the day at 7,796.00, led by gains in the Gold, Utilities, and Energy sectors.</li>
<li>India&#8217;s Nifty 50 closed lower by 0.28% at 23,501.10, and Nifty 500 fell 0.31% at 22,236.20.</li>
<li>China&#8217;s Shanghai Composite was down 0.24%, ending the session at 2,998.14, and the Shenzhen CSI fell 0.22%, closing at 3,495.62.</li>
<li>Hong Kong&#8217;s Hang Seng ended the session lower by 1.53% at 18,053.96.</li>
</ul>
Eurozone at 06:15 AM ET
<ul>
<li>The European STOXX 50 index declined 0.79%.</li>
<li>Germany&#8217;s DAX fell 0.47%.</li>
<li>France&#8217;s CAC was down 0.60%.</li>
<li>U.K.&#8217;s FTSE 100 traded lower by 0.93%.</li>
</ul>
Commodities at 06:15 AM ET
<ul>
<li>Crude Oil WTI was trading lower by 0.04% at $81.26/bbl, and Brent was down 0.06% at $85.66 bbl.</li>
<li>Natural Gas declined 1.93% to $2.687.</li>
<li>Gold was trading higher by 0.27% at $2,375.60, Silver fell 1.22% to $30.448, and Copper was down 1.59% to $4.4895.</li>
</ul>
US Futures at 06:15 AM ET
Dow futures were down 0.15%, S&amp;P 500 futures slid 0.13%, and Nasdaq 100 Futures declined 0.08%.
Forex at 06:15 AM ET
The U.S. Dollar Index gained 0.13% to 105.72, USD/JPY was up 0.03% at 158.95, and USD/AUD rose 0.13% to 1.5043.
The U.S. dollar remains strong due to a relatively hawkish Fed, despite weak housing and labor market data. The Fed is cautious about cutting rates, reducing its forecast for this year from three to one.
Photo by Sharon McCutcheon via Unsplash

Coverage of Bitcoin, Etherum, Ripple and all the latest digital currencies.

Cryptocurrency

Asia And Europe Markets Dip, While US Dollar Strengthens - Global Markets Today While US Slept

