Under Armour (NYSE:UAA) 주식

UNDER ARMOUR INC-CLASS A

Under Armour

Under Armour develops, markets, and distributes athletic apparel, footwear, and accessories in North America, Asia-Pacific, Europe, and elsewhere. Consumers of its performance-based clothing and shoes include professional and amateur athletes, sponsored college and professional teams, and people with active lifestyles. The company sells merchandise through direct-to-consumer, including e-commerce and more than 400 combined factory house and brand house stores, and wholesale channels. The Baltimore-based company was founded in 1996 and is led by controlling shareholder Kevin Plank.

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목요일(3일) 경제학자 피터 쉬프는 나이키(NYSE:NKE)가 새로 부과된 관세에도 불구하고 생산을 미국으로 이전하지 않을 것이라고 경고하면서 신발 대기업 나이키의 가격 상승과 미국 국내 판매 감소를 예측했다. 

피터 쉬프 &#34;나이키는 미국에 공장 짓지 않을 것...중국 등에 판매하면 그만&#34;

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도널드 트럼프가 제안한 수입 관세가 운동화 제조업체와 소매업체에 큰 영향을 미칠 것이라는 우려가 운동화 업계를 휩쓸고 있다. 이러한 잠재적인 정책은 특히 아시아 제조 허브에 크게 의존하는 기업들에게 영향을 미칠 수 있다.무슨 일이 일어났을까? 트럼프 대통령이 모든 수입품에 20% 관세를 부과하고 특히 중국산 제품에 60%의 고율 관세를 부과하겠다고 밝힌 후 업계 리더들은 충격에 대비하고 있다. 이미 상당한 수입 관세를 부담하고 있는 신발 부문은 생산 비용이 더욱 급증할 수 있다.

트럼프 2기 행정부 들어서면 나이키 운동화 비싸질까?

Under Armour Inc

The S&amp;P 500 index, also known as the SPX, is widely regarded as the barometer of the overall U.S. stock market. The index measures the performance of 500 large-cap publicly traded companies in the U.S., including the "<a href="https://in.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/25/04/44649868/magnificent-7s-3-trillion-club-is-vacant-as-apple-stock-stumbles">Magnificent 7&#8243;</a> cohort.
Few people might be aware, though, that there even exists a cryptocurrency called SPX, which, interestingly, has netted mammoth returns to its holders over the last year.
What happened: SPX6900 (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/">SPX</a>), a parody coin with a market capitalization of over $400 million, has surged an eye-popping 17474.22% in the last year.&nbsp;
In fact, the Solana (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/sol/usd">SOL</a>)-based token finished 2024 as the <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/24/12/42717267/2024s-cryptocurrency-champions-these-top-performers-surpass-bitcoin-in-a-year-of-unprecedented-gains">year's second-biggest gainer</a>, dwarfing the returns from market heavyweights like Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) and Dogecoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/doge/usd">DOGE</a>).
The token&#8217;s fan page jokingly <a href="https://www.spx6900.com/">suggests </a>that it aims to challenge the dominance of the S&amp;P 500 index by establishing a new stock market index, SPX6900.
"This movement is more than numbers; it's a redefinition of dominance, relevance, and inclusion in global markets. As the financial world takes notice, the idea of the SPX6900 sends a clear message: it&#8217;s time to think bigger," the token's synopsis read.
See Also:<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/04/44621245/gold-backed-cryptos-match-yellow-metals-highs-following-trumps-liberation-day-shock"> Bitcoin Reeling From Trump&#8217;s &#8216;Liberation Day&#8217; Shock But These Gold-Backed Coins Are Killing It This Year</a>
The website&#8217;s disclaimer, however, clarified that the meme currency was made just for entertainment and had nothing to do with stocks or securities.
And, despite its stratospheric rise last year, SPX, like the rest of the cryptocurrency industry, has faltered in 2025. Year-to-date, the coin has plunged nearly 50% and is currently trading down 75% from its all-time highs.
Markets have been <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/movers/25/04/44659799/bitcoin-plunges-below-80000-ethereum-dogecoin-crash-as-cryptocurrencies-mirror-stocks-amid-trump-tariff-mayhem-analyst-flags-critical-support-level-for-btc">pounded </a>by President Donald Trump's sweeping tariff policies in 2025. The S&amp;P 500 has lost over 13% year-to-date, with Friday marking its worst decline since March 2020. It closed 
Price Action:  At the time of writing, SPX memecoin was exchanging hands at $0.4387, down 12.39% in the last 24 hours, according to <a href="https://pro.benzinga.com/dashboard?_gl=1&#x2A;380nj0&#x2A;_ga&#x2A;MTEyOTAyOTcxMy4xNzEzMzY0NTYy&#x2A;_ga_V7ZK73W7N0&#x2A;MTcxNDk4MzIzMi42LjEuMTcxNDk4OTE0Ni4wLjAuMA..">data from Benzinga Pro</a>. The S&amp;P 500 closed Friday down 5.97% to 5,074.08.
Photo by Igor Faun on Shutterstock
Read Next:&nbsp;
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/25/04/44620779/onlyfans-founders-startup-and-hbar-foundation-enter-the-race-to-acquire-tiktok-us-to-maintain-american-ownership-and-governance">OnlyFans Founder&#8217;s Startup And HBAR Foundation Enter Race To Acquire Tiktok To Maintain &#8216;American Ownership And Governance&#8217;</a></li>
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Coverage of Bitcoin, Etherum, Ripple and all the latest digital currencies.

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$SPX

SPX Bleeding In Trump Tariff Market Mayhem But Meme Coin Sharing Its Name Has Shot Up Nearly 18000% In A Year

Announces the commencement of a new share buyback program (the ‘Program') with share repurchases to be conducted in tranches that may be announced through May 2030. Repurchases under the first tranche of the Program, which is for up to 10 million shares, will commence immediately, under the authorization given by the annual general meeting of shareholders of 30 April 2024 and subsequently, if applicable, subject to approval at the annual general meeting to be held on 6 May 2025.

