에 대한 최신 뉴스 Vanguard Real Estate ETF (ARCA:VNQ)

Vanguard Real Estate ETF

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The Fund employs an indexing investment approach designed to track the performance of the MSCI US Investable Market Real Estate 25/50 Index (the Index), an index that is made up of stocks of large, mid-size, and small U.S. companies within the real estate sector, as classified under the Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS).

Vanguard Real Estate Ii Index Fund Institutional Plus Shares

Prologis Inc

American Tower Corp

Equinix, Inc.

Welltower Inc.

Simon Property Group Inc

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Realty Income Corp.

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Cbre Group Inc. Class A

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한 번의 높은 CPI 수치로 경각심을 불러일으키기 어렵지만, 투자자와 소비자들은 경계심을 갖게 되었다. 이전에 기록했던 CPI 9%라는 수치의 상처는 여전히 모든 사람의 마음에 생생하게 남아 있으며, 몇 번 더 높은 수치가 나온다면 2025년의 금리인하 희망이 사라질 수 있다. 인플레이션이 다시 시작되면 일부 섹터는 다른 섹터보다 더 제대로 대비해야 한다.

인플레이션 재상승 우려 속 피해야 할 섹터 5개

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2025년은 미국 주택 시장에 혁신적인 해가 될 것으로 예상되며, 새로운 기회를 제공하는 동시에 모든 이들을 긴장하게 만들 것이다. 질로우 그룹(NASDAQ:ZG) (NASDAQ:Z)의 최신 예측에 따르면, 구매자, 판매자 및 임차자에게 변화하는 역학관계를 보여준다. Vanguard Real Estate ETF(NYSE:VNQ), Schwab US REIT ETF(NYSE:SCHH) 및 Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund(NYSE:XLRE)에 투자하는 이들은 이러한 역학관계를 면밀히 추적해야 한다.

2025년을 위한 주택 시장 5가지 트렌드: 질로우의 예측이 당신에게 미치는 영향

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상업용 부동산 업계는 원격 근무와 인플레이션 상승의 영향으로 계속해서 어려움을 겪고 있다. 이자율이 상승하고 다양한 산업 분야에서 사무실 공간을 축소하려는 광범위한 추세로 인해 이 분야는 전례 없는 규모의 빈 사무실 공간에 직면하게 되었다.

기술 부문 인력 감원, 재택근무로 사무실 공실율 19.6% 상승, 1979년 이후 최고 수준

Vanguard Global ex-U.S. Real Estate ETF

Existing home sales rebounded sharply in February, marking a 4.2% monthly increase, while median prices inched closer<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/real-estate"> to the $400,000 milestone. </a>
With inventory rising but still tight, some analysts say the housing market may be setting up for another leg higher, potentially defying affordability concerns.
According to a report released Thursday by the National Association of Realtors, February&#8217;s seasonally adjusted annualized sales rate hit 4.26 million homes. While that's down 1.2% from a year earlier, it marks a notable reversal from recent months of stagnation.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Rising Prices, Tighter Inventory: Recipe For Another Surge?</h3>
The median sales price of an existing home climbed 3.8% year-over-year to $398,400, its 20th consecutive month of gains. Even as higher mortgage rates have sidelined some buyers, a persistent housing shortage is keeping pressure on prices.
Inventory has been a persistent issue in the housing market, with the supply of unsold homes rising 5.1% from January to 1.24 million units. At the current sales pace, that represents 3.5 months' worth of supply—a slight improvement but still well below the six-month threshold considered balanced for buyers and sellers.
&#8220;Home buyers are slowly entering the market,&#8221; said NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun. &#8220;Mortgage rates have not changed much, but more inventory and choices are releasing pent-up housing demand.&#8221;
Despite rising supply, housing shortages remain a structural issue. Homeowners who locked in ultra-low mortgage rates during the pandemic have been reluctant to sell, constraining inventory and keeping prices elevated.
Each 1% increase in home prices translates into approximately $350 billion in added housing equity for U.S. property owners, Yun said. That's nearly $1.3 trillion in home value appreciation at a time when the stock market is undergoing a correction.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Anomaly Between Housing And Wages</h3>
Bravos Research, in a Thursday email, highlighted the extraordinary divergence between home prices and wages.
&#8220;U.S. housing&#8217;s next big move could shock everyone,&#8221; analysts said.
Over the last decade, home prices have jumped 150%, while wages have risen just 57%. In contrast, during the 1980-2003 period, it took 23 years for home prices to climb that much.
"Today, home prices are at the highest levels in history relative to wages, making this one of the most unaffordable housing markets of the last 60 years," Bravos Research noted.
With home prices climbing and affordability worsening, some fear a repeat of the 2008 housing crash. Yet, key differences in debt levels and lending standards suggest otherwise.
A decade ago, the U.S. housing market was propped up by excessive leverage. In 2007, mortgage debt represented 75% of the country's GDP. But today, that figure has steadily declined below 50%, signaling a more stable credit environment.
Unlike the lead-up to the financial crisis, home prices are rising without reckless mortgage lending.
This suggests that, while expensive, housing is not in a speculative bubble fueled by debt, according to Bravos Research. 
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Could Home Prices Climb Another 50%?</h3>
Historically, real estate values and stock markets tend to move in sync. Yet today, while stocks have surged, home prices have lagged.
Bravos Research pointed to a similar divergence in the late 1990s—right before housing prices took off.
&#8220;We actually believe home prices can still climb!&#8221; the firm said. &#8220;This could suggest as much as a 50% rise in home prices over the next few years—comparable to what we saw between 2019 and 2022.&#8221;
If history repeats itself, real estate values may be poised for another sharp leg higher.
The Vanguard Real Estate ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VNQ#NYSE">VNQ</a>) is up nearly 3% year-to-date, outperforming the S&amp;P 500 index, tracked by the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>), which has fallen by 3.5% in the same period. 
Read now: 
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/regulations/25/03/44416782/trump-pressures-fed-to-cut-interest-rates-as-liberation-day-in-america-looms">Trump Urges Fed To Cut Interest Rates As &#8216;Liberation Day In America&#8217; Looms</a></li>
</ul>
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US Home Sales Jump In February, Median Price Nears $400,000: 'Next Big Move Could Shock Everyone,' Analysts Say

WIIM

Shares of real estate ETFs are trading higher following a decline in treasury yields which can lower borrowing costs.

Investors in the United States received a jolt last week as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in at 3%, one of the hottest inflation readings in months. The CPI had been steadily declining since topping 9% in 2022, and markets had assumed that the Federal Reserve was on track to get close to the 2% target benchmark by the end of the year.
But this hot print raises some questions. Are these one-off effects from seasonal incidences or consumers getting ahead of potential tariffs? Or are specific inputs like food and energy flashing warning signs of a new inflationary wave?
While one hot CPI report is hardly cause for alarm, it did put investors and consumers on guard. The scars of 9% readings are still fresh in everyone's mind, and a few more hot prints could end any rate cut hopes for 2025. If inflation reignites, some sectors will be better prepared than others.
Here are five sectors to consider avoiding if inflation stays high.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Consumer Discretionary</h2>
When inflation roared following the COVID-19 pandemic, consumers buckled down and focused on essentials over luxuries and experiences. Inflation frequently hurts companies in the consumer discretionary sectors that depend on infrequent purchases or have more affordable substitutes. It also erodes purchasing power, giving consumers less income for disposable goods.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="420" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20154223/arca-1024x420.png" alt="" class="wp-image-791862" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20154223/arca-1024x420.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20154223/arca-300x123.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20154223/arca-768x315.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20154223/arca.png 1309w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
The iShares US Consumer Discretionary ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IYC#NYSE">IYC</a>) chart shows that the sector topped out in November 2021 and failed to make new highs for nearly three years. The ETF has increased 28% over the last 12 months as CPI receded closer to 2%, but a new wave could stifle the sector, especially in industries like automakers, home builders, travel companies, and luxury apparel brands. If inflation continues moving higher in the next few months, consider reducing exposure to stocks like cruise lines, hotels, and specialty retailers.&nbsp;
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)</h2>
Thanks to their strong dividends, REITs are sometimes considered an inflation hedge. However, inflation also tends to increase borrowing costs through higher rates, and debt-laden companies like REITs don't enjoy paying more to finance their activities. When borrowing costs rise, REITs may choose to slow down expansion or stop increasing dividend payouts. High rates can also lock homebuyers out of the market as they wait for better financing options.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="420" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20154234/van-1024x420.png" alt="" class="wp-image-791863" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20154234/van-1024x420.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20154234/van-300x123.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20154234/van-768x315.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20154234/van.png 1309w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
The Vanguard Real Estate ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VNQ#NYSE">VNQ</a>) lost 37% between December 2021 and October 2023, showing that REITs aren't immune to hot CPI prints and Fed rate hikes. If inflation stays high, REITs that own high-vacancy properties or are located in stagnant markets would be most at risk of a drawdown.
Commercial REITs are especially at risk as companies often headcount when rates are high, and work-from-home continues to become more standard at large companies (although some are fighting to bring workers back to the office). When researching REITs, avoid companies with high debt levels, a poor property portfolio, and high dividend payout ratios.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Biotechnology</h2>
The biotech sector is always a tumultuous place to invest, and periods of high inflation and uncertainty can exacerbate that fact by several degrees. Biotech innovations are expensive and time-consuming, with results often coming months or years down the road. When investors adopt short-term mindsets, sectors like biotech that require extended periods of testing and trials lose favor.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="420" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20154243/pdr-1024x420.png" alt="" class="wp-image-791864" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20154243/pdr-1024x420.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20154243/pdr-300x123.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20154243/pdr-768x315.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20154243/pdr.png 1309w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
The biotech sector has yet to recover from the bear market of 2022, and persistent inflation and high rates could spell more trouble for the beleaguered industry. Biotech companies chew up capital like dogs on a steak, requiring extensive upfront investment in research and development.
Many early-stage biotechs have no revenue and rely solely on debt to stay afloat. When the cost of supplies and financing rises, these companies often need to sell more stock than they'd prefer, which dilutes existing shareholders. Coupled with the fact that investors seek to reduce risk in uncertain periods, the biotech sector looks dicey to start 2025.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Industrials</h2>
Like biotech, the industrial sector has two significant headwinds working against it when inflation is high: long timeframes and capital-intensive projects. Industrial companies build homes, produce heavy equipment, or transport valuable raw goods, all requiring lots of pre-planning and capital.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="420" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20154252/spdr-ser-1024x420.png" alt="" class="wp-image-791865" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20154252/spdr-ser-1024x420.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20154252/spdr-ser-300x123.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20154252/spdr-ser-768x315.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20154252/spdr-ser.png 1309w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
The SDPR Sector Select Industrial Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLI#NYSE">XLI</a>) has enjoyed a nice rebound after trading in a tight range throughout 2022 and 2023. However, if inflation also rebounds, companies in this sector will be forced to pay higher capital costs and may have to put projects on hold. The industrial sector is highly cyclical, and slowdowns often trickle into other market sectors.
Additionally, industrial companies employ large workforces and often have weaker pricing power than sectors less reliant on operational capital. As mentioned above, expensive and time-consuming is a bad combination when inflation or interest rates are high.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Utilities</h2>
Utilities are supposed to be a safe sector during market drawdowns – typically. They are a safe haven during bear markets because of their low volatility and reliable dividends. But your typical market drawdown doesn't involve high rates and CPI over 3%, and utilities aren't always the safest hideout in those conditions. The performance of the SDPR Sector Select Utilities ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLU#NYSE">XLU</a>) below shows that bear markets aren't always a boon to the sector.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="420" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20154259/spdr-util-1024x420.png" alt="" class="wp-image-791866" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20154259/spdr-util-1024x420.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20154259/spdr-util-300x123.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20154259/spdr-util-768x315.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20154259/spdr-util.png 1309w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
The appeal of utilities comes not from capital appreciation but from the quarterly dividends. Income through dividends creates a bond-like instrument for many investors, who pair utilities with riskier stocks like tech stocks to have both growth and income assets. However, if inflation rises, rates follow, and high rates will make actual bonds like US Treasuries and corporate debt more appealing.
Suppose investors can get a similar yield from a US Treasury bill as a utility stock. In that case, they'll naturally lean toward the Treasury bill, which locks in a coupon payment and guarantees a return of capital once the term ends. Additionally, utilities are debt-laden and subject to heavy regulatory scrutiny. Regulatory lag could hurt these companies&#8217; bottom lines as price increases often must be approved by law.
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5 Sectors to Avoid as Inflation Returns

