ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil (ARCA: UCO)

에 대한 최신 뉴스 ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil (ARCA:UCO)

The index aims to track the performance of 3 separate contract schedules for WTI Crude Oil futures. One-third of the index follows a monthly roll schedule two months beyond the nearby contract. The second third of the index follows a June annual roll schedule, while the remaining third follows a December annual roll schedule. The index is not linked to the spot price of WTI crude oil.

ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil

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지난 주말 OPEC+의 원유 생산 쿼터 증산 결정 이후 에너지 ETF가 다시 주목받고 있다. 일부는 긍정적인 분위기를 타고, 일부는 지정학적 불확실성에 대비해 투자하고 있다.미국과 영국의 무역 관계 개선과 미중 관세 전쟁 해결 가능성으로 유가가 급등하면서 원유 선물 및 에너지 주식을 추종하는 ETF의 거래량과 변동성이 증가했다.

OPEC+ 증산 결정, 미영 무역 협정, 미중 무역 회담 예정···원유 ETF 상승세

Chevron: Energy Sector Resilience

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주요 석유 회사인 엑손모빌(NYSE:XOM), 쉐브론(NYSE:CVX), 쉘(NYSE:SHEL)은 한때 적은 자산으로 초고속 성장하는 거대 기술 기업들과 대척점에 있었지만, 이제는 거대 기술 기업을 대상으로 가치를 창출하는 것을 목표로 하고 있다. 

에너지 기업 엑손모빌·쉐브론·쉘, AI 성장 지원에 집중

Oil Price Photo by William Potter on Shutterstock

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국제에너지기구(IEA)는 2025년 세계 석유 수요 전망을 소폭 수정해 이전에 예상했던 일일 110만 배럴에서 105만 배럴로 감소할 것으로 전망했다. 새로운 전망은 경제 상황 개선과 연료 가격 하락을 반영하면서 전 세계 수요를 일평균 1억 4천만 배럴로 예상한다.

2025년 석유 수요 전망: OPEC의 낙관론 vs. IEA의 보수적 예측

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In the wake of <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/opec">OPEC+&#8217;s weekend decision</a> to increase oil production quotas, <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs">energy ETFs are back</a> in the spotlight—some surfing the wave of positive sentiment, others protecting against geopolitical uncertainty. As oil prices surged on the U.S.-UK trade relations and potential resolutions to the U.S.-China tariff war, ETFs tracking oil futures and energy stocks have experienced rising volume and volatility.
Also Read: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/04/44799117/us-iran-talks-fuel-oil-rally-here-are-5-energy-etfs-in-the-radar">US-Iran Talks Fuel Oil Rally: Here Are 3 Energy ETFs In The Radar</a>
<ol>
<li>United States Oil Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>) The USO is perhaps the most direct play on crude oil prices. It tracks daily price movements of WTI futures. In the past week, USO has climbed in tandem with WTI's 3%+ rally, and daily trading volumes have surged. But with its exposure to short-term futures, the fund is vulnerable to contango risk, a drag on costs that can cut into returns when longer-dated futures are trading at a premium to near-term contracts. Investors are keen to observe whether the OPEC+ production increase smoothes the front of the curve, lowering the drag. </li>
<li>SPDR S&amp;P Oil &amp; Gas Exploration &amp; Production ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XOP#NYSE">XOP</a>) The XOP ETF provides exposure to a basket of upstream energy companies—those that drill, explore, and produce. With CNX Resources (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CNX#NYSE">CNX</a>) and Exxon Mobil Corp (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XOM#NYSE">XOM</a>) among its holdings, XOP is prone to magnifying the effect of oil price volatility. The ETF advanced more than 3% following the trade deal and production news. That&#8217;s a sign of investor optimism. Exploration companies could gain from stabilized demand and more transparent global trade flows. </li>
<li>ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UCO#NYSE">UCO</a>) For the adventurous, UCO offers 2x leveraged exposure to WTI futures&#8217; daily performance. It&#8217;s become popular with short-term speculators attempting to catch news events, such as the OPEC+ output boost or US-Iran nuclear talks. While potentially profitable in robust upswings, UCO can be brutal in reversals, and thus a weapon best reserved for experienced traders. The fund advanced more than 5% on Thursday following the US-UK trade deal.</li>
</ol>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">What&#8217;s Going On Today On The Oil Front?</h2>
As the market prices in the possibility of looser supply conditions from OPEC+ and stronger global trade relationships, oil ETFs sit in the middle of this macroeconomic tug-of-war.
OPEC+ said at the weekend it will raise its oil production quotas, speeding the rollback of previous supply cuts as part of its continuing strategy to balance market recovery with geopolitical necessities. The step, which occurs after April production slipped by a small margin due to stoppages in Venezuela, Iraq, and Libya, as discovered by a Reuters Survey, is a measure of the group&#8217;s faith in the resilience of demand as the trade environment looks up. 
In the meantime, wider macroeconomic mood has been given a significant boost by renewed momentum in global trade diplomacy. The<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/05/45293839/trump-starmer-strike-us-uk-trade-deal-steel-cars-beef"> just-announced U.S.-UK trade deal</a>, touted by President Trump as a &#8220;breakthrough,&#8221; is set to cut tariffs on major goods—including a major cut on UK car exports and complete removal of duties on steel and aluminum. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer described the agreement as a &#8220;catalyst for deeper bilateral trade,&#8221; while U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick put new opportunities for American exporters at $5 billion. The good news precedes a high-stakes meeting between <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/05/45290148/oil-bulls-eye-rebound-as-us-china-talks-spark-hope-yardeni">U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and China&#8217;s highest-ranking economic official</a> on May 10 in Switzerland to work out long-standing trade tensions. Collectively, these negotiations are sparking hope that a de-escalation of tariff wars can rekindle world demand, specifically for energy-intensive industries, offering a backstop of support for oil prices and commodity-linked ETFs.
While Citi Research trimmed Brent forecasts to $55 for the next three months, the firm maintained that price levels will stabilize later this year at around $60 per barrel, according to another Reuters report. That is good news for energy-themed ETFs, particularly those with less exposure to futures roll costs and more diversification throughout the oil value chain.
Read Next: 
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs/specialty-etfs/25/05/45297474/imtm-etf-tanks-then-soars-why-global-momentum-is-making-a-comeback">IMTM ETF Tanks, Then Soars: Why Global Momentum Is Making A Comeback</a></li>
</ul>

Oil ETFs Heat Up As OPEC+ Pump-Up, US-UK Trade Deal, China Talks Fuel Rally

The Trump administration is exploring a strategy to halt and examine Iranian oil tankers at sea as part of an international agreement aimed at curbing the spread of <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/02/43480859/trump-confirms-maximum-economic-pressure-on-iran-calls-chinas-tariff-retaliation-fine">weapons of mass destruction</a>.
What Happened: According to Reuters, Trump officials are considering enabling allied nations to stop and inspect vessels passing through critical maritime routes such as Asia's Malacca Strait.
Such actions could delay crude deliveries to refiners and potentially damage the reputations of those involved in facilitating these trades.
The administration is evaluating whether these sea inspections could be conducted under the Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI), a U.S.-led program launched in 2003 with the participation of over 100 countries to prevent the movement of weapons of mass destruction. 
See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/03/44157043/jim-cramer-doubles-down-on-crowdstrike-despite-drop-analysts-who-were-so-negativehad-it-wrong">Jim Cramer Doubles Down On CrowdStrike Despite Drop: &#8216;Analysts Who Were So Negative…Had It Wrong&#8217;</a>
Why It Matters: Opponents of Tehran's oil revenue say it supports nuclear proliferation as well as terrorism.
However, past attempts to seize Iranian oil have sparked retaliation from Tehran. In 2023, Iran seized foreign ships—one chartered by Chevron (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CVX#NYSE">CVX</a>)—after the U.S. attempted to intercept Iranian oil cargoes.
&#8220;You don't have to sink ships or arrest people to have that chilling effect that this is just not worth the risk,&#8221; said one source, emphasizing that delivery delays could sow uncertainty in illicit trade networks. 
Analysts warn that the longer sanctions remain in place, the more Iran and its oil buyers will find ways to circumvent them.
With Iran's oil revenues largely tied to exports to China, any prolonged disruption could have significant economic impacts. 
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">ETFs To Watch</h2>
During pre-market hours on Thursday, <a href="https://pro.benzinga.com">Benzinga Pro</a> showed: 
<ul>
<li>ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UCO#NYSE">UCO</a>) fell by 0.17%,</li>
<li>United States Oil Fund LP (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>) dropped 2.58%,</li>
<li>SPDR S&amp;P Oil &amp; Gas Exploration &amp; Production ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XOP#NYSE">XOP</a>) decreased by 0.39%, and</li>
<li>MicroSectorsTM Oil &amp; Gas Exploration &amp; Production 3X Leveraged ETNs (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/OILU#NYSE">OILU</a>) saw a 0.28% drop,</li>
</ul>
Now Read:
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/forex/25/03/44161314/us-stocks-likely-to-open-lower-after-wednesdays-blip-be-patient-but-be-ready-to-act-says-analyst-as-market-uncertainties-can-create-opportunities">US Stocks Likely To Open Lower After Wednesday&#8217;s Blip: &#8216;Be Patient, But Be Ready To Act,&#8217; Says Analyst As Market Uncertainties Can Create &#8216;Opportunities&#8217;</a></li>
</ul>
Image: Shutterstock

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OILU

Trump Administration Weighs Sea Inspections Of Iranian Oil Tankers

President Donald Trump, while hosting a White House meeting with Jordan&#8217;s King Abdullah at the White House Tuesday, reiterated his threat that the U.S. will take control of the Gaza Strip and move the nearly two million Palestinians living there to either Jordan <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/gaza">or Egypt or somewhere</a>.
Asked whether the U.S. would cut billions in financial aid to the two countries if they refused to accept the transfer of Palestinians, Trump sounded confident that Jordan and Egypt would carry out his wishes.
"I don't have to threaten that. I do believe we're above that," Trump said, contradicting his previous suggestion that holding back aid was a possibility.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">How Will The US Attain Gaza?</h2>
Trump said the US could come to control Gaza without committing any money. 
&#8220;We are not going to buy Gaza&#8230;we are going to take it and cherish it,&#8221; Trump said. &#8221; It will bring peace to the Middle East. It is going to be a tremendous thing and put a lot of people to work.&#8221; 
Speaking in broad strokes, Trump insisted that there has been overwhelming support for his plan to turn Gaza into a resort, though in fact most world leaders <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/25/02/43503385/trumps-gaza-plan-for-seaside-resort-faces-global-pushback">criticized his plan</a> when it was first announced.
Trump suggested that the redeveloped area could have new hotels, office buildings and houses and "and we'll make it exciting." 
Trump then waxed on about what a successful real estate magnate he is. "I can tell you about real estate. They're going to be in love with it," he said.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">King Abdullah, What Say You? </h2>
When pressed by reporters specifically as to whether he agreed to the transfer of Palestinians from Gaza, King Adbullah said that more talks will be held soon with Egypt to discuss the issue. Egypt has also condemned Trump&#8217;s plan. 
The King said that Jordan would need to take into consideration how it could or would be able to take Palestinians into his country. The kingdom already shelters 700,000 Syrian refugees and lacks the oil wealth of its neighbors, making continued U.S. aid crucial. Jordan receives nearly $2 billion in foreign aid to Jordan, which contributes at least 42% to the country&#8217;s total economy
&#8220;This is something that we as Arabs will discuss later and talk about the options,&#8221; King Abdullah said. 
Two Palestinians from Michigan told Benzinga that they thought the King played his cards close to his chest and that deferring to upcoming talks with Egypt &#8220;was a good idea. He [Trump] already walked back the threat of cutting aid to both Egypt and Jordan.&#8221;
Analysts from various outlets agreed that King Abdullah held back in the short press briefing during which Trump did most of the talking. Though ahead of Tuesday's meeting, King Abdullah had reaffirmed his commitment to a two-state solution and the need for a "just and comprehensive peace" in the region. 
In terms of Israel&#8217;s plan to annex the mostly Palestinian West Bank, Trump said, &#8220;That&#8217;s going to work out.&#8221;
Abdullah also announced that Jordan was intending to bring to Jordan 2,000 Palestinian children from Gaza in need of cancer treatment, which Trump said was a beautiful thing.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">ETFs To Watch</h3>
According to <a href="https://pro.benzinga.com">Benzinga Pro</a>, oil ETFs were in the green at last check Tuesday:
<ul>
<li>ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UCO#NYSE">UCO</a>) is up by 2.65%</li>
<li>United States Oil Fund LP (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>) is up by 1.25%</li>
<li>SPDR S&amp;P Oil &amp; Gas Exploration &amp; Production ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XOP#NYSE">XOP</a>) is up by 0.9%</li>
<li>MicroSectorsTM Oil &amp; Gas Exploration &amp; Production 3X Leveraged ETNs (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/OILU#NYSE">OILU</a>) saw a 2.94% uptick</li>
</ul>
Now Read:
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/25/02/43621302/justin-trudeau-slams-unacceptable-us-tariffs-after-trump-imposes-25-levy-on-metal-imports-canadians-will-stand-up-strongly-and-firmly-if-we-need-to">Justin Trudeau Slams &#8216;Unacceptable&#8217; US Tariffs After Trump Imposes 25% Levy On Metal Imports : &#8216;Canadians Will Stand Up Strongly And Firmly If We Need To&#8217;</a></li>
</ul>
Palestinian refugees in Gaza: Shutterstock