Buybacks

ArcelorMittal Announces 2025–2030 Share Buyback Program; First Tranche Of Up To 10M Shares Begins Immediately

RYTM

Reported Sunday, Rhythm Pharmaceuticals To Reveal Topline Results From Pivotal Phase 3 TRANSCEND Trial Of Setmelanotide In Acquired Hypothalamic Obesity

<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="900" height="600" src="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/07061857/Lianhe-Sowell-0407-01.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-9838" srcset="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/07061857/Lianhe-Sowell-0407-01.jpeg 900w,https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/07061857/Lianhe-Sowell-0407-01-300x200.jpeg 300w,https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/07061857/Lianhe-Sowell-0407-01-768x512.jpeg 768w" sizes="(max-width: 900px) 100vw, 900px" /></figure>
The machine vision company's shares tumbled on their second trading day last Friday, as it searches for a formula to jumpstart its stalling growth
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Key Takeaways:</h4>
<ul>
<li>Lianhe Sowell's shares rose on their trading debut last Thursday, but tumbled the next day amid a broader market selloff on fears of a global trade war</li>
<li>The machine vision company's recent rapid revenue growth came to a sudden halt in its latest reporting period</li>
</ul>
Talk about bad timing.
Machine vision company&nbsp;Lianhe Sowell International Group Ltd.&nbsp;(LHSW.US) made its U.S. trading debut into some of the worst headwinds in years, launching its newly Nasdaq-listed stock last Thursday. The shares seemed to defy the tanking markets around it, briefly more than doubling from their&nbsp;<a href="https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2025/04/04/3056062/0/en/Lianhe-Sowell-International-Group-Ltd-Announces-Closing-of-Initial-Public-Offering.html">IPO price of $4&nbsp;</a>before closing up by a respectable 7.3% at $4.29.
But then reality caught up with the company on its second trading day last Friday, as the broader market continued to tank on concerns about coming chaos from Donald Trump's newly announced tariffs on most U.S. trading partners. Lianhe Sowell's shares led that charge downward by plunging 32% their second day to end at $2.92.
It's no huge surprise that this company's stock has been so volatile, as it's quite small and its float was also small, equal to just 3.8% of its outstanding shares. What's more, Lianhe Sowell's' astonishing growth that may have impressed investors when it&nbsp;<a href="https://thebambooworks.com/lianhe-sowell-eyes-big-potential-for-machine-vision-ai-with-u-s-ipo-plan/">first filed to list</a>&nbsp;in May last year suddenly stopped in the six months to last September, the first half of the company's fiscal year, according to its latest&nbsp;<a href="https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2004024/000101376225001647/ea0200138-17.htm#T25">updated prospectus</a>.
Lianhe Sowell's story looks both encouraging but also has factors that could limit its potential. Unlike other companies machine vision companies, which are largely reliant government customers, Lianhe Sowell sells its machines and software to other companies. That's an important difference, as governments across China are reining in their spending lately due to their large debt loads.
By comparison, the manufacturers that make up Lianhe Sowell's customer base may actually be ramping up spending as Beijing offers incentives to upgrade their facilities as a form of economic stimulus. The company makes products that can be used by manufacturers for things like identifying defective products on assembly lines and automatically capturing the identification numbers on containers entering and leaving a port.
That said, Lianhe Sowell's biggest drawback is the high degree of customization needed for its products, which means it's harder to scale up its operation.
As we've already noted, Lianhe Sowell is quite small, which is reflected in the relatively modest $8 million it raised in its IPO. The company had just 30 full-time employees at the end of March last year, though we should note that figure was up by 50% from the 20 it had just a year before and just 16 in March 2022. Presumably it may try to beef up its workforce even more with its modest IPO proceeds, which it plans to use to build up the business.
Even after the Friday share selloff, Lianhe Sowell's stock still trades at a relatively high price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 61, which isn't unusual for this kind of newly listed Chinese company on Wall Street. Its price-to-sales (P/S) ratio is a little more realistic at 4.14, well behind the 12.8 for much larger peer&nbsp;SenseTime&nbsp;(0020.HK) and 30.8 for&nbsp;CloudWalk&nbsp;(688327.SH), another machine vision company.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Stalled growth</h4>
While Lianhe Sowell is much smaller than SenseTime and CloudWalk, it underwent a brief period of explosive growth starting in its fiscal year through March 2023 as it rolled out new products and picked up customers. The company's revenue shot up to $13.1 million in the 12 months through March 2023 from just $950,000 the previous year. That growth then continued in the next fiscal year, with revenue nearly tripling year-on-year to $36.6 million in the 12 months to March 2024.
But then the growth suddenly ground to a halt. Lianhe Sowell said its revenue in the six months to September last year totaled $16.9 million, up by less than 1% from $16.8 million a year earlier. It didn't provide a clear reason for the sudden slowdown, but a closer look at its prospectus shows the company is limited by its ability to only serve a small group of customers at any given time.
Its customer turnover is also quite large, indicating most of its customers purchase the company's products and then fail to return for more. That's not too unusual for such a small company like Lianhe Sowell, whose product portfolio is quite small and thus has limited products to sell to its customers. But it also deprives it of repeat business, which is important for any growing company.
Lianhe Sowell's prospectus shows it derived 85% of its revenue from just six customers in the six months to September 2024, with the top three supplying about 70% of the total. What's more, two of the company's top customers in the year-ago period, which supplied a combined 30% of its revenue for that time, were no longer major customers a year later. This shows Lianhe Sowell is attracting major new customers, which is always a good sign, but only fast enough to replace customers it is losing.
All this means the company may have a good product, but needs to boost its team to serve more companies from its large potential customer base if it wants to continue growing. It probably needs to standardize its products more also if it wants to achieve the scale it needs to make it into the big leagues.
Reflecting the current awkwardness in its growth phase, Lianhe Sowell's gross margin in the six months to last September fell by nearly 2 percentage points to 21.2% from 22.9% a year earlier – the opposite of what you would expect from a growing company. The company attributed the decline to its efforts to obtain more customers for its newer software business, which grew 16% in the six-month period to make up 22% of its revenue from 19% a year earlier. By comparison, sales for its older hardware business fell 3% during the six months.
Despite all of its issues, Lianhe Sowell is profitable, though its net income fell to $1.25 million in the six months through last September from $1.58 million a year earlier. At the end of the day, buyers of the company's stock should probably expect more volatility in its first few trading months, especially as the global trade war heats up. They should also watch closely to see if Lianhe Sowell can restart its growth by boosting its team and standardizing its products. If it can, the company could offer some strong potential over the next few years.