After the Juneteenth holiday break, Wall Street reopened with a cautious tone, as the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices declined after hitting all-time highs around midday trading in New York. This decline was driven by profit-taking in chipmaker stocks and rising Treasury yields, <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets">which dampened risk sentiment.</a>
The iShares Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SOXX#NASDAQ">SOXX</a>) fell by 2.4%, marking its worst session since May 1, after reaching technically &#8220;overbought&#8221; levels earlier in the week.
Oil prices surged above $81 a barrel, aiming for the highest close since late April. This was spurred by larger-than-expected drops in U.S. inventories last week, fueling a rally in oil-related companies.
Small caps also softened, whereas blue chips saw a rebound, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average outperforming other major indices with a 0.4% gain.
Long-dated Treasury yields rose, with the 10-year yield up by 5 basis points to 4.27%, following mixed economic data released earlier in the day. Jobless claims slightly increased more than expected last week, and a manufacturing activity gauge in the Philadelphia region fell short of estimates, reaching its lowest <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/24/06/39411920/jobless-claims-exceed-estimates-philly-fed-index-declines-housing-starts-and-permits-fall-sharpl">level in five months. </a>
Additionally, housing data showed sharp declines in both housing starts and building permits, reigniting concerns about a tight real estate market.
Bonds fell, with the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) down 0.9%. The U.S. dollar index (DXY) rose 0.4%, with the greenback gaining ground against all major currencies.
The Bank of England kept its key policy rate unchanged at 5.25%, as expected, while the Swiss National Bank cut rates by 0.25 <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/top-stories/24/06/39415866/interest-rate-decisions-bank-of-england-holds-firm-swiss-national-bank-reduces-further-will-fed-cut">percentage points to 1.25%</a>. Consequently, the British pound and the Swiss franc fell by 0.5% and 0.8%, respectively, against the dollar.
Gold, tracked by the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>), rose by 1.1%, while Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) remained flat below $65,000.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Monday&#8217;s Performance In Major US Indices, ETFs</h2>
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Major Indices</td>
<td>Price</td>
<td>1-day %chg</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Dow Jones</td>
<td>38,982.71</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>S&amp;P 500</td>
<td>5,477.61</td>
<td>-0.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Russell 2000</td>
<td>2,020.24</td>
<td>-0.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nasdaq 100</td>
<td>19,793.76</td>
<td>-0.6%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Updated at 12:55 pm ET</figcaption></figure>
According to&nbsp;<a href="https://pro.benzinga.com/dashboard">Benzinga Pro</a>&nbsp;data:
<ul>
<li>The&nbsp;SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>)&nbsp;was 0.3% lower to $547.24.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DIA#NYSE">DIA</a>)&nbsp;was 0.4% higher to $390.90.</li>
<li>The tech-heavy&nbsp;Invesco QQQ Trust&nbsp;(ARCA:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/qqq" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener"></a><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/qqq" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener"></a>QQQ) was 0.6% lower to $482.43.</li>
<li>Sector-wise, the&nbsp;Energy&nbsp;Select Sector SPDR Fund&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLE#NYSE">XLE</a>)&nbsp;outperformed, up by 1.8%, while the&nbsp;Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLK#NYSE">XLK</a>) lagged, falling 0.9%.</li>
</ul>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Thursday&#8217;s Stock Movers</h2>
<ul>
<li>The world&#8217;s biggest company Nvidia Corp. witnessed a 2% decline, while Qualcomm Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QCOM#NASDAQ">QCOM</a>), Micron Technology Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MU#NASDAQ">MU</a>) and Wolfspeed Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/WOLF#NASDAQ">WOLF</a>) all tumbled by over 5%.</li>
<li>Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMD#NASDAQ">AMD</a>) surged nearly 4%, outperforming all other chipmakers. This rise followed the announcement that Sun Singapore Systems, the largest parking solutions provider in Singapore, has selected AMD to power its AI-based parking management platform.</li>
<li>Solar-related stocks experienced sharp declines after JPMorgan reduced price targets on Enphase Energy Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ENPH#NASDAQ">ENPH</a>) from $128 to $124 and on SolarEdge Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SEDG#NASDAQ">SEDG</a>) from $73 to $59.</li>
<li>Gilead Sciences Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GILD#NASDAQ">GILD</a>) soared over 8% after the company announced that a twice-yearly antiviral injection had successfully prevented HIV in all test subjects during a trial involving thousands of women and girls in South Africa and Uganda.</li>
<li>Accenture plc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ACN#NYSE">ACN</a>) rose over 6%, despite missing both revenue and earnings estimate last quarter. </li>
<li>Other stocks reacting to company earnings were The Kroger Company (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/KR#NYSE">KR</a>), down 2.8%, Darden Restaurants Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DRI#NYSE">DRI</a>), down 1.5%, Jabil Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/JBL#NYSE">JBL</a>), down 8.7% and Commercial Metals Company (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CMC#NYSE">CMC</a>), up 5%. </li>
</ul>
Read now: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/24/06/39416977/supreme-court-upholds-2017-tax-on-foreign-profits-for-us-businesses">Supreme Court Upholds 2017 Tax On Foreign Profits For US Businesses</a>
Illustration created using artificial intelligence via MidJourney.

Mid Cap

ENPH

GILD

QCOM

SEDG

WOLF

S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Dip From Record Highs As Investors Take Chipmaker Profits; Energy Sector Rebounds, Yields Rise: What's Driving Markets Thursday?

