iShares Core S&P 500 ETF에 대한 매도 수량은 투자자에게 iShares Core S&P 500 ETF의 주식 하락에 베팅하는 정도를 알려줍니다. 매도 수량 데이터는 2주마다 업데이트됩니다.

iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (ARCA:IVV), 공매도 수량 보고

iShares Core S&P 500 ETF

Technology

Financial Services

Healthcare

Consumer Cyclical

Communication Services

Industrials

Consumer Defensive

Energy

Utilities

Real Estate

Basic Materials

The Fund seeks to track the investment results of the S&P 500, the Underlying Index, which measures the performance of the large-capitalization sector of the U.S. equity market, as determined by S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, the Index Provider or SPDJI.

Apple Inc

Microsoft Corp

Nvidia Corp.

Amazon.Com Inc

Meta Platforms Inc

Alphabet Inc.Class A

Alphabet Inc Cl C

Berkshire Hathaway, Inc.

Broadcom Inc Common

Eli Lilly & Co.

Tesla Motors, Inc.

wall street, mercados estadounidenses

Long Ideas

Broad U.S. Equity ETFs

Trading Ideas

ETFs

또다시 미국 신용등급 강등이 발생했다. 지난 금요일(16일) 미국 증시가 주말을 위해 마감한 이후 무디스는 조용히 미국의 장기 신용등급을 Aaa에서 Aa1으로 강등했다. 이러한 상황이 익숙하게 느껴진다면, 이는 시장의 플레이북이 꽤 일관되게 유지되어 왔기 때문이다. 시장은 세 번째로 패닉에 빠질까, 아니면 마침내 진정하는 법을 배웠을까?

S&amp;P 500 지수, 과거에는 미국 신용등급 강등 후 10% 하락 후 35% 랠리···이번에는 다를까?

S&P 500

Earnings

Earnings Beats

News

S&amp;P 500 지수는 일부 강세론자도 예상하지 못했던 연승 행진을 조용히 이어가고 있다. S&amp;P 500 지수는 2개 분기 연속 두 자릿수 퍼센트의 이익 성장률을 기록했고, 1분기에는 13.4% 성장을 기록했다. 이는 SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF(NYSE:SPY), iShares Core S&amp;P 500 ETF(NYSE:IVV) 및 Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF(NYSE:VOO) 등 ETF 투자자들에게 좋은 소식이었다. 

S&amp;P 500 1분기 이익 성장률 13.4%···통신 서비스, 금융 및 헬스케어 섹터 주도

wall street chart shutter2

AMZN

GOOGL

TSLA

월스트리트는 금요일에 예상보다 높은 인플레이션 보고서와 임박한 무역 관세에 대한 우려가 커지면서 투자자들이 기대치를 재평가하기 위해 바쁘게 움직이면서 발목이 잡혔다. 광범위한 지수를 추적하는 ETF인 S&amp;P 500과 나스닥 100, SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust(NYSE:SPY), The iShares Core S&amp;P 500 ETF(NYSE:IVV) 및 Invesco QQQ Trust(NASDAQ:QQQ)는 최근 인플레이션 수치와 우려스러운 소비자 심리 보고서를 처리하면서 손실을 입었다.

정체된 인플레이션이 시장에 부담 — SPY, QQQ, 기술주들이 타격 받아

BlackRock ETF Trust II iShares Large Cap Deep Buffer ETF

Invivyd Inc

IVIVI TECHNOLOGIES INC by IVIVI Technologies, Inc.

Ivivi Technologies Inc

BlackRock ETF Trust II iShares Large Cap Moderate Buffer ETF

iShares Trust iShares S&P 500 BuyWrite ETF

In a telling reversal in the universe of <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs">passive investing</a>, frugal investors are seemingly voting with their feet, away from traditional heavyweight SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and toward its cheaper counterpart, the Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VOO#NYSE">VOO</a>). FactSet data, cited by etf.com, shows that VOO saw $14.9 billion in net inflows during the 30 days ended May 22, while SPY saw the biggest outflows of any exchange-traded fund, $17.3 billion.
Also Read: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs/currency-etfs/25/05/45624803/forget-stocks-these-currency-etfs-are-where-tactical-traders-can-park-their-cash">Forget Stocks, These Currency ETFs Are Where Tactical Traders Can Park Their Cash</a>
This sharp divergence of fund flows between two virtually identical S&amp;P 500-index ETFs reflects a deeper trend of passive asset consolidation where expense ratios are becoming ever more influential in driving investor behavior. While SPY and VOO posted exactly the same 7.1% returns over the past month, the latter&#8217;s lower expense ratio of 0.03% versus SPY&#8217;s 0.09% has appealed to investors operating in an environment of increasing market volatility and macro uncertainty.
As of May 23, VOO had $659.2 billion in assets under management, outpacing SPY&#8217;s $607.9 billion and solidifying its position as the world&#8217;s largest asset under management ETF.
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Legacy Fund Meets Cost-Effective Upstart</h1>
While SPY boasts the title of being the original U.S.-listed ETF and long the market leader, its expense structure is rapidly becoming a handicap in the presence of lower-cost alternatives. 
SPY exists as a Unit Investment Trust (UIT), which ties its hands when it comes to reinvesting dividends and from exercising flexibility in portfolio management. On the other hand, VOO, an open-end fund structure, permits reinvesting and generally has more optimal tax management.
Liquidity continues to be a differentiator for SPY, particularly among institutional investors who appreciate its narrower bid-ask spreads and rich trading volume. Yet for long-term owners, both retail and institutional, the cost difference seems to be prevailing. The steady drain of assets out of SPY indicates a heightened preference for long-term cost-effectiveness over short-term trading convenience.
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">IVV Vs VOO: Two Low-Cost Colossi, One Champion</h1>
BlackRock&#8217;s iShares Core S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IVV#NYSE">IVV</a>) has also registered huge outflows, with $10.2 billion out over the same timeframe as SPY and VOO, even as it provides an expense ratio of 0.03%, equal to VOO&#8217;s. IVV has $586.6 billion in assets and is also an open-end fund structure, theoretically providing the same cost benefit as VOO. Investor bias appears to have fallen overwhelmingly towards Vanguard.
The difference could be in long-term investor sentiment and brand trust. Vanguard&#8217;s brand of client ownership and dominance among long-term passive investors could be tipping the balance. Additionally, VOO recently reached AUM high could be further fueling the &#8220;herding&#8221; tendency commonly experienced in asset flows, as size tends to attract more flows, solidifying its dominance.
BlackRock&#8217;s core equity exposure product lineup, while industry-leading in other areas such as fixed income and thematic strategies, might be losing ground as investors are moving to concentrate positions in one low-cost provider.
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">VOO Becomes The Passive Benchmark</h1>
While VOO keeps setting the pace in inflows and redefining the pecking order in S&amp;P 500 ETFs, investors&#8217; message is unequivocal: in passive investing, basis points matter. Amidst a world where low-fee, high-efficiency investing reigns supreme, Vanguard&#8217;s leader equity ETF is not merely tracking the market, it&#8217;s leading it.
Read Next: 
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/regulations/25/05/45621929/confidence-bounces-back-thanks-to-us-china-deal-but-consumers-still-play-it-safe">Confidence Bounces Back Thanks To US-China Deal, But Consumers Still Play It Safe</a></li>
</ul>
Photo: Shutterstock

ETF Showdown: VOO Gains Billions While SPY, IVV Bleed Cash

It's downgrade déjà vu. Late Friday, after Wall Street had already packed up for the weekend, Moody's quietly dropped the hammer: the U.S. just got its <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/econ-s/25/05/45479078/moodys-downgrades-us-credit-rating-over-debt-deficit-concerns">credit rating cut from Aaa to Aa1</a>.
If this feels familiar, that's because it is &#8211; and the market's playbook has been pretty consistent. The real question now: Will the market freak out for the third time, or has it finally learned to chill?
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Another 10% Correction Coming?</h2>
Let's rewind.
In August 2011, Standard &amp; Poor's made history by downgrading U.S. debt for the first time ever. The result? A 10.37% drop in the S&amp;P 500 Index over the next 41 trading days, <a href="https://x.com/adamkhootrader/status/1923970924589744439">according</a> to data analyzed by Piranha Profits. But fast forward 12 months, and the index was up 36%. Investors who bought the dip didn't just survive &#8211; they thrived.
Then came August 2023, when Fitch pulled the same move. Same script, different year. The S&amp;P 500 slid 10.31% over 58 trading days. But again &#8211; patience paid off. One year later, stocks were up a cool 37%.
Now, here comes Moody's, joining the downgrade party. And yes, if the market follows precedent, we could be looking at another 10% correction.
Read Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/05/45486452/jim-cramer-recalls-2011s-6-7-market-decline-after-us-debt-downgrade-says-it-ultimately-meant-nothing-dan-niles-sees-limited-downside-amid-tariff-rollbacks-fomo">Jim Cramer Recalls 2011&#8217;s 6.7% Market Decline After US Debt Downgrade, Says It &#8216;Ultimately Meant Nothing:&#8217; Dan Niles Sees Limited Downside Amid Tariff Rollbacks, FOMO</a>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Bulls Have Reasons To Shrug This One Off &#8211; But Will They?</h2>
But here's the twist &#8211; after two prior false alarms, has Wall Street stopped reacting to credit downgrades like it's the end of the world? After all, these cuts haven't exactly spelled disaster in the long run. Quite the opposite.
And let's not ignore the context: strong earnings from tech giants, resilient consumer spending, and cooling inflation may give bulls a reason to shrug this one off.
But if markets do panic on Monday, history suggests it could be yet another gift-wrapped opportunity to scoop up high-quality stocks at a discount.
Because if there's one thing we've learned, it's this: America's credit rating may slip &#8211; but investor memory tends to fade faster than a market dip lasts.
For investors holding broad S&amp;P 500 ETFs like SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>), iShares Core S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IVV#NYSE">IVV</a>), and Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VOO#NYSE">VOO</a>), the Moody's downgrade may feel unsettling at first glance &#8211; especially heading into Monday's open. But history offers a useful compass. During the past two U.S. debt downgrades in 2011 and 2023, the S&amp;P 500 fell over 10% within two months, only to surge more than 35% over the following year. If markets follow a similar playbook, any short-term volatility could prove to be a golden buying window for long-term investors. 
In other words, don't be surprised if passive index investors wind up thanking Moody's by this time next year.
Will Wall Street overreact a third time? 
Or has the market finally grown up? 
We'll find out Monday.
Read Next: 
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/05/45488403/moodys-had-an-investment-grade-rating-on-us-debt-during-2008-global-financial-crisis-recent-cut-not-a-huge-shock-says-expert">Moody&#8217;s Had An Investment Grade Rating On US Debt During 2008 Global Financial Crisis: Recent Cut &#8216;Not A Huge Shock,&#8217; Says Expert</a></li>
</ul>
Photo: Shutterstock

