iShares Gold Trust Shares of the iShares Gold Trust에 대한 매도 수량은 투자자에게 iShares Gold Trust Shares of the iShares Gold Trust의 주식 하락에 베팅하는 정도를 알려줍니다. 매도 수량 데이터는 2주마다 업데이트됩니다.

iShares Gold Trust Shares of the iShares Gold Trust (ARCA:IAU), 공매도 수량 보고

The Trust seeks to reflect such performance before payment of the Trusts expenses and liabilities. It is not actively managed. The Trust does not engage in any activities designed to obtain a profit from, or to ameliorate losses caused by, changes in the price of gold. The advisor intends to constitute a simple and cost-effective means of making an investment similar to an investment in gold. An investment in physical gold requires expensive and sometimes complicated arrangements in connection with the assay, transportation, warehousing and insurance of the metal.

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이스라엘에 대한 이란의 미사일 공격의 여파 속에서 시장 관찰자들은 전개되는 갈등과 그것이 금 가격에 미칠 수 있는 영향을 면밀히 관찰하고 있다.

중동 긴장 고조에 따라 투자자들은 금에 주목: 이스라엘-이란 갈등이 가격에 미치는 영향

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억만장자 투자자인 브리지워터 어소시에이츠(Bridgewater Associates)의 설립자인 레이 달리오(Ray Dalio)는 최근 고조되는 미중 간 긴장과 증가하는 글로벌 위험에 직면해 다각화의 중요성을 강조했다. 블룸버그의 보도에 의하면 달리오는 홍콩에서 열린 그리니치 경제 포럼(Greenwich Economic Forum)에서 연설하면서 향후 몇 년간 심각한 경제적, 정치적 격변이 일어날 가능성을 강조했다.

레이 달리오는 미중 경제제재에 대해 경고하며 다양성의 중요성을 강조

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As the global commodity market braces for a challenging 2025,&nbsp;ING Group NV&nbsp;forecasts a bullish outlook for gold amid potential trade tensions between the U.S. and China.
What Happened: ING Group NV&nbsp;anticipates a difficult year for commodities in 2025, driven by possible trade tensions between the United States and China. Despite this, gold is expected to maintain its status as a safe haven, Bloomberg <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-12/gold-will-shine-in-bearish-year-ahead-for-commodities-ing-says">reported</a> on Thursday.
The report indicates that President-elect&nbsp;Donald Trump&#8216;s proposed tariffs could disrupt markets, impacting oil, metals, and agriculture. Traders are also monitoring China&#8217;s stimulus measures, which could affect consumption.&nbsp;Warren Patterson&nbsp;and&nbsp;Ewa Manthey&nbsp;from ING noted that the commodity sector might face downward pressure with balanced supply and demand.
See Also:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/24/12/42405504/dogecoin-can-touch-18-if-things-go-wild-says-influential-crypto-trader-thankful-for-the-dip-and-will-buy-more?itm_source=parsely-api" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Dogecoin Can Touch $18 If Things &#8216;Go Wild,&#8217; Says Influential Crypto Trader: &#8216;Thankful For The Dip And Will Buy More&#8217;</a> 
Gold is projected to continue its record-breaking trend,&nbsp;with prices averaging $2,760 an&nbsp;ounce in 2025. Central banks are likely to drive demand as they diversify reserves amid geopolitical tensions.&nbsp;The outlook for industrial metals&nbsp;remains uncertain, with factors like trade policies and Chinese demand influencing prices. Copper is predicted&nbsp;to average $8,900 a ton, while grains and soft commodities face volatility due to trade disputes and weather concerns.
Why It Matters: The anticipated performance of gold aligns with earlier <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/24/11/41810728/jpmorgan-predicts-strong-performance-for-bitcoin-and-gold-under-trump-presidency">predictions by&nbsp;JPMorgan</a>, which foresaw significant gains for both Bitcoin and gold following Trump&#8217;s presidential win. This is attributed to a &#8220;debasement trade,&#8221; where assets like gold are seen as reliable stores of value amid currency devaluation.
Despite the chaotic metals market post-Trump&#8217;s re-election,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/11/41877899/trump-re-election-jolts-metals-market-as-gold-sees-a-stumble-not-a-sea-change">JPMorgan&#8217;s Commodities Research team</a>&nbsp;emphasized that gold&#8217;s recent fluctuations are merely a &#8220;stumble, not a sea change.&#8221; Meanwhile, some voices, like&nbsp;Michael Saylor, advocate for a <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/24/12/42413650/michael-saylor-urges-us-to-ditch-gold-for-bitcoin-sell-the-past-own-the-future">shift towards Bitcoin</a>, labeling gold as outdated. However, gold&#8217;s enduring appeal as a safe haven remains significant amidst geopolitical uncertainties.
Price Action: According to <a href="https://pro.benzinga.com">Benzinga Pro</a>, Gold ETFs have been experiencing an upward tick after Trump&#8217;s win in the 2024 elections. SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>) increased by 4.54% while iShares Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IAU#NYSE">IAU</a>) rose by 4.52%. VanEck Gold Miners ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GDX#NYSE">GDX</a>) witnessed an 8.25% rise in the past month while VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GDXJ#NYSE">GDXJ</a>) rose by 10.57%.
Read Next:&nbsp;
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/movers/24/12/42380768/quantum-computing-stocks-roundup-d-wave-rigetti-ionq-lead-the-charge-with-explosive-growth?itm_source=parsely-api" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Quantum Computing Stocks Roundup: D-Wave, Rigetti, IonQ Lead the Charge With Explosive Growth</a></li>
</ul>
Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of&nbsp;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/author/benzinga-neuro" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Benzinga Neuro</a>&nbsp;and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
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Gold To Shine Bright In 2025 As Top Investment Bank Predicts Bullish Outlook Amid Trade Tensions

On CNBC's &#8220;<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/video/2024/12/05/final-trades-nasdaq-the-ibit-and-the-iau.html">Halftime Report Final Trades</a>,&#8221; Bill Baruch of Blue Line Capital picked iShares Bitcoin Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IBIT#NYSE">IBIT</a>), saying this &#8220;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/IBIT">breakout is for real.&#8221;</a>
At the time of writing, Bitcoin price fell around 0.5% to trade at $98,660.13 on Friday.
Liz Young Thomas of SoFi named iShares Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IAU#NYSE">IAU</a>) as her final trade.
Gold futures climbed 0.6% to trade at $2,663.40 an ounce this morning.
Don't forget to check out our<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/premarket/"> premarket coverage here</a>
Joshua Brown of Ritholtz Wealth Management said he likes Nasdaq, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NDAQ#NASDAQ">NDAQ</a>).
On Oct. 24, Nasdaq reported third-quarter revenue growth of 22% year-on-year to $1.15 billion, missing the analyst consensus estimate of $1.17 billion. The financial services company reported an adjusted EPS of 74 cents, which beat the analyst consensus estimate of 69 cents. The stock price slid after the print. Nasdaq&#8217;s Annualized Recurring Revenue (ARR) increased 31% year-over-year to $2.74 billion.
Nasdaq CEO Adena Friedman praised the "fourth consecutive quarter of double-digit Solutions growth <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/24/10/41517629/nasdaq-sees-recurring-revenue-soar-31-in-q3-solutions-rake-in-872m">with strong overall quarterly performance."</a>
Price Action:
<ul>
<li>iShares Bitcoin Trust slipped by 0.04% on Thursday.</li>
<li>Nasdaq shares rose by 0.5% to settle at $81.27 during Thursday's session.</li>
<li>iShares Gold Trust fell by 0.7% on Thursday.</li>
</ul>
Check This Out<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/24/12/42357598/dow-dips-more-than-200-points-ahead-of-jobs-report-investor-sentiment-declines-fear-greed-index-remains-in-greed-zone">: </a>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/24/12/42357598/dow-dips-more-than-200-points-ahead-of-jobs-report-investor-sentiment-declines-fear-greed-index-remains-in-greed-zone">Dow Takes A Breather After Record Close, Dips Over 200 Points Ahead Of Jobs Report: Fear Index Remains In &#8216;Greed&#8217; Zone</a></li>
</ul>

Coverage of Bitcoin, Etherum, Ripple and all the latest digital currencies.