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<img alt="" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/2024-06-20_08h11_21.png" style="height:394px; width:700px" />
<h3>Deteriorating Internals</h3>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-market-jobless-claims-quad-witching-qqq-mc-06202024">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/qqq#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>The chart shows that Nasdaq 100 is way overextended above the support zone.</li>
<li>Overextended markets work only as long as momentum stays high.&nbsp;If momentum stops, the market tends to pullback.</li>
<li>The chart shows that the volume is low as the market drives higher.&nbsp;This indicates lack of conviction.</li>
<li>RSI on the chart shows Nasdaq 100 is very overbought.&nbsp;Risk and reward are two sides of the same coin.&nbsp;A market as overbought as this one is risky.</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, prudent investors should pay attention to deteriorating internals of Nasdaq 100.&nbsp;There are more one month lows than one month highs in the Nasdaq 100 stocks.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>The stock market, including AI stocks such as NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/nvda#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>), Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/hpe#NYSE">HPE</a>), Dell Technologies Inc (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/dell#NYSE">DELL</a>), Super Micro Computer Inc (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/smci#NASDAQ">SMCI</a>), and Taiwan Semiconductor Mfg. Co. Ltd. (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/tsm#NYSE">TSM</a>), are being pulled higher by quadruple witching.&nbsp;Tomorrow is quadruple witching.&nbsp;In quadruple witching, stock index futures, futures options, stock options, and single stock futures expire.&nbsp; Quadruple witching often leads to volatility.</li>
<li>There are many factors driving NVDA stock higher.&nbsp;An important factor driving NVDA higher is the market mechanic of gamma squeeze.</li>
<li>There are two pieces of news that are noteworthy for investors.
<ul>
<li>Hackers claim that they have breached Apple Inc (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/aapl#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>) source code.&nbsp;If true, it would sully Apple&rsquo;s image of invisibility.</li>
<li>Elon Musk says that Dell is assembling half of the racks for the super computer being built by xAI.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Initial jobless claims came at 238K vs. 237K consensus.&nbsp;We have previously emphasized the importance of looking at the four week moving average. The four week moving average is rising, indicating that the jobs picture is beginning to weaken.&nbsp;</li>
</ul>
<h4>Housing</h4>
Housing data is weaker than expected.&nbsp;Here are the details:
<ul>
<li>Housing starts came at 1.277M vs. 1.385M consensus.</li>
<li>Building permits came at 1.386M vs. 1.455M consensus.</li>
</ul>
<h3>England</h3>
The Bank of England (BoE) has decided to hold rates steady.&nbsp;The vote was seven to two.&nbsp;BoE is showing a dovish tilt.
<h3>Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h3>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/meta#NASDAQ">META</a>) and NVDA.
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/amzn#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>), Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/goog#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>), Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/msft#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>), and Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/tsla#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in AAPL.
In the early trade, money flows are positive in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (ARCA:SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).
<h3>Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h3>
The momo crowd is buying stocks in the early trade.&nbsp;Smart money is inactive in the early trade.
Note for new investors: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling.&nbsp;Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money&rsquo;s ways.&nbsp; The exception is in a raging bull market &ndash; for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money.
<h3>Gold</h3>
The momo crowd is buying gold in the early trade.&nbsp;Smart money is inactive in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.
The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (ARCA:GLD). The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (ARCA:SLV).&nbsp;
<h3>Oil</h3>
The momo crowd is buying oil in the early trade.&nbsp; Smart money is inactive in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see oil ratings.
The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (ARCA:USO).
<h3>Bitcoin</h3>
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) is range bound. The post holiday buying is being met with selling in bitcoin.
<h3>Protection Band And What To Do Now</h3>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges. The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp;A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp;When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h3>Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h3>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of seven year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.
This article is from an unpaid external contributor. It does not represent Benzinga&#39;s reporting and has not been edited for content or accuracy.

DELL

SMCI

Quad Witching Driving AI Stocks Including Nvidia Higher, More One Month Lows Than Highs In NASDAQ

The likelihood of seeing enormous declines in junior mining stocks remains very high. The same is likely for gold.

Gold Price Forecast For July 2024

​​​​​​​Certain climate scientists, research economists, and precious metal investors agree: This year could be one of the hottest on record.

Summer Feeling Hotter Than Usual? Gold Could Be Too.

