iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ: TLT)

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iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF

The fund generally invests at least 90% of its assets in the bonds of the underlying index and at least 95% of its assets in U.S. government bonds. The underlying index measures the performance of public obligations of the U.S. Treasury that have a remaining maturity greater than or equal to twenty years.

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As American families gather to celebrate Independence Day, many investors and traders are curious about the market schedule <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/money/is-the-stock-market-open-on-july-4th">for the July Fourth holiday</a>.
Here's a concise guide to help you navigate the trading week around this holiday.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Market Schedule Overview Around Independence Day</h3>
The U.S. stock markets, including the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and the NASDAQ, will be closed on Thursday, July 4, 2024, in observance of Independence Day. 
Additionally, it's important to note that both the NYSE and NASDAQ also observed an early closure on Wednesday, July 3, 2024. Trading ended at 1:00 PM Eastern Time (ET).
The bond markets, including the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA), will follow a similar schedule. The bond markets closed early at 2:00 PM ET on July 3 and will remain closed on July 4.
While the U.S. markets will be closed, international markets will follow their respective schedules. European and Asian markets, for example, will operate on their normal trading hours. Foreign exchange markets will remain open.
Thin trading volumes and liquidity in international markets are common on days when Wall Street is closed.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">FTSE 100 And UK Elections</h3>
On July 4, 2024, the United Kingdom will be holding parliamentary elections. 
Despite the relevant political event, the London Stock Exchange (LSE) and the FTSE 100 Index will remain open for trading. The FTSE 100 operates on its normal schedule and will not be closed due to the elections. This provides investors with the opportunity to trade as usual.
However, U.S.-based exchange-traded funds tracking UK stocks, as the iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EWU#NYSE">EWU</a>), will not be trading.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Normal Trading Hours Resume Friday: All Eyes On US Labor Market</h3>
Trading will resume as usual on Friday, July 5, 2024. Both the NYSE and NASDAQ will operate on their normal schedules. They will open at 9:30 AM ET and close at 4:00 PM ET.
Traders will be particularly attentive on Friday, July 5, as the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is set to release its jobs report for June at 8:30 AM ET.
In this <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/07/39620397/june-jobs-report-preview-cooling-labor-market-trends-may-further-bolster-rate-cut-h">preview</a>, we highlighted that analysts predict that both employment and salary growth in June will show a deceleration compared to previous months. 
Nonfarm payrolls are predicted to decline from 272,000 in May to 189,000 in June. Average hourly earnings are anticipated to rise by 0.3%, down from May's 0.4%. 
However, conflicting data from different surveys suggests potential surprises. 
The last jobs report for May, published on June 7, triggered a sharp rise in Treasury yields, sending the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) down by 1.8% on that day. U.S. stocks ended the session broadly flat, with the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) unchanged and the tech-heavy Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>) down 0.1%. 
Read now: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/07/39616016/private-employers-add-150-000-jobs-in-june-less-than-expected-job-growth-solid-but-">Private Employers Add 150,000 Jobs In June, Less Than Expected: Job Growth &#8216;Solid, But Not Broad-Based&#8217;</a></li>
</ul>

Is The Market Open On July Fourth? Everything You Need To Know

The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices surged to new all-time highs on Thursday, as investors heightened their expectations for rate cuts following June&#8217;s sharply lower-than-expected services sector activity, which experienced its worst <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/07/39618958/us-services-sector-activity-experiences-largest-contraction-in-over-4-years-gold-ra">contraction since May 2020. </a>
Market-implied odds of a Fed rate cut in September rose from 65% to 72%, according to CME Group&#8217;s FedWatch tool, with traders pricing in more than 50 basis points of rate cuts by year end, implying two fully priced rate reductions by the Fed. 
Risk sentiment was particularly strong ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes, slated to be released at 2:00 p.m. ET. 
Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>) and the chip making industry, as tracked by the iShares Semiconductor ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SOXX#NYSE">SOXX</a>), rebounded, up 3.7% and 1.9%, respectively.
Strong gains also stemmed from gold miners, with the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GDX#NYSE">GDX</a>) up 4.2%, eyeing one of the best-performing sessions year to date, driven by rising metal prices. 
Expectations of lower interest rates fueled gold prices up by 1.4%, silver up by 3.5%, and copper up by 2.6%. 
Treasury yields weakened sharply, with both the 10-year and 30-year yields down 7 basis points. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) rose 1.1%, rallying the most since June 13. 
However, the crypto market faltered, with Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) down 2.7% to $60,450.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Wednesday&#8217;s Performance In Major US Indices, ETFs</h3>
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Major Indices</td>
<td>Price</td>
<td>1-day %chg</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nasdaq 100</td>
<td>20,168.73</td>
<td>0.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>S&amp;P 500</td>
<td>5,531.06</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Russell 2000</td>
<td>202.16</td>
<td>0.1 %</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Dow Jones</td>
<td>39,273.72</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Updated at 12:28 p.m. ET</figcaption></figure>
According to&nbsp;<a href="http://www.benzinga.com/pro/register/?utm_source=BZprocontent070324&amp;t=be2bearmibe3na1">Benzinga Pro&nbsp;data:</a>
<ul>
<li>The&nbsp;SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>)&nbsp;was 0.3% higher to $550.85.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DIA#NYSE">DIA</a>)&nbsp;was 0.2% lower to $392.45.</li>
<li>The tech-heavy&nbsp;Invesco QQQ Trust&nbsp;(ARCA:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/qqq" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener"></a><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/qqq" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener"></a>QQQ) was 0.8% higher to $490.70.</li>
<li>Sector-wise, the&nbsp;Technology Discretionary&nbsp;Select Sector SPDR Fund&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLK#NYSE">XLK</a>)&nbsp;outperformed, up by 1.3%, while the&nbsp;Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLV#NYSE">XLV</a>) lagged, falling 1%.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Wednesday&#8217;s Stock Movers</h3>
<ul>
<li>Weight-loss giant Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/LLY#NYSE">LLY</a>) and Novo Nordisk A/S (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVO#NYSE">NVO</a>) tumbled 1.9% and 4% respectively, after a study conducted by the Massachusetts Eye and Ear showed that Ozempic and Wegovy are linked to higher risk of blinding eye conditions. Amgen Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMGN#NASDAQ">AMGN</a>) and Viking Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VKTX#NASDAQ">VKTX</a>) also fell 1.9% and 2.2%, respectively.</li>
<li>Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>) shares continued their upward momentum from Tuesday, rallying 5.5% after the electric-vehicle maker&#8217;s quarterly deliveries came in better than expected.</li>
<li>Other EV-related stocks also rallied, with Lucid Group Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/LCID#NASDAQ">LCID</a>) up 8%, Archer Aviation Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ACHR#NYSE">ACHR</a>) up 15%. </li>
<li>Paramount Global (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PARA#NASDAQ">PARA</a>) surged over 7% following rumors from the Wall Street Journal that Skydance is once again interested in the deal to buy Paramount&#8217;s controlling company, National Amusements.</li>
<li>Constellation Brands Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/STZ#NYSE">STZ</a>) fell 4.4%, marking the worst session since October 2023, amid lower-than-expected revenue last quarter. </li>
</ul>
Read Now: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/07/39620397/june-jobs-report-preview-cooling-labor-market-trends-may-further-bolster-rate-cut-h">June Jobs Report Preview: Cooling Labor Market Trends May Further Bolster Rate Cut Hopes</a></li>
</ul>

S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Climb To Record Highs As Data Fosters Rate Cut Optimism Ahead Of Fed Minutes; Gold, Bonds Rally: What's Driving Markets Wednesday?

