Wall Street wiped out its entire post-election rally this week as mounting interest-rate fears were stoked by a red-hot labor market, surging inflation expectations and escalating geopolitical tensions ahead of Donald Trump&#8216;s <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/25/01/42916780/donald-trump-receives-unconditional-discharge-in-new-york-hush-money-case-will-enter-white-house-as-convicted-felon">return to the White House</a>. 



In a shortened trading week due to Thursday&#8217;s funeral for former President Jimmy Carter, market activity reached a<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/01/42922299/wall-street-tumbles-on-blowout-payrolls-oil-rallies-to-76-us-dollar-hits-26-month-highs-whats-driving-markets-friday"> fever pitch on Friday.</a>



The U.S. economy boasted an impressive <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/01/42912480/us-economy-adds-256000-payrolls-in-december-as-tight-labor-market-tops-forecasts-dollar-treasury-yields-spike">256,000 nonfarm payrolls</a> in December — a figure that made the consensus economist forecast of 160,000 jobs pale in comparison. This marked the strongest employment growth since March. Additionally, the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%, beating forecasts of 4.2%.



In simple terms, the U.S. labor market ended 2024 firing on all cylinders. While this robust performance bodes well for consumer spending, it poses a significant challenge for the Federal Reserve, which now faces mounting pressure to <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/01/42913622/dollar-soars-to-27-month-highs-30-year-yields-hit-5-stocks-tumble-jobs-report-oil-spike-darken-feds-interest-rate-cut-hopes">keep inflation in check.</a>



Expectations for a new interest rate cut were further pushed down the road to September 2025 in reactions to new economic developments. For stocks, this represented a setback, as indices tumbled across the board.



Earlier in the week, President-elect Trump, in a one-hour speech at Mar-a-Lago, floated provocative ideas, including annexing <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/events/25/01/42860583/trump-floats-canada-as-51st-us-state-says-hes-ready-to-use-economic-force-to-achieve-it">Canada as a 51st state</a>, imposing stringent tariffs on Mexico and demanding NATO members increase military spending to 5% of GDP.



On Friday, the Biden administration announced <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs/sector-etfs/25/01/42919047/oil-nears-80-as-us-prepares-new-russia-sanctions">new sanctions targeting Russian oil </a>giants Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegas, shadow fleet vessels and opaque traders. These measures triggered a sharp rise in oil prices, further unsettling markets.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Inflation Fears Surge</h3>



Consumer inflation expectations for the next five years reached 3.3% in January 2025, hitting their highest levels since June 2008, according to <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/01/42917321/consumer-inflation-worries-highest-since-2008-u-of-m-survey-says-wall-street-tumbles-to-2-month-lows">a University of Michigan survey</a>. Rising inflation anxiety may reflect concerns over the incoming Trump administration&#8217;s planned tariff hikes.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Wildfires Impact Insurers</h3>



California wildfires destroyed over 10,000 structures, intensifying pressure on property insurers like Allstate Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ALL#NYSE">ALL</a>) and Travelers Companies (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TRV#NYSE">TRV</a>). Economic losses could reach $57 billion, with insurance <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/01/42906089/california-wildfires-ignite-concerns-for-insurance-stocks-here-are-some-insurance-etfs-which-could-be-impacted">stocks under market focus.</a>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Rate Hike Panic</h3>



The blowout December jobs report forced Bank of America Securities to scrap expectations for further interest-rate cuts. It marks a notable U-turn from a top investment bank. Economist Aditya Bhave floated the risk of rising discussions towards interest rate cuts, should core inflation <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/25/01/42926956/bank-of-america-scraps-interest-rate-cut-calls-betting-markets-go-haywire-as-hiking-panic-mounts">surges above 3% again. </a>



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<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/25/01/42925767/palantirs-nasdaq-100-hype-fades-as-stock-sinks-post-inclusion">Palantir&#8217;s Nasdaq-100 Hype Fades As Stock Sinks 15% Post-Inclusion</a></li>
</ul>



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US Labor Market Smashes Expectations, Wall Street Erases Post-Election Rally As Interest Rate Anxiety Grows: This Week In The Markets

The December jobs report upended market expectations, forcing top Wall Street investment banks to abandon their forecast for further interest rate cuts in 2025. A labor market exceeding even the most optimistic estimates has traders now bracing for the unthinkable: the return <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/interest-rates">of interest rate hikes.</a>



In a note released Friday, Bank of America economist Aditya Bhave said the bank no longer expects any additional rate cuts this year, a sharp U-turn from its prior prediction of two reductions. 



"The December jobs report was extremely solid across the board," Bhave said, adding, "We think this A+ jobs report closes the door for additional rate cuts."



<h1 class="wp-block-heading">December&#8217;s A+ Jobs Report</h1>



The December nonfarm payrolls figure came in at 256,000, far exceeding the bank's own expectations of 175,000 and crushing the consensus estimate of 160,000. The robust labor market data signals continued resilience in the U.S. economy, with wage growth outpacing inflation and supporting purchasing power.



Bank of America also highlighted the strength of income growth, with the aggregate payrolls index — a proxy for total wage income — rising 0.4% month-over-month and 5.4% on a three-month annualized basis.



With wages growing faster than prices, consumers retain significant spending power, offsetting fears of an economic slowdown, according to the investment bank. 



Yet, while this is good news for the U.S. consumer, it is less so the Federal Reserve grappling with a resurgence in price pressures. 



<h1 class="wp-block-heading">&#8216;The Conversation Should Move To Hikes&#8217;</h1>



Bhave said inflation remains "above target" and warned that risks are skewed to the upside, noting robust economic activity as a key factor. 



"The conversation should move to hikes," he said, indicating that the Federal Reserve could raise rates if core inflation exceeds 3% or long-term inflation expectations lose its anchor.



This marks a dramatic shift in tone, with Bank of America not only ruling out further easing despite earlier predictions but also flagging the potential risk of a new hiking period. 



In November 2024, the core Personal Consumption Expenditure price index — Fed&#8217;s favorite inflation gauge — was up 2.8% annually.



<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Market Reaction: Betting On A Long Wait</h1>



Traders in the fed funds futures market have drastically recalibrated their expectations. Prior to the jobs report, a rate cut in the first quarter of 2025 was seen as a distinct possibility.



Now, the odds of a cut by the Fed's March meeting have dwindled to just 23%, according to CME's FedWatch tool.



The first meeting with significant probabilities of a cut now appears to be in July, with a 70% chance of a 25-basis-point reduction. Even then, a fully priced-in rate cut is unlikely until October 2025, fed futures indicate.



The recalibration of interest rate cuts is producing shockwaves across markets. On Friday, indices witnessed notable declines, with the S&amp;P 500 — tracked by the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) — down by 1.4% during afternoon trading in New York.



Meanwhile, speculation over a potential rate hike is gaining momentum.



On Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated prediction platform, the market for "Next Fed rate hike?" has surged to a 33% probability of an increase in the fed funds rate by Dec. 31, 2025, up sharply from 20% before the jobs report. For every dollar wagered on "Yes," the payout now stands at $3.



Read Now: 



<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/01/42922299/wall-street-tumbles-on-blowout-payrolls-oil-rallies-to-76-us-dollar-hits-26-month-highs-whats-driving-markets-friday">Wall Street Tumbles On Blowout Payrolls, Oil Rallies To $76, US Dollar Hits 26-Month Highs: What&#8217;s Driving Markets Friday?</a></li>
</ul>



Photo: Shutterstock

Broad U.S. Equity ETFs

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Bank Of America Scraps Interest Rate Cut Calls, Betting Markets Go Haywire As Hiking Panic Mounts

This week, Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>), the parent company of Facebook, Instagram and Threads, announced significant changes to its <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/01/42851889/meta-ditches-fact-checking-for-community-notes-zuckerberg-says-opportunity-to-restore-free-expression">content moderation policies</a>, shifting toward a "community notes" model where users flag questionable content instead of relying on third-party fact-checkers.



&#8220;So, we're going to continue to focus these systems on tackling illegal and high-severity violations, like terrorism, child sexual exploitation, drugs, fraud and scams,&#8221; said CEO Mark Zuckerberg, who <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2025/01/07/is-zuckerberg-kneeling-to-trump-00196991">has implied </a>that he&#8217;s keen to work with President-elect Donald Trump, after having banned him<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/23/02/30848473/trumps-back-on-facebook-and-instagram-for-real" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener"> from his platforms.</a>



"Too much harmless content gets censored, too many people find themselves wrongly locked up in ‘Facebook jail,' and we are often too slow to respond when they do," said Zuckerberg, referring to the automated systems that scan for policy violations but can make mistakes. "We want to fix that and return to that fundamental commitment to free expression. Today, we're making some changes to stay true to that ideal."



<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Why Then Is Cannabis Still In Facebook Jail?</h1>



For those in the cannabis community, whether medical marijuana patients or industry advocates and news outlets, the announcement seems to leave their concerns unaddressed. 



Despite these changes, Meta continues to block searches for terms like "marijuana" and "cannabis." Searches for organizations such as the "Massachusetts Cannabis Control Commission," "Marijuana Policy Project," or "Marijuana Moment," the cannabis outlet that <a href="https://www.marijuanamoment.net/despite-sweeping-updates-to-facebook-policies-in-favor-of-free-expression-restrictions-on-marijuana-related-accounts-remain/">pointed out</a> these contradictions, yield no results. Instead users find the following notification: "If you see the sale of drugs, please report it." 



This approach persists even as many states have legalized marijuana, hamstringing businesses, advocates and content creators who have had their accounts suspended or restricted. 



Meta's statement regarding illegal activities essentially suggests there has been no shift in its stance on cannabis, which it apparently has filed under its list of "high severity violations, like terrorism, drugs, fraud, and scams."



Meta did not respond to Benzinga's request for clarification on whether or how the new policies would impact its treatment of cannabis-related content. For now, the cannabis community remains sidelined, despite the company's rhetoric about embracing free expression and reducing censorship.