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Bitcoin 'Breakout Is For Real,' Analyst Says On CNBC's Final Trades

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CNBC Halftime Report Final Trades: Nasdaq, iShares Bitcoin Trust, iShares Gold Trust Shares of the iShares Gold Trust

Goldman Sachs has projected a substantial increase in gold prices for the coming year, driven by heightened central bank acquisitions and expected reductions in U.S. interest rates.
What Happened: Goldman Sachs has identified gold as a leading commodity trade for 2025, with prices anticipated to reach $3,000 per ounce by December 2025. Analysts, including Daan Struyven, pointed to increasing demand from central banks as a key driver of this forecast, Bloomberg <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-18/goldman-says-go-for-gold-as-central-banks-buy-fed-cuts-in-25">reported</a> on Monday.
"Go for gold," analysts said in a note.
They also foresee a cyclical boost from rising investments in exchange-traded funds (ETFs) as the Federal Reserve enacts rate cuts. Additionally, geopolitical risks, particularly concerning Iran, could influence oil supply due to potential increased U.S. support for Israel and stricter sanctions enforcement.
See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/24/11/42028797/tesla-soars-over-5-in-overnight-trading-as-trump-administration-reportedly-seeks-to-ease-fsd-norms?itm_source=parsely-api" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Tesla Soars Over 5% In Overnight Trading As Trump Administration Reportedly Seeks To Ease FSD Norms</a>
Gold ETFs have demonstrated robust performance in terms of year-to-date (YTD) returns, as per <a href="https://pro.benzinga.com">Benzinga Pro</a>. SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>) has risen 24.05%, iShares Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IAU#NYSE">IAU</a>) increased by 24.22%, SPDR Gold MiniShares Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLDM#NYSE">GLDM</a>) climbed by 24.38%, abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SGOL#NYSE">SGOL</a>) gained 24.29%, and iShares Gold Trust Micro (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IAUM#NYSE">IAUM</a>) advanced 24.08% year-to-date.
Why It Matters: The forecast by Goldman Sachs comes amid significant movements in the gold market. In October, the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), the largest physically backed gold ETF, experienced its highest monthly<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/24/10/41663633/biggest-gold-etf-posts-highest-monthly-inflows-in-2-5-years-as-investors-rush-to-"> inflows in 2.5 years earlier this month,</a> driven by economic and policy uncertainties surrounding the U.S. presidential election. This influx pushed the fund&#8217;s assets under management to $79.7 billion by the end of October, with $1.8 billion in net inflows for the month.
However, the sentiment shifted dramatically after Donald Trump&#8216;s election victory, leading to a<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs/specialty-etfs/24/11/41888750/gold-etf-hit-with-1-billion-outflow-investors-dump-safe-haven-asset-after-trump-win"> $1 billion outflow </a>from the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) in early November. This marked the largest weekly outflow in over two years, as investors moved away from the safe-haven asset, anticipating a strong dollar under Trump&#8217;s second term.
Read Next: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/24/11/42022585/michael-van-de-poppe-says-bitcoin-ethereum-and-altcoins-close-to-the-point-where-investors-can-buy-the-dip?itm_source=parsely-api" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Michael Van De Poppe Says Bitcoin, Ethereum And Altcoins Close To The Point Where Investors Can &#8216;Buy The Dip&#8217;</a></li>
</ul>
Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of&nbsp;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/author/benzinga-neuro" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Benzinga Neuro</a>&nbsp;and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
Image via Shutterstock

IAUM

SGOL

'Go For Gold,' Says Goldman Sachs: Precious Yellow Metal Price Would Rise In 2025 Amid Central Bank Buying, Fed Rate Cuts

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/2024-11-11_08h27_15.png" alt="" style="width:624px" /></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Trump Trade Rolls On&nbsp;</h3>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-gold-money-flows-bitcoin-soars-mc-11112024">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>The Arora Report&#8217;s call on bitcoin has proven spot on. &nbsp; <a href="https://blog.thearorareport.com/stock-market-110924/">On Friday, we wrote</a>:</li>
</ul>
<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is being bought on hope that whales will take advantage of low liquidity during the weekend to run bitcoin up over $80,000.
</blockquote>
<ul>
<li>The chart shows that bitcoin has moved to $81,866 as of this writing.</li>
<li>RSI on the chart shows that bitcoin is overbought.&nbsp; However, in The Arora Report analysis, the RSI pattern shown on the chart is setting up for a higher bitcoin price, perhaps after a shallow pullback.&nbsp; The next target for bitcoin is $100,000.</li>
<li>The chart shows the support zone for bitcoin.</li>
<li>The chart shows that bitcoin broke out on Trump's election.&nbsp; Trump has said he wants to be the crypto president.&nbsp; As full disclosure, The Arora Report also gave a signal on Trump's election to buy bitcoin via ETF iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IBIT#NASDAQ">IBIT</a>).&nbsp; Bitcoin is also in The Arora Report&#8217;s ZYX Allocation Model Portfolio.</li>
<li>Money is flowing out of gold and other commodities, such as oil, and into cryptos.  For the first time iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) has become bigger than iShares Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IAU#NYSE">IAU</a>).  On Trump's election, a record $1.4B money inflow took place in IBIT.</li>
<li>When looking at gold and bitcoin, investors need to understand that the gold market is not being manipulated, while bitcoin can easily be manipulated.&nbsp; Anytime an asset can be easily manipulated, it can be driven higher than you would think.</li>
<li>Other crypto tokens are also moving. Dogecoin, created as a joke, has gone up 40% since Friday.&nbsp; The meme crowd is going all in on smaller coins.</li>
<li>Sentiment has reached the extreme zone.&nbsp; When sentiment reaches extreme positive, it is traditionally a sell signal.&nbsp; However, sentiment is not a precise timing signal.&nbsp; Also, this time is different because of the momentum from Trump's election.&nbsp; The Arora Report's sentiment indicator is a 360 degree view and is very comprehensive.&nbsp; Investors looking for a short cut may at this time look at bitcoin as an indication of sentiment.</li>
<li>Investors need to understand that this is as pure of a momentum market as it gets.&nbsp; Momentum is great as long as it is going up.&nbsp; However, a break in momentum can cause major losses, especially in popular stocks.&nbsp; </li>
<li>Based on the weekend pump, there is aggressive buying in stocks by retail investors in the early trade.&nbsp; Buying is extremely aggressive in Trump stocks, such as Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>). TSLA stock is up over 6% in the premarket, after moving up 8.2% on Friday.&nbsp; Tesla CEO Elon Musk is expected to be the most influential person in Trump's administration, but without an official appointment.</li>
<li>Trump's election is impacting markets across the globe.&nbsp; Please see below for examples.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">China</h3>
There is disappointment in the markets about China's stimulus.
China&#8217;s trade surplus is set to hit a record of almost $1T.&nbsp; Trump is likely to focus on this record.&nbsp;
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">India</h3>
The Reserve Bank of India is likely to let the Indian currency rupee weaken to compete with the Chinese yuan after Trump's election.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Japan</h3>
The Bank of Japan failed to bolster the yen after Trump's election.&nbsp; The yen has weakened.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Europe</h3>
There are reports that Trump and Putin have spoken in a bid to settle the Ukraine war.&nbsp; Russia is denying the report.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h3>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>), Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>), NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>), and Tesla (TSLA).
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>) and Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are positive in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h3>
The momo crowd is aggressively buying stocks in the early trade.&nbsp; Smart money is inactive in the early trade.
Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling.&nbsp; Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money's ways.&nbsp; The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Very Very Short-Term Indicator</h3>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.  Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.  The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).  The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).  The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h3>
Please see above.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h3>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.&nbsp; The proprietary protection band from The Arora Report is very popular.&nbsp; The protection band puts all of the data, all of the indicators, all of the news, all of the crosscurrents, all of the models, and all of the analysis in an analytical framework that is easily actionable by investors.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h3>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

Market Summary

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TSLA

Money Flows Out Of Gold Into Bitcoin, Next Bitcoin Stop $100,000, Aggressive Buying In Tesla

The re-election of Donald Trump <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/commodities">has metals markets</a> looking a little like a shaken-up snow globe—chaotic and swirling. 
While some metals might be facing a rocky road, JPMorgan's Commodities Research team, led by Greg Shearer, sees gold as holding strong through the turbulence, calling recent gold action a "stumble not a sea change."
Here's the JPMorgan breakdown on what to watch in metals as this political shift unfolds.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">"Timing and Sequencing Will Be Critical" For Base Metals</h2>
As tariff tensions escalate, Peterson and his team emphasize that "policy timing and sequencing will be critical." They anticipate that China's response will likely be "a more reactive mechanism" once tariffs are in place, rather than a proactive approach. In practical terms, this suggests that the market may start to factor in "risk premia" in the weeks ahead.
Traders should buckle up as base metals brace for near-term turbulence, holding off for now on any major plays.
Investors in base metal ETFs such as the United States Copper Index Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CPER#NYSE">CPER</a>) and the Invesco DB Base Metals Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DBB#NYSE">DBB</a>) should remain wary of their holdings.
The analysts say one metal could break the trend, though: aluminum. With supply issues dogging the bauxite market, aluminum has an "idiosyncratic fundamental support" that could "significantly mitigate bearishness from a weaker CNY." So, while aluminum may stay relatively resilient, other base metals might be taking a temporary backseat.
Read Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/commodities/24/11/41793159/trumps-victory-a-tailwind-for-domestic-steel-risk-for-canada-say-analysts">Trump&#8217;s Victory A Tailwind For Domestic Steel, Risk For Canada, Say Analysts</a>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Gold: The "Debasement Trade" Keeps The Glitter</h2>
Gold experienced a dip following the election, but JPMorgan sees this as a temporary setback rather than a major shift. With potential U.S. fiscal challenges and rising inflation concerns, Peterson anticipates gold will perform strongly in the coming years, projecting it could reach $2,850 per ounce by late 2025.
This "debasement trade" may make gold the go-to hedge as the new administration's policies take shape, especially as inflationary pressures bubble up.
This may bode well for investors in the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>) and the iShares Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IAU#NYSE">IAU</a>).
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">The Yuan Factor: Copper's Achilles' Heel?</h2>
Another key factor here is the yuan (CNY). If Trump's policies lead to further yuan depreciation—potentially up to 7.40 or even 7.8, according to JPMorgan's FX strategists—copper prices could see a roughly 5% hit, dragging prices down to around $9,000 per metric ton.
Aluminum, again, may be shielded somewhat by those supply issues, but other base metals could be feeling the squeeze.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Gold Glimmers While Base Metals Hold Their Breath</h2>
For the metals market, Trump's second term brings headwinds and a few golden highlights. 
While base metals might see some strategic waiting time, aluminum could be one of the few to withstand the early hits. 
Gold, meanwhile, has the long game in sight, with JPMorgan's "debasement trade" fueling bullish forecasts.
Read Next: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/24/11/41810728/jpmorgan-predicts-strong-performance-for-bitcoin-and-gold-under-trump-presidency">JPMorgan Predicts Strong Performance For Bitcoin And Gold Under Trump Presidency</a></li>
</ul>
Photo: Shutterstock

