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이스라엘과 레바논 정부가 휴전 협정을 수용했다고 조 바이든 대통령이 화요일에 밝혔다. &#34;오늘 중동에서 좋은 소식을 전할 수 있게 되어 기쁘다,&#34;라고 바이든이 말하며 이스라엘과 레바논 총리와 대화했다고 덧붙였다.

이스라엘과 헤즈볼라 사이의 휴전 합의가 수요일에 발효 - 바이든

이스라엘과 레바논의 무장단체인 헤즈볼라 간의 전투를 종료하기 위한 휴전 협정이 제안되었다. 무슨 일이 있었나: 이 단기 제안은 적대 행위를 60일간 중단하자는 것이지만, 지속적인 휴전을 의도하고 있다고 CNN이 한 이스라엘 관계자를 인용하여 보도했다.

네타냐후, 헤즈볼라와의 휴전 합의 지지; 이스라엘 강경파, 레바논 내부 &#39;보안 구역&#39; 요구

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워싱턴 포스트는 베냐민 네타냐후 이스라엘 총리가 바이든 행정부에게 이란의 원유나 핵 시설이 아닌 군사 목표물을 공격할 의향이 있다고 말한 후 월요일 오후 늦게 원유 가격이 급락했다고 보도했다.

이스라엘이 이란의 석유나 핵 시설을 공격하지 않겠다고 밝힌 후 원유 가격 하락

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At least one aspect of Israel&#8217;s multifront war is expected to come to an end if the militant group Hamas comes to ceasefire terms <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/global">with Israel</a>.
What Happened: So far, Hamas has yielded at least two of Israel's demands for a cease-fire agreement in Gaza, according to a Thursday <a href="https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/israel-gaza-palestine-ceasefire-hostage-negotiations-d599e1d1">Wall Street Journal</a> report. 
The development comes after previous negotiations collapsed. And, just three months ago, certain <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/09/40955425/top-us-officials-skeptical-of-israel-hamas-cease-fire-and-hostage-deal-before-bidens-term-ends-repor">senior U.S. officials were skeptical</a> that a hostage-release deal would occur before the end of President Joe Biden‘s term.
The scenario has changed drastically. 
U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan spoke to the press in Tel Aviv Thursday after meeting with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel.
&#8220;Hamas started this war,&#8221; Sullivan said, optimistic that a ceasefire and hostage release &#8220;can happen.&#8221;
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Sullivan said he is set to visit Doha, Qatar and Cairo to close a deal &#8220;this month.&#8221; 
Hamas is reportedly willing to allow Israeli forces to stay in Gaza temporarily when the fighting stops, the WSJ reported. A list of hostages, including U.S. citizens, is expected to be released as part of a ceasefire pact.
Whether the ceasefire would last or be fully enforced remains to be seen.
Israel and Hezbollah were expected to <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/global/24/11/42199447/netanyahu-backs-cease-fire-deal-with-hezbollah-israeli-hardliner-calls-for-security-zone-inside-lebanon">pause fighting in Lebanon</a> last month, but <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/global/24/12/42279102/israel-hezbollah-trade-strikes-in-latest-sign-of-crumbling-ceasefire">attacks continued into December</a>. At least five people were killed in Israeli attacks on southern Lebanon in the last 24 hours, per <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/12/11/israeli-strikes-kill-five-in-southern-lebanon-amid-shaky-ceasefire">Al Jazeera</a>, citing the country's Health Ministry.
Hezbollah began firing rockets toward Israel after Hamas attacked <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/23/10/35136071/israel-under-siege-unprecedented-hamas-attack-sparks-intense-clashes-netanyahu-says-we-are-at-war">Israel on Oct. 7, 2023</a>.
Why It Matters: The ceasefire agreement would come as the balance of power in the Middle East changes.
This week, Israel seized the buffer zone as Bashar al-Assad&#8216;s rule in Syria collapsed. Al-Assad and his family were subsequently <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/24/12/42381587/bashar-al-assad-and-his-family-granted-asylum-by-russia-kremlin-source-says-always-spoken-in-favor-of-political-settlement">granted asylum by Russia</a>.
Assad&#8217;s regime was considered a lifeline to Hezbollah.
Traders can gain exposure to oil stocks that are affected by Middle East geopolitcal news via ETFs, or exchange-traded funds. According to <a href="https://pro.benzinga.com">Benzinga Pro</a>:
<ul>
<li>ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UCO#NYSE">UCO</a>) is up 0.27% Thursday. </li>
<li>United States Oil Fund LP (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>) dropped 0.16%.</li>
<li>SPDR S&amp;P Oil &amp; Gas Exploration &amp; Production ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XOP#NYSE">XOP</a>) decreased by 0.79%.</li>
<li>MicroSectorsTM Oil &amp; Gas Exploration &amp; Production 3X Leveraged ETNs (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/OILU#NYSE">OILU</a>) saw a 2.39% drop.</li>
</ul>
Israeli stocks, as monitored through the VanEck Israel ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ISRA#NYSE">ISRA</a>), are up 25.34% year-to-date.
Now Read:
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/12/42468190/defense-stocks-face-headwinds-as-trumps-doge-targets-spending-cuts-goldman-sachs-downgrades-general-dynamics-to-sell">Defense Stocks Face Headwinds As Trump&#8217;s DOGE Targets Spending Cuts: Goldman Sachs Downgrades General Dynamics</a></li>
</ul>
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Hamas Relents On Israeli Troops In Gaza, Paves Way For Potential Hostage Release

Oil markets in 2025 could face turbulence if President-elect Donald Trump reintroduces strict <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/iran">policies toward Iran.</a>
According to JPMorgan analyst Arun Jayaram, while non-OPEC supply growth is expected to stabilize prices, the geopolitical wildcard of renewed sanctions on Iran could send shockwaves through the market.
Investors in the United States Oil Fund LP (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>), the ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UCO#NYSE">UCO</a>) and the Invesco DB Oil Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DBO#NYSE">DBO</a>) may want to closely monitor their holdings.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Trump's Maximum Pressure: A Familiar Script?</h2>
During Trump's first presidency, his "maximum pressure" campaign drastically curtailed Iranian oil exports, cutting them to just 400,000 barrels per day. In contrast, under the Joe Biden administration, Iran's oil exports rebounded dramatically, surging to 1.6 million barrels per day by 2024. 
Jayaram suggests that Trump's potential return to sanctions could disrupt up to 1 million barrels per day of Iranian crude—an outcome that could unsettle the fragile equilibrium.
Read Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/12/42340255/opec-extends-oil-output-cuts-to-late-2026-what-it-means-for-markets">OPEC+ Extends Oil Output Cuts To Late 2026: What It Means For Markets</a>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Can OPEC+ Play Along?</h2>
Jayaram's analysis highlights a significant challenge for Trump's sanctions strategy this time: OPEC+. Previously, the oil cartel adjusted production to mitigate the impact of lost Iranian barrels. 
However, with shifting alliances and evolving market dynamics, securing similar cooperation may prove far more difficult for Trump 2.0. Without OPEC+ backing, the effectiveness of sanctions in stabilizing prices could be severely limited.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">What's Next For Oil Markets?</h2>
With non-OPEC supply projected to grow, the baseline for oil prices appears steady. Yet, the prospect of geopolitical brinkmanship introduces uncertainty. 
Jayaram emphasizes that the outcome hinges on Trump's ability to navigate international diplomacy and OPEC+ politics, both of which could determine whether oil markets face disruption or find balance.
The stage is set for a complex and unpredictable 2025, where Trump's Iran policies and shifting market dynamics could redefine the balance of power in oil markets. Investors should remain attentive to how these forces unfold.&#8221;
Read Next: 
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How Trump's Iran Policies Could Shape Oil Markets In 2025

Editor&#8217;s note: This story was updated to add missing detail in the introduction and further updated to reflect approval of a cease-fire deal by Israel&#8217;s cabinet and U.S. President Joe Biden&#8217;s Tuesday afternoon announcement. Stock price action in the story has been updated and exchange and ticker info for the ISRA ETF has been corrected as well. 
The governments of Israel and Lebanon have accepted a cease-fire deal, President Joe Biden said Tuesday. 
&#8220;Today I have some good news to report from the Middle East,&#8221; Biden said, adding that he spoke with the prime ministers of Israel and Lebanon. 
&#8220;I am pleased to announce that their governments have accepted the U.S. proposal to end the devastating conflict between Israel and Hezbollah,&#8221; said Biden, who made the remarks in the White House Rose Garden. 
The cease-fire is set to take effect at 4 a.m. Wednesday, Biden said.
Hezbollah has not immediately commented on the deal announcement, the New York Times reported. Lebanon&#8217;s government does not control the Hezbollah militant group. 
The deal calls for a 60-day truce, The New York Times reported, and would be overseen by the U.S., United Nations and others. Israel would withdraw forces from Lebanon and Hezbollah would move fighters to north of the Litani River.
Strikes between Israel and Hezbollah have continued during the cease-fire negotiations.
What Happened: The short-term proposal is to pause hostilities for 60 days but with the intention of a lasting truce, according to <a href="https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-hezbollah-ceasefire-deal-gaza-war-11-26-24-intl-hnk/index.html">CNN</a>, which cited an Israeli official. 
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu offered three reasons for the cease fire, one being to shift focus to Iran, replenish Israeli troops and put greater pressure on Hamas to release the hostages that were captured <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/23/10/35136071/israel-under-siege-unprecedented-hamas-attack-sparks-intense-clashes-netanyahu-says-we-are-at-war">on Oct. 7, 2023</a>.
See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/24/11/42198266/crude-oil-moves-lower-dicks-sporting-goods-earnings-top-views">Crude Oil Moves Lower; Dick&#8217;s Sporting Goods Earnings Top Views</a>
Why It Matters: Not everyone is so confident the cease-fire will work.
Per the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/11/26/world/israel-hezbollah-lebanon-cease-fire">New York Times</a>, Israel&#8217;s national security minister Itamar Ben-Gvir stressed the need for a "security zone" inside Lebanon to defend against Hezbollah. Otherwise, the two countries risk another war in the future, he said. 
Ben-Gvir did not indicate that a cease-fire decision would cause him to leave Netanyahu's coalition.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Market Reactions</h3>
Oil prices were trading down Tuesday, with the United States Oil Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>) 0.65% lower at last check. 
Israeli stocks, as monitored through the VanEck Israel ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ISRA#NYSE">ISRA</a>) are up 23.5% year-to-date.
Other oil ETFs were in the red at last check Tuesday afternoon.
ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UCO#NYSE">UCO</a>) fell by 0.93%, SPDR S&amp;P Oil &amp; Gas Exploration &amp; Production ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XOP#NYSE">XOP</a>) was down 0.75% ahead of the closing bell and MicroSectorsTM Oil &amp; Gas Exploration &amp; Production 3X Leveraged ETNs (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/OILU#NYSE">OILU</a>) saw a 0.45% drop, according to <a href="https://pro.benzinga.com">Benzinga Pro</a>.
Now Read:
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/24/11/42198583/will-trump-lead-us-into-trade-war-with-mexico-president-claudia-sheinbaum-rebukes-threats">Will Trump Lead US Into Trade War With Mexico? President Claudia Sheinbaum Rebukes Threats</a></li>
</ul>
Image: Shutterstock.

