iShares U.S. Consumer Discretionary ETF (ARCA: IYC)

에 대한 최신 뉴스 iShares U.S. Consumer Discretionary ETF (ARCA:IYC)

iShares U.S. Consumer Discretionary ETF

iShares U.S. Consumer Services ETF

Consumer Cyclical

Communication Services

Consumer Defensive

Industrials

The fund generally invests at least 90% of its assets in securities of the underlying index and in depositary receipts representing securities of the underlying index. The underlying index measures the performance of domestic equities in the consumer services industry.

Amazon.Com Inc

Tesla, Inc.

Home Depot Inc/The

Costco Wholesale Corp.

Walmart, Inc.

Netflix, Inc.

Mcdonald'S Corp

Walt Disney Co

Lowes Cos., Inc.

Uber Technologies Inc

Booking Holdings, Inc.

inflation shutter3

Opinion

Trading Ideas

iShares Trust Dow Jones USnsumer Services Sector Index Fund

한 번의 높은 CPI 수치로 경각심을 불러일으키기 어렵지만, 투자자와 소비자들은 경계심을 갖게 되었다. 이전에 기록했던 CPI 9%라는 수치의 상처는 여전히 모든 사람의 마음에 생생하게 남아 있으며, 몇 번 더 높은 수치가 나온다면 2025년의 금리인하 희망이 사라질 수 있다. 인플레이션이 다시 시작되면 일부 섹터는 다른 섹터보다 더 제대로 대비해야 한다.

인플레이션 재상승 우려 속 피해야 할 섹터 5개

Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CMG#NYSE">CMG</a>) has long been a hot favorite in burrito bowls <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs">and ETF portfolios</a>.
However, with analysts tempering their expectations and the stock losing 18.3% year to date, ETFs that were once feasting on Chipotle might now be excusing themselves from the table.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Who&#8217;s Got Chipotle on the Menu?</h2>
Several standout ETFs include Chipotle in their holdings—either for its growth story, brand power, or margins. Here&#8217;s who&#8217;s likely mulling the latest news:
Also Read: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs/broad-u-s-equity-etfs/25/04/44947467/voo-vs-vti-buffett-approves-this-battle-for-your-portfolio">VOO Vs. VTI: Buffett Approves This Battle For Your Portfolio</a>
<ul>
<li>Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLY#NYSE">XLY</a>): A juggernaut ETF of large consumer favorites, XLY has had Chipotle as one of its growth bets, alongside Amazon (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>) and McDonald&#8217;s (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MCD#NYSE">MCD</a>). But CMG&#8217;s recent softness could count against its spice factor overall. Currently, the fund has cut it&#8217;s <a href="https://www.ssga.com/us/en/intermediary/etfs/the-consumer-discretionary-select-sector-spdr-fund-xly">exposure </a>to the stock to 1.9% of its overall AUM.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>iShares U.S. Consumer Services ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IYC#NYSE">IYC</a>): The fund provides general <a href="https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239506/ishares-us-consumer-discretionary-etf">exposure </a>to consumer services, where Chipotle&#8217;s high-end dining experience has gotten it included. Price target cuts by analysts may prompt fund managers to reconsider their holding, which has already gone down to 1.2%.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>AdvisorShares Restaurant ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EATZ#NYSE">EATZ</a>): Arguably the most burrito-invested fund on Wall Street, EATZ has a stake in both fast-casual and full-service restaurants. With Chipotle&#8217;s stock now plummeting, the ETF will take the burn harder, as Chipotle <a href="https://advisorshares.com/etfs/eatz/#holdings">enjoys </a>more than 3% of the fund&#8217;s AUM.</li>
</ul>
Though these funds aren&#8217;t ditching Chipotle quite yet, they&#8217;re definitely serving up the risk salsa as analysts call for more restraint ahead of earnings.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">What&#8217;s Cooking?</h2>
When Chipotle announces earnings on Wednesday, <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/restaurants/25/04/44952286/chipotle-international-expansion-on-the-menu-analyst-cautions-on-guidance-tariffs-in-earnings-preview">it&#8217;ll be offering up more than just revenue and EPS</a>—it&#8217;ll be serving up macro trends, international strategy, and how it&#8217;s coping with tariffs and cost pressures.
Guggenheim&#8217;s Gregory Francfort recently cut his price target from $56 to $48, citing weak traffic, weather issues, and lukewarm credit card data. While keeping his rating at Neutral, he anticipates a same-store sales downgrade to &#8220;flat to low single digits.&#8221;
Also Read: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/restaurants/25/04/44823749/wall-street-sours-on-chipotle-here-are-etfs-caught-in-the-crossfire">Wall Street Sours On Chipotle: Here Are ETFs Caught In The Crossfire</a>
And Francfort&#8217;s not the only one. Other analysts are joining in. Barclays cut the price target from $60 to $56; Truist came down to $61 from $74; Wells Fargo is down to $60 from $70; UBS has gone from $70 to $65; and KeyBanc, from $64 to $60.
But some numbers provide a counterpoint. Placer.ai <a href="https://www.placer.ai/anchor/articles/mcdonalds-chipotle-in-the-new-year-q1-recap">tracks </a>Q1 traffic expansion of 4.5% YoY, significantly beating the fast-casual category&#8217;s 4.2% decline. Chipotle&#8217;s new Honey Chicken introduction can potentially drive comps too.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">A Global Game Plan</h2>
Chipotle just revealed plans to move into Mexico in 2026 through a deal with restaurant behemoth Alsea. That would be the chain&#8217;s seventh global market. With more than 3,700 restaurants today and a 7,000-store long-term target in North America, global expansion is the new frontier, but it could be a hard sell in a rough macroeconomic climate.
At the same time, management is absorbing<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/tariffs"> tariff-driven cost increases</a> (avocados, we're looking at you), which might win over avocado loyalists but could hurt margins in upcoming guidance.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Is Chipotle Still ETF-Worthy?</h2>
While Chipotle is still a high-growth competitor with strong brand power, investors, ETF managers, and analysts like Francfort are wondering if the premium multiple is still warranted. A solid earnings report might revive optimism, but anything short of that might lead ETFs to begin cutting exposure.
Ultimately, Chipotle&#8217;s next earnings plate will indicate if it&#8217;s still a market delicacy… or merely extra guac on a dwindling budget.
Read Next: 
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/04/44934617/the-magnificent-meltdown-qqq-tanks-as-big-techs-shine-wears-off-but-theres-a-silver-lining">Magnificent Meltdown: QQQ Tanks As Big Tech&#8217;s Shine Wears Off, But There&#8217;s A Silver Lining</a></li>
</ul>
Image: Shutterstock

Specialty ETFs

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AMZN

EATZ

Select Sector SPDR-Consumer Discretionary

Chipotle Isn't So Hot Ahead Of Earnings: Will ETFs Push The Plate Away?

