에 대한 최신 뉴스 Lundin Mining (OTC:LUNMF) 주식

Lundin Mining Corp is a diversified Canadian base metals mining company with operations in Brazil, Chile, Portugal, Sweden, and the United States of America, producing copper, zinc, gold, and nickel. Its material mineral properties include Candelaria, Chapada, Eagle, Zinkgruvanand, Caserones, Neves-Corvo. The majority of the revenue is from Copper.

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금속 시장이 변동성을 겪고 있는 가운데 &#34;V자형 회복&#34;에 대한 낙관론이 확산되고 있다. JP모건의 애널리스트인 도미닉 오케인(Dominic O&#39;Kane)과 패트릭 존스(Patrick Jones)는 예상되는 중국의 재정 부양책이 이 부문의 전환점이 될 수 있다고 제안한다.

금, 광업 주식들은 &#39;V자형 회복&#39;을 할 것인가? 분석가들은 &#39;과매도된 광산주들&#39;을 추천

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전 세계가 전기화된 미래로 나아가면서 구리 시장은 중요한 기로에 서 있다. JP모건의 애널리스트인 패트릭 존스(Patrick Jones), 그렉 시어러(Greg Shearer) 및 빌 피터슨(Bill Peterson)의 통찰은 구리 가격에 대한 단기적인 장애물과 전기차 및 공급 동태의 변화에 의해 주도되는 화려한 장기 전망을 제시한다.

구리의 고공행진: EV, 신기술이 이 금속의 다음 대혁명을 이끌 수 있을까?

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호주의 다국적 광산업체인 BHP 그룹(NYSE:BHP)가 경쟁사인 앵글로 아메리칸(OTC:NGLOY)에 제출한 약 400억 달러 입찰은 이 회사를 인수하기에 충분하지 않을 수 있다. 왜냐하면 구리 자산에 대한 전 세계적 쟁탈전 속에서 다른 다각화된 광산업체들이 아마도 경쟁 입찰을 할 것이기 때문이다.

구리는 HOT한 상품: BHP의 &#39;인수 제안&#39; 후 앵글로 아메리칸에 대한 입찰 경쟁 예상

LUNDIN MINING CORP by Lundin Mining Corp.

Lundin Mining Corp

Copper prices have surged above $10,000 per metric ton on the London Metal Exchange (LME) for the first time since October. On LME, copper has gained 14% year-to-date, while <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/copper" rel="noreferrer noopener">U.S. copper futures</a> surged 26%.
The price differential widened to $1,200 per metric ton, creating arbitrage opportunities. Since copper futures result in physical delivery on maturity, buyers have scrambled to move supplies into the U.S.
Between 100,000 and 150,000 metric tons of copper will arrive in the U.S. in the coming weeks, potentially surpassing the monthly import record of 136,951 tons set in January 2022.
Leading commodity traders, including Trafigura, Glencore, and Gunvor, have aggressively rerouted shipments, with additional warehouse space being secured in New Orleans and Baltimore to handle the influx.
Still, the 12% differential between the domestic and foreign copper prices is around half of anticipated copper tariffs.
On February 25, President Donald Trump signed an executive action directing the U.S. Commerce Department to investigate copper imports on national security grounds. Leading institutions, including Goldman Sachs and Citigroup, responded, predicting a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/guidance/25/03/44271394/goldman-sachs-sees-copper-imports-increasing-tariffs-as-fcx-positions-to-benefit" rel="noreferrer noopener">25% tariff</a> on imported copper by year-end.
"Copper's rise is being driven solely by supply concerns surrounding the potential for universal tariffs to be placed on all imports of copper into the US," Natalie Scott-Gray, a senior metals demand analyst at StoneX, <a target="_blank" href="https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1902053890079535258" rel="noreferrer noopener">said</a>, warning about the high reliance on foreign copper.
According to ING, in 2024, the U.S. imported <a target="_blank" href="https://think.ing.com/articles/industrial-metals-monthly-us-copper-tariff-risks-pull-more-metal-to-the-us/" rel="noreferrer noopener">850,000 tons</a> of refined copper, excluding scrap. Chile was the largest supplier, accounting for 41% of imports, while 27% came from Canada.
Despite efforts to increase local production, output has steadily declined, falling 3% in 2024 after an 11% drop in 2023. Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FCX#NYSE">FCX</a>), the largest U.S. producer, has faced declining ore grades, environmental regulations, and permitting challenges, limiting the ability to ramp up domestic supply.
The firm's CEO, Kathleen Quirk, has called for Trump's administration to classify copper as a critical mineral, anticipating a $500 million windfall from tax credits tied to the Inflation Reduction Act. Quirk sees Freeport's domestic production growing by 8%, targeting an output of 225,000 metric tons, none of which will be exported.
Read Next:
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/03/44375055/trump-turns-to-beautiful-clean-coal-to-address-domestic-energy-demand" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Trump Turns To ‘Beautiful, Clean Coal' To Address Domestic Energy Demand</a></li>
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Copper Surges As Arbitrage Opportunity Drives US Imports

Editor&#8217;s Note: The headline has been updated for clarity.
Goldman Sachs forecasts a surge in U.S. copper imports soon, driven by expectations of tariffs from President Donald Trump's <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/donald-trump" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">administration</a>.
Per Reuters' <a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/goldman-sachs-anticipates-surge-us-copper-net-imports-2025-03-11/" rel="noreferrer noopener">report</a>, the investment bank expects a 25% duty on copper imports by year's end, incentivizing stockpiling to frontrun the legislative. As a result, U.S. net copper imports could surge by 50-100%, adding between 200,000 to 300,000 metric tons to domestic inventories by Q3.
If this projection materializes, U.S. copper stockpiles could swell from 95,000 tons to as much as 400,000 tons or around half of global reported inventories – leaving the international market at historically low inventory levels.
For 2025, Goldman sees a 180,000-ton global copper deficit as growing demand for electrification, economic stimulus measures in China, and slow mine growth materialize. The bank sees the supply imbalance more pronounced in the second half of the year as a catalyst for higher prices.
"We maintain our forecast that the LME three-month price will average $10,200 per ton in Q3 2024 and see the impact of inventory dislocation predominantly in timespreads," the bank noted. Current three-month copper contracts on the London Metal Exchange were trading at $9,528.50 per ton as of Wednesday morning.
The largest U.S. copper producer, Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FCX#NYSE">FCX</a>), could benefit from this scenario, particularly if copper is classified as a critical mineral.
In a recent <a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/ceraweek-freeport-sees-500-million-annual-boost-if-trump-declares-copper-2025-03-10/" rel="noreferrer noopener">interview</a>, CEO Kathleen Quirk expressed optimism that the Trump administration could make this move soon, unlocking the federal tax incentives to support domestic production.
"Having the incentives and clarity around those would be a big plus for the domestic copper industry," Quirk said. Such a designation would enable Freeport to claim more than $500 million annually in tax credits tied to the Inflation Reduction Act.
Freeport-McMoRan operates seven copper mines across the U.S. and one of two domestic copper smelters. The firm doesn't export any domestically produced copper, making it a key supplier in any scenario restricting imports.
However, production costs in the U.S. are higher than in Freeport's international operations due to lower ore grades, making policy support a crucial factor.
Per the <a target="_blank" href="https://mms.businesswire.com/media/20250122679192/en/2360933/1/FCX_250123_4Q_2024_Earnings_Release.pdf" rel="noreferrer noopener">latest guidance</a>, the company expects its U.S. copper production to increase by 8% in 2025, with further growth in subsequent years. Opportunities include doubling the concentrator capacity at its Bagdad operation in Arizona, which could add 200-250 million pounds of copper annually.
Quirk also hinted at a possible <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/03/44216408/dr-congo-explores-a-minerals-for-security-deal-with-the-us" rel="noreferrer noopener">return to the Democratic Republic of Congo</a>, where Freeport previously owned the Kisanfu copper-cobalt project before selling it to China Molybdenum in 2020. "We would be interested in going back for the right opportunity," she said, adding that Freeport would seek to be the operator of any project if it re-enters the DRC.
Price Watch: Freeport-McMoRan has declined 5.28% year-to-date. The stock is up 1.56% to $36.44 premarket at the last check on Wednesday.
Read Next:
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/03/44243837/iron-ore-production-to-accelerate-until-2030-study-says" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Iron Ore Production To Accelerate Until 2030, Study Says</a></li>
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Goldman Sachs Sees Copper Imports Increasing Ahead Of Tariffs As FCX Positions To Benefit (UPDATED)