Trump Says We Will 'Take Gaza' And 'Cherish It' In White House Meeting With Jordan's King Abdullah

The <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/energy-sector" rel="noreferrer noopener">U.S. energy sector</a> posted a strong 2025 opening, outperforming other sectors as crude prices soared and the Market anticipated a deregulatory shift under Donald Trump&#8217;s&nbsp;government.
<a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/oil" rel="noreferrer noopener">Major oil companies</a> Exxon Mobil Corp (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XOM#NYSE">XOM</a>),&nbsp;Chevron Corp (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CVX#NYSE">CVX</a>), and&nbsp;Shell Plc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SHEL#NYSE">SHEL</a>), once the asset-light hypergrowth Big Tech antithesis are now targeting Big Tech to drive value.
Chevron, GE Vernova (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GEV#NYSE">GEV</a>) and Engine No. 1 launched a joint venture to power <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/01/43308041/chevron-ge-vernova-engine-no-1-bet-big-on-ai-power-but-is-it-too-late" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">artificial intelligence data centers</a> by 2027. Exxon will focus on providing low-carbon power through its carbon capture business.
Also Read: <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/media/25/01/43352019/amazon-cuts-more-jobs-in-cost-saving-push-report" rel="noreferrer noopener">Amazon Cuts More Jobs in Cost-Saving Push: Report</a>
Shell wants to use its solar energy and battery storage arm and its natural gas plant in Rhode Island.
The Big Oil trio&#8217;s&nbsp;fourth-quarter earnings grappled with fossil fuel supply outstripping demand, which took a toll on their margins, prompting them to depend on Big Tech energy supply as the latter splurge on their aggressive artificial intelligence data center ambitions, Bloomberg <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-01/exxon-xom-chevron-cvx-brave-deepseek-risk-to-chase-ai-as-oil-glow-fades?sref=TBDibEcD" rel="noreferrer noopener">reports</a>.
However, China&#8217;s DeepSeek&#8217;s <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/01/43390988/deepseek-and-nvidia-under-us-investigation-ai-market-shakeup-wipes-out-1-trillion-in-tech-value" rel="noreferrer noopener">cheaper and low-power</a> AI model&#8217;s emergence rivaling Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>) backed OpenAI, and&nbsp;other Big Tech giants posed a letdown for the oil companies by potentially cutting the need for data centers. The oil companies are betting on the growing demand for natural gas-generated electricity.
Big Oil resorted to buybacks and dividends to lure investors as the prospect of peak oil demand looms. However, the shareholder return strategy reached its limit.
Exxon paid out its entire <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/25/01/43389620/exxon-mobil-q4-earnings-mixed-results-but-ceo-promises-profitable-growth-well-into-the-future" rel="noreferrer noopener">free cash flow</a> of $36.0 billion in 2024 dividends and buybacks, yet still trades at a 46% discount to the S&amp;P 500 Index average.
It plans to expand its annual $20 billion share repurchase program through 2026.&nbsp;Chevron returned&nbsp;<a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/01/43382627/chevron-falls-as-q4-profits-decline-amid-lower-oil-output-dividend-hike-offers-silver-lining" rel="noreferrer noopener">$27.0&nbsp;billion&nbsp;of</a> cash to shareholders in the year.
The U.S. is now the world&#8217;s biggest oil producer. Yet energy stocks make up just 3.2% of the S&amp;P 500. Part of Big Oil&#8217;s discounted valuation is due to its high capital spending that failed to yield returns.
Due to the energy transition, the Street remains jittery over the sustainability of dividends and buybacks. The volatility of commodity-price swings also dampened the valuation of fossil fuels compared to cash-rich Big Tech.
Goldman Sachs&#8217;&nbsp;Daan Struyven expects Donald Trump&#8217;s <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/market-summary/24/11/42212364/trumps-tariff-threat-to-canada-may-disrupt-oil-markets-inflate-prices-would-likely-raise-the-price-of-fuels-says-analyst" rel="noreferrer noopener">25% tariffs on</a> Canada to raise the price of fuels in the U.S. and drive inflation. Higher transport costs could also affect the profits of oil marketing companies.
Struyven recently said he expects <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/01/43036184/us-energy-sector-enjoys-strong-start-to-2025-analysts-eye-constructive-setup-for-chevron" rel="noreferrer noopener">oil prices to</a> reach $90 per barrel if the U.S. further tightens Russia, Iran, and Venezuela&#8217;s oil supply.
Investors can gain exposure to crude oil through the United States Oil Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>) and ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UCO#NYSE">UCO</a>).
Price Actions: At last check on Monday, XOM stock was down 0.37% to $106.43. CVX is up 0.10%, and SHEL is down 1.06%.
Also Read:
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/01/43351386/metas-ai-investments-llama-expansion-and-ad-tech-drive-growth-earn-analyst-conviction" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Meta&#8217;s AI Investments, Llama Expansion, Ad Tech Growth Earn Analyst Conviction</a></li>
</ul>
Image via Shutterstock

Chevron, Exxon And Shell Shift Focus To Powering AI Growth

The International Energy Agency has revised its <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/oil" rel="noreferrer noopener">global oil demand</a> outlook slightly for 2025, projecting growth of 1.05 million barrels per day, down from <a target="_blank" href="https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-december-2024" rel="noreferrer noopener">the previously estimated</a> 1.1 million barrels daily.
The new forecast anticipates global demand will average 104 million barrels daily, reflecting a combination of improving economic conditions and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-january-2025" rel="noreferrer noopener">lower fuel prices</a>.
In the fourth quarter of 2024, oil demand rebounded strongly, increasing by 1.5 million barrels daily—the highest growth since late 2023.
Also Read: <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/01/42980720/microsoft-taps-meta-veteran-to-lead-new-coreai-division-plans-shift-from-openai-dependence" rel="noreferrer noopener">Microsoft Launches CoreAI Division: Ex-Meta Exec To Supercharge Copilot And AI Innovations</a>
The IEA attributed this surge to reduced fuel prices, colder weather in northern regions, and heightened petrochemical activity in the U.S. However, while 2025 demand growth will likely surpass 2024, it will fall short of the over 2 million barrels per day increase seen in 2023.
OPEC projects a higher demand growth of <a target="_blank" href="https://momr.opec.org/pdf-download/" rel="noreferrer noopener">1.45 million barrels daily</a>.
<a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/commodities/24/11/41899890/opec-cuts-2024-oil-demand-forecast-for-fourth-straight-month-amid-chinas-economic-slowdown" rel="noreferrer noopener">Disappointing data from</a> major Asian markets, including China, India, and African countries, prompted OPEC to revise its oil demand growth forecasts for 2024 several times.
Still, OPEC&#8217;s estimates looked more optimistic than those of Wall Street banks and Saudi Aramco.
China saw a significant uptick in oil demand in November, driven by rising gasoil consumption and falling diesel prices, which hit their lowest in nearly three years.
The IEA highlighted that signs of stabilization in China&#8217;s property market could support further recovery in oil demand. Projections suggest China will add 220,000 barrels per day to its oil consumption in 2025, compared to a 180,000-barrel daily increase in 2024, the Wall Street Journal <a target="_blank" href="https://www.wsj.com/business/energy-oil/iea-trims-oil-demand-outlook-but-still-expects-stronger-growth-this-year-a972c71b?mod=business_lead_pos4" rel="noreferrer noopener">reports</a>.
Recent U.S. sanctions targeting Russia&#8217;s energy sector and shipping networks and measures aimed at Iran&#8217;s shadow fleet could disrupt global oil supplies. These actions may compel major buyers like China and India to seek alternative sources.
Meanwhile, Brent crude prices hover around $80 per barrel, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate trades near $77 per barrel, reflecting market concerns over tightened supply, the WSJ reports.
Despite geopolitical pressures, global oil supply rose modestly in December 2024, supported by increased production in Nigeria and Libya. For 2025, the IEA forecasts supply growth of 1.8 million barrels daily, led by non-OPEC+ countries such as the U.S., Brazil, and Canada. However, the agency cautioned that sanctions or weather-related disruptions could rapidly draw down existing oil stocks.
Notable oil stocks include Exxon Mobil Corp (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XOM#NYSE">XOM</a>), Chevron Corp (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CVX#NYSE">CVX</a>), Shell Plc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SHEL#NYSE">SHEL</a>), TotalEnergies SE (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TTE#NYSE">TTE</a>), Petroleo Brasileiro (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PBR#NYSE">PBR</a>) and BP Plc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BP#NYSE">BP</a>).
Investors can gain exposure to the crude oil market through the United States Oil Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>) and ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UCO#NYSE">UCO</a>).
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Photo by William Potter on Shutterstock

OPEC's Optimism Clashes With IEA's Conservative 2025 Oil Growth Projections

At least one aspect of Israel&#8217;s multifront war is expected to come to an end if the militant group Hamas comes to ceasefire terms <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/global">with Israel</a>.
What Happened: So far, Hamas has yielded at least two of Israel's demands for a cease-fire agreement in Gaza, according to a Thursday <a href="https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/israel-gaza-palestine-ceasefire-hostage-negotiations-d599e1d1">Wall Street Journal</a> report. 
The development comes after previous negotiations collapsed. And, just three months ago, certain <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/09/40955425/top-us-officials-skeptical-of-israel-hamas-cease-fire-and-hostage-deal-before-bidens-term-ends-repor">senior U.S. officials were skeptical</a> that a hostage-release deal would occur before the end of President Joe Biden‘s term.
The scenario has changed drastically. 
U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan spoke to the press in Tel Aviv Thursday after meeting with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel.
&#8220;Hamas started this war,&#8221; Sullivan said, optimistic that a ceasefire and hostage release &#8220;can happen.&#8221;
See below.
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Sullivan said he is set to visit Doha, Qatar and Cairo to close a deal &#8220;this month.&#8221; 
Hamas is reportedly willing to allow Israeli forces to stay in Gaza temporarily when the fighting stops, the WSJ reported. A list of hostages, including U.S. citizens, is expected to be released as part of a ceasefire pact.
Whether the ceasefire would last or be fully enforced remains to be seen.
Israel and Hezbollah were expected to <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/global/24/11/42199447/netanyahu-backs-cease-fire-deal-with-hezbollah-israeli-hardliner-calls-for-security-zone-inside-lebanon">pause fighting in Lebanon</a> last month, but <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/global/24/12/42279102/israel-hezbollah-trade-strikes-in-latest-sign-of-crumbling-ceasefire">attacks continued into December</a>. At least five people were killed in Israeli attacks on southern Lebanon in the last 24 hours, per <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/12/11/israeli-strikes-kill-five-in-southern-lebanon-amid-shaky-ceasefire">Al Jazeera</a>, citing the country's Health Ministry.
Hezbollah began firing rockets toward Israel after Hamas attacked <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/23/10/35136071/israel-under-siege-unprecedented-hamas-attack-sparks-intense-clashes-netanyahu-says-we-are-at-war">Israel on Oct. 7, 2023</a>.
Why It Matters: The ceasefire agreement would come as the balance of power in the Middle East changes.
This week, Israel seized the buffer zone as Bashar al-Assad&#8216;s rule in Syria collapsed. Al-Assad and his family were subsequently <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/24/12/42381587/bashar-al-assad-and-his-family-granted-asylum-by-russia-kremlin-source-says-always-spoken-in-favor-of-political-settlement">granted asylum by Russia</a>.
Assad&#8217;s regime was considered a lifeline to Hezbollah.
Traders can gain exposure to oil stocks that are affected by Middle East geopolitcal news via ETFs, or exchange-traded funds. According to <a href="https://pro.benzinga.com">Benzinga Pro</a>:
<ul>
<li>ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UCO#NYSE">UCO</a>) is up 0.27% Thursday. </li>
<li>United States Oil Fund LP (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>) dropped 0.16%.</li>
<li>SPDR S&amp;P Oil &amp; Gas Exploration &amp; Production ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XOP#NYSE">XOP</a>) decreased by 0.79%.</li>
<li>MicroSectorsTM Oil &amp; Gas Exploration &amp; Production 3X Leveraged ETNs (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/OILU#NYSE">OILU</a>) saw a 2.39% drop.</li>
</ul>
Israeli stocks, as monitored through the VanEck Israel ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ISRA#NYSE">ISRA</a>), are up 25.34% year-to-date.
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</ul>
Image: Shutterstock