Ceasefire Deal Between Israel, Hezbollah Takes Effect Wednesday: Biden

Amid&nbsp;Donald Trump&#8216;s recent pledge to boost U.S. oil production significantly, questions arise about the necessity and impact of such a move.&nbsp;Vikas Dwivedi, a global energy strategist at&nbsp;Macquarie Group, has expressed skepticism regarding the need for an additional 3 million barrels per day.
What Happened: Dwivedi discussed the potential impact of Trump&#8217;s second term on the U.S. oil supply. Talking to&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/video/2024/11/25/us-oil-supply-increases-will-be-marginal-with-trump-2point0-macquarie.html">CNBC</a> &#8220;Squawk Box&#8221;&nbsp;on Monday, he said that anticipates only marginal increases in supply, despite Trump&#8217;s <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/11/42130859/as-trump-backs-drill-baby-drill-his-doge-co-lead-elon-musk-believes-all-energy-generation-will-be-solar-heres-what-ubs-recommends-after-election-dip">&#8220;Drill Baby Drill&#8221; stance.</a>
&#8220;We actually think there will be marginal supply increases from the U.S. The risks to supply will eventually be marginal but in the beginning of the administration, we think, the moves that they will make will increase supply risks,&#8221; Dwivedi said, adding the risks arising particularly through attempts to limit Iranian oil exports. He noted that the Ships Act aims to eliminate entities facilitating Iranian crude sales, but this could inadvertently reduce global oil supply.
Addressing Trump&#8217;s ambitious energy policy, Dwivedi questioned the necessity of increasing U.S. oil production.
&#8220;The real challenge is: does the world need that much oil? And if the U.S. did grow 3 million barrels a day during the Trump Administration, that&#8217;s like 750,000 a day over four years,&#8221; he explained
&#8220;I think the right question to ask energy executives is are you okay with $40 oil because I think that&#8217;s what you would end up with and are you okay with trying to figure out how to maintain production and um you know still be able to do the dividends and the share buybacks that are now not as discretionary as they used to be.&#8221;
Furthermore, Dwivedi highlighted the geopolitical risks associated with a rapid U.S. withdrawal of support for Ukraine. He warned that if Ukraine feels cornered, it might target Russian oil infrastructure, which could further impact the global oil supply.
See Also:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/24/11/42153356/is-warren-buffett-preparing-for-a-market-downturn-with-berkshire-hathaways-325b-cash-pile-analyst-says-internet-bubble-and-2008-crash-may-have-lessons?itm_source=parsely-api" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Is Warren Buffett Preparing For A Market Downturn With Berkshire Hathaway&#8217;s $325B Cash Pile? Analyst Says</a>
Why It Matters: Trump&#8217;s energy strategy, which includes faster permitting and weaker environmental regulations, aims to cut American energy costs significantly. However, experts have warned that these<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/09/40703958/trumps-drill-baby-drill-pledge-may-not-deliver-promised-energy-price-cuts-experts-warn"> promises may not materialize</a> due to the complexities of global and regional energy markets. Many oil drillers remain cautious about increasing production, opting instead to return cash to shareholders. This hesitancy is compounded by factors like weather patterns and global conflicts, which are not easily influenced by policy changes.
Meanwhile, Elon Musk, who has been announced to head the new Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), continues to <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/11/42130859/as-trump-backs-drill-baby-drill-his-doge-co-lead-elon-musk-believes-all-energy-generation-will-be-solar-heres-what-ubs-recommends-after-election-dip">advocate for solar power</a> as the future of energy generation, presenting a different vision from Trump&#8217;s fossil fuel-focused approach. Analysts also see an opportunity for investment in renewables, highlighting the sector&#8217;s potential for growth even amid political shifts.
Price Action: As per <a href="https://pro.benzinga.com">Benzinga Pro</a>, oil ETFs have seen slight gains in the past one month surrounding the presidential elections. As of Monday, ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UCO#NYSE">UCO</a>) increased 3.51%, SPDR S&amp;P Oil &amp; Gas Exploration &amp; Production ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XOP#NYSE">XOP</a>) increased by 10.78%, while MicroSectorsTM Oil &amp; Gas Exploration &amp; Production 3X Leveraged ETNs (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/OILU#NYSE">OILU</a>) increased by 20.99%.
Read Next:&nbsp;
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/24/11/42152947/satellite-images-reveal-north-korea-reportedly-receiving-illicit-oil-from-russia?itm_source=parsely-api" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Satellite Images Reveal North Korea Reportedly Receiving Illicit Oil from Russia</a></li>
</ul>
Image via Shutterstock

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Amid Trump's 'Drill Baby, Drill' Pledge, Strategist Predicts US Oil Supply Will See 'Marginal' Increase: 'Does The World Need That Much Oil?'

President-elect Donald Trump is considering appointing an &#8220;energy czar,&#8221; a role that would have the authority to nix environmental regulations and increase U.S.<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/24/11/41831044/how-to-play-the-trump-trade-for-ai-energy-taxes-analyst-says-5-stocks-could-shine"> fossil fuel production. </a>
What Happened: Trump is looking to appoint an overseer of deregulation efforts across various agencies, including the Department of Energy, Department of Interior, Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, and Environmental Protection Agency.
According <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/f75bd3f1-213f-4501-9005-58b42205ffff">to</a> the Financial Times, North Dakota Gov. and billionaire Doug Burgum is the frontrunner for this so-called energy czar position. 
Read More: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/biotech/24/11/41822473/trumps-potential-health-czar-robert-f-kennedy-jr-rattles-vaccine-stocks-shoot-first-reaction">Trump&#8217;s Potential &#8216;Health Czar&#8217; Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Rattles Vaccine Stocks: &#8216;Shoot First Reaction&#8217;</a>
Burgum initially competed in the Republican primary before endorsing Trump. He previously headed Great Plains Software, becoming its president in 1984, and selling the company to Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>) in 2001 for $1.1 billion. 
He has also served on the board of Atlassian Corp. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TEAM#NASDAQ">TEAM</a>) and most recently served as an energy advisor to Trump during his latest presidential campaign. 
Why It Matters: The news coincides with John Podesta, Biden&#8217;s lead climate diplomat, appearing at the UN climate summit in Baku, Azerbaijan, Monday. He <a href="https://www.axios.com/2024/11/11/top-biden-climate-diplomat-criticizes-trump-at-un-summit">called</a> the Nov. 5 presidential election outcome &#8220;bitterly disappointing.&#8221;
Over the past four years, the Biden Administration <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/personal-finance/24/05/38796993/bidens-1-6-trillion-investment-in-green-energy-sector-has-hit-stonewall-in-the-form-of-unspent-c">expanded clean energy initiatives</a> and <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/23/10/35240230/us-is-producing-more-oil-under-biden-than-at-any-point-under-the-trump-administration">produced more oil </a>than the previous Trump Administration.
Ali Zaidi, Biden&#8217;s national climate adviser, will likely be replaced with an energy czar as president-elect Trump targets current climate and energy regulations (i.e., vehicle emissions rules and lifting restrictions on oil and gas drilling). 
Analysts <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/11/41781921/what-does-trumps-victory-mean-for-ev-giant-tesla-and-the-big-3-automakers">have said </a>such changes could spell trouble for the clean energy and electric vehicle industry, but could be a boon for oil and gas companies.&nbsp;
EV-makers including Rivian Automotive, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/RIVN#NASDAQ">RIVN</a>) and Lucid Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/LCID#NASDAQ">LCID</a>) could see fewer sales if the Trump administration pulls rebates and tax incentives. However, oil and gas companies like Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XOM#NYSE">XOM</a>) and Chevron Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CVX#NYSE">CVX</a>) could see increased profits as Trump has vowed to lift restrictions on drilling and traditional energy production. 
Investors can also monitor the effects of potential policy changes in the broader EV sector through the iShares Self-Driving EV and Tech ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IDRV#NYSE">IDRV</a>) and oil through the ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UCO#NYSE">UCO</a>). 
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Image: Shutterstock

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Trump Looks To Undo Biden Climate Progress With Burgum As 'Energy Czar': Report

Oil-based exchange-traded funds (ETFs) experienced a significant decline, dropping over 4%, following Israel&#8217;s recent military strikes on Iran. The strikes, which occurred over the weekend, were reported as &#8220;limited&#8221; by local media, leading analysts to downplay the potential impact on oil supplies.
What Happened: Israel&#8217;s military targeted Iranian sites in three provinces on Saturday in response to a ballistic missile attack by Tehran on October 1. According to the Iranian news agency Tasnim, the strikes resulted in the deaths of four soldiers and caused &#8220;limited damages,&#8221; sparing oil, nuclear, and civilian infrastructure. Post the strikes, oil prices saw a sharp decline of more than 4% on Monday, CNBC <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/28/oil-slides-over-4percent-as-israels-attack-on-iran-unlikely-to-disrupt-supplies.html">reported</a> on Monday. I
See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/24/10/41538660/tesla-nvidia-led-market-rally-now-pressures-investment-funds-to-offload-shares-to-avoid-us-tax-l?itm_source=parsely-api" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Tesla, Nvidia-Led Market Rally Now Pressures Investment Funds To Offload Shares To Avoid US Tax Lawsuits</a>
Following the attacks, several oil ETFs recorded notable losses.
During pre-market hours on Monday, ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UCO#NYSE">UCO</a>) fell by 8.41%, United States Oil Fund LP (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>) dropped 4.69%, SPDR S&amp;P Oil &amp; Gas Exploration &amp; Production ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XOP#NYSE">XOP</a>) decreased by 1.81%, and MicroSectorsTM Oil &amp; Gas Exploration &amp; Production 3X Leveraged ETNs (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/OILU#NYSE">OILU</a>) saw a 4.54% drop, according to <a href="https://pro.benzinga.com">Benzinga Pro</a>.
Despite the tensions, Iran&#8217;s oil industry remains unaffected, with operations continuing as usual. Iran is responsible for up to 4% of the global oil supply, as per the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The attack comes after an Iran-backed Hamas assault on Israel on Oct. 7 last year.
Why It Matters: The recent strikes add to the ongoing geopolitical tensions that have kept energy markets on edge. Earlier this month, oil prices had already dipped by 2% after OPEC reduced its<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/10/41320277/oil-prices-drop-2-as-opec-cuts-forecast-irans-output-rises-analyst-says-netanyahu-m"> global oil demand growth forecast</a> for the third consecutive month. This was due to actual consumption data and slightly lowered demand expectations.
Experts had warned that an Israeli attack on Iranian oil facilities could significantly disrupt global oil prices. John Driscoll, chief strategist at JTD Energy Services, highlighted the potential for <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/10/41309234/israels-attack-on-iran-would-rattle-the-nerves-of-oil-market-says-expert">such actions to unsettle the market</a>, drawing parallels to past incidents like the 2019 drone attacks on Saudi oil fields.
Although Iran&#8217;s oil production is lower due to sanctions, any disruption could still lead to a price increase.
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Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of&nbsp;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/author/benzinga-neuro" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Benzinga Neuro</a>&nbsp;and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
Photo by William Potter on Shutterstock