Copper investors looking for a lifeline may have to wait. JPMorgan analysts warn that a perfect storm of trade tariffs, geopolitical risks and AI disruption fears is weighing on <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/copper">copper-exposed stocks</a>.
The firm is staying Underweight on Antofagasta PLC (OTCPK:ANFGF) and Boliden AB (OTCPK:BDNNY), while keeping Anglo American PLC (OTCQX:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAUKF#OTCQX">AAUKF</a>) (OTCQX:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NGLOY#OTCQX">NGLOY</a>) at Neutral with a Negative Catalyst Watch.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">US Tariffs Add More Pressure To Copper Miners</h2>
The latest blow? The U.S. administration's decision to impose tariffs—25% on Mexican and Canadian imports, 10% on Chinese goods and potential tariffs on the EU.
While not the extreme 60% tariffs some feared, the move is expected to hit EMEA mining and metals (M&amp;M) stocks hard. JPMorgan remains cautious, saying the sector needs either a de-escalation in trade tensions or a fresh round of China stimulus to see any upside.
Read Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/asset-sales/25/01/43250305/newmont-completes-425-million-asset-sale-focuses-on-british-columbia-growth">Newmont Completes $425 Million Asset Sale, Focuses On British Columbia Growth</a>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">AI, Geopolitical Risks Weigh On Copper Outlook</h2>
Meanwhile, AI-driven copper demand fears have surfaced with DeepSeek's latest tech developments. But JPMorgan isn't buying into the long-term disruption narrative. The analysts argue that data centers will continue fueling copper demand, projecting growth from 400kt in 2025 to 700kt by 2030—hardly a demand collapse.
The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) adds another layer of risk. While the recent surge in violence is far from the country's copper-producing heartland, the unrest underscores the fragility of global supply. With the DRC now accounting for 13% of global copper output, any prolonged instability could rattle the market.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Where To Find Value In The Metals Space</h2>
For now, JPMorgan sees better value in EMEA gold miners like Fresnillo PLC (OTCPK:FNLPF), Hochschild Mining PLC (OTCQX:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/HCHDF#OTCQX">HCHDF</a>) and AngloGold Ashanti PLC (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AU#NYSE">AU</a>), as well as base metals picks Lundin Mining Corp (OTCPK:LUNMF) and Norsk Hydro ASA (OTCQX:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NHYDY#OTCQX">NHYDY</a>). 
But for copper bulls, it may be a long wait for the clouds to clear.
Read Next: 
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/guidance/25/01/43053046/lundin-mining-caps-record-2024-with-transformative-growth">Lundin Mining Caps Record 2024 with &#8216;Transformative&#8217; Growth</a></li>
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Copper Stocks On Shaky Ground, JPMorgan Analysts Say: Tariffs, DeepSeek Cloud Outlook

Lundin Mining (OTCPK: LUNMF) reported record copper and zinc production in 2024, capping a year with strategic expansions and portfolio optimization, particularly regarding <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/copper" rel="noreferrer noopener">copper</a>.
Copper production reached 369,067 tons, while zinc production hit 191,704 tons, achieving record highs. Gold output was 158,436 ounces, and nickel production at the Eagle Mine totaled 7,486 tons, meeting or exceeding all guidance targets.
"We announced three strategic transactions while maintaining operational performance to meet production guidance on a consolidated basis for copper and gold and within revised guidance for zinc and nickel. The Company was able to achieve record production for copper and zinc during the year. This is a testament to the great effort and focus of the entire team at Lundin Mining," <a target="_blank" href="https://lundinmining.com/news/lundin-mining-announces-record-production-results-123181/" rel="noreferrer noopener">said</a> President and CEO Jack Lundin – calling 2024 "a transformative year."
The acquisition of an additional 19% stake in the Caserones mine in Chile expanded Lundin's ownership to 70%, adding 24,000 tons of annual attributable copper production. Caserones and the flagship Candelaria mine were the company's top performers, with Candelaria achieving its best second-half results in 30 years, producing nearly 100,000 tons of copper during this period.
On January 15, Lundin formally finalized a partnership with BHP to acquire Filo Corp. and established Vicuña, a joint venture to develop the Filo del Sol and Josemaria projects. Filo del Sol, located in the Vicuña district, is a high-sulphidation epithermal deposit with significant copper, gold, and silver resources.
The site holds a probable estimate of 2,22 million pounds of copper, 2,86 million ounces of gold, and 133,33 million ounces of silver. The estimated life of the open-pit mine is 13 years, with a potential for further expansion.
For 2025, Lundin forecasts copper production of 303,000–330,000 tons, gold output of 135,000–150,000 ounces, and nickel production of 8,000–11,000 tons. Sustaining capital expenditures are $530 million, with $205 million allocated to expansion projects. Exploration spending will focus on in-mine and near-mine targets, with a $40-million budget.
In December, the firm announced a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/24/12/42385859/lundin-exits-europe-for-15-billion-turns-focus-to-south-america" rel="noreferrer noopener">$1.52 billion sale</a> of its Neves-Corvo and Zinkgruvan operations in Europe to Boliden AB. The sale marks an exit from the family's ancestral region (Sweden) to focus on projects that will drive long-term growth.
Read Next:&nbsp;
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/price-target/25/01/43013685/research-firms-and-industry-insiders-clash-copper-agree-on-trumps-risk" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Research Firms And Industry Insiders Clash On Copper, Agree On Trump's Risk</a></li>
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Lundin Mining Caps Record 2024 with 'Transformative' Growth

As metals markets weather volatility, optimism for a &#8220;V-shaped recovery&#8221; is gaining traction. JPMorgan analysts Dominic O&#8217;Kane and Patrick Jones suggest <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/asia/24/12/42692036/billionaire-investors-michael-burry-david-tepper-could-benefit-from-chinas-stimulus-measures">China's expected fiscal stimulus</a> could be the turning point for the sector. 
With metal prices poised for a rebound, they urge investors to &#8220;accumulate positions in oversold miners&#8221; like Anglo American PLC (OTCQX:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NGLOY#OTCQX">NGLOY</a>) (OTCQX:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAUKF#OTCQX">AAUKF</a>), First Quantum Minerals Ltd (OTCPK:FQVLF) and Lundin Mining Corp (OTCPK:LUNMF).
Exchange-traded funds like the SPDR S&amp;P Metals &amp; Mining ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XME#NYSE">XME</a>), the iShares MSCI Global Metals &amp; Mining Producers ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PICK#NYSE">PICK</a>) provide diversified exposure to the metals and mining sector.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Mining Stocks Set For Revival?</h2>
The 17% decline in European metals &amp; mining stocks since late September 2024 reflects market caution amid tariff risks and US$/CNY devaluation. However, analysts see this downturn as an opportunity for strategic investment. Anglo American faces near-term challenges, including $2 billion in impairments and delays in its diamond divestment strategy. Despite this, the company may emerge as an M&amp;A target post the Anglo Platinum de-merger.
Lundin Mining and Norsk Hydro ASA (OTCQX:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NHYDY#OTCQX">NHYDY</a>) stand out as resilient picks, with strong fundamentals that may help them weather tariff-related uncertainties. 
Analysts maintain a positive outlook on these names, expecting them to benefit from the broader market recovery.
Read Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/commodities/24/12/42455382/gold-to-shine-bright-in-2025-as-top-investment-bank-predicts-bullish-outlook-amid-trade-tensions">Gold To Shine Bright In 2025 As Top Investment Bank Predicts Bullish Outlook Amid Trade Tensions</a>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Gold Stocks Shine Amid Market Turbulence</h2>
Gold continues to prove its mettle as a safe-haven asset, with prices projected to rise to $2,100 per ounce. 
Stocks like AngloGold Ashanti PLC (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AU#NYSE">AU</a>), Hochschild Mining PLC (OTCQX:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/HCHDF#OTCQX">HCHDF</a>), and Fresnillo PLC (OTCPK:FNLPF) remain key picks by the analysts, supported by strong silver production forecasts and rising demand for precious metals.
The VanEck Gold Miners ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GDX#NYSE">GDX</a>) and the VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GDXJ#NYSE">GDXJ</a>) are popular ways to get exposure to gold miners&#8217; stocks.
The analysts highlight Fresnillo's silver production strength, placing it on a Positive Catalyst Watch.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">China's Stimulus: The Tipping Point?</h2>
All eyes are on the March 5 National People&#8217;s Congress, where China is expected to announce fiscal measures that could fuel a surge in metal prices. 
The analysts believe these moves could trigger a sharp market recovery, solidifying the case for accumulating positions in mining stocks before a potential uptrend.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">The Takeaway</h2>
As metals markets teeter on the edge of revival, accumulating oversold miners may offer strategic value ahead of a &#8220;V-shaped recovery.&#8221; 
Read Next: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs/sector-etfs/25/01/42986605/exclusive-energy-semiconductors-could-dominate-portfolios-in-2025-says-direxion-ceo" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">EXCLUSIVE: Energy, Semiconductors Could Dominate Portfolios In 2025, Says Direxion CEO</a></li>
</ul>
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Will Gold, Mining Stocks Ride A 'V-Shaped Recovery'? Analysts Say Accumulate 'Oversold Miners'

Lundin Mining (OTC:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/LUNMF#OTC">LUNMF</a>) has completed the sale of its two European mines to Swedish mining conglomerate Boliden AB (OTC:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BLIDF#OTC">BLIDF</a>) for up to $1.52 billion, dependent on future commodity prices.
The mines in question include Neves-Corvo and Zinkgruvan, operations with notable zinc production, which will enhance Boliden's status as one of the top zinc producers in the world.
"Neves-Corvo and Zinkgruvan have been foundational to Lundin Mining's growth into a global-scale, multi-asset base metals producer," <a target="_blank" href="https://lundinmining.com/news/lundin-mining-announces-sale-of-neves-corvo-and-zi-123176/" rel="noreferrer noopener">said</a> Jack Lundin, President and CEO of Lundin Mining.
The Neves-Corvo mine, located in Portugal's Iberian Pyrite Belt, has delivered 108,812 tons of zinc, 33,823 tons of copper, 6,500 tons of lead, and 1.9 million ounces of silver in 2023. Meanwhile, the Zinkgruvan mine in south-central Sweden produced 76,349 tons of zinc, 4,434 tons of copper, 26,284 tons of lead, and 2.3 million ounces of silver in the same year. Both mines are well-established operations with on-site processing facilities, making them highly attractive acquisitions for Boliden.
"Optimising these well-invested units as well as developing the feed mix to our existing smelters will create short- and long-term value for both our business areas. Going forward we will also have greater development opportunities for near-mine exploration in these attractive mining regions," said Boliden's President Mikael Staffas.
The transaction terms include contingent payments tied to future commodity prices. Up to $100 million is linked to copper and zinc prices at Neves-Corvo between 2025 and 2027, while up to $50 million is dependent on zinc prices at Zinkgruvan in 2025 and 2026. The deal is expected to close by mid-2025, subject to European authorities' regulatory and merger control approvals.
By selling these assets, the Lundin family has left their ancestral homeland of Sweden and Europe, looking toward South America as the primary focus of operation.
"The sale will further strengthen our balance sheet to support the Company's growing portfolio in South America and enable management to concentrate our focus in an area which will provide the greatest long-term value for our shareholders," Lundin noted.
Earlier this year, the company announced a joint venture with BHP, acquiring Filo Corp, owner of the Filo del Sol project. This lucrative copper-gold-silver deposit has a resource estimate of at least 2.2 billion pounds of copper, 2.86 million ounces of gold, and 133.33 million ounces of silver.
Read Next:
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/24/12/42367959/newmont-exits-ccv-with-275m-sale-bolsters-focus-on-core-gold-and-copper-assets" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Newmont Sells Colorado Mine For $275 Million, Refocuses On Gold, Copper</a></li>
</ul>
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Lundin Exits Europe For $1.5 Billion, Turns Focus To South America