S&P 500 History Suggests 10% Drop After Downgrade — Followed By 35% Rally

<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/personal-finance/25/05/45192749/ray-dalio-says-chasing-wealth-without-purpose-is-a-tragedy-dont-make-money-itself-the-goal">Ray Dalio</a>'s Bridgewater Associates just made a massive portfolio move that's bound to raise eyebrows <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/SPY/news" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">on Wall Street</a>. 
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Is Berkshire&#8217;s Portfolio Sending A Message</h2>
According to its first quarter <a href="https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1350694/000117266125001828/xslForm13F_X02/primary_doc.xml">13F filin</a>g, the world's largest hedge fund slashed its top holding — the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) — by nearly 60%, dumping 4.9 million shares. The fund still holds over 3.3 million SPY shares, but the dramatic trim slashed its portfolio weighting from 22.1% to just 8.7%.
It didn't stop there. Nvidia Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>), Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>) and Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOGL#NASDAQ">GOOGL</a>) (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>) all got haircuts, with share reductions of 18.7%, 31.5%, and 16% respectively. These aren't minor trims — they're deliberate signals. 
Dalio may no longer be Bridgewater's CEO, but his macro fingerprints still linger in the firm's playbook.
Read Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/05/45442127/palantir-soars-500-in-a-year-while-unitedhealth-tanks-40-tech-leaves-healthcare-in-the-dust">Palantir Soars 500% In A Year While UnitedHealth Tanks 40% — Tech Leaves Healthcare In The Dust</a>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Gold In, Tech Out?</h2>
If there's a pivot in the air, it's sparkling — Bridgewater added a fresh position in SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>), which now ranks in its top ten holdings. Combined with fresh buying in Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BABA#NYSE">BABA</a>) (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BABAF#NYSE">BABAF</a>) and a double-down in emerging markets via the iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IEMG#NYSE">IEMG</a>), the shift feels tactical — away from frothy U.S. equities, toward value, hedges, and international exposure.
Interestingly, while SPY took a hit, its ETF cousins iShares Core S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IVV#NYSE">IVV</a>) and IEMG saw inflows. It's not a total U.S. equity exodus — it's a reallocation. And that's a warning worth watching.
For holders of SPY, IVV, and VOO, the message is mixed. While SPY got snipped, IVV was topped up. Bridgewater's moves suggest caution, not panic — but if Dalio's reading tea leaves, he's seeing clouds.
Read Next: 
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/25/05/45445101/rout-to-rally-sp-500-stages-fastest-flip-in-market-history-with-22-comeback">Rout To Rally: S&amp;P 500 Stages Fastest Flip In Market History With 22% Comeback</a></li>
</ul>
Image: Shutterstock

Hedge Funds

BABA

ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD by Alibaba Group Holding Limited

BABAF

GOOG

IEMG

NVDA

Ray Dalio's Bridgewater Dumps SPY, Trims Nvidia, Meta, Alphabet — Bearish Vibes?

From despair to euphoria in record time, <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/s-p-500">the S&amp;P 500</a> has pulled off a historic U-turn, rallying 22% from its April 7 lows to turn green on the year.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/pro/register?utm_adType=bzprocontent&amp;utm_campaign=14daytrial&amp;utm_ad=0515"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="633" height="488" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/15105908/Screenshot-2025-05-15-at-8.26.50-PM.png" alt="" class="wp-image-916749" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/15105908/Screenshot-2025-05-15-at-8.26.50-PM.png 633w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/15105908/Screenshot-2025-05-15-at-8.26.50-PM-300x231.png 300w" sizes="(max-width: 633px) 100vw, 633px" /></a></figure>
<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/pro/register?utm_adType=bzprocontent&amp;utm_campaign=14daytrial&amp;utm_ad=0515" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Chart created using Benzinga Pro</a>
Charlie Bilello, founder of Compound Capital Advisors, <a href="https://x.com/charliebilello/status/1922302125024923719?s=31">called it</a> &#8220;one of the biggest short-term comebacks in market history.&#8221; And it's not just an index story &#8211; ETF investors in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>), the iShares Core S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IVV#NYSE">IVV</a>) and the Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VOO#NYSE">VOO</a>) are riding the same wave.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Trade Truce Sparks Turbocharged Turnaround</h2>
What triggered the rip? 
A sudden thaw in U.S.-China trade tensions. Tariff threats that had markets rattled just weeks ago were slashed: the U.S. <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/regulations/25/05/45348699/us-listed-chinese-stocks-rally-as-countries-agree-to-ease-import-tariffs">cut its rate on Chinese goods</a> from 145% to 30%, and China blinked right back &#8211; lowering its retaliatory tariffs from 125% to 10%. Global markets exhaled, and stocks took flight.
Read Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/05/45442127/palantir-soars-500-in-a-year-while-unitedhealth-tanks-40-tech-leaves-healthcare-in-the-dust">Palantir Soars 500% In A Year While UnitedHealth Tanks 40% — Tech Leaves Healthcare In The Dust</a>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">SPY Has A Classic Bullish Setup</h2>
Technically, SPY is lighting up every bullish signal on the board. At $586.53, SPY trades well above its eight-day simple moving average (SMA) of $574.16, its 20-day SMA of $557.10, and its 50-day SMA of $553.63. Even the 200-day SMA at $574.12 trails the price &#8211; classic bullish setup.
Momentum-wise, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) sits at a strong 9.81, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) reads 65.95, just shy of overbought territory but still flashing strength.
For holders of SPY, IVV, and VOO, the message is clear: the market isn't just bouncing &#8211; it's sprinting. The comeback has put passive investors back in the green, with technicals suggesting the rally could have more room to run.
Just weeks ago, this market looked cornered. Now, it's rewriting the rebound playbook.
Read Next: 
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/regulations/25/05/45435170/jim-cramer-says-this-will-hurt-apple-president-trump-making-it-tough">Jim Cramer Says This &#8216;Will Hurt&#8217; Apple: &#8216;President Trump Making It Tough&#8230;</a></li>
</ul>
Image: Shutterstock

Analyst Color

Technicals

Analyst Ratings

Rout To Rally: S&P 500 Stages Fastest Flip In Market History With 22% Comeback

<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/s-p-500">The S&amp;P 500</a> is quietly pulling off a winning streak that even some bulls didn't see coming. For the second quarter in a row, the index has notched double-digit earnings growth &#8211; clocking in at 13.4% for the first quarter &#8211; leaving ETF investors in the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>), iShares Core S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IVV#NYSE">IVV</a>) and Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VOO#NYSE">VOO</a>) with something to cheer about.
According <a href="https://insight.factset.com/sp-500-earnings-season-update-may-9-2025?utm_source=Direct&amp;utm_medium=Email&amp;utm_campaign=FO-05-09-2025&amp;utm_content=httpsinsightfactsetcomsp500earningsseasonupdatemay92025">to</a> FactSet, 90% of S&amp;P 500 companies have reported results so far, and 78% of them beat earnings estimates &#8211; not only topping the 10-year average (75%) but also surpassing the five-year norm (77%). While the average earnings surprise of 8.5% came in just below the 5-year average (8.8%), it&#8217;s well ahead of the 10-year benchmark (6.9%).
Read Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/05/45294428/wall-street-rallies-after-us-seals-first-trade-deal-you-better-go-out-and-buy-stock-trump-says">Wall Street Rallies After US Seals First Trade Deal: &#8216;You Better Go Out And Buy Stock,&#8217; Trump Says</a>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">3 Sectors That Fueled Surprise Profits</h2>
This uptick didn't happen overnight. Since the end of the first quarter, earnings growth estimates have steadily climbed &#8211; from 7.1% on March 31 to 12.8% last week, now landing at a strong 13.4%. Much of the fuel came from surprise profits in Communication Services, Financials, and Health Care.
Eight out of eleven sectors are showing year-over-year earnings growth, with Health Care, Communications Services, Info Tech and Utilities leading the pack. Even more impressively, this is now the seventh straight quarter of earnings growth for the S&amp;P 500.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">62% S&amp;P 500 Companies Delivered Revenue Beats</h2>
The revenue side of the story is more muted &#8211; 62% of companies beat top-line expectations (below the 5-year average of 69%), with aggregate revenue surprises averaging just 0.7%. But that still translates to a 4.8% revenue growth rate &#8211; the 18th consecutive quarter of sales growth.
Looking ahead, analysts are expecting earnings growth to cool slightly, with forecasts of 5.2%, 7.4%, and 6.7% for the second through fourth quarter. But with a forward P/E of 20.5 (above the 5- and 10-year averages), markets are already pricing in strength &#8211; or at least resilience.
For ETF investors watching SPY, IVV, or VOO, the S&amp;P 500 just sent a second bullish signal in a row: earnings are holding up &#8211; and then some.
Read Next: 
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/regulations/25/05/45283497/federal-reserve-will-be-the-last-to-cut-says-expert-anticipating-4-cuts-in-2025-a-thaw-in-us-china-trade-dispute-is-good-news">Federal Reserve &#8216;Will Be The Last To Cut&#8217; Rates, Says Expert Who Still Expects Four Cuts In 2025</a></li>
</ul>
Photo: Shutterstock

