US Treasury 10 Year Note ETF (NASDAQ: UTEN)

에 대한 최신 뉴스 US Treasury 10 Year Note ETF (NASDAQ:UTEN)

Fund invests at least 80 percent of the UST 10 Year Note Funds net assets (plus any borrowings for investment purposes) in the component securities of the Underlying Index.

US Treasury 10 Year Note ETF

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UTEN

예상보다 강한 미국 경제 데이터와 급등하는 유가가 연방준비제도(연준)의 11월 회의에 대한 시장 기대를 재편하고 있다. 당초 50bp(베이시스 포인트)의 공격적인 금리 인하를 예상했던 트레이더들은 이제 25bp의 소폭 인하로 선회하고 있으며, 최근 몇 시간 동안 금리 인하 사이클의 중단 가능성에 대한 기대가 급격히 상승했다.

11월 연준 금리 인하는 위험에 직면: 강력한 데이터, 유가 상승에 유명 투자자가 동결을 예상

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피치 레이팅스(Fitch Ratings)는 목요일 미국 국가신용등급을 &#39;AA+&#39;로 재확인하고 안정적인 전망을 제시하며 높은 1인당 국민소득과 미국 달러가 제공하는 재정적 유연성 등의 장점을 언급했다.

피치는 미국의 &#39;AA+&#39; 신용등급을 재확인하면서, &#34;부채 부담이 커지고 있다&#34;고 경고

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LEMB

신흥 경제국의 채권 시장은 연방준비제도(연준)가 금리 인하를 향한 정책 전환에 가까워지고 있다는 기대감이 커지면서 최근 세션에서 강한 상승세를 보였다. %

달러 약세와 연준의 금리 인하 기대로 신흥 시장 채권이 2년 이상의 최고치로 상승

When it comes to modern politics, it's not just about policies – it's about how you sell them. And according to billionaire entrepreneur Mark Cuban, Democrats and Republicans are playing vastly different games when it comes to winning over voters.
Cuban's comments came during a <a href="https://bsky.app/profile/mcuban.bsky.social/post/3lfiyz2sycs2d">discussion</a> on Bluesky about job growth under President Joe Biden. While Biden boasts impressive numbers – 16.1 million jobs <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2025/01/10/statement-from-president-joe-biden-on-the-december-2024-jobs-report/">created</a>, more than the full terms of Trump, Obama or George W. Bush–Cuban thinks these numbers aren't connecting with everyday people the way they should.
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<li>Deloitte's fastest-growing software company partners with Amazon, Walmart &amp; Target – <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/money/mode-mobile-2">Many are rushing to grab 4,000 of its pre-IPO shares for just $0.26/share!</a></li>
</ul>
The conversation started when Peter Baker, chief White House Correspondent for The New York Times and MSNBC analyst, shared an Axios article that highlighted how more jobs have been created under Biden than during the full terms of Trump, Obama or Bush 43.
In response, journalist Kara Swisher said, &#8220;It is truly about who tells a better story – or really a story people want to hear and makes them see what they believe rather than believe what they see.&#8221;
Cuban replied, &#8220;The reality is that Salesmanship is the differentiation between the two parties. The Dems couldn&#8217;t sell dollar bills for 50c. Trump has found his audience and can sell them dollar bills for $5. When everything is a story the algorithm flashes at you as you scroll, you better be selling fast.&#8221;
See Also: Built on the trusted network of Fortune 500 companies, <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/money/web3-enabler-the-most-boring-blockchain-company-partners-with-salesforce">this blockchain company partners with Salesforce to uproot lengthy and expensive B2B transactions, and you can invest with just $100.</a>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">The Numbers Don't Lie</h2>
Axios reported that the U.S. economy has added more jobs under Biden than any of his recent predecessors. In 2024 alone, 2.23 million jobs were created, <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/01/42912480/us-economy-adds-256000-payrolls-in-december-as-tight-labor-market-tops-forecasts-dollar-treasury-yields-spike">including 256,000 in December</a>. Here's how it stacks up:
<ul>
<li>Joe Biden (2021–2024): +16.1 million jobs</li>
<li>Donald Trump (2017–2020): -2.1 million jobs (pandemic losses; pre-pandemic gains: +6.6 million)</li>
<li>Barack Obama (2009–2016): +7.1 million jobs</li>
<li>George W. Bush (2001–2008): +5.2 million jobs</li>
</ul>
By comparison, Bill Clinton's presidency saw a whopping 23 million jobs added. However, Biden's annual average growth is higher, driven by the post-pandemic recovery. Despite these numbers, Cuban argues that the Democrats are failing to share this message and connect with voters.
Trending: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/money/qnetic-2">This 12,000 RPM Spinning Battery With Over $100 Million In LOIs Could Be The Missing Link For Green Energy — Here&#8217;s Why Early Investors Are Flocking To Invest Before Funding Closes</a>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Trump's Masterclass in Selling</h2>
Trump, on the other hand, has mastered the art of selling. He understands his audience and crafts simple, catchy ideas that stick. From rallies to social media posts, he's turned complicated issues into statements his supporters can get behind.
Cuban's metaphor about dollar bills stresses the stark difference in approach. While Trump can persuade his followers to buy into his vision – even at a premium – the Democrats struggle to make their case even when the value is obvious.
After all, Trump famously said in 2016, &#8220;I could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody and I wouldn&#8217;t lose any voters. It&#8217;s, like, incredible.&#8221;
Cuban's critique is a wake-up call for Democrats to rethink their approach. Biden's job growth numbers are strong, but without a good story to back them up, they're being drowned out by louder, flashier messages from Republicans.
In a world driven by algorithms and attention spans measured in seconds, the ability to sell a story is a necessity. As Cuban points out, that&#8217;s where the Democrats are failing.
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<li>Inspired by Uber and Airbnb &#8211; Deloitte's fastest-growing software company is transforming 7 billion smartphones into income-generating assets &#8211; <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/money/mode-mobile-2">with $1,000 you can invest at just $0.26/share!</a></li>
<li>According to Juniper Research, the total value of B2B cross-border payments stored on the blockchain is projected to exceed $4.4 trillion — <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/money/web3-enabler-future-of-enterprise-transactions">Join the first company to bring blockchain payments to Salesforce early with just $100.</a></li>
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News

Mark Cuban Says Trump's Messaging Skills Overshadow Biden's 16 Million Jobs–'He Can Sell Them Dollar Bills For $5'

Online trading platform Robinhood reportedly transferred a whopping 131 million Dogecoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/doge/usd">DOGE</a>) within the span of an hour, sparking intrigue and <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/24/12/42256959/dogecoin-trading-volume-skyrockets-76-indicating-potential-major-price-upswing">speculation among crypto enthusiasts</a>.
What Happened: According to <a href="https://whale-alert.io/transaction/dogecoin/942ce5c784b2e9f4d6c5b0fde2c028767d54eefd13c00068b10c71c543c80935">data</a>, this massive amount of DOGE was moved in two significant transactions.
The initial&nbsp;transaction involved the transfer of&nbsp;80,452,117 DOGE, valued at approximately&nbsp;$33,127,063, from Robinhood to an&nbsp;unidentified wallet. 
The subsequent transaction witnessed&nbsp;51,954,195 DOGE, worth around $21,334,106,&nbsp;being transferred from Robinhood to leading cryptocurrency exchange,&nbsp;Coinbase.
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">&#x1f6a8; &#x1f6a8; 80,452,117 <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/DOGE?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#DOGE</a> (33,127,063 USD) transferred from <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Robinhood?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Robinhood</a> to unknown wallet<a href="https://t.co/FV4f1wCkh1">https://t.co/FV4f1wCkh1</a>
&mdash; Whale Alert (@whale_alert) <a href="https://twitter.com/whale_alert/status/1880312975711461739?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 17, 2025</a></blockquote>
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These considerable transactions could&nbsp;be associated with whales or&nbsp;institutional entities. The transfer to Coinbase might imply&nbsp;a potential sale or preparation&nbsp;for trading activity. 
Also Read: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/24/12/42497156/dogecoin-poised-for-85-surge-as-whales-accumulate-130-billion-doge">Dogecoin Poised For 85% Surge As Whales Accumulate 130 Billion DOGE</a>
Conversely,&nbsp;the transfer to an unknown&nbsp;wallet could suggest private custody or acquisition&nbsp;by a large holder or&nbsp;whale. Nevertheless, the precise motive behind the transfers remains a mystery.
Why It Matters: These recent transactions underscore the increasing activity and interest in DOGE. The transfers could potentially indicate a shift in the market dynamics, with large players possibly moving their assets for various strategic reasons. However, without concrete information, these remain speculative assumptions.
The movement of such a large amount of DOGE also highlights the role of Robinhood as a significant player in the crypto trading space. The platform&#8217;s involvement in these transactions could have implications for its user base and the broader crypto market.
Read Next
<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/24/12/42380572/dogecoins-whopping-60-9b-movement-in-24-hours-a-bullish-sign" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Dogecoin's Whopping 60.9B Movement In 24 Hours: A Bullish Sign?</a>

Coverage of Bitcoin, Etherum, Ripple and all the latest digital currencies.

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$DOGE

Robinhood Moves 131 Million DOGE In An Hour: What's Happening?