Now Read:



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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/01/42904686/metas-internal-documents-reveal-secret-policy-protecting-high-spending-advertisers-from-automated-content-moderation-report">Meta Documents Reveal Secret Policy Protecting Big-Spender Advertisers From Automated Content Moderation: Report</a></li>
</ul>



Photo: Shutterstock

Cannabis

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Meta's New Moderation Policies Do Not Extend To Marijuana Content, Cannabis Searches Still Blocked

Palantir Technologies Inc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PLTR#NYSE">PLTR</a>) joined the prestigious <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/nasdaq-100">Nasdaq-100 index</a> on Dec. 23, a milestone often seen as a vote of confidence for companies with promising growth trajectories.



Yet, rather than boosting investor sentiment, the stock has since tumbled over 15%, vastly underperforming broader market benchmarks. 



For comparison, the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) slipped just 0.87%, while the tech-heavy Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>) fell a modest 1.45% during the same period.



<h1 class="wp-block-heading">High Expectations, Harsh Reality</h1>



Inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 is usually accompanied by a wave of enthusiasm. However, Palantir&#8217;s slide underscores mounting challenges facing high-growth tech firms. 



Market sentiment has turned cautious as investors question the sustainability of lofty valuations amid economic uncertainty and rising interest rates. Despite expanding its footprint in commercial sectors and securing high-profile contracts, Palantir faces skepticism over its cost structure and pathway to profitability. 



Palantir's heavy focus on government contracts and its complex business model have become key points of scrutiny. 



Read Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/01/42891906/palantir-cto-shyam-sankar-challenges-automations-potential-as-selling-pressure-mounts-what-have-we-been-doing-for-20-years">Palantir CTO Shyam Sankar Challenges Automation&#8217;s Potential As Selling Pressure Mounts: &#8216;What Have We Been Doing For 20 Years?&#8217;</a>



<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Palantir Stock: Mixed Signals From Moving Averages</h1>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><a href="https://bzresearch.myclickfunnels.com/benzinga-pro-content-webinar-registration/?utm_source=BZprocontent011025&amp;t=be2bearmibe3na1"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="630" height="494" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/10134353/Screenshot-2025-01-11-at-12.13.39-AM.png" alt="" class="wp-image-728797" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/10134353/Screenshot-2025-01-11-at-12.13.39-AM.png 630w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/10134353/Screenshot-2025-01-11-at-12.13.39-AM-300x235.png 300w" sizes="(max-width: 630px) 100vw, 630px" /></a></figure>



<a href="https://bzresearch.myclickfunnels.com/benzinga-pro-content-webinar-registration/?utm_source=BZprocontent011025&amp;t=be2bearmibe3na1" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Chart created using Benzinga Pro</a>



At $67.40, PLTR stock shows divergence across key moving averages:



<ul>
<li>The eight-day SMA (simple moving average) at $73.68 and 20-day SMA at $75.60 both indicate a bearish outlook, reflecting downward short-term momentum.</li>



<li>Meanwhile, the 50-day SMA at $66.53 suggests a bullish signal, highlighting possible mid-term recovery potential.</li>



<li>The 200-day SMA at $38.10 reinforces a bullish stance, underscoring investor optimism over the long term.</li>
</ul>



<h1 class="wp-block-heading">MACD, RSI Indicators Suggest Tentative Strength</h1>



The MACD (moving average convergence/divergence) indicator reads 1.16, signaling bullish momentum as upward pressure builds. 



The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 41.97 remains in the neutral territory, implying PLTR stock is neither overbought nor oversold, indicating a balanced market sentiment.



<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Balancing Bearish Signals With Recovery Potential</h1>



Despite short-term bearish indicators, Palantir&#8217;s ability to maintain key support levels signals potential for recovery. The contrast between short-term pressure and long-term bullish trends highlights the importance of closely monitoring price movements.



With market dynamics shifting, investors should brace for continued volatility, keeping a watchful eye on technical developments and broader economic conditions.



As tech stocks face heightened scrutiny, Palantir's journey on the Nasdaq-100 will be a crucial gauge of whether the company can realign investor sentiment and stabilize its market trajectory.



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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/global/25/01/42910173/palantir-co-founder-joe-lonsdale-sets-realistic-expectations-for-elon-musks-doge-initiative-next-trillion-will-be-a-lot-harder">Palantir Co-Founder Joe Lonsdale Sets Realistic Expectations For Elon Musk&#8217;s DOGE Initiative: &#8216;Next Trillion Will Be A Lot Harder&#8217;</a></li>
</ul>



Photo: Shutterstock

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Palantir's Nasdaq-100 Hype Fades As Stock Sinks 15% Post-Inclusion

Companies in California and across the United States are pitching in to help consumers dealing with <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/01/42899953/five-dead-in-los-angeles-wildfires-utilities-face-scrutiny">wildfires in the state.</a>



What Happened: Wildfires in California have forced thousands of people to be evacuated from their homes as wildfires led to power outages and damaged properties, marking one of the potentially highest costing events in state history for the insurance industry.



Companies are pitching in to help consumers by delaying payments, offering free services and providing necessities like places to stay and food.



Here's a look at a portion of the companies offering help:



SpaceX: The company is <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/space/25/01/42892886/spacex-ceo-elon-musk-offers-free-starlink-terminals-to-los-angeles-areas-affected-by-wildfires">providing free Starlink</a> terminals to areas near Los Angeles impacted by the wildfires, CEO Elon Musk announced Thursday. The tweet came with a local media reporter sharing that they were using Starlink to be able to provide live coverage with a lack of cell service in the area.



Sweetgreen (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SG#NYSE">SG</a>): The restaurant chain's co-founder Nicholas Jammet <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/nicolas-jammet-5b9b878/?trk=public_post_embed_feed-actor-name">shared </a>a video on LinkedIn saying the company was hoping to provide food to as many people impacted by the wildfires as possible.



"We want to help, we want to feed as many people as possible," Jammet said in the video.



Starbucks (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SBUX#NASDAQ">SBUX</a>): One Starbucks location was destroyed by fires in the area, Bloomberg <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/live-blog/2025-01-08/palisades-fire-near-los-angeles-latest?srnd=homepage-americas&amp;sref=TBDibEcD">reported</a>. Another location handed out coffee and food to first responders to help in the efforts.



Target Corporation (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TGT#NYSE">TGT</a>): The retailer said is was fast-tracking critical supplies to stores near Los Angeles to help get necessary supplies to first responders and customers quicker.



Kroger (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/KR#NYSE">KR</a>): The retailer lost a location in the Palisades region from the fires. The retailer is also giving food and water to people in the fire-impacted areas.



Albertsons (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ACI#NYSE">ACI</a>): The retailer is also giving food and water to first responders in the wildfire areas.



Lyft Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/LYFT#NASDAQ">LYFT</a>): The ride-share company announced it was offering free and discounted rides to and from shelters for impacted California residents.



"Lyft is committed to providing access to reliable transportation, especially in emergencies to support communities in need," Lyft Social Impact Manager Celia Moreno <a href="https://www.lyft.com/blog/posts/help-for-those-impacted-by-wildfire-in-california">said</a>.



U-Haul (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UHAL#NYSE">UHAL</a>): The moving and storage company is offering 30 days free storage at 92 facilities located in Southern California for those impacted by the wildfires.



"People are hurting and in need of help. U-Haul is part of these communities, and if we can help our neighbors in this process, we are going to do so," U-Haul area district vice president Chris Piedra <a href="https://www.uhaul.com/Articles/About/Ca-Wildfire-Assistance-U-Haul-Offers-30-Days-Free-Storage-AT-92-Centers-33115/">said</a>.



Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>): The technology giant is providing temporary relief for Apple Card users in the Los Angeles area, allowing people to postpone payments without interest, as <a href="https://x.com/markgurman/status/1877480784648397264?s=46">reported </a>by Bloomberg writer Mark Gurman. Apple CEO Tim Cook also announced the company will be donating to help in the wildfire efforts.



"Thank you to the incredible firefighters, first responders, and all those assisting for your heroic efforts. Apple will be donating to support the victims and recovery efforts on the ground," Cook <a href="https://x.com/tim_cook/status/1877176338651439162">tweeted</a>.



Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>): The electric vehicle company <a href="https://x.com/tesla_na/status/1877454782647980368">announced </a>it was forgiving Autopilot and FSD Supervised strikes to people in California to provide them with more options when evacuating the region.



Planet Fitness (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PLNT#NYSE">PLNT</a>): The gym chain is offering its locations to first responders and local residents in the impacted areas as a place to shower and charge devices through January 15, as <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/los-angeles-wildfires-pacific-palisades-planet-fitness-airbnb/">reported </a>by CBS News.



Airbnb (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ABNB#NASDAQ">ABNB</a>): The house rental's Airbnb.org charitable arm is helping find free temporary housing for people who had to evacuate their homes.



Toyota (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TM#NYSE">TM</a>): The automotive company <a href="https://pressroom.toyota.com/toyota-supports-california-fires-relief-efforts/">announced </a>it would offer payment relief options to those impacted by the wildfires and is also matching donations from U.S. employees made to nonprofits like The American Red Cross.



AT&amp;T (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/T#NYSE">T</a>): The telecommunications company <a href="https://about.att.com/pages/disaster-recovery/california-fires">waived </a>overage charges and is offering unlimited talk, text and data through Feb. 6, 2025 to customers in the impacted areas.



T-Mobile (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TMUS#NASDAQ">TMUS</a>): The telecommunications company <a href="https://www.t-mobile.com/news/network/t-mobile-stands-prepared-as-wildfires-impact-southern-california">providing</a> free Wi-Fi and device charging at some retail stores in the area as well as Wi-Fi at command posts. The company is also offering unlimited talk, text and data to customers in the impacted area through Jan. 15.