The January Consumer Price Index came in higher than expected with inflation hot to start<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/regulations/25/02/43656846/inflation-rises-more-than-expected-in-january-chills-interest-rate-cut-hopes"> 2025.</a>
What Happened: CPI rose 3% on a year-over-year basis in January, missing expectations for 2.9%. <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/cpi">CPI was up</a> 0.5% on an adjusted basis from December to January, up from 0.4% in the previous report.
Rising inflation figures have now pushed back expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut to December 2025.
The 0.5% <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf">monthly </a>CPI figure was the largest increase since August 2023 and it adds to consumers&#8217; worries for 2025 on the heels of potential tariffs that could increase prices on everyday goods and services.
Within the CPI report, housing data showed rising costs. Rent of primary residence rose 0.3% in January and rose 4.2% on a year-over-year basis.
Owners' equivalent of residences was also up 0.3% in January and is now up 4.6% on a year-over-year basis.
While the housing figures rose in January, rent price inflation is cooling. Comerica Bank&#8217;s chief economist Bill Adams said the cooling rent price inflation was the "one piece of good news for consumers" in the CPI report.
"The year-over-year increase of rent of primary residence was the coolest since February 2022," Adams said, adding that the report showed rent increases could show relief in the rest of 2025.
Core CPI, which excludes food and energy rose 0.4% in January and is up 3.3% on a year-over-year basis, rising from 3.2% year-over-year in the last report.
Economist Joseph Brusuelas highlighted the rising rents and housing costs in his breakdown of the CPI data.
"Take a look at rents. They are up 4.6% from one year ago. Housing costs up 3.8%, rent of primary residence 4.2% and shelter 4.4%. Even lodging away from home is up 3%," Brusuelas tweeted.
Read Also:<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/02/43660298/inflation-spike-sparks-dollar-rally-yields-jump-while-bitcoin-stocks-slide-as-interest-rate-cut-doubts-grow"> Inflation Spike Sparks Dollar Rally: Yields Jump, Bitcoin And Stocks Slide As Interest Rate Cut Doubts Grow</a>
Why It's Important: Ahead of the CPI report, President Donald Trump called for lower interest rates. With rising inflation and a worse than expected report, the Federal Reserve could delay further rate cuts.
On Tuesday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell told the Senate Banking Committee the Fed<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/02/43628752/feds-powell-reiterates-no-hurry-to-cut-interest-rates-as-inflation-remains-somewhat-elevated"> was in no hurry</a> to adjust interest rates. Powell cited continued inflation as the Fed works towards a 2% inflation goal.
"Inflation remains somewhat elevated," Powell said.
While the Fed has cut rates in recent months, Powell said "we do not need to be in a hurry to adjust our policy stance."
Mortgage rates do not always go down when the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, but the two items often trade in pair. With concerns that the Fed will not cut rates again until late 2025, mortgage rates could face pressure and consumers looking to buy homes could be forced to wait for lower rates and rent or pay the higher price.
Mortgage rates sat at 6.9% for a 30-year fixed mortgage at the time of writing.
Price Action: The SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>), which tracks the S&amp;P 500 Index, is down 0.6% to $601.51 on Wednesday.
The Vanguard Real Estate ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VNQ#NYSE">VNQ</a>) is down 1.5% to $90.65 on Wednesday.
The iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (BATS:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ITB#BATS">ITB</a>) is down 3.1% to $100.49 on Wednesday.
Read Next: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/bonds/25/01/42963973/housing-demand-falls-as-average-30-year-mortgage-rate-above-7">Housing Demand Falls As Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate Above 7%</a></li>
</ul>
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iShares Dow Jones US Homenstruction Index Fund

Inflation Rises In January, Housing Costs Up, Adding To Consumers' 2025 Concerns

Real estate investment trusts (REITs) <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/real-estate/reit">posted modest gains</a> to begin 2025. According to Nareit data, the FTSE Nareit All Equity REITs Index rose 1.0% in January. However, the broader stock market outperformed, with the Russell 1000 gaining 3.2% and the Dow Jones U.S. Total Stock Market rising 3.1%.
While <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/real-estate/reit">REITs stood strong</a>, investors are weighing the impact of interest rates, sector performance, and income potential when considering <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs">REIT-focused ETFs</a>. Here are three ETFs that have performed well in the past year:
iShares Residential and Multisector Real Estate ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/REZ#NYSE">REZ</a>)
This ETF&#8217;s price returns in the past year have been around 21.94%. The fund&#8217;s holding contains a few of the strongest names in the real estate industry. Welltower (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/WELL#NYSE">WELL</a>) occupies the biggest chunk of the ETF&#8217;s total assets. The expense ratio is 0.48%. The ETF offers significant exposure to Healthcare REITs, which was among the best-performing REITs in January, per Nareit.
Vanguard Real Estate ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VNQ#NYSE">VNQ</a>)
This fund&#8217;s price has grown 9.41% in the past year. It tracks the MSCI US Investable Market Real Estate 25/50 Index and carries an expense ratio of 0.13%. The ETF provides double-digit exposure to Data Center REITs, Healthcare REITs, Industrial REITs, Retail REITs, and Telecom REITs. Healthcare REITs and Industrial REITs were among the best-performing in January. 
This apart, the ETF is also exposed to Diversified REITs, Hotel &amp; Resorts REITs, Multi-Family Residential REITs, Office REITs, and others. Companies like Equinix (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EQIX#NASDAQ">EQIX</a>), American Tower Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMT#NYSE">AMT</a>), and Welltower adorn the portfolio.
Also Read: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/02/43541318/thornburgs-new-bond-etf-launches-a-peek-into-tpls-and-tmb">Thornburg&#8217;s New Bond ETF Launches: A Peek Into TPLS And TMB</a>
Invesco S&amp;P 500 Equal Weight Real Estate ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/RSPR#NYSE">RSPR</a>)
The ETF tracks the S&amp;P 500 Real Estate Index and its price has returned 14.45% in the past year. The expense ratio it carries is 0.4%. Stocks of Boston Properties Inc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BXP#NYSE">BXP</a>), American Tower and Vici Properties Inc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VICI#NYSE">VICI</a>) are among this fund&#8217;s holdings.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Dividend Appeal</h3>
Despite recent volatility, REITs continue to offer compelling dividend yields, making them attractive for income-focused investors. According to the Nareit report, as of Jan. 31, the FTSE Nareit All Equity REITs Index carried a dividend yield of 3.93%, while the Mortgage REITs Index yielded a hefty 12.05%. By comparison, the S&amp;P 500's dividend yield stood at just 1.19%.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Winners And Laggards</h3>
A closer look at January's sector performance reveals diverging trends within the REIT space. The best-performing property sectors were:
<ul>
<li>Industrial REITs: up 11.1%</li>
<li>Timberland REITs: up 8.1%</li>
<li>Health care REITs: up 4.2%</li>
</ul>
Mortgage REITs performed well in January, with the FTSE Nareit Mortgage REITs Index rising 5.4%. Home financing REITs also had a great January, posting an 8.4% gain, while commercial financing REITs edged up 0.2%.
Meanwhile, the weakest segments were:
<ul>
<li>Data center REITs: down 4.9%</li>
<li>Lodging/resorts REITs: down 2.7%</li>
<li>Specialty REITs: down 1.1%</li>
</ul>
ETF investors may find opportunities in targeted exposure to high-performing REIT segments while maintaining a diversified approach to balance risk and reward.
Read Next:<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/02/43534297/january-jobs-report-preview-speculators-bet-on-strong-payroll-surge-yet-economists-predict-a-different-picture"> </a>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/02/43534297/january-jobs-report-preview-speculators-bet-on-strong-payroll-surge-yet-economists-predict-a-different-picture">January Jobs Report Preview: Speculators Bet On Strong Payroll Surge, Yet Economists Predict A Different Picture</a></li>
</ul>
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EQIX

iShares FTSE NAREIT Residential PLUS Capped Index Fund

RSPR

VICI

WELL

REIT Winners And Losers: January's Trends Reshaping 2025

<a href="https://www.wsj.com/real-estate/commercial/the-u-s-government-has-a-landlord-and-trump-isnt-a-fan-872c469e" title="https://www.wsj.com/real-estate/commercial/the-u-s-government-has-a-landlord-and-trump-isnt-a-fan-872c469e">https://www.wsj.com/real-estate/commercial/the-u-s-government-has-a-landlord-and-trump-isnt-a-fan-872c469e</a>

iShares Trust Dow Jones US Real Estate Fund Index

The Wall Street Journal Reported The Trump Administration Is Considering Selling Two-thirds Of The Federal Government's Office Stock To The Private Sector

Markets saw a brief reprieve Friday as the Federal Reserve&#8217;s preferred inflation gauge came in below expectations, tempering concerns of mounting volatility after this <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/24/12/42615908/feds-preferred-inflation-gauge-falls-more-than-expected-markets-breathe-sigh-of-relief">week's hawkish policy pivot.</a>
The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index rose 2.4% year-over-year in November, missing the 2.5% forecast. On a monthly basis, the gauge slowed to 0.1%, down from 0.2% in October and below projections for steady growth.
Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, remained at 2.8% annually, slightly under the 2.9% estimate. The monthly core reading also decelerated to 0.1% from 0.3%, undershooting the 0.2% forecast.
Even with Friday's softer inflation print, traders seemed hesitant to enter a buy-everything mode after the sharp volatility seen earlier this week. 
The slightly tempered reaction suggests a degree of caution remains entrenched among investors as they assess the Fed's hawkish tone.
New York Fed President John Williams, interviewed by CNBC, reiterated that &#8220;monetary policy continues to be restrictive.&#8221; 
Williams described the recent inflation data as &#8220;encouraging news,&#8221; highlighting further disinflation progress. Yet, he indicated that &#8220;we&#8217;re still not to our 2% goal&#8221; and reaffirmed the Fed's commitment to achieving that target.
&#8220;I think the economy is a good place and most importantly for me, monetary policy is well positioned,&#8221; he added. 
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Stock Market Adds Some Gains, Yet &#8220;Don&#8217;t Fight The Fed&#8221; Remains The Mantra</h1>
U.S. equity markets saw modest gains following November&#8217;s softer-than-expected inflation data, as investor caution lingered after the Federal Reserve's hawkish policy shift earlier this week.
<ul>
<li>S&amp;P 500: The broader market index — as tracked by the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) — edged up from 5,800 to 5,840 by 9:50 a.m. in New York, down by 0.4% for the day.</li>
<li>Dow Jones: The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DIA#NYSE">DIA</a>) gained 0.4% after the release.</li>
<li>Nasdaq 100: Tech stocks fared better, with the Nasdaq QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>) adding 0.6% and recovering from steeper pre-market declines.</li>
<li>Real estate was the strongest-performing sector, with the Vanguard Real Estate ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VNQ#NYSE">VNQ</a>) rising by 1.1%. </li>
<li>Russell 2000: Small-cap stocks showed the largest rebound, with the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IWM#NYSE">IWM</a>) up by 0.1%. </li>
<li>The SPDR S&amp;P Regional Banking ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/KRE#NYSE">KRE</a>) witnessed a 0.8% rally. </li>
</ul>
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Treasury Yields Ease, Dollar Falls And Gold Rebounds</h1>
Bond markets saw some relief as Treasury yields fell following several days of sharp increases. 
The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond dropped five basis points to 4.70%, lifting the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) by 0.8%. This marks a partial recovery after the ETF plunged more than 3% over the previous two sessions.
Yields on shorter-dated two-year Treasury notes fell by seven basis points.
The U.S. dollar index — as tracked by the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>) — weakened by 0.3%.
Gold prices rose, as the precious metal benefited from lower Treasury yields and the declining dollar. The SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>) increased by 0.7%.
In the cryptocurrency market, the iShares Bitcoin Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IBIT#NYSE">IBIT</a>) trimmed premarket losses to 0.9%, as the largest cryptocurrency surged back above $95,000 levels. 
Read Next:
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/12/42606037/etf-market-hits-records-in-2024-inflows-reach-16-trillion-7-funds-top-ranking">ETF Market Sets Records In 2024 As Inflows Reach $1.6 Trillion: 7 Funds Leading Charge</a></li>
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Photo: Shutterstock