Gold prices rise as cooler U.S. jobs data builds case for sooner Fed rate cut

Stocks rallied higher to new record highs, based on a seemingly benign Non-Farm Payrolls report. The Dollar fell. Gold and silver rocketed higher.

Stocks And Precious Metals Charts - The Poisoned Chalice Of Empire

Coming into this year, very few traders and analysts were talking about precious metals. Now, here we are, on the cusp of a potential continuation of the bull trends in both gold and silver. 

Metals Rally - Pet Rocks Have Overtaken Digital Rocks

After struggling for direction most of the day, the Dow finished modestly higher, while the S&P 500 eked out a fourth consecutive gain and record close.

Nasdaq Secures 5th-Straight Weekly Win

In this podcast, we discuss the most recent technical action in Gold & Silver, the return of big money macro buyers in recent days.

Big Macro Money Starts Buying Gold Again

In this video, Ira Epstein reviews the day's trading in the gold and other relevant metal markets.

Metal Markets Report For Friday, July 5

It's over. The second quarter is now in the history books. And while the S&P and Nasdaq ended the quarter kissing new highs – up 14.5% and 18.1%, respectively – the Dow Industrials and Transports along with the Russell are not really celebrating.

Q2 2024 Scorecard: S&P, Nasdaq Strong; Dow, Russell Not So Much

Gold Rips And Bitcoin Dips.

AAAU

COPX

CPER

GDXJ

GLDM

JJCTF

NUGT

OUNZ

PAAS

PHYS

PPLT

PSLV

SGOL

SILJ

SIVR

Screenshot 2024-05-29 at 5.35.33 PM

ADVZF

NEWP

Precious metal prices are significantly influenced by investor sentiment, much like stocks and bonds. This can lead to routine price fluctuations, sometimes large and erratic, where the volatility can create both challenges and opportunities for investors. 