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CMG#NYSE">CMG</a>) finds itself in the spotlight again as some Wall Street analysts lowered their price targets prior to the company&#8217;s first-quarter earnings release on April 23. These changes are not only important to Chipotle shareholders but also to a small group of <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs">ETFs that have significant exposure to the shares</a>.
In cutting back near-term projections, while still holding bullish views, RBC Capital Markets, Stifel, Oppenheimer and KeyBanc Capital Markets analysts attribute lower customer fervor and a more complicated growth trajectory during the second half of the year.
Also Read: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/04/44812438/exclusive-argents-new-etfs-arent-chasing-ai-or-meme-stocks-heres-what-theyre-buying-instead">Exclusive: Argent&#8217;s New ETFs Are Not Chasing AI Or Meme Stocks, Here&#8217;s What They&#8217;re Buying Instead</a>
The following are three ETFs that investors will need to keep an eye on as sentiment changes:
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">ETFs In Focus</h1>
Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLY#NYSE">XLY</a>)
This is one of the largest consumer discretionary ETFs and it has Chipotle as a significantly weighted holding, which is updated regularly. The fund also provides access to big-box retailers and services players like Home Depot Inc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/HD#NYSE">HD</a>) and Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>). Chipotle&#8217;s premium price and high-growth fundamentals have tended to provide a boost to the ETF. That said, as price targets get reduced by analysts and the near-term menu traction gets tempered with caution, the ETF might see slight pressure, especially if first-quarter reports are weak or guidance is light.
iShares U.S. Consumer Discretrionary ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IYC#NYSE">IYC</a>) This ETF tracks the Dow Jones U.S. Consumer Services Index, and has Chipotle among its high-growth holdings. Exposure to Chipotle makes the fund susceptible to sentiment swings, particularly as hedge funds seem to be taking a step back from the stock. The ETF&#8217;s performance will depend on whether Chipotle can restore investor confidence in its next earnings call. However, currently the fund seems to have cut its Chipotle exposure, which will limit the impact.
AdvisorShares Restaurant ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EATZ#NYSE">EATZ</a>) As a dedicated pure-play restaurant fund, this ETF is among those exposed to Chipotle. Typically, Chipotle remains among its top five to 10 holdings, but the fund has currently decreased its exposure to 3.34%. The ETF&#8217;s sensitivity to industry giants makes it especially vulnerable to any earnings fluctuation. Should the limited-time Chipotle Honey Chicken fail to spur substantial traffic growth, or should margin fears return, this ETF might experience short-term headwinds.
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">What Analysts Are Saying</h1>
RBC Capital Markets reduced its target price for Chipotle to $65 from $70, but kept an Outperform rating, according to multiple media sources. Analyst Logan Reich made the adjustment based on store-level checks of the product, which were done at 32 locations. Although Chipotle continued to outperform with last year&#8217;s limited-time item, Al Pastor, the excitement seemed to subside in April versus March. The percentage of units reporting higher traffic since the menu item&#8217;s introduction declined from 75% to 68%.
Stifel also acted similarly, lowering its price target from $68 to $65 but keeping a Buy rating. Short-term issues were recognized by analysts, but they expect operational improvement and menu development to underwrite second-quarter growth.
Oppenheimer also reduced its target to $66 while reaffirming its Outperform rating. The company views a better setup in the second half of 2025, observing that possible tariff-related headwinds will have little impact on earnings.
KeyBanc Capital Markets reduced its price target to $60 from $64. Though still Overweight on the stock, analyst Eric Gonzalez pointed to a tough setup for the rest of the year. He also pointed to decreased hedge fund interest and revised same-store sales growth estimates to 1% for the first quarter and 1.5% for the second quarter. Gonzalez stressed that while revenue trends picked up at the close of March, the lift could prove fleeting as a result of seasonal factors such as the Easter holiday.
In spite of these pared-back expectations, it should be noted that the firm has <a href="https://ir.chipotle.com/2025-02-04-CHIPOTLE-ANNOUNCES-FOURTH-QUARTER-AND-FULL-YEAR-2024-RESULTS">posted </a>revenue expansion of almost 14.6% in the full year 2024, highlighting its strength even in a conservative market environment.
Everybody is now waiting for Chipotle&#8217;s April 23 earnings report. For investors holding ETFs such as XLY, IYC and EATZ, the outcome will be an important litmus test for the restaurant chain&#8217;s short-term momentum and long-term growth potential.
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Photo: Shutterstock

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Restaurants

Analyst Ratings

Wall Street Sours On Chipotle: Here Are ETFs Caught In The Crossfire

Investors in the United States received a jolt last week as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in at 3%, one of the hottest inflation readings in months. The CPI had been steadily declining since topping 9% in 2022, and markets had assumed that the Federal Reserve was on track to get close to the 2% target benchmark by the end of the year.
But this hot print raises some questions. Are these one-off effects from seasonal incidences or consumers getting ahead of potential tariffs? Or are specific inputs like food and energy flashing warning signs of a new inflationary wave?
While one hot CPI report is hardly cause for alarm, it did put investors and consumers on guard. The scars of 9% readings are still fresh in everyone's mind, and a few more hot prints could end any rate cut hopes for 2025. If inflation reignites, some sectors will be better prepared than others.
Here are five sectors to consider avoiding if inflation stays high.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Consumer Discretionary</h2>
When inflation roared following the COVID-19 pandemic, consumers buckled down and focused on essentials over luxuries and experiences. Inflation frequently hurts companies in the consumer discretionary sectors that depend on infrequent purchases or have more affordable substitutes. It also erodes purchasing power, giving consumers less income for disposable goods.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="420" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20154223/arca-1024x420.png" alt="" class="wp-image-791862" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20154223/arca-1024x420.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20154223/arca-300x123.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20154223/arca-768x315.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20154223/arca.png 1309w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
The iShares US Consumer Discretionary ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IYC#NYSE">IYC</a>) chart shows that the sector topped out in November 2021 and failed to make new highs for nearly three years. The ETF has increased 28% over the last 12 months as CPI receded closer to 2%, but a new wave could stifle the sector, especially in industries like automakers, home builders, travel companies, and luxury apparel brands. If inflation continues moving higher in the next few months, consider reducing exposure to stocks like cruise lines, hotels, and specialty retailers.&nbsp;
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)</h2>
Thanks to their strong dividends, REITs are sometimes considered an inflation hedge. However, inflation also tends to increase borrowing costs through higher rates, and debt-laden companies like REITs don't enjoy paying more to finance their activities. When borrowing costs rise, REITs may choose to slow down expansion or stop increasing dividend payouts. High rates can also lock homebuyers out of the market as they wait for better financing options.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="420" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20154234/van-1024x420.png" alt="" class="wp-image-791863" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20154234/van-1024x420.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20154234/van-300x123.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20154234/van-768x315.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20154234/van.png 1309w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
The Vanguard Real Estate ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VNQ#NYSE">VNQ</a>) lost 37% between December 2021 and October 2023, showing that REITs aren't immune to hot CPI prints and Fed rate hikes. If inflation stays high, REITs that own high-vacancy properties or are located in stagnant markets would be most at risk of a drawdown.
Commercial REITs are especially at risk as companies often headcount when rates are high, and work-from-home continues to become more standard at large companies (although some are fighting to bring workers back to the office). When researching REITs, avoid companies with high debt levels, a poor property portfolio, and high dividend payout ratios.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Biotechnology</h2>
The biotech sector is always a tumultuous place to invest, and periods of high inflation and uncertainty can exacerbate that fact by several degrees. Biotech innovations are expensive and time-consuming, with results often coming months or years down the road. When investors adopt short-term mindsets, sectors like biotech that require extended periods of testing and trials lose favor.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="420" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20154243/pdr-1024x420.png" alt="" class="wp-image-791864" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20154243/pdr-1024x420.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20154243/pdr-300x123.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20154243/pdr-768x315.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20154243/pdr.png 1309w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
The biotech sector has yet to recover from the bear market of 2022, and persistent inflation and high rates could spell more trouble for the beleaguered industry. Biotech companies chew up capital like dogs on a steak, requiring extensive upfront investment in research and development.
Many early-stage biotechs have no revenue and rely solely on debt to stay afloat. When the cost of supplies and financing rises, these companies often need to sell more stock than they'd prefer, which dilutes existing shareholders. Coupled with the fact that investors seek to reduce risk in uncertain periods, the biotech sector looks dicey to start 2025.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Industrials</h2>
Like biotech, the industrial sector has two significant headwinds working against it when inflation is high: long timeframes and capital-intensive projects. Industrial companies build homes, produce heavy equipment, or transport valuable raw goods, all requiring lots of pre-planning and capital.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="420" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20154252/spdr-ser-1024x420.png" alt="" class="wp-image-791865" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20154252/spdr-ser-1024x420.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20154252/spdr-ser-300x123.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20154252/spdr-ser-768x315.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20154252/spdr-ser.png 1309w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
The SDPR Sector Select Industrial Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLI#NYSE">XLI</a>) has enjoyed a nice rebound after trading in a tight range throughout 2022 and 2023. However, if inflation also rebounds, companies in this sector will be forced to pay higher capital costs and may have to put projects on hold. The industrial sector is highly cyclical, and slowdowns often trickle into other market sectors.
Additionally, industrial companies employ large workforces and often have weaker pricing power than sectors less reliant on operational capital. As mentioned above, expensive and time-consuming is a bad combination when inflation or interest rates are high.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Utilities</h2>
Utilities are supposed to be a safe sector during market drawdowns – typically. They are a safe haven during bear markets because of their low volatility and reliable dividends. But your typical market drawdown doesn't involve high rates and CPI over 3%, and utilities aren't always the safest hideout in those conditions. The performance of the SDPR Sector Select Utilities ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLU#NYSE">XLU</a>) below shows that bear markets aren't always a boon to the sector.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="420" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20154259/spdr-util-1024x420.png" alt="" class="wp-image-791866" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20154259/spdr-util-1024x420.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20154259/spdr-util-300x123.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20154259/spdr-util-768x315.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20154259/spdr-util.png 1309w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
The appeal of utilities comes not from capital appreciation but from the quarterly dividends. Income through dividends creates a bond-like instrument for many investors, who pair utilities with riskier stocks like tech stocks to have both growth and income assets. However, if inflation rises, rates follow, and high rates will make actual bonds like US Treasuries and corporate debt more appealing.
Suppose investors can get a similar yield from a US Treasury bill as a utility stock. In that case, they'll naturally lean toward the Treasury bill, which locks in a coupon payment and guarantees a return of capital once the term ends. Additionally, utilities are debt-laden and subject to heavy regulatory scrutiny. Regulatory lag could hurt these companies&#8217; bottom lines as price increases often must be approved by law.
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5 Sectors to Avoid as Inflation Returns