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Market Volatility Halts On Soft Inflation Data, Yet Traders Remain Wary Of Fighting The Fed: 10 ETFs Moving Friday

2025 promises to be a transformative year for the <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/real-estate">U.S. housing market</a>, offering fresh opportunities but also keeping everyone on their toes. 
Zillow Group Inc's (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ZG#NASDAQ">ZG</a>) (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/Z#NASDAQ">Z</a>) latest <a href="https://www.zillow.com/research/2025-housing-predictions-34620/">predictions</a> reveal shifting dynamics for buyers, sellers, and renters. Investors in the Vanguard Real Estate ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VNQ#NYSE">VNQ</a>), the Schwab US REIT ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SCHH#NYSE">SCHH</a>), and the Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLRE#NYSE">XLRE</a>) track these dynamics closely.
Read Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/short-ideas/24/12/42265808/top-3-real-estate-stocks-that-may-plunge-this-quarter">Top 3 Real Estate Stocks That May Plunge This Quarter</a>
Here are five trends to watch closely:
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">1. Breathing Room For Buyers Amid A Modest Market</h2>
Good news for buyers: more inventory is set to hit the market, giving you time to weigh options and negotiate harder. Zillow forecasts a modest 2.6% home value growth and an uptick in existing home sales to 4.3 million, signaling a gradual thaw in a market that's been tight for years.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">2. Mortgage Rate Whiplash</h2>
Mortgage rates will remain the wildcard. While Zillow expects rates to ease overall, their volatility could unsettle even seasoned buyers. Expect refinancing booms during dips and a roller-coaster affordability picture throughout the year.
Investors in the iShares MBS ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MBB#NYSE">MBB</a>) and the Vanguard Mortgage-Backed Securities ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VMBS#NYSE">VMBS</a>) may face heightened uncertainty.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">3. Buyers Markets Spread Westward</h2>
Currently concentrated in the Southeast, buyers markets are predicted to expand into the Southwest, giving buyers more power in negotiations. 
If mortgage rates fall significantly, however, sellers might regain the upper hand as competition heats up.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">4. The Rise of Smaller, Smarter Homes</h2>
Forget large mansions. Compact, purpose-driven homes are taking center stage. Listings describing properties as "cozy" have surged 35%, reflecting a cultural shift toward sustainable, affordable living. Urban condos are also stabilizing in value, according to Zillow, drawing buyers back to city life.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">5. Renter Perks Are On Borrowed Time</h2>
A surge in multifamily construction has made 2024 a renter-friendly year, with concessions like free rent and parking aplenty. But Zillow predicts these perks will wane by late 2025 as the rental market tightens. Renters with pets will remain a dominant force, pushing property managers to adopt more pet-friendly policies or risk losing tenants.
2025's housing market is set to be more active and buyer-friendly, but unpredictability looms large. From mortgage rate swings to shifting buyer trends, staying agile and informed will be key to making the most of this evolving landscape.
Read Next: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/real-estate/24/12/42287030/real-estate-veteran-pens-open-letter-to-donald-trump-resurrecting-housing-will-require-innovative-and-daring-solutions">Real Estate Veteran Pens Open Letter To Donald Trump: &#8216;Resurrecting Housing Will Require Innovative And Daring Solutions&#8217;</a></li>
</ul>
Image created using artificial intelligence via Midjourney.

5 Housing Market Trends For 2025: What Zillow's Forecast Means For You

Wall Street is on track for its third consecutive day of losses as investors grow cautious about risky assets, awaiting more clarity on U.S. fiscal and monetary policies and scrutinizing the latest <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/earnings">batch of corporate earnings.</a>
Both equities and commodities took a hit on Wednesday, while the U.S. dollar gained strength, attracting investor flows as traders moved to safer cash positions.
The U.S. dollar index, as tracked by the the&nbsp;Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>), rose 0.5%, reaching levels last seen in late July. 
At midday in New York, the S&amp;P 500 was down 0.7%, attempting to hold support around the 5,800-point level. The Dow Jones also dropped 0.7%, and tech stocks, along with small caps, fared worse, sliding by 0.9%.
On the data front, mortgage applications declined for the fourth straight week, reflecting continued pressure <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/24/10/41488744/mortgage-applications-fall-for-fourth-straight-week-as-high-rates-squeeze-homebuy">from elevated borrowing costs.</a>
Existing home sales fell by 1% in September to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 3.84 million, the lowest level since October 2010. This follows an upwardly revised 3.88 million in August and missed forecasts of 3.9 million.
Despite weak housing data, real estate stocks showed surprising resilience. The Vanguard Real Estate ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VNQ#NYSE">VNQ</a>) and the SPDR Homebuilders ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XHB#NYSE">XHB</a>) moved higher after two straight sessions of losses.
Gold prices, as tracked by the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>), fell more than 1%, pulling mining stocks down with it. Silver plummeted over 3%, retreating from 12-year highs reached on Tuesday.
Oil prices slipped by 1%, while Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) tumbled 2%. 
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Wednesday&#8217;s Performance In Major U.S. Indices, ETFs</h1>
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Major Indices</td>
<td>Price</td>
<td>1-day %chg</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>S&amp;P 500</td>
<td>5,815.02</td>
<td>-0.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Dow Jones</td>
<td>42,625.59</td>
<td>-0.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Russell 2000</td>
<td>2,213.10</td>
<td>-0.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nasdaq 100</td>
<td>20,196.24</td>
<td>-0.9%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Updated 12:00 p.m. ET </figcaption></figure>
According to <a href="https://bzresearch.myclickfunnels.com/benzinga-pro-content-webinar-registration/?utm_source=BZprocontent102224&amp;t=be2bearmibe3na1">Benzinga Pro</a> data:
<ul>
<li>The&nbsp;SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) fell 0.6% to $579.72.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DIA#NYSE">DIA</a>)&nbsp;inched 0.7% lower to $426.41.</li>
<li>The tech-heavy Invesco QQQ Trust Series (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>) fell 1% to $491.16.</li>
<li>The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IWM#NYSE">IWM</a>) fell 0.7% $219.80.</li>
<li>The Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLRE#NYSE">XLRE</a>) outperformed, up 0.6%. The Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLY#NYSE">XLY</a>) lagged, down 1%.</li>
</ul>
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Wednesday&#8217;s Stock Movers</h1>
<ul>
<li>Boeing Co. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BA#NYSE">BA</a>) fell 2.4% after reporting a worse-than-expected losses<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/24/10/41486950/boeing-q3-earnings-revenue-and-profit-decline-cultural-challenges-ceo-ortberg-vows-transformation"> last quarter</a>.</li>
</ul>
Other stocks reacting to earnings included:
<ul>
<li>Texas Instruments Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TXN#NASDAQ">TXN</a>), up 3.5%.</li>
<li>Baker Hughes Co. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BKR#NASDAQ">BKR</a>), up 3.9%.</li>
<li>Seagate Technology Holdings PLC (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/STX#NASDAQ">STX</a>), down over 7%.</li>
<li>Packaging Corporation of America (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PKG#NYSE">PKG</a>), up over 6%.</li>
<li>Manhattan Associates Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MANH#NASDAQ">MANH</a>), down over 7%.</li>
<li>East West Bancorp. Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EWBC#NASDAQ">EWBC</a>), up over 7%.</li>
<li>Enphase Energy Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ENPH#NASDAQ">ENPH</a>), down over 13%.</li>
<li>Coca-Cola Co. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/KO#NYSE">KO</a>), down 2.2%. </li>
<li>Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TMO#NYSE">TMO</a>), down 2.9%.</li>
<li>NextEra Energy Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NEE#NYSE">NEE</a>), down 0.1%. </li>
<li>AT&amp;T Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/T#NYSE">T</a>), up 3.8%. </li>
<li>Boston Scientific Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BSX#NYSE">BSX</a>), down 3.7%. </li>
<li>CME Group Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CME#NASDAQ">CME</a>), down 0.9%. </li>
<li>GE Vernova Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GEV#NYSE">GEV</a>), down 1.6%. </li>
<li>Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/HLT#NYSE">HLT</a>), down 2.6%. </li>
<li>Vertiv Holdings LLC (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VRT#NYSE">VRT</a>), down 2.8%. </li>
<li>Old Dominion Freight Line Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ODFL#NASDAQ">ODFL</a>), down 4.8%. </li>
</ul>
Large-cap companies reporting earnings after the close include Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>), T-Mobile US Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TMUS#NASDAQ">TMUS</a>), International Business Machines Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IBM#NYSE">IBM</a>), ServiceNow Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NOW#NYSE">NOW</a>), Lam Research Corp. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/LRCX#NASDAQ">LRCX</a>), Newmont Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NEM#NYSE">NEM</a>), United Rentals Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/URI#NYSE">URI</a>), Las Vegas Sands Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/LVS#NYSE">LVS</a>), Raymond James Financial Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/RJF#NYSE">RJF</a>). 
Read Now:
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/bonds/24/10/41455678/gold-on-track-for-best-year-since-1979-veteran-investor-says-sell-bonds-buy-gold">Gold On Track For Best Year Since 1979: Veteran Investor Says &#8216;Sell Bonds, Buy Gold&#8217;</a></li>
</ul>

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$BTC

ENPH

EWBC

LRCX

MANH

ODFL

TMUS

TSLA

Select Sector SPDR-Consumer Discretionary

Wall Street Slumps For Third Straight Day As Investor Sentiment Fades, Dollar Strength Resumes, Boeing Disappoints: What's Driving Markets Wednesday?