Silver Prices Surging – How Market Conditions Are Affecting The Price Of Silver

SPDR Gold Shares ETF

연방준비은행(연준)이 면밀히 관찰하고 있는 인플레이션 보고서인 개인 소비 지출(PCE) 물가 지수의 4월 데이터는 5월 31일에 발표되었으며 6월에 새로운 시장 랠리를 촉발하여 주요 지수를 <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/inflation" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-google-interstitial="false">사상 최고치</a>로 끌어올렸다.
트레이더들이 미 동부 시간 오전 8시 30분에 발표될 예정인 금요일 5월 PCE 물가 지수 보고서를 대비하고 있는 가운데 많은 사람들은 <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/24/06/39532797/stocks-show-modest-gains-ahead-of-feds-inflation-report-chipmakers-struggle-while-gold-and-bitco" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-google-interstitial="false">최근 세션에서 시장의 다소 엇갈린 성과</a>를 본 후 새로운 우호적인 인플레이션 데이터가 강세를 월스트리트에 다시 가져올 수 있을지 궁금해하고 있다.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">5월 PCE보고서: 이코노미스트들의 예상은?</h3>
이코노데이(Econoday)가 수집한 이코노미스트 컨센서스 데이터에 따르면 PCE 물가지수는 4월의 전년 동기 대비 2.7%에서 5월에는 2.6%로 하락할 것으로 예상됐다.
월간 기준으로 이 지수는 0.1% 상승할 것으로 전망된다. 이는 이전의 0.3%에서 하락할 것으로 예상된다.
5월 핵심 PCE 물가 지수는 전년 동기의 2.8%에서 2.6%로 하락해 2021년 3월 이후 최저 수준에 도달할 가능성이 있다.
월간 기준으로는 0.2%에서 0.1%로 낮아질 예정이다.
PCE 인플레이션이 예상대로 또는 더 하락하면 금리 인하에 대한 투자자의 기대가 높아져 이르면 9월에 금리 인하가 이뤄질 것이라는 희망이 다시 불붙을 가능성이 있으며 시장에서는 이를 환영할 것이다.
트레이더들은 9월 연준의 금리 인하 가능성을 65%로 보고 있다. 전반적으로 연말까지 50 베이시스 포인트(두 번의 금리 인하와 동일)가 시장에 반영되어 있다.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">연준이 선호하는 PCE 보고서는 금요일 발표: 지난번에 무슨 일이?</h3>
4월 PCE 인플레이션율은 전년 동기 대비 2.7%로 안정적으로 유지됐다. 핵심 PCE 물가 지수 역시 전년 동기 대비 2.8% 상승해 기대치에 부합했지만, 월별 추정치(0.2% 대 0.3%)보다는 약간 낮았다.
개인 지출 및 개인 소득에 대한 데이터는 예상보다 약간 부진하여 경제가 냉각되고 인플레이션 압력이 계속 완화될 것이라는 기대를 불러일으켰다.
이는 연준이 연말까지 두 차례 금리를 인하할 가능성이 높아질 것이라는 기대를 지속시켰다.
주식은 4월 PCE 보고서에 긍정적으로 반응했다. SPDR S&amp;P 500(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>)이 추적하는 S&amp;P 500은 이날 0.9% 상승했다.
특히 Benzinga Pro에서 가져온 아래 차트에서 볼 수 있듯이 이 데이터는 6월 강세 추세 반전의 주요 전환점이 되었다.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="wp-image-409213" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/27120704/image-61-1024x458.png" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/27120704/image-61-1024x458.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/27120704/image-61-300x134.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/27120704/image-61-768x344.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/27120704/image-61-1536x687.png 1536w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/27120704/image-61.png 1920w" alt="" width="1024" height="458" /></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">금요일 주목해야 할 중요 ETFs</h3>
더 넓은 주식 시장 외에도 거래자들은 PCE 인플레이션 보고서에 대한 전체 시장의 반응을 측정하기 위해 다음을 포함한 다른 주요 자산 클래스를 면밀히 모니터링할 것이다:
<ol>
<li>달러 지수: Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>)로 추적된다. 시장 금리 기대에 대한 반응으로 인플레이션이 합의 예상치보다 낮아지면 달러는 약세를 보이고, 기대치를 초과하면 강세를 보일 수 있다.</li>
<li>20년 이상 장기 미국 국채: iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>)로 측정된다. 예상보다 낮은 PCE 보고서는 채권 수익률을 낮추어 국채 관련 ETF의 가치를 상승시킬 가능성이 높으며 그 반대의 경우도 마찬가지이다.</li>
<li>금 가격: SPDR Gold Trust(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>)를 통해 모니터링된다. 금은 일반적으로 달러와 반대로 움직여 수익률을 얻는다. 예상보다 차가운 PCE 보고서는 연준의 금리 인하에 대한 기대를 높여 금의 매력을 강화할 수 있다.</li>
<li>러셀 2000 지수: iShares Russell 2000 ETF(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IWM#NYSE">IWM</a>)로 추적된다. 올해 들어 S&amp;P 500 및 나스닥 100보다 상대적으로 낮은 수익률을 기록하고 있는 소형주는 물가 상승률이 낮아질 경우 이점을 살릴 수 있을 것이다. 왜냐하면 이들의 경우 대형 주식에 비해 더 많은 영향을 받는 고금리 압력이 줄어들게 되기 때문이다.</li>
</ol>
지금 읽으세요:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/macro-notification/24/06/39527471/gdp-growth-upwardly-revised-in-q1-but-consumer-spending-weakens-continuing-jobless-cla">1분기 GDP성장률 상향 조정, 소비자 지출의 약화, 실업급여 계속 증가</a></li>
</ul>

