ProShares UltraPro QQQ에 대한 매도 수량은 투자자에게 ProShares UltraPro QQQ의 주식 하락에 베팅하는 정도를 알려줍니다. 매도 수량 데이터는 2주마다 업데이트됩니다.

ProShares UltraPro QQQ (NASDAQ:TQQQ), 공매도 수량 보고

ProShares UltraPro QQQ

Technology

Consumer Cyclical

Healthcare

Communication Services

Industrials

Consumer Defensive

Basic Materials

Utilities

Other

Energy

Real Estate

The Fund invests in financial instruments that ProShare Advisors believes, in combination, should produce daily returns consistent with the Daily Target. The Index is constructed and maintained by Nasdaq Inc. (the Index Provider). The Index includes 100 of the largest domestic and international non-financial companies listed on The Nasdaq Stock Market based on market capitalization. The Index reflects companies across major industry groups including computer hardware and software, telecommunications, retail/wholesale trade and biotechnology. Companies selected for inclusion are non-financial companies that meet appropriate trading volumes and other eligibility criteria. The Index is published under the Bloomberg ticker symbol NDX.

Macro Economic Events

Sector ETFs

Bonds

Broad U.S. Equity ETFs

Econ #s

Economics

Federal Reserve

Tech

ETFs

SPLG

SPYV

TQQQ

VCIT

연방준비제도(연준)는 다가오는 연방공개시장위원회(FOMC) 회의에서 금리를 인하할 것으로 예상되며, 그 결정은 수요일 동부 표준시 오후 2시에 발표될 예정이다.

연준의 금리 인하 결정이 내려지기 전에 투자자들이 비밀리에 매수한 10가지 ETF

The Federal Reserve is widely anticipated to cut interest rates at its upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting, with the decision set for release on Wednesday <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/09/40878710/investors-bet-on-50-basis-point-rate-cut-wall-street-analysts-urge-caution-this-is-">at 2 p.m. ET.</a>
The central bank has maintained the federal funds rate at 5.25%-5.5% since September 2023 and this week&#8217;s rate reduction would be the first since March 2020, signaling a marked shift from the restrictive monetary policy stance implemented to combat soaring inflation.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Rate Cut Expectations: Will The Fed Opt For 25 Or 50 Basis Points?</h3>
The key question on everyone&#8217;s mind is the magnitude of the rate cut. Will the Fed opt for a cautious 25-basis-point reduction, or will it make a bolder move with a 50-basis-point cut, as seen at the start of previous rate-cutting cycles?
Market sentiment currently differs from Wall Street economist consensus. Traders are pricing in a 63% probability of a 50-basis-point cut, as per the CME FedWatch tool.
Among Wall Street analysts, instead, there is an overwhelming consensus on a more conservative 25-basis-point reduction, but JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. stands out as the notable exception, forecasting a 50-basis-point cut.
According to the biggest U.S. bank, interest rates are about 150 basis points above neutral levels. Therefore, a 25-basis-point cut per meeting would take almost a year to align the policy back to a neutral stance. 
This strengthens the case for frontloading rate cuts at the start of the cycle, particularly given that, in hindsight, a July commencement might have been more appropriate.
Regardless of whether the Fed chooses a 25 or 50-basis-point reduction, analysts expect a series of cuts to continue through 2024 and 2025.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Investor Moves Ahead of the Rate Cut: Top 10 ETFs Investors Bought Last Week</h3>
In the week leading up to this highly anticipated rate cut, investors reshuffled their portfolios, resulting in significant inflows into various exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that may indicate a strategic tilt toward assets poised to benefit from a lower interest rate environment.
To identify these trends, Benzinga analyzed data from VettaFi&#8217;s etfdb.com, and found that investors displayed a strong preference for value-oriented ETFs. 
Notable among these were the iShares MSCI EAFE Value ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EFV#NYSE">EFV</a>) and SPDR Portfolio S&amp;P 500 Value ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPYV#NYSE">SPYV</a>), signaling a tilt towards assets that may offer stability and a defensive hedge as the macro regime shifts.
As a traditional beneficiary of lower interest rates, gold has also been on investors&#8217; radar, with prices repeatedly hitting record highs over the last week, supported by strong inflows into the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>). 
Also worth noting is the interest in the tech sector, particularly semiconductors, with the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SMH#NYSE">SMH</a>) seeing substantial inflows.
Additionally, investors pursued speculative and leveraged strategies on the Nasdaq 100, likely interpreted as a bet to the rising chance of a larger 50-basis-point cut. 
Investors bought into both ProShares Ultra QQQ (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QLD#NYSE">QLD</a>), which aims to deliver twice the daily performance of the Nasdaq 100, and the ProShares UltraPro QQQ (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TQQQ#NYSE">TQQQ</a>), which targets three times the daily performance of the index.
Rounding out the list, the popular small-cap fund iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IWM#NYSE">IWM</a>) attracted over half a billion dollars in inflows last week, signaling investors&#8217; growing interest in smaller, domestically-focused companies as they are poised to benefit from declining borrowing costs.
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>ETF Name</th>
<th>1 Week Inflows ($MM)</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>iShares MSCI EAFE Value ETF</td>
<td>$1,135.48</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>SPDR Portfolio S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPLG#NYSE">SPLG</a>)</td>
<td>$820.85</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Vanguard Intermediate-Term Corporate Bond ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VCIT#NYSE">VCIT</a>)</td>
<td>$818.30</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>SPDR Portfolio S&amp;P 500 Value ETF</td>
<td>$775.06</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>VanEck Semiconductor ETF</td>
<td>$717.11</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VOO#NYSE">VOO</a>)</td>
<td>$698.27</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>SPDR Gold Shares</td>
<td>$648.41</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>ProShares Ultra QQQ</td>
<td>$646.66</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>ProShares UltraPro QQQ</td>
<td>$560.15</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>iShares Russell 2000 ETF </td>
<td>$552.24</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</figure>
Read now: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/09/40903154/13-etfs-to-own-as-fed-set-to-cut-rates-analysts-highlight-utilities-real-estate-and">13 ETFs To Own As Fed Set To Cut Rates: Analysts Highlight Utilities, Real Estate, And More</a></li>
</ul>
Image created using artificial intelligence via Midjourney.

10 ETFs Investors Secretly Bought Before The Fed's Make-Or-Break Interest Rate Call

Microsoft Corp&nbsp;(NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>) has introduced a new Windows API, DirectSR, aimed at revolutionizing how game developers incorporate AI-upscaling technologies from leading companies like&nbsp;Nvidia Corp&nbsp;(NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>),&nbsp;Advanced Micro Devices, Inc&nbsp;(NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMD#NASDAQ">AMD</a>), and&nbsp;Intel Corp&nbsp;(NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/INTC#NASDAQ">INTC</a>)&nbsp;<a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/01/36783057/microsofts-major-gaming-shake-up-1-900-layoffs-and-leadership-changes-in-post-acquisition-strategy" rel="noreferrer noopener">into their games</a>.&nbsp;
As program manager Joshua Tucker described, DirectSR is the crucial connection facilitating games to utilize super-resolution technologies.&nbsp;
This new API promises to deliver a smoother and more efficient gaming experience compatible across various hardware platforms, the Verge&nbsp;<a target="_blank" href="https://www.theverge.com/2024/2/29/24086443/microsoft-directsr-super-resolution-api" rel="noreferrer noopener">reports</a>.
The essence of DirectSR lies in its ability to support multi-vendor super-resolution (SR) technologies through a unified set of inputs and outputs.&nbsp;
This approach enables developers to implement a single code path to activate diverse solutions, including Nvidia&#8217;s DLSS Super Resolution, AMD&#8217;s FidelityFX Super Resolution, and Intel&#8217;s XeSS.&nbsp;
The advantage for developers is significant, as it absolves them from the need to individually code for each upscaling technology, streamlining the development process.
This announcement follows the discovery of an &#8220;Automatic Super Resolution&#8221; feature in a test version of Windows 11, which suggested the use of AI to enhance the smoothness and detail of supported games.&nbsp;
Microsoft fired 1,900 employees across Activision Blizzard and Xbox in January to create a more sustainable cost structure, equating to about 8% of its Gaming division.&nbsp;
Blizzard president Mike Ybarra and Allen Adham, Blizzard&#8217;s chief design officer and co-founder, also departed.
Blizzard canceled its previously announced survival game.
Investors can gain exposure to the AI driven FAANG stocks via&nbsp;ProShares UltraPro QQQ&nbsp;(NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TQQQ#NASDAQ">TQQQ</a>) and&nbsp;Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1&nbsp;(NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>), which gained 9-25% year-to-date.&nbsp;
Price Action:&nbsp;MSFT shares are trading lower by 0.37% at $412.12 at last check Friday.&nbsp;
Also Read:&nbsp;<a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/23/12/36176059/microsoft-strikes-historic-union-deal-on-ai-usage-but-what-does-it-mean-for-workers" rel="noreferrer noopener">Microsoft Strikes Historic Union Deal on AI Usage, But What Does It Mean for Workers?</a>
Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
Photo via Shutterstock