Summary of the Transaction
<ul>
<li>Boliden has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire the mines Somincor-Sociedade Mineira de Neves-Corvo, S.A. ("Neves-Corvo") and Zinkgruvan Mining Aktiebolag ("Zinkgruvan") for an upfront cash consideration corresponding to USD 1,300 m plus a contingent payment up to USD 150 m, on a cash and debt-free basis (the "Transaction").</li>
<li>The Transaction has a strong industrial logic and strategic fit, complementing current&nbsp;Boliden operations with two well-invested mines. Following the Transaction, zinc and copper concentrate production will increase from 35% to 70% of zinc smelting capacity and 30% to 40% of copper smelting capacity.</li>
<li>The Transaction will lead to a significant increase in production of metals in concentrate in Business Area Mines, by 95% for zinc and 43% for copper, based on 2023 production figures.</li>
<li>The Transaction is expected to be immediately accretive to&nbsp;Boliden's earnings per share from completion of the Transaction and contribute with &gt;10% to Cash EPS1).</li>
<li>The EBITDA contribution from the&nbsp;Neves-Corvo and Zinkgruvan mines over the next five years is estimated to amount to USD 300-350 m annually, assuming consensus prices and terms.</li>
<li>The upfront cash consideration will be fully financed through a bridge loan, which is expected to be refinanced through a share issue corresponding to approximately half of the bridge loan (the "Share Issue"), and the remaining amount in medium and long-term debt financing. The Share Issue will be based on an authorization from a general meeting or subject to approval by a general meeting. Boliden intends to explore options to conduct the Share Issue either as a directed share issue or as a fully underwritten rights issue. The Share Issue is expected to be carried out during the first half of 2025; however no decision has been taken at this time and the timing of the Share Issue is subject to, among other, prevailing market conditions at the time of the Share Issue.</li>
<li>Completion of the Transaction is expected during mid-2025, subject to regulatory approvals, including merger control filings and approvals and other customary closing conditions.</li>
</ul>

Lundin Mining Sells Neves-Corvo And Zinkgruvan Mines To Boliden AB For Up To $1.52B

As the world hurtles toward an electrified future, the copper market <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/copper">stands at a crossroads</a>. 
Insights from JPMorgan analysts Patrick Jones, Greg Shearer and Bill Peterson paint a complex picture: short-term hurdles for copper prices, but a glittering long-term outlook driven by electric vehicles and evolving supply dynamics.
This could seem as good news for those invested in United States Copper Index Fund ETV (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CPER#NYSE">CPER</a>), Global X Copper Miners ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/COPX#NYSE">COPX</a>), iShares Copper and Metals Mining ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ICOP#NASDAQ">ICOP</a>) for the long-term.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">EV Boom: Supercharging Copper Demand</h2>
The electric vehicle revolution is set to electrify copper demand. JPMorgan predicts copper usage in EVs will more than double from 1.4 million metric tons in 2023 to 3 million by 2030. While some worry that technological advances like thinner copper anode foils could dampen demand, the analysts argue otherwise. 
Larger EV sizes and a pivot toward lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) batteries — which are more copper-intensive — are expected to drive long-term growth.
Read Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/10/41337566/trump-2-0-trade-policies-could-hit-copper-stocks-harder-warns-jpmorgan-analyst">Trump 2.0 Trade Policies Could Hit Copper Stocks Harder, Warns JPMorgan Analyst</a>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">New Technologies: Leaching A Lifeline?</h2>
Leaching technologies are generating buzz, but can they revolutionize copper supply? Not yet, say the analysts. While projects from major miners like Freeport-McMoRan Inc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FCX#NYSE">FCX</a>) and BHP Group Ltd (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BHP#NYSE">BHP</a>) are on the horizon, these advancements are unlikely to offset supply declines before 2030.
At best, leaching could add 550,000 metric tons annually, just 2% of global supply.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Scrap &amp; Recycling: The Unsung Hero?</h2>
Recycling is a crucial cog in the copper machine, accounting for about 17% of refined supply in 2024, up from 14% in 2020. JPMorgan forecasts scrap supply will grow by 5-6% annually, faster than historical rates, yet insufficient to bridge the long-term deficit. Recycling alone won't solve copper's supply crunch.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Near-Term Risks, Long-Term Rewards</h2>
JPMorgan warns of near-term risks from macroeconomic pressures, particularly a potential devaluation of the Chinese yuan to 7.8 to 8.0 per U.S. dollar. This could lead to a 12-15% dip in copper prices, presenting headwinds for equities. However, the analysts remain bullish on the long-term trajectory, underpinned by a looming supply-demand gap.
Their picks? 
Lundin Mining Corp (OTCPK: LUNMF) leads in EMEA, while Teck Resources Ltd (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TECK#NYSE">TECK</a>) tops the Americas. Asia-Pacific favorites include Zijin Mining and Merdeka Copper, with caution advised on Jiangxi Copper and Sandfire Resources.
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</ul>
Image: Shutterstock

Copper's High-Wire Act: Can EVs, New Tech Power The Metal's Next Big Surge?

BHP (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BHP#NYSE">BHP</a>) has backtracked on remarks by its Chairman, Ken Mackenzie, about "moving on "from its <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/large-cap/24/05/39068033/time-runs-out-for-bhp-deal-49-billion-acquisition-of-anglo-american-proves-too-complex-to-solve" rel="noreferrer noopener">failed $49 billion bid</a> for Anglo American (OTCQX:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAUKF#OTCQX">AAUKF</a>).
During BHP's annual shareholder meeting in Brisbane, MacKenzie had suggested that the Anglo American acquisition was a "nice to have, not a must-do" and indicated that BHP had put the deal behind them, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/oct/30/mining-firm-bhp-says-it-has-moved-on-from-failed-anglo-american-bid" rel="noreferrer noopener">reported</a> The Guardian.
"We thought there was an opportunity here to create something unique and special&#8230; But Anglo American shareholders had a different view, and so they moved on. And quite frankly, so have we," he stated.
However, BHP issued a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bhp.com/news/media-centre/releases/2024/10/statement-regarding-anglo-american-plc" rel="noreferrer noopener">statement</a> clarifying that these comments were not intended to be a formal withdrawal from pursuing the deal under U.K. takeover regulations.
Following a discussion with the U.K. Takeover Panel, BHP confirmed that the panel would not treat MacKenzie's remarks as an official "no offer" statement, meaning the door remains open for a potential future bid.
Initially <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/24/04/38423994/worlds-largest-miner-bhp-bids-to-takeover-anglo-american-as-hunt-for-resources-intensify" rel="noreferrer noopener">proposed in April</a>, BHP's bid for Anglo American sought access to Anglo's lucrative copper assets in South America – as the price for the metal crucial in the green energy transition surged toward its <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/24/05/38901984/silver-rockets-to-11-year-highs-copper-hits-record-peak-gold-approaches-historic-" rel="noreferrer noopener">yearly high in May</a>.
Despite the strategic fit, the deal faced hurdles, particularly concerning Anglo's South African assets. BHP hesitated to retain those due to regulatory complexities and economic risks associated with South Africa's business environment.
Unable to secure the deal, BHP turned to its key assets, looking to expand its Olympic Dam operation in South Australia and the Escondida mine in Chile; however, their domestic operations face challenges that could drive higher costs.
Australia's mining industry has been grappling with high labor expenses as worker shortages and competition drive wages upward. New labor laws, including the "Same Job, Same Pay" initiative, have raised concerns over their potential to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/large-cap/24/07/39647424/bhp-cuts-employee-incentives-misses-performance-goals" rel="noreferrer noopener">increase operational costs</a>.&nbsp;
At the Brisbane meeting, labor issues were a key focus, with hundreds of workers protesting BHP's stance on the new legislation and its effect on profitability.
Still, the company managed to increase its footprint in South America. In July, it <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/24/07/40031488/bhp-to-unlock-south-american-copper-riches-partners-with-lundin-for-filo-acquisition" rel="noreferrer noopener">announced a bid</a> for Filo Corp (OTCQX:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FLMMF#OTCQX">FLMMF</a>). Through a 50-50 joint venture with Lundin Mining (OTC:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/LUNMF#OTC">LUNMF</a>), BHP will spend $2 billion to acquire a 50% stake in the promising Filo del Sol copper project on the Chilean-Argentine border and a 50% stake in Lundin's Josemaria project.
The mandatory standstill on a new bid for Anglo American expires on November 29.
Read Next:
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/24/10/41663633/biggest-gold-etf-posts-highest-monthly-inflows-in-2-5-years-as-investors-rush-to-" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Biggest Gold ETF Posts Highest Monthly Inflows In 2.5 Years As Investors Rush To Safe Haven Ahead Of Presidential Election</a></li>
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Photo via Shutterstock

