SPDR S&P 500에 대한 매도 수량은 투자자에게 SPDR S&P 500의 주식 하락에 베팅하는 정도를 알려줍니다. 매도 수량 데이터는 2주마다 업데이트됩니다.

SPDR S&P 500 (ARCA:SPY), 공매도 수량 보고

SPDR S&P 500

Technology

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Healthcare

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Industrials

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Utilities

Basic Materials

Other

The Trust seeks to achieve its investment objective by holding a portfolio of the common stocks that are included in the index (the Portfolio), with the weight of each stock in the Portfolio substantially corresponding to the weight of such stock in the index.

Apple Inc

Microsoft Corp

Nvidia Corp.

Amazon.Com Inc

Meta Platforms, Inc.

Alphabet Inc

Alphabet Holding Company Inc.

Berkshire Hathaway Inc., Cl. B

Broadcom Inc

Tesla, Inc.

SPDR S&P 500 ETF

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$BTC

MSTR

NVDA

현재 주식 시장 환경은 리서치 어필리에이츠의 창립자이자 회장인 롭 아노트(Rob Arnott)에 따르면 닷컴 버블의 정점을 연상시킨다고 한다. 아노트는 가까운 미래에 상당한 조정이 있을 것으로 예측하고 있다.

전설적인 투자가 롭 아노트는 &#34;현재 주식 시장이 2000년과 비슷&#34;하다며 조정 하락장 전망

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ETFs

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WYNN

목요일(14일) 제롬 파월 연방준비제도 의장의 예상치 못한 매파적 발언이 시장을 뒤흔들었다. 미국 주요 주가지수는 하락세로 마감했고 달러는 5일 연속으로 급등했다.
파월 의장은 댈러스 비즈니스 리더들을 대상으로 한 연설에서 미국 경제의 놀라운 강점을 강조하며 연준이 &#34;금리인하를 서두를 필요가 없다&#34;고 말했다.

시장 뒤흔든 파월 연준 의장의 매파적 발언: 주가 하락, 달러 급등, 비트코인 하락

Politics

Econ #s

화요일(12일) 닐 카시카리 미니애폴리스 연은 총재는 미국 인플레이션 데이터가 예상보다 높게 나오면 연준이 12월 금리인하를 보류할 수 있다고 말했다. 카시카리 총재는 야후파이낸스와의 인터뷰에서 인플레이션, 노동 시장, 도널드 트럼프 관세의 잠재적 영향에 대한 견해를 공유하며 몇 가지 예상치 못한 관점을 제시하기도 했다.

연준의 닐 카시카리, 깜짝 물가상승 시 &#34;12월 금리인하 보류&#34; 경고

Tradr 2X Long SPY Weekly ETF

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SPDR Series Trust SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 High Dividend ETF

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SPYR Technologies

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Bank Of Montreal MAX S&P 500 4X Leveraged ETNs due October 30, 2043

SPDR Series Trust SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 Value ETF