DoorDash (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DASH#NASDAQ">DASH</a>): The food delivery company <a href="https://about.doordash.com/en-us/news/los-angeles-wildfires-2025">offered </a>$150,000 in community credits to first responders and organizations on the ground in the impacted regions, allowing people helping with the efforts and displaced from their homes to get food and essential supplies quickly. The company is providing relief grants for local restaurants through the Restaurant Disaster Relief Fund. A total of $250,000 is also available through the Dasher Relief Fund for eligible drivers in the region impacted by the fire.



Read Next: 



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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/entertainment/25/01/42888380/los-angeles-fires-shut-down-production-of-tv-shows-fallout-abbott-elementary-hacks-film-premieres-canceled-critics-choice-awards-delayed">Los Angeles Fires Shut Down Production Of TV Shows &#8216;Fallout,&#8217; &#8216;Abbott Elementary,&#8217; &#8216;Hacks&#8217;; Film Premieres Canceled, Critics Choice Awards Delayed</a></li>
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Photo: Shutterstock

AAPL

ABNB

DASH

LYFT

PLNT

SBUX

TMUS

TSLA

UHAL

SpaceX, Apple, Airbnb And More Companies Pitch In To Support California Residents After Wildfires: 'We Want To Help'

Oil prices are heating up, and so are the stocks of <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/energy">major energy companies</a>. 



Shares of Chevron Corporation (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CVX#NYSE">CVX</a>), Occidental Petroleum (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/OXY#NYSE">OXY</a>), and ConocoPhillips (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/COP#NYSE">COP</a>) were trading in the green at the last check on Friday. The rally follows a Reuters report suggesting the U.S. is preparing its most <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs/sector-etfs/25/01/42919047/oil-nears-80-as-us-prepares-new-russia-sanctions">stringent sanctions yet</a> against Russian oil.



These sanctions, expected to target 180 vessels, major <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/oil?_gl=1&#x2A;1aeuuae&#x2A;_gcl_au&#x2A;MTQ3Nzg4MTMxMi4xNzM1NTczMTA3&#x2A;_ga&#x2A;R1MxLjEuMTczNjUyMjc2NC4xLjEuMTczNjUyMjg4Ni4wLjAuMA..&#x2A;_ga_V7ZK73W7N0&#x2A;MTczNjUyMDk1NC40Ni4xLjE3MzY1MjY3NDYuMC4wLjA.">oil </a>companies, and top executives, have already pushed oil prices to $80 per barrel — a level not seen since October 2024. 



Traders are responding to the anticipated disruption in global oil supply, and some ETFs with oil and energy exposure stand to reap the benefits.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">What This Means For ETFs</h3>



<ul>
<li>The United States Oil Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>) was trading 3.73% higher as of 12.13 P.M. EST</li>



<li>The Invesco DB Oil Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DBO#NYSE">DBO</a>) rose about 3.84%. </li>



<li>The United States 12 Month Oil Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USL#NYSE">USL</a>) posted a 2.21% gain.</li>



<li>The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XOP#NYSE">XOP</a>), with an expense ratio of 0.09% and a 91.26% exposure to the Oil, Gas &amp; Consumable Fuels make it a good bet for investors of oil-focused ETFs. The portfolio includes Exxon Mobil, Chevron and ConocoPhillips.</li>



<li>Vanguard Energy ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VDE#NYSE">VDE</a>) has an expense ratio of 0.10% and like XOP, Exxon Mobil, Chevron and ConocoPhillips enjoys significant weightage in the fund.</li>
</ul>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Geopolitics and Market Dynamics</h3>



Sanctions on Russia — one of the world's largest oil producers — are expected to tighten supply. Prices are expected to go higher. Ongoing reduction in U.S. crude stockpiles, particularly at the Cushing, Oklahoma hub, as reported by Reuters, adds to the pressure.



While tighter supplies drive prices upward, concerns about demand persist. China&#8217;s fuel oil imports are likely to fall early 2025 thanks to a hike in oil import tax from Jan. 1. 



Weaker demand from China, one of the biggest crude oil importers, could weigh on prices in the longer term. 



See Next: 



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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/12/42340255/opec-extends-oil-output-cuts-to-late-2026-what-it-means-for-markets">OPEC+ Extends Oil Output Cuts To Late 2026: What It Means For Markets</a></li>
</ul>



Photo: Shutterstock

Sector ETFs

Oil Stocks Rally On Anticipation Of Stricter Russian Sanctions: Here's How ETFs Are Reacting

Wall Street faced heavy selling pressure in its first trading session after former President Jimmy Carter's funeral, as a series of economic developments rattled interest rate and energy markets, sparking heightened <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets">risk aversion among investors.</a>



The U.S. economy added 256,000 jobs in December, far exceeding expectations of a slowdown to 160,000. The unemployment rate dipped to 4.1%, defying forecasts that had anticipated it to remain at 4.2%.



This red-hot labor market data spurred traders to recalibrate their interest-rate projections. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, expectations for a rate cut have been postponed even further, with markets now fully pricing in a reduction only by September 2025.



Adding to market turmoil, oil prices — as tracked by the United States Oil Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>) — surged more than 3% to $76 per barrel after the Biden administration imposed stricter sanctions on Russian oil exports. These measures targeted major Russian oil companies, shadow fleet tankers and opaque trading networks, intensifying pressure on Moscow&#8217;s energy revenues.



Rising interest rate concerns and inflation uncertainty weighed heavily on equities. The latest University of Michigan consumer survey showed five-year inflation expectations rise to 3.3%, the highest since June 2008.



The S&amp;P 500 dropped nearly 2%, hovering around the 5,800-point level, fully erasing gains made since the election. 



Technology and small-cap stocks bore the brunt of the sell-off, with sharper declines across both sectors.



The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) climbed to 109.70, marking its highest level since November 2022. The greenback is on track to notch its sixth consecutive weekly gain and has risen in 14 of the past 15 weeks, underscoring its dominance as a safe haven amid market turbulence.



Treasury yields climbed further as fixed-income investors braced for the possibility of persistent inflation. The 10-year Treasury yield rose seven basis points to 4.76%, nearing its late October 2023 highs.



The 30-year Treasury yield briefly touched the 5% mark, a level last seen in October 2023 and previously in August 2007.



Gold prices offered a haven for risk-averse investors, climbing 0.9% as geopolitical uncertainties mounted.



Meanwhile, Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) saw some dip-buying activity, up by 1.2%, snapping a three-day losing streak during which it shed 10% of its value. 



<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Friday&#8217;s Performance In Major U.S. Indices, ETFs</h1>



<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"><table><tbody><tr><td>Major Indices</td><td>Price</td><td>1-day % chg</td></tr><tr><td>S&amp;P 500</td><td>5,812.53</td><td>-1.8%</td></tr><tr><td>Dow Jones</td><td>41,837.77</td><td>-1.9%</td></tr><tr><td>Nasdaq 100</td><td>20,744.86</td><td>-2.1%</td></tr><tr><td>Russell 2000</td><td>2,173.84</td><td>-2.9%</td></tr></tbody></table><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Updated at 12:30 p.m. ET</figcaption></figure>



According to&nbsp;<a href="https://bzresearch.myclickfunnels.com/benzinga-pro-content-webinar-registration/?utm_source=BZprocontent010625&amp;t=be2bearmibe3na1" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Benzinga Pro</a>&nbsp;data:



<ul>
<li>The&nbsp;SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) flattened at $588.43.</li>



<li>The&nbsp;SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DIA#NYSE">DIA</a>)&nbsp;was unchanged at $425.08.</li>



<li>The tech-heavy&nbsp;Invesco QQQ Trust Series&nbsp;(NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>) eased 0.1% to $514.72.</li>



<li>The&nbsp;iShares Russell 2000 ETF&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IWM#NYSE">IWM</a>) dipped 1% to $220.91.</li>



<li>The&nbsp;Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLV#NYSE">XLV</a>) outperformed, up 0.4%; the&nbsp;Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLC#NYSE">XLC</a>) lagged, down 0.9%.</li>
</ul>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Friday&#8217;s Stock Movers</h3>



<ul>
<li>Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMD#NASDAQ">AMD</a>) tumbled 5% after Goldman Sachs downgraded the stock from Buy to Neutral.</li>



<li>Delta Air Lines Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DAL#NYSE">DAL</a>) soared over 10%, <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/01/42912208/delta-stock-jumps-after-record-q4-earnings-and-strong-2025-outlook">following the release of stronger-than-expected fourth-quarter results</a>. Industry peers American Airlines Group Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAL#NASDAQ">AAL</a>) and United Airlines Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UAL#NASDAQ">UAL</a>) rose 4% and 5%, respectively.</li>



<li>Other stocks reacting to earnings included Jefferies Financial Group Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/JEF#NYSE">JEF</a>), down 12%; Constellation Brands Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/STZ#NYSE">STZ</a>), down 16%; TD Synnex Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SNX#NYSE">SNX</a>), up 6.2% and Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/WBA#NASDAQ">WBA</a>), up 26%,</li>



<li>Insurance-linked stocks faced losses as damage from California&#8217;s wildfires continues to mount. Shares of American International Group Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AIG#NYSE">AIG</a>) fell nearly 2%. Meanwhile, Allstate Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ALL#NYSE">ALL</a>) and Chubb Ltd. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CB#NYSE">CB</a>) plummeted by 7.4% and 4.8%, respectively.</li>



<li>Energy stocks rose in response to soaring oil prices. Chevron Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CVX#NYSE">CVX</a>) soared 2%, buoyed by a bullish note from Bank of America Securities. </li>
</ul>



Read Now: 



<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/25/01/42916780/donald-trump-receives-unconditional-discharge-in-new-york-hush-money-case-will-enter-white-house-as-convicted-felon">Donald Trump Receives Unconditional Discharge In New York Hush Money Case, Will Enter White House As Convicted Felon</a></li>
</ul>



Photo: Shutterstock

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Wall Street Tumbles On Blowout Payrolls, Oil Rallies To $76, US Dollar Hits 26-Month Highs: What's Driving Markets Friday?

