에 대한 최신 뉴스 ProShares UltraPro QQQ (NASDAQ:TQQQ)

ProShares UltraPro QQQ

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The Fund invests in financial instruments that ProShare Advisors believes, in combination, should produce daily returns consistent with the Daily Target. The Index is designed to measure the performance of 100 of the largest Nasdaq-listed non-financial companies. The Index includes non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq Global Select Market or the Nasdaq Global Market (which include both U.S. and non-U.S. companies). The top 100 companies based on market capitalization are included in the Index. These companies are then weighted based on market capitalization. The Indexs composition and the assigned weights are reevaluated every December, with additional weight adjustments occurring in March, June, and September.

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4월 관세로 인한 매도세로 나스닥 100 지수가 하락하자, 소매 투자자들은 빠른 시장 반등에 베팅해 수십억 달러를 울트라 레버리지 기술 ETF에 투자하면서 위험에 투자했다.

나스닥의 급락 후 반등에 베팅한 소매 투자자들, 레버리지 기술 ETF로 몰려들어

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나스닥 100 지수에 3배 레버리지 노출을 제공하는 ProShares UltraPro QQQ(NASDAQ:TQQQ)는 수요일(18일) 연준 12월 FOMC 회의 이후 약 10.81% 하락한 82.09달러로 마감했다.

나스닥 100 지수 레버리지 ETF(TQQQ), 10% 급락한 이유는?

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연방준비제도(연준)는 다가오는 연방공개시장위원회(FOMC) 회의에서 금리를 인하할 것으로 예상되며, 그 결정은 수요일 동부 표준시 오후 2시에 발표될 예정이다.

연준의 금리 인하 결정이 내려지기 전에 투자자들이 비밀리에 매수한 10가지 ETF

Leveraged exchange-traded funds have been experiencing a significant surge in investor interest lately. This is fueled by a confluence of factors ranging from anticipated interest rate cuts to the booming popularity of artificial intelligence and escalating geopolitical tensions.
What Happened: This growing appetite is driving substantial capital inflows into vehicles like ProShares UltraPro QQQ (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TQQQ#NASDAQ">TQQQ</a>), Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SOXL#NYSE">SOXL</a>), and Select STOXX Europe Aerospace &amp; Defense ETF (BATS:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EUAD#BATS">EUAD</a>).
&#8220;From interest rate speculation to momentum chasing, investors are rapidly reallocating capital toward vehicles that offer amplified exposure — and quicker returns,&#8221; said Eugenia Mykuliak, the founder and executive director of B2PRIME Group, a global financial services provider for institutional and professional clients.
Mykuliak stated the following factors that are responsible for investors&#8217; growing interest in such leveraged ETFs.
<ul>
<li>Anticipation of interest rate cuts is fueling leveraged ETF demand.</li>
<li>Leveraged ETFs as a tool to magnify gains in resilient markets.</li>
<li>Strategic hedging with leveraged ETFs amid tech strength.</li>
<li>Risk-on sentiment and momentum chasing are driving inflows.</li>
<li>Speculative nature and short-term focus in leveraged ETF trading.</li>
<li>AI boom attracting capital to leveraged ETFs with tech exposure.</li>
<li>Geopolitical tensions boosting the defense sector leveraged ETF interest.</li>
</ul>
Here&#8217;s a list of leveraged ETFs and how they have performed.
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Leveraged ETFs</td>
<td>Last Five Days</td>
<td>YTD</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>ProShares UltraPro QQQ (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TQQQ#NASDAQ">TQQQ</a>)</td>
<td>10.14%</td>
<td>-24.42%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SOXL#NYSE">SOXL</a>)</td>
<td>9.47%</td>
<td>-51.97%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Select STOXX Europe Aerospace &amp; Defense ETF (BATS:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EUAD#BATS">EUAD</a>)</td>
<td>6.42%</td>
<td>50.78%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</figure>
See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/market-summary/25/05/45187807/sp-500s-9-day-climb-not-a-recession-signal-argue-analysts-amid-conflicting-research-simply-wrong-lazy-analysis">S&amp;P 500&#8217;s 9-Day Climb Not A Recession Signal, Argue Analysts Amid Conflicting Research: &#8216;Simply Wrong/Lazy Analysis&#8217;</a>
Why It Matters: According to Mykuliak, the current market sentiment, characterized by a &#8220;risk-on behaviour,&#8221; is a significant driver.
She cautions about the speculative nature of some of these investments. &#8220;Short-term mindset is typically about speculation because positions are held for days, not months. So, chasing short-term profits is a speculative approach per se. The rising activity around options and other derivatives of these ETFs could also signal speculative positioning, rather than long-term strategic preparation.&#8221;
Price Action: The SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>), which track the S&amp;P 500 index and Nasdaq 100 index, respectively, fell in premarket on Monday. The SPY was down 0.74% to $562.59, while the QQQ declined 0.89% to $484.50, according to Benzinga Pro data.
Read Next:
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/05/45188341/billionaire-mark-cuban-asks-if-small-businesses-be-ignored-after-trump-redirects-question-on-tariff-relief-for-little-businesses">Billionaire Mark Cuban Asks Should Small Businesses Be &#8216;Ignored&#8217; After Trump Redirects Question On Tariff Relief For &#8216;Little Businesses&#8217;</a></li>
</ul>
Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
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SOXL

Leveraged ETFs Soar As Investors Seek 'Amplified Exposure And Quicker Returns:' Rate Bets, Tech Mania, And Geopolitical Shifts Drive Demand

Shares of ProShares UltraPro QQQ ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TQQQ#NASDAQ">TQQQ</a>) jumped 5.5% to $59.90 during Friday's session, tracking a broad advance in U.S. tech stocks following a stronger-than-expected <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/05/45164558/us-adds-177000-jobs-in-april-topping-forecasts-as-economy-navigates-tariff-impact">April jobs report</a> and robust corporate earnings.
What To Know: The leveraged ETF, which seeks to deliver triple the daily performance of the Nasdaq-100, benefited from tech strength as the index climbed to its highest level since late March. 
Solid employment data fueled optimism, with nonfarm payrolls <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/05/45164558/us-adds-177000-jobs-in-april-topping-forecasts-as-economy-navigates-tariff-impact">rising by 177,000</a>—well above economists' forecasts of 130,000—easing fears of tariff-related hiring slowdowns.
Read Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/05/45173760/whats-going-on-with-roku-stock-friday">What&#8217;s Going On With Roku Stock Friday?</a>
All <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/05/45172683/wall-street-eyes-9th-straight-day-of-gains-apple-falls-as-chinese-sales-disappoint-whats-driving-markets-friday">eleven S&amp;P 500 sectors</a> traded in positive territory, with financials slightly outpacing technology. Still, the Nasdaq's rebound supported outsized gains in growth-oriented funds like TQQQ. Despite Apple's 4% slide on weak China sales, other mega-cap tech names ended the week higher.
Meanwhile, falling Treasury recession odds and a weaker U.S. dollar added tailwinds. Markets also shifted expectations for Fed policy, with bets on a <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/05/45172683/wall-street-eyes-9th-straight-day-of-gains-apple-falls-as-chinese-sales-disappoint-whats-driving-markets-friday">June rate cut receding</a>. The S&amp;P 500 eyed its ninth straight gain—its longest streak in nearly a year.
Read Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/05/45172170/whats-going-on-with-microstrategy-shares">What&#8217;s Going On With MicroStrategy Shares?</a><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/25/03/44312807/why-nasdaq-100-leveraged-etf-tqqq-is-falling"></a><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/25/03/44312807/why-nasdaq-100-leveraged-etf-tqqq-is-falling"></a><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/25/03/44312807/why-nasdaq-100-leveraged-etf-tqqq-is-falling"></a>
According to data from <a href="https://benzinga.grsm.io/register174">Benzinga Pro</a>, TQQQ has a 52-week high of $93.78 and a 52-week low of $35.00.

Nasdaq-100 Leveraged ETF TQQQ Surges 5.5% As Tech Rally, Jobs Data Boost Risk Appetite

As market volatility grew and the Nasdaq 100 approached bear-market status, an intriguing pattern emerged: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/personal-finance/financial-advisors/25/04/44779772/gen-z-and-crypto-how-younger-generations-are-weighing-risk-in-investing">investors bet bigger on risk</a>. 
Outstanding shares in the top 50 leveraged ETFs have risen 20% since April 2, according to Citi Global Markets, cited by Bloomberg. 
The day marked President Donald Trump&#8216;s so-called &#8220;Liberation Day&#8221; declaration, which sparked tariff tensions. Even with the uncertainty, retail traders seem unfazed, piling into the high-adrenaline universe of leveraged exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in a daring attempt to reap outsized returns.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">High Risk, Higher Conviction</h2>
Leveraged ETFs, which derive their returns through derivatives to double, triple, or quadruple an underlying index or asset daily, are experiencing an explosion of popularity. While warning of wipeouts should the market move against the trades, aggressive investors have been attracted to them as the ultimate dip-buying tools.
Nowhere is that sense of optimism stronger than in the following three ETFs that have become default vehicles for the aggressive:
ProShares UltraPro QQQ (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TQQQ#NASDAQ">TQQQ</a>)
<ul>
<li>Leverage: 3x Long Nasdaq-100</li>
<li>The poster child of leveraged dip-buying, TQQQ has attracted around <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs/broad-u-s-equity-etfs/25/04/44824856/retail-traders-rush-into-leveraged-tech-etfs-betting-on-nasdaq-rebound-after-sharp-drop">$7.1 billion in net inflows since mid-February</a>, $3.1 billion of which came in following the tariff announcements in early April. Aimed to triple the daily return of the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100, TQQQ dropped more than 50% earlier this year but has since recovered almost 30% from its April 9 low.</li>
<li>Despite a 45% decline from its February high, the rampant buying indicates increased risk appetite as investors hope for another tech-led recovery.</li>
</ul>
Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3x Shares (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SOXL#NYSE">SOXL</a>)
<ul>
<li>Leverage: 3x Long Semiconductor Index</li>
<li>While the semiconductor industry rides another bumpy cycle, investors are piling into SOXL in hopes that AI demand and supply chain normalization will reignite chip stocks. The ETF brought in $1.8 billion last week alone, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-17/day-traders-refuse-to-give-up-favorite-obsession-leveraged-funds?sref=TBDibEcD">per </a>Bloomberg.</li>
<li>SOXL is designed to provide three times the daily performance of the PHLX Semiconductor Index. Although this leverage amplifies losses as well as gains, it has not dissuaded investors looking for the next big move higher in Nvidia (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>), AMD (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMD#NASDAQ">AMD</a>), and other semiconductor players.</li>
</ul>
ProShares UltraPro S&amp;P 500 (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UPRO#NYSE">UPRO</a>)
<ul>
<li>Leverage: 3x Long S&amp;P 500</li>
<li>While the Nasdaq gets all the headlines, UPRO provides three times exposure to the broad S&amp;P 500—a good bet for those playing a broad-based rebound. The ETF took in $633 million last week, Bloomberg reported.</li>
<li>Even as the wider S&amp;P slid under the weight of tariffs, investors just kept coming in, indicating that most view the drawdown as a buying opportunity, not as a reason to run.</li>
</ul>
Also Read: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs/new-etfs/25/04/44866215/exclusive-defiance-letting-you-go-2x-long-on-quantum-2x-short-on-ai-straight-from-the-ceo">EXCLUSIVE: Why Defiance Is Letting You Go 2X Long On Quantum, And 2X Short On AI, Straight From The CEO</a>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Volatility As A Feature, Not A Bug</h2>
Despite warnings from figures like hedge fund titan Bill Ackman, who recently decried leveraged funds for &#8220;driving dramatic market moves,&#8221; their popularity remains undiminished. Citi analysts note that while retail volumes broadly dipped, leveraged ETFs were an exception, with six making the top 25 most-traded list on Interactive Brokers.
Demand for leveraged ETFs reflects a change in retail investing psychology: volatility is not something to hedge but profit from.
The increased leveraged ETF inflows during a market retreat say it all. Retail traders, some who got their start during the meme stock boom and the 2022 bear market, are growing more comfortable with high-conviction, high-risk bets.
Though the ride is frightening; TQQQ declined 80% in the previous bear cycle before its record-breaking rally; the reward potential brings traders back for more.
Read Next: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/25/04/44891004/meet-the-key-five-people-who-are-shaping-trumps-economic-agenda">Meet the Key Five People Who Are Shaping Trump&#8217;s Economic Agenda</a></li>
</ul>
Image: Shutterstock