FLMMF

BHP Backtracks Its Comments On Abandoning Anglo American Deal

Ero Copper Corp. (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ero#NYSE">ERO</a>) shares rallied 5.2% in the last trading session to close at $23.11. This move can be attributable to notable volume with a higher number of shares being traded than in a typical session. This compares to the stock&#39;s 4% gain over the past four weeks.
Ero Copper&#39;s share price has gained on the back of the surge in copper and gold prices. Copper futures for December delivery increased 3.33% in a day, closing at $4.64 per pound on Thursday as China implemented various stimulus measures to support economic growth. Copper prices have also been gaining after the Federal Reserve announced an aggressive interest cut of half a percentage point.
Gold price is currently around a record high of $2,670 per ounce as markets anticipate another rate cut in November. Risk of a broader conflict in the Middle East have also boosted prices.
This company is expected to post quarterly earnings of $0.48 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of +166.7%. Revenues are expected to be $148.8 million, up 41.4% from the year-ago quarter.
Earnings and revenue growth expectations certainly give a good sense of the potential strength in a stock, but empirical research shows that trends in earnings estimate revisions are strongly correlated with near-term stock price movements.
For Ero Copper, the consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised 10.5% lower over the last 30 days to the current level. And a negative trend in earnings estimate revisions doesn&#39;t usually translate into price appreciation. So, make sure to keep an eye on ERO going forward to see if this recent jump can turn into more strength down the road.
The stock currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
Ero Copper belongs to the Zacks Mining - Non Ferrous industry. Another stock from the same industry, Lundin Mining (OTC: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/lunmf#OTC">LUNMF</a>), closed the last trading session 4.2% higher at $10.75. Over the past month, LUNMF has returned 0.9%.
Lundin&#39;s consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming report has changed -8.7% over the past month to $0.21. Compared to the company&#39;s year-ago EPS, this represents a change of +90.9%. Lundin currently boasts a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold).
<a href="https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/2342341/ero-copper-ero-stock-jumps-5-2-will-it-continue-to-soar?cid=CS-BENZ-FT-tale_of_the_tape|daily_price_change_5%-2342341">To read this article on Zacks.com click here.</a>

Earnings

Mid Cap

Ero Copper Stock Jumps 5.2%: Will It Continue to Soar?

Despite the global copper market&#8217;s looming long-term supply deficit, talk of substitution as a savior is more smoke than fire, according to JPMorgan <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/copper">analyst Patrick Jones</a>. 
While concerns about copper being swapped out for cheaper materials have been frequent, Jones notes, &#8220;Substitution &amp; thrifting could accelerate over the medium term, especially in newer technologies such as xEVs and renewables, we do not believe it will be sufficient to fill the long-term market deficit.&#8221;
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Why It Matters: No Escape From Deficits</h2>
The energy transition has put copper in the spotlight, with demand surging due to its vital role in electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable energy infrastructure.
As Jones highlights, &#8220;xEVs typically contain 2-4x as much copper as Internal Combustion Engine vehicles,&#8221; which positions copper as a vital component for future technologies. Even though improvements in battery technology could reduce copper intensity in EVs, growing vehicle size and battery density are likely to offset these gains.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">The China Conundrum</h2>
China, responsible for over half of global copper demand, poses a unique challenge when it comes to substitution. &#8220;In power generation, we do not expect significant further aluminum adoption in thermal power generation or offshore wind, given technological constraints and significant substitution has already occurred in onshore wind,&#8221; Jones says.
Although <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/solar-energy">solar power</a> could see increased <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/aluminum">aluminum</a> use, safety concerns and regulatory hurdles remain significant barriers to its broader adoption in other areas.
Jones also emphasizes the importance of copper recycling: &#8220;Now that historic copper networks are being replaced, this ‘urban mining' could release material copper scrap supply by 2030.&#8221;
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Mining Plays To Watch</h2>
JPMorgan remains positive on long-term copper prices and equity exposure. In North America, Jones favors Teck Resources Ltd (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TECK#NYSE">TECK</a>), while in Europe, he highlights Lundin Mining Corp (OTCPK:LUNMF) for its &#8220;re-rating potential and de-risked growth pipeline.&#8221; 
In APAC, Sandfire Resources America Inc (OTCQB:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SRAFF#OTCQB">SRAFF</a>), Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd (OTCPK:ZIJMF), and CMOC Group Ltd (OTCPK:CMCLF) are top picks, with Rio Tinto PLC (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/RIO#NYSE">RIO</a>) and Anglo American PLC (OTCQX:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAUKF#OTCQX">AAUKF</a>) (OTCQX:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NGLOY#OTCQX">NGLOY</a>) being key diversified miners deriving over 20% of their EBITDA from copper by 2025.
Jones remains cautious, however, on miners with &#8220;more expensive valuations and more idiosyncratic risks,&#8221; including Antofagasta PLC (OTCPK:ANFGF), Southern Copper Corp (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SCCO#NYSE">SCCO</a>), and Jiangxi Copper Co Ltd (OTCPK:JIAXF).
Read Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/09/40684007/teck-resources-unveils-post-coal-business-structure-promotes-new-executives">Teck Resources Unveils Post-Coal Business Structure, Promotes New Executives</a>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Electrification Boom: Another Copper Catalyst</h2>
Beyond mining, Jones points out that greater electrification is a strong driver for cable and charging infrastructure names like Prysmian SpA (OTCPK:PRYMF) (OTCPK:PRYMY), ChargePoint Holdings Inc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CHPT#NYSE">CHPT</a>), Xuji Electric, and Sieyuan Electric. 
In addition, he sees a potential upside for telecoms like BT Group PLC (OTCPK:BTGOF), which stands to benefit from recycling legacy copper telecoms wiring, with the company expecting to recycle about 200kt of copper from its network.
&#8220;We forecast the global copper market will face a ~4 mmt deficit by 2030E given accelerating demand growth and limited supply additions,&#8221; Jones concludes, also stating that while &#8220;substitution could diminish demand and delay larger deficits, it is unlikely to close the long-term supply gap.&#8221; 
Investors should brace for higher copper prices as the supply-demand gap widens, with mining and electrification plays looking poised to benefit.
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</ul>
Image created using artificial intelligence via Midjourney.

BTGOF

CHPT

CMCLF

JIAXF

PRYMF

PRYMY

SANDFIRE RES AMER INC by Sandfire Resources America Inc.

SRAFF

ZIJMF

Copper Deficit To Reach 4 Million Tons By 2030, Analyst Predicts: Mining, Electrification Plays Set To Benefit

Consideration for the Acquisition to be&nbsp;$33.00&nbsp;per share in a mix of cash and Lundin Mining shares; concurrently, Filo announces a&nbsp;C$115 Million&nbsp;Private Placement to BHP and Lundin Mining in
Consideration for the Acquisition to be&nbsp;$33.00&nbsp;per share in a mix of cash and Lundin Mining shares; concurrently, Filo announces a&nbsp;C$115 Million&nbsp;Private Placement to BHP and Lundin Mining in connection with the Acquisition. 
&nbsp;
Highlights of the deal
<ul>
<li>Crystalizes immediate value for Filo shareholders and delivers a clear and credible path to developing Filo del Sol to its full potential, backed by two of the world&#39;s leading copper miners;</li>
<li>Consolidation of two key assets in the Vicu&ntilde;a district by the JV creates a market-leading operational footprint in the district and offers:
<ul>
<li>Strong balance sheet capacity to fund future project development;</li>
<li>Potential to capture synergies and operational efficiencies; and</li>
<li>The ability for&nbsp;Filo del Sol to benefit from recently passed legislation in&nbsp;Argentina&nbsp;benefiting projects entering development;</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Filo shareholders that receive Lundin Mining shares will maintain upside exposure to the JV, while also benefiting from:
<ul>
<li>Jurisdictional and project risk diversification in a company with diversified asset portfolio with long-life assets operating globally;</li>
<li>Exposure to strong and increasing cash flow generation and dividends; and</li>
<li>Enhanced market profile with greater share liquidity.</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>

CORRECTED: Reported Monday, BHP And Lundin Mining To Acquire Filo Corp For C$4.1B, Offering C$33/ Share In Cash And Lundin Mining Shares Or Mix Of Both