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Is This Nasdaq Debutant A Buy After Sharp Sell-off On Day 2 Of Listing?

<ul>
<li>Q1 2025 preliminary net sales rise 7% CER and adjusted diluted EPS results of at least $0.55 CER both above outlook despite challenging macro environment</li>
<li>Full-year 2025 adjusted diluted EPS outlook raised to about $2.35 CER (prior outlook about $2.28 CER)</li>
<li>On track to exceed 31% CER adjusted operating income margin ahead of 2028 mid-term target</li>
</ul>

QGEN

Reported Sunday, QIAGEN Preliminary Q1 2025 Revenue ~$483M And Expects Adj. EPS Of At least $0.55 (Vs. $0.56 Est.); Raised 2025 EPS Target To ~$2.35 (Vs. $2.48 Est.) From Prior $2.28

The Donald Trump administration and the Federal Reserve are signaling a lack of relief amid escalating trade tensions and policy uncertainty. Experts warn that this could further drive the markets lower.
What Happened: According to Craig Shapiro from 3-Circle Investments by The Bear Traps Report, the absence of this perceived &#8220;Trump put&#8221; or &#8220;Fed put&#8221; could trigger a swift and significant market downturn.
&#8220;The market has been searching for a Trump put or a Fed put and was informed this past week that both puts are struck lower,&#8221; Shapiro noted in his analysis. He believes the Fed will only intervene when financial stability is threatened, specifically if the U.S. Treasury market begins to dysfunction.
Speaking on Friday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that the Fed&#8217;s priority remains achieving its dual mandate of maximum employment and stable prices. 
While acknowledging that the economy is &#8220;still in a good place,&#8221; he stated that the Fed is closely monitoring the economic impact of new policies, particularly trade.
&#8220;It is too soon to say what will be the appropriate path for monetary policy,&#8221; Powell stated, highlighting the potential inflationary impact of tariffs, stating, &#8220;Looking ahead, higher tariffs will be working their way through our economy and are likely to raise inflation in coming quarters.&#8221;
&#8220;So that leaves the Trump put and him walking back from this trade agenda. So soon after he implemented in last week would seem incredibly weak for a man that rarely ever admits he was wrong,&#8221; adds Shapiro.
See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/25/04/44656946/donald-trump-says-market-is-going-to-boom-claiming-6-7-trillion-worth-of-inflows-will-come-after-the">Donald Trump Says &#8216;Market Is Going To Boom,&#8217; Claiming &#8216;$6-7 Trillion&#8217; Worth Of Inflows Will Come After The Worst Selloff Since 2020</a>
Why It Matters: Jon Keidan, Founder &amp; Managing Partner of Torch Capital, echoed concerns about the long-term consequences of these tariffs.
He warned that the resulting volatility forces companies to &#8220;calculate worst-case scenarios,&#8221; impacting capital allocation, investment decisions, and overall business planning. This, Keidan argues, will lead to a &#8220;big corporate slowdown,&#8221; potentially causing demand-supply imbalances even if trade issues are resolved quickly.
Shapiro concluded his note with a stark warning: &#8220;All this being said, the lack of the &#8216;put&#8217; for now means I think we are going to go significantly lower very quickly until UsT market dysfunction starts and the Fed says &#8216;no mas&#8217; because this will eventually bleed into economic activity and exacerbate the slowdown.&#8221;
Price Action: By Friday&#8217;s close, the S&amp;P 500 was on the brink of a bear market, having fallen 17.46% from its record peak of 6,147.43 points. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was also significantly down, shedding 14.99% from its 52-week high of 45,073.63 points. The Nasdaq 100, already in bear market territory, had declined by 21.71% from its high of 22,222.61 points.
The SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>), which track the S&amp;P 500 index and Nasdaq 100 index, respectively, slumped on Monday. The SPY was down 5.85% to $505.28, while the QQQ declined 6.21% to $422.67, according to <a href="https://pro.benzinga.com/dashboard">Benzinga Pro</a> data.
As of Monday, the futures of Dow Jones were lower by 3.05%, whereas S&amp;P 500 dropped 3.98% and the Nasdaq 100 declined by 5.00%.
Read Next:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/04/44644834/recession-imminent-analyst-flags-60-market-crash-risk-under-worst-tariff-scenario">Recession Imminent? Analyst Flags 60% Market Crash Risk Under Worst Tariff Scenario: &#8216;It&#8217;s Messy&#8217;</a></li>
</ul>
Photo courtesy: Federal Reserve

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Lack Of 'Trump Put' Could Drive Market Lower 'Very Quickly,' Says Expert, As Fed Chair Jerome Powell Stands Ground On Rate Cuts

World's largest cruise company's newbuild pipeline includes eight&nbsp;new ships scheduled to enter service between 2025 and 2033
Multi-fuel-capable engines will provide new ships flexibility to operate using a&nbsp;range of fuel types, including low- and no-carbon bio and synthetic fuels when available at scale

Carnival Expands Newbuild Pipeline With Two Next-Generation AIDA Ships Featuring Multi-Fuel Propulsion, Deliveries Slated For 2030 and 2032

Reported Sunday, Carnival Cruise Line Unveils Expansion Strategy With Carnival Festival, New Destinations, And Fleet Innovations

Ki Corporation and Public Storage announced day the submittal of a non-binding indicative offer (NBIO) to acquire all of the outstanding stapled securities of Abacus Storage King that are not already held by Ki or its subsidiaries (together, the "Ki Group") for A$1.47 per stapled security. The Ki Group is currently ASK's major securityholder and each of Ki and Public Storage would have approximately 50% interest following the transaction.

