SPDR S&P 500에 대한 매도 수량은 투자자에게 SPDR S&P 500의 주식 하락에 베팅하는 정도를 알려줍니다. 매도 수량 데이터는 2주마다 업데이트됩니다.

SPDR S&P 500 (ARCA:SPY), 공매도 수량 보고

SPDR S&P 500

Technology

Financial Services

Healthcare

Consumer Cyclical

Industrials

Consumer Defensive

Energy

Communication Services

Real Estate

Utilities

Basic Materials

Other

The Trust seeks to achieve its investment objective by holding a portfolio of the common stocks that are included in the index (the Portfolio), with the weight of each stock in the Portfolio substantially corresponding to the weight of such stock in the index.

Apple Inc

Microsoft Corp

Nvidia Corp.

Amazon.Com Inc

Meta Platforms, Inc.

Alphabet Inc

Alphabet Holding Company Inc.

Berkshire Hathaway Inc., Cl. B

Broadcom Inc

Tesla, Inc.

SPDR S&P 500 ETF

Equities

News

Economics

Federal Reserve

Markets

PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund

저명한 경제학자 모하메드 엘 에리언((Mohamed El-Erian)에 따르면, 향후 금리 정책에 대한 연준 위원들의 견해에 상당한 차이가 있다는 것은 2025년까지 시장에 영향을 미칠 수 있는 더 깊은 전략적 도전 과제를 시사한다.

모하메드 엘 에리언, 연준 내부의 엇갈린 견해로 &#34;더 큰 문제&#34;에 직면

$BTC

SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust

TSLA

수요일(18일) 미국 주식 시장은 심각한 매도세를 경험했다. 제롬 파월 연준 의장의 발언으로 인해 CNBC의 짐 크레이머가 &#34;엄청난 공황&#34;이라고 표현한 시장의 공포가 촉발된 것이다.
무슨 일 있었나: 짐 그레이머는 엑스(X) 게시물을 통해 &#34;사람들은 좋은 종목과 안 좋은 종목을 모두 처분하고 있는데, 이는 전형적인 인덱스 펀드의 행동”이라며 특히 소형주 실적에 대한 우려를 강조했다. &#34;소형주(러셀 2000 지수)를 좋아했던 사람들은 이제 어떻게 될까?&#34;

짐 크레이머, 연준의 매파적 전망으로 주가 급락 &#34;엄청난 공황&#34; 유발 경고

Analyst Color

Macro Economic Events

Broad U.S. Equity ETFs

ETFs

수요일(17일) 연준은 12월 FOMC에서 많은 사람들이 기대한 바와 같이 0.25%p 금리인하를 단행해 연방기금 금리를 4.25%~4.5% 범위로 낮췄다.이번 금리인하는 9월의 0.50%p 인하와 11월의 0.25%p 인하에 이은 세 번째 연속 인하로, 2023년 1월 이후 최저 수준으로 금리가 낮아졌다. 

연준의 금리인하와 2025년 전망에 대한 전문가 의견: &#34;올해 일찍 찾아온 산타, 내년에는 원치 않는 선물 줄 것&#34;

Tradr 2X Long SPY Weekly ETF

Simplify Exchange Traded Funds Simplify US Equity PLUS Convexity ETF

SPDR Series Trust SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 High Dividend ETF

SPDR Series Trust SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 Growth ETF

NEOS S&P 500 High Income ETF

Tradr 2X Long SPY Monthly ETF

Tradr 2X Long SPY Quarterly ETF

SPYR Technologies

Tidal Trust II Defiance S&P 500 Target Income ETF

Bank Of Montreal MAX S&P 500 4X Leveraged ETNs due October 30, 2043

SPDR Series Trust SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 Value ETF

