에 대한 최신 뉴스 United States Oil Fund (ARCA:USO)

USCF Investments

The investment aims to track the daily percentage changes in its shares’ per share NAV, mirroring the daily percentage changes in the spot price of light, sweet crude oil delivered to Cushing, Oklahoma. This alignment is measured by the daily shifts in the price of a specified short-term futures contract on light, sweet crude oil known as the “Benchmark Oil Futures Contract,” along with the interest earned on USO’s collateral holdings, after deducting USO’s expenses. USO primarily invests in futures contracts for various fuels, including light, sweet crude oil, other types of crude oil, diesel-heating oil, gasoline, natural gas, and other petroleum-based fuels.

United States Oil Fund LP *

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목요일, 원유 가격이 5% 이상 급등했다. 이는 조 바이든 대통령이 미국이 이스라엘과 이란의 석유 시설에 대한 공격 가능성에 대해 논의했다고 언급한 후 발생한 일이다.

유가 상승: 바이든, 이스라엘과 이란 시설 타격에 대한 미국과의 &#39;협의&#39;를 확인

Broad U.S. Equity ETFs

Movers

$BTC

SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust

이란이 화요일 이스라엘에 미사일 공격을 감행해 중동 지역의 긴장이 고조되면서 투자자들은 앞으로 몇 주 동안 주가와 섹터에 영향을 미칠 수 있는 여러 사건에 반응하고 있다.
중동 분쟁: 이란의 이스라엘 공격은 헤즈볼라 지도자 하산 나스랄라의 사망에 대한 보복으로 일어난 일이다.

이란의 이스라엘 공격, 항구 파업, 허리케인 헬렌으로 美 주식은 하락, 금 및 유가는 상승

Equities

Large Cap

Macro Economic Events

Bonds

Currency ETFs

Economics

Tech

IBIT

iShares PHLX SOX Semiconductor Sector Index Fund

SOXX

iShares Trust Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund

PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund

투자자들은 수요일과 금요일 사이에 중요한 노동 시장 데이터가 공개되어 연방준비제도(연준)의 공격적인 금리 인하에 대한 기대감이 높아질 것으로 예상하고 있다.

투자자들은 고용 데이터에 앞서 금리 인하에 공격적으로 베팅: 이번 주 주목해야 할 5개 ETF

United States Oil Fund

ETRACS Crude Oil Shares Covered Call ETNs due April 24, 2037

US OIL & GAS PLC S/ADR by U.S. Oil & Gas PLC

U S Oil & Gas PLC

Defiance Oil Enhanced Options Income ETF

UNITED STATES OIL ETF

News

General

U.S. Military Says It Conducted Strikes On 15 Houthi Targets In Houthi-Controlled Areas Of Yemen On Friday

President Biden Says Sanctions On Iran Are Under Consideration Right Now

<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CUAqm66ifq4" title="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CUAqm66ifq4">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CUAqm66ifq4</a>

Macro Notification

iShares MSCI Israel Capped Investable Market Index Fund

ISRA

Biden Says Israelis Have Not Concluded What They Are Going To Do About Iran's Strike; I Would Think About Other Alternatives To Striking Oil Fields; Netanyahu Should Remember That No Administration Has Helped Israel More; U.S. And Israeli Teams Are Constantly In Contact; They Are Not Going To Make Decision Immediately, Will Wait To See When They Want To Talk

U.S. Official Says Military Carries Out Strikes Against Multiple Houthi Targets In Yemen

Econ #s

U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count -5 To 479 Vs 484	Prior; U.S. Baker Hughes NatGas Rig Count +3 At 102; 	U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 585 Vs 587 Prior