Billionaire hedge fund manager Stanley Druckenmiller regrets the decision to sell his fund&#8217;s stake in Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>), a frontrunner in the artificial intelligence sector.
What Happened: In an interview with Bloomberg last year, Druckenmiller confessed that offloading Nvidia was a &#8220;big mistake.&#8221; The decision was primarily driven by the stock&#8217;s valuation, given that its price had tripled within a span of a year.
Nvidia, a significant player in the AI realm, has been registering&nbsp;record revenue and profit growth,&nbsp;courtesy of its industry-leading graphics processing unit (GPU) technology. 
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true"><a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%24NVDA&amp;src=ctag&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">$NVDA</a> Druckenmiller says selling Nvidia was a &quot;big mistake.&quot; &quot;I&#39;ve made so many mistake in my investment career, one of them was I sold all my Nvidia probably somewhere between $800 and $950.&quot; &quot;Yes, I think Nvidia is a wonderful company and were the price to come down we&#39;d get… <a href="https://t.co/egL9SBZJCA">pic.twitter.com/egL9SBZJCA</a>
&mdash; Hedge Vision (@HedgeVision) <a href="https://twitter.com/HedgeVision/status/1846605054251348468?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 16, 2024</a></blockquote>
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Despite Druckenmiller&#8217;s remorse, other billionaire investors like Ken Griffin of Citadel and David Shaw of D.E. Shaw have also downsized their Nvidia holdings.&nbsp;David Tepper of Appaloosa Management&nbsp;offloaded a substantial chunk of his Nvidia stake due to uncertainties surrounding long-term performance.
Also Read: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/25/01/42935107/peter-lynchs-money-making-advice-when-things-go-from-terrible-to-semi-terrible-to-ok-you-can-make-a-lot-of-money">Peter Lynch&#8217;s Money-Making Advice: &#8216;When Things Go From Terrible to Semi-Terrible to OK, You Can Make a Lot of Money&#8217;</a>
While Nvidia continues to reign supreme in the GPU market, several of its clients,&nbsp;including Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Tesla,&nbsp;and Meta Platforms, are venturing into chip development. This could potentially decelerate Nvidia&#8217;s growth due to heightened competition.
Despite the promising outlook, some speculate that the stock&#8217;s recent surge is not entirely rooted in solid fundamentals, but is more likely a result of clever marketing strategies in the run-up to the Blackwell launch.
Why It Matters: The regret expressed by Druckenmiller underscores the potential of Nvidia and the AI industry. Despite the stock&#8217;s high valuation and increased competition, Nvidia&#8217;s innovative technology and potential revenue growth make it a key player in the market. 
However, the decisions of other billionaire investors to reduce their positions highlight the uncertainties surrounding the company&#8217;s long-term performance. 
Read Next
<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/24/12/42499608/investment-guru-peter-lynch-if-you-cant-explain-to-an-11-year-old-in-2-minutes-or-less-why-you-own-t" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Investment Guru Peter Lynch: ‘If You Can&#8217;t Explain To An 11-Year-Old In 2 Minutes Or Less Why You Own The Stock, You Shouldn&#8217;t Own It&#8217;</a>
Image: Wikimedia Commons

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NVDA

Billionaire Stanley Druckenmiller: Selling This AI Stock Was a 'Big Mistake'

President-elect Donald Trump said Saturday that he may provide a 90-day extension to ByteDance-owned TikTok to delay or prevent a ban in the U.S.
What Happened: During an interview with NBC on Saturday, Trump suggested that he is &#8220;most likely&#8221; to grant TikTok a 90-day extension from a potential U.S. ban.
"I think that would be, certainly, an option that we look at. The 90-day extension is something that will be most likely done, because it's appropriate. You know, it's appropriate. We have to look at it carefully. It's a very big situation," Trump said.
This extension would provide ByteDance additional time to sell to a non-Chinese buyer, in compliance with the law enacted by President Joe Biden last year. However, Trump&#8217;s final decision on this matter is still pending.
As reported <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-likely-give-tiktok-90-day-extension-avoid-ban-rcna188258">by</a> NBC News, the existing deadline for TikTok&#8217;s compliance is midnight Sunday. An extension announced on Monday might not be able to prevent the app from going offline for at least a day. The future of TikTok has been a major concern during the last days of the Biden administration.
The Biden administration has consistently stated that it does not intend to enforce the law, thereby shifting the responsibility to the incoming Trump administration. However, TikTok expressed apprehensions on Friday that the assurances from the White House might&nbsp;not be enough to prevent&nbsp;the app from being shut down.
Also Read: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/01/43073056/tiktok-says-it-will-be-forced-to-go-dark-in-us-on-jan-19-after-supreme-court-upholds-ban">TikTok Says It Will Be &#8216;Forced To Go Dark&#8217; In US On Jan 19 After Supreme Court Upholds Ban</a>
Trump&#8217;s potential support for TikTok marks a significant departure from his previous&nbsp;stance during his first term,&nbsp;when he attempted to ban the app along with&nbsp;the Chinese messaging app WeChat.&nbsp;
Meanwhile, on Saturday, the Biden administration called TikTok&#8217;s statement on going dark on Sunday a &#8220;stunt.&#8221;
&#8220;It is a stunt, and we see no reason for TikTok or other companies to take actions in the next few days before the Trump Administration takes office on Monday,&#8221; White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre told Reuters. 
&#8220;We have laid out our position clearly and straightforwardly: actions to implement this law will fall to the next administration. So TikTok and other companies should take up concerns with them.&#8221;
&#8220;President Biden&#8217;s position on TikTok has been clear for months, including since Congress sent a bill in overwhelming, bipartisan fashion to the President&#8217;s desk: TikTok should remain available to Americans, but simply under American ownership or other ownership that addresses the national security concerns identified by Congress in developing this law,&#8221; Jean-Pierre added in the statement.
Why It Matters: TikTok&#8217;s potential ban in the US has been a contentious issue, with the app&#8217;s fate hanging in the balance during the transition between the Biden and Trump administrations. 
The proposed 90-day extension could provide much-needed respite for TikTok and its parent company, ByteDance, allowing them additional time to comply with US regulations. 
However, the future of the app in the US market remains uncertain until a final decision is made by the incoming Trump administration.
Read Next
<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/09/40866761/is-amazon-eyeing-tiktok-for-a-possible-acquisition">Is Amazon Eyeing TikTok For A Possible Acquisition?</a>
Image: Shutterstock

Social Media

Tech

Trump Floats Possibility of 90-Day Reprieve From TikTok Ban

Billionaire entrepreneur Mark Cuban has shown interest in funding a TikTok alternative. This move comes in light of the potential shutdown of TikTok this weekend, with Cuban considering leveraging the protocol developed by microblogging site Bluesky.
What Happened: Cuban is contemplating this step in response to legislation requiring TikTok to sell its platform or face a nationwide ban. ByteDance, the Chinese parent company of TikTok, has continually asserted that it is not for sale.
In a TikTok video on his account Tuesday, Cuban proposed this&nbsp;alternative version of the video-sharing&nbsp;app. 
He said, &#8220;There&#8217;s an app called Bluesky and it&#8217;s built on the AT Protocol. I would be open to investing in supporting anybody — or somebody who creates a TikTok replacement built on the AT Protocol.&#8221;
Bluesky, a decentralized social media platform, enables users to host their data on servers not owned by the company. The platform, created by Twitter founder Jack Dorsey in 2019, has expanded to a user base of over 27 million people, <a href="https://gizmodo.com/mark-cuban-says-hell-back-a-tiktok-alternative-built-off-blueskys-protocol-2000551599">reports</a> Gizmodo.
Also Read: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/01/43073056/tiktok-says-it-will-be-forced-to-go-dark-in-us-on-jan-19-after-supreme-court-upholds-ban">TikTok Says It Will Be &#8216;Forced To Go Dark&#8217; In US On Jan 19 After Supreme Court Upholds Ban</a>
However, the fate of TikTok&#8217;s U.S. app remains uncertain. Reports suggest that the company is seeking a last-minute reprieve from incoming President Donald Trump. TikTok CEO Shou Chew is scheduled to attend Trump&#8217;s inauguration, and Trump is reportedly contemplating an executive order to save the platform.
Why It Matters: The potential shutdown of TikTok in the U.S. has sparked interest in alternatives to the popular video-sharing platform. Cuban&#8217;s proposal of a TikTok alternative based on Bluesky&#8217;s protocol could potentially offer a new avenue for social media users, especially with the growing concerns over data privacy. 
The move also highlights the increasing interest in decentralized social media platforms, which offer users more control over their data. 
The unfolding events surrounding TikTok&#8217;s future in the U.S. will undoubtedly have significant implications for the social media landscape.
Read Next
<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/09/40866761/is-amazon-eyeing-tiktok-for-a-possible-acquisition">Is Amazon Eyeing TikTok For A Possible Acquisition?</a>

Mark Cuban Open To Financing TikTok Alternative Based on Bluesky Protocol

The cryptocurrency market saw a notable surge on Saturday. Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>), Ethereum (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/eth/usd">ETH</a>) and Dogecoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/doge/usd">DOGE</a>) all experienced a rise in value, as traders anticipate a potential <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/24/12/42379899/trump-fuels-bitcoin-rally-but-where-will-it-go-next-year">&#8216;Trump bump&#8217; with the upcoming second Donald Trump presidency.</a>
What Happened: The crypto market sprung to life on the final trading day before the Trump&nbsp;administration takes over. Bitcoin spearheaded the rally, surging 2.81% and almost touching&nbsp;$104,987 per token. Ethereum (ETH&nbsp;-0.22%) and Dogecoin (DOGE -0.16%) also saw gains.
There is widespread speculation that President-elect Trump will prioritize cryptocurrency, with rumors of an executive order on his first day in office. This might include the appointment of a more crypto-friendly chairman for the Securities and Exchange Commission.
However, traders are advised to be cautious of the speed of policy changes in Washington. While changes to the industry&#8217;s rules may require congressional action, this doesn&#8217;t necessarily translate to a direct value gain for meme coins and blockchain tokens.
Instead, it could lead to&nbsp;assets like stocks and bonds&nbsp;trading&nbsp;on the blockchain and more&nbsp;business formation taking place on the blockchain.
Also Read: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/24/12/42499633/exclusive-eric-trump-declares-bitcoin-the-future-details-tax-free-crypto-goals-for-trump-presidency">EXCLUSIVE: Eric Trump Declares Bitcoin The Future, Details Tax-Free Crypto Goals For Trump Presidency</a>
Despite the current speculation-driven surge, the market may face disappointment if the news doesn&#8217;t meet high expectations. 
The Federal Reserve cannot&nbsp;make Bitcoin or any other&nbsp;cryptocurrency a reserve currency without&nbsp;Congressional action, which seems unlikely in the current political climate.
The market movement today is largely driven by speculation that Trump will be beneficial for the crypto market. However, similar speculation in 2021 led to a market crash in 2022, cautioning investors against buying tokens based solely on speculation.
Why It Matters: The potential for a &#8216;Trump bump&#8217; in the cryptocurrency market is significant, given the President-elect&#8217;s rumored focus on this sector. 
However, the history of speculation-driven surges and crashes in the crypto market serves as a warning to investors. The potential for policy changes under the new administration could have far-reaching implications for the industry, but these changes are uncertain and could take time to implement. 
Read Next
<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/24/07/40001426/trump-aims-to-make-us-crypto-capital-of-the-planet-well-get-it-done" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Trump Aims To Make US ‘Crypto Capital Of The Planet': ‘We'll Get It Done'</a>
Image: Midjourney