Pre-Market Outlook

Oil ETFs Plunge Premarket After Israel's Strikes On Iran

World&#8217;s second largest oil consumer, China has urged Israel and Iran to reduce escalating tensions, emphasizing the need to avoid a &#8220;vicious circle&#8221; of conflict. This appeal was made during separate phone calls on Monday between China&#8217;s top diplomat Wang Yi and his counterparts from both nations.
What Happened: China is actively mediating in the Middle East. Wang Yi also engaged in discussions with Saudi Arabian Foreign Vice-Minister Waleed bin Abdulkarim El-Khereiji. During a call with Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz, Wang expressed China&#8217;s deep concern over the escalating tensions with Iran, stressing that renewed conflict is not beneficial for any nation, South China Morning Post <a href="https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3282414/china-calls-israel-and-iran-avoid-falling-vicious-circle?module=top_story&amp;pgtype=homepage">reported</a> on Tuesday.
Wang Yi urged for an &#8220;immediate, complete and permanent&#8221; ceasefire in Gaza, highlighting the importance of releasing hostages and returning to the &#8220;two-state solution&#8221; for lasting peace. Katz, in a post on X, stated that he informed Wang of Iran&#8217;s role in destabilizing the region and expressed expectations for China to maintain a balanced stance.
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In a separate call, Iranian Foreign Minister Seyyed Abbas Araghchi conveyed Tehran&#8217;s concerns about the risk of further conflict escalation. He urged caution from Israel and welcomed China&#8217;s mediation efforts to restore regional peace and security.
Why It Matters: The call for de-escalation by China comes amid a backdrop of fluctuating oil prices and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Recently, oil prices fell over 1% due to concerns over <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/asia/24/10/41257792/oil-dips-to-73-as-china-withholds-stimulus-biden-attempts-to-contain-netanyahu-over-israels-attack-o">weaker demand from China.</a> This occurred after China withheld aggressive fiscal stimulus that analysts had anticipated.
Additionally, <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/10/41320277/oil-prices-drop-2-as-opec-cuts-forecast-irans-output-rises-analyst-says-netanyahu-m">oil prices dropped 2%</a> after OPEC reduced its global oil demand growth estimate for the third consecutive month. This decline in oil prices reflects broader concerns about the Middle East&#8217;s geopolitical stability, particularly as Israel has not yet retaliated against Iran following a recent attack involving over 180 ballistic missiles.
Price Action: At the time of writing on Tuesday during the pre-market, United States Oil Fund, LP (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>) was down by 4.81%, Invesco DB Oil Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DBO#NYSE">DBO</a>) was trading 5.11% lower and ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UCO#NYSE">UCO</a>) was down by 8.13%, according to <a href="https://pro.benzinga.com">Benzinga Pro</a>.
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Image via Shutterstock
This story was generated using <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/author/benzinga-neuro">Benzinga Neuro</a> and edited by <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/Pooja-Rajkumari" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Pooja Rajkumari</a>

After Pulling Down Oil Prices With Weak Demand, China Urges Israel, Iran To Avoid 'Vicious Circle' Of Conflict

Crude oil prices dropped sharply late Monday afternoon after The Washington Post reported Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told the Biden administration he is willing to strike military targets rather than oil or <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/24/10/41298349/us-hits-iran-oil-exports-with-new-sanctions-after-israel-attack-crude-oil-holds-steady-at-75">nuclear facilities in Iran.&nbsp;</a>
The Details: Netanyahu told President Joe Biden in a call last Wednesday he is planning to target military infrastructure in a retaliatory strike against Iran, according to a U.S. official and an official <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/10/14/israel-iran-strike-nuclear-oil-military/">familiar with the matter</a>. 
The sources also said Israel's action against Iran will be designed to avoid any perception of "political interference in the U.S. elections" noting an attack on Iranian oil facilities could send energy prices higher. The official familiar with the matter described Netanyahu as being in a "more moderated place" during the call between the two leaders.&nbsp;
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What Else: The United States Oil Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>) which tracks West Texas Intermediate (WTI) light crude fell 2.01% in Monday's regular trading session after OPEC lowered its 2024 global <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/10/41320277/oil-prices-drop-2-as-opec-cuts-forecast-irans-output-rises-analyst-says-netanyahu-m">oil-demand growth forecast</a> and its 2025 global oil-demand growth forecast. 
In its Monthly Oil Market Report <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/10/41320277/oil-prices-drop-2-as-opec-cuts-forecast-irans-output-rises-analyst-says-netanyahu-m">released on Monday</a>, OPEC reduced its 2024 oil demand growth estimate by 106,000 barrels per day (bpd), now expecting global demand to increase by 1.93 million bpd next year. Additionally, the forecast for 2025 demand growth was lowered by 102,000 bpd to 1.6 million bpd year-over-year.
The ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UCO#NYSE">UCO</a>) fund fell more than 2% in regular trading Monday following the lower global oil-demand growth forecast and is down another 4.51% at $27.50 after-hours. 
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Photo: Shutterstock

Oil Prices Drop After Netanyahu Says Israel Will Attack Military, Not Oil Or Nuclear Targets In Iran

Amid rising geopolitical tensions, energy markets are on edge as experts warn of potential disruptions. An Israeli military action targeting Iranian oil facilities could significantly impact global oil prices, according to industry analysts.
What Happened: John Driscoll, chief strategist at JTD Energy Services, highlighted the potential impact of an Israeli attack on Iranian oil facilities. Driscoll noted that such an event could significantly influence oil prices, drawing parallels to past incidents like the 2019 drone attacks on Saudi Arabian oil fields, according to <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/video/2024/10/14/israel-attack-on-iran-oil-bases-would-have-dramatic-effect-strategist.html">CNBC</a> on Monday.
Driscoll explained that while Iran&#8217;s oil production is around 2.5 to 3 million barrels per day, its exports are considerably lower due to sanctions. A disruption in Iranian exports, even by half a million barrels per day, could lead to a substantial price increase. He emphasized that Iran, though not as pivotal as Saudi Arabia or Abu Dhabi, still plays a role that could unsettle the market.
&#8220;While Iran is not as critical a player as say the Saudis or Abu Dhabi or Kuwait, you know still this is going to have a dramatic effect. It&#8217;s going to rattle the nerves of the oil markets,&#8221; Driscoll said.
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The strategist remarked that traders thrive on market volatility, and such geopolitical tensions could provide them with lucrative opportunities. Driscoll warned that the oil market should brace for a turbulent period in the coming weeks, as any military action could create significant fluctuations in oil prices.
Why It Matters: The potential for an Israeli strike on Iranian oil facilities comes amid heightened tensions in the region. Earlier this month, President Joe Biden confirmed that the<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/24/10/41172781/oil-prices-rally-biden-confirms-us-discussions-with-israel-about-striking-iran-facilities"> U.S. had discussions with Israel </a>about targeting Iran&#8217;s oil infrastructure, causing oil prices to surge by over 5%. Although Biden appeared hesitant about the idea, the mere possibility has already influenced market dynamics.
Additionally, the U.S. recently imposed new sanctions on Iran&#8217;s petroleum and petrochemical sectors following Iran&#8217;s attacks on Israel, aiming to cut off revenue streams that <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/24/10/41298349/us-hits-iran-oil-exports-with-new-sanctions-after-israel-attack-crude-oil-holds-steady-at-75">fund destabilizing activities</a> in the Middle East. These developments underscore the fragile state of the oil market, where geopolitical events can lead to significant price volatility.
Price Action: On Monday, during the pre-market hours, oil ETFs were showing mixed activity as per <a href="https://pro.benzinga.com">Benzinga Pro</a>. United States Oil Fund, LP (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>) was down by 2.37% while ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Crude Oil (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SCO#NYSE">SCO</a>) was up by 4.40%. Meanwhile, ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UCO#NYSE">UCO</a>) was trading 4.29% lower. 
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Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of&nbsp;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/author/benzinga-neuro" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Benzinga Neuro</a>&nbsp;and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
Photo by Hamara via Shutterstock

Potential Israeli Attack On Iran Would 'Rattle The Nerves Of Oil Market,' Says Expert

Oil is trading more than 5% higher Thursday on the heels of President Joe Biden&#8216;s statement that the U.S. spoke with Israel about a possible attack on Iran's oil facilities.
"We're in discussions about that,&#8221; Biden said during an interaction with reporters. 
Biden seemingly indicated he wasn&#8217;t partial to the idea of striking at Iran&#8217;s oil facilities, before cutting himself off: &#8220;I think that would be a little&#8230; anyway.&#8221; See video below.
<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio"> 
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<iframe loading="lazy" title="Biden: Discussing Israeli strikes on Iran oil facilities &#x7C; AJ #shorts" width="500" height="281" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/InF5MnsXAt0?feature=oembed" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" allowfullscreen></iframe>
</div>
</figure>
When one reporter asked whether Biden would &#8220;allow&#8221; Israel to retaliate against Iran, Biden swiftly corrected him: &#8220;First of all, we don&#8217;t &#8216;allow&#8217; Israel. We advise Israel.&#8221;
<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/23/10/35136071/israel-under-siege-unprecedented-hamas-attack-sparks-intense-clashes-netanyahu-says-we-are-at-war">Since Oct. 7, 2023</a>, Israel has been fighting Hamas in Gaza as well as Hezbollah in Lebanon. Both groups are considered terrorist organizations by the U.S. 
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<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Oil And The Israel-Iran Conflict</h3>
Iran is the seventh-largest oil producer in the world. The country, which backs the Hezbollah militant group, exports around half its production abroad. 
China, where <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/asia/24/08/40596334/asia-markets-mixed-europe-gains-crude-oil-falls-on-chinese-demand-concerns-global-markets-today-whil">oil demand is weak</a>, is its main customer.
Since Iran's <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/global/24/10/41126038/iran-attacks-israel-with-missiles-middle-east-tensions-escalates-s-p-500-stocks-bitcoin-fall-as-oil">missile attack on Israel</a> on Monday, the price of barrels has fluctuated. As of Oct. 3, the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is $73.83 per barrel. This reflects a 5.32% increase from the previous day&#8217;s close of $70.10.
The price of Brent crude is approximately $77.76 per barrel. It has fluctuated within a range of $74.33 to $77.58 for the day.
The U.S., which is producing more oil under Biden than any other U.S. presidential administration, has been filling its reserves. The Biden administration acquired an additional <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/eurozone/24/10/41146905/geopolitical-risks-may-be-biggest-threat-to-markets-boe-says">6 million barrels of crude</a> just this week.
It&#8217;s worth noting that ongoing violence in the Middle East puts the Straits of Hormuz at risk. A third of tanker traffic and a fifth of LNG frozen gas is transported through that passageway. 
The U.S. and its allies are likely determined to keep the Strait open due to its strategic importance. Any attempt to block the Strait could provoke military intervention.
Iran controls much of the northern coastline of the Strait and has previously threatened to block the passage in response to sanctions or conflicts with Western countries. 
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Market Reaction</h3>
So far, market reaction to the Middle East conflict is relatively mute compared to February 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine.
At the time, the oil market reacted with significant volatility and disruption, leading to a sharp rise in global prices. 
Brent crude, the global benchmark, surged above $100 per barrel for the first time since 2014, and by March 2022, it had briefly spiked to $139 per barrel, near the all-time high.
Oil-related exchange-traded funds, or ETFs, were trending up at last check Thursday afternoon. Here&#8217;s where they stand: 
<ul>
<li>United States Oil Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>) is up 4.05% to $75.71</li>
<li>Invesco DB Oil Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DBO#NYSE">DBO</a>) is up 4.08% at $15.06</li>
<li>SPDR S&amp;P Oil &amp; Gas Exploration &amp; Production ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XOP#NYSE">XOP</a>) is up 3.1% at $139.56</li>
<li>Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLE#NYSE">XLE</a>) up 1.65% at $92.22</li>
<li>ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UCO#NYSE">UCO</a>) is up 6.59% at $28.81</li>
<li>VanEck Vectors Oil Services ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/OIH#NYSE">OIH</a>) is up 1.89% at $297.58</li>
</ul>
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Oil Prices Rally: Biden Confirms US 'Discussions' With Israel About Striking Iran Facilities

WIIM

Oil is trading higher following a report suggesting that President Biden said the US Is "discussing" potential support for Israel striking Iran's oil facilities when asked about the issue.