SPDR S&P 500 Fossil Fuel Reserves Free ETF

The current stock market environment is reminiscent of the<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/24/07/39589689/ai-boom-spurs-nvidia-led-us-stock-market-rally-experts-draw-parallels-with-dotcom-bubble-no-one-"> dot-com bubble peak,</a> according to Rob Arnott, the founder and chairman of Research Affiliates. Arnott predicts a significant pullback in the near future.
What Happened: Arnott, who is known for his early predictions of bull market tops, sees parallels between the current market and the dot-com bubble peak, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-crash-rob-arnott-warns-bear-market-tech-bubble-2024-11">reported</a> Business Insider. He does not anticipate an immediate significant pullback but foresees a substantial decline in the near future.
Arnott&#8217;s observations come as the S&amp;P 500, a large-cap index dominated by mega-cap growth firms, surged 5% within <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/24/11/41977313/will-trumps-election-win-push-sp-500-even-higher-in-final-weeks-of-2024-over-75-say">a week following the election</a> of Donald Trump, closing above 6,000 for the first time. This rapid increase is the latest development in a 66% rally that has lasted over two years.
&#8220;This looks and feels like the year 2000 to me,&#8221; Arnott told the publication. 
&#8220;Are we likely to see a bear market in the next two years for large-cap growth? Yeah.&#8221;
The market&#8217;s record highs are driven by a strong economy and optimism about artificial intelligence and business-friendly policies from the future Trump administration. However, Arnott believes that the AI optimism, which has been the primary driver of the rally, is already fully priced in.
See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/24/11/42017638/activist-hedge-fund-valueact-boosts-meta-stake-with-121m-bet-but-ceo-morfit-supports-mark-zuckerberg" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Activist Hedge Fund ValueAct Boosts Meta Stake With $121M Bet, But CEO Morfit Supports Mark Zuckerberg's AI Vision: Here's What Investors Should Know</a>
Arnott points to the S&amp;P 500&#8217;s Shiller cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio, which is at levels comparable to the dot-com bubble peak. At 37 times earnings, just below the late-2021 peak of 38, before the market fell by 25%, and the 2000 peak of 43, right before a 50% loss.
Arnott also highlights the potential threats to the market&#8217;s bullish narrative, such as the rise of competition for companies like Nvidia (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>) and a slower-than-expected pace of AI adoption. However, he added that companies like Nvidia are expected to maintain their 90% market share even as competition intensifies and chip prices eventually decrease.
&#8220;Well, Intel is teetering perilously close to irrelevance, and Nvidia wasn&#8217;t on anyone&#8217;s radar screen five years ago. So disruptors get disrupted.&#8221;
Why It Matters: Arnott&#8217;s warning echoes concerns raised by other market experts. In October, Billionaire Jeremy Grantham warned that the current economy is <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/24/10/41145356/billionaire-who-predicted-2008-crash-and-dot-com-bubble-calls-the-current-economy-the-most-vulnerabl">the most vulnerable market ever.</a> This was after the U.S. stock market&#8217;s surge, fueled by the promise of artificial intelligence, drew comparisons to the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s.
These concerns are particularly relevant given the recent performance of MicroStrategy Inc., whose shares<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/24/11/41892752/microstrategy-shares-hit-24-year-high-jumps-most-since-dot-com-bubble-as-bitcoin-trades-at-record-levels"> hit a 24-year high</a>, marking the highest level since the dot-com bubble in March 2000. This surge was fueled by the rise in Bitcoin (CRYPTO: Bitcoin), a crucial asset held by the company in its portfolio.
Price Action: The S&amp;P 500 Index closed at 5,870.62 points on Friday, it has yielded 23.78% on a year-to-date basis and 30.22% over the last year. The SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) which tracks the S&amp;P 500 Index has had a similar momentum in 2024.
Read Next: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/24/11/42025179/chamath-palihapitiya-regrets-this-3-or-4-billion-crypto-mistake-as-bitcoin-rises-above-90000-would-have-made-a-lot-more-money" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Chamath Palihapitiya Regrets This &#8216;$3 Or $4 Billion&#8217; Crypto Mistake As Bitcoin Rises Above $90,000: &#8216;Would Have Made…A Lot More Money&#8217;</a>
Image via Unsplash

Legendary Investor Rob Arnott Says Stock Market 'Looks And Feels Like The Year 2000' As Wall Street Rallies After Trump's Win: '...Likely To See A Bear Market'

<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OAHHA27td-A" title="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OAHHA27td-A">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OAHHA27td-A</a> &nbsp;

Fed's Barkin Says Taking Univerted Yield Curve As Good News; Since Fed Began Cutting Rates, Demand Data Has Come In Stronger; We Don't Control The Long-End Of The Yield Curve

<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OAHHA27td-A" title="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OAHHA27td-A">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OAHHA27td-A</a>

Fed's Barkin Says Low-Hiring, Low-firing Environment Will Give Way To Something Else; Not Hearing Layoffs On Any Scale; We Are Restrictive Enough; Hard To Know If Very, Or Somewhat, Or A Little Restrictive; We Can Recalibrate Rates To A Somewhat Less Restrictive Level; So Much Data Between Now And December