S&P 500 Q1 Earnings Jump 13.4% - SPY Investors Just Got Their Second Straight Double-Digit Surprise

The <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/tariffs">90-day tariff pause</a> announced by President Donald Trump&#8216;s administration may offer temporary relief, but JPMorgan analyst Fabio Bassi warns that the macro backdrop remains fragile.
While countries that have not retaliated are spared for now, a 10% blanket tariff stays in place and tariffs on Chinese imports are jumping to 145%. That lifts the average U.S. tariff rate to around 30% &#8211; a significant economic headwind.
Bassi sees the recent move as a tactical timeout rather than a meaningful shift. Even under the unlikely scenario of China being removed entirely from the U.S. import equation, the average tariff rate would only fall back to the 10% level.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Pause, Not A Pivot As Recession Risk Looms</h2>
The size of the tariff-induced tax hike &#8211; estimated at over 3% of GDP &#8211; keeps recession fears alive. Bassi maintains a 60% probability of a U.S. and global recession. His 40% non-recession case hinges on a reversal of the China tariff escalation and a halt to further trade tensions elsewhere.
With sentiment weak and data mixed, macro headlines are set to dominate again. The so-called "Trump put," Bassi notes, was triggered by both a sharp equity selloff and a dysfunctional Treasury market, pushing the administration to ease up.
Read Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/management/25/04/44774273/jpmorgan-ceo-jamie-dimon-expects-sp-500-growth-forecast-to-be-cut">JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon Expects S&amp;P 500 Growth Forecast To Be Cut</a>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">S&amp;P 500 Faces Binary Path</h2>
JPMorgan has trimmed its S&amp;P 500 year-end target to 5,200, but Bassi lays out a nearly binary risk-reward path. A drawn-out trade war could drag the index toward 4,000, while a meaningful trade breakthrough &#8211; with Europe, Japan and a softened stance on China &#8211; could launch a rally toward 5,800.
Investors in the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>), the iShares Core S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IVV#NYSE">IVV</a>) and the Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VOO#NYSE">VOO</a>) should remain wary of their holdings.
In the meantime, he expects markets to remain range-bound, with any short-term bounce vulnerable to fading if not backed by real policy clarity or Fed support.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Global Hedges: China Tech, India In Focus</h2>
As U.S. risks mount, Bassi highlights select opportunities abroad. China tech remains investable, especially given the likelihood of aggressive policy support from Beijing. ETFs like the KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/KWEB#NYSE">KWEB</a>) and iShares MSCI China ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MCHI#NYSE">MCHI</a>) offer exposure to that rebound theme.
India also gets a bullish nod, with potential policy tailwinds making it a compelling risk-on trade. U.S. investors may want to keep an eye on the iShares MSCI India ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/INDA#NYSE">INDA</a>) as a way to diversify away from the choppy U.S. outlook.
Bassi's view is clear: the tariff pause is not a pivot. With macro risks still elevated and the market vulnerable, investors may want to hedge through global plays rather than rush back into the U.S. exceptionalism trade.
Read Next: 
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/regulations/25/04/44748635/stocks-bounce-off-session-lows-after-trump-says-china-deal-is-going-to-work-out">China Deal Is &#8216;Going To Work Out,&#8217; Trump Says As Stocks Bounce From Session Lows</a></li>
</ul>
Photo: Shutterstock

Asia

Emerging Market ETFs

Markets

INDA

KWEB

MCHI

S&P 500 Could Tank To 4,000 If 'Trump Put' Fizzles, Says JPMorgan

President Donald Trump's tariffs against America's trading partners and the subsequent retaliatory measures from China and Europe resulted in major losses for investors across the globe, with no end to volatility in sight. Trade tensions may ease amid expected deals between key countries, but prudent investors are rethinking their long-term strategies.
Dividend stocks have gained significance in this period of market turbulence because of their strong history. A March <a href="https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/research/research-sp500-dividend-aristocrats.pdf">report</a> from S&amp;P Global showed that dividends have accounted for about 31% of the total S&amp;P 500 returns since 1926.
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A few weeks ago, a dividend investor<a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/dividends/comments/1jic07f/retired_in_2021/"> shared</a> his income report and portfolio details on r/Dividends — a Reddit community with over 700,000 followers. The portfolio screenshots shared by the investor showed he was making about $9,250 per month, or $111,100 annually, in dividends. His total portfolio yield was about 2.3%.&nbsp;
"Dividends and interest cover 60% of expenses. Decent growth without huge volatility," he said.
The investor, 58, said he was a software engineer in Silicon Valley and retired in 2021. He said his goal is to cover his expenses of $15,000 per month with dividends by 2030.&nbsp;
"YOLO'd tech stocks in my IRA," the investor said, referring to the social media slang for taking a bold, high-risk approach.
Trending: Hasbro, MGM, and Skechers trust this AI marketing firm — <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/money/rad-intel">invest pre-IPO from $0.55 per share now</a>.
Let's take a look at some of the key holdings in the investor's portfolio.
iShares Short Treasury Bond ETF&nbsp;
The iShares Short Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SHV#NASDAQ">SHV</a>) gives investors exposure to US Treasury bonds with remaining maturities of one year or less. SHV is suitable for investors looking for low-risk funds to preserve capital and earn income.&nbsp; The investor said SHV accounted for about 5% of his total portfolio.
iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF
iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AGG#NYSE">AGG</a>) was another key bond ETF in the investor's portfolio.&nbsp; The fund tracks an index composed of investment-grade US bonds.
See Also: BlackRock is calling 2025 the year of alternative assets. <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/money/masterworks">One firm from NYC has quietly built a group of 60,000+ investors who have all joined in on an alt asset class previously exclusive to billionaires like Bezos and Gates.</a>
&nbsp;Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF
The investor earning about $9,000 in monthly dividends had Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SCHD#NYSE">SCHD</a>) in his portfolio. Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF tracks the Dow Jones U.S. Dividend 100 Index and provides exposure to some of the top dividend stocks trading in the U.S., including Verizon (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VZ#NYSE">VZ</a>), Coca-Cola (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/KO#NYSE">KO</a>), ConocoPhillips (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/COP#NYSE">COP</a>), Lockheed Martin (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/LMT#NYSE">LMT</a>), PepsiCo (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PEP#NASDAQ">PEP</a>) and Chevron (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CVX#NYSE">CVX</a>).&nbsp;
iShares Core S&amp;P 500 ETF
The investor making $9,000 a month in dividends said about 60% of his portfolio was allocated to the iShares Core S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IVV#NYSE">IVV</a>). The fund tracks the S&amp;P 500 Index and yields about 1.2%. It provides investors exposure to some of the biggest companies in the world, including Nvidia (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>), Microsoft (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>), Apple (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>), Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>), Amazon (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>) and Alphabet (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>, GOOGL)), among others.
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Personal Finance

AAPL

MSFT

SCHD

Software Engineer Making $9,000 a Month in Dividends Shares Portfolio, Says He 'YOLO'd Tech Stocks in IRA'