BHP Group Limited (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BHP#NYSE">BHP</a>) shares are trading lower today. The company and Lundin Mining Corp. (OTC:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/LUNMF#OTC">LUNMF</a>) have agreed to jointly acquire all outstanding shares of Filo Corp. (OTC:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FLMMF#OTC">FLMMF</a>) for a total consideration of <a href="https://www.benzinga.com//node/40026058">about C$4.1 billion, or C$33.00 per Filo share. </a>
The offer represents a 32.2% premium over Filo Corp.&#8217;s 30-day volume-weighted average price on the TSX as of July 11, 2024, the day before transaction rumors surfaced, and a 12.2% premium over the company&#8217;s last closing price on July 29, 2024.
BHP&#8217;s total cash payment for the proposed transaction is projected to be around $2.1 billion.
As part of the Filo acquisition, BHP and Lundin Mining will also purchase 3.48 million common shares of Filo at C$33.00 per share, totaling C$115 million in gross proceeds. This share placement is intended to provide interim financing to Filo.
Upon completion of the acquisition, BHP and Lundin Mining will each hold a 50% stake in Filo Corp. and the FDS project.
Filo shareholders can elect to receive cash, Lundin Mining shares, or a combination of both. BHP will contribute approximately C$1.908 billion ($1.377 billion) in cash, while Lundin Mining will provide around C$859 million in cash and C$1.289 billion in Lundin Mining shares.
BHP and Lundin Mining will also establish a 50/50 joint venture to manage the FDS and Josemaria projects in the Vicuña district of Argentina and Chile. Lundin Mining owns 100% of the Josemaria project.
Additionally, BHP will buy a 50% stake in the Josemaria project from Lundin Mining for around $690 million, subject to adjustments.
The company anticipates closing the deal in the first quarter of 2025, pending satisfaction of all closing conditions.
Read: <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/large-cap/24/05/39068033/time-runs-out-for-bhp-deal-49-billion-acquisition-of-anglo-american-proves-too-complex-to-solve" rel="noreferrer noopener">Time Runs Out For BHP Deal: $49-Billion Acquisition Of Anglo American Proves Too Complex To Solve</a>
Mike Henry, BHP&#8217;s&nbsp;Chief Executive Officer, said, &#8220;This transaction aligns with BHP&#8217;s strategy to acquire attractive early-stage copper projects and enter into strategic partnerships with parties where complementary skills and experience can deliver long-term economic and social value.&#8221;
&#8220;The joint venture with Lundin Mining will advance the development of the Vicuña district, which offers the potential to become a major contributor to the economy of Argentina for decades to come. At the same time, by partnering with Lundin Mining, BHP is continuing to invest in the growth of a robust mining sector in Canada.&#8221;&nbsp;
Read: <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/24/07/39725092/bhp-to-temporarily-shut-down-western-australia-nickel-operations-details" rel="noreferrer noopener">BHP To Temporarily Shut Down Western Australia Nickel Operations: Details</a>
This month, BHP reported second-quarter copper production of 504.9 Kt (+6% Y/Y), led by growth at Escondida (+6% Y/Y), Copper South <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com//node/39816439" rel="noreferrer noopener">Australia (+17% Y/Y), and Antamina (+5% Y/Y).</a>
Investors can gain exposure to the stock via&nbsp;Exchange Traded&nbsp;Concepts Trust Optica Rare Earths &amp; Critical Materials ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CRIT#NYSE">CRIT</a>) and&nbsp;VanEck Natural Resources ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/HAP#NYSE">HAP</a>).
Also Read: <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/24/07/40015779/bhps-escondida-mine-faces-potential-strike-over-contract-dispute-report" rel="noreferrer noopener">BHP&#8217;s Escondida Mine Faces Potential Strike Over Contract Dispute: Report</a>
Price Action: BHP shares are down 2.47% at $53.65 premarket at the last check Tuesday.
Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
Photo via Shutterstock
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</ul>

Equities

Movers

Exchange Traded Concepts Trust Optica Rare Earths & Critical Materials ETF

CRIT

Market Vectors RVE Hard Assets Producers ETF

BHP To Unlock South American Copper Riches: Partners With Lundin For Filo Acquisition

Lundin Mining (OTC:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/LUNMF#OTC">LUNMF</a>) announced a $350 million investment to boost its ownership in the Caserones copper-molybdenum mine in Chile to 70%. After acquiring control of the mine in March 2023, the Canadian miner is now exercising a right to expand its stake, boosting its <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/copper">copper and rare metal output.</a>
&#8220;This strategic investment reinforces our commitment to expanding our copper portfolio and strengthens our presence in a key mining region,&#8221; <a href="https://lundinmining.com/news/lundin-mining-exercises-option-to-increase-ownersh-123157/">stated</a> CEO Jack Lundin.
Caserones is situated in the Atacama Region of northern Chile, near the border with Argentina, and operates at an altitude of approximately 4,200 meters. The mine produces both copper concentrate and copper cathodes alongside molybdenum concentrate. Anticipated production in 2024 stands between 100,000 and 130,000 metric tons of copper and around 3,000 metric tons of molybdenum.
Now read: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/asia/24/06/39508095/japan-discovers-200-million-tons-of-rare-earth-metals-near-remote-island-expects-mining-to-begin-202">Japan Discovers 200 Million Tons Of Rare Earth Metals Near Remote Island, Expects Mining To Begin 2026</a>
The mine&#8217;s strategic location and substantial production capacity make it a valuable asset in Lundin Mining&#8217;s portfolio. As part of the investment agreement, Lundin Mining will now be entitled to a yearly operator fee in the form of a $21 million preferred dividend, which will increase to $28 million in 2025.
Management plans to fund this transaction through its revolving credit facility, ensuring the investment does not impact the company's immediate liquidity.
Expanding a stake in a copper mine is no surprise to the industry, as BHP's recent $50 billion attempted acquisition of Anglo American showcases the importance of quality copper assets.
Speaking at this week&#8217;s London Indaba, Benchmark Mineral Intelligence analyst Piotr Ortonowski commented on the positive trend and growing demand for copper as a pivotal metal in the global energy transition.
"I think we&#8217;re moving into a new era of demand where we might see, instead of 2% to 2.5% growth per annum copper demand, we&#8217;ll probably see 2.5% to 3% demand growth, which might not sound like a lot, but it is, in absolute terms," he said, <a href="https://www.miningweekly.com/article/copper-market-facing-renewed-caution-from-investors-2024-06-26">per</a> Mining Weekly's report.
Lundin Mining&#8217;s increased stake in Caserones positions them well to capitalize on this upward trend.
Read Next:
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/large-cap/24/06/39500608/bhp-group-anticipates-uptick-in-2024-carbon-emissions-remains-committed-to-30-reduction-by-2030">BHP Group Anticipates Uptick In 2024 Carbon Emissions, Remains Committed To 30% Reduction By 2030</a></li>
</ul>
 Benzinga Mining is the bridge between mining companies and retail investors. Reach out to <a href="mailto:licensing@benzinga.com">licensing@benzinga.com</a> to get started!
Image created using artificial intelligence via Midjourney.

Financing

Global

Lundin Mining Invests $350M To Expand Caserones Stake, Enhance Copper Production

The investment landscape for copper has been ignited by recent bullish predictions, particularly from prominent hedge fund <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/03/37985516/not-just-nvidia-ai-is-also-fueling-global-copper-demand-analyst-reveals-3-top-stock">manager Pierre Andurand</a>. 
Andurand's <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/725234a6-9e6f-4a4a-9406-2bda667ca511">forecast</a> of copper prices reaching $40,000 per tonne underscored a compelling investment opportunity in copper miner stocks and the Global X Copper Miners ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/COPX#NYSE">COPX</a>).
Here are the drivers behind his optimistic outlook for copper. Benzinga will also touch upon the performance and holdings of the Global X Copper Miners ETF and examine technical indicators to present a comprehensive case for investors.
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Copper Demand-Supply Dynamics</h1>
Copper, a critical metal in the energy transition, is poised for significant demand growth. Andurand&#8217;s prediction is based on the increasing electrification of the world, including:
<ul>
<li>electric vehicles</li>
<li>renewable energy infrastructure</li>
<li>military applications</li>
<li>data centers</li>
</ul>
As these sectors expand, the demand for copper is expected to double, outpacing supply, which traditionally takes about 15 years to develop new mines.
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Pierre Andurand's Bullish Outlook For Copper</h1>
Andurand, known for his success in commodities trading, shifted his focus to copper after experiencing setbacks in the oil market.
His Commodities Discretionary Enhanced fund rebounded from a 55% loss last year and is now up 83% year-to-date, largely due to diversified commodity investments.
He believes current supply constraints and robust demand will propel copper prices to unprecedented heights.
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">COPX ETF Overview</h1>
The Global X Copper Miners ETF (COPX) offers a targeted investment in copper mining companies. With an expense ratio of 0.65%, the ETF has shown impressive returns:
<ul>
<li>3 Month Return: 32.70%</li>
<li>YTD Return: 27.36%</li>
<li>1 Year Return: 39.32%</li>
</ul>
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Key Holdings</h1>
Global X Copper Miners ETF's portfolio includes leading copper miners, reflecting a diversified exposure to the industry (Company name, U.S.-listed ticker, allocation%):
<ol>
<li>First Quantum Minerals Ltd. (OTCPK:FQVLF) &#8211; 5.31%</li>
<li>KGHM Polska Miedz S.A. (OTCPK: KGHPF) &#8211; 5.30%</li>
<li>Boliden AB (OTCPK:BDNNY) (OTCPK: BLIDF) &#8211; 4.82%</li>
<li>Lundin Mining Corp. (OTCPK: LUNMF) &#8211; 4.72%</li>
<li>Teck Resources Limited Class B (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TECK#NYSE">TECK</a>) &#8211; 4.69%</li>
<li>BHP Group Ltd (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BHP#NYSE">BHP</a>) &#8211; 4.64%</li>
<li>Glencore plc (OTCPK: GLCNF) (OTCPK: GLNCY) &#8211; 4.60%</li>
<li>Zijin Mining Group Co., Ltd. Class H (OTCPK: ZIJMF) (OTCPK: ZIJMY) &#8211; 4.58%</li>
<li>Antofagasta plc (OTCPK: ANFGF) &#8211; 4.54%</li>
<li>Freeport-McMoRan, Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FCX#NYSE">FCX</a>) &#8211; 4.51%</li>
</ol>
Also Read: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/04/38292100/freeport-mcmoran-vs-teck-resources-which-copper-stock-has-more-upside">Freeport-McMoRan Vs. Teck Resources — Which Copper Stock Has More Upside?</a>
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Charts Indicate Bullish Outlook For Global X Copper Miners ETF</h1>
The technical indicators for Global X Copper Miners ETF reveal a moderately bullish trend, with buying pressure suggesting a positive outlook.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="625" height="454" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/27075654/Screenshot-2024-05-27-at-3.57.03-PM.png" alt="" class="wp-image-357042" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/27075654/Screenshot-2024-05-27-at-3.57.03-PM.png 625w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/27075654/Screenshot-2024-05-27-at-3.57.03-PM-300x218.png 300w" sizes="(max-width: 625px) 100vw, 625px" /></figure>
<a href="https://pro.benzinga.com/dashboard" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Chart: Benzinga Pro</a>
The Global X Copper Miners ETF share price is $48.66 while the 8-day simple moving average (SMA) is $49.98, which signals short-term bearishness.
However, the 20-day SMA at $48.35 and the 50-day SMA at $45.74 both indicate a bullish momentum. The 200-day SMA stands at $38.34, further reinforcing the bullish signal as the stock price remains well above it.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="625" height="454" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/27075708/Screenshot-2024-05-27-at-3.56.13-PM.png" alt="" class="wp-image-357043" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/27075708/Screenshot-2024-05-27-at-3.56.13-PM.png 625w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/27075708/Screenshot-2024-05-27-at-3.56.13-PM-300x218.png 300w" sizes="(max-width: 625px) 100vw, 625px" /></figure>
<a href="https://pro.benzinga.com/dashboard" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Chart: Benzinga Pro</a>
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is 1.21, suggesting bullishness, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 53.65 indicates that the ETF is neither oversold nor overbought. 
Additionally, the Bollinger Bands support bullish signals as the ETF is trading within the upper range.
Given the bullish forecast for copper prices, driven by robust demand and constrained supply, copper miner stocks and the COPX ETF represent a compelling investment opportunity. 
Andurand's expertise and confidence in the market, coupled with strong ETF performance and supportive technical indicators, suggest that investors could consider taking exposure to this sector. 
As the world continues to electrify and transition towards renewable energy, the demand for copper is set to soar, making now an opportune time to invest in copper miners through Global X Copper Miners ETF.
Read Next: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/03/37985516/not-just-nvidia-ai-is-also-fueling-global-copper-demand-analyst-reveals-3-top-stock">Not Just Nvidia, AI Is Also Fueling Global Copper Demand: Analyst Reveals 3 Top Stock Picks</a>
Photo: Shutterstock

