PIMCO 25 Year Zero Coupon U.S. Treasury Index Exchange-Traded Fund (ARCA: ZROZ)

에 대한 최신 뉴스 PIMCO 25 Year Zero Coupon U.S. Treasury Index Exchange-Traded Fund (ARCA:ZROZ)

PIMCO 25 Year Zero Coupon U.S. Treasury Index Exchange-Traded Fund

The fund invests at least 80% of its total assets (exclusive of collateral held from securities lending) in the component securities of the ICE BofA Long US Treasury Principal STRIPS Index (the underlying index). The underlying index is an unmanaged index comprised of long maturity Separate Trading of Registered Interest and Principal of Securities (STRIPS) representing the final principal payment of U.S. Treasury bonds.

PIMCO 25+ Year Zero Coupon US Treasury Index Exchange-Traded Fund

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ZROZ

투자자들은 무디스의 신용등급 강등으로 인해 장기 만기 미국 국채 ETF에 수십억 달러를 쏟아 부었다. 부채 위험이 심화되는 상황에서 이러한 신뢰가 지속될 수 있을지에 대한 새로운 의구심이 제기된다.

무디스의 미국 신용등급 강등 전 장기 국채 ETF에 베팅한 투자자들···신뢰 유지될까?

Investors poured billions into long-dated U.S. Treasury ETFs in the days leading up to Moody's credit rating downgrade—raising fresh doubts over whether that confidence can endure <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/05/45500872/30-year-treasury-yields-hit-5-what-that-means-for-stocks">as debt risks deepen.</a>
The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>)—the world&#8217;s biggest fixed-income ETF—attracted $2.07 billion in inflows between May 12 and May 16, according to ETFdb.com flow data. This is the largest weekly haul since November 2024 and the second biggest since June 2024.
Other long-duration Treasury ETFs also recorded notable inflows last week:
The Direxion Daily 20-Yr Treasury Bull 3x Shares (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TMF#NYSE">TMF</a>)—which offers triple-leveraged exposure to 20-year Treasury bonds—attracted $470 million, its largest weekly inflow since November 2024, signaling a surge in leveraged bullish bets on long-term rates.
Meanwhile, the PIMCO 25+ Year Zero Coupon U.S. Treasury ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ZROZ#NYSE">ZROZ</a>) pulled in $32.8 million, marking its strongest week of inflows since January 2025.
The timing is notable: the surge in demand preceded Friday's Moody's downgrade, which cut the U.S. sovereign rating to Aa1 from Aaa, citing chronic deficits, rising debt servicing costs, and a bleak fiscal outlook heading toward deficits near 9% of GDP by 2035, should the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act be extended.
Still, year-to-date long-dated Treasury ETFs have seen more outflows than inflows. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) witnessed $1.2 billion in outflows, positioning 2025 to potentially become the first year of net withdrawals since 2020. 
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Tariff Truce Sparked Optimism, Reduced Recession Odds </h3>
Part of the inflows into long-dated Treasuries may have been fueled by a major U.S.-China trade breakthrough, with both sides agreeing to slash tariffs by 115 percentage points—a move that sparked a rally in risk assets and lowered perceived recession risks.
Last week's economic tone was notably risk-on – bolstered by two cooler-than-expected inflation reports – and investors, anticipating stability in interest rates and soft-landing potential, re-entered duration trades in Treasury markets. Long bonds typically perform well when growth fears ease and the market sees room for rate cuts.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Moody's Downgrade Adds Tension—But No Panic</h3>
Despite the downgrade, the market response was measured on Monday. The 30-year Treasury yield briefly spiked above 5% on Monday before falling back to 4.92% as demand resurfaced.
The TLT ETF inched 0.3% lower, signaling that while sentiment slightly weakened, there was no panic selling.
"Friday&#8217;s U.S. sovereign downgrade by Moody&#8217;s is unlikely to result in forced selling but may worsen UST sentiment," said Bank of America analyst Mark Cabana in a note.
Yet, several analysts across Wall Street have largely downplayed the immediate impact of the downgrade. 
Further, regulatory frameworks—such as the Basel III capital standards—continue to treat U.S. Treasuries rated AAA to AA- as risk-free for capital requirement purposes. 
This means banks and institutional investors face no changes in how they treat U.S. government bonds, reinforcing the structural role Treasuries play as collateral and liquidity instruments globally.
The appetite for duration remains intact—for now—but whether investors continue pouring in as fiscal risks take center stage remains to be seen.
Read Next:
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/25/05/45497403/is-the-dollars-global-reserve-role-at-risk-after-moodys-downgrade">Is The Dollar&#8217;s Global Reserve Role At Risk After Moody&#8217;s Downgrade? </a></li>
</ul>
Photo: Shutterstock

Investors Piled Into Long-Term Treasury ETFs Ahead Of Moody's Downgrade: Will Confidence Hold?

Fears of the end of the U.S. exceptionalism trade have triggered a rare, simultaneous selloff across stocks, Treasuries and the dollar in recent weeks, as concerns over tariffs and the politicization of the Federal Reserve under President Donald <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/donald-trump">Trump continue to mount.</a>
Since Trump's self-declared "Liberation Day" on April 2, when he unveiled sweeping "reciprocal tariffs" on U.S. trading partners, the market reaction has been swift and broadly negative. U.S. government bonds, traditionally a refuge during equity volatility, have failed to provide a safe haven.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">The Trump-Powell Tension Behind The Market Unwind</h3>
Market fragility was further exposed by Trump&#8217;s open attacks on Fed Chair Jerome Powell. 
First, he wrote last week on Truth Social, "Jerome Powell is always too late and wrong. His termination cannot come fast enough." 
Then, during a press conference with Italy's Giorgia Meloni, he pushed the issue further: "If I want him out. He&#8217;ll be out of there real fast. Believe me."
Confirmation from National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett that the administration is "considering" removing Powell before his term ends in 2026, also added fuel to the fire.
On Monday, the Trump-Powell drama escalated again, sending shockwaves across currency markets, where central bank independence is viewed as a cornerstone of stability.
Trump posted on Truth Social, pushing for "preemptive" interest rate cuts. He wrote that with energy costs and food prices falling — sarcastically referencing Biden's "egg disaster" — inflation was virtually gone. The president warned of a slowing economy unless Powell, whom he labeled a "major loser," acted immediately.
He further accused Powell of political bias during the previous election cycle, claiming the Fed Chair only cut rates to help former President Joe Biden and later Vice President Kamala Harris win the White House.
Betting markets currently assign a 23% chance on Powell no longer serving as Fed Chair by the end of the year. 
<iframe loading="lazy" src="https://kalshi.com/external-widgets/events/LEAVEPOWELL-25/markets/LEAVEPOWELL-25-DEC31?color_scheme=light&#038;widget_size=large&#038;utm_campaign=benzinga_widget" width="552px" height="400px" style="border:0"></iframe>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Triple Threat: Stocks, Bonds, Dollar All Down</h3>
The market has responded decisively. Since April 2, 2025:
<ul>
<li>The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) has dropped more than 6%</li>
<li>The Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>), tracking the dollar index, has fallen 5.8%</li>
<li>The SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) has tumbled over 8%</li>
</ul>
This rare triple selloff challenges a foundational assumption: that Treasuries typically gain when risk assets fall. 
The breakdown of this historical inverse correlation has led many to wonder: Are investors abandoning Treasuries?
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">What the Official Data Shows, And What It Doesn't</h2>
The latest U.S. Treasury International Capital (TIC) data, covering February, doesn&#8217;t show large-scale foreign divestment. 
According to Goldman Sachs, foreign investors actually net purchased long-term U.S. securities in February, including Treasuries, equities and corporate bonds.
Agency securities saw some selling, but overall the data point to continued interest from global buyers—even as market volatility ramps up.
That said, February is now outdated. 
With April&#8217;s turbulence unfolding post-TIC cutoff, the latest exchange-traded fund flows could offer more immediate clues about investor behavior.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">ETF Flows Reveal a More Nuanced Picture</h3>
According to data from ETFDB.com through April 18, there's no evidence of broad-based exodus from Treasury ETFs. 
Despite some rotation out of long-duration ETFs like TLT and Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EDV#NYSE">EDV</a>), short- and mid-duration Treasury ETFs have attracted strong inflows during the month. 
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>ETF Name </th>
<th>April Flows</th>
<th>Trend Insight</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF </td>
<td>-$2.85 billion</td>
<td>Outflows have outweighed inflows since September 2024. </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury ETF</td>
<td>-$385 million</td>
<td>Worst monthly outflow since data began in 2015</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>iShares U.S. Treasury Bond ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOVT#NYSE">GOVT</a>)</td>
<td>+$78 million</td>
<td>Modest recovery after March's $2.95 billion outflow</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SHY#NASDAQ">SHY</a>)</td>
<td>+$1.2 billion</td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IEI#NYSE">IEI</a>)</td>
<td>+$897 million</td>
<td>Highest inflows since July 2022</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>iShares Short Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SHV#NASDAQ">SHV</a>)</td>
<td>+$2.94 billion</td>
<td>Best month since February 2023</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IEF#NYSE">IEF</a>)</td>
<td>+$230 million</td>
<td>Four straight months of inflows</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VGIT#NASDAQ">VGIT</a>)</td>
<td>+$770 million</td>
<td>Strongest inflows since June 2024</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VGSH#NASDAQ">VGSH</a>)</td>
<td>+$505 million</td>
<td>On pace for fourth straight positive month</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>PIMCO 25+ Year Zero Coupon U.S. Treasury ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ZROZ#NYSE">ZROZ</a>)</td>
<td>+$3.55 million</td>
<td>Minimal activity; flows remain stagnant since October 2024</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Data as of April 18, 2025</figcaption></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">What About China?</h3>
There's also speculation that major foreign holders, especially China, could be reducing exposure to U.S. government debt in retaliation for tariffs. 
Yet, Goldman Sachs analysts see little evidence of that.
They indicated the recent dislocations are "more likely related to position unwinds by levered investors than significant real money (domestic or international) selling," a view also recently expressed by <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/scott-bessent">U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent</a> during a Bloomberg interview. 
As Goldman highlighted, the dollar/yuan exchange rate behavior does not support the idea of major Chinese repatriation—
if Beijing were dumping Treasuries, USD/CNY would likely face sharp downward pressure, but the opposite has happened.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">No Sign Of A Treasury Crisis, Yet</h3>
The bottom line: while some repositioning out of longer-dated Treasuries has been repositioned, ETF flows suggest no broad investor flight from the Treasury market.
If anything, there is a tilt toward shorter maturities, likely reflecting a desire to hedge against both rate volatility and political uncertainty.
Until more recent TIC data is available in June, ETF flows remain the best window into investor sentiment and so far, they suggest the panic narrative may be premature.
Now Read: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/25/04/44886209/if-you-had-bet-on-gold-after-the-1971-nixon-shock-youd-have-beaten-the-sp-500-unless-you-did-this-one-thing">If You Had Bet On Gold After The 1971 Nixon Shock, You&#8217;d Have Beaten The S&amp;P 500 — Unless You Did This One Thing</a></li>
</ul>
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Are Investors Selling US Treasuries As Trump Attacks Powell? Here's What Latest ETF Flows Tell You