Markets

ISRA

Hamas Relents On Israeli Troops In Gaza, Paves Way For Potential Hostage Release

Oil markets in 2025 could face turbulence if President-elect Donald Trump reintroduces strict <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/iran">policies toward Iran.</a>
According to JPMorgan analyst Arun Jayaram, while non-OPEC supply growth is expected to stabilize prices, the geopolitical wildcard of renewed sanctions on Iran could send shockwaves through the market.
Investors in the United States Oil Fund LP (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>), the ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UCO#NYSE">UCO</a>) and the Invesco DB Oil Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DBO#NYSE">DBO</a>) may want to closely monitor their holdings.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Trump's Maximum Pressure: A Familiar Script?</h2>
During Trump's first presidency, his "maximum pressure" campaign drastically curtailed Iranian oil exports, cutting them to just 400,000 barrels per day. In contrast, under the Joe Biden administration, Iran's oil exports rebounded dramatically, surging to 1.6 million barrels per day by 2024. 
Jayaram suggests that Trump's potential return to sanctions could disrupt up to 1 million barrels per day of Iranian crude—an outcome that could unsettle the fragile equilibrium.
Read Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/12/42340255/opec-extends-oil-output-cuts-to-late-2026-what-it-means-for-markets">OPEC+ Extends Oil Output Cuts To Late 2026: What It Means For Markets</a>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Can OPEC+ Play Along?</h2>
Jayaram's analysis highlights a significant challenge for Trump's sanctions strategy this time: OPEC+. Previously, the oil cartel adjusted production to mitigate the impact of lost Iranian barrels. 
However, with shifting alliances and evolving market dynamics, securing similar cooperation may prove far more difficult for Trump 2.0. Without OPEC+ backing, the effectiveness of sanctions in stabilizing prices could be severely limited.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">What's Next For Oil Markets?</h2>
With non-OPEC supply projected to grow, the baseline for oil prices appears steady. Yet, the prospect of geopolitical brinkmanship introduces uncertainty. 
Jayaram emphasizes that the outcome hinges on Trump's ability to navigate international diplomacy and OPEC+ politics, both of which could determine whether oil markets face disruption or find balance.
The stage is set for a complex and unpredictable 2025, where Trump's Iran policies and shifting market dynamics could redefine the balance of power in oil markets. Investors should remain attentive to how these forces unfold.&#8221;
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Photo: Shutterstock

Analyst Color

Long Ideas

Regulations

Analyst Ratings

How Trump's Iran Policies Could Shape Oil Markets In 2025

Editor&#8217;s note: This story was updated to add missing detail in the introduction and further updated to reflect approval of a cease-fire deal by Israel&#8217;s cabinet and U.S. President Joe Biden&#8217;s Tuesday afternoon announcement. Stock price action in the story has been updated and exchange and ticker info for the ISRA ETF has been corrected as well. 
The governments of Israel and Lebanon have accepted a cease-fire deal, President Joe Biden said Tuesday. 
&#8220;Today I have some good news to report from the Middle East,&#8221; Biden said, adding that he spoke with the prime ministers of Israel and Lebanon. 
&#8220;I am pleased to announce that their governments have accepted the U.S. proposal to end the devastating conflict between Israel and Hezbollah,&#8221; said Biden, who made the remarks in the White House Rose Garden. 
The cease-fire is set to take effect at 4 a.m. Wednesday, Biden said.
Hezbollah has not immediately commented on the deal announcement, the New York Times reported. Lebanon&#8217;s government does not control the Hezbollah militant group. 
The deal calls for a 60-day truce, The New York Times reported, and would be overseen by the U.S., United Nations and others. Israel would withdraw forces from Lebanon and Hezbollah would move fighters to north of the Litani River.
Strikes between Israel and Hezbollah have continued during the cease-fire negotiations.
What Happened: The short-term proposal is to pause hostilities for 60 days but with the intention of a lasting truce, according to <a href="https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-hezbollah-ceasefire-deal-gaza-war-11-26-24-intl-hnk/index.html">CNN</a>, which cited an Israeli official. 
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu offered three reasons for the cease fire, one being to shift focus to Iran, replenish Israeli troops and put greater pressure on Hamas to release the hostages that were captured <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/23/10/35136071/israel-under-siege-unprecedented-hamas-attack-sparks-intense-clashes-netanyahu-says-we-are-at-war">on Oct. 7, 2023</a>.
See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/24/11/42198266/crude-oil-moves-lower-dicks-sporting-goods-earnings-top-views">Crude Oil Moves Lower; Dick&#8217;s Sporting Goods Earnings Top Views</a>
Why It Matters: Not everyone is so confident the cease-fire will work.
Per the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/11/26/world/israel-hezbollah-lebanon-cease-fire">New York Times</a>, Israel&#8217;s national security minister Itamar Ben-Gvir stressed the need for a "security zone" inside Lebanon to defend against Hezbollah. Otherwise, the two countries risk another war in the future, he said. 
Ben-Gvir did not indicate that a cease-fire decision would cause him to leave Netanyahu's coalition.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Market Reactions</h3>
Oil prices were trading down Tuesday, with the United States Oil Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>) 0.65% lower at last check. 
Israeli stocks, as monitored through the VanEck Israel ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ISRA#NYSE">ISRA</a>) are up 23.5% year-to-date.
Other oil ETFs were in the red at last check Tuesday afternoon.
ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UCO#NYSE">UCO</a>) fell by 0.93%, SPDR S&amp;P Oil &amp; Gas Exploration &amp; Production ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XOP#NYSE">XOP</a>) was down 0.75% ahead of the closing bell and MicroSectorsTM Oil &amp; Gas Exploration &amp; Production 3X Leveraged ETNs (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/OILU#NYSE">OILU</a>) saw a 0.45% drop, according to <a href="https://pro.benzinga.com">Benzinga Pro</a>.
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Image: Shutterstock.

Ceasefire Deal Between Israel, Hezbollah Takes Effect Wednesday: Biden

Amid&nbsp;Donald Trump&#8216;s recent pledge to boost U.S. oil production significantly, questions arise about the necessity and impact of such a move.&nbsp;Vikas Dwivedi, a global energy strategist at&nbsp;Macquarie Group, has expressed skepticism regarding the need for an additional 3 million barrels per day.
What Happened: Dwivedi discussed the potential impact of Trump&#8217;s second term on the U.S. oil supply. Talking to&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/video/2024/11/25/us-oil-supply-increases-will-be-marginal-with-trump-2point0-macquarie.html">CNBC</a> &#8220;Squawk Box&#8221;&nbsp;on Monday, he said that anticipates only marginal increases in supply, despite Trump&#8217;s <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/11/42130859/as-trump-backs-drill-baby-drill-his-doge-co-lead-elon-musk-believes-all-energy-generation-will-be-solar-heres-what-ubs-recommends-after-election-dip">&#8220;Drill Baby Drill&#8221; stance.</a>
&#8220;We actually think there will be marginal supply increases from the U.S. The risks to supply will eventually be marginal but in the beginning of the administration, we think, the moves that they will make will increase supply risks,&#8221; Dwivedi said, adding the risks arising particularly through attempts to limit Iranian oil exports. He noted that the Ships Act aims to eliminate entities facilitating Iranian crude sales, but this could inadvertently reduce global oil supply.
Addressing Trump&#8217;s ambitious energy policy, Dwivedi questioned the necessity of increasing U.S. oil production.
&#8220;The real challenge is: does the world need that much oil? And if the U.S. did grow 3 million barrels a day during the Trump Administration, that&#8217;s like 750,000 a day over four years,&#8221; he explained
&#8220;I think the right question to ask energy executives is are you okay with $40 oil because I think that&#8217;s what you would end up with and are you okay with trying to figure out how to maintain production and um you know still be able to do the dividends and the share buybacks that are now not as discretionary as they used to be.&#8221;
Furthermore, Dwivedi highlighted the geopolitical risks associated with a rapid U.S. withdrawal of support for Ukraine. He warned that if Ukraine feels cornered, it might target Russian oil infrastructure, which could further impact the global oil supply.
See Also:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/24/11/42153356/is-warren-buffett-preparing-for-a-market-downturn-with-berkshire-hathaways-325b-cash-pile-analyst-says-internet-bubble-and-2008-crash-may-have-lessons?itm_source=parsely-api" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Is Warren Buffett Preparing For A Market Downturn With Berkshire Hathaway&#8217;s $325B Cash Pile? Analyst Says</a>
Why It Matters: Trump&#8217;s energy strategy, which includes faster permitting and weaker environmental regulations, aims to cut American energy costs significantly. However, experts have warned that these<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/09/40703958/trumps-drill-baby-drill-pledge-may-not-deliver-promised-energy-price-cuts-experts-warn"> promises may not materialize</a> due to the complexities of global and regional energy markets. Many oil drillers remain cautious about increasing production, opting instead to return cash to shareholders. This hesitancy is compounded by factors like weather patterns and global conflicts, which are not easily influenced by policy changes.
Meanwhile, Elon Musk, who has been announced to head the new Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), continues to <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/11/42130859/as-trump-backs-drill-baby-drill-his-doge-co-lead-elon-musk-believes-all-energy-generation-will-be-solar-heres-what-ubs-recommends-after-election-dip">advocate for solar power</a> as the future of energy generation, presenting a different vision from Trump&#8217;s fossil fuel-focused approach. Analysts also see an opportunity for investment in renewables, highlighting the sector&#8217;s potential for growth even amid political shifts.
Price Action: As per <a href="https://pro.benzinga.com">Benzinga Pro</a>, oil ETFs have seen slight gains in the past one month surrounding the presidential elections. As of Monday, ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UCO#NYSE">UCO</a>) increased 3.51%, SPDR S&amp;P Oil &amp; Gas Exploration &amp; Production ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XOP#NYSE">XOP</a>) increased by 10.78%, while MicroSectorsTM Oil &amp; Gas Exploration &amp; Production 3X Leveraged ETNs (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/OILU#NYSE">OILU</a>) increased by 20.99%.
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</ul>
Image via Shutterstock

General

Amid Trump's 'Drill Baby, Drill' Pledge, Strategist Predicts US Oil Supply Will See 'Marginal' Increase: 'Does The World Need That Much Oil?'

