Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF에 대한 매도 수량은 투자자에게 Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF의 주식 하락에 베팅하는 정도를 알려줍니다. 매도 수량 데이터는 2주마다 업데이트됩니다.

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저명한 경제학자 모하메드 엘 에리언((Mohamed El-Erian)에 따르면, 향후 금리 정책에 대한 연준 위원들의 견해에 상당한 차이가 있다는 것은 2025년까지 시장에 영향을 미칠 수 있는 더 깊은 전략적 도전 과제를 시사한다.

모하메드 엘 에리언, 연준 내부의 엇갈린 견해로 &#34;더 큰 문제&#34;에 직면

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수요일(18일) 연준은 많은 사람들이 예상했던 0.25%p 금리인하를 단행하여 연방기금 금리를 4.25%~4.5% 범위로 낮추면서 한 해를 마감했다. 이는 2023년 1월 이후 가장 낮은 수준이며, 9월의 0.50%p 인하와 11월의 0.25%p 인하에 이어 세 번째 연속으로 차입 비용을 낮춘 것이었다.

12월 연준 FOMC: 예상대로 0.25%p 금리인하 및 2025년 두 차례 인하 전망, 시장 반응은?

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연방준비제도(연준) 의장 제롬 파월은 12월 연준 회의 후 수요일 기자 회견에서 매파적인 입장을 채택하여 뉴욕 거래 세션이 마감되면서 시장의 급락을 촉발시켰다.

파월이 시장 급락 유발: VIX가 58% 급등, 주가 하락, 달러 2년 만에 최고치, 비트코인 급락

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Markets saw a brief reprieve Friday as the Federal Reserve&#8217;s preferred inflation gauge came in below expectations, tempering concerns of mounting volatility after this <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/24/12/42615908/feds-preferred-inflation-gauge-falls-more-than-expected-markets-breathe-sigh-of-relief">week's hawkish policy pivot.</a>
The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index rose 2.4% year-over-year in November, missing the 2.5% forecast. On a monthly basis, the gauge slowed to 0.1%, down from 0.2% in October and below projections for steady growth.
Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, remained at 2.8% annually, slightly under the 2.9% estimate. The monthly core reading also decelerated to 0.1% from 0.3%, undershooting the 0.2% forecast.
Even with Friday's softer inflation print, traders seemed hesitant to enter a buy-everything mode after the sharp volatility seen earlier this week. 
The slightly tempered reaction suggests a degree of caution remains entrenched among investors as they assess the Fed's hawkish tone.
New York Fed President John Williams, interviewed by CNBC, reiterated that &#8220;monetary policy continues to be restrictive.&#8221; 
Williams described the recent inflation data as &#8220;encouraging news,&#8221; highlighting further disinflation progress. Yet, he indicated that &#8220;we&#8217;re still not to our 2% goal&#8221; and reaffirmed the Fed's commitment to achieving that target.
&#8220;I think the economy is a good place and most importantly for me, monetary policy is well positioned,&#8221; he added. 
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Stock Market Adds Some Gains, Yet &#8220;Don&#8217;t Fight The Fed&#8221; Remains The Mantra</h1>
U.S. equity markets saw modest gains following November&#8217;s softer-than-expected inflation data, as investor caution lingered after the Federal Reserve's hawkish policy shift earlier this week.
<ul>
<li>S&amp;P 500: The broader market index — as tracked by the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) — edged up from 5,800 to 5,840 by 9:50 a.m. in New York, down by 0.4% for the day.</li>
<li>Dow Jones: The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DIA#NYSE">DIA</a>) gained 0.4% after the release.</li>
<li>Nasdaq 100: Tech stocks fared better, with the Nasdaq QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>) adding 0.6% and recovering from steeper pre-market declines.</li>
<li>Real estate was the strongest-performing sector, with the Vanguard Real Estate ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VNQ#NYSE">VNQ</a>) rising by 1.1%. </li>
<li>Russell 2000: Small-cap stocks showed the largest rebound, with the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IWM#NYSE">IWM</a>) up by 0.1%. </li>
<li>The SPDR S&amp;P Regional Banking ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/KRE#NYSE">KRE</a>) witnessed a 0.8% rally. </li>
</ul>
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Treasury Yields Ease, Dollar Falls And Gold Rebounds</h1>
Bond markets saw some relief as Treasury yields fell following several days of sharp increases. 
The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond dropped five basis points to 4.70%, lifting the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) by 0.8%. This marks a partial recovery after the ETF plunged more than 3% over the previous two sessions.
Yields on shorter-dated two-year Treasury notes fell by seven basis points.
The U.S. dollar index — as tracked by the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>) — weakened by 0.3%.
Gold prices rose, as the precious metal benefited from lower Treasury yields and the declining dollar. The SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>) increased by 0.7%.
In the cryptocurrency market, the iShares Bitcoin Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IBIT#NYSE">IBIT</a>) trimmed premarket losses to 0.9%, as the largest cryptocurrency surged back above $95,000 levels. 
Read Next:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/12/42606037/etf-market-hits-records-in-2024-inflows-reach-16-trillion-7-funds-top-ranking">ETF Market Sets Records In 2024 As Inflows Reach $1.6 Trillion: 7 Funds Leading Charge</a></li>
</ul>
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Market Volatility Halts On Soft Inflation Data, Yet Traders Remain Wary Of Fighting The Fed: 10 ETFs Moving Friday

The Federal Reserve&#8217;s key inflation measure came in below expectations for November, delivering welcome relief Friday to markets after the central bank warned earlier this week of mounting price pressures heading <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/24/12/42598354/wall-street-pins-hopes-on-fridays-crucial-fed-inflation-report-yet-a-miracle-is-needed-to-shift-the-narrative">into the new year.</a>
The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index grew by 2.4% in November 2024 on a year-over-year basis, up from 2.3% in October, according to government data. The figure missed economist forecasts of 2.5%, yet it marked the second consecutive monthly increase in this key inflation measure.
On a monthly basis, the PCE index advanced 0.1%, decelerating from October's 0.2%. 
Excluding volatile components like food and energy, core PCE held steady at 2.8% year-over-year, below expectations of 2.9%. On a monthly basis, core PCE growth slowed to 0.1%, down from the prior 0.3% and below expectations of 0.2%.
In tandem with the inflation data, the report also showed that personal income rose 0.3% month-over-month in November, slowing from October's 0.5% increase and missing expectations of 0.4%. Personal spending grew by 0.4%, slightly below forecasts but in line with October's increase, signaling resilient consumer activity heading into the holiday season.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Another Reality Check For Markets</h3>
The unexpectedly softer November PCE reading could provide relief after days of heightened market volatility triggered by this week&#8217;s Federal Reserve meeting.
On Wednesday, the Fed signaled a slower pace of rate cuts and raised its inflation projections for 2025 and beyond, reinforcing its hawkish stance.
Policymakers now forecast headline PCE inflation to reach 2.5% next year, up from the September projection of 2.1%, and 2.1% in 2026, compared to the previous 2% estimate. Similarly, core PCE inflation is now expected to hit 2.5% in 2025, up from 2.2%, and 2.1% in 2026, revised from 2%.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell's remarks further dashed market hopes when he announced a "new phase" in monetary policy, signaling caution against easing further as interest rates approach the neutral level.
Prior to Friday's data release, money markets had priced in 65 basis points of cumulative rate cuts for next year. 
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Dollar Falls, Equity Futures Trim Losses</h3>
<ul>
<li>The U.S. dollar index (DXY) – as tracked by the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>) – tumbled 0.3%. </li>
<li>Futures on major U.S. indices trimmed premarket losses, with contracts on the S&amp;P 500 down by 0.7% at 8:35 a.m. in New York. On Thursday the S&amp;P 500 – as tracked by the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) – closed 0.1% lower, bringing its cumulative decline since the Fed&#8217;s meeting to over 3%.</li>
<li>Gold surged by 0.6% to $2,610 per ounce. </li>
<li>Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) slightly rebounded after the news to above $95,000 levels, cutting daily losses to 2%. Prior to this week&#8217;s Fed meeting, the largest cryptocurrency had reached an all-time high of $108,364. </li>
</ul>
Read Next:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/24/12/42611748/us-stocks-to-open-lower-as-traders-brace-for-triple-witching-hour-analyst-says-end-of-the-year-recovery-would-not-surprise-anyone">US Stocks To Open Lower As Traders Brace For &#8216;Triple Witching&#8217; Hour: Analyst Says End Of The Year Recovery &#8216;Would Not Surprise Anyone&#8217;</a></li>
</ul>
Photo via Shutterstock.

