에 대한 최신 뉴스 Septerna (NASDAQ:SEPN) 주식

SEPTERNA INC

Septerna

Septerna Inc is a clinical-stage biotechnology company pioneering a new era of G protein-coupled receptor (GPCR) oral small molecule drug discovery powered by a proprietary Native Complex Platform. Its industrial-scale platform aims to unlock the full potential of GPCR therapies. The group discovery and development of a pipeline of product candidates focused initially on treating patients in three therapeutic areas: endocrinology, immunology and inflammation, and metabolic disease. Its pipeline includes SEP-786 (PTH1R), SEP-631 (MRGPRX2), TSHR, GLP-1R, GIPR, and GCGR.

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SEPN

한 미디어 행사에서 트럼프 대통령은 기자들에게 59%에서 90% 사이의 가격 인하를 목표로 하고 있다고 말하며 제약사들에게 30일의 시간을 주었다. 월가는 이 소식을 받아들였고, 행정명령이 발표된 날 주요 바이오제약 주식의 주가는 하락했지만 대부분의 업계 주식은 반등했다.트럼프의 행정명령으로 인해 반등에 그치지 않고 급등할 것으로 예상되는 제약주 3가지를 소개한다.

트럼프의 약가 인하로 수혜 입을 수 있는 제약주 3가지

Septerna Inc

WIIM

Chagee Holdings shares are trading higher after Citigroup initiated coverage on the stock with a Buy rating and announced a price target of $43.7.

Macquarie analyst Steve Koenig maintains Snowflake (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SNOW#NYSE">SNOW</a>) with a Neutral and raises the price target from $190 to $210.

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Price Target

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SNOW

Macquarie Maintains Neutral on Snowflake, Raises Price Target to $210

APLD

Applied Digital shares are trading higher after B. Riley Securities raised its price target on the stock from $8 to $15.

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iShares PHLX SOX Semiconductor Sector Index Fund

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WOLF

Shares of several semiconductor companies are trading higher amid GlobalFoundries' announcement to commit $16 billion towards US chip expansion, which may be buoying investor sentiment towards the space.