Editor's Note: This article has been updated to reflect that the fund formerly known as the Invesco Defensive Equity ETF is now the Invesco Bloomberg Pricing Power ETF.
The S&amp;P 500's fireworks this week may have lit up Wall Street, <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/jeremy-siegel">but Jeremy Siegel</a> isn't buying into the revelry just yet.
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Pause Doesn&#8217;t Equal Peace: Trump's Tariff Timeout Isn't The Endgame</h1>
Despite a 9.5% one-day rally that put the index in rarefied post-World War II territory, Siegel <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/10/jeremy-siegel-says-stocks-are-not-out-of-the-woods-yet-due-to-difficult-china-negotiations-ahead.html">told</a> CNBC's Squawk Box that investors celebrating a tariff truce may be getting ahead of themselves. "We're not out of the woods," the WisdomTree chief economist warned, pointing to the looming uncertainty in U.S.-China trade negotiations.
President Donald Trump's 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs sparked the market&#8217;s surge, but with the 10% tariff now permanent and China countering with 84% on U.S. goods, this is hardly a peace treaty. 
According to Siegel, investor sentiment remains shaky, still reeling from the initial tariff shock. That means the S&amp;P 500, down 11% from its highs and still negative for April, may struggle to reclaim its February peak anytime soon.
Read Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/regulations/25/04/44730455/bearish-sentiment-hits-7-week-high-mimicking-35-year-old-record-which-marked-the-bottom-of-the-october-1990-bear-market">Bearish Sentiment Hits 7-Week High, Mimicking 35-Year Old Record Which Marked The Bottom Of The October 1990 Bear Market</a>
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Next Stop: July 9 and More Trade Turbulence</h1>
The market's next inflection point? Likely July 9, when the next tariff round could escalate tensions further.
For investors riding the broader index rebound, ETFs like the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>), iShares Core S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IVV#NYSE">IVV</a>) and Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VOO#NYSE">VOO</a>) have all surged — but Siegel suggests caution.
For investors looking to play defense, sector ETFs like the Invesco Bloomberg Pricing Power ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/POWA#NYSE">POWA</a>) or the Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLU#NYSE">XLU</a>) may offer some shelter.
On the flip side, those still leaning into the rebound could watch the iShares U.S. Technology ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IYW#NYSE">IYW</a>) as tech has led past snapbacks, but remains exposed to global trade flows.
This isn't an "all clear" for risk-on strategies. Bulls may want to wait for more than just headlines before charging back in.
Read Next: 
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/04/44734009/tech-sector-heading-into-a-period-of-mass-uncertainty-amid-tariffs-and-upcoming-earnings-season-says-dan-ives-the-damage-is-real">Tech Sector Entering A Period Of &#8216;Mass Uncertainty&#8217; Amid Tariffs And Upcoming Earnings Season, Says Dan Ives: &#8216;The Damage Is Real&#8217;</a></li>
</ul>
Photo: <a href="https://www.shutterstock.com/g/zimmytws">zimmytws</a> via Shutterstock

Macro Economic Events

Sector ETFs

Economics

iShares Dow Jones US Technology Sector Index Fund

POWA

TSX:DEF

Jeremy Siegel Sounds The Tariff Alarm: Bulls May Want To Be Cautious (UPDATED)

Ray Dalio may no longer be steering the investment ship at Bridgewater Associates, but his recent warning on X has left little doubt about <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/ray-dalio">where he thinks</a> the world is headed. 
"We're witnessing a classic breakdown of the major monetary, political, and geopolitical orders," Dalio wrote, calling it a "once in a lifetime" phenomenon, the kind that "has happened many times in history, when similarly unsustainable conditions were in place."
<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"> 
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">At the moment, a huge amount of attention is rightly being paid to the newly announced tariffs and their significant impacts on markets and economies. But very little attention is being paid to the circumstances that caused them—and to the even bigger disruptions likely still… <a href="https://t.co/wPIgzDscbk">https://t.co/wPIgzDscbk</a>
&mdash; Ray Dalio (@RayDalio) <a href="https://twitter.com/RayDalio/status/1909296359955460347?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 7, 2025</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></div>
</figure>
The spark? Tariffs. But the fire, Dalio says, runs deeper.
&#8220;These tariff announcements are important developments. But most people are overlooking the much larger forces that are driving just about everything," Dalio said.
While he's not actively managing the fund, Bridgewater's latest 13F filing offers a glimpse into how the firm is positioning itself in the face of this macro upheaval.
Read Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/regulations/25/04/44707736/expert-warns-of-perfect-storm-as-trump-tariffs-slam-global-stock-markets-advises-investors-to-seek-safety-in-gold-and-fixed-income-instruments">Expert Warns Of &#8216;Perfect Storm&#8217; As Trump Tariffs Slam Global Stock Markets — Advises Investors To Seek Safety In Gold And Fixed-Income Instruments</a>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Tariffs, Turmoil And A Bet On The Index</h2>
Despite Dalio's big-picture warning, Bridgewater's top holding as of the fourth quarter of 2024 was the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>)—now a whopping 22.1% of the portfolio. Add iShares Core S&amp;P 500 (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IVV#NYSE">IVV</a>) and iShares Emerging Markets (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IEMG#NYSE">IEMG</a>) and nearly half the firm's equity book is riding broad indices.
That's a defensive play wrapped in passive exposure, especially as markets wobble under new trade war concerns.
The fund didn't stop there. Among its top new buys were AT&amp;T Inc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/T#NYSE">T</a>), eBay Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EBAY#NASDAQ">EBAY</a>) and PayPal Holdings Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PYPL#NASDAQ">PYPL</a>) &#8211; low-multiple names that look like classic recession hedges.
Applovin Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/APP#NASDAQ">APP</a>) also made the list, a curious pick that may reflect a contrarian bet on adtech amid volatility.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">From Tech Titans To Utility Muscle</h2>
Bridgewater has trimmed back tech allocations to the sector, which fell from 19.8% to 16.3% quarter over quarter. Still, it holds heavyweights like Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOGL#NASDAQ">GOOGL</a>) (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>), Nvidia Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>) and Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>), albeit at lower portfolio weights than before.
Meanwhile, two quiet climbers in the portfolio are worth noting: Constellation Energy Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CEG#NASDAQ">CEG</a>) and Vistra Corp (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VST#NYSE">VST</a>), both utility players sitting comfortably in the top 10 holdings. In a world Dalio sees veering toward chaos, old-school stability may be back in fashion.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Macro Chaos, Micro Calculations</h2>
Dalio's post paints a stark picture of structural breakdown—"unsustainable conditions" colliding with a new era of tariffs and geopolitical chess. While Bridgewater's allocations don't scream panic, the tilt toward broad ETFs, dividend-value names and utilities suggests the firm is bracing for bumps ahead.
Whether or not the VUCA (Volatile, Uncertain, Complex, Ambiguous) world Dalio describes becomes a reality, Bridgewater seems to be preparing for the long game &#8211; passive on the surface but deeply macro-aware under the hood.
Read Next: 
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/social-media/25/04/44705344/ray-dalio-says-dont-make-the-mistake-of-thinking-whats-happening-now-is-due-to-trump-tariffs">Ray Dalio Says Don&#8217;t Make The Mistake Of Thinking What&#8217;s Happening Now Is Due To Trump Tariffs</a></li>
</ul>
Photo: Shutterstock

EBAY

PYPL

Here's Where Bridgewater Is Placing Its Bets As Ray Dalio Warns Of 'Once-In-A-Lifetime' Breakdown

Wall Street just got a wake-up call. According to JPMorgan analyst Maia G. Crook, the probability of <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/recession">a U.S. recession</a> has surged to 60%, up from 40% last month, thanks to the latest round of tariff hikes.
The "largest U.S. tax hike in nearly 60 years" is expected to hit household and business spending, drag down sentiment and disrupt global supply chains.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Tariffs &amp; Tumbling Sentiment</h2>
The tariff war escalated with a fresh 22% hike, pushing fears of retaliation and economic slowdowns to new highs. Crook warns of ripple effects, noting that the uncertainty around trade policies could further dampen business confidence. 
While there's still a 40% chance of avoiding a recession, she cautions that it hinges on "negotiations&#8221; that &#8220;will bring these announced rates down in the coming weeks."
Read Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/03/44456554/trade-wars-fed-moves-and-a-40-recession-risk-is-your-portfolio-ready">Trade Wars, Fed Moves And A 40% Recession Risk &#8211; Is Your Portfolio Ready?</a>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Markets On Edge: Where To Look Next?</h2>
With recession risk on the rise, broad market exchange-traded funds (ETFs) like SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>), the iShares Core S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IVV#NYSE">IVV</a>) and the Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VOO#NYSE">VOO</a>) are under scrutiny.
Investors may look to defensive plays like utilities and consumer staples ETFs, such as the Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLU#NYSE">XLU</a>) or Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLP#NYSE">XLP</a>) as <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/04/44626085/biopharma-a-safe-haven-as-tariff-turmoil-rages-on">safe havens</a>.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Will The Fed Step In?</h2>
Despite the ominous outlook, Crook sees a path to resilience if global negotiations ease tensions. However, she warns that the administration's approach to tariff calculations "raises questions around the basis for negotiations going forward."
With economic uncertainty mounting, investors may need to brace for volatility ahead.
For now, markets are on edge and recession risk is no longer a distant possibility &#8211; it's a very real threat.
Read Next: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/03/44309742/recession-watch-small-caps-sound-the-alarm-but-credit-markets-shrug">Recession Watch: Small Caps Sound The Alarm, But Credit Markets Shrug</a></li>
</ul>
Photo: Shutterstock

Federal Reserve

JPMorgan Raises Recession Risk To 60% As 'Largest US Tax Hike' In 60 Years Hits Global Economy