Long-dated U.S. Treasuries are rallying, breaking above a key downtrend that began in late 2023, fueled by recent soft economic data, which has led investors to reprice higher expectations on the Federal Reserve cutting <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/interest-rates">interest rates in September.</a>
The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>), a popular gauge for long-term bond performance, has climbed to $92 on Tuesday, eyeing its fourth consecutive day of gains.
This recent spike has lifted TLT above its declining trend channel for 2024 and, crucially, above its 50-day moving average. These technical indicators suggest a potential trend reversal is underway.
Other ETFs that track long-term zero-coupon Treasuries, such as the Pimco 25 Year Zero Coupon U.S. Treasury Index ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ZROZ#NYSE">ZROZ</a>), have seen even higher increases in recent sessions, surging as much as 6% over the last four days.
Chart: TLT ETF Rallies Above 50-Day Average, Snaps Bearish 2024 Trend
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="500" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/04104650/image-11-1024x500.png" alt="" class="wp-image-370257" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/04104650/image-11-1024x500.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/04104650/image-11-300x147.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/04104650/image-11-768x375.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/04104650/image-11-1536x750.png 1536w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/04104650/image-11.png 1920w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Weak Economic Data Fuels Bets On Fed Rate Cut in September</h3>
Recent economic data releases have fallen short of expectations, reigniting speculation that the Federal Reserve may start cutting interest rates as early as September.
Last week, the second estimate for U.S. GDP growth in the first quarter delivered a downward revision from 1.6% to 1.3%. Additionally, the Chicago PMI business activity index showed its worst reading since May 2020.
On Monday, the ISM Manufacturing PMI for May extended the contractionary trend seen <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/24/06/39140837/treasury-yields-fall-dollar-weakens-as-manufacturing-activity-gauge-contracts-more-than-expected">in April, also missing expectations.</a>
Tuesday brought news that the number of job openings in April 2024 dropped by 296,000 compared to the previous month, reaching the lowest level since February 2021 and falling short of expectations of 8.34 million.
These disappointing data points have led traders to significantly increase their bets on a Fed rate cut in September. According to CME Group&#8217;s FedWatch tool, the market now assigns a 65% chance of a rate cut, up from 46% just a week ago.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">All Eyes On This Week&#8217;s Jobs Data</h3>
The upcoming days will witness crucial updates on the U.S. labor market, with a series of data releases that will significantly impact financial markets.
On Wednesday, the ADP will release its private Employment Report, followed by the highly anticipated official employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday.
Economist consensus data compiled by Econoday predicts a rise in nonfarm payrolls from 175,000 in April to 195,000 in May. The estimates range from a low of 151,000 to a high of 225,000. 
The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 3.9%. Average hourly earnings are forecast to show a slight monthly increase, rising from 0.2% to 0.3%. The annual growth rate is predicted to hold steady at 3.9%.
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Measure</th>
<th>April 2024</th>
<th>May 2024 (consensus)</th>
<th>Consensus range</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Nonfarm payrolls (M/M)</td>
<td>175,000</td>
<td>195,000</td>
<td>151,000 to 225,000</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Unemployment rate</td>
<td>3.9%</td>
<td>3.9%</td>
<td>3.8 % to 3.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Average hourly earnings (M/M)</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>0.2% to 0.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Average hourly earnings (Y/Y)</td>
<td>3.9%</td>
<td>3.9%</td>
<td>3.8% to 3.9%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Data: Econoday</figcaption></figure>
Read now: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/06/39162932/indian-stocks-tumble-the-most-since-march-2020-with-modis-party-set-to-lose-majorit">Indian Stocks Tumble The Most Since March 2020 With Modi&#8217;s Party Set To Lose Majority</a>
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Bond Market Rallies As Recession Worries Mount, Rate Cut Bets Gain Steam Ahead Of Jobs Data