President-elect Donald Trump was sentenced with an unconditional discharge in a New York hush money case Friday after a 12-person jury found him guilty of 34 felony counts for falsifying business records.



Here's the latest.



What Happened: After Trump was found guilty in May, sentencing for the case faced several setbacks, including delays until after the 2024 presidential election. Trump and his lawyers unsuccessfully fought to have the <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/politics/24/09/40754802/trump-hush-money-sentencing-will-now-take-place-after-2024-election-to-avoid-any-appearance-to-a">and sentencing delayed</a> until after he is sworn in as president Jan. 20. 



On Friday, Judge Juan Merchan issued a sentence of an unconditional discharge, as <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2025/01/10/nyregion/trump-hush-money-sentencing">reported </a>by the New York Times.



With the ruling, Trump avoids prison time or probation. Merchan explained the seriousness of the sentencing and a "legal mandate" that is carried with it.



Merchan said "Donald Trump the ordinary citizen, Donald Trump the criminal defendant" would not get the same protections of the presidency. Being president will shield Trump from the seriousness of the verdict, Merchan said. 



Merchan stressed the case was no different than others he's presided over, trying to illustrate the point that no person is above the law, including a former or incoming president.



The judge wished Trump "Godspeed" ahead of his inauguration before leaving the bench.



Ahead of sentencing, prosecuting attorney Joshua Steinglass recalled details from the case and the conviction and told the judge that Trump has not shown any remorse for his action, instead spreading disdain "for our institutions and the rule of law."



"This defendant has caused enduring damage to the public perception of the criminal justice system," Steinglass said.



Trump's lawyer Todd Blanche repeated allegations that the case was only brought forward after Trump announced his plans for re-election, labeling the trial as election interference once again.



Trump, who opted not to testify in his trial, was able to address the court Friday and appeared remotely from Mar-A-Lago instead of in person, which was approved by the judge.



"This has been a very terrible experience," Trump said.



The president-elect said the case has "been a tremendous setback" for the state of New York and its court system.



Both Trump and Blanche cited the 2024 election result as showing that Americans gave the last word in the case after seeing the trial play out, with Trump highlighting his winning of all seven key swing states in the election.



"I was treated very, very unfairly, and I thank you very much," Trump said in conclusion. 



Check This Out:



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<li>Lawmakers Made Huge Investments This Year. <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/gov-trades/?utm_source=BZprocontent011025">Get Tips On What They Bought And Sold Ahead Of The 2024 Election With Our Easy-to-Use Tool</a></li>
</ul>



Why It's Important: Friday marked the first time a former or incoming U.S. president has been sentenced in a criminal case. 



Merchan previously rejected Trump's claims that the verdict should be dismissed after his election win or due to violating presidential immunity.



The Supreme Court<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/legal/25/01/42904750/supreme-court-denies-trumps-bid-to-delay-sentencing-in-stormy-daniels-hush-money-case"> rejected a sentencing delay </a>earlier this week in a 5-4 decision. 



Trump took to Truth Social, his social media company owned by Trump Media &amp; Technology Group (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DJT#NASDAQ">DJT</a>), to share his thoughts. 



"I appreciate the time and effort of the United States Supreme Court in trying to remedy the great injustice done to me by the highly conflicted ‘Acting Justice,' who should not have been allowed to try to this case," Trump said.



Trump said Thursday he would be appealing the case.



Trump is<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/23/07/33446444/donald-trump-will-still-run-for-president-if-convicted-and-right-now-thats-perfectly-legal"> still able to become</a> president of the United States, a role he will once again hold with his inauguration set for Jan. 20. Trump will be the first convicted felon to be sworn in as president of the United States.



DJT Price Action: Trump Media &amp; Technology stock is down 2% to $33.69 Friday versus a 52-week trading range of $11.75 to $79.38.



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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/tech/25/01/42898021/google-donates-1-million-to-trump-inauguration-plans-youtube-livestream-pleased-to-support">Google Donates $1 Million To Trump Inauguration, Plans YouTube Livestream: &#8216;Pleased To Support&#8217;</a></li>
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Photo via Shutterstock.

Legal

Donald Trump Receives Unconditional Discharge In New York Hush Money Case, Will Enter White House As Convicted Felon

Long-term inflation expectations among U.S. consumers have surged to their highest levels since the summer of 2008, raising fresh concerns over the Federal Reserve's ability to <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/econ-s">rein in price pressures.</a>



In a report released Friday, the University of Michigan's preliminary consumer sentiment survey for January revealed a notable shift in inflation expectations. 



The year-ahead inflation gauge jumped to 3.3%, up from December's 2.8%, while five-year expectations also rose to 3.3% —marking the sharpest level since June 2008.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Consumer Sentiment Little Changed, Inflation Fears Intensify</h3>



The overall consumer sentiment index dipped slightly to 73.2 in January, marginally missing economist forecasts of 73.8 and down from 74 in December. 



This minor decline is overshadowed by the sharp rise in inflation expectations.



&#8220;Consumer sentiment was essentially unchanged in January,&#8221; said Joanne Hsu, director of the University of Michigan&#8217;s Surveys of Consumers. 



She highlighted the alarming increase in inflation expectations across both the short and long term, noting that it was only the third time in four years that such a significant shift had occurred.



&#8220;For both the short and long run, inflation expectations rose across multiple demographic groups, with particularly strong increases among lower-income consumers and Independents,&#8221; Hsu said.



Despite concerns about inflation, the index for current economic conditions improved to 77.9 in January, the highest reading since April 2024 and up from 75.1 in December. This gain was offset by a drop in the consumer expectations index, which fell to 70.2, its lowest point since July 2024.



The broader economic implications of the report are troubling. 



Rising long-term inflation expectations suggest that consumers may believe the Federal Reserve will struggle to bring inflation back to its 2% target, potentially leading to entrenched pricing pressures across the economy.



One possible explanation, not addressed in the report, is that the January&#8217;s University of Michigan survey may already be capturing consumer concerns about the impact of the incoming Trump administration's planned tariff hikes, which could push up prices on goods and services.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Markets Extend Losses As Inflation Angst Grows</h3>



Wall Street reacted swiftly to the concerning data, with major indices extending Friday's selloff, which had already been fueled by a <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/01/42912480/us-economy-adds-256000-payrolls-in-december-as-tight-labor-market-tops-forecasts-dollar-treasury-yields-spike">surprisingly strong jobs report. </a>



The S&amp;P 500, tracked by the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>), fell 1.5% by 10:15 a.m. in New York trading to drop below the 5,800-point mark. The index has now erased all gains made during the post-election rally.



The Dow Jones Industrial Average also slipped 1.4%, touching its lowest levels since early November, while the Nasdaq 100, represented by the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>), plummeted 1.8%. Small-cap stocks, measured by the Russell 2000 index, tumbled 1.9%, hitting a three-month low.



Sector performance was broadly negative, with energy stocks being the sole exception. Rising crude oil prices, fueled by tightening U.S. sanctions on Russia, bolstered the sector. West Texas Intermediate crude –—as tracked by the United States Oil Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>) — surged over 4%, reaching $77 a barrel.



Gold, often seen as a safe haven during periods of uncertainty, gained 0.8% as investors sought protection against both inflationary pressures and growing geopolitical risks.



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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/01/42912208/delta-stock-jumps-after-record-q4-earnings-and-strong-2025-outlook">Delta Takes Flight As Q4 Earnings Beat Expectations, Fueled By Premium Travel Demand And Efficiency Gains</a></li>
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Photo via Shutterstock.

Consumer Inflation Worries Highest Since 2008, U Of M Survey Says: Wall Street Tumbles To 2-Month Lows

The U.S. Supreme Court heard oral arguments Friday in the case regarding legislation that could ban TikTok in the United States<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/social-media/24/12/42680367/tiktok-on-trial-supreme-court-prepares-to-weigh-national-security-risks"> in nine days.</a>



The Background: Last year, Congress passed a law requiring TikTok parent company ByteDance to sell TikTok or the app, which has about 170 million users in the U.S., will be banned in the United States. ByteDance filed a lawsuit to block the law and the case is now in <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/24/12/42712643/trump-asks-supreme-court-to-delay-tiktok-ban-as-he-pursues-a-political-resolution">the hands</a> of the Supreme Court. 



Read More: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/movers/25/01/42900817/quantum-stocks-regetti-computing-ionq-d-wave-poised-to-open-higher-after-nvidia-ceo-comments-drove-huge-losses">Quantum Stocks Regetti Computing, IonQ, D-Wave Poised To Open Higher After Nvidia CEO Comments Drove Huge Losses</a>



The Arguments: Noel Francisco, an attorney representing TikTok, opened the arguments by saying the law targets "speech itself" and that the court should temporarily halt the law "at a minimum."



&#8220;In short, this act should not stand,&#8221; Francisco said.



Chief Justice John Roberts questioned TikTok's ties to China and noted that Congress found that ByteDance cooperates with Chinese intelligence work and must comply with China&#8217;s laws.



&#8220;Are we supposed to ignore the fact that the ultimate parent is in fact subject to doing intelligence work for the Chinese government?&#8221; Roberts asked.



Justice Brett Kavanaugh defended national security concerns related to data collection through the TikTok app and asked what will occur on the Jan. 19 deadline if the High Court does not act. 



Francisco replied that TikTok will "go dark" and "essentially, the platform shuts down."&nbsp;



Francisco also acknowledged the possibility of a divestiture and potential intervention from President-elect Donald Trump



&#8220;Unless there&#8217;s a divestiture. Unless President Trump exercises his authority to extend it. But he can&#8217;t do that on Jan. 19. On Jan. 19, we still have President Biden, and on Jan. 19, as I understand it, we shut down,&#8221; Francisco said.