ABACUS STORAGE KING by ABACUS STORAGE KING

ABSKF

Reported Sunday, Ki Corporation And Public Storage Submit A$1.47 Per Share Offer To Acquire Abacus Storage King

Macro Economic Events

Econ #s

Germany Trade Balance For February 17.7B Vs. 18.4B Est.; 16.2B (Revised) Prior

Germany Industrial Production (MoM) For February -1.3% Vs. -0.9% Est.; 2.0% Prior

<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="936" height="556" src="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/07061618/image-1.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-9835" srcset="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/07061618/image-1.jpeg 936w,https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/07061618/image-1-300x178.jpeg 300w,https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/07061618/image-1-768x456.jpeg 768w" sizes="(max-width: 936px) 100vw, 936px" /></figure>
<a href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fef1fda4a-e58e-43ae-93d8-5b12ae44ecaf_1024x608.png" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener"></a>
It's been a challenging few days.
There's been a mountain of news about the direction of&nbsp;<a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/04/regulating-imports-with-a-reciprocal-tariff-to-rectify-trade-practices-that-contribute-to-large-and-persistent-annual-united-states-goods-trade-deficits/">global trade policy</a>, which has been followed by a tsunami of research and insights intended to help investors make sense of it all.
I've spent a ton of time sifting through much of it, and I've concluded: It is impossible to know what will happen next.
While&nbsp;<a href="https://www.tker.co/p/wall-street-agrees-tariffs-are-bad">everyone agrees</a>&nbsp;that the announced tariffs are negative at least in the near-term, the range of potential outcomes is very wide and impossible to define precisely. Not only are the indirect effects hard to capture, the uncertainty is heightened by the possibility that at least some of the tariffs are short-lived or negotiated lower.
Consequently, I'd caution against listening to folks who have a high degree of confidence in the particular outcome they're touting. There are just too many unknowns to be able to model a clean forecast.
A couple of analysts I follow had some particularly insightful commentary on the murky state of things.
"There is no tariff playbook," BofA's Savita Subramanian wrote on Thursday. "Known unknowns are plentiful." From her note:
Investors looking for historical parallels are faced with scant observations from incomparable eras (e.g., 1930s Smoot Hawley ended badly). Import/export exposure by company is difficult to estimate and not regularly disclosed. Full supply chains are hard to figure out. Secondary impacts are even hazier: prolonged negotiations could stall activity spiraling into a recession. Calls to boycott U.S. goods could ramp further. But pricing power and currency moves can mollify tariff impacts. Ex-U.S. multinationals can avoid tariffs (and maybe enjoy lower corporate tax rates) by expanding U.S. footprint. Our constructive equity outlook relies on at least partial resolution from which corporates can plan and grow by early 2H25, as capacity buildouts are multi-quarter phenomena.
Among the many challenges in analyzing the impact on the stock market is the fact that regulations don't require publicly-traded companies to disclose many details about their overseas exposure. This is something I've mentioned in past discussions about&nbsp;<a href="https://www.tker.co/p/us-listed-companies-share-of-global-profits">S&amp;P 500 revenues generated outside of the U.S.</a>
To Subramanian's point about boycotts,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.tker.co/p/boycott-america-gdp-stock-market-negative-impact">earlier this week</a>&nbsp;Goldman Sachs economists also highlighted the challenges in estimating the magnitude of this second order effect.
Subramanian estimates that the impact of tariffs could drag S&amp;P 500 earnings per share (EPS) by 5% to 32%. Yes, that's a wide range. And even she acknowledges that it's derived from an "oversimplified scenario analysis."
On&nbsp;<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/audio/2025-04-04/bloomberg-surveillance-jobs-and-tariffs-podcast">Bloomberg Radio on Friday</a>, Renaissance Macro's Neil Dutta addressed the shock to GDP that economists have been estimating as a result of the announced tariffs. He too cautioned: "These calculations understate the hit to some extent, because you're just looking at direct costs. You're not including, ‘What are the ramifications to corporate confidence? Household confidence?' The spillover and knock-on effects. I think that's why I think it can be even worse."
In terms of modeling how the ongoing trade war will unfold, Dutta added: "We're all just guessing at this point."
Oaktree Capital's Howard Marks, also speaking to Bloomberg on Friday,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/audio/2025-04-04/bloomberg-talks-howard-marks-talks-market-selloff-podcast">said</a>: "The world economy and the world order beyond the economy — meaning geopolitics and international relationships — has been shook up like a snow globe by the events of the last days, and nobody knows what it&#8217;s going to look like."<a href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4e66fe10-8fe0-4cbd-a67c-22ea11dd7d48_782x436.png" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener"></a>
<a href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4e66fe10-8fe0-4cbd-a67c-22ea11dd7d48_782x436.png" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener"></a>"Today, whatever your forecast may be, you have to say the probability that I&#8217;m right is lower than ever," Marks added. "Because the probability that we know what the future is going to look like is lower than ever."
While uncertainty and market volatility may be elevated in the near term, experts generally agree that stocks continue to be attractive for long-term investors. It's just that the near future has become very difficult to predict.
It's times like these where the best move is to&nbsp;<a href="https://www.tker.co/p/sam-ro-unlucky-market-timer">stick to your financial plan</a>, which hopefully takes into consideration periods of high volatility and uncertainty.
Watch earnings season &#x1f440;
If there's any good news, the first quarter just ended. This means we'll soon be in earnings season, when companies will give more color on what they see and where they expect things to head.
This could be productive, because so far we haven't heard much about&nbsp;<a href="https://www.tker.co/i/156333109/tariffs-are-not-factored-into-earnings-guidance">how tariffs may impact earnings</a>. Here's what RBC's Lori Calvasina had to say in her research note on Wednesday:
We&#8217;ve been reading earnings call and conference transcripts closely since November across market capitalizations, sectors, and industries and feel fairly confident in saying that U.S. public companies have been very reluctant to discuss tariff impacts (outside of China) until specific details have been provided by the administration, and even then, many still have not given sell-side analysts a lot of specifics to start factoring into their models. The incremental information provided Wednesday (we hope) will enable sell-side analysts to push companies a bit harder to get the conversation going about these policies. This is important, because for U.S. equities to put in a durable bottom, EPS forecasts need to be adjusted which in turn will give investors confidence to assess valuations and make decisions about when opportunity has been unlocked in certain corners of the U.S. equity market.
"Like most analysts and strategists, we&#8217;ll be digesting the implications of the newly announced reciprocal tariffs in the coming days," Calvasina wrote.
All eyes and ears will be on Corporate America in the coming weeks as earnings season picks up.
Will we get&nbsp;<a href="https://www.tker.co/p/sp500-earnings-guidance-q1-2025">more clarity</a>? Or will we learn they have no clue where things are headed either?
As always,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.tker.co/p/stock-market-drawdowns-bull-markets">keep your stock market seat belts fastened</a>. Investing in the stock market is&nbsp;<a href="https://www.tker.co/p/stock-market-down-days-drawdowns-down-years-normal">an unpleasant process</a>.
More insights from Sam Ro:
<ul>
<li>One Of The Most <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/03/44361076/one-of-the-most-misunderstood-moments-in-stock-market-cycles">Misunderstood </a>Moments In Stock Market Cycles</li>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/03/44079509/preparing-for-worse-doesnt-mean-dumping-stocks-investing-wisdom-from-market-guru-sam-ro">Preparing</a> For Worse Doesn't Mean Dumping Stocks</li>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/exclusives/25/02/43917155/warren-buffett-americas-businesses-usually-find-a-way">Warren Buffett</a>: America&#8217;s Businesses &#8216;Usually Find A Way&#8217;</li>
</ul>
&#x2A;&#x2A;