President-elect Donald Trump is considering appointing an &#8220;energy czar,&#8221; a role that would have the authority to nix environmental regulations and increase U.S.<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/24/11/41831044/how-to-play-the-trump-trade-for-ai-energy-taxes-analyst-says-5-stocks-could-shine"> fossil fuel production. </a>
What Happened: Trump is looking to appoint an overseer of deregulation efforts across various agencies, including the Department of Energy, Department of Interior, Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, and Environmental Protection Agency.
According <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/f75bd3f1-213f-4501-9005-58b42205ffff">to</a> the Financial Times, North Dakota Gov. and billionaire Doug Burgum is the frontrunner for this so-called energy czar position. 
Read More: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/biotech/24/11/41822473/trumps-potential-health-czar-robert-f-kennedy-jr-rattles-vaccine-stocks-shoot-first-reaction">Trump&#8217;s Potential &#8216;Health Czar&#8217; Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Rattles Vaccine Stocks: &#8216;Shoot First Reaction&#8217;</a>
Burgum initially competed in the Republican primary before endorsing Trump. He previously headed Great Plains Software, becoming its president in 1984, and selling the company to Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>) in 2001 for $1.1 billion. 
He has also served on the board of Atlassian Corp. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TEAM#NASDAQ">TEAM</a>) and most recently served as an energy advisor to Trump during his latest presidential campaign. 
Why It Matters: The news coincides with John Podesta, Biden&#8217;s lead climate diplomat, appearing at the UN climate summit in Baku, Azerbaijan, Monday. He <a href="https://www.axios.com/2024/11/11/top-biden-climate-diplomat-criticizes-trump-at-un-summit">called</a> the Nov. 5 presidential election outcome &#8220;bitterly disappointing.&#8221;
Over the past four years, the Biden Administration <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/personal-finance/24/05/38796993/bidens-1-6-trillion-investment-in-green-energy-sector-has-hit-stonewall-in-the-form-of-unspent-c">expanded clean energy initiatives</a> and <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/23/10/35240230/us-is-producing-more-oil-under-biden-than-at-any-point-under-the-trump-administration">produced more oil </a>than the previous Trump Administration.
Ali Zaidi, Biden&#8217;s national climate adviser, will likely be replaced with an energy czar as president-elect Trump targets current climate and energy regulations (i.e., vehicle emissions rules and lifting restrictions on oil and gas drilling). 
Analysts <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/11/41781921/what-does-trumps-victory-mean-for-ev-giant-tesla-and-the-big-3-automakers">have said </a>such changes could spell trouble for the clean energy and electric vehicle industry, but could be a boon for oil and gas companies.&nbsp;
EV-makers including Rivian Automotive, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/RIVN#NASDAQ">RIVN</a>) and Lucid Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/LCID#NASDAQ">LCID</a>) could see fewer sales if the Trump administration pulls rebates and tax incentives. However, oil and gas companies like Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XOM#NYSE">XOM</a>) and Chevron Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CVX#NYSE">CVX</a>) could see increased profits as Trump has vowed to lift restrictions on drilling and traditional energy production. 
Investors can also monitor the effects of potential policy changes in the broader EV sector through the iShares Self-Driving EV and Tech ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IDRV#NYSE">IDRV</a>) and oil through the ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UCO#NYSE">UCO</a>). 
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Image: Shutterstock

IDRV

LCID

RIVN

TEAM

Trump Looks To Undo Biden Climate Progress With Burgum As 'Energy Czar': Report

Oil-based exchange-traded funds (ETFs) experienced a significant decline, dropping over 4%, following Israel&#8217;s recent military strikes on Iran. The strikes, which occurred over the weekend, were reported as &#8220;limited&#8221; by local media, leading analysts to downplay the potential impact on oil supplies.
What Happened: Israel&#8217;s military targeted Iranian sites in three provinces on Saturday in response to a ballistic missile attack by Tehran on October 1. According to the Iranian news agency Tasnim, the strikes resulted in the deaths of four soldiers and caused &#8220;limited damages,&#8221; sparing oil, nuclear, and civilian infrastructure. Post the strikes, oil prices saw a sharp decline of more than 4% on Monday, CNBC <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/28/oil-slides-over-4percent-as-israels-attack-on-iran-unlikely-to-disrupt-supplies.html">reported</a> on Monday. I
See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/24/10/41538660/tesla-nvidia-led-market-rally-now-pressures-investment-funds-to-offload-shares-to-avoid-us-tax-l?itm_source=parsely-api" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Tesla, Nvidia-Led Market Rally Now Pressures Investment Funds To Offload Shares To Avoid US Tax Lawsuits</a>
Following the attacks, several oil ETFs recorded notable losses.
During pre-market hours on Monday, ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UCO#NYSE">UCO</a>) fell by 8.41%, United States Oil Fund LP (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>) dropped 4.69%, SPDR S&amp;P Oil &amp; Gas Exploration &amp; Production ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XOP#NYSE">XOP</a>) decreased by 1.81%, and MicroSectorsTM Oil &amp; Gas Exploration &amp; Production 3X Leveraged ETNs (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/OILU#NYSE">OILU</a>) saw a 4.54% drop, according to <a href="https://pro.benzinga.com">Benzinga Pro</a>.
Despite the tensions, Iran&#8217;s oil industry remains unaffected, with operations continuing as usual. Iran is responsible for up to 4% of the global oil supply, as per the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The attack comes after an Iran-backed Hamas assault on Israel on Oct. 7 last year.
Why It Matters: The recent strikes add to the ongoing geopolitical tensions that have kept energy markets on edge. Earlier this month, oil prices had already dipped by 2% after OPEC reduced its<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/10/41320277/oil-prices-drop-2-as-opec-cuts-forecast-irans-output-rises-analyst-says-netanyahu-m"> global oil demand growth forecast</a> for the third consecutive month. This was due to actual consumption data and slightly lowered demand expectations.
Experts had warned that an Israeli attack on Iranian oil facilities could significantly disrupt global oil prices. John Driscoll, chief strategist at JTD Energy Services, highlighted the potential for <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/10/41309234/israels-attack-on-iran-would-rattle-the-nerves-of-oil-market-says-expert">such actions to unsettle the market</a>, drawing parallels to past incidents like the 2019 drone attacks on Saudi oil fields.
Although Iran&#8217;s oil production is lower due to sanctions, any disruption could still lead to a price increase.
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/10/41561645/trumps-rising-election-odds-sends-emerging-markets-into-tailspin-causes-biggest-stock-drop-in-10-mon?itm_source=parsely-api" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Trump&#8217;s Rising Election Odds Sends Emerging Markets Into Tailspin, Causes Biggest Stock Drop In 10 Months</a></li>
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Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of&nbsp;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/author/benzinga-neuro" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Benzinga Neuro</a>&nbsp;and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
Photo by William Potter on Shutterstock

Pre-Market Outlook

Oil ETFs Plunge Premarket After Israel's Strikes On Iran

World&#8217;s second largest oil consumer, China has urged Israel and Iran to reduce escalating tensions, emphasizing the need to avoid a &#8220;vicious circle&#8221; of conflict. This appeal was made during separate phone calls on Monday between China&#8217;s top diplomat Wang Yi and his counterparts from both nations.
What Happened: China is actively mediating in the Middle East. Wang Yi also engaged in discussions with Saudi Arabian Foreign Vice-Minister Waleed bin Abdulkarim El-Khereiji. During a call with Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz, Wang expressed China&#8217;s deep concern over the escalating tensions with Iran, stressing that renewed conflict is not beneficial for any nation, South China Morning Post <a href="https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3282414/china-calls-israel-and-iran-avoid-falling-vicious-circle?module=top_story&amp;pgtype=homepage">reported</a> on Tuesday.
Wang Yi urged for an &#8220;immediate, complete and permanent&#8221; ceasefire in Gaza, highlighting the importance of releasing hostages and returning to the &#8220;two-state solution&#8221; for lasting peace. Katz, in a post on X, stated that he informed Wang of Iran&#8217;s role in destabilizing the region and expressed expectations for China to maintain a balanced stance.
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In a separate call, Iranian Foreign Minister Seyyed Abbas Araghchi conveyed Tehran&#8217;s concerns about the risk of further conflict escalation. He urged caution from Israel and welcomed China&#8217;s mediation efforts to restore regional peace and security.
Why It Matters: The call for de-escalation by China comes amid a backdrop of fluctuating oil prices and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Recently, oil prices fell over 1% due to concerns over <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/asia/24/10/41257792/oil-dips-to-73-as-china-withholds-stimulus-biden-attempts-to-contain-netanyahu-over-israels-attack-o">weaker demand from China.</a> This occurred after China withheld aggressive fiscal stimulus that analysts had anticipated.
Additionally, <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/10/41320277/oil-prices-drop-2-as-opec-cuts-forecast-irans-output-rises-analyst-says-netanyahu-m">oil prices dropped 2%</a> after OPEC reduced its global oil demand growth estimate for the third consecutive month. This decline in oil prices reflects broader concerns about the Middle East&#8217;s geopolitical stability, particularly as Israel has not yet retaliated against Iran following a recent attack involving over 180 ballistic missiles.
Price Action: At the time of writing on Tuesday during the pre-market, United States Oil Fund, LP (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>) was down by 4.81%, Invesco DB Oil Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DBO#NYSE">DBO</a>) was trading 5.11% lower and ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UCO#NYSE">UCO</a>) was down by 8.13%, according to <a href="https://pro.benzinga.com">Benzinga Pro</a>.
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Image via Shutterstock
This story was generated using <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/author/benzinga-neuro">Benzinga Neuro</a> and edited by <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/Pooja-Rajkumari" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Pooja Rajkumari</a>

After Pulling Down Oil Prices With Weak Demand, China Urges Israel, Iran To Avoid 'Vicious Circle' Of Conflict

Crude oil prices dropped sharply late Monday afternoon after The Washington Post reported Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told the Biden administration he is willing to strike military targets rather than oil or <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/24/10/41298349/us-hits-iran-oil-exports-with-new-sanctions-after-israel-attack-crude-oil-holds-steady-at-75">nuclear facilities in Iran.&nbsp;</a>
The Details: Netanyahu told President Joe Biden in a call last Wednesday he is planning to target military infrastructure in a retaliatory strike against Iran, according to a U.S. official and an official <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/10/14/israel-iran-strike-nuclear-oil-military/">familiar with the matter</a>. 
The sources also said Israel's action against Iran will be designed to avoid any perception of "political interference in the U.S. elections" noting an attack on Iranian oil facilities could send energy prices higher. The official familiar with the matter described Netanyahu as being in a "more moderated place" during the call between the two leaders.&nbsp;
Read Next: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/10/41320277/oil-prices-drop-2-as-opec-cuts-forecast-irans-output-rises-analyst-says-netanyahu-m">Oil Prices Drop 2% As OPEC Cuts Forecast, Iran&#8217;s Output Rises: Analyst Says Netanyahu May Doubt US Commitment To &#8216;Restricting Iranian Exports&#8217;</a>
What Else: The United States Oil Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>) which tracks West Texas Intermediate (WTI) light crude fell 2.01% in Monday's regular trading session after OPEC lowered its 2024 global <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/10/41320277/oil-prices-drop-2-as-opec-cuts-forecast-irans-output-rises-analyst-says-netanyahu-m">oil-demand growth forecast</a> and its 2025 global oil-demand growth forecast. 
In its Monthly Oil Market Report <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/10/41320277/oil-prices-drop-2-as-opec-cuts-forecast-irans-output-rises-analyst-says-netanyahu-m">released on Monday</a>, OPEC reduced its 2024 oil demand growth estimate by 106,000 barrels per day (bpd), now expecting global demand to increase by 1.93 million bpd next year. Additionally, the forecast for 2025 demand growth was lowered by 102,000 bpd to 1.6 million bpd year-over-year.
The ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UCO#NYSE">UCO</a>) fund fell more than 2% in regular trading Monday following the lower global oil-demand growth forecast and is down another 4.51% at $27.50 after-hours. 
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Photo: Shutterstock

Movers

Oil Prices Drop After Netanyahu Says Israel Will Attack Military, Not Oil Or Nuclear Targets In Iran

Amid rising geopolitical tensions, energy markets are on edge as experts warn of potential disruptions. An Israeli military action targeting Iranian oil facilities could significantly impact global oil prices, according to industry analysts.
What Happened: John Driscoll, chief strategist at JTD Energy Services, highlighted the potential impact of an Israeli attack on Iranian oil facilities. Driscoll noted that such an event could significantly influence oil prices, drawing parallels to past incidents like the 2019 drone attacks on Saudi Arabian oil fields, according to <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/video/2024/10/14/israel-attack-on-iran-oil-bases-would-have-dramatic-effect-strategist.html">CNBC</a> on Monday.
Driscoll explained that while Iran&#8217;s oil production is around 2.5 to 3 million barrels per day, its exports are considerably lower due to sanctions. A disruption in Iranian exports, even by half a million barrels per day, could lead to a substantial price increase. He emphasized that Iran, though not as pivotal as Saudi Arabia or Abu Dhabi, still plays a role that could unsettle the market.
&#8220;While Iran is not as critical a player as say the Saudis or Abu Dhabi or Kuwait, you know still this is going to have a dramatic effect. It&#8217;s going to rattle the nerves of the oil markets,&#8221; Driscoll said.
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The strategist remarked that traders thrive on market volatility, and such geopolitical tensions could provide them with lucrative opportunities. Driscoll warned that the oil market should brace for a turbulent period in the coming weeks, as any military action could create significant fluctuations in oil prices.
Why It Matters: The potential for an Israeli strike on Iranian oil facilities comes amid heightened tensions in the region. Earlier this month, President Joe Biden confirmed that the<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/24/10/41172781/oil-prices-rally-biden-confirms-us-discussions-with-israel-about-striking-iran-facilities"> U.S. had discussions with Israel </a>about targeting Iran&#8217;s oil infrastructure, causing oil prices to surge by over 5%. Although Biden appeared hesitant about the idea, the mere possibility has already influenced market dynamics.
Additionally, the U.S. recently imposed new sanctions on Iran&#8217;s petroleum and petrochemical sectors following Iran&#8217;s attacks on Israel, aiming to cut off revenue streams that <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/24/10/41298349/us-hits-iran-oil-exports-with-new-sanctions-after-israel-attack-crude-oil-holds-steady-at-75">fund destabilizing activities</a> in the Middle East. These developments underscore the fragile state of the oil market, where geopolitical events can lead to significant price volatility.
Price Action: On Monday, during the pre-market hours, oil ETFs were showing mixed activity as per <a href="https://pro.benzinga.com">Benzinga Pro</a>. United States Oil Fund, LP (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>) was down by 2.37% while ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Crude Oil (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SCO#NYSE">SCO</a>) was up by 4.40%. Meanwhile, ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UCO#NYSE">UCO</a>) was trading 4.29% lower. 
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Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of&nbsp;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/author/benzinga-neuro" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Benzinga Neuro</a>&nbsp;and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
Photo by Hamara via Shutterstock