Analyst Color

Long Ideas

CPER

Trump Re-Election Jolts Metals Market As Gold Sees A 'Stumble, Not A Sea Change'

Amid the fallout from <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/global/24/10/41126038/iran-attacks-israel-with-missiles-middle-east-tensions-escalates-s-p-500-stocks-bitcoin-fall-as-oil">Iran&#8217;s missile attack</a> against Israel on Tuesday, market observers are closely watching the unfolding conflict and its possible effects on <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/gold">gold prices</a>.
What Happened: Iran fired 100 to 200 missiles at Israel on Tuesday. The attack came following several Israeli strikes on the Lebanon-based Hezbollah, an Iranian proxy. 
Israel has been at war with Hamas, also <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/politics/24/07/39941704/netanyahu-addresses-us-congress-emphasizes-alliance-against-iran-in-middle-east-give-us-the-tool">supported by Iran</a>, since Oct. 7, 2023, following a <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/23/10/35136071/israel-under-siege-unprecedented-hamas-attack-sparks-intense-clashes-netanyahu-says-we-are-at-war">Hamas terrorist attack</a> that left over 1,000 Israelis dead. Israel&#8217;s subsequent military campaign against Hamas in Gaza resulted in a reported death toll of over 40,000, <a href="https://www.middleeasteye.net/live-blog/live-blog-update/gaza-death-toll-tops-41638-after-51-killed-past-day?nid=394896&amp;topic=Israel%2527s%2520war%2520on%2520Gaza&amp;fid=532496">according</a> to the Gaza Health Ministry.
Iran&#8217;s most significant geopolitical rival, Saudi Arabia, has normalized <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/asia/23/09/35005546/how-the-us-saudi-defense-pact-could-reshape-middle-east-geopolitics">relations with Israel</a> in recent years with American support. The Iranians and Saudis have already engaged in proxy warfare in Yemen, among other countries, for decades. The most recent developments, however, point to a possible direct warfare between Middle Eastern spheres of influence.
The United States and its allies are particularly concerned with <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/09/40868101/us-and-allies-worried-amid-reports-of-russia-potentially-sharing-nuclear-secrets-with-iran">Iran&#8217;s nuclear development</a>.
Impact On Gold: Investors flock to gold during times of economic and geopolitical uncertainty. Financial markets might experience heightened volatility during such a conflict, with investors seeking safer alternatives. A confrontation between Israel and Iran would likely increase demand for gold, driving up prices.
Further conflict in the Middle East could disrupt oil supplies, leading to higher global energy prices, which might contribute to inflation. Since gold is often seen as a hedge against inflation, this could further boost demand for gold.
While it is yet unclear whether Iran&#8217;s attack on Israel will escalate to something larger, any news seemingly pointing in that direction will send gold prices higher.
Gold Price Action: The SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>), iShares Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IAU#NYSE">IAU</a>) and SPDR Gold MiniShares Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLDM#NYSE">GLDM</a>) are among the largest gold ETFs.
While gold prices moved higher following Iran&#8217;s military action on Tuesday, gains quickly subsided. The SPDR Gold Trust is trading just 0.44% higher than it did on Monday.
Gold&#8217;s muted price action could indicate one of two things. Investors may already have priced in the likelihood of war breaking out in the Middle East. Thus, Tuesday&#8217;s missile attack might not have surprised market observers, who are already weary of possible warfare.
Alternatively, investors could be skeptical of the likelihood of the conflict between Iran and Israel escalating further. Several scares in Middle Eastern relations in recent years have not amounted to large-scale conflict.
Regardless, gold has had a remarkable year, hovering near an all-time high price. The commodity is trading 28% higher in 2024 and has increased 44.17% in the last 12 months.
Also Read:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/10/41143156/oil-prices-spike-energy-stocks-jump-after-irans-missile-attack-on-israel-what-investors-need-to-know">Oil Prices Spike, Energy Stocks Jump After Iran&#8217;s Missile Attack On Israel: What Investors Need To Know</a></li>
</ul>
Photo: Shutterstock

Investors Look To Gold As Middle East Tensions Rise: How Israel-Iran Conflict Could Impact Prices

Gold is back in the spotlight, and eyes are on the Fed. As the U.S. Federal Reserve prepares for what could be an aggressive rate cut, gold ETFs, especially the gold-bullion tracking ETFs such as the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>) and the iShares Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IAU#NYSE">IAU</a>), are <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/gold">riding the wave</a>.
Gold prices, already hovering near record highs, are inching closer to a breakthrough that could send the precious metal into uncharted territory.
With the dollar softening, the allure of gold as a safe haven has only intensified. Year-to-date, the GLD has surged nearly 25% and the IAU has gained about 25%, outpacing broader market indices like the S&amp;P 500 (which is up 18% in comparison). While physical gold-tracking ETFs have been surging, ETFs tracking gold miners haven&#8217;t been left behind.
The VanEck Gold Miners ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GDX#NYSE">GDX</a>) is up about 27% YTD and the VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GDXJ#NYSE">GDXJ</a>) is up 28% YTD.
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Gold Shines on Dovish Fed, Weaker Dollar</h1>
Investors seem unfazed by today's slight lull in prices — understandable, given the anticipation of a possible 50-basis-point rate cut. The weakening dollar, compounded by the Fed&#8217;s dovish tone, is creating the perfect storm for gold to shine even brighter.
Behind the scenes, central banks and institutional buyers have been steadily piling into gold, boosting its momentum. Over the past three months, gold-tracking ETFs have drawn in billions in inflows, with retail investors now jumping on board, hoping to capitalize on the metal's momentum.
The net inflows into these ETFs signal that many see more upside ahead, especially as the Fed's anticipated rate cuts could push yields lower, further reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold.
Read Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/24/09/40862122/rate-cut-prospects-fuel-investor-risk-appetite-gold-hits-record-highs-harris-outperforms-trump-t">Rate-Cut Prospects Fuel Investor Risk Appetite, Gold Hits Record Highs, Harris Outperforms Trump: This Week In The Markets</a>
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Gold Emerging As A Preferred Hedge</h1>
The macroeconomic backdrop has added extra fuel to the rally. From rising geopolitical tensions to global economic uncertainties, investors are seeking shelter, and gold is emerging as their preferred hedge. The metal's safe-haven appeal is being bolstered by fears of economic slowdowns, not just in the U.S. but globally. 
China's persistent economic struggles, for example, are only adding to the demand for gold, as investors diversify away from riskier assets.
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">What Could Temper Gold Bulls?</h1>
While a rate cut seems all but certain, there are still factors that could keep a lid on gold's upside. Any sign of a more conservative move by the Fed, such as a smaller-than-expected cut, could temper bullish enthusiasm. 
There's also the possibility that stronger-than-expected economic data could boost the dollar, muting gold's rally.
For now, though, the combination of central bank buying, ETF inflows and weakening dollar dynamics makes gold an attractive option for those looking to ride out market volatility.
With the potential for gold to push through its previous highs, investors are watching closely to see if the Fed's next move will give the precious metal the final nudge it needs.
Will gold soar to new heights, or will a more cautious Fed decision put the brakes on the rally? The only thing certain is that, for now, gold is shining brighter than ever.
Read Next: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/09/40891378/ahead-of-fomc-meeting-paul-krugman-says-fed-rates-will-be-elevated-even-with-50-bps">Ahead Of FOMC Meeting Paul Krugman Says Fed Rates Will Be Elevated Even With 50 Bps Cut: &#8216;Argument For Incrementalism Is Very Weak&#8217;</a></li>
</ul>
Photo: Shutterstock

Gold ETFs Poised For Liftoff: Can The Fed's Rate Cut Propel Prices To New Heights?