Boxer Floyd Mayweather isn't just collecting championship belts anymore — <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/real-estate">now he's after buildings</a>.
What Happened: According to <a href="https://therealdeal.com/new-york/2024/10/16/floyd-mayweather-in-contract-on-402m-black-spruce-multifamily-portfolio/">The Real Deal</a>, the undefeated champ — known for the moniker &#8220;Money&#8221; — is set to drop a cool $402 million for a 1,000-unit affordable housing portfolio, spread across more than 60 buildings. 
On the sell side is Josh Gotlib of Black Spruce Management.
A slice of the deal already closed on Wednesday, with the rest expected to close in the fourth quarter or early 2025.
See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/real-estate/24/10/41272556/renters-say-kamala-harris-beats-trump-on-housing-affordability-48-choose-the-vice-president">Renters Say Kamala Harris Beats Trump On Housing Affordability, 48% Choose The Vice President</a>
Why It Matters: There is a significant shortage of affordable housing in New York City. The city has long struggled with it, and the problem has worsened in recent years due to several factors, per the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/08/nyregion/apartment-vacancy-rate-housing-crisis.html">New York Times</a> citing city data.
Mayweather&#8217;s newly acquired portfolio is concentrated in Upper Manhattan and expected to stay affordable if the retired fighter intends to take advantage of tax breaks.
<ol>
<li></li>
</ol>
Some of the Black Spruce buildings sold to Mayweather have the benefit of an Article XI tax exemption. That means the properties enjoy up to 40 years of tax breaks — as long as they're at least two-thirds affordable. 
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">ETFs To Watch</h1>
Real estate exchange-traded funds (ETFs) closed in the green Wednesday afternoon:
iShares U.S. Real Estate ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IYR#NYSE">IYR</a>) was up 1.02% at $101.96
The Vanguard Real Estate ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VNQ#NYSE">VNQ</a>), 0.12% at $97.64. 
The Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLRE#NYSE">XLRE</a>), up 1% at $44.72
Keep Reading:
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/10/41312782/trumps-economic-policies-expected-to-drive-inflation-and-deficits-higher-than-harris-economists-say" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Who's Better For Economy? Not Trump. Economists Say Ex-President's Policies Will Drive Inflation, Deficits</a></li>
</ul>
Photo: Shutterstock

Sports

'Money' Floyd Mayweather To Spend $402M On Affordable NYC Apartment Portfolio

RE/MAX Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/RMAX#NYSE">RMAX</a>) released its National Housing Report for September 2024, which showed home sales slowed 13.3% from August and the median sales price <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/pressreleases/24/10/n41330285/remax-national-housing-report-for-september-2024">dropped 1.4% from August to $429,000.&nbsp;</a>
The Details: RE/MAX explained the September home sales dip was a seasonal norm and pointed to prior decreases of 13.8% and 9.7% from August to September in 2023 and 2022, respectively. However, sales were 3.1% below September 2023 <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/24/10/41249628/mortgage-rates-make-dramatic-u-turn-freezing-homebuyers-applications-fall-5-as-ma">levels while the median home price</a> was 4.6% higher than in September 2023.
&#8220;While we&#8217;re seeing a slight cooling in sales, it&#8217;s encouraging to note that home inventory has been steadily increasing, giving buyers more options in the market,&#8221; said RE/MAX President Amy Lessinger.&nbsp;
&#8220;The consistency in sales prices and the fact that buyers are still paying 99% of asking price demonstrates the resiliency in today&#8217;s housing market. Lower rates could generate some increased activity as we end 2024 and start 2025,&#8221; Lessinger added.&nbsp;
Read Next: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/10/41321699/oil-prices-drop-after-netanyahu-says-israel-will-attack-military-not-oil-or-nuclear-targets-in-iran">Oil Prices Drop After Netanyahu Says Israel Will Attack Military, Not Oil Or Nuclear Targets In Iran</a>
Hot Markets: The markets with the biggest year-over-year increase in median sales price were Hartford, Connecticut, up 11.9%; Cleveland, Ohio, up 9.1% and Providence, Rhode Island, up 8.9%. New listings were up 35.9% year-over-year in Bozeman, Montana; up 32.8% in Phoenix, Arizona and Las Vegas, Nevada, saw the number of new listings rise 27.5%.
Cooling Markets: The markets with the biggest year-over-year decrease in median sales price were Coeur d&#8217;Alene, Idaho, down 4.7%; San Antonio, Texas, down 3.1% and Tampa, Florida, down 2.6%. Tampa also saw the number of <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/real-estate/24/10/41332284/floridas-housing-market-faces-major-setback-as-high-insurance-costs-and-storm-concerns-drive-buyers">new listings</a> fall 12.3% from September 2023 and new listings in San Antonio decreased 9.1%.
Real Estate ETFs: Though inventory is increasing, the U.S. housing market remains tight with buyers paying 99% of the asking price in September. Another way to invest in the housing market is through ETFs which track the U.S. real estate market, usually through Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs). 
The Vanguard Real Estate ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VNQ#NYSE">VNQ</a>) has gained 20% over the past six months and the Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLRE#NYSE">XLRE</a>) is up nearly 22% since April 2024. 
RMAX, VNQ, XLRE Price Action: According to <a href="https://pro.benzinga.com/?gspk=YWRhbWVja2VydDUzMzY&amp;gsxid=zBMR4PKmcgBw">Benzinga Pro</a>, RE/MAX shares are up 3.03% at $12.23, Vanguard Real Estate shares are up 1.92% at $97.09 and Real Estate Select Sector SPDR shares are up 1.81% at $44.52 at the time of publication Tuesday.
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Photo: Shutterstock&nbsp;

RMAX

September Sales Chill, Prices Cool — But What Markets Are Hot?

American homeowners and prospective buyers had been biding their time, waiting for a decisive move from the Federal Reserve to <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/money/mortgages">reignite the mortgage market. </a>
That moment came on Sept. 18, when the Fed&#8217;s large and unexpected 50-basis-point rate cut—bringing the target range to 4.75%-5%—opened the floodgates for mortgage refinancing and home purchases.
According to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), applications jumped 11% in the week ending Sept. 20, building on the previous week's 14.2% surge and pushing activity to its highest level since June 2022.
The spike in demand has closely followed the broader trend in benchmark mortgage rates. The average rate on a 30-year fixed — often the go-to option for American homebuyers — fell to a <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/interest-rates">two-year low of 6.13%.</a>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Refinancing Boom: Time To Seize Mortgage Moment</h3>
The surge of activity was particularly elevated in refinancing, which had been dormant amid years of high borrowing costs. 
Refinancing applications soared by 20% last week, as homeowners moved quickly to lock in lower rates and cut their monthly mortgage payments. 
The refinance application index has rallied to levels last seen in late March 2022. Lower mortgage rates can directly translate into lower monthly payments for millions of Americans, making refinancing an appealing option. For example, a homeowner with a $300,000 loan at a 7% rate could save around $300 per month if they refinance into a 6% loan. 
Historically, periods of falling interest rates have coincided with stronger home-buying activity, and this time appears to be no different.
"Mortgage rates likely had this cut — and this expected rate path — priced in, and lower mortgage rates, now close to 6%, have resulted in much more refinance and some additional purchase activity in recent weeks," said Mike Fratantoni, MBA&#8217;s senior vice president and chief economist.
&#8220;If mortgage rates remain near these levels, it will support a stronger-than-typical fall housing market, and next spring could see a real rebound in activity," he added. 
The Vanguard Real Estate ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VNQ#NYSE">VNQ</a>), which tracks the broader real estate sector, was flat in premarket trading following the news. Similarly, the iShares Residential and Multisector Real Estate ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/REZ#NYSE">REZ</a>), which has more direct exposure to the housing market, held steady. 
Meanwhile, the VanEck Mortgage REIT Income ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MORT#NYSE">MORT</a>) saw a slight uptick of 0.5%. 
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Image: Shutterstock

MORT

Mortgage Demand Soars As Fed Interest Rate Cut Fuels Housing Market Revival: 'Next Spring Could See A Real Rebound'

The Federal Reserve&#8217;s recent 50 basis point rate cut marks a notable shift in monetary policy, with significant implications for both the U.S. economy <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/emerging-markets">and global markets</a>. 
Fund managers and strategists are weighing in on what this means for investors and what to expect next.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">KraneShares: Fed's Rate Cut Signals A Cycle</h2>
Brendan Ahern, CIO of KraneShares, believes the Fed's 50 bps rate cut is the beginning of a larger easing cycle.
According to Ahern, &#8220;Another 50 basis point reduction is expected later this year, with an additional 100 basis points projected for 2025.&#8221; 
While some fear the possibility of a mild recession, Ahern points out that the U.S. economy is still displaying resilience. "Unemployment remains low, inflation is easing, consumer spending is holding strong, and corporate profits are generally stable," he notes, suggesting the potential for a "soft landing" instead of a hard downturn.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Russell Investments: Softer Stance Could Boost Markets</h2>
Paul Eitelman, chief investment strategist at Russell Investments, shares a more tempered yet optimistic view, noting that the Fed&#8217;s focus is shifting from aggressive inflation control to stabilizing economic growth.
&#8220;This marked the start of a long-awaited easing cycle,&#8221; he said, adding that the Fed is aiming to prevent major damage to the labor market.
Eitelman expects the Fed to maintain a steady pace of cuts—25 bps at each meeting through 2025—to balance risks. Should this strategy succeed, sectors like real estate and small caps could benefit from lower rates and a stabilizing economy.
The Vanguard Real Estate ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VNQ#NYSE">VNQ</a>) and the SPDR Real Estate Select Sector ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLRE#NYSE">XLRE</a>) are two of the most popular real estate equity tracking ETFs in the U.S. 
On the small-cap front, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IWM#NYSE">IWM</a>) and the iShares Russell 2000 Growth ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IWO#NYSE">IWO</a>) are two popular ETFs tracking the Russell 2000 Index &#8211; a popular benchmark for small-cap equity in the U.S. The iShares Core S&amp;P Small-Cap ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IJR#NYSE">IJR</a>) and the Vanguard Small Cap ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VB#NYSE">VB</a>) are two other popular small-cap equity-tracking ETFs.
Don't miss out on this unparalleled opportunity:
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/events/small-cap/global-small-cap-conference-2024/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Register now to secure your spot at Benzinga's Largest SmallCap Conference ever in Chicago!</a></li>
</ul>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">WisdomTree&#8217;s Senior Economist: &#8220;I Am Surprised"</h2>
WisdomTree senior economist Professor Jeremy Siegel offered a candid take, expressing surprise at the Fed's bold move. &#8220;I&#8217;ll have to say, I am surprised. I was saying of course I wanted 50, you know I even wanted more, but I didn&#8217;t think he was going to do it.&#8221;
Siegel&#8217;s analysis also highlights the Fed's response to catching up with inflation control. "They realize that they were a bit behind the curve and now they are catching up," he said.
Siegel believes the rate cuts lower the probability of a recession, helping sustain economic strength.
Read Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/24/09/40995794/key-stock-market-dates-predicting-major-swings-revealed-ahead-of-2024-election-according-to-bank">Key Stock Market Dates Predicting Major Swings Revealed Ahead Of 2024 Election, According To Bank Of America</a>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Emerging Markets: A Beneficiary Of Lower Rates?</h2>
KraneShares' Ahern also highlights the potential boost for emerging markets. A weaker U.S. dollar resulting from lower rates could &#8220;strengthen emerging market currencies,&#8221; and increased capital inflows may follow. Investors in the iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IEMG#NYSE">IEMG</a>) and the Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VWO#NYSE">VWO</a>) are well-positioned to benefit from the strengthening of emerging market equities.
Chinese assets, in particular, are attracting global investors as they trade at low valuations. Investors in the iShares MSCI China ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MCHI#NYSE">MCHI</a>) and the KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/KWEB#NYSE">KWEB</a>) are positioned to benefit from any increase in fund flows towards Chinese equities.
Ahern advises closely watching both U.S. policy shifts and China's economic recovery for potential opportunities in this space.
While the Fed's aggressive 50 bps cut has caught many by surprise, fund managers and strategists agree it may provide much-needed relief to financial markets, with growth sectors and emerging markets standing to benefit from the shift.
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Image created using artificial intelligence via Midjourney.