News

Media

AAPL

AMZN

GOOGL

INTC

MSFT

NFLX

NVDA

Microsoft Unveils DirectSR API, A Boost for AI-Upscaling with Nvidia, AMD, and Intel

ProShares UltraPro QQQ (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TQQQ#NASDAQ">TQQQ</a>) shares are trading lower by 5.1% to $56.50 Tuesday morning. The leveraged ETF is falling after inflation for January 2024 dipped slightly but missed <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/econ-s/24/02/37092707/us-inflation-rate-runs-hot-in-january-puts-fed-rate-cut-bets-in-jeopardy">economists&#8217; forecasts</a>.
The annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rate fell to 3.1%, down from 3.4%, but higher than the expected 2.9%. Monthly CPI increased by 0.3%, surpassing the expected 0.2%. Core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, held steady at 3.8%, missing the anticipated drop to 3.7%&#8230;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/econ-s/24/02/37092707/us-inflation-rate-runs-hot-in-january-puts-fed-rate-cut-bets-in-jeopardy">Read More</a>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Why This Matters</h2>
When economic data misses forecasts, it can lead to uncertainty and volatility in the market. Investors often rely on economic forecasts to make investment decisions, and when the actual data deviates from these forecasts, it can trigger reactions in the market.
The fact that the core CPI inflation rate, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, held steady may suggest persistent inflationary pressures. This could lead to concerns about potential future interest rate hikes, or a lack of rate cutes, by the Federal Reserve to combat inflation, which could impact borrowing costs for companies and dampen economic growth expectations.
See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/startups/24/02/37097064/snapchat-previously-rejected-mark-zuckerbergs-3b-buyout-now-abysmal-earnings-worry-investors-that-me">Snapchat Previously Rejected Mark Zuckerberg&#8217;s $3B Buyout</a>
According to data from <a href="https://benzinga.grsm.io/register174">Benzinga Pro</a>, TQQQ has a 52-week high of $61.14 and a 52-week low of $20.13.

Why Nasdaq-100 Leveraged ETF TQQQ Is Falling

<ul>
<li>UPRO</li>
<li>BB</li>
<li>TSLA</li>
<li>TQQQ</li>
<li>SPAM</li>
<li>QQQ</li>
<li>XBI</li>
</ul>
Data from <a href="https://swaggystocks.com/dashboard/wallstreetbets/ticker-sentiment">https://swaggystocks.com/dashboard/wallstreetbets/ticker-sentiment</a>
&nbsp;

Trading Ideas

SPAM

TSLA

UPRO

Top 7 Trending Stocks On WallStreetBets As Of December 21, 2023 (Via Swaggy Stocks)

<ul>
<li>TSLA</li>
<li>QQQ</li>
<li>AAPL</li>
<li>NET</li>
<li>CORN</li>
<li>SOFI</li>
<li>IWM</li>
<li>TQQQ</li>
<li>MRNA</li>
<li>UPST</li>
</ul>
Data from <a href="https://swaggystocks.com/dashboard/wallstreetbets/ticker-sentiment">https://swaggystocks.com/dashboard/wallstreetbets/ticker-sentiment</a>
&nbsp;

CORN

MRNA

SOFI

UPST

Top 10 Trending Stocks On WallStreetBets As Of December 14, 2023 (Via Swaggy Stocks)

In 2023, retail investors made a comeback.
The stock market was flooded during the COVID-19 pandemic by a wave of novice investors, <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/23/02/30876594/chasing-the-robinhood-generation-are-young-retail-investors-still-betting-on-the-market-1">attracted by stimulus checks, extra free time and the new possibilities</a> granted by mobile trading platforms.
Approximately 30 million new brokerage accounts were opened between 2020 and 2021 in the U.S. alone. While some of these investors <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/fintech/23/11/35781373/exclusive-investor-appetite-shifts-towards-bonds-embracing-small-bites-of-risk">left the market once lockdowns were over, a large share of them stayed</a> and recent data shows they've invested in record levels during 2023.
Although millennial-preferred trading platforms such as Robinhood Markets Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/HOOD#NASDAQ">HOOD</a>) lost a big share of users between 2021 and 2022, many young investors migrated to legacy brokers like Fidelity, Charles Schwab Corporation (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SCHW#NYSE">SCHW</a>) and its subsidiary TD Ameritrade, with new knowledge and experience about the market's ups and downs.
By mid-2021, retail investors accounted for about 10% of the market's trading volume; a big drop from the 15% reached in September 2020, when pandemic-related lockdowns and checks were at their peak, according to Reuters.
In 2022, the average daily trading volume in U.S. stocks coming from retail investors was even lower than in 2021, reaching $13.8 billion against $14.2 billion the previous year.
Yet retail trading picked up in 2023. By February, average daily trading volume from the retail cohort reached a peak of $1.51 billion, beating every other historical peak, including those reached during the heights of COVID-induced trading.
According to a Gallup survey, the percentage of Americans holding stocks has risen consistently since the pandemic, and currently amounts to 61% of the population. It continues, however, below levels seen before the 2008 financial crash.
A recent report by investment firm Public used the platform's trading data to analyze the behavior of retail traders.
Public's investors followed a trend of diversification into different asset classes this year with <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/money/how-to-invest-in-artificial-intelligence">AI-thematic ETFs</a> seeing a major boost in interest following the recent AI boom. Asset class diversity among retail investors rose by 25% on Public.
The ETF share of the total trading market also grew in 2023, showing a shift away from single-stock investment into more traditionally safe strategies <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/23/11/35798096/investors-now-more-concerned-about-geopolitical-conflict-than-inflation-bank-of-america-survey-revea">in light of the political and economic volatility experienced of recent times</a>.
In the past three months, the top three ETFs by trading volume were ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SQQQ#NASDAQ">SQQQ</a>), ProShares UltraPro QQQ (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TQQQ#NASDAQ">TQQQ</a>) and SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>).
In a recent exclusive for Benzinga, Katie Perry, general manager of IR innovation at Public, said <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/23/10/35337219/katie-perry-resilient-retail-investors-enter-a-new-phase-of-growth-heres-how-their-participation-in">retail investors are detaching from the meme-stock investor stereotype</a> and growing into a more mature profile.
Fixed-income investments such as bonds and stocks that give dividends became a new preference of this cohort, who's looking to build a less risky long-term investment strategy.
Illustration made with Midjourney AI.