Goldman Sachs (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GS#NYSE">GS</a>) reinforced its bullish outlook on gold, citing increased central bank demand and expectations of a U.S. Federal Reserve <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/federal-reserve" rel="noreferrer noopener">interest rate cut</a> tomorrow.
"While we see some tactical downside to gold prices under our economists' base case of a 25bp Fed cut on Wednesday, we reiterate our long gold trading recommendation and our price target of $2,700/oz by early 2025," the investment bank said in a note.
With the price of gold making new all-time highs, reaching 2589.60 on the spot market, the two-quarter upside price target of 5% doesn't seem much. At the moment, the market is pricing a 65% chance of a 50-basis-point cut tomorrow, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-d&amp;q=cme+fed+watchtool" rel="noreferrer noopener">per</a> the CME FedWatch tool.
Now read:<a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/24/09/40861213/why-interest-rate-cuts-wont-automatically-boost-the-stock-market" rel="noreferrer noopener"> Why Interest Rate Cuts Won't Automatically Boost The Stock Market</a>
Gold is traditionally seen as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty. With the U.S. recession still in discussion and a Fed pivot toward more accommodative monetary policies, investor interest in gold is <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/09/40689742/goldman-sachs-bullish-on-gold-wall-street-giant-targets-2-700-by-early-2025-driven-" rel="noreferrer noopener">expected to remain strong</a>, accompanied by buying from foreign central banks, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/asia/24/05/38649656/how-chinas-central-bank-gold-buying-frenzy-drove-prices-to-record-highs-attracting-gen-z-to-gold-bea" rel="noreferrer noopener">particularly China</a>.
The Fed's anticipated rate cuts could <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/24/09/40861213/why-interest-rate-cuts-wont-automatically-boost-the-stock-market" rel="noreferrer noopener">lower bond yields</a>, making gold more attractive as it does not generate interest.
In contrast to its positive gold outlook, the bank recently downgraded its projection for iron ore prices. The bank slashed its fourth-quarter 2024 forecast by $15 per metric ton, lowering it to $85 due to concerns of oversupply despite stabilizing demand from China.
Despite China's attempts at economic stimulus and rising steel demand, the broader economic slowdown and the real estate crisis have dampened demand for iron ore. Its futures briefly dipped below $90, reaching the lowest point in almost two years.
Goldman noted that while there might be short-term support due to restocking ahead of the holiday week in October, but the continued buildup of iron ore inventories is likely to drive prices further down.
Supply-demand imbalances have been a key issue for the market, particularly with major players like Brazil's Vale and Australia's BHP maintaining production levels.
Kallanish Consulting analyst Ian Roper explained the current price dynamics <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/business/international/2024/09/11/iron-ore-tests-floor-as-plunge-to-90-a-ton-puts-mines-at-risk/" rel="noreferrer noopener">for</a> Bloomberg.
"We need to eliminate about 100 million tons to balance this market, and to do that, we need prices to settle in the $80s," he noted.
Also read:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/09/40875211/bhp-group-sounds-alarm-on-copper-supply-ai-and-ev-growth-could-drive-prices-soaring-report" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">BHP Group Sounds Alarm on Copper Supply, AI and EV Growth Could Drive Prices Soaring: Report</a></li>
</ul>
Benzinga Mining is the bridge between mining companies and retail investors. Reach out to <a href="mailto:licensing@benzinga.com" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">licensing@benzinga.com</a> to get started!
Image via Shutterstock

Guidance

AAAU

PICK

Market Vectors Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Etf

REMX

SILJ

SLVP

Goldman Sachs Sees Gold Higher, Takes A Downbeat Stance On Iron Ore

Mohamed El-Erian, Chief Economic Advisor at Allianz, highlighted on X writing &#8220;Gold is trading within $5 of a new record high.&#8221;
What Happened: El-Erian posted a screenshot showing gold prices at $2524.06, reflecting a 5.87% gain. The lowest close was recorded at $2369.31 on Aug. 5, with a 30-day average price of $2453.21. 
Gold mining stocks have recently experienced a notable surge in value. The VanEck Gold Miners ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GDX#NYSE">GDX</a>), which includes holdings like Newmont (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NEM#NYSE">NEM</a>), Agnico Eagle Mines (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AEM#NYSE">AEM</a>), and Barrick Gold (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOLD#NYSE">GOLD</a>), has risen by 26.51% this year, according to <a href="https://pro.benzinga.com/dashboard">data from Benzinga Pro data</a>.
Similarly, other ETFs such as SPDR Gold MiniShares Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLDM#NYSE">GLDM</a>), iShares Gold Trust Micro Shares (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IAUM#NYSE">IAUM</a>), and iShares Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IAU#NYSE">IAU</a>) have also seen gains of over 21% this year.
Historically, gold reached an all-time high of $2,531.70 in August. The precious metal last traded at $2,509, and December futures contracts are currently trading at $2,543.70, down 0.45%. Year to date, gold prices have gained approximately 22.3%.
<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"> 
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">Gold is trading within $5 of a new record high.<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/economy?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#economy</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/markets?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#markets</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/gold?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#gold</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/econtwitter?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#econtwitter</a> <a href="https://t.co/hzcQCutV9a">pic.twitter.com/hzcQCutV9a</a>
&mdash; Mohamed A. El-Erian (@elerianm) <a href="https://twitter.com/elerianm/status/1828048988072816986?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">August 26, 2024</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></div>
</figure>
See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/asia/24/08/40563191/nasdaq-100-falls-1-tests-50-day-average-support-tech-stocks-in-flux-on-monday">Nasdaq 100 Falls 1%, Tests 50-Day Average Support: Tech Stocks In Flux On Monday</a>
Why It Matters: The recent rise in gold prices follows a series of bullish predictions and market movements. Last week, <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/08/40457722/gold-is-getting-its-moment-in-the-sun-and-experts-say-the-record-high-prices-could-">experts noted</a> that gold had surged approximately 20% this year, reaching a record high. Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, highlighted that gold has been in an "uninterrupted rally" since October when it was priced at $1,810 an ounce.
Further bolstering this trend, Ryan McIntyre, Managing Partner at Sprott Inc., predicted that gold prices would remain &#8220;very positive&#8221; for <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/08/40509313/expert-predicts-gold-to-be-very-positive-for-next-18-months-a-whole-new-source-of-m">the next 18 months</a>. He attributed this to increased buying by central banks and recent inflows into ETFs backed by gold.
Adding to the optimistic outlook, J.P. Morgan Research estimated that gold would exceed $2,500 per ounce by the end of 2024, with predictions that it would reach $2,600 per ounce by 2025. This forecast underscores gold&#8217;s role as a safe investment, <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/startups/24/08/40550668/jpmorgan-predicts-2-600-gold-prices-by-2025-what-a-1-million-gold-bar-means-for-the-market">especially amid economic uncertainty</a>.
Read Next: 
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/24/08/40541513/bitcoin-atm-market-is-undergoing-necessary-correction-coinflip-founder-daniel-polotsky-say?itm_source=parsely-api" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Bitcoin ATM Market Is Undergoing &#8216;Necessary Correction,&#8217; CoinFlip Founder Daniel Polotsky Says</a></li>
</ul>
Image Via Shutterstock 
This story was generated using <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/author/benzinga-neuro">Benzinga Neuro</a> and edited by <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/Kaustubh-Bagalkote" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Kaustubh Bagalkote</a>

GOLD

Mohamed El-Erian Observes Spike In Gold Says, Precious Metal 'Trading Within $5 Of A New Record High'

In a recent interview, Ryan McIntyre, Managing Partner at Sprott Inc., forecasted a bright future for gold prices, expecting them to remain &#8216;very positive&#8217; for the next 18 months and beyond.
What Happened: McIntyre appeared on CNBC&#8217;s &#8220;Squawk Box&#8221; on Wednesday to discuss the record highs in gold prices. He attributed the surge to several factors, including increased buying by central banks and recent inflows into ETFs backed by gold. 
&#8220;To us, that&#8217;s a whole new source of madness coming in. So we see gold as being very positive over the next 18 months and beyond, frankly,&#8221; McIntyre said.
McIntyre also highlighted the fiscal situation of many Western governments as a significant driver behind the spike in gold demand. 
&#8220;We&#8217;re running 7% deficits today, in a nonrecessionary environment, which is pretty unique circumstance,&#8221; he explained.
See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/08/40501889/nvidia-stock-to-surge-to-340-in-medium-term-portfolio-manager-sees-strong-rally-int?itm_source=parsely-api" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Nvidia Stock To Surge To $340 In Medium Term? Portfolio Manager Sees Strong Rally Interspersed By 35-80% &nbsp;Pullbacks</a>
He further noted that gold is seen as a tangible real asset and probably the &#8220;only true hedge against elevated sovereign risks that we see in the future.&#8221;
Why It Matters: McIntyre&#8217;s comments come in the wake of a significant rise in gold prices, which have surged approximately 20% this year, reaching a record high <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/08/40457722/gold-is-getting-its-moment-in-the-sun-and-experts-say-the-record-high-prices-could-">just shy of $2,500 an ounce</a>. The price of gold has been on an "uninterrupted rally" since October when it was priced at $1,810 an ounce.
Furthermore, the ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, have intensified the<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/24/08/40445319/gold-nears-record-highs-amid-geopolitical-uncertainty-and-fed-speculations"> demand for safe-haven assets</a> like gold, pushing its price near record peaks. The fluctuating news from the region casts doubt on the success of ceasefire talks between Israel and Gaza, thereby boosting gold&#8217;s appeal as a secure investment.
Moreover, the anticipation of a <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/asia/24/08/40503528/asia-mixed-europe-markets-advance-gold-steady-near-all-time-high-dollar-strengthens-global-markets-t">September rate cut </a>by the Federal Reserve, as indicated by the FOMC minutes, has solidified expectations and added to the market anticipation, keeping gold prices steady near their all-time high.
Price Action: At the time of writing on Thursday during market hours, iShares Gold Trust Micro (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IAUM#NYSE">IAUM</a>) was trading 1.32% lower at $24.72, SPDR Gold MiniShares Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLDM#NYSE">GLDM</a>) was down by 1.32%, and iShares Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IAU#NYSE">IAU</a>) was trading 1.43% lower, according to <a href="https://pro.benzinga.com">Benzinga Pro</a>.
Read Next: 
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/24/08/40498543/amid-heated-trump-harris-battle-crypto-industry-pours-unprecedented-119m-into-2024-electio?itm_source=parsely-api" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Amid Heated Trump-Harris Battle, Crypto Industry Pours &#8216;Unprecedented&#8217; $119M Into 2024 Elections</a></li>
</ul>
Image via Shutterstock
This story was generated using <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/author/benzinga-neuro">Benzinga Neuro</a> and edited by <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/Pooja-Rajkumari" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Pooja Rajkumari</a>