Hedge Funds

Technicals

GLCNF

KGHPF

ZIJMY

Copper To $40,000 A Tonne, Says Hedge Fund Titan Pierre Andurand: What ETF Investors Should Watch

Australian multinational miner&nbsp;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/BHP">BHP Group</a>'s (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BHP#NYSE">BHP</a>) nearly $40 billion bid for rival Anglo American (OTC:&nbsp;NGLOY) may not be enough to acquire the company as other diversified miners will probably make rival bids amid the global scramble for copper assets.
After completing a $6.4 billion takeover of Australian copper producer&nbsp;OZ Minerals&nbsp;last year, BHP is doubling down on the red metal amid widespread expectations that demand will greatly increase in coming years as the global economy transitions from fossil fuels. 
Solar and wind farms and electric vehicles require more copper than traditional utilities and internal combustion engine automobiles.
"This is the latest move to consolidate in industrial metals driven by a scramble for copper and other metals central to the world&#8217;s clean energy movement,"&nbsp;Sean Casterline, founder of the investment consulting firm&nbsp;Delta Capital Management, told Benzinga.
BHP, already the world's biggest mining company, is currently the third-largest copper producer behind Chile's state-run&nbsp;Codelco&nbsp;and U.S.-based heavyweight&nbsp;Freeport-McMoRan Inc.&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FCX#NYSE">FCX</a>). A combination with Anglo American would push BHP to the pole position.&nbsp;&nbsp;
"In our view, the copper assets are the primary driver of a proposed transaction,"&nbsp;RBC Capital Markets analysts said.&nbsp;
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Rival Bids Seem Likely</h1>
BHP said it offered 25.08 pounds ($32.27) a share for London-based Anglo American, which said it is reviewing the proposal. The all-share deal values Anglo American at GBP 31.1 billion ($38.9 billion) and is contingent on the U.K. company spinning off its shareholdings in Anglo American Platinum Ltd. (OTC:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ANGPY#OTC">ANGPY</a>) and Kumba Iron Ore Ltd. (OTC:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/KIROY#OTC">KIROY</a>), which are both listed in South Africa.
The proposal represents a nearly 14% premium for Anglo American's London-listed shares and a 31% premium without the platinum and iron ore units.
Analysts said that probably isn't enough.
Also Read: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/asia/24/04/38090219/will-copper-reach-10-000-an-essential-metal-that-faces-an-uncertain-future">Will Copper Reach $10,000? &#8216;An Essential Metal That Faces An Uncertain Future&#8217;</a>
Anglo American's shares have been so beaten down recently that its board and shareholders probably see BHP's bid as undervaluing the company, including copper assets in Chile and Peru, where BHP also has copper operations. Anglo American's shares have been suffering because of operational problems, a disappointing production outlook and a slump in diamond and platinum-group markets.
BHP's offer is "a timid and somewhat convoluted bid" that "won't be enough to draw either Anglo's board or its key shareholders," Liberum analyst Ben Davis said. After BHP's offer, he raised Anglo's price target to 27.50 pounds ($34.41), a near 25% bump from the stock&#8217;s closing price before the offer was officially made public.
Jefferies analysts went higher, saying a price of at least 28 pounds ($35.04) per share would be required for serious discussions between the companies, and a takeout price north of 30 pounds ($37.54) per share would be the outcome of a bidding war.
"If BHP does indeed continue to pursue this deal, we would be surprised if other bidders do not emerge," the company said. "Let the games begin."
The RBC Capital Markets analysts pegged diversified miner Glencore (OTC:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLNCY#OTC">GLNCY</a>) as one logical bidder because of the potential advantages in combining the companies' copper assets. The company also listed Vale (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VALE#NYSE">VALE</a>) as a possibility because of the attractiveness of combining iron ore assets in Brazil. 
Davis pointed to diversified multinational miner&nbsp;Rio Tinto&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/RIO#NYSE">RIO</a>) as his top pick for an interloper, although he noted the company has a reputation for preferring to build mines rather than buy them.
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Gold Miners Expand Copper Holdings</h1>
One reason why copper acquisitions are attractive is that building new copper mines from scratch is expensive and time-consuming.
That's especially true in the U.S., where getting a permit is difficult, or in other jurisdictions such as Panama, where a court ruling recently forced the closure of a huge copper mine after local protests, said&nbsp;Jason Crawshaw, portfolio manager at&nbsp;Polaris Capital, which invests in copper miners&nbsp;Lundin Mining Corp. (OTC:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/LUNMF#OTC">LUNMF</a>) and Antofagasta (OTC:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ANFGF#OTC">ANFGF</a>).
"There is a scramble for assets," he told Benzinga. "Everybody is always looking to get more exposure to copper."
Even gold miners have been interested in bulking up on copper assets.&nbsp;
Last year, U.S.-based gold mining major&nbsp;Newmont Corp.&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NEM#NYSE">NEM</a>) bought Australian gold miner Newcrest Mining Ltd. for nearly $17 billion, adding nearly 50 billion pounds of copper reserves and resources in one fell swoop.
Meanwhile, Canada-headquartered rival&nbsp;Barrick Gold Corp.&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOLD#NYSE">GOLD</a>) is spending nearly $2 billion to expand a copper mine in Zambia, targeting expanded plant production in 2028.&nbsp;
Investors looking for diverse exposure to copper producers can consider the&nbsp;Global X Copper Miners ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/COPX#NYSE">COPX</a>),&nbsp;Sprott Copper Miners ETF&nbsp;(NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/COPP#NASDAQ">COPP</a>),&nbsp;Sprott Junior Copper Miners ETF&nbsp;(NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/COPJ#NASDAQ">COPJ</a>)&nbsp;and&nbsp;iShares Copper and Metals Mining ETF&nbsp;(NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ICOP#NASDAQ">ICOP</a>).
Now Read: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/03/37924793/rising-copper-prices-portfolio-review-make-underperforming-anglo-american-stock-a-p">Rising Copper Prices, Portfolio Review Make Underperforming Anglo American Stock A Potential Bargain: Report (CORRECTED)</a>
Photo: Anglo American copper mine in Chile courtesy of Anglo American Flickr

Copper Is A Hot Commodity: Bidding War for Anglo American May Emerge After BHP's 'Low Ball' Offer — 'Let The Games Begin'

Lundin Mining Corp (OTC: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/lunmf#OTC">LUNMF</a>) shares were <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/LUNMF">climbing in early trading on Wednesday</a>.
The company is&nbsp;a defensive name with strong cash flows in the near term, while being leveraged to copper prices in the longer term, according to BMO Capital Markets.
The Lundin Mining Analyst: Jackie Przybylowski upgraded the rating for Lundin Mining from Market Perform to Outperform, while raising the price target from $12 Canadian dollars ($8.83) to CA$16 ($11.78).
The Lundin Mining Thesis: The company now has &ldquo;plenty of cash after the sale of its Tenke stake, stable operations, and the generous NCIB in place,&rdquo; Przybylowski said in the upgrade note.
Check out <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-stock-ratings">other analyst stock ratings</a>.
With operating challenges in the rearview mirror, Lundin Mining&rsquo;s assets are poised for steady production, which should generate strong cash flows in 2024, the analyst stated.
&ldquo;Acquisitions of Josemaria and Caserones between 2021 and 2023 provide the company with growth optionality,&rdquo; Przybylowski wrote, adding&nbsp;that Lundin Mining enjoyed&nbsp;&ldquo;a long-term leverage to copper prices through the future development of some of the industry&rsquo;s best potential major growth projects of the next generation.&rdquo;
LUNMF Price Action: Shares of Lundin Mining had risen by 1.86% to $9.85 at the time of publication on Wednesday.
Read Next:&nbsp;&#39;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/03/37955066/time-to-buy-apple-stock-says-expert-out-of-all-mag-7-stocks-after-maybe-tesla-apple">Time To Buy&#39; Apple Stock, Says Expert: &#39;Out Of All Mag 7 Stocks, After Maybe Tesla, Apple Is Currently The Most Hated&#39;</a>
Photo: Shutterstock

Upgrades

Price Target

Why This Lundin Mining Analyst Is Turning Bullish

BMO Capital analyst Jackie Przybylowski upgrades Lundin Mining (OTC:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/LUNMF#OTC">LUNMF</a>) from Market Perform to Outperform and raises the price target from $12 to $16.

