A widely watched gauge of bond market volatility has surged to its highest level in over a year as American voters cast their ballots in one of the closest presidential <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/2024-election">races in recent history. </a>



The ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market Option Volatility Estimate Index, or &#8220;MOVE&#8221; index, closed at 136 on Monday, reaching levels last seen in early October 2023. 



This spike in the MOVE index highlights mounting anxiety in the bond market, driven by political uncertainty and fears of inflationary fiscal policies.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">What Is The MOVE Index?</h3>



The MOVE index, often described as the VIX for bonds, measures expected volatility in the Treasury market based on options pricing. 



Like the VIX, which tracks volatility in the equity market, the MOVE index is seen as a &#8220;fear gauge&#8221; for fixed-income investors. 



Higher MOVE readings indicate increased uncertainty about future bond price movements, reflecting traders&#8217; fears around interest rates, inflation, and broader economic conditions.



See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/money/guide-to-volatility-indices-vix">Beginners Guide to VIX or Volatility Indices</a>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Election Jitters Fuel Bond Market Anxiety</h3>



The U.S. presidential election has investors on edge, with polls showing one of the tightest races in modern American history. 



Neither Vice President Kamala Harris nor ex-President Donald Trump held a meaningful lead in critical battleground states ahead of Nov. 5, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/us/elections/polls-president.html">wrote</a> Nate Cohn, chief political analyst at the New York Times. 



&#8220;In the history of modern polling, there's never been a campaign where the final polls showed such a close contest,&#8221; he added.



The possibility of a prolonged, contentious result has amplified concerns in the bond market, where volatility has jumped 51% since late September. 



Fixed-income investors are also weighing the potential fiscal impact of each candidate&#8217;s policies, especially if the winner's administration fuels inflation and adds to the federal debt.



According to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB), Trump's spending plans could increase the national debt by $7.75 trillion over the next decade, driving the debt-to-GDP ratio to 143% by 2035. By contrast, Kamala Harris's proposals would add $3.95 trillion to the debt, resulting in a debt-to-GDP ratio of approximately 134% by the same year.



Chart: Bond Volatility Index Has Risen By Over 50% Since Late-September



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="501" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/05084449/image-31-1024x501.png" alt="" class="wp-image-630321" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/05084449/image-31-1024x501.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/05084449/image-31-300x147.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/05084449/image-31-768x376.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/05084449/image-31-1536x752.png 1536w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/05084449/image-31.png 1920w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Trump's Tariff Plans Stoke Inflation Fears</h3>



Under a Trump administration, inflation could rise if proposed tariffs on Chinese imports and other goods come into effect. 



Trump has floated a 60% tariff on Chinese products and a universal 10% tariff, policies which JPMorgan analysts estimate could drive inflation up by as much as 2.4% in a worst-case scenario. 



&#8220;Tariffs are inflationary,&#8221; IMF deputy managing director Gita Gopinath warned in October.



With inflation a growing concern, Treasury yields have been on an upward trajectory, as investors demand higher returns to offset potential future price increases. 



Yields on the 10-year Treasury bond have risen by 50 basis points last month and hit 4.33% on Tuesday. 



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">&#8216;Bond Vigilantes&#8217; Are Back</h3>



The bond market&#8217;s reaction to these uncertainties has been swift and severe. 



&#8220;Nothing seems to be stopping U.S. Treasury bond yields from rising,&#8221; said veteran Wall Street investor Ed Yardeni. 



&#8220;The Bond&nbsp;Vigilantes&nbsp;have been voting early (and voting often) by selling US Treasury notes and bonds,&#8221; he added. 



The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>), which tracks long-dated Treasuries, fell nearly 6% in October 2024.



With both candidates likely to enact substantial stimulus, Yardeni stated, &#8220;The bond market is tightening the economy itself,&#8221; as investors anticipate inflation and higher interest rates. 



Yardeni indicated this surge in yields could push the 10-year Treasury into the 5% range, a level not seen since before the financial crisis.



Now Read:



<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/24/11/41740288/us-stocks-set-for-cautious-start-as-investors-brace-for-volatility-on-election-day-expert-points-to">US Stocks Set For Cautious Start As Investors Brace For Volatility On Election Day: Expert Points To &#8216;Pretty Well Overall&#8217; Historical Performance</a></li>
</ul>



Image: Shutterstock

Analyst Color

Macro Economic Events

Bonds

Specialty ETFs

Politics

Treasuries

Econ #s

Economics

ETFs

Bond Market Fear Gauge Soars To 1-Year High Ahead Of US Election Results: 'Bond Vigilantes Have Been Voting Early'

<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/2024-election">Election Day has arrived</a>, and we could all probably use a deep breath. Take a moment if you need it.



Now, onto the cannabis front where voters in Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota and Florida <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cannabis/24/10/41387752/winding-road-to-cannabis-legalization-ahead-for-4-states-set-to-vote-in-2024-what-do-the-polls-s">will decide on ballot initiatives</a> to legalize marijuana for recreational or medical use. If approved, these states will join the 38 others that have embraced some form of cannabis legalization and join the rapidly changing landscape of <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/cannabis-reform">marijuana policy</a> in the U.S.



Here's what&#8217;s changed in the landscape…some might even say drastically.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">One Of Our Favorites: Adult Weed Consumption Rises As Teen Use Falls</h3>



Concerns over a spike in youth cannabis consumption following early legalization efforts, beginning with Colorado and Washington in 2012, have proven unfounded. Contrary to fears, marijuana use among teens has declined, or maybe never really took off.



From 2011 to 2021, the <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/cannabis-reform">percentage of adolescents reporting marijuana use</a> dropped from 23% to under 16%.



"The ‘sky's going to fall' scenario was that all of the kids were just going to have access to all of the cannabis and it was going to be a terrible, terrible thing," said Ryan Vandrey, professor of psychiatry and behavioral sciences at Johns Hopkins Medicine who studies cannabis.



"It just goes to show that teenagers will do exactly the opposite of what you think they're going to do at all times," Vandrey <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/04/well/weed-cannabis-america.html">told</a> The New York Times, confirming what every parent who has or is raising a teenager already knows.



Adult cannabis consumption, meanwhile, <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cannabis/24/08/40652731/cannabis-and-hallucinogen-consumption-hit-all-time-highs-in-2023-while-tobacco-and-alcohol-decli">has reached historic highs</a>, with 42% of individuals aged 19-30 and 29% of those aged 35-50 reporting use in the past year.



Read Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cannabis/24/10/41609840/sharp-drop-in-teen-marijuana-use-legalization-and-demographics-examined">Sharp Drop In Teen Marijuana Use: Legalization And Demographics Examined</a>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Cannabis Use Surpasses Alcohol</h3>



Yeah, you read that right. Recent studies have shown that more Americans are now consuming <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cannabis/24/05/38976556/daily-cannabis-consumption-outpaces-daily-alcohol-use-in-the-us-for-the-first-time-new-study-sho">weed daily rather than alcohol</a>. Nearly 18 million people report daily or near-daily marijuana use, outpacing the 15 million who drink with similar frequency.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Seniors Jump On The Weed Wagon Because…Why Not?</h3>



The country&#8217;s 73 million baby boomers are among the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cannabis/23/08/33583433/baby-boomers-turning-to-weed-en-masse-say-it-improves-memory-and-mood-doctors-agree-cnn-series-e" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">fastest-growing demographic</a><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cannabis/24/01/36458087/senior-cannabis-consumers-balancing-act-relief-for-numerous-conditions-comes-with-warnings-but-w" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">&nbsp;</a>of&nbsp;cannabis users in the U.S. and around the world. In the past 8 years, senior cannabis consumption has tripled. Seniors also happen to&nbsp;possess&nbsp;half of the nation's&nbsp;$140 trillion&nbsp;in wealth, so they&#8217;re helping the economy even after they&#8217;ve retired.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Closing That Gender Gap </h3>



Cannabis use has long been more prevalent among men than women, but that disparity is shrinking. In 2023, young women (ages 19-30) <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cannabis/24/08/40652731/cannabis-and-hallucinogen-consumption-hit-all-time-highs-in-2023-while-tobacco-and-alcohol-decli">reported higher rates of cannabis use</a> than their male counterparts. Teenage girls also now report higher marijuana use than boys, marking a shift in gender patterns of cannabis consumption.