Fed's Barkin  Always Have Expected Core PCE Would Stay In The High Twos In H2; I Am Still Seeing Progress On Inflation; Pricing Power Is Getting More Limited; I Hope That In Q1 Inflation Numbers Will Come Down; It's My Expectation As Well; We Are A Long Way From Know What Will Happen With Tariffs, Hard To Know The Impact

<a href="https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/113488754953884936" title="https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/113488754953884936">https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/113488754953884936</a>

President-elect Trump Nominates North Dakota Governor, Doug Burgum, To Join Administration As Secretary Of The Interior And As Chairman Of Newly Formed National Energy Council

Risk aversion dominated Wall Street in the final session of the week, driving <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets">sharp losses across major indices</a>.
Investors grappled with growing uncertainties surrounding the economic impacts of Donald Trump's policies and the <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/interest-rates">Federal Reserve&#8217;s next moves.</a>
Fed Chair Jerome Powell's remarks from the previous day weighed heavily on risk assets. Powell signaled no need to lower rates, citing the economy's resilience and emphasizing the importance of fully finishing the inflation jobs. 
Boston Fed President Susan Collins added to the uncertainty on Friday, stating she needs to see additional data before deciding on further rate cuts at the Federal Reserve&#8217;s upcoming policy meeting.
Expectations for a 25-basis-point rate cut in December were significantly scaled back, with odds falling to 59%, down from 82% just a day earlier.
U.S. indices are poised to end the week in negative territory, as optimism fueled by Trump's win fizzled. Tech stocks were hit hardest, with the Nasdaq 100 plunging 2.5%, wiping out its post-election gains. 
Chipmakers tumbled across the board, with the iShares Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SOXX#NASDAQ">SOXX</a>) reaching a 2-month low, as Applied Materials Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMAT#NASDAQ">AMAT</a>) released a disappointing outlook.
The surge in rate-cut uncertainty and broader economic concerns pushed the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) up by more than 17%, reflecting heightened market fear.
Treasury yields edged lower, indicating a flight to safe-haven bonds. The drop in yields supported the Japanese yen, which ended a four-day losing streak.
The U.S. dollar eased but remains on track for its seventh consecutive week of gains, marking its longest winning streak since September 2023.
Gold prices remained flat despite falling yields and a softer dollar, failing to act as a hedge in a turbulent session. Meanwhile, Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) defied the risk-off sentiment, rising 2.5% to $89,600 in a surprising show of strength.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Friday&#8217;s Performance In Major US Indices, ETFs</h3>
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Major Indices</td>
<td>Price</td>
<td>1-day %chg</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Dow Jones</td>
<td>43,416.20</td>
<td>-0.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>S&amp;P 500</td>
<td>5,869.72</td>
<td>-1.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Russell 2000</td>
<td>2,302.85</td>
<td>-1.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nasdaq 100</td>
<td>20,391.40</td>
<td>-2.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>CBOE VIX</td>
<td>16.79</td>
<td>17.3%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Updated at 1:00 p.m. ET</figcaption></figure>
According to&nbsp;<a href="https://bzresearch.myclickfunnels.com/benzinga-pro-content-webinar-registration/?utm_source=BZprocontent111424&amp;t=be2bearmibe3na1">Benzinga Pro</a>&nbsp;data:
<ul>
<li>The&nbsp;SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) fell 1.4% to $585.28.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DIA#NYSE">DIA</a>)&nbsp;fell 0.8% to $434.08.</li>
<li>The tech-heavy&nbsp;Invesco QQQ Trust Series&nbsp;(NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>) fell 2.5% to $496.12.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;iShares Russell 2000 ETF&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IWM#NYSE">IWM</a>) tumbled 1.4% to $228.75.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLU#NYSE">XLU</a>) outperformed, rising 0.8%. The&nbsp;Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLY#NYSE">XLY</a>) lagged, down 2.7%.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Friday&#8217;s Stock Movers</h3>
<ul>
<li>Palantir Technologies Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PLTR#NYSE">PLTR</a>) skyrocketed 8.4%, on news that the AI-champion will be included in the Nasdaq 100 index. </li>
<li>Walt Disney Co. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DIS#NYSE">DIS</a>) rose over 4%, fueling stock momentum after the 6.2% gain on Thursday amid stronger than expected earnings. </li>
<li>Alcoa Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AA#NYSE">AA</a>) rallied over 8% after China announced to end its export-tax rebate for aluminum from Dec. 1. </li>
</ul>
Stocks reacting on earnings reports were: 
<ul>
<li>Globant S.A. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLOB#NYSE">GLOB</a>), down 11%. </li>
<li>AST SpaceMobile Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ASTS#NASDAQ">ASTS</a>), down 13.8%, </li>
<li>Post Holdings Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/POST#NYSE">POST</a>), down 2.8%. </li>
</ul>
Now Read:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/regulations/24/11/42013424/trumps-musk-ramaswamy-doge-plan-what-it-means-for-defense-and-it-stocks">Trump&#8217;s DOGE Plan: Goldman Sachs Says Defense Stocks Face Risks, IT Firms Could Win</a></li>
</ul>
Image: Shutterstock