억만장자 투자자인 브리지워터 어소시에이츠(Bridgewater Associates)의 설립자인 레이 달리오(Ray Dalio)는 최근 고조되는 <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/us-china-relations-0">미중 간 긴장</a>과 증가하는 글로벌 위험에 직면해 다각화의 중요성을 강조했다.
블룸버그의 <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-05/ray-dalio-touts-us-elections-china-conflicts-as-global-risks?cmpid=BBD060524_OUS&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_source=newsletter&amp;utm_term=240605&amp;utm_campaign=openamericas">보도</a>에 의하면 달리오는 홍콩에서 열린 그리니치 경제 포럼(Greenwich Economic Forum)에서 연설하면서 향후 몇 년간 심각한 경제적, 정치적 격변이 일어날 가능성을 강조했다.
그는 미국 선거 결과와 중국에 대한 경제제재가 현재 가장 중요한 이슈 중 하나라고 강조했다.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">미국 내부 갈등의 위험성</h2>
달리오는 특히 논란이 많은 선거 정당성 문제를 둘러싼 미국 내부 갈등의 위험을 강조했다.
그는 재선된 도널드 트럼프의 정책이 조 바이든 2기 대통령의 정책과 극명하게 대조될 것이라고 강조했다. 그러나 그는 반중 정책에 대해서는 초당적인 합의가 있으며, 이는 전 세계적으로 심각한 경제적 결과를 초래할 수 있다고 지적했다.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">경제적 전쟁은 종종 군사적 충돌 선행</h2>
달리오는 "세계에 정말 끔찍한 경제 제재의 위험이 크다"고 말하면서 경제 전쟁이 종종 군사적 충돌에 선행한다는 점을 강조했다. 그는 특히 대만과 관련해 오랫동안 지속되어 온 하나의 중국 정책이 심각한 도전에 직면해 국제 투자자들에게 영향을 미칠 수 있다고 경고했다.
달리는 다음과 같은 이유로 전례 없는 위험에 직면한 세계에 대한 더 넓은 그림을 그렸다:
<ul>
<li>거대한 부채</li>
<li>국내 정치적 파탄</li>
<li>거 국가 간의 충돌</li>
</ul>
여기에 더해 자연재해, 전염병, 인공지능의 급속한 발전 등이 있다.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">경제적 불확실성으로 다양성은 더욱 중요</h2>
그는 이러한 불확실성으로 인해 투자의 효과적인 다각화가 그 어느 때보다 중요하다고 주장했다. 달리오는 "다각화의 힘은 올바른 의사결정의 힘보다 더 크다"고 말했다.
그는 위험을 완화하기 위해 투자자들이 국가, 통화, 자산 등급에 자산을 분산시켜야 한다고 역설했다. 그는 최근 중국 자산이 하락세를 보였지만 현재 가격은 매력적이며 브리지워터는 지난 5년 동안 중국에 투자할 수 있는 효과적인 방법을 찾았다고 언급했다.
관련 기사: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/asia/24/04/38070613/billionaire-investor-ray-dalio-remains-bullish-on-china-despite-a-looming-100-year-storm-the-time-to" target="_blank" rel="noopener">억만장자 투자자 레이 달리오, 다가오는 &#8216;100년 폭풍&#8217;에도 불구하고 중국에 대한 강세 유지</a>
이러한 긴장에도 불구하고 달리오는 미국과 중국 모두에 투자를 유지하며 혁신적인 신기술 분야에서 두 국가의 지배력을 인식하고 있다. 그러나 그는 또한 동남아시아, 인도, 중동과 같은 중립 국가를 매력적인 투자 대상으로 지적했으며, 주요 전쟁 당사자들에 비해 분쟁에서 더 잘 대처하는 경우가 많다.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">달리오: 채권보다 주식을 선호하고 금으로 헤지</h2>
달리오는 채권보다 주식 자산을 선호하며 후자의 부적절한 수익에 대한 우려를 표명했다. 그는 상당한 부채를 보유하고 있는 중앙은행들이 손실을 화폐화해야 할 수 있으며, 이는 후기 인플레이션으로 이어질 수 있다고 경고했다.
미국 주식에 대한 다양한 노출을 제공하는 인기 있는 ETF는 다음과 같다: SPDR S&amp;P 500(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>), iShares Core S&amp;P 500 ETF(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IVV#NYSE">IVV</a>) 및 Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VOO#NYSE">VOO</a>) 등이다.
헤지 수단으로 그는 미국 달러와 유로에 이어 세 번째로 큰 준비 통화인 금 보유를 권장했다. SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>) 및 iShares Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IAU#NYSE">IAU</a>)는 인기 있는 금 추적 ETF이다.
달리오의 통찰력은 특히 미-중 경제 긴장으로 인한 글로벌 위험이 증가하는 가운데 투자자들이 포트폴리오를 다각화해야 하는 중요한 필요성을 강조한다. 다양한 지역과 자산 등급에 걸쳐 투자를 분산함으로써 투자자들은 앞으로의 불확실한 환경을 더 잘 헤쳐나갈 수 있다.