The U.S. labor market doesn&#8217;t appear as tight and hot as a couple of months ago, with the June&#8217;s Employment Situation report likely to show an overall cooling trend from a very <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/large-cap/24/06/39225961/job-market-booms-in-may-payrolls-surge-more-than-expected-wages-increase">strong performance in May. </a>
Slated for release Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET, the official jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics is expected to reveal a decline in nonfarm payroll growth and a slowdown in earnings momentum.
On Tuesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell suggested the labor market <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/bonds/24/07/39600702/fed-chair-powell-warns-of-unsustainable-us-debt-path-downplays-risks-of-possible-trump-attacks-on-c">is &#8220;cooling off appropriately,&#8221;</a> and the Fed will monitor these developments, ready to act if conditions warrant.
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">June Jobs Report Estimates: What Economists Expect</h1>
<ul>
<li>Economists predict a decline in the pace of monthly new nonfarm payrolls from 272,000 in May to 189,000 in June. Estimates range from 150,000 to 237,000, according to Econoday.</li>
<li>The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4%.</li>
<li>Average hourly earnings are anticipated to rise at a 0.3% month-over-month pace, a deceleration from May&#8217;s 0.4%.</li>
<li>On an annual basis, pay growth is projected to decline from 4.1% to 3.9%.</li>
</ul>
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Conflicting Data Points To Potential Surprises</h1>
Recent economic data have been mixed, suggesting potential surprises in the June jobs report compared to economists&#8217; expectations.
The ADP&#8217;s National Employment Report, which uses payroll data from Automatic Data Processing Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ADP#NYSE">ADP</a>) and focuses on private employment, revealed 150,000 job additions in June, below May&#8217;s 157,000 and the forecasted 160,000. Pay growth slowed, with job stayers reporting a 4.9% year-on-year increase.
Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP, stated that job growth was solid but &#8220;not broad-based,&#8221; noting that June&#8217;s numbers would have been disappointing without a rebound in leisure and hospitality hiring.
Read also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/07/39616016/private-employers-add-150-000-jobs-in-june-less-than-expected-job-growth-solid-but-">Private Employers Add 150,000 Jobs In June, Less Than Expected: Job Growth &#8216;Solid, But Not Broad-Based&#8217;</a>
Bill Adams, chief economist for Comerica Bank, highlighted that private job growth was cool in June according to ADP and the government jobs report is also expected to show the least pay growth since 2021.
Comerica forecasts nonfarm payroll employment to increase by 220,000 in June, with the unemployment rate edging up to 4.1% from 4.0%.
Adams also noted the ADP data don&#8217;t capture the significant rise in self-employment due to gig work and entrepreneurship, which are growing faster than in the pre-pandemic period.
Overall, the ADP and jobless claims reports reinforce the impression that the labor market has cooled and is likely to cool further in the second half of 2024.
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Services Sector Jitters</h1>
The most conflicting indications ahead of Friday&#8217;s jobs report came from services sector surveys by S&amp;P Global and the Institute for Supply Management (ISM).
S&amp;P Global&#8217;s Services Purchasing Managers&#8217; Index (PMI) for June showed the strongest expansion for U.S. services activity since April 2022, extending the growth streak to 17 consecutive months. In contrast, the ISM Services PMI reported the worst contraction in over four years last month.
Employment conditions also sharply differed in the two surveys. S&amp;P Global&#8217;s Services PMI indicated employment returned to growth after two months of contraction, while the ISM reported a faster pace of contraction in the services labor market.
"U.S. service sector companies reported an encouragingly solid end to the second quarter, with output rising at the fastest rate in over two years. Both new order inflows and hiring have accelerated, the latter buoyed by firms taking on more workers in response to rising backlogs of work,&#8221; Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence, said.
Steve Miller, chair of the ISM Services Business Survey Committee, commented, "The decrease in the composite index in June is a result of notably lower business activity, a contraction in new orders for the second time since May 2020, and continued contraction in employment.&#8221;
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Weaker Jobs Data May Fuel Rate Cut Wagers</h1>
On Thursday, market reactions highlighted the significance investors placed on the ISM Services PMI. Treasury yields plummeted by 8 to 9 basis points on the long end as traders increased bets on Fed rate cuts.
The probability of a rate cut in September climbed from 65% to 73% following the release, with 52 basis points of cuts already anticipated by the end of the year.
Bonds rallied, with the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) soaring 1.4%, while the U.S. dollar weakened substantially, down 0.5%. 
Lower yields and the weaker greenback aided gold prices, with the precious metal, as tracked by the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>), up 1.4%, eyeing its best-performing session since mid-May.
Now Read: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/07/39618958/us-services-sector-activity-experiences-largest-contraction-in-over-4-years-gold-ra">US Services Sector Activity Experiences Largest Contraction In Over 4 Years: Gold Rallies, Dollar Tumbles As Traders Raise Rate Cut Bets</a></li>
</ul>
Photo: Shutterstock

Analyst Color

June Jobs Report Preview: Cooling Labor Market Trends May Further Bolster Rate Cut Hopes

Business sentiment in the U.S. services sector plummeted in June, missing economic estimates by a wide margin and indicating that the pace of economic growth slowed down markedly at the <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/ism">end of last quarter. </a>
The Purchasing Managers&#8217; Index for the services sector, as measured by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), marked the worst contraction since May 2020.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">June ISM Services PMI Report: Key Highlights</h3>
<ul>
<li>The ISM Services PMI fell from 53.8% to 48.8% in June, sharply below market expectations of 52.5% as monitored by Econoday.</li>
<li>The subindex for Business Activity fell from 61.2% to 49.6% in June. </li>
<li>The subindex for New Orders entered contraction after 17 straight months of expansion, falling from 54.1% in May to 47.3% in June. The outcome fell short of the 53.6% expected.</li>
<li>The subindex for Prices Paid eased from 58.1% to 56.3%, slightly below the predicted 56.7%, indicating a marginal improvement in price inputs paid by services providers.</li>
<li>The subindex for Employment contracted at a faster pace compared to May, falling from 47.1% to 46.1%, missing the expected 49%. </li>
</ul>
Chart: Services Sector Activity Tumbles The Most Since May 2020
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="500" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/03102122/image-1-1-1024x500.png" alt="" class="wp-image-418726" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/03102122/image-1-1-1024x500.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/03102122/image-1-1-300x147.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/03102122/image-1-1-768x375.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/03102122/image-1-1-1536x750.png 1536w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/03102122/image-1-1.png 1920w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
&#8220;The decrease in the composite index in June is a result of notably lower business activity, a contraction in new orders for the second time since May 2020 and continued contraction in employment.&#8221; Steve Miller, chair of the ISM Services Business Survey Committee, said. 
Miller highlighted that survey respondents report flat or lower business conditions, and while price pressures are fading, &#8220;some commodities have significantly higher costs.&#8221; 
Respondents also indicated that the weaker supplier delivery performance is attribute to transportation challenges, and not to demand gains.
Also read: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/07/39616016/private-employers-add-150-000-jobs-in-june-less-than-expected-job-growth-solid-but-">Private Employers Add 150,000 Jobs In June, Less Than Expected: Job Growth &#8216;Solid, But Not Broad</a><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/07/39616016/private-employers-add-150-000-jobs-in-june-less-than-expected-job-growth-solid-but-">-Based&#8217;</a>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Market Reactions: Stocks Hold Gains, Bond Yields Rise Again</h3>
U.S. stocks inched higher in reaction to the bleak ISM Services PMI report, bond yields fell markedly, and the dollar weakened as traders raised their wagers on upcoming Fed interest rate cuts.
<ul>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 Index, as tracked by the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>), was 0.2% higher at 10:15 a.m. in New York.</li>
<li>The tech-heavy Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>) rose by 0.2%.</li>
<li>The blue-chip SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DIA#NYSE">DIA</a>) was flat. </li>
<li>Long-dated Treasury yields saw sharp declines, with the 30-year yield down by 9 basis points to 4.52%, pushing the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) up by 1.4%.</li>
<li>The U.S. dollar tumbled, with the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>), down 0.5%.</li>
<li>Gold, as tracked by the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>), rallied 1.5%. </li>
</ul>
Read Next: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/07/39605542/goldman-sachs-10-reasons-why-stock-risks-rise-in-the-second-half-of-2024">Goldman Sachs: 10 Reasons Why Stock Risks Rise In The Second Half Of 2024</a></li>
</ul>
Photo: Shutterstock

US Services Sector Activity Experiences Largest Contraction In Over 4 Years: Gold Rallies, Dollar Tumbles As Traders Raise Rate Cut Bets

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<img alt="" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/2024-07-02_08h21_35.png" style="height:389px; width:624px" />
<h3>Trump Immunity</h3>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-market-trump-immunity-tlt-mc-07022024">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/tlt#NASDAQ">TLT</a>).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>The chart shows that bonds fell yesterday.&nbsp;Falling bonds mean rising yields.</li>
<li>The chart shows that the recent breakout above the resistance zone failed.</li>
<li>The chart shows that bonds are now approaching the top band of the mini support zone.</li>
<li>The chart shows that bonds fell on heavy volume, indicating conviction.</li>
<li>RSI on the chart shows that bonds are now oversold.&nbsp;This means a bounce may occur, but investors need to focus on the longer term.</li>
<li>To understand why bonds fell and the impact on your wealth, including stocks such as Apple Inc (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/aapl#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>), Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/tsla#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>), and NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/nvda#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>), you will need to set your politics aside.&nbsp; Successful investors separate their politics from their investing.</li>
<li>As an important reminder, The Arora Report is politically agnostic.&nbsp; The Arora Report strives to be objective and rigorously analytical to help investors.
<ul>
<li>Remember that prior to the 2016 election, when Wall Street had anointed Hillary Clinton as the next president, The Arora Report had correctly called that Trump would win.&nbsp; At that time, The Arora Report was among the very tiny minority with the correct call.</li>
<li>When Trump won in 2016, Wall Street&#39;s wisdom was that the stock market would fall.&nbsp;In contrast, after Trump&#39;s win, The Arora Report call was that the stock market would rise with DJIA reaching 30,000 in Trump&#39;s first term.&nbsp; At that time, no one had a call for DJIA to reach higher than 20,000.&nbsp; History shows that The Arora Report had two perfect calls benefiting Arora Report members</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Yesterday, the data from the ISM Manufacturing Index came at 48.5 vs. 49.1 consensus.&nbsp;Weaker data should have made bonds move up, but bonds went down on the Supreme Court ruling granting Trump broad immunity.</li>
<li>By now, some of you have already connected the dots, while others are asking, &ldquo;What does Trump&rsquo;s immunity have to do with bonds, my wealth, and popular stocks?&rdquo;</li>
<li>The bond market is interpreting the Supreme Court&rsquo;s ruling as follows:
<ul>
<li>Due to the Supreme Court ruling, now there is no way for Trump&rsquo;s trial related to the January 6 charges to occur before the election.&nbsp;This has increased the probability of Trump being the next president.</li>
<li>The bond market is interpreting that due to the Supreme Court ruling,&nbsp;Trump will be the most powerful U.S. president ever if he is elected.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>The bond market is interpreting the foregoing as a new era of tax cuts, borrowing, and higher deficits leading to sticky inflation.</li>
<li>Yesterday, the stock market rally was blunted by the Supreme Court ruling.</li>
<li>Today in the early trade, the stock market is coming under pressure as the word spreads of implications of the Supreme Court ruling.</li>
<li>Smart money is interpreting the Supreme Court&rsquo;s ruling as stagflation is ahead.&nbsp; Many Wall Street strategists are beginning to urge their best clients to start positioning their portfolios for sticky inflation.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>Government policies will have a major impact on your wealth.&nbsp; Bonds will likely stay under pressure.&nbsp;The impact on stocks will be uneven.&nbsp;Let&rsquo;s explore the impact on three popular stocks:
<ul>
<li>Apple (AAPL) may be negatively impacted because of Trump&rsquo;s anti-China policies.</li>
<li>Unlike Biden, Trump favors Musk.&nbsp; This is good for Tesla.&nbsp; However, Trump is anti-EV, and Tesla has significant production in China.</li>
<li>Nvidia (NVDA) may benefit because of lesser regulation of AI.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>In noteworthy news, in the early trade TSLA stock is moving higher on announcement that in Q2 it produced 411K vehicles and delivered 444K vehicles.</li>
<li>Powell is speaking at the European Central Banks Forum on Central Banking.&nbsp;At The Arora Report, we will be carefully analyzing the speech for signs of future changes to interest.</li>
<li>JOLTS job opening data will be reported at 10am ET and may be market moving.</li>
<li>As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the protection band. The protection band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.</li>
</ul>
<h3>Holiday Schedule</h3>
Happy Independence Day.&nbsp;Liquidity is drying up as most senior Wall Street personnel are on vacation and trading desks are being manned by junior personnel.
<h3>Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h3>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/qqq#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>). &nbsp;Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil. The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (ARCA:GLD). The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (ARCA:SLV). &nbsp;The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (ARCA:USO).
<h3>Bitcoin</h3>
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) is range bound.
<h3>Protection Band And What To Do Now</h3>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp;The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp;If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp;A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp;When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks. High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h3>Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h3>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of seven year duration or less.&nbsp;Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.
This article is from an unpaid external contributor. It does not represent Benzinga&#39;s reporting and has not been edited for content or accuracy.