On CNBC's &#8220;<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/video/2025/01/22/final-trades-applovin-the-ibit-and-the-iyc.html">Halftime Report Final Trades</a>,&#8221; Joseph M. Terranova of Virtus Investment Partners named AppLovin Corporation (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/APP#NASDAQ">APP</a>) as <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/APP/analyst-ratings">his final trade</a>.
Supporting his view, UBS analyst John Hodulik, on Wednesday, maintained AppLovin with a Buy rating and increased the price target from $315 to $440. Also Wells Fargo analyst Alec Brondolo, on Jan. 13, maintained the stock with an Overweight rating and raised the price target from $360 to $366.
Shannon Saccocia of NB Private Wealth picked iShares US Consumer Discretionary ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IYC#NYSE">IYC</a>).
 Don't forget to check out our <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/premarket/">premarket coverage here</a>
Rounding out the trades, Stephen Weiss of Short Hills Capital Partners named iShares Bitcoin Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IBIT#NYSE">IBIT</a>) as his final trade.
Bitcoin, meanwhile, traded slightly below $102,000 at last check Thursday morning. 
Though the <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/01/43087038/trump-names-uyeda-acting-sec-chair-as-crypto-regulations-get-set-for-a-makeover">SEC under acting chairman</a> Mark Uyeda launched a dedicated cryptocurrency task force to frame regulations for the industry, investors have been left disappointed due to no cryptocurrency-related executive <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/movers/25/01/43150757/bitcoin-ethereum-dogecoin-drop-amid-stock-rally-cooling-investor-sentiment-on-trump-analyst-projects-btc-at-150k-if-history-repeats">orders from Trump thus far.</a>
Price Action:
<ul>
<li>AppLovin shares gained 6.9% to close at $361.72 during Wednesday's session.</li>
<li>iShares US Consumer Discretionary ETF rose slightly by 0.04% during Wednesday's session.</li>
<li>iShares Bitcoin Trust fell 1.7% to close at $59.38 on Wednesday.</li>
</ul>
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/01/43126364/jim-cramer-this-tech-stock-is-a-buy-amd-is-a-great-company">Jim Cramer: AMD Is A &#8216;Great&#8217; Company, Hold Onto Dow Inc.</a></li>
</ul>
Image: Courtesy of AppLovin

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AppLovin, IBIT And More: CNBC's 'Final Trades'

CNBC Halftime Report Final Trades: iShares Bitcoin Trust, iShares U.S. Consumer Discretionary ETF, Applovin

Launched on 06/12/2000, the iShares U.S. Consumer Discretionary ETF (ARCA:IYC) is a passively managed exchange traded fund designed to provide a broad exposure to the Consumer Discretionary - Broad segment of the equity market.
Passively managed ETFs are becoming increasingly popular with institutional as well as retail investors due to their low cost, transparency, flexibility and tax efficiency. They are excellent vehicles for long term investors.
Additionally, sector ETFs offer convenient ways to gain low risk and diversified exposure to a broad group of companies in particular sectors. Consumer Discretionary - Broad is one of the 16 broad Zacks sectors within the Zacks Industry classification. It is currently ranked 11, placing it in bottom 31%.
<h2>Index Details</h2>
The fund is sponsored by Blackrock (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/blk#NYSE">BLK</a>). It has amassed assets over $1.06 billion, making it one of the larger ETFs attempting to match the performance of the Consumer Discretionary - Broad segment of the equity market. IYC seeks to match the performance of the Dow Jones U.S. Consumer Services Index before fees and expenses.
The Russell 1000 Consumer Disc 40 Act 15/22.5 Daily Capped Index measures the performance of the consumer services sector of the U.S. equity market.
<h2>Costs</h2>
Cost is an important factor in selecting the right ETF, and cheaper funds can significantly outperform their more expensive counterparts if all other fundamentals are the same.
Annual operating expenses for this ETF are 0.40%, making it one of the cheaper products in the space.
It has a 12-month trailing dividend yield of 0.62%.
<h2>Sector Exposure and Top Holdings</h2>
It is important to delve into an ETF&#39;s holdings before investing despite the many upsides to these kinds of funds like diversified exposure, which minimizes single stock risk. And, most ETFs are very transparent products that disclose their holdings on a daily basis.
This ETF has heaviest allocation in the Consumer Discretionary sector--about 68.90% of the portfolio. Telecom and Consumer Staples round out the top three.
Looking at individual holdings, Amazon Com Inc accounts for about 13.24% of total assets, followed by Tesla Inc and Home Depot Inc.
The top 10 holdings account for about 50.07% of total assets under management.
<h2>Performance and Risk</h2>
So far this year, IYC has gained about 9.43%, and was up about 20.46% in the last one year (as of 08/29/2024). During this past 52-week period, the fund has traded between $63.10 and $84.94.
The ETF has a beta of 1.16 and standard deviation of 22.22% for the trailing three-year period, making it a medium risk choice in the space. With about 182 holdings, it effectively diversifies company-specific risk.
<h2>Alternatives</h2>
IShares U.S. Consumer Discretionary ETF carries a Zacks ETF Rank of 3 (Hold), which is based on expected asset class return, expense ratio, and momentum, among other factors. Thus, IYC is a reasonable option for those seeking exposure to the Consumer Discretionary ETFs area of the market. Investors might also want to consider some other ETF options in the space.
Vanguard Consumer Discretionary ETF (ARCA:VCR) tracks MSCI US Investable Market Consumer Discretionary 25/50 Index and the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (ARCA:XLY) tracks Consumer Discretionary Select Sector Index. Vanguard Consumer Discretionary ETF has $5.55 billion in assets, Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF has $18.51 billion. VCR has an expense ratio of 0.10% and XLY charges 0.09%.
<a href="https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/2328673/should-you-invest-in-the-ishares-u-s-consumer-discretionary-etf-iyc?cid=CS-BENZ-FT-sector_etf-2328673">To read this article on Zacks.com click here.</a>

Mid Cap

Sector ETFs

Dividends

Should You Invest in the iShares U.S. Consumer Discretionary ETF?