A peculiar bond exchange-traded fund (ETF) doubled the returns of the S&amp;P 500 <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs/sector-etfs/23/11/36034497/this-months-top-performing-etfs-politics-fed-rate-cut-hopes-ignited-30-plus-rally-in-these-two-f">over the last month. </a>
The PIMCO 25 Year Zero Coupon U.S. Treasury Index ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ZROZ#NYSE">ZROZ</a>) surged 19.4% from Nov. 1 to Dec. 1, outshining the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>), which posted a 9.9% gain.
ZROZ invests primarily in U.S. Treasury bonds with maturities of 25 years or more. 
The key characteristic of these bonds is that they are zero-coupon. That means they do not pay periodic interest to bondholders, or ETF holders. Instead, they are issued at a discount to face value and mature at par (face value). For example, a zero-coupon bond trading at 80 cents to the dollar today has a face value of $100 at maturity.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="723" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/01164121/ZROZ_2023-12-01_20-40-55_10861-1024x723.png" alt="" class="wp-image-154116" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/01164121/ZROZ_2023-12-01_20-40-55_10861-1024x723.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/01164121/ZROZ_2023-12-01_20-40-55_10861-300x212.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/01164121/ZROZ_2023-12-01_20-40-55_10861-768x542.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/01164121/ZROZ_2023-12-01_20-40-55_10861.png 1530w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
For zero-coupon bonds like those in ZROZ&#8217;s portfolio, it&#8217;s key to understand the concept of &#8220;duration,&#8221; also known as the average maturity of the security, which is a measure of a bond&#8217;s price sensitivity to interest rate changes.
The duration of a zero coupon bond is essentially equal to the bond&#8217;s time to maturity. 
The PIMCO 25 Year Zero Coupon U.S. Treasury Index ETF invests in U.S. Treasury bonds with at least 25 years remaining until maturity, resulting in a duration of at least 25 years. 
This long duration means that ZROZ is highly sensitive to changes in the bond&#8217;s interest rates or yields. A 1% change in the yield of bonds within the portfolio corresponds to an approximate 25% shift in the bond&#8217;s price.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">ZROZ Rallies</h2>
ZROZ tends to perform well when interest rates decrease, as the value of its long-term bonds rises. 
Conversely, if rates begin to climb, ZROZ could face challenges, given the inverse relationship between bond prices and interest rates.
Over the past month, Treasury yields have fallen substantially, reflecting growing market expectations of Fed rate cuts in 2024
The yield on a 30-year Treasury bond has tumbled from 5.1% to approximately 4.40%, or 70 basis points. 
As yields fell, the price of Treasury securities soared. Consequently, duration assets, like long-dated zero-coupon Treasuries, have seen their prices rallying even further. 
Read Now: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/23/12/36047939/fed-chair-powell-remains-cautious-premature-to-declare-victory-on-inflation-prepa">Fed Chair Powell Remains Cautious &#8211; &#8216;Premature&#8217; To Declare Victory On Inflation, &#8216;Prepared To Tighten Policy Further&#8217;</a>

New ETFs

This Treasury ETF Has Doubled Last Month's S&P 500 Returns: What's Going On In The Bond Market?

Throughout November, financial markets experienced a significant upswing, with both stocks and<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets"> bonds on the rise. </a>
This surge was primarily driven by investors increasing their bets on potential Federal Reserve rate cuts in the upcoming year. Inflation continues to cool and Fed policymakers lean <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/23/11/36028726/we-are-now-at-the-soft-landing-economists-markets-react-to-subdued-pce-inflation-da">toward more dovish remarks. </a>
This optimism was reflected across various segments of the market. Let&#8217;s break down the top-performing exchange-traded funds (ETFs) across various asset classes, including country equities, U.S. equity sectors, thematic equities, bonds, and commodities. 
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Best Country ETFs In November</h2>
<ol>
<li>Global X MSCI Argentina ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ARGT#NYSE">ARGT</a>) up 31.5%: Topping the list, the ARGT ETF experienced a remarkable surge, buoyed by the electoral victory of ultra-liberalist Andrei Milei in Argentina. This political shift sparked a wave of bullish sentiment in Argentine stocks.</li>
<li>iShares MSCI Israel ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EIS#NYSE">EIS</a>) up 16.6%: Israeli equities also witnessed substantial growth. This rise was supported by a stabilization in the shekel, thanks to the intervention by the Bank of Israel following the start of conflict with Hamas. </li>
<li>iShares South Korea ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EWY#NYSE">EWY</a>) up 14.5%: South Korean stocks rallied following the financial regulator&#8217;s decision to re-impose a full ban on short-selling, providing a boost to the market.</li>
</ol>
Chart: ARGT ETF Posted Its Best-Performing Month In November
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="723" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/30165432/ARGT_2023-11-30_20-53-59_604c5-1024x723.png" alt="" class="wp-image-153399" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/30165432/ARGT_2023-11-30_20-53-59_604c5-1024x723.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/30165432/ARGT_2023-11-30_20-53-59_604c5-300x212.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/30165432/ARGT_2023-11-30_20-53-59_604c5-768x542.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/30165432/ARGT_2023-11-30_20-53-59_604c5.png 1530w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Best U.S. Equity Sector ETFs In November</h2>
<ol>
<li>Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLK#NYSE">XLK</a>) up 12.2%: The technology sector emerged as the front-runner in November. This uptrend is linked to the improved investor outlook and the anticipated decline in Federal Reserve interest rates.</li>
<li>Real Estate&nbsp;Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLRE#NYSE">XLRE</a>) up 11.9%: Real estate stocks also rallied in response to expectations of lower interest rates next year, which could provide a much-needed respite to a sector that has been severely hit by the elevated mortgage rates. </li>
<li>Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLF#NYSE">XLF</a>) up 10.5%: The financial sector, particularly bank stocks, showed robust gains, fueled by the prospect of increased lending activity amid borrowing costs next year.</li>
</ol>
Read also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/23/11/36029153/chilling-2024-s-p-500-outlook-why-jpmorgan-analysts-project-nightmare-scenario-for-">Chilling 2024 S&amp;P 500 Outlook: Why JPMorgan Analysts Project Nightmare Scenario For Stocks</a>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Best Thematic ETFs In November</h2>
<ol>
<li>ARK Innovation ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ARKK#NASDAQ">ARKK</a>) up 31.4%: Cathie Wood&#8217;s flagship fund, ARKK, recorded its best month since inception, driven primarily by a rally in crypto-related companies and tech startups.</li>
<li>Spear Alpha ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPRX#NASDAQ">SPRX</a>) up 22.87%: SPRX also showed significant gains, benefiting from the overall positive market sentiment towards tech stocks. </li>
<li>Amplify Thematic All-Stars ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MVSP#NYSE">MVSP</a>) up 18.8%</li>
</ol>
Chart: November 2023 Was Cathie Wood&#8217;s ARKK ETF Best Performing Month Ever 
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="723" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/30165614/ARKK_2023-11-30_20-55-33_baabf-1024x723.png" alt="" class="wp-image-153400" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/30165614/ARKK_2023-11-30_20-55-33_baabf-1024x723.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/30165614/ARKK_2023-11-30_20-55-33_baabf-300x212.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/30165614/ARKK_2023-11-30_20-55-33_baabf-768x542.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/30165614/ARKK_2023-11-30_20-55-33_baabf.png 1530w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Best Fixed-Income ETFs In November</h2>
<ol>
<li>PIMCO 25 Year Zero Coupon U.S. Treasury Index ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ZROZ#NYSE">ZROZ</a>) up 14%: The decline in long-dated Treasury yields fueled a rally in the fixed-income duration. November 2023 was the strongest month for this portion of the bond market since August 2019, and the second best one since January 2015. </li>
<li>iShares 25 Year STRIPS Bond ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOVZ#NYSE">GOVZ</a>) up 13.3%</li>
<li>Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EDV#NYSE">EDV</a>) up 12.5%</li>
</ol>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Best Commodity ETFs In November</h2>
<ol>
<li>iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>) up 10.3%: Precious metals, particularly silver, saw a sharp rally thanks to the decline in long-term Treasury yields and a weaker U.S. dollar.</li>
<li>United States Copper Index Fund ETV (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CPER#NYSE">CPER</a>) up 5.2%: Copper also saw gains, influenced by the softer dollar.</li>
<li>Teucrium Soybean Fund ETV (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SOYB#NYSE">SOYB</a>) up 3.5%</li>
</ol>
Read Now: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/mid-cap/23/11/36008708/cathie-woods-ark-innovation-etf-achieves-35-gain-in-november-its-best-month-since-inception">Cathie Wood&#8217;s ARK Innovation ETF Achieves 35% Gain In November, Its Best Month Since Inception</a>

Sector ETFs

Broad U.S. Equity ETFs

Emerging Market ETFs

ARGT

ARKK

CPER

iShares MSCI Israel Capped Investable Market Index Fund

iShares 25+ Year Treasury STRIPS Bond ETF

GOVZ

MVSP

SOYB

SPRX

XLRE

This Month's Top-Performing ETFs: Politics, Fed Rate Cut Hopes Ignite 30%-Plus Rally In These 2 Funds