JP Morgan analyst Mark R Murphy <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/DOCU/analyst-ratings" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">maintained a Neutral rating</a> on DocuSign, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DOCU#NASDAQ">DOCU</a>) with a price forecast of $81 on Tuesday.
Heading into DocuSign&#8217;s fiscal first-quarter earnings report, Murphy maintained a cautiously optimistic view, expecting the company to deliver relatively stable execution despite a dynamic-but-manageable macro environment.
The analyst noted that DocuSign&#8217;s recent pattern of fairly conservative guidance sets the company up well to deliver upside to current fiscal first-quarter estimates, while still likely allowing it to maintain some cushion for the back-half of the year to account for ongoing macroeconomic and geopolitical volatility.
Also Read: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-stock-ratings/analyst-color/25/06/45776761/jpmorgan-bullish-on-hewlett-packard-enterprises-future-cites-durable-non-ai-segments-capital-returns">JPMorgan Bullish On Hewlett Packard Enterprise&#8217;s Future, Cites &#8216;Durable&#8217; Non-AI Segments, Capital Returns</a>
He continues to sense a more balanced risk-reward profile for DocuSign in the medium term, with Intelligent Agreement Management (IAM) traction continuing to drive some stabilization and improvement in growth rates. This is partially balanced by an inferior GAAP profitability framework amid an ongoing IAM investment cycle and some exposure to macro-sensitive end-markets.
Murphy noted that DocuSign is well positioned to meet or exceed its fiscal first-quarter guidance bar, calling for +6% CC revenue and proforma billings growth. Both of these call for some deceleration versus the prior quarter, though they include some leap year impact.
While DocuSign may elect not to entirely pass through any fiscal first-quarter upside nor incremental currency favorability to the full-year guidance, similar to peers, the analyst noted this could create a favorable setup for the second half, particularly as IAM contributions continue to feather in. Partially balancing this, Murphy said that DocuSign&#8217;s fiscal 2026 outlook assumes consistent macro trends relative to when it was provided in mid-March. As a result, any degradation in underlying demand activity could exert some drag against ongoing improvements in the core business and go-to-market efforts.
While the analyst noted the potential for some continued variability in key metrics, such as customer adds and DNR, he continued to monitor for commentary related to envelopes sent and consumption, for which the company&#8217;s indications have been encouraging in recent quarters, to assess the underlying health of the core business, including in more macro-volatile verticals and geographies. In addition, coming off DocuSign Momentum, where the company highlighted new AI-driven products such as AI Contract Agents backed by its Iris AI engine, Murphy remains focused on DocuSign&#8217;s ability to drive further upsell and diversification from its core eSign base through newer features, likely to aid retention trends over time.
As a reminder, DocuSign also commented that it expects this IAM contribution to grow in fiscal 2026 and represent a &#8220;low-double-digit&#8221; percentage share of its total subscription recurring book of business (ARR) by the fiscal fourth quarter.
Overall, Murphy remains encouraged by the pacing of adoption for this broader IAM platform, which has aligned with his view of an accelerated adoption cycle relative to contract lifecycle management (CLM). 
He noted that much of the penetration today has been in the small and mid-market segments, with the enterprise segment and self-serve motion likely to ramp gradually as the year progresses.
As a reminder, DocuSign disclosed at its Momentum conference in April that over 10K customers had purchased IAM.
The analyst noted that IAM adoption by a &#8220;low-double-digit&#8221; share of the total Subs ARR base by year-end could drive a fairly meaningful uplift in the spending of existing eSign users, potentially resulting in a low-single-digit tailwind to growth trends in the medium-term.
Overall, Murphy noted this as a fairly tepid reading on balance when evaluated on a Y/Y growth basis, though he noted that these results for the first quarter land above five of the past ten quarters.
While an informative additional data point, he cautioned investors from over-indexing these web traffic figures, given the volatility in these metrics and an absence of supporting transaction-based trends within this data.
Murphy projected first-quarter revenue of $747 million and adjusted EPS of $0.82.
Price Action: DOCU stock is trading higher by 1.10% to $92.62 at last check Wednesday.
Read Next:
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-stock-ratings/analyst-color/25/06/45756083/which-internet-software-stocks-is-jp-morgan-bullish-on" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Which Internet Software Stocks Is JP Morgan Bullish On?</a></li>
</ul>
Image via Shutterstock

Reiteration

DOCU

DocuSign Macro Risks Could Cap Upside Despite AI, IAM Traction: Analyst

TD Securities analyst Aaron Bilkoski maintains Viper Energy (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VNOM#NASDAQ">VNOM</a>) with a Buy and raises the price target from $57 to $58.

VNOM

TD Securities Maintains Buy on Viper Energy, Raises Price Target to $58

TD Securities analyst Sean Steuart maintains Algonquin Power (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AQN#NYSE">AQN</a>) with a Hold and raises the price target from $6 to $6.5.

TD Securities Maintains Hold on Algonquin Power, Raises Price Target to $6.5

Guidance

VSCO

CORRECTION: Victoria's Secret & Co Sees Q1 2025 Net Sales Of $1.35B Vs $1.42B Estimate; Adj. EPS Of $0.09 Vs $0.04 Estimate