March saw gold post a historic outperformance over U.S. equities, with the bullion on track to beat the S&amp;P 500 by its biggest margin in 13 years. Mounting concerns about trade tariffs, economic growth, and geopolitical instability drove the <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/gold">rotation into haven assets.</a>
Gold prices soared 9% in March, delivering their strongest monthly gain since July 2020, as the metal repeatedly notched fresh all-time highs throughout the month.
In contrast, the S&amp;P 500 tumbled 7.6%, creating a nearly 18-percentage-point performance gap—the widest monthly outperformance for gold over U.S. equities since August 2011. 
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Chart: Gold Notches Strongest 1-Month Leap Against S&amp;P 500</h2>
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="529" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/31095632/GLD_SPY_2025-03-31_14-56-17_eaf40-1024x529.png" alt="" class="wp-image-849317" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/31095632/GLD_SPY_2025-03-31_14-56-17_eaf40-1024x529.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/31095632/GLD_SPY_2025-03-31_14-56-17_eaf40-300x155.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/31095632/GLD_SPY_2025-03-31_14-56-17_eaf40-768x396.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/31095632/GLD_SPY_2025-03-31_14-56-17_eaf40-1536x793.png 1536w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/31095632/GLD_SPY_2025-03-31_14-56-17_eaf40.png 1920w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
Investor appetite has mirrored the price action. The SPDR Gold Shares ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>) saw inflows of $2.8 billion in March, building on February's $4 billion intake. 
Meanwhile, the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) witnessed a massive $18 billion in outflows—the heaviest drawdown since January 2024. However, while SPY bled capital, other S&amp;P 500 ETFs like the Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VOO#NYSE">VOO</a>) and iShares Core S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IVV#NYSE">IVV</a>) pulled in $6 billion and $21.6 billion, respectively.
"Investors have been adding gold to their portfolios to diversify, having shunned the precious metal in favor of tech stocks for many years," David Morrison, analyst at Trade Nation, said.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Is This The Start Of A Gold Supercycle?</h3>
While the rally may seem steep, some believe it's far from over. 
Veteran Wall Street investor Ed Yardeni, founder of Yardeni Research, has been bullish on gold since mid-2024 and sees the metal hitting $4,000 by the end of this year and $5,000 in 2026.
Goldman Sachs analyst Daan Struyven presented a scenario where gold could skyrocket even further.
In what the bank terms &#8220;tail-risk&#8221;—such as rising concerns about the Federal Reserve's political independence or questions around the U.S. dollar's reserve currency status—central banks could increase gold purchases to 110 tonnes per month. 
That type of demand pressure could drive up gold to $4,200 or even $4,500. 
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Q2 Outlook: What Seasonality, Technicals Tell Us</h3>
Looking ahead, the seasonality of gold provides a mixed picture. 
Paul Ciana, a technical strategist at Bank of America, said that since 1975, gold has tended to trend flat in the second quarter. But over the past 10 years, Q2 has typically delivered a 3% gain from late April to late May, with the strongest week being April 4–11, during which gold has risen 0.9% on average.
Interestingly, an up March has often preceded a down June, with this sequence occurring 71% of the time. 
On equities, seasonal trends offer some hope. The S&amp;P 500 Index tends to post gains in the second quarter, averaging 2% into mid-June and 1% by quarter-end. April is often weak, but May brings recovery. 
From a technical perspective, Morrison also observed that gold is not as overbought now as it was six weeks ago, helping to ease concerns about a correction. 
"So far, profit-taking has led to shallow dips which have been met with fresh buying," he said. "But this only increases the probability that there will be a bigger pullback at some stage."
Read Now: 
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/03/44560485/goldman-sachs-slashes-sp-500-price-outlook-as-tariffs-weaker-growth-hit-earnings">Goldman Sachs Slashes S&amp;P 500 Price Outlook As Tariffs, Weaker Growth Hit Earnings</a></li>
</ul>
 Image: Shutterstock

Equities

Commodities

Econ #s

Gold Beats S&P 500 By Widest Margin Since 2011 As Tariff Fears Trigger Rush To Havens

Wall Street stumbled Friday as investors hustled to reevaluate their expectations with a hotter-than-anticipated inflation report and growing worries about imminent trade tariffs. <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs">ETFs tracking the broad indexes</a> S&amp;P500 and Nasdaq 100, like SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>), The iShares Core S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IVV#NYSE">IVV</a>) and the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>), suffered losses as traders processed the most recent inflation reading and an alarming consumer sentiment report.
Inflation Halts Advancements Toward Rate Reduction
The Fed&#8217;s favored measure of inflation, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price gauge, <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/03/44535109/feds-favorite-inflation-gauge-rises-more-than-expected-in-february-casting-doubt-on-near-term-rate-cuts">rose 2.5% from the prior year, as expected</a>. Yet the core PCE that is watched most closely, adjusting for fidgety food and energy prices, gained 2.8%, beating expectations of 2.7% and its hottest level in more than a year.
LPL Financial chief economist Jeffrey Roach added that the increase in the core PCE print highlights <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/03/44542821/inflation-will-accelerate-in-coming-months-if-april-2-tariffs-take-effect-economist-warns">lingering inflationary pressure</a>. He cited the rising savings rate, which hit 4.6%, as a sign that consumers are increasingly conservative about the outlook of the economy.
Comerica Bank&#8217;s chief economist, Bill Adams, seconded these fears, calling for a deceleration in consumer spending to weigh on real GDP growth in the first quarter of 2025. 
Also Read:<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/03/44545009/big-moves-at-intelthese-3-etfs-stand-to-benefit"> Big Moves At Intel: These 3 ETFs Stand To Benefit</a>
Market Sell-Off: SPY, IVV And QQQ Take The Brunt
The <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/inflation">latest inflation figures</a> fueled a widespread sell-off on Wall Street on Friday, as all three major indexes lost heavily. S&amp;P 500 lost 2%, with the Nasdaq 100 losing 2.6%. Consequently, the SPY, an ETF that follows the S&amp;P 500, lost 2%, with QQQ, which follows the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100, losing 2.6% on Friday. IVV, another major ETF tracking the S&amp;P 500, also slumped 2%.
Tech stocks were hammered, with all of the <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/03/44542620/inflation-fears-spark-risk-off-sentiment-as-magnificent-7-drop-whats-driving-markets-friday">Magnificent Seven trading in the red</a>. Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>) and Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOGL#NASDAQ">GOOGL</a>) led the decline, dropping 4.3% and 4.9%, respectively. Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>), one of the highest holdings in SPY, wiped out its previous day&#8217;s gain, falling 3.4%.
Outlook: Volatility On The Horizon For SPY And QQQ
As inflation remained stickier than expected and the Federal Reserve increasingly under pressure to maintain higher rates, volatility in SPY and QQQ can be expected to continue. The slowdown in consumer spending, coupled with higher inflation and trade uncertainties, has created a vulnerable setup for the equity markets.
Though steady real disposable income growth could be a short-term buffer, as analyst Roach cautioned, any deceleration in pay growth would present an even bigger threat to the overall economy. Investors now look to the Federal Reserve&#8217;s next steps and the next steps in tariffs for more guidance in this uncharted economic climate.
Read Next: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs/sector-etfs/25/03/44544012/auto-etfs-tumble-after-trumps-25-import-tariff-move-on-vehicles-made-overseas">Auto ETFs Tumble After Trump&#8217;s 25% Import Tariff Move On Vehicles Made Overseas</a></li>
</ul>
Photo: Shutterstock

Sticky Inflation Weighs On Markets — SPY, QQQ, Tech Stocks Take A Hit

The SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) has long been the go-to choice for investors wanting broad exposure to <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs">the U.S. stock market</a>. 
But as markets gyrate with fresh economic and geopolitical developments, and <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/etf">alternative ETFs gain traction</a>, is SPY still the best bet for your portfolio? Let's break it down.
SPY — a passively managed ETF that aims to mirror the performance of the S&amp;P 500 Index — boasts a massive asset base of over $619.47 billion. That makes it the largest ETF of its kind.
Large-cap companies are those with market capitalizations above $10 billion. They tend to be stable and generate consistent cash flows. This makes SPY a relatively less risky investment than mid- or small-cap ETFs. 
As a blend ETF, it holds a mix of growth and value stocks, making it a balanced choice for investors looking for diversification.
Also Read: <a href="https://in.benzinga.com/25/03/44074852/sp-500-correction-overdue-will-the-markets-sideways-dance-turn-into-a-tumble-focus-on-balance-and-diversification-recommends-analyst">S&amp;P 500 Correction &#8216;Overdue:&#8217; Will The Market&#8217;s &#8216;Sideways&#8217; Movement Turn Into A Tumble? &#8216;Focus On Balance And Diversification,&#8217; Says Analyst</a>
SPY&#8217;s underlying index, the S&amp;P 500, is composed of the largest publicly traded U.S. companies. It spans 25-plus industries.
So far in 2025, SPY is down 1.04%, but it has gained 13.5% over the past year, as of March 6, 10.38 a.m. EST.
In terms of risk, SPY has a beta of 1, making it a medium-risk investment whose performance is at par with broader market movements.
SPY has its largest exposure to the Information Technology sector, which makes up around 30.10% of the portfolio. Financials and Healthcare are the next two largest sectors.
The fund&#8217;s top 10 holdings account for about 36% of total assets. Therefore, a significant portion of its performance is tied to these top holdings: Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>), 7.18%; Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>), 6.01%; and Nvidia Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>), 5.8%.
Also Read: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs/broad-u-s-equity-etfs/25/01/43354861/vanguards-voo-set-to-overtake-spy-as-worlds-largest-etf-after-record-january-inflows">Vanguard&#8217;s VOO Set To Overtake SPY As World&#8217;s Largest ETF After Record January Inflows</a>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">SPY's Challenged Leadership</h2>
After holding the title of the world's largest ETF for 32 years, SPY briefly lost its crown mid-February to the Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VOO#NYSE">VOO</a>), according to ETF.com. While SPY has since reclaimed the top spot, analysts believe it may not hold onto it for much longer, given the growing momentum in other ETFs. Back in 2011, the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>) momentarily surpassed SPY. However, a better comparison with SPY will be VOO as it offers identical exposure to SPY but at a much lower cost, giving it a major competitive edge.
Some experts even suggest SPY could fall to third place behind iShares Core S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IVV#NYSE">IVV</a>) later this year if trends persist, according to a report by ETF.com.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Why Costs Matter</h2>
When choosing an ETF, cost is a crucial factor. The good news? SPY is an affordable option, with an annual expense ratio of just 0.09%. Over the long run, lower fees can make a big difference in your overall returns. The fund also offers a trailing 12-month dividend yield of 1.22%, adding a layer of income potential for investors. However, VOO and IVV both offer a similar strategy at a much lower expense ratio of 0.03%, which are driving some investors to them. 
SPY has dominated the ETF market for decades, and its size and liquidity make it hard to ignore. But as investors become more cost-conscious, rivals like IVV and VOO are giving it stiff competition. If you prioritize liquidity and ease of trading, SPY remains a solid choice. However, if you&#8217;re focused on minimizing expenses, you might want to explore alternatives.
Read Next: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs/broad-u-s-equity-etfs/25/03/44165367/how-to-ride-out-market-turbulence-with-these-5-low-beta-etfs">How To Ride Out Market Turbulence With These 5 Low-Beta ETFs</a></li>
</ul>
Image: Shutterstock

SPY ETF Has Ruled For Decades, But Is It Still The Best Bet?