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/2024-10-04_08h45_45.png" alt="" style="width:624px" /></figure>
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Barn Burner Jobs Report</h4>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-market-jobs-report-spy-mc-10042024">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&amp;P 500 (SPX).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>The chart shows that the stock market is rallying on the jobs report.</li>
<li>The chart shows that the stock market is above the support/resistance zone.</li>
<li>The just released jobs report is a barn burner. The report is a lot stronger than the consensus.&nbsp; Here are the details of the jobs report:
<ul>
<li>Nonfarm payrolls came at 254K vs. 135K consensus.</li>
<li>Nonfarm private payrolls came at 223K vs. 125K consensus.</li>
<li>Average hourly earnings came at 0.4% vs. 0.3% consensus.</li>
<li>Average work week came at 34.2 hours vs. 34.3 hours consensus.</li>
<li>Unemployment rate came at 4.1% vs. 4.2% consensus.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>At a minimum, this data point shows that Powell could have been wrong. When Powell cut interest rates by 50 bps, he explained it away by predicting labor weakness. The just released jobs report shows that there is no labor weakness.</li>
<li>Before and after the 50 bps rate cut,  we shared with readers The Arora Report analysis that the data did not support a 50 bps rate cut. Today's jobs report clearly proves that The Arora Report analysis was correct and the Fed may have made a mistake.  </li>
<li>Bonds are falling on the strong report.</li>
<li>Stocks are seeing extremely aggressive buying after the report. In the short term, it is bullish in that Powell gave the stock  market a big gift of a 50 bps cut predicting labor weakness, but there is no labor weakness.</li>
<li>After the jobs report, AI stocks are ripping. In the early trade, buying is extremely aggressive in AI stocks.  </li>
<li>This data is going to be ammunition for those who have been saying that the 50 bps rate cut was designed to help Harris win the election even though the Fed continues to publicly say that the Fed does not consider politics. Keep in mind, Trump has said that he would not reappoint Powell.</li>
<li>Adding to the optimism is that dock workers have suspended their strike.</li>
<li>In the longer term, this jobs data raises the probability that inflation will not come down to the Fed's 2% target and the Fed will once again be proven wrong.</li>
<li>As a note of caution, this is only one piece of data. At The Arora Report, we will be carefully watching additional pieces of new data as it comes. This is exactly what prudent investors should do.</li>
<li>ISM Non-Manufacturing Index yesterday came at 54.9 vs. 51.6 consensus. In The Arora Report analysis, this data also shows that the economy is strong.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h3>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>), Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>), Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>), Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>), Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>), NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>), and Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are positive in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h3>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.  Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.  The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).  The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).  The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h3>
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) is seeing buying on strong jobs data.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h3>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h3>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

Market Summary

Federal Reserve

Markets

Trading Ideas

AAPL

AMZN

GOOG

MSFT

NVDA

TSLA

AI Stocks Ripping, Barn Burner Jobs Report - Could Powell Be Wrong?

Yemen's Houthi Al Masirah TV Says U.S.-British Air Strikes Targeting Hodeidah Airport, Area In Sanaa; U.S.-British Air Strike Targets The South Of Dhamar City

Israeli Military Says Around 250 Hezbollah Fighters Killed In Southern Lebanon Since Start Of Ground Operation; Israeli Military Says It Is Still Assessing Damage From Strike Against Hezbollah Intelligence Headquarters In Beirut On Thursday Night

On Wednesday, October 3rd, U.S. markets closed lower as investors braced for the September payrolls report, which could influence future interest rate decisions. The slight rise in jobless claims signaled labor market softening, while escalating Middle East tensions pushed oil prices higher, adding to the cautious sentiment and prompting some profit-taking after recent gains.
In economic data, U.S. jobless claims rose by 6,000 to 225,000, slightly above estimates, while the S&amp;P Global services PMI was revised lower to 55.2 in September, down from 55.7 in August. The composite PMI also dipped to 54.
The majority of S&amp;P 500 sectors ended in the red, with consumer discretionary, materials, and real estate stocks leading losses, while energy and information technology sectors rose.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.44% and closed at 42,011.59. The S&amp;P 500 ended the day lower by 0.17% at 5,699.94, and the Nasdaq Composite slid 0.04%, finishing the session at 17,918.48.
Asian Markets Today
<ul>
<li>On Friday, Japan's Nikkei 225 closed the session higher by 0.16% at 38,613.50, led by gains in the Precision Instruments, Insurance, and Railway &amp; Bus sectors.</li>
<li>Australia's S&amp;P/ASX 200 ended the day lower by 0.67% at 8,150.00, led by losses in the Metals &amp; Mining, Materials and IT sectors.</li>
<li>India's Nifty 50 closed lower by 0.79% at 25,049.85, and the Nifty 500 was down 0.84% to 23,556.85.</li>
<li>China Markets closed for the National Day holiday.</li>
<li>Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 2.82%, ending the day at 22,736.87.</li>
</ul>
Eurozone at 06:00 AM ET
<ul>
<li>The European STOXX 50 index gained 0.21%.</li>
<li>Germany's DAX was up 0.33%.</li>
<li>France's CAC rose 0.41%.</li>
<li>U.K.'s FTSE 100 index traded lower by 0.45%.</li>
</ul>
Commodities at 06:00 AM ET
<ul>
<li>Crude Oil WTI was trading higher by 0.99% at $74.47/bbl, and Brent was up 1.00% at $78.41/bbl.</li>
<li>Oil prices rose driven by fears of Middle East tensions disrupting crude flows despite ample global supply. Brent and WTI crude gained around 9% this week as Israel-Iran tensions and Libya's production rebound influenced market dynamics.</li>
<li>Natural Gas was down 0.24% at $2.963.</li>
<li>Gold was trading lower by 0.03% at $2,678.45, Silver fell 0.52% to $32.290, and Copper gained 0.21% to $4.5627.</li>
</ul>
US Futures at 06:00 AM ET
Dow futures were down 0.01%, S&amp;P 500 futures rose 0.17%, and Nasdaq 100 Futures gained 0.30%.
Forex at 06:00 AM ET
The U.S. dollar index fell 0.10% to 101.89, the USD/JPY was down 0.31% to 146.47, and the USD/AUD declined 0.05% to 1.4610.
Photo by Pavel Bobrovskiy via Shutterstock