A week filled with significant events impacting the markets culminated in an unexpectedly strong <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/calendars/economic">September jobs report</a>.
Government Shutdown Averted; House Ousts McCarthy: The U.S. Congress managed to avoid a dramatic government shutdown just hours before the midnight deadline Oct. 1 by passing <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/23/09/35019457/government-shutdown-avoided-congress-acts-just-in-time">a stopgap funding bill.</a> This bill ensures the continuation of government operations through Nov. 17, excluding new funding for border security and Ukraine. On Tuesday, the House of Representatives made a historic decision to <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/politics/23/10/35074882/kevin-mccarthys-leadership-ends-in-historic-house-vote-amid-gop-discord">oust Speaker Kevin McCarthy</a>, following a motion initiated by Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) in response to McCarthy&#8217;s collaboration with Democrats to prevent a government shutdown. 
Treasury Yields Surge, Bond Market Turmoil Persists: Throughout the week, yields across the Treasury curve continued to rise. The 10-year Treasury yield surged past 4.75%, reaching its highest level in 16 years. On Friday, the 30-year yield crossed the 5% threshold, driven by a jobs <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/23/10/35126781/markets-go-haywire-as-us-payrolls-defy-gravity-30-year-yields-soar-to-5-dollar-ra">report that exceeded expectations</a>. Funds and ETFs investing in long-dated Treasury bonds such as the PIMCO 25 Year Zero Coupon U.S. Treasury Index Exchange-Traded Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ZROZ#NYSE">ZROZ</a>) or the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) have now lost more than 50% of their value since March 2020.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" width="1024" height="506" src="https://s3.amazonaws.com/editorial.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/06153438/ZROZ_2023-10-06_20-34-23_1d41e-1024x506.png" alt="" class="wp-image-119673" srcset="https://s3.amazonaws.com/editorial.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/06153438/ZROZ_2023-10-06_20-34-23_1d41e-1024x506.png 1024w,https://s3.amazonaws.com/editorial.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/06153438/ZROZ_2023-10-06_20-34-23_1d41e-300x148.png 300w,https://s3.amazonaws.com/editorial.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/06153438/ZROZ_2023-10-06_20-34-23_1d41e-768x380.png 768w,https://s3.amazonaws.com/editorial.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/06153438/ZROZ_2023-10-06_20-34-23_1d41e-1536x759.png 1536w,https://s3.amazonaws.com/editorial.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/06153438/ZROZ_2023-10-06_20-34-23_1d41e.png 1920w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
Non-Farm Payrolls Significantly Exceed Estimates, Indicating Strong Labor Market: The September jobs report showed stronger-than-anticipated employment growth. Non-farm payrolls increased by 337,000 last month, marking the largest monthly gain since January and far <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/23/10/35125144/us-labor-market-strength-continues-september-nonfarm-payrolls-soar-to-336-000-far">surpassing the expected 170,000</a>. August NFPs were revised upward to 227,000, indicating a robust pace of hiring throughout late summer. As a result of the impressive jobs number, economists now see rising risks of further Federal <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/23/10/35128961/economists-reassess-feds-next-moves-after-septembers-stunning-job-numbers">Reserve tightening this quarter.</a>
Walmart Reports Slight Decrease In Food Demand Due To Weight-Loss Drugs: On the consumer front, Walmart <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/biotech/23/10/35100939/walmart-reports-slight-pullback-in-food-demand-as-miracle-weight-loss-drug-ozempic-gains-populari">reported a decrease in shopping demand</a> attributed to the use of weight-loss and appetite-suppressing drugs such as Ozempic and Wegovy, manufactured by Novo Nordisk A/S (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVO#NYSE">NVO</a>). Shares of beverage giants like The Coca-Cola Company (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/KO#NYSE">KO</a>) and PepsiCo Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PEP#NYSE">PEP</a>) had their worst-performing week since May 2022.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" width="1024" height="611" src="https://s3.amazonaws.com/editorial.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/06153332/PEP_2023-10-06_20-19-30_8fd84-1-1024x611.png" alt="" class="wp-image-119672" srcset="https://s3.amazonaws.com/editorial.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/06153332/PEP_2023-10-06_20-19-30_8fd84-1-1024x611.png 1024w,https://s3.amazonaws.com/editorial.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/06153332/PEP_2023-10-06_20-19-30_8fd84-1-300x179.png 300w,https://s3.amazonaws.com/editorial.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/06153332/PEP_2023-10-06_20-19-30_8fd84-1-768x459.png 768w,https://s3.amazonaws.com/editorial.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/06153332/PEP_2023-10-06_20-19-30_8fd84-1-1536x917.png 1536w,https://s3.amazonaws.com/editorial.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/06153332/PEP_2023-10-06_20-19-30_8fd84-1.png 1809w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
Exxon Mobil Eyes Acquisition Of Pioneer Natural Resources: Oil giant Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE XOM) is considering acquiring Pioneer Natural Resources Company (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PXD#NYSE">PXD</a>) to strengthen its position in the U.S. energy sector. The potential agreement could be valued at up to $60 billion, potentially making it the largest takeover in the world this year. Shares of the target company, Pioneer, rose by as much <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/large-cap/23/10/35127573/exxon-mobil-pioneer-natural-resources-on-cusp-of-mega-deal-shares-react">as 10% on Friday.</a>
Market Highlights: The S&amp;P 500, tracked by the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>), rebounded from four consecutive weeks of declines. Similarly, the Nasdaq 100, monitored via the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>), posted weekly gains and recorded its strongest session since late August on Friday.
Notable sectors that displayed strength this week included the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLK#NYSE">XLK</a>), which rose by 3%, the Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLC#NYSE">XLC</a>), gaining 2.1%, and the Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLV#NYSE">XLV</a>), which registered a 1.1% increase.
Among the mega-cap stocks in the S&amp;P 100, top performers for the week included Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>) (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOGL#NASDAQ">GOOGL</a>), Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>), Eli Lilly &amp; Company (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/LLY#NYSE">LLY</a>), and Meta Platforms Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>), all of which posted gains exceeding 5%. NextEra Energy Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NEE#NYSE">NEE</a>) was the laggard, down over 12% for the week. 
What to Watch in the Week Ahead: All eyes are on the Consumer Price Index report for September set to be released on Thursday. This report will mark the last crucial piece of economic data ahead of the Nov. 1 Fed meeting. Economists predict that the annual inflation rate will slightly ease from 3.7% to 3.6% in September, and core inflation is expected to fall from 4.3% to 4.1% on a year-over-year basis.&nbsp;
Other relevant economic releases include the Producer Price Index report on Wednesday, where a monthly decline from 0.7% to 0.3% is expected, and the Michigan Consumer Sentiment estimate for October on Friday.
On the earnings front, PepsiCo will report on Tuesday, while Thursday will feature Infosys Limited (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/INFY#NYSE">INFY</a>), Fastenal (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FAST#NASDAQ">FAST</a>), Delta Air Lines (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DAL#NYSE">DAL</a>), Walgreens Boots Alliance (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/WBA#NASDAQ">WBA</a>), and Domino&#8217;s Pizza (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DPZ#NYSE">DPZ</a>). Some major financial institutions will report Friday, include JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/JPM#NYSE">JPM</a>), BlackRock (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BLK#NYSE">BLK</a>), Citigroup (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/C#NYSE">C</a>), Wells Fargo (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/WFC#NYSE">WFC</a>), PNC Financial Services (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PNC#NYSE">PNC</a>), along with UnitedHealth Group (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UNH#NYSE">UNH</a>), and The Progressive Corp (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PGR#NYSE">PGR</a>).
Read now: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/23/10/35128236/exclusive-tim-draper-on-artificial-intelligence-bitcoin-his-best-investment-return">EXCLUSIVE: Tim Draper On Artificial Intelligence, Bitcoin, His Best Investment Return</a>
Photo via Shutterstock.