The stock market just got a fresh jolt of turbulence, and traders are buckling up for more. Monday's rollercoaster session saw the S&amp;P 500 index wipe out a staggering $1.5 trillion in value as trade war fears reignited. 
ETFs tracking the index closed lower: the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) closed lower by 1.75% while the Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VOO#NYSE">VOO</a>) and the iShares Core S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IVV#NYSE">IVV</a>) were down 1.72% on Monday close.
Related: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/social-media/25/03/44098232/markets-tank-after-trump-confirms-more-tariffs-heres-what-wall-street-is-saying">Markets Tank After Trump Confirms More Tariffs: Here&#8217;s What Wall Street Is Saying</a>
With tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China ramping up, volatility is officially back in business. The VIX has surged over 33% over the past month:
<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="696" height="449" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/04062926/Screenshot-2025-03-04-at-4.59.09-PM.png" alt="" class="wp-image-807881" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/04062926/Screenshot-2025-03-04-at-4.59.09-PM.png 696w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/04062926/Screenshot-2025-03-04-at-4.59.09-PM-300x194.png 300w" sizes="(max-width: 696px) 100vw, 696px" /></figure>
Chart source: <a href="https://www.google.com/finance/quote/VIX:INDEXCBOE?sa=X&amp;ved=2ahUKEwiiwuP0qPCLAxV0Q2cHHSTZBhcQ3ecFegQIMhAX&amp;window=1M">Google Finance</a>
But for investors, chaos breeds opportunity &#8211; if you know how to play it.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">1. The VIX Is Screaming &#8211; Use It</h2>
The Cboe Volatility Index ($VIX) is Wall Street's fear gauge, and when it spikes, traders take notice. With uncertainty surging, options-based strategies become lucrative. 
Investors can hedge against further market swings with the ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (BATS:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UVXY#BATS">UVXY</a>) or the iPath Series B S&amp;P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (BATS:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VXX#BATS">VXX</a>). 
But beware—these are short-term tools, not long-term holds.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">2. Play Defense With Broad Market ETFs</h2>
When markets get rocky, smart money often rotates into low-volatility and defensive plays. 
The Invesco S&amp;P 500 Low Volatility ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPLV#NYSE">SPLV</a>) offers exposure to less turbulent stocks, while the iShares MSCI USA Minimum Volatility ETF (BATS:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USMV#BATS">USMV</a>) helps cushion the downside. 
For those who expect more fireworks but want to stay long equities, the SPY remains a solid way to ride out the storm.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">3. Don't Fight The Tape &#8211; Trade Trends</h2>
With uncertainty swirling, trend-following strategies gain an edge. Investors looking for short-term gains might consider the ProShares Short S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SH#NYSE">SH</a>) for bearish exposure or the ProShares UltraPro Short S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPXU#NYSE">SPXU</a>) for amplified downside bets. 
Meanwhile, gold, often a safe-haven asset, is seeing renewed interest through ETFs like SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).
With Trump hinting at more "big" announcements by Wednesday night, expect the volatility train to keep rolling. The question isn't whether markets will move &#8211; it's whether you're ready to trade the storm.
Read Next: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/bonds/25/03/44096578/leon-cooperman-says-he-likes-cash-calls-trumps-deficit-cutting-contractionary">Leon Cooperman Says He Likes Cash, Calls Trump&#8217;s Deficit Cutting &#8216;Contractionary&#8217;</a></li>
</ul>
Image via Shutterstock

Specialty ETFs

PowerShares S&P 500 Low Volatility Portfolio

SPLV

SPXU

USMV

UVXY

Barclays Bank iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN

Tariffs, Trump, Tumult: How To Trade The Volatility Surge

ETFs are having a moment. According to a recent EY report, <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs">global ETF assets</a> under management (AUM) surged to $14.8 trillion last year, with net inflows hitting $1.88 trillion, the highest ever recorded. The U.S. market alone crossed the $10 trillion mark.
Continuing the stroke of fortune, January 2025 brought in an all-time high of $90.3 billion in net ETF <a href="https://etfgi.com/news/press-releases/2025/02/etfgi-reports-assets-invested-etfs-industry-united-states-reached-new">inflows </a>in the U.S. alone, according to research firm ETFGI. So, what's driving this boom?
Also Read: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs/broad-u-s-equity-etfs/25/02/43605412/as-trade-war-heats-up-these-etfs-offer-a-safe-harbor-for-investors">As Trade War Heats Up, These ETFs Offer A Safe Harbor For Investors</a>
The Tax Advantage 
A major reason ETFs are so popular in the U.S. is their tax efficiency. Nithin Kamath, CEO of Indian online brokerage platform Zerodha, recently pointed this out in a <a href="https://x.com/Nithin0dha/status/1892493951434969111">post </a>on X. He explained that mutual funds in the U.S. are required to distribute capital gains to investors, making them less tax-efficient. In contrast, ETFs use an ‘in-kind' creation/redemption process, which helps them avoid capital gains distributions, giving investors a clear tax advantage.
This tax efficiency is one of the most underrated reasons why ETFs have taken off in the U.S.
Big Money Is Flowing Into ETFs
Investors are pouring money into ETFs despite broader market volatility. Take what happened on February 24, even as markets declined, ETFs saw massive inflows. According to etf.com, SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) raked in $3.87 billion, iShares Core S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IVV#NYSE">IVV</a>) pulled in $1.02 billion, Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VOO#NYSE">VOO</a>) saw $883.6 million inflow and iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IEMG#NYSE">IEMG</a>) brought $365.6 million.
Overall, U.S. equity funds led the way with $3.59 billion in inflows, followed by fixed income ETFs with $1.78 billion and commodities ETFs adding $754.2 million, reported etf.com.
Innovation Is Key
Beyond tax advantages, the ETF industry is constantly evolving, offering investors a growing variety of options:
Active ETFs are on the rise, now accounting for 8% of U.S. ETF assets and attracting nearly half of all U.S. ETF inflows, per EY. According to Morningstar, U.S.-listed active ETFs attracting a record $43 billion in inflows in January. This growth follows 579 active ETF launches on Wall Street in 2024, according to Morningstar.
Single-stock ETFs, which allow investors to take leveraged bets on individual stocks, have grown to $7 billion in assets, said EY.
The outlet also reported that buffer ETFs, offering downside protection, now hold $45 billion, while digital asset ETFs, especially Bitcoin ETFs, have soared in popularity with the five largest products amassing $70 billion in AUM.
More Players Are Entering The ETF Space
As ETF assets continue to grow, more firms want a piece of the action. The EY report highlights that asset managers looking to enter the market typically take one of five routes — develop in-house ETF capabilities (best for large firms), acquire an existing ETF issuer, use white-label ETF providers to launch funds quickly, transform mutual funds into ETFs (57 mutual funds were converted to ETFs in 2024) and newer model in Europe where mutual funds offer ETF-like share classes.
The Road Ahead
With all these trends in motion, the global ETF industry is on track to hit $25 trillion in AUM by 2030, according to EY. 
Between tax advantages, product innovation, and rising retail adoption, ETFs look good to continue their unstoppable growth in the years ahead.
If the past year is anything to go by, the ETF revolution is far from over.
Read Next: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs/specialty-etfs/25/02/43924482/exclusive-3-etfs-positioned-for-microsofts-quantum-breakthrough">EXCLUSIVE: 3 ETFs Positioned For Microsoft&#8217;s Quantum Breakthrough</a></li>
</ul>
Photo: Shutterstock