Now Read: 



<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cannabis/24/11/41726320/hemp-donations-fuel-desantis-and-florida-gops-charge-against-weed-legalization-new-findings">Hemp Donations Fuel DeSantis And Florida GOP&#8217;s Charge Against Weed Legalization, New Findings</a></li>
</ul>



Photo:&nbsp;Shutterstock

Cannabis

Government

News

Legal

Election Day 2024: Will Florida, Nebraska, North And South Dakota Join The Marijuana Revolution?

Super Micro Computer Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SMCI#NASDAQ">SMCI</a>) is gearing up for its first-quarter earnings report Tuesday after the market close. Expectations are set for 75 cents in earnings per share (EPS) and revenue of $6.45 billion, according to <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/pro/?utm_source=BZprocontent110524&amp;t=be2bearmibe3na1">Benzinga Pro data</a>.



Super Micro's financial credibility, following significant governance issues, concerns investors.



Here's what to watch as the company tries to stabilize in the wake of these challenges.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">SMCI Under Pressure</h2>



SMCI stock has taken a beating over the past year, with shares down 3.05% year-over-year and 8.83% year-to-date. 



The recent departure of Ernst &amp; Young as its auditor over transparency and governance concerns hit shares even harder. While management has set up a special committee to address the issues, SMCI now faces a Nov. 20 deadline to regain Nasdaq compliance or risk delisting. 



Read Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/10/41661361/super-micro-analyst-suspends-rating-over-governance-accounting-issues">Super Micro Analyst Suspends Rating Over Governance, Accounting Issues</a>



The pressure is on for Super Micro to convince investors that it&#8217;s addressing these issues head-on.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">A Bearish Setup Ahead Of Q1 Earnings</h2>



From a technical perspective, SMCI is deep in bear territory. 



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/pro/?utm_source=BZprocontent110524&amp;t=be2bearmibe3na1"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="625" height="454" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/05065237/Screenshot-2024-11-05-at-5.22.23-PM.png" alt="" class="wp-image-630015" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/05065237/Screenshot-2024-11-05-at-5.22.23-PM.png 625w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/05065237/Screenshot-2024-11-05-at-5.22.23-PM-300x218.png 300w" sizes="(max-width: 625px) 100vw, 625px" /></a></figure>



<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/pro/?utm_source=BZprocontent110524&amp;t=be2bearmibe3na1">Chart created using Benzinga Pro</a>



The stock currently trades at $26.34, far below its 200-day simple moving average of $71.97, and shows no signs of recovery. With a relative strength index (RSI) of 23.71, SMCI is in oversold territory, suggesting the stock could fall further unless fundamentals improve. 



Meanwhile, the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) indicator sits at a negative 4.69, reinforcing the negative outlook.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Key Partnership With Nvidia At Risk</h2>



Super Micro's issues extend beyond the stock chart. Nvidia Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>) has <a href="https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20241104PD217/supermicro-nvidia-supply-chain-ai-server-2018.html">reportedly</a> rerouted some orders to Asia-based suppliers Gigabyte and ASRock, signaling that Super Micro Computer's internal issues are affecting business relationships.



As demand for AI infrastructure remains robust, competition is fierce, and SMCI risks missing out on critical revenue streams if it can't maintain partner confidence.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">What's At Stake In This Earnings Call?</h2>



With Super Micro Computer&#8217;s first quarter results around the corner, analysts are wary. Rosenblatt analyst Hans Mosesmann suspended his rating, citing a lack of financial clarity, while Wedbush's Matt Bryson slashed his price target from $62 to $32.



Tuesday's earnings report could determine whether the company can shift sentiment, but unless the company addresses transparency and governance concerns, investors may remain skeptical.



Read Next: 



<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/24/11/41700445/benzinga-bulls-and-bears-tesla-alphabet-trump-media-super-micro-trader-predicts-dogecoin-r">Benzinga Bulls And Bears: Tesla, Alphabet, Trump Media, Super Micro — Trader Predicts Dogecoin Rally Above 20 Cents In November</a></li>
</ul>



Image: Shutterstock

Technicals

Previews

Tech

Trading Ideas

NVDA

SMCI

Super Micro Computer Posts Q1 Earnings: Are Delisting Fears Here To Stay Or Can The Stock Rebound?

Boeing Co.&#8216;s (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BA#NYSE">BA</a>) 33,000 International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers ratified a groundbreaking four-year contract, achieving a 43.65% compounded wage increase and a $12,000 ratification bonus. 



What Happened:&nbsp;This deal, supported by President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris&#8216; administration and facilitated by Acting U.S. Secretary of Labor Julie Su, ends a nearly two-month strike across Washington, Oregon, and California.



The contract introduces key benefits, including a 38% wage increase over four years, enhanced retirement contributions, and improved health benefits. 



IAM leaders Jon Holden and Brandon Bryant praised the agreement, calling it a major victory for the middle class and a new standard for aerospace industry workers.



Price Action: Boeing&#8217;s stock closed at $155.07 on Monday, marking a modest gain of 0.31% during regular trading hours. In after-hours trading, the stock saw an additional rise, climbing 0.63%. Year to date, however, Boeing&#8217;s stock has faced a significant decline, down 38.41%, according to&nbsp;<a href="https://pro.benzinga.com/dashboard" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">data from Benzinga Pro</a>.



Read Next: 



<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/24/11/41734875/palantirs-ai-gamble-pays-off-as-customer-revenue-from-single-customer-jumps-12x-in-under-8-month">Palantir&#8217;s AI Gamble Pays Off As Customer Revenue From Single Customer Jumps 12x In Under 8 Months — Alex Karp Quips: &#8216;We Should Just Go Home&#8217;</a></li>
</ul>



Image via Flickr



This story was generated using <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/author/benzinga-neuro">Benzinga Neuro</a> and edited by <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/Kaustubh-Bagalkote" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Kaustubh Bagalkote</a>

Equities

Management

Markets

Boeing Workers End Seven-Week Strike By Accepting New Contract With Major Pay Increases

Pseudonymous crypto analysts DonAlt and CryptoCred explored Bitcoin's (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) price trends and the impact of <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/11/41733346/obamas-former-campaign-manager-alarmed-by-early-voting-numbers-as-harris-trump-fight-close-battle-re">Tuesday&#8217;s presidential election</a>.



Bitcoin's Expected Trajectory



In the latest &#8216;Technical Roundup&#8217; <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IhonU0vEFQE&amp;pp=ygURdGVjaG5pY2FsIHJvdW5kdXA%3D">episode</a>, DonAlt noted Bitcoin's recent surge to close to its all-time high before retreating below $70,000, calling the monthly close "catastrophic" after a key resistance retest.



He projected $49,000 as the first support level in the short term, with more robust support near $35,000 on a monthly timeframe, and in an extreme scenario, a possible drop to $16,000.



DonAlt attributes recent sluggish crypto market activity to positioning ahead of a potential Trump victory. He <a href="https://x.com/CryptoDonAlt/status/1853452002983813251">cautioned</a> on X that a Trump win might bring only modest short-term upside for Bitcoin, while a loss could trigger a sell-off, with a Harris win potentially causing an even steeper decline. Emphasizing flexibility, DonAlt highlighted the need for strategic preparation as election results unfold.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/events/digital-assets/ "><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="300" height="250" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/29155259/905735A6-57D3-4874-9AA1-75D037842DB3-2.gif" alt="Benzinga Future of Digital Assets conference" class="wp-image-270548"/></a></figure>



Also Read: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/24/11/41720318/bitcoin-on-the-evening-of-the-election-heres-how-it-performed-in-2012-2016-and-2020">Bitcoin On The Evening Of The Election—Here&#8217;s How It Performed In 2012, 2016 And 2020</a>



Ethereum's Play



DonAlt also commented on Ethereum's (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/eth/usd">ETH</a>) underperformance relative to Bitcoin, stressing the dependency of ETH/BTC strength on Bitcoin's movement. He shared his open position in a SOL/BTC trade.