Fed's Preferred Inflation Gauge Falls More Than Expected: Markets Breathe Sigh Of Relief

On Thursday, December 19, U.S. markets closed mixed after initial gains faded. Stocks mainly remained flat as the Fed forecasted fewer 2025 rate cuts and higher inflation. Jobless claims fell, and Q3 GDP was revised to 3.1%, supporting the Fed&#8217;s view. The Dow ended its 10-session losing streak.
The U.S. economy grew 3.1% in Q3, revised from 2.8% while existing home sales rose 4.8% in November to 4.15 million. Initial jobless claims fell by 22,000 to 220,000 in early December, below estimates of 230,000.
Most S&amp;P 500 sectors ended lower, led by losses in materials, real estate, and energy. In contrast, utilities and financials outperformed, closing the session higher.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.04% and closed at 42,342.24, the S&amp;P 500 closed lower by 0.09% at 5,867.08, and the Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.10% to finish at 19,372.77.
Asia Markets Today
<ul>
<li>On Friday, Japan&#8217;s Nikkei 225 declined 0.22% and ended the session at 38,723.50, led by losses in the Communication, Steel, and Transportation Equipment sectors shares.</li>
<li>Australia&#8217;s S&amp;P/ASX 200 fell 1.24% and ended the day at 8,067.00, led by losses in the Consumer Discretionary, Financials and Gold sectors.</li>
<li>India&#8217;s Nifty 50 slid 1.35% to 23,627.45, and the Nifty 500 was down 1.82%, closing at 22,337.55. Losses in the Real Estate, Power, and Capital Goods sectors led to the declines.</li>
<li>China&#8217;s Shanghai Composite fell 0.06% to close at 3,368.07, and the Shenzhen CSI 300 declined 0.45%, finishing the day at 3,927.74.</li>
<li>Hong Kong&#8217;s Hang Seng was down 0.16% and closed the session at 19,720.70.</li>
</ul>
Eurozone at 05:30 AM ET
<ul>
<li>The European STOXX 50 index was down 1.35%.</li>
<li>Germany&#8217;s DAX slid 1.42%.</li>
<li>France&#8217;s CAC fell 1.30%.</li>
<li>U.K.&#8217;s FTSE 100 index traded lower by 1.09%.</li>
<li>European shares headed for their worst week in three months as Trump&#8217;s tariff threats on the EU rattled investors already concerned about U.S. rates. The STOXX 600 fell 1.1%, with major indices and sectors declining sharply, including banks and miners.</li>
</ul>
Commodities at 05:30 AM ET
<ul>
<li>Crude Oil WTI was trading lower by 2.69% at $68.67/bbl, and Brent was down 0.99% at $72.16/bbl.</li>
<li>Oil prices declined this week due to concerns about slowing demand growth in the coming years, particularly from China. The market was further pressured by a stronger dollar and ongoing revisions to demand forecasts by OPEC and its allies.</li>
<li>Natural Gas rose 1.95% to $3.654.</li>
<li>Gold was trading higher by 0.49% at $2,620.71, Silver was down 0.44% to $29.277 and rose 0.02% to $4.0780.</li>
</ul>
U.S. Futures at 05:30 AM ET
Dow futures were down 0.58%, S&amp;P 500 futures fell 0.82% and Nasdaq 100 futures declined 1.18%.
Forex at 05:30 AM ET
<ul>
<li>The U.S. dollar index was down 0.24% to 108.15, the USD/JPY fell 0.44% to 156.73, and the USD/AUD rose 0.12% to 1.6050.</li>
<li>The dollar neared a two-year high, set for its third weekly gain amid expectations of prolonged high U.S. rates. Global currencies weakened, with the yen and euro under pressure.</li>
</ul>
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US Dollar Hits New Higher While Asia And Europe Markets Slide, Oil Drops On China Demand Fears - Global Markets Today While US Slept

The U.S. economy expanded at an annualized real growth rate of 3.1% in the third quarter of 2024, exceeding the prior estimate of 2.8%, according to the official final <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/econ-s">reading released on Thursday. </a>
This marks the fastest pace of economic expansion since the fourth quarter of 2023 and signals a stronger-than-expected rebound in activity.
The upward revision was driven primarily by robust household spending and a larger increase in exports, although these gains were partially offset by a downward revision in private inventory investment. 
Compared to the second quarter, the acceleration in GDP was attributed to stronger consumer spending, exports, and federal government expenditures.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Consumer Spending Remains the Growth Engine</h3>
Real consumer spending, a key driver of the economy, increased at an annualized rate of 3.7% in third quarter, up from the 3.5% growth reported in the previous estimate. This marked a notable acceleration from the 2.8% rise in the second quarter and the fastest pace of private consumption growth since the first quarter of 2023.
Household spending accounted for a significant share of the GDP boost, reflecting continued resilience despite high borrowing costs and lingering inflationary pressures.
Corporate profits contracted by 0.4% during the third quarter, a revision from the flat growth reported earlier and a sharp reversal from the 3.5% increase seen in the second quarter. 
Inflation pressures, as measured by the GDP price index, rose 1.9%, consistent with earlier estimates but down from 2.5% in the second quarter. 
The Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, a preferred measure of inflation for the Federal Reserve, increased at a 2.2% annualized rate, slightly above the 2.1% initially estimated but easing from 2.8% in the second quarter. 
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Labor Market Shows Continued Strength</h3>
In a separate report on Thursday, labor market data revealed a decline in unemployment claims, reinforcing the narrative of a strong labor market.
Initial jobless claims fell to 220,000 for the week ending Dec. 14, down from 242,000 the previous week and below expectations of 230,000. Continuing claims also edged lower, dropping from a revised 1.879 million to 1.874 million, defying projections of an increase to 1.89 million.
These figures indicate that the brief spike in claims observed in early December has not persisted, pointing to robust momentum in employment as 2024 draws to a close.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Market reactions</h3>
Risk sentiment rebounded during the premarket trading on Thursday, following the sharp selloff witnessed a day earlier amid a more hawkish than expected Federal Reserve meeting. 
Futures on major U.S. indices were in the green, with contracts on the S&amp;P 500 index rising by 0.8%. Similar gains were witnessed by the Nasdaq 100 and the Dow. On Wednesday the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) closed 3% lower, marking its worst session since September 2022.
The U.S. dollar index – Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>) – remained broadly steady for the day.
Meanwhile, Treasury yields continued their relentless climb, with yields on the 10-year benchmark surpassing 4.53%, hitting the highest levels since early May 2024. 
Read Next: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/24/12/42571835/trumps-rejection-of-bipartisan-deal-fuels-government-shutdown-fears-how-markets-historically-react-to-political-turmoil">Trump&#8217;s Rejection Of Bipartisan Deal Fuels Government Shutdown Fears: How Markets Historically React To Political Turmoil</a></li>
</ul>
Photo: Shutterstock

US GDP Revised To 3.1%, Jobless Claims Dip More Than Expected, Treasury Yields Hit 7-Month High

On Wednesday, December 18th, U.S. markets closed sharply lower, with the Dow dropping over 1,100 points—its steepest decline since August and longest losing streak since 1974. The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points as expected but signaled fewer cuts in 2025. Markets reacted sharply to the less dovish tone despite assurances of economic strength and progress on inflation.
Fed Chair Powell adopted a hawkish tone as the Fed cut rates by 0.25% but reduced 2025 rate cut projections to two, down from four in September and below market expectations.
The U.S. current account deficit widened to $310.9 billion in Q3, exceeding the estimated $284 billion. Housing starts fell 1.8% in November to an annualized 1.289 million units from 1.312 million in October.
S&amp;P 500 ended in the red, with consumer discretionary, real estate, and communication services stocks suffering the largest declines.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 2.58% and closed at 42,326.87, the S&amp;P 500 closed lower by 2.95% at 5,872.16, and the Nasdaq Composite slipped 3.56% to finish at 19,392.69.
Asia Markets Today
<ul>
<li>On Thursday, Japan&#8217;s Nikkei 225 declined 0.80% and ended the session at 38,808.50, led by losses in the Communication, Steel, and Transportation Equipment sectors.</li>
<li>Australia&#8217;s S&amp;P/ASX 200 fell 1.70% and ended the day at 8,168.20, led by losses in the Gold, IT, and Materials sectors.</li>
<li>India&#8217;s Nifty 50 slid 0.98% to 23,961.95, and Nifty 500 was down 0.77%, closing at 22,757.65, led by losses in the Banking, Consumer Durables, and Capital Goods sectors.</li>
<li>China&#8217;s Shanghai Composite fell 0.36% to close at 3,370.03, while the Shenzhen CSI 300 gained 0.09%, finishing the day at 3,945.46.</li>
<li>Hong Kong&#8217;s Hang Seng was down 0.56% and closed the session at 19,752.51.</li>
</ul>
Eurozone at 05:30 AM ET
<ul>
<li>The European STOXX 50 index was down 1.60%.</li>
<li>Germany&#8217;s DAX slid 1.12%.</li>
<li>France&#8217;s CAC fell 1.49%.</li>
<li>U.K.&#8217;s FTSE 100 index traded lower by 1.27%.</li>
<li>European stocks fell as the Fed signaled slower rate cuts in 2025. Rate-sensitive tech stocks led losses, while bond yields spiked and commodities declined.</li>
</ul>
Commodities at 05:30 AM ET
<ul>
<li>Crude Oil WTI was trading lower by 0.71% at $70.08/bbl, and Brent was up 0.07% at $73.44/bbl.</li>
<li>Natural Gas rose 2/16% to $3.447.</li>
<li>Gold was trading lower by 0.78% at $2,632.79, Silver was down 2.23% to $30.027, and Copper fell 1.62% to $4.0903.</li>
</ul>
U.S. Futures at 05:30 AM ET
Dow futures were up 0.40%, S&amp;P 500 futures rose 0.48% and Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.47%.
Forex at 05:30 AM ET
<ul>
<li>The U.S. dollar index was down 0.13% to 107.89, the USD/JPY rose 1.35% to 156.89, and the USD/AUD slid 0.42% to 1.6012.</li>
<li>The U.S. dollar surged to a two-year high after the Fed signaled fewer rate cuts in 2025, pressuring global currencies. However, it slipped Thursday amid thin holiday trading, with the euro and Canadian dollar, and won fluctuating sharply.</li>
</ul>
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Global Markets Slide On Fed's Hawkish Rate Policy; U.S. Dollar Eases Slightly After Hitting Two-Year High - Global Markets Today While US Slept