Sector ETFs

AMAT

ASTS

GLOB

PLTR

POST

iShares PHLX SOX Semiconductor Sector Index Fund

SOXX

Select Sector SPDR-Consumer Discretionary

Stocks Tumble As Traders Rethink Fed's Action, VIX Spikes 17%, Nasdaq Erases Post-Trump Gains: What's Driving Markets Friday?

Macro Economic Events

Fed's Goolsbee Says Neutral Is Significantly Lower Than Where Fed Policy Rate Is Now; If Productivity Growth Stays Higher Than Trend, Need To Be Careful Relying On GDP Growth Rate To Check If Economy Is Overheating

Fed's Goolsbee Says Everything Is Always On The Fed Policy Table; Inflation Numbers Have To Keep Improving; If Started To See Reversal On Inflation Progress, Would Have To Figure Out If It Is A Bump; Not A Lot Has Changed On That In Last Couple Weeks; Recent Inflation Has Been A Little Higher Than Target, If That Is Extended, It's Too High; There's A Lot Of Volatility On Inflation Data Series

Fed's Goolsbee Asked About A December Rate-Cut Pause, Says He Doesn't Like Tying Our Hands, Still More Data To Come; Markets React Immediately And In Most Extreme Terms; That's Not The Fed Timetable; Fed Needs To Focus On Longer Trends; We Are Going To Be Looking At Rate Cuts Along The Lines Of September Fed Policymaker Projections; Personally Comfortable With Not Charging Right Towards Neutral, Slow Down As We Approach It

<a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2024/11/15/trump-transition-steven-cheung-communications-director-00189857">https://www.politico.com/news/2024/11/15/trump-transition-steven-cheung-communications-director-00189857</a>
Steven Cheung, who served as Donald Trump's principal spokesperson on his 2024 campaign and also served on his 2020 and 2016 campaigns, is joining the White House as communications director, according to a person with direct knowledge of the matter.
Cheung has been a near constant presence at Trump's side and a key member of his tight-knit presidential campaign, run by Susie Wiles and Chris LaCivita.

'Trump To Tap Campaign Spokesperson Steven Cheung As Communications Director' - Politico

U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count -1 At 478; U.S. Baker Hughes NatGas Rig Count -1 At 101; U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 584 Vs 585 Prior