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) continues to hover near key resistance, with traders closely watching support levels to avoid a <a href="http://deeper summer correction">deeper summer correction</a>.
What Happened: In an update in his <a href="https://www.patreon.com/c/KevCapitalTA/posts">exclusive Patreon group</a>, prominent analyst Kevin highlighted that BTC has once again failed to break above the $106,800 resistance, a level that aligns with the macro 1.703 Fibonacci extension. 
After a 50% rally from cycle lows without a significant pullback, rejection at this level was anticipated.
Kevin pointed to recent golden crosses on both the daily and weekly timeframes (50/200 SMA and 21 EMA/20 SMA), typically followed by 7–10% corrections, and occasionally deeper ones. 
A fresh weekly hash ribbon buy signal—a historically reliable bullish indicator, has also flashed but often precedes short-term dips before upside continuation.
Despite bullish technical setups, Kevin noted mixed macro conditions and seasonal weakness in crypto markets. 
If Bitcoin fails to hold support between $100,000–$103,000, it could slide into a prolonged correction. 
If support holds, BTC could finally break through $106,800 and resume its upward trend.
Also Read: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/crypto/cryptocurrency/25/06/45772932/bitcoins-post-golden-cross-correction-playing-out-benjamin-cowen-flags-signs-of-q3-weakness">Bitcoin&#8217;s Post-Golden Cross Correction Playing Out — Benjamin Cowen Flags Signs Of Q3 Weakness</a>
Why It Matters: Daan Crypto Trades <a href="https://x.com/DaanCrypto/status/1930293971370291252">echoed</a> the uncertain near-term outlook, emphasizing that Bitcoin&#8217;s price has reliably followed a 4-year halving cycle, whether measured top-to-top or bottom-to-bottom.
He pushed back against speculation that this cycle will behave differently due to ETFs or broader market maturity, arguing that such claims were made in prior cycles too. 
"Skepticism about the cycle actually strengthens it," he said, reaffirming his plan to scale out of positions gradually through late 2025, just as he did in the 2021 cycle peak.
What's Next: Traders now look to the $100,000–$103,000 zone as a critical line in the sand. 
A breakdown could open the door to a summer slump, while a rebound might trigger a breakout above resistance, potentially setting the stage for a fresh leg up.
Read Next:
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/crypto/cryptocurrency/25/06/45767169/bitcoin-ethereum-xrp-dogecoin-tick-up-as-battle-for-105000-intensifies">Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, Dogecoin Tick Up As &#8216;Battle For $105,000&#8217; Intensifies</a></li>
</ul>

Coverage of Bitcoin, Etherum, Ripple and all the latest digital currencies.

Cryptocurrency

$BTC

Bitcoin Stuck At $105,000: What Does Technical Analysis Say?

SSRM

SSR Mining shares are trading lower after the company announced its operations at Seabee have been temporarily suspended.

AnaptysBio, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ANAB#NASDAQ">ANAB</a>) on Tuesday released updated data from the Phase 2b trial of rosnilimab, a PD-1 depleter and agonist, for <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/health-care" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">rheumatoid arthritis</a>.
In the 424-patient 2b trial, rosnilimab achieved JAK-like efficacy on multiple clinically meaningful measures, including low disease activity (LDA) and remission on the Clinical Disease Activity Index (CDAI), as well as ACR70 response, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/pressreleases/25/06/g45757627/anaptys-announces-positive-rosnilimab-data-updated-through-six-months-in-robust-phase-2b-trial-in-" rel="noreferrer noopener">over six months</a>.
Furthermore, responses were then durable for at least two months off the drug.
Also Read: <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/biotech/24/12/42445688/anaptysbio-discontinues-investment-in-eczema-candidate-after-disappointing-data" rel="noreferrer noopener">AnaptysBio Discontinues Investment In Eczema Candidate After Disappointing Data</a>
Rosnilimab was safe and well tolerated, particularly compared to standard-of-care biologics or JAKs.
All three doses (100mg Q4W, 400mg Q4W, 600mg Q2W) achieved statistically significant reductions in DAS-28 CRP and ACR20 at Week 12 versus placebo.
CDAI LDA (≤10) was achieved by 45% of 318 rosnilimab patients by Week 12, increasing to 69% (220 responders) across all doses by Week 14.
The company aims to complete its Phase 2 study for rosnilimab in ulcerative colitis/UC, with initial data expected in the fourth quarter of 2025.
As of the March 11, 2025&nbsp;data cutoff date, 83% were still in LDA at Week 34 across all doses. Of the remaining 17% of patients who did not sustain CDAI LDA at Week 34, most remained near the cutoff of CDAI=10, with a median CDAI of 13.
Rosnilimab demonstrated clinically meaningful improvements that deepened through Week 28 across multiple validated patient-reported outcomes, including the pain visual analog scale (VAS) and the health assessment questionnaire, or HAQ-Disability Index (DI), a self-reporting tool to measure function and disability.
HC Wainwright analyst Emily Bodnar wrote on Wednesday, &#8220;Given the data showcase a positive holistic story for rosnilimab in RA, we are increasingly positive on upcoming UC data.&#8221;
Bodnar upgraded AnaptysBio from Neutral to Buy, raising the price target<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/ANAB/analyst-ratings" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener"> from $22 to $38</a>.
HC Wainwright Highlights Competitor Datasets
Data using non-responder imputation (NRI) from Week 24 of the SELECT-CHOICE trial, which compared AbbVie Inc&#8217;s (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ABBV#NYSE">ABBV</a>) Rinvoq vs Bristol Myers Squibb&nbsp;&amp; Co&#8217;s (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BMY#NYSE">BMY</a>) Orencia in rheumatoid arthritis (RA), showed similar results for both drugs. These findings align with the results seen for the company&#8217;s rosnilimab at Week 28, even though about 29% of patients had previously been treated with JAK inhibitors.
In contrast, Eli Lilly And Co&#8216;s (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/LLY#NYSE">LLY</a>) now-discontinued PD-1 agonist peresolimab showed a drop in CDAI LDA rates—from 55% at Week 14 to 37% at Week 24. This is notably lower than the 53–63% range reported for rosnilimab at Week 28.
Johnson &amp; Johnson (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/JNJ#NYSE">JNJ</a>) is also set to present early data for its PD-1 agonist at the upcoming EULAR conference, though its study is smaller than AnaptysBio&#8217;s.
Price Action: ANAB stock is down 12.1% at $20.66 at the last check on Wednesday.
Read Next:
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/tech/25/06/45769045/tariffs-ai-and-trade-war-apples-smartphone-growth-to-take-a-hit-experts-say" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Tariffs, AI And Trade War: Apple&#8217;s Smartphone Growth To Take A Hit, Experts Say</a></li>
</ul>
Photo: Shutterstock