SPDR S&P 500 Fossil Fuel Reserves Free ETF

A significant disparity in Federal Reserve officials&#8217; views on future interest rate policy points to deeper strategic challenges that could impact markets through 2025, according to prominent economist Mohamed El-Erian.
What Happened: El-Erian, Chief Economic Adviser at Allianz, highlighted the notable divergence in Fed officials&#8217; rate projections shown in the central bank&#8217;s latest &#8220;dot plot&#8221; released after its December meeting.
&#8220;This is part of a bigger problem &#8212; namely, the consistent absence of a strategic anchoring for policy formulation,&#8221; El-Erian wrote on X, formerly Twitter.
<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"> 
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">As shown in the Federal Reserve&#39;s latest &quot;dot plot&quot; (below), there is a notable dispersion in views among Fed officials regarding how the policy rate will evolve from here. This is part of a bigger problem &#8212; namely, the consistent absence of a strategic anchoring for policy… <a href="https://t.co/ojcoXyUrAe">pic.twitter.com/ojcoXyUrAe</a>
&mdash; Mohamed A. El-Erian (@elerianm) <a href="https://twitter.com/elerianm/status/1869504011931472152?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 18, 2024</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></div>
</figure>
The Fed&#8217;s latest projections show officials expect the federal funds rate to decline to around 3.5% by the end of 2025, down from the current 4.25%-4.5% range. However, individual forecasts among Federal Open Market Committee members vary significantly, reflecting uncertainty about the pace of rate cuts.
Why It Matters: This divergence comes as Fed Chair Jerome Powell signals a more cautious approach to monetary policy. During Wednesday&#8217;s press conference, Powell emphasized entering a &#8220;new phase&#8221; with slower, more <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/24/12/42563299/feds-powell-shocks-markets-its-a-new-phase-were-significantly-closer-to-neutral">deliberate rate adjustments</a> ahead.
Market reactions underscored investors&#8217; concerns about the Fed&#8217;s strategic direction. The S&amp;P 500 index — as tracked by the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) tumbled 2.6%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq dropped 3.5%. The U.S. dollar index, tracked by the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>) surged 1.2% to levels not seen since November 2022.
The dispersion in Fed views is particularly significant given persistent inflation challenges. Despite three rate cuts totaling 100 basis points in 2024, core PCE inflation remains <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/24/12/42563299/feds-powell-shocks-markets-its-a-new-phase-were-significantly-closer-to-neutral">above the Fed&#8217;s 2% target</a>, with officials now projecting 2.5% inflation through 2025.
El-Erian warned in his <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-12-16/the-fed-faces-an-important-choice-after-this-rate-cut">recent</a> Bloomberg Opinion column that this policy uncertainty could have meaningful implications during the first half of 2025, potentially affecting both U.S. economic performance and market stability.
Image via Federal Reserve
Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.

Mohamed El-Erian Warns Fed Faces 'Bigger Problem' As Diverging Views On Rate Policy Highlight Lack Of 'Strategic Anchoring'