Expert Predicts Gold To Be 'Very Positive' For Next 18 Months: 'A Whole New Source Of Madness Coming In'

The price of gold has <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/large-cap/24/08/40419054/gold-prices-hit-all-time-highs-of-2-500-as-traders-jump-on-rate-cut-train-mining-stocks-on-the-mov">reached an all-time high</a>, and experts are predicting that it could climb even higher due to a combination of factors.
What Happened: Gold prices have surged approximately 20% this year, reaching a record high on Friday. The spot gold price is now just shy of $2,500 an ounce.
Ole Hansen, the head of the commodity strategy at Denmark&#8217;s Saxo Bank, in a Monday note, stated that the price rally has been in an &#8220;uninterrupted rally&#8221; since October when gold was priced at $1,810 an ounce. A standard-size gold bar of about 400 troy ounces now costs over $1 million.
See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/24/08/40453739/elon-musk-sends-dogecoin-spiking-with-ai-generated-image-says-willing-to-serve-in-governme?itm_source=parsely-api" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Elon Musk Sends Dogecoin Spiking With AI-Generated Image, Says &#8216;Willing To Serve&#8217; In Government Department That Spells D.O.G.E.</a>
What&#8217;s Driving The Market Higher?
A potential <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/08/40433267/mary-daly-of-federal-reserve-pitches-gradual-interest-rate-cuts-citing-inflation-confidence-we-are-o#:~:text=She%20emphasized%20the%20need%20for,%25%2C%20according%20to%20the%20report.">Federal Reserve interest rate cut,</a> following slower-than-expected July inflation data and higher unemployment figures, is a significant factor driving the market&#8217;s expectation for higher gold prices. Investors are eagerly awaiting Jerome Powell&#8217;s keynote at the Fed&#8217;s annual symposium at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, on Friday, for indications of the central bank&#8217;s next move.
Daniela Sabin Hathorn, a senior market analyst at Capital.com, <a href="https://capital.com/jackson-hole-preview-all-eyes-on-powell-and-gold">wrote</a>, &#8220;The question now is how big will the rate cut be?&#8221; A larger rate cut could lead to higher gold prices as a fall in US interest rates typically depresses bond yields and the greenback, driving investment into gold, which is internationally denominated in the dollar.
Geopolitical risks such as the wars in Ukraine, the Middle East, and the upcoming US presidential election are also boosting the appeal of gold, a traditional safe haven. In China, consumers are buying gold to preserve value amid a depressed economic environment, a property crisis, and a weak currency.
Hansen wrote, &#8220;Continued central bank demand amid geopolitical uncertainty and de-dollarization, and not least gold&#8217;s ability to offer a level of security and stability that other assets may not provide&#8221; would support the yellow metal.
Gold Outpaces Bitcoin Gains
Gold has also surpassed Bitcoin&#8217;s (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) performance, indicating that <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/24/08/40107228/why-golds-luster-could-ignite-a-digital-gold-bitcoin-rally-10x-research">cryptocurrencies may not serve</a> as the effective hedge against lower interest rates, a declining dollar, and financial instability that Bitcoin proponents had anticipated. Over the past month, Bitcoin has dropped more than 10%, while gold prices have risen by 6% since mid-July.
"Gold is getting its moment in the sun, and investors are taking note," said Jason Goepfert, senior research analyst with Sundial Capital Research, <a href="https://www.barrons.com/amp/articles/gold-price-record-high-rally-1e904b77">reported</a> Barron&#8217;s.
Why It Matters: Gold is often viewed as a safe-haven investment in times of economic and political uncertainty. The precious metal can also serve as a hedge against declines in the value of the U.S. dollar. This has been a key factor in the recent surge in gold prices, <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/24/08/40349152/barrick-ceo-on-high-gold-prices-why-he-says-the-miner-is-undervalued-you-get-a-lot-for-free">as highlighted</a> by Barrick Gold Corp.&#8217;s CEO, Mark Bristow, who stated that the world&#8217;s geopolitical situation is the primary reason for the surge in gold prices, not inflation.
Meanwhile, Gold mining stocks have recently seen a significant rise in value. The VanEck Gold Miners exchange-traded fund (ETF) (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GDX#NYSE">GDX</a>), which includes holdings such as Newmont (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NEM#NYSE">NEM</a>), Agnico Eagle Mines (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AEM#NYSE">AEM</a>), and Barrick Gold (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOLD#NYSE">GOLD</a>), has increased by nearly 25% this year, according to data from <a href="http://pro.benzinga.com">Benzinga Pro</a>. Typically, when gold prices rise, the profits and sales for these mining companies also surge.
Other ETFs such as SPDR Gold MiniShares Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLDM#NYSE">GLDM</a>) and iShares Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IAU#NYSE">IAU</a>) have also gained over 21% this year. 
Disclaimer:&nbsp;This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
Read Next: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/08/40409247/former-google-ceo-eric-schmidt-highlights-nvidia-as-major-ai-player-in-now-deleted-video-thats-not-a?itm_source=parsely-api" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Former Google CEO Eric Schmidt Highlights Nvidia As Major AI Player In Now Deleted Video</a>
Photo courtesy: Michael Sutton via Flickr

Gold 'Is Getting Its Moment In The Sun' And Experts Say The Record High Prices Could Climb Even Higher: Here's The Case For Even More Glittering Gains

Billionaire investor Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, recently highlighted <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/us-china-relations-0">escalating U.S.-China tensions</a> and the importance of diversification in the face of growing global risks.
Speaking at the Greenwich Economic Forum in Hong Kong, Dalio emphasized the potential for significant economic and political upheaval in the coming years, as <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-05/ray-dalio-touts-us-elections-china-conflicts-as-global-risks?cmpid=BBD060524_OUS&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_source=newsletter&amp;utm_term=240605&amp;utm_campaign=openamericas">reported</a> by Bloomberg.
He stressed that U.S. election results and economic sanctions against China are among the most critical issues currently.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Risk Of Internal Conflicts Within The US</h2>
Dalio underscored the risk of internal conflicts within the U.S., particularly surrounding the contentious issue of election legitimacy.
He emphasized that the policies of a reelected Donald Trump would starkly contrast with those of a second-term Joe Biden presidency. However, he noted a bipartisan consensus on anti-China policies, which could lead to severe economic consequences on a global scale.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Economic Warfare Often Precedes Military Conflict</h2>
&#8220;There's a great risk of economic sanctions that would be really terrible for the world,&#8221; Dalio said, highlighting that economic warfare often precedes military conflict. He warned that the long-standing one-China policy, especially regarding Taiwan, could face significant challenges, affecting international investors.
Dalio painted a broader picture of a world facing unprecedented risks due to:
<ul>
<li>enormous debt levels</li>
<li>internal political strife</li>
<li>great power clashes. </li>
</ul>
Adding to these are natural disasters, pandemics, and the rapid advancement of artificial intelligence.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Economic Uncertainties Make Diversification Crucial</h2>
These uncertainties, he argued, make effective diversification in investments more crucial than ever. &#8220;The power of diversification is greater than the power of even good decision-making,&#8221; Dalio said. 
He stressed the need for investors to spread their assets across countries, currencies, and asset classes to mitigate risks. He noted that while Chinese assets have recently seen declines, they are now attractively priced, and Bridgewater has found effective ways to invest in China over the past five years.
Related: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/asia/24/04/38070613/billionaire-investor-ray-dalio-remains-bullish-on-china-despite-a-looming-100-year-storm-the-time-to">Billionaire Investor Ray Dalio Remains Bullish On China Despite A Looming &#8216;100-Year Storm&#8217;: &#8216;The Time To Buy Is When Everyone Hates The Market&#8217;</a>
Despite the tensions, Dalio remains invested in both the U.S. and China, recognizing their dominance in revolutionary new technologies. However, he also pointed to neutral states such as those in Southeast Asia, India, and the Middle East as attractive investment destinations, often faring better in conflicts compared to the main warring parties.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Dalio: Prefer Equity Over Debt, Hedge With Gold</h2>
Dalio expressed a preference for equity assets over debt, citing concerns about the latter&#8217;s inadequate returns. He warned that central banks holding significant debts may have to monetize losses, leading to late-cycle inflation.
Popular exchange-traded funds offering diversified exposure to U.S. equities include: the SPDR S&amp;P 500 (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>), the iShares Core S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IVV#NYSE">IVV</a>) and the Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VOO#NYSE">VOO</a>).
As a hedge, he recommended holding gold, which he described as the third-largest reserve currency after the U.S. dollar and the euro. The SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>) and the iShares Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IAU#NYSE">IAU</a>) are popular gold-tracking ETFs.
Dalio&#8217;s insights highlight the critical need for investors to diversify their portfolios amid rising global risks, particularly those stemming from U.S.-China economic tensions. By spreading investments across various regions and asset classes, investors can better navigate the uncertain landscape ahead.
Read Next: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/24/05/38946694/ray-dalio-us-on-the-brink-of-civil-war-but-not-one-where-people-grab-guns-and-sta">Ray Dalio: US &#8216;On The Brink&#8217; Of Civil War, But Not One Where People &#8216;Grab Guns And Start Shooting&#8217;</a>
Photo: <a href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/websummit/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Web Summit</a> on Flickr