ETFs Are Booming, Here's Why

Did you know there's a way to predict the S&amp;P 500 with an ~85% correlation?
Sounds insane, but it's true.
Here's the surprising logic behind my claim:
<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="936" height="621" src="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/21144315/image-11.png" alt="" class="wp-image-6269" srcset="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/21144315/image-11.png 936w,https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/21144315/image-11-300x199.png 300w,https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/21144315/image-11-768x510.png 768w" sizes="(max-width: 936px) 100vw, 936px" /></figure>
When investors look for long-term bullish S&amp;P 500 signals, they look at:
U.S CPI
U.S. interest rates
U.S. M2 supply (relatively liquid assets in the U.S economy)
This is a mistake.
Although these metrics matter, there's something we commonly forget.
Unlike most countries, the U.S. stock market is global.
German citizens rarely invest in Japanese stocks.
But many will invest in Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, etc.
When central banks print money, it enters the economy of that respective country.
A portion of that money goes to citizens who buy food, shelter, clothing, etc.
However, some of them will invest their cash into assets.
A sizable portion specifically goes into the S&amp;P or S&amp;P-included companies.
That's why, if you're investing in the S&amp;P, you can't just focus on U.S. liquidity.
You need to focus on global liquidity instead.
The problem is global liquidity is hard to measure.
Combining M2 and interest rate data from the world's central banks isn't easy.
That's why financial data platforms like Ycharts and TradingView don't have a global liquidity metric.
This is why investors typically track GL from the 5 biggest central banks.
Specifically the:
Bank of Japan
Federal Reserve
Bank of England
European Central Bank
People's Bank of China
These are the most important central banks in the world, and tracking their efforts isn't difficult.
This is where most investors go wrong, when they exclusively track the Fed's monetary policies to predict the S&amp;P's long-term outlook.
But the S&amp;P receives inflows from across the globe.
That's why the decisions of the BoJ, BoE, ECB, and PBoC collectively matter more than the Federal Reserve alone.
Thanks to the U.S. stock market&#8217;s global status, global liquidity is highly correlated.
Popular U.S. stock indexes like the NASDAQ, for example, have a 95% correlation.
Whereas the S&amp;P has an ~85% correlation.
This chart speaks volumes.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="936" height="520" src="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/21144314/image-2.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-6268" srcset="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/21144314/image-2.jpeg 936w,https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/21144314/image-2-300x167.jpeg 300w,https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/21144314/image-2-768x427.jpeg 768w" sizes="(max-width: 936px) 100vw, 936px" /></figure>
However, during bull markets, global liquidity sometimes decouples from the S&amp;P.
Particularly when there's particularly bullish news and the market gets excited.
Trump's election victory was a great example of this.
Politics aside, Trump has always been bullish for stocks.
The same can be said about bearish black swan events.
2008, the initial COVID scare, Yen carry trade, Deepseek, etc.
Bullish and bearish signals decouple the market from global liquidity.
But it always realigns.
It's important to remember that there's a delay between global liquidity and the stock market.
It takes time for liquidity to flow into assets and inflate prices.
Liquidity → stocks – fewer shares → lower supply → prices rise
What's the moral of the story?
Don't just analyze U.S. monetary policies.
Monitor the policies of the biggest central banks in the world.
With a delay, you can reliably predict the movements of major U.S. indexes.
&#x2A;&#x2A;
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Large Cap

Exclusives

General

There's a way to predict the S&P 500 with an 85% correlation!

<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/george-soros">Billionaire investor George Soros</a> made some bold portfolio adjustments in the fourth quarter, signaling a shift toward growth while easing off defensive bets. 
Soros Fund Management's latest 13F filing shows fresh bets on Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOGL#NASDAQ">GOOGL</a>) and small-cap stocks, alongside a significant reduction in its SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) put position.
Meanwhile, the fund trimmed its stake in Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BABA#NYSE">BABA</a>) (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BABAF#NYSE">BABAF</a>) and fully exited Oracle Corp (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ORCL#NYSE">ORCL</a>), reflecting a shifting stance on Chinese tech.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Doubling Down On Alphabet, Small Caps</h2>
Alphabet emerged as one of Soros' biggest buys, with the fund increasing its stake by 2.55%. 
The firm also ramped up its exposure to the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IWM#NYSE">IWM</a>), a play on smaller, high-growth companies. 
This move suggests Soros is betting on a continued rebound in both mega-cap tech and smaller, more volatile stocks.
Read Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/25/02/43816112/hedge-fund-shake-up-tiger-appaloosa-soros-outperform-buffett-icahn-ackman">Hedge Fund Shake-Up: Tiger, Appaloosa, Soros Outperform Buffett, Icahn, Ackman</a>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Cutting Market Hedges, Adding Fixed Income</h2>
Soros Fund slashed its SPY put position by nearly 15%, signaling reduced bearish sentiment on the broader market. &#8216;
The fund also trimmed holdings in The Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLF#NYSE">XLF</a>) and iShares Core S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IVV#NYSE">IVV</a>), while increasing exposure to Ford Motor Co&#8216;s (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/F#NYSE">F</a>) debt and the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) calls — moves that hint at an evolving fixed-income strategy.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">China Exposure Shrinks As BABA Gets Trimmed</h2>
Alibaba stock took a hit in the fourth quarter as Soros scaled back his position, joining other investors in reassessing Chinese tech. 
Meanwhile, Smurfit WestRock PLC (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SW#NYSE">SW</a>) remained the fund's top holding at 5.71% of the portfolio, with Alphabet and AstraZeneca PLC (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AZN#NASDAQ">AZN</a>) rounding out the top three.
Soros' latest moves suggest a more optimistic take on U.S. growth stocks while pulling back on market hedges and Chinese tech bets.
Read Next: 
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/25/02/43811538/5-top-tech-stocks-hedge-funds-have-been-bullish-on-in-q4-hint-its-not-nvidia">5 Top Tech Stocks Hedge Funds Have Been Bullish On In Q4 (Hint: It&#8217;s Not Nvidia)</a></li>
</ul>
Image: Shutterstock

ORCL

iShares Trust Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund

George Soros Makes Fresh Bets On Alphabet, Small Caps: What About SPY Puts And Alibaba?

Following the recent comments from billionaire investor Ray Dalio on &#8220;expensive,&#8221; companies with high valuations, his fund Bridgewater Associates trimmed its positions in six of the &#8216;Magnificent 7&#8217; stocks during the fourth quarter, while taking a fresh position in Elon Musk-led Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).
What Happened: According to its 13-F filing with the U.S. Securities And Exchange Commission, the &#8216;Magnificent 7&#8217; stocks witnessed a double-digit cut in their positions at Bridgewater, except Tesla.
<ul>
<li>Decreasing about 40% of its existing holdings, Apple Inc.&#8216;s (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>) value in Bridgewater&#8217;s portfolio stood at the lowest among the &#8216;Magnificent 7&#8217; stocks at $154.559 million, as of Dec. 31, 2024.</li>
<li>Bridgewater held the most Class A Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOGL#NASDAQ">GOOGL</a>) shares in the said quarter among the &#8216;Magnificent 7,&#8217; trimming just 17% of its position from the third quarter, valued at $685.513 million.</li>
<li>Positions in Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>), Meta Platforms Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>), Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>), and Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>) were also slashed in double digits from the third to the fourth quarter.</li>
<li>However, Dalio&#8217;s fund added 153,589 shares of Tesla to its portfolio for the first time in three years after the fourth quarter of 2021. It was valued at $62.025 million.</li>
</ul>
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Company</td>
<td>Holdings (as of Sept. 30)</td>
<td>Holdings (as of Dec. 31)</td>
<td>Change (in %)</td>
<td>Value As Of Dec. 31</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOGL#NASDAQ">GOOGL</a>)</td>
<td>4,379,337</td>
<td>3,621,308</td>
<td>-17%</td>
<td>$685.513 million</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>)</td>
<td>4,754,271</td>
<td>3,497,362</td>
<td>-26%</td>
<td>$469.660 million</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Meta Platforms Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>)</td>
<td>802,202</td>
<td>621,088</td>
<td>-23%</td>
<td>$363.653 million</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>)</td>
<td>870,178</td>
<td>667,036</td>
<td>-23%</td>
<td>$281.155 million</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>)</td>
<td>1,411,643</td>
<td>919,786</td>
<td>-35%</td>
<td>$211.684 million</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>)</td>
<td>1,031,856</td>
<td>617,203</td>
<td>-40%</td>
<td>$154.559 million</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>)</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>153,589</td>
<td>0%</td>
<td>$62.025 million</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</figure>
See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/regulations/25/02/43431874/billionaire-ray-dalio-raises-valuation-concerns-as-deepseeks-new-model-hits-nvidia-stock-a-great-company-that-gets-expensive-is-much-worse-than-a-bad-company-thats-really-cheap">Billionaire Ray Dalio Raises Valuation Concerns As DeepSeek&#8217;s New Model Hits Nvidia Stock</a>
Why It Matters: Dalio, in a discussion with David Friedberg on the All-In Podcast, <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/regulations/25/02/43431874/billionaire-ray-dalio-raises-valuation-concerns-as-deepseeks-new-model-hits-nvidia-stock-a-great-company-that-gets-expensive-is-much-worse-than-a-bad-company-thats-really-cheap">cautioned against</a> solely focusing on &#8220;good&#8221; companies, following the tech stock rout after the popularity of Chinese AI firm DeepSeek. 
"A great company that gets expensive is much worse than a bad company that's really cheap," he warned. Dalio urged investors to prioritize value and consider pricing dynamics, especially in the current economic climate.
He expressed concerns about the &#8220;superscalars&#8221; like Nvidia, highlighting their potential risks. Instead, Dalio advised investors to prioritize productivity, innovation, and disruptive technologies, while carefully considering pricing and global economic trends. He emphasized investing in those developing and utilizing applications that drive positive change.
Despite the changes to &#8216;Magnificent 7&#8217; stocks, exchange-traded funds took the highest position in the value terms in Bridgewater&#8217;s portfolio. The fund held $4.824 billion and $1.2 billion in ETFs tracking the S&amp;P 500 index and $922.163 million in the ETF tracking the MSCI Emerging Markets index.
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>ETFs</td>
<td>Holdings (as of Sept. 30)</td>
<td>Holdings (as of Dec. 31)</td>
<td>Change (in %)</td>
<td>Value As Of Dec. 31</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>)</td>
<td>836,965</td>
<td>8,232,049</td>
<td>884%</td>
<td>$4.824 billion</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>iShares Core S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IVV#NYSE">IVV</a>)</td>
<td>2,222,834</td>
<td>2,039,343</td>
<td>-8%</td>
<td>$1.2 billion</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IEMG#NYSE">IEMG</a>)</td>
<td>17,779,378</td>
<td>17,659,209</td>
<td>-1%</td>
<td>$922.163 million</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</figure>
Read Next:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/02/43762156/will-markets-be-closed-for-presidents-day-heres-what-investors-should-know">Will Markets Be Closed For Presidents Day? Here&#8217;s What Investors Should Know</a></li>
</ul>
Photo courtesy: Shutterstock