헤지펀드 기업 그린라이트 캐피털(Greenlight Capital)의 데이비드 아인혼(David Einhorn)은 <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/04/38085675/were-fd-says-rich-dad-poor-dad-author-robert-kiyosaki-because-fed-chair-powell-fina" target="_blank" rel="noopener">인플레이션에 대한 헤지 수단</a>으로 금에 베팅하고 있다.
What To Know: 수요일 CNBC의 &#8216;파워 런치(Power Lunch)&#8217;에 방영된 2024년 손 투자 컨퍼런스(Sohn Investment Conference) 인터뷰에서 아인혼은 인플레이션이 더 이상 하락하지 않는다고 주장했다.
&#8220;내 생각에는 인플레이션의 재가속이 이뤄지고 있다. 이에 대한 많은 증거가 있다고 생각한다&#8221;고 아인혼이 말했다.
억만장자 투자자인 아인혼은CNBC에 연방준비제도(연준)이 시장이 예상하는 것보다 올해 금리를 더 적게 인하할 것으로 예상한다고 말했다. 2024년에는 3번의 금리 인하가 있을 것이라는 시장 합의가 있었지만, 아인혼은 전혀 인하가 없을 수도 있다고 지적했다.
연준이 공격적인 통화정책 기조를 오랫동안 유지할수록 경기 침체 가능성은 커진다. 아인혼은 그린라이트 캐피털이 이러한 가능성에 대비해 SPDR 골드 트러스트(GLD)의 주식을 매수했으나 이는 금에 대한 회사의 유일한 노출이 아니라고 말했다.
&#8220;우리는 GLD 이상의 금을 많이 매입했다. 우리는 현물 골드바도 소유하고 있다. 그러니 금은 우리에게 정말 큰 포지션을 차지하고 있다&#8221;고 아인혼이 말했다.
&#8220;나라의 통화정책과 재정정책에는 문제가 있다. 두 정책 모두 체계적으로 너무 느슨하다면 결국 적자는 실제 문제가 될 것이다. 이것은 무언가 좋지 않은 일에 대한 위험을 회피할 수 있는 방법이라고 생각한다.&#8221;
최근 몇 주 동안 금 가격은 연준의 금리 인하 주기 예상의 영향을 일부 받아 <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/commodities/24/04/38043338/gold-hits-all-time-high-in-march-want-to-capitalize-on-projected-further-growth-but-not-sure-">역대 최고치</a>를 기록했다. 이자율이 낮은 환경에서 금은 채권 자산보다 더욱 매력적으로 보인다.
아인혼에게 좋지 않은 일이 발생할 확률에 대해 묻자, 그는 이것이 단순한 문제라고 답했으며, 그것이 언제일지 모른다는 점을 인정했지만 단순히 시기의 문제라고 말했다.
&#8220;시장이 현재 상황에 대해 신뢰할 수 있는 동안에는 모든 것이 괜찮다. 하지만 그것이 바뀌는 순간&#8230;그러면 진짜 문제가 생긴다&#8221;고 아인혼이 말했다.
GLD 주가 움직임: SPDR 골드 트러스트의 주가는 211.52달러로 0.57% 하락했다.

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