A significant disparity in Federal Reserve officials&#8217; views on future interest rate policy points to deeper strategic challenges that could impact markets through 2025, according to prominent economist Mohamed El-Erian.
What Happened: El-Erian, Chief Economic Adviser at Allianz, highlighted the notable divergence in Fed officials&#8217; rate projections shown in the central bank&#8217;s latest &#8220;dot plot&#8221; released after its December meeting.
&#8220;This is part of a bigger problem &#8212; namely, the consistent absence of a strategic anchoring for policy formulation,&#8221; El-Erian wrote on X, formerly Twitter.
<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"> 
<div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">As shown in the Federal Reserve&#39;s latest &quot;dot plot&quot; (below), there is a notable dispersion in views among Fed officials regarding how the policy rate will evolve from here. This is part of a bigger problem &#8212; namely, the consistent absence of a strategic anchoring for policy… <a href="https://t.co/ojcoXyUrAe">pic.twitter.com/ojcoXyUrAe</a>
&mdash; Mohamed A. El-Erian (@elerianm) <a href="https://twitter.com/elerianm/status/1869504011931472152?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 18, 2024</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></div>
</figure>
The Fed&#8217;s latest projections show officials expect the federal funds rate to decline to around 3.5% by the end of 2025, down from the current 4.25%-4.5% range. However, individual forecasts among Federal Open Market Committee members vary significantly, reflecting uncertainty about the pace of rate cuts.
Why It Matters: This divergence comes as Fed Chair Jerome Powell signals a more cautious approach to monetary policy. During Wednesday&#8217;s press conference, Powell emphasized entering a &#8220;new phase&#8221; with slower, more <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/24/12/42563299/feds-powell-shocks-markets-its-a-new-phase-were-significantly-closer-to-neutral">deliberate rate adjustments</a> ahead.
Market reactions underscored investors&#8217; concerns about the Fed&#8217;s strategic direction. The S&amp;P 500 index — as tracked by the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) tumbled 2.6%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq dropped 3.5%. The U.S. dollar index, tracked by the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>) surged 1.2% to levels not seen since November 2022.
The dispersion in Fed views is particularly significant given persistent inflation challenges. Despite three rate cuts totaling 100 basis points in 2024, core PCE inflation remains <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/24/12/42563299/feds-powell-shocks-markets-its-a-new-phase-were-significantly-closer-to-neutral">above the Fed&#8217;s 2% target</a>, with officials now projecting 2.5% inflation through 2025.
El-Erian warned in his <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-12-16/the-fed-faces-an-important-choice-after-this-rate-cut">recent</a> Bloomberg Opinion column that this policy uncertainty could have meaningful implications during the first half of 2025, potentially affecting both U.S. economic performance and market stability.
Image via Federal Reserve
Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.

Mohamed El-Erian Warns Fed Faces 'Bigger Problem' As Diverging Views On Rate Policy Highlight Lack Of 'Strategic Anchoring'

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell adopted a hawkish stance during his Wednesday press conference after the December Fed meeting, sparking a market bloodbath as the New York session <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/24/12/42563299/feds-powell-shocks-markets-its-a-new-phase-were-significantly-closer-to-neutral">headed to the close.</a>
Although the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 0.25% to a range of 4.25%-4.5%, as widely anticipated, the updated economic projections suggest just two potential rate cuts in 2025 — down from four projected in September and fewer than the three anticipated by markets before the meeting.
Powell described the shift as &#8220;a new phase&#8221; for monetary policy, emphasizing that after 100 basis points of rate cuts in 2024, rates are now significantly closer to a neutral stance. 
Stocks tumbled across the board, the U.S. dollar soared to two-year highs and Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) cratered over 5%, as investors digested the reality of a shift in the monetary policy stance by the Federal Reserve.
The CBOE Volatility Index, known as the VIX and Wall Street&#8217;s fear gauge, skyrocketed 58% to 25, reflecting a spike in investor uncertainty and heightened anxiety over the future of interest rates.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="557" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/18161803/image-161-1024x557.png" alt="" class="wp-image-698569" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/18161803/image-161-1024x557.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/18161803/image-161-300x163.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/18161803/image-161-768x418.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/18161803/image-161-1536x836.png 1536w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/18161803/image-161.png 1920w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Wall Street Wipeout: Major Indices Slammed</h3>
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, as tracked by the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DIA#NYSE">DIA</a>), dropped 1,123 points, falling 2.6% to close at 42,326, marking its worst one-day drop since September 2022. Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>) recorded the worst performance among blue-chip stocks, down 4.6%.
The S&amp;P 500 index — tracked by the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) — fell 178 points, down 2.9% to 5,872, also marking its worst day since September 2022. Paycom Software Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PAYC#NYSE">PAYC</a>) was the major laggard within the S&amp;P 500, down 10%.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100, tracked by the Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>), experienced an even sharper drop of 3.6%, closing at 21,209 as interest rate-sensitive technology stocks took a beating. Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>) tumbled 8.1%, marking the worst performance within the Nasdaq 100.
Every Magnificent Seven company ended the day in the red, collectively erasing more than $600 billion in market value on Wednesday.
Small caps in the Russell 2000 posted the steepest losses, plummeting 4.7% to 2,225. With Wednesday&#8217;s move, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IWM#NASDAQ">IWM</a>) has fully erased the post-election rally.
All major U.S. equity sectors finished in the red. 
Consumer Discretionary stocks suffered the most, plunging 4.5%, followed by Real Estate, which dropped 4% as rising rates weigh heavily on growth-oriented and interest-rate-sensitive industries.
Technology, the largest sector by market capitalization, fell 3.2%, with chipmakers and software companies bearing the brunt of the selloff. 
Communications and Materials both declined 2.9%, while Financials dropped 3%, reflecting pressure across cyclical areas of the market.
Even traditionally defensive sectors failed to escape the selloff. Utilities and Consumer Staples fell 2.4% and 1.5%, respectively.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Dollar Surges To 2-Year Highs, Hammers Gold And Bitcoin</h3>
The U.S. dollar emerged as the day's clear winner, with the dollar index (DXY), followed by the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>), climbing 1.2% to reach its highest level since November 2022.
As the greenback rallied, gold failed to provide a safe haven, falling 2.1% to $2,580 per ounce, while silver dropped 3.5%.
Risk-off sentiment extended into alternative assets. Bitcoin plunged 5.5%, trading just above $101,500.
During the press conference, Powell was asked whether the U.S. government should consider building a strategic reserve of Bitcoin. Powell quickly dismissed the idea, making it clear that such a move is not on the Fed&#8217;s radar.
"We're not allowed to own Bitcoin," Powell said, emphasizing the legal and structural limitations of the Federal Reserve. "The Federal Reserve Act dictates what we can own, and we're not seeking any changes to that law."
Read Next: 
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/econ-s/24/12/42561549/fed-slashes-interest-rates-by-0-25-as-predicted-december-dot-plot-flags-only-2-potential-cuts-in-2025">Fed Slashes Interest Rates By 0.25% As Predicted: December Dot Plot Flags Only 2 Potential Cuts In 2025</a></li>
</ul>
Illustration generated with AI via Dall-E.