&#8220;It is possible that come Jan. 20, Jan. 21, 22nd, we might be in a different world. Again, that&#8217;s one of the reasons why that makes perfect sense to issue a preliminary injunction and buy everyone a little breathing space,&#8221; he added.&nbsp;



Oral arguments in the case remain ongoing at the time of publication.&nbsp;



Why It Matters: The case is viewed by many as a barometer for how the Supreme Court values issues of national security versus the constitutional right to free speech.&nbsp;



Critics of the TikTok law say that it violates the First Amendment, which guarantees freedom of speech, while proponents of the law say that TikTok could be pressured by the Chinese government to influence users through the spread of disinformation. Some also say that China could pressure ByteDance to turn over private user data generated through the TikTok app. 



The case could have implications for other social media platforms, including Snap, Inc.'s (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SNAP#NYSE">SNAP</a>) Snapchat and Facebook and Instagram parent Meta Platforms, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>) which could benefit from a ban of TikTok.&nbsp;



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Image: Shutterstock&nbsp;

Asia

Global

General

SNAP

Supreme Court Hears TikTok Arguments With App's Ban Ahead: 'Essentially, The Platform Shuts Down'

The December jobs report jolted financial markets during early Friday trading. Stronger-than-expected employment growth and a drop in the unemployment rate to 4.1% raised fears the Federal Reserve may hold off on cutting interest rates <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/econ-s">for most of 2025.</a>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">December Jobs Report Fuels Fed Hawkishness: Dollar Soars, Yields Jump </h3>



The U.S. economy added 256,000 new jobs last month, marking an acceleration from the downwardly revised 212,000 jobs added in November and sharply outpacing economist forecasts of 160,000, as tracked by TradingEconomics.



The December reading represented the strongest monthly job growth since March 2024, underscoring the continued resilience of the U.S. economy despite high interest rates and resurgent inflationary pressures.



The unemployment rate ticked down from 4.2%to 4.1% in November, defying expectations of no change. Wages rose broadly in line with expectations, with average hourly earnings increasing 0.3% month-over-month, slowing slightly from November&#8217;s 0.4%. On a year-over-year basis, wages climbed 3.9%, marginally below the 4% forecast.



Fed fund futures showed a steep decline in the probability of a March rate cut, with implied odds dropping to just 26%, down from 43% a day earlier, according to CME&#8216;s FedWatch tool.



Treasury yields rose sharply across the curve, reflecting a repricing of interest rate expectations. 



The two-year yield, closely tied to Federal Reserve policy expectations, jumped 11 basis points to 4.37%. The 10-year yield surged 10 basis points to 4.79%, its highest level since November 2023.



Notably, the most striking move came in the 30-year yield, which breached the 5% mark for the first time since October 2023. Before that, the last time 30-year yields surpassed this milestone was in August 2007. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) dropped 1.2% in premarket trading, highlighting the market's sensitivity to long-term rates.



The U.S. Dollar Index, tracked by the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>), surged 0.5% to 109.70, a level last seen in late October 2022. 



The greenback climbed 0.4% against the Japanese yen and 0.6% versus the euro, pushing the euro-dollar pair to a fresh 27-month low of 1.0250. The Sterling wasn&#8217;t spared, falling 0.7% to a 15-month low against the dollar.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Stocks Slump Across The Board</h3>



Futures on major U.S. indices were down 1% across the board, as the prospect of higher-for-longer interest rates rattled investors. All S&amp;P 500 sectors, except energy, traded in the negative premarket Friday.



Real estate, tracked by the Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLRE#NYSE">XLRE</a>), and technology, represented by the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLK#NYSE">XLK</a>), both sank 1.4%. 



Rate-sensitive sectors such as real estate and growth-heavy tech bore the brunt of the selloff as higher yields weighed on long-duration assets.



The one standout sector was energy, with the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLE#NYSE">XLE</a>) climbing 1.3%.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Major Premarket Movers</h3>



Among energy giants, Chevron Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CVX#NYSE">CVX</a>) gained 1.67% to $152.81, Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XOM#NYSE">XOM</a>) rose 1.57% to $108.61 and ConocoPhillips (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/COP#NYSE">COP</a>) advanced 1.43% to $103.07, benefiting from a 3% spike in oil prices after Reuters reported thet U.S. is mulling stronger sanctions on Russia&#8217;s oil sector.



In contrast, rate-sensitive mega-cap tech stocks dragged the market lower. 



Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>) fell 2.51% to $136.59, Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMD#NASDAQ">AMD</a>) dropped 2.92% to $118.28 and American International Group Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AIG#NYSE">AIG</a>) plunged 3.93% to $68.63, leading losses among financials.



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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/25/01/42901085/us-2025-recession-odds-plummet-good-news-or-warning-sign">US 2025 Recession Odds Plummet: Good News Or Warning Sign?</a></li>
</ul>



Photo via Shutterstock.

XLRE

Dollar Soars To 27-Month Highs, 30-Year Yields Hit 5%, Stocks Tumble As Jobs Report, Oil Spike Darken Fed's Interest Rate Cut Hopes

Delta Air Lines, Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DAL#NYSE">DAL</a>) shares are trading higher premarket after the company reported better-than-expected <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/pressreleases/25/01/n42908301/delta-air-lines-announces-december-quarter-and-full-year-2024-financial-results" rel="noreferrer noopener">fourth-quarter 2024 results</a>.



Delta reported fourth-quarter adj. operating revenue growth of 5.7% year-over-year to $14.437 billion. GAAP operating revenue was $15.56 billion (+9.4% YoY), beating the consensus of $14.212 billion.



Adjusted average fuel price was $2.34 per gallon, down from $3.00 from last year&#8217;s quarter. Adjusted EPS was $1.85 (+44.5% YoY), <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/earnings" rel="noreferrer noopener">beating the consensus of $1.76.</a>



Related: <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/travel/25/01/42899701/delta-q4-earnings-preview-can-bullish-trends-keep-the-stock-flying-high" rel="noreferrer noopener">Delta Q4 Earnings Preview: Can Bullish Trends Keep The Stock Flying High?</a>



Total passenger revenue for the quarter grew 5% year over year to $12.815 billion; cargo revenue grew 32% year over year to $249 million, and Other revenue was $2.495 billion (+34% year over year).



Delta recorded an adjusted operating income of $1.735 billion, up from $1.33 billion YoY, with an adjusted operating margin of 12%, up ~230 bps.



Adjusted operating expenses increased by 3% YoY to $12.702 billion, and Adjusted Non-fuel costs were $9.9 billion for the quarter.



Also Read: <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/01/42901060/delta-expands-premium-travel-experience-with-uber-youtube-and-joby-partnerships-unveiled-at-ces-2025" rel="noreferrer noopener">Delta Expands Premium Travel Experience with Uber, YouTube, and Joby Partnerships</a>



Delta generated an adjusted operating cash flow of $1.8 billion in the December quarter. Full-year adjusted operating cash flow reached $8.0 billion, with gross capital expenditures of $4.8 billion, resulting in $3.4 billion free cash flow for 2024.



Adjusted net debt at the December quarter-end decreased to $18 billion, a reduction of $3.6 billion from the end of 2023. Liquidity stood at $6.1 billion at year-end, including $3.1 billion in undrawn revolver capacity.



The passenger load factor was flat at 84%. DAL&#8217;s Air Traffic Liability ended the quarter at $7.1 billion.



&#8220;As we move into 2025, we expect strong demand for travel to continue, with consumers increasingly seeking the premium products and experiences that Delta provides. Our differentiated strategy and best-in-class operations, combined with demand strength and an increasingly constructive industry backdrop, position us to deliver the best financial year in Delta&#8217;s 100-year history, with pre-tax income greater than $6 billion, earnings per share greater than $7.35 and free cash flow of more than $4 billion,&#8221; commented Ed Bastian, Delta&#8217;s chief executive officer.



&#8220;As efficiency gains continue, we expect non-fuel unit cost growth to continue in the low-single digits for the full year 2025 as efficiencies offset the impact of slower capacity growth and continued investments in our people and the customer experience,&#8221; stated Dan Janki, Delta&#8217;s chief financial officer.



First Quarter 2025 Outlook (Non-GAAP): DAL&#8217;s total revenue is expected to grow 7% &#8211; 9% year-over-year with an operating margin of 6% &#8211; 8%. Earnings per share are forecasted between $0.70 and $1.00 versus the $0.77 estimate.



2025 Outlook: The company&#8217;s EPS is projected at greater than $7.35, reflecting 10%+ YoY growth and 19%+ on a non-GAAP basis.



Price Action: DAL shares are trading higher by 7.78% at $66.20 premarket at the last check Friday.



Read Next:



<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/market-summary/25/01/42908495/us-stocks-to-open-on-a-tentative-note-as-traders-remain-cautious-ahead-of-fridays-crucial-jobs-data" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">US Stocks To Open On A Tentative Note As Traders Remain Cautious Ahead Of Friday&#8217;s Crucial Jobs Data</a></li>
</ul>



Image via Shutterstock.

Guidance

Movers

Delta Takes Flight As Q4 Earnings Beat Expectations, Fueled By Premium Travel Demand And Efficiency Gains

<a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/semiconductors" rel="noreferrer noopener">Semiconductor chipmaker</a> Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSM#NYSE">TSM</a>) ended collaboration with Singapore&#8217;s PowerAIR after discovering a Taiwan Semiconductor chip&nbsp;in a Huawei Technologies artificial intelligence processor, SCMP <a target="_blank" href="https://www.scmp.com/tech/tech-war/article/3294199/tsmc-cuts-ties-singapore-firm-over-chip-found-huawei-processor-sources" rel="noreferrer noopener">reports</a>.



In 2024, the Taiwanese contract chipmaker <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/24/12/42644888/biden-administration-targets-chinese-firm-over-taiwan-semiconductor-chip-found-in-huawei-tech" rel="noreferrer noopener">suspended shipments to</a> China&#8217;s&nbsp;chip designing firm Sophgo after a chip it ordered from the Taiwanese chipmaker matched with one on Huawei&#8217;s Ascend 910B multi-chip system.