Ray Dalio Warns Of US-China Economic Sanctions, Stresses Diversification

As the price of gold continues to soar, prominent economists Mohamed A. El-Erian and Peter Schiff are emphasizing the ongoing strength of the gold market. El-Erian highlights the significant expansion of the commodity rally, while Schiff underscores the importance of holding onto gold and silver assets amid a promising market outlook.
What Happened: El-Erian, the chief economic advisor at Allianz, took to X to share his thoughts on the recent surge in gold prices. He pointed out that the price of gold has hit over 20 new highs this year, with the latest highs being accompanied by a significant expansion of the commodity rally. El-Erian also noted that the drivers behind these highs now include a wider range of demand and supply factors.
&#8220;This month's new highs in the price of #gold is not unusual,&#8221; El-Erian wrote.
<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"> 
<div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">This month's new highs in the price of <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/gold?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#gold</a> is not unusual. We have had over twenty new highs so far this year. What I find more notable: (i) Recent highs have been accompanied by a significant broadening of the commodity rally; and (ii) Drivers now encompass a wider set of… <a href="https://t.co/TnynVeWSnQ">pic.twitter.com/TnynVeWSnQ</a>
&mdash; Mohamed A. El-Erian (@elerianm) <a href="https://twitter.com/elerianm/status/1792983521247764516?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 21, 2024</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></div>
</figure>
Meanwhile, Schiff, a <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/24/05/38911373/peter-schiff-says-bitcoin-is-dead-long-live-silver-but-is-it-really-true">well-known gold advocate</a> and Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) critic, also took to X to advise investors to hold on to their gold and silver assets. He warned that selling during a bull market is easy, but buying back in is the hard part. Schiff believes that the current gold rally is just getting started and that good things come to those who wait.
&#8220;Don&#8217;t sell any of your #gold or #silver. It&#8217;s easy to sell out of a bull market. The hard part is buying back in. Just sit tight and enjoy the ride. It&#8217;s likely just getting started. Good things come to those who wait. We&#8217;ve waited a long time, so what&#8217;s coming should be great,&#8221; Schiff wrote. 
<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"> 
<div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">Don&#39;t sell any of your <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/gold?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#gold</a> or <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/silver?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#silver</a>. It&#39;s easy to sell out of a bull market. The hard part is buying back in. Just sit tight and enjoy the ride. It&#39;s likely just getting started. Good things come to those who wait. We&#39;ve waited a long time, so what&#39;s coming should be great.
&mdash; Peter Schiff (@PeterSchiff) <a href="https://twitter.com/PeterSchiff/status/1792997390334513439?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 21, 2024</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></div>
</figure>
Investors interested in gold ETFs might check&nbsp;SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>), iShares Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IAU#NYSE">IAU</a>), Abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SGOL#NYSE">SGOL</a>), VanEck Gold Miners ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GDX#NYSE">GDX</a>), which invests in global gold miner equities.
<a href="https://x.com/PeterSchiff/status/1792997390334513439"></a>See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/24/05/38910906/bitcoin-dogecoin-ethereum-retrace-on-profit-taking-by-retail-investors-analyst-predicts-pa?itm_source=parsely-api" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Bitcoin, Dogecoin, Ethereum Retrace On Profit-Taking By Retail Investors: Analyst Predicts Parabolic Rise For King Crypto Following Consolidation Phase</a>
Why It Matters: The price of gold has been on a steady rise, recently hitting a new record high of $2,450 per ounce. This surge is attributed to the expectation that the U.S. Federal Reserve <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/24/05/38941163/gold-shatters-expectations-with-a-record-high-of-2-450-per-ounce-amid-expectations-of-lower-interes">might lower interest rates</a> by September, making gold a more attractive investment option.
This trend has also been reflected in the actions of prominent investors. For instance, Michael Burry, the legendary investor who predicted the 2008 financial crisis, <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/asia/24/05/38878116/big-short-investor-michael-burry-bets-heavy-on-gold-renewable-energy-stocks-exits-amazon-alphabet">recently made significant bets on gold</a> and renewable energy stocks, indicating a shift in investment strategies towards physical commodities and renewable energy.
However, not everyone is optimistic about the economic situation. Schiff, who is also the CEO of Euro Pacific Capital, recently criticized President Joe Biden&#8216;s new tariffs, <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/05/38862552/mohamed-el-erian-says-bond-and-equity-prices-getting-a-boost-after-softer-than-expected-headline-cpi">labeling them as taxes</a> that will only add to the economic misery.
Price Action: On Tuesday, Gold spot prices closed at $2,422 per ounce, up 0.07%, according to the data <a href="https://pro.benzinga.com/dashboard">from Benzinga Pro</a>.
Read Next: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/24/05/38909046/top-trader-ditches-bitcoin-for-altcoins-dogecoin-killer-shiba-inus-potential-breakout-and-?itm_source=parsely-api" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Top Trader Ditches Bitcoin For Altcoins, &#8216;Dogecoin Killer&#8217; Shiba Inu&#8217;s Potential Breakout And More</a>
Image Via Shutterstock 
This content was partially produced with the help of&nbsp;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/author/benzinga-neuro" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Benzinga Neuro</a>&nbsp;and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.

Mohamed El-Erian And Bitcoin-Critic Peter Schiff Highlight Gold's Soaring Prices And Market Momentum: 'Just Sit Tight And Enjoy The Ride'

Subscribers to&nbsp;Chart of the Week&nbsp;received this commentary on Sunday, April 7.
All eyes and ears are unwaveringly on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell&#39;s every move, eager for any morsel of information about interest rates. This past week, Powell spoke at Stanford University, sharing the Fed will more than likely lower the benchmark interest rate in the latter-half of the calendar year. While inflation did gain traction in January and February and many investors are worried the impending presidential election would impact timing, Powell shot down the concerns, brushing them off as unworthy of continued conspiracy.
Yet on Thursday, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari noted &quot;If we continue to see inflation moving sideways, then that would make me question whether we need to do those rate cuts at all.&quot; To further convolute the dynamic, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman on Friday went the other way, noting interest rates may have to be hiked to combat inflation. The lack of consensus from the central bank did a number on bond yields, with the 10-year Treasury yield last seen at 4.37%. The fallout from the bond yield spikage is not only a rough week for U.S equities, but also an extended runway for safe-haven assets like gold.
As the Fed see-saws and weighs the stream of economic data SPDR Gold Shares (ARCA:GLD) have made extreme moves to the upside, outpacing the broader market trends. Now Up 12.7% year-to-date, the shares are climbing above the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust&#39;s (SPY) 8.7% for the same time frame, and don&#39;t look to be slowing anytime soon.
Gold futures for March turned in an 8.4% leap, the commodity&#39;s best monthly performance since July 2020. The precious metal has enjoyed six consecutive fresh record highs, and are now forming a cup and handle pattern on the monthly chart with the 1,000-month moving average -- which tends to precede a bullish shift. Even further, it has taken out the level that is twice its 2016 lows at the round $100 mark and just last night saw its Initial and Maintenance Margin requirements lifted overnight by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME).
&nbsp;
<img alt="GLDcotw" src="https://schaeffers-cdn.s3.amazonaws.com/images/default-source/schaeffers-cdn-images/2024/april/mmo/gldcotw.jpg?sfvrsn=1ce8a606_2" style="height:497px; width:810px" />
It&#39;s hard to imagine what to expect in the coming months for gold, as surely it must be approaching its top. But this may not necessarily be the case when looking at six month returns and wider, as per data pulled by Schaeffer&#39;s Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White. Gold has gained at least 7.5% in one month, when compared to higher monthly returns since 1990. Typically, this has led to poor returns for gold over the short term. The next month has averaged a loss of 0.92%, with just 38% of the returns positive. The three-month returns are also bad, but it gets better at the six-month mark, where returns resume to being similar to other years and 12-month returns even outperform slightly.
<img alt="Goldreturnscotw" src="https://schaeffers-cdn.s3.amazonaws.com/images/default-source/schaeffers-cdn-images/2024/april/mmo/goldreturnscotw.jpg?sfvrsn=18e8a606_2" style="height:502px; width:551px" />
Until the Fed moves definitively in one direction, market activity will be anything but docile. The appeal of jumping aboard outperforming safe-haven assets for the long term will be hard to resist, especially when you factor in just how influential the incoming election season will be and the crescendo it will build to from summer to fall. Keep an ear to the ground and stay close to GLD&#39;s highly liquidated ETF peers VanEck Gold Miners (ARCA:GDX) and iShares Gold Trust (ARCA:IAU), as a diversified portfolio is almost always a good idea, especially with so many outside factors looming large.
The article &quot;<a href="https://www.marketbeat.com/articles/gold-where-will-it-go-after-this-record-breaking-run-2024-04-10/">Gold: Where Will It Go After This Record-Breaking Run?</a>&quot; first appeared on MarketBeat.

Federal Reserve

Gold: Where Will It Go After This Record-Breaking Run?