Government

General

AAPL

Investors Pay Attention: Your Wealth, Apple, Tesla, And Nvidia May Be Impacted By Trump Immunity

It&#8217;s a mixed start to the week on Wall Street, with <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/s-p-500">major large-cap indices </a>slightly above the break-even point by midday trading in New York.
All investor eyes are on this week&#8217;s key economic events, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell&#8216;s speech on Tuesday and the labor market data release on Friday.
Large-cap indices are outperforming small caps, which are down 0.8%. The S&amp;P 500 rose 0.2%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 outperformed, up 0.4%. 
Among Monday&#8217;s best-performing sectors is technology, up 0.7%, while materials and real estate are struggling, down 1.7% and 1.2%, respectively.
On the data front, the ISM Manufacturing PMI index fell more than expected in June to 48.5%, marking the third <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/07/39577080/manufacturing-contracts-more-than-expected-in-june-putting-pressure-on-profitabilit">consecutive month of contraction.</a>
Treasury yields rose significantly, with the 30-year yield up 8 basis points to 4.64%, pushing the iShares 20+ Year Treasury ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) down 1.9%, on track for its worst two-day performance since February.
The dollar remained flat overall, despite losing some ground against the euro, following the results of the first round of the presidential election in France. However, the greenback rallied 0.4% against the Japanese yen, extending its losses to 161 and beyond.
Among commodities, gold was flat, while crude prices rallied over 1.7%, with the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) light-crude benchmark soaring above $83 a barrel, eyeing the highest close since late April. 
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) was broadly flat at $63,000. 
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Monday&#8217;s Performance In Major US Indices, ETFs</h2>
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Major Indices</td>
<td>Price</td>
<td>1-day %chg</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nasdaq 100</td>
<td>19,764.68</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>S&amp;P 500</td>
<td>5,470.08</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Dow Jones</td>
<td>39,165.14</td>
<td>0.1 %</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Russell 2000</td>
<td>2,021.15</td>
<td>-0.9%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Updated at 12:52 p.m. ET</figcaption></figure>
According to&nbsp;<a href="http://www.benzinga.com/pro/register/?utm_source=BZprocontent070124&amp;t=be2bearmibe3na1">Benzinga Pro&nbsp;data</a>:
<ul>
<li>The&nbsp;SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>)&nbsp;was 0.2% higher to $545.02.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DIA#NYSE">DIA</a>)&nbsp;was 0.2% higher to $391.70.</li>
<li>The tech-heavy&nbsp;Invesco QQQ Trust&nbsp;(ARCA:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/qqq" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener"></a><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/qqq" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener"></a>QQQ) was 0.4% higher to $481.05.</li>
<li>Sector-wise, the&nbsp;Technology&nbsp;Select Sector SPDR Fund&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLK#NYSE">XLK</a>)&nbsp;outperformed, up by 0.6%, while the&nbsp;Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLRE#NYSE">XLRE</a>) lagged, falling 1.3%.</li>
</ul>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Monday&#8217;s Stock Movers</h2>
<ul>
<li>Tesla notably surged over 6%, on track for its strongest session in over a month, following an improved outlook for EV sales in China.</li>
<li>Chinese EV-maker XPeng Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XPEV#NYSE">XPEV</a>) rallied 6%, and NIO Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NIO#NYSE">NIO</a>) rocketed 7%.</li>
<li>Rivian Automotive Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/RIVN#NASDAQ">RIVN</a>) rose 3.5% after Goldman Sachs raised its price target from $11 to $14.</li>
<li>Cruise-line stocks tumbled, with Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NCLH#NYSE">NCLH</a>) down over 6.5%, and Carnival Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CCL#NYSE">CCL</a>) down 5.8%, likely impacted by higher oil prices. </li>
<li>Victoria&#8217;s Secret &amp; Co. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VSCO#NYSE">VSCO</a>) plummeted over 9%, eyeing its worst day since March.</li>
<li>Snowflake Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SNOW#NYSE">SNOW</a>) rose 5%, marking its fourth straight session of gains.</li>
</ul>
Read Next:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/07/39579731/nvidia-apple-microsoft-race-toward-4t-market-cap-analyst-expects-ai-driven-tech-ral">Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft Race Toward $4T Market Cap: Analyst Expects AI-Driven Tech Rally To Deliver 15% Returns Over Next 6 Months</a></li>
</ul>
Photo: Shutterstock

NCLH

RIVN

SNOW

VSCO

XLRE

XPEV

Stocks Inch Up, Bonds Dip; Tesla And EVs Rally; Oil Tops $83: What's Driving Markets Monday?

Business conditions in the U.S. manufacturing sector deteriorated more than anticipated in June, marking the third consecutive month of contraction, according to the Institute of Supply <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/ism">Management&#8217;s Purchasing Managers&#8217; Index.</a>
The pace of contraction in June was the fastest in four months, with none of the five subindexes that directly contribute to the overall index in expansion territory, down from two in May.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">June ISM Manufacturing PMI Report: Key Highlights</h3>
<ul>
<li>The ISM Manufacturing PMI Index dropped to 48.5% in June, a 0.2 percentage point decline from May&#8217;s 48.7%, falling short of the median consensus of 49.1% as gauged by Econoday.</li>
<li>The New Orders Index rose from 45.4% in May to 49.3% in June, but remained in contraction. </li>
<li>The Production Index fell from 50.2% to 48.5%. </li>
<li>The Employment Index eased from 51.1% to 49.3%. </li>
<li>The Supplier Deliveries slightly increased from 48.9% to 49.8%. </li>
<li>The Prices Index was 52.1%, marking a reduction of 4.9 percentage points from May&#8217;s 57%.</li>
<li>The Backlog of Orders Index extended its contraction from 42.4% to 41.7%. </li>
<li>New Export Orders entered contraction, down from 50.6% to 48.8%. </li>
<li>Imports also flipped into contraction, down from 51.1% to 48.5%.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">The Economist&#8217;s Take</h3>
"U.S. manufacturing activity continued in contraction at the close of the second quarter. Demand was weak again, output declined, and inputs stayed accommodative,&#8221; said Timothy Fiore, chair of the Institute for Supply Management.
U.S. manufacturing companies reported that they reduced production levels month-over-month as headcount reductions continued in June. 
Inputs, which include supplier deliveries, inventories, prices, and imports, remained favorable for future demand growth. 
While the Prices Index decreased, it stayed in expansion territory, albeit at a slower rate for the second consecutive month, indicating some cooling dynamics in price increases. 
Only 20% of companies reported price increases in June, down from 26% in May. 
Fiore cautioned that high interest rates are dampening the investment outlook in the manufacturing sector, and that production declines could negatively impact firms&#8217; cash flows.
"Demand remains subdued, as companies demonstrate an unwillingness to invest in capital and inventory due to current monetary policy and other conditions. Production execution was down compared to the previous month, likely causing revenue declines, putting pressure on profitability,&#8221; he said.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Market Reactions</h3>
U.S. stocks witnessed downward pressure after the release of the ISM&#8217;s June manufacturing PMI report. 
The S&amp;P 500 Index, as tracked by the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) was 0.1% lower at 10:20 a.m. ET. 
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, as tracked by the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DIA#NYSE">DIA</a>) gained 0.1% for the day, but slightly trimmed earlier gains. 
Tech stocks, as broadly monitored through the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>) fell 0.1%. 
Bond yields rose across the board, with the 10-year benchmark yield rallying 6 basis points to 4.56% and the 30-year yield advancing by 7 basis points to 4.63%. 
The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) tumbled 1.7%, after closing 1.9% lower last Friday, eyeing the worst 2-day performance since early February, or the second-worst one year to date. 
Read Next:
<ul>
<li> <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/24/07/39570406/justice-department-moves-to-charge-boeing-over-fatal-crashes-report">Justice Department Moves To Charge Boeing Over Fatal Crashes: Report</a></li>
</ul>
Photo: Shutterstock

Manufacturing Contracts More Than Expected In June, 'Putting Pressure On Profitability': Yields Rise, Stocks Fall