Powell Triggers Market Carnage: VIX Spikes 58%, Stocks Plummet, Dollar Hits 2-Year Highs, Bitcoin Nosedives

In a year marked by three consecutive rate cuts totaling 100 basis points, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the Fed is shifting gears to a more cautious stance heading into 2025 as interest rates move tantalizingly close to a neutral <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/econ-s/24/12/42561549/fed-slashes-interest-rates-by-0-25-as-predicted-december-dot-plot-flags-only-2-potential-cuts-in-2025">environment for the economy.</a>
Following the latest 25-basis-point reduction announced Wednesday, the federal funds rate now sits at 4.25%-4.5%, the lowest since January 2023.
&#8220;We&#8217;re significantly closer to neutral,&#8221; Powell said during the post-meeting press conference. &#8220;From this point forward, it's appropriate to move cautiously and look for further progress on inflation,&#8221; he added. 
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Powell Confirms Slower Rate Cuts On The Horizon</h3>
&#8220;I think from here it&#8217;s a new phase and we&#8217;re going to be cautious about further cuts," the Fed chair said.
The Fed&#8217;s December dot plot projects only two additional 25-basis-point cuts in 2025, compared to the four anticipated in September. The updated projections peg the federal funds rate at 3.9% by the end of next year and 3.4% by the close of 2026.
&#8220;With today&#8217;s action, we have lowered our policy rate by a full percentage point from its peak, and our policy stance is now significantly less restrictive,&#8221; Powell said. 
This shift toward caution was reflected in the FOMC's statement, which introduced new language about the &#8220;extent and timing&#8221; of future adjustments. 
Powell indicated that &#8220;extent&#8221; refers to how much room the Fed has left to cut rates without overstimulating the economy, while &#8220;timing&#8221; suggests a slower pace of change going forward.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Inflation Job Not Over, Labor Market Gradually Softer</h3>
Despite this year's progress, inflation remains a thorn in the Fed's side. 
Headline PCE inflation is now expected to reach 2.5% in 2025, up from the September estimate of 2.1%. Core PCE inflation is also forecast to hit 2.5%, up from 2.2% previously. 
Powell highlighted the challenges of achieving the Fed's 2% target: "While we've made a great deal of progress, it has been slower than we had hoped."
Despite the challenges, Powell struck a confident tone about the Fed's ability to bring inflation sustainably back to its 2% target. 
"We're not going to settle for anything less than 2%," Powell said. "It might take another year or two, but we are on the path."
Powell described conditions as &#8220;solid,&#8221; with the unemployment rate at 4.2%, the same as it was in July.
While job creation has slowed, Powell dismissed concerns of significant downside risks. "The labor market is gradually cooling in an orderly way," he said.
The hiring rate remains low, signaling reduced demand for workers, but layoffs are not increasing, Powell said. "This is a good labor market," he added. &#8220;Wages are growing at a healthy, sustainable pace, and we aim to keep it that way.&#8221;
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Trump And Tariffs Risks</h3>
Powell also addressed questions on fiscal policy risks under the incoming Trump administration and inflationary effects of tariffs.
When asked whether policymakers factored in risks tied to the potential policy shifts under a new Trump administration, Powell struck a measured tone, stating the Fed is monitoring potential fiscal developments but refraining from speculation until specific policies are announced. 
"We're in a good place, but fiscal changes can influence inflation and economic growth," he said.
&#8220;We're in the phase of monitoring potential outcomes, not making policy assumptions.&#8221;
On tariffs, Powell said that while one-time tariff-driven price increases don't always translate into persistent inflation, the Fed will take a &#8220;careful and measured approach&#8221; in evaluating the effects if new tariffs are enacted. 
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Market Plummets After Powell&#8217;s Remarks</h3>
Following Powell&#8217;s remarks, Fed futures imply just 37 basis points of cuts in 2025, down from 49 basis points immediately after the Fed statement. 
The S&amp;P 500 index — as tracked by the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) — extended its session losses during Powell&#8217;s press conference, tumbling by 2.6%, eyeing its worst session since September 2022.
The Nasdaq 100 tumbled by 3.5%, the Dow fell 2.3% and small cap stocks in the Russell 2000 tanked over 4%. 
The U.S. dollar index, trackd by the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>), rocketed by 1.2%, reaching highs last seen in November 2022.
Gold plummeted over 2% and silver fell by 3.5%.
Bitcoin nosedived by 5.5%, hovering around $100,000.
<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio"> 
<div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<iframe loading="lazy" title="&#x1f534;WATCH LIVE: US Fed Rate Cut &#x7C; FOMC Meeting &#x7C; Jerome Powell Speech LIVE &#x7C; December 18th, 2024" width="500" height="281" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/WQdK2IixF5c?feature=oembed" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" allowfullscreen></iframe>
</div>
</figure>
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/24/12/42558766/mortgage-applications-dip-as-rates-climb-it-is-still-cheaper-to-rent-than-purchase-for-82-out-of-97-major-cities">Mortgage Applications Dip As Rates Climb: &#8216;It Is Still Cheaper To Rent Than Purchase For 82 Out Of 97 Major Cities&#8217;</a></li>
</ul>
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks at Dec. 18, 2024 press conference following interest rate cut. Photo courtesy of the Federal Reserve.

Fed's Powell Shocks Markets After Interest Rate Cut: 'It's A New Phase'

The Federal Reserve closed out the year with a widely anticipated 25 basis-point interest rate cut Wednesday, lowering the federal funds rate to a<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/24/12/42556652/20-etfs-primed-for-unusually-big-swings-on-fed-meeting-days"> range of 4.25%-4.5%. </a>
This marks the lowest level since January 2023 and is the third consecutive reduction in borrowing costs, following a 50-basis-point cut in September and a 25 basis-point move in November.
The decision to lower interest rates was not unanimous, as Cleveland Fed President Beth M. Hammack voted to maintain the target range unchanged at 4.5%-4.75%.
The Fed's statement showed a meaningful language change, with the addition of the words &#8220;extent&#8221; and &#8220;timing&#8221; in reference to future policy adjustments. This shift signals a more cautious approach to further rate cuts in 2025.
&#8220;In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments, to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks,&#8221; the December Federal Open Market Committee statement said. 
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Economic Projections Signal Fewer Rate Cuts, Higher Inflation</h3>
The Fed&#8217;s December dot plot, which illustrates each policymaker&#8217;s projected path for interest rates, indicates a median expectation for the federal funds rate to decrease to a midpoint of 3.9% by the end of 2025.
This projection suggests the potential of only two additional 0.25% rate cuts during next year, a meaningful revision from the full percentage point of cuts expected in September.
For 2026, the Fed projects the fed funds rate to fall to a midpoint of 3.4%, up from 2.9% in September.
The Fed materially raised its inflation expectations for 2025, projecting headline Personal Consumption Expenditure inflation at 2.5% compared to 2.1% in September. Core PCE inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is now forecast to reach 2.5% in 2025, up from the prior estimate of 2.2%.
The Fed reaffirmed that economic activity remains &#8220;solid&#8221; and said that, despite some easing in labor market conditions, the unemployment rate continues to be low.
Economic growth for 2025 was upwardly revised by 0.1 percentage points from September. 
Leading into the December Fed meeting, money markets priced in an 80% probability of a rate pause in January, followed by a 60% likelihood of a rate cut in March.
Overall, CME FedWatch data reflected a 70% probability of at least three rate cuts by the end of 2025.
In contrast, the CFTC-regulated betting platform Kalshi showed a more aggressive outlook, with a 98% chance of four rate reductions next year.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Fed&#8217;s December Summary of Economic Projections</h3>
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Variable</th>
<th>2024</th>
<th>2025</th>
<th>2026</th>
<th>2027</th>
<th>Longer Run</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Change in real GDP</td>
<td>2.4</td>
<td>2.1</td>
<td>2.0</td>
<td>1.9</td>
<td>1.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Sept. projection </td>
<td>2.0 </td>
<td>2.0 </td>
<td>2.0 </td>
<td>2.0 </td>
<td>1.8 </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Unemployment rate</td>
<td>4.2</td>
<td>4.3</td>
<td>4.3</td>
<td>4.3</td>
<td>4.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Sept. projection</td>
<td>4.4</td>
<td>4.4</td>
<td>4.3</td>
<td>4.2</td>
<td>4.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>PCE inflation </td>
<td>2.4</td>
<td>2.5 </td>
<td>2.1</td>
<td>2.0 </td>
<td>2.0 </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Sept. projection</td>
<td>2.3</td>
<td>2.1</td>
<td>2.0</td>
<td>2.0</td>
<td>2.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Core PCE inflation </td>
<td>2.8 </td>
<td>2.5</td>
<td>2.1</td>
<td>2.0 </td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Sept. projection</td>
<td>2.6</td>
<td>2.2</td>
<td>2.0</td>
<td>2.0</td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Federal funds rate </td>
<td>4.4</td>
<td>3.9</td>
<td>3.4</td>
<td>3.1 </td>
<td>3.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Sept. projection</td>
<td>4.4</td>
<td>3.4</td>
<td>2.9</td>
<td>2.9</td>
<td>2.9</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Source: Federal Reserve </figcaption></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Markets Tumble After Fed </h3>
<ul>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 – as tracked by the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) – tumbled by 0.6% minutes following the decision, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 – tracked by the Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 – suffered heavier losses, down by 0.7%. </li>
<li>The U.S. dollar index – as closely tracked by the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>) – jumped 0.7%, eyeing the highest close since November 2022. </li>
<li>Treasury yields rallied with the 10-year benchmark yield rising to 4.44%. </li>
<li>Gold prices tanked 0.9%, and silver fell even more, down 1.7%. </li>
<li>Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) was 2% lower to $104,000. </li>
</ul>
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Illustration created using artificial intelligence via Midjourney.