Washington imposed sanctions on Chinese smartphone giant Huawei in 2020, citing national security threats.



Also Read: <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/01/42882959/intel-partners-with-amazon-cloud-to-drive-next-gen-smart-vehicle-tech" rel="noreferrer noopener">Intel Partners with Amazon Cloud to Drive Next-Gen Smart Vehicle Tech, Wins Stellantis, Karma Auto As Clients</a>



The update coincides with reports indicating Nvidia and other chipmakers are susceptible to potential <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/regulations/25/01/42897081/nvidia-and-ai-chip-stocks-brace-for-impact-as-biden-administration-considers-new-china-export-ban-report" rel="noreferrer noopener">U.S. AI chip sanctions</a> to China. Washington&#8217;s new curbs could restrict Nvidia&#8217;s AI chip shipments, with three-tier export rules favoring allies like Taiwan and barring Tier 3 nations like China.



Taiwan Semiconductor stock surged over 105% in the last 12 months, gaining prominence by manufacturing AI chips for Nvidia Corp GPUs and chips for Apple Inc smartphones.



Taiwan Semiconductor reported <a href="https://pr.tsmc.com/english/news/3198" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">consolidated revenue of</a> 2.89 trillion New Taiwan dollars between January and December 2024 (up by 33.9% year-on-year). It reported a <a href="https://pr.tsmc.com/english/news/3177" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">consolidated revenue of</a> 2.03 trillion New Taiwan dollars between January and September 2024. 



Therefore, it implies that the chipmaker reported a consolidated revenue of 868.46 billion New Taiwan dollars ($26.3 billion versus a consensus of $26.2 billion) for the December quarter versus $19.62 billion a year ago.



The company expects <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/24/10/41373163/nvidia-supplier-tsmc-reports-q3-revenue-earnings-beat-amid-rising-demand-for-ai-chips" rel="noreferrer noopener">fourth-quarter revenue</a> of $26.1 billion &#8211; $26.9 billion.



Taiwan Semiconductor considered China the most significant revenue source after the U.S., as per the SCMP report. The chipmaker expected its China sales to grow by 26% in 2024 to $10.4 billion, accounting for 12% of its total revenue of $88.3 billion, SCMP cites Visible Alpha.



Investors can gain exposure to stocks of companies that manufacture semiconductors through the Invesco Semiconductors ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PSI#NYSE">PSI</a>) and ProShares UltraShort Semiconductors (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SSG#NYSE">SSG</a>).



Price Action: TSM stock is up 1.34% at $209.89 premarket at last check Friday.



Also Read:



<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/price-target/25/01/42881889/uber-nvidia-partnership-to-unlock-value-by-leveraging-ai-to-advance-ridesharing-autonomous-tech-analyst" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Uber, Nvidia Partnership To Unlock Value By Leveraging AI To Advance Ridesharing, Autonomous Tech: Analyst</a></li>
</ul>



Image via Shutterstock.

Media

Taiwan Semiconductor Hits $26.3 Billion Q4 Revenue, Reportedly Ends PowerAIR Deal Over Huawei Chip Breach Amid US Sanctions

The labor market ended 2024 on a strong note, adding 256,000 jobs in December, exceeding economist forecasts and showcasing once again the resilience <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/econ-s">of the U.S. economy. </a>



Nonfarm payrolls rose by 256,000 last month, up from the downwardly revised 212,000 in November and sharply surpassing economist expectations of 160,000 payrolls as tracked by TradingEconomics.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">US Labor Market Defies Gravity, Unemployment Rate Falls</h3>



The December payroll figure released Friday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics surprised to the upside for the second consecutive month, signaling the U.S. labor market&#8217;s strength continues to defy gravity. The outcome marks the strongest employment growth since March 2024.



The unemployment rate fell from 4.2% to 4.1%, beating forecasts of an unchanged reading.



Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% month-over-month in December, matching expectations but slowing from November&#8217;s 0.4%. On a year-over-year basis, wages increased 3.9%, slightly below of the 4% forecast. 



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Key Sectors Driving Employment Gains</h3>



Employment growth in December was led by gains in health care, retail trade and government, while leisure and hospitality showed minimal change.



Health care added 46,000 jobs, continuing its consistent upward trajectory, while retail trade recovered from a loss of 29,000 jobs in November, posting a gain of 43,000 jobs in December. 



Government employment was also robust, adding 33,000 positions last month. Social assistance contributed an additional 23,000 jobs, reflecting steady demand in support services.



Employment in leisure and hospitality showed little movement, with a modest increase of 43,000 jobs.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Market Reactions</h3>



The stronger-than-expected jobs report complicates the Federal Reserve&#8217;s path forward. 



While the labor market&#8217;s resilience signals robust economic growth for the fourth quarter, it forces policymakers to remain laser-focused on their inflation mandate, as recent price pressures have resurfaced, likely supporting a hawkish stance in the months ahead.



Yields on two-year Treasury bonds — which are highly susceptible to interest rate expectations — spiked by 11 basis points to 4.38%, reflecting fears that the Fed might push monetary easing further down the road in 2025.



The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which is tracked by the&nbsp;Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>), rallied by 0.3% in the minutes after the release. 



Markets reacted with caution. Futures tied to the S&amp;P 500 showed a 0.6% loss in Friday&#8217;s premarket trading. 



Read Next: 



<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/market-summary/25/01/42908495/us-stocks-to-open-on-a-tentative-note-as-traders-remain-cautious-ahead-of-fridays-crucial-jobs-data">US Stocks To Open On A Tentative Note As Traders Remain Cautious Ahead Of Friday&#8217;s Crucial Jobs Data</a></li>
</ul>



Photo via Shutterstock.

Currency ETFs

US Economy Adds 256,000 Payrolls In December, Tight Labor Market Tops Forecasts: Dollar, Treasury Yields Spike

U.S. stock futures declined on Friday ahead of the crucial U.S. <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/25/01/42905396/us-may-add-fewer-jobs-in-december-with-an-unchanged-unemployment-rate-predict-economists">jobs data</a> report after a mixed close in the previous session. Futures of all four major indices fell in premarket trade.



Traders were cautious on Friday morning as <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/25/01/42905396/us-may-add-fewer-jobs-in-december-with-an-unchanged-unemployment-rate-predict-economists">economists</a> expect December's non-farm payrolls to soften as compared to November in Friday's official monthly jobs report. The unemployment rate is projected to hold steady at 4.2%.



The stock markets ended mixed on Wednesday followed by a break on Thursday in the remembrance of former President Jimmy Carter.



The 10-year and two-year Treasury notes yielded 4.70% and 4.29%, respectively. The probability of having no change in the interest rates for the upcoming Jan. 31, 2025, FOMC meeting was at 95.2%, <a href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html">according to</a> CME Group&#8217;s FedWatch tool.



<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"><table><tbody><tr><td>Futures</td><td>Change (+/-)</td></tr><tr><td>Nasdaq 100</td><td>-0.03%</td></tr><tr><td>S&amp;P 500</td><td>-0.08%</td></tr><tr><td>Dow Jones</td><td>-0.01%</td></tr><tr><td>Russell 2000</td><td>-0.17%</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



In premarket trading on Friday, the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) was down 0.03% to $589.31, and the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>) was down 0.058% to $514.97, according to <a href="https://pro.benzinga.com/dashboard">Benzinga Pro</a> data.



Cues From The Last Session



U.S. stock markets closed <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/25/01/42906229/dow-surges-over-100-points-following-fed-minutes-investor-sentiment-declines-greed-index-remains-in-fear-zone">mixed</a> on Wednesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average gaining over 100 points. The Federal Reserve&#8217;s latest meeting minutes revealed uncertainty among policymakers regarding future interest rate cuts. The incoming administration&#8217;s policies and their potential impact on inflation remain unclear. 



Acuity Brands Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AYI#NYSE">AYI</a>), a leading lighting solutions provider, reported weaker-than-expected revenue for the first quarter of its fiscal year.



On the economic data front, U.S. private companies added 122,000 jobs in December, lower than November&#8217;s figure and below market expectations. Initial jobless claims decreased to an 11-month low, suggesting a tightening labor market.



Most sectors in the S&amp;P 500 Index closed higher, with consumer staples, healthcare, and materials sectors leading the gains. However, the energy and communication services sectors experienced declines.



The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 0.25% higher at 42,635.20, up approximately 107 points. The S&amp;P 500 Index rose 0.16% to 5,918.25, while the Nasdaq Composite dipped 0.055% to 19,478.88. Russell 200, on the other hand, fell 0.48% to 2,238.96.



<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"><table><tbody><tr><td>Index</td><td>Performance (+/-)</td><td>Value</td></tr><tr><td>Nasdaq Composite</td><td>-0.055%</td><td>19,478.88</td></tr><tr><td>S&amp;P 500</td><td>0.16%</td><td>5,918.25</td></tr><tr><td>Dow Jones</td><td>0.25%</td><td>42,635.20</td></tr><tr><td>Russell 2000</td><td>-0.48%</td><td>2,238.96</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



Insights From Analysts



TradingEconomics <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/25/01/42905396/us-may-add-fewer-jobs-in-december-with-an-unchanged-unemployment-rate-predict-economists">compiled</a> economist consensus expects nonfarm payrolls to show a net gain of 154,000 jobs in December, down sharply from the 227,000 added in November. On the other hand, Bloomberg's consensus estimate stands at 165,000 jobs.



However, December's job report will be "the first clean monthly employment report after October," said&nbsp;Ed Yardeni&nbsp;and&nbsp;Eric Wallerstein&nbsp;in their weekly economic report, adding that October witnessed hurricanes and strikes, and November's jobs were boosted because of the returning workers.



Yardeni Research also anticipates further hiring under the Trump administration due to potential policy changes and increased economic certainty.