Asia

Emerging Markets

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ADIV

AGOV

ASHR

BBEU

BOIL

CQQQ

PowerShares DBmmodity Index Optimum Yield Diversified Fund

EEMA

FLAX

CurrencyShares British Pound Sterling Trust

IEMG

IEUR

KraneShares Trust KraneShares S&P Pan Asia Dividend Aristocrats Index ETF

KDIV

SPEM

USDU

Geopolitical Concerns Mount, Crude Oil Gains, Asia And Europe Markets Mixed - Global Markets Today While US Slept

Israeli Military Calls For Immediate Evacuation Of Specific Buildings In Beirut's Southern Suburbs

Palestinian Health Ministry Says At Least 14 Killed In Israeli Strike On Tulkarm In West Bank

Palestinian Red Crescent Says Five People Killed In Israeli Strike On Tulkarm In West Bank

Israeli Military Says It Has Conducted Strike On Tulkarm In Occupied West Bank

Oil is trading more than 5% higher Thursday on the heels of President Joe Biden&#8216;s statement that the U.S. spoke with Israel about a possible attack on Iran's oil facilities.
"We're in discussions about that,&#8221; Biden said during an interaction with reporters. 
Biden seemingly indicated he wasn&#8217;t partial to the idea of striking at Iran&#8217;s oil facilities, before cutting himself off: &#8220;I think that would be a little&#8230; anyway.&#8221; See video below.
<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio"> 
<div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<iframe loading="lazy" title="Biden: Discussing Israeli strikes on Iran oil facilities &#x7C; AJ #shorts" width="500" height="281" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/InF5MnsXAt0?feature=oembed" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" allowfullscreen></iframe>
</div>
</figure>
When one reporter asked whether Biden would &#8220;allow&#8221; Israel to retaliate against Iran, Biden swiftly corrected him: &#8220;First of all, we don&#8217;t &#8216;allow&#8217; Israel. We advise Israel.&#8221;
<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/23/10/35136071/israel-under-siege-unprecedented-hamas-attack-sparks-intense-clashes-netanyahu-says-we-are-at-war">Since Oct. 7, 2023</a>, Israel has been fighting Hamas in Gaza as well as Hezbollah in Lebanon. Both groups are considered terrorist organizations by the U.S. 
See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/10/41134015/jd-vance-tim-walz-debate-sets-a-different-tone-candidates-discuss-israel-iran-escalation-immigration">JD Vance, Tim Walz Debate Sets A Different Tone, Candidates Discuss Israel-Iran Escalation</a>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Oil And The Israel-Iran Conflict</h3>
Iran is the seventh-largest oil producer in the world. The country, which backs the Hezbollah militant group, exports around half its production abroad. 
China, where <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/asia/24/08/40596334/asia-markets-mixed-europe-gains-crude-oil-falls-on-chinese-demand-concerns-global-markets-today-whil">oil demand is weak</a>, is its main customer.
Since Iran's <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/global/24/10/41126038/iran-attacks-israel-with-missiles-middle-east-tensions-escalates-s-p-500-stocks-bitcoin-fall-as-oil">missile attack on Israel</a> on Monday, the price of barrels has fluctuated. As of Oct. 3, the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is $73.83 per barrel. This reflects a 5.32% increase from the previous day&#8217;s close of $70.10.