NVDA

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3 High-Risk ETFs Aggressive Retail Investors Can't Stop Buying

As the Nasdaq 100 reeled from April's tariff-driven sell-off, retail traders doubled down on risk rather than retreating, injecting billions into ultra-leveraged tech ETFs in a high-stakes bet on <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets">a swift market rebound.</a>
While the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>) — the world's largest ETF tracking the Nasdaq 100 — pulled in $4.44 billion in inflows last Thursday, marking its biggest single-day influx since March 2021, the real fireworks erupted in the most leveraged corner of the tech market.
The trading activity revealed a bold resurgence of dip-buying appetite, particularly in vehicles designed to magnify returns from the Nasdaq 100 Index. 
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">TQQQ Becomes The Go-To Vehicle For Tech Dip-Buying Mania</h3>
According to ETF.com's senior analyst Sumit Roy, "Nowhere is this phenomenon more obvious than in the ProShares UltraPro QQQ (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TQQQ#NASDAQ">TQQQ</a>), the No. 1 ‘buy-the-dip' target among traders."
Despite plunging 57% from its February high to its early-April trough, traders continued pouring money into the ETF. 
Since Feb. 19, TQQQ has seen $7.1 billion in net inflows—$3.1 billion of which arrived after April 2, the day President Donald Trump reignited trade war fears by announcing new "reciprocal tariffs" on all trading partners.
This surge in interest reflects not just dip-buying behavior, but leveraged dip-buying, underscoring a growing appetite for risk in a market environment defined by geopolitical uncertainty and heightened volatility.
On April 3, the ETF dropped 16%, followed by another 18% loss on April 4. Then, just five days later, it rocketed 35% higher.
From its low on April 9, TQQQ has surged nearly 30%, clawing back losses but still sitting 45% below its February peak. The Nasdaq 100 itself dropped 23% at its worst point during the same stretch.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">History Repeats? Traders Eye 2022-24&#8217;s 477% Rally</h3>
The current setup has echoes of the 2022 bear market. Back then, the Nasdaq 100 tumbled 35% from peak to trough amid aggressive Federal Reserve rate hikes. 
TQQQ lost a staggering 80% during that period—but for those who caught the exact bottom, the rewards were extraordinary. The ETF rallied 477% between its 2022 low and its December 2024 peak.
&#8220;The prospect of that type of massive gain is luring traders to pour money into the ETF,&#8221; said Roy. 
&#8220;Of course, there's no guarantee that things will play out like they did last time. In fact, the only thing you can count on with TQQQ is volatility,&#8221; he added.
Despite the broader economic uncertainty tied to tariffs, traders seem undeterred, leaning into heightened volatility in search of strong upside potential.
The takeaway from recent flows is clear: investors are ready to ride out the market's twists and turns.
Read Next: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/04/44816653/canada-eases-retaliatory-tariffs-on-us-goods-as-trade-tensions-thaw-under-softer-trump-stance-stocks-react">Canada Eases Retaliatory Tariffs On US Goods As Trade Tensions Thaw Under Softer Trump Stance: Stocks React</a></li>
</ul>
Image created using artificial intelligence via Midjourney.

Retail Traders Rush Into Leveraged Tech ETFs, Betting On Nasdaq Rebound After Sharp Drop

In a stunning market turnaround, the ProShares UltraPro QQQ (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TQQQ#NASDAQ">TQQQ</a>) soared over 35% on Wednesday afternoon, riding the coattails of a broad tech-driven rally sparked by President Donald Trump's <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/04/44720006/markets-take-off-as-trump-announces-90-day-tariff-pause-for-non-retaliating-nations-slaps-china-with-125-duty">90-day tariff pause for non-retaliating nations</a>.
What To Know: TQQQ, which offers triple-leveraged exposure to the Nasdaq-100 Index, benefits disproportionately from sharp moves in large-cap technology stocks. 
The ETF's top holdings mirror those of the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>) and include mega caps like Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon and Meta Platforms—all of which <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/04/44720903/nasdaq-100-eyes-strongest-day-since-2008-as-magnificent-seven-add-15-trillion-in-historic-market-rally">posted double-digit gains </a>Wednesday afternoon.
Investors interpreted the tariff reprieve as a de-escalation of global trade tensions — particularly with key U.S. allies — while simultaneously deepening pressure on China.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's comments provided a policy framework investors embraced: certainty in reciprocal tariffs, punitive measures for China and <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/04/44720006/markets-take-off-as-trump-announces-90-day-tariff-pause-for-non-retaliating-nations-slaps-china-with-125-duty">potential for future negotiations</a>.
The Nasdaq-100 meanwhile surged 10%, fueling a risk-on rotation into high-beta names, especially in the technology and consumer discretionary sectors.
The triple-levered ProShares UltraPro QQQ closed Wednesday up 35.2% at $52.61, according to data from <a href="http://pro.benzinga.com">Benzinga Pro</a>.
Read Also: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/04/44720903/nasdaq-100-eyes-strongest-day-since-2008-as-magnificent-seven-add-15-trillion-in-historic-market-rally">Nasdaq 100 Set For Strongest Rally Since 2008 As Magnificent 7 Add $1.5 Trillion In Historic Surge</a></li>
</ul>

TQQQ Surges Over 35% In Tech-Led Rebound Following Trump's Tariff Pause

Market downturns can be both terrifying and opportunistic for investors because while some see drops as a reason to panic, others view them as a chance to buy assets at a discount.
Still, investing during a <a href="https://in.benzinga.com/etfs/broad-u-s-equity-etfs/25/02/43955914/market-could-enter-a-real-correction-expert-warns">market</a> decline is not without risks, especially when using high-risk strategies like leveraging <a href="https://in.benzinga.com/25/03/44332599/exclusive-what-industry-experts-are-saying-about-the-openai-oracle-nvidias-100b-stargate-project-etfs-that-stand-to-gain">ETFs</a> or betting heavily on a continuous downturn. One Reddit user has sparked a lively debate with his very aggressive approach to the current market.
The poster, in his 30s with nearly $1 million to invest, is betting big on a further market drop. He has already committed $370,000 to this approach, which involves selling Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>) and using the proceeds to buy ProShares UltraPro QQQ (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TQQQ#NASDAQ">TQQQ</a>)–a 3x leveraged version of QQQ–and is willing to invest another $550,000.
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&#8220;Normally, I hold QQQ and sell monthly calls [out of the money] with a .15 delta. Try to make 4%-7% on top with dividends. Now that TQQQ is coming down, I am selling QQQ, doing some tax loss harvesting, and buying TQQQ (1x-&gt;3x). The price target for sale is $86. Hoping the market will keep dropping. I swap 50 shares of QQQ for every 1% it drops. I estimate I&#8217;ll be out of money around 25%-35%, depending on how closely I stick to the plan,&#8221; he wrote.
But his strategy isn&#8217;t without concerns. He questions whether the market will actually drop that much, asking, &#8220;What if we don't get there?&#8221; The Reddit community had plenty to say about the investor&#8217;s strategy, so let&#8217;s dive into the comments they left.
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<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Betting Big on Market Drop–Reddit Has a Lot to Say</h2>
Leveraged ETFs are Way Too Risky
Several commenters highlighted the fact that while many investors use leveraged ETFs to amplify their returns, they are risky and urged the poster to proceed with caution.
&#8220;Taking profits? My dude, TQQQ is going under $35 by May. I do swing trade just because of the values and % of my portfolio, but [ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/sqqq#NASDAQ">SQQQ</a>)] will still outperform just about any bearish tech strategy unless you just get super lucky with puts,&#8221; a commenter said.
One Redditor explained the concept of decay, which can erode returns over time, meaning that even if the market goes sideways or stabilizes, the investor&#8217;s TQQQ holdings could lose value.
&#8220;It&#8217;s called decay and it happens due to volatility (happens to everything that can be publicly traded, actually) and due to borrowing costs for the leverage. Borrowing costs increase when interest rates are higher, and decrease when interest rates are lower. So over time, even if the price of the underlying stays flat, the price of a leveraged ETF will converge to zero,&#8221; he wrote.
Another user reinforced the idea that leveraged ETFs aren&#8217;t ideal for long-term holding.
&#8220;I would be taking profits soon. S—t decays so fast,&#8221; he said.
While most comments were against the investor using this strategy, some Redditors shared they also employ this approach and agree with it.
&#8220;Wow, I actually am using the same method. I will sell 10 shares of QQQ to exchange TQQQ for every 1% drop. My average cost is $67. However, I only have $150,000 in total before the deadline,&#8221; a Reddit user shared.
See Also: Have $200K saved?<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/money/have-200k-saved-heres-how-to-turn-it-into-lasting-wealth"> Here's how to turn it into lasting wealth</a>
Timing is Everything With High-Risk Strategies
Redditors also cautioned the investor to time the trades well by aligning them with the market momentum rather than fighting it and holding.
&#8220;You didn&#8217;t learn an even more valuable lesson: Don&#8217;t fight the momentum! The momentum has been down, down, down. Until we get economic data, policy data, and/or technical indicators that show the momentum is changing, play the momentum! You didn&#8217;t learn your lesson well. You let [fear of missing out] on a reversal (greed) determine your trade, instead of letting market momentum dictate the trade. And now you are paying the piper,&#8221; a user wrote.
A commenter offered a counterpoint, suggesting that the market may have already bottomed out.
&#8220;I think we bottomed today. There&#8217;s no real reason for the sell-off other than fear and over-leverage. It will come back in time. Per seasonality, April and May are strong months so might as well position now even if we may still be volatile in the short term,&#8221; he said.
&#8220;Once tariffs raise prices in the next months, then hit [consumer price index] and inflation pops up, then the Fed raises rates, we'll be in a longer cycle bear market and TQQQ will bottom after the sell-off. Probably 9-12 months from now,&#8221; another Redditor warned.
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<li>How do billionaires pay less in income tax than you?<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/money/tax-deferring-adv"> Tax deferring is their number one strategy</a>.</li>
</ul>