Long Ideas

Broad U.S. Equity ETFs

Sam Ro: If You Know Where Things Are Heading, Then You Probably Don't Know What You're Talking About

U.K. Halifax House Price Index (YoY) For March 2.8% Vs. 2.8% (Revised) Prior

U.K. Halifax House Price Index (MoM) For March -0.5% Vs. 0.2% Est.; -0.2% (Revised) Prior

The S&amp;P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average indices appear to be tracing a concerning pattern of consecutive steep declines, a phenomenon last witnessed during the Great Depression.
What Happened: According to the historical data shared by analysts, both the key indices have triggered a rare sell-off signal.
Ryan Detrick, the chief market strategist of Carson Research, highlighted in an X post that if the S&amp;P 500 closes down by 4% on Monday, it would mark the third consecutive day of a 4% or greater decline. He states that this has only happened three times in history, all during the Great Depression.
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">Should the S&amp;P 500 close down 4% tomorrow, that would be three days in a row it was down at least 4%. That has only happened three times in history and all were during the Great Depression. <a href="https://t.co/jEIsgoMl49">pic.twitter.com/jEIsgoMl49</a>
&mdash; Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) <a href="https://twitter.com/RyanDetrick/status/1909077635960832211?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 7, 2025</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></div>
</figure>
Similarly, Jason Goepfert, a consultant at White Oak Consultancy LLC, notes that futures indicate a loss greater than 3% for the Dow Jones. If this occurs, it would also be the third consecutive loss greater than 3%, which has only happened four times during the Great Depression.
The Sentimentrader graph provides a glimpse into the Dow&#8217;s performance following these historical &#8220;signal dates.&#8221; The data reveal a mixed bag of outcomes over the subsequent weeks and months, underscoring the uncertainty, even after such historically significant events. Returns ranged from substantial gains to significant losses across various timeframes.
<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"> 
<div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">Futures indicate another loss in the Dow Industrials greater than -3%. Futures are finicky, but that&#39;d be its 3rd consecutive loss greater than -3%. Since 1896 &#8211; 129 years of history &#8211; this only occurred during the Great Depression. <a href="https://t.co/egAOcqLBC0">pic.twitter.com/egAOcqLBC0</a>
&mdash; Jason Goepfert (@jasongoepfert) <a href="https://twitter.com/jasongoepfert/status/1909042602210423192?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 7, 2025</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></div>
</figure>
See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/04/44644834/recession-imminent-analyst-flags-60-market-crash-risk-under-worst-tariff-scenario">Recession Imminent? Analyst Flags 60% Market Crash Risk Under Worst Tariff Scenario: &#8216;It&#8217;s Messy&#8217;</a>
Why It Matters: As of Friday, the S&amp;P 500 was nearing the bear market zone as it closed 17.46% lower than its previous record high of 6,147.43 points. Dow was 14.99% down from its 52-week high of 45,073.63 points, whereas the Nasdaq 100 was already in the bear market territory, 21.71% lower from its high of 22,222.61 points.
The catalyst for this dramatic market selloff was President Donald Trump&#8216;s sweeping new tariffs on imports from U.S. trading partners, introduced on Wednesday after market close. This triggered a crash on Thursday and Friday, when China announced its retaliatory measures.
The magnitude of these consecutive drops has drawn stark comparisons to the Great Depression, a period marked by severe economic contraction, widespread unemployment, and a catastrophic stock market crash.
As of Monday, the futures of Dow Jones were lower by 2.68%, whereas S&amp;P 500 dropped 3.50% and the Nasdaq 100 declined by 4.44%.
Price Action: The SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>), which track the S&amp;P 500 index and Nasdaq 100 index, respectively, slumped on Monday. The SPY was down 5.85% to $505.28, while the QQQ declined 6.21% to $422.67, according to <a href="https://pro.benzinga.com/dashboard">Benzinga Pro</a> data.
Read Next:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/25/04/44656946/donald-trump-says-market-is-going-to-boom-claiming-6-7-trillion-worth-of-inflows-will-come-after-the">Donald Trump Says &#8216;Market Is Going To Boom,&#8217; Claiming &#8216;$6-7 Trillion&#8217; Worth Of Inflows Will Come After The Worst Selloff Since 2020</a></li>
</ul>
Photo courtesy: Shutterstock

S&P 500, Dow Jones On Course To Mimic Rare Consecutive Losses Not Seen Since The Great Depression: What's Driving the Fear?