Americans are feeling optimistic about the economy given stabilizing inflation and shifting election sentiments. This is especially true as consumer sentiment rose in early August for the first time in five months. Rising consumer sentiment bodes well for household spending in the coming months. It is expected to have a positive impact on the consumer discretionary sector, which attracts a major portion of consumer spending.
Investors can tap the encouraging trend in the basket form through consumer discretionary ETFs like Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund (ARCA:XLY), Vanguard Consumer Discretionary ETF (ARCA:VCR), Fidelity MSCI Consumer Discretionary Index ETF (ARCA:FDIS), First Trust Consumer Discretionary AlphaDEX Fund (ARCA:FXD) and iShares U.S. Consumer Services ETF (ARCA:IYC). These funds have a Zacks ETF Rank #3 (Hold).
The latest University of Michigan consumer sentiment index climbed from 66.4 in July to 67.8, marking the highest reading of consumer sentiment since June. This has sparked strong optimism surrounding the economy and the stock market, which eased concerns about a cooling labor market in early August.
According to the survey, inflation expectations remained stable at 2.9% over the next year and 3% over the next five to 10 years. Consumers&#39; expectations of inflation over the next year remain at their lowest level since December 2020.
Most of the rise in confidence came from presidential election developments. Sentiment for Democrats rose 6% as Vice President Kamala Harris gained ground in public polling while sentiment for Republicans fell 5%. The survey showed that 41% of consumers believe Harris is the better candidate for the economy, while 38% said Trump is better.
Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund
Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund offers exposure to the broad consumer discretionary space and tracks the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector Index. It holds 52 securities in its basket, with key holdings in specialty retail, hotels, restaurants and leisure, broadline retail, and automobiles with a double-digit allocation each.
Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund is the largest and most popular product in this space, with AUM of $18.6 billion and an average daily volume of around 3 million shares. It charges 0.09% in expense ratio.
Vanguard Consumer Discretionary ETF
Vanguard Consumer Discretionary ETF follows the MSCI U.S. Investable Market Consumer Discretionary 25/50 Index and holds 302 stocks in its basket. In terms of industrial exposure, broadline retail, automobile manufacturers and restaurants occupy the top three spots.
Vanguard Consumer Discretionary ETF is the low-cost choice in the space, charging investors only 10 bps in annual fees while volume is good at nearly 61,000 shares a day. The fund has managed $5.4 billion in its asset base so far.
Fidelity MSCI Consumer Discretionary Index ETF
Fidelity MSCI Consumer Discretionary Index ETF tracks the MSCI USA IMI Consumer Discretionary Index, holding 274 stocks in its basket. It has key holdings in broadline retail, specialty retail, hotels, restaurants and leisure, and automobiles.
Fidelity MSCI Consumer Discretionary Index ETF has amassed $1.6 billion in its asset base while trading in a good volume of around 137,000 shares a day on average. It charges 8 bps in annual fees from investors.
First Trust Consumer Discretionary AlphaDEX Fund
First Trust Consumer Discretionary AlphaDEX Fund follows an AlphaDEX methodology and ranks stocks in the space by various growth and value factors, eliminating the bottom-ranked 25% of the stocks. This approach results in a basket of 120 stocks with retailers, travel and leisure, media&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; and personal goods taking double-digit exposure each.
First Trust Consumer Discretionary AlphaDEX has an AUM of $1.5 billion and trades in a volume of 47,000 shares per day on average. It charges a higher 61 bps in annual fees.
iShares U.S. Consumer Services ETF
iShares U.S. Consumer Discretionary ETF offers exposure to U.S. companies that distribute food, drugs, general retail items and media by tracking the Russell 1000 Consumer Disc 40 Act 15/22.5 Daily Capped Index. It holds 176 stocks in its basket, with key holdings in consumer discretionary, consumer services, media &amp; entertainment, consumer staples distribution &amp; retail, and autos &amp; components.
iShares U.S. Consumer Discretionary ETF has amassed $1 billion in its asset base and trades in a moderate volume of 123,000 shares a day on average. It charges 40 bps in annual fees from investors.
<a href="https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/2324514/etfs-to-tap-as-consumer-sentiment-improves?cid=CS-BENZ-FT-etf_news_and_commentary-2324514">To read this article on Zacks.com click here.</a>

Large Cap

Retail Sales

FDIS

First Trustnsumer Discretionary AlphaDEX Fund

ETFs to Tap as Consumer Sentiment Improves

On CNBC's &#8220;<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/video/2024/04/29/final-trades-delta-air-lines-jpmorgan-chase-and-the-iyc.html">Halftime Report Final Trades</a>,&#8221; JPMorgan Private Bank's Anastasia Amoroso picked iShares US Consumer Discretionary ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IYC#NYSE">IYC</a>) as consumer spending is picking up and consumers are spending on services, <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/IYC/dividend">travel and e-commerce</a>.
Jim Lebenthal of Cerity Partners named Delta Air Lines, Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DAL#NYSE">DAL</a>), as the fundamentals look great.
On April 10, Delta Air Lines reported better-than-expected first-quarter earnings. Delta reported a first-quarter 2024 operating revenue growth of 8% year-over-year to $13.748 billion and adjusted operating revenue of $12.563 billion (+6% YoY), beating the consensus of $12.57 billion. Adjusted EPS was 45 cents, above the consensus of 36 cents, according to data from <a href="https://pro.benzinga.com/dashboard">Benzinga Pro</a>.
Don't forget to check out our <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/premarket/">premarket coverage here</a>
Joseph M. Terranova of Virtus Investment Partners named JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/JPM#NYSE">JPM</a>) as his final trade.
On April 12, JPMorgan Chase reported better-than-expected first-quarter earnings. Net revenue (managed) of $42.5 billion (+8% Y/Y), beating the consensus of $41.8 billion. Excluding an item resulted in an increase of $550 million (after tax) to reported net income from $13.4 billion to $14.0 billion and an increase of $0.19 per share to reported EPS from $4.44 to $4.63. EPS was $4.44, beating the <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/24/04/38247911/jpmorgan-analysts-slash-their-forecasts-after-q1-results">consensus of $4.15, according to data from Benzinga Pro.</a>
Price Action:
<ul>
<li>Delta Air Lines shares rose 1.1% to close at $50.45 on Monday.</li>
<li>iShares US Consumer Discretionary ETF gained 1.3% during Monday's session.</li>
<li>JPMorgan shares fell 0.1% to settle at $193.28 on Monday.</li>
</ul>
Check This Out: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/24/04/38510122/coca-cola-amazon-and-3-stocks-to-watch-heading-into-tuesday">Coca-Cola, Amazon And 3 Stocks To Watch Heading Into Tuesday</a>
Photo: Shutterstock

Delta Air Lines, JPMorgan And More On CNBC's 'Final Trades'

CNBC Halftime Report Final Trades: JP Morgan Chase & Co., Delta Air Lines, IShares U.S. Consumer Discretionary ETF

Amazon.Com Inc&nbsp;(NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>) is focusing its strategic efforts on&nbsp;<a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/23/12/36252385/amazon-ramps-up-efforts-in-china-to-tackle-rising-competition-from-temu-and-shein" rel="noreferrer noopener">countering the rise</a>&nbsp;of emerging e-commerce platforms&nbsp;PDD Holdings Inc&nbsp;(NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PDD#NASDAQ">PDD</a>)&nbsp;Temu&nbsp;and&nbsp;Shein, recognizing them as significant competitors in the online retail sector.&nbsp;
These platforms, originating from China, have swiftly gained traction in the U.S. market, directly targeting Amazon&#8217;s customer base.&nbsp;
Temu, in particular, has launched a massive advertising campaign, securing its position as the leading advertiser on&nbsp;Meta Platforms Inc&nbsp;(NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>) in 2023.
Also Read:&nbsp;<a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/24/03/37844136/alibabas-aliexpress-sees-order-surge-with-new-5-day-delivery-to-the-us-expanding-global-reach" rel="noreferrer noopener">Alibaba&#8217;s AliExpress Sees Order Surge with New 5-Day Delivery to the US, Expanding Global Reach</a>
To maintain its competitive edge, Amazon is leveraging its strengths in customer trust and speedy delivery, the Wall Street Journal&nbsp;<a target="_blank" href="https://www.wsj.com/tech/amazons-new-focus-fending-off-rivals-temu-and-shein-5c6ac205?mod=tech_lead_story" rel="noreferrer noopener">reports</a>.&nbsp;
The company is expanding its same-day delivery offerings, especially electronics, and developing marketing campaigns highlighting its reliability and quick delivery capabilities.&nbsp;
Despite Amazon&#8217;s efforts to innovate and adapt, challenges from Temu and Shein persist.&nbsp;
These competitors have rapidly grown in the U.S., with Temu&#8217;s monthly active users rising in a short span. Their strategy includes offering bargain prices and shipping directly from China, albeit at slower delivery speeds than Amazon.
Previously, Amazon intended to set up an innovation hub near Shenzhen, the center of technology and e-commerce in China.&nbsp;
In 2023, Amazon witnessed a more than 20% rise in sales from Chinese vendors, with an increasing number of sellers reaching sales figures above $10 million.
Temu is drawing in manufacturers who previously worked with its fast-fashion competitor, Shein,&nbsp;<a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/02/37101701/temu-vs-shein-battle-intensifies-as-temu-woos-sellers-targets-amazon-and-walmart" rel="noreferrer noopener">per prior reports</a>. By offering these manufacturers a new platform to sell their inexpensive products, Temu is capitalizing on Shein&#8217;s efforts to streamline its supply chain for a significant&nbsp;<a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/23/12/36340412/alibaba-rival-sheins-ipo-plans-under-fire-congressional-inquiry-into-companys-data-privacy-and-force" rel="noreferrer noopener">U.S. stock market debut</a>.&nbsp;
Furthermore, Temu is intensifying its competition with retail giants like Amazon and&nbsp;Walmart Inc&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/WMT#NYSE">WMT</a>) by encouraging suppliers to take charge of logistics and delivery, aiming to lower market prices through substantial subsidies and faster delivery times to customers.
Amazon&#8217;s stock has gained over 77% in the last 12 months. Investors can gain exposure to the stock via&nbsp;IShares U.S. Consumer Discretionary ETF&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IYC#NYSE">IYC</a>) and&nbsp;VanEck Retail ETF&nbsp;(NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/RTH#NASDAQ">RTH</a>).
Price Action:&nbsp;AMZN shares closed higher by 1.28% at $178.15 on Wednesday.
Also Read:&nbsp;<a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/24/02/37135093/alibaba-seeks-growth-beyond-china-strategic-alliances-in-gulf-countries-mark-a-new-chapter-for-tech" rel="noreferrer noopener">Alibaba Seeks Growth Beyond China, Strategic Alliances in Gulf Countries Mark a New Chapter for Tech Giant</a>
Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
Photo by ANIRUDH on Unsplash