Wall Street experienced a lackluster session during midday trading in New York, with major indices inching slightly lower despite the arrival <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/06/39552592/economists-endorse-september-fed-rate-cut-as-inflation-falls-to-march-2021-level-th">of positive inflation data.</a>
In May 2024, the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index, the Federal Reserve&#8217;s key measure of inflation, fell to its lowest level since March 2021, recording an annual rate of 2.6%, which aligned with economists&#8217; predictions.
This inflation report further indicates that price pressures are moving towards the Fed&#8217;s 2% target, reinforcing market expectations for potential interest rate cuts.
However, there is more caution in the market reactions this time, potentially because investors are evaluating the political and economic implications stemming from the first presidential debate held Thursday night between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, with most political analysts indicating a landmark win for the latter.
Energy stocks were the top performers among S&amp;P 500 sectors on Friday, despite no concurrent gains in oil and gas prices, likely welcoming rising chances of Trump&#8217;s return to the White House.
Treasury yields rose across the curve, with the bond market beginning to price in a new increase in expansionary fiscal policies from the potential next president. The iShares Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) fell by 1.3%.
Semiconductors are set to experience their second consecutive week of losses, while regional banks shine, with the SPDR S&amp;P Regional Banking ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/KRE#NYSE">KRE</a>) potentially marking its best weekly performance since the beginning of the year.
Major commodities are little changed, with gold flat and oil down by 0.5%. Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) remains stuck around the 60,500 mark, down by 1.5%.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Friday&#8217;s Performance In Major US Indices, ETFs</h3>
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Major Indices</td>
<td>Price</td>
<td>1-day %chg</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Russell 2000</td>
<td>2,041.37</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Dow Jones</td>
<td>39,160.78</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>S&amp;P 500</td>
<td>5,479.31</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nasdaq 100</td>
<td>19,754.09</td>
<td>-0.2%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Updated at 12:51 p.m. ET </figcaption></figure>
According to&nbsp;<a href="http://www.benzinga.com/pro/register/?utm_source=BZprocontent062824&amp;t=be2bearmibe3na1">Benzinga Pro&nbsp;data</a>:
<ul>
<li>The&nbsp;SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>)&nbsp;was 0.1% lower to $546.02.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DIA#NYSE">DIA</a>)&nbsp;was flat at $391.69.</li>
<li>The tech-heavy&nbsp;Invesco QQQ Trust&nbsp;(ARCA:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/qqq" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener"></a><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/qqq" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener"></a>QQQ) was 0.1% lower to $481.19.</li>
<li>Sector-wise, the&nbsp;Energy&nbsp;Select Sector SPDR Fund&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLE#NYSE">XLE</a>)&nbsp;outperformed, up by 0.9%, while the&nbsp;Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLU#NYSE">XLU</a>) lagged, falling 1.3%.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Friday&#8217;s Stock Movers</h3>
<ul>
<li>Nike Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NKE#NYSE">NKE</a>) tumbled 20% after missing the Street&#8217;s revenue estimates, eyeing the worst one-day performance ever.</li>
<li>Petco Health &amp; Wellness Company Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/WOOF#NASDAQ">WOOF</a>) rallied over 13% after Keith Gill, known online as Roaring Kitty, shared a dog cartoon image on X.</li>
<li>Baker Hughes Company (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BKR#NYSE">BKR</a>) rose 2.3%, topping the performance among U.S. oil-related stocks tracked by the XLE ETF. </li>
<li>First Solar Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FSLR#NASDAQ">FSLR</a>) fell over 9%, with other clear-energy related stocks as tracked by the Invesco Solar ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TAN#NYSE">TAN</a>) also tumbling heavily in reaction to last night&#8217;s presidential debate. </li>
</ul>
Read Next:
<ul>
<li> <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/24/06/39552551/donald-trumps-election-odds-surge-to-64-following-debate-according-to-crypto-bettors">Donald Trump&#8217;s Election Odds Surge To 64% Following Debate, According To Crypto Bettors</a></li>
</ul>
Photo: Shutterstock

FSLR

WOOF

Wall Street Falters Despite Drops In Fed's Favorite Inflation Rate; Energy Stocks, Yields Rise On Trump's Debate Performance: What's Driving Markets Friday?

The inflation report that&#8217;s closely watched by the Federal Reserve — the Personal Consumption Expenditure price index — was published on May 31 for April data and sparked a fresh market rally in June, pushing major indexes to <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/inflation">their all-time highs</a>.
As traders brace for Friday&#8217;s PCE price index report for May, scheduled for release at 8:30 a.m. ET, many are wondering whether new favorable inflation data could bring the bulls back to Wall Street after some mixed <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/24/06/39532797/stocks-show-modest-gains-ahead-of-feds-inflation-report-chipmakers-struggle-while-gold-and-bitco">performance in recent sessions.</a>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">May&#8217;s PCE Report: What Do Economists Expect?</h3>
The PCE price index is expected to decrease from 2.7% year-on-year in April to 2.6% in May, according to economist consensus data gathered by Econoday. 
On a monthly basis, the index is forecasted to rise at a 0.1% rate, down from the previous 0.3%. 
The core PCE price index is projected to drop from 2.8% to 2.6% year-on-year in May, potentially reaching its lowest level since March 2021. 
Monthly, it is expected to slow from 0.2% to 0.1%.
If PCE inflation falls as expected or even more, it could bolster investor expectations of rate cuts, potentially reigniting hopes for a move as early as September, and would be welcomed by markets.
Traders are assigning a 65% chance on a Fed rate cut in September. Overall, there are 50 basis points — equivalent to two rate cuts — priced into year-end.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Fed&#8217;s Favorite PCE Report Arrives Friday: What Happened Last Time?</h3>
In April, the headline PCE inflation rate remained steady at 2.7% year-on-year. The core PCE price index also matched expectations with a 2.8% year-on-year increase, though it came in slightly lower than monthly estimates (0.2% vs. 0.3%).
Data on personal spending and personal income came in slightly softer than predicted, fueling expectations that the economy was cooling down and that inflation pressures would continue to ease.
This sustained expectations of an increasing likelihood of the Fed delivering two rate cuts by the end of the year.
Stocks reacted positively to April&#8217;s PCE report. The S&amp;P 500, as tracked by the SPDR S&amp;P 500 (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>), rallied 0.9% on that day. 
Notably, the data was a key turning point for a bullish trend reversal in June, as the chart below retrieved from Benzinga Pro shows.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="458" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/27120704/image-61-1024x458.png" alt="" class="wp-image-409213" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/27120704/image-61-1024x458.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/27120704/image-61-300x134.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/27120704/image-61-768x344.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/27120704/image-61-1536x687.png 1536w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/27120704/image-61.png 1920w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Other Key ETFs To Watch Friday</h3>
Other than the broader stock market, traders will also be closely monitoring other key asset classes to gauge the overall market&#8217;s reaction to the PCE inflation report, including:
<ol>
<li>The U.S. Dollar Index: Tracked by the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>). The dollar may weaken if inflation comes in below consensus estimates, and strengthen if it exceeds expectations, in reactions to market interest rate expectations. </li>
<li>Long-dated U.S. Treasury Bonds: Measured by the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>). A lower-than-expected PCE report is likely to push bond yields down, driving up the value of Treasury-related ETFs, and vice versa.</li>
<li>Gold Prices: Monitored through the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>). Gold typically moves inversely to the dollar and yields. A cooler-than-expected PCE report could increase expectations for Fed rate cuts, enhancing gold&#8217;s appeal.</li>
<li>The Russell 2000 Index: Replicated by the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IWM#NYSE">IWM</a>). Small caps, which have significantly underperformed the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 this year, may benefit from lower inflation rates as the pressure from high interest rates, which affect them more than large-cap stocks, would diminish.</li>
</ol>
Read Now: 
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/macro-notification/24/06/39527471/gdp-growth-upwardly-revised-in-q1-but-consumer-spending-weakens-continuing-jobless-cla">GDP Growth Upwardly Revised In Q1 But Consumer Spending Weakens, Continuing Jobless Claims Hit Nearly 3-Year Highs: Thursday&#8217;s Economic Digest</a></li>
</ul>

Last Inflation Report Pushed Markets To Record Highs In June: Could It Happen Again Friday? 5 ETFs To Watch