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ANAB

AnaptysBio's Arthritis Drug Matches Top Therapies In Phase 2 Trial, Analyst Sees Turning Point

Peloton Interactive, Inc. shares are trading higher Wednesday. On Tuesday, a report suggested the company is launching a resale market for used bikes and treadmills.
The Details: According to <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/03/peloton-launching-resale-market-for-used-bikes-treadmills.html">CNBC</a>, Peloton has rolled out Repowered, a platform that lets users list their used equipment and apparel, with pricing guidance provided by a generative artificial intelligence tool.
Sellers will receive 70% of the sale price, with the remainder shared between Peloton and its resale partner Archive. They will also get a discount toward new equipment. Buyers will benefit from a lower activation fee, which the company said is dropping from $95 to $45 for used products. 
Peloton said buyers will be able to view the equipment's history on the listing and can choose to have it delivered for an additional fee.
The company also said that as of last summer, connected fitness subscriptions from customers who purchased hardware through secondary channels were up 16% year-over-year.
Repowered launched as a beta version in New York City, Boston and Washington D.C., with plans to expand across the United States in the coming months.
See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-stock-ratings/analyst-color/25/06/45776761/jpmorgan-bullish-on-hewlett-packard-enterprises-future-cites-durable-non-ai-segments-capital-returns">JPMorgan Bullish On Hewlett Packard Enterprise&#8217;s Future, Cites &#8216;Durable&#8217; Non-AI Segments, Capital Returns</a>
PTON Price Action: At the time of writing, Peloton shares are trading 11.2% higher at $7.40, according to data from Benzinga Pro.
Image: via Shutterstock

PTON

Peloton Stock Is Climbing Higher Wednesday: What's Going On?

<a href="https://www.wsj.com/business/media/meta-seeks-hollywood-deals-for-new-virtual-reality-headset-ef3db942">https://www.wsj.com/business/media/meta-seeks-hollywood-deals-for-new-virtual-reality-headset-ef3db942</a>