Asia

Emerging Markets

Small Cap Analysis

Emerging Market ETFs

IEMG

KWEB

MCHI

Fed 'Catching Up' With 50-Point Rate Cut: Fund Managers Expect Gains In Emerging Markets, Small Caps

The Federal Reserve is set to sprinkle some interest rate fairy dust, and small-cap sectors are lining up to see who'll soar or stumble. While the Russell 2000 is stealing the spotlight with its 5% surge ahead of the rate cut, not all small caps will feel the same love from <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/small-cap-analysis">lower borrowing costs</a>. 
So, what sectors should investors be eyeing, and where do the best ETFs come into play?
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Financials: Money Talks, But Who's Listening?</h2>
Small-cap financials, often living and breathing on rate-sensitive margins, are gearing up for a potential win. 
As borrowing costs fall, these lenders, insurers, and regional banks get a shot in the arm. For those looking to ride the wave, the iShares Russell 2000 Financials ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IWFN#NYSE">IWFN</a>) offers concentrated exposure to this potentially booming sector.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Real Estate: Open House For Gains?</h2>
Real estate stocks also stand to benefit as mortgage rates and financing costs drop. With rate cuts loosening the borrowing purse strings, real estate could experience a boost in demand and valuation. 
Investors eyeing the space might find the Vanguard Real Estate ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VNQ#NYSE">VNQ</a>) or iShares U.S. Real Estate ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IYR#NYSE">IYR</a>) perfect for capturing the sector's expected rise.
Don&#8217;t miss out on this unparalleled opportunity:
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/events/small-cap/global-small-cap-conference-2024/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Register now to secure your spot at Benzinga&#8217;s Largest SmallCap Conference ever in Chicago!</a></li>
</ul>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Consumer Discretionary: Retail Therapy Ahead?</h2>
Lower interest rates also often mean more cash for consumers to splurge on non-essentials, giving a lift to small-cap retail, travel, and leisure names.
The SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Consumer Discretionary ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PSCD#NYSE">PSCD</a>) is one way to jump on this sector's shopping spree.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Energy: A Wildcard In The Small-Cap Mix</h2>
Energy stocks are notorious for being tied to oil prices, but lower rates can still offer some breathing room for these debt-heavy companies. 
For those ready to hedge their bets, the SPDR S&amp;P Oil &amp; Gas Exploration &amp; Production ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XOP#NYSE">XOP</a>) could be the small-cap energy ETF to watch.
Read Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/09/40749609/this-small-cap-top-pick-is-positioned-for-strong-gains-jpmorgan-sees-over-50-upside">This Small Cap &#8216;Top Pick&#8217; Is Positioned For Strong Gains, JPMorgan Sees Over 50% Upside</a>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Technology, Healthcare: Resilient But&#8230; Rate-Resistant?</h2>
While technology and healthcare sectors aren't as rate-sensitive as financials or real estate, they remain staples in small-cap ETFs like the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IWM#NYSE">IWM</a>) and Vanguard Small-Cap ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VB#NYSE">VB</a>). 
Both funds are solid all-around plays for investors who want diversified exposure to the small-cap space, especially as uncertainty lingers.
As the Fed moves its rate-cutting wand, small-cap sectors will each feel the ripples differently. 
Whether you're banking on financials, betting on real estate, or shopping for consumer discretionary, there's a sector—and ETF—for every investor's playbook.
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Don&#8217;t miss the opportunity to dominate in a volatile market at the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/events/small-cap/global-small-cap-conference-2024/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Benzinga SmallCAP Conference on Oct. 9-10, 2024</a>,&nbsp;at the Chicago Marriott Downtown Magnificent Mile.
Get exclusive access to CEO presentations, 1:1 meetings with investors, and valuable insights from top financial experts. Whether you&#8217;re a trader, entrepreneur, or investor, this event offers unparalleled opportunities to grow your portfolio and network with industry leaders.
<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/events/small-cap/global-small-cap-conference-2024/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Secure your spot and get your tickets today!</a>
Image created using artificial intelligence via Midjourney.

Small Cap

IWFN

PSCD

Small-Cap Sectors Brace For Fed Rate Cut: Financials, Real Estate ETFs Offer Compelling Plays For Investors

Investors are increasingly eyeing the real estate sector with optimism as the Federal Reserve edges closer to initiating its <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/interest-rates">much-anticipated rate-cut cycle.</a>
Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) have emerged as a standout performer in August, leading the market in gains while also becoming a magnet for investor inflows.
Five out of the 64 U.S.-listed real estate exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have collectively pulled in a robust $2.2 billion in net inflows over the past month. 
This influx of capital represents more than half of the total inflows that these ETFs have attracted over the entire past year, as market participants increasingly bet on the real estate sector to benefit from lower borrowing costs and more favorable financial conditions ahead of the potential Fed rate cut in September. 
Fed Chair Jerome Powell, in his remarks at the Jackson Hole Symposium, signaled that the Federal Reserve might consider lowering interest rates soon due to a noticeable cooling in the labor market. 
"The time has come for policy to adjust," he said, adding that &#8220;the cooling in labor market conditions is unmistakable.&#8221;
The Fed chair also expressed increased confidence that the economy is on a sustainable path toward the 2% inflation target. 
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">5 Real Estate ETFs Attract Inflows As Investors Jump On Rate-Cut Winners</h3>
The iShares U.S. Real Estate ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IYR#NYSE">IYR</a>) led the inflows, attracting $805.6 million in net investments over the past month—a sum that represents two-thirds of the fund's total inflows for the past year. 
The Vanguard Real Estate ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VNQ#NYSE">VNQ</a>) –&nbsp;the largest real estate ETF with $37 billion in assets under management – saw a strong recovery in August, pulling in $613.6 million and nearly offsetting its earlier outflows, bringing its yearly inflows close to breakeven. 
The Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLRE#NYSE">XLRE</a>) also experienced robust activity, with $498.6 million in net inflows over the last month. 
Other notable performers included the SPDR DJ Wilshire REIT ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/RWR#NYSE">RWR</a>) and the iShares Residential and Multisector Real Estate ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/REZ#NYSE">REZ</a>), which attracted $146.7 million and $136.8 million, respectively, during August.
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>ETF</th>
<th>1-Month Fund Flows ($mln)</th>
<th>1-Year Fund Flows ($mln)</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>iShares U.S. Real Estate ETF </td>
<td>805.6</td>
<td>1,193</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Vanguard Real Estate ETF</td>
<td>613.6</td>
<td>-2.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund </td>
<td>498.6</td>
<td>2,063</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>SPDR DJ Wilshire REIT ETF </td>
<td>146.7</td>
<td>132.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>iShares Residential and Multisector Real Estate ETF</td>
<td>136.8</td>
<td>95.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Total</td>
<td>2,201.3</td>
<td>3,481.9</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Data: TradingView, as of Aug. 27, 2024</figcaption></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Why Real Estate Sector Benefits From Interest Rate Cuts</h3>
Lower household borrowing costs and improved refinancing opportunities, fueled by expectations of declining interest rates, can significantly boost the profitability of real estate companies.
Real estate stocks, as represented by the VNQ ETF, have climbed 35% since their October 2023 lows, with a striking 14% gain in just the last two months, far outpacing the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>)&#8217;s modest 3% rise over the same period. 
This robust outperformance in real estate stocks aligns closely with growing market expectations for impending interest rate cuts.
As illustrated in the chart below, the largest real estate ETF has moved inversely to the 2-year Treasury yield, a crucial indicator of market expectations for short-term interest rates.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Chart: Declining 2-Year Yields Fuel Rally In Real Estate Stocks</h3>
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="508" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/27121530/image-270-1024x508.png" alt="" class="wp-image-516548" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/27121530/image-270-1024x508.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/27121530/image-270-300x149.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/27121530/image-270-768x381.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/27121530/image-270-1536x762.png 1536w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/27121530/image-270.png 1920w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
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Image created using artificial intelligence via Midjourney.

Investors Funnel $2.2B Into These 5 Real Estate ETFs In Anticipation Of Fed Rate Cuts

Jerome Powell's interest rate remarks Friday ignited a rally in stocks, bonds, and commodities, while the U.S. dollar plunged as traders solidified their bets on <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/interest-rates">rate cuts</a>.
Financial markets responded positively to Fed chair Powell&#8217;s remarks at the Jackson Hole symposium, where he said the &#8216;&#8221;time has come <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs/sector-etfs/24/08/40529209/jerome-powell-time-has-come-for-interest-rate-cuts-cooling-in-labor-market-unmistakable">for policy to adjust.&#8221;</a>
The Fed chair said he is more confident the economy is on a sustainable path back to the 2% inflation target, allowing the Fed to finally shift its focus to labor market conditions.
&#8220;We do not seek or welcome further cooling in labor market conditions,&#8221; he said, adding the Fed has &#8220;ample room to respond&#8221; by adjusting its policy should further weakening in labor market conditions occur.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">7 Key ETFs React To Powell&#8217;s Jackson Hole Speech</h3>
A greenback gauge, as tracked by the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>), tumbled by 0.7% at 11 a.m. ET., extending its weekly decline to 1.4% — the worst performance it has recorded this year.
Driven by expectations of lower interest rates and a weakening dollar, gold prices surged to a new all-time high of $2,530 per ounce following the speech, with the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>) climbing by 1.1%. 
Wall Street initially rallied before paring back some gains as traders assess the economic outlook.
Small caps, instead, substantially outperformed large-cap indices. The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IWM#NYSE">IWM</a>) soared 2.9%, on track for its strongest session since July 16. 
Within sectors, real estate stocks rallied, with the Vanguard Real Estate ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VNQ#NYSE">VNQ</a>) up 1.8%, hitting the highest levels since September 2022. 
Interest-rate sensitive industries saw significant gains following Powell&#8217;s remarks, with homebuilders, regional banks and miners leading the market.
The SPDR S&amp;P Regional Banking ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/KRE#NYSE">KRE</a>) jumped 4.6%, while the iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ITB#NYSE">ITB</a>) climbed 3.2%, and the SPDR S&amp;P Metals &amp; Mining ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XME#NYSE">XME</a>) advanced 1.7%.
Don't miss the opportunity to dominate in a volatile market at the <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/events/small-cap/global-small-cap-conference-2024/">Benzinga SmallCAP Conference </a>Oct. 9-10 at the Chicago Marriott Downtown Magnificent Mile. 
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Jerome Powell and Wall Street illustration. Photo: Federalreserve/Flickr Photo: Bylolo/Unsplash

Commodities

Powell's Rate Cut Signal Triggers Small-Cap Rally, Gold Makes Record Highs, Dollar Tumbles: 7 ETFs On The Move

The Bank of Japan&#8217;s sudden U-turn on policy has ignited strong reactions on Wall Street this week, with investors now eyeing significant interest rate cuts <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/interest-rates">from the Federal Reserve.</a>
Bank of America&#8217;s chief investment strategist, Michael Hartnett, believes that Wall Street has effectively forced the Bank of Japan into the decision to halt rate hikes during periods of market turmoil.
In his latest &#8220;Flow Show&#8221; report, Hartnett analyzed the implications of one of the most volatile weeks in global markets since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. 
&#8220;Wall Street has now (painfully) stopped BoJ hikes&#8230; its next goal appears to be bossing the Fed into big rate cuts,&#8221; Hartnett wrote.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Big Cuts Are Needed To Avoid Hard Landing</h3>
Hartnett indicated that the elevated interest rates are beginning to take a toll on small businesses. He suggested that significant rate cuts are necessary to avoid a hard landing for the economy. 
Currently, the U.S. prime rate – which is the lowest interest rates at which small businesses can borrow – stands at 6.5% in real terms, the highest level this century, making borrowing costs particularly burdensome for the real economy.
Higher-for-longer real rates are gradually and decisively hurting the U.S. consumer and labor market, according to Hartnett. 
He stressed that global rate cuts are no longer a question of &#8220;if&#8221; or &#8220;when,&#8221; but rather a matter of whether the cuts will be effective. 
&#8220;Big cuts are needed to work,&#8221; he said.
Also Read: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/24/08/40278776/as-nvidia-leads-magnificent-7-volatility-analyst-says-these-mega-caps-are-poised-to-outperform-s">As Nvidia Leads Magnificent 7 Volatility, Analyst Says These Mega-Caps Are Poised To Outperform Small-Caps — But There&#8217;s A Catch</a>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Soft Landing Contingent On Reactions To Lower Interest Rates</h3>
A soft landing for the economy, Hartnett suggested, would depend on whether lower interest rates in the second half of the year can reinvigorate consumer spending and business activity. 
He pointed to key indicators to monitor, such as housing market data and small business sentiment.
According to the analyst, a recovery in mortgage purchases, refinancing activity, and small business sentiment driven by lower interest rates would be a positive indicator.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Sell AI Stocks, Buy Laggards After The First Cut</h3>
Hartnett maintained his stance of &#8220;sell the first cut,&#8221; anticipating that leadership in AI and AI-derivative plays may struggle in the second half until earnings-per-share gains become more visible. 
He recommended that investors &#8220;buy assets strangled by 5% yields&#8221; that could benefit from a decrease in yields to 3-4%.
These assets include government bonds, REITs, small-cap stocks, and distressed emerging markets like Brazil, which could benefit from a weaker dollar. 
Exchange traded funds investing in these assets include the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>), the Vanguard Real Estate ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VNQ#NYSE">VNQ</a>), the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IWM#NYSE">IWM</a>) and the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EWZ#NYSE">EWZ</a>)
He also highlighted potential opportunities in housing markets in countries like the UK, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and Sweden, where floating mortgage rates could lead to a quicker transmission of lower rates into increased consumer confidence. 
Finally, Hartnett suggested that global retail stocks could present the best buying opportunity in the event of a &#8220;hard landing&#8221; and a negative payroll print in the coming months, as these stocks, much like REITs, have already priced in a recession.
Read now: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/24/08/40278776/as-nvidia-leads-magnificent-7-volatility-analyst-says-these-mega-caps-are-poised-to-outperform-s">As Nvidia Leads Magnificent 7 Volatility, Analyst Says These Mega-Caps Are Poised To Outperform Small-Caps — But There&#8217;s A Catch</a></li>
</ul>
Image created using artificial intelligence via Midjourney.