Wall Street experienced a subdued trading day on Thursday, as traders likely chose to remain on the sidelines in anticipation of Friday&#8217;s release of the Federal <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/24/06/39513292/feds-preferred-inflation-gauge-set-to-drop-to-38-month-low-this-could-provide-the">Reserve&#8217;s preferred inflation gauge.</a>
In regulatory news, U.S. banks successfully passed the Federal Reserve&#8217;s 2024 stress tests. The results demonstrated that all analyzed institutions could maintain minimum capital requirements even in the face of a severe economic shock. Notably, regional banks, as tracked by the SPDR S&amp;P Regional Banking ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/KRE#NYSE">KRE</a>), performed relatively better overall compared to their larger counterparts. 
As of midday trading in New York, major indices showed marginal gains, with small caps outperforming large-cap indices. 
The semiconductor sector continued to face headwinds, with the iShares Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SOXX#NASDAQ">SOXX</a>) down 0.7%, eyeing its fifth negative session in the last six. Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>) declined almost 2%.
Treasury yields moved lower, reflecting increased demand for bonds ahead of the key inflation report. The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond fell by 4 basis points to 4.29%, following an 8 basis-point increase on Wednesday. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) rose 0.5%.
In the commodities market, lower yields and a slightly weaker dollar spurred rebounds. Gold, tracked by the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>), gained 1.2%, erasing Wednesday&#8217;s losses, while crude inched 0.7% higher. 
Cryptocurrencies also saw gains, with Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) up 1.3% and Solana (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/sol/usd">SOL</a>) surging over 8% following VanEck&#8217;s filing for <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/24/06/39528468/vaneck-files-solana-etf-application-sol-rallies-6">a Solana ETF application.</a>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Thursday&#8217;s Performance In Major US Indices, ETFs</h3>
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Major Indices</td>
<td>Price</td>
<td>1-day %chg</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Russell 2000</td>
<td>2,020.84</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nasdaq 100</td>
<td>19,802.54</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Dow Jones</td>
<td>39,220.82</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>S&amp;P 500</td>
<td>5,481.94</td>
<td>0.1 %</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Updated at 12:51 p.m. ET</figcaption></figure>
According to&nbsp;<a href="http://www.benzinga.com/pro/register/?utm_source=BZprocontent062824&amp;t=be2bearmibe3na1">Benzinga Pro&nbsp;data</a>:
<ul>
<li>The&nbsp;SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>)&nbsp;was 0.1% higher to $545.95.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DIA#NYSE">DIA</a>)&nbsp;was 0.2% higher to $391.94.</li>
<li>The tech-heavy&nbsp;Invesco QQQ Trust&nbsp;(ARCA:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/qqq" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener"></a><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/qqq" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener"></a>QQQ) was 0.2% higher to $481.55.</li>
<li>Sector-wise, the&nbsp;Consumer Discretionary&nbsp;Select Sector SPDR Fund&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLY#NYSE">XLY</a>)&nbsp;outperformed, up by 0.5%, while the&nbsp;Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLP#NYSE">XLP</a>) lagged, falling 0.5%.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Thursday&#8217;s Stock Movers</h3>
<ul>
<li>Salesforce Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CRM#NASDAQ">CRM</a>) rallied 6%, marking the best performance within the S&amp;P 500. </li>
<li>Goldman Sachs Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GS#NYSE">GS</a>) fell 2.3%, in reaction to <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/06/39525918/major-banks-fall-short-in-feds-2024-stress-test-results-the-market-will-view-the-re">the Fed&#8217;s stress tests.</a> </li>
<li>Among regional banks First Foundations Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FFWM#NYSE">FFWM</a>) and Dime Community Bancshares Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DCOM#NASDAQ">DCOM</a>) topped gains, up 5.9% and 4%, respectively. </li>
<li>Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>) increased by 2.2% after unveiling a new section on its website focused on budget-friendly fashion and lifestyle products, facilitating direct shipping from Chinese sellers to U.S. consumers. Chinese e-commerce platforms&nbsp;PDD Holdings Inc&nbsp;(NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PDD#NASDAQ">PDD</a>), JD.com (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/JD#NASDAQ">JD</a>) and Alibaba Group Holding (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BABA#NASDAQ">BABA</a>) fell 4%, 3.8% and 1.9%, respectively. </li>
<li>Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/WBA#NASDAQ">WBA</a>) tumbled 25%, in reaction to quarterly earnings. </li>
<li>Other stocks reacting to company earnings were Micron Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MU#NASDAQ">MU</a>), down 6.4%, Jefferies Financial Group Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/JEF#NYSE">JEF</a>), up 6.7%, Levi Strauss &amp; Co. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/LEVI#NYSE">LEVI</a>), down 16.5%, McCormick &amp; Co. Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MKC#NYSE">MKC</a>), up 4.6%, Acuity Brands, Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AYI#NYSE">AYI</a>) up 0.9%, The Simply Good Foods Company (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SMPL#NASDAQ">SMPL</a>), down 1.7%.</li>
</ul>
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Photo: Shutterstock

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Stocks Show Modest Gains Ahead Of Fed's Inflation Report; Chipmakers Struggle, While Gold And Bitcoin Rebound: What's Driving Markets Thursday?

Tech stocks are poised to break a three-day losing streak on Tuesday, driven by a robust rally in chipmakers, with Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>) rising over 4% and reclaiming <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/24/06/39479690/whats-going-on-with-nvidia-stock-on-tuesday">its $3-trillion valuation.</a>
The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SMH#NASDAQ">SMH</a>) rose 1.8% after dropping over 7% in the last three sessions, indicating a resumption in risk sentiment toward artificial intelligence-related stocks.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 advanced nearly 1%, outperforming other major indices. 
Sentiment remains lackluster in non-tech sectors. The S&amp;P 500 edged higher by only 0.1%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Russell 2000 fell 0.9% and 0.6%, respectively.
Treasury yields saw slight increases following hawkish comments <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/24/06/39479480/feds-bowman-shocks-traders-i-remain-willing-to-raise-interest-rates-if-progress-o">from the Fed&#8217;s </a><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/24/06/39479480/feds-bowman-shocks-traders-i-remain-willing-to-raise-interest-rates-if-progress-o">Michelle Bowman</a>, who did not rule out further rate hikes if inflation improvements stall. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) dipped 0.2%, while a trade-weighted measure of the U.S. dollar gained 0.2%.
Commodities mostly declined, with gold and crude oil down 0.5% and 1%, respectively. Copper fell 1%, and silver dropped 2.2%.
Cryptocurrencies were the brightest spot in the market, rebounding after several days of losses. Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) rose 2.3%, aiming for its strongest day in three weeks. The more speculative Dogecoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/doge/usd">DOGE</a>) surged nearly 7%, on track for its best performance in over a month.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Tuesday&#8217;s Performance In Major US Indices, ETFs</h3>
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Major Indices </td>
<td>Price</td>
<td>1-day %chg</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nasdaq 100</td>
<td>19,653.25</td>
<td>0.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>S&amp;P 500</td>
<td>5,457.48</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Russell 2000</td>
<td>199.96</td>
<td>-0.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Dow Jones</td>
<td>39,050.92</td>
<td>-0.9%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Updated at 12:30 p.m. ET</figcaption></figure>
According to&nbsp;<a href="https://pro.benzinga.com/dashboard">Benzinga Pro</a>&nbsp;data:
<ul>
<li>The&nbsp;SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>)&nbsp;was 0.1% higher to $543.11.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DIA#NYSE">DIA</a>)&nbsp;was 1% lower to $390.11.</li>
<li>The tech-heavy&nbsp;Invesco QQQ Trust&nbsp;(ARCA:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/qqq" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener"></a><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/qqq" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener"></a>QQQ) was 0.8% higher to $477.71.</li>
<li>Sector-wise, the&nbsp;Technology&nbsp;Select Sector SPDR Fund&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLK#NYSE">XLK</a>)&nbsp;outperformed, up by 1.4%, while the&nbsp;Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLRE#NYSE">XLRE</a>) lagged, falling 1.7%.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Tuesday&#8217;s Stock Movers</h3>
<ul>
<li>Carnival Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CCL#NYSE">CCL</a>) led gains within the S&amp;P 500, jumping over 8% on better-than-expected earnings and marking its fifth consecutive positive session. This boost lifted peers Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/RCL#NYSE">RCL</a>) and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NCLH#NYSE">NCLH</a>) by 3.6% and 5.8%, respectively.</li>
<li>Online travel agencies also saw gains, with Expedia Group Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EXPE#NASDAQ">EXPE</a>), Airbnb Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ABNB#NASDAQ">ABNB</a>) and Booking Holdings Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BKNG#NYSE">BKNG</a>) rising 1.8%, 1.6% and 0.6%, respectively.</li>
<li>Crypto-linked stocks rallied in reactions to the Bitcoin rebound. Marathon Digital Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MARA#NASDAQ">MARA</a>) and Coinbase Global Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/COIN#NASDAQ">COIN</a>) rose 3.6% and 4.3% respectively. </li>
<li>Arm Holdings plc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ARM#NASDAQ">ARM</a>) soared 5% after Guggenheim raised its price target on the chipmaker from $110 to $169.</li>
<li>TD Synnex Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SNX#NYSE">SNX</a>) tumbled nearly 9% after missing both earnings and revenue estimates last quarter. </li>
<li>SolarEdge Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SEDG#NASDAQ">SEDG</a>) plummeted over 20% after some analysts negatively reacted after&nbsp;the company's announcement of a private offering of <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/06/39485177/solaredge-stock-falls-as-analysts-react-to-300-million-private-offering">$300 million&nbsp;in convertible notes.</a></li>
</ul>
Read now: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/06/39467825/us-election-and-tariff-prospects-set-to-threaten-internationally-exposed-stocks-gol">US Election And Tariff Prospects Set To Threaten Internationally-Exposed Stocks, Goldman Sachs Warns</a>
Photo via Shutterstock.

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Chipmakers, Cruise Lines, Crypto Rally, Nvidia Reclaims $3 Trillion; Blue Chips, Small Caps Dip: What's Driving Markets Tuesday?