The price of Brent crude is approximately $77.76 per barrel. It has fluctuated within a range of $74.33 to $77.58 for the day.
The U.S., which is producing more oil under Biden than any other U.S. presidential administration, has been filling its reserves. The Biden administration acquired an additional <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/eurozone/24/10/41146905/geopolitical-risks-may-be-biggest-threat-to-markets-boe-says">6 million barrels of crude</a> just this week.
It&#8217;s worth noting that ongoing violence in the Middle East puts the Straits of Hormuz at risk. A third of tanker traffic and a fifth of LNG frozen gas is transported through that passageway. 
The U.S. and its allies are likely determined to keep the Strait open due to its strategic importance. Any attempt to block the Strait could provoke military intervention.
Iran controls much of the northern coastline of the Strait and has previously threatened to block the passage in response to sanctions or conflicts with Western countries. 
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Market Reaction</h3>
So far, market reaction to the Middle East conflict is relatively mute compared to February 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine.
At the time, the oil market reacted with significant volatility and disruption, leading to a sharp rise in global prices. 
Brent crude, the global benchmark, surged above $100 per barrel for the first time since 2014, and by March 2022, it had briefly spiked to $139 per barrel, near the all-time high.
Oil-related exchange-traded funds, or ETFs, were trending up at last check Thursday afternoon. Here&#8217;s where they stand: 
<ul>
<li>United States Oil Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>) is up 4.05% to $75.71</li>
<li>Invesco DB Oil Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DBO#NYSE">DBO</a>) is up 4.08% at $15.06</li>
<li>SPDR S&amp;P Oil &amp; Gas Exploration &amp; Production ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XOP#NYSE">XOP</a>) is up 3.1% at $139.56</li>
<li>Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLE#NYSE">XLE</a>) up 1.65% at $92.22</li>
<li>ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UCO#NYSE">UCO</a>) is up 6.59% at $28.81</li>
<li>VanEck Vectors Oil Services ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/OIH#NYSE">OIH</a>) is up 1.89% at $297.58</li>
</ul>
Now Read: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/previews/24/10/41170128/jobs-report-preview-could-september-labor-data-shift-feds-interest-rate-path">Jobs Report Preview: Could September Labor Data Shift Fed&#8217;s Interest Rate Path?</a></li>
</ul>
Image: Shutterstock

Oil Prices Rally: Biden Confirms US 'Discussions' With Israel About Striking Iran Facilities

G7 Expresses Deep Concern Over Deteriorating Situation In Middle East; Condemns Iran's Military Attack On Israel As A Serious Threat To Regional Stability; Reaffirms Commitment To Israel's Security; Urges All Regional Players To Act Responsibly And With Restraint; Calls For Immediate Ceasefire In Gaza And Unconditional Release Of Hostages; Voices Concern Over Lebanon Situation And Calls For Cessation Of Hostilities

Israel's Ambassador To UN Says We Are Strong, We Are Determined, And We Will Show This To Iran Soon; Says 'We Have A Lot Of Options' When It Comes To Iran; Says 'When You Know That Iran Is Actually Building Nuclear Capabilities, How Long Should Western World Wait?'; If We Fail With Diplomacy, We Have To Consider All Options