Given the election uncertainty, DonAlt concluded, "I'm not going to trade in the next weeks, maybe months," stressing the importance of caution in the current environment.



What&#8217;s Next: The influence of&nbsp;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/money/is-bitcoin-a-good-investment" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Bitcoin as an institutional asset class</a>&nbsp;is expected to be thoroughly explored at Benzinga&#8217;s upcoming&nbsp;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/events/digital-assets/agenda/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Future of Digital Assets</a>&nbsp;event on Nov. 19.



Read Next:&nbsp;



<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/24/11/41709166/bitcoin-to-hit-100-000-by-january-2025-could-black-hole-effect-push-the-largest-crypto-to-">Bitcoin To Hit $100,000 By January 2025? Could &#8216;Black Hole Effect&#8217; Push The Largest Crypto To Never-Before-Seen Levels</a></li>
</ul>



Image: Shutterstock

Cryptocurrency

$BTC

$ETH

Veteran Traders Share 'Presidential Election Crypto Trading Roadmap,' Predict Heavy Volatility

U.S. stocks could open on a tentative note on Tuesday after the <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/24/11/41696201/market-volatility-soars-ahead-of-elections-tech-earnings-mixed-strikes-and-hurricanes-knock-employm">averages registered a mixed October</a>. Futures of all three major indices were slightly up on Tuesday, pointing to a cautious sentiment on Wall Street.



While the S&amp;P 500 and Dow Jones snapped their six-week winning streak, the Nasdaq Composite chalked its seventh straight week of gains to round off a volatile October.



America goes to polls on Tuesday to elect its 47th president, and data so far suggests that it will be a neck-to-neck race between Democratic candidate&nbsp;Kamala Harris&nbsp;and Republican nominee&nbsp;Donald Trump.



Another factor playing on investors' minds will be the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) rate decision – the prevailing sentiment is that the Fed will deliver a 25-basis point cut.



<figure class="wp-block-table"><table><tbody><tr><td>Futures</td><td>Performance (+/-)</td></tr><tr><td>Nasdaq 100</td><td>0.27%</td></tr><tr><td>S&amp;P 500</td><td>0.16%</td></tr><tr><td>Dow Jones</td><td>0.12%</td></tr><tr><td>R2K</td><td>0.05%</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



In premarket trading on Tuesday,&nbsp;the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) rose 0.16% to $570.71 and the&nbsp;Invesco QQQ ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>) edged up by 0.25% to $487.24, according to&nbsp;<a href="https://benzinga.grsm.io/lxquj26b2sag" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Benzinga Pro data</a>.



Cues From Last Session:



The Dow Jones tumbled over 250 points on Monday, closing the day down by 0.61%. The other two averages also declined amid declining investor sentiment and rising fear in the market.



Oil prices continued to rebound after tanking the week before, amid delays in production output increase by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, or OPEC.



Treasury yields continued to rise, signaling concerns that regardless of who wins the elections, the next administration might struggle with fiscal discipline. This sentiment was further exacerbated by the International Monetary Fund's warnings on the long-term trajectory <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/10/41495286/deficit-strain-in-washington-will-get-worse-imf-warns-national-debt-projections-rev" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">of the U.S. national debt</a>.



On the economic data front, U.S. factory orders declined by 0.5% from the previous month to $584.2 billion in September compared to a revised 0.8% fall in August.



Most sectors on the S&amp;P 500 closed on a negative note, with utilities, communication services, and financials stocks recording the biggest losses on Monday.



However, energy and real estate stocks bucked the overall market trend, closing the session higher.



<figure class="wp-block-table"><table><tbody><tr><td>Index</td><td>Performance (+/-)</td><td>Value</td></tr><tr><td>Nasdaq Composite</td><td>-0.33%</td><td>18,179.98</td></tr><tr><td>S&amp;P 500</td><td>-0.28%</td><td>5,712.62</td></tr><tr><td>Dow Jones</td><td>-0.61%</td><td>41,794.60</td></tr><tr><td>Russell 2000</td><td>0.40%</td><td>2,219.03</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



Insights From Analysts:



Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group, underscored that stocks perform well on election day, which could assuage investor concerns amid rising volatility.



"What really stands out is how well stocks have done after the 10 most recent elections. Higher a year later 9 times and up 15.2% on avg (median of 17.2%)," he said.



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">Here&#39;s how stocks have done after the past 24 elections. What really stands out is how well stocks have done after the 10 most recent elections. Higher a year later 9 times and up 15.2% on avg (median of 17.2%). <a href="https://t.co/ztim9o3RxP">pic.twitter.com/ztim9o3RxP</a>&mdash; Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) <a href="https://twitter.com/RyanDetrick/status/1853476226741989530?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 4, 2024</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



Echoing Detrick's sentiment, WisdomTree and Wharton School economist&nbsp;Jeremy Siegel said the equity bull run could continue.



"In the near term, stock markets seem poised for further gains, bolstered by resilient earnings and steady economic fundamentals, while bond markets will likely grapple with higher yields and volatility ahead," he said.



"The bull market in stocks looks set to continue, while bonds face a rougher road."



See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/money/how-to-trade-futures">How To Trade Futures</a>



Upcoming Economic Data



Tuesday's economic calendar is fairly light.



<ul>
<li>On Tuesday, U.S. trade deficit data will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.</li>



<li>ISM services data will be released at 10 a.m. ET.</li>



<li>API weekly crude oil stock data will be released at 4:30 p.m. ET.</li>
</ul>



Stocks In Focus:



<ul>
<li>Trump Media &amp; Technology Group Corp. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DJT#NASDAQ">DJT</a>) shares soared 5.6% on election eve.</li>



<li>Palantir Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PLTR#NASDAQ">PLTR</a>) shares surged 13% in premarket trading after the company delivered strong performance and raised guidance.</li>



<li>Boeing Co. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BA#NYSE">BA</a>) shares rose nearly 2% after striking machinists ratified a new deal late Monday, ending a seven-week-long strike.</li>



<li>NXP Semiconductors NV (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NXPI#NASDAQ">NXPI</a>) stock fell over 5% after the company's soft guidance, despite beating expectations in the September quarter.</li>



<li>Investors are awaiting earnings results from Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ADM#NYSE">ADM</a>), Yum! Brands, Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/YUM#NYSE">YUM</a>) and Cummins Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CMI#NYSE">CMI</a>) today.</li>
</ul>



Commodities, Bonds And Global Equity Markets:



Crude oil futures surged in the early New York session, rising by 0.4% after OPEC announced a delay in increasing production.



The 10-year Treasury note yield surged to 4.311%.



Major Asian markets ended in the green on Tuesday, and European stocks showed strength as well in early trading.



Read Next:



<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/24/11/41736062/boeing-workers-end-seven-week-strike-by-accepting-new-contract-with-major-pay-increases">Boeing Workers End Seven-Week Strike By Accepting New Contract With Major Pay Increases</a></li>
</ul>



Photo courtesy: Wikimedia

Earnings

Futures

Federal Reserve

Pre-Market Outlook

Movers

NXPI

PLTR

US Stocks Set For Cautious Start As Investors Brace For Volatility On Election Day: Expert Points To 'Pretty Well Overall' Historical Performance

On Monday, November 4th, U.S. markets closed lower after a volatile session as investors braced for a pivotal week with the U.S. presidential election and the Federal Reserve&#8217;s policy announcement. A poll showing Kamala Harris leading in Iowa impacted &#8220;Trump trades,&#8221; adding market uncertainty amid expectations of delayed election results.



Economic data showed that U.S. factory orders dropped by 0.5% in September, reaching $584.2 billion, following a revised 0.8% decrease in August.



Most S&amp;P 500 sectors closed lower, led by losses in utilities, communication services, and financials, while energy and real estate stocks rose.



The Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 0.61% to close at 41,794.60, the S&amp;P 500 fell 0.28% to 5,712.69, and the Nasdaq Composite declined 0.33% to finish at 18,179.98.