$BTC

$ETH

Bitcoin, Ethereum and Dogecoin Spike on Optimism Over New Trump Presidency

As Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) nears the $106,000 mark, the probability of the U.S. establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve has surged to <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/24/11/42049183/heres-how-a-bitcoin-whale-nets-179m-from-a-120-investment">an all-time high of 70%</a>.
What Happened: Well-known venture capitalist and Bitcoin enthusiast Anthony Pompliano shared data indicating a significant increase in the likelihood of incoming president Donald Trump creating a strategic Bitcoin reserve in 2025.
This information was shared as Bitcoin briefly hit the $106,000 mark before experiencing a minor pullback. The cryptocurrency is currently trading at $103,120 per coin, marking&nbsp;a 2.71% decline within several&nbsp;hours.
The speculation surrounding the new presidential administration&#8217;s plans to approve&nbsp;the creation of a strategic&nbsp;Bitcoin reserve has been a key factor in the cryptocurrency&#8217;s recent price surge. 
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">The odds of a strategic bitcoin reserve just hit an all-time high of 70%. <a href="https://t.co/A1ZjppwKQj">pic.twitter.com/A1ZjppwKQj</a>
&mdash; Anthony Pompliano &#x1f32a; (@APompliano) <a href="https://twitter.com/APompliano/status/1880461596172161257?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 18, 2025</a></blockquote>
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Another significant factor driving Bitcoin&#8217;s price is the upcoming inauguration of President Donald Trump on January 20.
Also Read:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/25/01/42933328/analyst-warns-of-bitcoins-uncertain-future-amid-key-support-breakdown-it-could-get-ugly" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Analyst Warns of Bitcoin's Uncertain Future Amid Key Support Breakdown: ‘It Could Get Ugly'</a> 
The Department of Justice (DOJ) has also recently received court permission to sell 69,370 BTC seized from a Silk Road hacker in 2020.
The sale could net the US government over $7 billion, but many in the crypto community hope President Trump will prevent the sale and retain the Bitcoin for the proposed strategic reserve.
Why It Matters: The establishment of a strategic Bitcoin reserve by the US government would be a significant endorsement for the cryptocurrency, potentially driving its value even higher. 
The move would also mark a shift in the government&#8217;s stance towards cryptocurrencies, which have been viewed with skepticism by some regulators.
The potential sale of the seized Bitcoin by the DOJ could also have a significant impact on the market. If the sale goes ahead, it could flood the market with Bitcoin, potentially driving down the price. 
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Image: Shutterstock

Odds of US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Under Trump Skyrocket as BTC Nears $106,000

New York Mayor Eric Adams met with President-elect Donald Trump at his West Palm Beach golf club <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/24/12/42323060/nyc-mayor-eric-adams-takes-victory-lap-remember-yall-laughed-when-i-first-got-my-bitcoin-whos-laughing-now" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">just days before the inauguration</a>.
The meeting, which lasted around an hour, focused on a range of issues concerning New York City, including border security, the deportation of violent offenders, and ways the federal government could assist with the city&#8217;s needs, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.cbsnews.com/newyork/news/eric-adams-donald-trump-meeting/" rel="noreferrer noopener">reports</a> CBS News.
Adams also highlighted discussions on improving public safety through the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas and the potential for bringing manufacturing jobs back to New York, especially in the Bronx.
In a statement, Adams described the conversation as productive, emphasizing the importance of federal investments in New York, particularly regarding infrastructure and public safety, CBS News adds. He noted that working with the federal government is crucial to the success of New York City.
While the meeting itself was not surprising, as Adams has consistently shown a willingness to engage with all levels of government, some of his political opponents raised concerns about an ulterior motive.
Read Now: <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/01/43064144/wall-street-roars-ahead-of-trumps-inauguration-intel-rallies-bitcoin-tops-105000-whats-driving-markets-friday" rel="noreferrer noopener">Wall Street Roars Ahead Of Trump's Inauguration, Intel Rallies, Bitcoin Tops $105,000: What's Driving Markets Friday?</a>
There were speculations that Adams might be seeking a pardon from Trump in light of his ongoing corruption charges.
Adams, however, dismissed these claims, stating that his primary focus was on securing federal assistance for New York.
He reaffirmed his intention to collaborate with the incoming administration for the benefit of the city&#8217;s residents, CBS News adds.
This meeting came as preparations were underway for Trump's inauguration, including heightened security measures in Washington, D.C. With the inauguration now moved indoors due to freezing temperatures, security concerns remain a priority as 250,000 guests, including prominent figures, prepare to attend.
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Equities

General

Mayor Eric Adams Meets Donald Trump Before Inauguration: Focus on NYC Priorities and Federal Help

In the wake of the launch of a meme coin themed to President-elect Donald Trump, the cryptocurrency Solana (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/sol/usd">SOL</a>) has surged 15% on Saturday.
What Happened: According to Coinmarketcap, the SOL token of Solana experienced a significant value increase following the launch of a Trump-themed meme coin on the Solana blockchain. 
On Saturday, SOL&#8217;s price soared more than 15% to $254.71. The newly introduced meme coin, named &#8220;Official Trump&#8221; (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/">TRUMP</a>), was unveiled on Trump&#8217;s social media accounts late Friday and has since garnered more than $5 billion, making it the largest meme coin on the Solana network, according <a href="https://www.coingecko.com/en/categories/solana-meme-coins">to</a> CoinGecko.
Trump himself, and entities directly connected to him, have earned as much as $25 billion from the offering, <a href="https://www.axios.com/2025/01/18/trump-meme-coin-25-billion">according</a> to Axios.
This development is timed ahead of Trump&#8217;s inauguration on Monday, which is anticipated to usher in a new era of innovation and productivity in the crypto industry. It also coincides with the conclusion of Gary Gensler&#8216;s term as chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Also Read: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/25/01/43073327/official-trump-memecoin-jumps-over-260-ahead-of-president-elects-white-house-inauguration-market-cap-reaches-whopping-4-billion-within-8-hours-of-launch">&#8216;Official Trump&#8217; Memecoin Jumps Over 260% Ahead Of President-Elect&#8217;s White House Inauguration</a>
Solana,&nbsp;the fourth-largest cryptocurrency by market&nbsp;cap, was established in 2020 as a quicker and more affordable alternative to Ethereum (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/eth/usd">ETH</a>). It hosts&nbsp;popular meme coins like dogwifhat and&nbsp;Pudgy Penguins, in addition to&nbsp;decentralized finance (DeFi) and gaming&nbsp;projects.
The decision deadline&nbsp;for potential ETFs from Bitwise,&nbsp;VanEck, 21Shares, and Canary is January 25. ProShares&nbsp;also filed for four different&nbsp;ETFs based on SOL on Friday.
Why It Matters: The introduction of the Trump-themed memecoin and its subsequent success highlights the growing influence of political figures on the cryptocurrency market. 
The surge in Solana&#8217;s value following the meme coin&#8217;s launch underscores the potential of such themed coins to drive market trends. With the end of Gensler&#8217;s term, the crypto industry is poised for potential regulatory changes that could further impact the market dynamics. 
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$SOL

$TRUMP

Solana Skyrockets, Sees 15% Surge Following Launch Of Trump-Themed Meme Coin

Major players in the cryptocurrency industry have made substantial donations to President-elect <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/24/12/42379899/trump-fuels-bitcoin-rally-but-where-will-it-go-next-year">Donald Trump&#8216;s inaugural fund</a>.
What Happened: Companies such as&nbsp;Ripple,&nbsp;Coinbase,&nbsp;Kraken,&nbsp;Robinhood, and&nbsp;Circle&nbsp;have collectively donated a minimum of $10 million to the inauguration fund since Election Day. 
According to a report <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2025/01/17/crypto-money-trump-inauguration-00199088">by</a> Politico, these contributions will be used to finance official events related to the inauguration, symbolizing the industry&#8217;s support for Trump, who is anticipated to be the first U.S. president with a clear pro-crypto stance.
The cryptocurrency industry also hosted a sold-out unofficial inaugural ball on Friday night at the Andrew W. Mellon Auditorium in Washington. The event, which included Snoop Dogg as a musical guest, was partly organized by David Bailey, who manages a Bitcoin conference where Trump was a speaker last summer.
Also Read: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/24/12/42499633/exclusive-eric-trump-declares-bitcoin-the-future-details-tax-free-crypto-goals-for-trump-presidency">EXCLUSIVE: Eric Trump Declares Bitcoin The Future, Details Tax-Free Crypto Goals For Trump Presidency</a>
Ripple, currently facing&nbsp;enforcement action from the SEC, has&nbsp;donated $5 million in digital&nbsp;tokens to the inaugural committee.&nbsp;U.S. crypto exchanges Coinbase and&nbsp;Kraken, as well as stablecoin company Circle, each donated $1 million. Online brokerage Robinhood made a contribution of $2 million.
Why It Matters: These donations have sparked controversy, with Democrats and watchdog groups accusing the president of trading influence. However, the crypto industry perceives this as a celebratory moment and a chance to interact with the incoming administration. 
Amid ongoing regulatory uncertainties, these firms are likely seeking to build a strong relationship with the new administration, hoping for a more favorable regulatory climate for cryptocurrencies.
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Crypto Firms Donate Millions to Trump Inaugural Fund, Host Unofficial Ball Featuring Snoop Dogg