Potential Israeli Attack On Iran Would 'Rattle The Nerves Of Oil Market,' Says Expert

Oil is trading more than 5% higher Thursday on the heels of President Joe Biden&#8216;s statement that the U.S. spoke with Israel about a possible attack on Iran's oil facilities.
"We're in discussions about that,&#8221; Biden said during an interaction with reporters. 
Biden seemingly indicated he wasn&#8217;t partial to the idea of striking at Iran&#8217;s oil facilities, before cutting himself off: &#8220;I think that would be a little&#8230; anyway.&#8221; See video below.
<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio"> 
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When one reporter asked whether Biden would &#8220;allow&#8221; Israel to retaliate against Iran, Biden swiftly corrected him: &#8220;First of all, we don&#8217;t &#8216;allow&#8217; Israel. We advise Israel.&#8221;
<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/23/10/35136071/israel-under-siege-unprecedented-hamas-attack-sparks-intense-clashes-netanyahu-says-we-are-at-war">Since Oct. 7, 2023</a>, Israel has been fighting Hamas in Gaza as well as Hezbollah in Lebanon. Both groups are considered terrorist organizations by the U.S. 
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<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Oil And The Israel-Iran Conflict</h3>
Iran is the seventh-largest oil producer in the world. The country, which backs the Hezbollah militant group, exports around half its production abroad. 
China, where <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/asia/24/08/40596334/asia-markets-mixed-europe-gains-crude-oil-falls-on-chinese-demand-concerns-global-markets-today-whil">oil demand is weak</a>, is its main customer.
Since Iran's <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/global/24/10/41126038/iran-attacks-israel-with-missiles-middle-east-tensions-escalates-s-p-500-stocks-bitcoin-fall-as-oil">missile attack on Israel</a> on Monday, the price of barrels has fluctuated. As of Oct. 3, the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is $73.83 per barrel. This reflects a 5.32% increase from the previous day&#8217;s close of $70.10.
The price of Brent crude is approximately $77.76 per barrel. It has fluctuated within a range of $74.33 to $77.58 for the day.
The U.S., which is producing more oil under Biden than any other U.S. presidential administration, has been filling its reserves. The Biden administration acquired an additional <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/eurozone/24/10/41146905/geopolitical-risks-may-be-biggest-threat-to-markets-boe-says">6 million barrels of crude</a> just this week.
It&#8217;s worth noting that ongoing violence in the Middle East puts the Straits of Hormuz at risk. A third of tanker traffic and a fifth of LNG frozen gas is transported through that passageway. 
The U.S. and its allies are likely determined to keep the Strait open due to its strategic importance. Any attempt to block the Strait could provoke military intervention.
Iran controls much of the northern coastline of the Strait and has previously threatened to block the passage in response to sanctions or conflicts with Western countries. 
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Market Reaction</h3>
So far, market reaction to the Middle East conflict is relatively mute compared to February 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine.
At the time, the oil market reacted with significant volatility and disruption, leading to a sharp rise in global prices. 
Brent crude, the global benchmark, surged above $100 per barrel for the first time since 2014, and by March 2022, it had briefly spiked to $139 per barrel, near the all-time high.
Oil-related exchange-traded funds, or ETFs, were trending up at last check Thursday afternoon. Here&#8217;s where they stand: 
<ul>
<li>United States Oil Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>) is up 4.05% to $75.71</li>
<li>Invesco DB Oil Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DBO#NYSE">DBO</a>) is up 4.08% at $15.06</li>
<li>SPDR S&amp;P Oil &amp; Gas Exploration &amp; Production ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XOP#NYSE">XOP</a>) is up 3.1% at $139.56</li>
<li>Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLE#NYSE">XLE</a>) up 1.65% at $92.22</li>
<li>ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UCO#NYSE">UCO</a>) is up 6.59% at $28.81</li>
<li>VanEck Vectors Oil Services ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/OIH#NYSE">OIH</a>) is up 1.89% at $297.58</li>
</ul>
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Image: Shutterstock

Oil Prices Rally: Biden Confirms US 'Discussions' With Israel About Striking Iran Facilities

WIIM

Oil is trading higher following a report suggesting that President Biden said the US Is "discussing" potential support for Israel striking Iran's oil facilities when asked about the issue.

Macro Economic Events

Economics

Oil is trading higher following Iran's Tuesday attack on Israel, which has caused supply uncertainty.

ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UCO#NASDAQ">UCO</a>) shares are trading higher by 6.43% to $27.06 Tuesday. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are once again on the rise, and this time, the potential for <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs/broad-u-s-equity-etfs/24/10/41120592/iran-set-to-launch-ballistic-missile-attack-against-israel-report">significant conflict</a> is having a direct impact on financial markets, particularly in the energy sector.
The latest development comes from reports that Iran has launched a ballistic missile attack on Israel in retaliation for an airstrike that reportedly killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah.
As tensions escalate, the market is responding, and one of the major movers is UCO.
Why This Matters: UCO is a leveraged exchange-traded fund (ETF) designed to provide investors with twice the daily return of the Bloomberg WTI Crude Oil Subindex, which tracks the price movements of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil. 
Essentially, UCO moves in direct correlation with oil prices, but with twice the volatility. When oil prices rise, UCO magnifies those gains, making it a popular choice for investors looking to capitalize on significant shifts in the energy market. On the flip side, it also carries higher risks due to its leverage.
Read Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/personal-finance/24/10/41125098/suze-orman-says-the-personal-finance-of-americans-is-really-really-bad-even-though-the-stock-mar">Suze Orman Says The Personal Finance Of Americans Is &#8216;Really, Really Bad&#8217; Even Though The Stock Market Is Doing Great</a>
The ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel is particularly concerning for global oil markets because the Middle East remains a critical region for oil production and export. Iran, a major oil producer, controls access to the Strait of Hormuz, a vital chokepoint through which approximately 20% of the world's oil supply passes. 
Any conflict involving Iran could disrupt oil flows through the Strait, leading to supply shortages and sharp increases in crude oil prices. The threat of a ballistic missile attack by Iran increases the likelihood of a broader regional conflict, which would exacerbate fears of supply disruptions.
What Else: As reports of these imminent attacks surfaced, the price of crude oil surged, with investors rushing to hedge against the uncertainty. The United States Oil Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>), which directly tracks oil prices, saw a 3% increase, while UCO spiked even higher due to its leveraged nature. 
UCO's upward movement reflects the market's anticipation that if tensions in the Middle East continue to escalate, crude oil prices could soar further.
In addition to the direct impact on oil supply routes, increased military presence by the United States in the region could further strain relations with Iran, potentially leading to sanctions or military engagements that could disrupt oil exports from the region. In such a scenario, oil prices would likely surge even more dramatically, pushing UCO to higher levels.
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According to data from&nbsp;<a href="https://benzinga.grsm.io/register174">Benzinga Pro</a>, UCO has a 52-week high of $36.51 and a 52-week low of $22.88.

Why ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil (UCO) Is Up 6% Today

Macro Notification

Oil is trading higher following a report suggesting Iran could be preparing to attack Israel.

Oil futures edged up but then fell on Monday as <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/commodities/24/09/40754979/gas-station-charges-less-than-2-50-per-gallon-how-inflation-energy-prices-are-faring-now">a possible hurricane </a>makes its way toward the U.S. Gulf Coast, continuing last week&#8217;s losses.
Brent crude was up 16 cents, or 0.23%, to $71.22 a barrel at 8:15 a.m. ET while West Texas Intermediate crude futures were 19 cents, or 0.28%, higher at $67.86, Reuters reported.
By 10 a.m. ET, however, Brent crude slipped 26 cents, or 0.37%, to $70.80 a barrel by 10 a.m. ET while West Texas Intermediate crude futures were down 21 cents, or 0.3%, at $67.53.
Prices of Brent crude had dropped over the past six trading sessions, falling by more than 11%, or almost $9 a barrel, to post the lowest closing price since December 2021 on Friday.
Analysts noted that Monday&#8217;s brief rebound was driven in part by concerns over a potential hurricane approaching the U.S. Gulf Coast, along with supply disruptions from Libya, which have been pushing prices higher, according to Reuters.
Libya&#8217;s NOC (National Oil Corporation) late last week declared force majeure on several crude cargoes loading from the Es Sider port, with oil production curtailed by a political standoff over the central bank and oil revenue, four trading sources with knowledge of the matter told Reuters.
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A weather system in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is forecast to become a hurricane before it reaches the northwestern U.S. Gulf Coast, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said on Sunday. The U.S. Gulf Coast accounts for about 60% of U.S. refining capacity.
&#8220;A small recovery in prices is under way this morning, inspired by hurricane warnings that might threaten the U.S. Gulf Coast, but the wider conversation remains on where demand will come from and what OPEC+ can do,&#8221; said PVM analyst John Evans, according to Reuters.
The OPEC+ oil producer group last week held back a planned output increase of 180,000 barrels per day for October by two months in reaction to tumbling crude prices
Trading houses Gunvor and Trafigura are expecting oil prices to range between $60 and $70 a barrel due to sluggish Chinese demand and persistent oversupply, executives told the APPEC conference in Singapore on Monday.
Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley cut its Brent price forecast for the fourth quarter from $80 a barrel to $75, adding that prices are likely to remain around that level unless demand weakens further.
Price Action: Oil companies saw gains into Monday&#8217;s early-morning trading.
<ul>
<li>Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XOM#NYSE">XOM</a>) gained 0.56% to $113.28</li>
<li>Chevron Corporation (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CVX#NYSE">CVX</a>) rose 0.58% to $139.37</li>
<li>Marathon Oil Corporation (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MRO#NYSE">MRO</a>) picked up 0.52% to $26.86</li>
</ul>
Exchange-traded funds that hold oil stocks declined.
<ul>
<li>United States Oil Fund LP (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>) declined 1.15%</li>
<li>ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UCO#NYSE">UCO</a>) fell 2.13%</li>
<li>United States Brent Oil Fund LP (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BNO#NYSE">BNO</a>) declined 1.04%</li>
</ul>
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Image created using artificial intelligence via Midjourney.