The U.S. stock market experienced a severe selloff Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell&#8216;s comments triggered what CNBC&#8217;s Jim Cramer described as &#8220;incredible panic&#8221; in the markets.
What Happened: &#8220;People throwing away good and bad. Typical index fund behavior,&#8221; Cramer wrote on X, specifically highlighting concerns about small-cap stocks&#8217; performance. &#8220;And all of those people who loved the Small Caps (the Russell 2000?) now what??&#8221;
The market reaction came after Powell announced a 25-basis-point rate cut to 4.25%-4.5%, while signaling only two potential rate cuts in 2025 – fewer than the <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/econ-s/24/12/42561549/fed-slashes-interest-rates-by-0-25-as-predicted-december-dot-plot-flags-only-2-potential-cuts-in-2025">four projected in September</a>.
<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"> 
<div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">Incredible panic out there.. People throwing away good and bad. Typical index fund behavior. And all of those people who loved the Small Caps (the Russell 2000?) now what??
&mdash; Jim Cramer (@jimcramer) <a href="https://twitter.com/jimcramer/status/1869487562500497413?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 18, 2024</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></div>
</figure>
The selloff was broad and deep, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average, as tracked by the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DIA#NYSE">DIA</a>) plunging 2.48% to close at 42,326, marking its worst one-day drop since September 2022. 
The S&amp;P 500 index — tracked by the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) fell 2.9% to 5,872, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100, tracked by Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>), dropped 3.6% to 21,209.
Small-cap stocks, as measured by the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IWM#NYSE">IWM</a>), bore the brunt of the selling pressure, tumbling 4.4% to 2,231, completely erasing their post-election gains.
See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/24/12/42567704/micron-technology-quantum-corporation-meta-amazon-tesla-why-these-5-stocks-are-on-investors-radars-today">Micron Technology, Quantum Corporation, Meta, Amazon, Tesla: Why These 5 Stocks Are On Investors&#8217; Radars Today</a>
Why It Matters: The &#8220;Magnificent Seven&#8221; tech stocks collectively <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/econ-s/24/12/42564807/powell-triggers-market-carnage-vix-spikes-58-stocks-plummet-dollar-hits-2-year-highs-bitcoin-nosedives">lost over $600 billion in market value</a>, with Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>) leading the decline, down 8.2%.
Powell described the Fed&#8217;s approach as entering &#8220;a new phase&#8221; for monetary policy, emphasizing a more cautious stance on future rate cuts. The Fed now projects inflation to reach 2.5% in 2025, up from its <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/24/12/42563299/feds-powell-shocks-markets-its-a-new-phase-were-significantly-closer-to-neutral">previous estimate of 2.1%</a>.
The market anxiety was reflected in the CBOE Volatility Index, which surged 58% to 25, while the U.S. dollar climbed to two-year highs. Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) fell 5.32%, trading just below $100,000, and gold dropped 2.1% to $2,580 per ounce.
Read Next: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/movers/24/12/42567762/bitcoin-ethereum-dogecoin-fall-after-fed-shows-no-interest-for-piling-btc-top-analyst-says-sentiment-shifting-2025-suddenly-looks-a-lot-less-rosy">Bitcoin, Ethereum, Dogecoin Fall After Fed Shows No Interest For Piling BTC: Top Analyst Says Sentiment Shifting — &#8216;2025 Suddenly Looks A Lot Less Rosy&#8217;</a></li>
</ul>
AI-Generated Image Created Using MidJourney
Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.

Jim Cramer Warns Of 'Incredible Panic' As Jerome Powell's Hawkish Outlook Send Stocks Into Free Fall: 'People Throwing Away Good And Bad'

Leading technology company NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>) is one of many companies that could be impacted by the future White House administration <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/11/41768178/donald-trump-defeats-kamala-harris-to-win-2024-election">under President-elect</a> Donald Trump.
Here's a look back at Nvidia's performance during Trump's last term and the potential gains investors could have realized.
What Happened: Nvidia was<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/24/10/41595302/these-10-stocks-were-the-best-s-p-500-performers-in-2017-when-trump-was-president-will-history-repea"> one of the best performing </a>S&amp;P 500 stocks in 2017, the first year Trump served as president of the United States.
The stock ranked ninth for the year with a +81% return in 2017. From the date of Trump's inauguration on Jan. 20, 2017 to President Joe Biden's inauguration on Jan. 20, 2021, Nvidia shares gained more than 400%.
Nvidia was<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/education/24/10/41665149/these-10-stocks-were-s-p-500s-top-performers-in-bidens-first-year-could-the-trend-continue-if-h"> also a top performing </a>S&amp;P 500 sock in 2021, the first year of Biden&#8217;s term in office. The stock ranked ninth once again, gaining 125.5% in 2021.
The semiconductor company has been one of the top performers in recent years, joining the $1 trillion market capitalization club <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/23/05/32630114/nvidia-becomes-ninth-company-to-hit-1-trillion-market-cap-who-could-be-next-to-join-elusive-club">in May 2023 </a>and around a year later becoming the most valuable company in the world.
Nvidia <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/large-cap/24/11/41761849/nvidia-blows-past-apple-to-become-worlds-most-valuable-company">passed the milestone </a>of world's most valuable company several times in 2024 and is currently the third most valuable company in the world with a market capitalization of $3.16 trillion, trailing only Apple ($3.76 trillion) and Microsoft ($3.27 trillion).
While the impact of Trump on semiconductors, Taiwan, and the broader tech sector—and by extension, Nvidia&#8217;s share price—remains uncertain, history shows Nvidia tends to outperform in the first year of a new presidential term.
Are you buying when the CEOs of the Magnificent 7 are selling?
<ul>
<li>Stay in the know with our Insider Trades page — <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/sec/insider-trades/">see when leaders like Mark Zuckerberg, Elon Musk, and Jensen Huang are offloading their own shares.</a></li>
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Investing $1,000 in NVDA: Investors who bought and held onto Nvidia shares when Trump was inaugurated as president of the United States would likely be happy with their return.
Nvidia stock traded at a split-adjusted high of $2.67 on Jan. 20, 2017. A $1,000 investment could have purchased 374.53 NVDA shares at the time.
Today, that investment would be worth $48,309.58 based on a $128.97 price for Nvidia at the time of writing. The investment would be up 4,731.0% over the last nearly eight years.
For comparison, the same $1,000 invested in the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>), which tracks the S&amp;P 500, would have delivered significantly lower returns.
The $1,000 investment could have bought 4.40 SPY shares, which would be worth $2,594.06 today based on a price of $589.56 for SPY at the time of writing. This investment would be up 159.4% over the same time period.
Read Next: 
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/education/24/10/41190198/if-you-invested-1-000-in-nvidia-stock-when-jensen-huang-got-company-logo-tattoo-heres-how-much-">If You Invested $1,000 In Nvidia Stock When Jensen Huang Got Company Logo Tattoo, Here&#8217;s How Much You&#8217;d Have Today</a></li>
</ul>
Photo: Shutterstock