According to the New York Post. According to the New York Post, creating &#8220;a modern-day Berkshire Hathaway&#8221; is no mean feat, but that&#8217;s exactly what billionaire investor and hedge fund manager <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/politics/25/01/42991402/bill-ackman-backs-former-hedge-funder-whitney-tilson-for-nyc-mayor">Bill Ackman</a> intends to do. The Pershing Square CEO plans to increase his stake in real estate company Howard Hughes Holdings and take the company private.&nbsp;
Ackman said in a letter to investors that Pershing currently holds a 37.6% stake in HHH and plans to offer $85 a share to buy out the rest of the firm.
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<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Emulating The Buffet Playbook</h2>
&#8220;With apologies to Mr. Buffet, HHH would become a modern-day <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/personal-finance/25/01/43004055/warren-buffett-has-advice-for-people-trying-to-get-rich-by-copying-his-moves-you-can-piggyback-but-you-cant-buy-the-whole-businesses">Berkshire Hathaway </a>that would acquire controlling interests in operating companies,&#8221; Ackman, 58, who has a net worth of $9.2 billion, wrote.&nbsp;
Following the news, Howard Hughes shares increased 9.5% to $78.62. Ackman has been involved with the real estate company for a decade and only stepped down from its board in April after serving as its chairman since 2010.
&#8220;We, like other long-term shareholders and this board, have been displeased with the company&#8217;s stock price performance,&#8221; Ackman said in the letter, according to<a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/billionaire-ackmans-pershing-square-offers-85-per-share-rest-howard-hughes-2025-01-13/#:~:text=Ackman%20has%20been%20personally%20involved,Sign%20up%20here."> Reuters</a>. When the deal is complete, it would increase Pershing Square&#8217;s stake in Howard Hughes to somewhere between 61% and 69%, depending on how many investors agree to be bought out from the 38% it currently holds.
See Also: CEO of Integris gathered a team of senior investment managers who have $34.22 billion in combined owned and managed assets in the West Coast —<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/money/integris"> here&#8217;s how to invest in their private credit fund that targets 12% annual interest rate.</a>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">The Roots Of Howard Hughes</h2>
Howard Hughes was an offshoot of real estate investment trust General Growth Properties, forming its own entity in 2010. It owns and manages various types of US real estate, including commercial, residential and mixed-use. It has a market value of $3.6 billion.&nbsp;
Ackman formed Pershing Square in 2004. One of his most notable moves was the rescue of mall operator General Growth Properties, from which he became involved in Howard Hughes. According to Forbes, Pershing Square&#8217;s stock portfolio is concentrated in seven companies, including Chipotle, Hilton and Google parent Alphabet, the latter of which he has over 20% of its stock invested, according to<a href="https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/02/26/billionaire-bill-ackman-20-percent-1-stock/#:~:text=resources%2C%20and%20more.-,Billionaire%20Bill%20Ackman%20Has%20Nearly%2020%25%20of%20His%20Pershing%20Square,in%201%20%22Magnificent%20Seven%22%20Stock&amp;text=Bill%20Ackman's%20firm%20took%20advantage,strength%20are%20all%20attractive%20traits"> </a>The Motley Fool. Ackman is notable amongst other fund managers because of his large social media following with over a million followers on X.&nbsp;
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<h2 class="wp-block-heading">A Shrewd Gamble On Alphabet</h2>
Ackman has been bullish on Google&#8217;s parent company, <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/tech/25/01/43014233/google-expands-collaboration-with-associated-press-to-deliver-up-to-date-information-in-gemini-ai-app">Alphabet</a>. When Google&#8217;s answer to ChatGPT, Bard, stumbled and the share price dropped, Ackman began aggressively buying stock. His Pershing Square hedge fund owns class A and class C shares of the tech giant worth roughly $2.1 billion as of June 30, 2024. It was a prescient move. In the second quarter of 2024, Google Cloud revenue increased 29% to $10.3 billion. Its operating income almost tripled year over year to $1.17 billion. Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai said in the Q2 earnings call that his company&#8217;s generative AI solutions &#8220;have already generated billions in revenues and are being used by more than 2 million developers.&#8221;
In emulating Berkshire Hathaway with his Howard Hughes purchase, Ackman is again carefully treading in Warren Buffet&#8217;s footsteps. Preferring to look at a company&#8217;s enduring competitive advantage over short-term stumbles is a classic Berkshire Hathaway move. Ackman has been quite open about sticking to the Buffet playbook. &#8220;I&#8217;ve been a kind of Warren Buffett devotee,&#8221; he told<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/28/cnbc-transcript-pershing-square-capital-management-ceo-bill-ackman-speaks-with-cnbcs-scott-wapner-live-during-the-cnbc-delivering-alpha-conference-today.html"> CNBC</a> in 2023. &#8220;He&#8217;s been my unofficial mentor for many years.&#8221;&nbsp;
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Real Estate

Bill Ackman Offers $1B For Real Estate Giant Howard Hughes To Emulate Berkshire Hathaway

President-elect <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/donald-trump" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Donald Trump</a> has confirmed that his inaugural address on Monday will take place indoors in the Capitol Rotunda due to dangerously <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/travel/25/01/43036258/polar-vortex-brings-winters-coldest-air-for-trumps-inauguration-day-what-it-means-for-utilities-retailers-energy-stocks" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">cold weather in Washington, D.C.</a>
The move comes as temperatures are expected to plunge into the teens, with the wind chill making it feel even colder, BBC <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ceq9917rl18o" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">reports</a>.
Trump announced the move indoors on his Truth Social platform, saying he didn't want anyone to be harmed by the extreme conditions, particularly the tens of thousands of law enforcement, first responders, and supporters expected to attend.
The inaugural parade, as well as the three official inaugural balls, will also be moved indoors to the Capital One Arena in downtown Washington, about a mile from the Capitol.
While the change in venue is a historic first for a U.S. presidential inauguration, it is not unprecedented.
The last time an inauguration was held indoors was in 1985 at the start of President Ronald Reagan's second term, when similarly harsh weather forced the ceremony indoors, BBC adds.
Also Read:<a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/25/01/43065423/donald-trump-to-mention-bitcoin-or-crypto-at-the-inauguration-polymarket-traders-say-theres-a-chance" rel="noreferrer noopener"> Donald Trump To Mention Bitcoin Or Crypto At The Inauguration? Polymarket Traders Say There&#8217;s A Chance</a>
Temperatures in Washington on Inauguration Day are expected to be unusually cold, with lows dipping to 12°F (-11°C) and highs reaching only 23°F (-5°C).
The cold is part of a larger polar vortex affecting much of the country.
For those planning to attend, Trump advised on social media to "dress warmly" if they decide to brave the elements, though he emphasized that everyone's safety would come first, BBC reports.
In addition to the indoor address, a live viewing of the inaugural speech will be available at the Capital One Arena.
Trump, who plans to visit the arena after his swearing-in ceremony, expressed confidence that the event would still be memorable and safe for all involved.
Despite the changes, Trump reassured his supporters that the inauguration would still be a historic occasion, calling for a united effort to "Make America Great Again."
Although attendance will be limited due to the indoor setting, the event will be broadcast widely, allowing many to witness the occasion from afar.
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Image: Shutterstock

Dangerous Temperatures Force Trump Inauguration Indoors

Top banks reported strong earnings this week, with impressive results from Wells Fargo &amp; Company (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/WFC#NYSE">WFC</a>) and Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GS#NYSE">GS</a>).
Despite significant gains in their stock prices, analysts believe these banks still have room for growth, thanks to lower price-to-earnings multiples compared to the broader market, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.cnbc.com/2025/01/17/jim-cramer-parses-bank-earnings-stocks-have-quite-a-bit-more-upside.html" rel="noreferrer noopener">reports</a> CNBC.
Investors who owned shares in these banks likely benefitted from the positive earnings reports, with some experts suggesting adding one or two of these names to portfolios moving forward.
Jim Cramer, the host of CNBC&#8217;s &#8220;Mad Money,&#8221; reviewed the week&#8217;s earnings and expressed confidence in the banking sector&#8217;s continued potential.
Cramer also discussed how next week&#8217;s market could be influenced by the inauguration of President-elect Donald Trump, who is expected to take action on deregulation and other pro-business policies, CNBC reports.
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Earnings reports from Procter &amp; Gamble Company (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PG#NYSE">PG</a>) and American Express Company (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AXP#NYSE">AXP</a>) will also take center stage next week.
Cramer noted he is optimistic about results from 3M Company (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MMM#NYSE">MMM</a>) and United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UAL#NASDAQ">UAL</a>), predicting a strong quarter for both.
He is especially bullish on GE Vernova Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GEV#NYSE">GEV</a>), citing the growing demand for energy in the data center sector, though he is more cautious about Halliburton Company (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/HAL#NYSE">HAL</a>)&nbsp;&nbsp;due to market uncertainties.
With earnings rolling in and political changes ahead, investors should stay vigilant, as market conditions could shift quickly in the coming days. Cramer&#8217;s advice is to keep an eye on both corporate performance and potential regulatory changes under the new administration, CNBC adds.
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Movers

Jim Cramer's Market Outlook: Strong Earnings, Trump Inauguration, and What's Next for Investors

If your car has started breaking down or is racking up repair bills, it might be time for a replacement. But how much car can you afford?&nbsp;
Financial expert <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/24/12/42467913/dave-ramsey-warns-against-hammock-parenting-7-2-million-able-bodied-men-arent-even-looking-for-work-and-its-not-their-fault">Dave Ramsey</a> has a straightforward answer: only buy what you can pay for in cash. This principle could save you thousands and help you avoid the trap of long-term debt.
Financing might seem easy, but it can cost significantly more in the long run. As of late 2024, the average interest rate for a new-car loan was 6.6%, while used car loans averaged 10.8%, according to Edmunds.com.&nbsp;
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That means financing a $30,000 car for five years at 6.6% interest would add over $5,300 in extra costs. Ramsey's advice is simple: avoid the debt and stick to what you can pay up front.
To set your budget, start by looking at your savings.&nbsp;
How much can you spend without affecting your other financial priorities? If you have debt to pay off or are saving for a house, those goals should come first. If you're trading in your current car, tools like Kelley Blue Book can help estimate its value and add that to your budget.&nbsp;
Ramsey also recommends a key rule: the total value of all your vehicles should not exceed half your annual income. For example, if you earn $70,000 a year, your cars' combined value should stay under $35,000. This guideline helps prevent tying up too much of your wealth in assets that lose value over time.
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Depreciation is a big reason to think twice about buying a new car. According to a 2024 report by LeaseLoco, new cars can lose up to 20% of their value in the first year and nearly 50% within three years.&nbsp;
Ramsey suggests avoiding new cars unless you have a net worth of at least one million dollars. Opting for a reliable used car can save you thousands while still providing a dependable ride.
It's also important to factor in the cost of owning a car beyond the sticker price. In 2024, AAA estimated the average annual cost of owning a vehicle – including fuel, maintenance and insurance – at $12,297.&nbsp;
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According to CarEdge, luxury vehicles often incur higher maintenance and repair costs than standard cars. For instance, the 10-year maintenance cost for a BMW 7 Series is approximately $14,768, whereas a standard Toyota Camry averages around $4,203 over the same period.&nbsp;
Even hybrids and <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/startups/24/10/41198502/toyota-slows-down-ev-production-amid-industrywide-shift-heres-why-theyre-changing-course">electric vehicles</a> may not always provide the savings you expect, given their higher up front prices.
If your current vehicle still runs, Ramsey suggests keeping it while you save for your next one. Set a goal based on the cost of the car you want and divide that amount by the months you plan to save.&nbsp;
For instance, saving $1,250 monthly could get you $15,000 in a year – without a single loan payment. If your car breaks down unexpectedly, repairing it or using your emergency fund may be better than rushing into a new purchase.
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Personal Finance

Dave Ramsey Warns: 'Asking How Much a Month' Could Cost You $10,000 Extra On Your Car Purchase