Equities

Rumors

Asset Sales

Management

Stock Split

Tech

FAST

GOOG

GOOGL

INFY

NVDA

Shutdown Averted, Treasury Yields Flirt With 5%, Strong Payrolls Add to Fed Tightening Risk: The Week In The Markets

In the pre-pandemic era, bond investments were largely the domain of institutional funds, shielded from the hustle and bustle of <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/interest-rates">the retail-trading world.</a>
And who could blame them. Fixed-income portfolio managers and analysts faced the Herculean task of seeking returns in a global environment characterized by rock-bottom or even negative interest rates. 
Often, they considered themselves fortunate to eke out meager basis points in gains. During this period, pension funds and money-market vehicles were in a frantic search for minimal returns. 
The boldest investors ventured into uncharted waters, hunting for yields in high-risk emerging markets, all too often subjecting themselves to wild bouts of volatility.
By the end of 2020, the yield to maturity on an Austrian government&#8217;s 100-year bond had dwindled to a mere 0.4%. Meaning, an investment in this security would have only gotten a nominal 0.4% annual return over the next century. 
As central banks worldwide unveiled unprecedented stimulus measures to rescue the global economy from the pandemic&#8217;s clutches, the market value of negative-yield bonds soared to an astonishing $18.4 trillion by late 2020. 
Fast-forward to the end of July 2023, this figure had plummeted to a meager $1.3 trillion, as per <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-08-01/global-pile-of-negative-yield-debt-driven-toward-zero-by-boj?embedded-checkout=true&amp;sref=TBDibEcD">Bloomberg </a>data, marking a spectacular sell-off that reverberated through many fixed-income funds and triggered a widespread devaluation of bonds across the globe. That figure could now be even lower given the latest Treasury rout. 
Remarkably, the same Austrian secular bond now offers a yield of 3%, but its value has plummeted by more than 85% since its 2020 peak. 
Closer to home, the market value of a generic 30-year Treasury bond has wiped out more than half of its value since reaching its zenith in March 2020. 
Also Read: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/23/10/35110568/us-economy-at-crossroads-mohamed-el-erian-flags-stagflation-risk-cautions-on-recession-threat-for-20">US Economy At Crossroads: Mohamed El-Erian Flags Stagflation Risk, Cautions On Recession Threat For 2024</a>
Chart: Long-Maturity Bonds Experience Carnage After Pandemic
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" width="1024" height="737" src="https://s3.amazonaws.com/editorial.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/05134140/AT100_2023-10-05_18-41-24_0f333-1024x737.png" alt="" class="wp-image-118789" srcset="https://s3.amazonaws.com/editorial.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/05134140/AT100_2023-10-05_18-41-24_0f333-1024x737.png 1024w,https://s3.amazonaws.com/editorial.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/05134140/AT100_2023-10-05_18-41-24_0f333-300x216.png 300w,https://s3.amazonaws.com/editorial.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/05134140/AT100_2023-10-05_18-41-24_0f333-768x553.png 768w,https://s3.amazonaws.com/editorial.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/05134140/AT100_2023-10-05_18-41-24_0f333.png 1501w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Retail Traders Jump On The Bond Market Bandwagon</h2>
These seismic tremors in the bond market have served as a stark reminder of how even seemingly impregnable assets can succumb to volatility in a world grappling with rising interest rates and inflation.
But apart from that, they have also given birth to a new phenomenon: the entry of retail traders into the fixed-income arena.
In recent times, discussions surrounding economic variables and bond-related assets have surged within popular retail trader communities on social media platforms. 
Tom Bruni, a senior writer at Stocktwits, shared insights during an exclusive interview with Benzinga, remarking that much of the discourse revolves around the broader macroeconomic picture.
Retail traders have come to realize that summer has brought not directionality but volatility beneath the surface, piquing their curiosity about global macroeconomic developments.
The realization that the risk-free rate now hovers around 5% is resonating not only on Wall Street but also in retail traders&#8217; circles.
Bruni further shed light on the growing interest in bond-linked Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) on Stocktwits. 
Retail traders have been swiftly adding Treasury-related funds, such as the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NYSE">TLT</a>) and the PIMCO 25 Year Zero Coupon U.S. Treasury Index Exchange-Traded Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ZROZ#NYSE">ZROZ</a>), to their watchlists.
According to Stocktwits data, the median daily message volume referencing $TLT has surged by 156% compared to the previous year. In the final week of September, there was a remarkable surge in daily message volume, marking the highest point seen all year, and the first week of October is currently tracking to match this heightened activity.
&#8220;The number of users with $TLT on their watchlist has grown 16% year-on-year to 20,637,&#8221; Bruni said. 
To capitalize on the potential for even more substantial gains during this period of heightened bond market volatility, they have become increasingly familiar with Treasury-leveraged ETFs, including the ProShares UltraShort Lehman 20 Year Treasury (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TBT#NYSE">TBT</a>) and the Direxion Daily 20-YR Treasury Bull 3x Shrs (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TMF#NYSE">TMF</a>).
Now Read: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/23/10/35113287/how-the-january-effect-could-spark-tech-stock-renaissance-in-october-q4">How The &#8216;January Effect&#8217; Could Spark Tech Stock Renaissance In October, Q4</a>
Photo: Shutterstock

ProShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Year Treasury

Retail Investors Dive Into Bond Market Wave: Treasury ETFs Attract Interest Amid Stock-Like Volatility

Wall Street suffered its worst week in more than two years with a trade war brewing between the United States and China &mdash; the world&#39;s two biggest economies. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&amp;P 500 tumbled 5.7% and 5.9%, respectively, last week while the Nasdaq Composite Index shed 6.5%.
	Market Impact
	The latest turmoil has sent eight of the 11 S&amp;P 500 sectors into correction territory (decline of at least 10% from the latest peak). Technology, the hot and soaring sector of this year, was the worst performer plunging 7.9% last week as it was caught in a twin attack of the Facebook data scandal and its large foreign operations. Most of the tech companies do business outside the United States and are highly vulnerable to trade disputes.
	While all the tech ETFs saw terrible trading last week, Guggenheim China Technology ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/cqqq#NYSE">CQQQ</a>) and iShares Dow Jones US Technology ETF&nbsp;(NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/iyw#NYSE">IYW</a>) stole the show, tumbling more than 8%.
	Banking stocks also saw steep declines as interest rates plummeted, reversing all their gains made earlier last week. This is because investors who feared a trade war took flight to safety, pushing yields down. The 10-year Treasury yields slipped to a six-week low of 2.792% from 2.83% but ended the week at 2.81%. As such, First Trust Nasdaq Bank ETF&nbsp;(NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/ftxo#NASDAQ">FTXO</a>) and PowerShares KBW Regional Banking Portfolio&nbsp;(NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/kbwr#NASDAQ">KBWR</a>) were the worst hit, losing more than 8.2% last week.
	If the tariff and counter-tariff situation worsens, the Fed could adopt a slow and steady path for rate hike intensifying worry for the banks and the related ETFs.&nbsp; &nbsp;
	Mega cap ETFs, which comprise stocks that derive most of their revenues outside the United States and are prone to trade war risk, also saw tumultuous trading last week with Guggenheim S&amp;P 500 Top 50 ETF&nbsp;(NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/xlg#NYSE">XLG</a>) and iShares S&amp;P 100 ETF&nbsp;(NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/oef#NYSE">OEF</a>) declining 6.8%.
	Winners
Gold surged 2.6% last week, marking its biggest weekly gain since September 2017, boosted by investors&#39; drive to safe haven assets. Acting as leveraged plays on underlying metal price, gold miners witnessed more gains than their bullion cousins. That said, Sprott Junior Gold Miners ETF&nbsp;(NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/sgdj#NYSE">SGDJ</a>) has emerged as a huge winner of the prevailing trade war tension, gaining 7.3% last week.
	The trade war threats have also raised the appeal of the U.S. government bonds tracking the long end of the yield curve. Vanguard Long-Term Government Bond ETF&nbsp;(NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/vglt#NASDAQ">VGLT</a>) and PIMCO 25+ Year Zero Coupon U.S. Treasury Index ETF&nbsp;(NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/zroz#NYSE">ZROZ</a>) were in the green with 0.4% gains, recouping all the losses made early last week from Fed rate hikes. However, the two funds currently have a Zacks ETF Rank #4 (Sell), suggesting that trade war fears could turn the fate of these products, which often carry a safe haven status.&nbsp; &nbsp;
	Though the small-cap stocks have been the victim of the broad-market sell-off, they hold up much better than the larger ones. This is because small-cap stocks have less international exposure and generate most of their revenues from the domestic market. These pint-sized stocks are less vulnerable to a trade war or any other political issues and could better insulate investors&#39; against retaliation if occurs. Franklin LibertyQ U.S. Small Cap Equity ETF&nbsp;(BATS:FLQS) was the winner in the small-cap space last week, having gained 2.7%.&nbsp;