Asia Markets Today



<ul>
<li>On Tuesday, Japan&#8217;s Nikkei 225 gained 1.42% and ended the session at 38,595.50, led by gains in the Glass, Transportation Equipment, and Banking sectors.</li>



<li>Australia&#8217;s S&amp;P/ASX 200 declined 0.40% and ended the day at 8,131.80, led by losses in the Gold, Utilities, and Financial sectors.</li>



<li>India&#8217;s Nifty 50 traded higher by 0.85% at 24,199.05, and Nifty 500 was up 0.63% at 22,661.00, led by gains in the Metals, Banking, and Oil &amp; Gas sectors shares.</li>



<li>China&#8217;s Shanghai Composite rose 2.32% to close at 3,386.99, and the Shenzhen CSI 300 gained 2.53%, finishing the day at 4,044.57.</li>



<li>Hong Kong&#8217;s Hang Seng climbed 2.14% and closed the session at 21,006.97.</li>
</ul>



Eurozone at 05.30 AM ET



<ul>
<li>The European STOXX 50 index was up 0.05%.</li>



<li>Germany&#8217;s DAX declined 0.01%.</li>



<li>France&#8217;s CAC rose 0.04%.</li>



<li>U.K.'sU.K.&#8217;s FTSE 100 index traded higher by 0.25%.</li>
</ul>



Commodities at 05.30 AM ET



<ul>
<li>Crude Oil WTI was trading higher by 0.35% at $71.73/bbl, and Brent was up 0.36% at $75.33/bbl.</li>



<li>Oil prices stayed within a narrow range as markets awaited the U.S. presidential election, following a 2% rise after OPEC+ delayed a planned December production increase.</li>



<li>Natural Gas declined 0.36% to $2.771.</li>



<li>Gold was trading higher by 0.10% at $2,748.80, Silver gained 0.48% to $32.767, and Copper rose 0.85% to $4.4688.</li>
</ul>



U.S. Futures at 05.30 AM ET



Dow futures were up 0.13%, S&amp;P 500 futures gained 0.17%, and Nasdaq 100 Futures rose 0.27%.



Forex at 05.30 AM ET



<ul>
<li>The U.S. dollar index fell 0.12% to 103.77, the USD/JPY was up 0.05% to 152.20, and the USD/AUD declined 0.49% to 1.5110.</li>



<li>The dollar softened as election volatility spiked while traders awaited the Fed&#8217;s rate decision.</li>
</ul>



Photo by Pavel Bobrovskiy via Shutterstock

Asia

Emerging Markets

Eurozone

Commodities

Forex

ADIV

AGOV

ASHR

BBEU

BOIL

CQQQ

EEMA

FLAX

IEMG

IEUR

KDIV

SPEM

USDU

On US Election Day, Asia Mostly In Green, Europe Mixed, Dollar Softens - Global Markets Today While US Slept

Bitcoin plummeted further, but Dogecoin rose as cryptocurrency investors braced for the high-stakes presidential election.



<figure class="wp-block-table"><table><tbody><tr><td>Cryptocurrency</td><td>Gains +/-</td><td>Price (Recorded at 8:30 p.m. EDT)</td></tr><tr><td>Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>)</td><td>-0.55%</td><td>$67,984.27</td></tr><tr><td>Ethereum (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/eth/usd">ETH</a>) &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</td><td>-1.55%</td><td>$2,404.36</td></tr><tr><td>Dogecoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/doge/usd">DOGE</a>)&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</td><td>+9.07%</td><td>$0.1625</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



What Happened: The world&#8217;s largest cryptocurrency fell to $66,800 in the early evening before recovering above $68,000 overnight.



Donald Trump&#8217;s increasing odds on Polymarket failed to boost the leading coin, which has now erased all of its gains since the climb to near-new highs last week.



Ethereum also encountered heavy sell-offs, while Dogecoin outperformed the market with over 8% gains in the last 24 hours.



Cryptocurrency liquidations breached $200 million in the last 24 hours, with bullish leveraged positions accounting for over 75% of the total.



Bitcoin's Open Interest dropped 0.87% in the last 24 hours. Interestingly, 60% of the top traders on the cryptocurrency exchange Binance were leveraged long on Bitcoin as of this writing.



The market sentiment remained in the "Greed" zone, as per the Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index, indicating the potential for higher buying pressure in the days to come.



Top Gainers (24-Hours)



<figure class="wp-block-table"><table><tbody><tr><td>Cryptocurrency</td><td>Gains +/-</td><td>Price (Recorded at 8:45 p.m. EDT)</td></tr><tr><td>Dogecoin (DOGE)</td><td>+8.62%</td><td>$0.1633</td></tr><tr><td>Mog Coin (MOG)</td><td>+3.44%</td><td>$0.000001779</td></tr><tr><td>Monero (XMR)</td><td>+1.90%</td><td>$159.68</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



The global cryptocurrency stood at $2.22 trillion, following a decline of 2.92% in the last 24 hours.



Stock cracked ahead of the all-important election. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 257.59 points, or 0.61%, to close at 41,794.60. The S&amp;P 500 lost 0.28% to end at 5,712.69, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite dipped 0.33%, closing at 18,179.98.



Additionally, prices of U.S. Treasurys rose, with the yield for the 10-Year Treasury falling to 0.3% on Monday. This suggested that investors sought refuge in risk-free investments ahead of elections.



See More: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/money/best-crypto-scanners">Best Cryptocurrency Scanners</a>



Analyst Notes: Widely followed cryptocurrency analyst Miles Deutscher highlighted the two possible trajectories Bitcoin could follow after the election outcome.



In the event of a Trump victory, he predicted an immediate rally and a new all-time high this year. On the other hand, a Kamala Harris victory would cause a sell-off and push the highs back to the first quarter of 2025.



"Either way BTC goes to $100,000+, it&#8217;s just the path that changes," Deutscher added.



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">In my opinion: Trump win = Instant pump, new ATH this year Kamala win = Instant dump, new ATH Q1 2025 Either way <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%24BTC&amp;src=ctag&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">$BTC</a> goes to $100k+, it&#39;s just the path that changes. (I do, however, think the ceiling is higher for both <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Bitcoin?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Bitcoin</a> and alts if Trump wins)&mdash; Miles Deutscher (@milesdeutscher) <a href="https://twitter.com/milesdeutscher/status/1853453218086613140?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 4, 2024</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



Influential cryptocurrency analyst and trader Ali Martinez likened Ethereum's trajectory to the S&amp;P 500, noting that this could be the last dip for the second-largest cryptocurrency before it sails to $10,000.



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true"><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Ethereum?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Ethereum</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%24ETH&amp;src=ctag&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">$ETH</a> has been mimicking the S&amp;P500, and this could be the last dip before it triples and hits $10,000! <a href="https://t.co/BgpbZQXM6I">pic.twitter.com/BgpbZQXM6I</a>&mdash; Ali (@ali_charts) <a href="https://twitter.com/ali_charts/status/1853572432646299649?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 4, 2024</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



Additionally, Martinez observed a buy signal for Bitcoin on the 12-hour chart using the TD Sequential indicator.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">The TD Sequential has been spot-on with <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Bitcoin?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Bitcoin</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%24BTC&amp;src=ctag&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">$BTC</a> trends on the 12-hour chart, and it's now showing a buy signal! <a href="https://t.co/lGL3U0rUSd">pic.twitter.com/lGL3U0rUSd</a>&mdash; Ali (@ali_charts) <a href="https://twitter.com/ali_charts/status/1853502915417424043?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 4, 2024</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



Read Next:&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;



<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/24/11/41723555/michigan-pension-fund-invests-10m-in-ethereum-etfs-exceeds-bitcoin-holdings">Michigan Pension Fund Invests $10M In Ethereum ETFs, Exceeds Bitcoin Holdings</a></li>
</ul>

$DOGE

Bitcoin, Ethereum Slip While Dogecoin Surges Ahead Of Presidential Election; Analyst Predicts BTC Will Hit $100K+ Regardless Of Trump Or Harris Win

Palantir Technologies Inc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PLTR#NYSE">PLTR</a>) reported a dramatic expansion in customer spending, with one equipment rental company increasing its annual recurring revenue twelvefold in less than eight months after implementing the company&#8217;s artificial intelligence platform, highlighting the rapid <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/11/41732827/messi-of-ai-wall-street-analyst-gushes-over-robust-earnings-from-palantir">adoption of AI in enterprise operations</a>.