BMO Capital Upgrades Lundin Mining to Outperform, Raises Price Target to $16

Raymond James analyst Farooq Hamed maintains Lundin Mining (OTC:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/LUNMF#OTC">LUNMF</a>) with a Market Perform and raises the price target from $9.5 to $11.5.

Raymond James Maintains Market Perform on Lundin Mining, Raises Price Target to $11.5

JP Morgan analyst Patrick Jones maintains Lundin Mining (OTC:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/LUNMF#OTC">LUNMF</a>) with a Underweight and lowers the price target from C$8.4 to C$8.

JP Morgan Maintains Underweight on Lundin Mining, Lowers Price Target to $8

Small Cap

Opinion

Press Releases

Domestic Mining Development Crucial as Copper Demand Skyrockets: Experts Say

Dividends

Lundin Mining Announces Declaration of Regular Dividend and Provides Update on Share Buybacks

ARREF

CSE:JKS

CSE:YMC

TSX:ARG

TSX:LUN

Lundin Mining

Raymond James

JP Morgan

TD Securities

Barclays

금속 시장이 변동성을 겪고 있는 가운데 &#8220;V자형 회복&#8221;에 대한 낙관론이 확산되고 있다. JP모건의 애널리스트인 도미닉 오케인(Dominic O&#8217;Kane)과 패트릭 존스(Patrick Jones)는 <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/asia/24/12/42692036/billionaire-investors-michael-burry-david-tepper-could-benefit-from-chinas-stimulus-measures">예상되는 중국의 재정 부양책</a>이 이 부문의 전환점이 될 수 있다고 제안한다.
금속 가격이 반등할 것으로 예상되면서, 그들은 투자자들에게 앵글로 아메리칸 PLC(OTCQX:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NGLOY#OTCQX">NGLOY</a>) (OTCQX:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAUKF#OTCQX">AAUKF</a>), 퍼스트 퀀텀 미네랄즈(OTCPK:FQVLF) 및 룬딘 마이닝(OTCPK:LUNMF)의 &#8220;과매도된 광산주에 투자 포지션을 축적하라&#8221;고 촉구한다.
금속 및 광산 섹터에 대한 다양한 노출을 제공하는 상장지수펀드(ETF)도 있다. 예를 들어, SPDR S&amp;P Metals &amp; Mining ETF(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XME#NYSE">XME</a>)와 iShares MSCI Global Metals &amp; Mining Producers ETF(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PICK#NYSE">PICK</a>)가 있다.
<div class="ticker-wrapper"></div>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">광산주 회복 전망?</h2>
2024년 9월 말 이후 유럽 금속 및 광산 주식이 17% 하락한 것은 관세 위험과 미 달러/중국 위안화 환율 하락에 따른 시장의 신중한 태도를 반영한 것이다. 그러나 애널리스트들은 이 하락세를 전략적 투자 기회로 보고 있다. 앵글로 아메리칸은 20억 달러의 자산 손상과 다이아몬드 매각 전략 지연 등 단기적인 도전에 직면해 있지만, 앵글로 플래티넘의 분사 이후 M&amp;A 대상이 될 가능성이 있다.
룬딘 마이닝과 노르스크 하이드로 ASA(OTCQX:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NHYDY#OTCQX">NHYDY</a>)는 강력한 펀더멘털로 관세 관련 불확실성을 극복할 수 있는 탄력적인 선택으로 주목받고 있다.
애널리스트들은 이러한 주식들에 대해 긍정적인 전망을 유지하고 있으며, 이들이 넓은 시장 회복의 혜택을 받을 것으로 예상하고 있다.
읽어보세요: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/commodities/24/12/42455382/gold-to-shine-bright-in-2025-as-top-investment-bank-predicts-bullish-outlook-amid-trade-tensions">2025년 금이 빛날 것이라는 전망: 주요 투자은행이 무역 긴장 속에서 강세 전망을 예측</a>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">시장 혼란 속에서 빛나는 금 주식</h2>
금은 안전 자산으로서의 위력을 계속 입증하고 있으며, 가격은 온스당 2,100달러로 상승할 것으로 예상된다.
앵글로골드 아샨티 PLC(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AU#NYSE">AU</a>), 호치스차일드 마이닝 PLC(OTCQX:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/HCHDF#OTCQX">HCHDF</a>) 및 프레스닐로 PLC(OTCPK:<a class="items-end ticker-link-wrapper inline-flex" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/fnlpf" target="_blank" rel="dofollow noopener" aria-label="Go to Quote Page for FNLPF">FNLPF</a>)와 같은 주식들이 애널리스트들에 의해 강력한 선택으로 남아 있으며, 이는 강력한 은 생산 전망과 귀금속 수요 증가에 의해 지원된다.
금광 주식에 투자하는 인기 있는 방법으로는 VanEck Gold Miners ETF(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GDX#NYSE">GDX</a>)와 VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GDXJ#NYSE">GDXJ</a>)가 있다.
애널리스트들은 프레스닐로의 은 생산 강점을 강조하며, 이를 긍정적 촉매 관찰 목록에 올렸다.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">중국의 자극책: 전환점이 될까?</h2>
모든 시선은 3월 5일 열린 전국인민대표대회에 집중되고 있으며, 여기서 중국이 금속 가격 상승을 촉진할 수 있는 재정 조치를 발표할 것으로 기대된다.
애널리스트들은 이러한 조치가 시장의 급격한 회복을 촉발하고, 잠재적인 상승 추세 전에 광산주에 대한 포지션을 축적할 필요성을 확고히 할 수 있다고 믿고 있다.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">결론</h2>
금속 시장이 회복될 기로에 선 지금, 과매도된 광산주를 축적하는 것은 &#8220;V자형 회복&#8221; 전에 전략적 가치를 제공할 수 있다.
다음 읽기: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://kr.benzinga.com/news/usa/stocks/%EB%8F%85%EC%A0%90-2025%EB%85%84%EC%97%90-%EC%97%90%EB%84%88%EC%A7%80%EC%99%80-%EB%B0%98%EB%8F%84%EC%B2%B4%EA%B0%80-%ED%8F%AC%ED%8A%B8%ED%8F%B4%EB%A6%AC%EC%98%A4%EB%A5%BC-%EC%A7%80%EB%B0%B0%ED%95%A0/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">독점: 에너지와 반도체가 2025년 포트폴리오를 지배할 수 있다, 디렉시온 CEO</a></li>
</ul>
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금, 광업 주식들은 'V자형 회복'을 할 것인가? 분석가들은 '과매도된 광산주들'을 추천