Market Summary

Billionaire Ray Dalio's Bridgewater Trims Holdings In 6 Of 'Magnificent 7' Stocks Amid Valuation Concerns, Adds This Automotive Stock After 3 Years

On Wednesday, T-Mobile US, Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TMUS#NASDAQ">TMUS</a>) disclosed plans to raise 2.75 billion euros ($2.94 billion) by selling 3.150% Senior Notes due 2032, 3.500% Senior Notes due 2037, and 3.800% Senior Notes due 2045 under a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/pressreleases/25/02/b43480374/t-mobile-agrees-to-sell-2-75-billion-of-euro-denominated-senior-notes" rel="noreferrer noopener">secondary public offering</a>.
T-Mobile USA looks to utilize the offering proceeds for general corporate purposes, including share repurchases, dividends, and refinancing of existing indebtedness.
Last week, T-Mobile US reported <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/25/01/43300596/t-mobile-q4-earnings-beats-estimates-adds-1-9-million-postpaid-customers-targets-6-million-new-customers-in-2025" rel="noreferrer noopener">fourth-quarter revenue</a> of $21.87 billion (versus $20.48 billion Y/Y), topping the analyst estimate of $21.31 billion.
Also Read: <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/02/43475015/spotifys-strong-subscriber-growth-and-rising-margins-keep-analysts-bullish" rel="noreferrer noopener">Spotify Is Still One Of Top 4 Best Ideas For 2025: Analyst</a>
Earnings of $2.57 per share surpassed the&nbsp;consensus estimate of $2.26. However, T-Mobile US&#8217; adjusted free Cash flow of $4.1 billion declined by 5%.
After the quarterly print, at least nine Wall Street firms, including Wells Fargo, Scotiabank, JP Morgan, Benchmark, RBC Capital, BofA Securities, Oppenheimer, and Barclays, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/TMUS/analyst-ratings" rel="noreferrer noopener">raised their price forecast</a> on T-Mobile US.
Scotiabank&#8217;s Maher Yaghi expects <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/01/43342887/t-mobile-us-posts-strong-q4-with-subscriber-adds-beating-expectations-analysts-raise-forecasts-on-expectations-of-continued-momentum-in-2025" rel="noreferrer noopener">continued service revenue</a> growth in fiscal 2025, helping generate $17 billion—$17.6 billion in free cash flow. This is backed by growth potential in the suburban, rural, and enterprise mobile segments and additional market share gains in broadband.
Last December, KeyBanc&nbsp;analyst Brandon Nispel downgraded T-Mobile US&#8217;s rating, citing <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/24/12/42470137/t-mobiles-premium-valuation-prompts-downgrade-growth-projections-decelerate" rel="noreferrer noopener">the company&#8217;s acquisitions</a> in the Fiber business at significant multiples that have yet to be proven.
The S&amp;P Telecom Select Industry Index gained 41% in the last 12 months, topping the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&#8217;s over 22% gain.
Telecom companies are known for their cash flow generation, which goes towards paying dividends and buybacks, driving ROE. T-Mobile US currently pays a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/TMUS/dividends" rel="noreferrer noopener">quarterly dividend of</a> $3.52&nbsp;per year for a yield of&nbsp;1.48%.
Comcast Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CMCSA#NASDAQ">CMCSA</a>) raised its dividend&nbsp;by 6.5% Y/Y to $1.32 per share annually and approved a new <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/01/43335926/comcast-q4-earnings-beats-estimates-peacock-subscribers-surge-29-dividend-raised-15-billion-buyback-approved" rel="noreferrer noopener">share repurchase program</a> of $15 billion. AT&amp;T (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/T#NYSE">T</a>) plans to return $20 billion in dividends and $20 billion in <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/24/12/42291862/att-boosts-2024-guidance-targets-22-billion-annual-capital-investment-through-2027-more" rel="noreferrer noopener">repurchases from 2025-2027</a>.
T-Mobile&#8217;s US stock surged over 46% in the last 12 months. Investors can gain exposure to the stock via the iShares Core S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IVV#NYSE">IVV</a>) and the Vanguard Growth ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VUG#NYSE">VUG</a>).
Price Action:&nbsp;TMUS stock traded higher by 0.23% to $237.80 premarket at the last check on Wednesday.
Also Read:
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/02/43475080/paypal-beats-q4-estimates-as-transaction-margins-and-payment-volume-drive-growth-eyes-2025-growth-with-strong-tmd-eps-outlook-ahead-of-investor-day-analyst" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">PayPal Transaction Margins and Payment Volume Drive Growth, Eyes 2025 Growth With Strong TMD Ahead of Investor Day: Analyst</a></li>
</ul>
Photo by viewimage on Shutterstock

Financing

Offerings

CMCSA

TMUS

T-Mobile Raises $2.94 Billion To Fund Stock Buybacks, Dividends, and Debt Refinancing

A tectonic shift is underway in the global ETF rankings, as Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VOO#NYSE">VOO</a>) is on the verge of surpassing State Street's SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs">in assets under management. </a>
This unprecedented shift, which could materialize in the coming weeks, or even days, marks a pivotal moment in the trillion-dollar ETF industry.
VOO has recorded a staggering $20.5 billion in inflows month-to-date through Jan. 29, its largest single-month influx on record, according to data from ETFdb.com.
This surge in investor demand has extended VOO's streak of consecutive monthly inflows to 26, a rare feat that underscores growing confidence in the fund.
In stark contrast, VOO&#8217;s two main competitors have struggled to attract capital in January. 
SPY has suffered outflows of $10.68 billion, while BlackRock's iShares Core S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IVV#NYSE">IVV</a>) has lost $2.1 billion.
As a result, VOO's AUM has surged to $617 billion, closing in on SPY's $630 billion. If current trends persist, VOO could soon claim the title of the world's largest ETF.
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>ETF</th>
<th>January 2025 flows ($ bn)</th>
<th>AUM ($ bn)</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF </td>
<td>20.5</td>
<td>617.83</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust</td>
<td>-10.68</td>
<td>633.29</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>iShares Core S&amp;P 500 ETF</td>
<td>-2.09</td>
<td>599.57</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Data: ETFdb.com as of Jan. 29, 2025</figcaption></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Why Is VOO Better Than SPY? </h3>
A major factor driving VOO's ascent is its ultra-low expense ratio of 0.03%, which significantly undercuts SPY's 0.09%. 
Cost-conscious investors have increasingly favored the cheaper Vanguard offering, leading to a sustained capital migration.
Since VOO's inception in September 2010, its total return performance has narrowly outpaced both SPY and IVV. 
VOO has gained 446% over this period, compared to IVV's 443% and SPY's 442%, demonstrating a slight but decisive edge.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Chart: VOO Has Outperformed Key Competitors Since Its Inception</h4>
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="503" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/30154014/image-264-1024x503.png" alt="" class="wp-image-758975" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/30154014/image-264-1024x503.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/30154014/image-264-300x147.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/30154014/image-264-768x377.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/30154014/image-264-1536x754.png 1536w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/30154014/image-264.png 1920w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">VOO Topped ETF Flows Ranking Over The Last Year</h3>
Over the past year, VOO has led the ETF industry in net inflows, attracting an astonishing $127 billion, according to TradingView data. This figure surpasses IVV's inflows by a margin of $50 billion. 
Meanwhile, the third-highest inflows have been recorded by the iShares Bitcoin Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IBIT#NYSE">IBIT</a>) with $37.6 billion, followed by the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VTI#NYSE">VTI</a>) at $30.5 billion. 
Notably, SPY ranks only fifth, drawing in $30.2 billion, while the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>), the go-to vehicle for Nasdaq 100 exposure, stands in sixth place with $27.3 billion.
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>ETF</th>
<th>Flows (1Y)</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF</td>
<td>127.56</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>iShares Core S&amp;P 500 ETF</td>
<td>77.37 </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>iShares Bitcoin Trust</td>
<td>37.62</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF</td>
<td>30.53</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF TRUST</td>
<td>30.21</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1</td>
<td>27.31</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Data: TradingView as of Jan. 29, 2025</figcaption></figure>
Read now: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/25/01/43327699/mohamed-el-erian-says-fed-wants-to-fly-under-the-radar-expects-no-rate-cut-until-june-at-the-earliest">Mohamed El-Erian Says Fed Wants To &#8216;Fly Under The Radar,&#8217; Expects No Rate Cut Until June At The Earliest</a></li>
</ul>
Photo: Shutterstock

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