What Happened: The data analytics company, which joined the S&amp;P 500 index in September, announced Monday that its third-quarter revenue surged 30% to $725.52 million, exceeding analyst expectations of $701.13 million.



&#8220;Given how strong our results are, I almost feel like we should just go home,&#8221; CEO Alex Karp told investors during the earnings call, reflecting on the company&#8217;s robust performance.



The company&#8217;s U.S. operations showed particular strength, with revenue growing 44% year-over-year to $499 million. However, international operations faced headwinds, particularly in Europe, and saw a decline in revenue from a government-sponsored enterprise in the Middle East.



Despite these challenges, Palantir continues to build international partnerships. &#8220;We continue to capitalize on targeted growth opportunities in Asia, the Middle East and beyond,&#8221; said Chief Financial Officer David Glazer, noting a multi-year renewal with BP as evidence of ongoing international expansion.



See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/24/11/41734231/jim-cramer-keeps-recommending-tesla-because-he-loves-space-stuff-but-hes-not-keen-on-ford-i-cant">Jim Cramer Keeps Recommending Tesla Because He Loves &#8216;Space Stuff,&#8217; But He&#8217;s Not Keen On Ford: &#8216;I Can&#8217;t Recommend The Stock&#8217;</a>



Why It Matters: Palantir raised its full-year revenue guidance to between $2.805 billion and $2.809 billion. The company expects fourth-quarter revenue between $767 million and $771 million, with adjusted income from operations projected at $298 million to $302 million.



Palantir&#8217;s U.S. commercial revenue growth is expected to exceed 50% for the full year, reaching at least $687 million, according to Glazer.



The company r<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/24/11/41730179/palantir-q3-earnings-revenue-beat-eps-beat-customers-up-39-raises-guidance-results-driven-by-unrele">eported earnings of six cents per share</a>, double the figure from the same period last year and above analyst estimates of four cents per share. This marks the fifth consecutive quarter Palantir has met or exceeded analyst expectations for both revenue and earnings.



Price Action: In after-hours trading, Palantir stock surged to $47.08, reflecting an increase of 13.69%. The stock closed at $41.41 on Monday, down 1.22% for the day. Year to date, Palantir&#8217;s stock has shown growth, rising to 149.76%, according to <a href="https://pro.benzinga.com/dashboard">data from Benzinga Pro</a>.



Read Next: 



<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/24/11/41734592/palantir-trump-media-hims-hers-health-nxp-semiconductors-and-tesla-why-these-5-stocks-are-on-inv">Palantir, Trump Media, Hims &amp; Hers Health, NXP Semiconductors, And Tesla: Why These 5 Stocks Are On Investors&#8217; Radars Today</a></li>
</ul>



Image Via Shutterstock 



Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.

Palantir's AI Gamble Pays Off As Customer Revenue From Single Customer Jumps 12x In Under 8 Months — Alex Karp Quips: 'We Should Just Go Home'

Meta Platforms, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>) has reportedly hit a roadblock in its plans to construct a nuclear-powered AI data center in the U.S. The discovery of a rare bee species on the proposed site has disrupted the project.



What Happened: Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg had planned to collaborate with an existing nuclear power plant operator to provide emissions-free electricity for the new data center.



However, the project encountered several hurdles, including environmental and regulatory issues, <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/ed602e09-6c40-4979-aff9-7453ee28406a">reported</a> Financial Times, citing people familiar with the matter.



See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/11/41705075/jeff-bezos-backed-perplexitys-new-ai-election-hub-promises-real-time-vote-counts-and-candidate-summa?itm_source=parsely-api" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Jeff Bezos-Backed Perplexity&#8217;s New AI Election Hub Promises Real-Time Vote Counts And Candidate Summaries — But What About Its Accuracy?</a>



The rare bee species found on the land adjacent to the plant, where the data center was to be built, added to the project&#8217;s challenges. Zuckerberg shared this information during a company-wide meeting last week.



Despite the setback, Meta is still investigating various carbon-free energy alternatives, including nuclear.



Meta did not immediately respond to <a href="https://pro.benzinga.com/dashboard">Benzinga&#8217;s</a> request for comments.



Why It Matters: The tech industry&#8217;s increasing demand for <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/24/07/39568237/tech-giants-eye-nuclear-power-to-fuel-ai-boom-raising-concerns-over-stability-and-environmental-">electricity to fuel the AI boom</a> has led to a significant shift towards nuclear power.



Meta&#8217;s rivals, Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>), Alphabet Inc.&#8217;s (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>) (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOGL#NASDAQ">GOOGL</a>) Google, and Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>) have inked deals with <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/10/41358363/nuclear-stocks-soar-as-amazon-becomes-latest-tech-giant-to-invest-in-nuclear-power">nuclear power plant operators</a> to cater to their data centers&#8217; growing energy needs.



In September, Microsoft revealed plans to <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/09/40994664/pennsylvania-governor-josh-shapiro-urges-quick-connect-for-microsofts-nuclear-power-plan-involving-t">reactivate the dormant nuclear facility</a> at Three Mile Island in Pennsylvania.



In March, Amazon invested $650 million to establish a data center adjacent to the Susquehanna Steam Electric nuclear plant, also located in Pennsylvania.



Last month, Google announced its <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/10/41321236/sam-altmans-oklo-jumps-on-google-nuclear-deal-whats-going-on">intention to purchase power from</a> small modular reactor (SMR) developer Kairos Power.



Read Next:



<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/large-cap/24/11/41703422/google-delivers-new-ai-features-to-maps-google-earth-waze-apps?itm_source=parsely-api" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Google Delivers New AI Features To Maps, Google Earth, Waze Apps</a></li>
</ul>



Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/author/benzinga-neuro" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Benzinga Neuro</a> and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.

Media

AMZN

GOOG

GOOGL

MSFT

Mark Zuckerberg's Nuclear-Powered AI Ambitions At Meta Stung By Rare Bees

Palantir Technologies Inc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PLTR#NYSE">PLTR</a>) reported third-quarter financial results after the market close on Monday. Here&#8217;s a look at the <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/pressreleases/24/11/b41727142/palantir-reports-revenue-growth-of-30-yy-u-s-revenue-growth-of-44-yy-gaap-eps-of-0-06-raises-full-">key metrics from the quarter</a>.



Q3 Earnings: Palantir reported third-quarter revenue of $725.52 million, beating the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/calendars/earnings" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">consensus estimate</a>&nbsp;of $701.13 million, according to&nbsp;<a href="https://benzinga.grsm.io/gxjhpowx7zks" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Benzinga Pro</a>.



Total revenue was up 30% year-over-year. U.S. revenue grew 44% year-over-year to $499 million. U.S. Commercial revenue grew 54% year-over-year and U.S. Government revenue climbed 40% year-over-year.



Palantir reported third-quarter earnings of six cents per share, beating analyst estimates of four cents per share. Palantir&#8217;s GAAP earnings results were up 100% year-over-year. The company has now met or exceeded analyst estimates on the top and bottom lines in five consecutive quarters, per <a href="http://pro.benzinga.com">Benzinga Pro</a>.



Palantir's customer count grew 39% year-over-year and 6% on a quarter-over-quarter basis. The company said it closed 104 deals worth over $1 million during the quarter. Palantir generated $420 million in cash from operations and $435 million in adjusted free cash flow in the quarter.



Palantir ended the quarter with cash, equivalents and short-term U.S. treasury securities of $4.6 billion.



&#8220;We absolutely eviscerated this quarter, driven by unrelenting AI demand that won&#8217;t slow down. This is a U.S.-driven AI revolution that has taken full hold. The world will be divided between AI haves and have-nots. At Palantir, we plan to power the winners,&#8221;&nbsp;said&nbsp;Alex Karp, co-founder and CEO of Palantir.