Fed Slashes Interest Rates By 0.25% As Predicted: December Dot Plot Flags Only 2 Potential Cuts In 2025

On Tuesday, December 17, U.S. markets closed lower, with the Dow marking its longest losing streak since 1978. Bitcoin hit record highs, and Treasury yields steadied as investors awaited a &#8220;hawkish cut&#8221; from the Fed.
Strong U.S. retail sales highlighted economic resilience, contrasting with weaker Chinese data, while key central banks prepared for rate decisions amid inflation concerns.
In economic data, U.S. retail sales rose 0.7% in November, beating expectations of 0.5%, while industrial production fell 0.1%, improving from October&#8217;s 0.4% decline but missing forecasts of a 0.2% gain.
Most S&amp;P 500 sectors closed lower, led by losses in industrials, energy, and financials. However, consumer discretionary stocks outperformed, ending the session in positive territory.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.61% and closed at 43,449.90, the S&amp;P 500 closed lower by 0.39% at 6,050.61, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.32% to finish at 20,109.06.
Asia Markets Today
<ul>
<li>On Wednesday, Japan&#8217;s Nikkei 225 declined 0.73% and ended the session at 39,120.50, led by losses in the Marine Transport, Insurance, and Railway &amp; Bus sectors.</li>
<li>Australia&#8217;s S&amp;P/ASX 200 fell 0.06% and ended the day at 8,309.40, led by losses in the Financials, Consumer Discretionary and Gold sectors.</li>
<li>India&#8217;s Nifty 50 slid 0.50% to 24,213.40, and Nifty 500 was down 0.66%, closing at 22,943.80.</li>
<li>China&#8217;s Shanghai Composite rose 0.62% to close at 3,382.21, and the Shenzhen CSI 300 gained 0.51%, finishing the day at 3,941.89.</li>
<li>Hong Kong&#8217;s Hang Seng was up 0.83% and closed the session at 19,864.55.</li>
</ul>
Eurozone at 05:30 AM ET
<ul>
<li>The European STOXX 50 index was up 0.29%.</li>
<li>Germany&#8217;s DAX gained 0.24%.</li>
<li>France&#8217;s CAC rose 0.29%.</li>
<li>U.K.&#8217;s FTSE 100 index traded higher by 0.18%.</li>
</ul>
Commodities at 05:30 AM ET
<ul>
<li>Crude Oil WTI was trading higher by 0.10% at $70.15/bbl, and Brent was up 0.66% at $73.67/bbl.</li>
<li>Oil prices increased as investors stayed cautious of a potential Federal Reserve rate cut. A draw in U.S. crude inventories supported the market, while Fed policy decisions and geopolitical tensions added uncertainty.</li>
<li>Natural Gas rose 0.63% to $3.329.</li>
<li>Gold was trading higher by 0.07% at $2,663.64, Silver was down 0.07% to $30.898, and Copper gained 0.14% to $4.1520.</li>
</ul>
U.S. Futures at 05:30 AM ET
Dow futures were up 0.24%, S&amp;P 500 futures rose 0.28% and Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.25%.
Forex at 05:30 AM ET
The U.S. Dollar Index was up 0.04% to 107.00, USD/JPY rose 0.10% at 153.62, and USD/AUD rose 0.44% to 1.5850.
Photo by Pavel Bobrovskiy via Shutterstock

China And Europe Markets Advance, Dollar Strengthens Ahead Of Fed Meeting - Global Markets Today While US Slept

U.S. retail sales exceeded expectations in November, highlighting consumers&#8217; continued resilience in spending as <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/econ-s">the holiday season began.</a>
Retail and food services sales rose to $724.6 billion in November, a 0.7% increase from October, according to seasonally adjusted advance estimates released Tuesday.
The monthly growth outpaced market expectations of a 0.5% rise, based on consensus estimates from TradingEconomics.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Auto Sales Rocket</h3>
On a year-over-year basis, retail sales grew by a remarkable 3.8%, the highest since December 2023, up from the upwardly revised 2.9% in October.
Excluding motor vehicles and parts, retail sales advanced by 0.2% month-over-month, holding steady from October but missing expectations of 0.4%. When stripping out gasoline, motor vehicles, and parts, sales also rose by 0.2% in November, steady from October and below the expected 0.4%. 
Within spending categories, motor vehicle and parts recorded the largest monthly gain, with sales increasing 2.6% month-over-month and 6.5% year-over-year. 
Other increases were found in nonstore retailers, up 1.8% month-over-month and sporting goods, hobby, musical instrument, and book stores, up 0.9% on the month. 
On the other hand, miscellaneous store retailers registered the steepest monthly decline, with sales contracting 3.5%, followed by food services and drinking places, which saw sales fall 0.4%.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Market Reactions</h3>
The U.S. dollar index (DXY) which is tracked by the&nbsp;Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>) strengthened by 0.2%, following the data. 
Treasury yields ticked higher, with the 10-year benchmark up by 2 basis points to 4.42%. 
Futures on major U.S. equity indices edged lower in Tuesday&#8217;s premarket trading, with S&amp;P 500 contracts down 0.4% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 slipping 0.5%.
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Photo: Shutterstock

Retail Sales

November Retail Sales Hit 11-Month Highs, Signal Strong Holiday Demand

On Monday, December 16th, U.S. markets closed mixed, with the Nasdaq reaching a record high and the S&amp;P 500 rising as investors anticipated the Federal Reserve&#8217;s policy decision and a likely rate cut. Gains in the consumer sector offset weaker manufacturing data. Investor sentiment remained upbeat, driven by hopes for easing rates and economic resilience.
On the economic front, the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index dropped sharply to 0.20 in December from 31.2 the previous month, missing expectations. Meanwhile, the S&amp;P Global services PMI rose to 58.5 in December, while the manufacturing PMI fell to 48.3 from 49.7 in November.
Most S&amp;P 500 sectors closed lower, led by materials, energy, and healthcare, while consumer discretionary and communication services outperformed, ending higher.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.25% and closed at 43,717.48, the S&amp;P 500 closed higher by 0.38% to 6,074.08, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 1.24% to finish at 20,173.89.
Asia Markets Today
<ul>
<li>On Tuesday, Japan&#8217;s Nikkei 225 declined 0.13% and ended the session at 39,410.00, led by losses in the Shipbuilding, Warehousing, and Precision Instruments sectors.</li>
<li>Australia&#8217;s S&amp;P/ASX 200 gained 0.78% and ended the day at 8,314.00, led by gains in the Industrials, IT, and A-REITs sectors.</li>
<li>India&#8217;s Nifty 50 slid 1.41% to 24,320.30, and Nifty 500 was down 1.19%, closing at 23,075.15.</li>
<li>China&#8217;s Shanghai Composite fell 0.73% to close at 3,361.49, while the Shenzhen CSI 300 gained 0.26%, finishing the day at 3,922.03.</li>
<li>Hong Kong&#8217;s Hang Seng was down 0.48% and closed the session at 19,700.48.</li>
</ul>
Eurozone at 05:30 AM ET
<ul>
<li>The European STOXX 50 index was up 0.32%.</li>
<li>Germany&#8217;s DAX gained 0.18%.</li>
<li>France&#8217;s CAC rose 0.28%.</li>
<li>U.K.&#8217;s FTSE 100 index traded lower by 0.75%.</li>
</ul>
Commodities at 05:30 AM ET
<ul>
<li>Crude Oil WTI was trading lower by 1.44% at $69.69/bbl, and Brent was down 0.72% at $73.39/bbl.</li>
<li>Oil prices fell due to weak Chinese economic data and caution ahead of the Fed&#8217;s interest rate decision.</li>
<li>Natural Gas rose 0.65% to $3.235.</li>
<li>Gold was trading lower by 0.53% at $2,655.99, Silver was down 1.16% to $30.700, and Copper fell 1.14% to $4.1435.</li>
</ul>
U.S. Futures at 05:30 AM ET
Dow futures were down 0.35%, S&amp;P 500 futures fell 0.25% and Nasdaq 100 futures slid 0.04%.
Forex at 05:30 AM ET
<ul>
<li>The U.S. Dollar Index was up 0.17% to 107.03, USD/JPY was down 0.22% at 153.81, and USD/AUD rose 0.47% to 1.5770.</li>
<li>The U.S. dollar remained strong ahead of the Federal Reserve&#8217;s expected rate cut, supported by robust economic data and higher yields.</li>
</ul>
Image via Shutterstock

Asia Mostly Lower, Europe Markets Up As Dollar Strengthens Ahead Of Fed Rate Decision - Global Markets Today While US Slept