전 세계가 전기화된 미래로 나아가면서 구리 시장은 <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/copper">중요한 기로</a>에 서 있다.
JP모건의 애널리스트인 패트릭 존스(Patrick Jones), 그렉 시어러(Greg Shearer) 및 빌 피터슨(Bill Peterson)의 통찰은 구리 가격에 대한 단기적인 장애물과 전기차 및 공급 동태의 변화에 의해 주도되는 화려한 장기 전망을 제시한다.
이는 United States Copper Index Fund ETV(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CPER#NYSE">CPER</a>), Global X Copper Miners ETF(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/COPX#NYSE">COPX</a>) 및 iShares Copper and Metals Mining ETF(NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ICOP#NASDAQ">ICOP</a>)에 투자한 이들에게는 장기적으로 좋은 소식처럼 보일 수 있다.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">전기차 붐: 구리 수요를 급증시키다</h2>
전기차(EV) 혁명은 구리 수요를 전기화할 준비가 되어 있다. JP모건은 전기차에서의 구리 사용량이 2023년 140만 톤에서 2030년까지 300만 톤으로 두 배 이상 증가할 것이라고 예측한다. 얇은 구리 양극 포일과 같은 기술 발전이 수요를 저해할 수 있다는 우려가 있지만, 이 애널리스트들은 그렇지 않다고 주장한다.
전기차 크기의 증가와 리튬-철-인산(LFP) 배터리로의 전환 — 이는 구리 사용량이 더 많은 배터리이다 — 이 장기적인 성장을 주도할 것으로 예상된다.
추가 읽기: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/10/41337566/trump-2-0-trade-policies-could-hit-copper-stocks-harder-warns-jpmorgan-analyst">트럼프 2.0 무역 정책이 구리 주식에 더 큰 타격을 줄 수 있다고 경고한 JP모건 애널리스트</a>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">신기술: 용출이 생명줄이 될 수 있을까?</h2>
용출 기술(Leaching technologies)이 화제를 모으고 있지만, 구리 공급을 혁신할 수 있을까? 아직은 아니라고 이 애널리스트들은 말한다. 프리포트-맥모란(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FCX#NYSE">FCX</a>)과 BHP 그룹(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BHP#NYSE">BHP</a>)과 같은 주요 광산업체들의 프로젝트가 수면 위로 떠오르고 있지만, 이러한 발전이 2030년 이전에 공급 감소를 상쇄할 가능성은 낮다.
최고로 봐도 용출 기술은 연간 55만 톤을 추가할 수 있으며, 이는 전 세계 공급의 2%에 불과하다.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">스크랩 및 재활용: 주목받지 않는 영웅?</h2>
재활용은 구리 공급의 중요한 요소로, 2024년 정제 공급의 약 17%를 차지하여 2020년의 14%에서 증가할 것이다. JP모건은 스크랩 공급이 연간 5-6% 성장할 것으로 예상하지만, 이는 역사적 비율보다 빠르긴 해도 장기적인 적자를 메우기에는 불충분하다고 전망한다. 재활용만으로는 구리 공급 부족 문제를 해결할 수 없다.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">단기 위험, 장기 보상</h2>
JP모건은 중국 위안화가 1달러당 7.8에서 8.0으로 평가절하될 가능성 등 거시경제적 압력으로 인한 단기 위험을 경고한다. 이는 구리 가격이 12-15% 하락하게 되어 주식에 악영향을 미칠 수 있지만, 이 애널리스트들은 다가오는 공급-수요 격차에 기초하여 장기적인 경로에 대해 긍정적으로 전망하고 있다.
그들의 추천 종목은 다음과 같다:
룬딘 마이닝(OTCPK:<a class="items-end ticker-link-wrapper inline-flex" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/lunmf" target="_blank" rel="dofollow noopener" aria-label="Go to Quote Page for LUNMF">LUNMF</a>)은 EMEA에서 선두주자이며, 테크 리소스(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TECK#NYSE">TECK</a>)는 아메리카에서 가장 높다. 아시아-태평양의 선호 종목은 지진 마이닝(Zijin Mining)과 메르데카 코퍼(Merdeka Copper)이며, 장시 코퍼(Jiangxi Copper)와 샌드파이어 리소스(Sandfire Resources)에 대해서는 주의가 필요하다.
다음 읽기: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/11/41877899/trump-re-election-jolts-metals-market-as-gold-sees-a-stumble-not-a-sea-change">트럼프 재선이 금 시장에 충격을 주고 금은 &#8216;급락, 변화 없음&#8217;으로 이어진다</a></li>
</ul>
이미지: Shutterstock
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호주의 다국적 광산업체인 <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/BHP" target="_blank" rel="noopener">BHP</a> 그룹(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BHP#NYSE">BHP</a>)가 경쟁사인 앵글로 아메리칸(OTC:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NGLOY#OTC">NGLOY</a>)에 제출한 약 400억 달러 입찰은 이 회사를 인수하기에 충분하지 않을 수 있다. 왜냐하면 구리 자산에 대한 전 세계적 쟁탈전 속에서 다른 다각화된 광산업체들이 아마도 경쟁 입찰을 할 것이기 때문이다.
작년에 호주 구리 생산업체인 OZ 미네랄(OZ Minerals)의 64억 달러 인수를 완료한 후, BHP는 세계 경제가 화석 연료에서 전환함에 따라 앞으로 수요가 크게 증가할 것이라는 광범위한 기대 속에서 구리에 대한 투자를 두 배로 늘리고 있다.
태양광, 풍력 발전소, 전기 자동차에는 기존 유틸리티 및 내연 기관 자동차보다 더 많은 구리가 필요하다.
투자 컨설팅 회사인 델타 캐피털 매니지먼트(Delta Capital Management)의 설립자인 숀 캐스터라인(Sean Casterline)은 Benzinga에 &#8220;이것은 세계 청정 에너지 운동의 핵심인 구리 및 기타 금속에 ​​대한 쟁탈전으로 인해 추진된 산업용 금속을 통합하려는 최신 움직임&#8221;이라고 말했다.
이미 세계 최대의 광산 회사인 BHP는 현재 칠레의 국영 코델코(Codelco)와 미국의 대형 기업인 프리포트 맥모란(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FCX#NYSE">FCX</a>)에 이어 세 번째로 큰 구리 생산업체이다. 앵글로 아메리칸과의 합병으로 BHP는 선두 위치로 올라설 것이다.
RBC 캐피털 마켓의 분석가는 &#8220;우리의 견해로는 구리 자산이 제안된 거래의 주요 동인이라고 생각한다&#8221;라고 말했다.
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">경쟁 입찰 가능성 높다</h1>
BHP는 런던에 본사를 둔 앵글로 아메리칸에 주당 25.08파운드(32.27달러)를 제안했으며 앵글로 아메리칸은 이 제안을 검토 중이라고 밝혔다. 이번 전체 주식 거래는 앵글로 아메리칸의 가치를 311억 파운드(389억 달러)로 평가하며 이 영국 회사가 남아프리카에 상장된 앵글로 아메리칸 플래티넘(OTC:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ANGPY#OTC">ANGPY</a>) 및 쿰바 철광석(Kumba Iron Ore Ltd.)(OTC:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/KIROY#OTC">KIROY</a>)의 지분을 분할하는 데 달려 있다.
이번 제안은 앵글로 아메리칸의 런던 상장 주식에 대해서는 14% 가량의 프리미엄을, 그리고 동사의 백금 및 철광석 부문을 제외한다면 31% 가량의 프리미엄을 나타낸다.
그러나 이에 대해 여러 분석가들은 이게 충분하지 않을 수도 있다고 말했다.
또한 읽어볼 것: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/asia/24/04/38090219/will-copper-reach-10-000-an-essential-metal-that-faces-an-uncertain-future">구리는 1만 달러에 달할까? ‘불확실한 미래를 맞닥뜨리는 귀중한 금속&#8217;</a>
앵글로 아메리칸의 주가는 최근 너무 하락했기 때문에 이사회와 주주들은 아마도 BHP가 구리 사업을 운영하고 있는 칠레와 페루에서의 이 회사 구리 자산을 포함한 회사의 가치를 BHP의 제안이 과소평가한 것으로 생각할 것이다. 앵글로 아메리칸의 주가는 운영 문제, 실망스러운 생산 전망, 다이아몬드 및 플래티넘 그룹 시장의 부진으로 인해 어려움을 겪고 있다.
BHP의 제안은 &#8220;앵글로 이사회나 주요 주주를 끌어들이기에 충분하지 않은 소심하고 다소 복잡한 입찰&#8221;이라고 리버룸(Liberum)의 분석가 벤 데이비스(Ben Davis)가 말했다. BHP의 제안 이후 그는 앵글로의 목표 가격을 27.50파운드(34.41달러)로 높였다. 이는 제안이 공식적으로 공개되기 전 주식 종가에서 거의 25% 상승한 수치입니다.
제프리스(Jefferies)의 분석가들은 회사 간의 진지한 논의를 위해서는 주당 최소 28파운드(35.04달러)의 가격이 필요할 것이며 주당 30파운드(37.54달러)를 넘는 테이크아웃 가격은 입찰 전쟁의 결과가 될 것이라고 말하면서 더 높이 올렸다.
&#8220;만약 BHP가 실제로 이 거래를 계속 추진한다면 다른 입찰자가 나오지 않는다면 우리는 놀랄 것이다&#8221;라고 이 회사가 말했다. &#8220;이 게임이 시작되는 것을 보자.&#8221;
RBC 캐피털 마켓의 분석가들은 이 회사의 구리 자산을 결합할 때 얻을 수 있는 잠재적 이점 때문에 다각화된 채굴업체 글렌코어(OTC:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLNCY#OTC">GLNCY</a>)를 하나의 논리적 입찰자로 선정했다. 이 회사는 브라질 철광석 자산 결합의 매력 때문에 발리(NYSE:<a class="items-end ticker-link-wrapper inline-flex" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/vale" target="_blank" rel="dofollow noopener" aria-label="Go to Quote Page for VALE">VALE</a>)도 가능성으로 내세웠다.
데이비스는 다국적 광산 기업인 리오 틴토(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/RIO#NYSE">RIO</a>)를 중요한 후보로 꼽았다. 하지만 그는 이 회사가 광산을 구매하는 것보다 광산을 건설하는 것을 선호하는 것으로 유명하다고 지적했다.
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">금광 회사들의 구리 자산 확장</h1>
구리 인수가 매력적인 이유 중 하나는 처음부터 새로운 구리 광산을 건설하는 데 비용이 많이 들고 시간이 많이 걸린다는 것이다.
허가를 받기 어려운 미국이나 현지 시위 이후 최근 법원 판결로 대규모 구리 광산을 폐쇄해야 하는 파나마와 같은 다른 관할권에서는 특히 그렇다고 폴라리스 캐피털(Polaris Capital)의 포트폴리오 매니저인 제이슨 크로쇼(Jason Crawshaw)가 말했다. 폴라리스 캐피털은 구리 광산업체인 런딘 마이닝 코퍼레이션(OTC:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/LUNMF#OTC">LUNMF</a>)와 안토파가스타(Antofagasta) (OTC:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ANFGF#OTC">ANFGF</a>)에 투자하고 있다.
그는 벤징가(Benzinga)에게 &#8220;자산 쟁탈전이 벌어지고 있다&#8221;고 말했다. &#8220;모두는 항상 구리에 더 많이 노출되기를 원한다.&#8221;
금광 회사들조차 구리 자산을 더 확대하는 데 관심을 갖고 있다.
작년에 미국에 본사를 둔 금광 메이저인 뉴몬트(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NEM#NYSE">NEM</a>)는 호주의 금광업체인 뉴크레스트 마이닝(Newcrest Mining Ltd.)을 거의 170억 달러에 인수하여 거의 500억 파운드에 달하는 구리 매장량과 자원을 단번에 추가했다.
한편, 캐나다에 본사를 둔 경쟁사인 배릭 골드(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOLD#NYSE">GOLD</a>)는 2028년 공장 생산 확대를 목표로 잠비아 구리 광산을 확장하기 위해 약 20억 달러를 지출하고 있다.
구리 생산업체에 대한 다양한 노출을 원하는 투자자는 Global X Copper Miners ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/COPX#NYSE">COPX</a>), Sprott Copper Miners ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/COPP#NASDAQ">COPP</a>), Sprott Junior Copper Miners ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/COPJ#NASDAQ">COPJ</a>) 및 iShares Copper and Metals Mining ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ICOP#NASDAQ">ICOP</a>)를 고려할 수 있다.
이제 읽어보세요: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/03/37924793/rising-copper-prices-portfolio-review-make-underperforming-anglo-american-stock-a-p">구리 가격 상승, 포트폴리오 검토로 결과가 나오지 않는 앵글로 아메리칸 주식</a>
사진: 앵글로 아메리칸의 칠레 구리 광산 사진 (출처: 앵글로 아메리카의 플리커)

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