Futures

Oil Prices Seesaw As Potential Storm Nears US Gulf Coast

ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil 2x Shares

지난 주말 <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/opec" target="_blank" rel="noopener">OPEC+</a>의 원유 생산 쿼터 증산 결정 이후 <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs" target="_blank" rel="noopener">에너지 ETF</a>가 다시 주목받고 있다. 일부는 긍정적인 분위기를 타고, 일부는 지정학적 불확실성에 대비해 투자하고 있다.
미국과 영국의 무역 관계 개선과 미중 관세 전쟁 해결 가능성으로 유가가 급등하면서 원유 선물 및 에너지 주식을 추종하는 ETF의 거래량과 변동성이 증가했다.
<ol>
<li>United States Oil Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>)USO는 원유 가격에 가장 직접적인 영향을 미치는 지표로, WTI 선물의 일일 가격 변동을 추적한다. 지난 한 주 동안 USO는 WTI의 3% 이상 랠리와 함께 상승했고 일일 거래량이 급증했다. 그러나 단기 선물에 노출되어 있는 이 펀드는 장기 선물이 단기 계약에 비해 프리미엄을 받고 거래될 때 수익률을 떨어뜨리는 콘탱고 리스크에 취약하다. 투자자들은 OPEC+의 증산이 곡선의 앞부분을 완화시키고 비용을 낮출지에 주목하고 있다.</li>
<li>SPDR S&amp;P Oil &amp; Gas Exploration &amp; Production ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XOP#NYSE">XOP</a>)XOP ETF는 시추, 탐사, 생산을 하는 업스트림 에너지 기업들로 구성된 바스켓에 노출된다. CNX 리소스(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CNX#NYSE">CNX</a>)와 엑손 모빌(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XOM#NYSE">XOM</a>)을 보유하고 있는 XOP는 유가 변동성의 영향을 크게 받는 경향이 있다. XOP ETF는 무역 협상과 생산 소식에 따라 3% 이상 상승했고, 이는 투자자들의 낙관론의 신호다. 탐사 기업은 안정된 수요와 투명한 글로벌 무역 흐름을 통해 이익을 얻을 수 있다.</li>
<li>ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UCO#NYSE">UCO</a>)모험을 즐기는 이들을 위해 UCO는 WTI 선물의 일일 성과에 2배 레버리지 노출을 제공한다. OPEC+의 생산 증가나 미국-이란 핵 회담과 같은 뉴스 이벤트를 포착하려는 단기 투기자들 사이에서 인기를 끌고 있다. 강한 상승세에서는 잠재적으로 수익성이 있지만, UCO는 하락세에서는 매우 힘들 수 있어, 경험이 많은 거래자에게 적합한 도구다. UCO 펀드는 목요일에 미영 무역 협정 발표 이후 5% 이상 상승했다.</li>
</ol>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">오늘 원유 시장에서는 무슨 일이?</h3>
OPEC+의 공급 조건 완화 가능성과 글로벌 무역 관계 강화로 시장 가격이 상승하면서 원유 ETF는 이러한 거시경제 줄다리기의 한가운데에 있다.
OPEC+는 주말에 시장 회복과 지정학적 필요성의 균형을 맞추기 위한 지속적인 전략의 일환으로 원유 생산 쿼터를 늘려 이전 공급량 감축의 롤백을 가속화할 것이라고 밝혔다. 로이터 조사에 따르면 베네수엘라, 이라크, 리비아의 생산 중단으로 4월 생산량이 소폭 감소한 이후 나온 이번 조치는 무역 환경이 회복세를 보임에 따라 수요 회복에 대한 그룹의 믿음을 보여주는 척도라고 할 수 있다.
한편, 글로벌 무역 외교의 새로운 모멘텀으로 인해 거시 경제 분위기가 크게 개선되었다. 트럼프 대통령이 "돌파구"라고 선전한<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/05/45293839/trump-starmer-strike-us-uk-trade-deal-steel-cars-beef" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> 미영 무역 합의</a>는 영국의 자동차 수출에 대한 관세를 대폭 인하하고 철강과 알루미늄에 대한 관세를 완전히 철폐하는 등 주요 상품에 대한 관세를 인하할 예정이다.
키어 스타머 영국 총리는 이번 합의를 "양국 간 무역 심화를 위한 촉매제"라고 설명했고, 하워드 러트닉 미국 상무장관은 미국 수출업체들에게 50억 달러의 새로운 기회를 제공했다고 말했다. 이 좋은 소식은 5월 10일 스위스에서 <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/05/45290148/oil-bulls-eye-rebound-as-us-china-talks-spark-hope-yardeni" target="_blank" rel="noopener">스콧 베센트 미국 재무장관과 중국 최고위 경제 관료</a>가 오랜 무역 긴장을 해결하기 위해 고위급 회담을 갖기 전에 나온 것이다. 이러한 협상을 종합하면, 관세 전쟁의 완화가 특히 에너지 집약적 산업에 대한 세계 수요를 다시 불러일으켜 유가와 원자재 연계 ETF를 지지할 수 있다는 희망을 불러일으키고 있다.
로이터의 또 다른 보도에 따르면 씨티 리서치(Citi Research)는 향후 3개월간 브렌트유 전망치를 55달러로 하향 조정했지만, 올해 말에는 배럴당 60달러 내외로 가격 수준이 안정화될 것이라고 주장했다. 이는 에너지 테마 ETF, 특히 선물 롤 비용에 대한 노출이 적고 원유 가치 사슬 전반에 걸쳐 다각화가 이뤄진 ETF에 희소식이다.
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<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/energy-sector" target="_blank" rel="noopener">미국 에너지 부문</a>은 유가가 치솟고 시장이 도널드 트럼프 정부 하에서 규제 완화 전환을 예상하면서, 2025년을 강력하게 시작해 다른 부문을 능가했다.
<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/oil" target="_blank" rel="noopener">주요 석유 회사</a>인 엑손모빌(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XOM#NYSE">XOM</a>), 쉐브론(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CVX#NYSE">CVX</a>), 쉘(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SHEL#NYSE">SHEL</a>)은 한때 적은 자산으로 초고속 성장하는 거대 기술 기업들과 대척점에 있었지만, 이제는 거대 기술 기업을 대상으로 가치를 창출하는 것을 목표로 하고 있다.
셰브론, GE 버노바(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GEV#NYSE">GEV</a>), 엔진넘버원(Engine No.1)은 2027년까지 <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/01/43308041/chevron-ge-vernova-engine-no-1-bet-big-on-ai-power-but-is-it-too-late" target="_blank" rel="noopener">인공지능(AI) 데이터센터</a>를 가동하기 위해 합작 투자를 시작했다. 그리고 엑손모빌은 탄소 포집 사업을 통해 저탄소 전력을 제공하는 데 주력할 것이다. 쉘은 태양 에너지와 배터리 저장 시설, 그리고 로드아일랜드에 있는 천연가스 공장을 활용하고자 한다.
블룸버그 통신에 따르면, 석유 대기업 3사의 4분기 수익은 화석 연료 공급이 수요를 초과하는 상황에 직면해 마진이 타격을 입었고, 이로 인해 공격적인 AI 데이터 센터에 대한 야심 찬 계획을 추진 중인 거대 기술 기업에 의존하게 되었다고 한다.
그러나 중국 딥시크의 <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/01/43390988/deepseek-and-nvidia-under-us-investigation-ai-market-shakeup-wipes-out-1-trillion-in-tech-value" target="_blank" rel="noopener">저렴한 저전력</a> AI 모델의 등장으로 마이크로소프트(NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>)가 지원하는 오픈AI가 다른 빅테크 기업과 경쟁하도록 했고, 잠재적으로 데이터센터의 필요성을 줄임으로써 석유 회사들에게 실망감을 안겨주기도 했다. 석유 회사들은 천연가스 발전에 대한 수요 증가에 베팅하고 있다.
이들 석유 대기업은 유가 수요의 정점을 앞두고 투자자들을 유인하기 위해 자사주매입과 배당금을 지급했으나 주주 수익 전략은 한계에 도달했다.
엑손모빌은 2024년 배당금과 자사주 매입에 360억 달러에 달하는 <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/25/01/43389620/exxon-mobil-q4-earnings-mixed-results-but-ceo-promises-profitable-growth-well-into-the-future" target="_blank" rel="noopener">잉여현금흐름</a> 전체를 지출했지만, 여전히 S&amp;P 500 지수 평균 대비 46% 할인된 가격에 거래되고 있다.
엑손은 2026년까지 연간 200억 달러 규모의 자사주매입 프로그램을 확대할 계획이고, 쉐브론은 올해 주주들에게 <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/01/43382627/chevron-falls-as-q4-profits-decline-amid-lower-oil-output-dividend-hike-offers-silver-lining" target="_blank" rel="noopener">270억 달러</a>의 현금을 돌려 주었다.
미국은 현재 세계 최대의 석유 생산국이지만 에너지 관련 주식은 S&amp;P 500 지수에서 3.2%에 불과다. 거대 석유 기업의 할인된 평가액 중 일부는 수익을 내지 못한 높은 자본 지출 때문이다.
에너지 전환으로 인해 시장은 배당금과 자사주 매입의 지속 가능성에 대해 불안해하고 있다. 원자재 가격 변동의 변동성도 현금 보유량이 많은 빅테크에 비해 화석연료의 가치를 떨어뜨렸다.
골드만삭스의 단 스트루이벤(Daan Struyven)은 도널드 트럼프의 캐나다에 대한 <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/market-summary/24/11/42212364/trumps-tariff-threat-to-canada-may-disrupt-oil-markets-inflate-prices-would-likely-raise-the-price-of-fuels-says-analyst" target="_blank" rel="noopener">25% 관세</a>가 미국의 연료 가격을 상승시키고 인플레이션을 유발할 것으로 예상한다. 운송 비용의 상승은 석유 유통 회사의 이익에도 영향을 미칠 수 있다.
스트루이벤은 최근 미국이 러시아, 이란, 베네수엘라의 석유 공급을 더욱 제한할 경우 <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/01/43036184/us-energy-sector-enjoys-strong-start-to-2025-analysts-eye-constructive-setup-for-chevron" target="_blank" rel="noopener">유가가 배랄덩 90달러</a>에 이를 것으로 예상한다고 말했다.
투자자들은 United States Oil Fund(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>), ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UCO#NYSE">UCO</a>) 펀드를 통해 원유에 투자할 수 있다.
주가 움직임: 월요일(3일) 엑손모빌은 0.24% 상승, 쉐브론은 0.10% 상승했고 쉘 주가는 1.89% 하락 마감했다.
이미지 출처: Shutterstock
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국제에너지기구(IEA)는 2025년 <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/oil" target="_blank" rel="noopener">세계 석유 수요</a> 전망을 소폭 수정해 <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-december-2024" target="_blank" rel="noopener">이전에 예상했던</a> 일일 110만 배럴에서 105만 배럴로 감소할 것으로 전망했다. 새로운 전망은 경제 상황 개선과 <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-january-2025" target="_blank" rel="noopener">연료 가격 하락</a>을 반영하면서 전 세계 수요를 일평균 1억 4천만 배럴로 예상한다.
2024년 4분기에는 석유 수요가 강하게 반등했다. 일일 150만 배럴이 증가하며 2023년 말 이후 가장 높은 성장률을 기록했다.
IEA는 이러한 급증을 연료 가격 하락, 북부 지역의 추운 날씨, 미국의 석유 화학 활동 증가 때문이라고 설명했다. 그러나 2025년 석유 수요 증가율은 2024년을 넘어 설 가능성이 있지만 2023년의 일일 2백만 배럴 이상의 증가율에는 미치지 못할 것이다.
한편, 석유수출국기구(OPEC)는 2025년에 <a href="https://momr.opec.org/pdf-download/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">일일 145만 배럴의</a> 더 높은 수요 증가를 예상하고 있다.
중국, 인도, 아프리카 국가를 포함한 주요 아시아 시장의 <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/commodities/24/11/41899890/opec-cuts-2024-oil-demand-forecast-for-fourth-straight-month-amid-chinas-economic-slowdown" target="_blank" rel="noopener">부진한 데이터로</a> 인해 OPEC은 2024년 석유 수요 증가 전망을 여러 차례 수정했다. 그럼에도 불구하고 OPEC 전망치는 월가 은행이나 사우디 아람코의 전망치보다 더 낙관적으로 보였다.
중국은 11월에 휘발유 소비 증가와 거의 3년 만에 최저치를 기록한 디젤 가격 하락에 힘입어 석유 수요가 크게 증가했다.
IEA는 중국 부동산 시장의 안정화 조짐이 석유 수요의 추가 회복을 뒷받침할 수 있다고 강조했다. 월스트리트저널은 중국이 2025년에 석유 소비량을 하루 22만 배럴 늘릴 것으로 예상하는데, 이는 2024년의 하루 18만 배럴 증가에 비해 크게 증가한 수치라고 <a href="https://www.wsj.com/business/energy-oil/iea-trims-oil-demand-outlook-but-still-expects-stronger-growth-this-year-a972c71b?mod=business_lead_pos4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">보도했다</a>.
최근 러시아의 에너지 부문과 해운 네트워크를 겨냥한 미국의 제재와 이란의 그림자 함대를 겨냥한 조치는 전 세계 석유 공급에 차질을 빚을 수 있다. 이러한 조치는 중국과 인도와 같은 주요 구매자가 대체 공급원을 찾도록 강요할 수 있다.
월스트리트저널은 브렌트유 가격은 배럴당 80달러, 미국 서부 텍사스산 중질유(WTI유)는 배럴당 77달러에 거래되며 공급 부족에 대한 시장의 우려를 반영하고 있다고 보도했다.
지정학적 압력에도 불구하고 2024년 12월 세계 석유 공급은 나이지리아와 리비아의 생산량 증가에 힘입어 소폭 증가했다. IEA는 2025년에 미국, 브라질, 캐나다 등 비OPEC+ 국가들이 주도하여 매일 180만 배럴의 공급 증가를 예상하고 있다. 그러나 제재나 기상 관련 장애로 인해 기존 석유 재고가 급격히 줄어들 수 있다고 경고했다.
주목할 만한 석유 주식으로는 엑손모빌(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XOM#NYSE">XOM</a>), 쉐브론(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CVX#NYSE">CVX</a>), 쉘(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SHEL#NYSE">SHEL</a>), 토탈에너지스(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TTE#NYSE">TTE</a>), 페트로브라스(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PBR#NYSE">PBR</a>), BP(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BP#NYSE">BP</a>)가 있다.
투자자들은 United States Oil ETF(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>) 및 ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil ETF(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UCO#NYSE">UCO</a>)를 통해 석유 시장에 노출될 수 있다.
사진 출처: William Potter, Shutterstock
Benzinga Pro의 독점 뉴스 및 도구로 수익률을 높이세요.
독점 속보 및 스캐너와 같은 Benzinga Pro의 강력한 도구 세트로 다른 트레이더보다 우위를 점하세요. <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/pro/register?t=be2bewe5mibe3bz3&amp;utm_source=bz-kor">여기를 클릭</a>하여 14일 무료 체험을 시작하세요.