Bonds

Global

Wall Street Shifts To 'Bossing The Fed Into Big Rate Cuts' After Bank Of Japan's Policy U-Turn, Analyst Says

Expectations that the Federal Reserve will soon begin cutting interest rates have driven mortgage rates to their lowest levels in over a year Wednesday, positively impacting both new mortgage applications and <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/money/mortgages">refinancing of existing loans.</a>
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages — with conforming loan balances of $766,550 or less — fell significantly by 27 basis points to 6.55% for the week ending Aug. 2, marking the lowest rate since early May 2023
The decrease of 27 basis points from the rate of 6.82% on July 26 represents the largest weekly drop since July 2022 and reflects sizable reductions in Treasury yields.
The 30-year Treasury yield, a key benchmark for mortgage costs, dropped 34 basis points during the week ending Aug. 2, reaching approximately 4.2%. 
&#8220;Mortgage rates decreased across the board last week&#8230;following dovish communication from the Federal Reserve and a weak jobs report, which added to increased concerns of an economy slowing more rapidly than expected,&#8221; said Joel Kan, the Mortgage Bankers Association&#8217;s vice president and deputy chief economist.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Chart: 30-Year Mortgage Rates Drop To Levels Last Seen In May 2023</h3>
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="576" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/07085307/image-1-15-1024x576.png" alt="" class="wp-image-481621" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/07085307/image-1-15-1024x576.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/07085307/image-1-15-300x169.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/07085307/image-1-15-768x432.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/07085307/image-1-15-1536x864.png 1536w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/07085307/image-1-15.png 1920w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Demand For Mortgages Jumps, Driven By Lower Interest Rates</h3>
Mortgage applications soared by 6.9% during the week ending Aug. 2, the sharpest increase in nearly two months and fully erasing the cumulative declines in applications from the two prior weeks. 
Applications for a loan to refinance a mortgage, which are more sensitive to weekly changes in interest rates, soared by nearly 16%.&nbsp;The MBA Mortgage Refinance index rose to the highest level in two years. 
Although the Federal Reserve kept the federal funds target unchanged at its July meeting, it hinted at a possible rate cut in September. Market speculation around a Fed rate cut sharply increased as a result of a weaker-than-expected July jobs report.
Commenting on the data, MBA chief economist Mike Fratantoni said: &#8220;The weakness in this report including the slower rate of wage growth and the higher unemployment rate certainly support such a cut, but the next inflation report needs to confirm that price growth is also slowing.
"The market is moving ahead of the Fed, bringing down longer-term rates including those for mortgages, which should lead to both more home purchases and a pickup in refinance activity," he said. 
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Market Reactions</h3>
Shares of real estate companies surged in premarket trading on Wednesday, with the Vanguard Real Estate ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VNQ#NYSE">VNQ</a>) rising by 0.8%, following a 2% gain on Tuesday. The VNQ ETF is on course to reach levels not seen since January 2023.
Top premarket gainers were Howard Hughes Holding (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/HHH#NYSE">HHH</a>), up 14.5%, Peakstone Realty Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PKST#NYSE">PKST</a>), up 5.4%, Opendoor Technologies Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/OPEN#NYSE">OPEN</a>), up 4.6% and Hudson Pacific Properties Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/HPP#NYSE">HPP</a>), up 4.4%.
Mortgage-linked stocks as tracked by the iShares Residential and Multisector Real Estate ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/REZ#NYSE">REZ</a>) are up over 2.5% in the premarket, after rallying 2.7% a day earlier. American Healthcare REIT, Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AHR#NYSE">AHR</a>) and Community Healthcare Trust Incorporated (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CHCT#NYSE">CHCT</a>) led gains, up 9.4% and 2.9%, respectively. 
Read now: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/24/08/40172320/market-bets-on-feds-next-move-is-50-basis-point-cut-in-september-a-done-deal">Market Bets On Fed&#8217;s Next Move: Is 50-Basis-Point Cut In September A Done Deal?</a></li>
</ul>
Photo via Shutterstock.

CHCT

OPEN

PKST

Mortgage Rates Fall To 15-Month Lows, Boost Homebuyer Demand As Federal Reserve Hints At Rate Cuts

The <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/covid-19">COVID-19 pandemic</a> accelerated a trend of workers preferring remote work to in-person office attendance. 
Meanwhile, <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/commercial-real-estate">commercial real estate</a> across the U.S. has suffered as companies do not value expansive office spaces as they did before.
The Data: A <a href="https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1817971321277763942">post</a> on X relayed data from Arbor Data Science.
<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"> 
<div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">The commercial real estate crisis is spreading: US office vacancy rates in San Francisco reached 25.4% in June, the most among major American metros. This is followed by Houston and Seattle where office vacancy rates are 23.8% and 23.2%. The lowest vacancy rates are still a… <a href="https://t.co/TzeveqJV0N">pic.twitter.com/TzeveqJV0N</a>
&mdash; The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) <a href="https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1817971321277763942?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 29, 2024</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></div>
<figcaption class="wp-element-caption">The following U.S. metropolitan areas have the highest office vacancy rates.</figcaption></figure>
<ul>
<li>San Francisco, California — 25.4% </li>
<li>Houston, Texas — 23.8% </li>
<li>Seattle, Washington — 23.2% </li>
<li>Austin, Texas — 22.9% </li>
<li>Denver, Colorado — 22.1% </li>
</ul>
San Francisco&#8217;s Bay Area, which includes Silicon Valley, is the heart of technology companies in the U.S. A 25.4% vacancy rate is much higher than its 9.3% median vacancy <a href="https://www.normmiller.net/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/Revisiting-the-Derivation-of-an-Equilibrium-Vacancy-Rate1.pdf">rate</a> from 1997 to 2013 (as found in a 2014 Journal of Real Estate Portfolio Management article).
Meanwhile, the bottom five cities have weathered the storm comparatively well.
<ul>
<li>Miami, Florida — 12% </li>
<li>Boston, Massachusetts — 12.8% </li>
<li>Tampa, Florida — 13.3% </li>
<li>Charlotte, North Carolina — 14.9%</li>
<li>Philadelphia, Pennsylvania — 15.3% </li>
</ul>
The U.S. overall office space vacancy rate crossed 20% for the first time in 2024&#8217;s second quarter, <a href="https://cre.moodysanalytics.com/insights/cre-trends/q2-2024-preliminary-trend-announcement/">according</a> to Moody&#8217;s.
Market Implications: REITs with commercial real estate holdings have by and large struggled since the onset of the pandemic:
<ul>
<li>Alexandria Real Estate Equities Inc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ARE#NYSE">ARE</a>) is the largest office REIT by market cap. It owns properties in San Francisco and Boston, among other locations. Its share price is down over 18% in the past five years.</li>
<li>BXP Inc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BXP#NYSE">BXP</a>), formerly Boston Properties, owns buildings in Boston, San Francisco and Seattle. Its share price is down 45% in the past five years.</li>
<li>Hudson Pacific Properties, Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/HPP#NYSE">HPP</a>) owns properties on the West Coast with exposure to San Francisco and Seattle. Its market capitalization is 83% less than it was five years ago.</li>
<li>Cousins Properties Inc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CUZ#NYSE">CUZ</a>) owns properties in Austin, Charlotte and Tampa, among other locations. Cousins shares are trading nearly 20% lower now than five years ago.</li>
<li>Kilroy Realty Corporation (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/KRC#NYSE">KRC</a>) owns office buildings in San Francisco and Austin. Its share are trading over 50% lower than five years ago.</li>
</ul>
Several exchange-traded funds (ETFs) track the real estate industry with some exposure to office REITs, including:
<ul>
<li>The Vanguard Real Estate Index Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VNQ#NYSE">VNQ</a>)</li>
<li>The Schwab US REIT ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SCHH#NYSE">SCHH</a>)</li>
<li>The Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLRE#NYSE">XLRE</a>)</li>
</ul>
These funds have fared better than the individual office REITs due to their diversification.
Now Read:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/real-estate/24/04/38111796/why-fitch-thinks-the-coming-commercial-real-estate-crash-could-be-worse-than-2008">Why Fitch Thinks The Coming Commercial Real Estate Crash Could Be Worse Than 2008</a></li>
</ul>

Work From Home Has Hit Office Real Estate The Hardest In These 5 US Cities

The latest Fed&#8217;s favorite inflation report, unveiled Friday by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, showed mixed <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/inflation">results for market participants</a>.
What Happened: The headline Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index fell to 2.5% year-on-year in June, as expected. 
The core component remained steady at 2.6%, countering expectations of <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/24/07/39983210/feds-preferred-inflation-measure-shows-mixed-readings-personal-income-spending-fa">a drop to 2.5%.</a>
The headline index&#8217;s decline to 2.5% marks the lowest point since February 2021, a level also seen in January and February 2024.
This data kept market-based probabilities for a September rate cut largely unaffected, with fed futures continuing to indicate a 100% chance of rate reductions, according to CME Group&#8217;s FedWatch tool.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis also reported lower-than-expected monthly increases in both personal spending and personal income last month. 
<ul>
<li>Personal income rose 0.2% in June, down from 0.4% in May and below the expected 0.4%. </li>
<li>Personal spending increased 0.3%, also down from 0.4% in May and missing the forecasted 0.3%.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Market reactions and pre-market ETF performances</h3>
U.S. equity futures maintained strong gains during premarket trading, despite a slight dip in large-cap index futures following the PCE report.
The U.S. dollar index remained broadly unchanged, while Treasury yields inched slightly lower, boosting bond-related exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in pre-market trading.
Interest-rate sensitive sectors, such as real estate, miners, and small caps, rose. Technology stocks also sharply rallied following declines in the previous two sessions.
Investors and traders are closely monitoring these exchange-traded funds, which showed notable pre-market gains:
<ol>
<li>iShares Semiconductor ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SOXX#NYSE">SOXX</a>) up 2.3%</li>
<li>ARK Innovation ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ARKK#NYSE">ARKK</a>) up 1.8%</li>
<li>Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLK#NYSE">XLK</a>) up 1.6%</li>
<li>Invesco Solar ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TAN#NYSE">TAN</a>) up 1.5%</li>
<li>iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IWM#NYSE">IWM</a>) up 1.3%</li>
<li>Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLC#NYSE">XLC</a>) up 1.2%</li>
<li>US Global JETS ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/JETS#NYSE">JETS</a>) up 1.2%</li>
<li>VanEck Gold Miners ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GDX#NYSE">GDX</a>) up 1.1%</li>
<li>Vanguard Real Estate ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VNQ#NYSE">VNQ</a>) up 0.9%</li>
<li>iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) up 0.5%</li>
</ol>
Now Read:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/24/07/39970069/investors-go-all-in-on-small-caps-pour-over-6-billion-into-russell-2000-etf-this-month-they-will">Investors Go All In On Small Caps, Pour Over $6 Billion Into Russell 2000 ETF This Month: They &#8216;Will Return To Larger-Cap Alternatives,&#8217; Veteran Analyst Says</a></li>
</ul>
Image: Shutterstock