- Reuters&nbsp; WASHINGTON, Nov 15 (Reuters) - Reports that billionaire Elon Musk has held multiple calls with Russian officials, including President Vladimir Putin, should be investigated by the Pentagon and law-enforcement agencies on national-security grounds, two senior Democratic senators said in a letter seen by Reuters on Friday.
Musk, who has been appointed to a senior government role by Republican President-elect Donald Trump, oversees billions of dollars in Pentagon and intelligence-community contracts as CEO of aerospace company SpaceX.
Senator Jeanne Shaheen, a senior Foreign Relations Committee member, and Senate Armed Services Committee chair Jack Reed told U.S. Attorney General Merrick Garland and the Pentagon's inspector general that Musk's involvement in those SpaceX programs should be probed for potential debarment and exclusion after reports as recent as October of his conversations with Russian officials. Debarment refers to exclusion from certain contracts and privileges.
"These relationships between a well-known U.S. adversary and Mr. Musk, a beneficiary of billions of dollars in U.S. government funding, pose serious questions regarding Mr. Musk's reliability as a government contractor and a clearance holder," the lawmakers said in a joint letter dated on Friday.
Several Democratic lawmakers have publicly called for a probe into Musk's communications with Moscow since a Wall Street Journal report last month on the alleged contact, but the letter to the U.S. officials who could launch such an investigation has not been previously reported.
The call by Shaheen and Reed for a federal probe is a longshot effort as Trump prepares to return to the White House with backing from Musk, who spent over $119 million on Trump's reelection campaign and was appointed co-head of the president-elect's forthcoming Department of Government Efficiency.
SpaceX, Musk and the Pentagon did not immediately respond to requests for comment. The Pentagon and Justice Department did not immediately respond to similar requests.
REPORTS OF RUSSIAN CONTACT
Reports of Musk's contact with Russian officials emerged in 2022, when political scientist Ian Bremmer, president of consulting firm Eurasia Group, said he was told by Musk that he had spoken with Putin about the Ukraine war and Russia's red line for using nuclear weapons. Musk denied Bremmer's claim and said he had only spoken to Putin 18 months earlier, about space.
Last month, the Wall Street Journal reported Musk has had multiple conversations with Russian officials including Putin and his first deputy chief of staff Sergei Kiriyenko, citing unnamed U.S., European and Russian officials.
Shaheen and Reed said in the letter it was "deeply concerning" that Musk reportedly had conversations with Kiriyenko. He was charged this year with other Russian officials by the U.S. Justice Department for spearheading an AI-powered propaganda campaign on Musk's social-media platform X and other sites to promote Russian interests and influence voters ahead of the U.S. presidential election.
Musk has publicly claimed he holds a U.S. security clearance, giving him access to secret information at SpaceX, which holds billions of dollars in Pentagon and NASA launch contracts. The company also has a $1.8-billion intelligence-community contract to build a vast spy satellite network, Reuters has reported.
"Communications between Russian government officials and any individual with a security clearance have the potential to put our security at risk," the lawmakers said in the letter.
Tensions between the U.S. and Russia in space have spiked since Russia's 2022 Ukraine invasion. Pentagon officials have condemned suspect maneuvers by Russian satellites in orbit and this year accused Russia of developing a space-based nuclear weapon capable of disabling large satellite networks.
Musk's SpaceX has come to dominate the U.S. space industry and is relied on heavily by NASA and the Pentagon.
The company's Starlink internet network of nearly 7,000 satellites has made SpaceX the world's largest satellite operator and a disruptive force in the satellite internet sector, with heavy interest from the Pentagon for military communications. Ukraine's military relies heavily on Starlink for battlefield connectivity.
The senators sent a separate letter on Friday to U.S. Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall saying Musk's reported conversations raise the need for more competition in the launch and satellite communications industries and to use more companies besides SpaceX for sensitive national-security missions.
"Mr. Musk's reported behavior could pose serious risks to national security, and as CEO of a company with billions of dollars in sensitive defense and intelligence contracts, warrant reconsideration of SpaceX's outsized role in (the Department of Defense's) commercial space integration," the lawmakers said.

TSLA

Democratic Senators Call For Pentagon And DOJ Investigation Into Musk's Alleged Calls With Russian Officials Amid National Security Concerns; Urge Probe Of SpaceX Government Contracts

WIIM

Major indexes are lower amid weakness in chip and pharma stocks and as investors assess president-elect Trump's nominees.