Amid a historic market selloff that has erased <a href="https://in.benzinga.com/25/04/44646615/donald-trump-predicts-a-market-boom-with-6-7-trillion-in-inflows-after-the-selloff-elon-musk-mark-zuckerberg-and-jensen-huang-lost-34-billion-in-a-single-day-eric-trump-suggested-buying-bitcoin-below-90000-but-it-hasnt-surgedcan-it-recover-top-headlines-while-the-us-slept">approximately $6 trillion in U.S. market value</a>, renowned fixed income investor Jeff Gundlach suggests the Federal Reserve&#8217;s current policy stance is too restrictive. However, he doesn&#8217;t anticipate immediate rate cuts.
What Happened: Gundlach, widely known as the &#8220;Bond King,&#8221; noted Monday that the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield has dropped to exactly 3.5%, implying that markets currently view the Federal Reserve's benchmark rate as "at least 75 basis points too high." 
However, Gundlach cautioned that rate cuts are unlikely in the near term, adding, "I do not see a single cut any time soon, unless the losses in risk assets greatly increase."
Gundlach&#8217;s comments come as the U.S. 2-Year Treasury yield fell to 3.541%, down 3.51%, while the 10-Year yield decreased to 3.934%, down 1.43%.
As of Monday, the CME FedWatch Tool <a href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html">shows</a> a 52.1% probability of a 25 bps rate cut at the May 7 Federal Open Market Committee meeting, lowering the target rate to 400–425 bps. However, there&#8217;s still a 47.9% chance the rate remains unchanged at 425–450 bps.
The bond market signals coincide with a deepening global market rout triggered by President Donald Trump&#8216;s sweeping new tariff policies. U.S. stock futures extended losses Sunday evening, with Dow futures plunging over 1,000 points, or 3.26%, while S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq futures <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/04/44659686/stock-futures-tank-dow-sheds-over-1000-points-as-white-house-remains-firm-on-tariffs-trump-says-sometimes-you-have-to-take-medicine">tumbled 3.73% and 4.60% respectively</a>.
Asian markets <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/04/44660089/japans-nikkei-futures-halted-hang-seng-crashes-8-8-as-global-market-rout-accelerates-on-tariff-shock-analyst-says-trumps-iphone-only-real-circuit-breaker">reflected similar distress</a>, with Japan&#8217;s Nikkei briefly triggering circuit breakers after futures fell more than 8%. Hong Kong&#8217;s Hang Seng crashed 8.81%.
<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"> 
<div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">The 2 year UST yield now sits at exactly 3.5%, suggesting the Fed Funds rate is at least for now viewed to be 75 basis points too high. Yet I do not see a single cut any time soon, unless the losses in risk assets greatly increase.
&mdash; Jeffrey Gundlach (@TruthGundlach) <a href="https://twitter.com/TruthGundlach/status/1909048752847089976?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 7, 2025</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></div>
</figure>
See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/04/44659521/bill-ackman-warns-against-launching-economic-nuclear-war-wants-a-90-day-time-out-on-trump-tariffs">Bill Ackman Warns Against Launching &#8216;Economic Nuclear War,&#8217; Wants A 90-Day Time Out On Trump Tariffs</a>
Why It Matters: Despite mounting market pressure, the White House has remained <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/04/44659686/stock-futures-tank-dow-sheds-over-1000-points-as-white-house-remains-firm-on-tariffs-trump-says-sometimes-you-have-to-take-medicine">firm on its tariff strategy</a>. &#8220;I don&#8217;t want anything to go down, but sometimes you have to take medicine to fix something,&#8221; Trump said Sunday.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent attributed the <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/04/44659686/stock-futures-tank-dow-sheds-over-1000-points-as-white-house-remains-firm-on-tariffs-trump-says-sometimes-you-have-to-take-medicine">selloff to tech valuations rather than administration policy</a>, calling it &#8220;more a MAG 7 problem than a MAGA one,&#8221; referring to market leaders including Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>), NVIDIA Corp. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>), and Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>).
Fed Chair Jerome Powell has emphasized <a href="https://in.benzinga.com/government/regulations/25/04/44648681/powell-cites-tariff-driven-inflation-risks-shrugs-off-trumps-call-for-perfect-time-to-cut-rates">caution regarding rate cuts</a> despite market turmoil, stating the Fed does not need to be in a hurry while warning that Trump&#8217;s tariff package could raise inflation.
Venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya suggested traditional <a href="https://in.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/04/44660335/chamath-palihapitiya-warns-fed-and-trump-may-no-longer-rescue-markets-as-bottom-50-of-americans-have-zero-interest-in-stocks">market rescue mechanisms may no longer be politically viable</a>, noting &#8220;the bottom 50% of Americans have zero interest in the stock market.&#8221;
Read Next: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/04/44660141/odds-of-recession-federal-reserves-emergency-rate-cuts-soar-on-crypto-based-polymarket-as-tariff-fears-pummel-markets">Odds Of 2025 Recession Soar Above 60% On Crypto-Based Polymarket As Tariff Fears Pummel Markets, Bettors Root For Emergency Rate Cut</a></li>
</ul>
Image via Shutterstock
Disclaimer:&nbsp;This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.

Bonds

AAPL

MSFT

NVDA

'Bond King' Jeff Gundlach Says Fed Rate Is 'Too High' By 75 Bps, But Warns Cuts Unlikely Without Sharper Risk Asset Losses

Under the transaction, Stonepeak will provide $5.7 billion towards the expected capital expenditure for the foundation development of Louisiana LNG on an accelerated basis, contributing 75% of project capital expenditure in both 2025 and 2026. This enhances the project economics and Woodside's cash flow profile ahead of revenues from Woodside's Scarborough Energy Project in Australia, strengthening the capacity for shareholder returns. The remainder of Stonepeak's committed capital will be funded in subsequent years.