Personal Finance

SQQQ

Aggressive Trader With Nearly $1M in Play Bets Big On Market Drop—'What If We Don't Get There?'—Reddit Debates His High-Risk Strategy

For many people, the idea of passive income is beyond charming, and it is what drives countless individuals to explore different <a href="https://in.benzinga.com/personal-finance/25/03/44335110/stupid-20-year-investment-plan-investor-questions-200000-dividend-strategy-is-it-stupid-to-put-in-that-much-into-schd">investment</a> approaches.
Still, one of the most common challenges investors face, especially those at the beginning of their journey, is whether to prioritize growth assets or <a href="https://in.benzinga.com/markets/25/03/44196217/53-year-old-with-200k-to-invest-seeks-best-stocks-for-retirement-should-i-go-all-in-on-etfs-or-bet-b">dividend</a> investing. Both methods have their benefits, but choosing the right course can be difficult, especially when balancing short-term financial needs with long-term <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/personal-finance/24/12/42301100/most-americans-dont-see-wealth-as-the-key-to-financial-success-heres-what-matters-more-to-59-of-them">wealth</a> expansion.
Let&#8217;s dive into the story of a 33-year-old investor with a $40,000 portfolio who is faced with this very challenge. The Reddit user has $30,000 of the total amount invested in dividend-focused assets, generating approximately $190 per month in passive income after taxes.
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His goal is to build a portfolio that will earn him enough dividends that he can live off them and to achieve this, he plans on investing 80% to 100% of his active income into dividend shares, ETFs, and funds.
&#8220;For now, I&#8217;m thinking maybe investing up to 20% of my portfolio to &#8220;growth&#8221; like [ProShares UltraPro QQQ (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/tqqq#NASDAQ">TQQQ</a>)] and [ProShares UltraPro S&amp;P 500 (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/upro#NYSE">UPRO</a>)], only on big corrections, and 80% of my portfolio continue to hold/reinvest in dividend assets. Or maybe focus only on growth, sell all dividend assets, and invest 80% now only in Index ETFs ([SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/spy#NYSE">SPY</a>)], [Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/qqq#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>)]) and 20% in leverage ETFs&#8230; There is a psychological aspect too, when I see passive income every month–it&#8217;s very motivating to continue investing more, to grow dividend income. So, dilemma&#8230; What do you think?&#8221; the young investor wrote.
Trending: The secret weapon in billionaire investor portfolios that you almost certainly don't own yet. <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/money/masterworks">See which asset class has outpaced the S&amp;P 500 (1995-2024) – and with near-zero correlation.</a>
The Reddit community took the comments by storm, sharing advice, insights, and suggestions, so let&#8217;s dive deep into these.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Invest $40,000 in Growth-Focused Assets or Dividends? Reddit Responds</h2>
Prioritize Growth Assets Now, Transition to Dividends Later
Many Reddit users advised the poster to focus on growth while he&#8217;s young as this strategy typically yields higher returns over the long run.
&#8220;If you&#8217;re young, I&#8217;d stick the money in a growth fund and let it ride. If you love dividends you can drop or reinvest the dividends into growth. There&#8217;s no wrong answer&#8230; but if you&#8217;re young, you&#8217;ll end up with more money investing in &#8220;growth&#8221; now. I&#8217;m 57 and started building my dividend portfolio about 15 years ago&#8230; I live on them now,&#8221; a Redditor said.
One commenter suggested a phased approach and mentioned several funds he advised the poster to invest in.
&#8220;When younger, just try and match the market. Meaning, just buy [Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/voo#NYSE">VOO</a>)] or [Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/vti#NYSE">VTI</a>)]. Averaging 10% annually, or whatever the market is doing for 30 years, is guaranteed millionaire-making based on history. If you get crazy, follow Professor G's 3-fund approach and add in [Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/qqq#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>)] and [Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/schd#NYSE">SCHD</a>)]. SCHD will be your doorway to dividends. Then, as you start nearing retirement, start pivoting more of your portfolio to high-quality income and dividend stuff. For me, that was [JPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/jepi#NYSE">JEPI</a>)], [JPMorgan Nasdaq Equity Premium Income ETF (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/jepq#NASDAQ">JEPQ</a>)], [iShares Preferred &amp; Income Securities ETF (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/pff#NASDAQ">PFF</a>)], and about 15 other income investments and stocks,&#8221; his comment reads.
&#8220;Obviously, wealth building should be your first goal. You could use value stocks or bonds that pay dividends for diversification, but diversification doesn&#8217;t speed up wealth building, it just softens market drawdowns (and restricts bull markets),&#8221; another Redditor suggested.
A user also recommended the investor focus on growth first and later transition to dividend-paying assets.
&#8220;Focus on growth assets first, build a larger capital base, and transition into dividend investing later. In my opinion. This is my plan. Dividends are great until you have to start eating into the balance to pay large expenses,&#8221; he said.
See Also: Have $200K saved?<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/money/have-200k-saved-heres-how-to-turn-it-into-lasting-wealth"> Here's how to turn it into lasting wealth</a>
Psychological Motivation Vs. Financial Logic
Commenters also admitted the psychological benefits of dividend investing the poster mentioned, especially the motivation that comes from seeing regular income, but they also warned against letting feelings override a good financial plan.
&#8220;Many people spend their whole lives chasing an imaginary number. First, define for yourself what &#8220;enough&#8221; is and keep doing what you&#8217;re doing, you&#8217;re probably better off than you realize. Also, the &#8220;fastest&#8221; way is very rarely the most &#8220;logical&#8221; way, but the biggest thing you can do after cutting back spending is increase your income,&#8221; a commenter said.
A user cautioned against investing in too many assets and ending up having too many tickers to handle, suggesting a few ETFs instead.
&#8220;One thing I would caution against though, regardless of which way you go, is having too many tickers and positions to monitor. Once you get into individual stocks, managing more than 15-20 becomes basically a full-time job; at least to do it properly. So my personal recommendation would be to move into a few ETFs that align with your investment thesis unless you feel you can manage that many individual positions,&#8221; the Redditor advised.
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JEPI

JEPQ

iShares S&P US Preferred Stock Index Fund

SCHD

Investor With $40,000 Portfolio Wonders If He Should Pick Dividend Investing Or Growth First – 'Would You Prioritize Dividends Or Growth?

ProShares UltraPro QQQ (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TQQQ#NASDAQ">TQQQ</a>) is trading lower by 4.14% to $58.60 Thursday afternoon. Major indexes are lower despite softer-than-expected Feb. PPI data. Continued tariff concerns may be <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/03/44300810/us-producer-inflation-stalls-in-february-as-services-costs-drop-eggs-price-skyrockets">weighing on market sentiment</a>.
What To Know: February's PPI was flat, well below the 0.3% forecast, but failed to lift stocks. 
Instead, markets fixated on President Trump's threat of a 200% tariff on European wine and spirits unless the EU eliminates its 50% duty on U.S. whiskey. The news triggered a broad equity sell-off, with the Nasdaq 100 losing 1.7% and tech stocks leading declines.
TQQQ, which amplifies the Nasdaq 100's movements, suffered disproportionately as growth stocks faltered. Treasury yields dipped, with the 10-year yield down to 4.29%, while gold soared to a record $2,980 per ounce, reflecting heightened risk aversion.
As a leveraged ETF, TQQQ thrives in strong rallies but falls sharply in downturns. With trade fears and economic uncertainty rising, volatility could keep pressuring the fund in the near term.
Read Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/econ-s/25/03/44307019/latest-inflation-data-excludes-tariffs-trump-policy-changes-2025-will-be-much-more-volatile-year-economist-says">Latest Inflation Data Excludes Tariffs, Trump Policy Changes: 2025 Will Be &#8216;Much More Volatile Year,&#8217; Economist Says</a>

Why Nasdaq-100 Leveraged ETF TQQQ Is Falling

Retail investors are once again proving to be the backbone of <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas">the stock market</a>, stepping in to buy every dip. 
According to JPMorgan analyst Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, hedge funds, after playing defense for much of 2024, are now quietly rebuilding their positions &#8211; especially in the Magnificent Seven (MAG 7) stocks.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Retail's Relentless Buy-The-Dip Fuels The Market</h2>
Despite recent market jitters, retail investors continue to &#8220;buy the dip.&#8221; pouring a massive $79 billion into equity ETFs so far in February, per JPMorgan's data. That's only slightly below January's $92 billion, reinforcing retail's role as the market's backstop.
One ETF in particular stands out &#8211; Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>), which tracks the Nasdaq-100, spiked on February 25th. This suggests retail traders are staying aggressive on high-growth tech names like Nvidia Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>), Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>) and Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>).
Read Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/25/02/44001229/us-stocks-likely-to-open-higher-after-nvidias-blowout-earnings-this-is-still-a-bull-market-says-expert">US Stocks Likely To Open Higher After Nvidia&#8217;s Blowout Earnings: &#8216;This Is Still A Bull Market,&#8217; Says Expert</a>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Hedge Funds Rebuilding Magnificent Seven Exposure</h2>
Institutional investors, especially hedge funds, were in risk-off mode through late 2024, cutting exposure to the MAG 7 stocks. But Panigirtzoglou's data shows they're now quietly rebuilding positions in these names, a bullish signal for investors tracking institutional flows.
Equity long/short hedge funds, which had low beta exposure in December, have ramped it up in 2025, indicating renewed confidence in growth stocks.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Leveraged ETFs: A Double-Edged Sword</h2>
While retail money has been a stabilizing force, leveraged equity ETFs have been fueling volatility. JPMorgan's data reveals these ETFs triggered $19 billion in negative flows over just three days, amplifying the recent market correction.
For traders, this highlights a key takeaway: leverage can cut both ways. 
While leveraged ETFs like ProShares UltraPro QQQ (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TQQQ#NASDAQ">TQQQ</a>) can magnify gains, they also accelerate sell-offs—something to watch in choppy markets.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Takeaway for Investors</h2>
Retail investors remain a powerful force, hedge funds are wading back into the MAG 7. 
But with leveraged ETFs swinging the market, expect more volatility ahead.
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Photo: Shutterstock