Macro Economic Events

Economics

Oil is trading higher following Iran's Tuesday attack on Israel, which has caused supply uncertainty.

ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UCO#NASDAQ">UCO</a>) shares are trading higher by 6.43% to $27.06 Tuesday. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are once again on the rise, and this time, the potential for <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs/broad-u-s-equity-etfs/24/10/41120592/iran-set-to-launch-ballistic-missile-attack-against-israel-report">significant conflict</a> is having a direct impact on financial markets, particularly in the energy sector.
The latest development comes from reports that Iran has launched a ballistic missile attack on Israel in retaliation for an airstrike that reportedly killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah.
As tensions escalate, the market is responding, and one of the major movers is UCO.
Why This Matters: UCO is a leveraged exchange-traded fund (ETF) designed to provide investors with twice the daily return of the Bloomberg WTI Crude Oil Subindex, which tracks the price movements of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil. 
Essentially, UCO moves in direct correlation with oil prices, but with twice the volatility. When oil prices rise, UCO magnifies those gains, making it a popular choice for investors looking to capitalize on significant shifts in the energy market. On the flip side, it also carries higher risks due to its leverage.
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The ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel is particularly concerning for global oil markets because the Middle East remains a critical region for oil production and export. Iran, a major oil producer, controls access to the Strait of Hormuz, a vital chokepoint through which approximately 20% of the world's oil supply passes. 
Any conflict involving Iran could disrupt oil flows through the Strait, leading to supply shortages and sharp increases in crude oil prices. The threat of a ballistic missile attack by Iran increases the likelihood of a broader regional conflict, which would exacerbate fears of supply disruptions.
What Else: As reports of these imminent attacks surfaced, the price of crude oil surged, with investors rushing to hedge against the uncertainty. The United States Oil Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>), which directly tracks oil prices, saw a 3% increase, while UCO spiked even higher due to its leveraged nature. 
UCO's upward movement reflects the market's anticipation that if tensions in the Middle East continue to escalate, crude oil prices could soar further.
In addition to the direct impact on oil supply routes, increased military presence by the United States in the region could further strain relations with Iran, potentially leading to sanctions or military engagements that could disrupt oil exports from the region. In such a scenario, oil prices would likely surge even more dramatically, pushing UCO to higher levels.
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According to data from&nbsp;<a href="https://benzinga.grsm.io/register174">Benzinga Pro</a>, UCO has a 52-week high of $36.51 and a 52-week low of $22.88.

Why ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil (UCO) Is Up 6% Today

Macro Notification

Oil is trading higher following a report suggesting Iran could be preparing to attack Israel.

Oil futures edged up but then fell on Monday as <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/commodities/24/09/40754979/gas-station-charges-less-than-2-50-per-gallon-how-inflation-energy-prices-are-faring-now">a possible hurricane </a>makes its way toward the U.S. Gulf Coast, continuing last week&#8217;s losses.
Brent crude was up 16 cents, or 0.23%, to $71.22 a barrel at 8:15 a.m. ET while West Texas Intermediate crude futures were 19 cents, or 0.28%, higher at $67.86, Reuters reported.
By 10 a.m. ET, however, Brent crude slipped 26 cents, or 0.37%, to $70.80 a barrel by 10 a.m. ET while West Texas Intermediate crude futures were down 21 cents, or 0.3%, at $67.53.
Prices of Brent crude had dropped over the past six trading sessions, falling by more than 11%, or almost $9 a barrel, to post the lowest closing price since December 2021 on Friday.
Analysts noted that Monday&#8217;s brief rebound was driven in part by concerns over a potential hurricane approaching the U.S. Gulf Coast, along with supply disruptions from Libya, which have been pushing prices higher, according to Reuters.
Libya&#8217;s NOC (National Oil Corporation) late last week declared force majeure on several crude cargoes loading from the Es Sider port, with oil production curtailed by a political standoff over the central bank and oil revenue, four trading sources with knowledge of the matter told Reuters.
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A weather system in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is forecast to become a hurricane before it reaches the northwestern U.S. Gulf Coast, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said on Sunday. The U.S. Gulf Coast accounts for about 60% of U.S. refining capacity.
&#8220;A small recovery in prices is under way this morning, inspired by hurricane warnings that might threaten the U.S. Gulf Coast, but the wider conversation remains on where demand will come from and what OPEC+ can do,&#8221; said PVM analyst John Evans, according to Reuters.
The OPEC+ oil producer group last week held back a planned output increase of 180,000 barrels per day for October by two months in reaction to tumbling crude prices
Trading houses Gunvor and Trafigura are expecting oil prices to range between $60 and $70 a barrel due to sluggish Chinese demand and persistent oversupply, executives told the APPEC conference in Singapore on Monday.
Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley cut its Brent price forecast for the fourth quarter from $80 a barrel to $75, adding that prices are likely to remain around that level unless demand weakens further.
Price Action: Oil companies saw gains into Monday&#8217;s early-morning trading.
<ul>
<li>Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XOM#NYSE">XOM</a>) gained 0.56% to $113.28</li>
<li>Chevron Corporation (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CVX#NYSE">CVX</a>) rose 0.58% to $139.37</li>
<li>Marathon Oil Corporation (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MRO#NYSE">MRO</a>) picked up 0.52% to $26.86</li>
</ul>
Exchange-traded funds that hold oil stocks declined.
<ul>
<li>United States Oil Fund LP (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>) declined 1.15%</li>
<li>ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UCO#NYSE">UCO</a>) fell 2.13%</li>
<li>United States Brent Oil Fund LP (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BNO#NYSE">BNO</a>) declined 1.04%</li>
</ul>
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</ul>
Image created using artificial intelligence via Midjourney.

Futures

Oil Prices Seesaw As Potential Storm Nears US Gulf Coast

Oil prices fell on Wednesday after OPEC+ sources said that it was talking about holding back a plan <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/09/40703958/trumps-drill-baby-drill-pledge-may-not-deliver-promised-energy-price-cuts-experts-warn">to boost output</a> in October due to concerns over demand and production possibly coming back to Libya.
Brent crude futures were down 53 cents, or 0.72% , to $73.20 as of 12:15 pm ET Wednesday. 
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were down 57 cents, or 0.81%, to $69.77. 
Both benchmarks had earlier lost $1 and then bounced back to gain $1 from Tuesday&#8217;s close, following the OPEC+ news.
A broader sell-off had seen prices for Brent crude futures drop as much as 11%, or about $9, in a little over a week to reach a low of $72.63 on Wednesday, Reuters reported. Benchmark prices fell more than 4% Tuesday.
Weak data from the U.S. and China had boosted forecasts of a weaker global economy and oil demand that triggered a broader decline&nbsp;in world markets.
Read Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/24/09/40687828/brent-crude-under-pressure-amid-supply-expansion-concerns">Brent Crude Under Pressure Amid Supply Expansion Concerns</a>
At the same time, traders believed a dispute stopping Libyan oil exports may come to an end and therefore increase crude oil supply.
These factors have concerned OPEC+ over market volatility after the group planned to boost output in October, making it consider delaying the hikes.
 China&#8217;s manufacturing activity fell to a six-month low in August as growth in new home prices&nbsp;cooled off, according to data released Saturday.
Meanwhile, in the U.S., Institute for Supply Management data on Tuesday showed manufacturing stayed soft.
Reports from the American Petroleum Institute are due at 4:30 p.m. ET Wednesday and from the Energy Information Administration at 11 a.m. ET Thursday.
Price Action: Oil companies and exchange traded funds that hold their stocks trended downward into Wednesday&#8217;s early-afternoon trading.
<ul>
<li>Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XOM#NYSE">XOM</a>) slipped 0.62% to $114.75 </li>
<li>Chevron Corporation (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CVX#NYSE">CVX</a>) declined 0.82% to $143.48</li>
<li>Shell plc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SHEL#NYSE">SHEL</a>) fell 0.80% to $68.83</li>
<li>United States Oil Fund LP (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>) slid 1.31% to $70.16</li>
<li>ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UCO#NYSE">UCO</a>) lost 2.33% to $25.58</li>
<li>United States Brent Oil Fund LP (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BNO#NYSE">BNO</a>) declined 1.11% to $28.40</li>
</ul>
Read Now: 
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/24/09/40714894/stocks-rebound-chipmakers-halt-bloodbath-as-traders-upgrade-rate-cut-wagers-tesla-rises-do">Stocks Rebound, Chipmakers Halt Bloodbath As Traders Upgrade Rate Cut Wagers; Tesla Rises, Dollar Tree In Free Fall: What&#8217;s Driving Markets Wednesday?</a></li>
</ul>
Photo: Shutterstock