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NVDA

If You Invested $1,000 In NVIDIA Stock When Donald Trump Became President In 2017, Here's How Much You'd Have Now

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell adopted a hawkish stance during his Wednesday press conference after the December Fed meeting, sparking a market bloodbath as the New York session <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/24/12/42563299/feds-powell-shocks-markets-its-a-new-phase-were-significantly-closer-to-neutral">headed to the close.</a>
Although the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 0.25% to a range of 4.25%-4.5%, as widely anticipated, the updated economic projections suggest just two potential rate cuts in 2025 — down from four projected in September and fewer than the three anticipated by markets before the meeting.
Powell described the shift as &#8220;a new phase&#8221; for monetary policy, emphasizing that after 100 basis points of rate cuts in 2024, rates are now significantly closer to a neutral stance. 
Stocks tumbled across the board, the U.S. dollar soared to two-year highs and Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) cratered over 5%, as investors digested the reality of a shift in the monetary policy stance by the Federal Reserve.
The CBOE Volatility Index, known as the VIX and Wall Street&#8217;s fear gauge, skyrocketed 58% to 25, reflecting a spike in investor uncertainty and heightened anxiety over the future of interest rates.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="557" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/18161803/image-161-1024x557.png" alt="" class="wp-image-698569" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/18161803/image-161-1024x557.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/18161803/image-161-300x163.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/18161803/image-161-768x418.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/18161803/image-161-1536x836.png 1536w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/18161803/image-161.png 1920w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Wall Street Wipeout: Major Indices Slammed</h3>
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, as tracked by the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DIA#NYSE">DIA</a>), dropped 1,123 points, falling 2.6% to close at 42,326, marking its worst one-day drop since September 2022. Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>) recorded the worst performance among blue-chip stocks, down 4.6%.
The S&amp;P 500 index — tracked by the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) — fell 178 points, down 2.9% to 5,872, also marking its worst day since September 2022. Paycom Software Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PAYC#NYSE">PAYC</a>) was the major laggard within the S&amp;P 500, down 10%.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100, tracked by the Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>), experienced an even sharper drop of 3.6%, closing at 21,209 as interest rate-sensitive technology stocks took a beating. Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>) tumbled 8.1%, marking the worst performance within the Nasdaq 100.
Every Magnificent Seven company ended the day in the red, collectively erasing more than $600 billion in market value on Wednesday.
Small caps in the Russell 2000 posted the steepest losses, plummeting 4.7% to 2,225. With Wednesday&#8217;s move, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IWM#NASDAQ">IWM</a>) has fully erased the post-election rally.
All major U.S. equity sectors finished in the red. 
Consumer Discretionary stocks suffered the most, plunging 4.5%, followed by Real Estate, which dropped 4% as rising rates weigh heavily on growth-oriented and interest-rate-sensitive industries.
Technology, the largest sector by market capitalization, fell 3.2%, with chipmakers and software companies bearing the brunt of the selloff. 
Communications and Materials both declined 2.9%, while Financials dropped 3%, reflecting pressure across cyclical areas of the market.
Even traditionally defensive sectors failed to escape the selloff. Utilities and Consumer Staples fell 2.4% and 1.5%, respectively.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Dollar Surges To 2-Year Highs, Hammers Gold And Bitcoin</h3>
The U.S. dollar emerged as the day's clear winner, with the dollar index (DXY), followed by the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>), climbing 1.2% to reach its highest level since November 2022.
As the greenback rallied, gold failed to provide a safe haven, falling 2.1% to $2,580 per ounce, while silver dropped 3.5%.
Risk-off sentiment extended into alternative assets. Bitcoin plunged 5.5%, trading just above $101,500.
During the press conference, Powell was asked whether the U.S. government should consider building a strategic reserve of Bitcoin. Powell quickly dismissed the idea, making it clear that such a move is not on the Fed&#8217;s radar.
"We're not allowed to own Bitcoin," Powell said, emphasizing the legal and structural limitations of the Federal Reserve. "The Federal Reserve Act dictates what we can own, and we're not seeking any changes to that law."
Read Next: 
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/econ-s/24/12/42561549/fed-slashes-interest-rates-by-0-25-as-predicted-december-dot-plot-flags-only-2-potential-cuts-in-2025">Fed Slashes Interest Rates By 0.25% As Predicted: December Dot Plot Flags Only 2 Potential Cuts In 2025</a></li>
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Powell Triggers Market Carnage: VIX Spikes 58%, Stocks Plummet, Dollar Hits 2-Year Highs, Bitcoin Nosedives