'Meta Seeks Hollywood Deals for New Virtual-Reality Headset'- WSJ

Wells Fargo &amp; Company (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/WFC#NYSE">WFC</a>) shares are trading higher Wednesday following its announcement that it&#8217;s no longer subject to asset growth restrictions that were <a href="https://www.benzinga.com//node/45758069">imposed in 2018</a>.
What To Know: On Tuesday, Wells Fargo said the Federal Reserve lifted the asset cap that had been in place since 2018, a penalty tied to the bank's fake-account scandal, according to the <a href="https://apnews.com/article/wells-fargo-federal-reserve-sales-practices-assets-e1d79548c0da446320c441e88de3eea4">Associated Press</a>.
The Federal Reserve&#8217;s decision to lift the asset cap marks a pivotal milestone in our journey to transform Wells Fargo. We are a different and far stronger company today because of the work we&#8217;ve done,&#8221; said Wells Fargo CEO Charlie Scharf.&nbsp;
The fake-accounts scandal, which erupted in 2018, stemmed from a high-pressure sales culture that led employees to open millions of unauthorized accounts in an effort to meet aggressive performance goals.
Since taking the helm in 2019, Scharf has worked to convince regulators that Wells Fargo has overhauled its practices and addressed longstanding compliance failures.
&#8220;In addition, we have changed and simplified our business mix, and we have transformed the management team and how we run the company. We have been methodically investing in the company&#8217;s future while improving our financial results and profile,&#8221; Scharf added.
&#8220;We are excited to continue to move forward with plans to further increase returns and growth in a deliberate manner supported by the processes and cultural changes we have made.&#8221;
See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/crypto/cryptocurrency/25/06/45775027/pump-funs-1b-token-plan-risks-undermining-solana-defi-fueling-meme-coin-scams-experts-warn">Pump.fun&#8217;s $1B Token Plan Risks Undermining Solana DeFi, Fueling Meme Coin Scams, Experts Warn</a>
WFC Price Action: At the time of publication, Wells Fargo stock is trading 0.41% higher at $75.96, according to data from <a href="https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&amp;source=web&amp;rct=j&amp;opi=89978449&amp;url=https://www.benzinga.com/pro/&amp;ved=2ahUKEwjk9-eNmtiNAxWxg4kEHSKNIm4QFnoECAoQAQ&amp;usg=AOvVaw0xIsPvjIcIIsWev01-6zR2">Benzinga Pro</a>.
Image: via Shutterstock

Wells Fargo Stock Is Trading Higher Wednesday: What's Going On?

<a href="https://x.com/pulte/status/1930323713154789718">https://x.com/pulte/status/1930323713154789718</a>

U.S. Director Of Federal Housing FHFA Pulte Posts On X "I am meeting with the Equifax CEO today, it should be an interesting meeting. I also had a great meeting with the National Association of Realtors and much more"

Roth Capital analyst George Kelly reiterates Mama's Creations (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MAMA#NASDAQ">MAMA</a>) with a Buy and raises the price target from $9 to $10.