Check This Out: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/top-stories/24/11/41718416/exclusive-top-20-most-searched-tickers-on-benzinga-pro-in-october-2024-where-do-tesla-nvidia-apple-d">EXCLUSIVE: Top 20 Most-Searched Tickers On Benzinga Pro In October 2024 — Where Do Tesla, Nvidia, Apple, DJT Stock Rank?</a>



Outlook:&nbsp;Palantir expects fourth-quarter revenue to be in the range of $767 million to $771 million, versus estimates of $741.439 million. 



The company also raised its full-year outlook across the board. Palantir now expects full-year revenue in the range of $2.805 billion to $2.809 billion versus estimates of $2.759 billion. The company now sees full-year U.S. commercial revenue in excess of $687 million, representing growth of at least 50%. Palantir now expects adjusted free cash flow to be in excess of $1 billion for the year. 



Palantir executives will hold a conference call with analysts and investors to further discuss the company&#8217;s quarterly results at 5 p.m. ET. 



PLTR Price Action: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/PLTR" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Palantir shares </a>were up approximately 140% year-to-date heading into the report. The stock was up 12.73% in after hours, trading at $46.68 at the time of publication Monday, according to <a href="http://pro.benzinga.com/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Benzinga Pro</a>.



Read Next:



<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/24/11/41724383/wall-street-struggles-ahead-of-election-day-energy-sector-outperforms-solar-stocks-rise-whats-dr">Wall Street Struggles Ahead Of Election Day, Energy Sector Outperforms, Solar Stocks Rise: What&#8217;s Driving Markets Monday?</a></li>
</ul>



Photo: Shutterstock.



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<iframe loading="lazy" title="&#x1f534;WATCH LIVE: Palantir Technologies Q3 2024 Earnings Call &#x7C; $PLTR" width="500" height="281" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/1D_fxPC6H4I?feature=oembed" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" allowfullscreen></iframe>
</div></figure>

After-Hours Center

Palantir Q3 Earnings: Revenue Beat, EPS Beat, Customers Up 39%, Guidance Raise — Results Driven By 'Unrelenting AI Demand That Won't Slow Down'

Donald Trump has regained his advantage over Kamala Harris <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/politics/24/11/41702729/harris-surges-in-prediction-markets-nabs-kalshi-lead-with-just-three-days-to-go">in online prediction markets</a> on the final day before the election, but FiveThirtyEight and Nate Silver aren&#8217;t so sure.



What Happened: Harris moved ahead of Trump on the Kalshi betting market over the weekend, but as of Monday afternoon, Kalshi wagerers are giving Trump a 54% chance of victory, expecting Trump to win in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania, with Harris carrying Michigan and Wisconsin. But Kalshi betters also say there is a 75% chance that Harris will win the national popular vote.



On Polymarket, Trump is seen with a 58% chance of victory. Only PredictIt is anticipating a Harris victory, with her 54% chance among its users unchanged since Sunday. Across the prediction sites, Nevada and Pennsylvania are expected to be the closest states, with Trump expected to carry Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina, and Harris expected to win in Michigan and Wisconsin.



The Election Betting Odds website, an aggregator of betting markets, shows Trump with a 54.8% chance of victory, up from 51.6% on Sunday.



Also Read: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/politics/24/11/41725742/2024-election-stakes-potential-sweeps-split-outcomes-in-congressional-presidential-races">2024 Election Stakes: Potential Sweeps, Split Outcomes In Congressional, Presidential Races</a>



The somewhat comfortable odds for Trump on Kalshi and Polymarket, and for Harris on PredictIt, are not reflected in the latest data projections. FiveThirtyEight&#8216;s latest data-driven simulations show Trump winning 51.8% of the tests, to 48.0% for Harris. Silver, in his Silver Bullet newsletter, is even less certain, giving Trump a 50.2% chance of victory to Harris&#8217; 49.2%.



Why It Matters: Prediction markets that have generally favored Donald Trump moved away from him over the weekend, but now are shifting back, though not as strongly. This indicates late shifts in momentum in an election that is expected to be decided by the narrowest of margins.



FiveThirtyEight and Nate Silver, relying on polling numbers and other data gleaned from trends and past campaigns, are essentially calling the race a toss-up.



The presidential race remains too close to call, and may continue to be so long into Election Night.



Read Next



<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/politics/24/11/41728436/trump-vs-harris-2024-election-deadlocked-final-emerson-poll-shows-one-candidate-with-small-edge-">Trump Vs. Harris: 2024 Election Deadlocked, Final Emerson Poll Shows One Candidate With Small Edge Among Independents</a></li>
</ul>



Image: Shutterstock

Prediction Markets Swing Back To Trump, But Data Analysts Say It's Too Close To Call

Cryptocurrency markets are trading lower on the day before the presidential election.



<figure class="wp-block-table"><table><tbody><tr><td>Cryptocurrency</td><td>Price&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</td><td>Gains +/-</td></tr><tr><td>Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>)</td><td>&nbsp;$67,873.44</td><td>-1.1%</td></tr><tr><td>Ethereum (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/eth/usd">ETH</a>)</td><td>&nbsp;$2,429.33</td><td>-0.8%</td></tr><tr><td>Solana (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/sol/usd">SOL</a>)</td><td>&nbsp;$159.90</td><td>-0.6%</td></tr><tr><td>Dogecoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/doge/usd">DOGE</a>)</td><td>&nbsp;$0.1596</td><td>+7.5%</td></tr><tr><td>Shiba Inu (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/shib/usd">SHIB</a>)</td><td>&nbsp;$0.00001691</td><td>-1.5%</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



Notable Statistics:



<ul>
<li>IntoTheBlock data shows large transaction volume increasing by 7.7% and daily active addresses falling by 8.4%. Transactions greater than $100,000 are down from 6,498 to 5,942 in a single day. Exchanges netflows are down by 457.7%.</li>



<li>Coinglass data reports 59,506 traders were liquidated in the past 24 hours for $159.29 million.</li>
</ul>



Notable Developments:



<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/24/11/41723555/michigan-pension-fund-invests-10m-in-ethereum-etfs-exceeds-bitcoin-holdings">Michigan Pension Fund Invests $10M In Ethereum ETFs, Exceeds Bitcoin Holdings</a></li>



<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/24/11/41711028/why-do-crypto-projects-fail-naval-ravikant-reveals-surprising-reason-behind-this-phenomeno">Why Do Crypto Projects Fail? Naval Ravikant Reveals Surprising Reason Behind This Phenomenon</a></li>



<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/24/11/41715056/61-000-is-bitcoin-line-in-the-sand-for-etf-demand-to-remain-steady-says-analyst">$61,000 Is Bitcoin&#8217; Line In The Sand For ETF Demand To Remain Steady, Says Analyst</a></li>



<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/24/11/41710293/bitcoin-could-hit-90-000-if-trump-wins-hold-50-000-floor-under-harris-bernstein">Bitcoin Could Hit $90,000 If Trump Wins, Hold $50,000 Floor Under Harris: Bernstein</a></li>
</ul>



Top Losers:



<figure class="wp-block-table"><table><tbody><tr><td>Cryptocurrency</td><td>Price&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</td><td>Gains +/-</td></tr><tr><td>THORChain (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/rune/usd">RUNE</a>)</td><td>&nbsp;$4.58</td><td>-8.9%</td></tr><tr><td>Popcat (SOL) (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/">POPCAT</a>)</td><td>&nbsp;$1.24</td><td>-6.6%</td></tr><tr><td>Optimism (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/">OP</a>)</td><td>&nbsp;$1.33</td><td>-6.4%</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



Trader Notes: With Bitcoin prices trading relatively flat, crypto chart analyst Ali Martinez flags a buy signal on Bitcoin&#8217;s 12-hour chart.



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">The TD Sequential has been spot-on with <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Bitcoin?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Bitcoin</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%24BTC&amp;src=ctag&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">$BTC</a> trends on the 12-hour chart, and it's now showing a buy signal! <a href="https://t.co/lGL3U0rUSd">pic.twitter.com/lGL3U0rUSd</a>&mdash; Ali (@ali_charts) <a href="https://twitter.com/ali_charts/status/1853502915417424043?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 4, 2024</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



Crypto trader MaxBecauseBTC talks about the significance of the election, noting that based on historical trends, Bitcoin tends to perform well in the year following a U.S. presidential election, regardless of which party wins. However, the outcome could impact altcoins differently.