A <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/01/42881085/is-labor-market-cooling-or-raising-fed-concerns-what-to-watch-in-fridays-jobs-report">weaker-than-expected jobs report</a> on Friday could boost U.S. stocks, weaken the dollar, and lower government bond yields, as investors might see it as an indication that the Fed has room to ease monetary policy. &#8211;



Conversely, stronger-than-expected job growth or a lower unemployment rate could raise concerns about a robust labor market, potentially delaying the Fed&#8217;s timeline for easing.



&#8220;The recent string of strong economic data can keep pushing back the timing of the next Fed rate cut,&#8221; said Collin Martin, director, of fixed income strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research. &#8220;The Fed funds futures market is not pricing in the next cut until July, and if inflation remains as sticky as it has lately, it seems likely that the Fed could skip cutting rates at a number of meetings.&#8221;



Drawing a parallel between a strong U.S. dollar and equity performance, Louis Navellier of Navellier &amp; Associates said that a stronger greenback &#8220;impedes the sales in the multi-international stocks&#8221; in the S&amp;P 500 and most such stocks have at least half of their revenue coming from outside U.S.



&#8220;As a result, domestic stocks tend to prosper during a strong U.S. dollar environment, especially small-to-mid capitalization companies,&#8221; he added.



See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/money/how-to-trade-futures">How to Trade Futures</a> 



Upcoming Economic Data



<ul>
<li>On Friday, the U.S. employment report, unemployment rate, and hourly wages data for December along with hourly wages year over year will be released at 8:30 a.m., ET.</li>
</ul>



<ul>
<li>The preliminary consumer sentiment data for January will be announced at 10:00 a.m., ET.</li>
</ul>



Stocks In Focus:



<ul>
<li>Delta Air Lines Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DAL#NYSE">DAL</a>) was up 3.37% in the premarket on Friday. Wall Street is expecting it to report quarterly earnings of $1.76 per share on revenue of $14.21 billion before the opening bell, according to data from <a href="https://www.benzinga.com">Benzinga Pro</a>.</li>
</ul>



<ul>
<li>TD Synnex Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SNX#NYSE">SNX</a>) was marginally up by 0.07% as analysts expect it to post quarterly earnings at $3.05 per share on revenue of $15.22 billion. The company will release earnings before the markets open.</li>
</ul>



<ul>
<li>Constellation Brands Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/STZ#NYSE">STZ</a>) was marginally down by 0.50% as it will be reporting its earnings before the opening bell. Analysts project quarterly earnings of $3.31 per share on revenue of $2.53 billion.</li>
</ul>



<ul>
<li>Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/WBA#NASDAQ">WBA</a>) was also up 0.33% ahead of its earnings before the opening bell. Analysts expect quarterly earnings of 37 cents per share on revenue of $37.28 billion.</li>
</ul>



<ul>
<li>Costco Wholesale Corp. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/COST#NASDAQ">COST</a>) was up 2.44% after it posed a 9.9% jump in its core comparable sales excluding forex and gas price changes for the five weeks ended Jan. 5, 2025.</li>
</ul>



<ul>
<li>Vision Marine Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VMAR#NASDAQ">VMAR</a>) was up 114.47% as it regained compliance with Nasdaq&#8217;s minimum stockholders&#8217; equity requirement, which it previously failed to meet.</li>
</ul>



<ul>
<li>IGM Biosciences Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IGMS#NASDAQ">IGMS</a>) was down 68.55% as it announced in a regulatory filing that it is reducing its workforce by 73% to preserve cash.</li>
</ul>



Commodities, Gold And Global Equity Markets:



Crude oil futures were higher in the early New York session by 2.52% to hover around $75.78 per barrel.



The gold spot index was up by 0.68% to $2,709.19 per ounce. The Dollar Index was at 109.184 level.



Asian markets closed lower on Friday as Hong Kong&#8217;s Hang Seng, Japan&#8217;s Nikkei 225, India&#8217;s S&amp;P BSE Sensex, China&#8217;s CSI 300, Australia&#8217;s ASX 200, and South Korea&#8217;s Kospi index declined. European markets were mixed.



Read Next:



<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/01/42906089/california-wildfires-ignite-concerns-for-insurance-stocks-here-are-some-insurance-etfs-which-could-be-impacted">California Wildfires Ignite Concerns For Insurance Stocks: Here Are Some Insurance ETFs Which Could Be Impacted</a></li>
</ul>



Photo courtesy: Wikimedia

Macro Notification

Market Summary

Futures

Pre-Market Outlook

Analyst Ratings

COST

IGMS

VMAR

US Stocks To Open On A Tentative Note As Traders Remain Cautious Ahead Of Friday's Crucial Jobs Data

Leading cryptocurrencies mounted losses on Thursday as investors remained cautious ahead of the release of a crucial jobs report



<figure class="wp-block-table"><table><tbody><tr><td>Cryptocurrency</td><td>Gains +/-</td><td>Price (Recorded at 7:30 p.m. ET)</td></tr><tr><td>Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>)</td><td>-2.54%</td><td>$92,600.34</td></tr><tr><td>Ethereum (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/eth/usd">ETH</a>) &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</td><td>-3.22%</td><td>$3,220.17</td></tr><tr><td>Dogecoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/doge/usd">DOGE</a>)&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</td><td>-5.10%</td><td>$0.3237</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



What Happened: Bitcoin fell to an intraday low of $91,220 late afternoon before recouping some losses by evening. The leading cryptocurrency has declined nearly 10% since the highs of $102,000 earlier in the week.



The report of the Justice Department <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/25/01/42890745/us-government-granted-[%E2%80%A6]date-65-billion-in-bitcoin-seized-from-silk-road-case-report">getting approval to sell $6.5 billion in Bitcoin </a>and on-chain movements created panic in the market, although it was yet to be confirmed the sale happened.



The extended slump triggered a fresh wave of liquidations, with nearly $285 million in upside bets getting evaporated in the last 24 hours.



That said, more than 68% of traders on Binance were betting on Bitcoin's rebound, according to the Long/Short ratio.



A reversal to $100,000 will liquidate nearly $780 million in short positions.



The market sentiment slipped into the "Neutral" zone from "Greed," according to the Crypto Fear &amp; Greed Index, as traders lowered risk appetite.



Top Gainers (24-Hours)



<figure class="wp-block-table"><table><tbody><tr><td>Cryptocurrency</td><td>Gains +/-</td><td>Price (Recorded at 7:30 p.m. ET)</td></tr><tr><td>BitTorrent New (BT)</td><td>+3.68%</td><td>$0.000001168</td></tr><tr><td>Kaia (KAIA)</td><td>+3.19%</td><td>$0.2108</td></tr><tr><td>Litecoin (LTC)</td><td>+1.48%</td><td>$102.64</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



The global cryptocurrency market capitalization stood at $3.23 trillion, falling by 2.54% in the last 24 hours.



Stock futures slipped in overnight trading. The Dow Jones Industrial Average Futures fell 183 points, or 0.43%, as of 7:44 p.m. EDT.&nbsp; Futures tied to the S&amp;P 500 dropped 0.58%, while Nasdaq 100 Futures lost 0.73%.



Investors were gearing up for the <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/01/42881085/is-labor-market-cooling-or-raising-fed-concerns-what-to-watch-in-fridays-jobs-report">December jobs report</a>, due on Friday, to determine the Federal Reserve's next moves on monetary policy.



The New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq were closed on Thursday in observance of a National Day of Mourning for former President Jimmy Carter. Markets will resume trading on Friday.



See More: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/money/best-crypto-scanners">Best Cryptocurrency Scanners</a>



Analyst Notes: Popular blockchain analytics firm CryptoQuant stated that Bitcoin was yet to reach a cycle top, according to analysis of the Market Value to Realized Value indicator.



"MVRV metric reached the value of 3 at the market tops in the past two cycles, whereas it currently stands at 2.14… it can be said that Bitcoin is preparing to move towards the top price of this cycle," CryptoQuant added.



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">100-day moving average of MVRV: Bitcoin has not yet reached the top price of this cycle "MVRV metric reached the value of 3 at the market tops in the past two cycles, whereas it currently stands at 2.14… it can be said that Bitcoin is preparing to move towards the top price of… <a href="https://t.co/YlNLQwgE3w">pic.twitter.com/YlNLQwgE3w</a>&mdash; CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) <a href="https://twitter.com/cryptoquant_com/status/1877346597501022612?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 9, 2025</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



Michaël van de Poppe, another widely followed cryptocurrency analyst, noted that the altcoin season was yet to begin, citing the Altcoin Season Index.



"However, as the number drops sub 50, it provides a tremendous opportunity to accumulate your altcoins," Van De Poppe added. "It&#8217;s bull market year."



At the time of the X post, the indicator showed a reading of 47.



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">Altseason indicator says: It&#39;s not an altseason! However, as the number drops sub 50, it provides a tremendous opportunity to accumulate your <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Altcoins?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Altcoins</a>. It&#39;s bull market year. <a href="https://t.co/BfXm4pyzeW">pic.twitter.com/BfXm4pyzeW</a>&mdash; Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) <a href="https://twitter.com/CryptoMichNL/status/1877432402034725084?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 9, 2025</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
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Photo by Igor Faun on Shutterstock



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$DOGE

$ETH

Bitcoin, Ethereum, Dogecoin Slip Ahead Of Key Jobs Data Release: Top Analyst Remains Positive On 2025 — 'It's Bull Market Year'

Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>) investor Gary Black cautioned against setting unrealistic expectations for the company&#8217;s Optimus robot program on Thursday, sparking debate about the electric vehicle maker&#8217;s valuation metrics and growth prospects.



What Happened: Black, managing partner of The Future Fund LLC, calculated that Tesla&#8217;s planned production of 500,000 Optimus robots by 2027 would add approximately $0.70 to earnings per share, assuming a $30,000 average selling price and 20% gross margin. This would supplement his projected core EPS of $7.70 for that year.