Analyst Color

Long Ideas

Analyst Ratings

AAPL

MSFT

February Fever: Retail Investors 'Buy-The-Dip' As Hedge Funds Rebuild Magnificent Seven Bets

The ProShares UltraPro QQQ (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TQQQ#NASDAQ">TQQQ</a>), which provides triple-leveraged exposure to the Nasdaq-100 Index, fell some 10.81% to $82.09 Wednesday after the Federal Reserve's <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/econ-s/24/12/42561549/fed-slashes-interest-rates-by-0-25-as-predicted-december-dot-plot-flags-only-2-potential-cuts-in-2025">December meeting</a>.
What To Know: The ETF is sensitive to bullish sentiment in tech stocks, which struggled amid concerns over the Fed's cautious outlook on monetary easing.
While the Fed reduced the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.25%-4.5%, projections for only two additional rate cuts in 2025 dampened investor enthusiasm.
Read Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/econ-s/24/12/42564807/powell-triggers-market-carnage-vix-spikes-58-stocks-plummet-dollar-hits-2-year-highs-bitcoin-nosedives">Powell Triggers Market Carnage: VIX Spikes 58%, Stocks Plummet, Dollar Hits 2-Year Highs, Bitcoin Nosedives</a>
Higher inflation expectations for 2025, with core PCE inflation now forecast at 2.5%, further weighed on growth stocks.
Tech-heavy indices, which benefit from lower borrowing costs, faced headwinds as the Fed signaled a slower pace of rate reductions than markets had previously anticipated. Wednesday&#8217;s decline could reflect renewed uncertainty about the growth sector's ability to thrive in a persistently higher-rate environment.
According to data from&nbsp;<a href="https://benzinga.grsm.io/register174">Benzinga Pro</a>, TQQQ has a 52-week high of $93.79 and a 52-week low of $45.47.
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</ul>
Photo: Golden Dayz via Shutterstock

Stocks and cryptocurrencies saw heavy action during the after-hours trading session during the 2024 election thanks to the expansion of 24-hour trading at companies like Robinhood Markets (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/HOOD#NASDAQ">HOOD</a>), which sees the extended hours as a key user<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/24/08/40242234/robinhood-ceo-vlad-tenev-says-24-hour-market-trading-volume-approaching-30b-we-are-really-excite"> growth item moving forward.</a>
Here's a look at the top trading tickers and cryptocurrencies on Tuesday night.
What Happened: Investors closely watched the stock market and cryptocurrencies as Donald Trump pulled ahead in the 2024 election and was <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/11/41768178/donald-trump-defeats-kamala-harris-to-win-2024-election">declared the winner</a> by the Associated Press in the early hours of Wednesday morning.
Years ago, investors would have had to wait until the stock market opened to start buying their favorite stocks linked to a potential Trump win, but that wasn't the case Tuesday night.
As Trump pulled ahead in the race, shares of Trump Media &amp; Technology Group (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DJT#NASDAQ">DJT</a>), a media company the president co-founded, <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/24/11/41767200/trump-media-stock-djt-jumps-33-77-in-pre-market-as-ex-president-inches-closer-to-white-house-vic">surged ahead.</a> Electric vehicle company Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>) also gained significantly, fueled by CEO Elon Musk's close ties with Trump and the expectation that the incoming administration may create a <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/11/41755274/trump-win-could-hinder-tech-ev-sector-growth-slow-the-pace-of-ai-revolution-analyst">more favorable environment</a> for Tesla, potentially challenging its competitors and boosting its share price outlook.
Robinhood reported its largest overnight session since launching the 24-hour market. This included the company's recently launched 2024 election contracts <a href="https://x.com/RobinhoodApp/status/1854017622758862891">passing </a>a milestone of 400 million contracts traded.
The <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/sports-betting/24/11/41719799/robinhood-passes-100-million-2024-election-contracts-do-users-favor-trump-or-harris-on-sto">company reported the</a> 100 million contract milestone ahead of the election and later reported that the figure had doubled to 200 million <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/24/11/41756372/robinhoods-election-contracts-hit-200-million-trades-on-election-day">around one day later</a>. A total of over 500,000 Robinhood users <a href="https://x.com/RobinhoodApp/status/1854006857918300538">traded </a>election contracts according to the company.
Trading volume Tuesday night was around 11 times more than the company's usual overnight volume from 8 p.m. ET to 4 a.m. ET.
Here were the top 10 traded stocks and ETFs Tuesday night during the overnight trading session, according to Robinhood. The company did not specify the leaders in volume order, so they are listed below in alphabetical order by ticker:
<ul>
<li>Coinbase Global (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/COIN#NASDAQ">COIN</a>)</li>
<li>Trump Media &amp; Technology Group (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DJT#NASDAQ">DJT</a>)</li>
<li>iShares Bitcoin Trust (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IBIT#NASDAQ">IBIT</a>)</li>
<li>MicroStrategy Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSTR#NASDAQ">MSTR</a>)</li>
<li>NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>)</li>
<li>Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>)</li>
<li>SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>)</li>
<li>Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>)</li>
<li>Direxion Daily TSLA Bull 2X Shares (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLL#NASDAQ">TSLL</a>)</li>
<li>ProShares UltraPro QQQ (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TQQQ#NASDAQ">TQQQ</a>)</li>
</ul>
Robinhood also reported that the top three traded cryptocurrencies Tuesday night, in no particular order, were Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>), Dogecoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/doge/usd">DOGE</a>), and Ethereum (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/eth/usd">ETH</a>).
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<li>Congress Is Making Huge Investments. <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/gov-trades/?utm_source=BZprocontent110624">Get Tips On What They Bought And Sold Ahead Of The 2024 Election With Our Easy-to-Use Tool</a></li>
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Why It's Important: The heavy volume from Robinhood came as many expected potential volatility in after-hours and extended-hours trading for brokerages that offer these services to their customers.
"We don't expect to have any issues at this point in time," an Interactive Brokers spokesperson told <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-05/legions-of-day-traders-are-bracing-for-election-day-disruptions?sref=TBDibEcD">Bloomberg </a>ahead of the election. "We've seen heavy trading volumes on the exchange with over 50 million presidential contracts traded today."
Like Robinhood and others, Interactive Brokers (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IBKR#NASDAQ">IBKR</a>) <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/24/10/41174915/interactive-brokers-rolls-out-election-contracts-as-kalshi-resumes-high-stakes-congressional-bets">offered 2024 election contracts</a> through its ForecastEx LLC subsidiary. From Oct. 4 through the end of the day on Nov. 4, Interactive Brokers saw over 220 million 2024 election contracts traded, the company said. &nbsp;
The inclusion of election contract trading and having cryptocurrencies on the platform likely contributed to Robinhood's record night.
The list of 10 tickers above shows that several of them (COIN, IBIT, MSTR) were related to the cryptocurrency sector. Bitcoin hit all-time highs of $75,361.09 Wednesday morning and traded higher during the run-up to Trump&#8217;s declaration as the victor of the 2024 election.
Several brokers offer 24-hour trading of stocks and ETFs. Charles Schwab Corp (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SCHW#NYSE">SCHW</a>) recently announced <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/fintech/24/10/41627496/schwab-expands-24-hour-trading-to-include-all-stocks-in-s-p-500-nasdaq-100-hundreds-of-etfs">that it would expand</a> 24-hour trading to all stocks in the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indexes in 2025.
The New York Stock Exchange, which is owned by Intercontinental Exchange (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ICE#NYSE">ICE</a>), is <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/24/10/41561907/nyse-to-extend-arca-exchange-trading-to-22-hours-per-day">looking to extend trading hours </a>of the Arca Exchange to 22 hours a day from 1:30 a.m. ET to 11:30 p.m. ET subject to regulatory approval.
The 2024 election may change many things going forward, including the likelihood that investors will have more options to trade stocks, ETFs and cryptocurrencies more hours in the day.
HOOD Price Action: Robinhood stock is up 18.6% to $29.62 on Wednesday, hitting new 52-week highs of $29.27 early in the trading session. The stock is up 139% year-to-date in 2024.
Read Next: 
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/asia/24/11/41768811/donald-trump-wins-47th-presidency-us-futures-up-europe-up-asia-mixed-crude-falls-and-dollar-strength">Donald Trump Wins 47th Presidency -US Futures Up, Europe Up, Asia Mixed, Crude Falls And Dollar Strengthens</a></li>
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Photo: Shutterstock

Fintech news covering the emerging Financial Technology services sector

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$BTC

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Robinhood Reports Record Overnight Trading Volume, 400 Million 2024 Election Contracts Traded