Residential house prices continued their upward trend, reaching new all-time highs in April 2024, yet the pace of growth has slowed, potentially suggesting<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/housing-market"> early signs of normalization.</a>
The resilience of house prices was broad-based across the country, with all 20 of the largest U.S. metropolitan areas showing positive monthly increases. San Diego led the annual gains with double-digit growth.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">April&#8217;s House Price Index: Key Highlights</h3>
<ul>
<li>U.S. house prices rose 0.2% month-over-month in April, up from a revised flat reading in March, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) seasonally adjusted monthly House Price Index. This increase fell short of economist expectations of a 0.3% growth, as reported by Econoday.</li>
<li>House prices rose 6.3% from April 2023 to April 2024, slowing from the 6.7% year-over-year growth recorded in March 2024.</li>
<li>For the nine census divisions, seasonally adjusted monthly price changes from March 2024 to April 2024 ranged from -0.2% in the West South Central and Middle Atlantic divisions to +1.4% in the East South Central division. The 12-month changes were all positive, ranging from +3.0% in the West South Central division to +8.5% in the New England and Middle Atlantic divisions.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">April&#8217;s S&amp;P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index: Key Highlights</h3>
<ul>
<li>The 20-city S&amp;P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index reported a 7.2% seasonally unadjusted annual gain for April, down from a 7.4% annual gain in the previous month. This marks the first year-over-year deceleration in U.S. residential real estate prices, though it exceeded forecasts of 7% growth.</li>
<li>On a month-over-month basis, the 20-city index rose by 1.4%, slightly decelerating from March&#8217;s 1.6% increase.</li>
<li>San Diego continued to report the highest annual gain among the 20 cities in April, with a 10.3% increase, followed by New York and Chicago, with increases of 9.4% and 8.7%, respectively. Portland recorded the smallest year-over-year growth, with a 1.7% annual increase in April.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Economist Takes</h3>
"For the second consecutive month, we've seen our National Index jump at least 1% over its previous all-time high," Brian D. Luke, head of commodities, real &amp; digital assets at S&amp;P Dow Jones indices, said. 
Luke stated that 2024 was closely mirroring the strong start observed in the previous year. He mentioned that March and April had posted the largest rise, before a slowdown occurred in the summer and fall.
&#8220;Heading into summer, the market is at an all-time high, once again testing its resilience against the historically more active time of the year,&#8221; he added.
Luke also highlighted that 13 markets were currently at all-time highs, with San Diego leading once again, topping annual returns for the last six months.
A more cautious outlook came from Dr. Anju Vajja, deputy director for FHFA's Division of Research and Statistics, who noted that despite the rise in April, the appreciation rate slowed amid a slight rise in both mortgage rates and housing inventory. 
&#8220;The housing market in general began to show some signs of normalization,&#8221; she added.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Market Reactions</h3>
The housing data released Tuesday failed to trigger a positive reaction on real estate stocks, as hawkish Fed remarks pushed Treasury yields slightly higher. 
The&nbsp;Real Estate&nbsp;Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLRE#NYSE">XLRE</a>) was 0.9% lower at 09:05 a.m. in New York, eyeing its worst session in nearly a month. 
Both the Vanguard Real Estate ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VNQ#NYSE">VNQ</a>) and the iShares Residential and Multisector Real Estate ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/REZ#NYSE">REZ</a>) similarly fell 0.8%. 
The VanEck Mortgage REIT Income ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MORT#NYSE">MORT</a>) showed more contained losses, down 0.3%. 
SBA Communications Corporation (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SBAC#NASDAQ">SBAC</a>) and Weyerhaeuser Company (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/WY#NYSE">WY</a>) were the laggards within the XLRE ETF, both down 1.7%. 
The 30-year Treasury yield, a key benchmark for mortgage rates, rose by 2 basis points to 4.38%, sending the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) down by 0.2%. 
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Image generated using artificial intelligence via Midjourney.

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Home Prices Reach New Record Highs, Yet 'Signs Of Normalization' Emerge

After the Juneteenth holiday break, Wall Street reopened with a cautious tone, as the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices declined after hitting all-time highs around midday trading in New York. This decline was driven by profit-taking in chipmaker stocks and rising Treasury yields, <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets">which dampened risk sentiment.</a>
The iShares Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SOXX#NASDAQ">SOXX</a>) fell by 2.4%, marking its worst session since May 1, after reaching technically &#8220;overbought&#8221; levels earlier in the week.
Oil prices surged above $81 a barrel, aiming for the highest close since late April. This was spurred by larger-than-expected drops in U.S. inventories last week, fueling a rally in oil-related companies.
Small caps also softened, whereas blue chips saw a rebound, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average outperforming other major indices with a 0.4% gain.
Long-dated Treasury yields rose, with the 10-year yield up by 5 basis points to 4.27%, following mixed economic data released earlier in the day. Jobless claims slightly increased more than expected last week, and a manufacturing activity gauge in the Philadelphia region fell short of estimates, reaching its lowest <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/24/06/39411920/jobless-claims-exceed-estimates-philly-fed-index-declines-housing-starts-and-permits-fall-sharpl">level in five months. </a>
Additionally, housing data showed sharp declines in both housing starts and building permits, reigniting concerns about a tight real estate market.
Bonds fell, with the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) down 0.9%. The U.S. dollar index (DXY) rose 0.4%, with the greenback gaining ground against all major currencies.
The Bank of England kept its key policy rate unchanged at 5.25%, as expected, while the Swiss National Bank cut rates by 0.25 <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/top-stories/24/06/39415866/interest-rate-decisions-bank-of-england-holds-firm-swiss-national-bank-reduces-further-will-fed-cut">percentage points to 1.25%</a>. Consequently, the British pound and the Swiss franc fell by 0.5% and 0.8%, respectively, against the dollar.
Gold, tracked by the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>), rose by 1.1%, while Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) remained flat below $65,000.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Monday&#8217;s Performance In Major US Indices, ETFs</h2>
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Major Indices</td>
<td>Price</td>
<td>1-day %chg</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Dow Jones</td>
<td>38,982.71</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>S&amp;P 500</td>
<td>5,477.61</td>
<td>-0.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Russell 2000</td>
<td>2,020.24</td>
<td>-0.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nasdaq 100</td>
<td>19,793.76</td>
<td>-0.6%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Updated at 12:55 pm ET</figcaption></figure>
According to&nbsp;<a href="https://pro.benzinga.com/dashboard">Benzinga Pro</a>&nbsp;data:
<ul>
<li>The&nbsp;SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>)&nbsp;was 0.3% lower to $547.24.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DIA#NYSE">DIA</a>)&nbsp;was 0.4% higher to $390.90.</li>
<li>The tech-heavy&nbsp;Invesco QQQ Trust&nbsp;(ARCA:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/qqq" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener"></a><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/qqq" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener"></a>QQQ) was 0.6% lower to $482.43.</li>
<li>Sector-wise, the&nbsp;Energy&nbsp;Select Sector SPDR Fund&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLE#NYSE">XLE</a>)&nbsp;outperformed, up by 1.8%, while the&nbsp;Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLK#NYSE">XLK</a>) lagged, falling 0.9%.</li>
</ul>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Thursday&#8217;s Stock Movers</h2>
<ul>
<li>The world&#8217;s biggest company Nvidia Corp. witnessed a 2% decline, while Qualcomm Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QCOM#NASDAQ">QCOM</a>), Micron Technology Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MU#NASDAQ">MU</a>) and Wolfspeed Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/WOLF#NASDAQ">WOLF</a>) all tumbled by over 5%.</li>
<li>Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMD#NASDAQ">AMD</a>) surged nearly 4%, outperforming all other chipmakers. This rise followed the announcement that Sun Singapore Systems, the largest parking solutions provider in Singapore, has selected AMD to power its AI-based parking management platform.</li>
<li>Solar-related stocks experienced sharp declines after JPMorgan reduced price targets on Enphase Energy Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ENPH#NASDAQ">ENPH</a>) from $128 to $124 and on SolarEdge Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SEDG#NASDAQ">SEDG</a>) from $73 to $59.</li>
<li>Gilead Sciences Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GILD#NASDAQ">GILD</a>) soared over 8% after the company announced that a twice-yearly antiviral injection had successfully prevented HIV in all test subjects during a trial involving thousands of women and girls in South Africa and Uganda.</li>
<li>Accenture plc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ACN#NYSE">ACN</a>) rose over 6%, despite missing both revenue and earnings estimate last quarter. </li>
<li>Other stocks reacting to company earnings were The Kroger Company (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/KR#NYSE">KR</a>), down 2.8%, Darden Restaurants Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DRI#NYSE">DRI</a>), down 1.5%, Jabil Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/JBL#NYSE">JBL</a>), down 8.7% and Commercial Metals Company (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CMC#NYSE">CMC</a>), up 5%. </li>
</ul>
Read now: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/24/06/39416977/supreme-court-upholds-2017-tax-on-foreign-profits-for-us-businesses">Supreme Court Upholds 2017 Tax On Foreign Profits For US Businesses</a>
Illustration created using artificial intelligence via MidJourney.

ENPH

GILD

QCOM

WOLF

S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Dip From Record Highs As Investors Take Chipmaker Profits; Energy Sector Rebounds, Yields Rise: What's Driving Markets Thursday?