Elon Musk has stirred the pot with a recent post on X shifting &#8220;from MAGA to MEGA&#8221; to &#8220;Make Europe Great Again!&#8221;
What Happened: On Saturday, Musk&nbsp;took to X to express his new vision, transitioning from MAGA to MEGA. His post has since garnered significant attention, with over 28.7 million views.
<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"> 
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">From MAGA to MEGA: Make Europe Great Again!
&mdash; Elon Musk (@elonmusk) <a href="https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1880536914690036015?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 18, 2025</a></blockquote>
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Musk&#8217;s post, &#8220;From MAGA to MEGA: Make&nbsp;Europe Great Again!&#8221; implies a shift in focus towards Europe, a region that has been a significant player in the global tech and automotive industries.
The slogan associated with Hungary&#8217;s hard-right Prime Minister Viktor Orban has sparked controversy among European political leaders.
Last week on Thursday, the European Commission demanded documents related to X&#8217;s &#8220;recommender systems,&#8221; which suggest content to users. 
Also Read: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/health-care/25/01/42935746/is-elon-musks-mental-health-a-cause-for-concern-biographer-thinks-so">Is Elon Musk&#8217;s Mental Health a Cause for Concern? Biographer Thinks So</a>
&#8220;Today&nbsp;we are taking further steps&nbsp;to shed light on the&nbsp;compliance of X's recommender systems&nbsp;with the obligations under the&nbsp;DSA,&#8221; stated Henna Virkunnen,&nbsp;Executive Vice-President for Tech Sovereignty,&nbsp;Security and Democracy.
Why It Matters: Musk&#8217;s tweet comes at a time when Europe is striving to establish itself as a leader in the tech and automotive sectors. His call to &#8220;Make Europe Great Again&#8221; could be seen as a rallying cry for European innovation and progress.
As the CEO of&nbsp;Tesla Inc.&nbsp;and&nbsp;SpaceX, Musk&#8217;s words carry weight in the industry. His endorsement of Europe&#8217;s potential could stimulate further growth and investment in the region.
However, Musk&#8217;s post also raises questions about his future plans. Could this be a hint towards a greater European focus for his companies, or is it merely a commentary on the current global landscape? Only time will tell.
Read Next
<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/12/42496864/exclusive-eric-trump-calls-elon-musk-albert-einstein-of-our-time-says-tesla-ceo-will-help-build-a-stronger-america">EXCLUSIVE: Eric Trump Calls Elon Musk &#8216;Albert Einstein Of Our Time,&#8217; Says Tesla CEO Will Help Build &#8216;A Stronger America&#8217;</a>
Image: Shutterstock

TSLA

Elon Musk Sparks Controversy With Hard-Right 'Make Europe Great Again!' Post

The cryptocurrency sector is optimistic of what is to come with Donald Trump serving as the next president. Optimism comes as many cryptocurrencies have hit all-time highs since Trump won the <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/24/11/41778425/bitcoins-all-time-high-a-groundbreaking-milestone-and-strong-post-election-rally-coming-ex">2024 presidential election.</a>
A new Benzinga reader poll predicts which cryptocurrency could have the best return early in Trump's presidency.
What Happened: Trump <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/25/01/43065423/donald-trump-to-mention-bitcoin-or-crypto-at-the-inauguration-polymarket-traders-say-theres-a-chance">will be sworn in </a>as the next president of the United States on Monday, marking his second non-consecutive term as the leader of the country.
The stock market will be closed on Monday in honor of Martin Luther King Jr. Day, which is a federal holiday.
While investors won't be able to buy and sell stocks that could be mentioned individually or part of sectors that are highlighted during Trump's inauguration speech, the cryptocurrency market will be open.
"Which crypto will pump the most on Donald Trump's Inauguration Day?" Benzinga recently asked readers.
Here were the results:
<ul>
<li>XRP Token (CRYTO:XRP): 41%</li>
<li>Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>): 35%</li>
<li>Dogecoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/doge/usd">DOGE</a>): 14%</li>
<li>None, Crypto Will Crash: 7%</li>
<li>Shiba Inu (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/shib/usd">SHIB</a>): 4%</li>
</ul>
The winner of the poll was XRP Token, which is one of the top gaining cryptocurrencies over the last year. XRP, which is from Ripple Labs, has been in the spotlight a lot recently, including thanks to a <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/25/01/42865935/trump-meets-top-ripple-executives-ceo-says-strong-start-to-2025-as-technicals-favor-xrp-bulls">visit by Ripple executives</a> to meet with Trump.
The poll saw only 7% of readers predict that cryptocurrency would crash on Monday, which could end up being the result of sell the news as cryptos trade higher ahead of Monday.
If Trump announces cryptocurrency related initiatives on Monday, the sector could see strength, but likewise cryptos could fall if he minimizes the sector in his speech.
Why It's Important: Benzinga readers have selected XRP and Bitcoin as winners in several polls, which won't make the latest results a huge surprise.
An early<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/24/12/42378513/can-bitcoin-ethereum-dogecoin-shiba-inu-or-solana-beat-xrp-in-2025-poll-says-yes-one-coin-stands-out"> December 2024 poll </a>asked Benzinga readers if any of several hand-picked cryptocurrencies would outperform XRP in 2025.
The results were:
<ul>
<li>Bitcoin: 28%</li>
<li>Solana: 15%</li>
<li>Dogecoin: 13%</li>
<li>Ethereum: 10%</li>
<li>Shiba Inu: 10%</li>
<li>Hedera: 1%</li>
<li>None of the Above: 24%</li>
</ul>
Bitcoin won the poll with 28% of readers believing the leading cryptocurrency will outperform the other options in 2025.
Ranking second in the poll was None of the Above, which means 24% of readers think XRP will outperform the other six cryptocurrencies including Bitcoin in 2025.
Here are the current returns of the cryptocurrencies in the new poll:
<ul>
<li>XRP: 1-Month +32.0%, 1-Year +478.1%</li>
<li>BTC: 1-Month: -1.6%, 1-Year +145.3%</li>
<li>DOGE: 1-Month +3.5%, 1-Year +414.9%</li>
<li>SHIB: 1-Month -0.9%, 1-Year +155.1%</li>
</ul>
XRP and Dogecoin have already had huge one-year gains and XRP is up significantly over the last month, which could make any additional gains on Monday icing on the cake as more eyes are on the cryptocurrency sector in 2025.
Read Next: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/01/43059744/exclusive-can-sp-500-repeat-large-gains-from-donald-trumps-first-term-a-second-time-around-readers-say-this-return-range-most-likely">EXCLUSIVE: Can S&amp;P 500 Repeat Large Gains From Donald Trump&#8217;s First Term A Second Time Around? Readers Say This Return Range Most Likely</a></li>
</ul>
The study was conducted by Benzinga from Jan. 16, 2025 through Jan. 17, 2025. It included the responses of a diverse population of adults 18 or older. Opting into the survey was completely voluntary, with no incentives offered to potential respondents. The study reflects results from 107 adults.

Exclusives

$SHIB

$XRP

EXCLUSIVE: Will Bitcoin, Dogecoin, Shiba Inu Or XRP Gain More On Trump's Inauguration Day? 41% Pick This Crypto

Donald Trump&#8217;s renewed push for control of Greenland comes as Denmark announces a $2 billion Arctic defense upgrade. This upgrade points to the strategic value of an island that hosts America&#8217;s northernmost military installation and holds vast mineral wealth.
Located just 1,500 kilometers from the North Pole, Greenland&#8217;s Pituffik Space Base houses 200 U.S. military personnel and 450 allied forces, forming an important part of America&#8217;s missile warning system.&nbsp;
According to a report issued by the Financial Times, the base could be the reason Trump calls the acquisition &#8220;an absolute necessity&#8221; for national security.
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<li>According to Juniper Research, the total value of B2B cross-border payments stored on the blockchain is projected to exceed $4.4 trillion — <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/money/web3-enabler-future-of-enterprise-transactions">Join the first company to bring blockchain payments to Salesforce early with just $100.</a></li>
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Denmark&#8217;s Christmas Eve announcement of major military investments, including new ships, drones and expanded facilities for F-35 aircraft, follows Trump&#8217;s refusal to rule out using force to gain control of the island. Danish Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen responded by offering to discuss &#8220;even more closely&#8221; coordinating with U.S. security interests.
The world&#8217;s largest island sits at a critical Arctic shipping crossroads and contains 25 of 34 minerals deemed strategically critical by European regulators, including materials essential for electric vehicles and military equipment. China&#8217;s <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/global/25/01/42884764/how-trump-could-impact-chinas-role-in-emerging-greenland-mining-frontier">dominant position in rare earth production</a> has heightened U.S. interest in the deposits.
See Also: ‘Scrolling To UBI' — Deloitte's #1 fastest-growing software company allows users to earn money on their phones. <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/money/mode-mobile-2">You can invest today for just $0.26/share with a $1000 minimum.</a>
Despite Trump&#8217;s focus on security, Greenland&#8217;s 57,000 residents maintain strong independence aspirations. Prime Minister Mute Egede, who has accelerated pushes for sovereignty, firmly said Greenland &#8220;is not for sale.&#8221; The territory currently receives nearly $1 billion annually in Danish subsidies.
Denmark&#8217;s limited Arctic presence – just 75 troops in its Greenland Command – was highlighted when a stranded cruise ship waited four days for military rescue in 2023. The gap between responsibility and capability drives U.S. strategic concerns about Chinese and Russian Arctic ambitions.
While some Greenlandic officials privately welcome increased U.S. military presence, they resist any suggestion of replacing one colonial relationship with another. &#8220;We don&#8217;t want a new colonial power. But we can&#8217;t look after defence ourselves,&#8221; one official told the Financial Times.
Trump&#8217;s son Donald Jr.&#8217;s <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/global/25/01/42857403/trump-sends-don-jr-on-mission-to-get-the-deal-done-and-make-greenland-part-of-our-nation">arrival in Greenland last week</a> for what he called &#8220;a little bit of fun&#8221; has intensified speculation about future U.S. moves toward the strategic territory as climate change reshapes Arctic politics and economics.
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<li>Maker of the $60,000 foldable home has 3 factory buildings, 600+ houses built, and big plans to solve housing —<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/money/boxabl"> you can become an investor for $0.80 per share today.</a></li>
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Startups