ARKK

Market Vectors ETF Trust Market Vectors Gold Miners

JETS

iShares PHLX SOX Semiconductor Sector Index Fund

SOXX

Fed's Favorite Inflation Gauge Falls To 2.5%, Lowest Since February 2021, But Core Remains Sticky: 10 ETFs To Monitor Thursday

지난주 미국 투자자들은 소비자물가지수(CPI)가 3%로 몇 달 동안 가장 높은 인플레이션 수치 중 하나를 기록해 충격을 받았다. CPI는 2022년 9%를 돌파한 이후 꾸준히 하락해 왔으며, 시장은 연말까지 연준의 2% 목표치에 근접할 것으로 예상했다.
그러나 이렇게 높은 CPI 수치는 몇 가지 의문을 제기한다. 이러한 일회성 효과는 계절적 요인에 의한 것일까? 아니면 소비자들이 잠재적인 관세에 대해 미리 움직이고 있는 것일까? 아니면 식량과 에너지와 같은 특정 요소가 새로운 인플레이션 물결의 경고 신호를 보내고 있는 것일까?
한 번의 높은 CPI 수치로 경각심을 불러일으키기 어렵지만, 투자자와 소비자들은 경계심을 갖게 되었다. 이전에 기록했던 CPI 9%라는 수치의 상처는 여전히 모든 사람의 마음에 생생하게 남아 있으며, 몇 번 더 높은 수치가 나온다면 2025년의 금리인하 희망이 사라질 수 있다. 인플레이션이 다시 시작되면 일부 섹터는 다른 섹터보다 더 제대로 대비해야 한다.
인플레이션이 계속 높을 경우 피해야 할 5가지 섹터는 다음과 같다.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">소비재</h3>
코로나19 팬데믹 이후 인플레이션이 급증하자, 소비자들은 사치품과 경험보다는 필수품에 집중하기 시작했다. 인플레이션은 자주 구매하지 않거나 더 저렴한 대체품이 있는 소비재 부문의 기업에 타격을 입힌다. 또한 구매력을 약화시켜 가처분 소득을 소비재에 덜 사용한다.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="wp-image-791862" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20154223/arca-1024x420.png" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20154223/arca-1024x420.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20154223/arca-300x123.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20154223/arca-768x315.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20154223/arca.png 1309w" alt="" width="1024" height="420" /></figure>
iShares US Consumer Discretionary ETF(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IYC#NYSE">IYC</a>) 차트에 따르면 이 부문은 2021년 11월에 정점을 찍은 후 거의 3년 동안 새로운 최고치를 기록하지 못했다.  CPI가 2%에 가까워지면서 ETF는 지난 12개월 동안 28% 상승했지만, 새로운 물결이 특히 자동차 제조업체, 주택 건설업체, 여행사, 명품 의류 브랜드와 같은 업종에 타격을 줄 수 있다. 향후 몇 달 동안 인플레이션이 계속 상승한다면, 크루즈 회사, 호텔, 전문 소매업체와 같은 주식에 대한 노출을 줄이는 것을 고려해야 할 것이다.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">부동산 투자신탁(REITs)</h3>
높은 배당금으로 인해, 때때로 리츠(REITs)는 인플레이션 헤지로 간주되기도 한다. 그러나 인플레이션은 금리 상승을 통해 차입 비용을 증가시키는 경향이 있으며, 리츠와 같이 부채가 많은 기업은 활동 자금 조달을 위해 더 많은 비용을 지불하는 것을 좋아하지 않는다. 차입 비용이 상승하면, 리츠는 확장을 늦추거나 배당금 지급을 중단할 수 있다. 높은 금리는 더 나은 금융 옵션을 기다리는 주택 구매자들을 시장에서 배제시킬 수도 있다.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="wp-image-791863" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20154234/van-1024x420.png" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20154234/van-1024x420.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20154234/van-300x123.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20154234/van-768x315.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20154234/van.png 1309w" alt="" width="1024" height="420" /></figure>
Vanguard Real Estate ETF(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VNQ#NYSE">VNQ</a>)는 2021년 12월부터 2023년 10월까지 37%의 손실을 입었다. 이는 리츠가 높은 CPI 수치와 연준의 금리 인상에 영향을 받는다는 것을 보여 준다. 인플레이션이 계속해서 높은 수준을 유지한다면, 공실이 많은 부동산을 소유하고 있거나 침체된 시장에 위치한 부동산 투자신탁이 가장 큰 위험에 처할 것이다.
상업용 리츠는 특히 위험에 노출되어 있다. 기업들이 인원을 늘리는 경우가 많기 때문에, 그리고 대기업에서 재택근무가 점점 더 표준화되고 있기 때문이다. 일부 기업은 직원들을 다시 사무실로 복귀시키려고 노력하고 있다. 리츠를 조사할 때는 부채 수준이 높고, 부동산 포트폴리오가 좋지 않으며, 배당금 지급 비율이 높은 기업은 피해야 한다.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">생명공학</h3>
생명공학(또는 바이오테크) 섹터는 언제나 투자하기에 불안정하며, 높은 인플레이션과 불확실성의 시기는 그 사실을 몇 배 더 악화시킬 수 있다. 생명공학 혁신은 비용이 많이 들고 시간이 많이 걸리며, 그 결과는 종종 몇 달 또는 몇 년 후에 나온다. 투자자들이 단기적인 사고방식을 채택할 때, 오랜 기간의 테스트와 실험이 필요한 생명공학 같은 섹터는 인기가 떨어진다.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="wp-image-791864" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20154243/pdr-1024x420.png" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20154243/pdr-1024x420.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20154243/pdr-300x123.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20154243/pdr-768x315.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20154243/pdr.png 1309w" alt="" width="1024" height="420" /></figure>
생명공학 섹터는 2022년의 약세장에서 아직 회복되지 않았고, 지속적인 인플레이션과 높은 금리는 궁지에 몰린 이 산업에 더 많은 문제를 야기할 수 있다. 생명공학 기업들은 연구개발에 막대한 초기 투자가 필요하기 때문에 마치 개가 스테이크를 먹는 것처럼 자본을 소모한다.
초기 단계의 많은 생명공학 기업들은 매출이 전혀 없고, 부채에 의존하여 간신히 버티고 있다. 공급 비용과 자금 조달 비용이 상승하면, 이런 회사들은 기존 주주들의 지분을 희석시키면서, 원치 않는 것보다 더 많은 주식을 팔아야 하는 경우가 많다. 투자자들이 불확실한 시기에 위험을 줄이려고 한다는 사실과 함께, 2025년을 시작하는 생명공학 섹터는 위태로워 보인다.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">산업재</h3>
생명공학과 마찬가지로, 인플레이션이 높을 때 산업 부문은 두 가지 중요한 역풍을 작용한다. 바로 긴 기간과 자본 집약적 프로젝트이다. 산업 기업은 주택을 짓고, 중장비를 생산하고, 귀중한 원자재를 운송하는데 이 모든 것에는 많은 사전 계획과 자본이 필요하다.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="wp-image-791865" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20154252/spdr-ser-1024x420.png" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20154252/spdr-ser-1024x420.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20154252/spdr-ser-300x123.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20154252/spdr-ser-768x315.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20154252/spdr-ser.png 1309w" alt="" width="1024" height="420" /></figure>
SDPR Sector Select Industrial Fund(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLI#NYSE">XLI</a>)는 2022년과 2023년 내내 좁은 범위에서 거래된 후 반등세를 보였다. 그러나 인플레이션도 반등한다면 이 부문의 기업들은 더 높은 자본 비용을 지불해야 하고 프로젝트를 중단해야 할 수도 있다. 산업 부문은 주기성이 매우 높으며, 경기 둔화는 종종 다른 시장 부문으로 파급된다.
또한, 산업 회사들은 많은 인력을 고용하고 있으며, 운영 자본에 덜 의존하는 분야보다 가격 결정력이 약한 경우가 많다. 위에서 언급한 바와 같이, 인플레이션이나 금리가 높을 때 비용이 많이 들고 시간이 많이 걸리는 것은 좋지 않은 조합이다.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">유틸리티</h3>
일반적으로 유틸리티는 시장 하락 시 안전한 분야로 여겨진다. 낮은 변동성과 안정적인 배당금으로 인해 약세장에서도 안전한 피난처로 여겨진다. 그러나 일반적인 시장 하락에는 높은 금리와 3% 이상의 CPI가 수반되지 않으며, 이러한 상황에서 유틸리티가 항상 가장 안전한 피난처는 아니다. SDPR Sector Select Utilities ETF(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLU#NYSE">XLU</a>)의 성과는 약세장이 항상 해당 분야에 호재가 되는 것은 아니라는 것을 보여 준다.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="wp-image-791866" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20154259/spdr-util-1024x420.png" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20154259/spdr-util-1024x420.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20154259/spdr-util-300x123.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20154259/spdr-util-768x315.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20154259/spdr-util.png 1309w" alt="" width="1024" height="420" /></figure>
유틸리티의 매력은 자본 가치 상승이 아니라 분기 배당금에 있다. 배당금을 통한 소득은 많은 투자자들에게 채권과 유사한 수단을 만들어 준다. 많은 투자자들이 유틸리티와 기술주 같은 위험성이 높은 주식을 함께 매입함으로써 성장과 소득을 모두 얻을 수 있는 기회를 얻는다. 그러나 인플레이션이 상승하면 금리도 상승하게 되고, 높은 금리는 미국 재무부 채권과 기업 부채와 같은 실제 채권의 매력을 더해줄 것이다.
투자자들이 미국 재무부 채권에서 유사한 수익률을 얻을 수 있다고 가정해 보자. 이 경우, 그들은 당연히 쿠폰 지급을 고정하고 기간이 종료되면 자본 수익을 보장하는 재무부 채권에 기대를 걸 것이다. 또한, 공공시설은 부채가 많고 엄격한 규제 심사를 받는다. 규제 지연은 가격 인상이 종종 법에 의해 승인되어야 하기 때문에 이러한 회사의 수익에 타격을 줄 수 있다.
이미지 출처: Shutterstock
Benzinga Pro의 독점 뉴스 및 도구로 수익률을 높이세요.
독점 속보 및 스캐너와 같은 Benzinga Pro의 강력한 도구 세트로 다른 트레이더보다 우위를 점하세요. <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/pro/register?t=be2bewe5mibe3bz3&amp;utm_source=bz-kor">여기를 클릭</a>하여 14일 무료 체험을 시작하세요.