Islamic Resistance In Iraq Says It Attacked Target In South Israel

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/2024-10-03_08h44_42.png" alt="" style="width:624px" /></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Cognitive Dissonance</h3>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-market-bonds-israel-strike-iran-tlt-mc-10032024">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>The chart shows when the Fed rate cut was announced.</li>
<li>At the time the Fed rate cut was announced, this was the landscape:
<ul>
<li>Wall Street firms were tripping over themselves to rush their clients into buying long bonds.</li>
<li>The momo crowd was aggressively buying long bonds.</li>
<li>Technically, long bonds had broken out.</li>
<li>Trading services were sending signals to their members to go all in on buying long bonds.</li>
<li>Almost everyone was predicting that bond yields would fall much lower.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Long bonds move inversely to the yield.&nbsp; When yield goes higher, long bonds fall.</li>
<li>On the morning before the Fed rate cut announcement, The Arora Report made a bold call contrary to the prevailing wisdom.  The call was inline with prior calls that long bond yields may rise and long bonds may fall after the rate cut.  We wrote:</li>
</ul>
<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">One unintended consequence may be a rise in long term yields in due course.
</blockquote>
<ul>
<li>The chart shows that long bonds have fallen and yields have risen.</li>
<li>The chart shows that the breakout above the resistance zone failed.&nbsp; Ironically, this breakout was the reason legions of investors who rely only on traditional technical analysis bought long bonds on the breakout. To make matters worse, most of such bond trading positions are taken on high leverage.&nbsp; Due to high leverage, these positions now have substantial losses.
<ul>
<li>This is a cautionary tale that illustrates why investors should not rely solely on one form of analysis such as traditional technical analysis. Investors should rely on systems, such as The Arora Report system, that synergistically combine in an optimized manner the best elements of the following:
<ul>
<li>Macro analysis</li>
<li>Fundamental analysis</li>
<li>Technical analysis</li>
<li>Quantitative analysis</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Money is flowing into the safety of Treasuries due to anxiety about potential escalation of conflict in the Middle East.&nbsp; In The Arora Report analysis, if it was not for the escalation in the Middle East, TLT would have been much lower now.</li>
<li>Going forward, investors need to remember the probability adjusted risk reward ratio in long bonds is not great.  Long bonds will work only if there is a major recession or a major war breaks out.  However, investors need to remember that the stock market is counting on no recession. Investors are suffering from cognitive dissonance – they are buying stocks believing that there will not be a recession, they are buying bonds believing there will be a recession.</li>
<li>If inflation starts rising again, investors in long bonds will experience major losses.&nbsp; Investors are very short sighted and are also losing track of the fact that the election is not far away.&nbsp; Both Trump and Harris are committed to more reckless borrowing and more reckless spending.&nbsp; This will increase the supply of Treasuries.&nbsp; How can a higher supply of Treasuries be good for long bonds?&nbsp; The answer is that it is not good for long bonds.</li>
<li>On the positive side, NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>), CEO Jensen Huang says Blackwell production is in full swing and the demand for Blackwell is insane.</li>
<li>Also on the positive side, OpenAI has raised $6.6B in new funds at a valuation of $157B.&nbsp; This valuation is significantly higher than the last round.</li>
<li>Anxiety is building among investors regarding the upcoming strike on Iran by Israel.&nbsp; There are reports that Israel wants to attack Iran's nuclear installations, but Biden is trying to restrain Israel.</li>
<li>Initial jobless claims came at 225K vs. 223K consensus.&nbsp; Jobless claims are not showing weakness in the jobs picture.&nbsp; Powell saw weakness in the jobs picture, and that was one of his justifications for the 50 bps rate cut.&nbsp; More information will become available about the jobs picture tomorrow when the official jobs report is released at 8:30am ET.&nbsp; The jobs report has the potential to be a major market moving event.</li>
<li>ISM Non-Manufacturing Index will be released at 10am ET.&nbsp; The consensus is 51.6.&nbsp; This data may be market moving.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">China</h3>
The stock buying stampede in Hong Kong is slowing.  Mainland markets are closed.  Prudent investors are taking advantage of the rally to sell.  As full disclosure, The Arora Report&#8217;s plan continues to be to buy on a dip.  The Arora Report has new buy zones for Mainland China ETF Xtrackers Hvst CSI 300 China A Shs ETF Class A (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ASHR#NYSE">ASHR</a>) and Hong Kong ETF iShares China Large-Cap ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FXI#NYSE">FXI</a>) in The Arora Report&#8217;s ZYX Emerging.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">India</h3>
Growth concerns are emerging in India.  Money is beginning to flow out of India and into China.  As full disclosure, The Arora Report has new signals on India ETF WisdomTree India Earnings Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EPI#NYSE">EPI</a>), VanEck India Growth Leaders ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLIN#NYSE">GLIN</a>), and iShares MSCI India Small-Cap ETF (BATS:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SMIN#BATS">SMIN</a>) in The Arora Report&#8217;s ZYX Emerging.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h3>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in NVDA.
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>), Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>), Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>), Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>), and Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h3>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.  Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.  The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).  The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).  The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h3>
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) is seeing selling along with junk stocks.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h3>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h3>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

GLIN

SMIN

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In this video, Ira Epstein reviews the activity in the Financial Markets after the day that just ended, Friday, October 4.

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