The analyst is heavily <a href="https://x.com/MaxBecauseBTC/status/1853503605111652566">invested</a> in Bitcoin and cautions others to brace for intense price swings over the next 48 hours, suggesting it may be less stressful to step away from monitoring charts during this period.



IntoTheBlock data shows that long-term holders are selling but in a less aggressive manner than in previous weeks. The tweet added that this moderate sell-off suggests a shift, with investors showing caution about Bitcoin's current market stage. 



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">This chart shows long-term Bitcoin holders&#39; balances. This cycle marks some clear differences from previous ones. While long-term holders are selling, it&#39;s less aggressive than in past bull peaks. This moderate sell-off suggests a shift, with investors showing caution about… <a href="https://t.co/Qi0MzNC8pJ">pic.twitter.com/Qi0MzNC8pJ</a>&mdash; IntoTheBlock (@intotheblock) <a href="https://twitter.com/intotheblock/status/1853491255365222589?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 4, 2024</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



What&#8217;s Next: The influence of&nbsp;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/money/is-bitcoin-a-good-investment" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Bitcoin as an institutional asset class</a>&nbsp;is expected to be thoroughly explored at Benzinga&#8217;s upcoming&nbsp;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/events/digital-assets/agenda/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Future of Digital Assets</a>&nbsp;event on Nov. 19.



Read Next:&nbsp;



<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/24/11/41720318/bitcoin-on-the-evening-of-the-election-heres-how-it-performed-in-2012-2016-and-2020">Bitcoin On The Evening Of The Election—Here&#8217;s How It Performed In 2012, 2016 And 2020</a></li>
</ul>



Image: Shutterstock

$POPCAT

$RUNE

$SHIB

$SOL

Bitcoin, Ethereum Wobble As Election Results Loom, But Dogecoin Surges: Expect 'Brutal' Price Action In The Next 48 Hours, Trader Warns

The stakes are high as Election Day 2024 approaches, with control of Congress and the presidency <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/2024-election">hanging in the balance. </a>



The race remains tightly contested, with Democrats aiming to hold onto the Senate and regain control of the House, while Republicans push to expand their influence in both chambers. In a close election year, various split or sweep outcomes could reshape the U.S. political landscape in ways not seen before, New York Magazine <a href="https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/who-will-win-control-of-house-senate-2024-election.html">reports</a>.



What Happened: In the Senate, Democrats currently hold a slim majority of 51 seats, but Republicans are positioned to gain ground. With Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) retiring, West Virginia is expected to swing Republican, making other Democratic-held seats in battleground states crucial for control. 



The GOP has made significant investments in races like Ohio and Montana, where Democratic incumbents face strong Republican challengers. If Democrats lose key seats, Republicans could secure a Senate majority, especially if close races in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin tilt in their favor, according to New York Magazine.



According to the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/11/01/presidential-election-results-scenarios-trump-harris/">Washington Post</a>, there are multiple possible outcomes in the House. Both parties have a path to victory, with 22 toss-up seats across battleground states like Pennsylvania, Arizona, Michigan, and North Carolina. Notably, five vulnerable Republican-held seats are in California, where Democrats are making a strong push.



If Republicans defend enough toss-up seats, they could narrowly retain control. If Democrats succeed in flipping multiple seats, the House majority could change hands.



Also Read: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/11/41710411/market-analyst-who-predicted-trumps-2016-win-and-bidens-2020-victory-now-sees-former-president-retak">Market Analyst Who Predicted Trump&#8217;s 2016 Win And Biden&#8217;s 2020 Victory, Now Sees Former President Retaking The White House With &#8216;Large Majority Of Swing States&#8217;</a>



Why It Matters: The Washington Post outlines several potential election scenarios, each with unique implications:



<ul>
<li>A Harris and Democratic Sweep: In this scenario, Vice President Kamala Harris narrowly edges out former President Donald Trump, winning swing states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Democrats manage to retain their Senate seats and make key gains in the House, especially in states with competitive districts like New York and California. </li>



<li>A Trump and Republican Sweep: If Trump overperforms in swing states, capitalizing on gains among Black and Hispanic voters in Southern states, he could secure an electoral win. With Republicans holding their Senate advantage and defending vulnerable House seats, this scenario would deliver unified Republican control, aligning both Congress and the White House. </li>



<li>Split Control with a Democratic House and Republican Senate: In a historic first, Democrats could reclaim the House while Republicans take control of the Senate. This split outcome would create a legislative impasse, with each chamber checking the other's power. </li>



<li>Split Control with a Republican House and Democratic Senate: Alternatively, if Republicans retain the House while Democrats hold onto the Senate by winning close races in states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, legislative efforts would likely be limited to bipartisan issues.</li>
</ul>



Read Next:



<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/asia/24/11/41722178/if-trump-and-republicans-sweep-dollar-may-climb-7-but-harris-win-could-bring-5-drop-says-jpmorgan">If Trump And Republicans Sweep, Dollar May Climb 7% — But Harris Win Could Bring 5% Drop, Says JPMorgan</a></li>
</ul>



Photo: Maxim Elramsisy and Phil Mistry on Shutterstock.com

2024 Election Stakes: Potential Sweeps, Split Outcomes In Congressional, Presidential Races

Technology giant NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>) is set to join the Dow Jones Industrial Average on Nov. 8 replacing Intel Corporation (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/INTC#NASDAQ">INTC</a>), a move predicted by several market experts to <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/top-stories/24/05/39011237/exclusive-nvidia-dow-jones-inclusion-a-matter-of-when-will-it-replace-intel">Benzinga months ago.</a>



Here's a look at what the Dow Jones Industrial Average inclusion means for Nvidia and why another addition to the index could be more important.



What Happened: Nvidia <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/24/11/41699259/nvidia-rides-ai-wave-to-replace-intel-on-dow-jones-industrial-average-ending-its-25-year-run">will replace Intel</a> in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, a move that may have been predicted by a 10-for-1 stock split by the tech giant earlier this year.



"Price wise, shares are at that elevated level where they have announced a split in the past. Rumor wise, a stock split would make shares more attractive to be added to the Dow Jones Industrial Average," Freedom Capital Markets Chief Strategist Jay Woods said before the split was announced.



Woods told Benzinga Nvidia was a prime candidate to be included in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which is tracked by the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DIA#NYSE">DIA</a>).



"When you're the face of the next wave of growth in technology, that being AI, that being the chipmaker, that to me says you should be represented in the Dow Jones Industrial Average," Woods previously told Benzinga.



Launched in 1896, the <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/dow-jones-industrial-average">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a> is a well-known stock market index that includes 30 blue-chip U.S. companies. The index often changes to include the best barometers of American growth.



One of the key differences between the Dow Jones Industrial Average and other market indexes like the S&amp;P 500 is the Dow is price-weighted and does not account for changes in market capitalization.



This means that company's that have higher share prices have larger weightings than those with smaller stock prices. So while Nvidia's stock split may have helped the company get into the index, it will now hurt the company's position in the index.



Based on data from <a href="https://www.slickcharts.com/dowjones">Slickcharts</a>, Nvidia would be the 21st largest company by weighting in the index if it were added today. The stock would position after Chevron ($153.33) and ahead of 3M Co ($126.94) with a price of $138.76 at the time of writing. Nvidia would have an estimated weighting of between 1.98% and 2.38% based on the current weighting of 3M and Chevron respectively.



Compare that to UnitedHealth Group Inc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UNH#NYSE">UNH</a>), currently the largest weighting in the Dow Jones Industrial Average at $556.81 and 8.8%.



Intel, which is being replaced by Nvidia, is currently ranked last in the index with a price of $22.54 and weighting of 0.36%.



As one of the largest companies in the world, Nvidia is the second largest weighting in the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>), which tracks the S&amp;P 500 Index, representing 6.8% of assets in the ETF. Nvidia is also the second largest weighting in the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLK#NYSE">XLK</a>), which tracks the tech sector, with the stock having a weighting of 14.25%.