The Federal Reserve is widely anticipated to cut interest rates at its upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting, with the decision set for release on Wednesday <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/09/40878710/investors-bet-on-50-basis-point-rate-cut-wall-street-analysts-urge-caution-this-is-">at 2 p.m. ET.</a>
The central bank has maintained the federal funds rate at 5.25%-5.5% since September 2023 and this week&#8217;s rate reduction would be the first since March 2020, signaling a marked shift from the restrictive monetary policy stance implemented to combat soaring inflation.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Rate Cut Expectations: Will The Fed Opt For 25 Or 50 Basis Points?</h3>
The key question on everyone&#8217;s mind is the magnitude of the rate cut. Will the Fed opt for a cautious 25-basis-point reduction, or will it make a bolder move with a 50-basis-point cut, as seen at the start of previous rate-cutting cycles?
Market sentiment currently differs from Wall Street economist consensus. Traders are pricing in a 63% probability of a 50-basis-point cut, as per the CME FedWatch tool.
Among Wall Street analysts, instead, there is an overwhelming consensus on a more conservative 25-basis-point reduction, but JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. stands out as the notable exception, forecasting a 50-basis-point cut.
According to the biggest U.S. bank, interest rates are about 150 basis points above neutral levels. Therefore, a 25-basis-point cut per meeting would take almost a year to align the policy back to a neutral stance. 
This strengthens the case for frontloading rate cuts at the start of the cycle, particularly given that, in hindsight, a July commencement might have been more appropriate.
Regardless of whether the Fed chooses a 25 or 50-basis-point reduction, analysts expect a series of cuts to continue through 2024 and 2025.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Investor Moves Ahead of the Rate Cut: Top 10 ETFs Investors Bought Last Week</h3>
In the week leading up to this highly anticipated rate cut, investors reshuffled their portfolios, resulting in significant inflows into various exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that may indicate a strategic tilt toward assets poised to benefit from a lower interest rate environment.
To identify these trends, Benzinga analyzed data from VettaFi&#8217;s etfdb.com, and found that investors displayed a strong preference for value-oriented ETFs. 
Notable among these were the iShares MSCI EAFE Value ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EFV#NYSE">EFV</a>) and SPDR Portfolio S&amp;P 500 Value ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPYV#NYSE">SPYV</a>), signaling a tilt towards assets that may offer stability and a defensive hedge as the macro regime shifts.
As a traditional beneficiary of lower interest rates, gold has also been on investors&#8217; radar, with prices repeatedly hitting record highs over the last week, supported by strong inflows into the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>). 
Also worth noting is the interest in the tech sector, particularly semiconductors, with the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SMH#NYSE">SMH</a>) seeing substantial inflows.
Additionally, investors pursued speculative and leveraged strategies on the Nasdaq 100, likely interpreted as a bet to the rising chance of a larger 50-basis-point cut. 
Investors bought into both ProShares Ultra QQQ (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QLD#NYSE">QLD</a>), which aims to deliver twice the daily performance of the Nasdaq 100, and the ProShares UltraPro QQQ (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TQQQ#NYSE">TQQQ</a>), which targets three times the daily performance of the index.
Rounding out the list, the popular small-cap fund iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IWM#NYSE">IWM</a>) attracted over half a billion dollars in inflows last week, signaling investors&#8217; growing interest in smaller, domestically-focused companies as they are poised to benefit from declining borrowing costs.
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>ETF Name</th>
<th>1 Week Inflows ($MM)</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>iShares MSCI EAFE Value ETF</td>
<td>$1,135.48</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>SPDR Portfolio S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPLG#NYSE">SPLG</a>)</td>
<td>$820.85</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Vanguard Intermediate-Term Corporate Bond ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VCIT#NYSE">VCIT</a>)</td>
<td>$818.30</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>SPDR Portfolio S&amp;P 500 Value ETF</td>
<td>$775.06</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>VanEck Semiconductor ETF</td>
<td>$717.11</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VOO#NYSE">VOO</a>)</td>
<td>$698.27</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>SPDR Gold Shares</td>
<td>$648.41</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>ProShares Ultra QQQ</td>
<td>$646.66</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>ProShares UltraPro QQQ</td>
<td>$560.15</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>iShares Russell 2000 ETF </td>
<td>$552.24</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</figure>
Read now: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/09/40903154/13-etfs-to-own-as-fed-set-to-cut-rates-analysts-highlight-utilities-real-estate-and">13 ETFs To Own As Fed Set To Cut Rates: Analysts Highlight Utilities, Real Estate, And More</a></li>
</ul>
Image created using artificial intelligence via Midjourney.

10 ETFs Investors Secretly Bought Before The Fed's Make-Or-Break Interest Rate Call

Microsoft Corp&nbsp;(NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>) has introduced a new Windows API, DirectSR, aimed at revolutionizing how game developers incorporate AI-upscaling technologies from leading companies like&nbsp;Nvidia Corp&nbsp;(NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>),&nbsp;Advanced Micro Devices, Inc&nbsp;(NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMD#NASDAQ">AMD</a>), and&nbsp;Intel Corp&nbsp;(NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/INTC#NASDAQ">INTC</a>)&nbsp;<a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/01/36783057/microsofts-major-gaming-shake-up-1-900-layoffs-and-leadership-changes-in-post-acquisition-strategy" rel="noreferrer noopener">into their games</a>.&nbsp;
As program manager Joshua Tucker described, DirectSR is the crucial connection facilitating games to utilize super-resolution technologies.&nbsp;
This new API promises to deliver a smoother and more efficient gaming experience compatible across various hardware platforms, the Verge&nbsp;<a target="_blank" href="https://www.theverge.com/2024/2/29/24086443/microsoft-directsr-super-resolution-api" rel="noreferrer noopener">reports</a>.
The essence of DirectSR lies in its ability to support multi-vendor super-resolution (SR) technologies through a unified set of inputs and outputs.&nbsp;
This approach enables developers to implement a single code path to activate diverse solutions, including Nvidia&#8217;s DLSS Super Resolution, AMD&#8217;s FidelityFX Super Resolution, and Intel&#8217;s XeSS.&nbsp;
The advantage for developers is significant, as it absolves them from the need to individually code for each upscaling technology, streamlining the development process.
This announcement follows the discovery of an &#8220;Automatic Super Resolution&#8221; feature in a test version of Windows 11, which suggested the use of AI to enhance the smoothness and detail of supported games.&nbsp;
Microsoft fired 1,900 employees across Activision Blizzard and Xbox in January to create a more sustainable cost structure, equating to about 8% of its Gaming division.&nbsp;
Blizzard president Mike Ybarra and Allen Adham, Blizzard&#8217;s chief design officer and co-founder, also departed.
Blizzard canceled its previously announced survival game.
Investors can gain exposure to the AI driven FAANG stocks via&nbsp;ProShares UltraPro QQQ&nbsp;(NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TQQQ#NASDAQ">TQQQ</a>) and&nbsp;Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1&nbsp;(NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>), which gained 9-25% year-to-date.&nbsp;
Price Action:&nbsp;MSFT shares are trading lower by 0.37% at $412.12 at last check Friday.&nbsp;
Also Read:&nbsp;<a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/23/12/36176059/microsoft-strikes-historic-union-deal-on-ai-usage-but-what-does-it-mean-for-workers" rel="noreferrer noopener">Microsoft Strikes Historic Union Deal on AI Usage, But What Does It Mean for Workers?</a>
Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
Photo via Shutterstock

Media

AMZN

GOOGL

INTC

NFLX

Microsoft Unveils DirectSR API, A Boost for AI-Upscaling with Nvidia, AMD, and Intel

ProShares UltraPro QQQ (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TQQQ#NASDAQ">TQQQ</a>) shares are trading lower by 5.1% to $56.50 Tuesday morning. The leveraged ETF is falling after inflation for January 2024 dipped slightly but missed <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/econ-s/24/02/37092707/us-inflation-rate-runs-hot-in-january-puts-fed-rate-cut-bets-in-jeopardy">economists&#8217; forecasts</a>.
The annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rate fell to 3.1%, down from 3.4%, but higher than the expected 2.9%. Monthly CPI increased by 0.3%, surpassing the expected 0.2%. Core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, held steady at 3.8%, missing the anticipated drop to 3.7%&#8230;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/econ-s/24/02/37092707/us-inflation-rate-runs-hot-in-january-puts-fed-rate-cut-bets-in-jeopardy">Read More</a>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Why This Matters</h2>
When economic data misses forecasts, it can lead to uncertainty and volatility in the market. Investors often rely on economic forecasts to make investment decisions, and when the actual data deviates from these forecasts, it can trigger reactions in the market.
The fact that the core CPI inflation rate, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, held steady may suggest persistent inflationary pressures. This could lead to concerns about potential future interest rate hikes, or a lack of rate cutes, by the Federal Reserve to combat inflation, which could impact borrowing costs for companies and dampen economic growth expectations.
See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/startups/24/02/37097064/snapchat-previously-rejected-mark-zuckerbergs-3b-buyout-now-abysmal-earnings-worry-investors-that-me">Snapchat Previously Rejected Mark Zuckerberg&#8217;s $3B Buyout</a>
According to data from <a href="https://benzinga.grsm.io/register174">Benzinga Pro</a>, TQQQ has a 52-week high of $61.14 and a 52-week low of $20.13.

<ul>
<li>UPRO</li>
<li>BB</li>
<li>TSLA</li>
<li>TQQQ</li>
<li>SPAM</li>
<li>QQQ</li>
<li>XBI</li>
</ul>
Data from <a href="https://swaggystocks.com/dashboard/wallstreetbets/ticker-sentiment">https://swaggystocks.com/dashboard/wallstreetbets/ticker-sentiment</a>
&nbsp;

SPAM

Top 7 Trending Stocks On WallStreetBets As Of December 21, 2023 (Via Swaggy Stocks)

<ul>
<li>TSLA</li>
<li>QQQ</li>
<li>AAPL</li>
<li>NET</li>
<li>CORN</li>
<li>SOFI</li>
<li>IWM</li>
<li>TQQQ</li>
<li>MRNA</li>
<li>UPST</li>
</ul>
Data from <a href="https://swaggystocks.com/dashboard/wallstreetbets/ticker-sentiment">https://swaggystocks.com/dashboard/wallstreetbets/ticker-sentiment</a>
&nbsp;

CORN

MRNA

SOFI

UPST

Top 10 Trending Stocks On WallStreetBets As Of December 14, 2023 (Via Swaggy Stocks)