The analysis drew pushback from Dave Lee, host of Dave Lee on Investing, who argued that successful Optimus deployment would dramatically increase Tesla&#8217;s price-to-earnings multiple due to growth potential rather than just incremental earnings.



Black defended his conservative stance, pointing to Tesla&#8217;s recent market performance. &#8220;TSLA has underperformed for the past three years because expectations were too high,&#8221; Black wrote on X, noting that Tesla shares gained 12% compared to the Nasdaq 100&#8217;s 36% rise during that period.



&#8220;Every time I try to right-size expectations, I get pounded on by TSLA uberbulls for being too cautious, when in reality even my forecasts have been too bullish over the past three years,&#8221; Black wrote. 



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">One can clearly see this in TSLA FY'25 and FY'26 earnings estimates, which have come down -39% and -45% over the past 12 months, as the market figured out TSLA's long-term projection of 50% compounded volume growth was too high. Every time I try to right-size expectations, I get… <a href="https://t.co/YkURbaUHnS">pic.twitter.com/YkURbaUHnS</a>&mdash; Gary Black (@garyblack00) <a href="https://twitter.com/garyblack00/status/1877456270455878128?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 9, 2025</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
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See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/01/42902354/betting-markets-see-strong-jobs-growth-yet-goldman-sachs-forecasts-a-slowdown-how-can-traders-profit">Betting Markets See Strong Jobs Growth, Yet Goldman Sachs Forecasts A Slowdown: How Can Traders Profit?</a>



Why It Matters: The debate follows CEO Elon Musk&#8216;s announcement that Tesla aims to produce <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/07/39880470/elon-musk-pushes-back-optimus-timeline-says-teslas-humanoid-robot-will-hopefully-be-available-for-ot">several thousand Optimus robots in 2025</a>, scaling to 50,000-100,000 units in 2026 and potentially 500,000 in 2027.



Bank of America analyst John Murphy recently valued Tesla&#8217;s Optimus segment between $14 billion and $95 billion in his sum-of-parts analysis, representing just 2% of Tesla&#8217;s total estimated value. Murphy sees greater potential in Tesla&#8217;s robotaxi and Full Self-Driving capabilities, which he estimates could comprise <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/25/01/42856115/tesla-analyst-on-high-stakes-future-optimus-robotaxi-fsd-have-potential-but-execution-risks-loom">over 75% of the company&#8217;s future value</a>.



&#8220;If investors want TSLA stock to stop underperforming, they need to stop pressuring analysts to push estimates ever higher,&#8221; Black emphasized, citing that Tesla&#8217;s fiscal 2025 and 2026 earnings estimates have declined by 39% and 45% respectively over the past year.



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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/startups/25/01/42903410/regulatory-woes-subscriber-declines-falling-oil-prices-were-buying-buffett-bets-big-on-563m-worth-of-underdogs">&#8216;Regulatory Woes? Subscriber Declines? Falling Oil Prices? We&#8217;re Buying!&#8217; Buffett Bets Big On $563M Worth Of Underdogs</a></li>
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Image Via Shutterstock 



Disclaimer:&nbsp;This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.

Tesla Bull Gary Black Warns Against Inflated Optimus Robot Assumptions: Get Pounded Each Time 'I Try To Right-Size Expectations'

Alphabet Inc&#8217;s (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOGL#NASDAQ">GOOGL</a>) (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>) search engine arm Google and aerospace leader Boeing Co. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BA#NYSE">BA</a>) have each pledged a donation of $1 million to the inaugural committee of President-elect Trump. This move aligns them with other prominent corporations in supporting the forthcoming inauguration event on Jan. 20.



What Happened: Both Google and Boeing validated their respective $1 million donations to the inaugural committee, <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5077817-google-boeing-donate-trump-inauguration/">reported</a> The Hill. 



Karan Bhatia, Google's global head of government affairs and public policy, expressed, &#8220;Google is pleased to support the 2025 inauguration, with a livestream on YouTube and a direct link on our homepage. We're also donating to the inaugural committee.&#8221;



Boeing also confirmed its contribution, stating, &#8220;We&nbsp;are pleased to continue Boeing's&nbsp;bipartisan tradition of supporting U.S.&nbsp;Presidential Inaugural Committees.&#8221; The company has a history of backing past presidential inaugural committees.



Other corporations, such as Meta, Amazon, and Uber, have also contributed to Trump&#8217;s inaugural fund. Toyota and Ford have each donated $1 million. Several top executives, including Google&#8217;s Sundar Pichai and Amazon&#8217;s Jeff Bezos, have met with the President-elect at his Florida residence, Mar-a-Lago.



These meetings and contributions suggest a shift among some corporations aiming to establish a stronger relationship with the incoming President as he prepares to take office later this month.



See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cannabis/25/01/42901026/jimmy-carters-funeral-5-living-presidents-attend-family-colleagues-share-warm-humorous-stories">Jimmy Carter&#8217;s Funeral: 5 Living Presidents Attend; Family, Colleagues Share Warm, Humorous Stories</a>



Why It Matters: This recent wave of corporate support for the incoming administration is not without precedent. As reported by Benzinga in December, Amazon&#8217;s Bezos <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/tech/24/12/42479253/jeff-bezos-amazon-pledges-1-million-to-trumps-inaugural-event-following-in-the-footsteps-of-mark-zuckerberg-and-meta">pledged $1 million</a> to the inaugural event, following Meta&#8217;s similar contribution. 



Additionally, <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/management/24/12/42485193/sam-altman-to-donate-1m-to-trumps-inauguration-fund-following-zuckerberg-bezos-eager-to-support">Sam Altman</a>, CEO of OpenAI, announced his $1 million donation, citing support for Trump&#8217;s efforts to advance the U.S. in the artificial intelligence sector.



Earlier this month, Apple&#8217;s CEO Tim Cook also reportedly donated $1 million to the inauguration, viewing it as an <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/management/24/12/42485193/sam-altman-to-donate-1m-to-trumps-inauguration-fund-following-zuckerberg-bezos-eager-to-support">important American tradition</a> and a gesture of unity. These donations reflect a broader trend of tech and corporate leaders seeking to foster a positive relationship with the incoming administration.



Image via Shutterstock



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This story was generated using <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/author/benzinga-neuro">Benzinga Neuro</a> and edited by <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/author/shivdeep-dhaliwal" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Shivdeep Dhaliwal</a>

GOOG

GOOGL

Google And Boeing Contribute $1M Each To Trump's Inauguration Fund: YouTube To Livestream Event

Betting markets see December&#8217;s nonfarm payrolls coming in much higher than Wall Street economists expect, creating a stark divide between traders betting on strong labor data and forecasts predicting <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/01/42881085/is-labor-market-cooling-or-raising-fed-concerns-what-to-watch-in-fridays-jobs-report">a slowdown in hiring.</a>



In a note shared Thursday, Goldman Sachs economist Ronnie Walker estimated that nonfarm payrolls grew by just 125,000 in December, significantly below the consensus forecasts. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the official jobs report Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET.



<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Betting Markets Signal Optimism</h1>



Data from CFTC-regulated betting platform Kalshi paints a far rosier picture of the December jobs market.



Implied odds derived from wagers suggest nonfarm payrolls could climb by 187,000 in December 2024. 



As of Thursday afternoon, traders betting on a jobs number above 150,000 had a 70% implied chance of winning, with an even 40% chance assigned to a print over 200,000. 



On the flip side, bets against payroll growth exceeding 150,000 offered a payout of $3 for every $1 wagered, while betting on a particularly weak figure — below 100,000 — provided an 11-to-1 payout.



This divergence highlights the potential for traders to profit handsomely if the labor report skews toward a weak payroll number. 


<iframe loading="lazy" style="border: 0;" src="https://kalshi.com/external-widgets/events/KXPAYROLLS-24DEC?color_scheme=light&amp;widget_size=large&amp;utm_campaign=benzingawidget" width="552px" height="400px"></iframe>


<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Wall Street Predicts A Slower Jobs Market</h1>



While betting markets exude confidence in the labor market, Wall Street economists are taking a more cautious stance. 



Trading Economics places the consensus estimate at 160,000 jobs, a marked slowdown from November&#8217;s robust gain of 227,000.



Goldman Sachs&#8217; projection of 125,000 jobs would represent a reduction from the three-month average of 174,000. 



Goldman also expects the unemployment rate to edge up to 4.3%, slightly above the consensus of 4.2%.



Walker attributed his conservative forecast to several factors, including &#8220;middling household employment growth,&#8221; &#8220;more challenging job-finding prospects&#8221; and &#8220;a rebound in the labor force participation rate.&#8221;



Goldman also anticipates average hourly earnings to rise just 0.3% month-over-month, leaving annual wage growth at 4.0%.



<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Seasonal Distortions At Play</h1>



Seasonal trends tied to the timing of Thanksgiving and Black Friday may play a significant role in December's payroll data. 



Walker highlighted that the late holiday shopping season this year likely weakened November&#8217;s retail hiring, with some of that hiring activity spilling into December.



Yet, Goldman expects these gains to be more than offset by slower job growth in other sectors. 



&#8220;We expect deceleration in job growth in non-retail sectors, particularly professional services and construction,&#8221; Walker said, adding that seasonal distortions could reduce payroll growth by as much as 50,000 jobs.



<h1 class="wp-block-heading">A Wager On Market Surprise</h1>



The chasm between betting odds and Wall Street forecasts suggests that traders are banking on the U.S. economy's resilience amid mounting headwinds.



For investors, a stronger-than-expected payroll report could reignite concerns about inflation, putting further upward pressure on Treasury yields and forcing the Federal Reserve to maintain a hawkish stance on interest rates. 



Conversely, a disappointing print could signal a slowdown in economic momentum, potentially easing pressure on the central bank.



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Photo: Shutterstock

Betting Markets Project Strong Jobs Growth, Goldman Sachs Forecasts Slowdown: How Can Traders Profit?

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