이스라엘과 레바논 정부가 휴전 협정을 수용했다고 조 바이든 대통령이 화요일에 밝혔다.
&#8220;오늘 중동에서 좋은 소식을 전할 수 있게 되어 기쁘다,&#8221;라고 바이든이 말하며 이스라엘과 레바논 총리와 대화했다고 덧붙였다.
&#8220;이스라엘과 헤즈볼라 간의 파괴적인 갈등을 종식시키기 위한 미국의 제안을 두 정부가 수용했다고 발표하게 되어 기쁘다,&#8221;라고 바이든이 백악관 로즈가든에서 말했다.
바이든에 따르면, 휴전은 수요일 오전 4시에 발효될 예정이다.
헤즈볼라는 이 거래 발표에 즉각적으로 언급하지 않았다고 뉴욕 타임스가 보도했다. 레바논 정부는 헤즈볼라 무장 세력을 통제하지 않는다.
이 거래는 60일간의 휴전을 요구한다고 뉴욕 타임스가 보도했으며, 미국, 유엔 및 다른 기관들이 이를 감독할 것이다. 이스라엘은 레바논에서 군대를 철수하고, 헤즈볼라는 전투원들을 리타니 강 북쪽으로 이동시킬 것이다.
이스라엘과 헤즈볼라 간의 공습은 휴전 협상 동안에도 계속되었다.
무슨 일이 있었나: 단기 제안은 적대 행위를 60일 동안 중단하자는 것이지만, 지속적인 휴전을 목표로 하고 있다고 <a href="https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-hezbollah-ceasefire-deal-gaza-war-11-26-24-intl-hnk/index.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">CNN</a>이 한 이스라엘 관리를 인용해 보도했다.
베냐민 네타냐후 총리는 휴전의 세 가지 이유를 제시했는데, 그 중 하나는 이란으로 초점을 옮기고, 이스라엘 군을 보충하고, <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/23/10/35136071/israel-under-siege-unprecedented-hamas-attack-sparks-intense-clashes-netanyahu-says-we-are-at-war" target="_blank" rel="noopener">2023년 10월 7일</a>에 붙잡힌 인질을 석방하도록 하마스에 더 큰 압력을 가하는 것이다.
참고: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/24/11/42198266/crude-oil-moves-lower-dicks-sporting-goods-earnings-top-views">원유 가격 하락; 딕스 스포팅 구즈 실적이 예상치를 상회</a>
왜 중요한가: 모든 사람이 휴전이 효과적일 것이라고 확신하는 것은 아니다.
<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/11/26/world/israel-hezbollah-lebanon-cease-fire" target="_blank" rel="noopener">뉴욕 타임즈</a>에 따르면, 이스라엘의 국가안보 장관인 이타마르 벤그비르는 헤즈볼라를 방어하기 위한 "안전지대"가 레바논 내에 필요하다고 강조했다. 그렇지 않으면 두 나라는 미래에 또 다른 전쟁을 위험에 처하게 될 것이라고 말했다.
벤그비르는 휴전 결정이 그를 네타냐후의 연합에서 떠나게 만들 것이라고는 언급하지 않았다.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">시장 반응</h3>
United States Oil Fund(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>)를 통해 추적하는 유가가 화요일 0.65% 하락했다. 반면, VanEck Israel ETF(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>)를 통해 모니터링된 이스라엘 주식은 올해 들어 23.5% 상승했다.
다른 원유 ETF들은 화요일 오후 하락세를 보였다.
ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UCO#NYSE">UCO</a>)는 0.93% 하락했고, SPDR S&amp;P Oil &amp; Gas Exploration &amp; Production ETF(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XOP#NYSE">XOP</a>)는 0.75% 감소했으며, MicroSectorsTM Oil &amp; Gas Exploration &amp; Production 3X Leveraged ETNs(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/OILU#NYSE">OILU</a>)은 0.45% 하락했다.
지금 읽어야 할 것:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://kr.benzinga.com/news/usa/economy/%ED%8A%B8%EB%9F%BC%ED%94%84%EA%B0%80-%EB%AF%B8%EA%B5%AD%EC%9D%84-%EB%A9%95%EC%8B%9C%EC%BD%94%EC%99%80%EC%9D%98-%EB%AC%B4%EC%97%AD-%EC%A0%84%EC%9F%81%EC%9C%BC%EB%A1%9C-%EC%9D%B4%EB%81%8C%EA%B9%8C/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">트럼프가 미국을 멕시코와의 무역 전쟁으로 이끌까요? 클라우디아 셰인바움 대통령이 위협을 반박</a></li>
</ul>
이미지: Shutterstock
다른 트레이더들보다 30분 일찍 독점 시장 움직임 뉴스를 받아보세요. 
Benzinga Pro의 14일 무료 체험을 통해 독점 뉴스 기사를 이용할 수 있어 수백만 명의 다른 트레이더보다 먼저 실행 가능한 거래 뉴스를 얻을 수 있습니다. <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/pro/register?t=be2bewe5mibe3bz3&amp;utm_source=bz-kor" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">여기를 클릭</a>하여 14일 무료 체험을 시작하세요.

이스라엘과 헤즈볼라 사이의 휴전 합의가 수요일에 발효 - 바이든

이스라엘과 레바논의 무장단체인 헤즈볼라 간의 전투를 종료하기 위한 휴전 협정이 제안되었다.
무슨 일이 있었나: 이 단기 제안은 적대 행위를 60일간 중단하자는 것이지만, 지속적인 휴전을 의도하고 있다고 <a href="https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-hezbollah-ceasefire-deal-gaza-war-11-26-24-intl-hnk/index.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">CNN</a>이 한 이스라엘 관계자를 인용하여 보도했다.
베냐민 네타냐후 총리는 휴전의 세 가지 이유를 제시했는데, 그 중 하나는 이란으로 초점을 옮기고, 이스라엘 군을 보충하고, <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/23/10/35136071/israel-under-siege-unprecedented-hamas-attack-sparks-intense-clashes-netanyahu-says-we-are-at-war" target="_blank" rel="noopener">2023년 10월 7일</a>에 붙잡힌 인질을 석방하도록 하마스에 더 큰 압력을 가하는 것이다.
관련 기사: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/24/11/42198266/crude-oil-moves-lower-dicks-sporting-goods-earnings-top-views">원유 가격 하락; 딕스 스포팅 구즈 실적 예상 초과</a>
왜 중요한가: 모든 사람이 휴전이 효과적일 것이라고 확신하는 것은 아니다.
<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/11/26/world/israel-hezbollah-lebanon-cease-fire" target="_blank" rel="noopener">뉴욕 타임스</a>에 따르면, 이스라엘의 국가안보 장관인 이타마르 벤그비르는 헤즈볼라를 방어하기 위한 &#8220;안전지대&#8221;가 레바논 내에 필요하다고 강조했다. 그렇지 않으면 두 나라는 미래에 또 다른 전쟁을 위험에 처하게 될 것이라고 말했다.
벤그비르는 휴전 결정이 그를 네타냐후의 연합에서 떠나게 만들 것이라고는 언급하지 않았다.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">시장 반응</h3>
United States Oil Fund(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>)를 통해 추적하는 유가가 화요일 0.47% 하락했다. 반면, VanEck Israel ETF(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>)를 통해 모니터링된 이스라엘 주식은 올해 들어 22.5% 상승했다.
다른 원유 ETF들은 화요일 오후 하락세를 보였다.
ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UCO#NYSE">UCO</a>)는 0.93% 하락했고, SPDR S&amp;P Oil &amp; Gas Exploration &amp; Production ETF(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XOP#NYSE">XOP</a>)는 0.74% 감소했으며, MicroSectorsTM Oil &amp; Gas Exploration &amp; Production 3X Leveraged ETNs(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/OILU#NYSE">OILU</a>)은 0.45% 하락했다.
다음 읽어보기:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/24/11/42198583/will-trump-lead-us-into-trade-war-with-mexico-president-claudia-sheinbaum-rebukes-threats">트럼프가 미국을 멕시코와의 무역전쟁으로 이끌까요? 클라우디아 쉐인바움 대통령이 위협을 반박하다</a></li>
</ul>
이미지: Shutterstock
다른 트레이더들보다 30분 일찍 독점 시장 움직임 뉴스를 받아보세요. 
Benzinga Pro의 14일 무료 체험을 통해 독점 뉴스 기사를 이용할 수 있어 수백만 명의 다른 트레이더보다 먼저 실행 가능한 거래 뉴스를 얻을 수 있습니다. <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/pro/register?t=be2bewe5mibe3bz3&amp;utm_source=bz-kor" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">여기를 클릭</a>하여 14일 무료 체험을 시작하세요.

네타냐후, 헤즈볼라와의 휴전 합의 지지; 이스라엘 강경파, 레바논 내부 '보안 구역' 요구

워싱턴 포스트는 베냐민 네타냐후 이스라엘 총리가 바이든 행정부에게 이란의 원유나 <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/24/10/41298349/us-hits-iran-oil-exports-with-new-sanctions-after-israel-attack-crude-oil-holds-steady-at-75" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-google-interstitial="false">핵 시설</a>이 아닌 군사 목표물을 공격할 의향이 있다고 말한 후 월요일 오후 늦게 원유 가격이 급락했다고 보도했다.
상세 내용: 미국 관리와 <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/10/14/israel-iran-strike-nuclear-oil-military/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">이 문제에 정통한</a> 한 관계자에 따르면 네타냐후는 지난 수요일 조 바이든 대통령과의 통화에서 이란에 대한 보복 공격으로 군사 기반 시설을 목표로 삼을 계획이라고 말했다.
또한, 이란에 대한 이스라엘의 행동은 &#8220;미국 대선에 대한 정치적 개입&#8221;이라는 인식을 피하기 위해 설계될 것이라고 소식통이 전했다. 이란 원유 시설에 대한 공격은 에너지 가격을 상승시킬 수 있기 때문이다. 해당 소식통은 네타냐후가 두 정상 간의 통화에서 &#8220;더 절제된 입장&#8221;에 있다고 설명했다.
다음 읽어볼 기사: <a href="https://kr.benzinga.com/news/global/opec%EC%9D%98-%EC%88%98%EC%9A%94-%EC%84%B1%EC%9E%A5-%EC%A0%84%EB%A7%9D-%ED%95%98%ED%96%A5-%EC%A1%B0%EC%A0%95%EA%B3%BC-%EC%9D%B4%EB%9E%80%EC%9D%98-%EC%83%9D%EC%82%B0%EB%9F%89-%EC%A6%9D%EA%B0%80/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">OPEC 전망 하향 조정, 이란 생산 증가로 유가 2% 하락: 분석가 &#8220;네타냐후가 미국의 이란 수출 제한 약속에 의구심을 가질 수 있다&#8221;고 말하다.</a>
기타 사항: 서부 텍사스 중질유(WTI) 원유를 추적하는 United States Oil Fund(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>)은 OPEC이 2024년 글로벌 석유 수요 증가 예측과 2025년 글로벌 <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/10/41320277/oil-prices-drop-2-as-opec-cuts-forecast-irans-output-rises-analyst-says-netanyahu-m">원유 수요 성장 전망</a>을 낮춘 후 월요일 정기 거래 세션에서 2.01% 하락했다.
OPEC은 월요일에 발표한 월간 원유 시장 보고서에서 2024년 원유 수요 성장 추정치를 하루 106,000배럴(bpd) 하향 조정하여, 내년 세계 수요가 하루 193만 배럴 증가할 것으로 예상한다고 밝혔다. 또한, 2025년 수요 성장 전망은 하루 102,000배럴 하향 조정되어 전년 대비 160만 배럴 증가로 수정되었다.
ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UCO#NYSE">UCO</a>) 펀드는 월요일 정규 거래에서 세계 원유 수요 성장 전망 하향 조정에 따라 2% 이상 하락했으며, 애프터 마켓에서 $27.50로 4.51% 추가 하락했다.