The Federal Reserve announced a widely anticipated 25-basis-point interest rate cut at its December meeting Wednesday, lowering the federal funds rate to a <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/econ-s/24/12/42561549/fed-slashes-interest-rates-by-0-25-as-predicted-december-dot-plot-flags-only-2-potential-cuts-in-2025">range of 4.25% to 4.5%.</a>
The cut is the third consecutive reduction in borrowing costs following a 50-basis-point cut in September and a 25-basis-point move in November and brings rates to the lowest level since January 2023. 
Read Next: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/market-summary/24/12/42535400/americans-bought-less-but-paid-more-says-peter-schiff-experts-digest-november-retail-sales-data">&#8216;Americans Bought Less But Paid More,&#8217; Says Peter Schiff: Experts Digest November Retail Sales Data</a>
Tthe Fed now projects two additional 0.25% rate cuts in 2025, a meaningful revision from the full percentage point of cuts expected in September. Markets reacted sharply lower following the Fed's decision with the SPDR S&amp;P 500 (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) ending the session 2.98% lower at $586.28 and the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>) closing 3.61% lower at $516.47.
Expert Ideas: Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer for Northlight Asset Management, said that markets are forward-looking and reacted to the Fed's 2025 projection and not the quarter-point cut that it also delivered. 
"Santa came early and dropped a 25-bps rate cut in the market's stocking but accompanied it with a note saying that there would be coal next year," Zaccarelli said.&nbsp;
Bill Adams, chief economist for Comerica Bank, said the Fed is reacting to the incoming Trump administration's policies, which it sees as most likely to boost growth and inflation, as well as tighten the job market. 
Trump does not have much control over the pace of rate cuts in the near term, Adams said, but "that could change in 2026 if President-elect Trump gets the Senate to confirm a new Fed chair who is more sympathetic to his policy goals."
Charlie Ripley, senior investment strategist for Allianz Investment Management, highlighted the growing concerns around inflation and the Fed's dot-plot, which shows shallower rate cuts ahead in both 2025 and 2026. 
"The main takeaway from today's Fed meeting was that inflation risks are back, and the Fed is clearly concerned," Ripley said.&nbsp;
"The Fed has been able to maneuver 100 basis points of cuts so far in this cycle but given the trajectory of the economy and the recent uptick of inflation, it is going to be more difficult for the Fed to provide basis to continue cutting rates at the same pace," he added.&nbsp;
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Photo via Shutterstock.