Amazon Amps Up Delivery Speed and Trust to Tackle Alibaba Rivals Temu and Shein's Rapid US Expansion

On CNBC&rsquo;s &ldquo;<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/video/2022/07/27/final-trades-exxon-nvidia-devon-energy-more.html">Halftime Report Final Trades</a>,&rdquo; Degas Wright of Decatur Capital Management said Enterprise Products Partners L.P. (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/epd#NYSE">EPD</a>) has 50,000 miles of pipelines transporting natural gas and diesel. The company offers a 7% dividend yield, he added.
Stephen Weiss of Short Hills Capital Partners chose Devon Energy Corp (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/dvn#NYSE">DVN</a>), saying the company is 50-50 natural gas and oil.
&ldquo;Management is phenomenal&rdquo; and&nbsp;natural gas will &ldquo;continue to go up in price,&rdquo; he said.&nbsp;
Check out other energy stocks making moves in the <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/premarket/">premarket</a>.
Joseph Terranova of Virtus Investment Partners said there is momentum in Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/nvda#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>) and it&rsquo;s not a time to sell&nbsp;shares.
Jim Lebenthal of Cerity Partners named Exxon Mobil Corp (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/xom#NYSE">XOM</a>) as his final trade.
Liz Young of BNY Mellon Investment Management chose iShares US Consumer Discretionary ETF (BMV: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/iyc#BMV">IYC</a>). Young said she expects the growth <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/money/best-sectors-to-invest-in-right-now/">sector</a> to &ldquo;lead us out of this bear market.&rdquo;

NVDA

CNBC's Final Trades: Nvidia, Consumer Discretionary And These 3 Energy Plays

CNBC&rsquo;s &quot;Fast Money: Halftime Report&quot; delivers market-moving news to investors.
The commentary delivered by hosts of the show often moves the stocks mentioned. The information is collected and refined using <a href="https://benzinga.grsm.io/register174">Benzinga Pro&rsquo;s</a> News Tool. Benzinga Pro users can access this information by using the News tool on any workstation.
Traders on the show sold the following stocks:
Amazon.com, Inc (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/amzn#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>)&nbsp;Steve Weiss&nbsp;of Short Hills Capital Partners sold his position in the company but said he is willing to buy again in the future.
Call of the day:
Lululemon Athletica Inc (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/lulu#NASDAQ">LULU</a>)
Final trades:
Enterprise Products Partners L.P. (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/epd#NYSE">EPD</a>)
NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/nvda#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>)
Devon Energy Corp (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/dvn#NYSE">DVN</a>)
Exxon Mobil Corp (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/xom#NYSE">XOM</a>)
iShares US Consumer Discretionary ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/iyc#NYSE">IYC</a>)

General

LULU

Wednesday's CNBC Fast Money Halftime Report Mentions

iShares Dow Jones US Energy Sector Index Fund

Benzinga Pro Mid-Day Price Check For Sector ETFs: Technology (XLK) Up 1.3%, Industrial (XLI) Up 1%, Healthcare (XLV) Up 0.6%, Retail (XRT) Up 0.2%, Materials (XLB) Down 0.6%, Energy (IYE) Down 0.8%

In a move to bolster deregulation in the telecom space, Federal Communications Commission (FCC) unveiled a draft to repeal the Net Neutrality regulation undertaken in the Obama era. The FCC is slated to vote on the proposed changes at its next monthly meeting on Dec 14.
The rules so far have prevented high-speed Internet service providers (I.S.P), from stopping or slowing down the delivery of websites. They also inhibited the companies from charging customers additional fees for <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/21/technology/fcc-net-neutrality.html">high-quality streaming and other services</a>, as per the source.
Below we highlight a few ETF winners and losers if the FCC rule is passed.
Winners 
All ISPs along with several cable TV and telecommunications industry behemoths have been fervently opposing Net Neutrality. The Obama era move proved to be less profitable for these companies thanks to a deluge of prohibitions.
Abandoning of the discriminatory policy in turn results in lower investments in the high-speed broadband sector. In any case, &quot;per a recent study by USTelecom, investment in broadband infrastructure declined from its peak at $<a href="https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/283774/fcc-plans-to-abandon-net-neutrality-major-boon-for-isps">78.4 billion</a> in 2014 to $77.9 billion in 2015 and $76 billion in 2016.&quot;
Needless to say, such prohibition will make telecom ETFs winners.
Vanguard Telecommunications Services ETF VOX
The fund gives exposure to the telecom industry. Verizon Communications, AT&amp;T and Level 3 Communications are the top three holdings of the fund. It holds 27 stocks in total and charges 10 bps in fees (read: <a href="https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/281116/etfs-to-watch-on-telecom-earnings">ETFs to Watch on Telecom Earnings</a>).
Fidelity MSCI Telecommunication Services Index ETF FCOM
The fund represents the performance of the telecommunication services sector in the U.S. equity market. Verizon Communications takes about 23.3% of the fund followed by AT&amp;T (22.2%) and T-Mobile US (4.65%). The fund charges 8 bps in fees.
Losers 
The announcement and the likely repeal of the rule is likely to put pressure on Internet-based companies like Google GOOGL and Amazon AMZN. Higher broadband prices and tolls for content could be imminent outcomes, as per an article published on <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/news/2017/11/22/whats-stake-fccs-net-neutrality-vote/888870001/">usatoday.com</a>. This is because content developers might have to pay higher sums to ISPs for high-speed data transfer.
Christian Dawson, executive director of i2Coalition, a group of Net infrastructure companies which includes Amazon and Google went on to explain that &quot;<a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/news/2017/11/22/whats-stake-fccs-net-neutrality-vote/888870001/">this vote will negatively impact</a> small and medium-sized Internet business, and has the potential to decrease jobs and economic growth system-wide&quot;, to the benefit of a very few large organization, quoted on usatoday.
Side by side, consumers may also be negatively impacted by this move as they might end up paying high charges.
So, a few Internet and consumer ETFs need to be watched out.
PowerShares NASDAQ Internet Portfolio PNQI
The underlying index looks to track the performance of the largest &amp; most liquid U.S.-listed companies engaged in Internet-related businesses and that are listed on one of the three major U.S. stock exchanges. The fund charges 60 bps in fees. Internet software and services companies account for about 56.1% of the fund. Amazon.com, Netflix, Alphabet and Facebook are the top four holdings of the fund (read: <a href="https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/281437/topranked-tech-etfs-to-buy-on-facebooks-robust-q3">Top-Ranked Tech ETFs to Buy on Facebook&#39;s Robust Q3</a>). &nbsp;
Global X Social Media Index ETF SOCL
The fund looks to track the Solactive Social Media Total Return Index. Tencent Holdings (11.3%), Twitter (10.3%) and Facebook (9.8%) are top three holdings of the fund.
iShares US Consumer Services ETF IYC
The fund looks to track the price and yield performance of the Dow Jones U.S. Consumer Services Index. Retailing (40.2%), Media (21.6%), Consumer Services (17.3%) and Food &amp; Staples Retailing (12.79%) are the top four industries here (read: <a href="https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/280694/amazon-etfs-to-buy-on-q3-blowout-results">Amazon ETFs to Buy on Q3 Blowout Results</a>).
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Politics