2025년은 <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/real-estate">미국 주택 시장</a>에 혁신적인 해가 될 것으로 예상되며, 새로운 기회를 제공하는 동시에 모든 이들을 긴장하게 만들 것이다.
질로우 그룹(NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ZG#NASDAQ">ZG</a>) (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/Z#NASDAQ">Z</a>)의 최신 <a href="https://www.zillow.com/research/2025-housing-predictions-34620/">예측</a>에 따르면, 구매자, 판매자 및 임차자에게 변화하는 역학관계를 보여준다. Vanguard Real Estate ETF(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VNQ#NYSE">VNQ</a>), Schwab US REIT ETF(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SCHH#NYSE">SCHH</a>) 및 Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLRE#NYSE">XLRE</a>)에 투자하는 이들은 이러한 역학관계를 면밀히 추적해야 한다.
참고: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/short-ideas/24/12/42265808/top-3-real-estate-stocks-that-may-plunge-this-quarter">이번 분기에 급락할 수 있는 상위 3개 부동산 주식</a>
주목해야 할 다섯 가지 트렌드는 다음과 같다:
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">1. 완만한 시장 속에서 구매자들의 숨통이 트이다</h2>
구매자들에게 반가운 소식이다: 더 많은 매물이 시장에 나올 예정이어서 선택할 시간을 갖고 협상력을 높일 수 있다. 질로우는 주택 가치가 2.6% 완만하게 성장하고 기존 주택 판매가 430만 채로 증가할 것으로 예상하여, 수년간 긴축되어 있던 시장이 점차 풀릴 신호를 보인다.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">2. 주택담보대출 금리의 변동성</h2>
주택담보대출(모기지) 금리는 여전히 변동성이 클 것이다. 질로우는 금리가 전반적으로 완화될 것으로 예상하지만, 그 변동성은 경험이 많은 구매자도 불안하게 만들 수 있다. 금리가 하락할 때 재융자 붐이 발생하고, 연중 내내 주택 구매력의 기복이 있을 것으로 예상된다.
iShares MBS ETF(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MBB#NYSE">MBB</a>)와 Vanguard Mortgage-Backed Securities ETF(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VMBS#NYSE">VMBS</a>)에 투자하는 이들은 높은 불확실성에 직면할 수 있다.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">3. 구매자 시장의 서부로 확산</h2>
현재는 동남부에 집중된 구매자 시장이 서남부로 확산될 것으로 예상되어, 구매자에게 협상에서 더 많은 힘을 줄 것이다.
하지만 주택담보대출 금리가 크게 하락하면서 경쟁이 치열해지기 때문에 판매자가 우위를 되찾을 수 있다.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">4. 더 작고 스마트한 주택의 증가</h2>
대형 맨션은 잊으세요. 작고 목적이 있는 주택이 주목받고 있다. &#8220;아늑한&#8221; 특징을 가진 주택 매물의 수는 35% 증가하여, 지속 가능하고 저렴한 생활로의 문화적 전환을 반영하고 있다. 질로우에 따르면, 도시 내 아파트도 가치가 안정화되고 있어 도시 생활로 돌아오는 구매자를 끌어들이고 있다.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">5. 임차인의 혜택은 한정적</h2>
다세대 주택 건설의 급증으로 2024년은 임차인에게 우호적인 해로, 무료 임대료와 주차 공간과 같은 혜택이 풍부하다. 하지만 질로우는 이러한 혜택이 2025년 말까지 줄어들 것으로 예측하고 있으며, 임대 시장이 긴축될 것으로 보인다. 반려동물을 가진 임차인은 여전히 강력한 세력으로 남아, 주택 관리자가 더 많은 반려동물 친화적인 정책을 채택하도록 하거나 세입자를 잃게 될 위험에 처할 것이다.
2025년 주택 시장은 더 활성화되고 구매자에게 우호적으로 변화할 것으로 보이지만, 예측 불가능성이 크게 작용할 것이다. 주택담보대출 금리의 변동부터 변화하는 구매자 트렌드까지, 이 진화하는 시장에서 최대한의 효과를 얻으려면 민첩하고 정보에 밝게 대응하는 것이 중요하다.

다음 내용 읽기: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/real-estate/24/12/42287030/real-estate-veteran-pens-open-letter-to-donald-trump-resurrecting-housing-will-require-innovative-and-daring-solutions">부동산 베테랑, 도널드 트럼프에게 공개 서한을 보냄: &#8216;주택 시장의 부활은 혁신적이고 대담한 해결책이 필요하다&#8217;</a></li>
</ul>
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<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/pro/register?t=be2bewe5mibe3bz3&amp;utm_source=bz-kor" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">여기를 클릭</a>하여 14일 무료 체험을 시작하세요.

상업용 부동산 업계는 원격 근무와 <a href="http://benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/04/38219988/economists-warn-feds-inflation-battle-could-trigger-recession-have-to-increase-the-" target="_blank" rel="noopener">인플레이션 상승</a>의 영향으로 계속해서 어려움을 겪고 있다.
이자율이 상승하고 다양한 산업 분야에서 사무실 공간을 축소하려는 광범위한 추세로 인해 이 분야는 전례 없는 규모의 빈 사무실 공간에 직면하게 되었다.
<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/04/38273192/goldman-sachs-boasts-near-perfect-q1-results-5-analysts-zero-in-on-core-strengths" target="_blank" rel="noopener">월요일 실적 발표에서</a> 골드만삭스 그룹(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GS#NYSE">GS</a>)의 최고경영자(CEO) 데이비드 M. 솔로몬(David M. Solomon)은 인플레이션에 대한 지속적인 우려와 지정학적 긴장 고조와 함께 상업용 부동산의 열악한 상황을 미국 성장을 둔화시키는 주요 요인 중 하나로 언급했다.
이 부문은 금리를 둘러싼 추측에 특히 민감해졌다. 지난달, 연방준비제도(연준)의 금리 인하가 암시되면서 <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/real-estate/reit/24/03/37882885/10-real-estate-stocks-move-on-thursday-fed-rate-cut-possibility-sparks-rally-for-troubled-sector" target="_blank" rel="noopener">여러 주식과 펀드가 상승</a>했다. 이는 일반적으로 위험한 시장에 대한 안정성을 제공한다고 칭찬받는 부문에서는 알 수 없는 변동성을 보여주었다.
불과 며칠 후 S&amp;P 글로벌(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPGI#NYSE">SPGI</a>)은 불안정한 상업용 부동산 시장과 관련된 위험을 기반으로 5개 지역 은행의 등급을 <a href="https://www.benzinga.com//node/37950136" target="_blank" rel="noopener">하향 조정</a>하기로 결정했다.
거대 기술 기업의 운영 변화는 부분적으로 상업용 부동산 침체를 부채질하고 있다. 코로나19 사태 이후 기술 부문에서 새로운 현상이 된 원격 또는 하이브리드 근무로의 변화로 인해 많은 기업이 필요한 것보다 더 많은 사무실 공간을 확보하게 되었다.
이는 2023년 하반기에 약간의 감소세를 보인 후 <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/24/01/36874447/tech-layoffs-up-over-300-month-over-month-in-january-3-companies-with-the-most-employees-laid-of" target="_blank" rel="noopener">2024년 1분기 동안 기술 부문</a>에서 계속해서 일반적인 관행으로 이어졌던 대규모 해고 추세에 추가되었다.
지난달 말 아마존닷컴 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>)은 <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/03/37983953/amazons-strategic-real-estate-plan-to-reduce-vacancy-rate-and-enhance-workspace-efficiency" target="_blank" rel="noopener">사무실 공간을 줄이고 임대를 조기 종료</a>하여 13억 달러를 절감할 계획이라고 밝혔다. 이 거대 기술 기업은 2022년과 2023년에 27,000명 이상의 직원을 해고한 후 사무실 공실률이 33.8%에 달할 것으로 예상된다.
월스트리트 저널(WSJ)의 <a href="https://www.wsj.com/real-estate/commercial/big-tech-is-downsizing-work-space-in-another-blow-to-office-real-estate-67b4685c?mod=hp_featst_pos3">보도</a>에 따르면, 알파벳(NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>)(NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOGL#NASDAQ">GOOGL</a>)는 실리콘밸리의 일부 사무실 공간을 서브리스하고, 메타 플랫폼(NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>)은 자사 사무실 공간의 계약을 줄였다. 페이스북을 소유하고 있는 이 기업은 올해 전세계적으로, <a href="https://www.benzinga.com//node/37024306">싱가포르와</a>, <a href="https://www.benzinga.com//node/34900681">런던</a> 등의 지역을 포함하여 사무실 공간을 대폭 축소하고 있다. 한편, 세일즈포스 (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CRM#NYSE">CRM</a>)는 증권거래위원회(SEC) 보고서에서 1년 전과 비교했을 때 샌프란시스코 지역의 사무실 공간을 절반만 사용하고 있다고 밝혔다.
같이 읽기: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs/broad-u-s-equity-etfs/24/04/38278182/powell-delays-fed-rate-cuts-we-need-greater-confidence-in-inflation-2-year-yields-spik">파월은 왜 이자율 인하를 미루고 있는가</a>?
기술 부문의 후퇴는 법률 회사와 금융 회사를 포함한 다른 일반적인 사무실 주거 부문의 손실을 추가할 때 부동산 부문에 특히 고통스러운 것으로 입증되었다.
무디스 애널리틱스(Moody&#8217;s Analytics) 보고서에 따르면 1월까지 전국 대도시의 평균 <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/24/01/36542862/empty-spaces-us-office-vacancies-rise-to-highest-levels-in-four-decades" target="_blank" rel="noopener">빈 사무실 공간은 19.6%</a>로 1979년 이후 최고치를 기록했다.
요즘 몇몇 도시에서는 극도의 사무실 공실률을 보이고 있는데, 샌프란시스코의 경우 팬데믹 이전 3.6%에 불과했던 것에 비해 36.7%를 기록했다. 이러한 공백은 시애틀, 뉴욕, 오스틴 등 기술 산업과 관련된 도시에서 더욱 두드러진다. 시애틀에서는 해당 지역에서 약 45,000명의 직원이 해고된 후 <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/financing/24/02/37134484/seattles-office-space-dives-98-7-dip-reflects-tech-storm-hybrid-shifts" target="_blank" rel="noopener">2023년 사무실 부동산 거래가 전년 동기 대비 98.7%</a>나 감소했다.
지난주 웰스파고(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/WFC#NYSE">WFC</a>)의 1분기 통화에서 CEO 찰스 W. 샤르프(Charles W. Scharf)는 해당 부문의 대출 수요 감소로 인해 상업용 부동산 수익이 전년도보다 7% 감소했다고 말했다.
그러나 이 임원은 주로 사무실 공간으로 구성된 이 부문이 2023년 4분기와 비교했을 때 큰 변화를 경험하지 못했다고 덧붙였다.
자산 관리 부문에서 가장 큰 규모의 부동산 ETF인 뱅가드 부동산 지수 펀드 (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VNQ#NYSE">VNQ</a>)는 올 초 이후로 거의 11% 하락한 수치를 기록하며, 지난 5일 동안에만 5%의 하락을 기록하고 있다.
슈왑 US REIT ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SCHH#NYSE">SCHH</a>)와 리얼 에스테이트 셀렉트 섹터 SPDR 펀드 (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLRE#NYSE">XLRE</a>)는 매우 유사한 추이를 보이고 있다.
그러나 이 분야의 투자자들에게 이것이 모두 나쁜 소식은 아니다. 블랙스톤(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BX#NYSE">BX</a>)의 사장인 존 그레이(Jon Gray)는 최근 지금이 부동산 급락에 <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/03/37719939/is-it-time-to-buy-the-commercial-real-estate-dip-the-worlds-biggest-private-equity-" target="_blank" rel="noopener">&#8220;저가 매수&#8221;</a>할 적절한 시기가 될 수 있다고 말했다. 자산 운용사는 연준이 조만간 금리를 인하해야 할 것이라는 점을 고려하면서 상업용 부동산의 장기적인 미래에 대해 낙관하고 있다.
그런 일이 발생하면 이러한 경기 침체로 인한 새로운 개발 공급 감소와 저렴한 차입 비용이 결합되어 업계가 다시 한 번 상승할 수 있다.
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