U.S. private sector activity closed out 2024 on a strong note, driven by robust growth <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/services">in the services sector</a>. 
The Services PMI surged to 58.5 in December, beating expectations of 55.8 and up from November&#8217;s 56.1 reading, according to data from S&amp;P Global. This marks the sector&#8217;s fastest expansion since October 2021 and reflects rising consumer <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/econ-s">demand and economic resilience.</a>
In stark contrast, the manufacturing sector contracted for a sixth consecutive month. Its PMI slipped to 48.5 from November's 49.7. This reading missed forecasts of 49.8, highlighting persistent challenges for goods-producing businesses. Higher raw material costs, inflation concerns, and tariff-related uncertainties weighed on manufacturers&#8217; sentiment.
Despite the manufacturing slowdown, the broader economy gained momentum. The Composite PMI, which measures activity across both sectors, climbed to 56.6, the sharpest expansion rate in nearly three years. Optimism among firms about future output also soared to its highest level since mid-2022, with employment ticking upward for the first time in five months.
Employment also edged higher for the first time in five months, S&amp;P Global highlighted. Firms expanded workforce numbers amid the brighter outlook
Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&amp;P Global, noted: "Business is booming in the U.S. services economy, where output is growing at the sharpest rate since the reopening of the economy from COVID lockdowns in 2021."
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Market Reaction: Stocks Surge, Dollar Steady</h3>
Wall Street welcomed the robust services data, with the S&amp;P 500 — tracked by the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) — gaining 0.4% and the Nasdaq 100 (via Invesco QQQ ETF) adding 0.9% to hit fresh all-time highs. 
Treasury yields remained flat, with the 10-year yield steady at 4.38%, while the dollar, as measured by the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>), traded sideways.
The divergence between a thriving services sector and struggling manufacturing highlights the evolving dynamics of the U.S. economy heading into 2025. While inflationary pressures remain a concern in the goods-producing sector, the cooling of cost growth in services offers a glimmer of hope for easing overall inflation.
Now Read:
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/24/12/42508408/what-is-going-on-with-alibaba-jd-li-auto-xpeng-stocks-on-monday">US-Listed Chinese Stocks React To Underwhelming Consumption Data</a></li>
</ul>
Image: Shutterstock

US Services Sector Booms At Fastest Pace Since October 2021, Business Activity Leaps To Over Two-Year Highs

On Friday, December 13th, U.S. markets closed mixed. The Nasdaq extended its upward streak while the S&amp;P 500 and Dow experienced declines.
Broadcom&#8217;s optimistic AI chip forecast drove a significant rise in shares, boosting tech sentiment as markets anticipate a Federal Reserve rate cut in the coming days.
In economic data, U.S. data showed import prices rose 0.1%, while the Producer Price Index increased 0.4%.
Among S&amp;P 500 sectors, Information Technology and Communication Services gained, driven by Broadcom&#8217;s surge. At the same time, Energy, Financials, Industrials, Consumer Staples, Real Estate, and Materials declined modestly, with Health Care and Utilities remaining flat.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.20% and closed at 43,828.06. The S&amp;P 500 closed almost flat, down by 0.003% to 6,051.09, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.12% to finish at 19,926.72.
Asia Markets Today
<ul>
<li>On Monday, Japan&#8217;s Nikkei 225 declined 0.07% and ended the session at 39,463.00, led by losses in the Shipbuilding, Warehousing, and Precision Instruments sectors.</li>
<li>Australia&#8217;s S&amp;P/ASX 200 slid 0.56% and ended the day at 8,249.50, led by losses in the Gold, Metals &amp; Mining and Materials sectors.</li>
<li>India&#8217;s Nifty 50 slid 0.48% to 24,649.10, and Nifty 500 was down 0.09% closing at 23,337.15, led by losses in the Metals, Technology and Fast Moving Consumer Goods sectors.</li>
<li>China&#8217;s Shanghai Composite fell 0.16% to close at 3,386.33, while the Shenzhen CSI 300 declined 0.54%, finishing the day at 3,911.84.</li>
<li>Hong Kong&#8217;s Hang Seng was down 0.88% and closed the session at 19,795.49.</li>
</ul>
Eurozone at 06:00 AM ET
<ul>
<li>The European STOXX 50 index was down 0.44%.</li>
<li>Germany&#8217;s DAX declined 0.14%.</li>
<li>France&#8217;s CAC fell 0.81%.</li>
<li>U.K.&#8217;s FTSE 100 index traded lower by 0.37%.</li>
</ul>
Commodities at 06:00 AM ET
<ul>
<li>Crude Oil WTI was trading lower by 1.61% at $70.15/bbl, and Brent was down 0.87% at $73.86/bbl.</li>
<li>Oil prices eased as traders took profits ahead of a key Federal Reserve meeting, while supply concerns over U.S. sanctions on Russia and Iran limited losses.</li>
<li>Natural Gas fell 3.72% to $3.157.</li>
<li>Gold was trading higher by 0.07% at $2,677.70, Silver was up 0.23% to $31.098, and Copper fell 0.53% to $4.1754.</li>
</ul>
U.S. Futures at 06:00 AM ET
Dow futures were up 0.08%, S&amp;P 500 futures were up 0.17%, and Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.30%.
Forex at 06:00 AM ET
<ul>
<li>The U.S. Dollar Index was up 0.02% to 107.03, USD/JPY was up 0.13% at 153.84, and USD/AUD rose 0.03% to 1.5745.</li>
<li>The dollar hovered near a three-week high as markets anticipated a measured Fed rate cut this week. Bitcoin soared to a record above $105,000, buoyed by Trump&#8217;s proposal for a U.S. bitcoin reserve.</li>
</ul>
Photo by Pavel Bobrovskiy via Shutterstock

Asia And Europe Markets Decline, Dollar Hovers 3-Week High - Global Markets Today While US Slept

On Thursday, December 12th, U.S. markets closed lower as investors assessed economic data ahead of the Federal Reserve&#8217;s meeting. Mixed signals from rising producer prices and climbing unemployment claims fueled uncertainty about inflation and the Fed&#8217;s rate cut trajectory, prompting profit-taking after recent market highs.
In economic data, U.S. initial jobless claims climbed to 242,000 in early December, surpassing market expectations of 220,000, signaling potential labor market softening. Meanwhile, core producer prices increased by 0.2% month-over-month in November.
The majority of S&amp;P 500 sectors fell, led by losses in healthcare, consumer discretionary, and communication services, while consumer staples gained.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.53% and closed at 43,914.12, the S&amp;P 500 declined 0.54% to 6,051.25, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.66% to finish at 19,902.84.
Asia Markets Today
<ul>
<li>On Friday, Japan&#8217;s Nikkei 225 declined 1.02% and ended the session at 39,490.50, led by losses in the Shipbuilding, Paper &amp; Pulp, and Finance &amp; Investment sectors.</li>
<li>Australia&#8217;s S&amp;P/ASX 200 slid 0.41% and ended the day at 8,296.00, led by losses in the Gold, Metals &amp; Mining and Materials sectors.</li>
<li>India&#8217;s Nifty 50 rose 0.96% to 24,783.30, and the Nifty 500 was up 0.47%, closing at 23,365.45. Gains in the Technology, Consumer Durables, and Banking sectors led the index.</li>
<li>China&#8217;s Shanghai Composite fell 2.01% to close at 3,391.88, while the Shenzhen CSI 300 fell 2.37%, finishing the day at 3,933.18.</li>
<li>Hong Kong&#8217;s Hang Seng was down 2.09% and closed the session at 19,971.24.</li>
<li>Asian markets dropped Friday as China&#8217;s lack of detailed stimulus measures disappointed investors.</li>
</ul>
Eurozone at 05:30 AM ET
<ul>
<li>The European STOXX 50 index was up 0.29%.</li>
<li>Germany&#8217;s DAX gained 0.31%.</li>
<li>France&#8217;s CAC rose 0.19%.</li>
<li>U.K.&#8217;s FTSE 100 index traded higher by 0.02%.</li>
</ul>
Commodities at 05:30 AM ET
<ul>
<li>Crude Oil WTI was trading higher by 0.91% at $70.64/bbl, and Brent was up 0.84% at $74.00/bbl.</li>
<li>Natural Gas gained 0.46% to $3.472.</li>
<li>Gold was trading lower by 0.75% at $2,689.01, Silver was down 0.96% to $31.317, and Copper fell 0.35% to $4.2300.</li>
</ul>
U.S. Futures at 05:30 AM ET
Dow futures were up 0.23%, S&amp;P 500 futures were up 0.32%, and Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.65%.
Forex at 05:30 AM ET
The U.S. Dollar Index was up 0.02% to 106.98, USD/JPY was up 0.54% at 153.45, and USD/AUD slid 0.01% to 1.5703.
Photo by Pavel Bobrovskiy via Shutterstock

Asia Ex-India Fall On China Stimulus Concerns, Europe Up; Dollar Gains - Global Markets Today While US Slept