Markets

Personal Finance

General

HOOD

SCHW

SQQQ

Retail Investing Peaks In 2023: How Small-Time Trading Matured From Meme Stock Frenzy

We performed a screening of Leveraged ETFs to determine what funds had the largest change in net assets on the week, according to data from <a href="http://etfdb.com">etfdb.com</a>.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Winners</h2>
ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SQQQ#NYSE">SQQQ</a>)
SPTS added $185.27 million in net assets over the trailing week.
The ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ offers 3x daily short leverage to the NASDAQ-100 Index.
SPHY has $3.76 billion in AUM and an expense ratio of 0.95%.&nbsp;
SPHY added $3.25 billion in net assets YTD.
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TMF#NYSE">TMF</a>)
TMF added $50.70 million in net assets over the trailing week.
The Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares offers 3x long leveraged exposure to the broad-based NYSE 20 Year Plus Treasury Bond Index.
TMF has $2.23 billion in AUM and an expense ratio of 1.06%.
TMF added $2.88 billion in net assets, YTD.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Losers</h2>
Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3x Shares (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SOXL#NYSE">SOXL</a>)
SOXL is down $254.56 million in AUM over the trailing week.
The Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3x Shares offers 3x daily long leverage to the PHLX Semiconductor Index.
The fund has $6.64 billion in AUM and an expense ratio of .94%. The fund is spread across 31 companies with the top 10 holdings accounting for 60.98% of the fund's value.
ITB's largest holdings are Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMD#NASDAQ">AMD</a>) and Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AVGO#NASDAQ">AVGO</a>) making up 16.13% and 6.82% of the fund, respectively.
SOXL is down $1.07 billion in AUM YTD.
ProShares UltraPro QQQ (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TQQQ#NASDAQ">TQQQ</a>)
TQQQ is down $140.56 million in AUM on the week.
The ProShares UltraPro QQQ offers 3x daily long leverage to the NASDAQ-100 Index.
The fund has $17.56 billion in AUM and an expense ratio of 0.88%.&nbsp; The fund is spread across 128 companies with the top 10 holdings accounting for 48.70% of the fund's value.
ITB's largest holdings are Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>) and Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>) making up 4.59% and 4.10% of the fund, respectively.
YTD, TQQQQ is down $4.55 billion in AUM.

AVGO

SOXL

Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares

Proshares' Short QQQ Play Tops The List This Week - ETF Winners And Losers: Leveraged Flows

ProShares UltraPro QQQ (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/tqqq#NASDAQ">TQQQ</a>)&nbsp;shares are trading lower by 1.09% to $35.55 Thursday afternoon. The ETF is falling amid&nbsp;recent strength in <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/23/10/35093711/vix-soars-to-5-month-high-what-surging-treasury-yields-mean-for-stocks">Treasury yields</a>.
For the unitiated, per ProShares, TQQQ&nbsp;seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, that correspond to three times (3x) the&nbsp;daily performance&nbsp;of the&nbsp;NASDAQ-100&nbsp;(NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/qqq#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>) ETF.
Why It Matters
Rising Treasury yields can lead to higher borrowing costs for corporations, which can negatively impact their profitability. This, in turn, can lead to lower stock prices for the companies included in the NASDAQ-100 Index and, consequently, for TQQQ, which seeks to track the index&#39;s performance.
TQQQ is heavily weighted toward the technology <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/money/best-sectors-to-invest-in-right-now/">sector</a>, and technology stocks are often sensitive to changes in interest rates. Higher interest rates can lead to higher discount rates applied to future cash flows, potentially reducing the present value of future earnings for tech companies.
This can lead to a decline in the stock prices of tech-related firms, which are major constituents of the NASDAQ-100 Index.
See Also:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/23/09/34944429/s-p-500-nasdaq-set-to-rebound-despite-soaring-bond-yields-analyst-warns-of-volatility-persisting">U.S. Stocks Struggle As Fed Sounds Hawkish</a>
According to data from&nbsp;<a href="https://benzinga.grsm.io/register174">Benzinga Pro</a>, TQQQ&nbsp;has a 52-week high of $47.14 and a 52-week low of $16.10.