U.S. Treasuries are poised to come in even despite having a very volatile <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/treasuries">first six months of 2024</a>.
A Bloomberg index of returns in this bond market has declined a mere 0.1% for the year. It fell as much as 3.4% in April.
The rebound indicates that investor outlook might be positive in light of falling U.S. prices prompting the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates sooner. 
"We've seen the peak in yields," Stephen Miller, investment strategist at GSFM in Sydney, told <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-19/treasuries-a-whisker-away-from-erasing-2024-losses-on-rates-bets?srnd=homepage-americas&amp;sref=TBDibEcD">Bloomberg</a>. "Bonds are now back as having a deserved place in a multi-asset portfolio."
Treasuries have been sent in opposite directions in 2024 as policy-sensitive two-year yields have soared above 5% in April as fears over higher-for-longer U.S. rates spurred investors to dump bonds.
Also Read: <a href="http://Tokenized US Treasury Notes Market Value Exceeds $1B: Report">Tokenized US Treasury Notes Market Value Exceeds $1B &#8211; Report</a>
They have since returned to around 4.7% as inflation-to-retail-sales data suggested the U.S. economy may finally be cooling enough to justify lower borrowing costs.
Fed Governor Adriana Kugler <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/top-stories/24/06/39391685/fed-members-cool-on-raising-interest-rates-these-conditions-could-take-months-and-more-likely-quarte">said on Tuesday </a>that it will likely be appropriate for the central bank to reduce rates "sometime later this year" if economic conditions unfold as anticipated. 
St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said in his first major policy speech that it could take "quarters" for the data to support a cut.
Volatility in the $27 trillion Treasury market has fallen from recent highs as the views of the Fed and investors over the number of rate cuts expected this year have begun to gel. 
The ICE BofA&nbsp;MOVE&nbsp;Index — a gauge of bond volatility that tracks anticipated swings in US yields based on options — is hovering at about 98, down from an April high of 121, Bloomberg reported.
Price Action: SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BIL#NYSE">BIL</a>) remained flat before Thursday&#8217;s opening bell, while iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IEF#NASDAQ">IEF</a>) declined 0.4%; iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) fell 1% in pre-market trading on Thursday.
Read Now: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/24/02/36948187/janet-yellen-sounds-alarm-on-crypto-risks-in-congressional-testimony-urges-legislative-act">Janet Yellen Sounds Alarm On Crypto Risks In Congressional Testimony, Urges Legislative Action</a>

iShares Trust Barclays 7-10 Year Treasury Bond Fund

US Treasuries Set To Break Even After Rocky First Half Of 2024

News

US 20Y Bonds Draw 4.452% Vs. 4.480% Pre-Sale When-Issued Yield

According to Bank of America&#8216;s monthly global fund manager survey, investors are confident the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates at least twice <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/06/39252500/fed-meeting-preview-economists-predict-steady-rates-in-june-fewer-cuts-ahead">in the next year</a>.
What Happened: Here&#8217;s a breakdown of the findings, per <a href="https://www.barrons.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-061824/card/investors-remain-confident-on-fed-interest-rate-cuts-bofa-survey-says-jNgwx06xpSHCOLpGOWNe">Barron&#8217;s</a>:
<ul>
<li>84% of investors anticipate a rate cut sometime in 2024.</li>
<li>33% of respondents foresee two rate cuts in the coming year.</li>
<li>31% predict three cuts.</li>
<li>14% expect more than three reductions.</li>
<li>8% believe the Fed will maintain current rates throughout the period.</li>
<li>39% of investors predict a rate cut in September.</li>
<li>16% expect a cut in November.</li>
<li>23% foresee a cut in December.</li>
<li>6% believe a rate cut will occur as early as July.</li>
</ul>
See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/econ-s/24/06/39378193/may-retail-sales-fall-short-suggest-weakening-consumer">May Retail Sales Fall Short, Suggest Weakening Consumer</a>
Why It Matters: The Federal Reserve&#8217;s interest rate decisions significantly impact the economy, borrowing costs, interest rates and the stock market. 
The Fed has maintained its benchmark policy rate in the 5.25%-5.5% range since July 2023 to counter inflationary pressures.
Its projections, released <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/06/39349095/minneapolis-fed-president-neel-kashkari-says-reasonable-prediction-that-fed-rate-cut-could-come-at-y">earlier this month</a>, indicate the median forecast of all 19 U.S. central bankers was for a single interest rate cut this year.
When? Neel Kashkari, the President of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve, says &#8220;toward <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/06/39349095/minneapolis-fed-president-neel-kashkari-says-reasonable-prediction-that-fed-rate-cut-could-come-at-y">the end of the year</a>.&#8221;
What&#8217;s Next: The next Federal Open Market Committee <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm">meeting</a> will be held <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/fomc">July 30-31</a>.
At last month&#8217;s FOMC meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell pushed back on fears of rate hikes, deeming them as &#8220;unlikely.&#8221;
Price Action: The SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) was up 0.075% at last check Tuesday, while bonds, as gauged by the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) were 0.52% higher.
Now Read: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/24/06/39375770/wall-street-looks-jaded-after-record-run-as-traders-shift-focus-to-retail-sales-data-fed-speeches-f">Wall Street Looks Jaded After Record Run As Traders Shift Focus To Retail Sales Data, Fed Speeches: &#8216;FOMO Still Rules The Market For AI-Related Stocks,&#8217; Says Analyst</a>

Fed Will Cut Interest Rates — But When? Most Investors Agree It Won't Be July, Bank Of America Says

Wall Street is set for a subdued session on Friday as risk sentiment wanes due to low U.S. consumer confidence and rising <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/large-cap/24/06/39332520/french-stocks-set-for-worst-week-since-russias-war-in-ukraine-yields-versus-bund-hit-12-year-highs">political uncertainties in Europe</a>. 
The University of Michigan reported the lowest U.S. consumer confidence reading since November 2023, <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/24/06/39334146/consumer-sentiment-tumbles-in-june-reaches-7-month-low-high-prices-as-well-as-weakening-incomes-">significantly missing economists&#8217; forecasts</a>.
European assets experienced wild sell-offs, particularly in French equities, as investors worry about potential political and fiscal turmoil with snap elections looming in nearly two weeks.
At midday trading in New York:
<ul>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 dipped 0.2%, pulling back slightly from a record-high close on Thursday.</li>
<li>The Nasdaq 100 edged up 0.1% to over 19,600 points, aiming for its fifth consecutive record close this week.</li>
<li>Both the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are on track for a positive weekly finish.</li>
<li>The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined by 0.2% on Friday and 0.6% for the week.</li>
<li>Small-cap stocks, represented by the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IWM#NYSE">IWM</a>), underperformed large-cap counterparts, dropping 1.7% in their worst session since late April.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bonds</h3>
Bond yields saw their largest weekly drop since late December 2023, with the 10-year benchmark yield falling over 20 basis points this week. This led to a rally in fixed-income assets, with the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) gaining 0.6% on Friday and over 3% for the week. 
The latter could mark the strongest week for long-dated Treasury bonds year to date.
Commodities performed well, with gold and crude oil prices rising by 1.2% and 1.1%, respectively. Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) fell 2.2% for the day and 6% for the week, marking its second consecutive session decline and worst week since August 2023.
Chart of The Week: Bonds Set For Best Week In Six Months
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="500" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/14131515/image-37-1024x500.png" alt="" class="wp-image-389488" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/14131515/image-37-1024x500.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/14131515/image-37-300x147.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/14131515/image-37-768x375.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/14131515/image-37-1536x750.png 1536w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/14131515/image-37.png 1920w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Friday&#8217;s Performance In Major US Indices, ETFs</h3>
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Major Indices</td>
<td>Price</td>
<td>1-day %chg</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nasdaq 100</td>
<td>19,626.32</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>S&amp;P 500</td>
<td>5,424.43</td>
<td>-0.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Dow Jones</td>
<td>38,554.32</td>
<td>-0.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Russell 2000</td>
<td>2,018.50</td>
<td>-1.7%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Updated at 1:00 p.m. ET</figcaption></figure>
According to <a href="https://pro.benzinga.com/dashboard">Benzinga Pro</a> data:
<ul>
<li>The&nbsp;SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>)&nbsp;was 0.1% lower to $541.88.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DIA#NYSE">DIA</a>)&nbsp;was 0.1% lower to $386.39.</li>
<li>The tech-heavy&nbsp;Invesco QQQ Trust&nbsp;(ARCA: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/qqq" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener"></a><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/qqq" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener"></a>QQQ) was 0.3% higher to $477.88.</li>
<li>Sector-wise, the&nbsp;Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLK#NYSE">XLK</a>)&nbsp;outperformed, up by 0.2%, while the&nbsp;Industrials Select Sector SPDR Fund&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLI#NYSE">XLI</a>) lagged, down 1.3%.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Friday&#8217;s Stock Movers</h3>
<ul>
<li>Cruise stocks fell substantially after Bank of America warned about softer pricing heading into the summer. Shares of Royal Caribbean Cruise Ltd. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/RCL#NYSE">RCL</a>), Carnival Cruise Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CCL#NYSE">CCL</a>) and Norwegian Cruise Holdings Ltd. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NCLH#NYSE">NCLH</a>) fell 5.4%, 7.8% and 7.8%, respectively. </li>
<li>Adobe Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ADBE#NASDAQ">ADBE</a>) rose over 14%, amid stronger-than-expected results last quarter, eyeing the strongest session since March 2020. </li>
<li>RH (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/RH#NYSE">RH</a>) fell over 17% following a sharp earnings miss. </li>
<li>Hasbro Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/HAS#NASDAQ">HAS</a>) rose 4.9% after Bank of America upgraded the company to &#8216;Buy&#8217; and raised its price target from $70 to $80. </li>
</ul>
Now Read: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/06/39336082/elon-musks-56b-payday-wins-in-landslide-next-chapter-in-the-tesla-growth-story">Elon Musk&#8217;s $56B Payday Wins In Landslide: &#8216;Next Chapter In The Tesla Growth Story&#8217;</a>
Image: Shutterstock

Eurozone

ADBE

Stocks Ease, Tech Rises, Bonds Eye Strongest Week Of The Year As Consumer Sentiment Sinks In June: What's Driving Markets Friday?