In 2023, retail investors made a comeback.
The stock market was flooded during the COVID-19 pandemic by a wave of novice investors, <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/23/02/30876594/chasing-the-robinhood-generation-are-young-retail-investors-still-betting-on-the-market-1">attracted by stimulus checks, extra free time and the new possibilities</a> granted by mobile trading platforms.
Approximately 30 million new brokerage accounts were opened between 2020 and 2021 in the U.S. alone. While some of these investors <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/fintech/23/11/35781373/exclusive-investor-appetite-shifts-towards-bonds-embracing-small-bites-of-risk">left the market once lockdowns were over, a large share of them stayed</a> and recent data shows they've invested in record levels during 2023.
Although millennial-preferred trading platforms such as Robinhood Markets Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/HOOD#NASDAQ">HOOD</a>) lost a big share of users between 2021 and 2022, many young investors migrated to legacy brokers like Fidelity, Charles Schwab Corporation (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SCHW#NYSE">SCHW</a>) and its subsidiary TD Ameritrade, with new knowledge and experience about the market's ups and downs.
By mid-2021, retail investors accounted for about 10% of the market's trading volume; a big drop from the 15% reached in September 2020, when pandemic-related lockdowns and checks were at their peak, according to Reuters.
In 2022, the average daily trading volume in U.S. stocks coming from retail investors was even lower than in 2021, reaching $13.8 billion against $14.2 billion the previous year.
Yet retail trading picked up in 2023. By February, average daily trading volume from the retail cohort reached a peak of $1.51 billion, beating every other historical peak, including those reached during the heights of COVID-induced trading.
According to a Gallup survey, the percentage of Americans holding stocks has risen consistently since the pandemic, and currently amounts to 61% of the population. It continues, however, below levels seen before the 2008 financial crash.
A recent report by investment firm Public used the platform's trading data to analyze the behavior of retail traders.
Public's investors followed a trend of diversification into different asset classes this year with <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/money/how-to-invest-in-artificial-intelligence">AI-thematic ETFs</a> seeing a major boost in interest following the recent AI boom. Asset class diversity among retail investors rose by 25% on Public.
The ETF share of the total trading market also grew in 2023, showing a shift away from single-stock investment into more traditionally safe strategies <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/23/11/35798096/investors-now-more-concerned-about-geopolitical-conflict-than-inflation-bank-of-america-survey-revea">in light of the political and economic volatility experienced of recent times</a>.
In the past three months, the top three ETFs by trading volume were ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SQQQ#NASDAQ">SQQQ</a>), ProShares UltraPro QQQ (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TQQQ#NASDAQ">TQQQ</a>) and SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>).
In a recent exclusive for Benzinga, Katie Perry, general manager of IR innovation at Public, said <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/23/10/35337219/katie-perry-resilient-retail-investors-enter-a-new-phase-of-growth-heres-how-their-participation-in">retail investors are detaching from the meme-stock investor stereotype</a> and growing into a more mature profile.
Fixed-income investments such as bonds and stocks that give dividends became a new preference of this cohort, who's looking to build a less risky long-term investment strategy.
Illustration made with Midjourney AI.

Retail Investing Peaks In 2023: How Small-Time Trading Matured From Meme Stock Frenzy

We performed a screening of Leveraged ETFs to determine what funds had the largest change in net assets on the week, according to data from <a href="http://etfdb.com">etfdb.com</a>.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Winners</h2>
ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SQQQ#NYSE">SQQQ</a>)
SPTS added $185.27 million in net assets over the trailing week.
The ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ offers 3x daily short leverage to the NASDAQ-100 Index.
SPHY has $3.76 billion in AUM and an expense ratio of 0.95%.&nbsp;
SPHY added $3.25 billion in net assets YTD.
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TMF#NYSE">TMF</a>)
TMF added $50.70 million in net assets over the trailing week.
The Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares offers 3x long leveraged exposure to the broad-based NYSE 20 Year Plus Treasury Bond Index.
TMF has $2.23 billion in AUM and an expense ratio of 1.06%.
TMF added $2.88 billion in net assets, YTD.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Losers</h2>
Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3x Shares (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SOXL#NYSE">SOXL</a>)
SOXL is down $254.56 million in AUM over the trailing week.
The Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3x Shares offers 3x daily long leverage to the PHLX Semiconductor Index.
The fund has $6.64 billion in AUM and an expense ratio of .94%. The fund is spread across 31 companies with the top 10 holdings accounting for 60.98% of the fund's value.
ITB's largest holdings are Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMD#NASDAQ">AMD</a>) and Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AVGO#NASDAQ">AVGO</a>) making up 16.13% and 6.82% of the fund, respectively.
SOXL is down $1.07 billion in AUM YTD.
ProShares UltraPro QQQ (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TQQQ#NASDAQ">TQQQ</a>)
TQQQ is down $140.56 million in AUM on the week.
The ProShares UltraPro QQQ offers 3x daily long leverage to the NASDAQ-100 Index.
The fund has $17.56 billion in AUM and an expense ratio of 0.88%.&nbsp; The fund is spread across 128 companies with the top 10 holdings accounting for 48.70% of the fund's value.
ITB's largest holdings are Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>) and Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>) making up 4.59% and 4.10% of the fund, respectively.
YTD, TQQQQ is down $4.55 billion in AUM.

AVGO

Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares

Proshares' Short QQQ Play Tops The List This Week - ETF Winners And Losers: Leveraged Flows

ProShares UltraPro QQQ (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/tqqq#NASDAQ">TQQQ</a>)&nbsp;shares are trading lower by 1.09% to $35.55 Thursday afternoon. The ETF is falling amid&nbsp;recent strength in <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/23/10/35093711/vix-soars-to-5-month-high-what-surging-treasury-yields-mean-for-stocks">Treasury yields</a>.
For the unitiated, per ProShares, TQQQ&nbsp;seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, that correspond to three times (3x) the&nbsp;daily performance&nbsp;of the&nbsp;NASDAQ-100&nbsp;(NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/qqq#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>) ETF.
Why It Matters
Rising Treasury yields can lead to higher borrowing costs for corporations, which can negatively impact their profitability. This, in turn, can lead to lower stock prices for the companies included in the NASDAQ-100 Index and, consequently, for TQQQ, which seeks to track the index&#39;s performance.
TQQQ is heavily weighted toward the technology <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/money/best-sectors-to-invest-in-right-now/">sector</a>, and technology stocks are often sensitive to changes in interest rates. Higher interest rates can lead to higher discount rates applied to future cash flows, potentially reducing the present value of future earnings for tech companies.
This can lead to a decline in the stock prices of tech-related firms, which are major constituents of the NASDAQ-100 Index.
See Also:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/23/09/34944429/s-p-500-nasdaq-set-to-rebound-despite-soaring-bond-yields-analyst-warns-of-volatility-persisting">U.S. Stocks Struggle As Fed Sounds Hawkish</a>
According to data from&nbsp;<a href="https://benzinga.grsm.io/register174">Benzinga Pro</a>, TQQQ&nbsp;has a 52-week high of $47.14 and a 52-week low of $16.10.