Reported Sunday, Woodside Offloads 40% Stake In Louisiana LNG To Stonepeak In $5.7B Deal, Validating Project Value And Attracting Global Interest

<figure class="wp-block-image aligncenter size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="582" src="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/05221731/Animated-1987-1024x582.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-9785" srcset="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/05221731/Animated-1987-1024x582.jpg 1024w,https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/05221731/Animated-1987-300x171.jpg 300w,https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/05221731/Animated-1987-768x436.jpg 768w,https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/05221731/Animated-1987.jpg 1200w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">You Just Survived The 16th-Worst 2-Day Period For Stocks</h2>
According to Michael McDonough, Thursday and Friday were the 16th worst 2-day period for the S&amp;P 500 in history.&nbsp;
<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"> 
<div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">If my math is right, we just had the 16th worst 2‑day performance in the S&amp;P 500 in history: Top 25 Largest 2‑Day Declines: 1987‑10‑19: -24.57% 1929‑10‑29: -21.78% 1933‑07‑21: -16.81% 1987‑10‑20: -16.23% 1929‑11‑06: -14.66% 2020‑03‑12: -13.93% 1932‑10‑10: -13.59% 1933‑07‑20:…
&mdash; Michael McDonough (@M_McDonough) <a href="https://twitter.com/M_McDonough/status/1908265533230747690?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 4, 2025</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></div>
</figure>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Some Of You Did More Than Survive</h2>
If you&#8217;re reading this, you survived. And if you followed our suggestions this week&#8211;to <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/03/44562306/are-we-heading-into-a-bear-market">raise </a>cash and hedge on Monday&#8230;
<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"> 
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true"><a href="https://t.co/q7rnVWN3hA">https://t.co/q7rnVWN3hA</a>
&mdash; Portfolio Armor (@PortfolioArmor) <a href="https://twitter.com/PortfolioArmor/status/1906521233518125227?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 31, 2025</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></div>
</figure>
To enter <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/04/44607209/betting-on-both-outcomes-a-liberation-day-gameplan">binary trades</a> on Tuesday&#8230;
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">(Max losses on both trades are 100%, which would occur if our two stocks end the week flat from here.)<a href="https://t.co/4SP9hoRYzy">https://t.co/4SP9hoRYzy</a>
&mdash; Portfolio Armor (@PortfolioArmor) <a href="https://twitter.com/PortfolioArmor/status/1907096366779687239?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 1, 2025</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></div>
</figure>
And to&nbsp;<a href="https://portfolioarmor.substack.com/p/trade-alert-adding-short-exposure">add short exposure</a>&nbsp;on Wednesday&#8230;
<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"> 
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true"><a href="https://t.co/0At9cbQEeE">https://t.co/0At9cbQEeE</a>
&mdash; Portfolio Armor (@PortfolioArmor) <a href="https://twitter.com/PortfolioArmor/status/1907505190971883920?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 2, 2025</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></div>
</figure>
You thrived.&nbsp;
<ol>
<li>Credit put spread on&nbsp;Spotify Technology, S.A.&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPOT#NYSE">SPOT</a>). Entered at a net credit of $8 on&nbsp;<a href="https://portfolioarmor.substack.com/p/trade-alert-liberation-day">4/1/2025</a>; this is still open, but looks like we'll exit at a net debit of $10 on 4/4/2025.&nbsp;Loss: 100%.</li>
<li>Calls on Spotify (<a href="https://substack.com/discover/stocks/SPOT" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">SPOT 0.00%↑</a>). Bought for $1.67 on 4/1/2025; sold (second half) for $4 on 4/3/2025. Profit: 2%</li>
<li>Puts on Arm Holdings, Plc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ARM#NASDAQ">ARM</a>). Bought for $1.82 on 4/2/2025; sold (half) for $4 on 4/3/2025. Profit: 120%.</li>
<li>Calls on Broadcom, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AVGO#NASDAQ">AVGO</a>). Bought for $1.74 on 4/2/2025; sold (half) for $4 on 4/3/2025. Profit: 130%.</li>
<li>Calls on Spotify (SPOT 0.00%↑). Bought for $1.67 on 4/1/2025; sold (half) for $4 on 4/2/2025. Profit: 140%.</li>
<li>Credit call spread on Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>). Entered at a net credit of $7.50 on 4/1/2025; exited at a net debit of $0.20 on 4/4/2025. Profit: 292%.</li>
<li>Puts on Nvidia, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>). Bought for $1.17 on 4/2/2025; sold (half) for $5.80 on 4/4/2025. Profit: 396%.</li>
</ol>
Although you took a bath on our bullish binary trade, the credit put spread on Spotify, you made money on everything else.&nbsp;
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">What If The Worst Two-Day Period Is Ahead Of Us?&nbsp;</h2>
The worst two-day period for the S&amp;P 500 happened in 1987. What if something that bad&#8211;or worse&#8211;happens again? In the guest post below, our friend David Janello, PhD, CFA, has a suggestion for how you can protect against that.&nbsp;
Dr. Janello is the founder of SpreadHunter, and the author of The Nuclear Option: Trading To Win With Options Momentum Strategies.
<figure class="wp-block-image aligncenter size-full"><a href="https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0C87VC47C?ref_=cm_sw_r_ffobk_cp_ud_dp_JXCJEQK0686P75VWB8M6_1&amp;peakEvent=1&amp;dealEvent=0&amp;starsLeft=1&amp;skipTwisterOG=1&amp;bestFormat=true"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="500" height="737" src="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/05222908/Nuclear.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-9786" srcset="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/05222908/Nuclear.jpg 500w,https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/05222908/Nuclear-204x300.jpg 204w" sizes="(max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px" /></a></figure>
Authored by David Janello, PhD, CFA at Nuclear Options Trading.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Protecting Against A 1987-Style Crash</h2>
With the market continuing its relentless drive lower, there are a few outcomes that can unfold over the next week or two. Here are option trades (with fill prices) to capture extreme profits in one or more of these scenarios. But equally important, we look at trades to avoid because of poor pricing.
The most likely possibilities for the market in the near future are:
<ol>
<li>A sharp move higher, from extreme oversold conditions (no news)</li>
<li>A violent move higher, based on a truce in the ongoing trade war</li>
<li>A continuous move straight down for 30-90 days, like 2022</li>
<li>Or a violent move lower, on either no news or an acceleration in the trade war</li>
</ol>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">The More Likely Scenarios</h2>
In our opinion, Scenarios 1 and 2 are the most likely to occur. Unfortunately, the options pricing to capture these moves is extremely poor, which generates mediocre profits even if the forecast comes true.
Recall that we discussed the 2022 Scenario discussed in an earlier Nuclear Option Substack post, with an example bearish trade in TSLA that was profitable. And because of the potential for a violent move up (on tariff / trade war truce) we would avoid re-initiating this trade because of the extremely high risk.