Are you buying when the CEOs of the Magnificent 7 are selling?Stay in the know with our Insider Trades page — <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/sec/insider-trades/">see when leaders like Mark Zuckerberg, Elon Musk, and Jensen Huang are offloading their own shares.</a>



Another Dow Index Addition: While investors are excited about Nvidia joining the Dow Jones Industrial Average, they might want to look at Sherwin-Williams Co (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SHW#NYSE">SHW</a>), which will have a large weighting in the index and see heavier buying from ETFs that cover the index.



Sherwin-Williams has a current share price of $372.97, which will give the company a higher weighting in the index. The stock would currently rank sixth in the index between Caterpillar ($377.72) and Amgen ($317.75). If Sherwin-Williams were added today, the stock would have an estimated weighting of between 4.97% and 5.91%.



Sherwin-Williams is replacing Dow Inc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DOW#NYSE">DOW</a>) in the index, which currently ranks 28th with a price of $48.10 and a weighting of 0.76%.



The new weightings will depend on prices ahead of the Nov. 8 changes and also be impacted by two of the smaller holdings exiting the index.



Why It's Important: Intel has been a member of the Dow Jones Industrial Average since 1999 but has lagged in stock performance in recent years.



Nvidia is more relevant than Intel and used by the biggest companies, Woods previously told Benzinga.



"The growth is there, the story is there, and now the price is there," Woods said.



Benzinga's "PreMarket Prep" co-host Dennis Dick also predicted Nvidia replacing Intel in the index earlier this year.



"I'd expect this announcement sometime in the summer. I don't think it's a matter of ‘if' NVDA goes into the Dow, I think it's now a matter of ‘when,'" Dick said.



Nvidia shares are up 188.1% year-to-date in 2024 and up 2,573.6% over the past five years. Intel stock is down 52.9% year-to-date in 2024 and down 61.4% over the past five years.



Sherwin-Williams stock is up 22.3% year-to-date in 2024 and up 92.5% over the past five years. Dow stock is down 14.0% year-to-date in 2024 and down 15.0% over the last five years.



The negative performance for Intel and Dow may explain why the Dow Jones Industrial Average has underperformed the S&amp;P 500 index. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF is up 11.1% year-to-date and up 51.2% over the past five years. Compare that to the SPY, which is up 20.8% year-to-date and up 84.9% over the past five years.



Read Next: 



<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/top-stories/24/11/41718416/exclusive-top-20-most-searched-tickers-on-benzinga-pro-in-october-2024-where-do-tesla-nvidia-apple-d">EXCLUSIVE: Top 20 Most-Searched Tickers On Benzinga Pro In October 2024 — Where Do Tesla, Nvidia, Apple, DJT Stock Rank?</a></li>
</ul>



Photo: Shutterstock

Broad U.S. Equity ETFs

INTC

Nvidia Joining Dow Jones Industrial Average: Where Tech Giant Ranks In The Index, Why Sherwin-Williams Addition Could Be More Important

JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. analysts indicate that the fate of the U.S. dollar could swing dramatically depending on the outcome of <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/2024-election">the upcoming presidential elections. </a>



A Donald Trump victory with Republicans gaining full control of Congress could drive the dollar up by as much as 7.3%, while a victory of Kamala Harris with a divided Congress might lead to a drop of over 5% in the dollar's trade-weighted index (TWI), according to a report released last week.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">The impact of a Trump victory on the dollar</h3>



If Donald Trump returns to the White House, JPMorgan predicts a series of aggressive trade policies that could propel the dollar.



In particular, Trump has already threatened to hike tariffs on Chinese imports to 60% and suggested the possibility of introducing a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports. 



The return of Trump's protectionist trade policies would likely lead to a tariff-heavy approach that, according to JPMorgan's estimates, could bolster the dollar significantly.



&#8220;There is precedent for what the combination of fiscal stimulus and tariffs can do for FX; it is well known that the dollar benefited from both of these channels throughout 2018- 2019,&#8221; JPMorgan wrote. 



In a "Republican sweep" scenario, the dollar is expected to rally significantly, with the trade-weighted dollar index—tracked by the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>)—projected to gain 7.3%. In this case, the greenback could see its strongest gains against the Swedish krona (SEK), rising by 10.8%, and the euro (EUR), with an anticipated increase of 8.4%.



Conversely, if Harris wins with a split Congress, JPMorgan expects the dollar to experience its steepest decline, with the trade-weighted dollar index potentially dropping by 5.4%. This outcome would likely lead to a weaker dollar as trade tensions ease and economic priorities shift.



The table below highlights JPMorgan&#8217;s projected currency movements over the next one to two quarters under various election outcomes, providing forex traders with insights into how the 2024 U.S. election could shape the dollar&#8217;s trajectory.



<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"><table><thead><tr><th>Election Scenario</th><th>USD TWI Change</th><th>USD vs. CNY</th><th>USD vs. EUR</th><th>USD vs. CAD</th><th>USD vs. CAD</th><th>USD vs. AUD</th><th>USD vs. SEK</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Republican Sweep</td><td>+7.3%</td><td>+4.4%</td><td>+8.4%</td><td>+4.7%</td><td>+6.1%</td><td>+7.9%</td><td>+10.8%</td></tr><tr><td>Trump w/ Split Congress</td><td>+3.3%</td><td>+3.0%</td><td>+4.3%</td><td>+3.3%</td><td>-5.4%</td><td>+4.6%</td><td>+5.0%</td></tr><tr><td>Harris w/ Split Congress</td><td>-5.4%</td><td>-2.7%</td><td>-3.9%</td><td>-4.0%</td><td>-4.0%</td><td>-2.9%</td><td>-5.6%</td></tr><tr><td>Democratic Sweep</td><td>-3.9%</td><td>-2.0%</td><td>-3.1%</td><td>-2.5%</td><td>-0.7%</td><td>-1.4%</td><td>-4.6%</td></tr></tbody></table><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Source: J.P. Morgan Global FX Strategy</figcaption></figure>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Why could Trump&#8217;s tariffs trigger a dollar rally?</h3>



Economists at JPMorgan, the world's largest investment bank, estimate that the tariffs imposed during Trump's first term raised inflation by about 0.3% and shaved 0.4% off GDP growth. 



However, analysts at JPMorgan warn that a second Trump administration could cause even greater economic disruptions if tariffs are ramped up further.



"In the event of a Trump 2.0 administration, the impact from a tariff war 2.0 could be much higher," the JPMorgan team stated. 



They project that a 60% tariff on all Chinese imports would raise U.S. consumer prices by 1.1%, while a universal 10% tariff on all imports could push inflation up by as much as 1.5%.



In a worst-case scenario—where both a 60% tariff on Chinese goods and a 10% universal tariff are imposed—inflation could spike by 2.4%, putting significant pressure on American consumers and businesses.



This inflationary surge would likely force the Federal Reserve to shift back to a more hawkish stance, reversing any plans to ease monetary policy. 



Higher interest rates would be necessary to counteract the inflationary impact of tariffs, which could create a stronger monetary policy divergence between the U.S. and other economies.



For the dollar, this scenario would represent a tailwind. Rising interest rates make U.S. assets, like Treasuries, more attractive to foreign investors due to their higher yields. This increased demand for U.S. assets, driven by yield differentials, would boost demand for dollars, strengthening the greenback further in the face of escalating trade tensions.



Read Next:



<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/24/10/41455013/how-us-elections-could-impact-us-dollar-goldman-sachs-expects-greenback-will-remain-stronger-for-lon">How US Elections Could Impact US Dollar: Goldman Sachs Expects Greenback Will Remain &#8216;Stronger For Longer&#8217;</a></li>
</ul>

Currency ETFs

If Trump And Republicans Sweep, Dollar May Climb 7% — But Harris Win Could Bring 5% Drop, Says JPMorgan

The Symbol TSMC was not found. Here are some similar symbols and popular symbols to consider.

TSMC Page Not Found - Benzinga

Symbol Similar to: TSMC

Top Gaining Stocks

뉴스

파트너 / 기고자

벤징가 글로벌