What's Going On With Nasdaq-100 Leveraged ETF TQQQ

<h3>Identifying Reversals Using Leveraged ETFs</h3>
<ul>
<li>Trade signatures offer valuable insights into institutional positioning and intent.</li>
<li>Institutions follow certain patterns when opening and closing leveraged trades.</li>
<li>Institutional behavior on certain dates is predictable.</li>
<li>Institutional positioning suggests we begin October with a rally.</li>
</ul>
<h3>Leveraged ETFs</h3>
Leveraged ETFs are ETFs that aim to return anywhere from -3x to +3x daily returns relative to its underlying ETF.&nbsp;For example, TQQQ (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/tqqq#NASDAQ">TQQQ</a>) is 3x leverage against QQQ (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/qqq#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>) and will return 3% for every 1% return on QQQ.&nbsp;Likewise, SQQQ&nbsp;(NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/sqqq#NASDAQ">SQQQ</a>) is the 3x inverse leverage against QQQ and will return 3% for every 1% decline on QQQ.&nbsp;But these ETFs suffer from decay and are not meant to be held for long periods of time.&nbsp;Typically you&rsquo;d only want to hold when the expected move of the underlying is substantial enough to offset the decay that would be suffered during that period.&nbsp;Typically this means holding for hours or days, not weeks or months.&nbsp;Chart any leveraged ETF and you can see that over the long run, they all approach zero.&nbsp;This is by design.&nbsp;
But in short bursts, they can be very profitable.&nbsp;Institutions trade these leveraged ETFs at key junctures when they&rsquo;re planning sharp moves in either direction.&nbsp;Detecting when institutions trade these instruments with size can provide valuable insight about the next move in the underlying.
<h3>Institutional Trade Patterns Using Leveraged ETFs</h3>
After countless hours of observing institutional trades using <a href="Volumeleaders.com" style="color:#0563c1">Volumeleaders.com</a>, a pattern has emerged.&nbsp; Allow me to explain.
When trading at or near local lows and seeking a reversal, institutions will:
<ul>
<li>Build position in the underlying as price declines, create a base, and set a low.</li>
<li>Initiate a short rally, then pullback above the prior low.</li>
<li>Add long leverage on the pullback, followed by longer/stronger rally.</li>
<li>Close long leverage after the stronger rally, signifying its end.</li>
<li>Consolidate.&nbsp;Chop.&nbsp;Establish one more nominal high.&nbsp;Close longs in the underlying as price exhausts.</li>
</ul>
Institutions follow the same process after local highs are made, but in reverse:&nbsp;
<ul>
<li>Build a short position in the underlying.</li>
<li>Initiate a shallow decline, then retrace up.</li>
<li>Add short leverage on the retrace followed by a stronger/steeper decline.&nbsp;</li>
<li>Close short leverage after the sharp decline, signifying its end.</li>
<li>Consolidate.&nbsp; Chop.&nbsp;Establish one more spike low.&nbsp;Close shorts in the underlying as price exhausts.&nbsp;</li>
</ul>
Aside:&nbsp;I&rsquo;m not an Elliott wave practitioner myself, but those that employ EW methodologies in their trading would see leverage trade heavily before and after wave 3 or C, as those are the sharpest moves in any wave structure.&nbsp;Likewise, they&#39;d see large positions established and closed in the underlying near the ends of wave 5 or C, as that&rsquo;s when waves terminate and reverse.
But there&#39;s are nuances to this pattern of course.&nbsp;
<h3>Nuance #1</h3>
When leverage comes out of sequence, it&#39;s often meant to be used in reverse.&nbsp;We saw this twice recently in TMF (3x bull TLT) when disproportionately large trades arrived without large positions in the underlying TLT having been established first, thus signaling they were short positions instead of longs.&nbsp;Here&rsquo;s one example below.
<img alt="untitled_design_37.png" src="https://www.benzinga.com/files/images/2023/October/02/untitled_design_37.png" style="height:313px; width:624px" />
<img alt="untitled_design_38.png" src="https://www.benzinga.com/files/images/2023/October/02/untitled_design_38.png" style="height:313px; width:624px" />
<h3>Nuance #2</h3>
When institutions trade the leveraged bull ETFs with size in conjunction with the leveraged bear ETFs with&nbsp;size, it often signifies an immediate reversal.&nbsp;This can be illustrated by trades seen near the summer high on July 15 in TQQQ and SQQQ which both traded together with unusual size, suggesting institutions are either closing one end to open the other, or they&rsquo;re taking longs in one and shorts in the other.&nbsp;In either case, QQQ reversed upon the arrival of these two trades and a high was made.&nbsp;
<img alt="untitled_design_39.png" src="https://www.benzinga.com/files/images/2023/October/02/untitled_design_39.png" style="height:313px; width:624px" />
<img alt="untitled_design_40.png" src="https://www.benzinga.com/files/images/2023/October/02/untitled_design_40.png" style="height:313px; width:624px" />
These two trades were both made at 4:05pm on July 15, perhaps by the same entity.&nbsp;The trade signatures on these trades offer insights into which is taking place (open &amp; close vs two directionally equivalent opening trades made by shorting one leveraged ETF and longing the other), which brings me to nuance #3.
<h3>Nuance #3</h3>
When a large trade is made with nice round number share size, I favor it being an opening trade.&nbsp;For example, a trade of exactly 1M shares is more likely to be an opening trade than a closing trade.&nbsp;I believe this is partially because humans think in round numbers.&nbsp;We want a million shares of this, or a hundred thousand shares of that.&nbsp;We don&rsquo;t seek to open positions that are cumbersome to track.&nbsp;
But conversely, positions are closed along the way as price meets different targets, or as a function of how much liquidity exists at different levels.&nbsp;Trades aren&rsquo;t necessarily closed in one move as they might be opened. The likelihood that an institution wants exactly 1M shares is less than the likelihood that an institution has exactly 1M shares on the books to sell.&nbsp; Positions are often opened in one move, and then closed along the way as partial profits are taken as price nears its target.&nbsp;What&#39;s left at the end is the closing trade.&nbsp;
Further, large round-number blocks are also commonly found as market maker hedges against options positions.&nbsp;If an institution wants to purchase 10,000 option contracts, the hedge will be 1M shares.&nbsp;As time passes and those options decay, and price moves away from the price at which they were traded, the resulting hedge will diminish in size, and market makers will reduce the size of their hedge accordingly to remain delta neutral.&nbsp;When the options are closed out, what remains of the hedge will be closed with it, and that&rsquo;s often an odd-lot number of shares.
Now, sometimes opening trades are odd-lot numbers too.&nbsp;A trade of 1,473,291 shares could be an opening trade or a closing trade.&nbsp;But it&rsquo;s less common that closing trades are nice round numbers.&nbsp;So, if I see a round number of shares on a disproportionately large trade, I assume it&#39;s a new opening trade unless I have reason to believe otherwise.&nbsp;In the example above from July 15, both trades were round number sizes, suggesting they were both opened.&nbsp;
TQQQ &ndash; Exactly 1,200,000 shares.
SQQQ &ndash; Exactly 3,000,000 shares
Simply put, I think they bought SQQQ and shorted TQQQ at the same moment to capture as much of the expected move lower in the underlying QQQ as they could by using both leveraged ETFs concurrently.&nbsp;
<h3>Why Is This Relevant?</h3>
That brings us to Friday&rsquo;s trades in QQQ, TQQQ, and SQQQ.
At 2:09pm we got exactly 2,400,000 shares of QQQ traded on the open market.&nbsp;It ranked 15th largest since inception, making it meaningfully large.&nbsp;It was a round number of shares, and it appeared on the open exchange during regular trading hours, so my interpretation was that it was a hedge against a large options position being opened, though it didn&rsquo;t have to be.&nbsp;More importantly, it appeared near a local low after several days of selling which led me to believe it was bullish positioning for the simple reason that institutions buy low and sell high.&nbsp;
<img alt="untitled_design_41.png" src="https://www.benzinga.com/files/images/2023/October/02/untitled_design_41.png" style="height:313px; width:624px" />
Two hours later, we got disproportionately large trades on in SQQQ and TQQQ on a dark pool.&nbsp;
TQQQ - 700,000 shares.
SQQQ - 2,300,000 shares.
Based on what I explained above, these two disproportionately large, round-number trades present as opening trades that were directionally the same, just as we saw on July 15.&nbsp;Given that we already had a very large trade in QQQ near the low two hours earlier, I concluded that all three trades were all working together and were directionally bullish.&nbsp;But let&rsquo;s dig further.
The SQQQ chart below shows that price made a small double top just before the trade arrived.&nbsp;I also see that we&#39;ve had a decent run up over the past several sessions.&nbsp;Given the technical pattern and the fact that institutions buy low and sell high, this trade suggests it&rsquo;s meant to take SQQQ lower, which is bullish for the underlying QQQ.&nbsp;Given its trade size, one can infer that it&#39;s an opening position.&nbsp; As such, I think it&#39;s a new short.&nbsp;
<img alt="untitled_design_42.png" src="https://www.benzinga.com/files/images/2023/October/02/untitled_design_42.png" style="height:313px; width:624px" />
TQQQ didn&rsquo;t trade as much inventory as SQQQ, but just like SQQQ, it was the largest trade since August 28.&nbsp;Conclusion:&nbsp;Institutions are doing the same thing that they did when both appeared together on August 28 and July 15,&nbsp;positioning for a reversal.&nbsp;This time it&rsquo;s bullish.
July 15 &ndash; Directionally Bearish
TQQQ &ndash; 1,200,000 shares
SQQQ &ndash; 3,000,000 shares
August 28 &ndash; Directionally Bullish
TQQQ - 1,300,000 shares.
SQQQ - 2,500,000 shares.
Sept 29 &ndash; TBD - But I think directionally bullish
TQQQ - 700,000 shares.
SQQQ - 2,300,000 shares.
<img alt="untitled_design_43.png" src="https://www.benzinga.com/files/images/2023/October/02/untitled_design_43.png" style="height:313px; width:624px" />
Looking back at the last time this happened on August 28, we can see we got a $15 QQQ rally from August 28-Sept 1.&nbsp; The trades that came in on Friday in SQQQ, TQQQ, and of course the #15 ranked trade in QQQ itself all suggest to me we&#39;ll move higher this week.&nbsp;
From a timing perspective, Friday was EOQ, and with that often comes window dressing.&nbsp; That means institutions scoop up all the big sexy names like AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, and GOOG at the close so they can report to Ma &amp; Pa 401K holder that they own the recognizable names.&nbsp; But what institutions typically do next is take price up on the first of the month to re-sell some or all those shares right back to us at higher prices.&nbsp; Once they&#39;ve redistributed those shares, they can move on with whatever their original plans were and rotate back into the names they want (which may or may not include the mega-caps).&nbsp;
Further supporting this notion is that Friday was the first day in a while that we&#39;ve seen large top-100 ranked trades in the mega-caps.&nbsp;It&#39;s been eerily quiet during this decline of the past two weeks, a characteristic that is common during selloffs.&nbsp;If institutions aren&rsquo;t trading large, they aren&rsquo;t buying large, and when they aren&rsquo;t buying large, prices decline.
Here&#39;s a snippet of Friday&#39;s large megacap trades.&nbsp;Stop by volumeleaders.com any time to visualize these trades.
<img alt="untitled_624_x_158_px.png" src="https://www.benzinga.com/files/images/2023/October/02/untitled_624_x_158_px.png" style="height:158px; width:624px" />
<h3>Review</h3>
Disproportionately large opening trades (presumably) in QQQ, TQQQ, and SQQQ, all within a couple hours of each other, all after days of selling in QQQ, all on the last trading day of the month, and accompanied by large trades in mega-caps.
Institutional positioning suggests a rally in QQQ is imminent.&nbsp;Assuming we get one, I don&#39;t know how high it will go or how long it will last, but institutions will at minimum need to spend enough time higher than Friday&rsquo;s close to sell the mega-caps they picked up at EOQ.&nbsp;
Postscript: High-Yield bonds also posted a disproportionately large trade after hours on Friday.&nbsp;Exactly 5M shares traded, the largest trade since July 10 and ranked 59th largest since inception.&nbsp;This trade is consistent with an opening buy as price sits on the convergence of the 4H Keltner bottom and the daily Keltner bottom, an area where buying is more common than selling.&nbsp; Buying junk bonds would be a risk-on signal for stocks in the near term and supportive of bullish positioning in QQQ.
<img alt="untitled_design_44.png" src="https://www.benzinga.com/files/images/2023/October/02/untitled_design_44.png" style="height:313px; width:624px" />
<img alt="untitled_design_45.png" src="https://www.benzinga.com/files/images/2023/October/02/untitled_design_45.png" style="height:525px; width:624px" />
DISCLAIMER:&nbsp;If at any point, QQQ trades below $357.44, this thesis is wrong and something else is at play.&nbsp;Doing so would suggest these trades are not being defended, thereby nullifying any near-term bullish thesis.
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&nbsp;
&nbsp;