Preliminary estimates from the University of Michigan indicate a sharper-than-expected decline in U.S. consumer confidence in June, reaching its lowest <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/calendars/economic">point in seven months.</a>
The survey also showed that inflation expectations remain largely unchanged, suggesting that the decreased consumer sentiment has not led to a perception of reduced price pressures in the coming years.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Report For June: Key Highlights</h3>
<ul>
<li>The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index fell from 69.1 in May to 65.6, sharply missing Econoday&#8217;s market consensus predictions of 73. It marks the lowest consumer morale since November 2023. </li>
<li>The sub-index for consumer expectations eased from 68.8 to 67.6, below the expected 70.</li>
<li>The sub-index for current conditions tumbled from 69.6 to 62.5, below the predicted 71.</li>
<li>The year-ahead inflation expectations were unchanged at 3.1%. Long-term inflation expectations edged slightly higher from 3% to 3.1%.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Economist Takeaways</h3>
&#8220;Assessments of personal finances dipped, due to modestly rising concerns over high prices as well as weakening incomes. Overall, consumers perceive few changes in the economy from May,&#8221; University of Michigan&#8217;s Surveys of Consumers Director&nbsp;Joanne Hsu, said.
Year-ahead inflation expectations remained steady at 3.3% this month, which is higher than the 2.3-3.0% range observed in the two years preceding the pandemic. 
Long-term inflation expectations slightly increased from 3.0% last month to 3.1% this month. 
Although long-term expectations have been notably stable over the past three years, they &#8220;remain elevated relative to the 2.2-2.6% range seen in the two years pre-pandemic,&#8221; Hsu added.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Market Reactions</h3>
Wall Street hovered in the red Friday, after major indices, such as the S&amp;P 500 and the Nasdaq 100, hit record high closes on Thursday. 
The SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) fell following the report, extending the session decline to 0.4%. Small caps also witnessed a drop, with the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IWM#NYSE">IWM</a>) down 1.7% for the day. 
Investors flocked to safe havens again, with the bond yields down across all maturities. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) rose 0.9%, and by 3.5% for the week, eyeing the strongest weekly performance since December 2023. 
Read now: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/large-cap/24/06/39332520/french-stocks-set-for-worst-week-since-russias-war-in-ukraine-yields-versus-bund-hit-12-year-highs">French Stocks Set For Worst Week Since Russia&#8217;s War In Ukraine, Yields Versus Bund Hit 12-Year Highs On Snap Election Jitters</a>
Photo: Shutterstock

Consumer Sentiment Tumbles In June, Reaches 7-Month Low: 'High Prices As Well As Weakening Incomes' Raise Concerns

Wall Street experienced a rude awakening the day after the Federal Reserve&#8217;s June policy meeting, as investors sold off risky assets and shifted to safer bonds and cash in response to the <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/24/06/39310762/producer-inflation-rise-less-than-expected-jobless-claims-soar-thursdays-economic-digest">latest batch economic data.</a>
Although May&#8217;s producer inflation was lower than expected, reinforcing the disinflation narrative and likely boosting the Fed&#8217;s confidence on the return to the 2% target, an unexpected increase in unemployment claims dampened risk sentiment, as investors fear symptoms of labor market weakness.
The S&amp;P 500 Index was 0.2% lower, potentially snapping a three-day winning streak. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 marginally rose by 0.2%, aided by the positive performance of Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AVGO#NASDAQ">AVGO</a>), Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>) and Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>), as more than 80 tech members within the index traded in the red. 
Blue chips fell 0.8%, while small caps, as tracked by the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IWM#NYSE">IWM</a>), tumbled 1.5% erasing all Wednesday&#8217;s gains. 
Treasury yields continued to fall, with the 10-year yield reaching 4.25%, eyeing the lowest close since late March. 
Long-duration bonds, followed by the popular iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) are up 1.1% for the day, pushing the weekly performance to 2.2%, the highest since late January.
Despite traders increasing their bets on Fed rate cuts, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), tracked by the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>), surprisingly rallied by 0.6%.
Fed futures currently indicate a 70% chance on a September rate cut, with traders eyeing 54 basis points of cumulative cuts by the end of the year.
Gold, impacted by the rising dollar, dropped 1% to $2,300 per ounce, while Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) fell over 2% to $66,500, nearing its lowest close since May 19.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Thursday&#8217;s Performance In Major US Indices, ETFs</h3>
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Major Indices</td>
<td>Price</td>
<td>1-day change (%)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nasdaq 100</td>
<td>19,504.77</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>S&amp;P 500</td>
<td>5,411.85</td>
<td>-0.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Dow Jones</td>
<td>38,455.94</td>
<td>-0.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Russell 2000</td>
<td>2,020.99</td>
<td>-1.3%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Updated at 12:43 p.m. ET</figcaption></figure>
According to <a href="https://pro.benzinga.com/dashboard">Benzinga Pro</a> data:
<ul>
<li>The&nbsp;SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>)&nbsp;was 0.2% lower to $540.60.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DIA#NYSE">DIA</a>)&nbsp;was 0.6% higher to $385.43.</li>
<li>The tech-heavy&nbsp;Invesco QQQ Trust&nbsp;(ARCA: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/qqq" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener"></a><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/qqq" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener"></a>QQQ) was 0.2% higher to $475.49.</li>
<li>Sector-wise, the&nbsp;Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLRE#NYSE">XLRE</a>)&nbsp;outperformed, up by 0.5%, while the&nbsp;Industrials Select Sector SPDR Fund&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLI#NYSE">XLI</a>) lagged, down 1.1%.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Thursday&#8217;s Stock Movers</h3>
<ul>
<li>Broadcom Inc. rallied over 12%, eyeing its best 1-day performance since March 2020 after reporting stronger-than-expected profits and revenue last quarter. </li>
<li>Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>) rose over 3% after shareholders approved proposals regarding Elon Musk&#8216;s $56 billion compensation package and the company&#8217;s <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/legal/24/06/39300679/elon-musk-under-fire-former-spacex-employees-file-sexual-harassment-lawsuit">relocation to Texas</a>.</li>
<li>Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/WBD#NASDAQ">WBD</a>) fell 6%, heading for its lowest close since early 2009, after Liberty Global Ltd. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/LBTY#NASDAQ">LBTY</a>) acquired the majority stake in the Formula E series by purchasing WBD&#8217;s rights.</li>
<li>Meme stocks rose, with GameStop Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GME#NYSE">GME</a>) and AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMC#NYSE">AMC</a>) up 7.7% and 4.3%, respectively. </li>
<li>Companies set to report their quarterly results after the close are Adobe Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ADBE#NASDAQ">ADBE</a>) and RH (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/RH#NYSE">RH</a>)</li>
</ul>
Now Read: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/24/06/39314556/ice-cold-producer-inflation-data-sparks-economist-reactions-more-data-in-the-corr">Ice Cold Producer Inflation Data Sparks Economist Reactions &#8211; &#8216;More Data In The Correct Direction&#8217;</a>
Image: Midjourney

AVGO

LBTY

Stocks Turn To Losses, Bonds Rally On Falling Producer Prices, Rising Jobless Claims: What's Driving Markets Thursday?

Goldman Sachs has reiterated its forecast for two interest rate cuts in 2024, commencing in September, following the Federal Open Market <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/24/06/39298115/fed-holds-rates-steady-projections-show-fewer-rate-cuts-higher-inflation-outlook">Committee&#8217;s (FOMC) June meeting.</a>
Despite the Federal Reserve&#8217;s June dot plot presenting &#8220;a hawkish surprise&#8221; with a median projection of just one cut in 2024, contrary to market expectations of two, Goldman Sachs economist David Mericle believes this does not rule out a September cut.&nbsp;
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Cumulative Progress On Inflation</h3>
Mericle highlighted that Powell noted the cumulative progress on inflation, which has fallen from a peak of 7% to 2.7%. 
The FOMC revised its statement to acknowledge &#8220;modest&#8221; progress toward the 2% target, a shift from the previous language indicating &#8220;a lack of&#8221; progress. Powell&#8217;s remarks reinforced the Fed&#8217;s recognition of ongoing improvements in inflation data.
On Thursday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the lowest monthly inflation rate in eight months for the Producer Price Index, which tumbled 0.2% from April 2024 to May 2024, well below expectations. 
Read also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/24/06/39314556/ice-cold-producer-inflation-data-sparks-economist-reactions-more-data-in-the-corr#google_vignette">Ice Cold Producer Inflation Data Sparks Economist Reactions: &#8216;More Data In The Correct Direction&#8217;</a>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Traders Align With A Two-Cut Scenario</h3>
Following the FOMC meeting, market participants now assign a 64% probability to a rate cut in September and factor in cumulative 52 basis points of cuts by year-end, implying two fully priced rate cuts. 
This increased optimism towards the likelihood for rate cuts pushed bond yields down and major U.S. equity indices to hit record highs on Thursday. 
Long-dated Treasury bonds, as tracked by the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>), are up over 2% for the week, eyeing the strongest performing week since January. 
Mericle stated that if the next three rounds of inflation data align with recent trends, the Fed is likely to proceed with a rate cut.
According to Goldman Sachs, Powell made three significant comments during his press conference:
<ol>
<li>Labor Market Conditions: Powell indicated that labor market data would need to be worse than the FOMC&#8217;s current expectations to strengthen the case for a rate cut. This comes after slight increases in the FOMC&#8217;s unemployment rate projections for 2025 (4.2%) and 2026 (4.1%).</li>
<li>Neutral Rate Estimates: Powell downplayed the relevance of neutral rate estimates for near-term monetary policy decisions. The median longer-run or neutral rate dot increased to 2.75%, with three participants adjusting their estimates higher. However, Powell emphasized that the neutral rate is a &#8220;theoretical&#8221; long-run concept that doesn&#8217;t guide near-term policy decisions.</li>
<li>Framework Review: Powell mentioned that the next framework review would begin later this year, potentially covering the Fed&#8217;s communications strategy and other topics.</li>
</ol>
Read now: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/06/39294739/how-mays-inflation-slowdown-could-influence-feds-next-move-insights-from-6-economis">How May&#8217;s Inflation Slowdown Could Influence Fed&#8217;s Next Move: Insights From 6 Economists</a>
Image generated using artificial intelligence via Midjourney.

Goldman Sachs Reaffirms September Rate Cut Forecast, Downplays Fed's 'Hawkish Surprise'

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Unemployment Is Up, Job Growth Is Slowing, Rate Cuts Incoming

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