MAMA

Roth Capital Reiterates Buy on Mama's Creations, Raises Price Target to $10

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/2025-06-04_08h29_43.png" alt="" /></figure>
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Stock Market Magnet</h4>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/stock-market-chart-analysis-stock-market-magnet-trump-budget-spy-mc-06042025">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&amp;P 500 (SPX).
Note the following:
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>The chart shows that the pull of zone 1 as the stock market's magnet is very strong.</li>
<li>The chart shows that RSI has now become barely overbought.&nbsp; This indicates that there is room for the stock market to move to zone 1, but the stock market can also pull back due to overbought conditions.</li>
<li>Elon Musk is calling President Trump's budget a "disgusting abomination."&nbsp; Musk says, "Congress is making America bankrupt." Musk claims that President Trump's "One Big Beautiful Bill" will massively increase the budget deficit to $2.5T. 
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>The momo crowd buys Tesla Inc (TSLA) stock on every comment from Musk.  How is the momo crowd reacting to Musk's comment about President Trump's budget?  The momo crowd is aggressively buying stocks as the pull of the zone 1 magnet in the stock market is much stronger than Musk's influence.</li>
<li>Prudent investors should pay attention to Musk's comment about President Trump's budget.&nbsp; After all, Musk spent $250M of his own money to get Trump elected and countless hours in Washington on DOGE to help President Trump.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>President Trump said, "I like President XI of China, always have, and always will, but he is VERY TOUGH, AND EXTREMELY HARD TO MAKE A DEAL WITH!!!" 
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>How does the momo crowd react to President Trump's statement?&nbsp; The momo crowd is buying stocks because President Trump likes President Xi, and they are ignoring President Trump saying that President Xi is extremely hard to make a deal with.</li>
<li>Prudent investors should not ignore half of President Trump's statement.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Automatic Data Processing Inc (ADP) is the largest private payroll processor in the country.   ADP data poured cold water on all the bullishness.  ADP showed employment much weaker than expected.  ADP Employment Change came at 37K vs. 115K consensus. 
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Weak ADP data brought quick selling to the stock market, but as of this writing, the momo crowd is aggressively buying the shallow dip caused by the ADP data.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>ADP data comes after JOLTS data.&nbsp; JOLTS came at 7.391M vs. 7.2M prior.&nbsp; JOLTS data contributed to yesterday's stock market rally.</li>
<li>Initial jobless claims will be released tomorrow at 8:30am ET and the official jobs report will be released Friday at 8:30am ET.</li>
<li>ISM Services was released today at 10am ET.  ISM Services data can cause major moves in the markets.  ISM Services data is a leading indicator and carries heavy weight in the adaptive <a href="https://thearorareport.com/ALLOCATION%2BMODELS.htm">ZYX Asset Allocation Model</a> with a long proven track record with inputs in <a href="https://thearorareport.com/unique-zyx-asset-allocation-4/">10 categories</a>.</li>
<li>The Fed's Beige Book will be released today at 2pm ET and may be market moving.</li>
<li>There has been significant Fed speak: 