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/2024-11-15_08h38_46.png" alt="" style="width:624px" /></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Powell Speaks The Truth</h3>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-powell-speech-trump-appointments-spy-mc-11152024">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&amp;P 500 (SPX).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>It is worth a reminder that The Arora Report is politically agnostic.&nbsp; Our sole job is to help our members extract the maximum amount of money out of the markets with the least possible risk.</li>
<li>The price action on the chart shows that the rip roaring Trump rally is taking a breather.</li>
<li>The chart shows that the stock market is still above the breakout line.</li>
<li>RSI on the chart shows that the stock market has pulled back, reflecting a loss of momentum. The stock market is still overbought.</li>
<li>The chart shows that the volume remains low.&nbsp; This indicates that institutional investors are not rushing to buy stocks.</li>
<li>Yesterday, Powell spoke that truth – the market did not like it.&nbsp; Powell said, "The economy is not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates."&nbsp; Powell elaborated, "The strength we are currently seeing in the economy gives us the ability to approach our decisions carefully."</li>
<li>Powell's remarks brought some selling into stocks and bonds.</li>
<li>This morning, in the early trade, selling continues.</li>
<li>The reason for some selling is that the prevailing wisdom on Wall Street has been that another rate cut in December was a sure thing.&nbsp; The Arora Report has been questioning Wall Street's wisdom and sharing with you that the data does not support another rate cut.</li>
<li>Some conservative commentators are upset believing that the reason Powell started rate cuts with a 50 bps cut was to help Kamala Harris get elected.&nbsp; Now that Trump has been elected, Powell is in no hurry to cut rates.</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, even though the data does not support a rate cut in December, Powell is going to feel pressure from Trump and Republicans to cut rates.&nbsp; There is also a significant amount of data between now and the December Fed meeting.</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, based on a 360 degree view, including the political pressure and the pressure from Wall Street to cut rates, the probability of a rate cut in December is now about 60%.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>There is consternation about several Trump picks.&nbsp; Impacting the market most are Trump's picks of RKF Jr, Matt Gaetz, and Pete Hegseth.&nbsp; These picks are bringing selling in vaccine makers such as Moderna Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MRNA#NASDAQ">MRNA</a>), BioNTech SE ADR (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BNTX#NASDAQ">BNTX</a>), Novavax Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVAX#NASDAQ">NVAX</a>), Merck &amp; Co Inc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MRK#NYSE">MRK</a>), and Pfizer Inc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PFE#NYSE">PFE</a>).&nbsp; There is also selling in other healthcare stocks, including weight loss drug companies Eli Lilly And Co (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/LLY#NYSE">LLY</a>) and Novo Nordisk A/S (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVO#NYSE">NVO</a>), and packaged food stocks such as The Kraft Heinz Co (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/KHC#NASDAQ">KHC</a>).&nbsp; There is also selling in defense stocks such as Boeing Co (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BA#NYSE">BA</a>), Lockheed Martin Corp (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/LMT#NYSE">LMT</a>), Northrop Grumman Corp (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NOC#NYSE">NOC</a>), and Rtx Corp (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/RTX#NYSE">RTX</a>).&nbsp; There is also selling in big tech stocks.</li>
<li>The latest economic data is strong.&nbsp; The U.S. economy is about 70% consumer based.&nbsp; For this reason, prudent investors pay attention to retail sales.&nbsp; Here are the details of the just released data:
<ul>
<li>Retail sales came at 0.4% vs. 0.3% consensus.</li>
<li>Retail sales ex-auto came at 0.1% vs. 0.2% consensus.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>There are hundreds of indicators.&nbsp; At The Arora Report, the system has been refined through decades of research to share with you only those indicators that matter.&nbsp; Normally, we do not mention the NY Fed Empire State Manufacturing Index.&nbsp; Today, we are mentioning it due to its exceptional strength.&nbsp; The index came at 31.2 vs. 3.3 consensus.&nbsp; This indicates that manufacturing in the New York area has picked up steam. &nbsp; If similar strength is happening in the rest of the country, that would argue against further cutting interest rates. The problem for investors is that stock valuations are so high that to sustain them, rate cuts are needed.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h3>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>), Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>), Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>), Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>), Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>), and NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in S&amp;P 500 ETF (SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h3>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.  Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.  The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).  The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).  The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h3>
Even the slightest dips in Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) are being bought.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h3>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.&nbsp; The proprietary protection band from The Arora Report is very popular.&nbsp; The protection band puts all of the data, all of the indicators, all of the news, all of the crosscurrents, all of the models, and all of the analysis in an analytical framework that is easily actionable by investors.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h3>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

Market Summary

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NVAX

Powell Speaks The Truth - Market Does Not Like It, Consternation About Kennedy, Gaetz, And Hegseth