Why Trump Sees Greenland As A $2 Billion Security Deal

The yearlong ban that California&#8217;s insurance authority rushed to impose on cancellations in parts of Los Angeles hardest hit by wildfires was likely the last thing insurance companies wanted in the face of anticipated record-breaking claims.
&#8220;Losing your insurance should be the last thing on someone&#8217;s mind after surviving a devastating fire,&#8221; Insurance Commissioner Ricardo Lara said in a statement. &#8220;This law gives millions of Californians breathing room and hits the pause button on insurance non-renewals while people recover.&#8221;
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<li>This Jeff Bezos-backed startup will allow you to <a href="https://arrivedhomes.go2cloud.org/aff_c?offer_id=15&amp;aff_id=1006&amp;aff_sub=yahoo&amp;aff_sub2=byerscta100">become a landlord in just 10 minutes, with minimum investments as low as $100 for properties like the Byer House from Stranger Things.</a></li>
</ul>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Insurers Must Write New Policies If They Want To Do Business In California</h2>
The insurance commissioner is literally holding insurance companies&#8217; feet to the fire. As Realtor.com reported, the moratorium on cancellations follows the commissioner&#8217;s unveiling of a new rule requiring private insurance firms to start writing new policies in high-risk areas if they wanted to keep doing business in California, but with the concession that they would be allowed to pass the costs on to their customers.
As of Wednesday, Jan. 15, the Los Angeles area wildfires had killed at least 25 people, destroyed more than 12,000 structures and charred more than 60 square miles. The largest by far – the Palisades and Eaton wildfires – continue to burn out of control. The fire has come at the worst possible time for homeowners – just months after private insurers canceled 1,600 policies in <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/entertainment/25/01/42933292/wildfires-destroy-celebrity-homes-in-pacific-palisades-paris-hilton-says-the-heartbreak-is-truly-indescribable">Pacific Palisades</a> over high fire risks. At the same time, major <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/money/best-homeowners-insurance">private insurers</a> like State Farm, Nationwide, Farmers Insurance, Allstate, USAA and The Hartford stopped writing new policies in high-risk areas or limited their coverage.
See Also: CEO of Integris gathered a team of senior investment managers who have $34.22 billion in combined owned and managed assets in the West Coast —<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/money/integris"> here&#8217;s how to invest in their private credit fund that targets 12% annual interest rate.</a>
Faced with the prospect of having their homes uninsured, almost half a million Californians were forced to enroll in the Fair Access to Insurance Requirements (FAIR) Plan, the state-sponsored insurer of last resort. According to Reuters, more than 1,400 homes were covered by the FAIR Plan last year in the Palisades neighborhood alone, up 85% from the previous year.
&#8220;One sees relatively low premiums in high-risk markets in California, but that might be starting to change,&#8221; said Philip Mulder, a University of Wisconsin professor who studies the industry.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Massive Losses</h2>
According to AccuWeather, the total economic loss to Southern California from the wildfires is estimated to be between $135 billion and $150 billion, which will rise the longer the fires burn.
&#8220;These fast-moving, wind-driven infernos have created one of the costliest wildfire disasters in modern U.S. history,&#8221; stated AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter.&nbsp;
Trending: It&#8217;s no wonder Jeff Bezos holds over $70 million in art — <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/money/masterworks-y2">this alternative asset has outpaced the S&amp;P 500 since 1995, delivering an average annual return of 11.4%. Here&#8217;s how everyday investors are getting started.</a>
&#8220;Hurricane-force winds sent flames ripping through neighborhoods filled with multi-million-dollar homes. The devastation left behind is heartbreaking and the economic toll is staggering. To put this into perspective, the total damage and economic loss from this wildfire disaster could reach nearly 4% of the annual GDP of the state of California.&#8221;
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Soaring Insurance Costs</h2>
Property owners have seen insurance costs soar over the last two years in the wake of one natural disaster after another. According to CBS News, the worst hit were <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/real-estate/24/01/36453695/a-49-unit-affordable-housing-community-in-los-angeles-has-taken-17-years-to-build-and-its-still-not">affordable housing</a> providers, where nearly one in three policies experienced rate increases of at least 25% in the most recent coverage renewal period. The LA wildfires are likely to add crippling losses to an industry already gasping for air.
Bloomberg reports that new estimates of the insurance industry&#8217;s total losses are now as high as $40 billion and some estimates are even higher.
Trending: Commercial real estate has historically outperformed the stock market, and<a href="https://equitymultiple.com/benzinga?invite=benzinga&amp;utm_campaign=product-promotion-earn&amp;utm_source=yahooFinance&amp;utm_medium=affiliate&amp;utm_content=stockmarket-yahoo"> this platform allows individuals to invest in commercial real estate with as little as $5,000 offering a 12% target yield with a bonus 1% return boost today!</a>
Dave Jones, a former California Insurance Commissioner, doesn&#8217;t expect this event to push any insurers into insolvency. Jones, now at UC Berkeley&#8217;s Center for Law, Energy and the Environment, told NPR, &#8220;It will be an earnings event for them as they say in the industry, which means they won&#8217;t make profits this year for sure.&#8221; Added Jones: &#8220;There&#8217;s no question that before these wildfires, they … were going to raise rates more. Now, with these wildfires, they&#8217;re going to be able to ask for even higher rate increases.&#8221;
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Insurers Are Hiring Private Firefighters</h2>
The Guardian reported that some insurance companies send out private firefighters to protect insured properties to limit their payouts.
One such company is Wildfire Defense Systems. Founder Dave Torgerson said his company is working to &#8220;break the ignition cycle&#8221; by stopping individual buildings from catching fire. They use fire-blocking gels, flame retardants and other equipment to protect at-risk buildings. &#8220;The biggest component of making a structure survive a wildfire incident is labor.&#8221;
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California Bans Insurance Policy Cancellations In Boost To Property Owners. The Insurance Industry Prepares For Record-Breaking Losses

Chicago is preparing for a significant immigration raid less than 24 hours after Donald Trump takes the oath of office to begin his second term as president.
What Happened: The large-scale deportation raid in Chicago is slated to begin on Tuesday, immediately following Trump&#8217;s Monday inauguration. The action will be the initial phase of Trump&#8217;s pledge to deport millions of foreign nationals.
According to a report <a href="https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/trump-to-begin-large-scale-deportations-tuesday-e1bd89bd?mod=e2tw">by</a> The Wall Street Journal, multiple sources involved in the immigration operation&#8217;s planning have learned that Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) intends to deploy between 100 and 200 officers for this week-long operation.
Chicago Alderman Michael Rodriguez is taking steps to prepare his constituents for the upcoming raids, distributing legal advice on cards. However, the exact start time of the operation remains uncertain.
Tom Homan, Trump&#8217;s border czar Thomas Homan had previously declared his intention to make Chicago the focal point for mass deportations. He reaffirmed his commitment to this plan at a Republican event last month.
Also Read: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/12/42715951/trump-backs-immigration-visas-musk-praises-his-stance-and-says-rising-tide-lifts-all-boats">Trump Backs Immigration Visas, Musk Praises His Stance and Says &#8216;Rising Tide Lifts All Boats&#8217;</a>
"We're going to start right here in Chicago, Illinois," Homan said at a holiday party on Chicago's North Side. "And if the Chicago mayor doesn't want to help, he can step aside. But if he impedes us, if he knowingly harbors or conceals an illegal alien, I will prosecute him."
Since late 2020, approximately 10 million people have migrated to the U.S., accounting for both legal and illegal arrivals and subtracting those who departed. This influx has alleviated labor shortages and contributed to faster economic growth.
Why It Matters: This impending mass deportation raid in Chicago represents a significant step in the implementation of Trump&#8217;s immigration policies. 
The scale of the operation, involving up to 200 officers, underscores the administration&#8217;s commitment to its hardline stance on immigration. The impact of this operation will likely be felt not just by the individuals targeted for deportation, but also by the broader community, as it grapples with the social and economic implications of such a large-scale action. 
The response of local officials such as Rodriguez highlights the tension between federal immigration policies and local community interests.
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Image: Shutterstock

Chicago Braces For Massive Immigration Raid Hours After Donald Trump's Second Inauguration