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Dallas Fed President Logan said the Fed should focus on forward looking policy that is prepared for a high inflation era.</li>
<li>Fed Governor Cook warned of increasing uncertainty with trade policy potentially pressuring inflation and jobs.</li>
<li>Atlanta Fed President Bostic indicated room for one rate cut in 2025.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>For the AI trade,  earnings from Broadcom Inc (AVGO) are important.  Earnings will be released after market close.</li>
<li>Also important are earnings from Lululemon Athletica Inc (LULU) as it will give a glimpse into the state of the higher end consumer as well as lower end consumers who purchase Lululemon as a status symbol.</li>
</ul>
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h4>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Meta Platforms Inc (META) and NVIDIA Corp (NVDA).
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN), Alphabet Inc Class C (GOOG), Microsoft Corp (MSFT), and TSLA.
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Apple Inc (AAPL).
In the early trade, money flows are like a yoyo in S&amp;P 500 ETF (SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (QQQ).
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h4>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.  Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.  The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (GLD).  The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (SLV).  The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (USO).
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Oil</h4>
API crude inventories came at a draw of 3.3M barrels vs. a consensus of a draw of 0.9M barrels.&nbsp; This data is bearish for oil, but new politics will trump any data.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h4>
Bitcoin is range bound.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Arora Protection Band And What To Do Now</h4>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.  Our proprietary Protection Band puts all of the data, all of the indicators, all of the news, all of the crosscurrents, all of the models, and all of the analysis in an analytical framework that is easily actionable by investors.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h4>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
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5월 12일, 도널드 트럼프 대통령은 제약사들이 미국 내 처방약 가격을 해외 수준으로 낮추도록 하는 행정명령(EO)에 서명함으로써 선거 공약을 이행했다.
한 미디어 행사에서 트럼프 대통령은 기자들에게 59%에서 90% 사이의 가격 인하를 목표로 하고 있다고 말하며 제약사들에게 30일의 시간을 주었다. 월가는 이 소식을 받아들였고, 행정명령이 발표된 날 주요 바이오제약 주식의 주가는 하락했지만 대부분의 업계 주식은 반등했다.
트럼프의 행정명령으로 인해 반등에 그치지 않고 급등할 것으로 예상되는 제약주 3가지를 소개한다.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">트럼프 팀의 탄탄한 논리?</h3>
미국의 약값이 과도하다는 사실은 누구도 부인하지 않는다. 2024년 RAND 코퍼레이션의 연구에 따르면 미국의 약값은 다른 33개 선진국의 약값보다 약 3배 높다고 한다.
미국 대통령은 적어도 부분적으로는 민간 업계에 가격 인하를 명령할 수 있는 전권을 가지고 있다.
플로리다주 팜비치 가든에 위치한 베스트 프랙티스 인스티튜트(Best Practice Institute)의 설립자 겸 CEO인 루 카터(Lou Carter)는 "특히 메디케어와 같은 정부 프로그램이 대규모 구매자인 의료 분야에서는 더욱 그렇다&#8221;고 한다. "정책은 단순히 법에 관한 것이 아니라 영향력에 관한 것이다. 이번 행정명령은 공공 프로그램의 무게를 이용해 가격 책정의 책임을 강제하는 것으로, 납세자 자금을 관리할 때 현명한 비즈니스다.&#8221;
의회와 법원은 행정명령을 저지하기 위해 노력할 수 있지만 성공 가능성은 희박하다.
카터는 "정치적으로 약가 인하에 반대하기는 어렵다&#8221;고 했다. "제약사가 열심히 로비를 하더라도 대부분의 의원들은 노인들이 인슐린을 구입할 수 있도록 도와주는 것에 반대하는 것이 정치적 자살 행위라는 것을 알고 있다. 만약 이 문제가 법정으로 간다면, 이러한 조치가 대중적인지 옳은지 여부가 아니라 절차상의 문제에 달려 있을 것이다.&#8221;
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">대형 제약사에 가장 큰 타격</h3>
행정명령의 규모와 범위를 고려할 때, 규모가 큰 제약사일수록 재정적 어려움에 처할 수 있다는 것은 놀라운 일이 아니다.