Gold prices have been on a tear lately, hitting a slew of record highs in the past two months. Gold prices climbed more than 20% since October. The yellow metal increased 4% last week and notched a third successive weekly gain. &nbsp;
U.S. gold futures gained 1.7% to $2,347.30 per ounce in the last trading session despite a solid uptick in nonfarm payrolls in March. So, what&#39;s behind gold prices shattering record highs? China&#39;s move to unremittingly add gold holdings, the Federal Reserve&#39;s dovish stance, and sticky inflation are helping gold prices scale northward.
The People&#39;s Bank of China purchased gold for the 17th consecutive month in March and extended its precious metal buying spree. China&#39;s gold reserves soared to 72.74 million ounces last month.
China increased its gold reserves since the bullion metal is considered usually a safe-haven asset that provides financial security amid uncertainty in the global markets. After all, Chinese legislators have noticed how the Western governments confiscated Russia&#39;s reserves following their invasion of Ukraine.
What&#39;s more, trade conflicts with the United States and geopolitical upheavals around Taiwan would compel China to keep acquiring gold. China, at present, has the wherewithal to buy the yellow metal as the manufacturing side of its economy expanded in March for the first time in six months.
Several countries, along with China, are also buying gold to partly replace the dollar, a process better known as de-dollarization. This is because gold not only acts as a security but also increases investment value.
In the United States, most of the market participants are expecting the Fed to start trimming interest rates in the latter half of 2024. Traders are now pricing in a more than 50% chance that the central bank will cut interest rates in June. Fed Chair Jerome Powell also assured investors about interest rate cuts and wasn&#39;t taken aback by the current rise in the PCE index.
Needless to say, a lower interest rate environment makes fixed-income investments less enticing. Since these instruments can&#39;t provide higher yields, money will flow out of them, and flow into gold. On the other hand, a rise in the key inflation gauge for the time being acts as a boon for the yellow metal. This is because gold acts as a hedge against inflation.
Hence, as gold shimmers, gold mining stocks have a fair chance to gain. These stocks have been bearing an uptick in production expenses due to higher labor costs. But with gold prices rallying, the miners are well-poised to join in.
The iShares Gold Trust (ARCA:IAU), by the way, has gained 12.6% so far this year. This calls for astute investors to keep a tab on gold mining stocks such as Aris Mining Corporation (AMEX:ARMN), Equinox Gold (AMEX:EQX), Idaho Strategic Resources (AMEX:IDR) and Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/tfpm#NYSE">TFPM</a>). These stocks have a Zacks Rank#3 (Hold).
<img alt="Zacks Investment Research" src="https://staticx-tuner.zacks.com/images/articles/charts/7c/64473.jpg?v=1382519239" />

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Aris Mining is a gold producer primarily in the United States. The company&#39;s expected earnings growth rate for the current year is 65.8%. Its estimated earnings growth rate for next year is 87.3%.
Equinox Gold is involved in exploring and developing gold deposits. Its main projects include the Mesquite gold mine in California. The company&#39;s expected earnings growth rate for the current year is 71.4%. Its estimated earnings growth rate for next year is 350%.
Idaho Strategic Resources predominantly produces gold at the Golden Chest Mine. The company&#39;s expected earnings growth rate for the current and next quarter are 500% and 133.3%, respectively. Its estimated earnings growth rate for the current year is 200%.
Triple Flag Precious Metals is a gold-focused streaming and royalty company that provides financial solutions to the mining industry worldwide including the United States. The company&#39;s expected earnings growth rate for the current year is 21.2%. Its estimated earnings growth rate for next year is 32.5%.
<a href="https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/2251800/4-stocks-to-keep-an-eye-on-as-the-yellow-metal-glitters?cid=CS-BENZ-FT-analyst_blog|investment_ideas-2251800">To read this article on Zacks.com click here.</a>

ARMN

TFPM

4 Stocks to Keep an Eye on as the Yellow Metal Glitters

U.S. government debt is reaching unsustainable levels, and the latest analysis points to an even<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/treasuries/24/02/37227285/government-debt-exceeds-120-of-gdp-why-former-imf-economist-very-worried-about-us-fiscal-crisis"> more concerning future.</a>
A new economic model developed by Bloomberg Economics predicts that in 88% of scenarios, U.S. debt as a percentage of GDP will rise in the coming 10 years.
In a Monday letter to investors, Citadel founder Ken Griffin <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/24/04/38039631/ken-griffin-slams-irresponsible-us-deficit-we-must-stop-borrowing-at-the-expense-">referred to mounting national debt as a significant issue</a>, saying that &#8220;we must stop borrowing at the expense of future generations.&#8221;
According to a recent survey, about 85% of Americans worry that current debt levels <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/02/37324835/ticking-time-bomb-over-85-of-americans-fear-national-debt-crisis-impact-on-their-fu">could have a negative impact in their future</a>.
Official data from the St. Louis Fed shows that debt equaled 121% of the country&#8217;s GDP in the last quarter of 2023. The rate has floated around 120% in past years, after peaking at 132% during the COVID pandemic. These levels are above a previous historical record set following World War II.
In late May 2023, <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/23/06/32704441/biden-signs-debt-ceiling-bill-to-avert-government-default">the government averted a default by raising the debt limit even higher</a> in an emergency measure. While lawmakers on both sides of the aisle agree that government borrowing has reached unhealthy levels, a lack of agreement as to how to solve the problem keeps Congress from finding a satisfactory solution.
Earlier this year Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that the current rate of debt acquisition <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/startups/24/02/37156426/jerome-powell-says-34-trillion-national-debt-is-ready-for-an-adult-conversation-janet-yellen-calls-s">means we're ​​&#8221;borrowing from future generations,"</a> and called for elected officials to have an adult conversation "about getting the federal government back on a sustainable fiscal path.&#8221;
With <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/24/03/37851477/u-s-national-debt-has-increased-by-nearly-8-5-billion-per-day-over-the-past-year">national debt increasing by an average of $8.5 billion a day during the past year</a>, Republicans generally argue for spending cuts, while Democrats point towards problems in tax revenue and high interest rates as the causes behind the rising fiscal deficit.
A recent budget proposal by President Joe Biden is aimed at reducing the federal deficit by $3 trillion in the next decade <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/24/03/37603424/bidens-budget-aims-to-slash-us-deficit-by-3-trillion-next-decade-through-higher-taxes-on-wealthy-big">by raising taxes on wealthy individuals and corporations</a>.
Where To Find Safe Haven: Bank of America chief strategist Michael Hartnett recently linked a rise in <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/money/how-to-invest-in-gold">gold</a> and Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) with rising concerns over debt, as investors look for hedges against a possible debt-led crises affecting the U.S. economy.
As opposed to the U.S. dollar, which can be emitted to infinity by printing new cash, both Bitcoin and gold have a cap on their supply, making them safer assets to store value in times of economic volatility.
Also read: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com//node/37227285">Government Debt Exceeds 120% Of GDP: Why Former IMF Economist &#8216;Very Worried&#8217; About US Fiscal Crisis</a>
SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>), the largest ETF following the gold market by total assets, has gained over 23% in the last six months. Other gold ETFs, including iShares Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IAU#NYSE">IAU</a>) and Abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SGOL#NYSE">SGOL</a>) follow a similar trajectory.
<a href="https://www.benzinga.com//node/38053974">Bitcoin has hit a slump this week,</a> losing 5% of its value at the time of writing on Tuesday, yet the cryptocurrency has been enjoying a rally in recent months.
When concerns about national debt dominate the news, investors typically seek assets known for retaining value. With the debt ceiling suspension set to last until Jan. 1, 2025, Congress is likely to face another stand-off on debt issues following the <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/2024-election">presidential election in November</a>, regardless of the winning candidate.
Real estate is another sector known to serve as a store of value, and investors can take part without the need to buy actual land. ETFs following the sector reflect its growth trends, with some of the largest being Vanguard Real Estate Index Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VNQ#NYSE">VNQ</a>) and Schwab US REIT ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SCHH#NYSE">SCHH</a>).
ETFs following companies in Europe, Asia, Australia and other developed territories, also known as foreign asset ETFs, can also serve as a safe haven from U.S. volatility. Some of the largest include Vanguard Tax Managed Fund FTSE Developed Markets ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VEA#NYSE">VEA</a>) as well as iShares Core MSCI EAFE ETF (BATS:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IEFA#BATS">IEFA</a>).
The new <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-01/us-government-debt-risk-a-million-simulations-show-danger-ahead?srnd=homepage-europe&amp;sref=TBDibEcD">report</a> by Bloomberg Economics executed one million simulations tinkering with several variables in order to encompass the widest possible range of future scenarios. In 88% of the scenarios, the debt ratio went up between now and 2034, making the path of U.S. government debt unsustainable.
Bloomberg's team started its analysis by setting off from projections published by the Congressional Budget Office, which warned earlier this year that the fiscal deficit is spinning out of control, even when assuming that inflation will stabilize at 2% and the<a href="https://www.benzinga.com//node/38021818"> Fed will drop interest rates</a>.
The firm used a computational analysis which created a model using "market pricing for future interest rates and data on the maturity profile of bonds," and its results surpassed Congress' predictions, taking U.S. debt into new records over the coming decade.
Now read: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com//node/37839953">Elon Musk Calls For &#8216;Strong-Willed President&#8217; After GOP Rep Warns &#8216;Economic Catastrophe Must Happen&#8217; Before Congress Gets Serious About &#8216;Out-Of-Control Spending&#8217;</a>
Photo: Shutterstock

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National Debt Drama Deepens: Where To Stash Your Cash When The Fiscal Sky Falls