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Wall Street Sees Worst Week In 2 Years: ETF Winners And Losers

The Fed may have enacted three rate hikes this year but geopolitics and mixed U.S. economic readings have kept U.S. Treasury yields at check.&nbsp;U.S. benchmark Treasury bond yields have hovered in the range of 2.05% to 2.62% this year (as of Dec 27, 2017), with an average of 2.33%.
Trump&#39;s policy uncertainty in the middle of the year and Fed minutes, which showed policymakers&#39; suspicion about subdued inflation, probably led to this move in the fixed income market. Though the economy picked up pace in the fourth quarter, President Trump passed the tax reform agenda and the Fed enacted its final hike, average bond yields (2.37%) did not shoot up materially.&nbsp;
This was because, with Fed officials sticking to their outlook for three more rate hikes in 2018 despite speeding economic growth, there is no spark in the guidance either. In fact, an air of dovishness was prevalent. The median Fed funds rate for this year and the next were unchanged (read: <a href="https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/286001/etf-winners-amp-losers-post-partly-dovish-fed-meet">ETF Winners &amp; Losers Post Partly Dovish Fed Meet</a>).
As a result, bond funds returned decently in 2017. PIMCO 25+ Year Zero Coupon US Treasury ETF ZROZ returned about 12% this year against 19.6% returns in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF SPY.
However, there are several international bond ETFs that offered great returns during this time frame. Since most of the developed economies are still practicing a low interest rate policy, international bonds got a chance to roar even higher. Against this backdrop, below we highlight a few top-performing bond ETFs.
iShares International High Yield Bond ETF HYXU &ndash; Up 17.8%
The underlying Markit iBoxx Global Developed Markets ex-US High Yield Index is a rules-based one, consisting of high yield corporate bonds denominated in Euros, British pounds sterling and Canadian dollars. The index is designed to provide a broad representation of the global ex-U.S. dollar high yield corporate bond market. The fund charges 40 bps in fees.
SPDR Bloomberg Barclays International Corp Bond ETF IBND &ndash; Up 13.5%
The 618-security fund looks to provide broad exposure to the global investment grade, fixed rate, fixed income corporate markets outside the United States. The fund charges 50 bps in fees. Average maturity in years is 6.61, while adjusted duration is 5.82 years.&nbsp;
PowerShares International Corp Bond ETF PICB &ndash; Up 11.3%
The underlying index measures the performance of investment grade corporate bonds issued by non-U.S. issuers. The 411-stock fund charges 50 bps in fees. Years to Maturity of the fund is 9.32 and effective duration is 7.31 years.
SPDR Bloomberg Barclays Emerging Markets Local Bond ETF EBND &ndash; Up 11.1%
The underlying index &ndash; the Bloomberg Barclays EM Local Currency Government Diversified Index &ndash; is designed to measure the performance of the fixed-rate local currency sovereign debt of emerging market countries. The fund looks to offer exposure to fixed-rate local currency sovereign debt of emerging market countries. It charges 40 bps in fees. Average maturity of the fund is 7.36 years and adjusted duration is 5.29 years.
VanEck Vectors JP Morgan EM Local Bond ETF EMLC &ndash; Up 7.5% 
The fund comprises 266 bonds issued by emerging market governments and denominated in the local currency of the issuer. The fund charges 44 bps in fees. Years to Maturity of the fund is 7.65 and effective duration is 5.10 years. The fund yields about 5.34% annually (as of Dec 27, 2017) (read: <a href="https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/271415/em-etfs-what-you-need-to-know-before-investing">EM ETFs: What You Need to Know Before Investing</a>).
<img alt="" src="https://staticx-tuner.zacks.com/images/zadmin_tuner_image/bond etfs chart.jpg" style="width: 620px; height: 166px;" />

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5 Best Bond ETFs Of 2017

In an upset of epic proportions, Republican nominee Donald Trump is now president elect after defeating Democratic rival Hillary Clinton.
<h3>Volatility And Victory</h3>
As Election Day turned to Election Night with the contest shaping up to be closer than recent polling data suggested, global financial markets tumbled, confirming that a broad range of asset classes would react negatively to a Trump victory. Leading up to the election, there was no shortage of speculation assets, regions and sectors that <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/16/10/8518160/this-etf-really-doesnt-want-donald-trump-to-win">could bemoan a Trump victory</a>.
Markets reflected as much Tuesday night, with U.S. equity futures tumbling, Asian markets getting crushed and the dollar sliding. Dollar weakness reminds investors gold and exchange-traded funds such as the SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/gld#NYSE">GLD</a>) offer upside potential in the coming days.
<h3>Gold's Bull Case</h3>
Adding to the bull case for gold is the potential for more dollar erosion as investors and traders now come to grips with the notion that bets may now be off for the Federal Reserve boosting interest rates in December. Investors have plunked down more than $40 million into the PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/uup#NYSE">UUP</a>), the U.S. Dollar Index-tracking ETF, over the past month, <a href="https://www.invesco.com/portal/site/us/financial-professional/etfs/tools/flow-trend-tracker">according to PowerShares data</a>.
However, with a rate hike most likely no longer imminent, UUP&#39;s bearish cousin, the PowerShares DB US $ Index (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/udn#NYSE">UDN</a>) could be poised to benefit if the greenback enters a prolonged slump.
<h3>Fixed-Income ETfs</h3>
Keeping with the theme of the Fed not hiking rates in the wake of Trump&#39;s victory, obvious fixed-income ETF beneficiaries include long-dated bond funds such as the ProShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Yr(ETF) (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/tbt#NYSE">TBT</a>).
Investors with a taste more rate-sensitive bond ETF may want to consider the PIMCO 25 Yr Zro Cupn US Ty Inx Fd ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/zroz#NYSE">ZROZ</a>) and the Vanguard Extended Duration ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/edv#NYSE">EDV</a>).
Highly sensitive to interest rates, &ldquo;zero-coupon bonds often sell at a sizable discount to face value because buyers do not get a steady stream of income as they do with traditional bonds. As zero-coupon Treasurys get close to maturity, their values increase with buy-and-hold investors getting the full value of the bond when it matures,&rdquo; according to <a href="http://www.etftrends.com/2016/07/investors-make-a-fed-bet-with-this-etf/">ETF Trends</a>. 
Trump&#39;s victory may be handcuffing the Fed when it comes to raising rates this year, in turn increasing the allure of ETFs like EDV and ZROZ.
<h3>Bellwether Coal</h3>
An industry ETF to consider is the Market Vectors-Coal ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/kol#NYSE">KOL</a>). KOL has, quite miraculously, more than doubled this year even as Clinton looked strong and levied harsh rhetoric against the coal industry. That rhetoric proved costly as Trump carried most of the major coal-producing states, including becoming the first Republican since 1988 to win Pennsylvania.
Perhaps KOL was a legitimate Trump indicator that few acknowledged. It will be interesting to see if the coal ETF can keep rising now that its preferred candidate is the next U.S. president.

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PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bearish Fund

These ETFs Should Enjoy Trump's Victory

After briefly touching a new intra-day high this week, the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/spy#NYSE">SPY</a>) fell back below its 50-day moving average and has once again inserted itself into a broad trading range. Investors are likely feeling frustrated this year with the bifurcated nature of the markets that has seen growth sectors soar, while value names collapse.

	Perhaps the strongest sector this week was the Consumer Discretionary SPDR (ETF) (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/xly#NYSE">XLY</a>), which added to gains on the back of strong quarterly results from Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/amzn#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>) and Starbucks Corporation (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/sbux#NASDAQ">SBUX</a>). This all-important gauge of consumer activity is showing no signs of slowing down this year after hitting new highs.