FCOM

GOOG

PNQI

SOCL

ETF Winners And Losers If FCC Repeals Net Neutrality

Matt Boss, JPMorgan's retail analyst, was a guest on <a href="http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000567097">CNBC</a> Thursday afternoon to offer his take on the state of the retail market. The analyst quickly pointed out that the retail sector has now lapsed the most worrying week of the year with the U.S. election.
"There is no question that some of this uncertainty held the consumer back in the third quarter &mdash; it's hard to parse through the noise," he said. "We had really bad weather in the third quarter, it was much warmer year-over-year so that was an aspect for a lot of the apparel retailers."
Meanwhile, the analyst believes that department stores have delivered <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/16/11/8680543/q3-a-mixed-bag-for-department-store-stocks-so-far">encouraging earnings reports</a> and the off-price retailers are on deck to report next week.
Boss continued that the retail sector will likely benefit in the fourth quarter and first quarter of 2017 from easy year-over-year compares, especially on the traffic aspect so the sector could see more optimism.
<h3>Retailer Sector Post-Election</h3>
Boss stated that post-election the retail sector as a whole could benefit from lower corporate tax rates under President-elect <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/topic/donald-trump">Donald Trump</a>, while the consumer could also benefit from a reduction in personal tax rates.
He shied away from offering any specific recommendation but did say that the "inspirational consumer" could be shopping more in 2017.
<h3>Relevant ETFs And Trusts</h3>
<ul>
<li>VanEck Vectors Retail ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/rth#NYSE">RTH</a>).</li>
<li>SPDR S&amp;P Retail (ETF) (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/xrt#NYSE">XRT</a>).</li>
<li>Consumer Discretionary SPDR (ETF) (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/xly#NYSE">XLY</a>).</li>
<li>Guggenheim S&amp;P Equal Weight Consumer Discretionary ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/rcd#NYSE">RCD</a>).</li>
<li>Vanguard Consumer Discretionary ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/vcr#NYSE">VCR</a>).</li>
<li>PowerShares Dynamic Retail (ETF) (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/pmr#NYSE">PMR</a>).</li>
<li>First Trust Cnsmer Disry Alpha Fnd (ETF) (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/fxd#NYSE">FXD</a>).</li>
<li>iShares Dow Jones US Consumer Ser. (ETF) (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/iyc#NYSE">IYC</a>).</li>
</ul>

Analyst Color

CNBC

PowerShares ETF Trust Dynamic Retail Portfolio

Rydex ETF Trust Rydex S&P Equal Weightnsumer Discretionary ETF

JPMorgan's Retail Analyst: Trump, Warm Weather And The Back Half Of 2016

UPDATE: Morgan Stanley Says Cyclicals & Defensives May Outperform If Macro Economic Variables Continue To Improve

Exchange traded funds tracking consumer discretionary stocks have been impressive performers this year.

	The Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/xly#NYSE">XLY</a>) highlights as much as that ETF is the third-best performer of the nine sector SPDR funds this year. XLY trails only its health care and financial services equivalents.

	Over the past three years, however, XLY stands as the only <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/13/03/3447304/risk-on-rally-these-etfs-say-no">somewhat risky SPDR</a> that has outpaced lower beta fare such as the staples and health care funds. Other discretionary funds have been stellar performers as well.

	For example, the iShares U.S. Consumer Services ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/iyc#NYSE">IYC</a>) and the Vanguard Consumer Discretionary ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/vcr#NYSE">VCR</a>) are up an average of 25 percent year-to-date.

	It is trailing performances like those that could be signs that investors looking to grab discretionary sector exposure will pay up for the privilege. Russ Koesterich, global chief investment strategist for iShares, says some recent economic trends show the discretionary sector is richly valued.

	"The shifting nature of the job market and weak income growth are also significant headwinds facing US consumption," said Koesterich <a href="http://www.blackrockblog.com/2013/07/23/bargains-consumer-discretionary-aisle/">on the BlackRock blog</a>. "In June, higher mortgage rates seemed to take some of the wind out of the housing market's sales. If this were to continue, it would remove one of the big props holding up the US consumer. As such, consumer-related companies continue to look expensive."

	Koesterich also points out that the price-to-book ratio of discretionary stocks compared to the S&amp;P 500 is high, currently around 1.7. Three years ago, <a href="http://d2a9w60vuvf6aq.cloudfront.net/content/uploads/2013/07/Consumer-Discretionary.png">the ratio was 1.2</a> and at 1.7 today, that is nearly double what was seen during some of the boom times of the mid-1990s.

	Related: <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/13/04/3526196/causes-for-concern-with-discretionary-stocks-etfs">Causes For Concern With Discretionary Stocks, ETFs</a>

	"And as of last Friday, US consumer discretionary companies traded at nearly 4x book value about a 70% premium to the broader market. In other words, investors are currently paying a big premium for retailers and restaurants at a time when consumers are still struggling and spending remains weak," said Koesterich.

	Rich valuations are seen with ETFs as well. XLY's P/E ratio is close to 19 with a price-to-book ratio of 3.8. Those numbers for IYC are 20.8 and 5.3, though in the case of IYC, its valuations are inflated by its exposure to staples names such as Wal-Mart (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/wmt#NYSE">WMT</a>).

	It is easy to see why some discretionary ETFs are richly valued. Amazon.com (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/amzn#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>) wit a forward P/E of almost 97, is a top-10 holding in both IYC and XLY. After soaring 26.5 percent this year, Home Depot (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/hd#NYSE">HD</a>) now looks frothy at over 18 times next year's estimated profits.

	Caution could be warranted going forward with discretionary ETFs because the sector, as Koesterich notes, could be "discounting too much optimism."

	For more on ETFs, click <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/etfs">here</a>.

Short Ideas

Intraday Update

Discretionary ETFs Are Getting Pricey

Here is the ETF Professor's ETF Watch List for Wednesday November 14, 2012.

The U.S. Natural Gas Fund (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/ung#NYSE">UNG</a>) perked up on Tuesday.

The Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/gdxj#NYSE">GDXJ</a>) had a tough day.

The iShares Dow Jones US Consumer Services Index Fund (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/iyc#NYSE">IYC</a>) will be on to watch in the coming weeks.

Leveraged play of the day: ProShares UltraShort Oil &amp; Gas (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/dug#NYSE">DUG</a>).

Emerging markets plays of the day: iShares MSCI Taiwan Index Fund (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/ewt#NYSE">EWT</a>), iShares MSCI South Korea Index Fund (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/ewy#NYSE">EWY</a>) and the Market Vectors Russia ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/rsx#NYSE">RSX</a>).

Forex play of the day: CurrencyShares British Pound Sterling Trust (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/fxb#NYSE">FXB</a>).

Bond play of the day: Market Vectors International High Yield Bond ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/ihy#NYSE">IHY</a>).

Broad U.S. Equity ETFs

New ETFs

Emerging Market ETFs

Currency ETFs

Forex

Pre-Market Outlook

CurrencyShares British Pound Sterling Trust

GDXJ

Market Vectors Russia ETF Trust Shares of Beneficial Interest

ETFs to Watch November 14, 2012 (EWT, GDXJ, IHY)

It is getting to be that time of year. The time when retail stocks come into the spotlight due to the holiday shopping season and that means plenty of investors will be giving discretionary ETFs careful consideration. That is not a bad idea, given that <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/12/11/3044945/these-etfs-could-soar-in-november">the discretionary sector is usually a strong November performer</a>. 