Risk sentiment soured on Thursday following hotter-than-expected producer inflation data, which dampened optimism for aggressive interest rate cuts in 2025. Adding to the uncertainty, an unexpected rise in jobless claims cast doubt on the resilience <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/24/12/42467265/stocks-fall-as-producer-inflation-spikes-jobless-claims-jump-what-is-happening-here">of the U.S. labor market.</a>
Major U.S. stock indices were in the red during midday trading in New York. The Nasdaq 100 slipped 0.4%, retreating from its record highs reached in the previous session, while small caps underperformed as the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IWM#NYSE">IWM</a>) dropped 1%.
The Producer Price Index surged to 3% year-over-year in November, its highest level since February 2023, outpacing both forecasts and the upwardly revised 2.6% from October. On the labor front, weekly jobless claims rose by 17,000 to 242,000, exceeding consensus estimates of 220,000.
Treasury yields ticked higher, with the 10-year benchmark yield climbing 4 basis points to 4.31%, as investors placed greater emphasis on the robust inflation reading. However, expectations for a 25-basis-point rate cut at the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting remained intact, with Fed futures pricing in a 98% probability.
In currency markets, the U.S. Dollar Index, as measured by the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>), edged up 0.1%, while gold prices slid more than 1%.
Natural gas prices soared nearly 5%, reaching levels not seen since late October 2023, after a steep storage draw fueled buying momentum.
In cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) traded modestly higher, up 0.3% to $101,500, while Ethereum (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/eth/usd">ETH</a>) gained 3.1%.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Thursday&#8217;s Performance In Major US Indices, ETFs</h3>
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Major Indices</td>
<td>Price</td>
<td>1-day %chg</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>S&amp;P 500</td>
<td>6,073.41</td>
<td>-0.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Dow Jones</td>
<td>44,020.82</td>
<td>-0.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nasdaq 100</td>
<td>21,687.46</td>
<td>-0.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Russell 2000</td>
<td>2,371.79</td>
<td>-0.9%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Updated at 1:15 p.m. ET</figcaption></figure>
According to&nbsp;<a href="https://bzresearch.myclickfunnels.com/benzinga-pro-content-webinar-registration/?utm_source=BZprocontent121224&amp;t=be2bearmibe3na1">Benzinga Pro</a>&nbsp;data:
<ul>
<li>The&nbsp;SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) eased 0.1% to $606.65.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DIA#NYSE">DIA</a>)&nbsp;fell 0.2% to $441.69.</li>
<li>The tech-heavy&nbsp;Invesco QQQ Trust Series&nbsp;(NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>) edged 0.2% down to $528.71.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;iShares Russell 2000 ETF&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IWM#NYSE">IWM</a>) fell 0.9% to $235.90.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLP#NYSE">XLP</a>) outperformed, up by 0.5%; the&nbsp;Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLV#NYSE">XLV</a>) lagged, down 0.5%.</li>
</ul>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Thursday&#8217;s Stock Movers</h2>
<ul>
<li>Adobe Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ADBE#NASDAQ">ADBE</a>) tumbled by over 12%, despite beating Street&#8217;s profit and revenue estimates last quarter, as the company lowered guidance for the first quarter of 2025. </li>
<li>Nordson Corp. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NDSN#NASDAQ">NDSN</a>) tumbled 9%, while Ciena Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CIEN#NYSE">CIEN</a>) rose 16% in reaction to earnings.</li>
<li>Major companies slated to report earnings after the close include Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AVGO#NASDAQ">AVGO</a>) and Costco Wholesale Corp. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/COST#NASDAQ">COST</a>).</li>
</ul>
Read now: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/24/12/42466189/trump-talks-stocks-bitcoin-ai-economy-with-jim-cramer-youre-going-to-see-some-very-good-days-ahead">Trump Talks Stocks, Bitcoin, AI, Economy With Jim Cramer: &#8216;You&#8217;re Going To See Some Very Good Days Ahead&#8217;</a></li>
</ul>
Photo: Shutterstock

Sector ETFs

Bonds

$ETH

ADBE

AVGO

CIEN

COST

NDSN

Stocks Slip On Hot Inflation Data, Adobe Tumbles, Natural Gas Hits 1-Year High: What's Driving Markets Thursday?

Wall Street faced a murky morning on Thursday as fresh data revealed a jump in wholesale prices alongside a sharp rise in jobless claims. These conflicting signals rattled investors, casting doubt on the trajectory of the economy and the Federal <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/interest-rates">Reserve&#8217;s interest rate strategy.</a>
The S&amp;P 500 index – as tracked by the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) – fell by 0.2%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 – tracked by the Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>) – dropped 0.4%. Small caps fared worse, with the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IWM#NYSE">IWM</a>) shedding 0.9%. 
Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index – as tracked by the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>) – strengthened after an initial dip.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Wholesale Inflation Soars: PPI Hits 3%, Highest Since February 2023</h3>
The Producer Price Index (PPI) surged to 3% year-over-year in November, the steepest increase since February 2023. This marked a jump from October&#8217;s revised 2.6% and exceeded economists&#8217; forecasts of 2.6%. On a monthly basis, PPI rose 0.4%, doubling market expectations.
Core PPI inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, climbed 0.2% for the month (meeting estimates) and hit 3.4% annually.
These numbers come on the heels of November's Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which showed a 2.7% year-over-year increase, as expected.
Six out of the last seven PPI inflation reports have been revised higher, as The Kobeissi Letter highlighted on social media X 
"CPI, PPI, and PCE inflation are all officially back on the rise in the United States. What is happening here?"
<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"> 
<div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">BREAKING: The US Bureau of Labor Statistics has revised October PPI inflation HIGHER, from 2.4% to 2.6%. Also, Core PPI inflation for October has been revised HIGHER from 3.1% to 3.4%. This means that 6 out of the last 7 PPI inflation reports have now been revised higher. With… <a href="https://t.co/hOiCV1Cy8u">pic.twitter.com/hOiCV1Cy8u</a>
&mdash; The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) <a href="https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1867202075102204303?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 12, 2024</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></div>
</figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Jobless Claims Climb</h3>
Adding to the turbulence, initial jobless claims jumped by 17,000 last week to 242,000, smashing expectations of 220,000. This marks the sharpest increase since October. Continuing claims, which measure people still receiving unemployment benefits, climbed to 1.886 million, nearing the three-year high of 1.908 million recorded last month.
Jobless claims rose significantly in states like California, up by 14,800, Texas, up by 9,500, and New York, up by 9,200.
This outcome may challenge the idea that the U.S. labor market remains tight. 
As highlighted by Nick Timiraos, chief economics correspondent at the Wall Street Journal, continuing claims for unemployment insurance are now running slightly above levels seen in 2018-2019.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Economist Reactions: What&#8217;s Next For The Fed? </h3>
&#8220;Look for these numbers to fuel something I&#8217;ve been posting about for a while: the likelihood of relatively sticky inflation, and, associated with that, the choice that the Fed will face in its policy deliberation on the &#8220;last mile&#8221; to its inflation target of 2%," economist Mohamed El Erian wrote on X. 
Clark Bellin, president of Bellwether Wealth, said, "While Thursday&#8217;s PPI was stronger-than-expected, we believe the Federal Reserve will still proceed with its expected 25 basis-point rate cut in December."
Yet, persistent inflation and a weakening labor market may limit the Fed&#8217;s flexibility in 2025. "The trajectory for interest rates remains uncertain," Bellin added.
Bank of America&#8217;s economist Stephen Juneau offered a more tempered view, stating: "We expect core PCE to rise by 0.1% m/m in November, with risk of rounding up to 0.2%. This would leave the y/y rate at 2.8%."
&#8220;This would be welcome news for the Fed after core PCE rose by 0.3% m/m in October and September,&#8221; he added. 
Bank of America expects the Fed to cut in December and then two more times next year in March and June for a terminal of 3.75%-4.00%.
Read Next: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/24/12/42464081/trump-wins-time-person-of-year-rings-nyse-opening-bell-highlights-growth-ahead-the-economy-i-believe-is-going-to-be-very-strong">Trump Rings NYSE Opening Bell, Says Economy &#8216;Is Going To Be Very Strong&#8217;</a></li>
</ul>
Photo: Shutterstock

Analyst Color

Stocks Fall As Producer Inflation Spikes, Jobless Claims Jump: 'What Is Happening Here?'