Benzinga examined the prospects for<a href="http://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas"> many investors&#8217; favorite stocks</a> over the last week — here&#8217;s a look at some of our top stories.
The Dow, S&amp;P 500, and Nasdaq gained 3.7%, 2.9%, and 2.5% this week, respectively, with all three posting their strongest advances in weeks. 
A December inflation report, showing a 2.9% rise <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/01/43003047/stocks-rise-on-core-inflation-slowdown-banks-rally-after-strong-q4-earnings-treasury-yields-plummet">and softer core inflation</a>, fueled optimism for potential Fed rate cuts this year. Financial stocks surged 6% as major banks reported stellar earnings, with Goldman Sachs jumping 11% to record highs. 
Meanwhile, Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) crossed $100,000 amid optimism surrounding crypto-friendly policies expected under the <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/25/01/43068335/wall-street-rallies-as-inflation-fears-recede-banks-smash-earnings-bitcoin-reclaims-100000-this-week-in-the-markets">incoming Trump administration.</a>
Benzinga provides daily reports on the stocks most popular with investors. Here are a few of this past week&#8217;s most bullish and bearish posts that are worth another look.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">The Bulls</h3>
&#8220;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/25/01/43036902/tesla-stock-valuation-analyst-flags-long-term-growth-opportunities-robotaxis-fsd">Tesla Stock &#8216;Valuation Is Full&#8217;: Analyst Flags Long-Term Growth Opportunities With Robotaxis, FSD</a>,&#8221; by <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/author/chris-katje">Chris Katje</a>, discusses a Goldman Sachs analyst&#8217;s insights on Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>), forecasting $115 million in 2027 revenue from robotaxis as Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology advances.
&#8220;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/25/01/42993997/dogecoin-to-hit-new-all-time-high-after-trump-is-sworn-in-influencer-says-pattern-nearly-identical-to-last-inauguration">Dogecoin To Hit New All-Time High After Trump Is Sworn In? Influencer Says Pattern &#8216;Nearly Identical&#8217; To Last Inauguration</a>,&#8221; by <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/author/aniket-verma">Aniket Verma</a>, highlights speculation among influencers that Dogecoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/doge/usd">DOGE</a>) could replicate its post-inauguration rally from 2021, with one suggesting DOGE might double to $0.73 if historical patterns repeat.
&#8220;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/initiation/25/01/43010706/doge-fears-for-defense-contractors-lockheed-martin-northrop-grumman-overblown-analyst-says">DOGE Fears For Defense Contractors Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman &#8216;Overblown,&#8217; Analyst Says</a>,&#8221; by <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/author/erica-kollmann">Erica Kollmann</a>, features an analyst initiating coverage on Lockheed Martin Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/LMT#NYSE">LMT</a>) and Northrop Grumman Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NOC#NYSE">NOC</a>) with Buy ratings and targets of $579 and $544, dismissing concerns tied to Donald Trump's proposed Department of Government Efficiency as exaggerated.
For additional bullish calls of the past week, check out the following:
<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/01/42948649/goldman-sachs-warns-of-90-oil-risk-trump-may-not-ease-sanctions-once-he-takes-office">Oil Could Hit $90, Goldman Sachs Says: &#8216;Trump May Not Ease Sanctions&#8217; On Russia</a>
<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/24/12/42692787/private-prisons-poised-to-prosper-in-second-trump-term">CoreCivic, Geo Group Rally By Double Digits Since Election Day: Why Trump Boosts Private Prison Stocks</a>
<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/25/01/43035566/taiwan-semiconductor-projects-ai-revenue-to-double-in-2025-highlights-advanced-packaging-as-growth-driver-analyst">Taiwan Semiconductor Projects AI Revenue To Double In 2025, Highlights Advanced Packaging As Growth Driver: Analyst</a>
The Bears
&#8220;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/01/42960291/metas-content-moderation-changes-alarm-advertisers-as-zuckerberg-aligns-with-trump-and-musk">Meta&#8217;s Content Moderation Changes Alarm Advertisers as Zuckerberg Aligns with Trump and Musk</a>,&#8221; by <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/author/anusuya-lahiri-0">Anusuya Lahiri</a>, reports on Meta Platforms Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>) adopting a &#8220;free speech&#8221; content moderation style inspired by Elon Musk&#8217;s X, raising advertiser concerns over harmful content.
&#8220;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/short-ideas/25/01/43037214/drone-maker-red-cat-set-to-be-blown-out-of-the-sky-short-seller-claims-management-set-almost-impossible-expectations">Drone Maker Red Cat &#8216;Set To Be Blown Out Of The Sky&#8217;: Short Seller Claims Management Set &#8216;Almost Impossible&#8217; Expectations</a>,&#8221; by&nbsp;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/author/adam-eckert">Adam Eckert</a>, covers Kerrisdale Capital's short position on Red Cat Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/RCAT#NASDAQ">RCAT</a>), arguing the company&#8217;s valuation is inflated by unrealistic expectations surrounding its U.S. Army SRR drone contract, which the firm says bears &#8220;almost no relationship to reality.&#8221;
&#8220;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/01/42986042/apple-sees-market-share-decline-in-2024-as-chinese-smartphone-brands-surge-globally-idc">Apple Sees Market Share Decline in 2024 as Chinese Smartphone Brands Surge Globally: IDC</a>,&#8221; by <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/author/anusuya-lahiri-0">Anusuya Lahiri</a>, highlights Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>) losing global market share to Chinese competitors like Xiaomi Corp. (OTC:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XIACF#OTC">XIACF</a>) (OTC:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XIACY#OTC">XIACY</a>) as smartphone shipments grew 6.4% in 2024, driven by affordable premium offerings and aggressive pricing in emerging markets.
For more bearish takes, be sure to see these posts:
<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/01/42970112/nvidia-order-delays-and-ai-sanctions-threaten-global-sales-offer-growth-opportunity-for-us-tech-giants">US Semiconductor Sanctions Spell Trouble for Nvidia, But May Benefit Big Tech</a>
<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/regulations/25/01/43017875/southwest-airlines-is-sued-by-department-of-transportation-over-chronically-delayed-flights">Southwest Airlines Is Sued By Department Of Transportation Over &#8216;Chronically Delayed&#8217; Flights</a>
<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/01/42938301/michael-saylors-microstrategy-will-struggle-when-bitcoins-volatility-falls-says-arthur-hayesi-would-not-trade-mstr-at-all">Michael Saylor&#8217;s MicroStrategy Will Struggle When Bitcoin&#8217;s Volatility Falls, Says Arthur Hayes — I Would Not Trade MSTR At All</a>
Keep up with all the latest breaking news and trading ideas by following<a href="https://twitter.com/Benzinga"> Benzinga</a><a href="http://twitter.com/Benzinga"> on Twitter</a>.
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예상보다 강한 미국 경제 데이터와 급등하는 유가가 <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/interest-rates">연방준비제도(연준)의 11월 회의에 대한 시장 기대</a>를 재편하고 있다.
당초 50bp(베이시스 포인트)의 공격적인 금리 인하를 예상했던 트레이더들은 이제 25bp의 소폭 인하로 선회하고 있으며, 최근 몇 시간 동안 금리 인하 사이클의 중단 가능성에 대한 기대가 급격히 상승했다.
9월에 50bp 금리 인하가 단행된 후, 금리를 동결하는 것은 연준이 미국 노동 시장의 둔화에 대해 상당히 잘못 판단했을 수 있음을 인정하는 것으로 볼 수 있다.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">예상치 못한 경제 회복</h2>
미국 경제는 경기 둔화 예측을 계속해서 무시하고 있다.
9월에 미국 경제는 비농업 부문에서 무려 254,000개의 일자리가 추가되어 140,000개의 예측과 12개월 평균 200,000개를 훨씬 초과했다. 이 실업률은 예상치 못하게 4.1%로 떨어졌고, 임금 증가율도 모든 예상치를 웃돌며 가속화되었다. 이러한 요소들은 연준이 단기적으로 추가적인 공격적인 금리 인하를 정당화하기 어렵게 만들고 있다.
여기에 중동의 지정학적 긴장이 급격히 고조되면서 상황이 더욱 악화되었다.
이스라엘과 헤즈볼라 간의 갈등은 이란의 미사일 공격과 이스라엘의 보복 위협으로 촉발되어, 단 5일 만에 유가가 11% 이상 급등하게 만들었다. 서부 텍사스산 원유(WTI)는 배럴당 77달러를 넘어섰다.
이러한 에너지 가격의 급등으로 인해 인플레이션 압력이 높아지면서 트레이더들은 금리 동결 옵션을 고려하게 되었다.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">트레이더들은 연준의 금리 동결에 베팅</h2>
경기가 모든 분야에서 활발히 돌아가고 인플레이션 위험이 높아지면서, 트레이더들은 이제 12월에 50bp 금리 인하 가능성을 가격에 반영하지 않고, 11월에 연준이 금리를 동결할지를 주목하고 있다.
시장 내 금리 동결 확률은 CME의 페드워치(FedWatch) 도구에 따르면 금요일의 2%와 이전 주의 0%에서 14%로 급증했다.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">11월 연방준비제도 회의에 대한 시장 내 암시 확률</h2>
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes">
<table style="overflow:auto; height: 90px; display: block;">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td></td>
<td>2024년 10월 7일</td>
<td>1일 전 
(2024년 10월 4일)</td>
<td>1주 전 
(2024년 9월 30일)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>50bp 인하</td>
<td>0%</td>
<td>0%</td>
<td>34.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>25bp 인하</td>
<td>86%</td>
<td>97.4%</td>
<td>65.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>금리 동결</td>
<td>14%</td>
<td>2.6%</td>
<td>0%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">데이터: 2024년 10월 7일 오후 3시(ET) 기준 CME FedWatch</figcaption></figure>
이러한 기대의 변화는 10년 만기 국채 수익률을 4% 이상으로 다시 끌어올렸다. 이는 보통 금리 인하 환경에서는 보기 힘든 일이다. 월요일에 U.S. Treasury 10-Year Note ETF(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UTEN#NYSE">UTEN</a>)는 0.4% 하락하며 4일 연속으로 부정적인 세션을 기록했다.
뱅크 오브 아메리카(Bank of America)의 경제학자인 아딧야 바브(Aditya Bhave)는 &#8220;연준의 9월 50bp 인하 이후 데이터 흐름이 매우 강력했다. 또 다른 50bp 인하는 정당화되지 않는다&#8221;고 말했다. 그는 이제 연준이 더 점진적인 접근 방식을 채택하고 2025년 3월까지 매 회의마다 25bp씩 금리를 인하할 것으로 예상한다고 덧붙였다.
&#8220;현재는 최근 데이터에 기반하여 조건을 정상화하는 데 도움이 될 수 있는 일련의 더 완만한 25bp 인하가 필요하다. 경제가 여전히 좋은 상태일 때 금리를 인하하면 또 다른 인플레이션 위험이 발생할 수 있다&#8221;라고 분석가 마이클 가예드(Michael Gayed), CFA가 말했다.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">베테랑 투자자가 연준이 금리를 동결해야 하는 12가지 이유를 설명</h2>
베테랑 월스트리트 투자자 에드 야데니(Ed Yardeni)는 월요일 포스팅에서 연준이 11월에 금리 인하를 중단해야 하는 12가지 이유를 제시했다:
1. 미국 경제는 9월의 50bp 인하가 필요하지 않았으며, 이는 최신 고용 및 PMI 데이터로 입증되었다.
2. 연준 관계자들은 9월에 50bp 인하한 것을 후회할 수 있으며, 이제 추가 데이터를 평가하기 위해 금리를 동결해야 한다.
3. 9월 인하 이후 국채 수익률 상승은 완화가 필요하지 않았음을 시사하며, 더 강한 성장을 촉진할 수 있다.
4. 추가 금리 인하는 주식 시장의 &#8220;급등(meltup)&#8221;을 촉발할 수 있으며, 이미 1990년대 수준에 가까운 밸류에이션다.
5. 중동의 지정학적 위험 상승은 유가를 높여 1970년대의 스태그플레이션 우려를 불러일으켰다.
6. 허리케인 헬렌의 여파는 재건 작업으로 인해 인플레이션 압력을 자극할 수 있다.
7. 최근 부두 노동자들의 임금 협상은 수입 비용을 증가시키고 임금 인플레이션을 유발할 수 있다.
8. 양당의 대선 후보들이 제안하는 재정 프로그램은 연방 적자를 확대하고 인플레이션을 유발할 수 있다.
9. 중국의 경제 부양책은 전 세계 원자재 가격을 상승시켜 인플레이션 위험을 증가시키고 있다.
10. 추가 금리 인하는 달러 가치를 약화시켜 인플레이션을 악화시킬 수 있다.
11. 근원 인플레이션은 연준의 2% 목표를 여전히 초과하고 있으며, &#8220;슈퍼코어&#8221; 인플레이션은 3% 이상에서 정체되어 있다.
12. 실질 중립 연방기금 금리는 연준이 추정하는 것보다 높을 수 있으며, 이는 명목 중립 금리가 4.0%에 가까울 수 있음을 시사한다.
지금 읽어보세요:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/asia/24/10/41213691/fast-and-furious-rally-pushes-chinese-stocks-to-double-s-p-500-performance-year-to-date">‘빠르고 치열한 반등&#8217;이 중국 주식을 S&amp;P 500의 두 배로 끌어올리다</a></li>
</ul>
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피치 레이팅스(Fitch Ratings)는 목요일 미국 국가신용등급을 &#8216;AA+&#8217;로 재확인하고 안정적인 전망을 제시하며 높은 1인당 국민소득과 <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/fitch-ratings" target="_blank" rel="noopener">미국 달러가</a> 제공하는 재정적 유연성 등의 장점을 언급했다.
이 신용 평가 기관은 또한 국가 부채 증가와 고조되는 정치적 양극화에 대한 우려가 커지고 있음을 지적했다. 피치에 따르면 이로 인해 <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/macro-economic-events" target="_blank" rel="noopener">경제 및 신뢰 충격</a>에 대한 국가의 취약성이 높아진다.
이 피치 보고서는 "정부가 대규모 재정 적자, 부채 부담 증가, 인구 노령화와 관련된 지출 증가를 의미 있게 해결하는 데 실패했다"고 밝혔다.
이러한 이유로 미국의 거버넌스 표준은 비슷한 등급을 받은 국가들의 평균 수준에 미치지 못다.
2024년 8월 현재 피치 레이팅스는 오스트리아, 캐나다, 대만에도 AA+ 등급을 할당했다는 점에 주목할 가치가 있다.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">거버넌스 문제, 재정적 어려움 지속, 피치 분석</h3>
작년 8월 피치는 &#8216;거버넌스 표준의 꾸준한 악화&#8217;를 이유로 미국 국가 신용 등급을 AAA에서 강등했으며 이로 인해 <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/23/08/33523662/fitch-slashes-us-credit-rating-5-top-economists-weigh-in-on-economic-fallout" target="_blank" rel="noopener">일반 정부 부채 부담</a>이 높아지고 증가했다.
그러나 그 경우에, 이 신용 평가 기관은 또한 긴축된 신용 상태, 기업 투자 감소, 소비 둔화로 인해 2023년 4분기와 2024년 1분기 동안 미국 경제가 완만하게 침체될 것이라고 예측했다. 하지만 이는 전적으로 빗나간 예측이었다.
피치는 대선 후보 카멀라 해리스 부통령과 도널드 트럼프 전 대통령의 대조적인 경제 목표, 조세 정책, 지출 우선순위에도 불구하고 현재의 불안정한 재정 상태가 대체로 해결되지 않은 상태로 남아 있을 것으로 예상하고 있다.
"우리는 2017년 세금 감면의 대부분이 트럼프나 해리스 하에서 연장될 것으로 예상한다."
이러한 감면은 GDP의 약 1.2%에 해당하며 재정 상태를 악화시킬 것으로 예상된다.
트럼프가 제안한 무역관세나 해리스의 법인세 인상 계획 등 세수 증대 방안이 논의 중인 가운데, 피치는 세금 감면 및 고용법의 연장이나 자녀 세금 공제 시행을 포함한 다른 정책 조치를 통해 이러한 영향이 무력화될 것이라고 믿고 있다.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">경제 둔화 전망, 부채 전망 악화</h3>
미국 경제 성장은 둔화될 것으로 예상되는데, 피치는 평균 성장률을 2023년 2.5%에서 2024년 2.1%로 하향 조정했다. 이러한 둔화는 부분적으로 정부 지출 감소에 기인한다. 2025~2026년 경제 불균형이 점차 해소되면서 성장률은 평균 1.6%로 예상된다.
피치는 2024년에 적당한 수익 증가와 재량 지출 감소에 힘입어 적자가 GDP의 8.1%로 약간 줄어들 것으로 예상한다. 다만 부채비율 증가와 금리 인상으로 이자부담은 늘어날 것으로 예상된다.
"새 정부에서도 재정 정책이 크게 변하지 않을 것이라는 예상을 감안할 때 2025~2026년 GDP 적자는 7.7%에 달할 것으로 예상된다."
부채 한도 유예는 2024년 말까지 지속될 것으로 예상되며, 그 이후에는 부채 한도가 재설정된다. 지난 몇 년간과 마찬가지로 정부는 중요한 x-date 도달을 지연시키기 위해 특별 조치와 현금 준비금에 의존할 수 있다.
&#8220;우리는 의회가 2024년 9월 30일 마감인 FY2025 세출 법안을 선거 이후까지, 그리고 아마도 2025년 3월까지 연장하기 위한 지속적인 결의안을 통과시킬 것으로 기대한다.&#8221;
피치는 GDP 대비 정부 부채 비율이 2026년 말까지 124.4%로 증가할 것으로 예상하고 있는데, 이는 AA 등급 국가들의 중앙값보다 훨씬 높은 수치이다.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="wp-image-521636" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/29154132/image-306-1024x508.png" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/29154132/image-306-1024x508.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/29154132/image-306-300x149.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/29154132/image-306-768x381.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/29154132/image-306-1536x762.png 1536w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/29154132/image-306.png 1920w" alt="" width="1024" height="508" /></figure>
피치는 &#8220;부채 수준이 증가하고 있음에도 불구하고 연방 정부의 자금 조달 유연성은 글로벌 준비금 비중과 무역, 차입, 글로벌 결제에서 가장 중요한 통화인 미국 달러의 역할로 인해 엄청난 이점을 얻고 있다&#8221;고 밝혔다.
통화 정책과 관련하여 피치는 연준이 금리 인하 주기를 시작할 것으로 예상하고 있으며, 2024년 9월에 25bp(베이시스 포인트) 인하하고 2025년 내내 추가로 125bp 인하할 것으로 예상된다.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">시장 반응</h3>
피치 레이팅스의 보고서 발표 후, 국채 수익률과 미 달러는 전반적으로 변동이 없었다.
Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>)가 추적하는 미국 달러 지수(DXY)는 미국 동부 시간 목요일 오후 3시 30분에 0.3% 상승했다.
국채 수익률은 곡선 전반에 걸쳐 약 3bp 상승했으며, 2분기 경제 성장이 예상보다 강한 가운데 세션 동안 소폭 상승했다. 국채 연계 상장지수펀드(ETF)가 목요일 하락했다.
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>)는 0.33% 하락했으며, US 10 Year Treasury Note ETF(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UTEN#NYSE">UTEN</a>)는 0.19% 하락 마감했다.
뉴욕에서 주식은 오후 거래 중 상승폭이 줄어들었다. SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>)는 0.009% 상승했으며, 기술주 중심의 Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1(NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>)는 목요일 0.15%로 하락 마감했다. QQQ는 시간외 거래에서 0.2% 상승했다.
이미지: Shutterstock
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피치는 미국의 'AA+' 신용등급을 재확인하면서, "부채 부담이 커지고 있다"고 경고