	The following ETFs represent a sample of the best- and worst-performing funds over the last five trading sessions.
<h3>BEST: Long Duration Treasury Bonds</h3>


	One of the best performing asset classes this week was long-duration Treasury bonds, as a flight to quality sent interest rates markedly lower. The PIMCO 25 Yr Zro Cupn US Ty Inx Fd ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/zroz#NYSE">ZROZ</a>) gained nearly 4 percent since last Friday&rsquo;s close.
<bzrelatedlink>Related Link: <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/etfs/sector-etfs/15/07/5698976/airline-etf-seeks-to-overcome-transportation-sector-woes">Airline ETF Seeks To Overcome Transportation Sector Woes</a></bzrelatedlink>
	This exchange-traded fund tracks a basket of 20 zero-coupon Treasury bonds with an effective duration of 37.26 years. ZROZ has one of the highest sensitivities to long-term interest rates of any fixed-income ETF, which makes it a preferred method of betting against Treasury yields.

	This fund currently has $107 million in total assets and charges an expense ratio of 0.15 percent.
<h3>WORST: Junior Gold Miners</h3>


	The rut in gold prices took its toll on smaller mining companies this week. The SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/gld#NYSE">GLD</a>) fell over 4 percent, which translated to a 14 percent drop in the Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/gdxj#NYSE">GDXJ</a>).

	GDXJ tracks 62 small- and mid-cap gold and silver mining companies. This fund has $1.1 billion in total assets and charges an expense ratio of 0.55 percent.

	Since the start of the year, GDXJ has dropped over 24 percent to hit new multi-year lows and has yet to show any convincing signs of a bottom in place. Most investors won&rsquo;t be shocked by the extension of this long-term downtrend and sentiment appears to be firmly seated in the bear camp for the time being.
Image Credit: <a href="https://pixabay.com/en/opposites-thumb-positive-negative-489521/">Public Domain</a>

AMZN

GDXJ

SBUX

Select Sector SPDR-Consumer Discretionary

Best And Worst ETFs Of The Week Amid Consumer Discretionary Strength

The stock market posted tepid declines this week amid choppy trading that saw prices whipsaw in both directions. The SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/spy#NYSE">SPY</a>) finished the month of May with gains of less than 2 percent and will now face the tumultuous summer months that have traders on edge.
The <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/15/05/5535863/what-etf-is-winning-from-chinas-small-cap-frenzy">CBOE VIX Volatility Index</a> has hit its lowest level of the year, which seemed to prompt a return of nervous energy in the markets. As a result, Treasury bonds were the recipients of buying activity as fears over a Federal Reserve rate hike failed to overcome weaker than expected economic data.

	The following ETFs represent a sample of the best- and worst-performing funds over the last five trading sessions.
<h3>BEST: Long-Term Treasury Bonds</h3>


	Treasury yields at the long end of the interest rate curve fell significantly last week, which sent the PIMCO 25 Yr Zro Cupn US Ty Inx Fd ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/zroz#NYSE">ZROZ</a>) over 4.5 percent higher. This ETF invests in a basket of long-duration U.S. Treasury STRIPS that are extremely sensitive to interest rate fluctuations.

	The effective duration of ZROZ is 27 years, making it an even stronger direct bet on rising Treasury bond prices than the venerable iShares Barclays 20+ Yr Treas.Bond (ETF) (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/tlt#NYSE">TLT</a>). ZROZ currently has over $115 million in total assets, charges an expense ratio of 0.15 percent and was one of the best performing ETFs of 2014.
<bzrelatedlink>Related Link: <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/15/05/5515844/best-and-worst-etfs-of-the-week-amid-new-all-time-highs">Best And Worst ETFs Of The Week Amid New All-Time Highs</a></bzrelatedlink>
<h3>WORST: Natural Gas Futures</h3>


	After attempting a rally near the beginning of the month, <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/topic/natural-gas">natural gas</a> futures prices have once again rolled over. This sent the iPath Bloomberg Natural Gas Subindex Total Return ETN (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/gaz#NYSE">GAZ</a>) down more than 16 percent this week.

	GAZ tracks an unleveraged basket of natural gas futures contracts through an exchange-traded note structure. This <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/topic/etn">ETN</a> has $11.6 million in total assets and charges an expense ratio of 0.75 percent.

	Natural gas prices have continued to display deflationary pressures that many commodity-related markets have felt over the last year. Another fund heavily affected by this trend is the United States Natural Gas Fund, LP (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/ung#NYSE">UNG</a>), which dropped nearly 10 percent this week.
Image Credit: <a href="http://pixabay.com/en/opposites-thumb-positive-negative-489521/">Public Domain</a>

Best And Worst ETFs Of The Week Amid Treasury Buying Spree

The earnings calendar was chocked full of surprises this week, as both positive and negative announcements were made from a wide array of large-cap stocks. Companies such as Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/msft#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>), Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/aapl#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>), and Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/amzn#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>) played a significant role in shaping the ups and downs in price action over the last several days.

	The SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/spy#NYSE">SPY</a>) finished the month of January in the red after several pronounced price swings in both directions. Long-term treasury bonds, on the other hand, were buoyed to new multi-year highs over fears of deflationary signals in both stocks and commodities.

	The following ETFs represent a sample of the best- and worst-performing funds over the last five trading sessions.
<h3>
	BEST: Fear and Safety Trades</h3>

	On a down week in the markets, it&rsquo;s no surprise to see VIX-related indexes such as the&nbsp;iPath S&amp;P 500 VIX Short Term Futures ETN (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/vxx#NYSE">VXX</a>) trading more than 14 percent higher.&nbsp;

	However, a more notable development is the continued flight to quality in treasury bonds that has pushed the 30-year U.S. bond yield down to a <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/102383485">fresh record low</a> of 2.226 percent. A beneficiary of this collapse in yields has been the PIMCO 25+ Year Zero Coupon U.S. Treasury Index ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/zroz#NYSE">ZROZ</a>), which gained over 4 percent this week.

	ZROZ was the best-performing bond fund of 2014 because of its focus on the highest duration U.S. treasury securities.
<h3>
	WORST: Greek Stocks</h3>

	Companies listed on the Athens Stock Exchange endured a tumultuous week with the election of a new political party that sent equities reeling. The Global X FTSE Greece 20 ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/grek#NYSE">GREK</a>) lost more than 19 percent of its value over the last five trading days.

	GREK is heavily weighted towards the financial sector, with 37 percent of its holdings. The economic woes of this troubled European nation have put many debt-ridden institutions under pressure this week. This may lead to additional bailouts and further reforms from other sovereign nations such as Germany as they struggle to resurrect financial stability.

AAPL

GREK

MSFT

Barclays Bank iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN

Best And Worst ETFs Of The Week Amid Earnings Deluge

With just a handful of trading days left in 2014, the race for the best performing fixed-income ETF of the year has virtually been decided.

	The interest rate environment this year has been one of persistent decline that has defied the odds of economists and central bankers that feared higher <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/topic/treasury">Treasury yields</a>. The biggest beneficiaries of this decline have been on the long end of the yield curve, which was recently sitting near its lowest levels of 2014.

	The ETF that was able to most successfully capture this sharp drop in interest rates is the PIMCO 25 Yr Zro Cupn US Ty Inx Fd ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/zroz#NYSE">ZROZ</a>). ZROZ has gained a whopping 43 percent year-to-date.

	<bzrelatedlink>Related Link: <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/14/12/5098397/emerging-market-bond-oil-and-healthcare-etfs-to-watch-this-we">Emerging Market Bond, Oil And Healthcare ETFs To Watch</a></bzrelatedlink>
<h3>
	PIMCO 25 Year Zero Coupon U.S. Treasury</h3>

	ZROZ has benefited from having the highest effective duration of any ETF in the marketplace at 29 years. This makes it extremely sensitive to long-term interest rate fluctuations. In effect, ZROZ is a pure directional bet on a falling interest rate environment.
<div id="preview-wrapper">
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		<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/imce?app=nomatter%7Cimceload%40imceInline.load#" title=""><img alt="zroz.png" height="284" src="https://www.benzinga.com/files/u79448/zroz.png" width="460" /></a></div>
</div>

	The high sensitivity to interest rates may be one reason why this fund has an understated asset total of just $92 million. ZROZ has just 21 underlying holdings, a 30-day SEC yield of 2.78 percent and a low expense ratio of 0.15 percent.
<h3>
	Comparison To Broad-Based Basket, AGG</h3>

	Its returns, however, have far exceeded a broad-based basket of fixed-income in the iShares Barclays Aggregate Bond Fund (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/agg#NYSE">AGG</a>). This total bond ETF has gained 3.6 percent in 2014. AGG invests in a wide spectrum of treasury, mortgage and investment-grade corporate bonds with an overall effective duration of five years.
<h3>
	Runner Up: EDV</h3>

	Runner up in the fixed-income category for 2014 is the Vanguard Extended Duration ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/edv#NYSE">EDV</a>), which has posted a gain of more 38 percent. EDV implements a similar portfolio of ultra-long duration zero-coupon Treasury securities with an average maturity of 25 years.