The inflation measured on U.S. producer prices rose more sharply than anticipated in November, marking its second consecutive increase and casting a shadow over the broader outlook for<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/inflation"> disinflation in the economy.</a>
In November, the producer price index increased by 3% year-over-year — the highest since February 2023 — marking a significant uptick from October&#8217;s upwardly revised 2.6% and economist forecasts of 2.6%, as tracked by TradingEconomics.
This official data, released on Thursday, follows a rise in the consumer price index inflation to 2.7% annually last <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/24/12/42436676/inflation-rises-as-expected-in-november-sustain-hopes-for-next-weeks-fed-interest-rate-cut">month, aligning with estimates.</a>
On a monthly basis, the PPI climbed 0.4%, exceeding both the previous month&#8217;s upwardly revised 0.3% and the forecasted figure of 0.2%. 
Excluding volatile items such as food and energy, the core PPI rose by 3.4% annually, matching an upwardly revised 3.4% in October and above expectations of 3.2%. This marks the fifth consecutive increase in underlying producer prices, with inflation reaching its highest level since June 2024.
On a monthly basis, the core PPI increased by 0.2%, a slight decline from October&#8217;s 0.3%, meeting projections.
Simultaneously, jobless claims rose more than expected to 242,000 for the week ending Dec. 7, surpassing estimates of 220,000. 
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Producer Prices Are Rising: Why It Matters</h3>
Before the release of the PPI report, investors were nearly fully pricing in an interest rate cut at the Federal Reserve&#8217;s monetary policy meeting next week.
While the robust PPI data is unlikely to halt the widely expected 25-basis-point interest rate cut, it could draw attention during Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference, potentially prompting more cautious commentary.
Policymakers aim to maintain consumer prices near the 2% target, but a stronger-than-expected increase in producer input prices could eventually pass through to consumer prices if the trend continues.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Market Reactions</h3>
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), tracked through the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>), rose 0.1% following the report. 
Session gains for the greenback were further supported by an interest rate cut from the European Central Bank. 
The ECB reduced its interest rate by 25 basis points to 3%, as widely anticipated. This decision drove the euro-dollar exchange rate below the 1.05 level.
Treasury yields remained steady after the PPI report, as the upward impact from hotter inflation was simultaneously counterbalanced by downward pressure from rising jobless claims. 
U.S. equity futures turned negative in premarket trading in New York. Futures contracts for the S&amp;P 500 fell 0.4%, reflecting heightened investor caution.
Read Next: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/24/12/42456905/us-stocks-to-open-lower-despite-strong-probability-of-upcoming-fed-rate-cut-market-breadth-skewed-in-the-favor-of-bears-over-the-last-seven-session">Wall Street Poised To Open Lower A Day After Nasdaq&#8217;s Record Close Above 20,000: Expert Flags &#8216;Deterioration Under The Surface&#8217; As 117 S&amp;P 500 Stocks Hit New Monthly Lows</a></li>
</ul>
Photo via Shutterstock.

Producer Inflation Rises More Than Expected To 3% In November: All Eyes On The Fed's Interest Rate Call

Wall Street kicked off Wednesday on a positive note as November inflation data came in line with expectations, leaving traders confident in the likelihood of a Federal Reserve interest <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/24/12/42436676/inflation-rises-as-expected-in-november-sustain-hopes-for-next-weeks-fed-interest-rate-cut">rate cut next week.</a>
The Consumer Price Index rose 2.7% year-over-year in November, slightly above October's 2.6% annual rate, but perfectly aligned with economist forecasts. Core inflation, which excludes volatile categories like food and energy, remained flat at an annual rate of 3.3%, also meeting expectations.
Following the report, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Fed's Dec. 18 meeting surged to 96%, up from 86% before the data release, as per CME FedWatch. 
This leaves little doubt that investors are almost fully pricing in an easing move by the central bank, pushing back any fears of a potential pause. 
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Market Reactions: Stocks Rally, Treasury Yields Dip</h3>
Key equity indices reflected growing optimism:
<ul>
<li>The S&amp;P 500, tracked by the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>), gained 0.5%.</li>
<li>The Nasdaq 100, represented by the Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>), rallied 1% to 21,556 points, just shy of its all-time high of 21,626 set last Friday.</li>
<li>Blue-chip stocks traded flat, while small caps, tracked by the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IWM#NYSE">IWM</a>), climbed 0.7%.</li>
</ul>
In the bond market, Treasury yields fell across maturities:
<ul>
<li>The 2-year Treasury yield, which is particularly sensitive to monetary policy moves, dropped 4 basis points to 4.10%.</li>
<li>The benchmark 10-year yield declined by 2 basis points to 4.20%.</li>
<li>The popular iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) ticked up 0.1%.</li>
</ul>
Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index (DXY) – as tracked by the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>) – held steady. 
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Standout Stock Performers</h3>
<ul>
<li>Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>) climbed 1.2% to $412 per share, marking its highest level since November 2021. The rally followed Goldman Sachs' 12-month price target increase from $250 to $345. </li>
<li>Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AVGO#NASDAQ">AVGO</a>) surged 4%, nearly erasing its Tuesday losses as demand recovery in semiconductors bolstered sentiment.</li>
<li>Boeing Co. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BA#NYSE">BA</a>) gained 2.8%, extending its rally to a third session after confirming the resumption of 737 MAX production.</li>
<li>Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOGL#NASDAQ">GOOGL</a>) rose 2.7%, adding to its 5.3% jump on Tuesday. Shares reached levels last seen in July and moved tantalizingly close to record highs. </li>
</ul>
Read now: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/price-target/24/12/42434317/tsla-stock-surges-in-premarket-after-multiple-price-target-hikes">TSLA Stock Surges In Wednesday Pre-Market After Multiple Price Target Hikes: Elon Musk-Led EV Giant Has Made Investors $490 Billion Richer So Far In 2024</a></li>
</ul>
Image: Shutterstock

Tech

GOOGL

Wall Street Gains, Tech Rallies, Tesla Hits All-Time High As Inflation Data Firms Up Fed's Next Interest Rate Cut

Inflationary pressures intensified as expected in November, but the trend is beginning to show signs of stickiness, posing fresh challenges to the Federal Reserve&#8217;s 2% target <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/inflation">after months of disinflation.</a>
The Consumer Price Index rose by 2.7% year-over-year in November 2024, exceeding October&#8217;s 2.6% reading and matching analyst estimates of 2.7%, according to TradingEconomics. This marks the second consecutive increase in annual inflation — a trend not seen since April.
On a monthly basis, the CPI jumped 0.3%, accelerating from October's 0.2% gain and matching expectations of a 0.3% rise, official data released Wednesday shows.
The index for shelter rose 0.3% in November, representing 40% of the monthly overall inflation increase.
Items that surged in November include shelter, used cars and trucks, household furnishings and operations, medical care, new vehicles and recreation. &#8220;The index for communication was among the few major indexes that decreased over the month,&#8221; the Bureau of Labor Statistics said in a press release. 
Core inflation, which excludes volatile items like food and energy, remained stubbornly high at 3.3% year-over-year, in line with forecasts and consistent with the previous two months. This persistent level underscores the challenges in taming underlying price pressures. On a monthly basis, core inflation rose 0.3%, unchanged from October and matching expectations.
Indexes that increased in November include shelter, used cars and trucks, household furnishings and operations, medical care, new vehicles and recreation. The index for communication was among the few major indexes that decreased over the month.
Services inflation grew by 4.6% on a year-over-year basis, marking a slowdown from October's 4.8% figure.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">November Inflation Report: Key Highlights</h3>
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Metric</th>
<th>November 2024</th>
<th>October 2024</th>
<th>Estimate</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>CPI (year-over-year)</td>
<td>2.7%</td>
<td>2.6%</td>
<td>2.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>CPI (month-over-month)</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Core CPI (YoY)</td>
<td>3.3%</td>
<td>3.3%</td>
<td>3.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Core CPI (MoM)</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Interest Rate Cut Expectations Under Scrutiny</h3>
The November CPI report comes just one week before the Federal Reserve&#8217;s final policy meeting of 2024. 
Markets have widely priced in a 86% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut, anticipating further easing.
The U.S. dollar index, as tracked by Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>), showed no major reactions after the report, holding gains of 0.2% for the session.
Treasury yields slightly fell, with the rate-sensitive two-year note yield down by 2 basis points to 4.14%.
Equity futures rose during premarket trading. S&amp;P 500 futures were 0.4% higher. 
Read Next:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/12/42426732/wall-street-veteran-slams-feds-rate-cut-plans-wake-up-to-economic-realities">Wall Street Veteran Slams Fed&#8217;s Rate Cut Plans: &#8216;Wake Up To Economic Realities&#8217;</a></li>
</ul>
Photo via Shutterstock.

Inflation Rises As Expected In November, Sustains Hopes For December Interest Rate Cut

An analysis and commentary on the financial markets.

AskSlim Market Week - Friday, Dec. 20

The dollar backed off sharply from its recent peak into the 108's. VIX dropped like a rock.

Stocks And Precious Metals Charts - Sliding Into The End

The USD/CAD pair gathers strength to near 1.4405 during the early Asian session on Friday, bolstered by the firmer Greenback broadly.

USD/CAD Holds Positive Ground Above 1.4400, Eyes On Canadian Retail Sales, US Core PCE Data

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the USD against a basket of currencies, took a hit after soft Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data was released during the European session.

US Dollar Edges Lower After Soft PCE Data

PCE Prints Cool: Validates Our Dovish View On Inflation

Though stocks may be rebounding today, what is actually fuelling this move?

A Mini-Depression Is On The Horizon

Key Charts That Defined Markets And The Economy In 2024

Brake Lights Ahead

The USD/JPY pair pulled back from its highest levels since July, as the currency cross retreated to the 156.50 mark following the release of US Personal Consumption Expenditure data. Softer inflation metrics moderated momentum for the US dollar.

USD/JPY Retreated To 156.50 After Reaching Multi-Month Highs On Softer US PCE Data

In this video, I cover the effect that the Fed-induced stock market crash and panic selling had on the major asset classes. Will the market rebound?

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