<a href="https://www.wsj.com/politics/larry-kudlow-economic-role-trump-cabinet-3af2a446?mod=latest_headlines">https://www.wsj.com/politics/larry-kudlow-economic-role-trump-cabinet-3af2a446?mod=latest_headlines</a>
<a href="https://www.wsj.com/topics/person/donald-trump">Donald Trump</a> is considering tapping Fox Business Network host Larry Kudlow for a senior economic policy role in his administration, according to people familiar with the matter, amid the president-elect's mounting frustration with <a href="https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/trump-transition-co-chair-makes-late-play-for-treasury-secretary-f1b50c60?mod=article_inline">jockeying for top jobs</a>.
Kudlow met with Trump at Mar-a-Lago, the president-elect's private Florida club, late this week, the people said. Trump's advisers see Kudlow as a contender to lead the National Economic Council and possibly the Treasury Department.&nbsp;

'Trump Considers Fox Business Host Larry Kudlow For Top Economic Jobs; Former National Economic Council Director Met With Trump At Mar-A-Lago This Week' - WSJ

<a href="https://suspilne.media/881015-zelenskij-z-administracieu-trampa-vijna-zaversitsa-svidse/" title="https://suspilne.media/881015-zelenskij-z-administracieu-trampa-vijna-zaversitsa-svidse/">https://suspilne.media/881015-zelenskij-z-administracieu-trampa-vijna-zaversitsa-svidse/</a>

Macro Notification

Zelenskiy Tells Ukraine's Suspilne Broadcaster: War Will 'End Sooner' Under Trump Administration

<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/live/us" title="https://www.bloomberg.com/live/us">https://www.bloomberg.com/live/us</a>

Fed's Collins: Not Seeing Evidence Of New Inflation Pressures; The Job Market Looks Like Full Employment Conditions; Sees Healthy Labor Market Conditions; Doesn't See Big Urgency To Lower Rates, But Wants To Preserve Healthy Economy; Won't Speculate About What Trump Will Do On Economy; Tariffs Can Be A Driver Of Inflation

Fed's Collins Says No Preset Path For Monetary Policy; Economy Is In A Very Good Place Right Now; Fed Policy Is Well Positioned; Won't Take A December Easing Off Table; Data Will Determine What Fed Does In December

<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-15/xi-warns-against-going-back-in-history-as-trump-tariffs-loom">https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-15/xi-warns-against-going-back-in-history-as-trump-tariffs-loom</a>
Chinese President Xi Jinping warned against any efforts to unwind globalization in his first major remarks since Donald Trump won the US presidential election after threatening to impose tariffs as high as 60% on the world's second-biggest economy.

"Xi Warns Against 'Going Back in History' as Trump Tariffs Loom" - Bloomberg News

<a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/germanys-scholz-russias-putin-hold-phone-call-friday-bloomberg-reports-2024-11-15/" title="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/germanys-scholz-russias-putin-hold-phone-call-friday-bloomberg-reports-2024-11-15/">https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/germanys-scholz-russias-putin-hold-phone-call-friday-bloomberg-reports-2024-11-15/</a>

Putin And Germany's Scholz Hold Phone Call Initiated By Germany, Discuss Ukraine And Middle East; Putin Emphasizes Openness To Ukraine Talks, Notes Degradation In Russia-Germany Relations, And Stresses Security And Territorial Concerns

Today's article talking ES, yields, VIX, PMs and oil, and more.

Buy The Blood In The Streets?

Week Ahead: Powerful Forces Rippling Through The Capital Markets Do Not Appear Exhausted

The 1-Minute Market Report - November 17, 2024

Inability to rally to a new high after coming so close is not encouraging news for small-cap bulls. All other major equity indices have left their highs from 2021 and 2022 behind, but not the Russell 2000.

Peeking Into The Future Via CoT - Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

SPX: Sell The Trump Rally Before The Profit Bubble Bursts

Powell's "no hurry" stance on rate cuts reshapes our near-term outlook.

Hurry Up and Wait

Stocks finished the week broadly lower, giving back more than half of the post-election gains. Small-cap stocks, the recent darlings, as well as rate sensitive stock took the biggest hit.

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