신흥 경제국의 채권 시장은 연방준비제도(연준)가 <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/interest-rates">금리 인하</a>를 향한 정책 전환에 가까워지고 있다는 기대감이 커지면서 최근 세션에서 강한 상승세를 보였다.
약 30개 신흥 시장 국가들의 달러 표시 채권을 추적하는 iShares J.P. Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EMB#NYSE">EMB</a>)는 2022년 5월 마지막 수준으로 상승하여 지난 10개 세션 중 9개 세션에서 상승을 기록했다.
마찬가지로, 신흥 시장의 현지 통화 표시 채권에 투자하는 iShares J.P. Morgan EM Local Currency Bond ETF(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/LEMB#NYSE">LEMB</a>)도 1년 만에 최고치로 올랐다.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="wp-image-504542" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/20154315/image-172-1024x548.png" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/20154315/image-172-1024x548.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/20154315/image-172-300x161.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/20154315/image-172-768x411.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/20154315/image-172-1536x822.png 1536w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/20154315/image-172.png 1920w" alt="" width="1024" height="548" /></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">미국 금리 하락에 눈돌리는 투자자들, 신흥국 채권 랠리: 달러 약세</h3>
골드만삭스의 분석가인 타다스 게드미나스(Tadas Gedminas)에 따르면 현지 통화 국채 시장에서 이러한 뛰어난 성과의 대부분은 올해 대부분 어려움을 겪은 라틴 아메리카와 멕시코, 브라질, 폴란드와 같은 국가에 집중되었다.
게드미나스는 또한 &#8220;미국의 성장 예외주의가 줄어들고 연준의 완화 주기 시작에 대한 신뢰가 높아지면 신흥 시장 정책 입안자들의 제약이 완화되고 이들 경제 전반에 걸쳐 더 광범위한 금리 인하 주기가 지원될 것&#8221;이라고 강조했다.
골드만삭스는 한국, 남아프리카공화국, 인도 중앙은행이 올해 말 이전에 정책금리 완화에 착수할 것으로 예상하고 있다.
트레이더들은 9월 미국의 금리 인하를 완전히 가격에 반영하고 있으며, 시장 내재 확률은 25bp(베이스 포인트) 인하 가능성이 73%이며 11월과 12월에는 추가 인하가 예상된다.
통화 측면에서 미국 달러화는 8월에 특히 아시아 통화 대비 약세를 보였다.
달러 가치는 인도네시아 루피아 대비 월간 누계 5% 하락해 2020년 4월 이후 루피아 환율이 가장 좋은 달을 기록했다.
달러화는 말레이시아 링깃, 태국 바트, 필리핀 페소, 한국 원화에 대해서도 3~4% 정도 평가절하됐다.
라틴 아메리카에서는 달러화 가치가 이번 달 브라질 헤알화 대비 3% 이상 하락해 7개월 연속 강세를 이어갈 것으로 예상된다.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">신흥국 경제로의 투자 자금 유입 개선</h3>
지난주 발표된 국제통화기금(IMF) 보고서는 신흥시장과 개발도상국으로의 순자본 유입이 2022년 최저치에서 약간 회복됐음을 강조했지만, 2023년에는 전반적으로 마이너스를 유지했다.
계속해서 마이너스 순 자본 유입의 큰 부분을 차지했던 중국을 제외하면, 다른 신흥 시장 그룹에서는 플러스 유입이 증가했다.
IMF의 고주파 데이터에 따르면 중국을 제외한 신흥 시장으로의 총 포트폴리오 유입은 2024년 첫 몇 달 동안 긍정적이었다.
이러한 자금 유입은 "미국 금융 상황의 변동, 금융 시장의 낙관론, 2023년 4분기 미국 달러의 제한된 평가절하로 인해 신흥 시장으로의 자본 유입이 다시 활성화되는 데 도움이 됐다"고 이 기금이 적었다.
이제 읽기:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/24/08/40469009/a-bar-of-pure-gold-is-now-worth-1-million-what-can-it-buy-you">순금괴의 가치는 현재 100만 달러입니다: 무엇을 살 수 있나요?</a></li>
</ul>
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