뉴욕시에 본사를 둔 의료업무 인증위원회(Accreditation Council for Medical Affairs)의 설립자 겸 CEO인 윌 솔리먼 박사는 "암젠(NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMGN#NASDAQ">AMGN</a>)이나 리제네론(NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/REGN#NASDAQ">REGN</a>)처럼 메디케어에 많이 노출된 대형 바이오테크 및 전문 제약회사가 가장 큰 타격을 받을 수 있다&#8221;고 한다.&#8221;그들은 수익성이 높은 (메디케어) 파트 B 의약품에 의존하고 있다."
파이프라인이 좁은 제약사들도 행정명령으로 인해 타격을 입을 수 있다.
메릴랜드주 베데스다에 위치한 말로이(Malloy) 법률 사무소의 설립자이자 대표 파트너인 션 말로이(Seann Malloy)는 "브리스톨 마이어스 스퀴브(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BMY#NYSE">BMY</a>) 같은 전문 항암제 제조업체는 광범위한 포트폴리오를 보유한 다각화된 제약 회사보다 더 큰 영향을 받을 수 있다&#8221;고 했다. "초기 상용 제품을 보유한 중소형 생명공학 기업은 제한된 메디케어 활용과 기존 가격 보호 조항으로 인해 즉각적인 영향권에서 벗어나는 경우가 많다.&#8221;
"행정 명령의 핵심 요소는 메디케어의 처방약 지급이 다른 선진국의 최저 가격과 일치하도록 의무화하는 것으로, 기본적으로 국제 참조 가격을 사용한다. 일부 시범 프로젝트는 30일 이내에 시작되지만 필요한 규정 개발로 인해 모든 조항을 완전히 시행하는 데는 6~12개월이 더 걸릴 것이다.&#8221;
한편, 해당 행정명령이 생명공학 의약품 주식에 얼마나 큰 영향을 미칠지 결정하는 데는 시기가 중요한 역할을 할 수 있다.
처음에는 이러한 행정명령이 메디케어 파트 B에 따른 의사가 투여하는 의약품에 초점을 맞추지만, 나중에 파트 D에 따른 소매 처방도 포함될 수 있다. 말로이는 이렇게 말했다. "이러한 단계적 시행은 즉각적인 시장 효과와 장기적인 시장 효과가 다를 것이라는 것을 의미하며, 투자자들이 종종 놓치는 점이다. 초기에는 가격이 빠르게 변화할 것으로 보이지만, 광범위한 규제 절차로 인해 상당한 매출 영향이 지연될 가능성이 높다."
또한 해외 의약품 공급업체는 트럼프 약가 지침으로 인해 거센 역풍을 맞을 수도 있다.
미국 히스패닉 비즈니스 위원회(United States Hispanic Business Council)의 설립자 겸 CEO인 하비에르 팔로마레즈(Javier Palomarez)는 "해외 제조업체가 가장 취약하다&#8221;며 &#8220;이들 중 상당수는 투자 수익률 때문에 미국으로 의약품을 출하하는데, 이러한 수익률이 약화되면 전 세계로 의약품을 출하할 인센티브와 능력이 약화되어 일부 기업의 경우 미국 시장 접근성이 완전히 상실될 수 있다&#8221;고 했다.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">향후 30일간 주의 깊게 지켜봐야 할 제약주 3가지</h3>
트럼프의 행정명령을 활용하고자 하는 바이오테크 투자자들은 트럼프가 5월 12일 기자회견에서 말한 것처럼 "중개인을 없애겠다"는 트럼프의 의도를 이해해야 한다. 이는 실제 의약품 제조업체에게는 좋은 소식이지만 소위 처방약급여관리업체(PBM)에게는 좋지 않은 소식으로 해석될 수 있다.
PBM은 건강 보험 회사, 대형 고용주, 제약 제조업체, 보험사, 환자 사이의 중개자 역할을 한다. 처방약을 생산하지는 않지만 청구 처리 및 처방약 가격 협상과 같은 의약품 비즈니스의 일상적인 측면을 처리한다.
대형 제약사들은 역사적으로 높은 약값에 대해 PBM을 비난해 왔으며, 소비자 직접 판매 의약품 시장을 확대하는 모든 이니셔티브를 지지할 가능성이 높다. 이 시나리오에서는 의약품 소비자가 제약회사와 직접 거래하여 필요한 의약품을 더 저렴한 가격에 구매할 수 있기 때문에 보험사가 필요하지 않다.
이 시장의 투자자들은 대형 제약사를 원할 것이고, 대형 PBM은 원하지 않을 것이다. 따라서 다음 제약주 3가지는 긍정적인 측면이 두드러진다.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">일라이 릴리</h4>
의약품 제조 대기업 일라이 릴리(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/LLY#NYSE">LLY</a>) 주가는 주당 730달러로 높지만, 소비자 직접 처방약 시장에서 번창할 가능성이 높은 주식이다. 주가는 연초 대비 5.0% 하락했지만, 일라이 릴리를 추적하는 26명의 월스트리트 애널리스트가 최고 등급을 부여했다. 회사의 최근 주당순이익은 차트에서 벗어났으며, 2024년 주당 순이익은 106%, 2025년에는 68%까지 상승할 것으로 예상된다. 주가는 최근 고점 대비 20% 할인된 상태이며, 이는 제약 업계의 견실한 기업에게는 좋은 할인이 될 수 있다.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">노보 노디스크</h4>
노보 노디스크(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVO#NYSE">NVO</a>)는 수익성이 좋은 체중 감량 치료제 시장에서 경쟁사들이 계속해서 시장 점유율을 잠식하면서 트럼프의 행정명령 이전부터 시장의 어려움을 겪어 왔다. 특히 최근 일라이 릴리의 젭바운드(Zepbound: 마운자로와 동일)를 복용한 환자가 노보 노디스크의 위고비(Wegovy)보다 더 빨리 체중이 감소한다는 결론을 내린 연구 결과가 큰 타격을 입혔다. 이것이 바로 지난 한 해 동안 노보 노디스크의 주가가 50% 하락한 가장 큰 이유 중 하나다.
그러나 현재 주가는 지난 한 달 동안 13.9% 상승하며 반등 모드에 있다. 체중 감량 약물을 개발하기 위한 노보 노디스크와 셉테르나(NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SEPN#NASDAQ">SEPN</a>) 간 22억 달러 규모의 거래는 애널리스트들이 큰 진전을 이루었다고 평가하며, 골드만삭스와 JP 모건과 같은 대형 기업들은 노보 노디스크에 대한 매수 의견을 고수하고 있다. 그리고 더 많은 업계 애널리스트들이 현재 수준에서 50%의 주가 상승 여력을 가진다는 컨센서스에 도달했다.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">애브비</h4>
애브비(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ABBV#NYSE">ABBV</a>)는 보톡스(Botox), 휴미라(Humira), 린보크(Rinvoq), 스카이리치(Skyrizi) 등 다양한 인기 처방약을 생산하는 제약사로 워싱턴 DC의 정치적 간섭에 영향을 받지 않는 진정한 현금 흐름 창출 기업이다. 이번 주 행정명령 뉴스에서 주가는 1%밖에 하락하지 않았고, 지난 한 달 동안 5% 상승했다. 또한 소득을 중시하는 투자자를 위한 3.6%의 배당금, 탄탄한 의약품 파이프라인, 폐암 치료제 엠렐리스(Emrelis)에 대한 새로운 규제 &#8216;청신호&#8216;가 제공되어 2025년에도 애브비 주가가 계속 상승할 것이라는 근거를 뒷받침하고 있다.
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Septerna

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