Identifying Reversals Using Leveraged ETFs

ProShares UltraPro QQQ (NASDAQ: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/tqqq#NASDAQ">TQQQ</a>)&nbsp;shares are trading lower by 0.7% to $34.24 Wednesday afternoon. The ETF is near session lows&nbsp;as <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/23/09/34944429/s-p-500-nasdaq-set-to-rebound-despite-soaring-bond-yields-analyst-warns-of-volatility-persisting">Treasury yields rise</a> during Wednesday&#39;s session. Rising oil prices are also weighing on the broader market.
For the unitiated, per ProShares, TQQQ&nbsp;seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, that correspond to three times (3x) the&nbsp;daily performance&nbsp;of the&nbsp;NASDAQ-100&nbsp;(NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/qqq#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>)&nbsp;ETF.
Why It Matters
Rising Treasury yields can lead to higher borrowing costs for corporations, which can negatively impact their profitability. This, in turn, can lead to lower stock prices for the companies included in the NASDAQ-100 Index and, consequently, for TQQQ, which seeks to track the index&#39;s performance.
TQQQ is heavily weighted toward the technology sector, and technology stocks are often sensitive to changes in interest rates. Higher interest rates can lead to higher discount rates applied to future cash flows, potentially reducing the present value of future earnings for tech companies.
This can lead to a decline in the stock prices of tech-related firms, which are major constituents of the NASDAQ-100 Index.
See Also:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/23/09/34944429/s-p-500-nasdaq-set-to-rebound-despite-soaring-bond-yields-analyst-warns-of-volatility-persisting">U.S. Stocks Struggle As Fed Sounds Hawkish</a>
According to data from&nbsp;<a href="https://benzinga.grsm.io/register174">Benzinga Pro</a>, TQQQ&nbsp;has a 52-week high of $47.14 and a 52-week low of $16.10.

ProShares UltraPro QQQ (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/tqqq#NASDAQ">TQQQ</a>)&nbsp;shares are trading flat at $39.29 Wednesday morning. The ETF is off session highs&nbsp;ahead of <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/federal-reserve/23/09/34761643/fed-meeting-preview-will-rates-hold-steady-despite-inflation-concerns">Wednesday&#39;s Fed decision</a>.
For the unitiated, per ProShares, TQQQ&nbsp;seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, that correspond to three times (3x) the&nbsp;daily performance&nbsp;of the&nbsp;NASDAQ-100&nbsp;(NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/qqq#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>)&nbsp;ETF.
Why It Matters
The NASDAQ-100 Index is composed of primarily technology and internet-related stocks. Changes in interest rates can have a significant impact on the valuation of these companies.
When the Fed is deciding whether to raise interest rates, it can lead to concerns that borrowing costs for these tech companies will increase, potentially affecting their profitability and growth prospects.
As a result, investors may adjust their positions in tech stocks, leading to increased volatility in TQQQ, which tracks the NASDAQ-100.
What To Expect Today
As the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) prepares to reveal its rate decision at 2 p.m. ET on Wednesday, market watchers and economists are speculating about the Federal&nbsp;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/federal-reserve" target="_blank">Reserve&rsquo;s next actions.</a>
The consensus view is that the Fed is likely to maintain its current interest rates in the range of 5.25%-5.5%...<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/federal-reserve/23/09/34761643/fed-meeting-preview-will-rates-hold-steady-despite-inflation-concerns">Read More</a>
According to data from&nbsp;<a href="https://benzinga.grsm.io/register174">Benzinga Pro</a>, TQQQ&nbsp;has a 52-week high of $47.14 and a 52-week low of $16.10.

ProShares UltraPro QQQ (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/tqqq#NASDAQ">TQQQ</a>) shares are trading higher by 1.9% to $41.30 Wednesday morning. The ETF is trading higher following&nbsp;<a href="http://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/23/09/34533564/inflation-spikes-beyond-forecasts-to-3-7-in-august-forces-markets-to-rethink-fed-" target="_blank">worse-than-expected U.S. inflation data</a>.
Rising inflation can lead to concerns about the Federal Reserve implementing tighter monetary policy, potentially including interest rate hikes. However, the impact of rising interest rates on TQQQ can be mixed.
Higher rates can increase borrowing costs and potentially reduce profit margins for tech companies, but they can also attract income-seeking investors away from bonds and into high-growth equities, like those in the tech sector.
For the unitiated, per ProShares, TQQQ&nbsp;seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, that correspond to three times (3x) the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/QQQ" target="_blank">daily performance</a>&nbsp;of the&nbsp;Nasdaq-100&nbsp;(NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/qqq#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>) ETF.
Inflation Surges Beyond Expectations&nbsp;In August
The annual CPI inflation rate soared from 3.2% in July to a notable 3.7% in August 2023, surpassing economist expectations of a 3.6% increase.
On a monthly basis, the CPI accelerated sharply, rising by 0.6% in August, a stark contrast to the 0.2% increase seen in July, but in line with expectations. This marked the sharpest monthly CPI increase since June 2022...<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/23/09/34533564/inflation-spikes-beyond-forecasts-to-3-7-in-august-forces-markets-to-rethink-fed-" target="_blank">Read More</a>
According to data from&nbsp;<a href="https://benzinga.grsm.io/register174">Benzinga Pro</a>, TQQQ&nbsp;has a 52-week high of $47.14 and a 52-week low of $16.10.