What's Going On With Nasdaq-100 Leveraged ETF TQQQ

<h3>Identifying Reversals Using Leveraged ETFs</h3>
<ul>
<li>Trade signatures offer valuable insights into institutional positioning and intent.</li>
<li>Institutions follow certain patterns when opening and closing leveraged trades.</li>
<li>Institutional behavior on certain dates is predictable.</li>
<li>Institutional positioning suggests we begin October with a rally.</li>
</ul>
<h3>Leveraged ETFs</h3>
Leveraged ETFs are ETFs that aim to return anywhere from -3x to +3x daily returns relative to its underlying ETF.&nbsp;For example, TQQQ (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/tqqq#NASDAQ">TQQQ</a>) is 3x leverage against QQQ (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/qqq#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>) and will return 3% for every 1% return on QQQ.&nbsp;Likewise, SQQQ&nbsp;(NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/sqqq#NASDAQ">SQQQ</a>) is the 3x inverse leverage against QQQ and will return 3% for every 1% decline on QQQ.&nbsp;But these ETFs suffer from decay and are not meant to be held for long periods of time.&nbsp;Typically you&rsquo;d only want to hold when the expected move of the underlying is substantial enough to offset the decay that would be suffered during that period.&nbsp;Typically this means holding for hours or days, not weeks or months.&nbsp;Chart any leveraged ETF and you can see that over the long run, they all approach zero.&nbsp;This is by design.&nbsp;
But in short bursts, they can be very profitable.&nbsp;Institutions trade these leveraged ETFs at key junctures when they&rsquo;re planning sharp moves in either direction.&nbsp;Detecting when institutions trade these instruments with size can provide valuable insight about the next move in the underlying.
<h3>Institutional Trade Patterns Using Leveraged ETFs</h3>
After countless hours of observing institutional trades using <a href="Volumeleaders.com" style="color:#0563c1">Volumeleaders.com</a>, a pattern has emerged.&nbsp; Allow me to explain.
When trading at or near local lows and seeking a reversal, institutions will:
<ul>
<li>Build position in the underlying as price declines, create a base, and set a low.</li>
<li>Initiate a short rally, then pullback above the prior low.</li>
<li>Add long leverage on the pullback, followed by longer/stronger rally.</li>
<li>Close long leverage after the stronger rally, signifying its end.</li>
<li>Consolidate.&nbsp;Chop.&nbsp;Establish one more nominal high.&nbsp;Close longs in the underlying as price exhausts.</li>
</ul>
Institutions follow the same process after local highs are made, but in reverse:&nbsp;
<ul>
<li>Build a short position in the underlying.</li>
<li>Initiate a shallow decline, then retrace up.</li>
<li>Add short leverage on the retrace followed by a stronger/steeper decline.&nbsp;</li>
<li>Close short leverage after the sharp decline, signifying its end.</li>
<li>Consolidate.&nbsp; Chop.&nbsp;Establish one more spike low.&nbsp;Close shorts in the underlying as price exhausts.&nbsp;</li>
</ul>
Aside:&nbsp;I&rsquo;m not an Elliott wave practitioner myself, but those that employ EW methodologies in their trading would see leverage trade heavily before and after wave 3 or C, as those are the sharpest moves in any wave structure.&nbsp;Likewise, they&#39;d see large positions established and closed in the underlying near the ends of wave 5 or C, as that&rsquo;s when waves terminate and reverse.
But there&#39;s are nuances to this pattern of course.&nbsp;
<h3>Nuance #1</h3>
When leverage comes out of sequence, it&#39;s often meant to be used in reverse.&nbsp;We saw this twice recently in TMF (3x bull TLT) when disproportionately large trades arrived without large positions in the underlying TLT having been established first, thus signaling they were short positions instead of longs.&nbsp;Here&rsquo;s one example below.
<img alt="untitled_design_37.png" src="https://www.benzinga.com/files/images/2023/October/02/untitled_design_37.png" style="height:313px; width:624px" />
<img alt="untitled_design_38.png" src="https://www.benzinga.com/files/images/2023/October/02/untitled_design_38.png" style="height:313px; width:624px" />
<h3>Nuance #2</h3>
When institutions trade the leveraged bull ETFs with size in conjunction with the leveraged bear ETFs with&nbsp;size, it often signifies an immediate reversal.&nbsp;This can be illustrated by trades seen near the summer high on July 15 in TQQQ and SQQQ which both traded together with unusual size, suggesting institutions are either closing one end to open the other, or they&rsquo;re taking longs in one and shorts in the other.&nbsp;In either case, QQQ reversed upon the arrival of these two trades and a high was made.&nbsp;
<img alt="untitled_design_39.png" src="https://www.benzinga.com/files/images/2023/October/02/untitled_design_39.png" style="height:313px; width:624px" />
<img alt="untitled_design_40.png" src="https://www.benzinga.com/files/images/2023/October/02/untitled_design_40.png" style="height:313px; width:624px" />
These two trades were both made at 4:05pm on July 15, perhaps by the same entity.&nbsp;The trade signatures on these trades offer insights into which is taking place (open &amp; close vs two directionally equivalent opening trades made by shorting one leveraged ETF and longing the other), which brings me to nuance #3.
<h3>Nuance #3</h3>
When a large trade is made with nice round number share size, I favor it being an opening trade.&nbsp;For example, a trade of exactly 1M shares is more likely to be an opening trade than a closing trade.&nbsp;I believe this is partially because humans think in round numbers.&nbsp;We want a million shares of this, or a hundred thousand shares of that.&nbsp;We don&rsquo;t seek to open positions that are cumbersome to track.&nbsp;
But conversely, positions are closed along the way as price meets different targets, or as a function of how much liquidity exists at different levels.&nbsp;Trades aren&rsquo;t necessarily closed in one move as they might be opened. The likelihood that an institution wants exactly 1M shares is less than the likelihood that an institution has exactly 1M shares on the books to sell.&nbsp; Positions are often opened in one move, and then closed along the way as partial profits are taken as price nears its target.&nbsp;What&#39;s left at the end is the closing trade.&nbsp;
Further, large round-number blocks are also commonly found as market maker hedges against options positions.&nbsp;If an institution wants to purchase 10,000 option contracts, the hedge will be 1M shares.&nbsp;As time passes and those options decay, and price moves away from the price at which they were traded, the resulting hedge will diminish in size, and market makers will reduce the size of their hedge accordingly to remain delta neutral.&nbsp;When the options are closed out, what remains of the hedge will be closed with it, and that&rsquo;s often an odd-lot number of shares.
Now, sometimes opening trades are odd-lot numbers too.&nbsp;A trade of 1,473,291 shares could be an opening trade or a closing trade.&nbsp;But it&rsquo;s less common that closing trades are nice round numbers.&nbsp;So, if I see a round number of shares on a disproportionately large trade, I assume it&#39;s a new opening trade unless I have reason to believe otherwise.&nbsp;In the example above from July 15, both trades were round number sizes, suggesting they were both opened.&nbsp;
TQQQ &ndash; Exactly 1,200,000 shares.
SQQQ &ndash; Exactly 3,000,000 shares
Simply put, I think they bought SQQQ and shorted TQQQ at the same moment to capture as much of the expected move lower in the underlying QQQ as they could by using both leveraged ETFs concurrently.&nbsp;
<h3>Why Is This Relevant?</h3>
That brings us to Friday&rsquo;s trades in QQQ, TQQQ, and SQQQ.
At 2:09pm we got exactly 2,400,000 shares of QQQ traded on the open market.&nbsp;It ranked 15th largest since inception, making it meaningfully large.&nbsp;It was a round number of shares, and it appeared on the open exchange during regular trading hours, so my interpretation was that it was a hedge against a large options position being opened, though it didn&rsquo;t have to be.&nbsp;More importantly, it appeared near a local low after several days of selling which led me to believe it was bullish positioning for the simple reason that institutions buy low and sell high.&nbsp;
<img alt="untitled_design_41.png" src="https://www.benzinga.com/files/images/2023/October/02/untitled_design_41.png" style="height:313px; width:624px" />
Two hours later, we got disproportionately large trades on in SQQQ and TQQQ on a dark pool.&nbsp;
TQQQ - 700,000 shares.
SQQQ - 2,300,000 shares.
Based on what I explained above, these two disproportionately large, round-number trades present as opening trades that were directionally the same, just as we saw on July 15.&nbsp;Given that we already had a very large trade in QQQ near the low two hours earlier, I concluded that all three trades were all working together and were directionally bullish.&nbsp;But let&rsquo;s dig further.
The SQQQ chart below shows that price made a small double top just before the trade arrived.&nbsp;I also see that we&#39;ve had a decent run up over the past several sessions.&nbsp;Given the technical pattern and the fact that institutions buy low and sell high, this trade suggests it&rsquo;s meant to take SQQQ lower, which is bullish for the underlying QQQ.&nbsp;Given its trade size, one can infer that it&#39;s an opening position.&nbsp; As such, I think it&#39;s a new short.&nbsp;
<img alt="untitled_design_42.png" src="https://www.benzinga.com/files/images/2023/October/02/untitled_design_42.png" style="height:313px; width:624px" />
TQQQ didn&rsquo;t trade as much inventory as SQQQ, but just like SQQQ, it was the largest trade since August 28.&nbsp;Conclusion:&nbsp;Institutions are doing the same thing that they did when both appeared together on August 28 and July 15,&nbsp;positioning for a reversal.&nbsp;This time it&rsquo;s bullish.
July 15 &ndash; Directionally Bearish
TQQQ &ndash; 1,200,000 shares
SQQQ &ndash; 3,000,000 shares
August 28 &ndash; Directionally Bullish
TQQQ - 1,300,000 shares.
SQQQ - 2,500,000 shares.
Sept 29 &ndash; TBD - But I think directionally bullish
TQQQ - 700,000 shares.
SQQQ - 2,300,000 shares.
<img alt="untitled_design_43.png" src="https://www.benzinga.com/files/images/2023/October/02/untitled_design_43.png" style="height:313px; width:624px" />
Looking back at the last time this happened on August 28, we can see we got a $15 QQQ rally from August 28-Sept 1.&nbsp; The trades that came in on Friday in SQQQ, TQQQ, and of course the #15 ranked trade in QQQ itself all suggest to me we&#39;ll move higher this week.&nbsp;
From a timing perspective, Friday was EOQ, and with that often comes window dressing.&nbsp; That means institutions scoop up all the big sexy names like AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, and GOOG at the close so they can report to Ma &amp; Pa 401K holder that they own the recognizable names.&nbsp; But what institutions typically do next is take price up on the first of the month to re-sell some or all those shares right back to us at higher prices.&nbsp; Once they&#39;ve redistributed those shares, they can move on with whatever their original plans were and rotate back into the names they want (which may or may not include the mega-caps).&nbsp;
Further supporting this notion is that Friday was the first day in a while that we&#39;ve seen large top-100 ranked trades in the mega-caps.&nbsp;It&#39;s been eerily quiet during this decline of the past two weeks, a characteristic that is common during selloffs.&nbsp;If institutions aren&rsquo;t trading large, they aren&rsquo;t buying large, and when they aren&rsquo;t buying large, prices decline.
Here&#39;s a snippet of Friday&#39;s large megacap trades.&nbsp;Stop by volumeleaders.com any time to visualize these trades.
<img alt="untitled_624_x_158_px.png" src="https://www.benzinga.com/files/images/2023/October/02/untitled_624_x_158_px.png" style="height:158px; width:624px" />
<h3>Review</h3>
Disproportionately large opening trades (presumably) in QQQ, TQQQ, and SQQQ, all within a couple hours of each other, all after days of selling in QQQ, all on the last trading day of the month, and accompanied by large trades in mega-caps.
Institutional positioning suggests a rally in QQQ is imminent.&nbsp;Assuming we get one, I don&#39;t know how high it will go or how long it will last, but institutions will at minimum need to spend enough time higher than Friday&rsquo;s close to sell the mega-caps they picked up at EOQ.&nbsp;
Postscript: High-Yield bonds also posted a disproportionately large trade after hours on Friday.&nbsp;Exactly 5M shares traded, the largest trade since July 10 and ranked 59th largest since inception.&nbsp;This trade is consistent with an opening buy as price sits on the convergence of the 4H Keltner bottom and the daily Keltner bottom, an area where buying is more common than selling.&nbsp; Buying junk bonds would be a risk-on signal for stocks in the near term and supportive of bullish positioning in QQQ.
<img alt="untitled_design_44.png" src="https://www.benzinga.com/files/images/2023/October/02/untitled_design_44.png" style="height:313px; width:624px" />
<img alt="untitled_design_45.png" src="https://www.benzinga.com/files/images/2023/October/02/untitled_design_45.png" style="height:525px; width:624px" />
DISCLAIMER:&nbsp;If at any point, QQQ trades below $357.44, this thesis is wrong and something else is at play.&nbsp;Doing so would suggest these trades are not being defended, thereby nullifying any near-term bullish thesis.
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Identifying Reversals Using Leveraged ETFs

Press Releases

ProShares Celebrates 15-Year Anniversary of TQQQ, the World's Largest Leveraged ETF

4월 관세로 인한 매도세로 나스닥 100 지수가 하락하자, 소매 투자자들은 <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets" target="_blank" rel="noopener">빠른 시장 반등</a>에 베팅해 수십억 달러를 울트라 레버리지 기술 ETF에 투자하면서 위험에 투자했다.
나스닥 100을 추종하는 세계 최대 ETF인 인베스코 QQQ 트러스트(NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>)에는 지난 목요일(10일) 44억 4천만 달러가 유입되어 2021년 3월 이후 하루 최대 유입액을 기록했지만, 실제 불꽃놀이는 기술 시장의 가장 레버리지가 높은 곳에서 일어났다.
이러한 거래 활동은 특히 나스닥 100 지수의 수익률을 높이기 위해 고안된 종목에서 저가매수 욕구가 대담하게 부활한 것으로 보인다.
<h3>TQQQ, 기술주 저가매수 마니아의 인기 상품</h3>
ETF닷컴(ETF.com)의 수석 애널리스트인 수밋 로이(Sumit Roy)는 "트레이더들 사이에서 ‘저가매수' 대상 1위인 프로셰어즈 울트라프로 QQQ(NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TQQQ#NASDAQ">TQQQ</a>)에서 이런 현상이 가장 뚜렷하게 나타났다&#8221;고 말했다.
TQQQ 펀드는 2월 고점 대비 4월 초 저점까지 57% 급락했지만 트레이더들은 계속 자금을 쏟아 부었다.
2월 19일 이후 TQQQ에는 71억 달러가 순유입되었으며, 그중 31억 달러는 도널드 트럼프 대통령이 모든 무역 파트너에 대한 새로운 &#8216;상호관세&#8217;를 발표하며 무역전쟁 공포를 재점화한 4월 2일 이후에 유입된 자금이다.
이러한 관심의 급증은 단순한 저가매수뿐만 아니라 레버리지 저가매수를 반영하며, 지정학적 불확실성과 변동성 확대로 정의되는 시장 환경에서 위험에 대한 욕구가 커지고 있음을 강조한다.
4월 3일에 TQQQ ETF는 16% 하락했고, 4월 4일에는 18% 추가 하락했다. 그리고 불과 5일 뒤에는 35%나 급등했다.
4월 9일 저점 대비 30% 가까이 급등하며 손실을 만회했지만 여전히 2월 고점 대비 45% 낮은 수준에 머물러 있다. 나스닥 100 지수는 같은 기간 동안 최악의 지점에서 23% 하락했다.
<h3>역사는 반복되나? 2022~24년 477% 오른 TQQQ</h3>
현재 상황은 2022년 약세장을 연상시킨다. 당시 나스닥 100 지수는 공격적인 연준 금리 인상으로 고점에서 저점까지 35% 하락했다.
TQQQ는 그 기간 동안 무려 80%나 하락했지만, 정확한 바닥을 포착한 투자자들에게는 엄청난 보상이 돌아갔다. 이 ETF는 2022년 저점과 2024년 12월 최고점 사이에 477% 상승했다.
"이러한 유형의 막대한 이익에 대한 전망은 트레이더들이 ETF에 돈을 쏟아 붓도록 유혹하고 있다. 물론 지난번과 같은 상황이 펼쳐질 것이라는 보장은 없다. 사실 TQQQ에서 믿을 수 있는 것은 변동성뿐이다.&#8221;
관세와 관련된 광범위한 경제 불확실성에도 불구하고 트레이더들은 강한 상승 잠재력을 찾기 위해 변동성 확대에 기대며 흔들리지 않는 모습이다. 최근 흐름에서 얻을 수 있는 교훈은 투자자들이 시장의 우여곡절을 이겨낼 준비가 되어 있다는 점이다.
이미지: Midjourney를 통해 인공지능으로 생성
다른 트레이더들보다 30분 일찍 시장 움직임에 대한 독점 뉴스를 받아보세요.
Benzinga Pro의 독점 뉴스를 통해 수백만 명의 다른 트레이더보다 더 빠르게 유용한 투자 뉴스를 확인할 수 있습니다. <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/pro/register?t=be2bewe5mibe3bz3&amp;utm_source=bz-kor">여기를 클릭</a>하여 14일 무료 체험을 시작하세요.