	While these ETFs set the bond world on fire in 2014, it remains to be seen whether a potential Fed rate hike next year will negatively impact these holdings. A new year will bring fresh opportunities and risks for <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/topic/fixed-income-investors">fixed-income investors</a> to navigate.

The Best Bond ETF Of 2014

A relatively new Bond ETF issued by Pimco called the 25+ Year Zero Coupon Bond (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/zroz#NYSE">ZROZ</a>) offers some unique advantages for the trader or the investor looking to hedge the equity portion of their portfolio. 
Pimco's ZROZ is the only ETF of its kind on the market and holds only long dated (25+ year maturity) zero coupon bonds. These bonds of course, as the name implies, issue no coupon payments during the life of the bond, but rather are issued at a steep discount. 
This means the duration of the bond equals its maturity. So this ETF carries a duration of around 25 years. Roughly speaking this means a 1% move higher in rates will cause a 25% capital loss on this ETF. Yikes! And of course the opposite is also true (as has been the case in 2010).
For some investors this ‘leverage' could be ideal for the credit risk free/treasury/hedge portion of a portfolio. 
If you are looking for an equity hedge, you get a lot more bang for your buck with ZROZ, as opposed to shorter duration bond ETFs like Ishares 7-10 year treasury (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/ief#NYSE">IEF</a>) or Ishares 1-3 year treasury (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/shy#NYSE">SHY</a>). 
To drive this point home, let's say you had a $100,000 portfolio and were invested 50% in bonds and 50% in equity (each portfolio would hold purely ZROZ, IEF, or SHY as its bond holding). Lets also assume (just to illustrate a point) if rates decreased 1%, signaling economic weakness and slow growth, equities would move down 10%. 
With all portfolios the equity portion would decrease to $45,000 from $50,000. But let's look at the bond portion. The $50,000 invested in SHY would have increased to $50,500 with its 1 year duration. Not near enough to offset the loss on the equity portion. The $50,000 invested in IEF would have grown to $53,500. This gain matches its 7 year duration. This is much better then SHY, but still not quite a full hedge.
But with using ZROZ and its 25 year duration, the original $50,000 is now worth $62,500. This more than offsets the loss on the equities!
In essence you're increasing leverage on the fixed income portion of the portfolio which could free up funds for other investments. Of course this is a very volatile ETF and has a lot of interest rate risk associated with it. Anyone considering ZROZ should use extreme caution and probably use it in conjunction with an offsetting asset position. ZROZ is up 25.3% year to date to $85.93/share. 
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Movers

One Very Risky (But Very Useful) Fixed Income ETF (ZROZ)

PIMCO 25+ Year Zero Coupon U.S. Treasury Index Exchange-Traded Fund

투자자들은 무디스의 신용등급 강등으로 인해 장기 만기 미국 국채 ETF에 수십억 달러를 쏟아 부었다. <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/05/45500872/30-year-treasury-yields-hit-5-what-that-means-for-stocks" target="_blank" rel="noopener">부채 위험이 심화되는 상황</a>에서 이러한 신뢰가 지속될 수 있을지에 대한 새로운 의구심이 제기된다.
ETFdb.com 유동성 데이터에 따르면, 세계 최대 채권형 ETF인 iShares 20년+ 국채 ETF(NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>)에 5월 12일부터 5월 16일 사이에 20억 7000만 달러의 자금이 유입되었다. 이는 2024년 11월 이후 주간 최대 규모이며 2024년 6월 이후 두 번째로 큰 규모다.
다른 장기 국채 ETF도 지난주 주목할 만한 자금 유입을 기록했다.
20년 만기 국채에 3배 레버리지 노출을 제공하는 Direxion Daily 20년 국채 Bull 3x Shares(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TMF#NYSE">TMF</a>)에는 2024년 11월 이후 주간 최대인 4억7000만 달러가 유입되어 장기 금리에 대한 레버리지 강세 베팅이 급증하고 있음을 알렸다.
한편, PIMCO 25년+ 제로 쿠폰 미국 국채 ETF(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ZROZ#NYSE">ZROZ</a>)에는 3,280만 달러가 유입되어 2025년 1월 이후 가장 강력한 주간 자금 유입을 기록했다.
지난 금요일 무디스가 만성 적자, 부채 상환 비용 상승, 감세 및 일자리 법안이 연장될 경우 2035년까지 GDP의 9%에 가까운 적자를 기록할 것이라는 암울한 재정 전망을 이유로 미국 국가 신용등급을 Aaa에서 Aa1로 하향 조정하면서 수요가 급증한 시기가 주목할 만하다.
그럼에도 불구하고 올해 들어 장기 국채 ETF는 유입된 자금보다 유출된 자금이 더 많았다. iShares 20년+ 국채 ETF(NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>)에서는 12억 달러가 유출되어 2020년 이후 2025년이 순유출의 첫 해가 될 가능성이 높다.
<h3>관세 휴전으로 촉발된 낙관론, 경기침체 가능성 감소</h3>
미중 양국이 관세를 유예하고 일단 115%p 인하하기로 합의하면서 위험자산 랠리를 촉발하고 경기침체 위험을 낮추었고, 이에 힘입어 장기 국채로 유입된 자금의 일부가 유입되었을 수 있다.
지난주 경제 분위기는 예상보다 낮은 두 건의 인플레이션 보고서로 인해 리스크온 분위기가 두드러졌고, 금리 안정과 연착륙 가능성을 예상한 투자자들이 국채 시장에서 듀레이션 트레이딩에 다시 진입했다. 일반적으로 장기 채권은 성장 우려가 완화되고 시장에 금리 인하 여지가 있을 때 좋은 성과를 인다.
<h3>무디스의 신용등급 강등으로 긴장감 높아졌지만 패닉은 오지 않아</h3>
신용등급 강등에도 불구하고 시장의 반응은 월요일(19일)에 측정되었다. 월요일 30년 만기 국채 수익률은 잠시 5% 이상으로 치솟았다가 수요가 회복되면서 다시 4.92%로 떨어졌다.
TLT ETF는 0.3% 하락하여 심리가 다소 약화되었지만 패닉 매도는 없었다는 신호를 보냈다.
뱅크오브아메리카의 애널리스트 마크 카바나는 투자 메모에서 "금요일 무디스의 미국 국가 신용등급 강등은 강제 매도로 이어지지는 않을 것"이라며 "하지만 미국 국채 심리를 악화시킬 수 있다"고 말했다.
그러나 월가의 여러 애널리스트들은 신용등급 강등의 즉각적인 영향을 대체로 일축했다.
또한, 바젤 III 자본 기준과 같은 규제 프레임워크는 자본 요건 측면에서 AAA에서 AA- 등급으로 평가된 미국 국채를 계속해서 위험이 없는 것으로 취급하고 있다.
이는 은행과 기관 투자자가 미국 국채를 취급하는 방식에 변화가 없음을 의미하며, 전 세계적으로 담보 및 유동성 수단으로서 국채의 구조적 역할이 강화되고 있음을 의미한다.
현재로서는 듀레이션에 대한 선호도가 그대로 유지되고 있지만, 재정 리스크가 부각되면서 투자자들이 계속 유입될지는 지켜봐야 할 것이다.
사진: Shutterstock
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PIMCO 25 Year Zero Coupon U.S. Treasury Index Exchange-Traded Fund

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에 대한 최신 뉴스 PIMCO 25 Year Zero Coupon U.S. Treasury Index Exchange-Traded Fund (ARCA:ZROZ)

월요일, 5월 19, 2025

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