The final scenario, a violent move lower, perhaps Monday at the open (like 1987) is the only scenario with decently priced spread trades.
Our favorite trade from this morning was this:
<ul>
<li>Long VIX Index 70-90 Call Vertical Spread Expiring April 16 at 0.20.</li>
</ul>
This trade risks 20- for a 2000- potential gain. Although it is a low probability trade, the potential profits more than make up for it. If we get a 1987 type crash on Monday morning, this is the trade have.
NOTE: You can only trade VIX Index Options and Complex Spreads on the CBOE Exchange.
Algorithmic Trades:
<ul>
<li>Visa (V) 255 Put 255 Strike Put Calendar Apr 17-Apr25 day traded for a 142% profit earlier. If you want to try to get more, set the max price at 0.07.</li>
<li>Exxon Mobil (XOM) 95 Strike Put Calendar Apr 17-25 day traded for 333% profit at the close</li>
</ul>
DISCLAIMER: All Content on the Nuclear Option Substack is for Education and Information Purposes only. It does not constitute a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell any security. Before trading, consult with your Professional Financial Advisor and read the booklet Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options Contracts, available from the Options Clearing Corporation.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">If You Just Want To Hedge</h2>
As a reminder, you can download the Portfolio Armor optimal hedging app by aiming your iPhone camera at the QR code below (or by&nbsp;<a href="https://apps.apple.com/us/app/portfolio-armor/id394951144">tapping here</a>, if you&#8217;re reading this on your phone). Our app can help you find the least expensive hedges given your risk tolerance and time frame.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><a href="https://apps.apple.com/us/app/portfolio-armor/id394951144"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="200" height="197" src="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/05223551/QR-Code-2.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-9787" /></a></figure>
And if you want a heads up when we place our next trade, you can subscribe to our trading Substack/occasional email list below.&nbsp;
If you&#8217;d like to stay in touch
You can subscribe to Dr. Janello&#8217;s Substack<a href="https://nuclearoptiontrading.substack.com/">&nbsp;here</a>.&nbsp;
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On Sunday, Ross Gerber, the CEO of Gerber Kawasaki Wealth &amp; Investment Management, shared a workaround to President Donald Trump's new tariffs on EU goods, revealing that U.S. consumers can avoid taxes by ordering items valued under $800 from the EU.
What Happened: Gerber highlighted an email from Swedish luxury shoemaker Morjas &amp; Company, which reassured U.S. customers that orders below $800 remain duty-free under current U.S. import regulations.
He shared this insight with his over 387,000 followers on X, formerly Twitter, writing, "Seems like if you order things in under $800 increments from the EU, then Trump can't tax you. Expect more of these emails from companies."
The email from Morjas explained that although the new tariffs have increased duties on EU products, the "de minimis rule" still applies to shipments under $800, meaning they remain exempt from additional duties or taxes.
&#8220;Steep tariffs on products from the European Union means that shipments above the 800 USD threshold may now be subject to higher import duties upon arrival in the U.S. The final amount depends on how customs classifies the products in your order,&#8221; the email read.
See Also:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/04/44645681/jpmorgan-raises-recession-risk-to-60-as-largest-us-tax-hike-in-60-years-hits-global-economy" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">JPMorgan Raises Recession Risk To 60% As ‘Largest US Tax Hike' In 60 Years Hits Global Economy</a>
Tariffs are direct taxes specifically applied to imported goods to protect domestic industries, while duties are indirect taxes imposed on consumers for both imported and domestic goods.
<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"> 
<div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">Seems like if you order things in under $800 increments from the EU, then Trump can't tax you. Expect more of these emails from Companies. <a href="https://t.co/DvB0nk8BPc">pic.twitter.com/DvB0nk8BPc</a>
&mdash; Ross Gerber (@GerberKawasaki) <a href="https://twitter.com/GerberKawasaki/status/1908963071584088237?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 6, 2025</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></div>
</figure>
Why It Matters: Trump's recent tariffs, <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/25/04/44621408/market-access-has-a-price-trump-unveils-list-of-tariffs-countries-targeted">part of his "reciprocal tariff" strategy</a>, have created significant concerns about rising costs for U.S. consumers.
Under the new policy, a 10% universal tariff on all imports will take effect on April 5, 2025, with additional duties targeting specific countries such as China, India, and members of the EU. Essential materials will be exempt from the tariffs.
Last week, <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/25/04/44640798/trump-ends-de-minimis-exemptions-shopify-bigcommerce-and-lightspeed-face-new-headwinds">Trump ended the de minimis exemption</a> for China and Hong Kong — a policy that previously allowed imports under $800 to enter the U.S. without tariffs.
The new order, which takes effect on May 2, 2025, comes amid Trump's accusations that Chinese shipping firms are exploiting loopholes and concerns over the influx of fentanyl from China.
U.S. Customs and Border Protection processes around four million de minimis shipments from China every day, allowing them into the country duty-free.
According to a White House fact sheet, these shipments will now be subject to a charge — either 30% of their value or $25 per item, with the rate increasing to $50 per item starting June 1.
Photo Courtesy: fizkes
Read Next:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/03/44309742/recession-watch-small-caps-sound-the-alarm-but-credit-markets-shrug" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Recession Watch: Small Caps Sound The Alarm, But Credit Markets Shrug</a></li>
</ul>
Disclaimer:&nbsp;This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.

Regulations

Trump's Tariff Worries? Ross Gerber Points Out Ordering EU Goods Under $800 Still Keeps You Tax-Free

LG Electronics Inc. (LG) today announced its preliminary earnings results for the first-quarter of 2025, reporting a consolidated revenue of KRW 22.7 trillion and operating profit of KRW 1.3 trillion.
This marks the first time LG's first-quarter revenue has exceeded KRW 22 trillion. Despite ongoing macroeconomic challenges, including a global economic slowdown, the company's focus on "qualitative growth" businesses played a key role.
Operating profit exceeded KRW 1 trillion for the sixth consecutive year, continuing to reflect a stable profit structure. Increased revenue from high-margin areas created a strong operating leverage effect, helping to sustain a stable profit structure. Additional drivers of profitability included efficient resource allocation, normalization of raw material and logistics costs, and enhanced agility in global production operations.
&nbsp;

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Reported Earlier, LG Electronics Announced Preliminary Q1 Revenue Of KRW 22.7T And Operating Profit Of KRW 1.3T

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