나스닥 100 지수에 3배 레버리지 노출을 제공하는 ProShares UltraPro QQQ(NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TQQQ#NASDAQ">TQQQ</a>)는 수요일(18일) 연준 <a href=""https://www.benzinga.com/news/econ-s/24/12/42561549/fed-slashes-interest-rates-by-0-25-as-predicted-december-dot-plot-flags-only-2-potential-cuts-in-2025"">12월 FOMC 회의</a> 이후 약 10.81% 하락한 82.09달러로 마감했다.
알아야 할 내용: TQQQ ETF는 기술주에 대한 긍정적인 전망에 민감하지만, 연준의 신중한 통화정책 완화에 대한 신중한 전망으로 인해 기술주가 고전하면서 하락세를 보였다.
연준이 연방기금 금리를 4.25%~4.5% 범위로 0.25%p 인하했지만, 2025년에 단 두 차례의 추가 금리인하가 있을 것이라는 전망에 투자자들의 열기가 꺾였다.
이 기사도 읽어보세요: <a href="https://kr.benzinga.com/news/usa/stocks/%ED%8C%8C%EC%9B%94%EC%9D%B4-%EC%8B%9C%EC%9E%A5-%EA%B8%89%EB%9D%BD-%EC%9C%A0%EB%B0%9C-vix%EA%B0%80-58-%EA%B8%89%EB%93%B1-%EC%A3%BC%EA%B0%80-%ED%95%98%EB%9D%BD-%EB%8B%AC%EB%9F%AC-2%EB%85%84-%EB%A7%8C/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">파월이 시장 급락 유발: VIX가 58% 급등, 주가 하락, 달러 2년 만에 최고치, 비트코인 급락</a>
2025년 근원 PCE 인플레이션이 2.5%로 예상되는 등 인플레이션 기대치가 높아지면서 성장주에 대한 부담도 커졌다.
연준이 시장 예상보다 금리인하 속도가 느리다는 신호를 보내면서 차입 비용 절감의 혜택을 받는 기술주 지수는 역풍에 직면했다. 수요일의 하락은 지속적인 고금리 환경에서 성장 부문의 번영 능력에 대한 새로운 불확실성을 반영할 수 있다.
<a href="https://benzinga.grsm.io/register174">Benzinga Pro</a> 데이터에 따르면, TQQQ의 52주 최고가는 $93.79, 52주 최저가는 45.47달러다.
사진 출처: Golden Dayz via Shutterstock
Benzinga Pro의 독점 뉴스 및 도구로 수익률을 높이세요.
독점 속보 및 스캐너와 같은 Benzinga Pro의 강력한 도구 세트로 다른 트레이더보다 우위를 점하세요. <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/pro/register?t=be2bewe5mibe3bz3&amp;utm_source=bz-kor">여기를 클릭</a>하여 14일 무료 체험을 시작하세요.

연방준비제도(연준)는 다가오는 연방공개시장위원회(FOMC) 회의에서 금리를 인하할 것으로 예상되며, 그 결정은 수요일 <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/09/40878710/investors-bet-on-50-basis-point-rate-cut-wall-street-analysts-urge-caution-this-is-">동부 표준시 오후 2시</a>에 발표될 예정이다.
이 중앙은행은 2023년 9월부터 연방기금 금리를 5.25%~5.5%로 유지해 왔으며, 이번 주 금리 인하는 2020년 3월 이후 처음으로 치솟는 인플레이션에 맞서기 위해 시행된 제한적인 통화 정책 기조에서 뚜렷한 전환을 의미한다.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">금리 인하 기대: 연준은 25 또는 50bp를 선택할 것인가?</h3>
모두가 궁금해하는 핵심 질문은 금리 인하 폭이다. 연준이 신중하게 25bp(베이시스 포인트) 인하를 선택할 것인지, 아니면 이전 금리 인하 사이클의 시작에서처럼 과감하게 50bp 인하를 단행할 것인지가 주목된다.
현재 시장 정서는 월스트리트 경제학자들의 컨센서스와 다르다. CME의 페드워치(FedWatch) 도구에 따르면 트레이더들은 50bp 인하의 가능성을 63%로 가격에 반영하고 있다.
반면 월스트리트 애널리스트들 사이에서는 더 보수적인 25bp 인하에 대한 압도적인 합의가 존재하지만, JP모건 체이스는 50bp 인하를 예측하는 주목할 만한 예외이다.
이 미국 최대 은행에 따르면, 금리는 중립 수준보다 약 150bp 높다. 따라서 매번 회의마다 25bp 인하를 단행하면 정책이 중립적 입장으로 돌아가는 데 거의 1년이 걸린다.
이는 특히 돌이켜보면 7월 시작이 더 적절했을 수 있다는 점을 감안할 때 사이클 시작 시 금리 인하를 우선적으로 적용해야 한다는 주장을 강화한다.
연준이 25bp 또는 50bp 인하를 선택하든, 애널리스트들은 2024년과 2025년까지 일련의 인하가 계속될 것으로 예상하고 있다.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">금리 인하 이전의 투자자 움직임: 투자자들이 지난주에 가장 많이 구매한 상위 10개 ETF</h3>
이번에 예상되는 금리 인하를 앞두고 투자자들은 포트폴리오를 재편성하여 금리가 낮은 환경에서 혜택을 볼 수 있는 자산으로의 전략적 이동을 나타내는 다양한 상장지수펀드(ETF)에 유입이 크게 발생했다.
이러한 트렌드를 파악하기 위해 벤징가(Benzinga)는 베타파이(VettaFi)의 etfdb.com 데이터를 분석했으며, 투자자들이 가치 중심의 ETF를 선호하는 강한 경향을 보였음을 발견했다.
그 중에서도 iShares MSCI EAFE Value ETF(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EFV#NYSE">EFV</a>)와 SPDR Portfolio S&amp;P 500 Value ETF(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPYV#NYSE">SPYV</a>)가 주목받으며, 이는 매크로 환경 변화에 따라 안정성과 방어적 헤지를 제공할 수 있는 자산으로의 선호를 나타낸다.
또한, 전통적인 금리 인하 수혜자인 금도 투자자들의 관심을 끌며, 지난주 동안 가격이 여러 차례 사상 최고가를 기록했고, SPDR Gold Shares(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>)로의 강력한 유입이 이를 뒷받침했다.
기술 섹터, 특히 반도체에 대한 관심도 주목할 만하며, VanEck Semiconductor ETF(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SMH#NYSE">SMH</a>)가 상당한 유입을 보였다.
추가적으로, 투자자들은 나스닥 100에 대한 투기적이고 레버리지 전략을 추구했으며, 이는 50bp 인하 가능성이 높아졌다고 해석되었을 가능성이 있다.
투자자들은 ProShares Ultra QQQ(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QLD#NYSE">QLD</a>)와 ProShares UltraPro QQQ(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TQQQ#NYSE">TQQQ</a>)를 구매했다. QLD는 나스닥 100의 일일 성과를 두 배로 제공하고, TQQQ는 세 배로 제공한다.
마지막으로, 인기 있는 소형주 펀드인 iShares Russell 2000 ETF(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IWM#NYSE">IWM</a>)가 5억 달러 이상의 유입을 받아, 투자자들이 차입 비용 감소로 혜택을 받을 것으로 예상되는 소형 국내 기업들에 대한 관심이 높아지고 있음을 나타냈다.
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes">
<table style="overflow:auto; height: 90px; display: block;">
<thead>
<tr>
<th>ETF 이름</th>
<th>1주일 유입 ($MM)</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>iShares MSCI EAFE Value ETF</td>
<td>$1,135.48</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>SPDR Portfolio S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPLG#NYSE">SPLG</a>)</td>
<td>$820.85</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Vanguard Intermediate-Term Corporate Bond ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VCIT#NYSE">VCIT</a>)</td>
<td>$818.30</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>SPDR Portfolio S&amp;P 500 Value ETF</td>
<td>$775.06</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>VanEck Semiconductor ETF</td>
<td>$717.11</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VOO#NYSE">VOO</a>)</td>
<td>$698.27</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>SPDR Gold Shares</td>
<td>$648.41</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>ProShares Ultra QQQ</td>
<td>$646.66</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>ProShares UltraPro QQQ</td>
<td>$560.15</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>iShares Russell 2000 ETF </td>
<td>$552.24</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</figure>
지금 읽기:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/09/40903154/13-etfs-to-own-as-fed-set-to-cut-rates-analysts-highlight-utilities-real-estate-and">금리 인하를 앞두고 꼭 가져야 할 13개 ETF: 애널리스트가 유틸리티, 부동산 등을 강조</a></li>
</ul>
이미지는 Midjourney를 통해 생성된 인공지능 이미지입니다.
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