SHEL

Oil Prices Retreat As OPEC+ Discusses Delay In Production Hikes

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, collectively known as OPEC+, are expected to extend their current production cuts this weekend, as per delegates and analysts.
What Happened: The OPEC+ alliance, which was scheduled to meet in person in Vienna on Jun. 1, has now moved the meeting to a virtual platform on Jun. 2. The group is currently implementing a combined 5.86 million barrels per day of supply cuts, with 2 million barrels per day set to expire at the end of this year, as per a CNBC <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/31/oil-alliance-opec-could-extend-production-cuts-this-weekend.html?taid=66595f9eb890320001ff036f&amp;utm_campaign=trueanthem&amp;utm_medium=social&amp;utm_source=twitter%7Cmain">report</a> on Tuesday.
Market participants are closely watching whether the remaining 2.2 million barrels per day of cuts, which are in place until the end of the second quarter, will be extended. This is in light of projected demand increases, particularly in the summer months.
Three OPEC+ delegates, speaking on the condition of anonymity, told CNBC that the 2.2 million-barrels-per-day supply reductions are likely to be prolonged. The group is also monitoring individual members&#8217; quota compliance and has requested overproducers to implement additional cuts, with Iraq and Kazakhstan having detailed compensation plans.
The OPEC+ coalition&#8217;s decision to extend production cuts is influenced by the anticipated rise in summer demand, driven by factors such as the conclusion of China&#8217;s refinery maintenance and increasing U.S. consumption as summer approaches. 
"Come June, China would be largely out of refinery maintenance, U.S. consumption is improving as summer moves closer, so June should already see negative crude balances. And then August is the peak month for tightness," Viktor Katona, lead crude analyst at Kpler, said according to the report.
Investors interested in some of the most profitable oil ETFs on the market to determine if the oil sector aligns with their investment strategy might consider the following options: Vanguard Energy ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VDE#NYSE">VDE</a>), VanEck Oil Services ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/OIH#NYSE">OIH</a>), United States Oil Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>), iShares U.S. Oil &amp; Gas Exploration &amp; Production ETF (BATS:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IEO#BATS">IEO</a>), SPDR S&amp;P Oil &amp; Gas Equipment &amp; Services ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XES#NYSE">XES</a>), and ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UCO#NYSE">UCO</a>).
See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/05/39084577/elon-musk-mocks-steve-jobs-agrees-apple-could-be-light-years-ahead-of-competition-if-it-embraced-ope?itm_source=parsely-api" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Elon Musk Mocks Steve Jobs, Agrees Apple Could Be &#8216;Light Years&#8217; Ahead Of Competition If It Embraced Open</a>
Why It Matters: Recent geopolitical events, such as the Israeli forces entering <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/emerging-markets/24/05/39048961/all-eyes-on-rafah-as-israeli-forces-enter-safe-zones-spain-ireland-and-norway-officially">safe zones in Gaza</a>, have also added to the uncertainty in the oil market. The ongoing tensions in the Middle East have contributed to global inflation and energy security concerns, further influencing OPEC+&#8217;s decision-making.
Oil prices have remained range-bound in the first half of the year, with the potential for spikes due to developments in the Middle East. 
Rystad&#8217;s Jorge Leon noted that regional escalations could add a risk premium of up to $10 per barrel. OPEC+ delegates told CNBC that while the situation in the Gaza Strip still adds some pressure, the market has mostly absorbed its impact.
OPEC+ must also navigate its relationship with the U.S., which has criticized the coalition&#8217;s supply cuts over gasoline price concerns. Last week, the Biden administration announced the release of 1 million barrels of gasoline from reserves to lower pump prices. Similar measures were taken with the Strategic Petroleum Reserve during the COVID-19 pandemic. 
However, an OPEC+ delegate noted these actions are unlikely to have a long-term impact beyond summer price relief. The U.S. usually aims to replenish its emergency state reserves stockpile, according to the report.
Read Next: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/24/05/39063828/elon-musk-slams-joe-biden-says-president-cares-a-lot-more-about-whether-tesla-is-unionized-over-?itm_source=parsely-api" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Elon Musk Slams Joe Biden, Says President &#8216;Cares A Lot More About Whether Tesla Is Unionized&#8217; Over EV Maker&#8217;s Environmental Impact</a>
Image Via Shutterstock 
This story was generated using <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/author/benzinga-neuro">Benzinga Neuro</a> and edited by <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/Kaustubh-Bagalkote" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Kaustubh Bagalkote</a>

iShares Dow Jones US Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Index Fund

SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Equipment & Services ETF

OPEC+ Likely To Extend Production Cuts Amid Rising Summer Demand: Report

U.S. oil production is at record levels, as data from the Energy Information Administration puts 2023 production of crude oil on its way to break <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/oil">pre-pandemic records.</a>
The U.S. has been the top world producer of crude oil since the mid-2010s, a fact that has gone under the radar for much of the public. The latest data, from September, show a daily production of 13.2 million barrels a day, beating the previous record set in November 2019 of 13 million barrels.
The global oil market entered<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/23/12/36112158/oil-enters-bear-market-as-crude-prices-slump-to-five-month-low"> bear territory last week</a>, even as OPEC+ nations agreed on new oil cuts. U.S. record oil production is helping push the needle towards declining prices as stockpiles in the U.S. beat market expectations.  
On Monday, the national average price for regular gasoline was $3.15 per gallon. This average peaked at $4.84 per gallon in June 2022 during a period of extremely high inflation and dipped to as low as $2.97 in December 2022.
<a href="https://www.axios.com/2023/12/06/oil-production-biden?utm_source=twitter&amp;utm_campaign=editorial&amp;utm_medium=social">According</a> to Axios, the Biden administration walks a thin line between publicizing its efforts to ramp up production and jeopardizing its strong position against global warming.
&#8220;I&#8217;m going to get those gas prices down again, I promise you,&#8221; said President Joe Biden during a September speech aimed at harnessing support for his reelection.
While the president is keen on using oil prices as a way to increase support for the upcoming election, he has held back on taking credit for the increased production, as it conflicts directly with efforts to bring down carbon emissions, which are a key point in the Democratic political agenda.
Also Read: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/23/12/36184372/tesla-cybertruck-early-reservation-spots-fetch-big-bucks-on-ebay-would-you-pay-10k-to-get-yours-asap">Tesla Cybertruck Early Reservation Spots Fetch Big Bucks On eBay: Would You Pay $10K To Get Yours ASAP?</a>
Oil markets took a dive last week after Sultan Al Jaber, president of the COP 28 climate conference, expressed skepticism about the relationship between <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/large-cap/23/12/36070489/al-jaber-controversy-at-cop28-events-president-says-no-science-comments-misrepresented">fossil fuels and climate change</a>.
The United States Oil ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>) is down 8.4% in the past month but recovered 0.4% on Monday. ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UCO#NYSE">UCO</a>) gained 1.3% on Monday but added 13.1% in losses over the past month. Invesco DB Oil Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DBO#NYSE">DBO</a>) is also down 8.4% in the past month, recovering 0.9% on Monday.
Al Jaber has been one of the most controversial figures<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/esg/23/11/36031535/what-cop28-says-about-geopolitics-u-s-uae-relations-and-the-fate-of-the-oil-sector"> of the climate conference</a> given his role as CEO of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, a United Arab Emirates state-owned oil company that ranks as the 12th largest producer in the world and 14th largest greenhouse gas polluter.
Exxon Mobil Corp (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XOM#NYSE">XOM</a>) was also under the spotlight of criticism during the COP28 as CEO Darren Woods defended a strategy of carbon capture <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/23/12/36070049/exxon-defends-carbon-capture-amid-skepticism-at-cop28-report">to fight climate change</a>, which the IEA has called "implausible."
Exxon shares are down 5% in the past month, and closed 0.07% higher on Monday. Other U.S.-listed oil giants are also down this month as US oil production increased include: ConocoPhillips (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/COP#NYSE">COP</a>) is down 2.7% while Devon Energy Corp (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DVN#NYSE">DVN</a>) is down 2.2% and Shell PLC (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SHEL#NYSE">SHEL</a>) is down 3.2%.
In spite of heavy pressure from climate groups to reduce emissions, global crude oil production increased by a record 5.4% rate in 2022.
Now Read: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/23/12/36182507/market-strategists-expect-these-2-magnificent-7-ai-sleepers-to-outperform-apple-stock-in">Market Strategists Expect These 2 Magnificent 7 AI &#8216;Sleepers&#8217; To Outperform Apple Stock In 2024</a>
Photo: Shutterstock

Crude Conundrum: US Oil Production Hits Record Levels, But Energy Stocks Aren't Pumping

The launch of COP28 on Thursday is the latest glimpse at the ongoing effort <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/23/11/36028451/cop28-climate-summit-a-moment-of-reckoning-for-oil-execs-or-just-d-ja-vu">to decarbonize the global economy.</a>
Whether its goal is to be a force for good or, as the BBC recently <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-67508331">revealed</a>, serve "as an opportunity to strike oil and gas deals" remains unclear. 
Either way, the so-called &#8220;Conference of the Parties&#8221; says a lot more than what's coming from its climate talks: it's lending a view into geopolitics, political alliances, power friendships, and the fate of the oil sector.
Earlier this month, a report by the UN&#8217;s Environment Program warned that the emissions goals set during the landmark Paris Agreement of 2015 <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/esg/23/11/35883432/stocks-to-watch-as-the-world-turns-to-the-2023-un-climate-change-conference-cop28">are not enough to keep global temperatures under the established limit</a> of 1.5°C (2.7°F) below pre-industrial levels.
Current projections put the course of average temperatures at a catastrophic 2.9°C (5.2°F) rise above pre-industrial levels before 2100.
The UAE Paradox: The designation of Sultan Al Jaber as president of the climate conference has been a major source of controversy. After all, he is the CEO of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, a UAE state-owned oil company that ranks as the 12th largest producer in the world and 14th largest greenhouse gas polluter.
The BBC, citing leaked documents, reported this week that the UAE intends to use its role as host as a way to close fuel deals with 15 other nations.
The paradox of having an oil baron at the helm of the world's most important summit on climate change, which itself is being held in Dubai, a city built by wealth made from oil extraction, has been pointed out by several high-profile critics as outrageous.
Al Gore, climate activist Greta Thunberg, and hundreds of climate organizations from around the globe signed a collective letter in January. The letter denounced the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company as a major entity responsible for greenhouse gas emissions.
Production and use of oil and gas are top contributors to climate change. They contribute to a combined 55% of greenhouse gas emissions, according to the International Energy Agency.
"This decision threatens the legitimacy and efficacy of COP28," wrote the signing parties, adding that the company has launched programs to expand its oil output in years to come.
What some climate activists have found even more worrying is the friendly relationship between Al Jaber and former Secretary of State John Kerry. 
Kerry&#8217;s work under the Obama administration was key in securing the Paris climate deal in 2015.
"It may or may not work," Kerry <a href="https://time.com/6335225/sultan-al-jaber-cop28-interview/?utm_source=twitter&amp;utm_medium=social&amp;utm_campaign=editorial&amp;utm_term=climate_climate-change&amp;linkId=248438394">told</a> Time magazine earlier this month. "Some might call it an experiment to have an oil-and-gas-­producing entity host COP. That's the big question."
According to Politico, Kerry and Al Jaber met 22 times in the two-and-a-half years since Kerry took the job of U.S. Special Presidential Envoy for Climate under Biden.
Their unusually tight relationship has become a cause for concern for climate activists, who fear that economic incentives from oil production could come in the way of climate goals.
As the first and seventh-largest oil and gas producers in the world, respectively, the U.S. and the United Arab Emirates have more than enough reasons to maintain good relations.
"The U.S. has much more interests aligned with the Emirates than we do," said a senior European diplomat to Politico.
The push towards reducing carbon emissions will have its effects on stocks from several sectors, including oil and gas, as well as those associated with ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) policies.
The world needs to reduce its carbon emissions by 42% by 2030 to keep on track toward Paris Agreement goals. This means a huge drop in sales for oil and gas producers. 
While Al Jaber has publicly expressed the need to reduce carbon emissions, the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company which he leads continues to have the largest expansion plans for oils and gas production of any other company in the world, according to data from the Global Oil and Gas Exit List <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/nov/15/cop28-host-uae-oil-plans-data">quoted</a> by The Guardian.
Last year, the company's board presented a $150 billion plan to upsize oil production to 5 million barrels a day by 2027. These expansion plans put it at the top of a list of companies whose expansion plans go against goals to reduce carbon emissions.
In this top-five are also Chevron Corporation (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CVX#NYSE">CVX</a>) and Exxon Mobil Corp (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XOM#NYSE">XOM</a>).
According to the data, the 1600 largest oil producers have spent $170 billion in the search for new fossil fuel resources since 2021.
Optimists expect the COP28 to give birth to real commitments and plans to reach the needed reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. These plans would go directly against the current business models of major oil companies, whose transition to a renewables-based market is still not a guarantee of maintaining the profitability levels of today.
ConocoPhillips (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/COP#NYSE">COP</a>), Devon Energy Corp (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DVN#NYSE">DVN</a>), Phillips 66 (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PSX#NYSE">PSX</a>) are also liable to shifts related to climate policy.
<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/money/best-oil-etfs">The largest ETFs in the oil sector</a>, by amount of assets, are:
<ul>
<li>United States Oil ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>)</li>
<li>ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UCO#NYSE">UCO</a>)</li>
<li>Invesco DB Oil Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DBO#NYSE">DBO</a>)</li>
</ul>
Shutterstock photo.