The sector also has a tendency to deliver solid returns to investors into the first quarter as well. Speaking of returns, not all discretionary ETFs are created equal, something S&amp;P Capital IQ points out in a recent research note.

"Thus far in 2012, some of the best performing sub-industries in the consumer discretionary sector are cable &amp; satellite, homebuilding, household appliances and Internet retail. All of these are up more than 30% this year. In contrast, auto parts &amp; equipment, casino &amp; gaming, footwear and restaurants are all in the red," according to the note.

In other words, discretionary ETFs with large weights to stocks such as Amazon (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/amzn#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>) and Comcast (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/cmcsa#NASDAQ">CMCSA</a>) have performed well, but those performances have been hampered by exposure to stock such as Las Vegas Sands (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/lvs#NYSE">LVS</a>) and AutoZone (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/azo#NYSE">AZO</a>).

"For one of the best performing groups, homebuilding, there is a negative fundamental outlook," S&amp;P Capital IQ notes. "Meanwhile, two of the largest sub-industries, movies &amp; entertainment and cable &amp; satellite, have
neutral outlooks."

Home to 82 stocks, the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/xly#NYSE">XLY</a>) is the largest discretionary ETF by assets with $3.35 billion. Comcast, Amazon and Priceline (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/pcln#NASDAQ">PCLN</a>) combine for about 15 percent of that fund's weight. By comparison, Nike and five auto-related retailers combine for less of XLY's than Comcast alone. XLY garnered a Marketweight rating from S&amp;P.

The $311.1 million iShares Dow Jones U.S. Consumer Services Sector Index Fund (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/iyc#NYSE">IYC</a>) is a standout among discretionary ETFs, according to S&amp;P. The firm rated IYC Overweight. Comcast, Amazon and eBay (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/ebay#NASDAQ">EBAY</a>) combine for 12.3 percent of the ETF's weight. Although IYC is home to almost 190 stocks, that broad lineup includes just six auto-related names and only token exposure to casino names. Combined, Las Vegas Sands, Wynn Resorts (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/wynn#NASDAQ">WYNN</a>) and MGM International (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/mgm#NYSE">MGM</a>) represent less than three percent of IYC's weight.

The Market Weight-rated Vanguard Consumer Discretionary ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/vcr#NYSE">VCR</a>) devotes just 2.3 percent of its weight to auto retailers and 2.4 percent of its weight to casino names. Conversely, cable and Internet retail stocks combine for 18 percent of the fund's weight. 

Among the trio of discretionary ETFs highlighted by S&amp;P, the leader in year-to-date returns is IYC. Up 18.6 percent this year, the iShares fund nudges VCR and its 18.4 percent gain for top honors among major discretionary ETFs. IYC has also been significantly less volatile than XLY and VCR. IYC's year-to-date volatility is 12.5 percent compared to 14 percent for XLY and 14.7 percent for VCR. 

IYC is the most expensive of the trio in terms of fees at 0.47 percent per year. XLY is the cheapest with an annual expense ratio of 0.18 percent. VCR charges 0.19 percent.

For more on ETFs, click <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/etfs">here</a>.

CMCSA

EBAY

PCLN

WYNN

Discretionary ETFs: Same Sector, Different Returns

For all the chatter regarding a slowing U.S. economy, the consumer, two-thirds of this country's GDP, has been strong in 2012. Consumer strength is all the more impressive when factoring in a tight presidential election and the possibility of a fiscal cliff. 

Even with those issues in mind, the consumer has chugged along, helping boost the fortunes of consumer discretionary ETFs in the process. Although some of these funds have run far enough fast enough that calling them overbought is not entirely inaccurate, the holiday shopping season will be here before investors know it and that could provide another lift to discretionary ETFs.

"In this country, most consumers prefer to spend rather than save, and this tends to ring even more true over the holiday season," S&amp;P Capital IQ said in a research note. "The International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) expects holiday chain store sales to increase 3.0%. The National Retail Federation (NRF), which includes online sales in its estimate, is projecting a 4.1% increase for the traditional November-December time period. This is higher than the 10-year average holiday sales increase of 3.5%, and is the most optimistic forecast that the NRF has released since the recession."

As S&amp;P Capital IQ notes, retail stocks follow the broader market higher in the October through March time frame with March and February ranking as two of the best three months in which to own retail names. 

"Given the historical data, it appears that now is a relatively good time to shop for some retail stocks. Of course, past
performance is no guarantee of future results, and if the holiday shopping season falls short of expectations, Q4 results may disappoint (and the stocks could suffer)," the firm said in the note.

In the note, S&amp;P rated three discretionary ETFs, applying an Overweight rating to the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/xly#NYSE">XLY</a>) and Market-weight ratings to the iShares Dow Jones US Consumer Services Index Fund (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/iyc#NYSE">IYC</a>) and the Vanguard Consumer Discretionary ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/vcr#NYSE">VCR</a>).

With $3.94 billion in assets under management and an expense ratio of 0.18 percent, XLY is the largest and least expensive discretionary ETF on the market. XLY has outperformed both its Lipper peers and the S&amp;P 500 over the past 1-year, 3-year, 5-year and 10-year periods, with significant outperformance versus its peers over the 3-year period (19.9% vs. 16.2%), according to S&amp;P. 

XLY's top-10 holdings include Comcast (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/cmcsa#NASDAQ">CMCSA</a>), McDonald's (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/mcd#NYSE">MCD</a>), Home Depot (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/hd#NYSE">HD</a>) and Amazon (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/amzn#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>).

The Marketweight-rated iShares Dow Jones U.S. Consumer Services Sector Index Fund is home to $320.6 million in AUM and charges 0.47 percent per year. Top-10 holdings in that ETF include Wal-Mart (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/wmt#NYSE">WMT</a>), McDonald's, Home Depot and Amazon. IYC is up 23.1 percent year-to-date.

The Vanguard Consumer Discretionary is only slightly more expensive than XLY with fees of 0.19 and its top-10 holdings are similar. Those include Comcast, McDonald's, Home Depot, Amazon and Walt Disney (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/dis#NYSE">DIS</a>). Over the past five years, XLY has outpaced VCR, but since early 2004, the Vanguard fund has come out on top.

For more on discretionary and retail ETFs, click <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/12/10/2974263/resilient-consumer-good-for-some-etfs-s-p-says">here</a>.