Over the last 20 years, September has been one of the worst months of the year in terms of&nbsp;performance. Over that time frame, the S&amp;P 500 has experienced upward movement in 12&nbsp;of those 20 years (60%), yet the average return for the month is -0.4%. Compare that to November which has averaged 2.1% returns over the last 20 years and moved higher 80% of the time
These stats are applicable if trading the SPDR S&amp;P 500 Trust (ARCA: SPY) or even the Invesco QQQ Trust Series (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/qqq#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>) as the Nasdaq 100 has performed similarly to the S&amp;P 500 in September.
<img alt="SPY seasonality based on month of year performance" src="https://www.benzinga.com/files/u55920/spy_seasonality.png" style="height:412px; width:624px" />
Note that the chart says 2003 to 2022&nbsp;to reflect the last 20&nbsp;completed&nbsp;months of September. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Over the past 10 years,&nbsp;the S&amp;P 500 has performed even worse in September. It has moved higher in five of the last 10 years (50%) and has lost an average of -1.4%.
As for other indices, the NYSE Composite has witnessed upward movement in September in 11&nbsp;of the last 20 years. That is 55% of the time, and the index has averaged a loss in September of -0.4%. Over the past decade, the NYSE Composite has experienced upward movement in four out of 10 years, with an average September return of -1.4%.
The NYSE Composite is a very broad index, including companies from all industries and of all sizes. It is representative of a &quot;typical stock&quot; and shows that a wide range of stocks don&#39;t perform well in September.
The&nbsp;Nasdaq 100 index, which is highly focused on large&nbsp;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/tech" target="_blank">technology</a>&nbsp;companies, has shown upward movement in 10 of the last 20 years (50%). On average, the index lost -0.3% in September. Over the past ten years, the average return has been -1.7%&nbsp;and the index has moved up in three out of those 10 years (30%).&nbsp;
<h3>Portfolio Strategies&nbsp;For September</h3>
September is a tougher month for stocks and thus there are different ways to manage it.
Long-term investors can stay the course and stick with a buy-and-hold strategy. A slightly weaker month (historically) isn&#39;t a reason to sell, especially since October and November tend to be some of the strongest months of the year. Over the long term, the S&amp;P 500 has returned about 10.5% per year, and the <a href="https://tradethatswing.com/historical-average-returns-for-nasdaq-100-index-qqq/">Nasdaq 100 has returned 14.3%</a>&nbsp;per year, even with all the yearly and monthly ups and downs.
Swing traders and shorter-term traders may be interested in <a href="https://tradethatswing.com/creating-a-buy-the-dip-stock-list-with-a-scanner/">buying the dip</a> in fundamentally strong stocks if the stock prices pull back in September. Recall that September is followed by historically strong months in October and November, so a pullback in September can provide an advantageous buying opportunity.
Coming into September, Energy, Consumer Cyclicals, and Industrials have been the strongest sectors over the last three months.
The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are currently in uptrends. While September tends to be a bit slower month for many stocks&nbsp;it is still worth looking for trade setups on the long side as the uptrend could continue, or buying fundamentally strong stocks on a September dip could be advantageous.&nbsp;&nbsp;
The ETFs themselves are also tradable. SPY and QQQ&nbsp;are some of the&nbsp;<a href="https://tradethatswing.com/best-etfs-for-day-trading-updated-regularly/" target="_blank">most actively traded ETFs</a>, and there is also the option to gain additional exposure through leveraged ETFs such as the Proshares Ultra Pro QQQ (Nasdaq: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/tqqq#Nasdaq">TQQQ</a>) or the ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ (Nasdaq: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/sqqq#Nasdaq">SQQQ</a>)
These ETFs move three times as much on a daily basis as QQQ.
Disclaimer: The author has long-term&nbsp;buy-and-hold positions in S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100-related ETFs.

September Is A Tough Month For Stocks Historically; How To Manage It

<h3>Summary</h3>
<ul>
<li>Institutions establish positions and then defend them, and the levels at which their largest trades arrive can be used to establish bias and define risk.&nbsp;</li>
<li>Positioning precedes trend reversals.&nbsp;Understanding when and where institutions trade with conviction provides valuable insight.</li>
<li>With 20 years of trade data across 5000+ tickers, Volumeleaders.com reveals institutional positioning and provides context and visualizations to better understand these trades.&nbsp;</li>
</ul>
<h3>Intro</h3>
As the rally off the October 2022 lows raged on through the summer of 2023, I began to see bearish positioning in QQQ (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/qqq#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>) and growth stocks that suggested the rally would soon be ending.&nbsp;In this article I will walk you through how I used <a href="https://www.volumeleaders.com/" style="color:#0563c1">Volumeleaders.com</a> to detect changes to institutional positioning which preceded a trend reversal.
<h3>Context / Metrics</h3>
Institutions trade with size and leave footprints wherever they go.&nbsp;Within these footprints lies valuable information.&nbsp;Volumeleaders.com captures these large trades and then calculates several custom metrics to help subscribers understand more about their size, rarity, and uniqueness.&nbsp; Among these metrics are trade rankings, which I&rsquo;ll be discussing in this article.&nbsp;
Any time a large trade is logged by volumeleaders.com, it&rsquo;s ranked by dollars against all other trades of the same ticker going back 20 years.&nbsp; Any trade ranked in the top-100 is annotated as such.&nbsp; When these ranked trades arrive, they tell us institutions are unusually active and positioning themselves with enough size and conviction that we can expect a meaningful move.&nbsp;What constitutions &lsquo;large&rsquo; is relative to each ticker as each behaves uniquely.&nbsp; But the one thing they all have in common is that large trades tend to arrive at or near relative highs and lows and precede large magnitude moves.&nbsp; If we can detect and infer the intent behind those large trades, we can position ourselves accordingly.&nbsp;
In each of the charts below, trade rank is displayed on the bubble representing each trade.&nbsp;
<h3>Leveraged ETFs</h3>
One of the most common and reliable patterns observed when watching institutions trade is that of leveraged ETFs. Typically, the pattern unfolds like this:
<ul>
<li>One or more disproportionately large leveraged ETF trades arrives.</li>
<li>Price makes one more nominal high or low in the direction of the current trend.&nbsp; Sometimes a reversal begins immediately.&nbsp;</li>
<li>Price reverses and breaks above/below the level at which the large leveraged trade arrived signifying that the current move has ended.&nbsp;</li>
</ul>
One reason for this behavior is that institutions trade leveraged ETFs only during the sharpest moves in either direction.&nbsp;This is due to the inherent decay and risk associated with holding leveraged ETFs for longer periods of time.&nbsp;Institutions trade in very large sizes and can&rsquo;t get their orders filled at the absolute highs and lows of a given move because there isn&rsquo;t sufficiently liquidity at the edges.&nbsp;But they can get filled just above the lows and below the highs.&nbsp;That&rsquo;s the zone in which they typically operate.&nbsp;
However, in this case we got a rare gift because both the bull ETF and the bear ETF arrived with unusual size at the same time suggesting that institutions were repositioning themselves from long to short.&nbsp;There was no new nominal high in TQQQ nor a nominal low in SQQQ.&nbsp; Price immediately reversed and a new downward trend began in QQQ.&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;
Below are charts from July 18, 2023, showing TQQQ&nbsp;(NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/tqqq#NASDAQ">TQQQ</a>)&nbsp;printing a disproportionately large trade near relative highs suggesting longs were closed and SQQQ&nbsp;(NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/sqqq#NASDAQ">SQQQ</a>) printing a disproportionately large trade near relative lows suggesting shorts were opened.&nbsp;
<img alt="untitled_design_29.png" src="https://www.benzinga.com/files/images/2023/August/23/untitled_design_29.png" style="height:309px; width:624px" />
<img alt="untitled_design_30.png" src="https://www.benzinga.com/files/images/2023/August/23/untitled_design_30.png" style="height:309px; width:624px" />
<h3>The Underlying</h3>
QQQ is the underlying ETF upon which TQQQ and SQQQ are based.&nbsp;Two weeks after the disproportionately large trades arrived in leveraged ETFs, price had made a lower high.&nbsp;That&rsquo;s when the 2nd largest QQQ trade since inception printed.&nbsp;The timing and location of this trade suggested institutions had initiated a large short position. Institutions buy low and sell high.&nbsp;Probability favors a large position arriving after a 10-month rally to be bearish in nature.&nbsp;Institutions don&#39;t typically deploy capital of this size at highs.&nbsp;&nbsp;
<img alt="untitled_design_31.png" src="https://www.benzinga.com/files/images/2023/August/23/untitled_design_31.png" style="height:309px; width:624px" />
As the days wore on, institutions added other large short positions as shown below.&nbsp;Each of these trades ranked in their respective top-100 and kept price moving lower.&nbsp; As price remained below each print, one could conclude these were bearish positions.&nbsp;Had they been bullish positions, price would not have traded lower and remained lower.&nbsp;Institutions always defend their positions.&nbsp;
<img alt="untitled_design_32.png" src="https://www.benzinga.com/files/images/2023/August/23/untitled_design_32.png" style="height:309px; width:624px" />
Bearishness wasn&rsquo;t limited to QQQ though.&nbsp;Analysis of the mega-cap growth stocks revealed similar bearish positioning.&nbsp;See the charts below with notes on each.
TSLA&nbsp;(NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/tsla#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>)
<img alt="untitled_design_33.png" src="https://www.benzinga.com/files/images/2023/August/23/untitled_design_33.png" style="height:309px; width:624px" />
MSFT&nbsp;(NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/msft#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>)
<img alt="untitled_design_34.png" src="https://www.benzinga.com/files/images/2023/August/23/untitled_design_34.png" style="height:309px; width:624px" />
AAPL&nbsp;(NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/aapl#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>)
<img alt="untitled_design_35.png" src="https://www.benzinga.com/files/images/2023/August/23/untitled_design_35.png" style="height:309px; width:624px" />
META&nbsp;(NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/meta#NASDAQ">META</a>)
<img alt="untitled_design_36.png" src="https://www.benzinga.com/files/images/2023/August/23/untitled_design_36.png" style="height:309px; width:624px" />
IWY (ARCA: IWY)&nbsp;&ndash; Growth ETF weighted heavily toward growth stocks (AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL, etc.)
<img alt="untitled_design_37.png" src="https://www.benzinga.com/files/images/2023/August/23/untitled_design_37.png" style="height:309px; width:624px" />
<h3>Conclusion</h3>
As August began, sentiment had been wildly bullish with many expecting indexes to see all-time highs soon.&nbsp;But beginning in June and July, institutions began quietly distributing their shares in growth stocks and positioning themselves for a bearish reversal.&nbsp; We&rsquo;re seeing those outcomes now.&nbsp;
I don&rsquo;t know how long this decline will last, or how far down institutions intend to take price.&nbsp;But I&rsquo;ll be waiting patiently for disproportionately large trades to appear at or near relative lows to suggest that institutions are repositioning themselves once again so that I can do the same.&nbsp;
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Anticipating Reversals By Understanding Institutional Positioning

ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ ETF (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/sqqq#NASDAQ">SQQQ</a>) shares are trading higher by 2.16% to $42.62 Friday morning, rebounding&nbsp;following recent weakness. The leveraged ETF has seen increased volatilty this week after&nbsp;Fitch&nbsp;downgraded the long-term credit rating of the US. This has weighed on market sentiment and&nbsp;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/23/08/33523662/fitch-slashes-us-credit-rating-5-top-economists-weigh-in-on-economic-fallout" target="_blank">pressured growth sectors</a>&nbsp;in recent sessions.
A credit rating downgrade of a major economy like the U.S. can lead to negative market sentiment. Investors may become more risk-averse and start selling off riskier assets, including leveraged ETFs like TQQQ.
The fear and uncertainty surrounding the downgrade can create a broad-based market sell-off, affecting all types of equities, including technology stocks represented by TQQQ.
Additionally, the technology <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/money/best-sectors-to-invest-in-right-now/">sector</a>, which TQQQ seeks to track, relies heavily on global trade and economic stability. A credit rating downgrade may lead to concerns about economic growth prospects and potential trade disruptions, affecting tech companies&#39; revenue and earnings expectations.
This, in turn, can cause investors to sell technology stocks and ETFs like TQQQ.
What Happened With Fitch?
In a move that sent shockwaves through global markets,&nbsp;Fitch Ratings&nbsp;downgraded the United States&rsquo; sovereign credit grade from AAA to AA+. This downgrade, echoing a move by S&amp;P Global more than a decade ago, comes as a result of several concerning factors affecting&nbsp;the nation&rsquo;s fiscal management...<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/23/08/33523662/fitch-slashes-us-credit-rating-5-top-economists-weigh-in-on-economic-fallout" target="_blank">Read More</a>
According to data from&nbsp;<a href="https://benzinga.grsm.io/register174">Benzinga Pro</a>, TQQQ&nbsp;has a 52-week high of $47.14 and a 52-week low of $16.10.

Why Nasdaq-100 Leveraged ETF TQQQ Is Moving

U.S. Treasury yields experienced a significant surge on Wednesday, influenced by a combination of factors including elevated issuance plans and Fitch&#8217;s downgrade of the <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/23/08/33526726/deja-vu-after-fitchs-cut-to-us-credit-rating-a-look-at-the-market-fallout-from-s-ps-2011-downgrade">United States&#8217; sovereign credit rating.</a>
The 10-year Treasury note briefly reached a yield of 4.1%, while the yield on the longer-dated 30-year note increased by 7 basis points to 4.16%, marking their highest levels since Nov. 10, 2022.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Chart: Treasury Yields Jump To Highest In 9 Months</h2>
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" width="1024" height="822" src="https://s3.amazonaws.com/editorial.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/02153627/US10Y_2023-08-02_21-35-53_7a398-1024x822.png" alt="" class="wp-image-80016" srcset="https://s3.amazonaws.com/editorial.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/02153627/US10Y_2023-08-02_21-35-53_7a398-1024x822.png 1024w,https://s3.amazonaws.com/editorial.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/02153627/US10Y_2023-08-02_21-35-53_7a398-300x241.png 300w,https://s3.amazonaws.com/editorial.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/02153627/US10Y_2023-08-02_21-35-53_7a398-768x616.png 768w,https://s3.amazonaws.com/editorial.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/02153627/US10Y_2023-08-02_21-35-53_7a398.png 1346w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Why Are U.S. Treasury Yields Rising?</h2>
<ul>
<li>Fitch Ratings downgraded the United States&#8217; long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating from AAA to AA+ on Tuesday. The downgrade was attributed to concerns over the expected fiscal deterioration over the next three years, the growing general government debt burden, and governance erosion compared to other peers. The agency also pointed out the impact of repeated debt-limit political standoffs and last-minute resolutions, which have diminished market confidence in the country&#8217;s fiscal management.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>The Treasury Department announced on Wednesday its plan to issue $103 billion in its quarterly refund next week, which is $7 billion higher than the previous quarter and above market expectations. The issuance includes offerings of $42 billion in three-year notes, $38 billion in 10-year notes, and $23 billion in 30-year bonds, according to the <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/b0e815ed-28d3-45cb-89e9-3460d9b91ce1#post-9b3bfc2d-45cb-4cf4-9e8f-a6a94e90dd3c">Financial </a>Times.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>"The timing of the downgrade is a bit weird, but the fiscal situation in the U.S. is concerning," said Brandywine Global Investment Management Portfolio Manager Tracy Chen, cited by <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-08-02/treasury-10-year-yield-flirts-with-highest-level-since-november?sref=TBDibEcD">Bloomberg</a>. According to the expert, this situation may lead to an increase in term premiums and a steepening of the yield curve.</li>
</ul>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Heightened Volatility Witnessed In 7 ETFs Wednesday</h2>
<ol>
<li>iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>): This ETF, investing in Treasury securities with remaining maturities of at least 20 years, declined 1% on Wednesday, reaching lows not seen since early November 2022. </li>
<li>ProShares UltraPro QQQ (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TQQQ#NASDAQ">TQQQ</a>): This leveraged ETF, tracking 3 times the daily performance of the Nasdaq 100 index, experienced a 6.8% drop for the session. </li>
<li>VanEck Semiconductors ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SMH#NASDAQ">SMH</a>): This ETF, investing in an ample selection of semiconductor stocks, fell 3.7%, recording its worst session of the year. </li>
<li>Invesco Solar ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TAN#NASDAQ">TAN</a>): This ETF, investing in companies involved in renewable energy, tumbled 5.7%, on track for its largest loss since mid-June 2022. </li>
<li>ProShares Trust Ultra VIX Short Term Futures ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UVXY#NYSE">UVXY</a>): This ETF, which tracks 1.5 times the daily performance of the S&amp;P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures Index, skyrocketed 17%. </li>
<li>Direxion Daily Gold Miners Index Bull 2X Shares (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NUGT#NYSE">NUGT</a>): This ETF, tracking 2 times the daily performance of the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index, fell 6.2% on Wednesday, after declining 7.3% on Tuesday. </li>
<li>Global X Robotics &amp; Artificial Intelligence ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BOTZ#NASDAQ">BOTZ</a>): This ETF, investing in AI-related stocks, dropped 3.6% on Wednesday, marking its largest daily decrease since mid-December 2022.</li>
</ol>
This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
Photo: Shutterstock.