'Santa Came Early' But Fed Brings 'Coal Next Year': Experts Weigh In On Interest Rate Cut, 2025 Projections

In a year marked by three consecutive rate cuts totaling 100 basis points, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the Fed is shifting gears to a more cautious stance heading into 2025 as interest rates move tantalizingly close to a neutral <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/econ-s/24/12/42561549/fed-slashes-interest-rates-by-0-25-as-predicted-december-dot-plot-flags-only-2-potential-cuts-in-2025">environment for the economy.</a>
Following the latest 25-basis-point reduction announced Wednesday, the federal funds rate now sits at 4.25%-4.5%, the lowest since January 2023.
&#8220;We&#8217;re significantly closer to neutral,&#8221; Powell said during the post-meeting press conference. &#8220;From this point forward, it's appropriate to move cautiously and look for further progress on inflation,&#8221; he added. 
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Powell Confirms Slower Rate Cuts On The Horizon</h3>
&#8220;I think from here it&#8217;s a new phase and we&#8217;re going to be cautious about further cuts," the Fed chair said.
The Fed&#8217;s December dot plot projects only two additional 25-basis-point cuts in 2025, compared to the four anticipated in September. The updated projections peg the federal funds rate at 3.9% by the end of next year and 3.4% by the close of 2026.
&#8220;With today&#8217;s action, we have lowered our policy rate by a full percentage point from its peak, and our policy stance is now significantly less restrictive,&#8221; Powell said. 
This shift toward caution was reflected in the FOMC's statement, which introduced new language about the &#8220;extent and timing&#8221; of future adjustments. 
Powell indicated that &#8220;extent&#8221; refers to how much room the Fed has left to cut rates without overstimulating the economy, while &#8220;timing&#8221; suggests a slower pace of change going forward.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Inflation Job Not Over, Labor Market Gradually Softer</h3>
Despite this year's progress, inflation remains a thorn in the Fed's side. 
Headline PCE inflation is now expected to reach 2.5% in 2025, up from the September estimate of 2.1%. Core PCE inflation is also forecast to hit 2.5%, up from 2.2% previously. 
Powell highlighted the challenges of achieving the Fed's 2% target: "While we've made a great deal of progress, it has been slower than we had hoped."
Despite the challenges, Powell struck a confident tone about the Fed's ability to bring inflation sustainably back to its 2% target. 
"We're not going to settle for anything less than 2%," Powell said. "It might take another year or two, but we are on the path."
Powell described conditions as &#8220;solid,&#8221; with the unemployment rate at 4.2%, the same as it was in July.
While job creation has slowed, Powell dismissed concerns of significant downside risks. "The labor market is gradually cooling in an orderly way," he said.
The hiring rate remains low, signaling reduced demand for workers, but layoffs are not increasing, Powell said. "This is a good labor market," he added. &#8220;Wages are growing at a healthy, sustainable pace, and we aim to keep it that way.&#8221;
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Trump And Tariffs Risks</h3>
Powell also addressed questions on fiscal policy risks under the incoming Trump administration and inflationary effects of tariffs.
When asked whether policymakers factored in risks tied to the potential policy shifts under a new Trump administration, Powell struck a measured tone, stating the Fed is monitoring potential fiscal developments but refraining from speculation until specific policies are announced. 
"We're in a good place, but fiscal changes can influence inflation and economic growth," he said.
&#8220;We're in the phase of monitoring potential outcomes, not making policy assumptions.&#8221;
On tariffs, Powell said that while one-time tariff-driven price increases don't always translate into persistent inflation, the Fed will take a &#8220;careful and measured approach&#8221; in evaluating the effects if new tariffs are enacted. 
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Market Plummets After Powell&#8217;s Remarks</h3>
Following Powell&#8217;s remarks, Fed futures imply just 37 basis points of cuts in 2025, down from 49 basis points immediately after the Fed statement. 
The S&amp;P 500 index — as tracked by the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) — extended its session losses during Powell&#8217;s press conference, tumbling by 2.6%, eyeing its worst session since September 2022.
The Nasdaq 100 tumbled by 3.5%, the Dow fell 2.3% and small cap stocks in the Russell 2000 tanked over 4%. 
The U.S. dollar index, trackd by the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>), rocketed by 1.2%, reaching highs last seen in November 2022.
Gold plummeted over 2% and silver fell by 3.5%.
Bitcoin nosedived by 5.5%, hovering around $100,000.
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Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks at Dec. 18, 2024 press conference following interest rate cut. Photo courtesy of the Federal Reserve.

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