What COP28 Says About Geopolitics, US-UAE Relations And Fate Of The Oil Sector

The outbreak of war in the Middle East is threatening to hamper the Fed's efforts<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/inflation"> to control inflation</a>.
<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/top-stories/23/10/35218882/they-are-like-isis-netanyahu-blinken-unite-against-hamas-as-imf-monitors-oil-market-impact">A Thursday visit from Secretary of State Antony Blinken</a> to Israel was confirmation of unconditional support from the U.S. for Israel in its war against Palestinian terrorist organization Hamas.
Israel&#8217;s military reported on Thursday afternoon that over 1,200 people, including at least 27 Americans, have been killed by Hamas&#8217; attacks, with around 2,800 individuals injured. In response to these attacks, Israeli counterstrikes in Gaza have resulted in the deaths of approximately 1,537 individuals, according to the Gaza Ministry of Health, CBS News <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/israel-hamas-palestinian-war-attacks-gaza-strip/">reported</a>.
On Thursday morning, International Monetary Fund managing director Kristalina Georgieva <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/top-stories/23/10/35218882/they-are-like-isis-netanyahu-blinken-unite-against-hamas-as-imf-monitors-oil-market-impact">expressed concern over how the conflict could affect global oil markets</a>, which are liable <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/23/10/35138138/how-the-israel-hamas-conflict-could-impact-oil-markets">to be disrupted by war in the Middle East</a>, where roughly a third of the global oil output is produced.
While the specific area where the conflict is located is not a significant oil-producing region, major disruptions in the global oil markets could come if further conflict arises between the U.S. and Iran, a long-time backer of Hamas operations against Israel. 
Earlier this week the Iranian government denied having any relationship with the Hamas attacks, as Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said "We defend Palestine, we defend the fights."  This denial is contradicted by reports that Iran had a direct role in training Hamas for the latest attack on Israeli civilians, <a href="https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iran-israel-hamas-strike-planning-bbe07b25">according </a>to The Wall Street Journal.
While <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/23/10/35214135/us-prepares-2b-aid-package-for-israel-to-crush-hamas-amid-intensifying-conflict-report">Congress is preparing a $2-billion aid package</a> for Israel, several prominent U.S. politicians <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/23/10/35153697/lindsey-graham-suggests-joe-biden-threaten-iranian-oil-infrastructure-amid-israel-hamas-conflict-we">denounced Iran&#8217;s participation in the massacre</a>, proposing a double-down on oil sanctions. 
Yet the already fragile relationship between the U.S. and Iran, the world&#8217;s eight largest oil producers, could still have an impact on oil prices, exacerbating inflation worldwide and in the U.S.
Also Read: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/entertainment/23/10/35171815/hollywood-celebrities-react-to-israel-conflict-i-stand-with-israel-you-should-too-israeli-a">Hollywood, Celebrities React To Israel Conflict: &#8216;I Stand With Israel You Should Too&#8217; Israeli Actress Gal Gadot Asks For The World Not To Sit On Fence</a>
Israel-Hamas Different From Ukraine-Russia War: Last month, <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/23/09/34703828/a-prisoner-exchange-with-iran-could-impact-the-oil-sector-heres-how">a prisoner swap between the U.S. and Iran</a> emerged as the first sign of improving diplomatic relations after decades of tension over the Middle-eastern country's nuclear program. Iran's reported military assistance to Russia in the war on Ukraine has also been met with discontent in Washington.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 launched a world-wide energy crisis which impacted most economies as the world recovered from the economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic.
But the impact on oil prices stemming from the Israel/Hamas conflict is different in nature.&nbsp;
Energy prices spiked after the Ukraine invasion as the Western world imposed sanctions on Russia, which at the time remained a major supplier of natural gas to the European Union. Russia is also the third-largest oil producer, accounting for about 10% of global production.
The Israel-Hamas conflict's capacity to impact global oil prices is directly dependent on Iran&#8217;s level of involvement in the war on Israel. Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz, where an estimated 20-30% of global oil inventory passes.
That scenario would put pressure on the U.S. and other Western nations to increase sanctions on Iran, shrinking the supply of oil to the West and raising barrel prices.
Conflict Could Affect Consumer Prices: Inflation in the U.S. has fallen to an annual 3.7% for both August and September, as per <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/econ-s/23/10/35218470/cpi-surpasses-estimates-inflation-prints-3-7-in-september-reigniting-fed-rate-hike-speculations">data released by the Department of Labor on Thursday</a>. While the rate is significantly lower than the peak of 9.1% reached during June 2022, it remains high above the 2% goal that the Fed is chasing <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/top-stories/23/10/35202528/is-federal-reserve-near-the-end-of-rate-hiking-campaign-3-economists-weigh-in-on-fomc-minutes">by maintaining decades-high interest rates</a>.
The threat of energy prices affecting recent victories over inflation was highlighted as a major risk by Fed officials in minutes from the latest FOMC meeting, also released Thursday, where Fed governors voted to maintain the federal funds rate at between 5.25% and 5.50%.
On Wednesday, the CEO of oil exploration company Pioneer Natural Resources (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PXD#NYSE">PXD</a>) told CNBC that "If Iran enters the war, we&#8217;re going to see much higher oil prices."
The price of a barrel of oil is behind gas prices, a major consumer staple in which Americans spend an average 3% of their total budget. Oil prices also affect the cost of airline tickets, as well as the cost of shipping, which is then transferred to the rest of the supply chain, reaching the price of consumer goods.
Stocks To Watch: Rising oil prices could have a positive effect on the bottom lines of U.S.-based oil extraction companies, like Exxon Mobil (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XOM#NYSE">XOM</a>), Chevron (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CVX#NYSE">CVX</a>) and Shell (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SHEL#NYSE">SHEL</a>) .
ETFs like the United States Oil Fund LP (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>), the iShares U.S. Oil &amp; Gas Exploration &amp; Production ETF (BATS:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IEO#BATS">IEO</a>) and the ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UCO#NYSE">UCO</a>) closely follow the oil industry.
If inflation spikes again, most industries will suffer. But the 2022 spike saw some companies more effected than others. Tech companies were among the worst hit by rising inflation, which had a major toll on the stocks of Apple (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>), Amazon (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>) and Meta (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>) during 2022.
Industries navigating the consumer discretionary rail could also take a big hit. These include automakers like Tesla (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>), General Motors (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GM#NYSE">GM</a>), Ford (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/F#NYSE">F</a>) and Volkswagem (OTC:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VWAPY#OTC">VWAPY</a>).
The Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLY#NYSE">XLY</a>) and the Vanguard Consumer Discretionary ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VCR#NYSE">VCR</a>) are two ETFs following this sector.
Some other major stocks in consumer discretionary include Nike (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NKE#NYSE">NKE</a>), Lululemon (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/LULU#NASDAQ">LULU</a>) Starbucks (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SBUX#NASDAQ">SBUX</a>), McDonalds (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MCD#NYSE">MCD</a>), Home Depot (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/HD#NYSE">HD</a>) Airbnb (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ABNB#NASDAQ">ABNB</a>) and Booking Holdings (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BKNG#NASDAQ">BKNG</a>).
Now Read: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/sports/23/10/35168508/sports-world-responds-to-israel-crisis-nfl-player-pleads-please-get-my-parents-home">Sports World Responds To Israel Crisis: NFL Player Pleads &#8216;Please Get My Parents Home&#8217;</a>
Photo: Shutterstock

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Iran's Involvement In Israel-Hamas Conflict Is Key For The Future Of US Inflation

Oil prices recover on Thursday after three consecutive days in the red.

Crude Oil Recovers As US Inventories Set To Erode Further In 2025

Commodities in 2025 - Energy markets brace for geopolitical flareups, gold set to shine

Oil prices experienced a downturn on Thursday, as cautious signals from central bankers in the US, Europe, and Asia regarding monetary policy easing fueled anxieties about weakening economic activity.

Fed Outlook Sends Oil Prices Lower Amid Demand Concerns

In this video, Ira Epstein reviews the activity in the Financial Markets after the day that just ended, Thursday, December 19.

Financial Markets Report For Thursday, Dec 19

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price extends its losing streak for the fifth successive session, trading around $68.90 per barrel during the Asian hours on Friday.

WTI Moves Below 69.00, Further Downside Seems Possible Due To Stronger US Dollar

2025 Perspectives: Optimism Through The Obstacles

Trump threatens EU with tariffs unless it buys more U.S. oil, gas

OPEC Update - December 2024

Even if you're a short-term trader, it's important to always know the state of the longer-term trends. Crude oil has been making lower lows and lower highs since its peak in 2022.

Crude Oil Is Going To Save The Fed

Oil prices had slipped after the US Fed forecast fewer rate cuts in 2025, dampening demand for the fuel. The output cuts of OPEC+ have created a floor for oil as prices continued to trade in a narrow range.

Crude Oil Missing Catalyst To Lift Prices; What's Next For The Market?