Econ #s

Economics

S&P Likes XLY, Tepid on Rival ETFs

지난주 미국 투자자들은 소비자물가지수(CPI)가 3%로 몇 달 동안 가장 높은 인플레이션 수치 중 하나를 기록해 충격을 받았다. CPI는 2022년 9%를 돌파한 이후 꾸준히 하락해 왔으며, 시장은 연말까지 연준의 2% 목표치에 근접할 것으로 예상했다.
그러나 이렇게 높은 CPI 수치는 몇 가지 의문을 제기한다. 이러한 일회성 효과는 계절적 요인에 의한 것일까? 아니면 소비자들이 잠재적인 관세에 대해 미리 움직이고 있는 것일까? 아니면 식량과 에너지와 같은 특정 요소가 새로운 인플레이션 물결의 경고 신호를 보내고 있는 것일까?
한 번의 높은 CPI 수치로 경각심을 불러일으키기 어렵지만, 투자자와 소비자들은 경계심을 갖게 되었다. 이전에 기록했던 CPI 9%라는 수치의 상처는 여전히 모든 사람의 마음에 생생하게 남아 있으며, 몇 번 더 높은 수치가 나온다면 2025년의 금리인하 희망이 사라질 수 있다. 인플레이션이 다시 시작되면 일부 섹터는 다른 섹터보다 더 제대로 대비해야 한다.
인플레이션이 계속 높을 경우 피해야 할 5가지 섹터는 다음과 같다.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">소비재</h3>
코로나19 팬데믹 이후 인플레이션이 급증하자, 소비자들은 사치품과 경험보다는 필수품에 집중하기 시작했다. 인플레이션은 자주 구매하지 않거나 더 저렴한 대체품이 있는 소비재 부문의 기업에 타격을 입힌다. 또한 구매력을 약화시켜 가처분 소득을 소비재에 덜 사용한다.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="wp-image-791862" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20154223/arca-1024x420.png" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20154223/arca-1024x420.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20154223/arca-300x123.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20154223/arca-768x315.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20154223/arca.png 1309w" alt="" width="1024" height="420" /></figure>
iShares US Consumer Discretionary ETF(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IYC#NYSE">IYC</a>) 차트에 따르면 이 부문은 2021년 11월에 정점을 찍은 후 거의 3년 동안 새로운 최고치를 기록하지 못했다.  CPI가 2%에 가까워지면서 ETF는 지난 12개월 동안 28% 상승했지만, 새로운 물결이 특히 자동차 제조업체, 주택 건설업체, 여행사, 명품 의류 브랜드와 같은 업종에 타격을 줄 수 있다. 향후 몇 달 동안 인플레이션이 계속 상승한다면, 크루즈 회사, 호텔, 전문 소매업체와 같은 주식에 대한 노출을 줄이는 것을 고려해야 할 것이다.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">부동산 투자신탁(REITs)</h3>
높은 배당금으로 인해, 때때로 리츠(REITs)는 인플레이션 헤지로 간주되기도 한다. 그러나 인플레이션은 금리 상승을 통해 차입 비용을 증가시키는 경향이 있으며, 리츠와 같이 부채가 많은 기업은 활동 자금 조달을 위해 더 많은 비용을 지불하는 것을 좋아하지 않는다. 차입 비용이 상승하면, 리츠는 확장을 늦추거나 배당금 지급을 중단할 수 있다. 높은 금리는 더 나은 금융 옵션을 기다리는 주택 구매자들을 시장에서 배제시킬 수도 있다.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="wp-image-791863" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20154234/van-1024x420.png" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20154234/van-1024x420.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20154234/van-300x123.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20154234/van-768x315.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20154234/van.png 1309w" alt="" width="1024" height="420" /></figure>
Vanguard Real Estate ETF(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VNQ#NYSE">VNQ</a>)는 2021년 12월부터 2023년 10월까지 37%의 손실을 입었다. 이는 리츠가 높은 CPI 수치와 연준의 금리 인상에 영향을 받는다는 것을 보여 준다. 인플레이션이 계속해서 높은 수준을 유지한다면, 공실이 많은 부동산을 소유하고 있거나 침체된 시장에 위치한 부동산 투자신탁이 가장 큰 위험에 처할 것이다.
상업용 리츠는 특히 위험에 노출되어 있다. 기업들이 인원을 늘리는 경우가 많기 때문에, 그리고 대기업에서 재택근무가 점점 더 표준화되고 있기 때문이다. 일부 기업은 직원들을 다시 사무실로 복귀시키려고 노력하고 있다. 리츠를 조사할 때는 부채 수준이 높고, 부동산 포트폴리오가 좋지 않으며, 배당금 지급 비율이 높은 기업은 피해야 한다.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">생명공학</h3>
생명공학(또는 바이오테크) 섹터는 언제나 투자하기에 불안정하며, 높은 인플레이션과 불확실성의 시기는 그 사실을 몇 배 더 악화시킬 수 있다. 생명공학 혁신은 비용이 많이 들고 시간이 많이 걸리며, 그 결과는 종종 몇 달 또는 몇 년 후에 나온다. 투자자들이 단기적인 사고방식을 채택할 때, 오랜 기간의 테스트와 실험이 필요한 생명공학 같은 섹터는 인기가 떨어진다.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="wp-image-791864" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20154243/pdr-1024x420.png" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20154243/pdr-1024x420.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20154243/pdr-300x123.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20154243/pdr-768x315.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20154243/pdr.png 1309w" alt="" width="1024" height="420" /></figure>
생명공학 섹터는 2022년의 약세장에서 아직 회복되지 않았고, 지속적인 인플레이션과 높은 금리는 궁지에 몰린 이 산업에 더 많은 문제를 야기할 수 있다. 생명공학 기업들은 연구개발에 막대한 초기 투자가 필요하기 때문에 마치 개가 스테이크를 먹는 것처럼 자본을 소모한다.
초기 단계의 많은 생명공학 기업들은 매출이 전혀 없고, 부채에 의존하여 간신히 버티고 있다. 공급 비용과 자금 조달 비용이 상승하면, 이런 회사들은 기존 주주들의 지분을 희석시키면서, 원치 않는 것보다 더 많은 주식을 팔아야 하는 경우가 많다. 투자자들이 불확실한 시기에 위험을 줄이려고 한다는 사실과 함께, 2025년을 시작하는 생명공학 섹터는 위태로워 보인다.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">산업재</h3>
생명공학과 마찬가지로, 인플레이션이 높을 때 산업 부문은 두 가지 중요한 역풍을 작용한다. 바로 긴 기간과 자본 집약적 프로젝트이다. 산업 기업은 주택을 짓고, 중장비를 생산하고, 귀중한 원자재를 운송하는데 이 모든 것에는 많은 사전 계획과 자본이 필요하다.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="wp-image-791865" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20154252/spdr-ser-1024x420.png" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20154252/spdr-ser-1024x420.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20154252/spdr-ser-300x123.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20154252/spdr-ser-768x315.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20154252/spdr-ser.png 1309w" alt="" width="1024" height="420" /></figure>
SDPR Sector Select Industrial Fund(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLI#NYSE">XLI</a>)는 2022년과 2023년 내내 좁은 범위에서 거래된 후 반등세를 보였다. 그러나 인플레이션도 반등한다면 이 부문의 기업들은 더 높은 자본 비용을 지불해야 하고 프로젝트를 중단해야 할 수도 있다. 산업 부문은 주기성이 매우 높으며, 경기 둔화는 종종 다른 시장 부문으로 파급된다.
또한, 산업 회사들은 많은 인력을 고용하고 있으며, 운영 자본에 덜 의존하는 분야보다 가격 결정력이 약한 경우가 많다. 위에서 언급한 바와 같이, 인플레이션이나 금리가 높을 때 비용이 많이 들고 시간이 많이 걸리는 것은 좋지 않은 조합이다.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">유틸리티</h3>
일반적으로 유틸리티는 시장 하락 시 안전한 분야로 여겨진다. 낮은 변동성과 안정적인 배당금으로 인해 약세장에서도 안전한 피난처로 여겨진다. 그러나 일반적인 시장 하락에는 높은 금리와 3% 이상의 CPI가 수반되지 않으며, 이러한 상황에서 유틸리티가 항상 가장 안전한 피난처는 아니다. SDPR Sector Select Utilities ETF(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLU#NYSE">XLU</a>)의 성과는 약세장이 항상 해당 분야에 호재가 되는 것은 아니라는 것을 보여 준다.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="wp-image-791866" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20154259/spdr-util-1024x420.png" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20154259/spdr-util-1024x420.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20154259/spdr-util-300x123.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20154259/spdr-util-768x315.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20154259/spdr-util.png 1309w" alt="" width="1024" height="420" /></figure>
유틸리티의 매력은 자본 가치 상승이 아니라 분기 배당금에 있다. 배당금을 통한 소득은 많은 투자자들에게 채권과 유사한 수단을 만들어 준다. 많은 투자자들이 유틸리티와 기술주 같은 위험성이 높은 주식을 함께 매입함으로써 성장과 소득을 모두 얻을 수 있는 기회를 얻는다. 그러나 인플레이션이 상승하면 금리도 상승하게 되고, 높은 금리는 미국 재무부 채권과 기업 부채와 같은 실제 채권의 매력을 더해줄 것이다.
투자자들이 미국 재무부 채권에서 유사한 수익률을 얻을 수 있다고 가정해 보자. 이 경우, 그들은 당연히 쿠폰 지급을 고정하고 기간이 종료되면 자본 수익을 보장하는 재무부 채권에 기대를 걸 것이다. 또한, 공공시설은 부채가 많고 엄격한 규제 심사를 받는다. 규제 지연은 가격 인상이 종종 법에 의해 승인되어야 하기 때문에 이러한 회사의 수익에 타격을 줄 수 있다.
이미지 출처: Shutterstock
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