추가로 읽어볼 기사:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/10/41277250/whats-going-on-with-first-solar-stock">퍼스트 솔라 주식에 무슨 일이 일어나고 있습니까?</a></li>
</ul>
사진: Shutterstock
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이스라엘이 이란의 석유나 핵 시설을 공격하지 않겠다고 밝힌 후 원유 가격 하락

목요일, 원유 가격이 5% 이상 급등했다. 이는 조 바이든 대통령이 미국이 이스라엘과 이란의 석유 시설에 대한 공격 가능성에 대해 논의했다고 언급한 후 발생한 일이다.
&#8220;우리는 그것에 대해 논의 중이다,&#8221;고 바이든이 기자들과의 대화에서 말했다.
바이든은 이란의 석유 시설을 타격하는 아이디어에 대해 긍정적이지 않은 듯 보였으나, 말을 중단했다: &#8220;그것은 조금… 어쨌든.&#8221; 아래 비디오를 참조하세요.
<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio">
<div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper"><iframe loading="lazy" title="Biden: Discussing Israeli strikes on Iran oil facilities &#x7C; AJ #shorts" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/InF5MnsXAt0?feature=oembed" width="500" height="281" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen"></iframe></div>
</figure>
한 기자가 바이든에게 &#8220;이스라엘이 이란에 보복하는 것을 ‘허용&#8217;할 것이냐&#8221;고 묻자, 바이든은 즉시 정정했다: &#8220;우리는 이스라엘을 ‘허용&#8217;하지 않는다. 우리는 이스라엘에게 조언한다.&#8221;
<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/23/10/35136071/israel-under-siege-unprecedented-hamas-attack-sparks-intense-clashes-netanyahu-says-we-are-at-war">2023년 10월 7일</a> 이후, 이스라엘은 가자 지구의 하마스와 레바논의 헤즈볼라와 전투를 벌이고 있다. 이들 두 그룹은 미국이 테러 조직으로 간주하는 단체이다.
관련 기사: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/10/41134015/jd-vance-tim-walz-debate-sets-a-different-tone-candidates-discuss-israel-iran-escalation-immigration">JD 밴스와 팀 월즈의 토론이 다른 분위기를 조성하다, 후보들이 이스라엘-이란 격화 논의</a>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">석유와 이스라엘-이란 갈등</h3>
이란은 세계에서 일곱 번째로 큰 원유 생산국이다. 이란은 헤즈볼라 무장 단체를 지원하며, 생산량의 약 절반을 해외로 수출한다.
<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/asia/24/08/40596334/asia-markets-mixed-europe-gains-crude-oil-falls-on-chinese-demand-concerns-global-markets-today-whil">원유 수요가 약세</a>를 보이는 중국은 이란의 주요 고객이다.
이란이 <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/global/24/10/41126038/iran-attacks-israel-with-missiles-middle-east-tensions-escalates-s-p-500-stocks-bitcoin-fall-as-oil">이스라엘을 미사일로 공격한 후</a> 원유 가격은 변동을 보였다. 10월 3일 기준, 서부 텍사스 중질유(WTI) 가격은 배럴당 73.83달러이다. 이는 전일 종가인 70.10달러에 비해 5.32% 상승한 수치이다.
브렌트유 가격은 배럴당 약 77.76달러로, 하루 동안 74.33달러에서 77.58달러 사이에서 변동했다.
바이든 하에 미국은 다른 어떤 미국 대통령 행정부보다 더 많은 원유를 생산하고 있으며, 비축유를 채우고 있다. 바이든 행정부는 이번 주에 추가로 <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/eurozone/24/10/41146905/geopolitical-risks-may-be-biggest-threat-to-markets-boe-says">600만 배럴의 원유를 확보</a>했다.
중동에서의 지속적인 폭력 사태는 호르무즈 해협에 위험을 초래한다. 이 해협은 탱커 교통의 3분의 1과 액화천연가스(LNG)의 5분의 1이 통과하는 중요한 경로이다.
미국과 그 동맹국들은 이 해협을 열어 두려는 결심을 하고 있을 가능성이 높다. 이 해협을 차단하려는 시도는 군사적 개입을 유발할 수 있다.
이란은 해협의 대부분의 북쪽 해안을 통제하고 있으며, 제재나 서방 국가들과의 갈등에 대응하여 통행을 차단하겠다고 위협한 적이 있다.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">시장 반응</h3>
현재까지 중동 갈등에 대한 시장 반응은 2022년 2월 러시아가 우크라이나를 침공했을 때에 비해 상대적으로 조용하다.
당시 원유 시장은 큰 변동성과 혼란으로 반응하여 글로벌 가격이 급격히 상승했다.
브렌트유는 2014년 이후 처음으로 배럴당 100달러를 초과했으며, 2022년 3월에는 배럴당 139달러로 잠시 급등하여 사상 최고가에 근접했다.
원유 관련 상장지수펀드(ETF)의 가격은 목요일 상승세를 보였습니다. 현재 가격은 다음과 같다:
<ul>
<li>United States Oil Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>)는 4.08% 상승하여 75.73달러에 마감했다.</li>
<li>Invesco DB Oil Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DBO#NYSE">DBO</a>)는 4.08% 상승하여 15.06달러에 마감했다.</li>
<li>SPDR S&amp;P Oil &amp; Gas Exploration &amp; Production ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XOP#NYSE">XOP</a>)는 3.29% 상승하여 139.81달러에 마감했다.</li>
<li>Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLE#NYSE">XLE</a>)는 1.76% 상승하여 92.32달러에 마감했다.</li>
<li>ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UCO#NYSE">UCO</a>)는 6.33% 상승하여 28.74달러에 마감했다.</li>
<li>VanEck Vectors Oil Services ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/OIH#NYSE">OIH</a>)는 2.19% 상승하여 298.46달러에 마감했다.</li>
</ul>
지금 읽어보세요:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/previews/24/10/41170128/jobs-report-preview-could-september-labor-data-shift-feds-interest-rate-path">일자리 보고서 미리 보기: 9월 노동 데이터가 연준의 금리 경로를 변경할 수 있을까?</a></li>
</ul>
사진 출처: Shutterstock
Benzinga Pro의 독점 뉴스 및 도구로 더 많은 승리를 거두세요 
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<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/pro/register?t=be2bewe5mibe3bz3&amp;utm_source=bz-kor" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">여기를 클릭</a>하여 14일 무료 체험을 시작하세요.

유가 상승: 바이든, 이스라엘과 이란 시설 타격에 대한 미국과의 '협의'를 확인

석유수출국기구(OPEC)와 그 동맹국들로 구성된 OPEC+는 이번 주말에 현재의 감산을 연장할 것으로 예상된다고, 대표단과 분석가들이 전했다.
What Happened: 6월 1일 비엔나에서 직접 만날 예정이었던 OPEC+ 동맹은 이제 6월 2일 가상 플랫폼으로 회의를 옮겼다. 화요일 CNBC <a href="/stock/2024/05/31/oil-alliance-opec-could-extend-production-cuts-this-weekend.html#NYSE">보도</a>에 따르면 이 그룹은 현재 하루 총 586만 배럴의 공급 삭감을 시행하고 있으며, 그 중 하루 200만 배럴은 올해 말에 만료될 예정이다.
시장 참여자들은 2분기 말까지 남은 하루 220만 배럴의 감산이 연장될지 예의주시하고 있다. 이는 특히 여름철에 수요가 증가할 것으로 예상되는 점을 고려한 것이다.
익명을 요구한 세 명의 OPEC+ 대표는 CNBC에 하루 220만 배럴의 공급 감소가 장기화될 가능성이 있다고 말했다. 이 그룹은 또한 개별 구성 국가의 할당량 준수를 모니터링하고 있으며 과잉 생산자에게 추가 삭감을 요청했으며 이라크와 카자흐스탄은 자세한 보상 계획을 가지고 있다.
OPEC+ 연합의 감산 연장 결정은 중국의 정유소 유지보수 마무리, 여름이 다가옴에 따른 미국 소비 증가 등의 요인으로 인해 예상되는 여름 수요 증가에 영향을 받는다.
&#8220;6월이 오면 중국은 정유소 유지보수로 거의 중단하게 될 것이다. 여름이 다가옴에 따라 미국 소비가 증가하게 됨으로 6월은 이미 마이너스 원유 잔고를 기록할 것이다. 그리고 8월은 긴축이 최고조에 달하는 달이다&#8221;라고 케플러(Kpler)의 주요 원유 분석가 빅토르 카토나(Viktor Katona)가 이 보고서에서 말했다.
원유 부문이 자신의 투자 전략과 일치하는지 확인하기 위해 시장에서 가장 수익성이 높은 오일 ETF에 관심이 있는 투자자는 다음 옵션을 고려할 수 있다:  Vanguard Energy ETF(ARCA:<a class="items-end ticker-link-wrapper inline-flex" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/vde" target="_blank" rel="dofollow noopener" aria-label="Go to Quote Page for VDE">VDE</a>), VanEck Oil Services ETF(ARCA:<a class="items-end ticker-link-wrapper inline-flex" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/oih" target="_blank" rel="dofollow noopener" aria-label="Go to Quote Page for OIH">OIH</a>), United States Oil Fund(ARCA:<a class="items-end ticker-link-wrapper inline-flex" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/uso" target="_blank" rel="dofollow noopener" aria-label="Go to Quote Page for USO">USO</a>), iShares U.S. Oil &amp; Gas Exploration &amp; Production ETF (BATS:<a class="items-end ticker-link-wrapper inline-flex" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/ieo" target="_blank" rel="dofollow noopener" aria-label="Go to Quote Page for IEO">IEO</a>), SPDR S&amp;P Oil &amp; Gas Equipment &amp; Services ETF (ARCA:<a class="items-end ticker-link-wrapper inline-flex" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/xes" target="_blank" rel="dofollow noopener" aria-label="Go to Quote Page for XES">XES</a>) 및  ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil (ARCA:<a class="items-end ticker-link-wrapper inline-flex" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/uco" target="_blank" rel="dofollow noopener" aria-label="Go to Quote Page for UCO">UCO</a>).
<div class="ticker-wrapper"></div>
왜 이 소식이 중요한가 (Why It Matters): 이스라엘군이 가자 지구의 <a href="/stock/2024/05/31/all-eyes-on-rafah-as-israeli-forces-enter-safe-zones-spain-ireland-and-norway-officially.html">안전</a>지대에 진입하는 등 최근 지정학적 사건도 원유 시장의 불확실성을 가중시켰다. 중동의 지속적인 긴장은 글로벌 인플레이션과 에너지 안보에 대한 우려를 불러일으켰고 OPEC+의 의사 결정에 더욱 영향을 미쳤다.
유가는 상반기에도 박스권을 유지했으며, 중동 지역의 발전으로 인해 급등할 가능성이 있다.
라이스태드(Rystad)의 호르헤 레온(Jorge Leon)은 지역적 확대로 인해 배럴당 최대 10달러의 위험 프리미엄이 추가될 수 있다고 지적했다. OPEC+ 대표자들은 CNBC에 가자지구 상황이 여전히 어느 정도 압박을 가하고 있지만 시장은 그 영향을 대부분 흡수했다고 말했다.
OPEC+는 또한 휘발유 가격 우려로 인해 이 동맹국들의 공급 삭감을 비난해온 미국과의 관계를 모색해야 한다. 지난주 바이든 행정부는 주요소 가격을 낮추기 위해 비축량에서 100만 배럴의 휘발유를 방출한다고 발표했다. 코로나19 팬데믹 기간 동안 전략적 석유 비축(SPR)에도 유사한 조치가 취해졌다.
그러나 한 OPEC+ 대표는 이러한 조치가 여름 가격 완화 이후 장기적인 영향을 미칠 가능성이 낮다고 지적했다. 이 보도에 따르면 미국은 일반적으로 비상 국가 비축 재고량을 보충하는 것을 목표로 하고 있다.
다음 읽기: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/24/05/39063828/elon-musk-slams-joe-biden-says-president-cares-a-lot-more-about-whether-tesla-is-unionized-over-?itm_source=parsely-api" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">일론 머스크, &#8220;조 바이든 대통령은 테슬라가 노조에 가입했는지에 대해 더욱 신경쓴다&#8221;고 비판</a>
<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/author/benzinga-neuro">Benzinga Neuro</a>를 사용하여 작성된 이 기사는 Kaustubh Bagalkote에 의해 편집되었습니다.

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