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ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil 2x Shares

이스라엘과 레바논 정부가 휴전 협정을 수용했다고 조 바이든 대통령이 화요일에 밝혔다.
&#8220;오늘 중동에서 좋은 소식을 전할 수 있게 되어 기쁘다,&#8221;라고 바이든이 말하며 이스라엘과 레바논 총리와 대화했다고 덧붙였다.
&#8220;이스라엘과 헤즈볼라 간의 파괴적인 갈등을 종식시키기 위한 미국의 제안을 두 정부가 수용했다고 발표하게 되어 기쁘다,&#8221;라고 바이든이 백악관 로즈가든에서 말했다.
바이든에 따르면, 휴전은 수요일 오전 4시에 발효될 예정이다.
헤즈볼라는 이 거래 발표에 즉각적으로 언급하지 않았다고 뉴욕 타임스가 보도했다. 레바논 정부는 헤즈볼라 무장 세력을 통제하지 않는다.
이 거래는 60일간의 휴전을 요구한다고 뉴욕 타임스가 보도했으며, 미국, 유엔 및 다른 기관들이 이를 감독할 것이다. 이스라엘은 레바논에서 군대를 철수하고, 헤즈볼라는 전투원들을 리타니 강 북쪽으로 이동시킬 것이다.
이스라엘과 헤즈볼라 간의 공습은 휴전 협상 동안에도 계속되었다.
무슨 일이 있었나: 단기 제안은 적대 행위를 60일 동안 중단하자는 것이지만, 지속적인 휴전을 목표로 하고 있다고 <a href="https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-hezbollah-ceasefire-deal-gaza-war-11-26-24-intl-hnk/index.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">CNN</a>이 한 이스라엘 관리를 인용해 보도했다.
베냐민 네타냐후 총리는 휴전의 세 가지 이유를 제시했는데, 그 중 하나는 이란으로 초점을 옮기고, 이스라엘 군을 보충하고, <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/23/10/35136071/israel-under-siege-unprecedented-hamas-attack-sparks-intense-clashes-netanyahu-says-we-are-at-war" target="_blank" rel="noopener">2023년 10월 7일</a>에 붙잡힌 인질을 석방하도록 하마스에 더 큰 압력을 가하는 것이다.
참고: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/24/11/42198266/crude-oil-moves-lower-dicks-sporting-goods-earnings-top-views">원유 가격 하락; 딕스 스포팅 구즈 실적이 예상치를 상회</a>
왜 중요한가: 모든 사람이 휴전이 효과적일 것이라고 확신하는 것은 아니다.
<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/11/26/world/israel-hezbollah-lebanon-cease-fire" target="_blank" rel="noopener">뉴욕 타임즈</a>에 따르면, 이스라엘의 국가안보 장관인 이타마르 벤그비르는 헤즈볼라를 방어하기 위한 "안전지대"가 레바논 내에 필요하다고 강조했다. 그렇지 않으면 두 나라는 미래에 또 다른 전쟁을 위험에 처하게 될 것이라고 말했다.
벤그비르는 휴전 결정이 그를 네타냐후의 연합에서 떠나게 만들 것이라고는 언급하지 않았다.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">시장 반응</h3>
United States Oil Fund(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>)를 통해 추적하는 유가가 화요일 0.65% 하락했다. 반면, VanEck Israel ETF(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>)를 통해 모니터링된 이스라엘 주식은 올해 들어 23.5% 상승했다.
다른 원유 ETF들은 화요일 오후 하락세를 보였다.
ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UCO#NYSE">UCO</a>)는 0.93% 하락했고, SPDR S&amp;P Oil &amp; Gas Exploration &amp; Production ETF(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XOP#NYSE">XOP</a>)는 0.75% 감소했으며, MicroSectorsTM Oil &amp; Gas Exploration &amp; Production 3X Leveraged ETNs(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/OILU#NYSE">OILU</a>)은 0.45% 하락했다.
지금 읽어야 할 것:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://kr.benzinga.com/news/usa/economy/%ED%8A%B8%EB%9F%BC%ED%94%84%EA%B0%80-%EB%AF%B8%EA%B5%AD%EC%9D%84-%EB%A9%95%EC%8B%9C%EC%BD%94%EC%99%80%EC%9D%98-%EB%AC%B4%EC%97%AD-%EC%A0%84%EC%9F%81%EC%9C%BC%EB%A1%9C-%EC%9D%B4%EB%81%8C%EA%B9%8C/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">트럼프가 미국을 멕시코와의 무역 전쟁으로 이끌까요? 클라우디아 셰인바움 대통령이 위협을 반박</a></li>
</ul>
이미지: Shutterstock
다른 트레이더들보다 30분 일찍 독점 시장 움직임 뉴스를 받아보세요. 
Benzinga Pro의 14일 무료 체험을 통해 독점 뉴스 기사를 이용할 수 있어 수백만 명의 다른 트레이더보다 먼저 실행 가능한 거래 뉴스를 얻을 수 있습니다. <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/pro/register?t=be2bewe5mibe3bz3&amp;utm_source=bz-kor" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">여기를 클릭</a>하여 14일 무료 체험을 시작하세요.

이스라엘과 레바논의 무장단체인 헤즈볼라 간의 전투를 종료하기 위한 휴전 협정이 제안되었다.
무슨 일이 있었나: 이 단기 제안은 적대 행위를 60일간 중단하자는 것이지만, 지속적인 휴전을 의도하고 있다고 <a href="https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-hezbollah-ceasefire-deal-gaza-war-11-26-24-intl-hnk/index.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">CNN</a>이 한 이스라엘 관계자를 인용하여 보도했다.
베냐민 네타냐후 총리는 휴전의 세 가지 이유를 제시했는데, 그 중 하나는 이란으로 초점을 옮기고, 이스라엘 군을 보충하고, <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/23/10/35136071/israel-under-siege-unprecedented-hamas-attack-sparks-intense-clashes-netanyahu-says-we-are-at-war" target="_blank" rel="noopener">2023년 10월 7일</a>에 붙잡힌 인질을 석방하도록 하마스에 더 큰 압력을 가하는 것이다.
관련 기사: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/24/11/42198266/crude-oil-moves-lower-dicks-sporting-goods-earnings-top-views">원유 가격 하락; 딕스 스포팅 구즈 실적 예상 초과</a>
왜 중요한가: 모든 사람이 휴전이 효과적일 것이라고 확신하는 것은 아니다.
<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/11/26/world/israel-hezbollah-lebanon-cease-fire" target="_blank" rel="noopener">뉴욕 타임스</a>에 따르면, 이스라엘의 국가안보 장관인 이타마르 벤그비르는 헤즈볼라를 방어하기 위한 &#8220;안전지대&#8221;가 레바논 내에 필요하다고 강조했다. 그렇지 않으면 두 나라는 미래에 또 다른 전쟁을 위험에 처하게 될 것이라고 말했다.
벤그비르는 휴전 결정이 그를 네타냐후의 연합에서 떠나게 만들 것이라고는 언급하지 않았다.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">시장 반응</h3>
United States Oil Fund(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>)를 통해 추적하는 유가가 화요일 0.47% 하락했다. 반면, VanEck Israel ETF(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>)를 통해 모니터링된 이스라엘 주식은 올해 들어 22.5% 상승했다.
다른 원유 ETF들은 화요일 오후 하락세를 보였다.
ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UCO#NYSE">UCO</a>)는 0.93% 하락했고, SPDR S&amp;P Oil &amp; Gas Exploration &amp; Production ETF(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XOP#NYSE">XOP</a>)는 0.74% 감소했으며, MicroSectorsTM Oil &amp; Gas Exploration &amp; Production 3X Leveraged ETNs(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/OILU#NYSE">OILU</a>)은 0.45% 하락했다.
다음 읽어보기:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/24/11/42198583/will-trump-lead-us-into-trade-war-with-mexico-president-claudia-sheinbaum-rebukes-threats">트럼프가 미국을 멕시코와의 무역전쟁으로 이끌까요? 클라우디아 쉐인바움 대통령이 위협을 반박하다</a></li>
</ul>
이미지: Shutterstock
다른 트레이더들보다 30분 일찍 독점 시장 움직임 뉴스를 받아보세요. 
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네타냐후, 헤즈볼라와의 휴전 합의 지지; 이스라엘 강경파, 레바논 내부 '보안 구역' 요구

워싱턴 포스트는 베냐민 네타냐후 이스라엘 총리가 바이든 행정부에게 이란의 원유나 <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/24/10/41298349/us-hits-iran-oil-exports-with-new-sanctions-after-israel-attack-crude-oil-holds-steady-at-75" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-google-interstitial="false">핵 시설</a>이 아닌 군사 목표물을 공격할 의향이 있다고 말한 후 월요일 오후 늦게 원유 가격이 급락했다고 보도했다.
상세 내용: 미국 관리와 <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/10/14/israel-iran-strike-nuclear-oil-military/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">이 문제에 정통한</a> 한 관계자에 따르면 네타냐후는 지난 수요일 조 바이든 대통령과의 통화에서 이란에 대한 보복 공격으로 군사 기반 시설을 목표로 삼을 계획이라고 말했다.
또한, 이란에 대한 이스라엘의 행동은 &#8220;미국 대선에 대한 정치적 개입&#8221;이라는 인식을 피하기 위해 설계될 것이라고 소식통이 전했다. 이란 원유 시설에 대한 공격은 에너지 가격을 상승시킬 수 있기 때문이다. 해당 소식통은 네타냐후가 두 정상 간의 통화에서 &#8220;더 절제된 입장&#8221;에 있다고 설명했다.
다음 읽어볼 기사: <a href="https://kr.benzinga.com/news/global/opec%EC%9D%98-%EC%88%98%EC%9A%94-%EC%84%B1%EC%9E%A5-%EC%A0%84%EB%A7%9D-%ED%95%98%ED%96%A5-%EC%A1%B0%EC%A0%95%EA%B3%BC-%EC%9D%B4%EB%9E%80%EC%9D%98-%EC%83%9D%EC%82%B0%EB%9F%89-%EC%A6%9D%EA%B0%80/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">OPEC 전망 하향 조정, 이란 생산 증가로 유가 2% 하락: 분석가 &#8220;네타냐후가 미국의 이란 수출 제한 약속에 의구심을 가질 수 있다&#8221;고 말하다.</a>
기타 사항: 서부 텍사스 중질유(WTI) 원유를 추적하는 United States Oil Fund(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>)은 OPEC이 2024년 글로벌 석유 수요 증가 예측과 2025년 글로벌 <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/10/41320277/oil-prices-drop-2-as-opec-cuts-forecast-irans-output-rises-analyst-says-netanyahu-m">원유 수요 성장 전망</a>을 낮춘 후 월요일 정기 거래 세션에서 2.01% 하락했다.
OPEC은 월요일에 발표한 월간 원유 시장 보고서에서 2024년 원유 수요 성장 추정치를 하루 106,000배럴(bpd) 하향 조정하여, 내년 세계 수요가 하루 193만 배럴 증가할 것으로 예상한다고 밝혔다. 또한, 2025년 수요 성장 전망은 하루 102,000배럴 하향 조정되어 전년 대비 160만 배럴 증가로 수정되었다.
ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UCO#NYSE">UCO</a>) 펀드는 월요일 정규 거래에서 세계 원유 수요 성장 전망 하향 조정에 따라 2% 이상 하락했으며, 애프터 마켓에서 $27.50로 4.51% 추가 하락했다.