Government

Specialty ETFs

Downgrades

New ETFs

BOTZ

NUGT

iShares Trust Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund

UVXY

US Credit Rating Cut Triggers Surge In Treasury Yields: 7 ETFs Experience Wild Swings

ProShares UltraPro QQQ (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/tqqq#NASDAQ">TQQQ</a>) shares are trading lower by roughly 6% to $42.30 Wednesday morning after Fitch downgraded the <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/23/08/33523662/fitch-slashes-us-credit-rating-5-top-economists-weigh-in-on-economic-fallout">long-term credit rating of the United States</a>.
What&#39;s Going On?
In a move that sent shockwaves through global markets,&nbsp;Fitch Ratings&nbsp;downgraded the United States&rsquo; sovereign credit grade from AAA to AA+. This downgrade, echoing a move by S&amp;P Global more than a decade ago, comes as a result of several concerning factors affecting&nbsp;the nation&rsquo;s fiscal management.
S&amp;P Global&nbsp;rates the U.S. sovereign credit rating at AA+ with a stable outlook, while&nbsp;Moody&rsquo;s&nbsp;rates it at Aaa with a stable outlook, both unchanged since 2013...<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/23/08/33523662/fitch-slashes-us-credit-rating-5-top-economists-weigh-in-on-economic-fallout">Read More</a>
According to data from&nbsp;<a href="https://benzinga.grsm.io/register174">Benzinga Pro</a>, TQQQ has a 52-week high of $47.14 and a 52-week low of $16.10.

Why Nasdaq-100 Leveraged ETF TQQQ Is Down 6%

Over the last 20 years, August has been a mediocre month in terms of stock market performance. Over that time frame, the S&amp;P 500 has experienced upward movement in 13 of those 20 years, accounting for a 65%&nbsp;success rate. On average, the S&amp;P 500&nbsp;only rallied 0.3% in August. Compare that to July which has averaged 2.3% rallies over the last 20 years.
This is applicable if trading the SPDR S&amp;P 500 Trust&nbsp;SPY (ARCA: SPY) or a similar ETF.
<img alt="season patterns for August in SPY" src="https://www.benzinga.com/files/u55920/spy-20-year-seasonality-as-of-end-of-2022_1.png" style="height:405px; width:624px" />
Note that the chart says 2003 to 2022&nbsp;to reflect the last 20&nbsp;completed&nbsp;months of August. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Over the past 10 years,&nbsp;the S&amp;P 500 has performed about the same. It has moved higher in six of the last 10 years (60% of the time) and has&nbsp;averaged a <a href="https://tradethatswing.com/seasonal-patterns-of-the-stock-market/">gain of 0.3%</a> once again.
Turning our attention to other indices for further confirmation, the NYSE Composite has witnessed upward movement in August in 11&nbsp;of the last 20 years. That is 55% of the time, and the index has averaged a loss in August of -0.4%. Over the past decade, the NYSE Composite has experienced upward movement in four out of 10 years, with an average August return of -0.7%.
The NYSE Composite is a very broad index, including companies from all industries and of all sizes. It is representative of a &quot;typical stock&quot; and shows that a wide range of stocks don&#39;t perform well in August.
The&nbsp;Nasdaq 100 index, which is highly focused on large <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/tech">technology</a> companies, has shown upward movement in 12&nbsp;of the last 20 years (60%). On average, the index gained 1.1% in August. Over the past ten years, the average return has been 1.5%&nbsp;and the index has moved up in six out of those 10 years (60%). This would be applicable if trading the Invesco QQQ Trust Series. Technology seems to fair decently in August, at least in terms of returns.
Coming into August, the Financial, Energy, and Communication Services sectors have been the strongest over the last month. Technology is the top performer over the last three months.&nbsp; The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are currently in uptrends. While August tends to be a bit slower month for many stocks, it is still worth looking for trades setups on the long side.&nbsp; The ETFs themselves are also tradable. SPY and QQQ (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/qqq#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>) are some of the <a href="https://tradethatswing.com/best-etfs-for-day-trading-updated-regularly/">most actively traded ETFs</a>, and there is also the option to gain additional exposure through leveraged ETFs such as the Proshares Ultra Pro QQQ (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/tqqq#NASDAQ">TQQQ</a>) or the ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/sqqq#NASDAQ">SQQQ</a>). These ETFs move three times as much on a daily basis as QQQ.

August Is A Flat Month For Most Stocks, Yet Technology Tends To Perform Well

ProShares UltraPro QQQ (NASDAQ: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/tqqq#NASDAQ">TQQQ</a>) shares are trading higher by 3.65% to $43.49 Thursday morning. Major indexes are higher after June CPI data showed <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/23/07/33197658/cpi-inflation-falls-to-lowest-level-since-march-2021-traders-rethink-feds-policy-">softer-than-expected inflation</a>.&nbsp;Additionally, strong financial results from Delta could be lifting market sentiment ahead of upcoming corporate earnings.
Markets are also reacting after the Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand recorded a 0.1% month-on-month rise in June, the&nbsp;Bureau of Labor Statistics said Thursday, rebounding from the revised 0.4% drop recorded in May but <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/23/07/33214549/producer-inflation-falls-to-35-month-low-jobless-claims-rise-less-than-expected-b">below the expected 0.2% rise</a>.
What Happened With U.S. CPI Inflation?
U.S.&nbsp;CPI inflation in June decelerated more than anticipated, reinforcing investor expectations of a single rate hike by the Federal Reserve followed by a halt to its tightening cycle. The Bureau of Labor Statistics&#39; data reveals a drop in the annual inflation rate from 4% in May to 3% in June, slightly below the average economist forecast of 3.1%.
This marks the twelfth consecutive month of declining inflation and the lowest reading since March 2021...<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/23/07/33197658/cpi-inflation-falls-to-lowest-level-since-march-2021-traders-rethink-feds-policy-" target="_blank">Read More</a>
What Else?
The Nasdaq-100 Index includes 100 of the largest non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq Stock Market. Many of these companies are well-known technology companies, which have exhibited strong growth in recent years.
If an investor believes in the long-term growth potential of the technology sector, they may see TQQQ as a way to participate in that growth.
According to data from&nbsp;<a href="https://benzinga.grsm.io/register174" target="_blank">Benzinga Pro</a>, TQQQ has a 52-week high of $43.39 and a 52-week low of $16.10.

Why TQQQ Stock Hit A New 52-Week High

ProShares UltraPro QQQ (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/tqqq#NASDAQ">TQQQ</a>) shares are trading higher by 3.82% to $42.02 Wednesday morning. Major indexes are higher after June CPI data showed <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/23/07/33197658/cpi-inflation-falls-to-lowest-level-since-march-2021-traders-rethink-feds-policy-">softer-than-expected inflation</a>.
For the unitiated, per ProShares, TQQQ&nbsp;seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, that correspond to three times (3x) the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/QQQ" target="_blank">daily performance</a>&nbsp;of the&nbsp;Nasdaq-100&nbsp;(NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/qqq#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
What Happened?
U.S.&nbsp;CPI inflation in June decelerated more than anticipated, reinforcing investor expectations of a single rate hike by the Federal Reserve followed by a halt to its tightening cycle. The Bureau of Labor Statistics&#39; data reveals a drop in the annual inflation rate from 4% in May to 3% in June, slightly below the average economist forecast of 3.1%.
This marks the twelfth consecutive month of declining inflation and the lowest reading since March 2021...<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/23/07/33197658/cpi-inflation-falls-to-lowest-level-since-march-2021-traders-rethink-feds-policy-" target="_blank">Read More</a>
What Else?
The Nasdaq-100 Index includes 100 of the largest non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq Stock Market. Many of these companies are well-known technology companies, which have exhibited strong growth in recent years.
If an investor believes in the long-term growth potential of the technology sector, they may see TQQQ as a way to participate in that growth.
According to data from&nbsp;<a href="https://benzinga.grsm.io/register174" target="_blank">Benzinga Pro</a>, TQQQ has a 52-week high of $42.44 and a 52-week low of $16.10.

Why Nasdaq-100 Leveraged ETF TQQQ Hit A New 52-Week High Today

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