Gold prices are projected to rise to $2,500-$2,600 per ounce, representing an&nbsp;attractive portfolio hedge for equity investors, according to a Bank of America report published this week. 
As the precious metal surged to fresh record highs following the Fed March meeting, investment and ETF strategist Jared Woodard from Bank of America identified two primary engines driving gold&#8217;s unprecedented rally: its hedging quality <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/gold">and central bank purchases. </a>
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Chart: Gold Hit Record Highs Post-Fed March 2024 Meeting</h1>
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="495" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/21115130/image-47-1024x495.png" alt="" class="wp-image-260971" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/21115130/image-47-1024x495.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/21115130/image-47-300x145.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/21115130/image-47-768x372.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/21115130/image-47-1536x743.png 1536w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/21115130/image-47.png 1920w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Key Drivers Sending Gold To Record Highs</h1>
&#8220;Gold&nbsp;has the lowest correlation to the S&amp;P 500 of almost any asset class and&nbsp;can act as a haven if inflation reaccelerates or growth slows&nbsp;later this year,&#8221; Woodard wrote.
Woodard highlighted that &#8220;central banks have been hoarding gold like never before,&#8221; accumulating over 2,100&nbsp;tons&nbsp;in the past&nbsp;two&nbsp;years.
The expert also stressed that unlike previous rallies, the current surge in gold&#8217;s value has largely bypassed retail investors. This is evidenced by a 25% drop in total ETF gold holdings, suggesting that prices could have been even higher if retail participation mirrored that of institutional entities.
This gap presents a potential for increased demand, especially if yields decrease, possibly driving prices to the $2500-$2600 range, as predicted by Bank of America technical analyst Paul Ciana.
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">A Preference for Physical Gold ETFs Over Miners</h1>
When considering how to get exposure to gold, Woodard and his team advocate for physical gold ETFs, such as iShares Gold Trust Micro (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IAUM#NYSE">IAUM</a>) and SPDR Gold Minishares Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLDM#NYSE">GLDM</a>), which are less expensive than the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>) and iShares Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IAU#NYSE">IAU</a>). 
Physical gold ETFs are also preferred versus miner ETFs, as the former offers a more stable and direct exposure to the commodity&#8217;s value.
Bank of America showed that in the long timeframe, gold mining ETFs have not kept pace with their physical counterparts, partly due to the presence of mining companies disproportionately affected by downturns, diluting potential gains.
The expert recommended prioritizing mining stocks with a higher ratio of upside to downside beta, such as Barrick Gold Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOLD#NYSE">GOLD</a>) or Newmont Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NEM#NYSE">NEM</a>), to capitalize on gold&#8217;s positive trajectory while mitigating risk.
In the mining ETFs arena, Bank of America&#8217;s preference is on the iShares MSCI Global Gold Miners ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/RING#NYSE">RING</a>) and the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GDX#NYSE">GDX</a>) as it &#8220;offers above average risk-adjusted returns and buy-rated stock exposure&#8221; compared to Sprott Gold Miners ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SGDM#NYSE">SGDM</a>) and VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GDXJ#NYSE">GDXJ</a>)
Read now: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/03/37870905/feds-dovish-stance-ignites-market-rally-everybody-is-bullish-veteran-wall-street-in">Fed&#8217;s Dovish Stance Ignites Market Rally: &#8216;Everybody Is Bullish,&#8217; Veteran Wall Street Investor Says</a>
Photo: Shutterstock

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Gold Investors Should Own These ETFs, Says Bank Of America: Why Analysts Expect Gold Spike To $2,600

The price of gold continues <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/03/37577133/gold-stocks-could-gain-in-catch-up-rally-says-peter-schiff-explosive-move-up-cant-b">its record run</a>.
Speculators are piling into the precious metal at a <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/gold">rate not seen since 2019</a>.
The price of gold futures dipped by 0.1% on Monday. But, a series of new record highs were struck last week. Over the five trading sessions of last week, gold added 4.3%
Exchange-traded funds that track the price of gold notched up similar performances. The SPDR Gold Shares ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>) gained 4.5% over the week; the iShares Gold Trust ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IAU#NYSE">IAU</a>) climbed 4.6%.
Also Read: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/03/37577133/gold-stocks-could-gain-in-catch-up-rally-says-peter-schiff-explosive-move-up-cant-b">Gold Stocks Could Gain In Catch-Up Rally, Says Peter Schiff: &#8216;Explosive Move Up Can&#8217;t Be Far Away&#8217;</a>
The investment environment behind gold&#8217;s recent performance is a Goldilocks scenario of &#8220;just right&#8221; conditions according to many analysts.
Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy at ING, said last week&#8217;s higher-than-expected jobless rate increased expectations that the Federal Reserve may be moving closer to looser monetary policy, which would be supportive of gold as the dollar weakens.
He added: &#8220;We expect gold prices to trade higher this year as safe-haven demand continues to be supportive amid geopolitical uncertainty with ongoing wars and the upcoming US election.&#8221;
Bill Baruch, president of commodities brokerage firm Blue Line Futures, said gold&#8217;s move was &#8220;the canary in the mine,&#8221; signifying the start of a &#8220;multi-year bull market in metals.&#8221;
He added: &#8220;Although gold has been in a bull trend since 2019, silver, copper and others have struggled. The tide is shifting. Be ready.&#8221;
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Bullish Speculative Positions</h2>
The latest weekly speculative positioning data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed net longs in COMEX gold rose by 63,018 lots — the biggest weekly addition since June 2019. It was the third consecutive week of increases and took total net long positions to 131,060 lots.
Gold miners, however, continued to underperform the commodity but, after falling 17.5% between Dec. 28 and Feb. 28 — as measured by the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GDX#NYSE">GDX</a>) — gold miners shares might, finally be catching up some lost ground, having gained 15% since Feb. 28.
Newmont Goldcorp (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NEM#NYSE">NEM</a>), the top holding in the ETF, gained 6.3% last week. Barrick Gold Corp (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOLD#NYSE">GOLD</a>) gained 5.5% over the week.
Now Read: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/24/03/37565192/gold-surges-in-blue-skies-mining-sector-prepares-for-bull-cycle-this-etf-offers-2x-lever">Gold Surges In Blue Skies, Mining Sector Prepares For Bull Cycle: This ETF Offers 2X Leverage During A Run Higher</a>
Image: Shutterstock

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Futures

Gold Speculators Pave The Way For 'Multiyear Bull Market In Metals'

Global physically backed gold ETFs recorded outflows for the ninth consecutive month despite gold trading at <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/large-cap/24/03/37547023/gold-shines-brighter-than-ai-driven-semiconductor-stocks-7-mining-stocks-to-watch-with-prices-at-r">fresh all-time highs</a>.
Outflows from these ETFs amounted to $5.7 billion year-to-date, mainly in North America, which accounted for $4.7 billion. The <a href="https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-etfs-holdings-and-flows/2024/02">data</a> included a $2.9 billion outflow in February, pointing at a potentially accelerating downtrend.
According <a href="https://www.gold.org/news-and-events/press-releases/geopolitical-and-economic-uncertainty-bolster-gold-demand-and-prices">to</a> The World Gold Council, factors contributing to this trend include a strong labor market, higher-than-expected inflation and investor expectations of a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve. 
The rebound in the 10-year Treasury yield and a stronger dollar further weighed on gold prices and ETF holdings in the region. The strength of U.S. equities also diverted investor attention away from gold.
On a global scale, Asia experienced net inflows for the 12th consecutive month, while other regions faced limited losses. Geopolitical tensions, including conflicts in Ukraine, Israel and the Middle East, along with rising trade protectionism and resource nationalism, contributed to disruptions in global supply chains and drove additional interest in the precious metal.
Now Read: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/large-cap/24/03/37547023/gold-shines-brighter-than-ai-driven-semiconductor-stocks-7-mining-stocks-to-watch-with-prices-at-r">Gold Shines Brighter Than AI-Driven Semiconductor Stocks: 7 Mining Stocks To Watch With The Ore At Record Highs</a>
Despite the sustained outflows from gold ETFs, the price surge of precious metal continues, driven by a jump in speculative betting and <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/asia/24/03/37551998/chinas-gold-buying-spree-continues-16-month-streak-challenges-us-dollar-dominance">physical demand from China</a>. Analysts attribute the rise to weak U.S. economic data and anticipation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut later in the year.
"Central-bank demand for the precious metal remains historically strong, and that&#8217;s clearly helping drive up the gold price as sovereign nations favor the precious metal as a safe haven against the worsening geopolitical outlook,&#8221; Adrian Ash, director of research at BullionVault said in an interview <a href="https://www.marketwatch.com/story/gold-looks-to-score-another-record-high-settlement-but-its-no-gold-rush-in-the-west-457611e1">for</a> MarketWatch.
While Ash clarified these new all-time highs could be vulnerable to central banks because gold pays no income, he added that "any dip could prove a good opportunity to buy into the underlying strength in gold."
Despite Bitcoin&#8217;s rising popularity, gold and Bitcoin ETFs have seen divergent trends. Gold ETFs faced outflows, while Bitcoin ETFs experienced inflows. Yet, <a href="https://www.marketwatch.com/story/gold-looks-to-score-another-record-high-settlement-but-its-no-gold-rush-in-the-west-457611e1">per</a> Martin Leinweber, a digital assets product strategist at MarketVector Indexes, gold and Bitcoin are not yet substitutes. The fact that the former's ETFs have seen inflows while the latter has seen outflows might just be a coincidence since he believed investors still see Bitcoin as a risky asset.
Investors interested in gold ETFs might Check SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>), iShares Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IAU#NYSE">IAU</a>), Abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SGOL#NYSE">SGOL</a>) or VanEck Gold Miners (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GDX#NYSE">GDX</a>), which invests in global gold miner equities.
Also Read: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/03/37535370/ecuador-joins-the-copper-rush-invests-3-2b-in-solgold">Ecuador Joins The Copper Rush, Invests $3.2B In SolGold</a>
Photo: Pixabay

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​​​​​​​The Federal Reserve somehow surprised traders with a hawkish rate cut this week. While that had been expected, apparently the Fed's projected rate-cut trajectory slowed even more than feared.

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