추가로 읽어볼 기사:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/10/41277250/whats-going-on-with-first-solar-stock">퍼스트 솔라 주식에 무슨 일이 일어나고 있습니까?</a></li>
</ul>
사진: Shutterstock
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목요일, 원유 가격이 5% 이상 급등했다. 이는 조 바이든 대통령이 미국이 이스라엘과 이란의 석유 시설에 대한 공격 가능성에 대해 논의했다고 언급한 후 발생한 일이다.
&#8220;우리는 그것에 대해 논의 중이다,&#8221;고 바이든이 기자들과의 대화에서 말했다.
바이든은 이란의 석유 시설을 타격하는 아이디어에 대해 긍정적이지 않은 듯 보였으나, 말을 중단했다: &#8220;그것은 조금… 어쨌든.&#8221; 아래 비디오를 참조하세요.
<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio">
<div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper"><iframe loading="lazy" title="Biden: Discussing Israeli strikes on Iran oil facilities &#x7C; AJ #shorts" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/InF5MnsXAt0?feature=oembed" width="500" height="281" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen"></iframe></div>
</figure>
한 기자가 바이든에게 &#8220;이스라엘이 이란에 보복하는 것을 ‘허용&#8217;할 것이냐&#8221;고 묻자, 바이든은 즉시 정정했다: &#8220;우리는 이스라엘을 ‘허용&#8217;하지 않는다. 우리는 이스라엘에게 조언한다.&#8221;
<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/23/10/35136071/israel-under-siege-unprecedented-hamas-attack-sparks-intense-clashes-netanyahu-says-we-are-at-war">2023년 10월 7일</a> 이후, 이스라엘은 가자 지구의 하마스와 레바논의 헤즈볼라와 전투를 벌이고 있다. 이들 두 그룹은 미국이 테러 조직으로 간주하는 단체이다.
관련 기사: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/10/41134015/jd-vance-tim-walz-debate-sets-a-different-tone-candidates-discuss-israel-iran-escalation-immigration">JD 밴스와 팀 월즈의 토론이 다른 분위기를 조성하다, 후보들이 이스라엘-이란 격화 논의</a>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">석유와 이스라엘-이란 갈등</h3>
이란은 세계에서 일곱 번째로 큰 원유 생산국이다. 이란은 헤즈볼라 무장 단체를 지원하며, 생산량의 약 절반을 해외로 수출한다.
<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/asia/24/08/40596334/asia-markets-mixed-europe-gains-crude-oil-falls-on-chinese-demand-concerns-global-markets-today-whil">원유 수요가 약세</a>를 보이는 중국은 이란의 주요 고객이다.
이란이 <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/global/24/10/41126038/iran-attacks-israel-with-missiles-middle-east-tensions-escalates-s-p-500-stocks-bitcoin-fall-as-oil">이스라엘을 미사일로 공격한 후</a> 원유 가격은 변동을 보였다. 10월 3일 기준, 서부 텍사스 중질유(WTI) 가격은 배럴당 73.83달러이다. 이는 전일 종가인 70.10달러에 비해 5.32% 상승한 수치이다.
브렌트유 가격은 배럴당 약 77.76달러로, 하루 동안 74.33달러에서 77.58달러 사이에서 변동했다.
바이든 하에 미국은 다른 어떤 미국 대통령 행정부보다 더 많은 원유를 생산하고 있으며, 비축유를 채우고 있다. 바이든 행정부는 이번 주에 추가로 <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/eurozone/24/10/41146905/geopolitical-risks-may-be-biggest-threat-to-markets-boe-says">600만 배럴의 원유를 확보</a>했다.
중동에서의 지속적인 폭력 사태는 호르무즈 해협에 위험을 초래한다. 이 해협은 탱커 교통의 3분의 1과 액화천연가스(LNG)의 5분의 1이 통과하는 중요한 경로이다.
미국과 그 동맹국들은 이 해협을 열어 두려는 결심을 하고 있을 가능성이 높다. 이 해협을 차단하려는 시도는 군사적 개입을 유발할 수 있다.
이란은 해협의 대부분의 북쪽 해안을 통제하고 있으며, 제재나 서방 국가들과의 갈등에 대응하여 통행을 차단하겠다고 위협한 적이 있다.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">시장 반응</h3>
현재까지 중동 갈등에 대한 시장 반응은 2022년 2월 러시아가 우크라이나를 침공했을 때에 비해 상대적으로 조용하다.
당시 원유 시장은 큰 변동성과 혼란으로 반응하여 글로벌 가격이 급격히 상승했다.
브렌트유는 2014년 이후 처음으로 배럴당 100달러를 초과했으며, 2022년 3월에는 배럴당 139달러로 잠시 급등하여 사상 최고가에 근접했다.
원유 관련 상장지수펀드(ETF)의 가격은 목요일 상승세를 보였습니다. 현재 가격은 다음과 같다:
<ul>
<li>United States Oil Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>)는 4.08% 상승하여 75.73달러에 마감했다.</li>
<li>Invesco DB Oil Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DBO#NYSE">DBO</a>)는 4.08% 상승하여 15.06달러에 마감했다.</li>
<li>SPDR S&amp;P Oil &amp; Gas Exploration &amp; Production ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XOP#NYSE">XOP</a>)는 3.29% 상승하여 139.81달러에 마감했다.</li>
<li>Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLE#NYSE">XLE</a>)는 1.76% 상승하여 92.32달러에 마감했다.</li>
<li>ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UCO#NYSE">UCO</a>)는 6.33% 상승하여 28.74달러에 마감했다.</li>
<li>VanEck Vectors Oil Services ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/OIH#NYSE">OIH</a>)는 2.19% 상승하여 298.46달러에 마감했다.</li>
</ul>
지금 읽어보세요:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/previews/24/10/41170128/jobs-report-preview-could-september-labor-data-shift-feds-interest-rate-path">일자리 보고서 미리 보기: 9월 노동 데이터가 연준의 금리 경로를 변경할 수 있을까?</a></li>
</ul>
사진 출처: Shutterstock
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유가 상승: 바이든, 이스라엘과 이란 시설 타격에 대한 미국과의 '협의'를 확인

석유수출국기구(OPEC)와 그 동맹국들로 구성된 OPEC+는 이번 주말에 현재의 감산을 연장할 것으로 예상된다고, 대표단과 분석가들이 전했다.
What Happened: 6월 1일 비엔나에서 직접 만날 예정이었던 OPEC+ 동맹은 이제 6월 2일 가상 플랫폼으로 회의를 옮겼다. 화요일 CNBC <a href="/stock/2024/05/31/oil-alliance-opec-could-extend-production-cuts-this-weekend.html#NYSE">보도</a>에 따르면 이 그룹은 현재 하루 총 586만 배럴의 공급 삭감을 시행하고 있으며, 그 중 하루 200만 배럴은 올해 말에 만료될 예정이다.
시장 참여자들은 2분기 말까지 남은 하루 220만 배럴의 감산이 연장될지 예의주시하고 있다. 이는 특히 여름철에 수요가 증가할 것으로 예상되는 점을 고려한 것이다.
익명을 요구한 세 명의 OPEC+ 대표는 CNBC에 하루 220만 배럴의 공급 감소가 장기화될 가능성이 있다고 말했다. 이 그룹은 또한 개별 구성 국가의 할당량 준수를 모니터링하고 있으며 과잉 생산자에게 추가 삭감을 요청했으며 이라크와 카자흐스탄은 자세한 보상 계획을 가지고 있다.
OPEC+ 연합의 감산 연장 결정은 중국의 정유소 유지보수 마무리, 여름이 다가옴에 따른 미국 소비 증가 등의 요인으로 인해 예상되는 여름 수요 증가에 영향을 받는다.
&#8220;6월이 오면 중국은 정유소 유지보수로 거의 중단하게 될 것이다. 여름이 다가옴에 따라 미국 소비가 증가하게 됨으로 6월은 이미 마이너스 원유 잔고를 기록할 것이다. 그리고 8월은 긴축이 최고조에 달하는 달이다&#8221;라고 케플러(Kpler)의 주요 원유 분석가 빅토르 카토나(Viktor Katona)가 이 보고서에서 말했다.
원유 부문이 자신의 투자 전략과 일치하는지 확인하기 위해 시장에서 가장 수익성이 높은 오일 ETF에 관심이 있는 투자자는 다음 옵션을 고려할 수 있다:  Vanguard Energy ETF(ARCA:<a class="items-end ticker-link-wrapper inline-flex" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/vde" target="_blank" rel="dofollow noopener" aria-label="Go to Quote Page for VDE">VDE</a>), VanEck Oil Services ETF(ARCA:<a class="items-end ticker-link-wrapper inline-flex" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/oih" target="_blank" rel="dofollow noopener" aria-label="Go to Quote Page for OIH">OIH</a>), United States Oil Fund(ARCA:<a class="items-end ticker-link-wrapper inline-flex" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/uso" target="_blank" rel="dofollow noopener" aria-label="Go to Quote Page for USO">USO</a>), iShares U.S. Oil &amp; Gas Exploration &amp; Production ETF (BATS:<a class="items-end ticker-link-wrapper inline-flex" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/ieo" target="_blank" rel="dofollow noopener" aria-label="Go to Quote Page for IEO">IEO</a>), SPDR S&amp;P Oil &amp; Gas Equipment &amp; Services ETF (ARCA:<a class="items-end ticker-link-wrapper inline-flex" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/xes" target="_blank" rel="dofollow noopener" aria-label="Go to Quote Page for XES">XES</a>) 및  ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil (ARCA:<a class="items-end ticker-link-wrapper inline-flex" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/uco" target="_blank" rel="dofollow noopener" aria-label="Go to Quote Page for UCO">UCO</a>).
<div class="ticker-wrapper"></div>
왜 이 소식이 중요한가 (Why It Matters): 이스라엘군이 가자 지구의 <a href="/stock/2024/05/31/all-eyes-on-rafah-as-israeli-forces-enter-safe-zones-spain-ireland-and-norway-officially.html">안전</a>지대에 진입하는 등 최근 지정학적 사건도 원유 시장의 불확실성을 가중시켰다. 중동의 지속적인 긴장은 글로벌 인플레이션과 에너지 안보에 대한 우려를 불러일으켰고 OPEC+의 의사 결정에 더욱 영향을 미쳤다.
유가는 상반기에도 박스권을 유지했으며, 중동 지역의 발전으로 인해 급등할 가능성이 있다.
라이스태드(Rystad)의 호르헤 레온(Jorge Leon)은 지역적 확대로 인해 배럴당 최대 10달러의 위험 프리미엄이 추가될 수 있다고 지적했다. OPEC+ 대표자들은 CNBC에 가자지구 상황이 여전히 어느 정도 압박을 가하고 있지만 시장은 그 영향을 대부분 흡수했다고 말했다.
OPEC+는 또한 휘발유 가격 우려로 인해 이 동맹국들의 공급 삭감을 비난해온 미국과의 관계를 모색해야 한다. 지난주 바이든 행정부는 주요소 가격을 낮추기 위해 비축량에서 100만 배럴의 휘발유를 방출한다고 발표했다. 코로나19 팬데믹 기간 동안 전략적 석유 비축(SPR)에도 유사한 조치가 취해졌다.
그러나 한 OPEC+ 대표는 이러한 조치가 여름 가격 완화 이후 장기적인 영향을 미칠 가능성이 낮다고 지적했다. 이 보도에 따르면 미국은 일반적으로 비상 국가 비축 재고량을 보충하는 것을 목표로 하고 있다.
다음 읽기: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/24/05/39063828/elon-musk-slams-joe-biden-says-president-cares-a-lot-more-about-whether-tesla-is-unionized-over-?itm_source=parsely-api" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">일론 머스크, &#8220;조 바이든 대통령은 테슬라가 노조에 가입했는지에 대해 더욱 신경쓴다&#8221;고 비판</a>
<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/author/benzinga-neuro">Benzinga Neuro</a>를 사용하여 작성된 이 기사는 Kaustubh Bagalkote에 의해 편집되었습니다.

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ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil

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에 대한 최신 뉴스 ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil (ARCA:UCO)

화요일, 11월 26, 2024

월요일, 10월 14, 2024

목요일, 10월 03, 2024

금요일, 5월 31, 2024

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